Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 480 - 3/30/26 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum
Transcript
- 0:0154321 All systems Go with Josh Applebaum starts now.
- 0:13Hello and welcome to Episode. 480 of the all.
- 0:18Systems go sports. Betting podcast powered by.
- 0:21Rhythm, I am your. Host Josh.
- 0:24Applebaum, what's going on? Everyone?
- 0:30Happy Monday. A new week begins.
- 0:32We only got. A couple days.
- 0:34Left in the month of March, but don't worry, the.
- 0:36Madness doesn't end. What is it?
- 0:37Today's the 30th, tomorrow's the 31st. 1st of April here.
- 0:41Coming up on Wednesday, but we got a.
- 0:43Little bit more madness. Here on the horizon got a bit of
- 0:45a break. Because we don't see.
- 0:48The return of March Madness. Until what is it, April 4th?
- 0:51Coming up here on Saturday. With a double header.
- 0:53Illinois and Connecticut, Michigan and Arizona.
- 0:56Already we've seen a little bit of movement toward Michigan.
- 0:59That game was a pick. Or a very short.
- 1:01You know one and. Now it's up to. -1 1/2 with
- 1:04Michigan. I was looking.
- 1:05At the bet splits early and I'll tell you I haven't made.
- 1:07You know any plays already on the game?
- 1:09Because it's so far away and these are both.
- 1:11Short numbers. I did notice that Michigan at.
- 1:14Circa 68. Percent of spread bets 95%.
- 1:18Of spread dollars. With that line move going toward
- 1:20the Wolverines. And that Illinois Connecticut
- 1:23game? Very.
- 1:23Interesting as well, because I tell you what guys.
- 1:26It's going to be maybe an epic, epic fade the trendy dog.
- 1:30Play and I get it. It's hard to bet.
- 1:32Against Connecticut. We'll get to them in a second
- 1:34here. What an insane.
- 1:36Backdoor cover if you. Took.
- 1:37UConn in the points. Yesterday against against the
- 1:41Dookies, who, by the way, I love seeing lose.
- 1:43They're kind of like the Yankees to me.
- 1:45But anyway, if you look at the. Current.
- 1:47Splits here coming up. And again it's.
- 1:49Early, but you're getting around 70.
- 1:51Percent of spread bets. Taking UConn.
- 1:53Plus 2 + 2 1/2. Against Illinois, so we'll see
- 1:56how this. Thing evolves, but a.
- 1:58Trendy dog with UConn. Line move toward Michigan.
- 2:02We'll let the dust settle. Give the public a few days to
- 2:04bet these games. See how they evolve now.
- 2:07Until Saturday. But again.
- 2:08March is ending. April's about to.
- 2:11Be upon us in a couple. Days, but some early.
- 2:13Final four line moves. And just things to to keep track
- 2:16of over the next few days. That being said though, guys, I
- 2:19do. Have a three pack.
- 2:21Of Major League Baseball plays for.
- 2:23You today and I, I'll be. Honest with you, I've been
- 2:25waiting to get. Back into the.
- 2:27Groove of. Three MLB games.
- 2:29A day and just want to say this because.
- 2:30Someone DM me and they said. You bet three games a day, even
- 2:33if there's not value, you force 3.
- 2:34Plays. No, my my goal is just to bet
- 2:37you know less is more and try to isolate games that.
- 2:40Fit our model. And not.
- 2:41Have too many bets, but if you've been with me.
- 2:45Years previously. Once baseball returns.
- 2:47And you got 15 games a day just. Kind of love grinding 3 MLB.
- 2:51Games a day, try to go 2 and one.
- 2:52Eek out winning days just as we did, or tried to do and
- 2:55successfully did through the college basketball season.
- 2:58But. 3 short money line. Favorites in MLB again?
- 3:02Trying to go 2 and one. Eek out a winning day.
- 3:05Looking back toward Friday. And over the weekend, guys, what
- 3:07a weekend it was. Friday's Pod. 2 and 1 + 0. .61
- 3:12units. Had UConn money line against
- 3:14Michigan. State.
- 3:15UConn had a big. Lead coughed it up.
- 3:17And then we're able to hang on there late.
- 3:19And then Tennessee was an epic hit against Iowa State.
- 3:23Tennessee was. Plus 4 1/2 they had a really
- 3:24good rhythm edge. We saw that line to get.
- 3:27Get down to I think. 2 1/2. When Jefferson was ruled out.
- 3:31For Iowa State. Only loser on Friday.
- 3:33Was Alabama getting 9 1/2? And that was frustrating
- 3:36because. A lot of lines got down to like
- 3:389 or even 8 1/2 and Bama was pretty much covering the entire
- 3:42game until Michigan put their pedal to the metal and covered
- 3:4590 to 77. And then the weekend.
- 3:48What a crazy weekend. It was.
- 3:49This is why you just got to stick with and not get too.
- 3:52High or too low, I had a very. Frustrating.
- 3:54Saturday, if you're like. Me.
- 3:56Maybe you're the? Sharp report for a Visen dot.
- 3:58Com or get the. Best bets from Juice Reel?
- 4:01But I went O and two. -2 units. On Saturday and they're.
- 4:04Both incredibly frustrating. Because both teams.
- 4:07Were covering. Pretty much the entire.
- 4:09Time and both teams. Actually had the leads.
- 4:12Deep into these games, so I took.
- 4:13Iowa Plus. 7 1/2. Against Illinois, playing great.
- 4:17All game long and then lost at the end.
- 4:20Lost 7964. Didn't cover the seven.
- 4:22And 1/2 and. Then Purdue.
- 4:24Against Arizona, playing great. All game long.
- 4:27Plus 6 1/2 a lot of books even got down to. 5 1/2.
- 4:30They lose to. Arizona and don't cover the
- 4:33numbers. That was frustrating.
- 4:34But boy, was it a great. Sunday great bounce back. 2 and
- 4:38O + 1. .82 units. I laid the points of.
- 4:42Michigan against Tennessee Michigan was -7 and a.
- 4:46Half up to -8 1/2. And you had not a not a trendy
- 4:50dog with Tennessee, but a clear. Line move a rhythm edge.
- 4:53As well as a Ken Palm edge and Michigan blue doors and won by
- 4:57like. 30 So if you laid the points of Michigan yesterday.
- 5:00Great hit there, but saving the the best for last.
- 5:04Yukon. The Connecticut Huskies?
- 5:07Unbelievable. And as you may know.
- 5:09I am a proud father now, so I got a baby girl who just.
- 5:12Turned 9. Days old today.
- 5:14We just had an. Appointment where we.
- 5:16Wanted to get her. Weight back up a little bit.
- 5:17She was 8. Pounds one ounce when we were.
- 5:19When she was. Born, she got down to 7.
- 5:21Pounds five. Oz and they say.
- 5:23Hey every. Baby loses weight.
- 5:25But we've been really. Focusing on fattening.
- 5:27Her up and. You'll see where I'm going with
- 5:29this in a second, but just found out.
- 5:31That she is back up to. 7 lbs. Eleven and a half oz.
- 5:35So she's in the right direction. But why do I say that?
- 5:37I say that because. I'm holding.
- 5:39Her in my arms. I'm sweating.
- 5:41Yukon Plus 5 1/2. A lot of books, even.
- 5:43Got down to like. You know, 5/4 and 1/2.
- 5:46And the beginning. Of the game terrible.
- 5:48Yukon's down by. 15 points. 19 points.
- 5:51Duke is rolling, but then the Connecticut Huskies as I'm
- 5:54holding my. Daughter in my arms have one of
- 5:56the most. Insane.
- 5:57And I'm just saying cover the game.
- 5:59Just cover the spread. Cover the five.
- 6:00And a half but. Unfreaking.
- 6:02Believable. Caribbean hits the three.
- 6:05And then the most. Insane play you're.
- 6:07Ever going to? See and I'm.
- 6:08Literally holding my. Baby in my arms as this happens.
- 6:11Duke inbounds the ball all. They had to do was hold the
- 6:14ball. And get fouled, you know, 10
- 6:16seconds left there would. Have been like. 76 seconds left.
- 6:19You know, even if you. You know, get.
- 6:21Fouled. Make one or.
- 6:22Both of your. Free throws.
- 6:23You ice the game idiot kid or the boozer kid?
- 6:26I actually feel bad for him and I give the both boozer.
- 6:29Twins credit because they. They face the media and and.
- 6:32And talked afterwards. You see a lot of pro.
- 6:34Athletes, even they screw up and they don't.
- 6:36Want to? Talk to the media, they they
- 6:37face the music. Again, which I almost feel bad
- 6:40about. But just hold the.
- 6:41Ball and here I am like I had I'm not rooting for Duke.
- 6:44It's just like, how is that not drilled?
- 6:46Into your head you hold. The ball, you get fouled
- 6:48instead. The.
- 6:50The the shorter boozer tries to, you know, forward the pass, it
- 6:53gets picked off and then. Caravan with another great.
- 6:56Play. Kicking it back to Mullins.
- 6:58Mullins. Hits pretty much a.
- 7:00You know, 1/2. Court shot buzzer beater.
- 7:03To win the game. I'm going nuts holding my
- 7:05daughter in my hands. One of the greatest covers and
- 7:08outright wins that you're. Ever going to see?
- 7:10And I hate Duke. Again, I've always hated Duke
- 7:13even though I used to work with JJ Reddick with DraftKings.
- 7:15I like JJ Reddick, but just an incredible.
- 7:18Hit there if you had. UConn plus the points.
- 7:21Or if. You had an outright man.
- 7:22What a great outright winner there.
- 7:24But that's about as good as it. Gets in March Madness.
- 7:28So with that being said, guys, we're going to see if we can
- 7:30kick off the week on a winning note and hopefully have a
- 7:33winning Monday. As we steam into.
- 7:35The last couple days. Here in the month of March.
- 7:38So with that being. Said three plays.
- 7:39In MLB and I'm. Excited to get.
- 7:41Back into the grind. Of Major League Baseball.
- 7:43And let me just say. It's a very long.
- 7:45Season. There's ups and downs.
- 7:48You got to be conscious of volume because if you bet too
- 7:50many games every day in. MLB, you're going to have.
- 7:52A lot of swings, you know, good and.
- 7:53Bad, but again, less. Is more and see.
- 7:57If we can just eke out as many winning days all season long
- 8:00betting Major League Baseball so.
- 8:01Three pack overall let's. Waste no more time.
- 8:04And hit the. First one hopefully get a
- 8:06winner. Here to start.
- 8:07I want to focus on A6. 40 PM Early pitch first.
- 8:10Pitch between the Pittsburgh. Pirates and the Cincinnati.
- 8:13Reds. So let's set the stage.
- 8:15Talk. Splits line, move system
- 8:16matches. I'll give you my play.
- 8:17For this one so. We got the pirates.
- 8:20Coming in one and two on the year.
- 8:21Lost. Two or three against the Mets.
- 8:23They did avoid the sweep, though.
- 8:25Winning four to three in extra innings.
- 8:26Yesterday cash as a. Plus 150 row dog.
- 8:29You know, Cincinnati two and one just took.
- 8:32Two or three against my Red Sox. They won yesterday's series.
- 8:35Finale 3 to 2 as a. Plus 1/10.
- 8:37Home Dog. So pitching.
- 8:39Match up here for tonight. Always start with a.
- 8:41Pitching match up Pirates. Are going to go.
- 8:42With the righty. Braxton Ashcraft.
- 8:45Great name by. The Way four and four 2.71 ERA
- 8:48in 2020. 5 I believe he was a second round pick A.
- 8:50Couple years ago. And the Reds are going to go
- 8:53with the righty Chase Burns didn't have a great rookie year.
- 8:56O and three four point. 57 ERA. Last season, but I.
- 9:00Think he was the. 2nd overall. Pick so guys that obviously got
- 9:03some good stuff. Now, what do we see across the
- 9:05board here? Well, this game opened with
- 9:07Cincinnati. Listed as a pretty.
- 9:08Short. -120 - 1. 25 home. Favorite Pittsburgh around a.
- 9:13Plus 100 + 105. Road Dog.
- 9:16And we've seen line. Movement in favor of.
- 9:19The red legs. I'm going red.
- 9:20Legs, guys. Short money line here.
- 9:22We've seen. Cincinnati get steamed up. -120.
- 9:25-125 up to -130 -, 130. 5 S pretty clear.
- 9:30Line move and all liability in. Favor of the Reds.
- 9:34In particular, I really like the bet splits at.
- 9:36Circa if you go to Circa and shout out to.
- 9:38The team at V sin again I I. Do this pod.
- 9:40I'm an author, whatever. Podcast host.
- 9:43Analyst. But I also work.
- 9:44For V sin. So if you ever want to get those
- 9:46updated bet splits. Bets in dollars from DraftKings
- 9:49and Circa. You can always get it.
- 9:51Vsin.com. But the cool thing is that.
- 9:53They just revamped. The team at V.
- 9:55Sin the whole. Bet splits page so.
- 9:57It looks a lot better, it's much clearer.
- 9:59But anyway, at circa. The Reds are getting 25% of
- 10:02money line. Bets.
- 10:04But 66%? Of money line dollars.
- 10:06So a nice low. Bets higher dollars split from
- 10:09the sharps in Vegas. The line is moving toward.
- 10:11Cincinnati. Then we get to our.
- 10:14System matches quite a few here. Jumped out to me.
- 10:17When both teams are coming off a win, which is the case here and
- 10:20again. If you've done seasons of.
- 10:21MLB with me before. You're going to, you know, kind
- 10:23of. Remember all these systems?
- 10:25With that, we used to play. But both teams coming off a win.
- 10:28Take the home team. That system has gone 115 and 70.
- 10:32361%. With an 11% ROI.
- 10:36Since the start of last year. You also get Monday home teams
- 10:39with line movement in their favor.
- 10:41They're 1449560. Percent, 4% ROI.
- 10:45Since 2025. Home favorites just in general
- 10:47this year 25 and 1268. Percent 7%.
- 10:52ROI this season. So all these systems are
- 10:54letting. Up on the Reds.
- 10:56Cincinnati, if you. Layer in a few.
- 10:58More factors and I'm not. Going to get into.
- 10:59It so early in the season, guys like you know when we get a
- 11:02bigger. Sample size, we'll talk.
- 11:03You know, batting average. Versus lefties home.
- 11:05Road, you know, bullpenny. Raa lot of this stuff.
- 11:08There's just not a big sample size to draw.
- 11:10Huge conclusions. With, but we will.
- 11:12Get to that, but couple things I really like or or one in
- 11:16particular. A correlative betting play.
- 11:18Favorite low total, remember. If we're betting a.
- 11:21Favorite we typically. Want a lower?
- 11:23Total game so. You can always think of eight.
- 11:25And 1/2. As your average total.
- 11:27You know NFL. Usually like maybe like. 40. 5
- 11:30is an average total if you are in.
- 11:32Baseball 8 or less. Is a low total. 9 or more.
- 11:36Is a high total. And if we're on a favorite?
- 11:39We typically want a lower. Total because the fewer.
- 11:41Amount of expected run scored. More likely.
- 11:44To come from the quote UN quote better team was expected to win.
- 11:47So we got a line move toward the Reds.
- 11:49We got a great bet split at Circa.
- 11:51We have a bunch of system matches, correlative betting.
- 11:53Favorite low total? We also have rhythm.
- 11:56I want to mention that rhythm. Does have.
- 11:58All these MLB. Systems locked and loaded.
- 12:01In the app. And rhythm also.
- 12:03Has a recommended. Play on the Reds.
- 12:05With a predicted score of 4 to 3.2.
- 12:09So a four to three type game? But.
- 12:11Model here is lighting up on Cincinnati so.
- 12:14You can get red legs around -130 is probably your best number.
- 12:18Here in the market. Again, shop around, a lot of
- 12:20books are at -135. But take advantage of these odds
- 12:23boost. I told you guys about this
- 12:24earlier. If you, especially if you follow
- 12:27the. Plays on juice rail.
- 12:28You'll see a little. Lightning bolt icon that means.
- 12:31It was boosted. So I actually got.
- 12:33Cincinnati plus one. 16 and I got.
- 12:36That because at FanDuel. They're offering this 50.
- 12:38Percent odds. Boost and again, why wouldn't?
- 12:40You take it, you know you got it if.
- 12:42They're. Offering it to you.
- 12:43And a lot of. Times.
- 12:44It'll say, oh, it's. Just for.
- 12:46You know, March. 30th or this day or that day?
- 12:48But take advantage. That's the point of having.
- 12:50Multiple outs like every. Book might be at. -130.
- 12:53But one book is. -130. With an odds boost, so I did
- 12:56get. Technically Cincinnati plus one.
- 12:5916. With that odds boost at FanDuel
- 13:01and the other thing is not. Only do you have one one of
- 13:04multiple? Outs but if you're.
- 13:06If you haven't done it yet and you open up.
- 13:07A. Multiple accounts of different
- 13:08books. You're going to get a lot of
- 13:10these. Bonus bets as well, so take
- 13:11advantage of the boost the bonuses.
- 13:13But we'll call Cincinnati around -130.
- 13:16Again. At FanDuel you can boost them to
- 13:18+1. 16 but first. Bit on the board for me.
- 13:20Let's do it. For Pete Rose.
- 13:22Pete Rose. Sat on attack.
- 13:24Pete Rose. You get it.
- 13:26One of the greatest jokes of all time.
- 13:28Which came from my. Buddy's grandfather.
- 13:31Which I'll never forget. But.
- 13:32First play for me, red legs on the money.
- 13:34Line -130 again you could. Get them boosted to plus 1/16.
- 13:38Another early game here. Let's go down to.
- 13:40Miami, 6:40 PM. Eastern Time, first pitch, we
- 13:43got the white. Sox visiting.
- 13:45The Marlins now. Setting the stage for this one
- 13:48the Chai Sox. O and three.
- 13:49Just got swept by the Brew Crew. They lost yesterday's series.
- 13:53Finale 9 to 7 as a + 140 road dog.
- 13:55Had a lead. Coughed it up late there.
- 13:58You look at the Marlins though, 3 and O just swept the Rockies.
- 14:01They won. Four to three yesterday as a -,
- 14:03190 home favorite and they were down.
- 14:05Late and came back as well so this.
- 14:08Interleague series opener. The Chai Sox are going with the.
- 14:10Ready. Davis, Martin.
- 14:12He went 7 and 10 with A4. .1 O. ERA last year.
- 14:15Meanwhile, the Marlins, they're going to go with the ready Chris
- 14:17Paddock. He went 5:00 and 12:00.
- 14:19With A5. .35 era. Last year.
- 14:23So. What do we see across the
- 14:24market? List game open Miami.
- 14:26Listed around a -, 130 home. Favorite some books were.
- 14:30Even a little bit. Lower I saw. -120.
- 14:32Five out there. With Chicago around a + 110 Rd.
- 14:35Dog but. Kind of like we saw that.
- 14:37Line move towards Cincy. Same thing here lines.
- 14:40Moving toward Miami because Miami is gone from around -120.
- 14:445 -, 130. Now up to -135.
- 14:47And I see some books. Even higher like -140.
- 14:50So first indicator. Lines.
- 14:51Going to the fish. Next we look at the bet splits.
- 14:54Over at Circa. Paying attention to wise guys in
- 14:57the. Desert you look at circa.
- 14:59Right now, Miami's getting. Only 50% of money on.
- 15:02Bets SO 5050 but 60. 5. Percent of the money is on
- 15:06Miami. So tells us a low.
- 15:07Bets higher dollar split undecided public heavy smart
- 15:10money going. With the fish.
- 15:12Then we get into our system matches.
- 15:13Quite a few here. A lot of them that also split up
- 15:16on. Cincinnati.
- 15:17But here's a different one if you look at.
- 15:21Non division home favorites off a win who are -150 or less and
- 15:25the line moves in their favor. So I know these are kind of
- 15:27wonky. But just think about it non
- 15:29division. So lack of familiarity.
- 15:31Benefits the better team. Home.
- 15:32Favorites you got home. Field and.
- 15:34Last at bat. You're -1. 50 or less, so you're
- 15:37not. Laying a huge number.
- 15:38And the lines moving in your favor.
- 15:39Tells me. The betting market is is
- 15:41supporting you. Those teams since the start of
- 15:43last year. One O 4 and 5560. 1%, 9% ROI.
- 15:49When both teams missed the playoffs.
- 15:51The previous year. So both Chicago.
- 15:53And Miami missed the. Playoffs take very simply.
- 15:56The interleague. Favorite that system is one O 2
- 15:59and. 6063. Percent, 5% ROI.
- 16:01Since 2025. We got our home.
- 16:03Favorite system match 60. 8% this season.
- 16:07We also have. Game 1A home.
- 16:09Favorite with big Steam. $0.10 or more.
- 16:12Those teams are three. And one this year.
- 16:14And they're 67. Percent with a 3% ROI since the
- 16:17start of. Last year.
- 16:19And Monday, home teams with a line move. 60% four percent ROI
- 16:22since. The start of last year, so.
- 16:23All those systems are letting up.
- 16:25On Miami Miami also. Has qualitative.
- 16:28Betting favorite low total. So total this one.
- 16:30Is 8 again for. Your amount of expected.
- 16:32Run scored more likely. To come from quote UN quote that
- 16:34better team. You also have that.
- 16:36Inter league match up so. Lack of.
- 16:38Familiarity benefiting the better team.
- 16:40Based upon the record. Or the.
- 16:42Price of the odds. And then lastly.
- 16:44Miami's pitching. Hopefully they can.
- 16:47Pitch well tonight. They have posted.
- 16:49Aera of two. So far this year.
- 16:51Chicago's team ERA 10.13. So line move, great splits at
- 16:56circa system matches, favorite low total, better pitching staff
- 17:00and. Then.
- 17:01Lastly, popped open rhythm and noticed a.
- 17:04Green Star recommended. Money line play on Miami.
- 17:08With a predicted score of 4.5 to 3. .1.
- 17:11So, second play of the night. For me.
- 17:13Let's go fish. Money line around -130.
- 17:17Again, they're creeping up now to like.
- 17:18Closer to -140 last. Bat of the Night.
- 17:22Let's go to. Old Milwaukee. 7:40 PM.
- 17:26First pitch we got. The Tampa Bay Rays.
- 17:28Facing the Milwaukee. Brew Crew.
- 17:30Now setting the stage for this one, the rays are.
- 17:32One and two on the year. They lost two or three against
- 17:34the Cardinals did avoid the sweep.
- 17:36Though they won. 11:00 to 7:00. And yesterday's series finale.
- 17:39Took care of business. As a -, 120 Rd.
- 17:41Favorite. Meanwhile, the brew.
- 17:43Crew 3 and O. Again, they're doing it again
- 17:45that you can't name a lot of the players other than Yelich.
- 17:48Or Contreras, the catcher. But they find ways to win.
- 17:51The three and O. Just swept the white.
- 17:54Sox won nine to seven yesterday as a - 165 home favorite.
- 17:58So tonight's. Interleague series opener.
- 18:00We got the Rays going with the ready Nick Martinez.
- 18:03He went. 11 and 14 with a 4.4. 5 ERA this year or last year I
- 18:07should say, and the Brew crew. Are going to lefty.
- 18:09Kyle Harrison. 1:00 and 1:00. 4 point O 4 ERA in 2025 what do
- 18:15we. See across the market.
- 18:16Well, this game opened with. Milwaukee around a -. 140 Home
- 18:20favorite Tampa. Bay around a.
- 18:21Plus 1/20. Road Dog.
- 18:24And we've seen nothing but line movement.
- 18:26In favor of the brew crew, Brew crew have gotten.
- 18:28Bet up -1. 40. To now -1. 50.
- 18:33And it looks like. They're kind of getting steamed
- 18:34as we speak. I'm seeing some books get up.
- 18:36To -160. So I did jump on the Brew Crew a
- 18:39little bit earlier today. Got them at -145.
- 18:44So if you haven't bet it yet. Lines getting.
- 18:46Worse on you, but. Good sign that that.
- 18:48Milwaukee keeps. Getting hit by sharp action.
- 18:51Look at the splits. 83% bets. 84% dollars at.
- 18:54DK So just. You know, heavy.
- 18:56Pro and Joe, but like this split at Circa.
- 18:59Milwaukee's getting 60. 7% of bets, 96% of money line.
- 19:05Dollars so great split. From the sharps out in Vegas and
- 19:08again, looks like they're getting steamed as we speak.
- 19:11Bunch of system matches here. Non non division home.
- 19:14Favorite off a win -1? 50 or less, although.
- 19:16Now they're getting steamed. That may no longer apply.
- 19:18That system was 60. 1% nine percent ROI.
- 19:22Since 2025, we got both off a win.
- 19:24Take the home. Team 61.
- 19:26Percent, 11% ROI since. The start of last year.
- 19:29We also have that. Game one Steam.
- 19:32Of a new series. Also lighting up on.
- 19:34Milwaukee and we also. Have a favorite low total?
- 19:37So we have a. Total here of eight.
- 19:38That's juiced under. Some books getting down to 7.
- 19:41And 1/2. Looks like a some under steam
- 19:43coming in. Which would again benefit.
- 19:46Hopefully Milwaukee favorite low total lastly pitching.
- 19:50Staff, we have a. 3.33 ERA for the brew.
- 19:53Crew 6. .84 for the race. But I love the.
- 19:57Fact that this line. Continues to steam.
- 19:59Toward Milwaukee. So shop around again.
- 20:02I got minus. 145 Milwaukee. It looks like your best price.
- 20:07I'm seeing a -150. From the score, but I'm seeing
- 20:11other books get up to -160 even -165 S.
- 20:14Certainly shop around, have those multiple outs, try to find
- 20:17the best. Price but I.
- 20:19Got the brew crew -145. South Miami, Cincinnati,
- 20:23Milwaukee. Let's scratch and claw.
- 20:25Try. To get.
- 20:26Two out of three. And eke out a winning night.
- 20:29So that about does. It for episode 4. 80 of the all.
- 20:32Systems go sports betting podcast powered by rhythm.
- 20:36This is the part of the pod where.
- 20:36We wrap things up and I always. Start first by saying.
- 20:39Thank you. Thank you for listening, thank
- 20:41you for tuning in, thank you for grinding in the arena with me
- 20:44every single day, through the UPS and the downs, the good and
- 20:47the. Bad.
- 20:48The terrible bad. Beats the incredible Yukon.
- 20:50Backdoor covers. We just got to.
- 20:52Continue to grind, stay the course.
- 20:54But if this podcast has. Hopefully help.
- 20:57To catch a couple tickets make you think about betting a
- 20:59little. Bit differently.
- 21:01You want to maybe? Help me grow this.
- 21:02Podcast which? Would always be nice.
- 21:04There a couple. Things you can do to make my day
- 21:06one. Just give this podcast a 5 star.
- 21:08Review if you're listening on. Spotify or iTunes?
- 21:11Five stars would be very helpful.
- 21:13To continue to grow. The pod and rise up the charts
- 21:16you can also. Recommend the pod to a friend.
- 21:18You click the review button. And leave a comment if you feel
- 21:21so inclined. Click the Follow button.
- 21:23Or you could retweet the pod or. Give it a like on Twitter when I
- 21:26put it out every afternoon from at Josh under Score Insights on
- 21:29Twitter. Next, if you enjoy the.
- 21:31Style of sports betting. Breakdown.
- 21:33Data-driven. Sharp contrarian betting
- 21:36focusing. On line movement bet split
- 21:38system matches. Focusing on what the market is
- 21:40telling us. Not what our bias.
- 21:41Is telling us. If this style of betting has
- 21:43appealed to you. Maybe you?
- 21:45Want to learn more about data-driven betting?
- 21:47We have someone in your life who could use some data-driven tips.
- 21:50Or maybe you just want to make my day and support the team.
- 21:52Well, I'd love for you to go to Amazon.com.
- 21:55And type in. One of two things, or both of
- 21:57them? You could type in.
- 21:59The NFL sharp betting playbook. Or you could type in the.
- 22:02Everything Guide to sports. Betting those are the 2.
- 22:04Books that I've written, Very proud of both, but if you want
- 22:06to buy one. Or both of them.
- 22:08Bring them the sports book. I'll sign them for.
- 22:10You buy a beer, we'll get a hot dog.
- 22:12And some Cracker Jacks. And sweat some MLB.
- 22:14Tonight Next have you downloaded Rhythm and Juice?
- 22:18Reel yet? Well, they're my two favorite
- 22:19sports betting apps. They help me win.
- 22:21They're going to. Help you win.
- 22:22So rhythm is fantastic. For their AI.
- 22:24Backed models and predictions for game bets.
- 22:26And player props reminder. MLB is live in the app, so if
- 22:30you are. Looking for some MLB predictions
- 22:32and edges which. I'll be referencing every day
- 22:34when. We talk MLB, you can find them.
- 22:37From in the Rhythm app now. Also Juice Reel.
- 22:41So many great features from the juice.
- 22:42Reel app. You can sync.
- 22:43Up your sports books. Get a running.
- 22:44Report card of your action. You can also get the robo.
- 22:47Jackson best bet picks. The sharp mush indicators.
- 22:50The arbitrage plays the shop for the best.
- 22:52Line futures or if you. Really want to.
- 22:53Be a hero and make my day. You can support the pod and tip
- 22:56your podcast host. By getting the ASG.
- 23:00Official best bet picks from the juice reel app.
- 23:02It cost you 4. 99 a week. No, not. $499 a week, $4.99 a
- 23:09week. So 5 bucks a cup of coffee,
- 23:12you'll support the pod, you'll get the plays earlier in the
- 23:14day. For example, if you got those
- 23:16plays for 5 bucks a week, you would have gotten.
- 23:19Milwaukee This. Morning -145 now they're closer
- 23:22to. Like -160.
- 23:23So if you want to sign up. I'd very much appreciate.
- 23:26That and you can of course always get the the other
- 23:29features there as well. But download rhythm download.
- 23:32Juice Real give them a five star review.
- 23:34In the app. Store next you.
- 23:36Have a live odds. Page Well, if you don't have
- 23:38one, you need one. You got to be able.
- 23:40To track the market. Know some very.
- 23:42Basic things when you're breaking on a game.
- 23:43And trying to. Handicap a game.
- 23:45What are all the games available to bet?
- 23:46Today, what are the start times I need live scoring?
- 23:49Once the games get going I need live in game.
- 23:51Wagering odds I need. To know what the line opened at.
- 23:54Opening column never. Changes on the odds.
- 23:56Logic live odds page. Then you get all the current
- 23:58odds to the right quickly. See which?
- 24:00Direction the line is moved. Pull up the line history.
- 24:02Shop for the best number, find the best price.
- 24:05You can do all of this. With the odds logic live odds
- 24:08page. So if you.
- 24:09Ever want to give it a shot? I would highly recommend it.
- 24:11Maybe you have an odds page already?
- 24:13But it's really expensive. And you want to save some money?
- 24:16Or maybe you have one? And it's.
- 24:17Free, but it's delayed. You don't know where the the
- 24:20numbers. Are coming from you.
- 24:21Have no. Good books to follow.
- 24:23Or maybe you don't. Have one at all and you want to
- 24:25test one out. Well, if any of that is the.
- 24:27Case. Just type in this link.
- 24:29It's odds logic dot. Com slash Josh 12.
- 24:33Three, that'll give you a 7 day free trial.
- 24:36And 50% off your first month of service.
- 24:39Lastly. Have you heard about Profit XI
- 24:42have teamed up with Profit X? They are A.
- 24:44Betting exchange and the. Beauty of a.
- 24:46Profit X betting exchange is that you're.
- 24:48Going to get better juice prices so.
- 24:51Because you're going up against an exchange against.
- 24:53Other betters. That means you're not.
- 24:55Going up against. The house and the house is going
- 24:57to. Charge you -115 -, 120.
- 25:00Heavy juice prices you. Go to the betting exchange
- 25:03pretty much every game you look at.
- 25:04You might get plus one O 5 -, 1 O 3.
- 25:07Plus one O 2. -1 O 6 and the whole point there is by getting
- 25:11better numbers. And if you win, you're not going
- 25:13to get kicked out or booted. But by getting better numbers
- 25:15and laying less juice on a favorite and getting.
- 25:18More plus money juice. On a dog you.
- 25:20Can win at a. The same exact rate that you
- 25:23would at DraftKings. FanDuel, whatever the case.
- 25:25May be, but actually. Make more money because you're.
- 25:27Risking less juice, therefore. You're making more on the back.
- 25:30End so I'd. Love for you guys.
- 25:32To download Profit X. And use promo code.
- 25:35Josh to get a. Deposit match 20% for whatever.
- 25:39You put in, so if you. Deposit 100.
- 25:41Bucks to fund your. Profit X account.
- 25:43They'll tack on 20 if. You use that.
- 25:44Promo code Josh. So that about does it.
- 25:47For episode 4. 80 of the all. Systems Go sports betting
- 25:50podcast on a big Monday. As always guys 2.
- 25:53Final thoughts one. Whether I.
- 25:55See you at the. Borgata in Atlantic.
- 25:57City Twin River in Rhode Island, the Brooklyn, New Hampshire,
- 26:00Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun down in Connecticut.
- 26:02At the Encore in Boston Plain Ridge Park.
- 26:04Casino MGM Springfield or the Nash and my.
- 26:07Neck of the. Woods on the.
- 26:08Border of Massachusetts. In New Hampshire or?
- 26:10Out in the desert where the true grinders get down.
- 26:12Or Billy. Walters sends his number
- 26:14runners. Where the lowest juice.
- 26:15Possible is found at the South. Point.
- 26:17Or sweating sharp contrarian plays.
- 26:18Jumping in the stadium swimming pool when he cashed a big ticket
- 26:21at Circo. Wherever it may be, you're going
- 26:24to walk up to me. And you were going to show me?
- 26:26A Yukon money line from. Friday a Tennessee.
- 26:29Plus the points from. Friday or a Michigan -7 F
- 26:33yesterday. Or you know what guys, you know,
- 26:35all those tickets are great. Awesome winners recently.
- 26:38But nothing better. Than UConn plus 5 1/2.
- 26:42I mean, seriously. That's why you love sports.
- 26:44That's why there's no better, you know, thrill.
- 26:47Of. Being down, coming back.
- 26:49And again I'm like. OK, you know even.
- 26:51If they foul. You know, they're down.
- 26:53They're down. Three, they can.
- 26:54Foul they you know Duke can make their.
- 26:56Two free throws. I got 5 1/2.
- 26:58That'll be a 5. Point game.
- 27:00Just just seeing not only the bet cash plus 5 1/2 UConn, but
- 27:03seeing those, those. Dookies.
- 27:05Man, I I. Love that would like.
- 27:07When the when Duke. Loses.
- 27:08It's like the Montreal Canadiens losing.
- 27:10It's like the New York Yankees losing.
- 27:13There's nothing. Better.
- 27:14For a guy like me who's a a Boston guy.
- 27:17But show me a. UConn ticket, first one.
- 27:19'S on me. Next one's on you will post
- 27:21about the book and sweatshop contrarian place all night long.
- 27:24So as always, guys coming off a winning weekend, a losing
- 27:27weekend, a hot streak, a cold streak.
- 27:29Whether we're getting epic, epic backdoor covers like UConn or
- 27:32terrible bad. Beats teams, you know.
- 27:35Covering all game and blowing it.
- 27:36Like Iowa and Purdue on Saturday?
- 27:38Whatever the case may be, we just got to stay even keeled.
- 27:41Never get too high when. Things are going well.
- 27:43Never get too low. When things are going against
- 27:45us, we got to. Stick to the model.
- 27:47Stick to the. Blueprint bypass the games that
- 27:50have red flags. Get down on the.
- 27:51Games that are checking off our boxes.
- 27:54And those are games that have. A couple things in our in our
- 27:57direction. We're looking for games that are
- 27:59against the public. With the house, with the pros.
- 28:02Flat bet, avoid parlays and get that CLV.
- 28:05If we can do that, we're going to be successful.
- 28:07Sports betters so hope everyone had a great weekend.
- 28:10I hope you have an even better Monday to start.
- 28:12Your week. Let's go Miami.
- 28:14Cincy, Milwaukee. And I'll be.
- 28:15Right back at it. Tomorrow, for a big Tuesday
- 28:18edition, that'll be. Episode 481.
- 28:20Of the all systems go sports betting podcast powered by
- 28:24rhythm. Good luck everybody, and I'll
- 28:26see you. On the diamond tonight.
- 28:27Good luck.