Latest / The SME Stream / Shane Solly: Harbour Asset Management spokesperson explains how Trump's policy announcements are impacting capital markets

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Shane Solly: Harbour Asset Management spokesperson explains how Trump's policy announcements are impacting capital markets · The SME Stream

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Shane solely from Harbor Asset Management is with us this
• 0:03
  Speaker 1: evening go out of Shane. Let's take a little bit
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: of a look at the markets and are we at
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  Speaker 1: maximum Trump government policy uncertainty for the capital markets now?
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: Have the capital markets reacted to recent US policy announcements?
• 0:15
  Speaker 2: Well, I think the quick quick statement is we're not sure.
• 0:19
  Speaker 2: We haven't seen anything that could come down the line.
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  Speaker 2: But what we're seeing is President elect Trump as policy announced.
• 0:25
  Speaker 2: They're certainly causing some choppiness and capital markets, but the
• 0:28
  Speaker 2: trend has actually been more positive in the headlines. We
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  Speaker 2: actually saw the US shear market, for example, up just
• 0:33
  Speaker 2: under six percent of November. And one of the things
• 0:35
  Speaker 2: that happened in the later in the month was mister
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  Speaker 2: Trump picked a guy called Scott percent to be Treasury Secretary,
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  Speaker 2: and he was taken as being a sort of a
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  Speaker 2: seasoned choice that might could stabilize markets and be a
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  Speaker 2: little more considered on terms of terrifs and text cuts.
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  Speaker 3: He actually saw long term bond yards fall, shear marker
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  Speaker 3: go up.
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  Speaker 2: But then of course mister Trump doubled down with his
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  Speaker 2: discussion about putting Tarraf's additional terrorists in China, which we
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  Speaker 2: had already thought about, but then slipping aunt of twenty
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  Speaker 2: five percent tariffs on Canada and Mexico, and that really
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  Speaker 2: got people excited. And obviously he's targeting migrants and legal
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  Speaker 2: drugs came across the borders. That that Bush to add
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  Speaker 2: tariffs on to Canada and Mexico, it has implications for
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  Speaker 2: supply chains, even for companies like Fisher and Pipe Bolcare
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  Speaker 2: that manufacture out of Mexico. So yeah, it's we're in
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  Speaker 2: for a few more weeks of policy announcements that could
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  Speaker 2: surprise investors. A good example is, you know, whether Robert
• 1:29
  Speaker 2: IF Kennedy Junior gets confirmed as the Department of Health
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  Speaker 2: and Human Services, and that would cause a little bit
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  Speaker 2: of uncertainty for investors. And I think probably that we've
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  Speaker 2: got to keep watching our Trump media truths social media
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  Speaker 2: platform to find out what mister Trump's going to be next.
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: Yeah, back home, Shane, are you seeing signs that the
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  Speaker 1: New Zealand economy might just be reawakening from its slumber
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  Speaker 1: a recent reserve bank rate cuts driving more consumer and
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  Speaker 1: business confidence.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, look, I think you know it's a good point
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  Speaker 2: you raised, Jack, that we have sort of weathered one
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  Speaker 2: of the Central Bank interest rate increased cycles globally, when
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  Speaker 2: we look around the world, we really took a better medicine.
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  Speaker 2: But more recently we've seen business and consumer confidence bounced
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  Speaker 2: back in the last few weeks. That is certainly reserved
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  Speaker 2: Bank cutting official rates. That reduces the interest costs for borrowers,
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  Speaker 2: but there might be a couple of other factors giving
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  Speaker 2: us a bit of a boost as well. Diairy pretty
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  Speaker 2: solid diary season, an unusual combination of high volume production
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  Speaker 2: and good firm pricing. And yes, the dairy farmers out
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  Speaker 2: there will be telling me the cost of producing a
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  Speaker 2: gone up, but it's still a benefit and that may
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  Speaker 2: trickle down. We are seeing some signs of recovery in
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  Speaker 2: China's economic activity. It's not huge yet, but even over
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  Speaker 2: the weekend we saw these lead indicators.
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  Speaker 3: There's purchasing manager and this is.
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  Speaker 2: They were up above fifty, which suggests the economies at
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  Speaker 2: least expanding again after some stimulus that's amounts. And then
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  Speaker 2: finally we've had a bit of a next lot of
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  Speaker 2: data on construction activity in New Zealand. We saw October
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  Speaker 2: building permits down five point two percent of the month,
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  Speaker 2: down to almost sixteen percent for the twelve months of
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  Speaker 2: October to thirty two thousand starts here in New Zealand
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  Speaker 2: of homes. But against that, we've also seen as a
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  Speaker 2: reserve bank, he's marginallying starting to pick up, which you
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  Speaker 2: saw a thirty percent increase in October in the same
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  Speaker 2: month in twenty twenty three, with investors actually shown a
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  Speaker 2: bit of spy. So it's mixed, but we are seeing
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  Speaker 2: some green shoots coming through and our shipmaker here not
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  Speaker 2: as exciting as the US market was actually up three
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  Speaker 2: point four percent over the month of November, so the
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  Speaker 2: market looks forward.
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  Speaker 1: Yeah, So what announcements are you keeping an eye on
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  Speaker 1: this week?
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, Look, it's going to be another week where we
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  Speaker 2: watch what happens to the US data, particularly job opening
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  Speaker 2: data out tomorrow and on Friday business called the payroll data.
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  Speaker 2: And this is all about getting some medications for what
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  Speaker 2: the US Vigul Reserve, which is the US Central Bank,
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  Speaker 2: might do with official rates on the eighteenth of December,
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  Speaker 2: and the market sort of unwound.
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  Speaker 3: Expectations of big cuts.
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  Speaker 2: It's only about twenty or point two of a percent
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  Speaker 2: cut in priced in now, so that'll be interesting. Wednesday,
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  Speaker 2: We've got secret you can make data out of Australia
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  Speaker 2: and China obviously two key trade partners for New Zealand.
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  Speaker 2: We've also got some company US similarly the dairy producer
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  Speaker 2: which is seen a little bit of financial pressure recently.
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  Speaker 2: Then due to report to the annual Shield to meet
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  Speaker 2: on Wednesday. We're also going to invest to Day from Somerset,
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  Speaker 2: the retirement village operated on Wednesday and again that might
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  Speaker 2: get a bit of insight into their future. Friday we
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  Speaker 2: wrap up with doesn't sound very exciting, but it's actually
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  Speaker 2: quite important. Is the Australian S and p A six
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  Speaker 2: two hundred index, which is the main benchmark Australian investors
• 4:41
  Speaker 2: used to decide what she is to invest in. And
• 4:43
  Speaker 2: there's some suggestion that Fletcher Buildings but could be removed
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  Speaker 2: from that, which may actually see some more selling than
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  Speaker 2: those two stocks from Australian investors.
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  Speaker 3: So yeah, busy week, Jack.
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  Speaker 1: Yeah, very good. Hey, thanks Shane, appreciate it. Shane solid
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: there from Harbor Asset Management