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P&L: The Biggest Risk Is a Trade War, Nick Sargen Says · Bloomberg Intelligence

0:04
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg P and L Podcast. I'm Pim Fox.
0:08
Speaker 1: Along with my co host Lisa Abramowitz. Each day we
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Speaker 1: bring you the most important, noteworthy, and useful interviews for
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Speaker 1: you and your money, whether you're at the grocery store
0:16
Speaker 1: or the trading floor. Find the Bloomberg P L Podcast
0:20
Speaker 1: on iTunes, SoundCloud and at Bloomberg dot com. It is
0:30
Speaker 1: time for me to talk about my favorite subject, potential
0:33
Speaker 1: market catastrophes. I really like to sort of think about
0:37
Speaker 1: the potential iterations of what could unfold. Somebody once said
0:40
Speaker 1: to me, you should should have start something called catastrophe corner.
0:43
Speaker 1: But here with me to to sort of join me
0:44
Speaker 1: in my catastrophe corner is Nick Sargeant, chief economist at
0:48
Speaker 1: Fort Washington investment advisor and author of the new book
0:51
Speaker 1: Global Shocks. One of the things that you take a
0:55
Speaker 1: look at, that you are looking at right now is
0:58
Speaker 1: whether Donald Trump, the next president of the United States,
1:01
Speaker 1: will be a global stock. So will he be? UM?
1:04
Speaker 1: And I think the answer is to be determined. UM.
1:07
Speaker 1: I think his policies have the potential to be transformative
1:13
Speaker 1: as Ronald Reagan's work. So what do I mean by that? UM?
1:16
Speaker 1: Big tax cuts, but also you don't have spending under control.
1:21
Speaker 1: So the good news the market likes tax cuts deregulation.
1:25
Speaker 1: The bad news is outsized budget deficits. And the biggest
1:29
Speaker 1: difference though in the Reagan era was interest rates. He
1:33
Speaker 1: inherited record high rates thanks to him and the Fed,
1:37
Speaker 1: they brought down inflation, so um interest bond yields declined,
1:42
Speaker 1: but after adjusting for inflation, they actually rose in real terms.
1:46
Speaker 1: So the difference today with Trump is easy inheriting record
1:49
Speaker 1: low rates. And so what I see is the potential
1:53
Speaker 1: for significantly higher bond yields and a super strong dollar,
1:58
Speaker 1: which will make it harder for him to contain trade. Well,
2:02
Speaker 1: here's here's what I'm wondering. I mean, the market is
2:05
Speaker 1: pricing in a lot of hypotheticals right now. It's been
2:07
Speaker 1: very hard to sort of understand the moves and sort
2:10
Speaker 1: of whether they are long term or very short term.
2:13
Speaker 1: Knee jerk. As we were talking about offline, how much
2:16
Speaker 1: control does does President elect Trump really have? I mean,
2:19
Speaker 1: can't the market get ahead of him before he does anything? Oh? Absolutely?
2:23
Speaker 1: And that's why I say, you know, I think right now, um,
2:27
Speaker 1: when I ask the direction of the moves. Um, it
2:32
Speaker 1: was a surprise outcome for me, So I have to
2:34
Speaker 1: scrap what I had written before and said, well, wait
2:36
Speaker 1: a minute, Um, if this is the case, what would
2:38
Speaker 1: I expect. The easy call for me was higher bond yields,
2:41
Speaker 1: stronger dollar, I said, stock market people are gonna like
2:45
Speaker 1: tax cuts, so I can see that going up. But
2:49
Speaker 1: what you know, to your point, what I think they're
2:52
Speaker 1: not thinking is second round effects. Uh, we've had six
2:57
Speaker 1: consecutive quarters of profits declining or flat. So if he
3:03
Speaker 1: can't turn that around overnight, and if suddenly I wake
3:06
Speaker 1: up and I've got significantly higher bond deals to me,
3:11
Speaker 1: the market then is vulnerable to a correction. And how
3:14
Speaker 1: long do we see? How long does the market give
3:17
Speaker 1: Trump to see? You know, as Leasa pointed out, all
3:20
Speaker 1: of us is rhetoric right now. We don't know what's
3:22
Speaker 1: going to happen, So how long until we make those
3:24
Speaker 1: judgments or do we just kind of you know, bet here,
3:27
Speaker 1: bet here, bet here, kind of hedge against everything. Yeah,
3:31
Speaker 1: that's great question. I don't have the answer, but here's
3:34
Speaker 1: what I'm looking for. You don't have anything right now.
3:37
Speaker 1: Everything's clay, it's putty. It can be changed. The most
3:42
Speaker 1: important decision is going to be who's his secretary of Treasury.
3:45
Speaker 1: What is his secretary of the Treasury say, because on
3:48
Speaker 1: his campaign, which I heard and I was in New York,
3:52
Speaker 1: he's talking massive tax cuts and spending increases, and I'm
3:58
Speaker 1: sure every advisor, I'm sure con Ris is going to say,
4:00
Speaker 1: Mr President, with all due respect, he can't do that,
4:04
Speaker 1: and so then he may scale back. So I would
4:07
Speaker 1: say to you, I want to see a plan in place,
4:11
Speaker 1: and you're not going to see that until you've got
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Speaker 1: the new Secretary of the Treasury to work with him.
4:17
Speaker 1: So in the meantime, I think we're in limbo land. Well,
4:19
Speaker 1: when you talk about a global shock, I want to
4:21
Speaker 1: go back to your book. Uh, what is the sort
4:24
Speaker 1: of transmission mechanism here? Because the last one it was
4:27
Speaker 1: the financial sector. What is it going to be this time?
4:30
Speaker 1: You know, they all play out differently. Most people this time,
4:35
Speaker 1: even before Trump would say, is the bond market a bubble?
4:39
Speaker 1: You know we have these record low interest rates. Um,
4:42
Speaker 1: I'm an economist. I say that can't continue forever. So
4:47
Speaker 1: you know you were anticipating could there be some development,
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Speaker 1: could it be higher inflation, stronger growth, whatever, um. But
4:54
Speaker 1: I would say, Lisa, if that was what I was
4:57
Speaker 1: talking about, then I would say, you know what, that's
5:00
Speaker 1: going to be a sell off. But I don't put
5:03
Speaker 1: it in the category of catastrophe of crisis. So what
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Speaker 1: I'm basically saying is, to me, the thing I'm most
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Speaker 1: concerned about is the potential for a trade war that
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Speaker 1: is not priced into the market. Now again, hold on
5:18
Speaker 1: a second. You said it's not priced into the into
5:20
Speaker 1: the market. What would you have to see for a
5:22
Speaker 1: trade war to be price into the market. I think again,
5:24
Speaker 1: what people are waiting to see with Donald Trump? He's
5:28
Speaker 1: a self described negotiator. So is he going to talk
5:31
Speaker 1: tough with Mexico with China and then say I want
5:36
Speaker 1: to scare them and I'm going to get better concessions
5:39
Speaker 1: out of them. If that were the case, I'd be okay.
5:42
Speaker 1: But if we get to the point where he takes action,
5:46
Speaker 1: whether or NAFTA, whether um, whether um, you know, on
5:50
Speaker 1: the RMB, declaring it, you know, manipulative currency and I'm
5:53
Speaker 1: going to impose tariffs, that's when the market would react.
5:57
Speaker 1: So it's actions speak louder than words. With the market react, Oh,
6:01
Speaker 1: Martin would sell off the scary you know. UM, here's
6:06
Speaker 1: again what I think is interesting. I listened to Donald Trump,
6:10
Speaker 1: and UM, I understand his his domestic policies on the
6:13
Speaker 1: on the international policies. He comes from the school of
6:17
Speaker 1: thinking called mercantil is. Um, if you have a trade deficit,
6:20
Speaker 1: it's bad. If you have a trade surplus, it's good.
6:23
Speaker 1: That's the story. There winners, there's losers. And so what
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Speaker 1: I'm saying that concerns me is the type of policies
6:30
Speaker 1: that we're pursuing because we saw it on the Reagan
6:33
Speaker 1: will expand the trade deficit, but will blame the foreigner
6:37
Speaker 1: for it. Nick Sargeant, thank you so much for being
6:39
Speaker 1: with us. Nick Sargeant, chief Economist. Right now, I'm looking
6:51
Speaker 1: at a thirty year treasury yield that is at the
6:53
Speaker 1: highest since December of last year. It has exceeded three
6:59
Speaker 1: once again, this is the big question, and here we
7:02
Speaker 1: have Lacey Hunt to answer at Lacy Hunt is chief
7:06
Speaker 1: economist at Hoisington's Investment management company. UM, is a long
7:11
Speaker 1: bond is that I'll just gonna keep rising here. Well,
7:14
Speaker 1: anything that happened over the short run. Um. But my
7:18
Speaker 1: view is that rates can go up for any number
7:21
Speaker 1: of variety of reasons, just as we've seen in a
7:24
Speaker 1: very vicious fashion over the over the day since the
7:28
Speaker 1: end of the election. But the economy is too fundamentally
7:31
Speaker 1: weak for the rates to stay up well, I mean,
7:34
Speaker 1: so here, what's the big thinking behind uh the significant
7:37
Speaker 1: rise in rates is basically that people are expecting that
7:41
Speaker 1: a combination of President elect Trump's trade policies along with
7:46
Speaker 1: his infrastructure spending will spur market increases in consumer prices
7:50
Speaker 1: that will force the Fed to raise rates UH faster
7:54
Speaker 1: than they had expected. That people are pricing in UM.
7:57
Speaker 1: It would also lead to people to demand how our
8:00
Speaker 1: yields just to compensate them to offset the inflation risk?
8:03
Speaker 1: Is that what's going on here is this selling from
8:05
Speaker 1: foreign investors. I don't Foreign investors don't hold long bonds.
8:10
Speaker 1: If you look at the treasuries study of the foreign
8:12
Speaker 1: ownership of the treasuries UM, foreign investors only have six
8:17
Speaker 1: percent of their holdings and ten year securities are longer.
8:20
Speaker 1: They own a lot of short paper builds in two
8:23
Speaker 1: year notes, three year notes, that's their holdings are. Yeah,
8:27
Speaker 1: the long bond is a domestic market has been always
8:30
Speaker 1: and the and the one the foreign investors that hold
8:34
Speaker 1: the tenure in older paper are the big European insurance
8:38
Speaker 1: companies who have dollar based liabilities, then they're they're not
8:41
Speaker 1: hot players. Um, what we've seen in here is a
8:45
Speaker 1: massive rush to judgment. And there is a presumption that
8:50
Speaker 1: sounds biblical that biblical times we're seeing a rush to
8:56
Speaker 1: judgment in the treasure market. What is that judgment? What
8:59
Speaker 1: we've seen that we've seen this before. When when when
9:02
Speaker 1: President Obama and bailed his one trillion dollar stimulus that
9:06
Speaker 1: was assumed to be highly inflationary is going to lead
9:08
Speaker 1: to a boom, fond yells would rise, the dollar would collapse. UM,
9:13
Speaker 1: when quantitative easing one was announced, UH saw the same pattern.
9:17
Speaker 1: Quantitative to markets presume that they understand the complexities of
9:22
Speaker 1: the macroeconomics. And the fact of the matter is that
9:26
Speaker 1: um that that deficit spending actually carries a negative multiplier,
9:32
Speaker 1: It contracts the economy, doesn't croyd. This is this is
9:35
Speaker 1: the big debate to me, and I'm so glad that
9:38
Speaker 1: you raised this because you know, people say this is
9:40
Speaker 1: going to finally ignite inflation. This is what we've been
9:43
Speaker 1: waiting for. We're waiting, We've been waiting for the fiscal stimulus,
9:46
Speaker 1: and then you have people like yourself who are telling me, yeah,
9:49
Speaker 1: deficit spending actually has the opposite effect. It hampers growth
9:53
Speaker 1: in the long run. So what's going to have to
9:56
Speaker 1: happen for markets to wake up to that reality? Or
9:59
Speaker 1: is that a controvers sial issue. I mean it is
10:00
Speaker 1: a controversial issue. Some people would disagree. Well, it's hard
10:05
Speaker 1: to know when the markets UH will focus on the
10:09
Speaker 1: long run fundamentals. That's why I don't try to do it.
10:12
Speaker 1: We had Poisington Management. We we look on we key
10:16
Speaker 1: our investments on the long run trend and inflation. And
10:19
Speaker 1: the most critical factor is to look at what's happening
10:24
Speaker 1: to the rate of growth and money supply and the
10:27
Speaker 1: velocity of money. They're equal partners in in this stance.
10:32
Speaker 1: And money supply growth has been right at its one
10:36
Speaker 1: year average, one years average. Nothing has happened there. But
10:40
Speaker 1: but the velocity of money has fallen to a six
10:43
Speaker 1: quarter low. It's only one point four four. It's the
10:46
Speaker 1: lowest UH in modern times really except for right after
10:51
Speaker 1: World War Two. Now, the velocity of money is influenced
10:55
Speaker 1: by a lot of factors, but the most important of
10:58
Speaker 1: which is the productivity of our debt, and the productivity
11:03
Speaker 1: of our debt is increasingly worse. Another, it's not doing
11:08
Speaker 1: enough with our debt to actually stimulate gross And give
11:10
Speaker 1: you a couple of numbers. From nineteen fifty one, one
11:15
Speaker 1: dollar and seventy cents of new debt generated one dollar
11:18
Speaker 1: of GDP. From from to two thousand, it took three
11:24
Speaker 1: dollars and thirty cents of debt to generate one dollar
11:27
Speaker 1: of GDP. Last year, last four quarters, I should say
11:32
Speaker 1: we took on two point two trallion dollars of debt.
11:36
Speaker 1: Our GDP was only a four fifty billion, So it
11:39
Speaker 1: took nearly five dollars of new debt to generate one
11:43
Speaker 1: dollar of GDP. Now, and why is that because because
11:48
Speaker 1: the debt is basically financing consumption, it's financing things that
11:52
Speaker 1: will not generate an income stream to repay principle and interest. Okay, well,
11:56
Speaker 1: let's let's talk about the number that I'm staying. We've stopped.
11:58
Speaker 1: You've got to let me finish here. The critical point is,
12:03
Speaker 1: in this rush to judgment, you've had a massive increase
12:07
Speaker 1: in the long term rates, not just in the United
12:09
Speaker 1: States but worldwide and even even a greater rising in
12:12
Speaker 1: the emerging markets. And this rate rise has occurred everywhere,
12:17
Speaker 1: and you've seen in a lot of countries where UH
12:19
Speaker 1: interest rates that were negative gone positive. And at the
12:22
Speaker 1: same time, there hasn't been a dramatic surge in the dollar.
12:26
Speaker 1: Dollar is it a fourth junior high unprecedentedly high? Well,
12:31
Speaker 1: the surgeon long term rates UH encourages more saving, less spending,
12:37
Speaker 1: that puts downward pressure on velocity that is already declining precipitously.
12:43
Speaker 1: In addition, the surge and the dollar will serve to
12:48
Speaker 1: bring into the United States a wide range of lower
12:51
Speaker 1: costs goods, and it will cost domestic firms profits when
12:55
Speaker 1: they convert their foreign earnings back into dollars. It will
12:58
Speaker 1: cost them market are at home and abroad. And so
13:02
Speaker 1: the events of the last several days are our giant
13:06
Speaker 1: constraining action that will put both downward pressure on the
13:10
Speaker 1: radar growth and money and ready the growth and velocity.
13:13
Speaker 1: And so in essence, what we've seen is there has
13:17
Speaker 1: been a massive market tightening of monetary conditions. Massive and
13:23
Speaker 1: so when the tax cut takes effect, if it does
13:25
Speaker 1: take effect in a timely manner, that's something we really
13:28
Speaker 1: don't know. It's quite possible that the markets have already
13:32
Speaker 1: negated its effectiveness. And if you go back and look
13:36
Speaker 1: at the at the Reagan tax cuts, UM, the conditions
13:42
Speaker 1: were a lot different, a lot a lot different. First
13:45
Speaker 1: of all, debt, government debt was fifty GDP, not a
13:49
Speaker 1: hundred and seven. And we had favorable demographics. We have
13:54
Speaker 1: very unfavorable to the birthrates the lowest spend. We have
13:58
Speaker 1: a huge percentage our households uh in the of our
14:02
Speaker 1: of our youngsters in court living at home. The demographics
14:07
Speaker 1: are not good. And also when Reagan tax cuts took effect, UM,
14:13
Speaker 1: monetary policy was working in tandem. Monetary policy has to
14:17
Speaker 1: be supportive, not adversarial. And and that's that's the markets
14:22
Speaker 1: have made sure that the beginning is very adversarial. Lacy Hunt,
14:26
Speaker 1: thank you so much for being with us. Lacy Hunt,
14:28
Speaker 1: chief economist at Hoysington's Investment Management. Looking at the long bond,
14:31
Speaker 1: it is down almost seven percent so far in November.
14:36
Speaker 1: I'm Lisa Brown Boys here with Shelley Banjo, my co
14:39
Speaker 1: host Pim Fox on vacation. This is per blah blah blah.
14:52
Speaker 1: That's how a renowned economist summed up the state of
14:56
Speaker 1: macro economics. I'm Lisa Brown Boys I'm here with my
14:59
Speaker 1: co host for the day, Shelley Banjo pim Fox. My
15:03
Speaker 1: co host is on vacation and we'll be back in
15:07
Speaker 1: about a week. So, Shelly, this story caught my eye.
15:10
Speaker 1: I thought that it was so interesting because it just
15:13
Speaker 1: highlights some of the frankly what people say behind closed
15:17
Speaker 1: doors or in private conversations, which is macro economics have
15:21
Speaker 1: gotten has gotten it so wrong, And then one of
15:23
Speaker 1: their own came out and said it very publicly. Uh,
15:27
Speaker 1: I want to bring in one of the authors of
15:28
Speaker 1: this story, Craig TORUS Economy and Federal Reserve reporter at Bloomberg.
15:34
Speaker 1: What kind of response have you gotten from this story,
15:36
Speaker 1: Craig Ey, Lisa, Hi, Shelley. It's funny, but economists love it.
15:43
Speaker 1: Why they like to sort of bend at each other
15:46
Speaker 1: because it's just like what you said, right, They all
15:48
Speaker 1: knew that the house was burning down, and and but
15:51
Speaker 1: nobody really wanted to say it. So walk us through
15:54
Speaker 1: the sort of what made Paul Romer, who was had
15:59
Speaker 1: a in as the World banks next chief economist when
16:02
Speaker 1: he wrote this paper? Why did he write this paper
16:04
Speaker 1: that essentially tore down macro economics. So he said he
16:07
Speaker 1: had a like a space and a journal that he
16:09
Speaker 1: had to fill and um, so he's going to write something.
16:14
Speaker 1: And then he saw a movie about scientology, and so
16:19
Speaker 1: it started to make him think, well, you know, maybe
16:22
Speaker 1: macro is a bit of a personality quote as well.
16:25
Speaker 1: With all these schools of economists, you know, um, the
16:28
Speaker 1: Robert Lucas school of Rational expectations and real business cycle
16:32
Speaker 1: theory versus the Kynesians, and then he started to think,
16:37
Speaker 1: you know, these guys are so busy arguing among themselves
16:40
Speaker 1: and devising these big, intricate mathematical models that they've entered
16:44
Speaker 1: what he calls post real economics. Love that that's the
16:48
Speaker 1: best description ever. Um. You know, this story reminds me
16:53
Speaker 1: of back when I went to business school and the
16:55
Speaker 1: people who were started rewriting a macro economics books after
16:59
Speaker 1: two tho Nate, they were doing full rewrites of textbooks.
17:03
Speaker 1: I mean, what happened to that? What? What didn't this
17:05
Speaker 1: debate kind of unfold in two thousand and eight? Why
17:08
Speaker 1: the why the big shock now with this with this um,
17:11
Speaker 1: you know, rummer scandal. So what economists didn't really have
17:17
Speaker 1: in those models were things like financial markets, and I
17:21
Speaker 1: think so, uh, you know, I spent a year in
17:23
Speaker 1: business school too, and actually this idea of Robert Lucas
17:28
Speaker 1: Nobel Prize winning economists from University of Chicago was very powerful.
17:32
Speaker 1: It said, whatever government does, it kind of is ineffective
17:37
Speaker 1: because consumers anticipated and um and they adjust and businesses anticipated.
17:44
Speaker 1: But if you think about ordinary life, um uh, you know,
17:49
Speaker 1: often as rational as we are, we we make mistakes.
17:54
Speaker 1: And one area where you could see this is um
17:58
Speaker 1: a book I read and I like a lot called
18:00
Speaker 1: Deep Survival, which studies how accidents occur. Let's take a
18:05
Speaker 1: group of climbers in Yosemite and they say, you know,
18:09
Speaker 1: it's a beautiful day, we're going to go up the
18:10
Speaker 1: wall of El Capitan, and the weather forecast is perfect.
18:15
Speaker 1: But then something changes, like well they didn't really research
18:19
Speaker 1: the weather enough, their expectations were flawed or the weather
18:23
Speaker 1: model was flawed, and then they get trapped up there
18:25
Speaker 1: and they're in serious trouble. So you could say, you know,
18:29
Speaker 1: whatever it is, subprime or the kind of odd things
18:33
Speaker 1: that happen in human behavior. Those models don't incorporate that
18:37
Speaker 1: at all. They don't plan for them, and you get
18:40
Speaker 1: these explosions that are completely unexpected. Well, and I love
18:44
Speaker 1: the line that you quoted of his paper, assume a
18:47
Speaker 1: assumed b blah blah blah, and so we have proven
18:49
Speaker 1: that p is true. Um, you know, on one hand,
18:52
Speaker 1: it's comical. And as you said, you know, people kind
18:54
Speaker 1: of evolve been talking about this, uh, you know, not
18:58
Speaker 1: in private, right, in private conversation. But this, really BAC
19:00
Speaker 1: economics have has a much broader effect. I mean, if
19:03
Speaker 1: you think about the Federal Reserve or other central banks,
19:05
Speaker 1: I mean they base a lot of their policies on
19:07
Speaker 1: macroeconomic theory. Right. That's why I think this is interesting.
19:11
Speaker 1: Is right now this year is a matter of fact,
19:13
Speaker 1: we're seeing none other than Janet Yellen start to talk
19:17
Speaker 1: about the flaws of what economists call representative agent models.
19:22
Speaker 1: So in these models, they have household a and business
19:26
Speaker 1: be and those households representative households and business. You know,
19:31
Speaker 1: representative business will always respond to a price or an
19:35
Speaker 1: interest rate in this way. And what she said in
19:38
Speaker 1: October at a Boston Fed conferences, we need to look
19:42
Speaker 1: underneath the hood and ask ourselves are various cohorts are
19:46
Speaker 1: young people responding that way, our savers responding, how are
19:50
Speaker 1: they responding? I think that's very healthy. You mean to
19:53
Speaker 1: actually think about facts and and maybe it's cross check
19:57
Speaker 1: it with reality. Um Craig torres thank you so much
20:01
Speaker 1: for speaking with a S. Creig Touris Economy and Federal
20:03
Speaker 1: Reserve reporter for Bloomberg coming to us from Washington, d C.
20:07
Speaker 1: About blah blah blah Black Friday. We're getting closer, so
20:19
Speaker 1: we need to talk about it, all about it, which
20:21
Speaker 1: we expect. With us, we have Tom McKee, CEO of
20:24
Speaker 1: the International Council of Shopping Centers. You know what's gonna happen.
20:28
Speaker 1: What's gonna happen? Are we gonna be talking on the
20:30
Speaker 1: Monday after the Saturday after Black Friday that it was
20:33
Speaker 1: the best ever and that it saved the retail sector?
20:35
Speaker 1: Always the best ever? I wish I knew everything that
20:39
Speaker 1: was going to happen, but I do think we'll be
20:40
Speaker 1: talking the following Monday and saying it was a very
20:43
Speaker 1: good Black Friday and holiday weekend. We just recently did
20:47
Speaker 1: a survey. We expect about a hundred and fifty million
20:50
Speaker 1: Americans to go shopping over the Thanksgiving Day holiday, which
20:54
Speaker 1: is you know, which is clearly strong. Uh you know,
20:56
Speaker 1: Black Friday is kind of instituted in our American psyche.
21:01
Speaker 1: I think is A is a big part of the
21:03
Speaker 1: holiday weekend. Our survey Consumer Survey I indicated that holiday
21:09
Speaker 1: sales overall will increase about three point three. They're going
21:12
Speaker 1: to be winners and losers. Retail is a fiercely competitive business. Actually,
21:18
Speaker 1: I think that I think the retailers that will win
21:22
Speaker 1: are really I'm not gonna give your names, but I
21:23
Speaker 1: think it's I think omni channel retailers will win. I
21:26
Speaker 1: think what's happening in retail, and which is often kind
21:29
Speaker 1: of an untold story. And I know, Shelly, you cover
21:31
Speaker 1: the industry a lot, is you know, we tend to
21:35
Speaker 1: position the industry in bricks and mortars versus online, and
21:38
Speaker 1: I think that's really kind of an antiquated, uh you
21:41
Speaker 1: know comparison. I think what's really happening is technology is
21:44
Speaker 1: being integrated into shopping, just like it's been integrated into
21:46
Speaker 1: every part of American life. And I think those retailers
21:49
Speaker 1: that have an integrated omni channel experience over the long
21:53
Speaker 1: run will do much better. In fact, you know, our
21:55
Speaker 1: surveys would indicate that the vast majority people will shop
21:59
Speaker 1: at omni channel retailers. An omni channel of course, being
22:03
Speaker 1: both digital and people that retailers that have a presence
22:07
Speaker 1: online and in the physical space. And I think what
22:08
Speaker 1: you're another, I think untold story is a lot of
22:11
Speaker 1: online only retailers are moving into the physical space, and
22:15
Speaker 1: so that will create additional demand. Even Amazon, you know,
22:19
Speaker 1: is announcing opening up two thousand grocery stores, etcetera. So
22:22
Speaker 1: when was when was the survey conducted? Was this pre election? Now?
22:27
Speaker 1: The Black Friday survey was was posted? Was post election?
22:30
Speaker 1: And so did you the kind was three? Was pre election?
22:34
Speaker 1: Did you guys see anything that surprised you that came
22:37
Speaker 1: from any kind of election showing up there? No, I mean,
22:41
Speaker 1: I don't think I could attribute any of the findings
22:43
Speaker 1: directly to the election. I think, obviously, you know, there's
22:46
Speaker 1: a level of uncertainty that's been removed from the economy
22:49
Speaker 1: and from consumer psyche relative the conclusion the election. But
22:52
Speaker 1: as you know, I mean, last month's retail sales were
22:55
Speaker 1: pretty strong, uh, and that happened in the midst of
22:57
Speaker 1: the election season. So I think just generally a king
23:00
Speaker 1: we're in an environment where you know, incomes have improved,
23:03
Speaker 1: the job markets improved. Obviously all of us want the
23:06
Speaker 1: economy be stronger, but I think we are in a
23:08
Speaker 1: better place today than we were a year ago. Tom,
23:11
Speaker 1: What am I going to get for the holidays? I mean,
23:13
Speaker 1: what are people buying? Are they going to be buying? Uh,
23:16
Speaker 1: you know, clothes? Are they buying? Uh? They buying new blenders,
23:20
Speaker 1: they buying juicers? Like what they want? It's the holidays, right,
23:23
Speaker 1: So I think that, you know, if you look at historically,
23:27
Speaker 1: and I think our survey results would align with what
23:29
Speaker 1: historically happens. And electronics are always popular. Toys are always popular.
23:32
Speaker 1: I mean it's holidays. Apparel is going to be popular
23:36
Speaker 1: because it is always popular. Gift Cards are also, you know,
23:39
Speaker 1: a big expenditure during the holiday season because people give
23:43
Speaker 1: gifts and they don't exactly what are lazy. They don't
23:45
Speaker 1: want to actually have to pick anything out for somebody else.
23:48
Speaker 1: They just exactly say time you go return it. I mean,
23:53
Speaker 1: come on, I don't know you or Picky, I understand that,
23:57
Speaker 1: but as the mother of two young children, the idea
24:00
Speaker 1: of then you're not going to give your kids gift cards.
24:02
Speaker 1: You're getting by them. They would love they would love that.
24:05
Speaker 1: So it has the importance of Black Friday diminished over time?
24:09
Speaker 1: I think that. I think symbolically Black Friday is still
24:13
Speaker 1: really important in the American psyche and as we evaluate
24:17
Speaker 1: the retail industry, I think, however, when you look at
24:20
Speaker 1: the holiday shopping season, it's really become longer. It's become
24:24
Speaker 1: a much longer season. It really starts kind of in
24:26
Speaker 1: November and continues all the way you know through Christmas Eve.
24:30
Speaker 1: There's a lot of people that still shop, you know,
24:32
Speaker 1: that Super Saturday right up until Christmas Eve. So I
24:34
Speaker 1: don't think it has um the direct impact that it
24:38
Speaker 1: once had on you know, retailer's fortunes for that year.
24:42
Speaker 1: But I do think it's symbolically and important um day
24:46
Speaker 1: in the shopping season and in the holiday season for sure.
24:48
Speaker 1: Do you think that perhaps that Saturday it's going to
24:51
Speaker 1: continue to be even more important than Black Friday? Saturday? Yeah,
24:54
Speaker 1: because it's the last time you can get a gift
24:57
Speaker 1: for someone you can't shop online at Amazon. I do
25:03
Speaker 1: I think Super Saturday will continue to be important. I
25:06
Speaker 1: think it's part of it's just human nature. People tend,
25:08
Speaker 1: you know, where people are busy, and they have lots
25:11
Speaker 1: of polls on their time, and so it's logical that
25:14
Speaker 1: some folks procrastinate and uh, and so that lays plays
25:18
Speaker 1: into Super Saturday. I also think that people, um, you know,
25:22
Speaker 1: just part of the holiday season that you remember you
25:24
Speaker 1: need to buy two or three more gifts that you
25:26
Speaker 1: didn't think about. And so I think that is going
25:28
Speaker 1: to continue to be important. What about the experience economy
25:31
Speaker 1: when we hear so much about how people are moving
25:33
Speaker 1: away from the traditional shopping experience and for going physical
25:36
Speaker 1: things for experiences, I mean, are you seeing that in
25:40
Speaker 1: any way? Does that play out at all? You can see?
25:43
Speaker 1: I do? I think it's well, I think, first of all,
25:45
Speaker 1: I think the holiday season. I mean, if you really,
25:48
Speaker 1: you know, kind of take a step back. Before we
25:49
Speaker 1: started talking about experience, the holiday season was always really experiential, right,
25:54
Speaker 1: That's when you go shopping and you see the decorations.
26:00
Speaker 1: But I do think, I do think the retailers that
26:03
Speaker 1: win will create a differentiated experience for their consumers. That's
26:07
Speaker 1: part of this omni channel environment. I also think it's
26:10
Speaker 1: part of great customer service. It's also integration of technology
26:13
Speaker 1: into the retail experience. Whether it's you know, being able
26:17
Speaker 1: to use technology to help you fit you know, the
26:21
Speaker 1: right piece of clothing, whether it's to use technology to
26:24
Speaker 1: make sure you're buying the right sneakers and you kind
26:26
Speaker 1: of test them out on a on a half court,
26:29
Speaker 1: you know, and and say are these the right speakers
26:31
Speaker 1: for me? Do I get the right kind of response time?
26:33
Speaker 1: So all of those things, I think are are going
26:35
Speaker 1: to continue to be important, and I think you'll see
26:37
Speaker 1: technology and experience be integrated the shopping experience going forward.
26:41
Speaker 1: But I think ultimately, what I think is important is
26:44
Speaker 1: that people don't there is this at this time of
26:47
Speaker 1: the year, this sense that, oh, by goodness, e commerce
26:50
Speaker 1: is taking over and that's not happening. I think that
26:52
Speaker 1: e commerce is certainly a big part of the retail landscape,
26:56
Speaker 1: but brick and mortar, physical retailers are the by far
27:00
Speaker 1: are the largest part of the retail landscape. But I
27:02
Speaker 1: think you're having an integration of technology and physical and
27:05
Speaker 1: I think we'll get to a point where we won't
27:07
Speaker 1: talk about online versus physical, We'll talk about an omnichannel
27:09
Speaker 1: retail environment. Talk to us about malls though, what you
27:12
Speaker 1: know traffic is, you know, constantly down month after month.
27:16
Speaker 1: It's going to be something that's not going to stop. Um,
27:19
Speaker 1: what are malls doing this holiday season to get people
27:22
Speaker 1: in to convince them to come shopping, spend some time there?
27:25
Speaker 1: You know? You know? Uh, I think as it relates
27:29
Speaker 1: to traffic, obviously there's there. First of all, there's no
27:31
Speaker 1: real good measurement of traffic that's out there. There's nobody
27:34
Speaker 1: that measures traffic and says this is what's really happening. Also,
27:37
Speaker 1: remember sales overall have been going up, and so what
27:41
Speaker 1: is really happening, I think is you have a more
27:43
Speaker 1: efficient shopper. They do a lot of research online, they
27:47
Speaker 1: come into the store prepared to consummate that transaction. Efficient
27:51
Speaker 1: shoppers we're having. We had a wonderfully efficient conversation. We
27:54
Speaker 1: learned all about what we're gonna buy and what we
27:56
Speaker 1: can expect for the holiday season. Thank you so much.
28:05
Speaker 1: Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg pien L podcast. You
28:08
Speaker 1: can subscribe and listen to interviews at iTunes, SoundCloud, or
28:12
Speaker 1: whatever podcast platform you prefer. I'm Pim Fox. I'm out
28:16
Speaker 1: there on Twitter at Pim Fox. I'm out there on
28:19
Speaker 1: Twitter at Lisa Abramo it's one before the podcast. You
28:22
Speaker 1: can always catch us worldwide on Bloomberg Radio