Latest / Cards & Categories / Ep. 29 : AL East Preview With Matt Frank

Transcript

Ep. 29 : AL East Preview With Matt Frank · Cards & Categories

• 0:16
  Hello, and welcome everybody to episode twenty nine of Cards and Categories. I
• 0:21
  am Mike Coolard of Rasball, joined as always by my great friend Jeremy Burr,
• 0:27
  also from Rasball. How you doing tonight? Doing very well? Is
• 0:31
  a fun night of baseball discussion. Lots of things happening in the baseball world,
• 0:37
  whether it's from a cards impact or a fantasy impact. It feels like
• 0:40
  the market's funny starting to fully unthaw, and lots of fun stuff happening for
• 0:46
  baseball. So I'm doing just fantastic. How about yourself? Yeah, me
• 0:50
  too. There's a lot of fodder to get through, and that's not even
• 0:54
  getting into our categories discussion. Today we have Matt Frank joining us, also
• 1:00
  known as Marmo's Dad at Rasball. He will be talking Al East with us,
• 1:06
  and there's a lot going on in the Al East, lots of good
• 1:08
  teams, lots of good options for fantasy, so we have a lively discussion
• 1:12
  coming up on those teams. But on top of that, it's been a
• 1:18
  crazy week of transactions since we last talked that. Just after posting the pod
• 1:25
  last week, you know, we had res Hoskins signing with the Brewers,
• 1:29
  and then things have been all over the place in terms of other signings.
• 1:34
  We also have David Robertson signing with the Rangers, Justin Turner signing with the
• 1:38
  Blue Jays, Jack Peterson going to the d Backs, Aaron Hicks going to
• 1:42
  the Angels. Then we've also got one trade that really has a big impact
• 1:49
  on the league. That's the Mariners trading for Jorge Polanco from the Twins.
• 1:55
  Then my favorite, honestly is it's not even like a new move. It's
• 1:59
  cold Keith signing an extension with the Tigers. All these have big fantasy impacts
• 2:05
  because you know they're starting to make some of those dominoes fall in terms of
• 2:08
  those remaining free agents between Cody Bellinger and Bike Snell and Jordan Montgomery are going
• 2:15
  to start finding homes here pretty soon, and you know spots are starting to
• 2:17
  dry up as well as teams are rounding into form. You know, we've
• 2:21
  got a few players in terms of like Hoskins and Robertson and Turner whose fantasy
• 2:27
  fortunes are really going to start turning around as they get drafted. So,
• 2:31
  Bruth, there's a lot to talk about there. Any transaction you want to
• 2:35
  hone in on first and really highlight. Yeah, I want to call out
• 2:39
  the Justin Turner signing with the Blue Jays. Okay, I'm really excited by
• 2:45
  this one. If you look over at roster resource, they have Justin Turner
• 2:49
  slotting into the clean up hole behind one Lad Camero, and that's a pretty,
• 2:54
  you know, pretty fun spot for him. He's probably have some good
• 2:58
  lineup protection as well. And you know, I know Justin Turner, he's
• 3:00
  thirty nine years old. He's he's kind of at that point. It's like,
• 3:02
  well, what's what's there to like about him? But he's just like
• 3:06
  been mister consistency for the last few years, and you know, it's it's
• 3:09
  not going to be a surprise to see him hit twenty twenty five home runs,
• 3:14
  have almost one hundred RBIs to seventy average. I mean the last three
• 3:20
  years he's at two seventy eight, two seventy eight, two seventy six.
• 3:23
  Like you kind of know what you're getting with the guy. And he's just
• 3:27
  been overall consistent. And if you you know, I think he's going to
• 3:30
  have eligibility at maybe two or three positions. Opinion what leaguere in he might
• 3:36
  have first, second, and third eligibility, So that's all really exciting,
• 3:40
  and at the end of the day, the price, the price is right.
• 3:44
  He's you know, his ADP right now is like in the two fifties
• 3:47
  somewhere in there, and so there's a lot to like. And I know
• 3:53
  we talk about veterans all the time, and I don't think there's probably much
• 3:57
  a better landing spot for for Justin Turner for a love that would put him
• 4:00
  smacked out in the middle. And you know, you expect that he's gonna
• 4:02
  play every single day and probably get some some rest through the DH as well.
• 4:09
  So I love him the Justin Turner signing with the Blue Jays. Yeah,
• 4:13
  I think that's a great call because he's just gonna have another year where
• 4:17
  he's forgotten because when people are in the draft room, they see the number
• 4:23
  next to his age and just go, h. You know that it's not
• 4:27
  somebody anybody has wanted for the past couple of years, and he's been a
• 4:30
  really free money at CI or third base or first base, wherever you need
• 4:34
  to plug him in that he provides average and counting stats. So I think
• 4:39
  it's a great move. You know, Boston was a good spot for him.
• 4:43
  Blue Jays are another great spot, so you know, staying in division,
• 4:46
  he knows what he's doing, and on top of it all, like
• 4:48
  the lineup is just as cushy as it was in Boston. So I mean,
• 4:53
  I think if you're looking for somebody late and you know, falling behind
• 4:58
  a batting average and maybe a little bit the power stats, he can really
• 5:01
  be a savior at the end of your draft. Now. I think it's
• 5:03
  been one of the few guys at to your point that says like can't have
• 5:06
  power with average like that. Usually the end of the draft you're like,
• 5:10
  I hope this guy can hit two forty with the with the power turner turn.
• 5:15
  Yeah, he's got the age penalty and the ADP which pounce on it.
• 5:18
  Yeah. And I mean, I think the other corner here that went
• 5:24
  in the bigger signing with the two year deal in Milwaukee, Reese Hoskins signing.
• 5:29
  I mean, you're only gonna see his ADP I think skyrocket at this
• 5:31
  point because it's a great landing spot. He should slot in for full time
• 5:35
  at bats in Milwaukee, which is feels weird saying, but they just don't
• 5:41
  have a really great platoon partner for him as well as like another good bat
• 5:46
  to support Yelich and the Dominis there and provide a little steadiness. You know,
• 5:50
  if they're going to bring up Cheerio, they're gonna need somebody who is
• 5:56
  a veteran and goat hits the field day and day out, you know,
• 6:00
  Hoskins. I'm looking at ADP data just for the month of January here,
• 6:03
  and he's going right around two hundred. But you can see the min pick
• 6:10
  starting to drop. It's at one forty six now, and I think that's
• 6:13
  probably closer to where he'll settle because you can almost set and forget thirty home
• 6:17
  runs, mid eighties runs, mid eighties RBI with two forty two fifty average
• 6:23
  that reys Hoskins is a is a pretty steady metronome for a corner for Space
• 6:28
  Player. Yeah, I think I think you're right. You know, he'll
• 6:30
  be interesting to see how much helium he gets, and you know, there's
• 6:33
  there's just not a lot of things to I think be that excited about from
• 6:36
  a hitting perspective in Milwaukee. St Sure, you've got Cheerio, you've got
• 6:41
  Yelich, but then you know, beyond that's you know, until you until
• 6:45
  you know exactly what's going to happen with like Tyler Black or somebody like that.
• 6:48
  Garrett Mitchell. There's not as much intrigue in that lineup, So I
• 6:54
  think Hoskins gives you some some fun things to look forward to. You know.
• 6:58
  The other transaction that I do want call out because we talked about this
• 7:00
  last week about the Rangers and how jose Cleric was the biggest beneficiary of the
• 7:06
  Robert Stevenson signing, the Josh Hader signing, and it couldn't have been more
• 7:11
  than what like twenty four hours that we talked about that, and here comes
• 7:14
  David Robertson. Here was more. It's like maybe seventy two week days.
• 7:17
  It felt it felt shorter, Yeah, right after we anointed jose Le Clerk
• 7:21
  as the closer finally, Yeah. And I think the worst part about that
• 7:27
  is like there's not clarity here either. It's like David Robinson doesn't come in
• 7:30
  as like he's gonna be the closer. They paid him like maybe he would,
• 7:33
  but I feel like we just launched right into a committee situation and whoever
• 7:39
  you draft your you're gonna be wrong type scenario. So that that David Robertson's
• 7:43
  signing. You know, as much as we to your point, we anointed
• 7:46
  jose Le Cleric as the closer in Texas. I think we have to backpittle
• 7:50
  that one to a degree, is that they finally did sign sign a reliever
• 7:56
  in David Robertson, even though he's getting up there a little bit in age
• 8:00
  at this point, I think they're gonna end up sharing and doing some mixing
• 8:03
  matching at the end of that bullpen. Yeah, I mean I would even
• 8:07
  go stronger and I would move that anointing of the closer crown over to Robertson,
• 8:13
  because if Robertson and Laclerk are in a closer share in Texas, that
• 8:18
  means Robertson is the closer. Because Bruce Bochi does not like the high wire
• 8:24
  act that jose Leclerk is with his walks, and you could see that during
• 8:28
  the playoff stretch that you know he felt like he was stuck using Leclerk as
• 8:33
  sometimes. You know that he really started leaning on Josh Spores a lot,
• 8:37
  and Laclerk is just I think too erratic for somebody old school like Bruce Bochie
• 8:43
  who wants somebody at the back of his pen that provides just day in,
• 8:50
  day out dependability, and that is not jose Leclerk. So right now in
• 8:54
  roster resource they're shown in a share, but I'd be drafting Robertson as the
• 9:00
  the main winner there because even if they are sharing to begin with, I
• 9:05
  don't see how jose Le Clerk gets through a blow up or two and still
• 9:09
  gets any shot and he saves down in Texas. Yeah, I think that.
• 9:13
  I think that's fairy. But at this point it's a bullpen I'm completely
• 9:16
  avoiding. Yeah, exactly right, for a lack of better terms. But
• 9:20
  I think the most more exciting thing is I want to know your thoughts on
• 9:24
  probably one of your favorite, you know, up and coming youngsters that signed
• 9:30
  a I wanst say surprising deal for an extension in Colt Keith. What are
• 9:37
  your thoughts on the Colt Keith deal and what that means for his prospect with
• 9:39
  the Tigers. I mean, I love it. I fell in love with
• 9:43
  Colt Keith last year as he rose to the ranks a lot because of I
• 9:48
  mean, obviously he hit the snot out of the ball, you know,
• 9:50
  with a one sixty three w RC plus at double a followed that up with
• 9:54
  a one nineteen w RC plus in Triple A, two hundred and seventy six
• 10:01
  and three hundred and one played appearances a piece at those levels, so he
• 10:05
  got real good chunks of time against upper level talent. He's only twenty one.
• 10:09
  That was his twenty at age twenty one season. All of the prospect
• 10:13
  reports are that this dude can hit. They all love the hit tool.
• 10:18
  The problem is he's gonna struggle a little bit finding a home between third base
• 10:22
  and second base, and you know, is a little stiff in the field.
• 10:24
  But I think the Tigers with this deal are saying, hey, Cold
• 10:30
  Keith, you're getting second base or third base, it's your job. Run
• 10:33
  with it. And what I love about his profile is, you know you
• 10:37
  can see the walk rates down in the low miners. You know, if
• 10:41
  they're good walk rates. You're sometimes unsure whether or not that dude actually has
• 10:46
  a good eye or if he's just spitting on junk, because it's a ball
• 10:52
  pitchers who can't find the strike zone. Cold Keith kept his eye all the
• 10:56
  way through the miners, and last year he had a nine point one per
• 11:00
  walk rate at Double A. Followed that up increased it to eleven point six
• 11:05
  at triple A. So these you know, that's a good I that says
• 11:11
  that he knows where the strike zone is. He's not a free swinger.
• 11:13
  You know. He had a roughly twenty percent strikeout rate between double A and
• 11:18
  triple A, So you're not talking about some guy who isn't has no control
• 11:24
  of the zone and is just hacking up there that. I think Colt Keith
• 11:28
  is a legit hitter, and I don't like Detroit too much, But when
• 11:33
  you're talking like a Dynasty asset here, I mean Colt Keith is way up
• 11:39
  there for me in terms of what he can be for you and keep her
• 11:43
  in Dynasty, mostly because that age, Like guys who come along and blow
• 11:46
  through the miners at this age usually turn out to be relatively special. Yeah.
• 11:52
  I think the only thing I don't like about the cold Keith deal is
• 11:54
  that it puts a highlight on Colt Keith. Yeah, exactly. I think
• 11:56
  that's the that's the one downfall here is that if you were already looking at
• 12:00
  cold Keith like there was a lot to like and you could pick him up
• 12:03
  for basically nothing at the end of the draft and just and just right off
• 12:05
  from the sunset. So I think this will put a little eyes on Cold
• 12:09
  Keith. I think the Detroit aspect will still keep the price reasonable because you
• 12:13
  know, it's everybody's like, I'm not really investing in the Tigers and not
• 12:16
  known for to be a you know, a fantasy factory by by any means.
• 12:20
  But yeah, I'm right there with you the Cold Keith. You know,
• 12:24
  you pointed him out last year, and I've I have to agree with
• 12:26
  you. Yeah, I mean I almost made him my buy for our Ale
• 12:30
  Central preview, and now I wish I could kind of go back. Maybe
• 12:33
  we can like re record that and I can just like splice it in and
• 12:37
  out of the audio. Well, I'll let you do that in your free
• 12:41
  time. I appreciate that, Thank you. Okay, Well, we've got
• 12:46
  a great episode previewing the Al East with Matt Frank coming up, Marmo's dad
• 12:50
  from Rasball, So I think we'll get right into it after this break stick
• 12:54
  around, and like I said, the Ale East is coming up. See
• 12:58
  what beast we like from the East. Hello, and welcome back everybody.
• 13:20
  We are into our category section here on the Fantasy Baseball Analysis this week we're
• 13:26
  looking into the Al East, the Al Beast. We got all the big
• 13:30
  hitters in this division and to bring us through the division and sort through it
• 13:35
  all, we've brought on our resident Blue Jays fan from ras Ball. We
• 13:39
  are joined here by Matt Frank. Matt, how you doing tonight and thanks
• 13:43
  for having me. Guys appreciate the invite. Looking forward to talking a little
• 13:48
  bit of names and numbers with you. Yeah, exactly, and little stick,
• 13:52
  little ball. It'll be a good time. So if people aren't familiar
• 13:56
  with your work, Matt, you are doing. You did the sag and
• 13:58
  off last year, which I think you did the Stone Basis side, and
• 14:03
  I don't know the acronym off the top of my head. I'll let you
• 14:05
  explain that to people. It is also in our Rasball glossary, which I
• 14:09
  didn't know we had a Rasball glossary till we looked it up the other week.
• 14:13
  But this year you're going to be doing top one hundred pitchers and guiding
• 14:16
  people through how to play the picture pool while also cheering on your Jay's hoping
• 14:20
  that they can make a little bit of a comeback in the East this year
• 14:24
  and make it back to the playoffs, So yeah, if you want to
• 14:26
  explain people what you do at rasball and kind of what Sagnov stands for as
• 14:31
  well. Yeah, sure. A couple of years ago I talked to Trust
• 14:37
  and he had me do a little bit of DFS two years ago for him.
• 14:39
  And then you'd asked if I could take over the Steels column, the
• 14:43
  sagnof half of Steel's the other one saves and holds being jkj's baby over there
• 14:50
  on the other side of the pictures. And then this our last year was
• 14:54
  mine with the steels Steels ain't got no face or saves anc no face,
• 15:01
  just meaning that it doesn't matter what the name is. As long as somebody's
• 15:03
  getting saves or stealing bases, he's worth a Waiverware pickup or some sort of
• 15:09
  fab pickup. So that was last year, and then this year Trust asked
• 15:11
  if I wanted to take over the top one hundred for him, and I
• 15:16
  said, yeah, absolutely, I can give it a crack. So we're
• 15:18
  going to start that in probably about a couple of weeks and give you some
• 15:22
  names and some numbers. And like I said last week with kielan Jay's fan
• 15:28
  by default been watching them for a really long time, listening to them for
• 15:31
  a really long time, since I was a kid. I'm a baseball fan
• 15:33
  first, but I guess if I have to default to an actual team,
• 15:37
  it's the Jays. Yeah. That kind of happens when you're in Canada,
• 15:41
  right, there's only one choice anymore. Yeah, there's no Vancouver Vultures or
• 15:46
  anything like that floating around up there, so it's pretty much Tronto or a
• 15:50
  bust. We're not rooting for the Washington Nationals too often, no, Yeah,
• 15:56
  probably a little bit despised. And yeah, if you are joining us
• 16:00
  for the first time, we are running through the division, going team by
• 16:06
  team and going each person to do a buy and sell. So Matt,
• 16:11
  you'll kick us off, and then Jeremy will go after you. We here
• 16:14
  go by Alphabeckle by city name of teams, because that's just the way that
• 16:19
  I sort my baseball cards, and it just seems always the most logical to
• 16:22
  me. I don't know why no one else always kind of follows that rule.
• 16:26
  We also have just been jumping around. So this is our fourth installment
• 16:32
  here as we have knocked out two thirds of the divisions after tonight, so
• 16:37
  we're going to start from the top the Baltimore Orioles, who won the division
• 16:41
  last year and look to be strong contenders again. They are a young team
• 16:45
  play in I think one of the stranger parks because it was a huge hitters
• 16:51
  park and then flipped to a pitcher's park, which was a bit of a
• 16:55
  bummer for people in dynasties like me that love streaming Orioles bats. It was
• 16:59
  great. But Matt, who are you going to buy and sell from the
• 17:03
  Orioles going into your fantasy drafts this year? It's funny you said something about
• 17:08
  how the park dimension has changed. That's going to come in in my cell
• 17:11
  a little bit, but we'll go into the buy with a little bit of
• 17:17
  a I don't know. It almost surprised me, but I have him in
• 17:18
  my Ale auction pool as a keeper. And just because the ADP is fairly
• 17:26
  I guess you'd say like high or mid would be like a late fourth rounder,
• 17:30
  but that's Grace and Rodriguez. His NFC NFBC ADP is seventy one,
• 17:34
  so you're looking late fourth round in those fifteen teamers. He had a few
• 17:41
  different numbers that kind of came up when I looked, I consider jumping in
• 17:47
  in the fourth round, I may be totally out though he's a thirtieth pitcher
• 17:51
  off the board, twenty second starting pitcher. If I do go with the
• 17:56
  guy like Grace Rodriguez, I'd probably have to follow up pretty quickly with another
• 18:00
  SB two. But some of the things that I noticed corrected the walks in
• 18:03
  the second half. He went from a ten percent walk right down to seven
• 18:07
  percent. He had that blip kind of in the first round or first first
• 18:11
  half of the season, went down, came back up, and seemed to
• 18:15
  have figured some things out. Swinging strike percentage jumped from eleven point five to
• 18:19
  thirteen point four. Second half. Homer's per fly ball went down from twenty
• 18:23
  seven percent went down four percent there, and his fastball even went up,
• 18:30
  albeit only one mile an hour, but it was up to a ninety seven
• 18:33
  point eight, so he can really chuck it. The team produces behind him,
• 18:40
  he'll have that offense. He's got a good chance at wins, and
• 18:44
  at seventy one I might be looking at depending on whether I get an earlier
• 18:48
  late pick in that first round. Late fourth might be the time when I'm
• 18:52
  ready to jump at starting pitcher. If I don't want to try and catch
• 18:56
  one in the fifth or sixth as my first Yeah, I think that's a
• 19:00
  great pick. He was definitely in consideration for me for my buy brew.
• 19:04
  I mean, are you in on the Grace and Rodriguez hype train this year?
• 19:07
  Yeah? I don't fully on the hype train. I was actually as
• 19:11
  I started the eyeball the Orioles, it was like my first like I'm selling,
• 19:15
  I'm not going And I started looking at him like, man, this
• 19:17
  actually looks pretty good. This is a lot more intriguing, and I was
• 19:21
  I was a little worried that, you know, he started to trade off
• 19:23
  contact for control at the end of the season. Then he did spike up
• 19:27
  his strikeouts again at the very end of the year, so it seemed like
• 19:30
  he's I mean, he was growing and it still feels a little high,
• 19:34
  just like the you know, the immaturity. They're just not having as much
• 19:38
  time in the majors. But all the all the tools seemed to be there.
• 19:42
  So I quickly removed him from my cell list and said, yeah,
• 19:47
  he's probably even that two or three on my bye so I'm not sure if
• 19:51
  if I'm going to it. I like my old steady starting pitchers, so
• 19:55
  I don't know if I'm gonna be investing at that point, but I don't
• 19:56
  see anything wrong with it. I actually do really like Gereson. I think
• 20:00
  there's the upside is what actually is really enticing with him is not only did
• 20:04
  he show all the tools last year, like if you could just do it
• 20:07
  for a whole year, what he did in the second half. Yeah,
• 20:08
  he's we're talking that, you know, top thirties pitcher, We're talking top
• 20:12
  fifteen, top ten that he could be. Yeah, I absolutely agree.
• 20:18
  All right, man, who are you going to do for yourself? So
• 20:22
  I mentioned last week with Kielan John Means a little bit, but I didn't
• 20:27
  want to go too much further into him tonight, so I went with our
• 20:33
  old Sherlock Holmes detective Ryan Mountcastle. The power dropped in the second half the
• 20:41
  lineup itself. He's not looking like he's a go to guy. I think
• 20:47
  they're probably going to want to try and make some more playing time for guys
• 20:51
  like Heston Kursedad Colton Cowser's got to get it some time, I believe as
• 20:55
  well. They even had Anthony Santandera taking some first base time, splitting that
• 21:00
  with his outfield and I still think he may be at one point one of
• 21:06
  those players that gets dealt away for an arm at some point so they can
• 21:11
  a little bit further and reinforce that starting rotation and cool you mentioned it at
• 21:18
  the beginning there, the dimensions of the park changing that deep left field I
• 21:22
  think eight into some of his home home run totals from before that those things
• 21:30
  that used to be I'm going a few feet over the wall are now turning
• 21:34
  into long fly ball outs or maybe even doubles. So just a lot going
• 21:40
  on with Ryan Mountcastle that I'm not sure I want to jump back in on.
• 21:42
  It's not like he's going super high in drafts. His ADP is two
• 21:47
  thirty five, I believe, so it's not like your waist I don't want
• 21:51
  to say wasting, but spending a higher round pick on him. But even
• 21:53
  at two thirty five, there's some guys in and around there that I think
• 21:56
  I would rather take a flyer on as like a corner infielder, than mount
• 22:02
  Castles because of some of those little flags that are popping up. Yeah,
• 22:06
  he was definitely in consideration for a cell for me because of all those things
• 22:10
  that you listed right there. So yeah, Brewery, are you in the
• 22:14
  same boat yourself. No, he's not, but I fully agree, And
• 22:21
  I think that the one thing that I wish is the Mountcastle still had that
• 22:23
  outfield eligibility from a few years back. If he did, I think it's
• 22:26
  a different story. But it's being buried at first base and having those because
• 22:30
  his you know, savat page looks pretty good, like there's like there.
• 22:33
  He's a really talented hitter. It's just that it doesn't seem that the little
• 22:37
  location where he's playing and some of the plain time is really ideal and I
• 22:42
  don't want to invest for my first basement to do that. So that so
• 22:47
  that's I think that's really hurt hurts his value being that corner infield as you
• 22:49
  reference Matt. Yeah, absolutely, And I'm impressed where you haven't stepped down
• 22:56
  each other's toes so far with these picks. So, uh, brew I'm
• 22:59
  gonn passed over to you for your bye. Yeah, well, I think
• 23:03
  you know that I'm gonna gonna try to ruffle some feathers here, but I
• 23:06
  don't think this first one will be too much so from a by perspective.
• 23:07
  Actually, one another guy that I started looking at from a sell perspective.
• 23:11
  I'm like, I just don't know investing, but I'm gonna go with Adlie
• 23:14
  Rushman. And you know, Adley's going off the board pretty early. I
• 23:18
  can't remember in the in the forties, I think adp And the reason I
• 23:25
  call it Adley is you start looking at him, it's really not too hard
• 23:29
  to see him, you know, in maturing just a little bit, and
• 23:33
  like hitting thirty homers in the year one hundred RBIs one hundred runs and hitting
• 23:37
  three hundred like it's a stretch from what he's done, but like you can
• 23:40
  see it happened like it it's not the realm with the possibility. And yes,
• 23:45
  investing early on a catcher is a little not something I love to do,
• 23:51
  but it goes back to the days of where catching wasn't that deep and
• 23:55
  you just got like the one good catcher. I feel like old days of
• 23:56
  like Jonathan Lacroix. I'm going way back, and you know, it's like
• 24:02
  that was just like this huge advantage and I think that Adley provides that over
• 24:06
  the rest of the position, which is really what it interests me. I
• 24:08
  think he's going the right spot for his skill set. But because of that
• 24:12
  positional differential. I think that he's actually a pretty solid piece there. I'd
• 24:17
  much rather have him than go like after a lad or a Bow or somebody
• 24:22
  like that. From the Toronto perspect I've going to throw the Blue Jays under
• 24:26
  the bus here. I'll go get up for you after it's okay. Yeah,
• 24:30
  you know, I appreciate that. So so ad Lea's my bye.
• 24:32
  I think he's a ton of potential. I think he's still growing, and
• 24:34
  I'm not shocked at like an MVP season out of Adley and looking like you
• 24:38
  know that that mid forties ADP is just a steal. I think you said
• 24:42
  it there too, about how the old Guard is starting to kind of drop
• 24:48
  off too. So it's almost like, add these elevators going up and you've
• 24:49
  got guys like real Muto or salth Perez that are kind of going down.
• 24:53
  So, like you said, it almost makes it look like a guy like
• 24:56
  Rutchman, if not fully this year, within the next couple he should be
• 25:03
  clear ahead of everybody. So I don't, yeah, I don't. I
• 25:07
  don't disagree with any of that at all. I think that's a good idea,
• 25:08
  and there's there's some people out there that like to go with lockdown that,
• 25:12
  especially in a one catcher league, like the lockdown that top catcher early
• 25:15
  so they don't even have to look at it later on, they can just
• 25:18
  focus on other sections. So I think that's a good a goodbye. Yeah,
• 25:22
  So we'll see, we'll see if we can get through two picks here
• 25:25
  without any disagreements. So nice for you. I don't think he's can disagree
• 25:30
  with this one, But I am selling Cedric mullins. I don't feel like
• 25:36
  this is a hot take by by any means. What I was actually surprised
• 25:40
  with was how high he's still going in drafts. He's he's a thirty third
• 25:44
  outfielder off the board. We're talking to guy about a guy that since the
• 25:48
  beginning of August last year, he hit one ninety with a WRC plus of
• 25:52
  fifty five. Like he was dreadful. He was that in the bottom third
• 25:56
  of the lineup. He was sitting against lefties. You know, he's he's
• 26:00
  trending in the wrong way against the rest of the team who's trinking in the
• 26:03
  right way. So like he's a guy that's actually losing playing time. And
• 26:07
  I feel like we're still paying for twenty twenty one, like he had the
• 26:10
  breakout season and ever since then he's been like ramping up his fly ball right
• 26:15
  year after year, but the power is not there, like it's not translating
• 26:18
  like the one year where he just had an insane home run per fly ball
• 26:22
  profile. So what just worries me is that, like you're just paying like
• 26:26
  I don't don't. I think Bullens has potentially has talent, but you are
• 26:30
  paying for, like you said, more of a second third outfield price on
• 26:33
  the guy. And I'm not gonna be surprised at the middle of the year
• 26:37
  he's he's a platoon. Yeah, I think cross off or so I'm fully
• 26:45
  out. Yeah, I mean I think that's I think what you guys have
• 26:51
  both identified too with Mountcastle Land Bullens is that there's a lot of bats in
• 26:56
  this system and there's got a they've all got to go somewhere, and currently
• 27:00
  Michael Last doesn't look like he wants to trade them. So anybody who's on
• 27:04
  the fringes like it's it's scary to take anybody who isn't like You're Adlee or
• 27:10
  Gunner who is just like a bona fide superstar, set it and forget it.
• 27:15
  Well, we've got too much agreement here, so Cooley take us down
• 27:18
  to the promised Land. Look, I know, yeah, yeah, this
• 27:25
  is we're not making for great sports radio because the content here is really rough
• 27:30
  and we actually agree. I know. So my bye this one. I
• 27:33
  don't know. Maybe I'll ruffle some feathers here, but we brought this up
• 27:37
  when he signed in Baltimore. They're only really signing so far this offseason.
• 27:41
  Craig Kimberl is my buye here out of Baltimore. That it's more so that
• 27:47
  I think there's been so many people in the fantasy community that have been burned
• 27:51
  here and there by Kimbroll over the years, or have been a fan of
• 27:55
  a team that's been burned by Craig Kimbrol in a huge playoff spot between Philladelphia,
• 28:00
  Chicago, Chicago, Atlanta, Boston, LA. I think he's spurned
• 28:04
  all those teams, fans bases, so he's left a really bad taste in
• 28:08
  people's mouths. But if you just put him in and set it and forget
• 28:14
  it, it's been working for the past three years. So twenty twenty and
• 28:18
  twenty nineteen were an absolute disaster. When he was with the Cubs, but
• 28:22
  since then he's been a really solid closer. Like I mean, he's been
• 28:29
  in the low twenties in terms of his saves. You know, he's averaging
• 28:32
  twenty three saves a season, but it's been coming with a mid three CRA
• 28:37
  and a K nine that is going to be in the thirteenish range. So
• 28:41
  I mean, it's a really solid closer. Just don't watch the highlights,
• 28:47
  just like, put him in, don't worry about it, and just let
• 28:49
  him ride. I want to argue with this one, I really really do,
• 28:52
  because I feel like it just hurts to watch. You're absolutely right,
• 28:56
  like the fact that he's like I think twenty third relief picture off the board,
• 29:03
  Like that's that's probably Steele. It's like one of the last relief pictures
• 29:06
  that you should be trusting to be the closer. Yeah, he's got Jason
• 29:12
  Irenhausen's quality's written all over him. You know, it's a heart attack waiting
• 29:17
  to happen. The only thing I wish is that he'd played on the West
• 29:18
  Coast so I didn't have to watch it. Yeah, exactly. Otherwise I
• 29:22
  want to disagree with you just out of principle, but I really can't.
• 29:26
  I think you said it there too, like the price is right for a
• 29:30
  guy like that proven track record. You could nitpick and say, oh,
• 29:33
  he's getting older, you know, and he's prone to implosions. He's got
• 29:37
  a guy like Jenny R. Cano sitting behind him saying, Okay, pick
• 29:41
  me, I'm ready. But if Dave signed the guy they're paying him the
• 29:45
  money, he's obviously going to get every chance until he proves to them it's
• 29:48
  not a good idea anymore. And I think it would have to take more
• 29:52
  than a few of those for them to say, Okay, let's start mixing
• 29:55
  in somebody else. He's got to prove at least once. I think we
• 29:57
  can all own that. So it's just time. Could he do it like
• 30:02
  once a month instead of like three times a week. Yeah, I mean
• 30:04
  it depends on, yeah, how tight the Al East race is. But
• 30:07
  I do think they trod him out there for a really long time because he's
• 30:10
  there to absorb arbitration dollars from you here, Cano and pick up those saves.
• 30:15
  And uh yeah, for my cell, I'm surprised you guys didn't have
• 30:19
  this one, but I think you'll probably agree with me. John means,
• 30:22
  like, why why is anybody drafting him, like the dude has a K
• 30:29
  nine projector right now for less than seven. He's coming off of a Tommy
• 30:32
  John surgery. He just didn't look great last year, Like he was pitching
• 30:37
  contact. He had a three point eight K nine when he was on the
• 30:41
  mound, and it was really great that he was a standout pitcher for Baltimore
• 30:45
  before they started turning a corner and getting good and he had the feel good
• 30:49
  no hitter. But I just this is not a place to be shopping,
• 30:55
  and especially where he's going. You should be spending that pick on a higher
• 31:00
  upside arm, just somebody with a live or arm at the back end of
• 31:03
  a rotation, or picking a bullpen arm, or honestly picking somebody who might
• 31:08
  be coming up from Triple A and or outfield. You know, you've got
• 31:11
  to take bigger shots than John means at the end of your drafts that because
• 31:15
  you're not even getting volume at that point, I don't think, because who
• 31:18
  knows what you're going to get out of him in terms of actual innings.
• 31:22
  He's kind of like a James Paxton I think at this point without the case.
• 31:26
  So I just like, I don't even know why people are drafting John
• 31:29
  Means period. The fact that he has an ADP is really out like astounding
• 31:33
  to me. Yeah, you said two things there that I want to keep
• 31:37
  you. First of all, you despairs James Paxton, which I take offense
• 31:40
  to that. So yeah, the big maple. You can't say those types
• 31:45
  of things. That's just it just insulting. Besides that, the thing that
• 31:48
  you actually said that was interesting was the dart throw. We're talking like the
• 31:53
  twenty third round of drafts, twelve teamers, Like, there's not upside.
• 31:57
  That's the problem here, is it? At that point in the draft,
• 32:00
  You're not like I need my safe eighth starter, Like, that's not what
• 32:05
  you're going for. That's the guy you can pick up off the waiver wire.
• 32:07
  You're going for the young gun, the guy that was hurt and hope
• 32:09
  he comes back. You're going for upside of that point in the draft.
• 32:13
  So why are you drafting John Means. I don't think I picked him out
• 32:16
  of the list because I just John Means. I just went right past,
• 32:20
  didn't think about him, and moved on with life. Yeah. I went
• 32:23
  in last week when we were talking about the Ambulus chaser stuff. I went
• 32:27
  in and thinking Okay, maybe he's gonna be my bye. And then I
• 32:30
  looked at everything. I thought, oh boy, the thing that actually looked
• 32:32
  good was the walk rate. It was still very low. But the biggest
• 32:36
  thing, and you guys touched on it too. I mean, the biggest
• 32:37
  thing is Tommy John surgery. But he was left off the Alds roster in
• 32:44
  the playoffs because his arm was not feeling great. Of course they gave him
• 32:47
  the don't worry, he's gonna be okay for spring training. But that's one
• 32:52
  of those ones that I'll believe when I see it. If he's on the
• 32:54
  mound in spring training, I'll peek in and see what's going on and see
• 32:57
  if they actually are keeping them out there for more than an inning. Wow,
• 33:02
  exactly near the end of spring training. Maybe. But he's one that
• 33:06
  I'll watch, but I'm not going to jump on someone like that, just
• 33:09
  exactly for what you said, a lot of red flags that are popping up,
• 33:14
  all right, Well, yeah, okay, we did lots of good
• 33:16
  agreement there on the Orioles. Let's see if going up the road to Boston
• 33:21
  and Beantown is gonna change anything and create a little conflict between us that the
• 33:27
  Red Sox. I've come to really love for streaming offensive players just because now
• 33:34
  that Arizona has been using a human door for the past few years, Boston
• 33:37
  has become the second best hitters park in the league, behind Course, great
• 33:42
  place to stream bats. And I've noticed this last year or two when I
• 33:45
  was doing my waiver wire pieces, that Boston, along with the rest of
• 33:51
  the world, is getting warmer, and so it's really like helping the ball
• 33:53
  fly and Boston more and more so it's been a really just great place to
• 33:59
  find DFS streamers and things like that. So I'm really high on a lot
• 34:06
  of the Boston offenses. You can tell, but Matt, where you gonna
• 34:08
  go for your buy and sell here up in Bean down, all right?
• 34:13
  So I'm not gonna ruffle too many feathers with my buy. I have a
• 34:15
  feeling that you guys probably have this one start somewhere too, because it feels
• 34:19
  like everybody out there's got a star beside this guy. He's one of these
• 34:23
  wide awake sleepers. It's gonna be on everyone's sleeper list. So I'm looking
• 34:29
  at Tristan Cassis. He's got an ADP of one oh five. He's the
• 34:34
  tenth first baseman off the board. He's batting in the top four in that
• 34:38
  lineup, and I think anybody who's looking at any kind of numbers from last
• 34:44
  year, he was a similar one where the first half was a little bit
• 34:47
  wonky and then the second half was huge the jump in power, his hit
• 34:52
  percentage went way up, and his fly balls over ground balls was also sky
• 34:59
  high. So there's a lot of people that are looking at that second half
• 35:01
  saying, Okay, this kid is ready, he's figured it out. He's
• 35:05
  gonna pop this year. This will be the big breakout. But with that,
• 35:08
  the helium's pumping. So I don't know if by the time we get
• 35:12
  the draft season in a few weeks that one oh five is going to be
• 35:15
  still floating around on one O five ADP. But as of right now,
• 35:19
  I'd feel comfortable taking him as a tenth first basement off the board, if
• 35:22
  not a little bit higher than that, because, like you said, Fenway
• 35:25
  is a beautiful place also a great place to hit. So I mean a
• 35:30
  kid that's coming up with that pedigree and has those games for the second half,
• 35:35
  I'm in on that one. Yeah. I think he was probably my
• 35:39
  second buy that I would have gotten. I love Tristan Cassis. The bat
• 35:44
  a ball data from the second half looked amazing, and it puts him into
• 35:49
  really elite tiers that like, he just smacked the crap out of the ball
• 35:53
  of the entire second half. And you can also there's a pretty easy narrative
• 35:57
  that like he is. I guess like I technically like a little bit of
• 36:02
  like a new age hippie guy just because he like does yoga while sunbathing before
• 36:07
  games and that like ruffled feathers like I have. Baseball dudes are a weird
• 36:13
  bunch in terms of they're like conservatism, you know. And so he once
• 36:16
  he settled in in Boston and got comfortable, he started just tearing the ball
• 36:21
  off the cover or tearing the cover off the ball, and so he's he's
• 36:25
  I think he's a great pick for everything that you mentioned. I have no
• 36:30
  disagreements. I think you can buy almost half the Boston lineup and be happy.
• 36:35
  So the only reason I wouldn't go with the Casas just because there's so
• 36:39
  many other guys I think I want to buy at the same time, and
• 36:43
  I have a feeling that he to your point that he's one of his white
• 36:45
  eyes wide open, sleepers, And so I think there's a good chance that
• 36:49
  somebody is going to jump. As you can see the spread on his picks
• 36:52
  on ADP. Some folks, he's only took a high as sixty eight,
• 36:57
  you know, So, boy, folks are for folks are So there's likely
• 37:00
  a guy in your league that might jump you on consas, and that's what
• 37:05
  you probably have to do to own him. That would be the only concern
• 37:07
  I have. But if you can give up the ADP, I love it.
• 37:09
  And that's the thing. There's so many guys that want to be the
• 37:12
  one that plants their flag on a guy, and he seems like he's one
• 37:15
  of those ones that's shining right at the front of that line. So I
• 37:21
  absolutely think that's probably where it's going to be going. So it'll be a
• 37:23
  game of chicken, I think of who's going to take him first in some
• 37:25
  of these leaps? Yeah? Absolutely, all right, who's yourself? All
• 37:30
  right? You ready? This is the Fenway fight. I know for a
• 37:32
  fact it's got to be here for you guys the other way around somewhere.
• 37:37
  All right, here we go. Mister Lucas Giolito is my note, thank
• 37:42
  you. He is ADP of two sixteen. I mean, it's not that
• 37:47
  big of a bad news rising here, but I did look at some of
• 37:52
  the things extreme flyball picture in Fenway with that greeting monster, it seems like
• 38:00
  it's not a great idea. He had an atrocious year last year. Mind
• 38:06
  you, it was among three different teams, so he did bounce around quite
• 38:08
  a little bit. Steamers predictions they've got him for ten record of ten and
• 38:13
  eleven. The nine point two one k per nine not bad, three point
• 38:17
  four walks per nine not bad. They've got him down from the two homers
• 38:22
  per nine last year to one point four homers per nine and Steamer but a
• 38:27
  lot of these numbers. The hard hit percentage went up last year. His
• 38:31
  barrel percentage against was four points higher than any other year except for his rookie
• 38:36
  year it was at eleven percent, and the fly ball percentage was way up
• 38:40
  twenty twenty two it was thirty six point eight percent last year forty five points
• 38:45
  seven. So the ADP is fine, but I don't know. Maybe it's
• 38:49
  because I've been burned by him before in leagues, but I can't see too
• 38:52
  much of a comeback there. It'd be nice because he did have like a
• 38:57
  rough role last year with three different teams. But that's when I'm going to
• 39:02
  go elsewhere in that kind of pocket of the early two hundreds and probably avoid
• 39:07
  him. All right, I want I want to read you, Matt,
• 39:10
  my my notes on my my Boston Red Sox cell. Here there's like seven
• 39:17
  words Lucas Giolito number one, sixteen sixty one SP will not touch it.
• 39:24
  There was literally there's literally no analysis, there's not a stat and everybody else
• 39:28
  has all kinds of informations. Just like I looked at that. I'm like,
• 39:30
  I'm not touching Lucas Giolito with a ten foot pole. So the friendship,
• 39:37
  so we got our arms around each other when we're celebrating. Coolly,
• 39:39
  do not let us down. Please come join us in Lucas Giulido Fade.
• 39:45
  I have a different cell, but I mean this is yeah, an absolute
• 39:47
  cell. I mean when he signed there, we were just like, no
• 39:51
  way, absolutely, no way. I mean he's like, it's it's just
• 39:54
  a disaster waiting to happen, that he's going to annihilate your ear A.
• 40:00
  You can't start him in Boston, You're gonna start him on the road in
• 40:02
  New York or Toronto or even Tampa, like no, thank you. I
• 40:07
  mean maybe in Baltimore. But it's just and yeah, on top of it
• 40:12
  all, like I mean, I've seen all of his arsenal backup in terms
• 40:16
  of seeing a lot of Lucas Giolito pitching over the years, and it is
• 40:21
  just no and unless he finds that gear that he had like in twenty nineteen,
• 40:25
  I but I don't know if it's there anymore. I think the tick
• 40:28
  has gone from the fastball and I'm not sure it's coming back. All right,
• 40:31
  brew Where are you going with your buy and sell in? Or was
• 40:36
  Gelido yourself? Geelito was myself my seven words, Cell. It was very
• 40:40
  deep, deep analysis, as you've come to expect from me. So I
• 40:46
  and I've I'm I'm gonna test Matt here because I want to see. I'm
• 40:50
  going to the pitching side and this is gonna be one of my favorite buys
• 40:57
  of the entire MLB uh and pitching pitching sides. So I'm going with Cutter
• 41:05
  Crawford. There we go, Crawford. Yeah, We've got we're talking one
• 41:10
  round after John means Cutter Crawford here. Yeah, And if you're if you're
• 41:16
  not already in on him. He really figured them some things out with him
• 41:20
  last year. He he figured out his slider works. I think it's a
• 41:22
  simple way to look at it. He was throwing it before August at like
• 41:25
  a nine percent clip, and after that he jumped up to a seventeen percent
• 41:30
  clip. He was at that point he was running a ten k per dye
• 41:35
  and about a three walks per nine And he has some terrible looks. So
• 41:37
  his era looked dreadful, but we were talking three forty five fip a three
• 41:43
  twenty five x cra it looked fantastic. And what's really really fun and interesting,
• 41:49
  Uh, if you guys believe in you know, baseball savants and their
• 41:52
  comparisons to other other pitchers, I'm gonna read you the two names because savant
• 41:55
  they compare your kind of arsenal and then you're bad at ball, uh qualities.
• 42:00
  So on the arsenal side, the top comp was Justin Verlander. Yes.
• 42:06
  On the battle ball profile side, the top comp was Max Scherzer.
• 42:10
  Now, I mean, yeah, I'm picking here, but like it was
• 42:15
  the first name off the board on each of them. He's figured something out
• 42:19
  from a pitching perspective, it looks like and these your eighty fourth starting pitcher
• 42:22
  off the board, like he's free. He's absolutely free. And again,
• 42:25
  why would you take Johnny's first over Cutter Crawford. So I am on Cutter
• 42:30
  Crawford. I just raised the price on every single draft I'm in because somebody'snna
• 42:32
  run me up. But that's okay. I love them. Yeah, I
• 42:37
  totally agree. And the projections on Cutter Crawford make zero sense to me.
• 42:42
  Like, I know I'm not smarter than computers, but like the dude showed
• 42:46
  a different Arsenal had a four or four ERA with a three eighty three fifth
• 42:50
  last year. That's with a bunch of bad mixed in too, and the
• 42:54
  and Steamers calling for a four six six e ra, zips Is calling for
• 42:59
  a four four nine year array on the whip, he put up a one
• 43:02
  to eleven whip last year. Steamer is calling for a one thirty one whip.
• 43:07
  Zips is at a one to twenty nine, the Bats at one thirty
• 43:09
  one. I don't get it. So like you can once you dial those
• 43:15
  things down closer to what he did last year. I mean, he's gonna
• 43:17
  be an easy buy across the board. Absolutely, I love it. Okay,
• 43:22
  I I'm surprised that no we got this by I'm buying von Grissom like
• 43:28
  everywhere. I think he's gonna be a huge pickup for me in lots of
• 43:32
  places that I think the Braves were just afraid to give him the role because
• 43:38
  of the defense, and I don't think Boston cares that. Boston's just gonna
• 43:44
  put him out at second base or you can hide him in left field against
• 43:46
  the Green Monster. The dude is hit everywhere that he's he's been in the
• 43:52
  miners. I think you can pretty much set him for like a two to
• 43:55
  seventy five year array at the floor and from there you stay up. You
• 44:00
  know, I think he's gonna do mid teens. Homer's mid teen Stone bases
• 44:04
  in a great offense, so you're looking, you know, seventy five eighty
• 44:07
  rbi and runs a piece depending on where he's hitting. But I mean,
• 44:12
  he's a peer hitter from everything I've seen in his stats. He's always been
• 44:15
  young for his level that I think he just lined up in terms of the
• 44:20
  Braves didn't need him, and they trade him for a really good pitcher in
• 44:23
  Chris Sale. I mean, Boston needed Chris Sale, but they needed Von
• 44:27
  Gristen more. And I'm going to be buying Von Grison in lots of places
• 44:30
  because he should be second base eligible, maybe some short stop, and I
• 44:36
  think he'll probably pick up outfielder too because he'll get enough time there. But
• 44:38
  I mean, just a really solid middleland fielder for where he's going. Yeah,
• 44:43
  i'd agree with the hitter, like the hit, the contact and the
• 44:45
  hit tool. Obviously it's number one. The defense was the issue, but
• 44:50
  I don't know how much this would play into it either. But when they're
• 44:52
  dealing a guy like Chris Saale away just name value alone, you know those
• 44:58
  fans out and Fenway are going to be losing it if they don't see Von
• 45:01
  Griston every day because they're gonna want to see who is this hot shot kid
• 45:05
  that they got in return for one of the top pitches that they had,
• 45:08
  maybe not over the last couple of years, but from a while ago.
• 45:12
  So I think your bang on story probably gets the Lion's share at short Grissom
• 45:17
  men's up as your everyday second basement and I wouldn't be surprised if he starts
• 45:23
  as many games as a guy like Dustin Pedroia did, and that's probably like
• 45:28
  the last comp from a playing time standpoint, he can play like. I
• 45:31
  don't think. I don't think the defense is gonna plumb out of the lineup
• 45:34
  for any kind of breaks or anything like that. So I think I think
• 45:37
  that's a great call strictly from the hit tool and the playing time. It's
• 45:40
  it's gonna be he's gonna accumulate some some pretty good stats no matter where he
• 45:44
  is in the lineup. Yeah, I think that. I think you're absolutely
• 45:46
  right, And it kind of just goes with with the theme that feels like
• 45:49
  any hitter in Boston and is worth buying at this point. I mean,
• 45:52
  we did talk about Trevor Storory, Jaron Duran, Tyler O'Neal, Like,
• 45:57
  you can make a case for almost any of these guys. So I feel
• 45:59
  like you're sitting there draft we're not sure what to do. Just look for
• 46:00
  the next Boston hitter. Take him, and you're probably gonna be pretty happy.
• 46:05
  Yeah, all right, my cell I'm going with a different picture than
• 46:09
  you guys. It's Nick Pivetta who's going much earlier than Lucas g You know,
• 46:15
  he's going one hundred and eighty fourth. He's going, here's the list
• 46:19
  of dudes who are going behind him, and it goes for a while before
• 46:22
  I could find somebody I would not rather have than Pivetta. I mean,
• 46:25
  you've got like Bryce Miller right there, Hunter Brown, Edward Rodriguez, Braxton
• 46:30
  Garrett, Brian Wu, Shane Baz, Ryan Peppio Evaldi, Like I want
• 46:37
  all those guys over Nick Pivetta, because what are we doing here? Like,
• 46:40
  what are we doing? Like Nick vet? Nick Pavetta is like the
• 46:43
  classic fool me once, shame on me or shame on you. I don't
• 46:46
  even know I'm gonna George Bush myself, like I'm gonna walk into butchering that
• 46:53
  quote. But like we've been down this past so many times as the fantasy
• 46:59
  community with Nick Pivetta, Like what is he being even drafted for? Because
• 47:04
  a lot of it, too is people are just taking last year's stats at
• 47:07
  the circus value. You look at that that line, Yeah, he had
• 47:09
  ten wins and he put up a four h four ERA in one hundred and
• 47:14
  forty two innings. He put up an eleven point five K nine. You're
• 47:17
  like, wow, Nick Pivetta turned a quarter. He did not. Nick
• 47:21
  Pivetta was a reliever for half the year. Here's what he did as a
• 47:25
  starter exclusively last year. He put up a four to six six e RA
• 47:30
  with a one twenty two whip and the K nine was down to ten ten
• 47:37
  point nine at that point, and your whip was at one two two.
• 47:39
  So Nick Pivetta is not changed. Do you not be fooled by that?
• 47:44
  That stat line from last year? He does really belong in a bullpen,
• 47:46
  and like that's where the good work came from. Because as a reliever he
• 47:52
  was really good. Like he put up a three oh seven ERA with a
• 47:55
  point nine to seven whip in a twelve point six K nine. But he
• 48:00
  also picked up five of his wins as a reliever, So he's not even
• 48:02
  going that deep into games when he does start. So just like, stay
• 48:07
  away, like this guy is troubled. Don't ever picnic. But no matter
• 48:12
  what year it is, trust me. Yeah, I remember when he was
• 48:15
  a Philly and he was coming up and he was going to be the next
• 48:17
  big thing, And I mean, it's another Canadian for us here. You
• 48:21
  guys must have listed them all off and said we've got to get him.
• 48:22
  For this guy, So Uh he was Canadian. Oh yeah, yeah,
• 48:27
  but he's that's exactly it. Like it's a jackal and Hyde, the starters
• 48:30
  versus relievers. And if you, like you said, if there's someone that's
• 48:35
  just looking at the base numbers thinking oh yeah, I'm going to get a
• 48:37
  great Red Sox pitcher here, and they're thinking they're getting a starter, I
• 48:42
  wouldn't be surprised if he ended up. If he imploded at the beginning,
• 48:45
  he ended up back in the bullpen, because that's where he's proven he's effective.
• 48:49
  So you're you're absolutely right, could burn a lot of people that are
• 48:52
  thinking they're expecting a starting picture to run with it, and all those other
• 48:57
  numbers that are underlying that they don't realize he accumulated or put up in the
• 49:02
  bullpen and to the point he the jekylin hide like that's how his starts went
• 49:07
  too, right. He's also one of those guys that you know he finished
• 49:09
  the season against Baltimore seven innings and ten k's with two hits loud. He
• 49:14
  just looks phenomenal, but like the of the like five starts before that,
• 49:19
  he was like two innings in the four runs, giving up three innings,
• 49:22
  four and two thirds, five and the third like he couldn't make it through
• 49:27
  then he had a brilliant out and like he's just like you're guessing with him,
• 49:30
  and you're most likely to like start him in these terrible then you're gonna
• 49:31
  bench him because he's facing a good lineup like Baltimore. He's gonna go off
• 49:35
  like you're probably gonna play like your results will be even worse with that as
• 49:39
  far as what you're actually hoping for, And they'll be they'll be like you,
• 49:44
  like he said, with some of the other guys, it won't even
• 49:45
  just be like a four or five earned run thing, Like he could just
• 49:49
  be a one point two innings and giving up twelve earned or something like that,
• 49:53
  and it's those ones are tough to bounce back from. It. Yeah,
• 49:57
  he's gonna hurt you too bad. And then you're like start him hoping
• 50:00
  like recover equity in some way, shape or form, and you're just gonna
• 50:02
  just gonna die. Okay, let's move on to the Bronx. Now,
• 50:09
  the Red Sox rivals in the Yankees. I think this is going to be
• 50:15
  an interesting team going into the year. I had them pegged for spending big
• 50:17
  in this offseason and Brian Cashman still sitting on those piles of cash because this
• 50:22
  team I think still needs a little work. I don't know quite what their
• 50:25
  trajectory is. They're the Yankees. It's time for you guys to play ball,
• 50:30
  like look at the Dodgers, is the way I think about it.
• 50:32
  So if they did miss the playoffs last year, we'll see if they can
• 50:36
  make the push this year with Juan Soto. But Matt who are you gonna
• 50:39
  pick for your buy and sell in the Bronx. You just said it there?
• 50:45
  Oh yeah, okay, oh yeah. Even like I said before,
• 50:49
  Kielan mentioned the Yankees, the the injuries there, and I'm not a Yankees
• 50:52
  fan obviously, but the injuries there last year were unbelievable. So many guys
• 50:58
  spend so much time on the IR or the il. It was just it
• 51:02
  was really ridiculous. But yeah, Wanshold is my guy there. Twenty five
• 51:08
  years old, he's entering those prime years of twenty six to twenty eight,
• 51:12
  that pocket where you're going to have hitters that are hitting their peak years.
• 51:16
  This year could be that big year. I know, it's kind of cheesier
• 51:21
  obvious to say. The short porch in right field with a big lefty bat.
• 51:25
  He's got a strong lineup. He's going to be well insulated in that
• 51:29
  order. I assume he'll probably be Batten two three somewhere in there. He's
• 51:34
  again, I don't know how much credence you guys put on this as well,
• 51:37
  but I've always thought someone that's going to be a UFA at the end
• 51:40
  of the season. There's a lot of guys that have that weird little switch
• 51:45
  that they flip and all of a sudden they put up a career year looking
• 51:49
  to cash in. So I wouldn't be surprised if he was trying to push
• 51:52
  some numbers for that big contract. All the projections were similar when I looked
• 51:55
  at him, but Steamer had him down for one to seventeen runs, nine
• 52:00
  bombs, one hundred and four RBIs even eleven steals and that pretty healthy two
• 52:05
  eighty four batting average. So, and anybody who plays in those different types
• 52:08
  of leagues with the on base percentage, I think we all know that on
• 52:12
  base percentage is filthy. He's projected for a four to twenty six OVP.
• 52:16
  He's had two years of health straight and he was eighth in the top power
• 52:22
  numbers control percentage over seventy five percent. I mean, there's not a whole
• 52:27
  lot to look at and say, I'm not sure about this guy. So
• 52:30
  if I end up with one of those ten through fifteen picks in a fifteen
• 52:34
  teamer, I'm going to look to him right around adp twelve twelve thirteen.
• 52:39
  Yeah, I think this is a great pick that when he got traded there,
• 52:45
  Brew and I were commenting on the ceiling is I'm not sure where it
• 52:50
  is that like and Steamer that that projection. Usually Steamer is very conservative,
• 52:55
  but that is a really fat projection. He was actually like my second choice
• 53:00
  for a buy. But I mean the min pick on him right now is
• 53:04
  six, and I think there's a really good case for that that, you
• 53:06
  know, taking him right behind that consensus top five of a Kunya with Julio
• 53:13
  Mooki, Corbyn Carroll that I mean, I can see myself being in a
• 53:17
  draft room and pushing him above Kyle Tucker, Freddie Freeman for an Aaron Tatis
• 53:22
  Strider and Judge just because of everything that you said, what do you feel,
• 53:24
  Brew, he's the best hitter that doesn't run. That's that's what it
• 53:30
  comes down to if you want speed early, you're not taking them. If
• 53:32
  you want the best hitter, you're taking one Soto. So I think that
• 53:36
  comes down to draft strategy. But otherwisewise, I completely agree with everything you're
• 53:40
  saying about one Soto, just kind of depends on how you want to approach
• 53:44
  your team. Yeah, And I do think that the contract year point that
• 53:47
  you made Matt is really key for that stole and basis too that like just
• 53:52
  look at what Aaron Judge did in his contract year. That dudes do run
• 53:55
  a little bit extra in contract years, and so you could see Soto put
• 54:00
  sing that towards twenty and if that happens and knees, you know, just
• 54:02
  launching it into right field in the Bronx, Like I mean, it's going
• 54:07
  to look Aaron judgesque maybe from the big year. Yeah, I think I
• 54:10
  think like fifty homers is not out of the realm of possibility. Then it's
• 54:16
  silly almost to say that thirty nine seems like a conservative prediction, But like
• 54:22
  you said, like Steamer is often conservative with a lot of things like that,
• 54:25
  especially with steels. But it could be I said it with someone else
• 54:30
  when we were talking last week but this could be the one year where everyone
• 54:34
  looks back after all a sudden done and be like, oh, yeah,
• 54:36
  this is the this is the one where he got paid, because he'll be
• 54:38
  looking for I'm assuming if he's twenty five, he's probably looking for a twelve
• 54:40
  year deal, and he's going to be looking for more than a couple dollars.
• 54:45
  I think, yeah, all right, who did you have for yourself?
• 54:51
  Okay, so I had too, So I don't really want to cheat
• 54:52
  too much because I might steal one of them from you guys. I think
• 54:55
  this one is one that's kind of obvious if anybody is a RAS baller.
• 55:00
  I was going to go with Garrett Cole at thirteen ADP, but I thought
• 55:05
  that's way too easy. So I'm going to go somewhere else with it,
• 55:09
  and I'm going to take the riz out of Anthony Rizzo. It's not looking
• 55:16
  too good, and I don't know how much of this had to do with
• 55:19
  the concussion problems that he had. Again, he's one of those guys where
• 55:22
  they say he should be ready for spring training, but he's thirty four years
• 55:27
  old. The Steamer predictions are kind of middle of the road. Seventy two
• 55:34
  runs twenty five home or seventy eight RBIs five steals to forty four average.
• 55:37
  That's not your grandpa's Chicago cub Anthony Rizzo by any means, and he's His
• 55:45
  walks were down last year from ten point six to eight point three. Strike
• 55:49
  oats were up from eighteen point four percent to twenty three percent. Again,
• 55:52
  like I said, I don't know how much of that was concussion related.
• 55:55
  But at two ninety nine, I mean jose A Bray, who is not
• 56:02
  going to be that much different or that much better. But I think I'd
• 56:07
  rather roll the dice on him at two seventy four instead if I needed a
• 56:09
  backup first baseman. So that's that's my cell for a Yankee. There was
• 56:15
  a few that I looked at, but I think Rizzo's for the health reasons
• 56:19
  as well. That's one of the big ones. All right, Well,
• 56:22
  we have our first dog fight here because he was actually he was my bye
• 56:27
  that he's my favorite late first baseman, and partly because it's pretty easy to
• 56:31
  tell yourself the story with the concussion and see what happened. So he didn't
• 56:37
  get to play the full year underneath the new rules with the shift and being
• 56:42
  able to steal the extra bases, you know, just with the different rules
• 56:46
  in terms of the engagements and everything like that. He is somebody who used
• 56:50
  to run when he was younger, so you know, he had seasons where
• 56:53
  he put up mid teen stone bases, and so I think he could return
• 56:59
  to something in the double digits. Like I'm not going to give him mid
• 57:02
  teens, but I think he could get back to ten because he was doing
• 57:07
  pretty well in terms of like hitting and producing up through the concussion. So
• 57:14
  the concussion occurred on May twenty eighth, and I'm trying to do this live
• 57:20
  that the game log he through that date was putting up a one forty six
• 57:27
  WRC plus slashing three oh four, three seventy six, five oh five that
• 57:31
  came with eleven homers. He was over to on the base pass, so
• 57:35
  he wasn't doing that as much. But he was one of the guys who
• 57:40
  I don't remember who did the study, but there was a study that like
• 57:43
  him and Freddie Freeman were going to be some of the biggest beneficiaries of the
• 57:45
  shift rules, and that was showing until he went through that concussion. After
• 57:52
  the concussion, things were awful, Like that's where the walk rate fail part.
• 57:55
  That's where the strike rate strikeout rate fell part. And so I mean,
• 58:00
  of course you don't know how long those things lingered. I mean,
• 58:02
  just look at who got elected to the All Fame the other week with Joe
• 58:06
  Mauer and how concussions can be lingering and long lasting. But if Anthony Rizzo
• 58:13
  is healthy, he's going to be a steal I think down there that I
• 58:16
  think he's going to come back with just a new vigor after last year and
• 58:22
  be able to just poke the ball into those different spots and go back to
• 58:25
  producing what he was doing before that concussion happened. And so I think people
• 58:30
  will see the age. But I think he is somebody who's not going to
• 58:34
  be playing like a thirty four year old because he's going to be able to
• 58:37
  find some of these extra gears. I feel like I have to break the
• 58:40
  tie here. Yeah, and Matt's right, I know I liked you.
• 58:47
  Yeah, I mean his Rizzo he has a babe of field. For the
• 58:52
  first few months there that looked kind of nice. He's on the wrong side
• 58:58
  of some trends, especially with I would say with the body type he's rolling
• 59:00
  out there, I see zero speed coming and I'm sticking with my New Year's
• 59:07
  resolution for the first time in this entire series, we've done with I'm not
• 59:09
  touching guys with injuries. I'm not touching those guys. Don't hold that to
• 59:15
  me when we get to like the next team. But I have zero desire
• 59:20
  to touch Anthony Rizzo. You can give him to me for free and I'll
• 59:22
  drop him. Well, I'll throw mic a bone here though, and say
• 59:24
  as a lefty bat there too. And he's got the contract where they're I
• 59:30
  don't think they're gonna pull the rug out from under them, and I don't
• 59:34
  know who else they have that can basically man that spot other than DJ lem
• 59:37
  Mayhew going over there. So I think despite if he does totally fall apart,
• 59:44
  which I mean hopefully he doesn't because the concussion stuff, I mean,
• 59:47
  I hope he's healthy, but I think it would take quite a little bit
• 59:52
  or quite a long stretch of not good for them to totally abandon ship on
• 59:57
  him. But I'll tell you, hey, I'll take the two v one
• 1:00:00
  no problem there. Yeah, yeah, all right, well, brew,
• 1:00:04
  who are you going, I'm gonna jump in Yeah. So, uh.
• 1:00:08
  We had a little chat before the show as far as there was one team
• 1:00:12
  where I was either taking a first rounder as my buye or nobody, and
• 1:00:16
  that is the New York Yankees. I was either taking one soda as my
• 1:00:19
  buye or nobody. And I'm going with absolutely nobody because I do like to
• 1:00:23
  draft speed early. And so even though I think Soto is great at the
• 1:00:28
  ADP, I have no problem with that. I'm just probably not somebody else
• 1:00:30
  is gonna most likely own him. And I looked through here and there was
• 1:00:32
  not a single guy, So like, uh, we just went through Boston
• 1:00:37
  whom like just just you know, throw a dart and I'll take a guy.
• 1:00:39
  I look at New York, I'm like, throw a dart, not
• 1:00:42
  not play him. So I I really have zero interest in buying anybody on
• 1:00:46
  the New York Yankees. So I'm anti Yankee at this point. You're one
• 1:00:53
  hundred percent right, has nothing to do with Yankees. Just I think everybody
• 1:00:58
  I'm looking AT's like over they got the Yankee tax in there to some degree,
• 1:01:02
  and I think everybody's trying to find somebody that should be worth worth paying
• 1:01:07
  for it in New York. So feel free to disagree with that very deep
• 1:01:12
  analysis. I just I'm not excited. But on the cell side, I'm
• 1:01:17
  gonna go right near Anthony Rizzo in the ADP with another I feel like should
• 1:01:23
  be really obvious one and we're gonna go with Mike Gien Carlo Stanton, and
• 1:01:30
  you know it's it's one of those injury issues, poor results, the stats.
• 1:01:36
  And I felt for this a few years ago, like he looks like
• 1:01:39
  he can hit the ball harder than anybody in the majors. He has this
• 1:01:43
  terrible babi pluck, like all these things like point that like he should just
• 1:01:46
  get you know, just have a year of a little health and a little
• 1:01:49
  luck, and he's gonna hit fifty home runs and like, fool me once,
• 1:01:52
  fool me twice, fool me like three times at this point, and
• 1:01:55
  it's just not happening. You know, give me Tommy fam for like Luke
• 1:02:00
  Rayley or something like that at the same ADP. And I'm just gonna be
• 1:02:04
  thrilled because they're play the whole year and they're gonna do so much more good.
• 1:02:09
  And where Stanton, You're gonna like just keep hoping because he's gonna hit
• 1:02:13
  like two home runs or three home runs in the game, like early in
• 1:02:15
  the season, you're like, yes, he's back, and then he's gonna
• 1:02:17
  go like oh for the next thirty and you're not gonna see it coming.
• 1:02:22
  So I am staying away from gan Carlos Stanton. It looks tempting. It
• 1:02:25
  does, like if you look at the numbers, it is slightly tempting to
• 1:02:29
  be like, he's gonna kind of come back this year. I think you
• 1:02:31
  just have to look at the track record and said, yeah, we've seen
• 1:02:34
  this before, and he doesn't come back better than before. Oh yeah,
• 1:02:38
  the power is so there, and I think that's what everyone kind of gets
• 1:02:42
  all excited about. I mentioned it last week with Kielan. If anyone signs
• 1:02:45
  up for the subscriptions at Rasball, you get access to Rudy's war room,
• 1:02:50
  and the war room always has gian Carlo ranked so highly, and it's like,
• 1:02:53
  oh my gosh, there he is. There is there is, and
• 1:02:55
  it's it's almost who's gonna who's gonna buy at that spot? And I think
• 1:03:01
  I don't know if there's anyone out there that hasn't been burned by gian Carlos
• 1:03:05
  stant at least once in a draft or in a league. And I'm one
• 1:03:08
  hundred percent on that too. I mentioned him as a cell last week too,
• 1:03:12
  and I can't do it, no, especially, I mean, he
• 1:03:15
  can end up hammering a bunch of homers in a week or two, but
• 1:03:20
  then the injuries and he's not going to be batting to forty. He'll be
• 1:03:24
  batting maybe two hundred to ten if you're lucky. It's the contact is not
• 1:03:30
  there. And he's not getting any younger either. No, that's the probably
• 1:03:34
  you look at. You're like, man, the guy had a baby of
• 1:03:36
  two ten. He just it's regression to the mean. That's all we need
• 1:03:39
  is he's gonna get a little better. He's can get two fifty hit forty
• 1:03:43
  bombs. Like, No, it's not gonna happen like the analog. So
• 1:03:49
  this is right, the outcomes wrong, it's not gonna happen. Yeah,
• 1:03:52
  I'm all right, Holy yeah, my cell I think is in the similar
• 1:03:57
  vein because this is almost like the pitcher version of gen Carles Stanton. And
• 1:04:00
  that's Carlos Rodan that I mean, look at I just said Nick Pivetta was
• 1:04:04
  going like one hundred and eighty fifth. Carlos Rodan's going an entire round before
• 1:04:09
  Nick Pivetta. And this is a guy that was on the mound for sixty
• 1:04:13
  four and a third. Really bad innings last year for six eight five RA
• 1:04:17
  and the injuries are just it's too much. I think that what Rodin did
• 1:04:23
  is he sold out for those couple of years to get the big contract and
• 1:04:27
  had you know, a great twenty one and twenty two for Chicago and San
• 1:04:30
  Francisco. And I don't know if he's got anything left in terms of overcoming
• 1:04:35
  those injuries. And I mean, now that he's got the payday too,
• 1:04:39
  it's just you know, you question whether or not, like it's worth it
• 1:04:43
  to fight all the way through. And I mean, I'm sure he like
• 1:04:46
  will say otherwise, but it's just the injury history is so extensive, and
• 1:04:51
  he had so many blow ups last year too, like he had that game
• 1:04:55
  where he didn't get any outs and was yanked, and it's just not great
• 1:05:00
  division for this. You know, if he was able to fiddle around and
• 1:05:03
  was still like the White Sox and you know, pitching against central teams,
• 1:05:08
  I think I could consider it later in a draft, But when you're pitching
• 1:05:12
  in the Al East, there's no room for error. That these lineups are
• 1:05:16
  some of the best offenses in the League, and they're going to tear you
• 1:05:19
  apart that Carlos Brundon when he's not on, is just not a good pitcher
• 1:05:26
  that he needs everything there and he's not a guy I think they can pitch
• 1:05:30
  through injury or can pitch non injured. I'm right there with you. The
• 1:05:35
  thing I'll add on to the pile here, his fly ball rate with the
• 1:05:40
  Yankees last year was fifty three percent. If there's a ballpark where you don't
• 1:05:45
  want to just like put it in the air, it's probably in New York.
• 1:05:49
  And so like, I'm sure that really is going to work out well
• 1:05:54
  for him. So yeah, I think there's a lot of red flags here.
• 1:05:58
  And I'm shocked at that adp like it. I don't aget it is
• 1:06:01
  a Yankee shy and I don't know what it is. But why why?
• 1:06:06
  Yeah, it's crazy And yeah, so let's move on to our next team.
• 1:06:12
  We're gonna go down to Tampa where the Yankees play spring ball. That
• 1:06:16
  is uh with the Tampa Bay Rays, who have had an interesting offseason in
• 1:06:23
  terms of getting rid of Tyler Glass now and there's still you know, swirlings
• 1:06:27
  of Randy Rosa, Raina leaving, but they've replaced everybody with just a bunch
• 1:06:31
  of random no names. Again that I think you have to be a real
• 1:06:36
  seamhead to know a lot of these players. And this is actually, I
• 1:06:40
  think what makes some great buying opportunities. So, yeah, Matt, who's
• 1:06:45
  your first buy here in Tampa? Yeah? I like the Rays a lot
• 1:06:48
  too, but it's there, there's there's certain things that kind of get me
• 1:06:51
  to kind of shy away from them a little bit. I really like Josh
• 1:06:55
  low a lot, but there's some wartz there, and the numbers with the
• 1:06:59
  Hits Tool ADP's a little too high for my liking. So I went a
• 1:07:01
  little deeper dive. There's reasons for it, so it's not like you're going
• 1:07:05
  to pull him out with his with my second outfielder pick. But I looked
• 1:07:11
  at Jose Siri. He's going around two ninety five as far as ADP goes.
• 1:07:15
  The contact rate is terrible. The k rate is first percentile. So
• 1:07:23
  yeah, Like, I got a ten year old at home that plays U
• 1:07:26
  eleven baseball. He can throw pretty hard. He's a good little pitcher,
• 1:07:30
  but I mean, I don't know, he might be around the second or
• 1:07:32
  third percentile, So yeah, so the contact and the k rate is not
• 1:07:38
  good. But here we go. We can spin it around. Here,
• 1:07:42
  sprint speed ninety eight percentile, barrel rate eighty seven percent tile. This guy
• 1:07:46
  can run. This guy when he barrels up the ball a ball, it's
• 1:07:50
  going to go. Hopefully he gets the playing time, which sounds really silly
• 1:07:56
  to talk about when you're talking about Rays because we know how much they love
• 1:07:59
  the platoon their guys. But with playing time in health, I think he
• 1:08:03
  could probably hit a twenty twenty floor And if you're looking at the twelve or
• 1:08:09
  sorry, the twentieth round in a fifteen teamer, I mean I'm okay with
• 1:08:14
  that, as long as I've insulated my average elsewhere. Yeah, I mean,
• 1:08:17
  you're talking to a major Jose Sirie fanboy here that you know, ever
• 1:08:21
  since the season that he had in a ball with Cincinnati in twenty seventeen when
• 1:08:28
  he jacked twenty four homers and swiped forty six bases, like, I've been
• 1:08:33
  in love with him, that he is just an all or nothing player.
• 1:08:36
  So you're not going to get a great, unbiased opinion that I love him
• 1:08:41
  for a late pick, especially if you're in a daily league. That's oh
• 1:08:45
  man, if you can play Jose Siri only against lefties or certain matchups,
• 1:08:50
  that is gold. So that's DFS gold there too. Yeah. Absolutely,
• 1:08:55
  But I know Brew you probably this is not your type of dude with the
• 1:08:58
  low avacs. So to throw water on this who's self for Tampa Bay,
• 1:09:03
  it's Jose Siri. Oh boy, okay? And the and the funny thing
• 1:09:08
  is I've listened to described the guy and I'm like, if that's the note
• 1:09:12
  I have, that's the note I like, that's exactly what I like.
• 1:09:15
  We're talking about the guy that had the third highest home run fly ball rate
• 1:09:19
  if he was a qualified hitter in the major leagues last year, like he's
• 1:09:24
  the power is not gonna be what it appears to be. He also would
• 1:09:29
  have dominated the entire field from a strikeout perspective by a few points if he
• 1:09:33
  was a qualified hitter like he you know, he's not doing the things that
• 1:09:38
  you want to see doing. It's the kind of guy to your point,
• 1:09:41
  Cooley, is that he's gonna hit for terrible average. And the thing that
• 1:09:45
  really hurts me is, I think something Matt alluded to earlier is that why
• 1:09:48
  I don't like Tampa Bay hitters. Is that, Like, I just don't
• 1:09:51
  know what they're gonna do with them, And so I think series gonna like
• 1:09:55
  start for a whole week and then he's gonna take a whole week off and
• 1:09:58
  then he's gonna you know, go crazy for like three days, and he's
• 1:10:00
  gonna get the next week off. Like, I don't know what they're gonna
• 1:10:03
  do with them, And that's that's what worries me about Jose Siri. Yes,
• 1:10:08
  he very well. I don't know if I could go twenty twenty.
• 1:10:10
  He's probably gona go fifteen to fifteen. And I think Steamer has him there
• 1:10:14
  and for ADP of the three hundred, like it's very very emptying. But
• 1:10:19
  I'm gonna shoot myself on flip by starting him. I shouldn't. And so
• 1:10:23
  I'm I'm staying I'm staying away from Hose Siri for all the same reasons I
• 1:10:26
  think you're buying them. Yep. Oh, I think that's fair. That's
• 1:10:29
  exactly the type of like I totally understand he's exactly that type of player.
• 1:10:34
  But yeah, Matt, who's going to be your cell? Then? Okay,
• 1:10:38
  so this one might be a little bit I won't say spicy, but
• 1:10:43
  He's someone that'll show up on some lists, I'm sure too as the sleeper,
• 1:10:46
  just because of the magic that they seem to to pull off with their
• 1:10:51
  young arms there. But I think I'm going to dodge Ryan Pepio at an
• 1:10:57
  ADP of two oh two. I'm assuming that that magic one is probably going
• 1:11:01
  to lead to him being a little bit more overrated and overdrafted in some of
• 1:11:05
  the leagues that I'll be in. This is justin strictly in redraft leagues keeper
• 1:11:11
  leagues, I think he's good to go. I wouldn't think that it would
• 1:11:15
  be a bad idea to throw a dollar or two on him in those keeper
• 1:11:16
  league auctions, but in redraft I'll go elsewhere. Some of the other guys
• 1:11:20
  that I saw in the NFBC list in and around the two hundred mark,
• 1:11:27
  I think Coolly you mentioned a few of them to Shane Baws at one ninety
• 1:11:30
  three. If he slides a bit, Brandon fought which was I think it
• 1:11:34
  was Trust's bye last week in one In your last one he's at two fourteen,
• 1:11:41
  you, Darvish, was not a bye last week and year in your
• 1:11:44
  pod. I listened to that part this morning. He's a two seventeen,
• 1:11:45
  but even that, he's got a little bit of a track record. He
• 1:11:49
  knows what he's doing, so hopefully he turns something around. Another one of
• 1:11:53
  our Red Sox guys that I actually have in the AL League as well my
• 1:11:58
  auction league that I'm keeping Brian Bayot at two thirteen, and I went as
• 1:12:02
  far down as a guy like Tristan McKenzie, maybe at two forty if you're
• 1:12:06
  into that kind of thing. But anyway, those are just some of the
• 1:12:10
  names that I looked in and around that two hundred mark that I think I
• 1:12:13
  would be willing to roll the dice on over a kid who is not necessarily
• 1:12:18
  as proven as I like to look at rookie pitchers or rookie pitchers. And
• 1:12:23
  I totally understand that I said Grayson Rodriguez as a bye, but I'm gonna
• 1:12:30
  dodge Pepiote. I think unless he can prove himself fairly early in the season.
• 1:12:36
  Yeah, I think the only disagreement I will have was if if I'm
• 1:12:40
  a late draft, like a really late draft, and I can go to
• 1:12:43
  spring training and see a pitch mix shift or something like that, Like that's
• 1:12:45
  what Tampa Bay is known for, is changing something and getting something for that.
• 1:12:50
  Like if I see that, I'm willing a little bit more willing to
• 1:12:53
  take a flyer. Still probably not at the ADP, but like I'm a
• 1:12:57
  little more willing, but overall, like I just I'm not touching that guy
• 1:13:00
  unless I see like true growth and I think that somebody else is going to
• 1:13:04
  pay for the truth for that expected growth before we see it. Yeah,
• 1:13:09
  I think that's fair. Yeah, So brew who's your buy down in Tampa.
• 1:13:13
  Yeah, So here's where I'm going to contradict myself on don't go after
• 1:13:15
  hitters that were hurt, and I'm going to go with a buye that I've
• 1:13:19
  had for like three years with Tampa Rays where maybe finally the ADP is low
• 1:13:24
  enough to make it make sense. I've got Brandon Lowe for Tampa Bay.
• 1:13:30
  If you want to go look at somebody's Baseball Savat page and just see red
• 1:13:33
  throughout like all the power figures, that's Brandon low He could he's he's a
• 1:13:38
  thirty forty home run hitter waiting to happen going around like round twenty two.
• 1:13:43
  Like he's middle infield, bench type spot. You know, I think,
• 1:13:48
  you know, it's just a matter of if he can stay healthy, he's
• 1:13:51
  worth it beyond the whole. Who knows what Tampa Bay is going to do
• 1:13:55
  with for playing time, but if you're investing in them him like a midland
• 1:14:00
  fielder would like a bench piece that. I think there's a lot to like
• 1:14:02
  Brendlow, and so I'm probably have a lot of shares just because he's the
• 1:14:05
  kind of guy that you can plug in in some good matchups and really really
• 1:14:09
  you know, get some some stats from the power perspective at HUM. So
• 1:14:13
  Low's Low's my bye for for for the Rays. Yeah, I I always
• 1:14:17
  have loved him too. I think it's actually Lao too so because yeah,
• 1:14:24
  Josh Low is Low and loo Islao I was debating. I picked one and
• 1:14:29
  just went with it. I figured the confidence would sell it. But it's
• 1:14:31
  a weird one because because Josh, Josh and Nader brothers, so those are
• 1:14:35
  the are the low guys. And then Brandon law Is I don't know,
• 1:14:40
  apparently Mom didn't like the way it sounds. Yeah, is the one that's
• 1:14:45
  the weird one. But I constantly love him too that like he's a great
• 1:14:48
  lake and I pick and how much do you believe? I can't even pronounce
• 1:14:51
  a guy's name, and I'm like, oh, I love him every year
• 1:14:53
  and can't name. It's all Good's the same thing though, Like I've been
• 1:14:58
  on the old be Loud trained for a long time, but the biggest flag
• 1:15:01
  that really scared me away. And I mean I still traded for him in
• 1:15:05
  our AL league last year because he was too expensive and I'm like, no,
• 1:15:09
  I can't, I can't bit him up, and then sure enough I
• 1:15:11
  ended up dealing for him. Anyway. It's the back stuff, his back
• 1:15:15
  injury from a couple of years ago, and then it resurfaced again. And
• 1:15:17
  I said it with Keelan last week. Gray mentioned when it happened if it
• 1:15:24
  was a fractured finger or I don't know, like a bleak that you can
• 1:15:28
  get over, okay, But the back is a tough one, and I
• 1:15:30
  thought when it first surfaced, I thought, oh, well, he'll be
• 1:15:33
  fine. He's still youngish. And then it popped up again, so I'm
• 1:15:38
  like, oh, I guess Gray was right, So he's one that I'll
• 1:15:41
  steer clear up. But you said it too. It's not as if he's
• 1:15:43
  going in like the top one hundred or anything like that. He's fallen enough
• 1:15:46
  where the price might be right, and he's it's worth taking a gamble on
• 1:15:50
  depending on what else is in and around that area. So I mean,
• 1:15:54
  I still love him too, so I'll end up with him somewhere this year.
• 1:15:58
  I'm just gonna find on report that says he's healthy this offseason, which
• 1:16:00
  every report will say about every player, of course, and then I'll just
• 1:16:03
  convince myself from there. So I'm fine with it. Perfect, no flaw,
• 1:16:10
  no flaws in that approach at all. Right, as long as you
• 1:16:12
  go in knowing it, Yeah, you're fine. Yeah, met attitude,
• 1:16:18
  Off we go. Yeah, okay. Uh So for my buye, I'm
• 1:16:24
  going back to that set of pictures going around the two hundred ADP and I'm
• 1:16:28
  gonna buy Aaron Savally. So he I was actually I thought he was better
• 1:16:32
  than in Tampa than he was in Cleveland, but I just like looked at
• 1:16:38
  the stat run and it was the other way around. Because what he's pretty
• 1:16:42
  good at is not having blow ups. But he had one with Tampa at
• 1:16:45
  the end of the year against the Angels down the stretch where he gave up
• 1:16:50
  six earned but actually cade seven, so it wasn't like a total nothing burger
• 1:16:55
  of an outing for you. But that is kind of like what I've liked
• 1:16:58
  about Savally over the years, is U should he avoids that blow up?
• 1:17:00
  You know. Other than that, I'm looking as game log from last year,
• 1:17:03
  he had no other games over for and runs, so he kind of
• 1:17:08
  avoids some of those things typically, where like you know, we were talking
• 1:17:12
  about this with Paveta and Rodan and some of the other guys that we've gone
• 1:17:16
  through where avoiding those big blow ups is a big part of pitching late and
• 1:17:21
  just like finding somebody who is SETI who's going to start every fifth day.
• 1:17:26
  I have a lot of faith in Savali doing that. I've always liked his
• 1:17:30
  pitch mix when he was in Cleveland, and you're just taking that to a
• 1:17:33
  pitching factory down in Tampa where they can you know, improve that slider,
• 1:17:39
  improve that cutter, and just kind of tweak that arsenal a little bit.
• 1:17:43
  So I think a full year down there with the development, it is a
• 1:17:46
  tough division, But you know, I think he's got a better shot at
• 1:17:49
  wins with the Rays because their bullpen, and he's also going to be I
• 1:17:54
  think one of their workhorses in this in this rotation, like they've got to
• 1:17:59
  get inning somewhere, and you look at you know, people like Taj Bradley
• 1:18:03
  and Littel and Pepio and Efflyn who have all had kind of like relievery ish
• 1:18:11
  like issues in their background. So I think they're gonna lean heavily on Savally.
• 1:18:15
  And you could see just like even though the K rate is a little
• 1:18:18
  lower, you can see a good deal of k's just because he's just out
• 1:18:25
  there posting for you. I want to agree, I want to disagree.
• 1:18:27
  I just don't know that. I do like Savali's just boring, which I
• 1:18:30
  think he's the problem. And so like either like nineteen ninety one and he
• 1:18:35
  almost gets a K for nine, he does almost decent control, Like your
• 1:18:41
  point, like it's you know, the rays are probably gonna just tip that
• 1:18:45
  from almost to like yes on a lot of those. But I think Savali
• 1:18:48
  is one of those that just doesn't excite me. But I'm also can't have
• 1:18:51
  an argument against him. I think that's that's the problem. He's just he's
• 1:18:55
  what we talked about was just last week about like Leane Thomas, like he's
• 1:18:59
  just the boring picture which might actually be good. Yeah, and that makes
• 1:19:03
  sense. I think, like just thinking about talking about the magic wand with
• 1:19:06
  the Tampa's got with those pictures and how they unlocked some stuff with Zach Eflin.
• 1:19:11
  I think a lot of people are thinking Pepio might be a guy that
• 1:19:13
  they unlocked. But I wouldn't be surprised if something happened with Savelli, where
• 1:19:16
  like you both have said before, something like focusing on different pitch mix or
• 1:19:20
  something along those lines, where I wouldn't be surprised if he surprised a lot
• 1:19:26
  of people because they saw something that other people didn't and then he runs with
• 1:19:30
  it. So but that's the biggest thing with Sabelli for me though, is
• 1:19:33
  the Caper nine. But if you're not walking guys, I mean, that's
• 1:19:38
  not a bad deal. Yeah, I agree, okay. And for my
• 1:19:44
  cell, it's one of the higher pic rays on the ADP from an FBC,
• 1:19:47
  and that is Yandy Diaz. I'm selling Yandy Diaz even though he he
• 1:19:54
  had a career year last year obviously with the twenty two homers, ninety five
• 1:19:57
  runs, which was huge, seventy eight RBI three thirty average, but there
• 1:20:01
  was a lot of things that were kind of starting to go south underneath the
• 1:20:06
  hood. He is starting to get up there in age, even though he
• 1:20:09
  hasn't been around too long that you know, he's going to be thirty two,
• 1:20:12
  and agent curves kind of have like a classic bell curve distribution, and
• 1:20:16
  you can see maybe that like it's starting to come on the downslope of that
• 1:20:21
  roller coaster, because underneath the hood, the k rate like didn't improve,
• 1:20:29
  but it like evolved from ten point eight to fifteen point seven last year.
• 1:20:34
  Even though he increased his barrel rate, he actually increased his ground ball rate
• 1:20:39
  too, so the fly balls that he was hitting more of them were barrels,
• 1:20:42
  but he's starting to hit it back into the ground more, which was
• 1:20:45
  one of his issues early in his career, and the rays worked on,
• 1:20:49
  you know, lifting that launch angle with him. Then the other thing too
• 1:20:54
  is that the contact rates are starting to slip a little bit too. His
• 1:20:59
  in zone contact rate or no out of zone contact rate slipped six points.
• 1:21:04
  In zone slipped three points, and so things are just starting to tick the
• 1:21:10
  wrong direction. And he did that all in a full season. So you
• 1:21:13
  can see where just like some of those refined skills that you have as a
• 1:21:16
  hitter that start going as you age, are starting to go on him a
• 1:21:19
  little bit, and it's like it's a pretty big, like flashing warning sign
• 1:21:24
  up for me, and like I'd rather go a different spot for my corner.
• 1:21:29
  Especially given we've talked about the Rays love mixing and matching, they're going
• 1:21:32
  to be in a dogfight for this division that if Yandy Diaz isn't producing,
• 1:21:38
  he's even at risk of losing his job, that they're going to go with
• 1:21:41
  the hottest hand they can all the time. I think to to kind of
• 1:21:45
  piggyback on what you said about the Rays mixing and match and they've got some
• 1:21:47
  kids that need some time too. So you've got kid like Curtis Mead coming
• 1:21:50
  up that's going to need some playing time. You've got that junior Camenaro as
• 1:21:55
  well, and it seems like a lot of those guys that do play the
• 1:21:59
  in field, if anyone falters, they're ready probably to fill in. So
• 1:22:08
  that's another one too. I'm the contact rates, like you said, going
• 1:22:12
  down, it's still a major league hitter and he's doing well. But if
• 1:22:15
  those red lights get a little bit brighter, I wouldn't be surprised if Kevin
• 1:22:19
  Cash started to move his pieces around like he loves to do and yeah,
• 1:22:25
  absolutely, playing times biggest and you know in Tampa that's never a given.
• 1:22:29
  He's one of those like stack cast Darling kind of guys who just under the
• 1:22:31
  covers always looks better. And then he just started to have a decent year
• 1:22:34
  last year and he was like, finally it's paying off. I think it's
• 1:22:38
  actually the opposite. It's like the skills are actually started to deteriorate and he
• 1:22:42
  just got out a little lucky. I think it's just kind of a smoke
• 1:22:45
  screen at the end the day. So I'm right there with you. I'm
• 1:22:47
  not on YONDI Yeah, okay, now we're going to get to the main
• 1:22:51
  attraction, the main show, the Toronto Blue Jays, and sell them all,
• 1:22:57
  just sell them all. Hey, they are going at like seventy four
• 1:23:02
  cents on the dollar up here, so it's yeah, it's already pretty costly,
• 1:23:09
  and roll to wear T shirts that I order cost me a little bit
• 1:23:12
  extra. Yeah, sorry about that. But yeah, I is the off
• 1:23:18
  season. I'm trying to think it complicated, Like it's been a strange off
• 1:23:24
  season in terms of you know, Chapman's leaving and I'm not sure what they're
• 1:23:28
  gonna fully do at third base, and you know, though Tani being pulled
• 1:23:32
  under from out from underneath them obviously happened. But it's an interesting time I
• 1:23:38
  think for the Blue Jays, as you know, they've been on the precipice
• 1:23:41
  of really kind of turning the corner into a little bit of like a mini
• 1:23:45
  dynasty. But things could be fizzling out fast here and I think this is
• 1:23:48
  a really big make or break year for Toronto. So, Matt, what
• 1:23:53
  do you think is the resident Blue Jays fan? Yeah, so I can.
• 1:23:57
  I can speak to whichever way you want to go with this. I
• 1:24:00
  mean, I was around for the ninety two and ninety three back to back,
• 1:24:03
  first University of ninety three, so you guys knew the math to see
• 1:24:06
  how ancient I am. But that was such a great the Joe Carter Knight.
• 1:24:11
  I could give you an hour and a half long story about that,
• 1:24:13
  but we don't get here that tonight. We've talked about the ninety three World
• 1:24:16
  Series is like one of my favorites because it's like the first time I was
• 1:24:19
  allowed to stay up late and watch the World Series. So that gives you
• 1:24:23
  CINOMARTI I was staying up late as well. But I was probably drinking something
• 1:24:27
  different than what you were drinking that night, So I hope. I don't
• 1:24:30
  know how your parents were, but I'm pretty sure it's probably different. But
• 1:24:33
  yeah, the Otani thing, like you said, I won't go too much
• 1:24:38
  into it, but I'd mentioned to Kielan last week that I wrote a big
• 1:24:43
  thing in a group chat with buddies of mine up here that I played ball
• 1:24:45
  with and kind of had it written out, and like, yeah, you'll
• 1:24:49
  go with the Dodgers for sure. It's what's gonna happen. He wants to
• 1:24:51
  stay on the West Coast, he wants they'll pay him. And I still
• 1:24:55
  fell for it on the Friday, like Bobs book line and Sinker. And
• 1:25:00
  it was funny because when the Dodger beat writer wrote something about it, and
• 1:25:03
  then it was Morosi that tweeted something out, I thought, holy smokes,
• 1:25:08
  if those two guys are basically saying, yeah, this is going to happen,
• 1:25:12
  it's happening to the point where I believe it or not. I had
• 1:25:15
  a portable full of nine year old kids chanting yes, yes, yes,
• 1:25:20
  because I teach grade four up here and they none of them know who he
• 1:25:26
  is, except for like maybe one kid, but yeah, I totally fell
• 1:25:29
  for it. So there's a little bit of a gut punch up here collectively
• 1:25:33
  for that one. But justin Turner, don't worry. There you go.
• 1:25:41
  But I said to a buddy today, even after he signed yesterday, it
• 1:25:44
  was like it almost seemed like JD. Martinez or Jorge Soil there would have
• 1:25:47
  been a smarter move. I was hoping, I mean hoping for Otani,
• 1:25:51
  but my biggest hope for them was a Bellinger deal because they need a left
• 1:25:58
  handed bat. Defense was their strong suit last year. So Bellinger's defense is
• 1:26:02
  great, but they didn't really need improvement there, but they needed a big
• 1:26:05
  bat left handed. Would have been lovely to slide in with some of their
• 1:26:11
  righty bats that they've got. But I'd said to a buddy, if he
• 1:26:14
  hasn't signed here by now, I don't think it's happening. And you can't
• 1:26:17
  really, no matter how much money you offer a guy, you can't really
• 1:26:21
  force them to sign somewhere if they don't want to make the trip. So
• 1:26:25
  it's going to be pretty interesting. I think the starting pitching was top ten,
• 1:26:30
  the bullpen was top ten. I think it was like fourth and sixth,
• 1:26:32
  respectively. If I am not mistaken much sure on that though, So
• 1:26:39
  I'm gonna go with a lovely Homer pick. I will tell you there's no
• 1:26:44
  way I'm getting him up here, because it's blue Jay mania up here in
• 1:26:47
  all of my leagues all the time. But outside of here, it looks
• 1:26:53
  like Vladimir Gurover Junior is sliding a little bit. He's definitely not a first
• 1:26:58
  round draft pick like has been in the past, and he's sitting at an
• 1:27:01
  ADP of thirty three. So if I've got one of those top three picks
• 1:27:06
  in a fifteen teamer, that means coming back down in the third round,
• 1:27:11
  I would not be afraid to pick him up right around pick thirty. It's
• 1:27:15
  funny because these kids that show up and they start playing at like nineteen,
• 1:27:19
  you think, oh man, these guys are ancient. And he's only twenty
• 1:27:24
  four years old. He's above or at the eighty eight percentile in and I
• 1:27:30
  just listed him off because I looked at the page here at ex wOBA expected
• 1:27:35
  batting average, X slug average, exit villo, hard hit percentage, and
• 1:27:40
  K percentage. So for a guy to have all of those red lines there
• 1:27:45
  at or above eighty eight percent. I mean it's there, the powers there.
• 1:27:50
  He's coming off his worst year, so there is a little bit of
• 1:27:53
  a discount. But like I said, he's still just twenty four if you
• 1:27:57
  think like I do. As far as the pocket of peak years being twenty
• 1:28:00
  six to twenty eight for a hitter, he's got time. Again. We
• 1:28:04
  mentioned it before about maybe some of these guys that are coming up towards free
• 1:28:09
  agency, are they going to try and flip a switch. He is not
• 1:28:13
  a free agent until after the twenty twenty five years. Same thing as Bo.
• 1:28:16
  But the fly ball percentage is up, the barrow percentages up, and
• 1:28:20
  yeah, I'm in on him. There was a thing written today where Vlad
• 1:28:25
  said, like, this is going to be the year, and I hope
• 1:28:28
  it's not like a Charlie Brown getting the football pulled out away from him.
• 1:28:30
  But like, I'm in. I've got the bias here too, But at
• 1:28:34
  thirty three, I'll take that all day. Yeah, he's one of those
• 1:28:41
  that has just all the talents in the world right and it's just a matter
• 1:28:45
  of like does he put it all together. I almost wonder if some like
• 1:28:46
  Homer and Derby time that you know, hurt a little bit, and so
• 1:28:51
  I think it's just a matter of dude, you know, what do you
• 1:28:55
  want to do with your first baseman. But I think there's nothing wrong with
• 1:28:59
  with with my Ladimir technically another Canadian too. We're hammering him out here boys,
• 1:29:04
  thanks thanks to the Montreal expos Yet yeah, all right, well I'm
• 1:29:09
  gonna have to disagree a little bit because he's actually myself so like mostly because
• 1:29:14
  it's it's a little bit of like a shrug emoji, like I don't know
• 1:29:16
  what to make a lad Guerrero Junior that like the past two years have shown
• 1:29:23
  such a diminished return on your investment that I think I'm going a different direction
• 1:29:28
  that like if I'm sitting there at the beginning of the third round, that
• 1:29:32
  you know, I'm still looking for a little bit more in terms of the
• 1:29:38
  stolen based department and maybe trying to take a picture around that area. So
• 1:29:43
  it's just like, if I knew that he would play like forty games in
• 1:29:47
  Dunedin again, that'd be awesome. And that's what I'm afraid of is that,
• 1:29:53
  like you see where the projections are, and so the projections put him
• 1:29:59
  right in the t year that would take you in take him in the second
• 1:30:02
  round just because the homers are in the mid thirties, the RBIs and runs
• 1:30:06
  are both over one hundred, but he hasn't done that the past two years,
• 1:30:10
  and I I'm just a little bit afraid that those projections are baking in
• 1:30:15
  the supreme performance he put up in the minors, not accounting correctly for that
• 1:30:19
  Dunedin season still, and I'm just it's just mostly because I don't know who
• 1:30:25
  Vlad is, and I think, like he's a great player. He's also
• 1:30:30
  got the MLB the show curse going into this year too, so that's valid.
• 1:30:34
  Yeah, I mean, yeah, you can't get any deeper than analysis
• 1:30:39
  like that. So it's just it's just mostly because like it's a question mark.
• 1:30:43
  If I if I knew that like Vlad could play to even like ninety
• 1:30:48
  ninety five percent of those projections, I would be in. But I just
• 1:30:53
  don't know if he can. Yep. Yeah, Like I like that that
• 1:30:56
  one huge year he had when there it was there was the back and forth
• 1:30:59
  talk about it should it be Otani, should it be him to win the
• 1:31:01
  m v P, And I mean, I think we can all agree that
• 1:31:04
  Otani is way ahead of anybody, no matter what kind of line you put
• 1:31:09
  a be a put up. But yeah, that's that's valid. And with
• 1:31:14
  him, his conditionings come into question in the past two so you don't know
• 1:31:17
  if he's going to show up full steam ahead. I'm pretty stubborn on it.
• 1:31:24
  It's the it's the age that does it for me. I think we
• 1:31:27
  still we still have a lot of very strong years ahead of us with this
• 1:31:32
  guy. And my biggest concern is him and Bo signing extensions hopefully at some
• 1:31:38
  point soon. All right, who are you gonna go with for your cell?
• 1:31:43
  All Right? I'm assuming this one's not just for the boss, but
• 1:31:46
  I'm pretty sure Gray'll appreciate this one because not only did he burn Gray last
• 1:31:53
  year, but he burned me last year too. Uh and that is mister
• 1:31:56
  Alejandro kne too. Oh yeah. I think he got a lot of people
• 1:32:01
  that were looking at a catcher that has a very good contact tool and thinking,
• 1:32:09
  oh hey, especially in those one catcher leagues, if I can get
• 1:32:11
  a guy that might not hit more than fifteen homers but he's going to back
• 1:32:15
  to eighty, sure, no problem, we'll go after that. And it's
• 1:32:17
  actually kind of funny he's at an ADP of two sixty two, and his
• 1:32:24
  buddy there, Danny Jansen, is an ADP of two sixty one, so
• 1:32:28
  they are quite literally back to back there. I think it's probably pretty simple
• 1:32:33
  to say he insulates that batting average with contact, but ugh, there's little
• 1:32:40
  to no power there. I don't want to get in trouble for say anything
• 1:32:44
  about his body type, but I don't think he's going to be stealing too
• 1:32:47
  many bases anytime soon. He hasn't shown too much before the slugging, the
• 1:32:53
  average exit vello, the barrel percentage, the sweet spot percentage, like all
• 1:32:58
  that's twenty percentile or low or and it's funny like up here we were saying
• 1:33:02
  when Loritis got dealt to the Diamondbacks for var show and moreno got added in
• 1:33:09
  there, it was like, Oh, it's like, how do you not
• 1:33:13
  try and dish a guy like Kirk out in a deal like that, because
• 1:33:16
  it's like business, one on one, you're gonna sell at the high point,
• 1:33:23
  and now that he has kind of regressed a little bit from that high
• 1:33:27
  point, it's like, I don't know if they would have got Arshall back
• 1:33:29
  if it was Kirk and Gariel going out but I was hoping that they'd keep
• 1:33:32
  Jansen and Moreno as their their pair, but for some reason they wanted to
• 1:33:35
  keep Kirk around. And I mean, if you value contact catchers, okay,
• 1:33:42
  but I'm not going to actually I take Jansen over him at two sixty
• 1:33:45
  one. Yeah, I mean I think that's fair, especially if you're looking
• 1:33:48
  for a little extra power. Jansen showed it a little bit more last year.
• 1:33:54
  And yeah, so Brew, do you have Alhandra Kirk on your buy
• 1:33:59
  er sell or did you also having overlap you go in different directions. I'm
• 1:34:03
  going to different directions. I don't disagree with with really anything that had said
• 1:34:09
  there, but I'm just ready to be judged by the expert here of the
• 1:34:11
  other the Blue Jays. So I'm gonna go with with my buy. I'm
• 1:34:16
  with my bye of with the assumption that Alec Manoah is going to make at
• 1:34:19
  least one start and maybe maybe no more than two. That one of my
• 1:34:27
  favorite favorite up and coming pictures Ricky Tiedeman. I love Ricky. You know,
• 1:34:33
  we've talked in this pod before about kind of what I look for in
• 1:34:38
  a picture, and it's it's really three things. It's strikeouts, it's control
• 1:34:43
  and it's ground ball rate, like those things, and that is who he
• 1:34:47
  is to a core. There's a little health questions, I get it,
• 1:34:50
  but you know, screw New Year's resolutions. I didn't make that one.
• 1:34:55
  And you know, he's the guy that's that. I really think it's even
• 1:34:59
  still at you know, the young age. You think he's going to be
• 1:35:01
  twenty twenty one and to go into the season, you know, he's he's
• 1:35:05
  a guy that he's free. He is absolutely free at the draft table,
• 1:35:10
  and I would not be shocked to see him turn in a top forty starting
• 1:35:15
  picture season, especially if he you know, like I said, Mineau is
• 1:35:18
  the one thing that's in the way, and I don't feel like that's much
• 1:35:21
  that's in the way at this point in time. So I would not be
• 1:35:26
  shocked to see him up by late April early May and making making a really
• 1:35:31
  big impact for the Blue Jays. So he's my bye and I absolutely love
• 1:35:36
  him. Yeah, I like that call out a lot. I honestly think
• 1:35:41
  that's part of the reason why the Jays were not as much in on a
• 1:35:45
  trade talk like Soto or one of these other big guys. I'm assuming a
• 1:35:49
  kid like Teaman can bring them back someone like Jose Ramirez or someone like that
• 1:35:55
  that they've talked about wanting to bring a very high profile player about back in
• 1:36:00
  in trade. But they are super adamant they are not moving that kid for
• 1:36:04
  anything, I don't think, And I think that's probably the right call.
• 1:36:09
  You talk to any fans up here, and they're quick to tell you that
• 1:36:12
  the management doesn't make a lot of good calls. But I mean, I
• 1:36:15
  think that's with any fan base, they're going to criticize. But but yeah,
• 1:36:17
  Tiedeman's he is the next big thing up here, and he I don't
• 1:36:23
  think he's going anywhere now that I've said he'll get shipped to Anna. I'm
• 1:36:27
  for Taylor Ward or something. But but as of right now, Whip would
• 1:36:31
  be happy with that, I assume. But but yeah, yeah, no,
• 1:36:33
  as of right now, I think you're bang on. It's funny too,
• 1:36:36
  because I mentioned last week about the Manoa thing. I think he maybe
• 1:36:40
  gets four starts and if he totally implodes, maybe they try and stretch out
• 1:36:45
  a Uriel Rodriguez or An eight Pearson And totally not even thinking that was my
• 1:36:48
  brain flub there. Yeah, Tiaman is the next up, So yeah,
• 1:36:53
  I think you're bang on. If he comes up early, he can he
• 1:36:58
  could be a huge difference maker. I feel like we're talking about him next
• 1:37:00
  year like we were just talking about Grayson Rodriguez. I think that's that's the
• 1:37:04
  comparable there is that he might get bumped around a little, try to figure
• 1:37:08
  things out, then like the second half, he just takes off and next
• 1:37:10
  year we're going like, man, you really could see this guy as a
• 1:37:12
  top ten But I'm thrilled to get him in the top twenty twenty five starting
• 1:37:15
  pitchers. So yeah, and he's a lefty too. I like that.
• 1:37:17
  It's so he's gonna get some Uh yeah, it's gonna be a good one,
• 1:37:21
  all right. So now here's where I think that I might get in
• 1:37:24
  a little trouble. My shit, Oh Noah, are you wearing a beat
• 1:37:31
  On mask under there somewhere or what? I think? You know? I
• 1:37:38
  think the hype train on bow has gotten too far gone. We're still living
• 1:37:43
  in twenty twenty one with the guy that you know is a twenty twenty five
• 1:37:46
  hit or with a three hundred average. The guy attempted eight stolen basis last
• 1:37:50
  year and he was not successful either. On those, So he's he's slowing
• 1:37:59
  down. You know, he still has a lot of good things otherwise,
• 1:38:03
  but it's the price point that's the problem with with him. It's the price
• 1:38:08
  point. You look at other guys going around him, and I, you
• 1:38:11
  know, I I think, what are we talking about here? The fourth
• 1:38:15
  round for for bo, and there's just a lot of other guys I would
• 1:38:17
  rather have at that price point. You were talking jose L Tuvey, You're
• 1:38:21
  talking a Dallas Garcia, Randy Rose, Arena, Royce Lewis Adelaide, those
• 1:38:29
  guys, and I mean those that's the round or two later. And so
• 1:38:32
  you know, you're looking to the guy that, yeah, he might get
• 1:38:34
  your twenty home runs, and his counting stats have been a little questionable at
• 1:38:40
  the top of that lineup and no steals like so he's just not delivering outside
• 1:38:45
  the average, which seems to be you know, pretty pretty consistent. He's
• 1:38:49
  not like outstanding anyone area, and he's just above average. And but I
• 1:38:55
  feel like we're paying for, you know, him to be excellent in two
• 1:38:59
  or three, and that's where, like I compare, he's going almost right
• 1:39:02
  in line with Josel Tuve, who's going to score easily one hundred runs.
• 1:39:08
  He's gonna probably steal twenty bases. He's gonna hit for almost the same average,
• 1:39:12
  and what like, I'm taking that all day, all day, So
• 1:39:16
  boba shit, I'm out on him. I think there's still some shine from
• 1:39:19
  the rookie year, the sophomore year that he that he brought the folks were
• 1:39:24
  paying for. Yeah, that's totally fair. He's only twenty five years old
• 1:39:28
  too, so he's still like underneath that twenty six to twenty eight pocket.
• 1:39:30
  But I, like we said at the top of the show, I wrote
• 1:39:36
  up steals last year. All year I did the Potapalosa thing with Sarah Sanchez
• 1:39:42
  there and we talked about steals and I hit on a lot of predictions,
• 1:39:45
  but that one was definitely a big with like first percent tile with it made
• 1:39:51
  no sense to me at all. If the kid's twenty four years old,
• 1:39:54
  he's got all of this the pedigrees there, he's like you said, the
• 1:39:59
  twenty five twenty five all yep, steels are gonna be up. Everything's gonna
• 1:40:01
  be up. Bo. He even said he wanted to run more and for
• 1:40:04
  him to attempt what he attempted and then still not be successful. It absolutely
• 1:40:10
  blew my mind. So if you go on last year and again he doesn't
• 1:40:15
  improve, I don't blame you for that. I'll still take him in the
• 1:40:17
  fourth round for sure, probably because I've got that I got a few blue
• 1:40:23
  shirts upstairs, but with a little bit more hope than some of your regular
• 1:40:29
  everyday players that aren't up here. But uh yeah, yeah, like I
• 1:40:32
  it's it's valid because the steals thing is so bizarre to me. It made
• 1:40:38
  Yeah, I still can't. It doesn't match the eye tests, which bothers
• 1:40:42
  me. You look at him like he should be the twenty five, twenty
• 1:40:45
  five, three hundred, yeah, and then you're at that point you're plugging
• 1:40:47
  him in this number three hit or something like that, and you're loving the
• 1:40:50
  runs and get RBI's like like you can easily see it, and it just
• 1:40:54
  doesn't happen. That's what That's what bothers me. Yeah, And even Grace
• 1:40:58
  said something about the fact that maybe they they told him that, like they
• 1:41:00
  don't they don't use feedt up here, they use meters, so maybe you
• 1:41:03
  were trying to steal bases by running on his hands, Like yeah, yeah,
• 1:41:06
  pretty much. It was pretty pretty close. So yeah, I totally
• 1:41:11
  get that. Yeah, and I echo a lot of that that. You
• 1:41:15
  know, Bo's going thirty fifth right now. The thing is like, if
• 1:41:18
  you like Bo, why not just wait until the next round and get Matt
• 1:41:24
  McClain, who's also got second base eligibility. I mean, just look at
• 1:41:28
  their projections. Matt McLain's going to give you more stone bases, same counting
• 1:41:31
  stats and homers, and they'll maybe a little bit lower average, but you're
• 1:41:35
  also getting him in great American ballpark. That it's just it's it's kind of
• 1:41:40
  crazy that, like I think this time next year will be flipping those two
• 1:41:44
  in pretty much all of our drafts. Yeah, I hope not, but
• 1:41:47
  I can see it. I really like Matt McLain as well. And that
• 1:41:49
  bandbox is yeah, that's definitely an offensive ballpark. Yeah. Okay, well
• 1:41:56
  I give you myself with flat Junior. So this buy, I mean,
• 1:42:00
  Brew, you probably have seen this from like the entire time. Oh,
• 1:42:03
  if it's not who I think it's gonna be, I'm I'm just gonna sign
• 1:42:08
  off now and we'll call it a day. Well, we'll try Brew.
• 1:42:10
  Do you know who my my bias, I just have to guess it's used
• 1:42:14
  to Kokuchi. It is you say, Kakuchi, that's the best Japanese picture
• 1:42:19
  this year. By I did have to look at the ADP on this one,
• 1:42:21
  Like this didn't matter what the ADP is, that was still the answer.
• 1:42:27
  Yeah, so we're gonna go down to he's currently going two hundred and
• 1:42:30
  forty first. So when you're that late, the only other guy who's like
• 1:42:35
  in the range of like what Kokuchi gives you is Charlie Morton, and that
• 1:42:40
  is K's volume. I don't know if people really realize this, but you
• 1:42:44
  say Kakuchi provided one hundred and eighty k's to you last year, it was
• 1:42:46
  pretty much free that, like you know, he is either a dollar or
• 1:42:50
  you know, picked him up off of waiver wires. Early in the season,
• 1:42:54
  he put up a nine point seven K nine and it came on the
• 1:42:59
  heel of an arsenal change. So the Blue Jays reintroduced his curveball and tweaked
• 1:43:05
  it a little bit from when he threw it as a rookie as a Seattle
• 1:43:09
  Mariner, and that extra fourth pitch, I think was what Kakouchi needed to
• 1:43:14
  be able to start full time and be able to get through lineups because it
• 1:43:18
  just improved his entire arsenal, gave everybody a different look. And sure,
• 1:43:23
  I know through the reason that you're not totally in on CACOUCHI is he does
• 1:43:27
  have only a thirty nine point seven percent ground ball rate, but he was
• 1:43:31
  able to cut the barrel rate, he cut the hard hit percentage last year.
• 1:43:35
  That the arsenal itself is just fooling hitters more and creating more weak contact
• 1:43:43
  than it has in the past. And I'm bought in. Along with cutting
• 1:43:46
  his walk rate down to two point five, none of the none of the
• 1:43:51
  projection systems are giving him a walk rate lower than three. So I mean,
• 1:43:58
  if he can repro that work, I think it's gonna be free money.
• 1:44:01
  And when you're looking at some of the dart throws down there, you're
• 1:44:05
  looking at just a lot of really flawed pictures. That Kakuchi gives you volume,
• 1:44:12
  and I think you can count on him to put up thirty starts that
• 1:44:15
  the Blue Jays are going to need him. I love him, and he's
• 1:44:19
  going to be on a lot of my teams going into next year. Yeah,
• 1:44:23
  I think to your point the ground ball rate, I'm gonna I'm going
• 1:44:27
  to support your argument here. He had a ground ball rate of roughly thirty
• 1:44:31
  seven percent in the middle of the summer and August, it was forty percent
• 1:44:34
  in the September October forty seven percent. That was better actually figuring some things
• 1:44:39
  out. So I think there's a lot to light. Yeah, you know,
• 1:44:42
  his second half was phenomenal to everything you said. The only thing I
• 1:44:45
  don't like is you despair as Charlie Morton, and that's I didn't acceptable.
• 1:44:48
  It's actually like those two guys, they're going so late and like I love
• 1:44:51
  them both that I'm like, Okay, I misunderstanding, but I'm just generally
• 1:44:57
  off if anybody insults Charlie because he is, you know, even though I'm
• 1:45:02
  the single card holder in the Sunny Gray Club, Charlie Mooreton, I'm like
• 1:45:05
  second on the list. So anyway, Matt, for a better analysis,
• 1:45:11
  what do you think. I don't know if it's going to be better.
• 1:45:14
  But I remember when when he came to Toronto and I was like, oh,
• 1:45:16
  please don't be like Marco Manzalez. Oh boy, oh no. But
• 1:45:21
  it was funny because there was always that talk of like and I know it's
• 1:45:25
  cliche to say, but like, oh, if he can just unlock that
• 1:45:27
  next level. He's got the skills there and he just needs the right people
• 1:45:32
  to try and help him kind of turn it. And it clicked last year
• 1:45:36
  for sure. There was talk that he was just going to be kind of
• 1:45:40
  a spot starter and a reliever most times. But yeah, it absolutely clicked.
• 1:45:45
  The checkboxes are there. You guys said it all right there. And
• 1:45:48
  I think the last two years the offense has been not great. I mean,
• 1:45:54
  it's it's dipped quite a lot in Toronto. But if they I mean
• 1:45:58
  it might be a big if. But if and kind of turned that around.
• 1:46:00
  The defense has been their calling card, especially last year. It was
• 1:46:03
  so improved and I think that's most of the reason why they ended up in
• 1:46:06
  the playoffs despite the offense that was kind of prummy. Where I'm going with
• 1:46:12
  this is if that if that offense just improves a little bit more, He's
• 1:46:15
  got the skills. If you repeat the skills and Mike, you said it
• 1:46:17
  too eaton innings, he's going to get that thirty start threshold. Probably he's
• 1:46:24
  not getting bounced out unless he really puts up a bunch of stinkers because of
• 1:46:29
  the success he had last year, and they're more likely to let a guy
• 1:46:32
  like him kind of run with it. I think where they would pull the
• 1:46:35
  plug on someone like the guy that's set up as their fifth starter, like
• 1:46:41
  what Jeremy said earlier, A lot you cannot be named. Yeah, man,
• 1:46:45
  oh, I think that was close enough. But yeah, I don't.
• 1:46:53
  I think I think is gonna stick around for a while. Yeah awesome.
• 1:46:56
  Yeah, Well, I'm glad to get validation on Ma Kakuchi love from
• 1:46:59
  both that I finally have turned grew around on the corner. Took it took
• 1:47:04
  maybe a few years. It took a skill change for me to actually buy
• 1:47:11
  in. Yeah, that does make sense. Okay, Well that wraps up
• 1:47:15
  the AL East. I mean this is actually the first one where I think,
• 1:47:18
  well, maybe the AL Central is a little competitive in terms of our
• 1:47:21
  divisional picks. The last two have been kind of boring with the NL East
• 1:47:26
  and NL West. So, Matt, who do you think is taking home
• 1:47:30
  the Al East crown this year? I'm gonna have people at my door if
• 1:47:34
  I don't say the one that everyone thinks that I'm gonna say. But instead
• 1:47:40
  of going with the Homer pick and saying that the J's are gonna run away
• 1:47:43
  with it because they're not. That's that's the one thing that separates me from
• 1:47:45
  a lot of the other Chase fans up here. I would not be surprised
• 1:47:50
  to see, and I know this isn't really answering your question, but wouldn't
• 1:47:53
  be surprised to see the wild cards from this division as well, both of
• 1:47:58
  them really like I know the Al West is strong as well, but holy
• 1:48:01
  smokes, it's going to be. Like you guys both mentioned, it's gonna
• 1:48:04
  be a dog fight. I would love to say the Jays, but Baltimore
• 1:48:10
  looks really strong as far as offense goes, that pitching staff, even Felix
• 1:48:15
  Batista going down and having a guy like Kimberle or Canoe back there. So
• 1:48:19
  I know it's kind of boring to go with the team that won it last
• 1:48:23
  year, but I think it'll be the Jays and Baltimore up top Tampa.
• 1:48:30
  You guys said it too. They shift so much stuff around and they never
• 1:48:33
  really seem to lose much ground. Those kids like Junior Kaminara I mentioned already.
• 1:48:40
  I wouldn't be surprised to see some of those guys get the time and
• 1:48:43
  put up some numbers, and at least those three teams pushed north of ninety
• 1:48:47
  ninety five wins. So yeah, I know I'm padging everywhere over here.
• 1:48:51
  But if I have to pick one, we'll say it's going to be the
• 1:48:55
  Jays. But I don't know if I really believe that. I think they
• 1:48:59
  make the playoff, but I don't think. I don't know if they bring
• 1:49:00
  home the old title to stick up beside Dave Steve's retired number up there on
• 1:49:05
  the rafters, I don't know. We'll see, all right, Brew,
• 1:49:09
  Who are you picking for the division? Yeah? I think you know MAT's
• 1:49:12
  assessment's pretty much straight on here, and you know I'm I'm gonna pick the
• 1:49:15
  Orioles. I think they're a team that, you know, most complete team,
• 1:49:20
  and they're actually a pretty deep team when you talk about that, as
• 1:49:24
  far as they have, there's so many guys we talked about, but that
• 1:49:27
  the top of that farm system is just chocked full of those kind of guys
• 1:49:30
  that, like you love to plug holes in. They can come up and
• 1:49:33
  make a difference. And I think that they just that one year of like
• 1:49:38
  feeling it and seeing what it could be like, the confidence is high.
• 1:49:42
  I think that they're gonna be very, very hard to beat. So I
• 1:49:46
  love the Orioles there, and I think you're probably right. There's probably at
• 1:49:49
  least two, if not three teams coming out of out of this division at
• 1:49:54
  the top. The Rays, I just don't know what to think about them.
• 1:49:58
  They always seem to be there, always seem to be doing something,
• 1:50:00
  and how they're doing it, I don't think we'll ever know. So it's
• 1:50:03
  hard to not pick the Rays. But on both the worlds okay, yeah
• 1:50:06
  uh, and then I mean, you guys didn't mention them. But I
• 1:50:10
  think I'm picking the Yankees here that I think with the addition of Juan Soto,
• 1:50:15
  he just takes a lot of heat off of Aaron Judge and I mean
• 1:50:18
  iron already penciled in a bit of a bounce back from Anthony Rizzo. Their
• 1:50:24
  system just produces pictures out of nowhere, and that has been their strength.
• 1:50:28
  I think that the bullpen will still be holding them down. Plus I do
• 1:50:30
  think that this is a great landing spot for Snell or Montgomery in the Bronx,
• 1:50:36
  so I think they've got a little bit more up their sleeve in terms
• 1:50:42
  of who they're going to sign. So I think I think the Yankees do
• 1:50:45
  it this year that they come back up on top. All Right, we'll
• 1:50:47
  see how that how that one ages. I feel like it's gonna age,
• 1:50:49
  like it's definitely going to be the Red Sox now that like nobody gave them
• 1:50:55
  any chance. Yeah. The funny thing is, I think we talked about
• 1:50:58
  how how much we've loved buying from the Red Sox and we're it was like,
• 1:51:00
  well they're still terrible. Wh Yeah, it's a lot of pitching there
• 1:51:03
  though. Yeah, we did pitch. But that will wrap us up on
• 1:51:09
  our AOL East discussion here. Matt, thanks for joining us again. And
• 1:51:13
  actually I didn't mention it at the top, but if you are looking for
• 1:51:15
  Matt on ras Ball, he's actually under Marmo's Dad as his byline names,
• 1:51:20
  so you can find him there. And Matt, let everybody know where they
• 1:51:24
  can find you on socials or anywhere else you want to plug. Yeah.
• 1:51:28
  Sure, first and foremost, I really appreciate the invite boys like it was.
• 1:51:30
  It was great night. Thanks so much for having me. I really
• 1:51:32
  appreciate it. Yeah, I'm on Twitter x whatever Elon's thing is over there
• 1:51:38
  at Marmo's Dad m A R M O S D A D. I'm on
• 1:51:42
  the Blue Sky over there as well, exact same thing. And yeah,
• 1:51:45
  you can find me on ras Ball with the top one hundred pictures coming out
• 1:51:50
  in a week or two. And again that's uh, I think it's Mondays.
• 1:51:56
  That's what Blair was doing last week or last week last year for Trust,
• 1:51:59
  and I am assume it'll be the same schedule. But Trust is going
• 1:52:01
  to send that out I think soon. So yeah. That and then you'd
• 1:52:04
  mentioned before about the subscriptions for the Raswell subscriptions. That's another one that I
• 1:52:10
  that I would I'd say, is a great thing to check out too.
• 1:52:12
  But like I said, thanks so much, guys, it was. It
• 1:52:14
  was a great, great time. Yeah, thank you for coming on.
• 1:52:16
  We had a great time and had lots of laughs, had good some good
• 1:52:20
  wrestling matches that Yeah, no crying. I guess that's maybe the one emotion
• 1:52:25
  that we missed here tonight. But thanks so much for joining us, Matt,
• 1:52:29
  Jeremy. Where can we find you? Yep, just as Matt said
• 1:52:33
  over on Twitter X or whatever we're calling these days, Jay Brewer one seven,
• 1:52:38
  I am not yet on Blue Sky because I'm lazy, but that's okay,
• 1:52:42
  And then you can find me doing top one hundred hitters, hitter profiles
• 1:52:46
  over on Sundays over on ras Ball. We've been rolling for a few weeks
• 1:52:50
  now. If you are following the pod, wait about a week and a
• 1:52:55
  half and I am going deep dives and a lot of the hitters that I'm
• 1:52:58
  talking about on this pod walking through why their buys, why they're sells,
• 1:53:01
  and really what fits. So running through the divisions just like that before releasing
• 1:53:06
  the top one hundred hitters here in about a month. So come read on
• 1:53:12
  the weekends, get the top one hundred hitters before you get the top one
• 1:53:15
  hundred pictures, right. Yeah, And I am Mike Coolard once again.
• 1:53:21
  I can be found on Twitter slash x at m coool seven. Same thing
• 1:53:26
  for Blue Sky. I am there. I sent you the invite code brew
• 1:53:29
  that you still have three times, like three times. So I am going
• 1:53:35
  to be doing waiver wires again, but that won't kick in till the first
• 1:53:39
  week of the season, so until then, obviously you can find me here
• 1:53:43
  on Cards and Categories. You can reach out to the pod at Cards Categories
• 1:53:47
  at gmail dot com or on Twitter slash x at cards Categories. And thanks
• 1:53:55
  again everybody for joining us. This week. You can find us next week,
• 1:53:59
  same time, same place. We appreciate you listening