Latest / Bloomberg Intelligence / BI Weekend: US Earnings, Morning Consult Poll
Transcript
- 0:02Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. This is Bloomberg Intelligence
- 0:12Speaker 1: with Alex Steinah and Paul'sweenye.
- 0:14Speaker 2: The real app performance has been in US corporate high yield.
- 0:17Speaker 3: Are the companies lean enough? Have they trimmed all the fats?
- 0:20Speaker 2: The semiconductor business is a really cyclical business.
- 0:23Speaker 1: Breaking market headlines and corporate news from across the globe.
- 0:27Speaker 3: Do investors like the M and A that we've seen?
- 0:30Speaker 4: These are two.
- 0:31Speaker 2: Big time blue chip companies.
- 0:33Speaker 3: The window between the peak and cut changing super fast.
- 0:37Speaker 1: Bloomberg Intelligence with Alex Steinhall and Paul'sweenye on Bloomberg Radio.
- 0:43Speaker 2: Today's Bloomberg Intelligence Show, we dig inside the big business
- 0:46Speaker 2: stories impacting Wall Street and the global markets.
- 0:48Speaker 3: Each and every week we provide in depth research and
- 0:50Speaker 3: data on some of the two thousand companies and one
- 0:52Speaker 3: hundred and thirty industries our analysts cover worldwide.
- 0:55Speaker 2: Today, well, look at why fast food chain McDonald's experience
- 0:57Speaker 2: its first sales drop in four years.
- 0:59Speaker 3: Plus, plainmaker Boeing has a new CEO. We'll discuss that
- 1:02Speaker 3: in the company's second quarter earnings.
- 1:04Speaker 2: But first we will begin with the big tech earnings
- 1:06Speaker 2: and Microsoft. Microsoft reported fourth quarter earnings and revenue the
- 1:10Speaker 2: top analysts expectations.
- 1:11Speaker 3: But the company's Azure cloud competing service posted a slow
- 1:14Speaker 3: down in growth last quarter, and this comes as investors
- 1:16Speaker 3: are anxious to see a payoff from huge investments in
- 1:19Speaker 3: AI products.
- 1:20Speaker 2: For more, we were joined by Anna Agrana, Bloomberg Intelligence
- 1:23Speaker 2: technology analyst.
- 1:24Speaker 3: We first asked Animog for his key takeaways from Microsoft results.
- 1:28Speaker 4: When Microsoft keep guidance for rasher last quarter, they said
- 1:31Speaker 4: growth rate of thirty to thirty one percent in constant currency,
- 1:35Speaker 4: and boy, they didn't hit thirty one.
- 1:37Speaker 5: They hit thirty.
- 1:38Speaker 4: People got disappointed, but they did a good job of
- 1:41Speaker 4: explaining what's happening on the conference called at the end
- 1:43Speaker 4: of the day, they are adding more capacity for their
- 1:46Speaker 4: data centers, and the growth rate of the cloud, still
- 1:50Speaker 4: very strong, will slow down slightly because of capacity issues
- 1:55Speaker 4: and not demand issues. And as they get more data
- 1:58Speaker 4: centers up, growth will accelerate.
- 2:01Speaker 3: Oh okay, So to be clear, then they're saying, look,
- 2:04Speaker 3: it's on us to build out all this stuff and
- 2:06Speaker 3: then all of a sudden, the revenue will accelerate. This
- 2:08Speaker 3: and not like a trend of slowing cloud revenue growth
- 2:10Speaker 3: because of demand.
- 2:11Speaker 4: Just to clarify for me, yes, absolutely. In fact, and
- 2:15Speaker 4: the cloud growth is driven in part or I would
- 2:18Speaker 4: say largely by AI bookloads because of their relationship with
- 2:22Speaker 4: Opening Eye. That really is the biggest driving factor. And
- 2:25Speaker 4: Microsoft has an edge there over others because of that
- 2:28Speaker 4: unique relationship that I mentioned. So I think Microsoft remains
- 2:32Speaker 4: the primary beneficiary on the software side, similar to what
- 2:36Speaker 4: Nvidia has on the chip side.
- 2:38Speaker 2: So an rag part of the discussion I guess probably
- 2:41Speaker 2: over the last month or month and a half about
- 2:44Speaker 2: AI has been Okay, I understand the spending aspect of it,
- 2:48Speaker 2: to build out capacity, to build out you know, whatever
- 2:51Speaker 2: I need. Remind me once again, what's the return on
- 2:54Speaker 2: that investment? So there's been some questions about the returns.
- 2:57Speaker 2: How do you answer that question?
- 3:00Speaker 4: So you know, if you were in the semiconductor world,
- 3:02Speaker 4: your return is pretty quickly because the people are going
- 3:04Speaker 4: to buy chips immediately. But if you're in the software world,
- 3:07Speaker 4: first you're going to get those chip, create a data center,
- 3:10Speaker 4: add more servers, and then create your software products that
- 3:15Speaker 4: which you're going to sell. Now, that thing's going to
- 3:17Speaker 4: take time, whether it's going to take six months, twelve months,
- 3:19Speaker 4: two years, and then you're going to realize that AI
- 3:22Speaker 4: revenue and that's where the entire rest of the world is,
- 3:25Speaker 4: whether it's on the software side or the services side,
- 3:28Speaker 4: and people need to have a very good understanding of it.
- 3:31Speaker 4: Otherwise they keep on harping on this capex issue, which
- 3:34Speaker 4: is going to get much bigger, and which is why
- 3:36Speaker 4: the chip stocks are doing very well because Microsoft communicated
- 3:40Speaker 4: that they're going to increase their capex even.
- 3:42Speaker 5: More this year.
- 3:43Speaker 4: So this is really where people need to understand this
- 3:46Speaker 4: and otherwise this confusion is going to continue going in
- 3:48Speaker 4: a next quarter as well.
- 3:50Speaker 6: Well.
- 3:50Speaker 3: Then to that point, you know, we got AMD boosting
- 3:53Speaker 3: at sales forecast for AI at the same time Intel's
- 3:56Speaker 3: cutting thousands of jobs. Where is Intel in this party?
- 4:00Speaker 5: Yeah?
- 4:01Speaker 4: I mean, I think the biggest party player really is
- 4:03Speaker 4: in video with their GPUs that are truly required for
- 4:07Speaker 4: these workloads, and AMD is also benefiting a little bit
- 4:10Speaker 4: from that. Intel, I think is needs to do a
- 4:12Speaker 4: lot more work before they can capitalize on this particular trend.
- 4:16Speaker 3: So Intel's in like the quad, like not even not
- 4:19Speaker 3: even closed to coming into the frat house. Basically, can
- 4:22Speaker 3: we look at it that?
- 4:23Speaker 2: Yeah?
- 4:23Speaker 5: Exactly?
- 4:25Speaker 2: How else in your space an A rag what else
- 4:28Speaker 2: looks attractive here.
- 4:31Speaker 4: I think the fun is going to be tomorrow evening
- 4:33Speaker 4: when Amazon reports and they start talking about their AI strategy,
- 4:37Speaker 4: because remember they do not have a relationship with open ai,
- 4:40Speaker 4: but they are still the largest cloud infrastructure vendor and
- 4:43Speaker 4: have more services than anybody else. They will come out
- 4:46Speaker 4: and give the message that listen, it's not just OpenAI,
- 4:49Speaker 4: but other large language models as well that people are using,
- 4:52Speaker 4: and they're using AWS services for that. You know, whether
- 4:55Speaker 4: that's anthropic or whether that's meta. All these companies have
- 4:59Speaker 4: their models as well, and people should be trying that.
- 5:02Speaker 3: And before I let you go, what I also found
- 5:04Speaker 3: interesting was that eight percentage points of the increase in
- 5:08Speaker 3: as your revenue and cloud revenue was attributable to AI.
- 5:10Speaker 3: That was up about seven percentage points. How do you
- 5:13Speaker 3: think that winds up looking like, are we going to
- 5:15Speaker 3: start to see like double digit increases here? Is it
- 5:18Speaker 3: going to be a slow grind higher?
- 5:20Speaker 5: No?
- 5:21Speaker 4: I think over time it will be double digits, But
- 5:23Speaker 4: again the timing is difficult. When we extrapolated this number,
- 5:26Speaker 4: we are coming to somewhere around one point four billion
- 5:28Speaker 4: in this quarter. That's over ten times in just one year.
- 5:32Speaker 4: It was, you know, it was roughly around one hundred
- 5:35Speaker 4: plus million a year ago. This is all the AI
- 5:38Speaker 4: workloads from open Ai, So I mean it is really
- 5:40Speaker 4: a big number frankly. But over time what will also
- 5:44Speaker 4: happen is there's going to be a blending between the
- 5:47Speaker 4: workloads on AI and the non AI workloads. And for us,
- 5:50Speaker 4: the net beneficiary are the three biggest cloud vendors, and
- 5:53Speaker 4: in fact, even Oracle is going to benefit from this.
- 5:56Speaker 2: Our thanks to anorog Rana Bloomberg Intelligence technology analyst, take.
- 6:00Speaker 3: A look at the latest Bloomberg News Morning Console poll.
- 6:03Speaker 2: It shows a Kamala Harris has wiped out Donald Trump's
- 6:05Speaker 2: leader across seven battle ground states as a vice president,
- 6:08Speaker 2: rise a wave of enthusiasm among young, black and Hispanic voters.
- 6:12Speaker 3: For more, we are joined by Laura Davison, Bloomberg Politics editor.
- 6:15Speaker 2: We first asked her for her key takeaways from this pole.
- 6:18Speaker 7: This is the best that the Democratic challenger to Trump
- 6:21Speaker 7: has ever done. You know, this is the first time
- 6:23Speaker 7: we have polled Harris. It's a statistical tie essentially between
- 6:26Speaker 7: the two candidates. She's technically up one percentage point, but
- 6:29Speaker 7: that's within the margin of air. The other key takeaway
- 6:32Speaker 7: here is that black voters, young voters, Hispanic voters are
- 6:35Speaker 7: much more likely to vote now that Harris is on
- 6:38Speaker 7: the ticket. So this is, you know, been something that
- 6:40Speaker 7: that the Trump campaign has created their strategy around of
- 6:42Speaker 7: trying to get you know, pull away at the margins
- 6:45Speaker 7: and black voters and Hispanic support. But this would indicate
- 6:48Speaker 7: that perhaps the tides are shifting in Harris's favor on
- 6:50Speaker 7: that front.
- 6:51Speaker 3: Well, that was sort of one of my questions too.
- 6:52Speaker 3: Are these voters that are switching or are they new
- 6:55Speaker 3: voters that are swinging these poles.
- 6:58Speaker 7: So we don't yet know what that is based on
- 7:01Speaker 7: how the poll works, but what we see is that
- 7:03Speaker 7: voters who are unsure if they're going to vote are
- 7:05Speaker 7: now saying they're much more likely that they're going to vote.
- 7:07Speaker 7: So these may be people who voted in twenty who
- 7:09Speaker 7: were not enthused by either candidate, who are going to
- 7:12Speaker 7: stay at home, or people who maybe have never voted.
- 7:14Speaker 7: But you know, a turnout election is expected to help
- 7:17Speaker 7: Harris on this front versus Trump. You know, the Trump
- 7:20Speaker 7: folks were you know, sort of hoping to pull away
- 7:23Speaker 7: particularly black men Hispanic men, but you know, we're not
- 7:26Speaker 7: hoping to see a big surgeon turnout that you know,
- 7:28Speaker 7: really helped Biden in twenty twenty and could potentially help
- 7:32Speaker 7: Harris in twenty four.
- 7:33Speaker 2: Or you know, as a former Wall Street person, I
- 7:35Speaker 2: tend to follow the money and Vice President Kamala Harris
- 7:39Speaker 2: has had a pretty good run here in the last
- 7:41Speaker 2: week or so raising money. Do we know where that
- 7:44Speaker 2: money's coming from.
- 7:45Speaker 7: Yeah, So, her campaign says they've raised about two hundred
- 7:47Speaker 7: million dollars and that's in the first week or so
- 7:49Speaker 7: of the campaign. This is largely from small dollar donors.
- 7:53Speaker 7: These are people who are going and giving online and
- 7:55Speaker 7: you know, increments of you know, anywhere from you know,
- 7:57Speaker 7: just a couple of dollars to you know, up to
- 7:58Speaker 7: a couple thousand dollars. We've also known that her super Pack,
- 8:01Speaker 7: this is the group that can accept money in unlimited amounts,
- 8:04Speaker 7: has gotten one hundred and fifty million in commitments since
- 8:07Speaker 7: Biden has dropped out of the race. These big dollar donors,
- 8:09Speaker 7: people who give millions of dollars, had decided to withhold
- 8:12Speaker 7: a bunch of contributions, you know, in order to sort
- 8:14Speaker 7: of pressure Biden to get off of the ticket. So
- 8:17Speaker 7: now that money is coming back into the fore just
- 8:19Speaker 7: for you know, kind of some in comparison here of
- 8:21Speaker 7: Harris when she inherited the Biden campaign accounts that had
- 8:24Speaker 7: about one hundred million dollars. Since then, she's raised another
- 8:26Speaker 7: two hundred million dollars, So these are really big sums.
- 8:29Speaker 3: How much of this could be also attributed just to momentum,
- 8:31Speaker 3: as in, when you have the RNC, the candidate gets
- 8:34Speaker 3: a boost, the DNC provides a boost. This is an
- 8:36Speaker 3: unprecedented moment in political history, so no doubt the candidate
- 8:40Speaker 3: would get a boosed.
- 8:42Speaker 7: Yes, and the timing year is all really interesting because,
- 8:44Speaker 7: of course Biden has dropped out two days after the RNC,
- 8:46Speaker 7: so Trump was expecting to see a big polling boost
- 8:49Speaker 7: coming out of that. Of course, just a week prior
- 8:50Speaker 7: that had been the assassination attempt. Leaving the RNC, Republicans
- 8:54Speaker 7: were very confident about their chances, and you know, even
- 8:56Speaker 7: Republican operatives were saying one of the things they needed
- 8:59Speaker 7: to be cautious of is that they weren't overconfident. Of course,
- 9:01Speaker 7: that all switched, you know, just a couple of days later.
- 9:04Speaker 7: What the Trump team is saying is, look, this is
- 9:06Speaker 7: a Harris honeymoon. This is a surgeon momentum that will
- 9:09Speaker 7: just be a flash in the pan and won't last
- 9:11Speaker 7: until November. That's really what what we'll be looking for
- 9:13Speaker 7: in the next couple weeks, if you know, is she
- 9:15Speaker 7: able to maintain both this fundraising edge as well as
- 9:18Speaker 7: this polling edge, or do we revert to where you know,
- 9:20Speaker 7: the Biden Trump race was just with Harris on the
- 9:22Speaker 7: ticket in a couple of weeks.
- 9:23Speaker 3: What do we make about the situation in Israel and
- 9:26Speaker 3: how that is polling for Kamala Harris, Because clearly there's
- 9:30Speaker 3: a huge section of voters that is very unhappy of
- 9:32Speaker 3: what's happening in Gaza right that we're maybe not voting
- 9:35Speaker 3: at all for President Biden, But are they coming back
- 9:39Speaker 3: in now? Do we know anything along those lines?
- 9:42Speaker 7: Yeah, So what this poll shows is that people who
- 9:44Speaker 7: are very concerned about the Israel Gaza war, and particularly
- 9:47Speaker 7: young voters for whom this is a bigger issue, are
- 9:49Speaker 7: more likely to vote for Harris. She's taken a softer
- 9:52Speaker 7: tone on this and is you know, just doesn't have
- 9:55Speaker 7: quite the same negatives on this issue that Biden does.
- 9:57Speaker 7: You know, one of the things, you know, particularly just
- 9:59Speaker 7: with the you know events of late of you know,
- 10:01Speaker 7: kind of there being more unrest in the Middle East.
- 10:04Speaker 7: Is you know that the Biden administration is still pushing
- 10:07Speaker 7: for a ceasefire. Harris is still pushing for a ceasefire.
- 10:09Speaker 7: Democrats really want this to be an issue that is
- 10:12Speaker 7: working towards a resolution versus, you know, an issue that's
- 10:15Speaker 7: flaring up, particularly as students go back to college campuses
- 10:17Speaker 7: in a couple of weeks. They don't want to see
- 10:19Speaker 7: the protests that we saw last spring.
- 10:21Speaker 2: Did the Republicans have buyer's remorse for JD.
- 10:23Speaker 1: Vance.
- 10:24Speaker 2: I'm seeing some reporting all along those lines.
- 10:27Speaker 7: Yes, there's there's a lot of conversations on that, even
- 10:29Speaker 7: on a Bloomberg television mcmulvaney, who's a Trump ally, came
- 10:32Speaker 7: on earlier this week and said, no, they're not looking
- 10:34Speaker 7: to replace JD. Vance. But of course, if you're being
- 10:37Speaker 7: asked about this, this means that this is at least
- 10:39Speaker 7: a conversation that is circulating. You know, Vance has had
- 10:42Speaker 7: a rough rollout, you know, just in about the you know,
- 10:44Speaker 7: two weeks or so that he's been on the ticket.
- 10:47Speaker 7: You know, some past comments he's made, you know, sort
- 10:49Speaker 7: of degrading childless cat ladies have come up. He has
- 10:53Speaker 7: had had some jokes on the campaign trail that have
- 10:55Speaker 7: come across as crass and haven't really landed. So this
- 10:58Speaker 7: is a conversation that's happening on the upon the sort
- 11:01Speaker 7: of Republican elite to the mainstream Republican class, but isn't
- 11:05Speaker 7: really reaching the Trump campaign. They have continued to say
- 11:08Speaker 7: JD is our guy, and we're going to stick by him.
- 11:10Speaker 2: Our thanks to Lard Davison, Bloomberg Politics Editor.
- 11:12Speaker 3: Coming up, we're going to break down why wireless carrier
- 11:14Speaker 3: Team Mobile added more subscribers last quarter.
- 11:17Speaker 2: You're listening to Bloomberg Intelligence on Bloomberg Radio, providing inft
- 11:20Speaker 2: research and data on two thousand companies and one hundred
- 11:22Speaker 2: and thirty industries. You can access Bloomberg Intelligence via b
- 11:25Speaker 2: I go on the terminal.
- 11:26Speaker 3: I'm Paul Sweeney and am Alex Steele, and this is Bloomberg.
- 11:32Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us live
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- 11:47Speaker 3: Move next to the aerospace industry and Boeing. This week,
- 11:50Speaker 3: Boeing announced its appointing Kelly Ordberg as its next CEO,
- 11:53Speaker 3: replacing Dave Calhoun.
- 11:55Speaker 2: Bobbing made the announcement as it reported burning through more
- 11:57Speaker 2: than four billion dollars in cash last quarter. Well more
- 12:00Speaker 2: and all this. We were joined by George Ferguson, Bloomberg
- 12:02Speaker 2: Intelligence Senior Aerospace, Defense and Airlines analyst.
- 12:05Speaker 3: He first asked, George, if it's new CEO, is the
- 12:07Speaker 3: guy that Boeing needs to turn things around?
- 12:10Speaker 8: Not so sure. I think it's the guy that Boeing
- 12:12Speaker 8: needs for a small period of time, right because he
- 12:16Speaker 8: was already retired, right, he has you know, he's a
- 12:19Speaker 8: great career in aerospace working to Collins, help him put
- 12:23Speaker 8: Collins into RTX, I mean, a great experience. He's sixty four,
- 12:29Speaker 8: So my guess is he doesn't have a lot of
- 12:31Speaker 8: runway to work at Boeing. I think it'd have been
- 12:33Speaker 8: nicer to see a CEO that could have put I
- 12:36Speaker 8: don't know, five, seven, ten years into Boeing. But look,
- 12:42Speaker 8: I think the job is very difficult, and so I
- 12:43Speaker 8: think it's going to take a lot out of the
- 12:45Speaker 8: next CEO. And so maybe this is an interim as
- 12:51Speaker 8: they continue to develop internal candidates for the job. Maybe
- 12:56Speaker 8: it's very pretty difficult to recruit somebody into this job
- 12:58Speaker 8: right now. Could be an interim because of that as well.
- 13:01Speaker 8: So again, you know, the strong aerospace background at the
- 13:06Speaker 8: component at the you know, parts maker level, but doesn't
- 13:10Speaker 8: look like someone's going to be around for the next
- 13:12Speaker 8: five seven years.
- 13:14Speaker 2: All right, George, all right, so that's the CEO. How
- 13:16Speaker 2: about on the fundamentals here, I'm looking at the second
- 13:19Speaker 2: quarter negative adjusted free cash slow four point three billion dollars.
- 13:25Speaker 2: You can't like that. Talk to us about kind of
- 13:27Speaker 2: the cash flow, the dynamics and what they need to do.
- 13:30Speaker 8: So we kind of expected that four point three billion
- 13:32Speaker 8: dollars to be really honest, I'm not totally sure why
- 13:37Speaker 8: the stock is up. I don't think it's Kelly because
- 13:39Speaker 8: Kelly News started the day out and bowing anchors up
- 13:42Speaker 8: about one so post earnings were up. You know, we've
- 13:45Speaker 8: done this pop. I mean, you know, we heard from
- 13:48Speaker 8: CFO Brian West during the call. He told us Burn
- 13:51Speaker 8: was going to be pretty strong in three Q two,
- 13:55Speaker 8: and then some the analysts tried to box him in
- 13:57Speaker 8: on what Burn was going to be for the year.
- 13:59Speaker 8: One said would be closer to five billion or ten billion.
- 14:04Speaker 8: He said he wasn't. I think his quote somebody got,
- 14:05Speaker 8: I'm not smart enough to tell you at this time.
- 14:08Speaker 8: So there's just a lot of variability right now. That look,
- 14:11Speaker 8: Boeing has to keep taking inventory, taking ship sets from
- 14:16Speaker 8: their supplier base to keep their supplier base in business
- 14:20Speaker 8: while they ramp up builds. And they had some good
- 14:22Speaker 8: commentaries and builds. They talked about the factory kind of
- 14:26Speaker 8: putting out twenty ish I think was the number, and
- 14:28Speaker 8: I think total deliveries in the thirty ish range for
- 14:31Speaker 8: seven thirty sevens rising to thirty eight shutting down those
- 14:35Speaker 8: shadow factories. It's the factories that they have the inventoried airplanes,
- 14:39Speaker 8: a lot of seven three sevens, some seven eight sevens
- 14:42Speaker 8: in shutting them down by the end of the year.
- 14:44Speaker 8: That was I think, great commentary. You know, we got
- 14:48Speaker 8: to the commentary about what's going to go on with
- 14:50Speaker 8: the union negotiations. Those are coming up in September. Dave
- 14:53Speaker 8: Calhoun kind of told us he I think wasn't totally
- 14:56Speaker 8: focused on that right now, or didn't have couldn't give
- 14:59Speaker 8: us PU and takes there that's incredibly important. Right, So
- 15:03Speaker 8: if we get into a situation where the union shuts
- 15:05Speaker 8: this company down in September, the cash burn this year
- 15:09Speaker 8: looks looks horrible. Their back going to capital markets looking
- 15:13Speaker 8: for a bond raise, which I think everybody on the
- 15:16Speaker 8: bond side is scared to death about because they don't
- 15:18Speaker 8: want to see a fall to investment grade, or they're
- 15:20Speaker 8: going to the equity side, which the equity guys don't
- 15:23Speaker 8: want to hear about, right, because that's dilution, you know.
- 15:26Speaker 8: So I think again commentary was good around deliveries and
- 15:28Speaker 8: things like that, but a lot of variability coming, you
- 15:30Speaker 8: know here around this cash flow burn, and it's super important.
- 15:34Speaker 2: Thanks to George Ferguson Bloomberg Intelligence senior Aerospace, Defense and
- 15:38Speaker 2: airlines analysts.
- 15:39Speaker 3: We move next to earnings from Training Technologies, the maker
- 15:41Speaker 3: of heating and cooling systems. So the company posted better
- 15:44Speaker 3: than expected earnings in the second quarter and raise it's
- 15:46Speaker 3: full your forecast.
- 15:47Speaker 2: From Morewood, joined by Train's CEO Dave REGNERI. First the
- 15:50Speaker 2: asked David why the company had such positive results.
- 15:53Speaker 6: As far as what's driving our growth? You know, I
- 15:55Speaker 6: always tell people we have a system of things that
- 15:57Speaker 6: makes Train Technology is a great company. And whether it's
- 16:01Speaker 6: the way we operate our facilities, through our business operating
- 16:05Speaker 6: system ways, whether it's the way we innovate our new products,
- 16:08Speaker 6: or whether it's our direct salesforce. Those are a system
- 16:12Speaker 6: of things that make us a great company. And we
- 16:15Speaker 6: have a service business that's a third of our company
- 16:18Speaker 6: that's performing extremely well. In the second quarter, our service
- 16:23Speaker 6: business was up mid teens from a growth perspective, and
- 16:27Speaker 6: we have a culture that's you know, we believe in
- 16:30Speaker 6: challenging what's possible and innovating for a sustainable world.
- 16:33Speaker 3: So based on that, it's great to chat with you.
- 16:35Speaker 3: By the way, I love love talking to you, because
- 16:38Speaker 3: you have such a great read on the residential and
- 16:41Speaker 3: commercial businesses. Basically a commercial HVAC unit and a near
- 16:44Speaker 3: term residential HVAC unit, and of course that's heating, ventiletion,
- 16:49Speaker 3: air and cooling. Where's the strength, where's the growth, where
- 16:53Speaker 3: are the weak points?
- 16:55Speaker 6: Yeah, I'll start with residential. We had a very strong
- 16:58Speaker 6: quarter in the second quarter or revenue was up low teens,
- 17:02Speaker 6: but that our residential business for the prior I'll say,
- 17:06Speaker 6: you know, three quarters had really been struggling with a
- 17:11Speaker 6: refrigerant change that wasn't clear. That's been clarified. It was
- 17:15Speaker 6: really struggling with excess inventory kind of a hangover from
- 17:18Speaker 6: the COVID days that was in the channel. Those both
- 17:21Speaker 6: correct it, and we're off to a very warm start
- 17:24Speaker 6: to the cooling season, which should have us all concerned
- 17:27Speaker 6: for a different reason as the climate continues to increase
- 17:31Speaker 6: in temperature. But I would tell you that it's a
- 17:34Speaker 6: very strong start of the year, so very strong and residential,
- 17:36Speaker 6: our commercial business really broad based growth. You know, certainly
- 17:40Speaker 6: the high growth verticals like data centers. We do very
- 17:43Speaker 6: very well in our education or in healthcare, but we
- 17:47Speaker 6: had broad based growth in the Americas. We track fourteen
- 17:52Speaker 6: different verticals and we were hard pressed to find a
- 17:55Speaker 6: vertical that we were not strong in. So it was
- 17:59Speaker 6: just it was a very strong quarter for Trained Technology.
- 18:01Speaker 6: I'm very proud of what the team's been able to accomplish.
- 18:04Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm reading the Bloomberg Intelligence research note on your earnings.
- 18:08Speaker 2: North America's sixteen percent organic growth was much greater than
- 18:11Speaker 2: the ten percent consensus.
- 18:13Speaker 3: What drove that?
- 18:14Speaker 6: Yeah, really two things. Our residential business perform better. Okay,
- 18:17Speaker 6: we thought that was going to be. You know, in
- 18:19Speaker 6: the beginning of the year, we thought our residential business
- 18:21Speaker 6: would below single digits. We came in you know, low
- 18:24Speaker 6: teams in the quarter, so we significantly outdrove that. And
- 18:28Speaker 6: then our commercial HVAC business just continues to operate at
- 18:32Speaker 6: a very high level.
- 18:33Speaker 5: And like I.
- 18:34Speaker 6: Said, services was up in the high teens actually in
- 18:38Speaker 6: the Americas, and their equipment business just continues to exceed
- 18:43Speaker 6: our customers' expectations. So very strong quarter. You know, I
- 18:47Speaker 6: was listening to your show earlier. You were talking about sustainability,
- 18:50Speaker 6: and I would tell you that Trained Technologies our purpose
- 18:54Speaker 6: is built around sustainability. And what people are talking about
- 19:00Speaker 6: right now as you're hearing a lot about, you know,
- 19:02Speaker 6: how much power is going to have to be generated
- 19:05Speaker 6: to meet the demand that's coming, and you'll hear a
- 19:08Speaker 6: lot about data centers using a lot of the electricity.
- 19:11Speaker 6: What nobody is talking about is the amount of power
- 19:14Speaker 6: that's being generated that's being wasted. And I would tell
- 19:17Speaker 6: you we call it demand side management. And we know
- 19:20Speaker 6: because we've done hundreds of thousands of energy audits and
- 19:23Speaker 6: buildings that most buildings operate about thirty percent inefficiently So
- 19:28Speaker 6: just think if we could solve that problem, and if
- 19:30Speaker 6: we can make buildings perform the way they were designed
- 19:33Speaker 6: or assets performed the way they're designed. Just think about
- 19:36Speaker 6: the amount that we could save and the energy that's
- 19:39Speaker 6: being produced and which was obviously has a trickle effect
- 19:42Speaker 6: to the carbon footprint. So that's what train technology is
- 19:44Speaker 6: all about. People always ask me, where do you see
- 19:46Speaker 6: the growth coming from. It's going to be on the
- 19:48Speaker 6: demand side, management side, all.
- 19:50Speaker 3: Right, thanks to train Technology CEO at Dave REGNERI.
- 19:53Speaker 2: We move next to earnings from the wireless carrier T Mobile.
- 19:55Speaker 2: The company reported new monthly mobile phone subscribers that exceeded
- 19:59Speaker 2: analys estimates.
- 20:00Speaker 3: For more on this, we were joined by John Butler,
- 20:01Speaker 3: Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Telecom analyst, and we first asked John
- 20:04Speaker 3: why T Mobile did have such a successful quarter.
- 20:08Speaker 9: You know, it just boils down to this. They lead
- 20:10Speaker 9: in five G and for any wireless carrier, the lifeblood
- 20:15Speaker 9: of the network, the speed of the network, that download
- 20:18Speaker 9: speeds that you get on your phone is dictated by
- 20:22Speaker 9: how much spectrum you own. In plain English, how fat
- 20:26Speaker 9: are your air waves? And the great news for T
- 20:29Speaker 9: Mobile is they have the most spectrum of any of
- 20:33Speaker 9: their competitors, and they have the right amount of spectrum
- 20:37Speaker 9: for five G and we're now seeing it translate into
- 20:40Speaker 9: better results.
- 20:42Speaker 2: And I'll note that our own Charlie Pellett is a
- 20:44Speaker 2: very happy T Mobile customer.
- 20:46Speaker 5: Oh I'm okay, very good.
- 20:49Speaker 2: I didn't really know any You're probably the only two
- 20:51Speaker 2: I know, which says something about the circles I run in,
- 20:54Speaker 2: John Butler, So is this just a share game?
- 20:57Speaker 8: John?
- 20:57Speaker 2: I mean, everybody's got a cell phone's got a cell phone?
- 20:59Speaker 2: So is this just a share game between AT and T,
- 21:02Speaker 2: Verizon and Timo?
- 21:04Speaker 9: It is, Paul. You know, it's really in a way
- 21:06Speaker 9: become a zero sum game. In some ways, there's natural
- 21:10Speaker 9: organic growth as you know, young kids get phones, older
- 21:15Speaker 9: people who have been getting phones post pandemic here. I
- 21:18Speaker 9: think that really shook up enough of the market to
- 21:21Speaker 9: lead to that little bit of growth on the edges.
- 21:25Speaker 9: But the bottom line is it's a very slow growth market,
- 21:29Speaker 9: and so it's all about not only protecting your share,
- 21:32Speaker 9: but taking it away from your competitors. And T Mobile
- 21:36Speaker 9: has you know, people forget that. Really wireless is almost
- 21:41Speaker 9: a retailing game, right, So it's all about branding and
- 21:44Speaker 9: T Mobile has done a brilliant job manufacturing a brand
- 21:50Speaker 9: image that's all about being consumer friendly and low prices,
- 21:55Speaker 9: and so quarter and in quarter out they tend to
- 21:59Speaker 9: lead their peers at and Team Verizon in terms of
- 22:03Speaker 9: net new subscriber growth, and this quarter, in my mind,
- 22:07Speaker 9: they really hit the ball out of the park on
- 22:09Speaker 9: that front.
- 22:10Speaker 3: At some point, will I also get my Internet from
- 22:13Speaker 3: Team Mobile? Like, is this the next area that they
- 22:16Speaker 3: can just start gobbling up share?
- 22:18Speaker 9: Possibly? Actually, if you live in New York, I would
- 22:21Speaker 9: say a definite. Maybe. They've been very cautious in terms
- 22:27Speaker 9: of managing expectations for where their broadband business is going
- 22:32Speaker 9: to go. But T Mobile offers both over the air
- 22:36Speaker 9: broadband called fixed wireless access. You basically put a modem
- 22:40Speaker 9: in your window. It talks to the wireless network and
- 22:44Speaker 9: provides you broadband that way. It's a real set it
- 22:48Speaker 9: and forgeted thing. It's been a major hit with consumers.
- 22:52Speaker 9: Verizon is also a major player there. But Tea Mobile
- 22:55Speaker 9: is also getting into fiber broadband. And when you think
- 23:00Speaker 9: the future of broadband and where it's headed, it really
- 23:04Speaker 9: is going to come down to fiber in the long run.
- 23:07Speaker 9: So I think they're placing the right bets. They're moving
- 23:10Speaker 9: ahead with fixed wireless access for now because they have
- 23:14Speaker 9: excess capacity on the network, but they're reluctant to really
- 23:19Speaker 9: ramp up expectations there because broadband eats up a lot
- 23:23Speaker 9: of that spectrum we were talking about on the network,
- 23:26Speaker 9: So they don't want to endanger their core wireless mobile
- 23:30Speaker 9: business by rolling out too much in the way of
- 23:33Speaker 9: broadband over the air. But I think Fiber hedges their
- 23:37Speaker 9: bets there, and by the way, they over index in
- 23:40Speaker 9: New York. They really have great share in New York
- 23:44Speaker 9: in mobile, so I think broadband is their next foray
- 23:48Speaker 9: for that market.
- 23:49Speaker 2: All right, Thanks to John Butler, Bloomberg Intelligence Senior TELECOMMENTA.
- 23:52Speaker 3: List coming up on the program, a look at quarterly
- 23:54Speaker 3: earnings from it again.
- 23:55Speaker 2: You're listening to Bloomberg Intelligence on Bloomberg Radio, providing in
- 23:58Speaker 2: depth research and data two thousand companies in one hundred
- 24:01Speaker 2: and thirty industries. You can access Bloomberg Intelligence via Bigo
- 24:04Speaker 2: on the terminal on Paul Sweeney.
- 24:05Speaker 3: And am Alex Steele and this is Bloomberg.
- 24:13Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us live
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- 24:20Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen
- 24:23Speaker 1: live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station
- 24:26Speaker 1: Just say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
- 24:31Speaker 3: We move next to the fast food chain McDonald's. This week,
- 24:33Speaker 3: the burger chainsaid it experienced its first sales drop in
- 24:37Speaker 3: four years when it reported second quarter results.
- 24:39Speaker 2: This comes as a company has pledged to launch new
- 24:42Speaker 2: promotions to help offset a decline in customer visits, and
- 24:45Speaker 2: this includes a five dollar value meal deal launched in
- 24:47Speaker 2: the final week of last quarter.
- 24:49Speaker 3: For more on all of this, we are joined by
- 24:50Speaker 3: Michael Hale and Bloomberg Intelligence senior restaurant and food service analyst.
- 24:54Speaker 2: We first asked Michael first key takeaways for McDonald's earnings.
- 24:57Speaker 10: The biggest takeaway is that they still have work to do.
- 24:59Speaker 10: I guess results and as bad as expected. You know,
- 25:02Speaker 10: July data that we've seen is pretty bad, so the
- 25:04Speaker 10: fact that they're still negative isn't really surprising, but they
- 25:08Speaker 10: definitely still have work to do. The five dollars meal
- 25:10Speaker 10: deal seems to be bringing in some traffic. They're hopeful
- 25:12Speaker 10: that you know, the sales will follow, but it hasn't
- 25:15Speaker 10: happened yet, you know, And they talked about the US
- 25:17Speaker 10: really needing a revamp of its one two three dollar
- 25:20Speaker 10: value meal. This company has scale that nobody else does.
- 25:23Speaker 10: They can offer price points that nobody else can. They
- 25:26Speaker 10: have a ton of marketing might So for those reasons,
- 25:29Speaker 10: in this really competitive market where where chains are fighting
- 25:32Speaker 10: hard to track low income consumers, you know, McDonald's definitely
- 25:36Speaker 10: has the tools.
- 25:37Speaker 5: To be in.
- 25:37Speaker 2: For me, the McDonald's experience was always an airport experience
- 25:40Speaker 2: because I always say I could justify it per say, hey,
- 25:43Speaker 2: I'm rushed for time to gonna make my flake hid
- 25:45Speaker 2: something quick. But now all the new airports and like
- 25:47Speaker 2: the renovated Newark Airport, there's no fast food in those
- 25:51Speaker 2: things anymore. You have to sit down and order and
- 25:53Speaker 2: do all that kind of stuff. So that's why that's interesting.
- 25:55Speaker 3: Isn't there fast food? But you it's like nice stuff
- 25:57Speaker 3: like wraps.
- 25:58Speaker 2: Well you get that stuff to go, But I mean
- 26:00Speaker 2: you could always get like some fast food, serious fast food.
- 26:03Speaker 5: All right.
- 26:03Speaker 2: So, Mike, so what's the story for McDonald's here. Do
- 26:06Speaker 2: they open stores, do they rationalize their footprint, what's kind
- 26:09Speaker 2: of the strategy there? In terms of managing their footprint
- 26:12Speaker 2: these days.
- 26:13Speaker 10: Yeah, well they're there and they're investedtily. Late last year
- 26:17Speaker 10: they pushed for more aggressive store openings, right, and so
- 26:21Speaker 10: that's going to continue to be the focus. They're going
- 26:23Speaker 10: to push hard to grow internationally. China obviously is a
- 26:26Speaker 10: big point of focus for them. But yeah, it's going
- 26:29Speaker 10: to be to open stores. But in order to motivate
- 26:33Speaker 10: their franchisees to open stores, they're going to have to,
- 26:36Speaker 10: you know, have a strong marketing program that's going to
- 26:38Speaker 10: pull people into the restaurants, the existing restaurants, grow same
- 26:42Speaker 10: store sales, improve profitability, and make it just a more
- 26:46Speaker 10: attractive proposition for their international and US franchisees to open
- 26:50Speaker 10: new stores.
- 26:50Speaker 3: Didn't they unveil like a five dollars meal thingy, But
- 26:53Speaker 3: that was at the end of the quarter, right, so
- 26:55Speaker 3: we don't really know the full impact of that for McDonald's.
- 26:57Speaker 10: Yes, yes, so on the call, management said that it's
- 27:00Speaker 10: driving traffic but not sales yet. So it seems like
- 27:02Speaker 10: there's some trade down from current customers saying, you know,
- 27:06Speaker 10: well five dollars, I get a lot of food for
- 27:08Speaker 10: that five dollars, So maybe instead of getting a big McNeal,
- 27:10Speaker 10: I'll get this five dollars meal deal. But so it
- 27:13Speaker 10: hasn't really impacted results yet, but they said that, you know,
- 27:18Speaker 10: historically traffic comes before the sales boosts, and so they
- 27:21Speaker 10: seem positive on it in this near term. You know,
- 27:24Speaker 10: they said ninety three percent of franchisees in the US
- 27:27Speaker 10: have agreed to extend this offer deeper into the summer.
- 27:31Speaker 10: So they seem positive on it. But their real focus
- 27:33Speaker 10: is going to have to be on the one, two,
- 27:35Speaker 10: three dollars value menu. That menu isn't resonating with customers, right,
- 27:39Speaker 10: and it seems like a full revamp is in the cards.
- 27:42Speaker 5: You know, they've they've received a lot of.
- 27:44Speaker 10: Shade on social media that you can't find anything on
- 27:47Speaker 10: that menu for a buck, right, and so some reengineering
- 27:50Speaker 10: is going to be necessary here in the United States.
- 27:52Speaker 2: All right, dumb question of the day comes from me.
- 27:55Speaker 2: Never at McDonald's, Burger King, even Starbucks, the drive through
- 27:59Speaker 2: line or the twenty cars deep. I walk inside, I
- 28:03Speaker 2: walk right up to the counter and boom, I'm served.
- 28:05Speaker 2: And if I'm a McDonald's, isn't that a source of
- 28:07Speaker 2: opportunity for me to figure out how to get them
- 28:09Speaker 2: through faster.
- 28:10Speaker 5: Yeah, well, I guess we're lazy.
- 28:12Speaker 10: That's that's the problem, right, But uh no, to your point,
- 28:16Speaker 10: you know, a big percentage. You know, historically the counter
- 28:20Speaker 10: was like say fifteen percent of a drive through restaurant sales,
- 28:23Speaker 10: and historically that's really just been used when the drive
- 28:26Speaker 10: through line is too long and people say, you know,
- 28:28Speaker 10: I don't want to wait that long. I'm gonna go
- 28:30Speaker 10: inside and pick up my stuff. So there is an opportunity,
- 28:33Speaker 10: there's and it's a it's a point of focus for
- 28:35Speaker 10: all of the quick service restaurants we cover. Everybody is
- 28:38Speaker 10: constantly trying to improve their throughput, you know, decrease the
- 28:42Speaker 10: time waiting in line, because they know, if there's you know,
- 28:45Speaker 10: at a certain number of cars for McDonald's, historically it's
- 28:49Speaker 10: been you know, say five or six cars in the
- 28:50Speaker 10: drive through, people will either you know, drive past the
- 28:53Speaker 10: restaurant or maybe they'll say, you know what, I'll park
- 28:55Speaker 10: and come in. But uh that's that's potentially business loss.
- 28:59Speaker 5: Right.
- 28:59Speaker 10: So you know, improving throughput at the drive through, in
- 29:02Speaker 10: at the counter is constantly a point.
- 29:07Speaker 3: I mean in theory, right, you get like an I
- 29:09Speaker 3: thing to do the drive through, right, But that has
- 29:13Speaker 3: been really tough to manage right now, right, it's not
- 29:16Speaker 3: really the best.
- 29:17Speaker 5: It's not working.
- 29:18Speaker 10: I mean, people have they're having a lot of trouble
- 29:21Speaker 10: with accents, not only from you know, international customers, but
- 29:25Speaker 10: also dialects across the United States, so voice ordering and
- 29:30Speaker 10: a lot of these AI initiatives. You know, there's a
- 29:32Speaker 10: lot of potential with them, but they haven't been able
- 29:35Speaker 10: to really pay dividends just yet.
- 29:36Speaker 2: All right, So what is the investment call here, Mike
- 29:39Speaker 2: for some of these fast service McDonald's, Burger King, what's
- 29:43Speaker 2: the investment call here for these names?
- 29:45Speaker 10: Well, they're looking at you know, it's interesting because the
- 29:48Speaker 10: year over your comparisons, base effects get easier into the
- 29:50Speaker 10: second half, but the consumer's weakening, right, and so you
- 29:54Speaker 10: know McDonald said they expect you know, more consumer weakness
- 29:58Speaker 10: over the next few quarters, right, And so there's definitely
- 30:02Speaker 10: concern about about restaurants spending here in the second half.
- 30:05Speaker 5: You know, I think I mentioned it at the top.
- 30:07Speaker 10: McDonald's is well positioned though in you know, periods of distress.
- 30:11Speaker 10: You know, during the Great Recession, they outperform by offering
- 30:14Speaker 10: value that competitors couldn't match, right, and so it's a
- 30:17Speaker 10: very tough environment. But we think McDonald's is positioned pretty
- 30:20Speaker 10: well for such a tough environment.
- 30:23Speaker 3: In the value war where everyone's chasing a smaller part
- 30:26Speaker 3: of everyone's wallet. How do these guys remain profitable? I'm
- 30:30Speaker 3: not saying McDonald's, but like all its competitors too, like
- 30:33Speaker 3: it's sort of a race to the bottom to some perspective,
- 30:35Speaker 3: how does that play out?
- 30:37Speaker 10: It's not just a race to the bottom. So in
- 30:39Speaker 10: terms of the loan, they're trying hard to keep that
- 30:42Speaker 10: low income consumer business, and there's no doubt that that's
- 30:45Speaker 10: a big focus right now, but they're also bringing in
- 30:49Speaker 10: you know, middle income and higher income consumers into the fold, right,
- 30:54Speaker 10: So you also get this traded down effect where you know, yes, sure,
- 30:58Speaker 10: low income consumers are trading down into grosser restore, but
- 31:00Speaker 10: McDonald's and some of their competitors, Jack in the Box
- 31:03Speaker 10: being one, you know, Chipotle, have been able to attract
- 31:06Speaker 10: these higher income consumers that actually come in and buy
- 31:09Speaker 10: premium items and spend more when they come. The problem
- 31:12Speaker 10: is they're just a much lower percentage of the of
- 31:15Speaker 10: the overall traffic. But that's what we've seen over the
- 31:17Speaker 10: last year and a half or so's chains that have
- 31:19Speaker 10: been able to attract these higher income consumers are definitely outperforming.
- 31:22Speaker 2: So where in your overall space there mic on the
- 31:25Speaker 2: restaurant side is the best place to be these days.
- 31:29Speaker 10: It's companies that provide a lot of value and a
- 31:31Speaker 10: very good price point, right and so, you know, like
- 31:34Speaker 10: most earning seasons and industries, you know, a lot of
- 31:37Speaker 10: the top performers end up reporting earnings first, and we've
- 31:41Speaker 10: seen that Chipotle and Texas Roadhouse are two They outperform
- 31:45Speaker 10: everybody on seamsore sales over the last five years and
- 31:48Speaker 10: it's not even there's not even a close second. And
- 31:51Speaker 10: a big reason why they've outperformed by so much is
- 31:53Speaker 10: that customers see a lot of value on that plate
- 31:56Speaker 10: for the price that they pay right and there, and
- 31:59Speaker 10: they're provided a pret good customer experience, and that's what's
- 32:02Speaker 10: bringing people in the door. If you're providing very strong
- 32:06Speaker 10: everyday value and a good in restaurant experience, you know,
- 32:10Speaker 10: clean restaurants, good service, when everything that that entails, then
- 32:13Speaker 10: you're winning, all right.
- 32:14Speaker 3: Thanks to Michael Halen, Bloomberg Intelligence Senior restaurant and food
- 32:17Speaker 3: service analyst, we next.
- 32:18Speaker 2: Take a look at earnings from the Dutch brewer Heineken.
- 32:21Speaker 2: This week, the company report a quarterly profit and revenue
- 32:24Speaker 2: that fell short of analyst expectations.
- 32:26Speaker 3: Heinegansited a nine hundred and forty nine million dollars hit
- 32:28Speaker 3: as at stake in China's largest brewer has fallen in value.
- 32:32Speaker 3: For more on this, we were joined by Duncan Fox,
- 32:33Speaker 3: Bloomberg Intelligence consumer staples analyst.
- 32:36Speaker 2: We first asked Duncan to take us through the laundry
- 32:38Speaker 2: list of things that were a problem for Heinegen.
- 32:40Speaker 11: Well, I suppose the main one was consumer sentiment was
- 32:43Speaker 11: still quite weak, so what they were hoping for was
- 32:47Speaker 11: a bit of a bounce back in Europe for volume
- 32:50Speaker 11: with the euro twenty four, but unfortunately the weather was
- 32:53Speaker 11: just again four in northern Europe, so that was a
- 32:56Speaker 11: his In China, it's just that China Resources a share
- 33:01Speaker 11: price has been below the price they bought it for
- 33:05Speaker 11: about four or five months now, and the accounting system
- 33:08Speaker 11: means they have to take that hit. So if if
- 33:11Speaker 11: that share price goes back up again whenever the Chinese
- 33:14Speaker 11: economy recovers, then they'll get some sort of recovery from that.
- 33:19Speaker 11: But I can't tell you when that will be, so
- 33:20Speaker 11: it's just double consumer.
- 33:22Speaker 2: So what is Heineken saying about just underlying demand in general?
- 33:26Speaker 2: What are they saying about the consumer and is there
- 33:28Speaker 2: regional differences?
- 33:29Speaker 11: I guess basically the consumer's been hit by inflation curvac
- 33:36Speaker 11: years from double digit pricing, and I think they're just
- 33:39Speaker 11: pairing back. The big problem is that people are not
- 33:42Speaker 11: really going to the partner as much the entrade that's
- 33:45Speaker 11: where they make great profit. Well in Europe, it's certainly
- 33:48Speaker 11: been the case in places like Africa where you've had
- 33:52Speaker 11: devaluation as well. You've just got a working way through
- 33:55Speaker 11: that and they've done a very good job actually, but
- 33:59Speaker 11: you still have short term issue where you know, Nigeria
- 34:03Speaker 11: is a big, big market for them and you get
- 34:05Speaker 11: a massive devaluation and so they're just working their way
- 34:09Speaker 11: through all these issues. They're doing actually quite a good
- 34:11Speaker 11: job on the ground. But weather was the real thing
- 34:14Speaker 11: that was a surprise. I mean, the upgraded guidance a little,
- 34:17Speaker 11: but I think people are expecting a bit more because
- 34:19Speaker 11: of the Euro twenty four.
- 34:21Speaker 3: So Paul brought up sort of those mixed infused cocktails
- 34:25Speaker 3: and stuff. I can get the mimosa in a can.
- 34:28Speaker 3: It's not terrible at all. Does Heineken have exposure to
- 34:31Speaker 3: that kind of stuff and is that sort of eroding
- 34:33Speaker 3: the appeal of beer at all?
- 34:35Speaker 11: Well, beers getting it from each from every angle really,
- 34:38Speaker 11: because you're seeing a lot of these new odd drinks.
- 34:41Speaker 11: I probably grew with.
- 34:41Speaker 8: Poorn and that once.
- 34:42Speaker 11: Some of them are a bit weird. But they've got Desperado,
- 34:46Speaker 11: which is a spirit tasted beer, tequila based beer, which
- 34:49Speaker 11: is doing very well. So they have got things that
- 34:53Speaker 11: they can attack these products with. But you need to
- 34:57Speaker 11: keep basically innovating with new things all the time. You know,
- 35:02Speaker 11: Diazu're doing a pretty good job on trying to do that.
- 35:05Speaker 11: But the problem is some of these don't last very
- 35:07Speaker 11: long the eighteen months and then things sort of fall
- 35:10Speaker 11: off a cliff, So you've got to sort of keep
- 35:13Speaker 11: replacing them otherwise you're getting to a bit of trouble. Actually,
- 35:16Speaker 11: the Hearneken one's doing well, but they just haven't come
- 35:18Speaker 11: up with innovation in that area. It's probably not their
- 35:20Speaker 11: key area for them.
- 35:21Speaker 2: Is Hanegan calling out different regions of the world behaving
- 35:24Speaker 2: differently as the US market stronger than the European.
- 35:27Speaker 3: If you have a nice beach, your sales are up exactly.
- 35:31Speaker 11: Well, certainly it's the suns out. They're not that big.
- 35:33Speaker 11: In the US Latin America, they're big, and they've they've
- 35:37Speaker 11: been they've taken quite a lot of costs out. They
- 35:40Speaker 11: were importing bottles to Brazil, for instance, which is a
- 35:43Speaker 11: huge market for them, so they've taken the cost down.
- 35:45Speaker 11: So it's not particularly great consumer environment there, but the
- 35:49Speaker 11: profits are improving because you know, they've realigned their cost space.
- 35:54Speaker 11: In Asia, they're bouncing back from a really horrid time
- 35:57Speaker 11: last year where.
- 35:57Speaker 6: The economy is.
- 35:58Speaker 11: Vietnam in particular, had a terrible time in sort of
- 36:02Speaker 11: Q two and Q three last year. That's bouncing back.
- 36:05Speaker 11: I wouldn't say the beer market because of regulation, is buoyant,
- 36:10Speaker 11: but they're gaining share and they've done innovation on the beer.
- 36:14Speaker 11: Beer market there there seems to be working very well.
- 36:16Speaker 11: So there are a few issues in Asia that they've
- 36:18Speaker 11: still got to overcome. China some quite a chunky bit
- 36:23Speaker 11: of their market now, so they need to see that
- 36:26Speaker 11: economy improved. Places like Cambodia have got a bit of
- 36:29Speaker 11: an issue in the short term because of the economic growth.
- 36:32Speaker 11: So just a case of good old policies from governments
- 36:37Speaker 11: turning the economies around. I'm surely get a bit happier
- 36:40Speaker 11: with book. We'd life and people then go out and
- 36:43Speaker 11: buy beer.
- 36:44Speaker 3: Thanks to Duncan Fox, Bloomberg Intelligence Consumer Staples Analyst.
- 36:48Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast, available on Apples, by
- 36:52Speaker 1: the Pie and anywhere else you will get your podcasts.
- 36:54Speaker 1: Listen live each weekday ten am to noon Eastern on
- 36:58Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot com, the IR Radio app, tune In, and
- 37:01Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch us live
- 37:04Speaker 1: every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg terminal