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Daniel Davis Deep Dive · Brian Thomas

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: In right now it's time for the daniel davis deep
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  Speaker 1: dive daniel davis retired lieutenant colonel and he does have
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  Speaker 1: a lot of information lots of resources and comments regularly
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  Speaker 1: on the war situations going on the world post notably
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  Speaker 1: we got the middle east conflict with us and the
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  Speaker 1: iranians as well as russia and ukraine welcome back daniel
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  Speaker 1: davis my friend it's always a pleasure to have you
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  Speaker 1: on the show.
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  Speaker 2: Always a pleasure to be here brian uh can.
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  Speaker 1: We start with the russia ukraine situation since apparently uh
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  Speaker 1: president zelensky from uh ukraine is uh at the un
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  Speaker 1: and he is uh talking with Donald Trump about maybe
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  Speaker 1: an energy ceasefire. And I was kind of curious about
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  Speaker 1: this because Donald Trump had asked both the Russians and
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  Speaker 1: the Ukrainians to stop bombing oil infrastructure. We have a global,
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  Speaker 1: I don't know if you know, Daniel Davis, we've got
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  Speaker 1: a global energy crisis. We're kind of short on diesel
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  Speaker 1: and gasoline's through the roof. And so you're aware of that, right? Anyway,
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  Speaker 1: in order to try to not exacerbate the problem, I
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  Speaker 1: thought the parties had sort of at least tenuously agreed that, yeah,
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  Speaker 1: that wouldn't happen. And then wasn't it like one day later,
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  Speaker 1: Zelensky launches all kinds of drones and rockets into Russia
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  Speaker 1: and blows up a diesel facility. Can you make sense
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  Speaker 1: of this for my listeners and most notably me, sir?
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, the timing is kind of important on that.
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  Speaker 2: So last week, President Trump puts out a true social
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  Speaker 2: in which he said that both Russia and Ukraine had
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  Speaker 2: agreed to a ceasefire on energy systems, on each other's
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  Speaker 2: energy systems, that they had both agreed and therefore it
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  Speaker 2: was going to stop. About five or six hours later,
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  Speaker 2: Zelensky posts something and says, that's an interesting concept, and
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  Speaker 2: we're willing to give it some consideration, as long as
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  Speaker 2: Russia doesn't this whole laundry list of other things, which,
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  Speaker 2: of course, Russia is never going to do. And then
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  Speaker 2: three hours after that, then Zelensky attacks a specific refining
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  Speaker 2: capacity or facility in Russia that reprocesses both jet fuel supplies.
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  Speaker 2: and diesel. I mean, it was like a direct in-your-face
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  Speaker 2: repudiation to what President Trump said. The Russians, by the way,
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  Speaker 2: that day never made any comment. The next morning, their
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  Speaker 2: Kremlin spokesman said, well, it's an interesting idea. We'll give
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  Speaker 2: it some consideration. Never went anywhere from it. So it's
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  Speaker 2: interesting that now Zelensky wants to go back to what
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  Speaker 2: President Trump claimed was already on the table, but the
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  Speaker 2: Russians are going to have none of it because For
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  Speaker 2: whatever is being hit on the Russian side, the Russians
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  Speaker 2: are hitting probably 10 times that much on the Ukraine side.
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  Speaker 2: So they're coming out on the less of it. So
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  Speaker 2: Russia's not going to stop doing something that is painful
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  Speaker 2: to them. They would like it to stop on them,
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  Speaker 2: but the pain that they're inflicting on their opponent is
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  Speaker 2: far greater. so it would actually help Ukraine more than
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  Speaker 2: it would Russia. Therefore, Russia is not going to agree
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  Speaker 2: to it.
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  Speaker 1: Well, if you could explain the military strategy or thinking
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  Speaker 1: behind the Ukrainian regular drone strikes, I just get the
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  Speaker 1: impression that they're endeavoring to wear down the will of
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  Speaker 1: the Russian people, although noting that, gee, shocking, Putin won
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  Speaker 1: the election the other day. I don't know if you
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  Speaker 1: consider that a fair election or not, sir, but it
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  Speaker 1: was one election. But Do the Russian people really have
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  Speaker 1: any say whatsoever, absent Putin's military advisors or folks that
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  Speaker 1: surround him that might, I don't know, do a coup
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  Speaker 1: d'etat or otherwise disappear him? I mean, Putin's the guy
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  Speaker 1: in charge, and he's not going anywhere. And the Ukrainians
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  Speaker 1: bombing Russian infrastructure hasn't weakened Putin's will. So what do
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  Speaker 1: you see being accomplished by this, I guess?
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, I think that's important to point out. I think
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  Speaker 2: that we in the West get a lot of comfort
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  Speaker 2: or we want to get comfort from this belief that, well,
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  Speaker 2: the Russian people have no freedoms and they are not
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  Speaker 2: for Putin and they're suppressed and kept down and their
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  Speaker 2: elections aren't free and fair. All evidence I can see
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  Speaker 2: independently from the European Union and other places are that
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  Speaker 2: the elections are completely free and fair. And in fact,
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  Speaker 2: the President Putin's political party won a pretty big majority,
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  Speaker 2: bigger than they had before, and it's about 55%. So
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  Speaker 2: it's not like, you know, 98.1% or something like that's
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  Speaker 2: obviously nonsense like they do in North Korea. But it
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  Speaker 2: was a fair election, and the other parties won their,
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  Speaker 2: you know, percentages or whatever. But that matches what the
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  Speaker 2: polls are showing, that the people are behind President Putin.
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  Speaker 2: Because these strikes, I know, again, the idea is, well,
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  Speaker 2: let's wear them down and then they'll quit. But that
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  Speaker 2: shows a gross misunderstanding of what it looks like inside
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  Speaker 2: of Russia. They see this as an existential attack, not
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  Speaker 2: by Ukraine, by the entire cumulative West. And we brag
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  Speaker 2: all the time about how the entire West is behind it,
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  Speaker 2: that Germany, France, Britain are helping long-range strikes hit inside
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  Speaker 2: of Russia. We're helping with intelligence attacks. targeting support, etc.,
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  Speaker 2: so they feel the world is against them, so they
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  Speaker 2: will never, never give up. And these strikes just say,
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  Speaker 2: if anything, the complaint against Putin is not that, why
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  Speaker 2: are you fighting this war? We should stop. It's, why
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  Speaker 2: are you not fighting it harder and going further and
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  Speaker 2: hitting the Western Europeans who are striking us with these
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  Speaker 2: long-range strikes? So it's only going to have a solidifying
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  Speaker 2: effect on the Russians. It's not going to wear them down.
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  Speaker 1: Do you see Putin going in that direction and going
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  Speaker 1: after targets further in and maybe even attacking one of
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  Speaker 1: the NATO countries? We've got defense agreements with the NATO countries,
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  Speaker 1: so that really worries me from a World War III perspective.
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  Speaker 1: We do.
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  Speaker 2: But yes, Russia has openly talked about that. Putin has.
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  Speaker 2: Lavrov has. They say they don't want to, but they say, listen,
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  Speaker 2: our patience is not limited. You cannot continue to use, basically,
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  Speaker 2: like with some of the British storm shadows, they're doing
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  Speaker 2: everything except pulling the trigger. It is Britain firing into
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  Speaker 2: Russia and hitting some of these oil refineries, etc. And
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  Speaker 2: so the people are saying, why are we just forever
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  Speaker 2: going to allow another country to attack us through the
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  Speaker 2: proxy of Ukraine? And do nothing to that other country.
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  Speaker 2: So there's lots of pressure on that, but there is
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  Speaker 2: Article 5. But here's the thing. Russia is calculating, and militarily,
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  Speaker 2: it's not without some credibility that we can't, the NATO side,
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  Speaker 2: cannot fight a war against Russia because it doesn't matter
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  Speaker 2: what your GDP is or how many planes and tanks,
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  Speaker 2: it matters how much ammunition you have. Offensive missiles and,
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  Speaker 2: most importantly, defensive missiles, we have almost none because we've
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  Speaker 2: given them all the way to Israel. We've given them
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  Speaker 2: all the way to Ukraine. We've used them ourselves in
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  Speaker 2: the Middle East. There's just hardly any available. And Russia
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  Speaker 2: has new categories of weapons that the PAK-3s and the
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  Speaker 2: THAADs won't even stop, so it doesn't even matter. If
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  Speaker 2: we get into a conventional fight with Russia, we are
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  Speaker 2: going to get pounded, and many in Russia are saying
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  Speaker 2: it's worth it to finally stop these attacks. So far, Putin,
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  Speaker 2: who has been very cautious, has said, no, let's keep
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  Speaker 2: going with the slow, methodical Anakonda deal, and eventually we'll
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  Speaker 2: strangle Ukraine and we'll have it successfully accomplished. But there
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  Speaker 2: are those who say our patience is not unlimited, and
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  Speaker 2: I think we're playing with fire to see how far
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  Speaker 2: we can push them.
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  Speaker 1: And at this juncture, no hope for a resolution, even
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  Speaker 1: if it involves Ukraine giving up land?
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  Speaker 2: There is, actually, yeah. Russia continues to say their diplomacy
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  Speaker 2: is on the table, but it's those ugly terms from
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  Speaker 2: June 2024 which haven't changed, which is all of the
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  Speaker 2: four oblasts, Demilitarization, denazification, no NATO neutrality status, all those
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  Speaker 2: same kinds of things that we've rejected in the past,
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  Speaker 2: but it's still on the table.
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  Speaker 1: Sounds like parallels can be drawn with the situation in
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  Speaker 1: the Mideast. And talk about proxies. The Houthis really came
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  Speaker 1: out strong in bombing Saudi Arabia from their presence in Yemen.
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  Speaker 1: That's sort of a new development. I read someplace, this
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  Speaker 1: isn't a thought of my own, a suggestion that the
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  Speaker 1: Houthis attacking Saudi Arabia, targets in Saudi Arabia, even if
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  Speaker 1: they're our military bases, might serve to drive Saudi Arabia
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  Speaker 1: into the Abraham Accords?
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  Speaker 2: No, I don't think it's going to drive them into
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  Speaker 2: the Abraham Accords because the Abraham Accords are predicated on
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  Speaker 2: Israel having a Palestinian state. And there's no evidence that
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  Speaker 2: Israel has any possibility or willingness to do that. And
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  Speaker 2: the Saudi Arabian side... would have a revolt of their
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  Speaker 2: people if they suddenly gave in on that. And the
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  Speaker 2: only way that they would even contemplate that is if
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  Speaker 2: all of a sudden Israel was going to join militarily,
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  Speaker 2: so they had a pretty big quid pro quo, which
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  Speaker 2: Israel's not going to do. So now then you have the,
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  Speaker 2: obviously the United States has not been willing to help
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  Speaker 2: Saudi Arabia. So UK did. UK said, hey, you know what,
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  Speaker 2: we'll give you some aerial resupport. We'll give you a
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  Speaker 2: little bit of help, but that's not going to be
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  Speaker 2: the big problem because aerial power is not going to
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  Speaker 2: bring the Houthis to their knees as we have seen
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  Speaker 2: since 2015. And everybody has tried. Saudi Arabia, U.S., the
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  Speaker 2: Biden administration, Trump administration, the Israelis, Everybody has tried. Nobody
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  Speaker 2: has succeeded. We won't now either. So we're going to
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  Speaker 2: have to find another way out of that one.
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  Speaker 1: Well, and Donald Trump occasionally will pop up and talk
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  Speaker 1: about bombing the Iranians into the Stone Age. But going
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  Speaker 1: back to your earlier point about munition shortages, that same
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  Speaker 1: problem exists over there. If we're going to start a
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  Speaker 1: bombing campaign, we better have the munitions to engage in
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  Speaker 1: the bombing campaign. Not that I believe it's necessarily a
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  Speaker 1: good idea.
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  Speaker 2: 100%. I mean, and this target set is nearly the same. Yemen,
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  Speaker 2: the part where the Houthis are, alhamdulillah, is smaller, obviously,
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  Speaker 2: than Iran, but it's the same kind of terrain. They
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  Speaker 2: have the same mountains issues. They have the same facilities,
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  Speaker 2: what we call missile cities underground. They have the same thing.
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  Speaker 2: The same problem is why the Biden administration didn't succeed,
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  Speaker 2: the Trump administration didn't succeed in 2025, the Israelis didn't succeed.
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  Speaker 2: You can blow up lots of targets on the surface,
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  Speaker 2: But it's underneath the surface where their ballistic missile factories
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  Speaker 2: and launch points are, and we can't get at them.
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  Speaker 2: So it's the exact same problem, just a smaller version
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  Speaker 2: of it.
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  Speaker 1: Well, someday, Daniel Davis, someday. You and I are going
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  Speaker 1: to end this conversation with some great news reporting. There's
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  Speaker 1: peace around the world. We're all going to be celebrating,
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  Speaker 1: but that day is not yet. here. Any just sort
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  Speaker 1: of concluding observations, Daniel, the direction this is all going?
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  Speaker 1: I mean, do you see like down the road where
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  Speaker 1: you think this might end up? I hate to have
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  Speaker 1: to press you on that, but I mean, I just
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  Speaker 1: feel like I'm in desperation mode at this juncture. The
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  Speaker 1: frustrating part is there are diplomatic solutions for both of these.
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  Speaker 1: They're ugly from our perspective, but they're effective.
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  Speaker 2: We can just choose to say, all right, we're going
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  Speaker 2: to acknowledge reality. That's the key point. You have to
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  Speaker 2: start with, I'm going to acknowledge reality. We cannot defeat
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  Speaker 2: Russia militarily no matter what we do. Everything else we
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  Speaker 2: could try would only expand it and possibly draw us
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  Speaker 2: into it. Don't go there. Do something closer than June 2025.
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  Speaker 2: And on the other case here... We just have to say, look,
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  Speaker 2: we're willing to live with Iran. Just declare victory, whatever
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  Speaker 2: you want to say, and then leave. The strait will
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  Speaker 2: open up because Iran has incentive to do so. They're
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  Speaker 2: going to charge a fee. That's just the cost of
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  Speaker 2: doing business. We shouldn't have started this war because we
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  Speaker 2: can't militarily win it, but we can leave without causing
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  Speaker 2: any more trouble, and we can start rebuilding our assets.
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  Speaker 2: That's where we should go. That's where we can go.
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  Speaker 1: All right, maybe a hard pill to swallow or a
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  Speaker 1: bitter pill to swallow, but if that's the answer, maybe
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  Speaker 1: we are in a better place if we just go
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  Speaker 1: down that road.
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  Speaker 2: Can you imagine two years from now, no one would
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  Speaker 2: remember the hard bitter pill, but we won't be losing
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  Speaker 2: any more troops. We won't be losing any more missiles.
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  Speaker 1: We'll be rebuilding.
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  Speaker 2: It is the best path.
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  Speaker 1: Huh. Yeah, we did get over the situation from, what, Korea, Vietnam.
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  Speaker 1: I mean, I could go on. Daniel, you know the
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: whole litany. Daniel Davis Deep Dive.
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  Speaker 2: That's a good analogy.
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: Find your podcast wherever you get it. Find Daniel Davis
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: Deep Dive wherever you get your podcasts and tune in
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: every week at 830 here on 55KRC Talk Station. We'll
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  Speaker 1: do it again next week, Daniel. Take care, my friend.
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: Get in. It's 840 right now, 55KRC Talk Station, where
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  Speaker 1: he's still a doctor, Dr.