Latest / Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast / Felix Prehn - Warning: US Jobs Data Out! 🚀 + Stock Market News 15 August 2024

Transcript

Felix Prehn - Warning: US Jobs Data Out! 🚀 + Stock Market News 15 August 2024 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Felix here and good morning to you, to this pre-market live.
• 0:04
  Speaker 1: Let me just check.
• 0:05
  Speaker 1: Oh, sounds good, yeah, good.
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: We've just had massive whopping data run, not just the jobs data, but retail sales data and I'm going to show it to you straight away because this is the most important thing of ever.
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: But you're wrong if you're interpreting it.
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: Let me explain.
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: Okay, retail sales data came in at 1%.
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: Now we're expecting 0.2% 0.3%.
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: Last month it was falling.
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: So you might be thinking that's brilliant news, felix.
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: The economy is strong, there'll be no recession, none of that talk, the market's going to go to the moon and all of that right.
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: Well, you'd be wrong to think that.
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: Let me explain to you in a second why.
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: But also, let's look at jobless data.
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: What's good?
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: High numbers, low numbers.
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: At the moment we're not quite sure.
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: Do we want more unemployment or do we want less unemployment?
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: If we get more unemployment, then we're definitely going to get a rate cut.
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: But we kind of already think we're definitely going to get a rate cut and therefore, if we got more unemployment, we might get the ugly R word.
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: The recession, and therefore the best kind of jobless claims right now, is basically in line with expectation, and it's pretty much that.
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: I mean give or take.
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: What is that?
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: 8,000 people or something?
• 1:29
  Speaker 1: Nobody really cares.
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: Nobody really cares.
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: Honestly, wall Street is like whatever 8,000 more people out on the street, we don't care.
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: Lovely people on Wall Street.
• 1:40
  Speaker 1: One more thing the New York State Manufacturing Index has fallen, for I think it's what is it?
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: Eight months in a row?
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: That's a little bit of a recession indicator, isn't it?
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: Manufacturing falling eight months in a row?
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: Not brilliant?
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: But let's not get hung up on that.
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: Let's not get up on the Philly numbers also coming down shockingly below expectations.
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: No, no, no, no, none of that.
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: No, no, no.
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: It's all good news here, just like our stock chart that I like to show you is good news.
• 2:11
  Speaker 1: You know we're making money and some of you are saying Felix, why are you up only 80%?
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: We're up literally 80% on a $30,000 portfolio.
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: You're always showing me the same chart.
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: Why is that?
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: Because I've been lazy.
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: These are the trades I've got open right now.
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: If I closed them, yeah, I'd get an extra 8% and that'd be impressive, but I don't want to close these trades yet.
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: I think they've still got life in them.
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: So there you are.
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: We've got very little trades open right now.
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: But why do I show you this?
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: Because I want to inspire you to learn.
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: Show you this because I want to inspire you to learn.
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: I don't want you to be like, I don't want to gloat, I don't want to tell you that you can make the same money, but because so many of you, especially the Brits and we worry about the Brits, right, they're rioters.
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: Now the Brits were rioting in my inbox and saying Felix, you did a two-day training session and it was at like two in the morning, london time.
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: Do you not realize?
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: We're the empire we're going to riot.
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: So I've given in.
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: I'm scared of the Brits right now.
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: We're running a free beginner workshop next week, tuesday, 3 pm London time, 10 am New York time.
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: So grab yourself a seat, especially if you are one of those riotous Brits.
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: Felixrunsorg slash workshop link is down below in the description, as they say.
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: Okay, so let's get back to retail sales.
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: This is the story that's just hammering the market this morning in a good way.
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: Right, when you have 30K in your pocket, what is the rush to trade?
• 3:35
  Speaker 1: Well, you could make 300,.
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: You could make 3 million.
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: You could make 30 million.
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: You could make 300 million.
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: You could make 3 billion.
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: You know I could go on, right, there is always a zero, I'd like to add, and obviously it's a teaching portfolio.
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: It's intentionally small.
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: Okay, so this is the retail sales data and on the face of it, prima facie, as the lawyers say, it looks brilliant.
• 4:00
  Speaker 1: Right, everyone's shopping.
• 4:03
  Speaker 1: It's like a pretty woman is what's been happening here in the last month.
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: And Bloomberg says US retail sales pick up by more than forecast.
• 4:14
  Speaker 1: The data points to a resilient consumer, even in the face of high prices and borrowing costs.
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: And they're idiots.
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: Bloomberg are officially idiots.
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: I mean, I've always thought that I subscribe to it for entertainment value occasionally, right?
• 4:35
  Speaker 1: Why?
• 4:35
  Speaker 1: Because they don't look at the data.
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: They don't look at last month's data.
• 4:38
  Speaker 1: No-transcript told us that retail sales are up one percentage point compared to what Compared to last month.
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: Now, if you were so minded to manipulate that data to make yourself look better and improve your election chances you know if you're some sort of tin pot dictator election chances, you know if you're some sort of tin pot dictator then what would you do?
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: Well, why not mess with the comparison point, which was last month?
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: What if we lower last month's number and therefore make this month's number better.
• 5:24
  Speaker 1: That's exactly what they've done and they've done it this month.
• 5:27
  Speaker 1: They've also done it one, two, three, four, five, six, seven.
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: In terms of eight times out of the last year.
• 5:34
  Speaker 1: They have revised lower last month's data.
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: So they're saying last month's retail sales was terrible, but this month's is much better than last month's terrible number and therefore it makes this month's number look better.
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: And nobody goes back and looks at last month's number because that's a weird thing to do, including Bloomberg, who says points to resilient consumer, no, it points to a particularly creative number fudger in the government and that's sort of this.
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: And therefore all this story and yes, the market's believing Bloomberg right now because it's run by nincompoops, but this story will come out Might take a few hours.
• 6:12
  Speaker 1: It might take a few hours, it might take a few days.
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: It depends a little bit on the wheels on Wall Street and just how coked up everybody is.
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: This morning Did I just say that I probably shouldn't have said that right?
• 6:21
  Speaker 1: So, yeah, the numbers are bollocks.
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: They're not terrible, but they're nowhere near the 1%, so I wouldn't get too excited about it.
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: But the market is getting rather excited overall by it, which is, of course, lovely to see.
• 6:38
  Speaker 1: Just be a little cautious on the consumer stocks, and I keep saying that.
• 6:42
  Speaker 1: I'll keep saying that.
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: You know your Nikes and so on.
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: Nike is in the green today, you know.
• 6:48
  Speaker 1: Be a little bit cautious on those At 4.8%.
• 6:51
  Speaker 1: Okay, maybe something actually happened at Nike.
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: Maybe they found a trainer people wanted to buy.
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: Actually, I got children over here the other day and they wanted to buy Nike trainers.
• 6:58
  Speaker 1: Went to like 18 Nike stores and they couldn't find the trainer they wanted.
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: So children still like Nikes, which is good.
• 7:05
  Speaker 1: It's not the end of the world for Nike.
• 7:08
  Speaker 1: But yeah, look at the big tech stocks.
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: They're all up just about a percentage point or less.
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: Amazon is flying 2.9% at.
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: Tesla 1.5% up, which is quite nice to see.
• 7:17
  Speaker 1: Fat drugs are floating to the top.
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: Berkshire up.
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: Banks up Consumer.
• 7:36
  Speaker 1: Non, I'm going to put you a time out.
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: You're irritating my friend.
• 7:41
  Speaker 1: You keep doing that.
• 7:41
  Speaker 1: Second day in a row.
• 7:42
  Speaker 1: You ask the same question five times in a row.
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: You got to learn some patience.
• 7:47
  Speaker 1: Okay, I do my best to answer all questions, but just don't post it again and again, and again and again in that aggressive kind of fashion.
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: You know you look like a spammer.
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: So, okay, let's move a step back from the outrage at what the government does and, by the way, this isn't Democrat bashing.
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: All governments do this, some better than others.
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: This one's particularly good at it.
• 8:06
  Speaker 1: Key, you've been rioting since 1642.
• 8:10
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I know, I know.
• 8:10
  Speaker 1: Only 82 likes.
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: Yeah, the likes are.
• 8:13
  Speaker 1: Is there something you've got to log in or something to like Some sort of change in the algorithm?
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: 92 likes, which is pretty harsh.
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: Lost in BKK.
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: They ban him, the Hamazar.
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: You see where are you from?
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: Lost in BKK.
• 8:25
  Speaker 1: You're a Brit by origin.
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: Are you one of those rioters?
• 8:28
  Speaker 1: Probably?
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: Life video is gone, really so weird what happens to some of you on the stream here.
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: Okay, so let's have a quick look up at the Fed saying we're going to have a look at some stocks, we're going to look at some charts, we're going to look at some stories, we're going to look at some things we're going to buy today, and probably so the Fed's Raphael Bostic, who's been pretty hawkish right, he's kind of like the strong man of the Fed.
• 8:55
  Speaker 1: He says he's open to a September rate cut, saying the central bank can't afford to be late.
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: We can't afford to print $4 trillion, but we can't afford to be late to cut rates.
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: And his Chicago colleague Gouldsby still one of the coolest names around said he's growing more concerned about the labor market compared with inflation.
• 9:16
  Speaker 1: What does that equal?
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: Rate cut, rate cut.
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: I don't know why I'm using a red pen today.
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: It's a bit menacing, isn't it?
• 9:23
  Speaker 1: It's easily you use a blue one.
• 9:25
  Speaker 1: So that is, of course, good news for stocks and another reason it should go up.
• 9:30
  Speaker 1: And here he says, yeah.
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: Gorsby says he was growing more concerned about the labor market.
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: He said interest rates are in very restrictive territory, which would only be appropriate if the economy was overheating and therefore we're going to get a rate cut.
• 9:47
  Speaker 1: Now, random lineup this is the S&P this morning.
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: This is a screenshot from trade vision I took.
• 9:54
  Speaker 1: And what do you see when you look at that and we looked at this a little bit on the life trading challenge we did for the last two days what do you see on this chart?
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: You see a couple of lines, right.
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: So you see this yellow line here that I'm drawing in fat, and that's the 50-day moving average, 50-day MA.
• 10:18
  Speaker 1: We're above it.
• 10:19
  Speaker 1: Sunshine, everything is wonderful.
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: We're below it.
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: We get a little bit scared, right, but right now we are trending above it.
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: We haven't closed above it yet.
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: But that sort of dotted line here is where we're trading right now, so that's a positive.
• 10:33
  Speaker 1: What's this blue line there?
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: That's our sort of downtrend where we've not managed to break through these highs here.
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: So today is kind of decision day.
• 10:46
  Speaker 1: We're either going to close above sort of 545 and everything will be wonderful.
• 10:53
  Speaker 1: Wonderful, or we won't.
• 10:58
  Speaker 1: In which case it won't be, I'm rather optimistic.
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: There is some resistance over here at around $550.
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: What's that over there?
• 11:08
  Speaker 1: That's actual trade positions that will act.
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: Those guys will basically sell when we get to $550.
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: So you've got to bear that in mind.
• 11:17
  Speaker 1: 550 is going to be a tough nut to crack on.
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: This glorious Thursday Is it Thursday?
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: I think it's Thursday.
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: Okay, let's move on to a few other stories.
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: It is the season for hedge funds to have to release their trades, and that's happening today and, I think, up to Wednesday.
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: I actually made a video on a couple of the big funds Not Michael Burry, though.
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: Burry has increased his stake in Alibaba, which is an interesting choice Risky, I would argue, but he is Michael Burry.
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: What else has he got?
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: Shift for payments, and he's sold a bunch of other stuff.
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: He's mostly sold stocks, by the way.
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: He's mostly sold stocks.
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: He's cut his portfolio in half approximately, but Alibaba is something he bought, which I wouldn't recommend doing it, to be honest with you.
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: But let me summarize a little bit what we talked about yesterday.
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: I'm bullish, I'm bullish.
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: I'm bullish right now, until early September, september 6th to be precise.
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: Why?
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: Right now, retail you and me.
• 12:31
  Speaker 1: We're buying the freaking dip, right.
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: We're excited.
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: The corporate buyback window is in full, fully open.
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: They're buying as much as they can until the sixth.
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: So on the sixth it starts to close again.
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: Pensions are going to buy about 40 billion.
• 12:45
  Speaker 1: Um, if we keep going up like we we it looks like we are we might get the algo funds buying again up to 170 billion.
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: Uh, we have the fed flipped I would say that would have been a good title for this video and we've got sort of faux data out on the strength of the economy, which is nonsense, but still a lot of people believe it, which will be somewhat supportive.