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Rangers/Mets MLB + NCAAF Best Bets Saturday 9/13/25 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Yep. Inside I want to kill myself. We are on
• 0:05
  Speaker 1: OWN seven run over the last two days after tonight
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: it was just complete bullshit. So that's that's how I'm
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: gonna start off this show. Horrible Sunday one and five.
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: I don't even know what to tell you about that.
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: I just don't want to do this anymore. I have
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: never seen anything like this. Man with the slump continuing,
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: two straight losses, not a good day at all. Own
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: four that have not had a good season. Man with
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: wookends the slump that I'm on, and the slump continues.
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: I've reached a new peak. Actually, I'm going to burn
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: my browins hack Man, I don't know what is going
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: on with the Bruins arch hape? Is that what it is?
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: I don't even know it's March ninth, I think who
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: even knows? Man, I don't know what data is anymore.
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: I don't even know what data is anymore. Man, back
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: with you after the worst day that I could possibly have,
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: Back with you as I always am until I die
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: at least OWN two yesterday and yesterday did not go
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: well for me. Own five the worst month that I've
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: ever had in my eighteen years doing this. I don't
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: know what to even tell you about this anymore. To
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: the slumps, the slump discontinuous, the slump continues. Somebody fucking
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: kill me, please. I don't even know what I should
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: do at this point, other than potentially end it all.
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: What's up, everybody, It's towed back with you. This is
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: better off dead? Saturday, September thirteenth. Is that what it is?
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: I don't even know something like that. I don't know
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: anything anymore. Man owned four on the show yesterday. I
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: was not happy about it on my college football show
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: last night, which thanks to people who showed up for that.
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: If you want the college football analysis for Tay you
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: and go check that out. I mean, time is running
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: out of the I'll give you. I'll reiterate the plays again,
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: but if you want the analysis, you can go back
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: and watch that. The analysis is kind of evergreen, I suppose.
• 2:08
  Speaker 1: But yeah, yesterday was a terrible day. I mean, I
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: don't know what to say. Both of those unders are
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: not even close. In baseball, the Atlanta Braves not even close. Dude,
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: I don't understand how baseball is running so poorly right now.
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: Baseball is in one of my better sports and it's
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: just been absolutely nightmarishly bad. I have no fucking idea
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: what's going on. I'm gonna have two more baseball players today,
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: so those will probably also lose. College football. I think
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: we're back to either five hundred or one game below
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: five hundred because Kansas State couldn't get it done. It
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: was a close game on the scoreboard, but the game
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: was not actually that close. Kansas State. I think we
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: might have to admit that Kansas State is actually terrible.
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: Like I don't even know what to say. They got
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: absolutely annihilated, like statistically by this really bad Arizona team.
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: We might have to say UCLA is really bad too,
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: Is they Ucla got obliterated? I mean, I don't know, dude,
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: I have no idea what's going on. It's just very
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: strange college football today. Again. You can go watch my
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: college football show from last night. But we're gonna be
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: on Temple plus twenty four, Missouri State plus twenty eight,
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: Miami of Florida minus seventeen and a half. I know
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: we missed a little bit of the better numbers on
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: these ones, but I still think Miami runs away with
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: that game, and then Vandy plus three. I know it
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: would have been better to get the four to four
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: and a half, but I still think Vandy really good
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: shot to just win that game outright. So those are
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: the games there, Charles, welcome back again. Good morning. We're
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: gonna talk. This is gonna be all baseball in the
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: show because that's all we have. I think WNBA playoffs
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: start tomorrow. It's Saturday, so it's all pretty much college football,
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: so there's no NFL. We can look at the market
• 3:45
  Speaker 1: for college football real quick. I guess if we want
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: to just to double check all those plays real quick, Temple,
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: you can see here. I mean, they're still looking good
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: in the market there. Oklahoma very public with less of
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: the cash on them seventy three percent of the tickets
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: and fifty four percent of the cash, so that looks good.
• 4:00
  Speaker 1: In Missouri state eighty four percent of tickets at seventy
• 4:03
  Speaker 1: nine percent of the cash on SMU, so they're looking
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: like a public side as well. Miami of Florida here
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: at seventeen and a half. I still don't think you'll
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: be able to get the seventeen again, but they got
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: fifty five percent of the cash, sixty percent of tickets
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: public on South Florida, so that looks good as well.
• 4:19
  Speaker 1: I mean, sometimes I won't go with the market, but still,
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: just you know, I'd like to use it as a
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: double check. At least Vandy has sixty three percent of
• 4:25
  Speaker 1: the cash fifty one percent of tickets are on South Carolina,
• 4:29
  Speaker 1: so those are all looking pretty good to me. So
• 4:31
  Speaker 1: I like where we stand on those I did mention.
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: I do like you mass plus the thirty five or whatever. Iowa.
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: I mean, I just don't even know if Iowa could
• 4:39
  Speaker 1: score enough points to even cover that. I mean, I
• 4:41
  Speaker 1: doubt that iowall lose as obviously They're probably going to
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: be one of my Survivor picks for today but or
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: for this week, but I mean I don't I don't
• 4:49
  Speaker 1: see them covering that number. They just can't score. Man Wisconsin,
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: by the way, they are still the anti public side.
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: But one thing to keep in mind with Wisconsin is
• 4:57
  Speaker 1: it looks like their quarterback is out again. But I'm
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: not really sure how much that matters. To be honest,
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: it hasn't really moved the line that much. Their backup quarterback.
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: When he was in there against Miami Ohio, he actually
• 5:08
  Speaker 1: played better than their starting quarterback, so I honestly don't
• 5:11
  Speaker 1: know if the quarterback situation actually is that much of
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: a downgrade for Wisconsin. So I probably would still mean
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: to Wisconsin there, but it's just something to point out,
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: you know. Yeah, I mean, plus, it could be like
• 5:24
  Speaker 1: an insured player theory spot where Wisconsin knowso we need
• 5:27
  Speaker 1: to step up now and play for our you know,
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: injured quarterback there. And then yeah, I don't know what
• 5:34
  Speaker 1: the other ones are. I did like Arkansas State a
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: decent amount. That one looks okay as well at this point,
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: and Delaware, but the Delaware number has gotten away from everybody,
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: but that still looks like the right side. And then
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: I think I mentioned one other side that I liked it.
• 5:48
  Speaker 1: I can't remember what it was now, I don't. I'm
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: trying to remember what I talked about yesterday where I
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: was like, oh, I kind of want to play this. Yeah,
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: I mean that's probably the That is probably the run
• 5:59
  Speaker 1: down there. That's probably all I can do for now
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: as far as that is concerned. But yeah, go check
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: out the College Football Show from last night. Memory broke
• 6:06
  Speaker 1: down all those games in detail. This is gonna be
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: major League baseball today. It's all baseball from now on.
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: Let's do it, man, let's do the breakdown. I don't
• 6:17
  Speaker 1: love this baseball board. I don't know if I love
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: my baseball plays here, but we're gonna get into it
• 6:21
  Speaker 1: right now. I mean, I kind of like analyzing it still.
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: So first game up, we do have an after we
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: have a couple of afternoon games, actually some afternoon games Saturdays,
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: mostly evening, but of course the earliest game is at
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: Wrigley Field. It's another afternoon game in Wrigley Tampa at
• 6:40
  Speaker 1: Chicago out. The Cubs a little bit more to play
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: for here. They've won three games in a row. They
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: won yesterday to start this yeraries of the six to
• 6:48
  Speaker 1: four win, the Cubs they could potentially still get their division, man,
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: so they're still playing for it. Tampa Bay is not
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: technically eliminated, but I think Tampa Bay kind of knows
• 6:59
  Speaker 1: that they're not gonna make the playoffs. So the Cubs
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: are more in the thick of the race there. Analyzing
• 7:04
  Speaker 1: the stats. That's what I've always done. Yeah, just my
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: autism leads me to do it, man. The Cubs. Both
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: teams have actually pretty solid bullpens for the most part.
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: Here is the bullpen situation. I don't know if it's
• 7:17
  Speaker 1: really advantageous one way or the other. Although Tampa used
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: more relief pitchers yesterday, so heavier bullpen usage on the
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: side of Tampa. Cubs have the better offense here. I
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: leaned to Tampa as far as the starter, though, which
• 7:31
  Speaker 1: is Drew Rasmus, and he's having a good season two
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: point six four ERA, point nine to eight whip, a
• 7:38
  Speaker 1: very good whip. He slightly works on the road two
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: point seven to two ERA, but that's still pretty good.
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: The strikeout walk ratio this month is a little bit concerning.
• 7:46
  Speaker 1: Over the last couple of starts, four strikeouts, three walks.
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: He just hasn't struck out a lot of guys. Man,
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: he'll have three solo home runs against Seattle, but that
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: was in Tampa's ballpark, both the starts and he made
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: the season this month. I mean we're in Tampa, so
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: in that horrible spring training stadium they play in Steinberner Field. Rasmussen,
• 8:07
  Speaker 1: Tampa's been doing a good job, like kind of managing
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: his load. Never sounds good when I say that, but
• 8:13
  Speaker 1: they don't overwork him. They pretty much let him go
• 8:15
  Speaker 1: five six innings, let him go somewhere in the neighborhood
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: of eighty pitches and they take him out. They don't
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: force him to over exert or overextend himself. Aside from
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: that game against Seattle, he'd allow two or fewer earned
• 8:28
  Speaker 1: runs and every single outing going all the way back
• 8:32
  Speaker 1: to the All Star Break for the most part, or
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: yes to the All Star break, but a couple of
• 8:37
  Speaker 1: those were kind of shortened starts there. But he is
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: pitching well against the Chicago Cubs. He has pretty solid
• 8:44
  Speaker 1: numbers here, but only sixteen at bats, so it's a
• 8:46
  Speaker 1: small sample size. No extra RaSE hits allowed, four strikeouts,
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: two walks, two fifty batting average allowed, five eighty three ops.
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: So I think we could trust Rasmussen in this game,
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: at least while he's in there. I don't know if
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: we trust Tampa's over worked bullpen, though Cubs have Colin
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: Ray making the start. He's been mediocre this year four
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: point two ERA, one point three to one whip. He's
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: been slightly better at home four point zero three home ERA.
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: Good last outing for him against Washington. I give him
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: one and run in five and a third any six strikeouts,
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: no walks, but the couple starts prior to that were
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: pretty ugly against Atlanta and San Francisco. He didn't make
• 9:25
  Speaker 1: it five innings in either. He allowed nine runs total
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: across eight and two thirds, so he wasn't effective at
• 9:31
  Speaker 1: all in those starts. He walked more than he know.
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: He walked the same amount that he struck out, and
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: he walked more than he struck out in the start
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: before that against Milwaukee. But it's more damning to not
• 9:41
  Speaker 1: pitch well against San Francisco. In Atlanta, I would say
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: so Ray, I don't think he's that good man. He's
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: got a small sample size against Tampa. Fourteen at bats,
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: one strikeout, two walks. He's allowed a home run to
• 9:54
  Speaker 1: Plasio's two eighty six batting average allowed in ninety six ops.
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: So the numbers there are at least not that great
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: for Rey. I think Rasmussen in the first five innings
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: probably has the edge. And it looks like the money
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: is coming in on Tampa. Tampa's flipped from plus one
• 10:11
  Speaker 1: oh nine to minus one ten, even though they're the
• 10:13
  Speaker 1: road team here eighty percent of the cash on them,
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: sixty three percent of tickets on the Cubs. I don't
• 10:20
  Speaker 1: disagree with Tampa, but I would limit it to the
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: first five innings because I'm worried about their overworked bullpen.
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: So I think the biggest edge you get with Tampa
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: is the starting pitching matchup. So I do agree with
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: Tampa first five innings money line in that game. That
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: is probably uh yeah, that's the way that I would
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: look in that game if I was gonna play it.
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: Baltimore at Toronto. Toronto got the win yesterday. Toronto's still
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: hanging on to the AL East lead barely. I still
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: think the Yankees are probably gonna win the division unfortunately,
• 10:50
  Speaker 1: and the Red Sox might lose their wild card position,
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: which is also really bad. Red Sox too many injuries too.
• 10:57
  Speaker 1: I'd said the Red Sox wouldn't make the playoffs, and
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: it looked like they were eighty something percent to make
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: the playoffs, but now they're not. Toronto six to one
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: win yesterday over Baltimore, Toronto has something to play for, obviously,
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: they're trying to make the playoffs here. Baltimore arguably will
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: show up for a game against Toronto as well, though
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: I mean it's a divisional matchup. At least they're playing
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: the top team in the division at least record wise.
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: Baltimore only these two relief pitchers yesterday, and they're better.
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: Relievers did not really come into the game or did not.
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: Toronto used more of their relief pitchers. They used five
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: they had the prior day off. Toronto's bullpen hasn't really
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: been that good, though neither bullpen is really that good.
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: Baltimore probably does have a slight bullpen edge though in
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: this one, just because they're more they're better, pitchers are
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: more rested. Toronto has the way better offense and starting pitching.
• 11:48
  Speaker 1: Both these pitchers have had their moments this year. I
• 11:50
  Speaker 1: guess we would say Tomayuki Sagana is pitching for the
• 11:54
  Speaker 1: Orioles four point five to one ERA one point three
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: to four whips. That whip is definitely too high. This
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: is for season in the majors. It's been up and down,
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: but he hasn't been awful. He's a little bit worse
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: on the road though, four point seventy five roadra His
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: last few starts are not very good, especially his last two.
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: Actually got blasted for seven runs against San Francisco on
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: the road in three and a third innings in a
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: pitcher friendly park. That's not good, and then didn't do
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: well against the Dodgers. Last time, I would either give
• 12:24
  Speaker 1: up three ron runs all on solo home runs. Sugano
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: does look like he's kind of falling back out of
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: form again, and Toronto has seen him because he's in
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: the division, so they've faced him this year already. They
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: have twenty at bats against him. They have no strikeouts,
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: two walks, three hundred average and seven to sixty four
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: oh ps, So Sogano has not been that successful facing
• 12:45
  Speaker 1: this Toronto lineup been now they're more familiar with him too,
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: so that's not great for him. He's going up against
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: the veteran Max Scherzer, who's been pretty good for the
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: most part this season, though the less good recently four
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: point three to six ERA one point one to six
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: whip not terrible. He's a little bit worse at home
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: four point five ERA. Last couple of starts, he did
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: not last past four and third innings in either one
• 13:10
  Speaker 1: of them against Milwaukee and the Yankees, though those are
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: good offenses, but he allowed four and runs in each
• 13:15
  Speaker 1: of them. He had only a nine to four strike
• 13:17
  Speaker 1: out walk ratio over that span, so he seems to
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: be a bit out of form right now too, although
• 13:23
  Speaker 1: at least the good thing for him is that Baltimore
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: is a step down offensively from those last two teams
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: that he faced, so he might bounce back and do
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: better here. His numbers are good against Baltimore and forty
• 13:32
  Speaker 1: three at bats sixteen to two strike out walk ratio,
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: both home runs he's allowed or both from cows Er
• 13:38
  Speaker 1: one forty batting average allowed four to eighty ops. Although
• 13:42
  Speaker 1: keep in mind that those numbers are pretty much in
• 13:45
  Speaker 1: the past, so not with Sures or being this old
• 13:48
  Speaker 1: unless he faced Baltimore this year too. I don't know
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: if he has actually let me see if he has.
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: He did. He only faced him for three innings in
• 13:56
  Speaker 1: his first outing way back in March, though, so this
• 13:58
  Speaker 1: is not really a whole lot you could take away
• 13:59
  Speaker 1: from that. I wouldn't say so overall, he does do
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: well against Baltimore, but he's in bad for him right
• 14:05
  Speaker 1: now and hasn't faced them this year, and he is
• 14:08
  Speaker 1: a bit older. The money does seem to be coming
• 14:10
  Speaker 1: in on Toronto anyway, though, for minus what sixty five
• 14:13
  Speaker 1: to minus one sixty eight eighty five percent to take
• 14:16
  Speaker 1: its set a ninety nine percent of the cash coming
• 14:18
  Speaker 1: in on Toronto, so the money is coming into Toronto.
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: I think it might be a little bit too high
• 14:22
  Speaker 1: of a price to pay. I mean, everybody knows Toronto's
• 14:24
  Speaker 1: the better team here. They are public. Does seem like
• 14:27
  Speaker 1: the money is agreeing with it, though, I mean, I
• 14:31
  Speaker 1: find it hard to disagree with Toronto at least having
• 14:34
  Speaker 1: the starting pitching edge here though, So maybe you could
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: look towards maybe your run line first five innings. Money
• 14:41
  Speaker 1: seems to be coming in on the over, so maybe
• 14:43
  Speaker 1: you could actually go Toronto over their team total in
• 14:46
  Speaker 1: the first five innings because it seems more predictable that
• 14:49
  Speaker 1: Toronto will be able to score off of Ghano plus
• 14:52
  Speaker 1: Baltimore's bullpen, even though Baltimore's bullpen is the more rested bullpen.
• 14:56
  Speaker 1: I don't trust Toronto's bullpen either though, so I mean,
• 14:59
  Speaker 1: I don't really know necessarily disagree with an over on
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: the full game either. Ninety two percent takes ninety four
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash on the over sures there might
• 15:06
  Speaker 1: not last like really that long in the game either,
• 15:08
  Speaker 1: So then you get Toronto's not great bullpen coming into
• 15:11
  Speaker 1: the equation there, so it does seem like an over
• 15:15
  Speaker 1: is possible there as well. Pittsburgh Washington, I mentioned an
• 15:18
  Speaker 1: over in this game, and it went over because the
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: bullpens really allowed some runs yesterday. It was a low
• 15:23
  Speaker 1: scoring game early, and then the game still went over.
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: Washington got a six to five win, even though it
• 15:28
  Speaker 1: was a return home spot for them, so it wasn't
• 15:30
  Speaker 1: really the greatest spot for them, but they still got
• 15:32
  Speaker 1: the win. These teams are both definitely out of it.
• 15:35
  Speaker 1: They're both playing out the stretch. Even though I know
• 15:37
  Speaker 1: the only two teams that are technically eliminated right now
• 15:40
  Speaker 1: mathematically completely are Colorado and the White Sox. But still,
• 15:45
  Speaker 1: I mean, these two teams are not far behind that.
• 15:46
  Speaker 1: They're both just playing out the stretch. Neither of these
• 15:49
  Speaker 1: bullpens are great. Although Pittsburgh's is the better bullpen, Washington's
• 15:52
  Speaker 1: is pretty bad. Both teams used a few relief pitchers
• 15:56
  Speaker 1: yesterday and nothing crazy, So Pittsburgh has a bullpen head year.
• 16:00
  Speaker 1: Washington has the better offense out of the tow, although
• 16:02
  Speaker 1: neither offense is really that great. The starting pitching is
• 16:06
  Speaker 1: interesting here. We have two guys that don't have a
• 16:09
  Speaker 1: whole lot of experience in the majors. Bubba Chandler is
• 16:12
  Speaker 1: pitching for Pittsburgh. He is one of their young prospects
• 16:16
  Speaker 1: that they're trying to get him into the starting rotation now.
• 16:18
  Speaker 1: I think they had him in the bullpen at first,
• 16:20
  Speaker 1: but it hasn't gone well for him so far. Seven
• 16:22
  Speaker 1: point three six ERA, one point five WHIP. I didn't
• 16:26
  Speaker 1: really go and look at his scouting, but I know
• 16:27
  Speaker 1: he's a pretty highly touted prospect. He does have a
• 16:30
  Speaker 1: zero road y RA so far this year. He's only
• 16:32
  Speaker 1: made one road appearance, but it was his best. He
• 16:35
  Speaker 1: went four innings, allowing one hit, three strikeouts, one walk
• 16:38
  Speaker 1: against Saint Louis. But Saint Louis they're a pretty bad offense,
• 16:44
  Speaker 1: so somebody to keep in mind there. Although the Nats
• 16:47
  Speaker 1: are not a good offense either. His last two outings
• 16:49
  Speaker 1: he didn't do that well, but it was against the
• 16:51
  Speaker 1: Dodgers and then he got completely blown up by Milwaukee.
• 16:54
  Speaker 1: Although Milwaukee is a good offense obviously, and so are
• 16:57
  Speaker 1: the Dodgers. But I'm not ready to really trust Chandler.
• 16:59
  Speaker 1: Although obviously Washington has no experience against him, so he
• 17:03
  Speaker 1: does at least have the edge where he's unfamiliar to
• 17:05
  Speaker 1: the opposing hitters. Tends to be an edge because those
• 17:08
  Speaker 1: hitters have to take a while to try to figure
• 17:10
  Speaker 1: the guy out, and I think that might be the
• 17:12
  Speaker 1: case with Washington. His starter here as well, Andrew Alvarez,
• 17:16
  Speaker 1: who I think this is his first season in the
• 17:18
  Speaker 1: majors as well. He's a little bit older though one
• 17:21
  Speaker 1: point eight six ERA point nine to three whip. He's
• 17:24
  Speaker 1: been decent so far. He had a five innu shutout
• 17:27
  Speaker 1: in his first start in the Majors against Miami, which
• 17:30
  Speaker 1: was pretty good. Took a little bit of a step
• 17:33
  Speaker 1: back last time out against the Cobs, give up turning
• 17:35
  Speaker 1: runs and four and two thirds. We know the Cubs
• 17:37
  Speaker 1: have a better offense than Miami does. The biggest concern
• 17:41
  Speaker 1: with Alvarez is the walks. He has six strikeouts, five
• 17:44
  Speaker 1: walks so far and nine to two thirds innings. Hasn't
• 17:46
  Speaker 1: allowed a lot of hits at all, four hits, but
• 17:49
  Speaker 1: the walks are a little bit of a concern. His
• 17:51
  Speaker 1: numbers overall still look pretty good though, and he's facing
• 17:53
  Speaker 1: a weak Pirate line up here, and they of course
• 17:56
  Speaker 1: have never seen him before either, so it's kind of
• 17:58
  Speaker 1: hard to figure out what you're gonna get out of
• 18:00
  Speaker 1: these pitchers. Man Pittsburgh is gotten, They've gotten the money,
• 18:05
  Speaker 1: they flip from plus one oh seven and minus want
• 18:07
  Speaker 1: to wait fifty takes ninety percent of the cash coming
• 18:10
  Speaker 1: in on Pittsburgh, even though Chandler really hasn't been that
• 18:13
  Speaker 1: good so far. But the public's gonna look at that
• 18:16
  Speaker 1: and see Chandler's ra is way worse than Alvarez, and
• 18:19
  Speaker 1: they might want to be on the Washington side more so.
• 18:23
  Speaker 1: Although it looks like the public is slightly on Pittsburgh,
• 18:25
  Speaker 1: but the money is way more on Pittsburgh. I mean,
• 18:28
  Speaker 1: the public might not really be playing this game. It's
• 18:30
  Speaker 1: not really an enticing game really for the public betters,
• 18:33
  Speaker 1: because they like to bet games that they're gonna watch too,
• 18:36
  Speaker 1: and this game doesn't look like a game anybody's gonna
• 18:39
  Speaker 1: want to watch. Although I do think the starting pitching
• 18:41
  Speaker 1: matchup isnt dressing, I do think it could be closer
• 18:44
  Speaker 1: than what the starry pitcher's eras might lead you to believe.
• 18:48
  Speaker 1: Pittsburgh does have the better boat end. So if you
• 18:50
  Speaker 1: do like Pittsburgh, the full game money line would make sense.
• 18:56
  Speaker 1: Money's coming under the over a little bit too. It's
• 18:58
  Speaker 1: up for me and to have to nine. You see
• 19:00
  Speaker 1: over ninety one percent of tickets ninety eight percent of
• 19:02
  Speaker 1: cash in the over. I'm not even sure I agree
• 19:05
  Speaker 1: with that man, because the money's coming in towards Pittsburgh
• 19:08
  Speaker 1: and both starters are kind of these young guys who
• 19:10
  Speaker 1: are unfamiliar, and I could and both offenses aren't that good.
• 19:12
  Speaker 1: I could potentially see at least the first five in
• 19:15
  Speaker 1: this game not being that high scoring, kind of like yesterday.
• 19:18
  Speaker 1: I could see an under in the first five innings
• 19:21
  Speaker 1: potentially here, and then I wouldn't want to include the
• 19:23
  Speaker 1: bullpens in that under though, if I was gonna do that.
• 19:26
  Speaker 1: So some thoughts on that game. Hopefully my thoughts are helpful.
• 19:30
  Speaker 1: Detroit at Miami, Man, Miami got the win yesterday, Sandale
• 19:35
  Speaker 1: Condra had a pretty good start yesterday. Miami three wins
• 19:37
  Speaker 1: in a row, and Tark Schooble got hurt in that game,
• 19:41
  Speaker 1: which you know is me not liking the Yankees here.
• 19:44
  Speaker 1: I do not like anything that hurts other ale playoff
• 19:48
  Speaker 1: teams here because I want the other teams to be
• 19:50
  Speaker 1: at full strength and Schoolble he's a cy young He's
• 19:54
  Speaker 1: probably gonna win the sy young here man, so he
• 19:56
  Speaker 1: better not be seriously hurt. He had a pretty bad
• 19:58
  Speaker 1: game yesterday against Miami. He wasn't very good. He exited
• 20:01
  Speaker 1: the game early. I think he I don't know. It
• 20:05
  Speaker 1: seemed like it could be like an oblique strain or
• 20:07
  Speaker 1: something like that. I'm not exactly sure what it was.
• 20:09
  Speaker 1: Hopefully it's not that serious, so that remains to be seen.
• 20:13
  Speaker 1: I mean, Detroit is still playing for playoff positioning at least,
• 20:16
  Speaker 1: although they do have a big lead in their division,
• 20:18
  Speaker 1: so maybe they're somewhat on cruise control here and they
• 20:22
  Speaker 1: don't really care that much about playing Miami. Miami knows
• 20:25
  Speaker 1: that they're out of it, although they seem to be
• 20:26
  Speaker 1: showing up for these games recently. They won three in
• 20:28
  Speaker 1: a row. Like I said, with Detroit coming into their place,
• 20:32
  Speaker 1: it's a spot where maybe they will put in some
• 20:34
  Speaker 1: more effort here. Detroit has the better of the two bullpens,
• 20:38
  Speaker 1: so though neither bullpen is really that terrific, both bullpens
• 20:42
  Speaker 1: are pretty rested though, so the bullpens are in okay
• 20:45
  Speaker 1: shape here. The starting pitching I don't know about this man,
• 20:50
  Speaker 1: Charlie Morton pitching for Detroit. The Morton magic seems to
• 20:54
  Speaker 1: be gone now though his overall numbers are obviously bad
• 20:57
  Speaker 1: five point five nine Era one point five to three WHIP.
• 21:01
  Speaker 1: He's slightly better on the road five point four to
• 21:03
  Speaker 1: nine ERA. This year, his season has been all over
• 21:06
  Speaker 1: the place. Man. He started the season with Baltimore. He
• 21:09
  Speaker 1: was awful at the beginning of the season, looked like
• 21:11
  Speaker 1: his career was over. I always talk about this when
• 21:13
  Speaker 1: we talk about him. He got sent to the bullpen
• 21:16
  Speaker 1: and then it like resurrected his season. They put him
• 21:19
  Speaker 1: back in the starting rotation. He was actually really good
• 21:21
  Speaker 1: for a while. Basically through the trade deadline, Detroit picked
• 21:25
  Speaker 1: him up. He continued to bitch fairly well for Detroit
• 21:28
  Speaker 1: for a while, but recently he has not been good anymore. Man.
• 21:31
  Speaker 1: He's allowed three or more in runs in his last
• 21:33
  Speaker 1: three outings now. His outings this month have been awful.
• 21:36
  Speaker 1: He has a twelve point one to five ERA and
• 21:38
  Speaker 1: two starts this month, not even lasting four innings in
• 21:41
  Speaker 1: either of them, five strikeouts, seven walks. He's been awful
• 21:44
  Speaker 1: this month. One of the starts was against the Mets
• 21:47
  Speaker 1: they do hit pretty well, but also was really bad
• 21:49
  Speaker 1: against the White Sox. That's not good. Both those starts
• 21:53
  Speaker 1: are at home, but it looks like Morton he might
• 21:55
  Speaker 1: be tiring out again. At the end of the season
• 21:57
  Speaker 1: here man, even though I know he's a veteran so
• 22:00
  Speaker 1: he is used to pitching long seasons, but he is
• 22:02
  Speaker 1: not in form right now. His numbers against Miami here
• 22:05
  Speaker 1: good though, and they have not really seen a whole
• 22:07
  Speaker 1: lot of him. Only three of their hitters have seen
• 22:09
  Speaker 1: him for actually two really because al Contra probably doesn't
• 22:12
  Speaker 1: really count overall, including al Contra three for thirteen off
• 22:18
  Speaker 1: and with one strikeout one walk, although those are both
• 22:20
  Speaker 1: al Contra. I don't know how al Condra walked against Morton,
• 22:23
  Speaker 1: but overall they have a two thirty one batting average
• 22:26
  Speaker 1: five to sixteen ops off Morton, and maybe Morton has
• 22:29
  Speaker 1: a little bit of an edge just because Miami hasn't
• 22:31
  Speaker 1: really faced him before for the most part. But I'm
• 22:35
  Speaker 1: not ready to trust him, man, because he's not in
• 22:36
  Speaker 1: good form. Jansen Junk is pitching for Miami four point
• 22:41
  Speaker 1: four to eightyra this year. One point one eight whip
• 22:44
  Speaker 1: is pretty good though, and that's between He's been in
• 22:46
  Speaker 1: the starting rotation for a while now, but he also
• 22:48
  Speaker 1: was in the bullpen for a while earlier in the season.
• 22:53
  Speaker 1: He's been worse at home though, five point three two
• 22:55
  Speaker 1: era at home. That's not good. He hasn't been very
• 22:58
  Speaker 1: good in his last couple of starts. He's allowed three
• 23:01
  Speaker 1: or more runs in every start going all the way
• 23:04
  Speaker 1: back to late July, although he allowed exactly three for
• 23:07
  Speaker 1: a long stretch last month. His first start this month
• 23:11
  Speaker 1: was pretty ugly against Washington, not a good offense, and
• 23:14
  Speaker 1: he allowed six earned runs in four and third innings,
• 23:18
  Speaker 1: three strikeouts, two walks. So yeah, I mean junk. He
• 23:21
  Speaker 1: hasn't looked that good for a while. Man five point
• 23:23
  Speaker 1: eight six ERA last month. He's definitely starting to struggle
• 23:27
  Speaker 1: a bit. Detroit hasn't really seen him a whole lot.
• 23:29
  Speaker 1: Only two of their hitters have faced him before, but
• 23:31
  Speaker 1: they are two for four with the double, no walks,
• 23:34
  Speaker 1: no strikeouts. Even though there's some unfamiliarity here with these pitchers,
• 23:39
  Speaker 1: this game kind of looks like an over to me, man,
• 23:42
  Speaker 1: but the money's disagreeing with that. Totals dropped from nine
• 23:45
  Speaker 1: to eight and a half, slight tick downward though, nine
• 23:48
  Speaker 1: juice to the under, eight and a half juice to
• 23:50
  Speaker 1: the over eighty four percent of tickets sixty five percent
• 23:52
  Speaker 1: of the cash on the over, so money seems to
• 23:54
  Speaker 1: be disagreeing with the over, but I think the over
• 23:58
  Speaker 1: makes sense here to me. I mean, you have a
• 24:01
  Speaker 1: couple of kind of mediocre bullpens. I really don't like
• 24:03
  Speaker 1: the starters, and that could just kind of domino effect
• 24:06
  Speaker 1: into the bullpens. Detroit is a road favorite, which makes sense.
• 24:10
  Speaker 1: They're down for minus one thirty five to minus one
• 24:12
  Speaker 1: twenty one, though ninety takes ninety eight percent of the cash.
• 24:15
  Speaker 1: I don't know about that cash percentage. To me, it
• 24:17
  Speaker 1: looks like that's legit market movement on this against a
• 24:21
  Speaker 1: public Detroit team that really I mean, does Detroit really
• 24:25
  Speaker 1: deserve to be a favorite like that on the road
• 24:26
  Speaker 1: with Morton as their starter? They probably don't, even though
• 24:30
  Speaker 1: Detroit obviously does have the better offense here and they
• 24:32
  Speaker 1: are the better overall team, and generally they do have
• 24:35
  Speaker 1: the better bullpen as well. But it looks like too
• 24:38
  Speaker 1: much of a price to lay in a pitching matchup
• 24:40
  Speaker 1: like that. So we will see Yankees Red Sox. My
• 24:44
  Speaker 1: Boston Red Sox losing the game yesterday, I did mention
• 24:48
  Speaker 1: it was a difficult spot as they were returning home
• 24:49
  Speaker 1: from the Pacific Coast, so the schedule makers didn't do
• 24:52
  Speaker 1: the Red Sox any favors in that one. It was
• 24:54
  Speaker 1: basically revenge for the Yankees, though, because the Red Sox
• 24:57
  Speaker 1: were eight and two against the Yankees this season, and
• 25:00
  Speaker 1: I believe Red Sox have already clinched the season series
• 25:02
  Speaker 1: against them, but the Red Sox are behind them by
• 25:05
  Speaker 1: one and a half games now in the wildcard race.
• 25:08
  Speaker 1: Red Sox need to continue winning, man, and there is
• 25:10
  Speaker 1: still the potential that either of these teams could technically
• 25:13
  Speaker 1: win the Al East, although I don't think the Red
• 25:15
  Speaker 1: Sox have like an actual shot to do that because
• 25:18
  Speaker 1: I don't think they're that good. The Red Sox do
• 25:20
  Speaker 1: have the better bullpen out of these two teams, so
• 25:22
  Speaker 1: at least they have that going for them starting pitching.
• 25:26
  Speaker 1: I don't think the Red Sox have the edge here offensively,
• 25:29
  Speaker 1: The Yankees have the edge of the Red Sox offense
• 25:31
  Speaker 1: is decent. They're better at home too. But the Red Sox,
• 25:36
  Speaker 1: I mean, their offense is gonna suffer with some of
• 25:39
  Speaker 1: these injuries they have. Man, the Red Sox are just
• 25:41
  Speaker 1: way way too injured right now. Who killed it last night, Miami?
• 25:46
  Speaker 1: They killed your bet or whatever? The realist toad, Yeah,
• 25:49
  Speaker 1: de realist Clark on Kent State man, Kent State, They're
• 25:53
  Speaker 1: in some really ugly game today. I think against Kent
• 25:56
  Speaker 1: State is playing some really bad team today. I'm like, man,
• 25:59
  Speaker 1: that's gonna be an off awful game. I forget who
• 26:01
  Speaker 1: they're playing. Yeah, I mean I wouldn't have put the
• 26:06
  Speaker 1: money on Detroit last night. I mean, you're always gonna
• 26:08
  Speaker 1: pay pretty much a premium attacks for Schoob. You're not
• 26:11
  Speaker 1: really gonna get value most of the time on school balls.
• 26:14
  Speaker 1: It's hard to play Detroit when he's starting. Yeah, kool Aid,
• 26:17
  Speaker 1: mctoad street. Yeah, I'm white though, so my name is
• 26:21
  Speaker 1: not gonna be anything resembling that. Max Freed is pitching
• 26:25
  Speaker 1: for the Yankees here. I mean he's been good on
• 26:29
  Speaker 1: the season obviously, three point oh two ERA one point
• 26:32
  Speaker 1: one whip. He's a little bit worse on the road
• 26:35
  Speaker 1: three point five to two road ERA, so he's more
• 26:37
  Speaker 1: beatable on the road. At least he had a stretcher.
• 26:40
  Speaker 1: He wasn't very good in the middle of the season.
• 26:42
  Speaker 1: He was really good at the beginning of the season,
• 26:44
  Speaker 1: wasn't very good for July and then into August. He's
• 26:47
  Speaker 1: pitched way better in his last four starts, though he's
• 26:49
  Speaker 1: gone six or more innings in all of them, seven
• 26:52
  Speaker 1: or more in the last three Yankees, winning all three
• 26:54
  Speaker 1: of those. He picked up a win in all three,
• 26:56
  Speaker 1: and he allowed three or fewer earned runs in all
• 26:59
  Speaker 1: four of those last four outings one or if you
• 27:03
  Speaker 1: were in the prior three until the last one, re
• 27:05
  Speaker 1: left three and runs against Toronto and still got the
• 27:07
  Speaker 1: win there. His walk rate is still too high, though,
• 27:11
  Speaker 1: so over that span he's been much better again, but
• 27:15
  Speaker 1: he's got a twenty two to what is that nine
• 27:18
  Speaker 1: strike out walk ratio, so that's not horrible, but the
• 27:20
  Speaker 1: walk rate is still too high for him. He was
• 27:25
  Speaker 1: good against the Red Sox last time out at Yankee Stadium.
• 27:27
  Speaker 1: The Red Sox still won the game, which this is
• 27:30
  Speaker 1: the same pitching matchup, but I think it was Freed
• 27:32
  Speaker 1: against Bao and BeO dueled him and they both didn't
• 27:35
  Speaker 1: allow any runs, and I think the Red Sox scored
• 27:37
  Speaker 1: a run off of the Yankees bullpen and won the game,
• 27:40
  Speaker 1: but Freed shut them out for six innings, even though
• 27:43
  Speaker 1: he did walk three guys. Freed is good against the
• 27:45
  Speaker 1: Red Sox and sixty three at bats a twenty to
• 27:48
  Speaker 1: nine strike aut walk ratio, though pretty similar to his
• 27:51
  Speaker 1: recent strikeout walk ratio. It's too many walks again, but
• 27:54
  Speaker 1: he has held him to a two zero six batting
• 27:56
  Speaker 1: average and six fifty one ohps. Both home runs from
• 27:59
  Speaker 1: the Red Sox again have come from Trevor Story Freed generally, though,
• 28:03
  Speaker 1: obviously as you can see right as you can see
• 28:06
  Speaker 1: right there, he does well against the Red Sox. Excuse me,
• 28:09
  Speaker 1: Brian Beao pitching for the Red Sox, he's not as
• 28:12
  Speaker 1: good as Freed, although he's having a decent season. He's
• 28:14
  Speaker 1: having his best season three point one two ERA, one
• 28:17
  Speaker 1: point two to one whip. His problem has always been walks.
• 28:20
  Speaker 1: He puts too many guys on base, and he kind
• 28:22
  Speaker 1: of escapes with a lot of ground balls and stuff.
• 28:25
  Speaker 1: He definitely started pitching better though towards the middle of
• 28:28
  Speaker 1: the season. He's actually slightly better on the I don't know.
• 28:30
  Speaker 1: He's slightly worse at home, excusing three point one to
• 28:33
  Speaker 1: ninety ra at home, but still he's pretty good either way.
• 28:36
  Speaker 1: As I said, he battled Freed in that last game
• 28:39
  Speaker 1: against the Yankees. He shut them out for seven innings,
• 28:41
  Speaker 1: so he actually outdueled Freed by an inning in that game.
• 28:45
  Speaker 1: BeO has has actually been pretty good against the Yankees. Overall,
• 28:50
  Speaker 1: I don't think he is that good. Really, he was
• 28:52
  Speaker 1: really good in August with a two point twenty seven
• 28:54
  Speaker 1: e RA twenty five to six strike at walk ratio.
• 28:57
  Speaker 1: Had he strung together two really good months after, even
• 29:00
  Speaker 1: though his ERA was low the entire season. He was
• 29:02
  Speaker 1: walking way too many guys early in the season, so
• 29:05
  Speaker 1: the advanced analytics guys and even me were like, this
• 29:07
  Speaker 1: guy's gonna regress. But he did figure something out because
• 29:11
  Speaker 1: he hasn'ten pitching better, although this month he hasn't been
• 29:13
  Speaker 1: quite as good. Four point nine to one ERA, six
• 29:16
  Speaker 1: to four strikeout walk ratio. That's pretty ugly. Not a
• 29:19
  Speaker 1: lot of strikeouts, too many walks, too many runs allowed.
• 29:24
  Speaker 1: One of those starts is at Arizona, which is a
• 29:26
  Speaker 1: difficult place to pitch, but he actually pitched better in
• 29:28
  Speaker 1: that one. He was worse at home against Cleveland, so
• 29:31
  Speaker 1: go figure. But again he does pitch well against the Yankees.
• 29:34
  Speaker 1: He's still generally pitching pretty well. He's allowed three or
• 29:36
  Speaker 1: fewer earned runs in his last five starts. The Red
• 29:39
  Speaker 1: Sox have won all of those outings, and he's picked
• 29:43
  Speaker 1: up a winning three of them against the Yankees. Like
• 29:46
  Speaker 1: I said, numbers pretty good in one hundred and thirteen
• 29:48
  Speaker 1: at bats thirty six to twelve strike at walk ratio
• 29:51
  Speaker 1: is decent two thirty batting every six to forty nine ohps.
• 29:55
  Speaker 1: So he's done well against the Yankees, although I don't
• 29:57
  Speaker 1: think he's as good as Free though, I believe the
• 30:00
  Speaker 1: money is coming in on the Yankees. Unfortunately, they're up
• 30:03
  Speaker 1: for minus one twenty seven to minus one thirty five.
• 30:05
  Speaker 1: But you're kind of paying a Yankee tax man, especially
• 30:09
  Speaker 1: with Free and on the Mounts. Maybe the price is
• 30:11
  Speaker 1: a little bit too high there, especially given that the
• 30:14
  Speaker 1: Red Sox do have a bullpen edge, and if you
• 30:16
  Speaker 1: if you happen to get both starters kind of dueling
• 30:18
  Speaker 1: each other and keeping the game close, the Red Sox
• 30:20
  Speaker 1: might wind up having the edge later in the game.
• 30:23
  Speaker 1: Eighty percent of tickets, ninety five percent of the cash
• 30:25
  Speaker 1: coming in on the Yankees though, So the money is
• 30:27
  Speaker 1: coming in on the Yankees. I mean, I'm gonna stay
• 30:30
  Speaker 1: away from I don't I don't even have really a
• 30:32
  Speaker 1: huge opinion on the side, although I think if you
• 30:34
  Speaker 1: like the Yankees, you gotta do it in the first
• 30:36
  Speaker 1: five innings. I think it'll be close though, and you'll
• 30:39
  Speaker 1: have to lay a favorite price on that. So I
• 30:41
  Speaker 1: don't think it's worth it really to do that because
• 30:44
  Speaker 1: I don't think there's a huge disparity in the starting
• 30:46
  Speaker 1: pitching there. But also obviously, if you play the Yankees,
• 30:50
  Speaker 1: I think you have to exclude their bullpen from the equation,
• 30:53
  Speaker 1: though possibly a first five inning under could be a
• 30:56
  Speaker 1: way to look here. The money is coming in on
• 30:57
  Speaker 1: the under, sixty seven percent of tickets on the over,
• 31:00
  Speaker 1: sixty eight percent of the cash on the under. Total
• 31:02
  Speaker 1: did flip from eight and ap juice to the under,
• 31:04
  Speaker 1: the eight and a half juice to the over. I
• 31:06
  Speaker 1: could see this going under in the first five though
• 31:08
  Speaker 1: I wouldn't really want to deal with the Yankees bullpen
• 31:11
  Speaker 1: later in the game, but I could see both pitchers
• 31:13
  Speaker 1: doing fairly well again and the game being low scoring
• 31:16
  Speaker 1: through the first five. We will see though. Caprice Son, Yeah, dude,
• 31:21
  Speaker 1: I like Caprice sons, man. I mean that was like
• 31:22
  Speaker 1: a childhood staple growing up, like through the nineties and whatever.
• 31:26
  Speaker 1: In the pouches. I love the Caprice Son man. It was. Yeah,
• 31:31
  Speaker 1: I'm trying to remember, like what the what the best
• 31:33
  Speaker 1: Caprice Sun flavors were, man, I think was it like
• 31:38
  Speaker 1: a like Pacific cooler or something like that that had
• 31:41
  Speaker 1: like some pineapple going on. I think it's one that
• 31:43
  Speaker 1: they might not even make anymore, if I remember, correct me,
• 31:46
  Speaker 1: something like that. That was a good one. I always
• 31:49
  Speaker 1: liked the cherry one, like the black cherry or whatever.
• 31:52
  Speaker 1: I am a cherry guy. And then I don't know,
• 31:55
  Speaker 1: I forget what else they had in a fruit punch
• 31:57
  Speaker 1: was pretty much a staple. I didn't mind that one.
• 31:59
  Speaker 1: I forget what else they had, Man, there was some
• 32:02
  Speaker 1: They had multiple different coolers, and one of them was
• 32:05
  Speaker 1: really good. I forget which one. I don't remember exactly though. Yeah,
• 32:10
  Speaker 1: Rangers and Mets. I'm gonna give them a play on
• 32:12
  Speaker 1: that one, so we'll hold that for the end of
• 32:14
  Speaker 1: the show. Royals at Philadelphia. Philadelphia has won five games
• 32:19
  Speaker 1: in a row now. They did not suffer a let
• 32:20
  Speaker 1: down yesterday against the Royals here after sweeping the Mets.
• 32:24
  Speaker 1: Philadelphia on fire right now. They've won eight of their
• 32:27
  Speaker 1: last nine games. Even though Philadelphia could be on cruise
• 32:30
  Speaker 1: control right now because they have a twelve game lead
• 32:33
  Speaker 1: over the Mets now in the division. The Mets have
• 32:35
  Speaker 1: totally collapsed again. The Mets are just unbelievably streaking. Philadelphia
• 32:39
  Speaker 1: is streaking themselves right now. Philadelphia really trying to catch
• 32:44
  Speaker 1: up to the Brewers, so they seem like they're actually
• 32:46
  Speaker 1: playing with some intent here. Although Kansas City they're still
• 32:49
  Speaker 1: in the wildcard race, so they still have reason to
• 32:51
  Speaker 1: play here as they're not really out of it yet.
• 32:53
  Speaker 1: They're still kind of hanging around in there. They're not
• 32:56
  Speaker 1: mathematically eliminated there within a reasonable distance of the wildcards. Still,
• 33:02
  Speaker 1: Kansas City has the better of these two bullpens, but
• 33:04
  Speaker 1: they used four relief pitchers yesterday. They've seen some pretty
• 33:07
  Speaker 1: heavy usage, although they didn't use They used hardly anybody
• 33:11
  Speaker 1: on Thursday, though, so it's not that bad. I guess
• 33:13
  Speaker 1: Philadelphia has the worst of the two bullpens. They did
• 33:16
  Speaker 1: use four relief pitchers yesterday, so Kansas City probably does
• 33:20
  Speaker 1: have the bullpen edge. Philadelphia has a significantly better offense
• 33:23
  Speaker 1: though obviously starting pitching probably you give the Edcha Kansas
• 33:28
  Speaker 1: City here with Ryan Bergere pitching, although he hasn't been
• 33:30
  Speaker 1: as good recently either. They picked him up from San
• 33:33
  Speaker 1: Diego around the trade deadline. There was a reason why
• 33:36
  Speaker 1: San Diego didn't really want to hold on to him.
• 33:40
  Speaker 1: He's got a three point four eighty RRA one point
• 33:42
  Speaker 1: two to three whip not bad, obviously not as good
• 33:45
  Speaker 1: on the road three point six y five roady RA.
• 33:48
  Speaker 1: He was pitching pretty well through like after Kansas City
• 33:52
  Speaker 1: got him. He'd allowed two or fewer earned runs in
• 33:56
  Speaker 1: six straight outings and then in his last out and
• 33:58
  Speaker 1: he got absolutely bombed by Cleveland for eight runs and
• 34:01
  Speaker 1: three and a third innings. Cleveland not a good offense,
• 34:04
  Speaker 1: it though, they've been pretty hot right now, but that's
• 34:05
  Speaker 1: not a good sign. It's also not a good sign
• 34:07
  Speaker 1: that he has nine strikeouts. It's six walks across two
• 34:10
  Speaker 1: starts this month, so Brigere, he's walking too many guys now, man,
• 34:14
  Speaker 1: So he seems to be coming out of form here,
• 34:17
  Speaker 1: which worries me. Nine point seven two ERA this month
• 34:21
  Speaker 1: definitely worries some. Although I know it's only two starts worth,
• 34:24
  Speaker 1: so it's not a big sample size. But he is
• 34:26
  Speaker 1: not in good recent form. His numbers against Philly or
• 34:28
  Speaker 1: hard to gauge because it's only thirteen at bats so
• 34:31
  Speaker 1: they haven't really faced him that much. Six strikeouts, one
• 34:34
  Speaker 1: walk is pretty good for him. Two thirty one average,
• 34:36
  Speaker 1: that's pretty good, but nine to seventy eight ops because
• 34:39
  Speaker 1: he's a lot of home runs to Castellanos and Schwarber,
• 34:42
  Speaker 1: two of the usual suspects on Philadelphia there. So I'm
• 34:47
  Speaker 1: not sure that Brigere is totally trustworthy here man, and
• 34:49
  Speaker 1: I don't think Taiwan Walker for the Phillies is trustworthy either.
• 34:53
  Speaker 1: He's got a four point zero three ERA one point
• 34:56
  Speaker 1: three to eight whip. His whip is definitely too high.
• 34:58
  Speaker 1: I mean, he's still kind of a serviceable pitcher like
• 35:01
  Speaker 1: and they kind of need him to be in their
• 35:02
  Speaker 1: rotation now with Wheeler injured, which is definitely gonna hurt Philly.
• 35:07
  Speaker 1: Philly having Wheeler not there anymore and their bullpen not
• 35:11
  Speaker 1: really that good. That could hurt Philly once once it
• 35:13
  Speaker 1: comes to the playoffs. Man, Walker, he is a walker.
• 35:17
  Speaker 1: He does put too many guys on base via the
• 35:20
  Speaker 1: walk and otherwise four point two five ERA at home,
• 35:24
  Speaker 1: so he's a little bit worse at home. Hasn't really
• 35:26
  Speaker 1: been good over his last three starts, four or more
• 35:28
  Speaker 1: and runs allowed in each of them. Very low strikeout
• 35:31
  Speaker 1: rate and the walk rate is too high. He has
• 35:33
  Speaker 1: more walks this month than strikeouts four walks, three strikeouts,
• 35:37
  Speaker 1: and an eight point one ERA. One of the starts
• 35:39
  Speaker 1: is against Milwaukee. They're a good offense, so maybe you
• 35:42
  Speaker 1: give him a little bit of pass for that. Kansas
• 35:44
  Speaker 1: City is not a good offense. He didn't do very
• 35:47
  Speaker 1: well against Miami last time and either though at least
• 35:49
  Speaker 1: he got them through six innings though and kept them
• 35:51
  Speaker 1: in the game. But against Miami that wasn't that impressive.
• 35:55
  Speaker 1: Gonna have Feurign runs. His numbers are mediocre against the
• 35:58
  Speaker 1: Royals in his career, sixty nine bats, thirteen to eight
• 36:01
  Speaker 1: strike a walk ratio, not a great ratio, two seventy
• 36:05
  Speaker 1: five batting every seven thirteen ops. It's not a high ops.
• 36:08
  Speaker 1: But he doesn't exactly do great against them. So this game,
• 36:14
  Speaker 1: I mean, my thoughts on this game are kind of
• 36:16
  Speaker 1: leaning towards the over. The total has gone up from
• 36:18
  Speaker 1: nine to nine and a half, so you would have
• 36:20
  Speaker 1: to go over the nine and a half on that
• 36:22
  Speaker 1: Nine is a key number in baseball, so it would
• 36:24
  Speaker 1: be much more preferable to go over in nine than
• 36:26
  Speaker 1: nine and a half because nine is what breaks the
• 36:28
  Speaker 1: four to four tie. Ninety seven percent take is ninety
• 36:31
  Speaker 1: eight percent of the cash on the over. The public
• 36:33
  Speaker 1: is on the over, but in this one, I'm not
• 36:35
  Speaker 1: quite sure that they're actually wrong, So I mean, I
• 36:39
  Speaker 1: could see the over happening in this one. Both bullpends
• 36:42
  Speaker 1: a little bit untrustworthy right now. I don't really trust
• 36:44
  Speaker 1: either starter either, so I could see that game going over.
• 36:47
  Speaker 1: Philly is down for minus one forty five to minus
• 36:49
  Speaker 1: one forty eighty eight percent to take his ninety six
• 36:51
  Speaker 1: percent of cash, so they are public, but it looks
• 36:54
  Speaker 1: like maybe some of the cash coming into Philly. That's
• 36:56
  Speaker 1: hard to gauge, though. Man, I'm not sure that I
• 36:58
  Speaker 1: would trust Walker over per Ja, even though Bgei has
• 37:02
  Speaker 1: been worse recently. I mean, they both haven't really been
• 37:04
  Speaker 1: very good recently, so I think Burgeire is actually still
• 37:07
  Speaker 1: probably the better starter, So I mean, I I wouldn't
• 37:11
  Speaker 1: really disagree with leaning towards Kansas City on the money
• 37:13
  Speaker 1: line in this game, even including their bullpens. But I
• 37:16
  Speaker 1: think the preferable way to look at that game is
• 37:18
  Speaker 1: an over. But we'll see how good I am engauging
• 37:22
  Speaker 1: this stuff at this point, because it hasn't been good.
• 37:24
  Speaker 1: You have four kids, that's yeah, that's awesome. Man. You're
• 37:28
  Speaker 1: buying a lot of caprice Sons. Do you buy them
• 37:30
  Speaker 1: in bulk? Do you go to like Costco something like that?
• 37:33
  Speaker 1: They probably have them at Costco. Right, so you can
• 37:36
  Speaker 1: buy the Caprice Sons in bulk, Man, you'll get it
• 37:38
  Speaker 1: and you'll get a discount. Anna, what's up? Thanks for
• 37:43
  Speaker 1: hanging out again, even though I know you don't like
• 37:45
  Speaker 1: sports ball, I'm in your algo again, all right. That's
• 37:48
  Speaker 1: that's that's because you're in my DMS that bumps people
• 37:51
  Speaker 1: in the Algo and you're dming people they show up
• 37:54
  Speaker 1: in the Algo. White Sox Cleveland. I'm actually gonna give
• 37:57
  Speaker 1: out a play on that game, so that'll be in
• 37:59
  Speaker 1: the best Bets segment. Arizona at Minnesota. These are two
• 38:03
  Speaker 1: teams with bad bullpens man and that showed up yesterday
• 38:06
  Speaker 1: as we had a close, high scoring game with Minnesota
• 38:09
  Speaker 1: winning the game nine to eight. I mean, these teams
• 38:11
  Speaker 1: know they're not going anywhere. These two teams are playing
• 38:13
  Speaker 1: out the stretch. Minnesota was returning over from a road
• 38:15
  Speaker 1: trip from the Pacific Coast and they still got the win,
• 38:18
  Speaker 1: which is interesting. Clemens hit three home runs in that game.
• 38:22
  Speaker 1: Is he Roger Clemens's son? I actually don't even know
• 38:24
  Speaker 1: if he is, or if he isn't, but he hit
• 38:26
  Speaker 1: three home runs in the game for minnesot I think
• 38:28
  Speaker 1: he actually might be. I would have to look at that.
• 38:30
  Speaker 1: But he's not a pitcher. He's a bad or. I
• 38:33
  Speaker 1: don't I forget what position he even plays. But he
• 38:35
  Speaker 1: did have three home runs in the game yesterday, so
• 38:39
  Speaker 1: we know we have two bad bullpens here, which kind
• 38:41
  Speaker 1: of automatically makes me think over when I think of
• 38:44
  Speaker 1: a game like this. Arizona used a bunch of their
• 38:46
  Speaker 1: relief pitchers yesterday too. Minnesota used four of theirs as well,
• 38:50
  Speaker 1: though they didn't use any yesterday or excuse me, the
• 38:53
  Speaker 1: day before that, Thursday. But the bullpens are bad, so
• 38:56
  Speaker 1: I mean, I could definitely see there being a lot
• 38:57
  Speaker 1: of runs scored again in this game in the later
• 39:00
  Speaker 1: portions of the game. Looking at the starting pitching, I
• 39:03
  Speaker 1: actually think that both starting pitchers might be fadable here too,
• 39:06
  Speaker 1: So I actually do think the over is the best
• 39:08
  Speaker 1: way to look at this. Ryan Nelson is pitching for Arizona.
• 39:11
  Speaker 1: I think this could be a sneaky over actually, I
• 39:13
  Speaker 1: mean it was close to being a play for me, actually,
• 39:15
  Speaker 1: because both starting pitchers have good numbers on the season,
• 39:18
  Speaker 1: but there are reasons to fade both of them. Here.
• 39:21
  Speaker 1: Nelson three point four to eighty RA this year, one
• 39:24
  Speaker 1: point zero five whip, and I've mentioned that it's a much.
• 39:28
  Speaker 1: It's like it's a big time outlier season for him.
• 39:31
  Speaker 1: I don't really get it. But there was that incident
• 39:33
  Speaker 1: where he had like whatever was on his hat there
• 39:35
  Speaker 1: it looked like he was using pine tar. He could
• 39:37
  Speaker 1: be using foreign substances. Man at home, I don't really
• 39:40
  Speaker 1: understand why. Like Arizona's pitching, they all got worse this
• 39:44
  Speaker 1: year except Nelson inexplicably got better. Makes no sense. It
• 39:47
  Speaker 1: makes no sense that he pitches better at home in
• 39:50
  Speaker 1: a hitter friendly park, so there's something going on there.
• 39:52
  Speaker 1: In my opinion, he is worse on the road four
• 39:54
  Speaker 1: point sixty seven ROADYRA, so he is more fadable in
• 39:58
  Speaker 1: a spot like this. He's still pitching fairly well over
• 40:01
  Speaker 1: the last couple of months. If he did have a
• 40:03
  Speaker 1: twenty seven to four strikeout walk ratio in August ten
• 40:05
  Speaker 1: to four this month isn't as good, but he's allowed
• 40:08
  Speaker 1: three or fewer earned runs of four starts in a row,
• 40:11
  Speaker 1: so he's been okay. Had a four point six ERA
• 40:14
  Speaker 1: last month, which wasn't that good. But yeah, I'm generally
• 40:18
  Speaker 1: he is pitching all right, but he again he might
• 40:21
  Speaker 1: be fadable on the road though in Minnesota only seventeen
• 40:24
  Speaker 1: at baths, small sample size. Even though their offense isn't
• 40:27
  Speaker 1: that good, they have hit him pretty well. They only
• 40:29
  Speaker 1: have one strikeout against him, no walks, three fifty three
• 40:32
  Speaker 1: batting average allowed in nine to fifty seven ops. So
• 40:35
  Speaker 1: they have been able to get to Ryan Nelson in
• 40:37
  Speaker 1: the limited sample size that they faced him, So they
• 40:40
  Speaker 1: might be able to hit him again here. And he
• 40:42
  Speaker 1: is worse on the road, like I said, so there
• 40:45
  Speaker 1: is a chance there. Arizona does have the better offense
• 40:48
  Speaker 1: here than Minnesota does. They're going up against Joe Ryan,
• 40:52
  Speaker 1: Joe Ryan Nelson in this game. Joe Ryan is pitching
• 40:56
  Speaker 1: for the Minnesota. He is their ace. He is really good.
• 40:59
  Speaker 1: Three point three two one point zero one whip good stuff.
• 41:02
  Speaker 1: He is better at home three point one eighty ra
• 41:05
  Speaker 1: at home. But he hasn't been as good recently Man
• 41:08
  Speaker 1: Three of his last four starts he's allowed five or
• 41:10
  Speaker 1: more in runs. So it seems like with his team
• 41:13
  Speaker 1: out of it, getting towards the end of the season,
• 41:16
  Speaker 1: maybe a little bit of a lapse there for a Ryan,
• 41:18
  Speaker 1: even though he was still good with his strikeout walk
• 41:20
  Speaker 1: ratio over that span was still actually really good twenty
• 41:23
  Speaker 1: three to three in those three starts to end August,
• 41:25
  Speaker 1: even though he a lot a bunch of runs over
• 41:27
  Speaker 1: that span. This month not so much though. In his
• 41:30
  Speaker 1: one start, which was against Kansas City, a very weak lineup,
• 41:33
  Speaker 1: he gave up five and runs and two innings on
• 41:37
  Speaker 1: the road in a pitcher friendly park at Kansas City,
• 41:39
  Speaker 1: two strikeouts, four walks. I got some concerns about Joe
• 41:43
  Speaker 1: Ryan coming into this one man Arizona. They don't have
• 41:45
  Speaker 1: a whole lot of experience against him. Eleven at bats
• 41:48
  Speaker 1: against him, two seventy three batting average eight to eighteen ops,
• 41:51
  Speaker 1: no strikeouts, no walks, and a home run from Marte,
• 41:55
  Speaker 1: So it is possible that Joe Ryan doesn't do particularly
• 41:58
  Speaker 1: well in this game. The money line dropped on Minnesota
• 42:00
  Speaker 1: from minus one forty eight to minus one thirty seven,
• 42:03
  Speaker 1: sixty eight percent of tickets and eighty eight percent of
• 42:05
  Speaker 1: cash on Minnesota, so they are taking the money. I
• 42:08
  Speaker 1: don't know if I really see that. I mean, I
• 42:11
  Speaker 1: guess I see the argument that Ryan is still better
• 42:13
  Speaker 1: than Ryan Nelson and Nelson not good on the road.
• 42:16
  Speaker 1: So I mean, I understand wanted to back Joe Ryan
• 42:18
  Speaker 1: at home, I would go I mean, you could, I guess,
• 42:21
  Speaker 1: go full game if you wanted to do that, because
• 42:23
  Speaker 1: I do think Minnesota still has the better the two
• 42:25
  Speaker 1: bullpends too, even though they suck. But my preference in
• 42:28
  Speaker 1: this game is the over total is pretty reasonable. It's
• 42:32
  Speaker 1: just sitting at eight, although it is juice to the over,
• 42:34
  Speaker 1: but it's in no man's land. They're not on a
• 42:36
  Speaker 1: key number. Eighty eight percent to take is nine seven
• 42:38
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash on the over, so the public
• 42:41
  Speaker 1: is on the over, but they're not always wrong, and
• 42:43
  Speaker 1: it looks like the money is joining them on that one. Yeah.
• 42:48
  Speaker 1: All the homemies sliding to my DMS. Yeah, mostly men.
• 42:50
  Speaker 1: Obviously Clemens has Kobe and Cody, so that is one
• 42:54
  Speaker 1: of his sons. Where's his other son? Hat I don't
• 42:57
  Speaker 1: even know. Two win the majors and four sons overall
• 43:03
  Speaker 1: are interesting to know. I don't know too much. I
• 43:05
  Speaker 1: should know more about Clemens though he was a little
• 43:07
  Speaker 1: bit before my time when he was on the Red Sox.
• 43:09
  Speaker 1: I mean, his glory days with the Red Sox were
• 43:12
  Speaker 1: mostly like in the eighties when I was like, I
• 43:14
  Speaker 1: was like way too young. I remember him a bit,
• 43:16
  Speaker 1: and then I mostly remember us starting to hate him
• 43:19
  Speaker 1: because he left the Red Sox and then he went
• 43:21
  Speaker 1: to Toronto and the Yankees, and we really hated him
• 43:25
  Speaker 1: when he was on the Yankees. And then he went
• 43:27
  Speaker 1: to Houston, I believe, right, and they did they win worlds? Know,
• 43:32
  Speaker 1: they lost the World Series to the White Sox, right,
• 43:34
  Speaker 1: Houston did, and I remember, am I remembering that? Right?
• 43:36
  Speaker 1: I think so? When I was in college. I think
• 43:39
  Speaker 1: Clemens was still pitching in two thousand and five or
• 43:42
  Speaker 1: whatever it was. I think he was on Houston. I
• 43:43
  Speaker 1: think they lost to the White Sox in the World
• 43:46
  Speaker 1: Series after the White Sox eliminated the Red Sox, if
• 43:48
  Speaker 1: I remember correctly. Maybe I misremembered all of that though.
• 43:53
  Speaker 1: Speaking of Houston, they're at Atlanta. I don't even want
• 43:55
  Speaker 1: to talk about this series after what happened yesterday. I
• 43:57
  Speaker 1: don't know what the hell that was Atlanta. They've lost
• 44:00
  Speaker 1: three games in a row. I mean, Houston does have
• 44:02
  Speaker 1: more to play for here, Houston. They're actually in the
• 44:05
  Speaker 1: Wildcard race now because Houston has fallen behind Seattle because
• 44:09
  Speaker 1: Seattle's been hot, or actually they might be tied still
• 44:12
  Speaker 1: because they both won yesterday, but Seattle is the tie breaker,
• 44:15
  Speaker 1: I believe, so Houston they got to still win. Man,
• 44:17
  Speaker 1: they're trying to either win their division or get a
• 44:19
  Speaker 1: wildcard spot. Atlanta is out of it, but they are
• 44:22
  Speaker 1: playing out the stretch and Lanta, you, I thought they
• 44:25
  Speaker 1: were gonna show up yesterday for a game against Houston
• 44:27
  Speaker 1: because Houston is still a pretty solid team coming into
• 44:31
  Speaker 1: their place. But I was wrong. It was a terrible
• 44:34
  Speaker 1: game for Atlanta yesterday. Houston has the better of these
• 44:37
  Speaker 1: two bullpends and the better offense, but I don't think
• 44:40
  Speaker 1: it's a significant edge, and with Houston's bullpend injuries, it's
• 44:45
  Speaker 1: I think it's really not that much of an edge.
• 44:47
  Speaker 1: Houston used more of their bullpend yesterday too, so I
• 44:50
  Speaker 1: think the bullpen edge is pretty much not even really
• 44:52
  Speaker 1: there for Houston. It could you could even argue maybe
• 44:54
  Speaker 1: Atlanta has a bullpen edge. At this point, Houston's is
• 44:58
  Speaker 1: the better era overall, though Atlanta's has actually fallen way off,
• 45:02
  Speaker 1: so I think you still have to probably give the
• 45:04
  Speaker 1: bullpen edge to Houston overall, even despite the injuries and
• 45:09
  Speaker 1: everything and the usage starting pitching. On the surface, it
• 45:16
  Speaker 1: looks like a complete mismatch. It looks like one good
• 45:18
  Speaker 1: pitcher against one bad pitcher. But maybe I'm not so
• 45:21
  Speaker 1: sure about that. Hunter Brown is pitching for Houston. He's
• 45:24
  Speaker 1: having a really good season. Two point two five ERA,
• 45:27
  Speaker 1: one point zero one whip. He's been almost the same
• 45:30
  Speaker 1: home and away ERA wise, doesn't even matter. He's good
• 45:32
  Speaker 1: either way. He's been really good again for well over
• 45:36
  Speaker 1: a month now, basically since he had like kind of
• 45:38
  Speaker 1: a just he was a little bit bad around the
• 45:41
  Speaker 1: All Star break, he got named to the All Star
• 45:43
  Speaker 1: team for the first time, didn't pitch in the All
• 45:45
  Speaker 1: Star Game, but then he turned it back around and
• 45:47
  Speaker 1: since his last start in July, he's allowed no more
• 45:50
  Speaker 1: than touring runs in any of his outings, and he's
• 45:52
  Speaker 1: gone at least six innings and all but two of them,
• 45:54
  Speaker 1: so he's been pretty much dominating. One point six to
• 45:57
  Speaker 1: seventy RA in August, thirty three to eleven strike walk ratio.
• 46:00
  Speaker 1: It is too many walks, so something to keep in mind.
• 46:03
  Speaker 1: He's coming off a six inn and shut out a
• 46:05
  Speaker 1: pretty big series there against Texas where he did that
• 46:09
  Speaker 1: in a pitcher friend the ballpark against a weak lineup,
• 46:11
  Speaker 1: though in Texas had eight strikeouts, three walks, four hits allowed,
• 46:15
  Speaker 1: so again it was too many walks. But Brown, he
• 46:17
  Speaker 1: is still striking out a lot of guys. He's still
• 46:19
  Speaker 1: pitching well. His numbers against Atlanta are actually surprisingly not
• 46:23
  Speaker 1: that good though in twenty nine at bats. It is
• 46:26
  Speaker 1: a small sample size, but four to seven strike out
• 46:28
  Speaker 1: walk ratio that's pretty questionable in a three to ten
• 46:31
  Speaker 1: batting average allowed in eight to fifty eight ops, those
• 46:35
  Speaker 1: are questionable numbers. But the question is has he faced
• 46:39
  Speaker 1: Atlanta this year? Did they do that to him this year?
• 46:41
  Speaker 1: The answer is no, So Hunter Brown early in his
• 46:45
  Speaker 1: career he had not found his stuff yet, Like he
• 46:48
  Speaker 1: was really bad early in his career. So I don't
• 46:50
  Speaker 1: think that those numbers mean that much now because he's
• 46:54
  Speaker 1: been he's so much better this year. He's like, really
• 46:57
  Speaker 1: his career has started to take off. So I think
• 46:59
  Speaker 1: his numbers a get Atlanta were from back when he
• 47:01
  Speaker 1: wasn't as good. So I think the way that he's
• 47:03
  Speaker 1: pitched recently, the way that he's pitched this year, matters
• 47:06
  Speaker 1: more than those numbers against the Braves. So I think
• 47:09
  Speaker 1: Brown should come out and pitch well. Here he's going
• 47:11
  Speaker 1: up against Bryce Elder, who is a guy I make
• 47:14
  Speaker 1: fun of him on the show most of the time.
• 47:16
  Speaker 1: I think his name is kind of appropriate because he
• 47:18
  Speaker 1: pitches like an Elder. Still, his numbers are bad on
• 47:21
  Speaker 1: the season five point three five v. One point four
• 47:24
  Speaker 1: to one Whip. His numbers on his career haven't been good.
• 47:27
  Speaker 1: He's been pretty bad at home six point four to
• 47:29
  Speaker 1: four ERA. I mean, that's really bad. But his last
• 47:34
  Speaker 1: five four starts six four starts have been good, and
• 47:36
  Speaker 1: they were all against good offenses against the Mets on
• 47:39
  Speaker 1: the road, at Philly, at the Cubs, and then at
• 47:42
  Speaker 1: home against the Cubs. He allowed no more than two
• 47:43
  Speaker 1: hour runs in any of those outings when at least
• 47:46
  Speaker 1: six innings in all of them, and he had a
• 47:49
  Speaker 1: what is that a twenty one to five strike out
• 47:52
  Speaker 1: walk ratio. That's man if I'm doing that math correctly
• 47:54
  Speaker 1: on the fly. There. So for some reason, Elder all
• 47:57
  Speaker 1: of a sudden, is in good form right now, which ridiculous.
• 48:01
  Speaker 1: So both of these pictures actually are. Although his numbers
• 48:03
  Speaker 1: are not good against Houston and forty seven at bats
• 48:06
  Speaker 1: ten to two strike on walker ratio is good, but
• 48:08
  Speaker 1: at two to ninety eight batting average eight point fifty
• 48:10
  Speaker 1: one ops, he has not been good against Houston. Did
• 48:14
  Speaker 1: he face Houston this year? I believe he is not
• 48:18
  Speaker 1: Probably not right because these teams don't play each other often.
• 48:20
  Speaker 1: It's an interleague series, and I think the only play
• 48:23
  Speaker 1: if they play at all, I think they only played
• 48:25
  Speaker 1: once a year. So yeah, So these pictures haven't been
• 48:27
  Speaker 1: seen by these opposing hitters this year, which is a
• 48:29
  Speaker 1: little bit of an edge to these pictures. So I
• 48:32
  Speaker 1: actually kind of lean more towards recent form for these
• 48:35
  Speaker 1: pictures rather than what they've done against these starting lineups.
• 48:39
  Speaker 1: So I think it's possible when under is worth a
• 48:42
  Speaker 1: look here, though you might want to go first five innings,
• 48:44
  Speaker 1: just because I don't know if I love the state
• 48:45
  Speaker 1: of the bullpens or love Atlanta's bullpen total went up
• 48:49
  Speaker 1: from eight to eight and a half seventy percent to
• 48:50
  Speaker 1: take a seventy eight percent of the cash coming in
• 48:52
  Speaker 1: on the over. Money is coming in a bit on
• 48:54
  Speaker 1: the over, but I could see it being a duel
• 48:57
  Speaker 1: early on man between these two pictures. Surprise and the
• 49:00
  Speaker 1: money looks like it has come in on Houston even
• 49:02
  Speaker 1: though the public is on Houston nine three percent of
• 49:04
  Speaker 1: tickets ninety seven percent of the cash. The line did
• 49:07
  Speaker 1: move from minus one pin fifteen to minus one twenty nine.
• 49:10
  Speaker 1: You haven't to be a price with Houston. I'm not
• 49:12
  Speaker 1: entirely sure that it's worth it, although you could do it.
• 49:15
  Speaker 1: I mean, Houston doesn't have the less rested bullpen, and
• 49:18
  Speaker 1: the Atlanta's woopend's not that good. I still do trust
• 49:21
  Speaker 1: Brown more than Elder here, so I don't hate the
• 49:25
  Speaker 1: lean towards Houston, but it looks like a bit of
• 49:27
  Speaker 1: a price there. Man. Saint Louis at Milwaukee is gonna
• 49:30
  Speaker 1: be the only game on like General TV. Major League
• 49:33
  Speaker 1: Baseball just gets no like they just it doesn't get
• 49:37
  Speaker 1: televised anymore. Man, it's insane. But we do have a
• 49:39
  Speaker 1: Fox Night game here between Saint Louis and Milwaukee. We
• 49:42
  Speaker 1: really get a great game here between one team that's
• 49:45
  Speaker 1: got the best record in baseball, Milwaukee, and then a
• 49:48
  Speaker 1: Saint Louis team that's been the worst offense since the
• 49:50
  Speaker 1: All Star break and is completely out of it. So
• 49:53
  Speaker 1: Milwaukee has the better offense. Milwaukee has a bit more
• 49:56
  Speaker 1: to play for here because they're still trying to make
• 49:58
  Speaker 1: sure that they hold on to the I mean, they
• 50:00
  Speaker 1: would like to get the one seed and have home
• 50:01
  Speaker 1: field throughout the playoffs, and Philly is getting pretty close
• 50:05
  Speaker 1: to them, so Milwaukee does need to kind of maintain that.
• 50:07
  Speaker 1: Even it looks like they kind of put themselves on
• 50:10
  Speaker 1: cruise control. They return home from a road trip and
• 50:12
  Speaker 1: they still won yesterday eight to two against Saint Louis,
• 50:16
  Speaker 1: even though they were in a bad spot. So I
• 50:18
  Speaker 1: take from that what you will. I guess after they
• 50:20
  Speaker 1: got swept by Texas in the prior series, Milwaukee did,
• 50:24
  Speaker 1: but Milwaukee kind of bounce it back here Saint Louis.
• 50:26
  Speaker 1: They will still show up for a game against Milwaukee though,
• 50:30
  Speaker 1: you know, I mean, it's the team of the best
• 50:32
  Speaker 1: record in baseball. It's a divisional foe, so Saint Louis
• 50:35
  Speaker 1: playing out the stretch. This is the type of series
• 50:37
  Speaker 1: that will still matter, especially when it's on national TV
• 50:40
  Speaker 1: at night. They will show up for it. Saint Louis
• 50:42
  Speaker 1: does have the better of the two bullpens still, so
• 50:45
  Speaker 1: They're hitting hasn't been good at all, but their bullpen
• 50:47
  Speaker 1: is pretty solid starting pitching. I think the edge does
• 50:51
  Speaker 1: go to Milwaukee here, and generally I like both of
• 50:53
  Speaker 1: these starting pitchers. Sonny Gray is pitching for Saint Louis,
• 50:56
  Speaker 1: but he's I think he's just kind of tiring out
• 50:59
  Speaker 1: at the end of the season. Man. He's a little
• 51:00
  Speaker 1: bit older, he's a small guy, so maybe he gets
• 51:03
  Speaker 1: a little bit more tired. I don't know. He seems
• 51:05
  Speaker 1: to be wearing down though, because he is a solid pitcher,
• 51:08
  Speaker 1: but it just hasn't been good for him as of late.
• 51:11
  Speaker 1: As ERA is up to four point four to five
• 51:13
  Speaker 1: on the season, one point two to whip is alright,
• 51:16
  Speaker 1: he's worse on the road five point two to four
• 51:18
  Speaker 1: road ERA. This month he has a seven point nine
• 51:22
  Speaker 1: to four ERA and two starts and an eleven to
• 51:24
  Speaker 1: seven strike out walk ratio, and those were both starts
• 51:26
  Speaker 1: at home, and he actually does better at home. So
• 51:30
  Speaker 1: that's not a good sign, man, I forgot I skipped
• 51:32
  Speaker 1: over that. On the road is the IRA's five point
• 51:34
  Speaker 1: twenty four, So that's not good. He is worse on
• 51:36
  Speaker 1: the road. So that's not looking that great for Gray.
• 51:39
  Speaker 1: I don't think I trust him right now, man, even
• 51:40
  Speaker 1: though more often than not he does have good starts,
• 51:44
  Speaker 1: but just recently he hasn't been very good against Milwaukee.
• 51:49
  Speaker 1: Not good numbers. They have a lot of familiarity with him.
• 51:52
  Speaker 1: One hundred and forty one at bats, forty to eleven
• 51:54
  Speaker 1: strike at walk ratio is good, but two eighty four
• 51:56
  Speaker 1: batting average, eight forty six oh ps, allowed five different
• 51:59
  Speaker 1: places of homered off him, so he doesn't do particularly
• 52:03
  Speaker 1: well against Milwaukee's not good on the road. He's not
• 52:05
  Speaker 1: really in good for him. He definitely looks fadable in
• 52:07
  Speaker 1: this spot. He's going up against Brandon Woodruff for the Brewers,
• 52:11
  Speaker 1: who has been good so far. Woodruff had a really
• 52:14
  Speaker 1: good early portion of his career. He's now coming back
• 52:16
  Speaker 1: from missing an entire season. He had Tommy John surgery.
• 52:20
  Speaker 1: I'm pretty sure he's back, and he pitched really well
• 52:22
  Speaker 1: when he first came back. He's been a little bit
• 52:24
  Speaker 1: worse more recently, but he's still overall been good this season.
• 52:28
  Speaker 1: Three point three two ERA point nine to six whip.
• 52:31
  Speaker 1: He's been a little bit worse at home though, three
• 52:33
  Speaker 1: point six seven homey IRA. He was really good early on.
• 52:37
  Speaker 1: He allowed two or fewer earned runs when he first
• 52:40
  Speaker 1: came back in seven straight appearances. Then he had a
• 52:43
  Speaker 1: lull where he had three bad starts in a row
• 52:45
  Speaker 1: at the end of August against the Cobbs Arizona Toronto,
• 52:49
  Speaker 1: two of those on the road. Those are all good offenses.
• 52:52
  Speaker 1: Bounce back nicely last time out against a bad Pittsburgh offense.
• 52:55
  Speaker 1: Six innings pitch, eight strikeouts, no walks, two hits allowed,
• 52:59
  Speaker 1: so he might be coming back can form here. And
• 53:01
  Speaker 1: we know Saint Louis does not have a very good
• 53:03
  Speaker 1: offense either, and they've been really bad for a while now,
• 53:06
  Speaker 1: so he should do better in this game. His numbers
• 53:08
  Speaker 1: are very good against them in forty at bats, fifteen strikeouts,
• 53:12
  Speaker 1: four walks, seventy five batting avers, willow five hundred ops.
• 53:18
  Speaker 1: He's a lot of home run to Newt bar which
• 53:20
  Speaker 1: the nuke bar sounds like a that almost it sounds
• 53:24
  Speaker 1: like a candy bar some kind in the nut bar,
• 53:27
  Speaker 1: it's a chocolate bar with plenty of different nuts in it.
• 53:30
  Speaker 1: The nut bar, it's some like I don't know what
• 53:34
  Speaker 1: it is. It's a what is that Dutch? Is that Danish?
• 53:37
  Speaker 1: I don't know what that is. It's a it's a
• 53:39
  Speaker 1: Dutch chocolate bar with a bunch of different kinds of
• 53:41
  Speaker 1: nuts in it. Man, eat your nuts with the nut bar. Yeah,
• 53:46
  Speaker 1: Woodrooff does have the edge here, man, though it is
• 53:48
  Speaker 1: tempting to look towards Milwaukee in this game. To be honest,
• 53:51
  Speaker 1: I'm looking at the bullpen rest scenario Milwaukee on these
• 53:54
  Speaker 1: three relief pitchers yesterday, although keeping in mind they have
• 53:57
  Speaker 1: some injuries in their bullpen, and hilariously, Eric Fatty is
• 54:01
  Speaker 1: in their bullpen, who was terrible in the starry rotation
• 54:04
  Speaker 1: for Saint Louis this year, they designated ver Simon. It's
• 54:07
  Speaker 1: ridiculous that Milwaukee even decided to pick him up. Saint
• 54:10
  Speaker 1: Louis has the better bullpend. Still, then they used fewer
• 54:12
  Speaker 1: relief pitchers yesterday, so I could see an even better
• 54:17
  Speaker 1: argument from Milwaukee first five innings with wood Druff against
• 54:20
  Speaker 1: Gray here. Oh wait, what am I doing? It's not
• 54:23
  Speaker 1: Woodroff anymore. I'm an idiot. I apologize. Missierowski is pitching,
• 54:27
  Speaker 1: not wood Druff, so we're gonna have to dial that back.
• 54:30
  Speaker 1: So I'm not gonna give out a play on this.
• 54:31
  Speaker 1: It's a different handicap, but with whoops, I think I
• 54:35
  Speaker 1: just what did I just do? I think I just
• 54:38
  Speaker 1: screwed up the wait? Did I what did I do?
• 54:42
  Speaker 1: I don't even know what I just did. Am I
• 54:44
  Speaker 1: still on the same screen here? I was sharing my
• 54:46
  Speaker 1: screen like Firefox fucked up? I don't know. I don't
• 54:48
  Speaker 1: even know what I'm looking at here. Maybe we're still good.
• 54:51
  Speaker 1: I don't know. Yeah, I think we're all right. We're
• 54:53
  Speaker 1: still all right here. But anyway, Milwaukee Missierowski is pitching day.
• 54:58
  Speaker 1: Sorry I got thrown off by that. So he's young,
• 55:01
  Speaker 1: very talented pitcher. What are we gonna get out of
• 55:05
  Speaker 1: him in this one? Though? I don't know? It's interesting.
• 55:07
  Speaker 1: He has a four point oh nine era, which is
• 55:09
  Speaker 1: a bit too high, but one point oh nine whip.
• 55:12
  Speaker 1: He's not allowing a lot of guys to reach base man.
• 55:14
  Speaker 1: He's wild. He walks too many guys. He is a
• 55:16
  Speaker 1: very talented, hard throwing rookie, gets a lot of strikeouts.
• 55:20
  Speaker 1: His issue is his walks. He issues too many walks.
• 55:24
  Speaker 1: He is way better at home, though, two point seven
• 55:26
  Speaker 1: to sixty r at home. However, he's not gonna have
• 55:29
  Speaker 1: the unfamiliarity edge here that he has against some opponents.
• 55:31
  Speaker 1: Because Saint Louis saw him in his first appearance ever,
• 55:35
  Speaker 1: he he'd no hit them for five innings though, but
• 55:39
  Speaker 1: he did walk four guys, so again, he doesn't allow
• 55:41
  Speaker 1: a lot of hits when he walks. A lot of
• 55:42
  Speaker 1: guys had five strikeouts in that appearance. It was at home,
• 55:46
  Speaker 1: so we're returning to where he was when he made
• 55:49
  Speaker 1: that start. So he's gonna try to repeat his first
• 55:52
  Speaker 1: major league start man his debut. But I mean, you
• 55:56
  Speaker 1: got to kind of weigh both factors, right, So he
• 55:57
  Speaker 1: had an unfamiliar unfamiliarity edge there, which he doesn't have
• 56:01
  Speaker 1: this time because Saint Louis has now seen him. But
• 56:03
  Speaker 1: then Saint Louis does they really stink offensively? And Miszierowski
• 56:07
  Speaker 1: is a really good pitcher. So is he gonna win
• 56:09
  Speaker 1: out again here? He might? So, as we can see here,
• 56:12
  Speaker 1: Saint Louis's hitters that are in their current lineup are
• 56:14
  Speaker 1: over twelve, often with five strikets and four walks, just
• 56:17
  Speaker 1: like we saw on that pitching line there that he had.
• 56:21
  Speaker 1: So Mizierowski is actually the starter here. Now Milwaukee's down
• 56:25
  Speaker 1: for minus one fifty seven to minus one fifty two,
• 56:28
  Speaker 1: eighty nine percent of tickets on the ninety two percent
• 56:30
  Speaker 1: of the cash on Milwaukee. I would still say a
• 56:33
  Speaker 1: similar thing here. I think the lean is still to
• 56:36
  Speaker 1: Milwaukee in the first five innings here, But I'd be
• 56:38
  Speaker 1: much more tempted to do with woodroof on the mountain. Uh,
• 56:41
  Speaker 1: you'd have to lay like the run line on it
• 56:44
  Speaker 1: looks yeah, I mean it looks a little bit iffy.
• 56:47
  Speaker 1: So I'm not gonna recommend it. The totals at seven
• 56:50
  Speaker 1: and a half with less juice on the over now,
• 56:52
  Speaker 1: but seventy six percent tickets and eighty eight percent of
• 56:54
  Speaker 1: the cash on the over, even though on the surface
• 56:57
  Speaker 1: it looks like it's gonna be a pitching duel. So
• 56:59
  Speaker 1: you could see some argument for maybe going under in
• 57:01
  Speaker 1: the first five, especially if you can get a four
• 57:03
  Speaker 1: on that. But Gray he's just in such bad form
• 57:06
  Speaker 1: right now, and he's so bad on the road that
• 57:08
  Speaker 1: I would worry about that quite a bit. H Mizierowski,
• 57:11
  Speaker 1: by the way, in his his recent form is better.
• 57:14
  Speaker 1: He had a good start last time out, although I
• 57:16
  Speaker 1: think it was against Pittsburgh because that's who we saw
• 57:19
  Speaker 1: that with wood drift too. They it's Pittsburgh is the
• 57:22
  Speaker 1: offense that he bounced back against men. So Missierowski actually
• 57:25
  Speaker 1: had a few pretty bad starts in a row against
• 57:27
  Speaker 1: Cincinnati on the road, Chicago Cubs on the road Arizona
• 57:30
  Speaker 1: Philly good offenses, but he struggled through those starts, and
• 57:34
  Speaker 1: then he did better. Bounce back nicely last time out.
• 57:37
  Speaker 1: Seven innings, three hits, allowed wonder and run alout against Pittsburgh,
• 57:40
  Speaker 1: eight strikeouts, two walks, and maybe he is coming back
• 57:42
  Speaker 1: into form. He gets another easier offense to face here,
• 57:46
  Speaker 1: so all things to keep in mind there. Colorado at
• 57:51
  Speaker 1: San Diego. San Diego actually lost yesterday, so the teams
• 57:54
  Speaker 1: have split the first two games of this year. Is
• 57:56
  Speaker 1: one in one. San Diego is still fighting for a
• 57:58
  Speaker 1: wildcard spot and to potentially try to win their division.
• 58:02
  Speaker 1: I think it's pretty definitive they're going to at least
• 58:04
  Speaker 1: get a wild card. Though. Their record is really good
• 58:08
  Speaker 1: and they are really good at home, and they're not
• 58:09
  Speaker 1: gonna take Colorado lightly. After losing to them yesterday, Colorado
• 58:14
  Speaker 1: is still trying. I mean, this is the type of
• 58:15
  Speaker 1: game they will show up for against a division foe
• 58:18
  Speaker 1: where they can try to kind of spoil their season
• 58:20
  Speaker 1: a little bit. They can't really spoil their season, but
• 58:22
  Speaker 1: at least try to just deal them a loss or
• 58:26
  Speaker 1: two in there. San Diego has the way better bullpen
• 58:28
  Speaker 1: of the two, and they only use two relief pitchers yesterday,
• 58:31
  Speaker 1: so definitely a huge bullpen edge for San Diego. Colorado
• 58:34
  Speaker 1: has used more of their bullpend recently as well. San
• 58:37
  Speaker 1: Diego has the better offense too, even though their offense
• 58:39
  Speaker 1: isn't very good. We have two pretty bad offenses here
• 58:42
  Speaker 1: for the most part. Colorado's really bad, especially on the road,
• 58:45
  Speaker 1: though it is a picture friendly park here. Keeping in mind,
• 58:49
  Speaker 1: Bradley Blaylock is returning to the Rockies rotation after he
• 58:53
  Speaker 1: was sent back down to the Miners. He is I
• 58:54
  Speaker 1: believe this is his rookie season. He was not very
• 58:57
  Speaker 1: good eight point six two ERA one point point seven
• 59:00
  Speaker 1: to nine whip really battle though he's significantly better on
• 59:03
  Speaker 1: the road four point three seventy ARRA on the road
• 59:06
  Speaker 1: course field, man, it just wrecks these pictures like they
• 59:09
  Speaker 1: try to find pictures that that would do better in
• 59:11
  Speaker 1: course field, but that's not working out man. So yeah,
• 59:14
  Speaker 1: Blaylock is at least a serviceable picture on the road.
• 59:18
  Speaker 1: Before he got sent down to the Miners, he was
• 59:21
  Speaker 1: really bad in three straight starts, had a twelve point
• 59:23
  Speaker 1: two one RA over three starts in August, six strikeouts
• 59:27
  Speaker 1: and eleven walks. Just absolutely terrible, way too many walks,
• 59:30
  Speaker 1: give up five home runs, two of those are eight
• 59:33
  Speaker 1: course field. Two of the games are against Arizona. But
• 59:36
  Speaker 1: I'm not ready to trust Blaylock here man. He's just
• 59:39
  Speaker 1: not very good at this point. So against San Diego's
• 59:43
  Speaker 1: numbers are pretty pretty awful and twenty nine at bats
• 59:46
  Speaker 1: one strikeout, three walks, two of them runs allowed, four
• 59:49
  Speaker 1: forty eight batting ours ony twenty four ohps Cronin worthed cheets.
• 59:54
  Speaker 1: With the home runs there against him, I'm not ready
• 59:57
  Speaker 1: to trust Blaylock at all here man. So all that
• 1:00:00
  Speaker 1: to keep in mind, I believe he faced San Diego
• 1:00:02
  Speaker 1: this year. I faced them once. That was his worst start,
• 1:00:05
  Speaker 1: probably ever. Especially I think he's a rookie, right, so,
• 1:00:10
  Speaker 1: oh no, he's not. He was actually on Milwaukee for
• 1:00:12
  Speaker 1: a bit last year, and then he made six starts
• 1:00:13
  Speaker 1: for Colorado last year, though I don't think that qualifies
• 1:00:16
  Speaker 1: as a rookie season. But his worst start of this
• 1:00:18
  Speaker 1: season was against San Diego. He have a twelve earned
• 1:00:21
  Speaker 1: runs and three and two thirds. It was a coarse field,
• 1:00:24
  Speaker 1: but he got obliterated in that start. So even though
• 1:00:28
  Speaker 1: he'll do better than that this time out, that still
• 1:00:31
  Speaker 1: doesn't mean he's going to do remotely well here. He's
• 1:00:34
  Speaker 1: going up against Dylan c who is obviously the better
• 1:00:36
  Speaker 1: pitcher of the two. He's kind of struggling this year though, mean,
• 1:00:39
  Speaker 1: he's been a lot worse this season than he has
• 1:00:41
  Speaker 1: been in the past. Four point seven to one, one
• 1:00:44
  Speaker 1: point three to four whip. He's really inefficient with his
• 1:00:47
  Speaker 1: pitches this year. He strikes out a lot of guys.
• 1:00:49
  Speaker 1: Somebody walks a ton of guys. There's something off with him. Man.
• 1:00:53
  Speaker 1: He is better run home at least three point eight
• 1:00:55
  Speaker 1: to ninety r right at home. He's given up two
• 1:00:57
  Speaker 1: or fewer runs in the last two outings, one against Colorado.
• 1:01:01
  Speaker 1: So he actually just faced Colorado in course field and
• 1:01:03
  Speaker 1: he held them to woner and run in five innings.
• 1:01:05
  Speaker 1: That's not bad. Does have a three ra this month
• 1:01:08
  Speaker 1: twelve to four strike out walk ratio. Didn't even make
• 1:01:11
  Speaker 1: it five innings against Baltimore though, threw way too many
• 1:01:13
  Speaker 1: pitches there, so old things to keep in mind there.
• 1:01:17
  Speaker 1: But he does too well against Colorado typically in fifty
• 1:01:19
  Speaker 1: six at bats, twenty five to seven strike out walk ratio,
• 1:01:22
  Speaker 1: one seventy nine batting average allowed five to twenty oh ps,
• 1:01:25
  Speaker 1: So even though they did just see him, I don't
• 1:01:28
  Speaker 1: really expect him to actually do bad here. The price
• 1:01:31
  Speaker 1: is like way too high in San Diego, though, down
• 1:01:33
  Speaker 1: from minus three point fifty to minus three forty eighty
• 1:01:36
  Speaker 1: two percent of tickets ninety seve percent of the cash
• 1:01:38
  Speaker 1: on them, I don't think there's any way you can
• 1:01:39
  Speaker 1: lay a price like that on them. I think if
• 1:01:42
  Speaker 1: you were going to do this, I would probably actually
• 1:01:45
  Speaker 1: lean to San Diego going over their team total, even
• 1:01:47
  Speaker 1: though the total went down from eight and a half
• 1:01:49
  Speaker 1: to eight fifty percent of tickets on the under nicee
• 1:01:51
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash in the unders. The money is
• 1:01:53
  Speaker 1: coming in on the under. If you wanted to go
• 1:01:54
  Speaker 1: the other way and go Colorado under their team total,
• 1:01:57
  Speaker 1: you could. I mean, san Diego's bullpen is good, see
• 1:02:00
  Speaker 1: should come in and cease their bats well enough to
• 1:02:04
  Speaker 1: get that. But it seems a little bit dicey to me.
• 1:02:06
  Speaker 1: So I think San Diego could score even in this
• 1:02:09
  Speaker 1: park against this Colorado pitching set up here. So that's
• 1:02:13
  Speaker 1: maybe the way that I would look in that game.
• 1:02:15
  Speaker 1: Dodgers at San Francisco. San Francisco got the win yesterday
• 1:02:18
  Speaker 1: justin Verlander out He didn't really outpitch Yamamoto yesterday necessarily,
• 1:02:23
  Speaker 1: but he got the win. Both starting pitchers, I think
• 1:02:25
  Speaker 1: going allowed one run in the game, and I think
• 1:02:28
  Speaker 1: it was actually the bullpends. That will makes sense because
• 1:02:31
  Speaker 1: the Dodgers' bullpen is not very good. San Francisco has
• 1:02:34
  Speaker 1: the much better bullpend here, and I think that's what
• 1:02:35
  Speaker 1: happened with the win there. It was a grand slam
• 1:02:38
  Speaker 1: that won the game for San Francisco. Late in the game.
• 1:02:40
  Speaker 1: It looks like from Patrick Bailey so Verlander, he walked
• 1:02:46
  Speaker 1: four guys in the game, but he was fairly solid.
• 1:02:48
  Speaker 1: He dueled Yamamoto in the game. San Francisco, they're playing
• 1:02:53
  Speaker 1: like they're still trying to stay alive. Man. They're definitely
• 1:02:55
  Speaker 1: pretty hot right now. They're still technically in the wildcard race,
• 1:02:58
  Speaker 1: and I guess technically still in the Vision race. But
• 1:03:02
  Speaker 1: they just punched the Dodgers in the mouth. So the
• 1:03:04
  Speaker 1: Dodgers are probably gonna come into this pissed off here.
• 1:03:06
  Speaker 1: Dodgers obviously have the way better offense, so San Francisco
• 1:03:09
  Speaker 1: is a huge bullpen eager. The Dodgers have a huge
• 1:03:12
  Speaker 1: offensive edge as far as the bullpend usage. San Francisco
• 1:03:15
  Speaker 1: on these three relief pitchers yesterday, one of them, Piguero,
• 1:03:19
  Speaker 1: only through three pitches so he could pitch again here.
• 1:03:21
  Speaker 1: Dodgers have had pretty light usage over the last couple
• 1:03:23
  Speaker 1: of days too, though, but their bullpen is just not
• 1:03:26
  Speaker 1: that good. The starting pitching is interesting here. It's pretty
• 1:03:31
  Speaker 1: good pitching matchup on the surface. Clayton Kershaw pitching for
• 1:03:33
  Speaker 1: the Dodgers, even though he's not what he once was.
• 1:03:36
  Speaker 1: He doesn't get as many strikeouts anymore, but he's still
• 1:03:38
  Speaker 1: having a pretty solid season three point two seven e RA,
• 1:03:41
  Speaker 1: one point one six whip. He's better on the road
• 1:03:44
  Speaker 1: three point one eight ERA on the road this month,
• 1:03:47
  Speaker 1: he hasn't been as good and two starts five point
• 1:03:50
  Speaker 1: zero sixty R and eleven to five strike a walk ratio,
• 1:03:53
  Speaker 1: but that was mostly because he had one pretty bad
• 1:03:55
  Speaker 1: start against Pittsburgh, which is hard to explain. But he
• 1:03:58
  Speaker 1: bounce back a bit with a against Baltimore. He's not
• 1:04:01
  Speaker 1: going that deep though. He's gone five to two thirds
• 1:04:03
  Speaker 1: or fewer in his last four starts. Had a really
• 1:04:06
  Speaker 1: good month the prior month in August, even though he
• 1:04:08
  Speaker 1: still wasn't striking out a lot of guys. He wasn't
• 1:04:10
  Speaker 1: walking a lot of guys. He allowed very few runs.
• 1:04:13
  Speaker 1: He's still pretty much there. I mean overall, he's still
• 1:04:15
  Speaker 1: allowed three or fewer earned runs and all but one
• 1:04:18
  Speaker 1: start going all the way back through the beginning of August,
• 1:04:20
  Speaker 1: so he is still basically in decent form. I would
• 1:04:25
  Speaker 1: say for the most part. This is a picture friendly park.
• 1:04:27
  Speaker 1: San Francisco's offense isn't that good. One hundred and seventeen
• 1:04:30
  Speaker 1: of bats for him against San Francisco has a thirty
• 1:04:32
  Speaker 1: five to eight strike a walk ratio, one eighty eight
• 1:04:34
  Speaker 1: batting average allowed four to ninety six ohps. So Kershaw
• 1:04:38
  Speaker 1: does well against San Francisco typically that we do have
• 1:04:40
  Speaker 1: to remember to keep in mind that he's not as
• 1:04:42
  Speaker 1: good as he was for the most part when those
• 1:04:45
  Speaker 1: stats were collected, so he might be a little bit
• 1:04:47
  Speaker 1: worse than that. He's going up against Logan Webb, who
• 1:04:51
  Speaker 1: is probably gonna be able to outlast Kershaw on this game.
• 1:04:53
  Speaker 1: Like the one thing that he does is he goes
• 1:04:55
  Speaker 1: deep into games, and he is a lot younger than
• 1:04:59
  Speaker 1: Kershaw's three point one two ERA one point two to
• 1:05:01
  Speaker 1: two whip on the season, good stuff. He's good at
• 1:05:04
  Speaker 1: home two point seven to seven home e ram. He's
• 1:05:08
  Speaker 1: been pretty good for a while now. He's allowed two
• 1:05:11
  Speaker 1: or fewer and runs and all but two starts going
• 1:05:12
  Speaker 1: all the way back through his last start of July,
• 1:05:15
  Speaker 1: hasn't allowed more than four and runs in any of
• 1:05:17
  Speaker 1: the outings and allowed three or fewer in all but
• 1:05:21
  Speaker 1: one of those outings. His team has won five straight
• 1:05:23
  Speaker 1: starts of his he's picked up wins and four of them,
• 1:05:26
  Speaker 1: so he's in pretty good form right now for the
• 1:05:28
  Speaker 1: most part. Two point four five ERA and two starts
• 1:05:31
  Speaker 1: this month with a fourteen to four strike out walk ratio.
• 1:05:34
  Speaker 1: That's all pretty solid. Numbers against the Dodgers are not
• 1:05:37
  Speaker 1: very good, though they have a lot of familiarity with him.
• 1:05:40
  Speaker 1: Two hundred and forty four at bats, forty five to
• 1:05:42
  Speaker 1: twenty seven strike out walk ratio that is way too
• 1:05:44
  Speaker 1: many walks three zero seven batting average eight to seventy
• 1:05:47
  Speaker 1: five ops, so he doesn't do that well against the Dodgers.
• 1:05:51
  Speaker 1: Bets and months see both of multiple home runs off
• 1:05:54
  Speaker 1: him too, so it's a little bit iffy on the service.
• 1:05:57
  Speaker 1: It looks like it's an under type of game here
• 1:05:59
  Speaker 1: in a pitch friendly park, But I worry about those numbers, Man,
• 1:06:02
  Speaker 1: I worry the Kershaw is not gonna last as long
• 1:06:04
  Speaker 1: as the game in Web's numbers against the Dodgers are
• 1:06:06
  Speaker 1: not that good. But we do see money coming in
• 1:06:09
  Speaker 1: on the under. It's down from seven and a half
• 1:06:10
  Speaker 1: juice to the over to seven and a half. Here
• 1:06:13
  Speaker 1: we have fifty percent of tickets on the under and
• 1:06:15
  Speaker 1: sixty five percent of the cash on the under. We'll
• 1:06:18
  Speaker 1: see what happens. Man, I would hesitate to want to
• 1:06:20
  Speaker 1: do that. And the money is coming in on San
• 1:06:22
  Speaker 1: Francisco Dodgers down for minus one to sixteen to minutus
• 1:06:25
  Speaker 1: one oh six. I think the thought is kind of
• 1:06:26
  Speaker 1: that just San Francisco, there might be some value getting them.
• 1:06:31
  Speaker 1: You're not usually gonna get them as a home underdog
• 1:06:33
  Speaker 1: with Web on the mound. So I think the thought
• 1:06:35
  Speaker 1: is that maybe you're just paying too much of a
• 1:06:37
  Speaker 1: price for the Dodgers with Kershaw on the mound. It's
• 1:06:39
  Speaker 1: about the name Kershaw, not really what he is now
• 1:06:42
  Speaker 1: though he is still solid at least this year. But
• 1:06:44
  Speaker 1: fifty eight percent of tickets on the Dodgers, seventy four
• 1:06:47
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash coming in on the Giants. So
• 1:06:49
  Speaker 1: do with that information what you will the money is
• 1:06:51
  Speaker 1: coming in on the Giants and the under, I'm not
• 1:06:54
  Speaker 1: quite sure that I can get there with it man,
• 1:06:57
  Speaker 1: with what we just saw with the starting pitching in
• 1:06:59
  Speaker 1: not trusting the Rogers bullpen either, but otherwise on the
• 1:07:03
  Speaker 1: service looked like it might be an under or first
• 1:07:05
  Speaker 1: five inning under. But I worry about Web's matchup numbers
• 1:07:09
  Speaker 1: as well. Anaheim at Seattle. Seattle, They're still in a
• 1:07:13
  Speaker 1: tie atop the Al West. This is not good for
• 1:07:16
  Speaker 1: me as a Red Sox fan, because we got multiple
• 1:07:19
  Speaker 1: wildcard teams here, multiple teams batting for wildcard spots here.
• 1:07:23
  Speaker 1: Don't like that. Seattle's on a hot streak right now.
• 1:07:25
  Speaker 1: They've won seven games in a row. They bolstered their
• 1:07:28
  Speaker 1: offense at the trade deadline, they have the better offense
• 1:07:32
  Speaker 1: over Anaheim, Man, and they have the better bullpen, so
• 1:07:35
  Speaker 1: Seattle has definitely some edges here. They've already won the
• 1:07:37
  Speaker 1: first two games of this series, winning two to one yesterday. Again,
• 1:07:42
  Speaker 1: Anaeims bullpen is not good, but they're pretty at least
• 1:07:45
  Speaker 1: rested right now because they use one relief pitcher yesterday,
• 1:07:48
  Speaker 1: so they at least have a lot of bullpen arms available.
• 1:07:51
  Speaker 1: Seattle's actually had more usage because they used three guys yesterday.
• 1:07:55
  Speaker 1: Although Seattle still has the better bullpen, Anaheims is just
• 1:07:57
  Speaker 1: really bad. Starting pitching Madge was interesting. Mitch Farris is
• 1:08:02
  Speaker 1: pitching for Anaheim. He is a rookie. He's only made
• 1:08:05
  Speaker 1: two starts in his career. Anaheim won both of those games.
• 1:08:09
  Speaker 1: He has a two point four to five ERA point
• 1:08:11
  Speaker 1: a two whip over that spam. He was pretty solid.
• 1:08:14
  Speaker 1: I mean he went five minutes, he gave him one
• 1:08:16
  Speaker 1: earn run at Kansas City. I mean, I know they're
• 1:08:18
  Speaker 1: not a very good offense, so that was a good
• 1:08:19
  Speaker 1: start for him. And then followed that up with another
• 1:08:21
  Speaker 1: pretty good start against the A's so have a much
• 1:08:24
  Speaker 1: better lineup. He went six innings, allowed two earned runs,
• 1:08:27
  Speaker 1: both on solo homers. Wasn't at the a Stadium though
• 1:08:30
  Speaker 1: it was at home. Seven to three, strike a walk.
• 1:08:32
  Speaker 1: RASO overall is not great, but he looks okay. I
• 1:08:35
  Speaker 1: never really handicapped him because I don't think I realized
• 1:08:38
  Speaker 1: that he was making his major league debut, so I
• 1:08:40
  Speaker 1: don't think I ever looked at his scouting report. But
• 1:08:42
  Speaker 1: I'm just looking at his numbers here and he's proven
• 1:08:45
  Speaker 1: that he could pitch at the major league level. Man,
• 1:08:46
  Speaker 1: He's been good so far in his first two starts,
• 1:08:49
  Speaker 1: and of course Seattle's never seen him before and it
• 1:08:51
  Speaker 1: is a pitcher friendly park, so he might pitch well here.
• 1:08:54
  Speaker 1: He's going up against Brian wu who's quite good for
• 1:08:57
  Speaker 1: the Mariners. Three point oh two ERA, a point nine
• 1:09:01
  Speaker 1: to five WHIP, very low whip. He's really good at
• 1:09:03
  Speaker 1: home to two point four e RA at home. He's
• 1:09:07
  Speaker 1: just continuing to pitch really well, three or fewer runs
• 1:09:09
  Speaker 1: allowed in every start going all the way back through
• 1:09:11
  Speaker 1: the beginning of August. He remains in good form. Even
• 1:09:14
  Speaker 1: though he doesn't have a four point nine ERA this month.
• 1:09:17
  Speaker 1: Still he allowed three and two in runs in those starts,
• 1:09:20
  Speaker 1: and the worst of the two is at Tampa Bay's Stadium,
• 1:09:23
  Speaker 1: which is a very hitter friendly spring training stadium, So
• 1:09:26
  Speaker 1: I'm not gonna dock him for that twelve to three
• 1:09:29
  Speaker 1: strike a walk ratio this month. That is good. Wu
• 1:09:32
  Speaker 1: is good. We know this. He's good against Anaheim two
• 1:09:34
  Speaker 1: and fifty three at bats, twelve strikeouts, two walks, has
• 1:09:38
  Speaker 1: allowed two on runs, but they're both Adele. But Adele
• 1:09:40
  Speaker 1: was dealing with Verdigo, so I don't even know what
• 1:09:42
  Speaker 1: the deals with adel He didn't play last night. I
• 1:09:47
  Speaker 1: don't Yeah, I don't know what he did play the
• 1:09:49
  Speaker 1: night before that. He only had one at bat though.
• 1:09:51
  Speaker 1: It looks like I don't know so Adele, we don't
• 1:09:52
  Speaker 1: even know if he's gonna be in the lineup, and
• 1:09:54
  Speaker 1: he's the one guy in their lineup who actually does
• 1:09:56
  Speaker 1: any damage against If you take him out of the lineup,
• 1:10:00
  Speaker 1: it's ridiculous. Anaheim only has four other hits against uh Wu,
• 1:10:04
  Speaker 1: and none of them are extra base hits. So Wu
• 1:10:07
  Speaker 1: could pretty much run through this lineup for the most part,
• 1:10:10
  Speaker 1: and even with Adele counted a one fifty one batting
• 1:10:13
  Speaker 1: average of four to sixty five ohps overall is what
• 1:10:16
  Speaker 1: Wu is allowed to Anaheim. So I do think Wu
• 1:10:18
  Speaker 1: will pitch well here. Uh you're getting tacks for Seattle.
• 1:10:22
  Speaker 1: They're rough for minus two ten to minus two eighteen
• 1:10:25
  Speaker 1: eighty one percent of tickets ninety eight percent of the
• 1:10:26
  Speaker 1: cash coming in Seattle. I wouldn't really disagree with Seattle.
• 1:10:30
  Speaker 1: I mean, they obviously have the better bullpend. They do
• 1:10:33
  Speaker 1: have probably the better starring pitcher here. I mean, I
• 1:10:35
  Speaker 1: think definitely they do. Faris doesn't look like he's too
• 1:10:38
  Speaker 1: bad in his own right though, so I definitely see
• 1:10:40
  Speaker 1: arguments for a first five inning under in this game
• 1:10:42
  Speaker 1: as well. The total is sitting at seven and a half,
• 1:10:44
  Speaker 1: sixty two percent tickets on the under, sixty nine percent
• 1:10:47
  Speaker 1: of the cash on the over, though money looks think
• 1:10:50
  Speaker 1: it's coming into the over. I mean, I could see
• 1:10:52
  Speaker 1: WU just coming through and just ripping through Anaheim though,
• 1:10:55
  Speaker 1: so I mean, I don't know. I could see Anaheim
• 1:10:58
  Speaker 1: under their team totals, maybe a player here as well,
• 1:11:02
  Speaker 1: or I could see maybe under first five innings because
• 1:11:04
  Speaker 1: you want maybe a void Anaheim's bullpen here. I could
• 1:11:08
  Speaker 1: see both starting pitchers getting locked into a duel there,
• 1:11:11
  Speaker 1: and then Cincinnati at the A's. Both these teams playing
• 1:11:13
  Speaker 1: hitter friendly park, So man, this is a hitter friendly
• 1:11:16
  Speaker 1: park for the A's while playing in this awful spring
• 1:11:19
  Speaker 1: training seaum. The A's won yesterday three to nothing, a
• 1:11:21
  Speaker 1: low scoring game. Strange. These teams both don't really have
• 1:11:26
  Speaker 1: very good bullpens. The A's is the worst of the two.
• 1:11:28
  Speaker 1: Their bullpens still is pretty atrocious. Cincinnati's is mediocre. The
• 1:11:32
  Speaker 1: A's have the better offense, Cincinnati's offense is mediocre. I
• 1:11:36
  Speaker 1: would say, Cincinnati only is one relief pitcher in the
• 1:11:41
  Speaker 1: last two days, I think had very light bullpen usage,
• 1:11:44
  Speaker 1: so their bullpen is at least in good rest shape here.
• 1:11:47
  Speaker 1: The A is not so much the US four relief
• 1:11:49
  Speaker 1: pitchers yesterday. So Cincinnati does have a bullpen edge here,
• 1:11:53
  Speaker 1: and I think they have a starting pitching the edge
• 1:11:55
  Speaker 1: with Hunter Green on them mount he's been really good
• 1:11:57
  Speaker 1: for them two point five ninety R point nine whip.
• 1:12:00
  Speaker 1: He did come back from injury not too long ago.
• 1:12:03
  Speaker 1: Green is a bit worse on the road though, three
• 1:12:05
  Speaker 1: point eight to nine Roady Ira. But since he's come
• 1:12:08
  Speaker 1: back from injury, he's been good, which was in mid August.
• 1:12:11
  Speaker 1: He's allowed three or four earned runs in every single start.
• 1:12:14
  Speaker 1: He's got at least five innings in every single start,
• 1:12:16
  Speaker 1: and the only one where he only went five was
• 1:12:18
  Speaker 1: against the Dodgers, and that was his one that was
• 1:12:21
  Speaker 1: like the worst start of his since coming back. So
• 1:12:24
  Speaker 1: he is pitching well. I mean, that's a good lineup
• 1:12:26
  Speaker 1: the Dodgers. He has a good strikeout rate. He's had
• 1:12:29
  Speaker 1: double digit strikeouts in two of these outings this month.
• 1:12:32
  Speaker 1: He has a one point three to five ERA nineteen
• 1:12:35
  Speaker 1: to three strike out walk ratio against Toronto and the Mets,
• 1:12:37
  Speaker 1: so though both those starts are at home. But he's
• 1:12:40
  Speaker 1: pretty much dominating right now, so he is in form
• 1:12:42
  Speaker 1: for sure. He allowed very few hits in those outings
• 1:12:45
  Speaker 1: two against solid lineups. The A's are a solid lineup
• 1:12:48
  Speaker 1: two and they don't have much experience against Green at all.
• 1:12:51
  Speaker 1: They're zero for seven against him, four strikeouts in one walk.
• 1:12:55
  Speaker 1: So he looks like he should be pitching well in
• 1:12:59
  Speaker 1: this game too, man, even though it is a weird
• 1:13:00
  Speaker 1: stadium to pitch in. So I don't quite want to
• 1:13:03
  Speaker 1: give this out as a play, but I do like
• 1:13:04
  Speaker 1: Cincinnati here. I think they have a starting pitching edge
• 1:13:06
  Speaker 1: and a bullpen edge here. I think Green definitely could
• 1:13:10
  Speaker 1: come in and pitch well, and that unfamiliarity aspect of it.
• 1:13:13
  Speaker 1: He could definitely come in and mow down some of
• 1:13:15
  Speaker 1: these as hitters. And his strikeout rate is so high
• 1:13:18
  Speaker 1: that might kind of counteract how bad the stadium is.
• 1:13:21
  Speaker 1: And the fact that he's used to pitching in a
• 1:13:23
  Speaker 1: hitter friendly park might help him too. He's going up
• 1:13:25
  Speaker 1: against Louis Severreen. I mean, he's having a season that's
• 1:13:30
  Speaker 1: been kind of all over the place, but mostly generally
• 1:13:33
  Speaker 1: he's he's good on the road and bad at home.
• 1:13:36
  Speaker 1: So he is pitching at home here. He's got a
• 1:13:37
  Speaker 1: four point six to seven ERA, one point three to
• 1:13:40
  Speaker 1: one WHIP. As I said, pitching in this stadium has
• 1:13:43
  Speaker 1: been has been difficult for him, six point three four
• 1:13:46
  Speaker 1: ERA at home, so he's not been good at home.
• 1:13:48
  Speaker 1: The last time he pitched it home, he did okay
• 1:13:50
  Speaker 1: against Seattle, give up one earned run here, so that
• 1:13:53
  Speaker 1: was a good sign for him. But other than that,
• 1:13:55
  Speaker 1: he's been really really a train wreck, so that looks
• 1:13:57
  Speaker 1: like it was maybe more of an outlier. He's been
• 1:13:59
  Speaker 1: really bad at home. He looks like he's in good
• 1:14:01
  Speaker 1: form recently, only pitch once in August, then he got hurt,
• 1:14:06
  Speaker 1: and then he came back this month and he has
• 1:14:08
  Speaker 1: a two point seventy r RA since then eleven to
• 1:14:10
  Speaker 1: two strikeout walk ratio. But both starts are on the road,
• 1:14:14
  Speaker 1: So again, somebody keep in mind there he's much much
• 1:14:18
  Speaker 1: worse in this stadium. But he is really good against
• 1:14:20
  Speaker 1: the Reds in his career forty seven at bat's, twenty strikeout,
• 1:14:24
  Speaker 1: six walks, one seventy batting average of five nineteen oh ps.
• 1:14:28
  Speaker 1: So I hesitate to actually fade several reno if he
• 1:14:30
  Speaker 1: had bad numbers against the Reds, I think I would
• 1:14:32
  Speaker 1: probably just do it. I still lean to the Reds.
• 1:14:36
  Speaker 1: There is a reason why they were road favorite here,
• 1:14:38
  Speaker 1: even though the public might even kind of a tendency
• 1:14:41
  Speaker 1: to maybe look towards the A's Cincinnatis sitting at minus
• 1:14:44
  Speaker 1: one fifteen here eighty three percent, to take his ninety
• 1:14:46
  Speaker 1: three percent of the cash on them, So I mean,
• 1:14:49
  Speaker 1: I'm not gonna disagree with that. I like Hunter Green
• 1:14:51
  Speaker 1: a lot more than seven Reno, especially in this park,
• 1:14:54
  Speaker 1: even though we don't really know what he's gonna do
• 1:14:55
  Speaker 1: in this park or Green, but we know seven reno
• 1:14:58
  Speaker 1: is not good here, So lean to Cincinnati and that one.
• 1:15:01
  Speaker 1: Cincinnati does have more to play for, at least, even
• 1:15:03
  Speaker 1: though it looks like the public is kind of on
• 1:15:05
  Speaker 1: them too. Cincinnati, again, they're still trying to fight for
• 1:15:10
  Speaker 1: a wildcard spot and they're starting to fall out of it.
• 1:15:13
  Speaker 1: A is just kind of playing out the stretch here,
• 1:15:14
  Speaker 1: and of course Seattle has way more to play for
• 1:15:16
  Speaker 1: than Anaheim. By the way, Seattle fighting for the division,
• 1:15:19
  Speaker 1: they're fighting for a wildcard whatever, and Anaheim is out
• 1:15:23
  Speaker 1: of it and not a very good team. So keeping
• 1:15:26
  Speaker 1: all that in mind, let's go to the best bets
• 1:15:27
  Speaker 1: and then I will get out of here. We're gonna
• 1:15:30
  Speaker 1: do two plays here. Maybe they're a little bit questionable,
• 1:15:34
  Speaker 1: but I don't know. But we're gonna we'll get this
• 1:15:37
  Speaker 1: wrong though, because I'm gonna go I'm gonna take a
• 1:15:39
  Speaker 1: different approach to what I have been doing, and I'm
• 1:15:41
  Speaker 1: gonna go over eight and a half in Rangers Mets
• 1:15:45
  Speaker 1: this time. I don't know about the market read on
• 1:15:48
  Speaker 1: this one, man, so I'm doing something that maybe you
• 1:15:50
  Speaker 1: wouldn't expect. But we do have ninety percent to take
• 1:15:52
  Speaker 1: his ninety seven percent of cash on the over. Totals
• 1:15:55
  Speaker 1: slightly dropped from nine juice to the under very heavily
• 1:15:58
  Speaker 1: to eight and a half juice to the over very heavily.
• 1:15:59
  Speaker 1: But I don't think that's a huge move, even though
• 1:16:02
  Speaker 1: the nine is a key number. I mean, depending on
• 1:16:04
  Speaker 1: what book they're getting that from, that's a pretty minor move.
• 1:16:07
  Speaker 1: I know the public's on the over here, but I
• 1:16:10
  Speaker 1: think the money is actually coming down the over here,
• 1:16:12
  Speaker 1: and I like the over here with Texas and the
• 1:16:13
  Speaker 1: Mets man, even though I know Texas Bullpen is good
• 1:16:16
  Speaker 1: I know Texas offense is not that good, but Texas
• 1:16:19
  Speaker 1: offense is a little bit better away from home, so
• 1:16:22
  Speaker 1: that's gonna help us here. The Rangers bullpend, yes, I know,
• 1:16:24
  Speaker 1: it's very well rested, but the Mets offense is good,
• 1:16:27
  Speaker 1: so that's gonna help us out here too. The Mets
• 1:16:29
  Speaker 1: have the better offense. Both of these teams are gonna
• 1:16:31
  Speaker 1: show up, which you know, does kind of lend us
• 1:16:34
  Speaker 1: up more towards an under sometimes because you know the
• 1:16:37
  Speaker 1: fielding is gonna be focused, the pitching is gonna be focused.
• 1:16:40
  Speaker 1: Texas is still trying to fight for potentially their division
• 1:16:43
  Speaker 1: or for a wildcard. The Mets are trying to make
• 1:16:46
  Speaker 1: sure they may maintain a wildcard spot because they're falling
• 1:16:48
  Speaker 1: apart man, which might motivate the Reds a little bit more.
• 1:16:52
  Speaker 1: Mets bullpen has seen a lot of usage, which is
• 1:16:54
  Speaker 1: also part of this handicap. So their bullpen is okay,
• 1:16:57
  Speaker 1: they're the worst of the two, but man, their bullpen's
• 1:16:59
  Speaker 1: seen a lot of used to hear, so Texas does
• 1:17:01
  Speaker 1: have a bullpen edge coming into this one. But their
• 1:17:04
  Speaker 1: bullpen might come into the game a little bit early
• 1:17:06
  Speaker 1: because they got Patrick Korban on the mount. So part
• 1:17:09
  Speaker 1: of this handicap is we're gonna fade Patrick KORbin. He's
• 1:17:12
  Speaker 1: starting to turn into the Coorbin that we remember from
• 1:17:15
  Speaker 1: the last few years, which is not good. Four point
• 1:17:18
  Speaker 1: three sixty RA, one point three to whip. I think
• 1:17:20
  Speaker 1: his early season numbers are kind of an outlier. Man.
• 1:17:24
  Speaker 1: I don't think that that was the real Corbin. He's
• 1:17:26
  Speaker 1: not that good. He puts too many men on base,
• 1:17:28
  Speaker 1: and he's particularly bad on the road. Five point sixty
• 1:17:31
  Speaker 1: three ROADYRA. That's bad. This month, he hasn't been that great.
• 1:17:35
  Speaker 1: Four point seven to sixty RL, though ten to two
• 1:17:37
  Speaker 1: strike a walk ratio is good. Did face Arizona, which
• 1:17:40
  Speaker 1: is the start where he got lit up, so two
• 1:17:43
  Speaker 1: of his last three starts have actually been good. But
• 1:17:45
  Speaker 1: against Anaheim and Houston, those are okay offenses with the
• 1:17:49
  Speaker 1: Mets are much better offense. I'm not gonna consider him
• 1:17:52
  Speaker 1: to be in great form here, and the Mets do
• 1:17:54
  Speaker 1: hit him well, and they have a ton of experience
• 1:17:56
  Speaker 1: against him. Two hundred and fifty five at bats, fifty
• 1:17:59
  Speaker 1: five to twenty two strike out walker, He's you have
• 1:18:01
  Speaker 1: lots of twos and fives. That's not a good ratio.
• 1:18:04
  Speaker 1: Two ninety eight batting average a lot in eight forty
• 1:18:06
  Speaker 1: seven oh ps. So he does not do well against
• 1:18:09
  Speaker 1: the Mets. They have a lot of experience against him.
• 1:18:12
  Speaker 1: They have three different battles that have multiple home runs
• 1:18:14
  Speaker 1: against him too, So I think he's gonna struggle here.
• 1:18:17
  Speaker 1: He's going up against Brandon Sprote, who is a rookie.
• 1:18:21
  Speaker 1: I talked about him going into his first start, and
• 1:18:23
  Speaker 1: I faded him with the Reds. He did better than
• 1:18:25
  Speaker 1: I thought he would, but he kind of escaped in
• 1:18:28
  Speaker 1: that game. He went six innings at the Red Stadium.
• 1:18:30
  Speaker 1: It is a difficult part to pitch him, but the
• 1:18:32
  Speaker 1: hits in the home runs weren't the problem. He gave
• 1:18:34
  Speaker 1: up three on runs, but he was wild. He walked
• 1:18:36
  Speaker 1: four guys. Maybe you could argue that he was nervous
• 1:18:39
  Speaker 1: in his first major league start. Struck out seven, which
• 1:18:42
  Speaker 1: is a decent sign. But I'm still gonna fade Sprout
• 1:18:45
  Speaker 1: here as part of this over as well. And again
• 1:18:48
  Speaker 1: I don't like the state the Mets bullpen is in either.
• 1:18:50
  Speaker 1: So yes, I know he's facing a weak Texas lineup.
• 1:18:52
  Speaker 1: I know he's unfamiliar to them, but I looked at
• 1:18:54
  Speaker 1: Sprout's numbers part of the handicap that I had, which
• 1:18:57
  Speaker 1: was a close win for me with the Reds there,
• 1:18:59
  Speaker 1: but he was not good in Triple A man, Sprout,
• 1:19:02
  Speaker 1: his numbers are not very impressive there, so I just
• 1:19:05
  Speaker 1: don't know. Man, it looked like some of his pitches
• 1:19:07
  Speaker 1: are still kind of a work in progress that we
• 1:19:09
  Speaker 1: will see him and I could be wrong sometimes these
• 1:19:12
  Speaker 1: young pitchers, especially when they have the unfamiliarity, I to
• 1:19:14
  Speaker 1: do a little bit better. But this game we're gonna
• 1:19:16
  Speaker 1: go over. And these teams have also been playing a
• 1:19:19
  Speaker 1: lot of overs recently, so the offenses are in good form,
• 1:19:22
  Speaker 1: decent form right now. Texas has played three overs in
• 1:19:25
  Speaker 1: a row and the Mets have been involved in four
• 1:19:30
  Speaker 1: overs in a row, and then they've been on the
• 1:19:32
  Speaker 1: losing end of it, so I know they haven't been
• 1:19:33
  Speaker 1: the team that's been scoring, but they've been allowing a
• 1:19:35
  Speaker 1: lot of runs. So that's still the part of the
• 1:19:38
  Speaker 1: equation as well. So it'll be over in that one.
• 1:19:42
  Speaker 1: And then to finish it off, we're gonna have a
• 1:19:43
  Speaker 1: split bet on Cleveland because they're favored by too much,
• 1:19:47
  Speaker 1: but I think it's almost justified here. But we're gonna
• 1:19:50
  Speaker 1: try to make our own minus one run line. If
• 1:19:52
  Speaker 1: you want to go find a minus one run line,
• 1:19:54
  Speaker 1: you could do that too. But doing the split bet,
• 1:19:56
  Speaker 1: I think is a little bit better because if they
• 1:19:58
  Speaker 1: win out right, you'll win a small amount on it.
• 1:20:01
  Speaker 1: If they win by one run exactly, you'll win a
• 1:20:03
  Speaker 1: small amount on it. And you can find multiple books, right,
• 1:20:06
  Speaker 1: you can play the money line at one book and
• 1:20:08
  Speaker 1: the run line at different books. You can get better
• 1:20:10
  Speaker 1: prices on them that way. So I've found minus one
• 1:20:13
  Speaker 1: and a half run line in Cleveland at plus money
• 1:20:15
  Speaker 1: plus one thirty five. The money line looks like it's
• 1:20:18
  Speaker 1: around minus one sixty five. Cleveland is a little bit public.
• 1:20:21
  Speaker 1: They've been hot, but we're gonna kind of jump on
• 1:20:24
  Speaker 1: that streak there. I mean, baseball can be streaked, even
• 1:20:28
  Speaker 1: though a lot of times I will not want to
• 1:20:29
  Speaker 1: go on a team that's been hot because sometimes they're
• 1:20:31
  Speaker 1: overrated or overvalued. Where's this game? But in this game,
• 1:20:35
  Speaker 1: I mean, I'm not quite so sure about that yet.
• 1:20:38
  Speaker 1: Hear it is, Cleveland's up for minus one fifty minus
• 1:20:40
  Speaker 1: one sixty. They are public ninety four percent of tickets,
• 1:20:43
  Speaker 1: ninety nine percent of the cash on them, So I'm
• 1:20:44
  Speaker 1: a little bit worried that we're joining the public here,
• 1:20:46
  Speaker 1: but I think it's the right way to go here. Man, Cleveland,
• 1:20:50
  Speaker 1: they actually still have something to play for it. They're
• 1:20:51
  Speaker 1: actually in the wildcard hunt, believe it or not, and
• 1:20:53
  Speaker 1: they're not completely out of their division either. They're playing
• 1:20:56
  Speaker 1: well and Tanner bib Be throwing a complete game to
• 1:21:00
  Speaker 1: it shut out yesterday, so he kind of bounced back
• 1:21:03
  Speaker 1: in a big way yesterday against the team that actually
• 1:21:05
  Speaker 1: they had decent numbers against him. Surprisingly, because the White
• 1:21:08
  Speaker 1: Sox offense is not good, the White Sox were playing better.
• 1:21:11
  Speaker 1: But I'm not sure that's gonna continue here, man, Cleveland.
• 1:21:15
  Speaker 1: They have a bit more to play for now, even
• 1:21:16
  Speaker 1: though the White Sox, Yeah, they could argue maybe we
• 1:21:18
  Speaker 1: want to spoil Cleveland's season, but Cleveland's just hot right
• 1:21:22
  Speaker 1: now too. Man. They've won seven of their last eight games.
• 1:21:26
  Speaker 1: I know they shut out the White Sox yesterdays to
• 1:21:27
  Speaker 1: the White Sox might be motivated try to bounce back
• 1:21:30
  Speaker 1: from that. But Cleveland saved their bullpen and they have
• 1:21:32
  Speaker 1: the significantly better at these two bullpens too. But Biby
• 1:21:36
  Speaker 1: pitched a complete game yesterday, so Cleveland's bullpen is completely arrested.
• 1:21:40
  Speaker 1: The White Sox didn't use a lot of their bullpen either.
• 1:21:42
  Speaker 1: They only used Steven Wilson, not the musician from Porcupine Tree,
• 1:21:46
  Speaker 1: but a different Stephen Wilson. Shout out there to the
• 1:21:49
  Speaker 1: proc Rock. I'm actually seeing Steven Wilson in a couple
• 1:21:51
  Speaker 1: of weeks. I have these tickets that I bought a
• 1:21:54
  Speaker 1: long long time ago. Man, I'm just gonna go. I mean,
• 1:21:56
  Speaker 1: I love Wilson, so I'm still gonna go to his show.
• 1:22:00
  Speaker 1: But yeah, I'm cle even they still have the better bullpen. Man.
• 1:22:04
  Speaker 1: Even though both bullpen's are rested, Cleveland is even more rested.
• 1:22:07
  Speaker 1: They have the better bullpen. They got the better starter
• 1:22:10
  Speaker 1: as well. And I mean, I do think the White
• 1:22:13
  Speaker 1: Socks have the better offense, but it's not significant. Both
• 1:22:16
  Speaker 1: these offense are bad. They're both in the bottom three offensively,
• 1:22:19
  Speaker 1: so it's debatable which one of these offenses even better.
• 1:22:22
  Speaker 1: Davis Martin is pitching for the White Sox. I know,
• 1:22:25
  Speaker 1: I worry a little bit about having a run line
• 1:22:28
  Speaker 1: component to our bet year because it is a matchup
• 1:22:31
  Speaker 1: where both teams might not score a lot, but the
• 1:22:33
  Speaker 1: money doesn't go. It's coming in on the over in
• 1:22:35
  Speaker 1: this game, so that might help us sixty one percent tickets,
• 1:22:37
  Speaker 1: eighty three percent of the cash on the over total
• 1:22:40
  Speaker 1: at eight here, so maybe it'll be a little bit
• 1:22:42
  Speaker 1: of a higher scoring game than we're used to it
• 1:22:45
  Speaker 1: these offenses, so that can help us maybe get the
• 1:22:47
  Speaker 1: run line portion of this year. Davis Martin for the
• 1:22:49
  Speaker 1: White Sox, he's been okay. Four point zero three ERA,
• 1:22:53
  Speaker 1: one point two eight whip. He's worse than the road,
• 1:22:55
  Speaker 1: so we're gonna play into his split here four point
• 1:22:58
  Speaker 1: four to eight roady R and the road. That's not good.
• 1:23:01
  Speaker 1: He hasn't been that good this month, even though he
• 1:23:03
  Speaker 1: has a three point nine to seventy RA seven to
• 1:23:06
  Speaker 1: six strike a walk ratios ugly. I mean, he's been
• 1:23:08
  Speaker 1: walking a lot of guys recently. Hasn't been a good
• 1:23:10
  Speaker 1: form really. I mean he's kind of keeping his team
• 1:23:12
  Speaker 1: in games, but other than he hasn't been that good.
• 1:23:15
  Speaker 1: Last time out against Cleveland, he was at home, he
• 1:23:17
  Speaker 1: allowed three ondred runs of five innings, had more walks
• 1:23:20
  Speaker 1: than strikeouts. That's not great for him. And overall against
• 1:23:23
  Speaker 1: Cleveland he's not very good. In thirty nine at bats
• 1:23:27
  Speaker 1: six to five strike a walk ratio, they've hit him
• 1:23:29
  Speaker 1: around three to zero, eight batting average, eight seventy four ohps,
• 1:23:32
  Speaker 1: a couple of home runs from Menzarto and Hedges, So
• 1:23:37
  Speaker 1: Martin has not been very good against him. Man, So
• 1:23:38
  Speaker 1: Cleveland can hit him. And we got Parker Messic pitching
• 1:23:42
  Speaker 1: for Cleveland, and he's a rookie who's been for the
• 1:23:45
  Speaker 1: most part, pitching pretty well. Man. He's got a one
• 1:23:47
  Speaker 1: point nine to three e RA. I know his whip
• 1:23:49
  Speaker 1: is a little bit too high, one point three to three.
• 1:23:52
  Speaker 1: We'll talk about that in a minutes, mostly because of
• 1:23:53
  Speaker 1: one bad start. He still is not allowed to run
• 1:23:55
  Speaker 1: at home. He has a zero ERRA at home, but
• 1:23:57
  Speaker 1: that was in one start, but it was it was
• 1:24:00
  Speaker 1: a good one, a seven and four hit shutout with
• 1:24:02
  Speaker 1: no walks, six strikeouts against Tampa Bay. He had one
• 1:24:06
  Speaker 1: really bad start against the Red Sox at Fenway, where
• 1:24:08
  Speaker 1: they knocked him around. But I'm seeing some signs that
• 1:24:12
  Speaker 1: he's good Man because he really has not had an
• 1:24:14
  Speaker 1: easy opponent. His easiest game was the home game against
• 1:24:17
  Speaker 1: Tampa Bay. So he's actually stepping down in class to
• 1:24:20
  Speaker 1: face the White Sox. The White Sox will be the
• 1:24:22
  Speaker 1: worst offense that he's faced by far. He actually debuted
• 1:24:26
  Speaker 1: by going six to two thirds and allowing only one
• 1:24:28
  Speaker 1: in and run at Arizona. That's a good sign. And
• 1:24:31
  Speaker 1: then his last start, he faced the team that had
• 1:24:33
  Speaker 1: already seen him once, Tampa Bay, and Tampa didn't even
• 1:24:36
  Speaker 1: hit him. They weren't even They still couldn't hit him.
• 1:24:38
  Speaker 1: Even if it was in Steinbrunner Field, very hit or
• 1:24:40
  Speaker 1: friendly ballpark, they still couldn't hit him. In six innings
• 1:24:44
  Speaker 1: one and run, allowed four strike outs, no walks. Overall,
• 1:24:46
  Speaker 1: he is an eighteen to three strikeout walk, so that solid.
• 1:24:49
  Speaker 1: He's allowed too many hits, but basically that all came
• 1:24:52
  Speaker 1: in that one bad start against the Red Sox, so
• 1:24:55
  Speaker 1: that looks like more of an outlier because he's been
• 1:24:57
  Speaker 1: excellent otherwise, has really good command. The White Sox very
• 1:25:01
  Speaker 1: weak offense, and they've never seen him before. So I
• 1:25:03
  Speaker 1: think Messek is gonna come out a bitch well on
• 1:25:05
  Speaker 1: this one. So we'll go with the Cleveland Indians on
• 1:25:08
  Speaker 1: the run line, and that's gonna do it. Man once again.
• 1:25:11
  Speaker 1: My plays for the day College football Temple plus twenty four,
• 1:25:15
  Speaker 1: Missouri State plus twenty eight, Miami of Florida minus seventeen
• 1:25:19
  Speaker 1: and a half. I know you gotta lay the hook
• 1:25:21
  Speaker 1: on that one now, but I think they should get
• 1:25:23
  Speaker 1: it done. Vandy would get a little bit of a
• 1:25:24
  Speaker 1: worse number there, two plus three, but I like it,
• 1:25:27
  Speaker 1: and Baseball I don't like it as much over in Rangers,
• 1:25:31
  Speaker 1: Mets and Cleveland Indians. Half bet on the run line,
• 1:25:35
  Speaker 1: half bet on the money line. Thanks for hanging out,
• 1:25:37
  Speaker 1: Charles and Nate. I think was in here right. Thanks
• 1:25:40
  Speaker 1: for hanging out this morning. I'll be back again tonight,
• 1:25:44
  Speaker 1: I guess with maybe two shows because I might do
• 1:25:47
  Speaker 1: a WNBA bracket breakdown quickly, and then I will have
• 1:25:50
  Speaker 1: the NFL show with the late night degenerate hours. But
• 1:25:53
  Speaker 1: at least that one is shorter than the college football show,
• 1:25:56
  Speaker 1: so we'll get that done. It'll be fun. So hang
• 1:25:59
  Speaker 1: out with me again tonight, late night. That's gonna do
• 1:26:02
  Speaker 1: it for now. Learn to tone and I almost said
• 1:26:04
  Speaker 1: tower Ganga and learned it toe on Twitter. Learn it's
• 1:26:06
  Speaker 1: on Instagram. Better off dead, like subscribe to the channel.
• 1:26:10
  Speaker 1: Let's get us some more views here, man, Let's pump
• 1:26:13
  Speaker 1: this thing up. Get monetized. I we're monetized on the audio,
• 1:26:16
  Speaker 1: so I want to get some of the dough rolling
• 1:26:19
  Speaker 1: in over there, give me a good review on Spotify, Apple,
• 1:26:23
  Speaker 1: I'm over there, covered in you because my yuke channel
• 1:26:26
  Speaker 1: on YouTube. I know, as I always say, I have
• 1:26:28
  Speaker 1: to keep it more up to date than I do.
• 1:26:29
  Speaker 1: I'm sorry, man, I feel like I'm just way too
• 1:26:32
  Speaker 1: busy all the time, even though I don't even have
• 1:26:33
  Speaker 1: a real job right now. I'm kind of I should
• 1:26:35
  Speaker 1: get paid for all this shit, so I should be
• 1:26:38
  Speaker 1: betting and I should be winning money. That's probably what
• 1:26:40
  Speaker 1: I should be doing, because that's a lot of my
• 1:26:43
  Speaker 1: focus right now. It's all stupid. And then what else
• 1:26:47
  Speaker 1: do we have? Patreon dot com, slash learned to Toe
• 1:26:49
  Speaker 1: and you can throw me some support there so you
• 1:26:52
  Speaker 1: can help me there as well. Thank you, sir, Thank you, Charles.
• 1:26:56
  Speaker 1: You're biased though, you just like me Man Tower Game
• 1:26:59
  Speaker 1: Forever of course. Uh, that's gonna do it, be a Patren.
• 1:27:02
  Speaker 1: There are some there's some yuke at the bonus levels,
• 1:27:04
  Speaker 1: which I have to again, I have to get that
• 1:27:06
  Speaker 1: up to date. But the weekends during football season are
• 1:27:08
  Speaker 1: very very busy too, so I'm gonna have to get
• 1:27:11
  Speaker 1: some lunch. I'm actually gonna be down at my parents
• 1:27:13
  Speaker 1: as well, so I'm gonna be there for a while
• 1:27:16
  Speaker 1: today as well, but that's gonna do it for now.
• 1:27:18
  Speaker 1: Have a good day everybody. For now, let's get some
• 1:27:20
  Speaker 1: wins today. Enjoy the football especially today, and peace out everybody.