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US strikes Iran hours before key election · INSIGHT TODAY

• 0:01
  Speaker 1: Just hours before Americans head to the polls, the United
• 0:04
  Speaker 1: States has reportedly struck Iran again. These pictures you're seeing
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: here are from the Reuters news agency. Reuters confirmed that
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: this was filmed by someone in Iran. Now, this raises
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: questions that could shape both the war and today's crucial
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: midterm elections in the U.S., The U.S. says the strikes
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: on Iran's Qeshm Island and the Strait of Hormuz were
• 0:26
  Speaker 1: limited and defensive and that they targeted surface-to-air missiles used
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: against U.S.
• 0:32
  Speaker 2: Assets.
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: At the same time, Donald Trump and his administration are
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: signaling optimism about a diplomatic deal with Tehran.
• 0:42
  Speaker 3: The president and I both feel pretty good about the
• 0:45
  Speaker 3: prospects for potentially coming to a negotiated settlement.
• 0:49
  Speaker 2: That was J.D.
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  Speaker 1: Vance, the vice president. Yet a senior Iranian official says
• 0:54
  Speaker 1: Tehran remains far from any agreement and will not accept
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: what it calls America's excessive demands. And Iran's chief negotiator
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: says it's now up to the US to prevent renewed war.
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: So why did Trump launch military action now? We're going
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: to break that down.
• 1:11
  Speaker 2: What happened?
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  Speaker 1: How these strikes fit into the wider US-Iran conflict? And ask,
• 1:17
  Speaker 1: what are the political stakes for the US president as
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: Americans head to the polls for elections that could define
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: Trump's closing chapter? Let's speak to Rowena Binti Abdul-Razak now.
• 1:29
  Speaker 1: She's an Iran expert and research associate in the history
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: of the Middle East and Africa at SOAS University of London. So, Rowena,
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  Speaker 1: first of all, what more do we know about these
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: reported strikes on Keshem Island?
• 1:44
  Speaker 2: Why would the U.S. have targeted Keshem?
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  Speaker 4: Thank you so much for having me. Keshem Island is
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  Speaker 4: significantly important. It's situated in the Persian Gulf. And it
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  Speaker 4: is Iran's main military and strategic area from which they
• 2:02
  Speaker 4: do military campaigns and also protect the Strait of Hormuz.
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  Speaker 4: So it's a major naval base as well. So very important.
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  Speaker 4: The U.S. has said that it has targeted the islands
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  Speaker 4: to focus on its surface-to-air missiles, as well as to
• 2:18
  Speaker 4: sort of limit Iran's capabilities of attacking ships that go
• 2:23
  Speaker 4: through the Strait of Hormuz. So the U.S. has said
• 2:26
  Speaker 4: that it is not a renewed military campaign, but rather
• 2:29
  Speaker 4: a limited military operation against Iran's capabilities in the Gulf.
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  Speaker 1: So a limited military operation, and yet from Iran's perspective,
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: give us a sense of how serious this incident is.
• 2:45
  Speaker 4: It's serious in the sense that Iran has been on
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  Speaker 4: alert for quite a while. Over the last few weeks,
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  Speaker 4: we've actually seen the U.S., threatening for an even bigger campaign.
• 2:55
  Speaker 4: Just a few days ago, there were reports that a
• 2:58
  Speaker 4: nuclear threat might be imminent. So Iran has been on
• 3:01
  Speaker 4: the defence for quite a while. So from Iran's perspective,
• 3:05
  Speaker 4: it is a confirmation that a US military campaign might
• 3:08
  Speaker 4: be ongoing. But at the same time, I don't think
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  Speaker 4: it's actually going to necessarily impact on Iran's perspectives or
• 3:16
  Speaker 4: how it's going to shape Tehran's necessary next steps. I
• 3:20
  Speaker 4: don't think it's going to result in an increased military
• 3:25
  Speaker 4: action in the Gulf. If anything, Iran might go for
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  Speaker 4: something limited as well, so targeting U.S. military assets in
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  Speaker 4: the Gulf countries. But I don't think more than that.
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  Speaker 4: Having said that, Iran has also said that it would
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  Speaker 4: and has given itself the permission to actually expand the
• 3:44
  Speaker 4: geographical limitations of its military campaigns. So this means that
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  Speaker 4: it might go beyond the Arab Gulf countries and might
• 3:53
  Speaker 4: attack U.S. assets in other countries. But again, this remains
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  Speaker 4: to be seen whether Iran would do that. Iran has
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  Speaker 4: said many things in the past, but hasn't actually gone
• 4:01
  Speaker 4: beyond just a tit for tat retaliation.
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  Speaker 1: Just to go in with a little bit more detail,
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  Speaker 1: I mean, how much military damage is Iran likely to
• 4:14
  Speaker 1: have suffered from these reported strikes? What would actually have happened?
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  Speaker 1: Do we know anything about that?
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  Speaker 4: So the reports that are coming out of Iran is
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  Speaker 4: that we know that they've heard some explosions, they've seen
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  Speaker 4: some planes, they've seen missiles coming from the sea. But
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  Speaker 4: the actual damage we don't know just yet, and Iran
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  Speaker 4: hasn't quite revealed. what has been damaged, and it's unlikely
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  Speaker 4: that it will actually reveal what has been damaged. So
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  Speaker 4: it will just, so as far as we know, there
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  Speaker 4: have been strikes, there have been some damage, some assets
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  Speaker 4: might have been taken out. But at the same time,
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  Speaker 4: we know that Iran has a significant stockpile of missiles.
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  Speaker 4: So whether it's actually going to, you know, whether these
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  Speaker 4: strikes have resulted in a major taking out of Iran's
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  Speaker 4: assets really remains to be seen. It does seem quite
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  Speaker 4: limited for this point. Having said that, we also know
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  Speaker 4: that a port was also damaged. But from what we
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  Speaker 4: can gather, it may not be as significant or as
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  Speaker 4: damaging as imagined. So again, a limited... It's a statement
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  Speaker 4: by the U.S. at the end of the day, isn't it?
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  Speaker 4: Because negotiations are happening at the same time.
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  Speaker 2: That's right, absolutely.
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  Speaker 1: And we'll come to those negotiations in just a second.
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  Speaker 1: I just wanted to go back to something you mentioned earlier.
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  Speaker 1: So this speculation that the U.S. might launch a nuclear
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  Speaker 1: strike on Pickaxe Mountain in Iran, a site that's linked
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  Speaker 1: to Iran's nuclear program. You mentioned earlier, Rowena, about Iran
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  Speaker 1: being on the defensive. Give us a sense of how
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  Speaker 1: seriously Iran takes this kind of talk, this kind of
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: rhetoric about nuclear strikes.
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  Speaker 4: Well, the nuclear program is extremely important for Iran's psyche.
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  Speaker 4: It's very important for its sovereignty. It is non-negotiable in
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  Speaker 4: many ways. And the government has stated many times that
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  Speaker 4: its nuclear program is not negotiable. It will not budge
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  Speaker 4: on that. So it is a very vital point in
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  Speaker 4: its negotiations, in its national and international projection of itself.
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  Speaker 4: So whether they're going to take it seriously, I mean, again,
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  Speaker 4: it remains to be seen. The United States has said
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  Speaker 4: many things about attacking Iran on a larger scale, but
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  Speaker 4: it hasn't come to fruition. So Iran might not take
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  Speaker 4: these kinds of threats seriously. very seriously. And again, it's
• 6:48
  Speaker 4: hard to say with the United States, Trump has said
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  Speaker 4: many things, and it hasn't quite happened. So Iran might
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  Speaker 4: not be taking it very seriously, but it does want
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  Speaker 4: to protect its nuclear program as much as possible. That's
• 6:59
  Speaker 4: for sure.
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  Speaker 1: We've mentioned the negotiations, these latest strikes come as both
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  Speaker 1: sides have been talking about diplomacy. We've often heard Donald
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  Speaker 1: Trump saying the Iranians want to make a deal. You know,
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: where are the negotiations right now? And how does this
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  Speaker 1: reported military action affect the prospects for current and future diplomacy?
• 7:27
  Speaker 4: As we've seen in the past, military action and diplomacy
• 7:31
  Speaker 4: kind of happen side by side, especially in the U.S.-Iran conflict.
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  Speaker 4: And this, again, might be a way in which the U.S.
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  Speaker 4: wants to show that it still has some significant say,
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  Speaker 4: especially because Iran is trying to seek for a diplomatic
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  Speaker 4: solution with the rest of the region. Qatar is leading.
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  Speaker 4: In fact, there is a negotiating team from Qatar into
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  Speaker 4: Iran just, you know, just if not yesterday, they were
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  Speaker 4: still there. And this comes after a few days of
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  Speaker 4: negotiations in Qatar between Tehran, Qatar, and as well as Pakistan.
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  Speaker 4: So we know that the Arab Gulf states are invested
• 8:03
  Speaker 4: in seeking for a regional solution. It's quite interesting because
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  Speaker 4: by carrying out this military operation, it also exposes the
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  Speaker 4: Arab Gulf states, who are U.S. allies, to a potential
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  Speaker 4: Iranian retaliation, which, as we know, causes disruption, causes tension
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  Speaker 4: in the relationship, causes problems. broader regional destabilization. So it
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  Speaker 4: is a little bit worrying that this is happening alongside that.
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  Speaker 4: But the U.S. has also said that this is not
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  Speaker 4: a big military campaign, that it is a limited operation.
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  Speaker 4: And we hope that it will not impact negotiations. At best,
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  Speaker 4: it will just sort of, the Iranian side will take
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  Speaker 4: this into consideration when they want to negotiate on things
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  Speaker 4: like the Strait of Hormuz, when they want to negotiate
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  Speaker 4: on things like its nuclear program, it might have some impact.
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  Speaker 4: They will take it into consideration, but at best, the
• 9:01
  Speaker 4: negotiations will continue and it won't impact it as much
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  Speaker 4: as we have seen in the past.
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  Speaker 2: We'll leave it there.
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  Speaker 1: Rowena Binti, Abdul Razak. with SOAS University of London. Rowena,
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  Speaker 1: thank you so much. Gordon Robison, he's an American journalist
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  Speaker 1: who's also spent many years working in the Middle East. So, Gordon,
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  Speaker 1: the timing of this is striking.
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  Speaker 2: U.S.
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  Speaker 1: Military action against Iran just hours before Americans vote in
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  Speaker 1: the midterms. Where does public opinion currently stand on the
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  Speaker 1: war with Iran? And do you think this might sway
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: the way that people vote?
• 9:37
  Speaker 5: Well, public opinion on the war in Iran is almost
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  Speaker 5: universally negative. I mean, there are a few people who
• 9:44
  Speaker 5: are in favor of the war or who think that
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  Speaker 5: the war has not been conducted vigorously enough. I mean,
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  Speaker 5: I have some friends on the political right who think
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  Speaker 5: like that, but they are a huge, very small minority.
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  Speaker 5: I don't think this is going to be strikes are
• 10:00
  Speaker 5: going to affect today's turnout or today's results simply because
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  Speaker 5: it's very late. In America, we don't really have an
• 10:08
  Speaker 5: election day anymore. We kind of have an election month.
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  Speaker 5: A lot of people have voted. I And also, these
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  Speaker 5: are fairly small, fairly limited strikes. There's been a lot
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  Speaker 5: of worry throughout the region that there is going to
• 10:25
  Speaker 5: be a massive escalation very shortly after these midterms. Whatever
• 10:31
  Speaker 5: this is, today's strikes are not that escalation.
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  Speaker 1: Now, President Trump has faced criticism, obviously from opponents, but
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  Speaker 1: also from voices within his own party. How much of
• 10:46
  Speaker 1: a political issue was the Iran war in his campaign,
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  Speaker 1: in the campaigning for the midterms?
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  Speaker 5: I think it's been a leading issue, but it hasn't
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  Speaker 5: been the leading issue. By far, the main issue in
• 11:02
  Speaker 5: terms of the Democrats has been affordability, cost of living, inflation.
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  Speaker 5: In some ways, those are all different ways of saying
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  Speaker 5: the same thing, but that's what has really been driving
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  Speaker 5: the political conversation. But the Iran war is, in many respects,
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  Speaker 5: a close second. One of the things that President Trump very,
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  Speaker 5: very definitively promised in his campaign two years ago was
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  Speaker 5: that he wasn't going to start any more foreign wars.
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  Speaker 5: And so now we have an open-ended war in Iran.
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  Speaker 5: And back in January, we had the US attack on Venezuela,
• 11:38
  Speaker 5: which was much more successful from the American perspective, much
• 11:42
  Speaker 5: more short-lived, so to speak. but still feeds this general
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  Speaker 5: view on the part of many people that the president
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  Speaker 5: has not kept his promise about not starting any more wars.
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  Speaker 5: And in the case of the Iran, an open-ended war
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  Speaker 5: that really shows no sign of ending.
• 12:01
  Speaker 1: We've heard Trump talking about striking a deal with Iran.
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  Speaker 1: Iran wants to strike a deal. Let's take a listen
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  Speaker 1: to J.D. Vance, the vice president, just talking about negotiations
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  Speaker 1: with the Iranians.
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  Speaker 3: The president and I both feel pretty good about the
• 12:15
  Speaker 3: prospects for potentially coming to a negotiated settlement. We're going
• 12:19
  Speaker 3: to keep on working at it.
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  Speaker 4: You never know.
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  Speaker 3: Of course, the Iranians are always a little unpredictable. And
• 12:23
  Speaker 3: as the president always says, he retains kinetic options. He
• 12:26
  Speaker 3: retains non-kinetic options. But we've certainly made some progress. We'll
• 12:30
  Speaker 3: see if we can make some more.
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: So how are people interpreting the fact that Trump is
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: simultaneously authorizing military action while also apparently feeling optimistic about
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: a diplomatic agreement with Tehran?
• 12:46
  Speaker 5: Well, you know, this war has been going on for
• 12:48
  Speaker 5: eight months and maybe nine months. And how many times
• 12:52
  Speaker 5: has the U.S. said that it is optimistic or that
• 12:55
  Speaker 5: it's very close to a settlement? I don't think that
• 12:58
  Speaker 5: has much effect at this point because, frankly, the administration
• 13:01
  Speaker 5: has said this so many times before. And either nothing
• 13:06
  Speaker 5: comes of it or we wind up bombing Iran again. very,
• 13:11
  Speaker 5: very shortly thereafter. I mean, from a Middle Eastern perspective,
• 13:14
  Speaker 5: it's also worth adding that at the time the war
• 13:17
  Speaker 5: began in February, the United States was in talks with Iran.
• 13:22
  Speaker 5: And if you go back a year to the strikes
• 13:25
  Speaker 5: in 2025, similarly, those happened as the US was talking
• 13:29
  Speaker 5: to Iranian delegations. I think it's worth saying that I
• 13:33
  Speaker 5: don't think the Iranians put much stock in that either.
• 13:36
  Speaker 5: But I think from an American electoral perspective, it's all
• 13:41
  Speaker 5: just kind of white noise. The war is the war.
• 13:44
  Speaker 5: And comments like those by the vice president, with all
• 13:47
  Speaker 5: due respect to the vice president, I don't think they
• 13:50
  Speaker 5: have much purchase on what happens at the voting booth.
• 13:53
  Speaker 5: All right.
• 13:54
  Speaker 1: So let's talk about what happens at the voting booth.
• 13:57
  Speaker 1: You've said that the war with Iran is an issue,
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: but it's not necessarily the most important issue. And you
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: did mention a few of the issues earlier, economy, inflation, health.
• 14:09
  Speaker 2: Care, immigration, the price of gas.
• 14:12
  Speaker 1: Just tell us what people are really looking at when
• 14:16
  Speaker 1: it comes to deciding who gets their vote.
• 14:21
  Speaker 5: Well, it's worth remembering these are midterm elections. So the
• 14:24
  Speaker 5: president is not on the ballot. It's a series of
• 14:27
  Speaker 5: state and local elections for one third of the Senate,
• 14:30
  Speaker 5: all of the House of Representatives and about two thirds
• 14:33
  Speaker 5: of the state governors.
• 14:35
  Speaker 2: Although we should say, shouldn't we, Gordon?
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: Sorry to interrupt you, but Trump has said many times,
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: hasn't he, at his rallies, just pretend that it's.
• 14:43
  Speaker 2: Me on the ballot.
• 14:45
  Speaker 5: Yes, yes, he has said that. And that's been an
• 14:48
  Speaker 5: electoral strategy. But my point is that people approach a
• 14:51
  Speaker 5: midterm election differently than they approach a presidential election. At
• 14:55
  Speaker 5: the most basic level, the turnout level is significantly smaller
• 15:00
  Speaker 5: in midterms. I mean, we're looking at what may be
• 15:03
  Speaker 5: historically high turnout for a midterm, but that's still significantly
• 15:09
  Speaker 5: fewer people than would vote in a presidential election. And
• 15:13
  Speaker 5: so my point is that state and local issues, candidate
• 15:17
  Speaker 5: quality become very important. It is not as nationalized a
• 15:22
  Speaker 5: campaign as you saw two years ago or you'll see
• 15:26
  Speaker 5: two years from now. So again, we have very similar
• 15:31
  Speaker 5: issues across the country, cost of living, foreign wars, Healthcare
• 15:38
  Speaker 5: and the Democrats, many Democrats, not all, want Medicare for all.
• 15:43
  Speaker 5: In some races, the war in Gaza has become a
• 15:46
  Speaker 5: significant factor. But it's a much less national election than
• 15:51
  Speaker 5: a presidential election would be, despite what the president has
• 15:54
  Speaker 5: been telling his supporters. And I think I should add
• 15:58
  Speaker 5: that The speech the president made yesterday at the Lincoln
• 16:01
  Speaker 5: Memorial Reflecting Pool, which was billed as his national closing argument,
• 16:08
  Speaker 5: but was this rambling discourse about fixing the reflecting pool,
• 16:14
  Speaker 5: restoring statues in Washington. you know, restoring, upgrading a golf
• 16:20
  Speaker 5: course in Washington, D.C., it was really, really head scratching
• 16:24
  Speaker 5: to watch. I mean, if you're a voter in Texas
• 16:26
  Speaker 5: or Ohio or Iowa or Maine trying to decide who
• 16:32
  Speaker 5: you're going to vote for for Senate, who you're going
• 16:33
  Speaker 5: to vote for for governor, that was probably not a
• 16:37
  Speaker 5: really effective closing message.
• 16:40
  Speaker 2: We'll leave it there. American journalist and analyst Gordon Robison. Gordon,
• 16:43
  Speaker 2: thank you so much. So what do you think?
• 16:45
  Speaker 1: How important is the US war in Iran for voters
• 16:49
  Speaker 1: in the US? Let us know in the comments. Thanks
• 16:51
  Speaker 1: for watching.
• 16:52
  Speaker 2: I'll see you again soon.