Latest / The Weekly Run / The Pumpkin Industrial Complex | #34
Transcript
- Jeff Perera: Welcome to the weekly run. I'm Jeff. Aaron: I'm Aaron Jeff Perera: And we are talking about what's hot at Jeff's Bagel Run. And this week, pumpkin season is still on my mind because we've officially launched and the bagels are there, the cream cheeses, the coffees, all the deliciousness. And it makes me wonder, like who decides when fall starts? Aaron: I think it depends on, I I think categorically there's a couple of different people that are, part of this decision making process. If you're talking about retail stores, you know, fall starts in August when they have to turn over lines, right? Like the bathing suits are out, you know, by you know, a couple of weeks after Fourth of July. So I saw Halloween candy in the grocery store the other day. So I know that they're already well on their way. But yeah, when do When do you get to decide? When is when is the time? It's not on the official calendar. Jeff Perera: So if we're talking about Like solstice to solstice, equinox to equinox. So I mean like we're like thirty thirty Aaron: I'm sure. This is the we're not qualified for this conversation, but Jeff Perera: something days away from the actual start of autumn the season. I think Aaron: Mm-hmm. Jeff Perera: it's September twenty-first or twenty-second. So we're about a month away from the the physical change on the planet. Aaron: Well, and as a transplant from the Northeast to Florida, I would argue that it never really happens. So, you know, there's that too. Jeff Perera: No, we have we have there's like there's like three seasons, right? Hot, hotter, hottest here. That's it. In Aaron: Yes, exactly. Exactly. Jeff Perera: the northeast, they mark the calendars by Labor Day. Aaron: This is true. This is true. We we it's very much driven by we're very big in our transitions and it's like you need a nice holiday to sort of mark like, okay, before this holiday, it's you know, it's it's this time and then boom, it's done. Because the weather will sort of cheat you as well. you know, you might get sort of an extended summer and there's air quotes there about like again, comparative summer, but generally the weather turns Pretty distinctly. It's like you get a couple of nice it's the opposite from here. We get a couple nice a little bit hot, and then it's cold, cold, and colder. Jeff Perera: Yeah, so I I just I I feel like every year pumpkin seems to start a little earlier. And we were about a week behind Dunkin' Donuts and I think Panera Bread as a brand. Starbucks officially launches their menu tomorrow. Or maybe Aaron: Ooh, late. Jeff Perera: yeah. So we were recording Monday, so they're launching on Tuesday the twenty fifth. So we're a day ahead of Starbucks, but It feels wrong. I love it and I know you are a pumpkin guy. I almost called you a pumpkin girly. But you're like you Aaron: Sure. Jeff Perera: love pumpkin. You're like here for this season. You probably already got Aaron: Yeah. Jeff Perera: your pumpkin pie bagel for the day and you're ready to get it every day this week, but like you were you don't care when it starts. You just glad it does. Aaron: Well yes, but there is a limit. We haven't found it yet. We haven't found it yet. I'm good for this week. I will go get I'll I'll go eat pumpkin this week. So let's not pretend that that that we've reached the limit. But I do theoretically I believe in a a theoretical limit where we can take it too far. so I also really like peppermint. Love peppermint. At Christmas. I love candy canes. Just to be you know, explicit about it. But I have no interest in eating a candy cane outside of November and December and then maybe a little bit of a a candy cane hangover in January, right? Just 'cause you've got still left over for Christmas. But come February, I'm done. So outside of those three months, I really don't want candy canes, but I can't get enough of them during Christmas. And I feel like pumpkin's the same sort of thing. If I If I'm at the beach and you're trying to feed me pumpkin, I don't know if I'm ready for it. Jeff Perera: I didn't know you liked peppermint. Wow. Can candy cane specifically? Aaron: Yes. Love it. Candy canes. Candy canes. I mean I like I like I like peppermint in general, but I love Jeff Perera: But Aaron: candy canes at Christmas. Explicitly. So Jeff Perera: Okay. Aaron: I clearly I am a seasonal flavor person. I don't this there's a deeper analysis there. But there's a point Jeff Perera: Yeah. I But I Aaron: when it's too early. Jeff Perera: I feel the same way about s'mores. I feel like the s'mores No they're not. They're campfire. They're like summer. Aaron: What? S'mores are all the time. You can't you can't put s'mores on a Jeff Perera: Like they're to me they're like to me s'mores like quintessential summer. Out by a campfire, doing marshmallows, Aaron: Really interesting. Jeff Perera: chocolate, yeah, yeah, yeah. So like it's hard for me to get Aaron: So you don't get s'mores in in when way I don't know, like when when is an off season when is sm when are s'mores out of bounds for you? Jeff Perera: I think s'mores start to go out of bounds in October. Aaron: Into the like like after October you can't have some more Jeff Perera: Like haul like h like as we start to get into like the Halloween tech like the full blown Halloween season, I feel like s'mores are sort of out. Aaron: I don't know, man. I don't know. That's a powerful statement. Jeff Perera: But you're also not gonna find me like asking you for a candy cane in September either. So that's fair. So I don't know. Aaron: I just I never thought about it. So that's an interesting thought then. Kind of going back to your original point. Who like is this just our collective consciousness as a society? Sets these down and then we pick these dates? Or is this a retail thing? Is this a hallmark? Jeff Perera: Well this is where my this is where my head went when I was thinking about Aaron: Yeah. Jeff Perera: like the pumpkin launch starting today and you know, this is pumpkin season. Is there actually demand for it? Or did the retail industrial complex create it? Aaron: Hmm. Well, may ask you this like if you were offered pumpkin in March, would you eat it? Or is it have to let me let me reframe. Does it ha does does everything else have to be there? Is it the leaves decorate? You know, is it the fall sort of decor that starts to pop up? Is it everybody, you know, wearing their fall clothing? Is it is it the rest of the vibe around it that makes it something that you want? Or is it just because it's delicious that you want it? Would you eat pumpkin in March? Is my question. And like it. And you know, I mean, obviously it's a good bagel and whatever. And like we've eaten pumpkin in March 'cause you do recipe testing Jeff Perera: Yeah. Aaron: so so far in advance. But would you be like, Mm, yeah, I'll have some pumpkin items? Jeff Perera: So we have some personal experience with this because we do test bagel flavors and we take pictures and all the stuff that we have to do for the marketing side of it. So we ate bagels back in like April, pumpkin bagels back in April. Aaron: We did. And they were great. Jeff Perera: And they were delicious, but they felt out of place. It felt like it was wrong, like Aaron: Did it? Did it feel out of place for you? It Jeff Perera: You know, we're Aaron: felt pretty right to me. I don't know, you can watch video, but I was pretty it wasn't I was not conflicted during that tasting at all. Yeah, I did. Not conflicted, but I do Jeff Perera: You ate a lot of bagels that day. You ate a lot of bagels that day. Had there been had there been spoons, you might have just taken the cream cheese straight away. Aaron: But the your point is valid in as it I think in the question of like, does it feel right? Is the f is a lot of what makes it special the rest of it when it takes place, you know, when when you're having these things. I mean, this isn't the this isn't the only zone that we do this in, right? There's always everybody's trying to always force chocolates and strawberries on you in February. You know, and that's creeps and like Jeff Perera: Why do you only have to eat healthy in January? Aaron: yes, well, a lot of regret at the end of the year. It rolls over, it's mainly the driver. Exactly. Jeff Perera: Too many Christma too many too many Christmas cookies. But why can't you make Christmas cookies in the middle of the summer? Aaron: Okay, now that's crazy. I mean just to just to pause on that for a second. I couldn't even imagine having like a sugar cookie, like a classic Jeff Perera: Like a like a cookie cutter, like gingerbread guy shaped sugar cookie with some icing and decorate like a whole you could no? Aaron: We're no way. I'm just realizing now that we're really uncovering a lot of food, food-based stuff about me. I actually love gingerbread. I just like holiday apparently this seasonal flavor thing is just me. This is we've I'm learning a lot about myself on the pod, more than I really you know set out to do when we started this. But yeah, I love gingerbread a lot. And during the holidays, we always make gingerbread cookies and I eat more than anybody should. and I don't really crave it the rest of the year. Jeff Perera: So that's an interesting thought process because I believe that that craving component might have something to do with you how much you overdo it in the season. Aaron: Could be. There's definitely overdoing it. That is an accurate description of what happens. Jeff Perera: So I think having been a retailer for twenty plus years and then moving into this bagel space where I'm working through seasonal flavors throughout the course of a year, I think we as the retailer, as the producer of said goods, dictates the the broader idea of a flavor profile. And it starts with you made a really good point earlier. If you're a manufacturer and all summer long you're producing a widget that is for enjoyment during a season that is ninety degrees and sunny with an afternoon rainstorm, and you have to flip that line over in time to have a widget for the fall that might not meet the same requirements, you've you know, at some point you've gotta like flip the switch, and do the thing so that your product can make it to market. I feel like that n that has been backed up over time, right? Like, to your Aaron: yeah. Jeff Perera: point, I saw Halloween candy weeks ago in stores. And if you go into a Michael's or a Joanne Joann's R.I.P. Aaron: I like joining fabrics. Jeff Perera: I like joint fabrics. if you go into like a Michaels or you go into like a Hobby Lobby, but other places are left. Aaron: Yeah. Jeff Perera: You know, Kirkland's J Max, they're gonna have all this like decor. Aaron: it's fall. Jeff Perera: It's yeah, it's been fall for weeks. Aaron: Now, so that we can we can have some some old guy talk for a minute on this topic, 'cause we can both say Jeff Perera: I'm a lean. Aaron: I remember when and have that meet more than like three years ago. now that we've seen a couple of seasons, each of us. We can say the typical thing. It you know, every year it gets earlier. And there's some truth in that. from one year to the next, maybe not as much, but from the same point of like trying to remember growing up when these things were. I mean, Halloween candy in in August is insane. Compared to 15 years ago, as an example, And so at what point Does the race to merchandise and the race to beat the competition, just get ridiculous? where's our limit as a society? Jeff Perera: Okay, I would like to hypothesize that when people started selling goods online, Aaron: Mm. Jeff Perera: it forced brick and mortar retail. to compete because those those goods just weren't available in stores based on logistics timelines, shipping, store like as a retailer I worked Aaron: I see. Yeah yeah yeah. Like time to turn. Jeff Perera: I worked at Target for like you know twenty two thousand and like actually I started like there in nineteen ninety eight. So like nineteen ninety eight to like two thousand and eleven I worked at Target. And our first seasons where Christmas trees were coming out like during Halloween wasn't really happening until the mid, 2010s. Ecom is I Aaron: So really e com really sh making the shift. Jeff Perera: think pushed this narrative s faster because we would have a Halloween set in our Target Stories. An elaborate. Like the only place you see this kind of elaborate Halloween set now is like Lowe's or Home Depot where they got all the blow ups and all the stuff. Aaron: Yeah. Jeff Perera: My kids love going walking through there. You used to get that at Target. Target does it somewhat now, but they do it in a way that is made for quick turn versus Aaron: Yeah. Jeff Perera: made for like great window dressing or a beautiful display that would inspire you to decorate or buy more. And in years past, long, long time ago, in a land far away when I was twenty years younger, we would do what we called the forty-eight hour set. And Halloween night, we'd have a team come in and tear down the main Halloween decorations and put up the Christmas tree flat. Trees fully decorated. And then the next day, overnight, you would knock down all those other aisles of candy and decor, and it would become ornaments and wreaths and Aaron: Yeah. Jeff Perera: all that stuff. And it was November one to like right up until like you started running out of that stuff, like the week before Christmas. that you'd start to consolidate. But I but I really feel like it was like right when ecom started their major presence. And I'm I can't even say like Amazon because I think Amazon was selling that stuff back in the late nineties. It just wasn't Aaron: Yeah. Jeff Perera: as like prevalent. Aaron: I'm curious your thoughts. Maybe not so much for food, but but certainly in your experience at retail. So I think a big part of that too is that you've got you've got a desire to always be a little bit bigger and a little bit better year after year. And so now you're looking at this window that we call fall, that really, at least here in the States, right? You're running this gauntlet of Halloween, Thanksgiving, and Christmas, all fairly unique, honestly. and especially between Halloween and then the combo of Thanksgiving and Christmas, which are a little easier to group, but like you've got to run that gauntlet over what, you know, like a 75 day period essentially, you know, maybe 90 days. And so, and then you're always making these bigger and more elaborate things. It's like, how do you get value out of staging something for three weeks? So the only way to go is to go forward. And be like, let's start the whole thing earlier and then everybody gets a longer window of of being there. But now you're in a situation where it's, you know, early September and you gotta put all the Halloween stuff out because quite frankly, that stuff's coming down the week of Halloween. Because Thanksgiving's gonna come up. Jeff Perera: coming no matter what, right? Like it's yeah, you're gonna have to s like it's probably actually butt I say it's August. I almost said it's on clearance. But like it's probably already on clearance by the middle of September. Or deeply discounted. Deeply discounted. Aaron: Yeah. If you haven't done it, you're if you're if you if you haven't done it, you're not doing it. So then bringing that back to food, why does food do that then? We don't we don't have the same sort of requirements. Is it because the LTOs associated with these things are so different that we have to all the marketing and all of the is it equivalent, I guess, but different in just the the amount of switch over that needs to take place to sort of run this three holiday gauntlet? Jeff Perera: I'm not sold on it though that like people actually want it. We might be putting it on them but I don't know that they want it. So yeah. Aaron: Well that's what I'm wondering is I mean, when we the Jeff Perera: I guess what I'm trying to say is next year could we do pumpkin season in September? And nobody would care. Besides you. Aaron: We do pumpk yeah. We d we do pumpkin season right though, because it's not a three week LTO or two week LTO. Like, you know, obviously the the bagel of the day is rotate, but like we sit in pumpkin for a while. It's really it which Jeff Perera: We do. Yeah. Aaron: I think that's nice. It's like it's on the menu for the rest of the year. I just sort of cruise through, you know, in give or take, but You know, you kind of cruise through and you have it, it's available. So it wouldn't bother me if it started a little bit later. Cause I know I've got the whole season. But if it were a fly by night thing where it's like I get three and this is I'll give, you know, other people in the space, this where, you know, Starbucks has always done it well. Is, you know, they put their you know, their classic there, they put their PSL on the menu and it just sits there. And it sits there. I mean, you can always get one, but like they push it, you know, heavy for the entire season. Jeff Perera: Well, do they have it like we have pumpkin spice on our menu year round. Aaron: You can get it at our store any time too. Jeff Perera: Year round. does can you do that at Starbucks? Or Dunkin I think they phase out pumpkin. I don't think you can get it except for Aaron: See, this is the conversation I've never tried. I've never been sitting there and a I've never been sitting Jeff Perera: Because you don't want it. You don't want it. You want to Aaron: there in April and saying to myself, Gogh you know what hit the spot right now is PSL. Never. Jeff Perera: So I had to know if this was a a thing. And so I I just I pulled some really like rudimentary sales data just from a unit count. I'm doing live research because I had to know. So Aaron: Did you do some live research on the pod? This is amazing. It's the first time. Jeff Perera: Are people who are pumpkin spice fans just drinking it year-round and are those units that we're selling on a monthly basis to the same people? And then as we get into Aaron: Could be. Jeff Perera: you know, as you get into August and September and deeper into the season, you capture folks like Aaron who aren't gonna drink it in April, but it's definitely gonna drink it. every time he goes into a store this time of year. Aaron: It's an interesting question. And it also opens up another question in my mind around is a lot of this really just holiday vibes to make you feel in the mood, but you're still going to order whatever you order. So I'll ask you this question. Pretend you're one of those people that's not really swayed by the LTOs If a brand completely ignored the seasons and said, We're not gonna participate, we're not gonna even acknowledge fall as a season with special, pumpkins and maples and and all that stuff, We're just gonna it's just our menu every day. Think of your pizza shop, Jeff. You know, there's no the local pizza shop is not doing you know fall flavors. It's just still pizza. So is you as a consumer, do you want the vibe to go along with your normal order? Jeff Perera: Aaron, I love this question so much because I I think that if we didn't have a pumpkin season on the menu, Aaron: Yeah. Jeff Perera: I think because everyone else is doing it, it negatively impacts our business. And guests will seek that out somewhere else. Aaron: Materially. Jeff Perera: Yes. In a way that would be detrimental. There would be Aaron: Yeah. Jeff Perera: a like pitchforks and like Whatever, down the main street of Jeff's Bagel Run, screaming, Where's my pumpkin bagel? Where's my pumpkin cream cheese? Right? So I think we've conditioned ourselves to be there to get to that component. If it wasn't there, I think it would be negative to the business. And I well I haven't seen it at my local pizza place, other restaurants that I frequent where I am pretty much gonna eat the same thing every time I go. I see them introducing fall inspired items. There's a Aaron: But is that important to you as somebody that's not gonna order them? That they're having like a fall theme. Jeff Perera: But I might order it, I might try it. Like I like if when I go okay, so my favorite Italian restaur my favorite Italian restaurant Aaron: The illusion, the illusion of option. Jeff Perera: in Orlando is Ravello. And when I go to Ravello, if I go there probably next month, because I don't think they'll do it this week, it's August. Or almost September. If I go there in September and have dinner for my birthday, because it's kinda like a special occasion joint, they're probably gonna have a pumpkin ravioli on the menu. And I'm gonna eat that. Aaron: Pumpkin ravioli delicious though. Jeff Perera: I'ma eat that. I'm gonna order that and I'm gonna eat that and I'm gonna enjoy it because but they're not gonna offer pumpkin ravioli when it's out of season. Now I guess the real question is, did the seasons happen because that's when plants were actually bearing fruit for us to eat it and consume Aaron: Mm. Jeff Perera: it? Because we eat a lot of summertime stuff that's fresh and ripe in the summertime. Aaron: I think when you look at things like pumpkin, maybe, but there's no like ginger's not available at Christmas time. Like that's not there's no linkage there. That was just somewhere along the way that recipe got us you know, got attached to Yeah. Jeff Perera: S someone just said, Hey, let's make this like sweet molasses cookie with ginger and see if anybody eats it. Yeah. Aaron: Yeah. I mean somebody cut it in the you know, they became a a you know, a fairy tale and you know, then the rest is history. So I I think it's half and half. I think some of probably obviously, you know, gourds that in the fall is is probably conditioned for for us. But anyone's strawberries in in, you know, the spring. Well I mean spring, like a little bit earlier than that, but like you know, strawberries at the beginning of the year. Jeff Perera: Well strawberries are strawberries are actually primarily predicated on temperature for when they bloom the best. So we get Aaron: Yeah. Jeff Perera: them in January, February in Florida, but you know, Washington State apparently has an incredible strawberry season in the middle of the summer. Like July and August. Aaron: So I wonder if that's weird for them. Like if, you know. Jeff Perera: I think we're so used to buying our food from wherever it's ripe that we are just expecting food to be delicious all the time. Aaron: Well, certainly where we live down here, where there's just Jeff Perera: Yeah. Aaron: no like even we c like regionally we can grow our food year round for the most part. Jeff Perera: I only think about this because my algorithm has put me into giant pumpkins recently. Aaron: You mean like like competition pumpkins? Excellent. Excellent. Jeff Perera: Like competition pumpkins, yeah. And and so I've been watching farmers grow giant pumpkins over the course of the Aaron: Mm-hmm. Jeff Perera: last two or three weeks. And I'm catching up because they started this, you know, last fall, really. As soon as the season ends, they start over. And the way they grow these pumpkins is fascinating. Massive. Fifteen hundred, sixteen hundred pound pumpkins Aaron. That's like a car. Aaron: I d I don't even know how you like will that into like I don't know. I guess he just it's just the str strains of listen. Jeff Perera: I can I can connect you with a couple accounts on TikTok that'll show you the way. It's pretty fa it's fascinating. It's fascinating. it's so good. Aaron: Hmm. Jeff Perera: maybe I can figure out how to link show notes or something and I can put some of Aaron: There you go. Jeff Perera: my favorite giant pumpkin accounts in this pod, but Aaron: It's important work. Jeff Perera: one of just recently sa I was really sad. It formed a crack and it's no longer it's not gonna make it. It just split, they just lost it. Aaron: They lost it. Could you imagine like being like nine months into growing this thing and then having something happen? Jeff Perera: Yeah. And he put it on the scale, he weighed it anyway. Fifteen hundred and five pounds. Aaron: That's insane. Jeff Perera: It was like competition ready and just Aaron: That's a lot. That's a lot of bagels. That that make a lot of bagels. Jeff Perera: That's it. So much pumpkin. Like so much pumpkin. but yeah. Aaron: So I I guess I I have another question though as we think Jeff Perera: Okay. Aaron: about this. Do you so yes, we've I think we've identified, we've solved it here, that the the time can move and we can be conditioned. I don't think we bec we can be conditioned fast, but over time we could definitely be conditioned to sort of move these these you know, when we when we as an audience start wanting these things. Can they be manufactured from zero? is the real question. So can we create a lot of people are upset cucumber dill is is sunsetting. you know that that people have loved that spread, you know, twice now. So like can we create a cucumber dill season? Is that something that can be manufactured? Jeff Perera: I think you can create energy around a product. I don't know that Cucumber Dill has a season, but I think you can I could Aaron: We can't make people crave it in July. It's not we can't Jeff Perera: de yeah, I mean maybe if we bring it back, maybe if we bring it back in March and just let it be there for, you know, three or four weeks and see what the we'll have to try that, see what the feedback sounds like in March. so much of it is because I think we're just societally conditioned to eat certain things at certain times. And that goes for pumpkin in the fall, that goes for ripe berries in the summertime, it goes for ice cream after dinner. Like, who said you have Aaron: Mm-hmm. Jeff Perera: to eat ice cream after dinner? Why like why not have dessert first? Aaron: I I actually have a funny story about that. if there's a minute here. So Jeff Perera: we got time. Aaron: so so I was in this business meeting. this is a couple of years back, and one of my colleagues is a bit of a prankster, and so we're at this business dinner. It's a smaller group, let's say it's like twelve of us. And we've got s there's some clients at this at this dinner. And we're ordering for the table and they're ordering appetizers or whatever. And I happen to comment, I really like bread pudding, I was like, cool, they have bread pudding here. And I, you know, this prankster friend of a colleague of mine heard here's this. And so he somehow, contacts the the waiter and orders me bread pudding with ice cream, a la mode, to come in with all the appetizers. So so the waiter comes out and I see it coming, and I'm like, I knew he got me. So they're putting down, you know, cheese curds and wings and all these traditional appetizers. And then in front of me is a full plate of bread pudding and ice cream. And I'm sitting right next to one of our, you know, one of our clients. And he was talking to somebody else. And then like double takes me and just I rebooted his brain. He's like, Did you just order dessert to start the meal? And of course I gotta lean in now. I can't I can't give this guy the win. I'm like, yeah, of course, yeah. And then I just ate my bread thing at the start of the meal. And it really made me question, to your point, why? Why does it have to go in a certain order? Why can't we start with dessert? It was delicious. Jeff Perera: Dessert tastes better. Dessert tastes better when you're hungry. Aaron: It didn't ruin my meal at all. Now I will say that it it really did preclude my hot swapping between the wings and bites of my bread pudding. It wasn't really that Jeff Perera: Ha ha ha. Aaron: wasn't happening. That wasn't gonna be a good a good mix. But yes, it does beg the Jeff Perera: I mean like Aaron: question. Jeff Perera: everybody else orders dessert and you're like, I guess I'll take those mozzarella sticks now. Thanks. Aaron: Yeah, yeah, exactly. Exactly. So that's a power move if you ever want to you know, if you ever want to just, you know, flip it up. Now we didn't get that business, so maybe it's not the best move to make. it really it was brought up Jeff Perera: I guess Yeah. Aaron: on a later call, like you wouldn't believe this. They're their CTO. We're gonna order dessert to start the start the meal. So it stuck with It was a moment. Jeff Perera: They're like they're like this guy's over here crushing Aaron: yeah. Jeff Perera: bread pudding a la mode while I'm eating like a chicken wing. I don't know if I can do business with these people. Aaron: Guy's crazy. I mean it was the fifty fifty shot. I could've gone either way. Jeff Perera: It might have been the move that landed the deal. Could you know. You never know. I mean we do know, but i it might Aaron: You never know. You never know. Well yeah, in this in this instance we have an answer. But you know, statistically, keep trying. You know? What is the Jordan quote? Jeff Perera: It's yeah. I Aaron: You know, he's he's missed a hundred percent of your shots you don't take or whatever. Jeff Perera: Yeah, yeah, yeah. That's absolutely it. Well, I'm glad we got to talk about pumpkin for thirty minutes, Aaron, because I know it's your favorite flavor of the season. I can't wait to have this same conversation about Aaron: Don't sleep in people. Jeff Perera: peppermint and candy canes. It's coming. Aaron: I I'm learning more about myself every day. Jeff Perera: Well that feels like a great place to end it, Aaron. bake fresh, bring joy, build community, and we'll see you next week. Bye.