Latest / The Fourcast / How is the Ukraine-Russia war escalating?

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How is the Ukraine-Russia war escalating? · The Fourcast

0:00
We need to understand that if Russia is not in the world with
0:03
Ukraine, they already consider that they're in the war with
0:06
NATO, with Western everybody. So you can't sit in Berlin,
0:10
London or Washington and say, Oh no, I have just my Thanksgiving
0:14
Turkey and we'll have a nice evening while you have the war
0:17
there. All of this is building towards
0:18
some sort of negotiation and so both sides are trying to get as
0:22
much as they possibly can ahead of that.
0:24
That's why for Ukrainians it will sacrifice, but also the
0:27
question is why we should give something what always been ours.
0:32
Would you say Ukraine is currently losing?
0:34
I would say that Ukraine is currently losing ground,
0:37
certainly, and ground is what matters at this moment in this
0:42
war. Hello and welcome to the
0:49
Political Forecast. I'm Krishna Guru Murthy.
0:52
This week has seen a significant escalation by Russia in Ukraine,
0:56
particularly in its use of drone attacks, but also in the
0:59
deployment of what they called an experimental hypersonic
1:03
missile on the city of Denipro. Diplomatically, they are also
1:07
moving to they are expelling a British diplomat from Moscow,
1:11
putting British politicians on a banned list for travel to
1:16
Russia. And of course, Vladimir Putin
1:18
has recently amended his nuclear doctrine and is talking up the
1:22
possibility of using nuclear weapons.
1:25
To discuss where this is all heading before Donald Trump
1:28
takes up the White House, I'm joined from Odessa by Doctor
1:32
Hannah Schillest, who's director of security programs at the
1:35
Ukrainian think tank Ukrainian Prism.
1:38
And our international editor, Lindsay Hilson joins us from
1:41
Denipro. Lindsay, let's start with the
1:43
situation on the ground because it it looks like Ukraine is
1:47
losing significant amounts, significant amounts of
1:50
territory. It's not good for Ukraine at the
1:53
moment on the front line. It's losing a little bit
1:57
everyday, a few 100 yards a kilometre here and there.
2:01
There is a lot of fighting around a place called Karakova,
2:05
which is a couple about 300 kilometres to the east of where
2:09
I am and that is seems to be the Russians next target, another
2:14
village near their fell today also north of here, a place
2:17
called Kupiansk. So what we're seeing is this
2:20
increasing pressure by Russia on this frontline in Donetsk and
2:27
moving a little S towards Zaparisia, also Pokropsk, which
2:30
is east of where I am as well. So even as the Russians continue
2:34
to put pressure on cities by firing great, you know, missiles
2:39
and swarms of drones, they're also making progress on the
2:42
front line. So, so despite the approval of
2:47
the use of these sort of new longer range weapons from
2:50
America, Britain and France, would you say Ukraine is
2:54
currently losing? I would say that Ukraine is
2:57
currently losing ground, certainly, and ground is what
3:02
matters at this moment in this war.
3:05
Hannah, I mean, what's your analysis of, of where things sit
3:09
at the moment? I would say that it is neither
3:12
black or white. The truth is somewhere in the
3:14
middle, because Lindsay is right.
3:16
We have quite a difficult situation on the east of the
3:19
country. But there you need to understand
3:22
how much efforts and materials and people and every single
3:25
Russian need to use to get each next village.
3:28
In general, most of the biggest or most important towns for
3:32
them, it took them six months and seven months and thousands
3:37
and thousands killed. So that is a part, it's a
3:40
victory. It's it's not a real victory if
3:42
you think strategically. At the same time, we had a very
3:46
serious strikes against the airfields, against the depot
3:49
with ammunition, against the production of the drones
3:52
facilities. So Ukraine continued the tactic
3:56
of targeting Russian logistics and supply so to limit their
4:00
possibilities of further attacks.
4:03
So in terms of the north, we even see the returning of some
4:07
of the territories. The situation improved around
4:10
Kupansk, for example, within the last few days.
4:13
We see the new attacks on the South again, Crimea.
4:17
What is important, we're keeping the forces in Hirsong region and
4:21
the Parisian region. And what is interesting, the
4:23
last few days when I'm monitoring the Russian military
4:26
channels, for example, oblongers, they started a little
4:30
bit panicking, saying that Ukrainians are accumulating all
4:34
the efforts for the big stride. So at least psychologically,
4:37
they're preparing. They're waiting for some new big
4:40
strike from Ukrainians I. Mean there is a general
4:43
assumption, Hannah, that, you know, all of this is building
4:46
towards some sort of negotiation and so both sides are trying to
4:50
get as much as they possibly can ahead of that.
4:54
You know what what is the military goal, if you like, of
4:57
Ukraine in the next two months? That is the question to the
5:01
president of Ukraine or the chief commander, because they
5:06
surprised us during these three years quite often when what we
5:10
thought should be their goal and they acted absolutely different.
5:13
But that is good because they also surprised the adversary.
5:16
Still, we understand that the task is, first of all, not to
5:19
lose new territories, the second to demonstrate Russians how
5:23
expensive, not in terms of money, but in terms of efforts
5:27
and materials they need to spend for these work because they also
5:32
need additional people, first of all for the attacks.
5:37
And the third one is to demonstrate that Ukraine can get
5:41
something back, because, as we know, President Trump likes
5:45
winners, so you cannot be a loser in the middle of your
5:49
negotiations. As soon as we are able to keep
5:52
Kursk, not because we need it, but because there is a
5:55
humiliation for the Russian Federation and their commanders,
5:58
and also because in this case they cannot say that we are
6:01
stopping with the ceasefire where all the forces now
6:05
definitely Russia will not be able to say it if we are
6:08
controlling even few villages in that course region I.
6:12
Mean Lindsay Is it wrong to assume that both sides will
6:16
enter into any kind of negotiation once Trump is
6:20
president in intending to find a deal?
6:25
Well, I think that Ukraine will probably have little choice.
6:31
And what I've noticed from speaking to officials here in in
6:36
Ukraine since I've been here is that they're putting on, they're
6:40
putting on a good face. They're saying, oh, well, you
6:42
know, in some ways it's good that President Trump is coming
6:45
in because he's decisive. And the problem we've had is
6:48
that President Biden has been so indecisive and he's eked out
6:52
giving us weapons, always giving us not enough weapons and always
6:56
giving us too late. So it's better to have Ukraine.
6:59
It's better to have Trump so. But I think that the danger is
7:04
that Donald Trump may want to do some kind of deal over the heads
7:08
of Ukrainians because he talks about negotiating with Putin.
7:12
He talks about having a good relationship with Putin.
7:15
But for Ukrainians, there is so much at stake.
7:19
We can see what President Putin is trying to do at the moment.
7:23
Obviously the Russians are trying to push the Ukrainians
7:27
out of Kirsk, which is the part of Russian territory that they
7:30
control, so that that isn't a bargaining trip.
7:33
They're trying to increase the territory that Russia controls
7:37
inside Ukraine, obviously. So they're so they're bargaining
7:41
from a position of strength. But the other thing that they're
7:44
doing, and we see all these diplomatic moves, is they're
7:46
trying to scare the West and NATO.
7:49
They're trying to say every time you send more weapons or you
7:52
allow the Ukrainians to their the weapons into Russia, that's
7:56
US against you. That's Russia against NATO,
7:59
that's Russia against the West. Don't do that.
8:02
That's dangerous for the for you.
8:03
You're escalating. We might use nuclear weapons,
8:06
all of this stuff. And part of the purpose of that
8:09
is to try and make this a battle between NATO, the West and
8:13
Russia in which Ukraine just gets squeezed and squashed in
8:16
between. Because we, we've just seen an
8:19
interview emerge today between the from the former Ukrainian
8:24
foreign minister who was saying, you know, this will probably
8:27
fail, you know, and he, he, he's not sure that Zelensky will
8:32
agree to giving up eastern Ukraine and Crimea.
8:36
And he's not certain that Putin actually wants a deal right now,
8:39
or needs one. Well, from President Putin's
8:42
point of view, he's, he thinks he's doing well.
8:46
He thinks that they are in the ascendant militarily, but they
8:49
have a lot of problems as well. As Hannah was saying, they have
8:52
military problems about losing people.
8:54
They also have a lot of economic problems.
8:57
But from the Ukrainian point of view, it's extremely, it's
9:00
extremely difficult. This country, small country in
9:05
terms of population, not in terms of size.
9:07
So many people have have sacrificed so much.
9:10
I was talking to a couple this morning who came from a place
9:14
called Topmac, which is now under Russian control and
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they've started a new business in Zaparisia where they've
9:20
they've moved, they lost everything and they lost their
9:22
son. Their 24 year old son was killed
9:26
quite early on in the war. What for?
9:29
They're not going to just say, oh, OK, you can take take the
9:33
land where we built our home, take the land for which our son
9:38
sacrificed his life. This is a very difficult sell to
9:42
the Ukrainian people from Zelensky in the Ukrainian
9:45
government. Anna, can you flesh that out a
9:49
little bit as well? Because you know you're as well
9:51
as being an analyst, you are personally affected by this war
9:54
in a very direct way. Yeah, that's true.
9:56
My thought being destroyed by the Russian Iranian Shahed just
9:59
a week ago. But here, you know, you need to
10:02
understand one important things that is not a classical conflict
10:05
in terms while two sides cannot resolve whose river that he is
10:09
or whose village that he is. Because 1 century it was this,
10:12
another was this or it is the mix of ethnic or something like
10:15
this. The territories we're talking
10:17
about without being always ethnically Ukrainian, always
10:20
being Ukraine, never being disputable territories.
10:23
Even more, when you go to the neighboring Russian region, they
10:27
speak Ukrainian dialogue. In course they speak, they're
10:30
speak so this ethnically, but we never like disputed about this
10:34
land. The history of the empire went
10:36
like this. That's why it's not something
10:38
that we are negotiating about some territory that maybe one
10:41
day belong this island to somebody else.
10:44
That's why for Ukrainians it will sacrifice, but also the
10:47
question why we should give something would always been
10:50
ours. So we need to understand that it
10:53
is not the conflict when two sides cannot decide to whom it
10:56
belongs. Now it doesn't matter how
10:58
complicated it is the clear act of aggression with the clear
11:02
intention to eliminate the people who don't want to be as
11:06
you and as you means be. Not just under the authoritarian
11:10
regime of Mr. Putin, but also in terms of the losing the history,
11:15
language and even religion. So that became, it's not about
11:19
nature, it's not about some territorial.
11:21
It is very much existential for Ukrainians.
11:24
So Ukrainians can be tired. I'm extremely tired.
11:27
I cannot work for two weeks normally with all my deadlines
11:31
because I need to think where I should live.
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Can I save anything from my flat or do you have anything to wear
11:36
where my family will sleep? But at the same time, this
11:40
tiredness, it is the normal tiredness of people that can be
11:45
after any hard working, but it doesn't mean that in this case
11:48
we're like stopping so. So do you think President
11:52
Zelensky actually has the authority and the mandate to
11:57
agree to any kind of sacrifice? That's the question.
12:01
You know, when originally we can't remember the negotiations,
12:04
that being in Belarus and Istanbul in spring 2022.
12:08
At that time Zelensky was ready to return back just to the
12:12
situation prayer, February 2022, he was ready to speak about
12:16
Crimea separately, but already after Butcher European, after
12:20
plenty of the genocidal acts of war crimes of the Russian
12:23
Federation, he received a mandate from the population that
12:28
we are fighting against this. We would like to return
12:31
everything back. And you can hear that in his
12:33
speeches and all the politicians.
12:35
It started in Crimea, each to finish in Crimea, meaning that
12:39
the Russian aggression started in 2014 in Crimea.
12:42
So only with the return back of all the territories and all
12:45
people, we will be able to do something that is more like the
12:49
national idea. As for now, definitely.
12:52
Now, depending with whom you're speaking, you can have different
12:55
opinions within the society. Should we just return to 2022 or
12:59
wait for something like negotiations?
13:01
It doesn't mean that we are rejecting these territories, but
13:04
maybe, let's say, different stages of negotiations.
13:07
If we give up any of the Ukrainian territories, it means
13:10
that we are rewarding Russia and Mr. Putin.
13:13
And if we are rewarding, we're encouraging for the future
13:16
attacks not only against Ukraine, but against the other
13:19
neighbors as well. But there is another way of
13:21
looking at, and I've, I've spoken to Ukrainians who look at
13:24
this slightly differently, who say, look, we're in a situation
13:28
where we are exhausted and we are losing territory.
13:31
So maybe we have to come to some kind of deal where we
13:34
temporarily sacrifice that that territory, that basically there
13:38
is an agreement that that territory, Donetsk, Luhansk,
13:42
possibly even Crimea remains under Russian control for a
13:46
certain period of time and there is some kind of peacekeeping
13:50
force and so on. But that the key thing is not
13:52
territory. The key thing is security
13:54
guarantees. Because what everyone I think
13:57
here fears more than anything else is Russia having time to
14:00
regroup, to rearm and then come back with an even more
14:06
devastating assault. So what is more important is
14:10
some kind of security guarantee from NATO and the possibility of
14:15
joining the European Union. And arguably, the borders of
14:19
Ukraine have changed over the years, more in the West than the
14:22
East. They have changed.
14:24
And people talk about Finland in the in the 1940s, that there are
14:29
ways that countries can change their borders.
14:31
But the key thing is that the Russians should not be able to
14:35
come back and attack again, that Ukraine should be under some
14:39
kind of NATO security umbrella and be able to move its economy
14:45
towards the West. That raises some difficult
14:47
questions for people in Britain, Lindsay as well, and France and
14:50
America and other NATO members, because what that security
14:53
guarantee might actually mean is troops on the ground in Ukraine,
14:59
next to Russia. It's very hard at this point to
15:03
imagine French, British, German, American.
15:08
I don't think so, not with Donald Trump troops in Ukraine.
15:11
I think that the one NATO country which might be able to
15:14
provide peacekeeping troops would be Turkey, because the
15:18
Turks and Erdogan I think is, I don't know if he's trusted, but
15:22
he is respected by both the Ukrainians and by and by
15:27
President Putin. But we're sort of getting ahead
15:29
of ourselves here on this. But I think the difficult thing
15:33
for Ukraine is what does it have to negotiate with?
15:36
I mean, the point that Hannah made, you know, this was an
15:39
aggression. There's no question about that.
15:42
You shouldn't, shouldn't reward aggression.
15:44
This. These are not disputed
15:45
territories. All of that I understand.
15:47
But it's about how you bring this war to an end, how you stop
15:50
the killing. And that's one reason I think
15:53
that some Ukrainians are willing to entertain the idea of
15:57
President Trump trying to impose some kind of solution, even if
16:01
it does involve territorial sacrifice.
16:05
I would probably add just one very important thing.
16:07
Let's not forget that the war started in 2014.
16:10
At that time, Ukraine was not allowed to fight back.
16:13
Originally, we've been persuaded by Washington not to fight for
16:16
Crimea. What we received in several
16:19
months is we received Donbas, the east of Ukraine.
16:21
Then we've been each time asked for the Minsk agreements to stop
16:24
fighting forever. What it brought us, it brought
16:28
us the fact maximum 2-3 days of ceasefire, then Russian attacks
16:33
constantly at the contact line and in several years a huge
16:37
total attack. So any type of this ceasefire
16:40
just for the ceasefire is not. We had the special monitoring
16:45
mission of the OEC, we had all these monitors, Russia been
16:48
ignoring them. So the Turkish or French,
16:51
British peacekeepers will not change anything if the Russian
16:54
goals are not changing and the facts of what Russia been doing
16:58
at those territories, why it's so dangerous to leave it under
17:01
the Russian protectorate? Only in Crimea Russia brought
17:04
1,000,000 of, I cannot say Russians, Russian citizens,
17:08
Yeah, because they of different Chechens, Russians, other ethnic
17:12
groups and changed the demographic situation each year.
17:15
the United Nations General Assembly being adopting
17:18
resolution condemning and asking Russia not to change demography.
17:22
What Russians are doing now only in town of Militopa.
17:25
It's approximately 100,000 of Russians that been there.
17:30
These people are thinking that it is their new territories.
17:33
These people have nothing with Ukraine.
17:36
They just decided that it's better to live in Ukraine than
17:38
in Russia. Very open.
17:40
People are buying in this city where so many people have been
17:44
killed, hundreds of thousands. They are buying houses because
17:47
it is near the seaside. And you can see how many
17:50
advertisements for the for bringing and Russia even
17:54
sponsoring such moves to these new territories as they call
17:58
what will be if we are living like this, you will just
18:01
eliminate the Ukrainian history and Ukrainian people from this
18:05
land. Let's just come back to the
18:06
question of what happens before we get to any negotiations,
18:10
which is escalation as things stand.
18:13
We've seen this new hypersonic missile that Russia has
18:16
deployed. Russia has also authorized a
18:19
massive increase in defence spending and the production of
18:23
more, more, more missiles. I mean, Lindsay, it raises the
18:27
question, you know, that, you know, if Russia has these kinds
18:31
of weapons, why isn't it just using them in greater numbers
18:35
now? Well, I think that, you know,
18:37
the other thing that President Putin did is that once again he
18:41
threatened to use a nuclear weapon and the this experimental
18:46
hypersonic missile that was directed here where I am at in
18:49
Denipro, it has 6 warheads. They were traditional, but it
18:54
can carry a nuclear warhead. But I see that as a message or a
18:58
threat to the West rather than to the Ukrainians.
19:01
And you have to remember that President Modi of India and more
19:04
importantly, President Xi Jinping of China has said to
19:07
Putin, that's a line you can't cross.
19:10
You cannot cross the nuclear line.
19:12
And I think that that is very significant.
19:14
And I don't think we should forget that.
19:16
And I don't think that the West should necessarily be
19:18
intimidated by that. But yeah, the the Russians are
19:22
also being strategic. And they're also trying to, you
19:25
know, when they fire, I mean, the last few days, I mean, I
19:29
think last night there was something like 88 drone strikes
19:33
or attempted drone strikes, No 188, nearly 200, you know, the
19:37
highest, the highest that there's ever been.
19:40
And that is about trying to get the Ukrainian people to be so
19:45
wary that they want to surrender, that they say to
19:47
Zelensky enough already, which I don't think is happening, but
19:51
that is what that is what they are trying to do.
19:53
And all this talk about the sort of higher, higher tech weaponry
19:58
and so on, that is more for Western consumption for
20:01
Ukrainians. These drones and the missiles
20:04
that they've got, they're bad enough.
20:06
Hannah, I mean, do you not fear that there could be a
20:10
significant escalation now that, you know, we're seeing this week
20:14
the use massive use of drones and that that can continue now
20:18
right up until Christmas? What has been significant
20:22
escalation for you? Everybody's speaking about the
20:25
escalation. I don't know what can be more
20:27
than what we're experiencing now.
20:29
It's always been like this one week.
20:32
Russians are striking a lot because they're accumulating
20:35
everything. They understand that it will be
20:37
more difficult for our air defense.
20:39
Then you have a calm week, for example.
20:41
Yeah. Or then you have attacks only
20:44
against summer hierarchy of Zaparisia and other parts of
20:47
Ukraine are safe. So that's more speaking about
20:51
the limited resources that they need to accumulate a big amount
20:54
of the certain type of the weapons to strike them.
20:57
And when they have, they're just striking several days in a row
21:00
because they understand that Ukraine also need to feel our
21:04
storage of air defense systems. That's why they're usually doing
21:08
it 2-3 days in a row or touching the particular aims in the
21:12
different cities. So here it's nothing new for me
21:16
what Russians are doing with the Hippersonic.
21:18
They need to demonstrate and to escalate in terms of their
21:22
rhetoric, because each time they're saying we can use, we
21:25
can use, we can use, we change our nuclear doctrine, we did
21:28
this. People are already not reacting
21:31
to this because they understand that there are limitations about
21:34
which Lindsay said. So they needed a next level.
21:37
They need certain proof that their language is not about
21:40
this. But if you look to this new type
21:42
of the weapon, not new, it's not something that they can start
21:46
producing in mass. They don't have capacity for
21:48
these. Then most importantly, they
21:50
don't have a spare parts for these.
21:51
And Lindsay, what about manpower on both sides?
21:55
You know, but both sides have have have suffered horrific
21:58
losses, both in terms of injuries and deaths.
22:02
And we're seeing obviously the use of more than 10,000 North
22:05
Korean troops in support of the Russians.
22:09
Can they keep supplying men to the front?
22:13
Look, and this is a different problem, I think on the two
22:16
sides from the Russian point of view.
22:18
I mean, they they fight a kind of warfare which in a sense they
22:22
always have historically, which pays very little attention to
22:25
human life. They don't really care how many
22:28
people are lost and they are losing, you know, 10s of
22:32
thousands. They've they've lost hundreds of
22:33
thousands. And yes, that is why they have
22:36
brought in these North Korean troops.
22:38
But one of the things that I think is fascinating is is how
22:42
they're paying the families and how they're paying the the
22:45
soldiers. So soldiers now are the highest
22:48
earners in Russia. And if you lose a son to this
22:53
war, you get paid a very large amount of compensation by by
22:57
Russian standards. And in the parts of Russia which
23:00
have supplied a lot of soldiers, like Borati, apparently, you
23:03
know, lots of new houses are going up and so on.
23:05
So it totally distorts the the economy.
23:09
On this side. You have a totally different
23:11
problem, which is that the people who wanted to volunteer
23:14
and you talk about men and they are mainly men, but I've met
23:17
some some women soldiers as as well.
23:19
There's some pretty extraordinary Ukrainian women
23:22
fighting on the frontline. But the ones who want to fight
23:27
already fighting and they are exhausted.
23:30
And now, I mean, I was talking to somebody the other day.
23:33
His name's on the list. He knows that he could be called
23:36
up at any time. And if he's called up, he'll go,
23:39
but he's not going to volunteer. He'll wait until he's called up.
23:42
And there are stories of the call up not going very well, the
23:46
people being taken off the streets and other people.
23:49
You know, there's corruption. People can bribe their way out
23:53
of being sent to the to the front line.
23:56
And you've got a fundamental problem, which is that you have
23:59
a country of 40 million or so, which is Ukraine against a
24:04
country of 140 million or so. So Russia will always have more
24:10
available soldiers than Ukraine will, and that is very difficult
24:14
for Ukraine. Anna.
24:18
Yes, I mean that that's definitely 40 million again, 140
24:21
that's quite a problematic and especially when Russians are
24:24
able to bring the foreign fighters and we had only
24:27
volunteers in the international legal those who traveled in the
24:31
beginning of the war to to join. But that is the reason why
24:34
Ukraine since the day one is trying to play this game
24:38
asymmetrical. We understand that that's why we
24:41
need better Western weapons. It's not just because you are
24:45
our allies, but because we understand that attacks is much
24:48
better than any of the Russian missile that F16 is better.
24:52
So we can prevail not by losing people.
24:55
Russia is losing their manpower. We would like to use the
24:58
weapons, not our manpower, to be killed on the grounds and to
25:03
have the upper hands. We need to understand that if
25:06
Russia is not in the world with Ukraine, they already consider
25:09
that they're in the war with NATO, with Western everybody.
25:12
So you cannot sit in Berlin or London or Washington and say, Oh
25:16
no, I have just my Thanksgiving Turkey and we'll have a nice
25:20
evening while you have the war there.
25:22
Because Russia's already fighting you and you just never
25:24
know when it will direct target you.
25:27
Just finally, let me ask you both.
25:29
I mean, perhaps not day one, as Donald Trump promised, but from
25:33
where you're sitting right now, does it feel like the end is
25:37
insight? Hannah, you go first.
25:42
You know, Ukrainians are the first one who are ready to
25:45
finish this war tomorrow and that's should be understandable
25:48
because when we accuse that we are crazy militarized people,
25:51
that is the most offensive things probably that is
25:54
possible. We are just defending ourselves.
25:56
So if it is the proper deal on the table, Ukrainians are ready
26:00
and open to any type of the negotiations.
26:03
The question is what? We are not ready.
26:05
We are not ready to surrender. And Ukrainians never surrounded
26:08
in the history. For this.
26:09
You need to understand our history and our mentality.
26:14
For Russia to stop this war, they need just one call of Mr.
26:17
Putin and decision by him. But what can persuade him?
26:21
And if Mr. Trump has anything to persuade him, that is a big
26:26
question for me because it seems to me that now we're in the
26:29
stage when he became that much paranoid that his decisions are
26:33
irrational. 9 of the pragmatic proposals from the Washington
26:37
would satisfy him because he just need to demonstrate that
26:41
everything was not in vain. Lindsay.
26:45
Am I quoting, am I quoting Churchill when I say if not the
26:48
end, the beginning of the end, something like that?
26:51
I think we're moving, definitely moving into a different phase.
26:54
And the answer is we don't really know because we don't
26:56
know what President Trump is going to do.
26:58
He says he can bring this war to an end in 24 hours.
27:01
We know that's not true. But what we don't know is will
27:05
he look at it and say, well, actually, you know, this is
27:07
rather good for American weapons companies.
27:10
Lockheed Martin and so on are doing very well out of So maybe
27:13
his idea that he's not going to send any more weapons, maybe
27:16
that won't be true after all. Marco Rubio, who is his
27:20
Secretary of State, is quite pro Ukrainian, whereas JD Vance, his
27:25
vice president, has basically said that's the end.
27:28
We don't want to support Ukraine anymore.
27:31
So there's an awful lot of, I'm quoting Rumsfeld now, unknown
27:35
knowns and known unknowns and all of that.
27:38
But I think we're definitely moving into a different phase.
27:42
But even if Russia were to claim victory at a certain point next
27:47
year, I don't think that means that Ukraine will give up.
27:50
I think that it means that Ukraine will continue to fight
27:54
in this asymmetric way and in a different way.
27:57
And I'm afraid that I think that if Ukraine feels it's come out
28:00
best, then I don't think that that's necessarily over for
28:02
Russia either, because Russia, I think, will keep pushing.
28:06
So we're entering a different phase.
28:08
But I'm afraid I don't think that this war is going to be
28:11
over completely for a long time. Yes, and, and, and just let me
28:14
put you one scenario I've also heard, which is that if Zelensky
28:19
is resistant towards any kind of deal and Donald Trump feels that
28:23
he has to follow through on his threats to cut American aid,
28:29
then the then the, the, the solution might be that Europe
28:32
effectively pays American weapons companies to keep
28:37
supplying those weapons. And that will become an
28:41
incredibly large financial burden on Europe that it is not
28:45
prepared for. That it's not prepared for.
28:47
And we, you know, there is no real government in Germany at
28:51
the moment. And Germany obviously is one of
28:53
the most important countries. And then France and Britain have
28:56
important, you know, weapons producing companies themselves.
29:00
But yes, that is one of the things that that's being talked
29:03
about. But that, you know, if
29:07
President-elect Trump is talking about that, he's talking about a
29:09
whole reorientation of of NATO and of pulling back from NATO.
29:14
And then again, that puts Putin in an advantageous situation if
29:19
if he sees NATO being no longer united and therefore being much
29:24
weaker. So I think that that is a great
29:26
danger for Europe and for Ukraine.
29:29
Hannah and Lindsay, thank you both very much indeed.
29:32
That was this week's political forecast.
29:34
Until next time, bye bye.