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Cease Fire! | Yaron Brook Show · Yaron Brook Show

• 0:14
  Speaker 1: Oh, a lot of fundamental principles out legal, rational, self
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: interest and individual wise.
• 0:26
  Speaker 2: This is the Brook Show. Oh right, everybody, welcome to
• 0:33
  Speaker 2: your own book show on.
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: This uh Wednesday, April eighth, at least, well, no, it's
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: Wednesday on the East coast where I am, it's Tuesday.
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: It's Tuesday, April seventh. It's uh ten pm on on
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: the West coast. I appreciate you joining me. Some of
• 0:54
  Speaker 1: you are uh actually here. Uh, thank you.
• 0:57
  Speaker 2: Uh. Let me just get this sauce set up up.
• 1:00
  Speaker 2: Thank you for joining me.
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: I just want to make sure sound is good.
• 1:05
  Speaker 2: Can you guys hear me on the chat? Everything everything good?
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: Let me just see that flood, all right. Some of
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: you in Europe, I see seven am. Some of you
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: maybe in Israel, maybe elsewhere. I was at a conference
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: all day. I was at a conference all day, and
• 1:29
  Speaker 1: I'll be at a comfort all day tomorrow, and I
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: figured I should probably get on here and at least
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: comment and give you some insight into what is going on.
• 1:40
  Speaker 2: Update you on the.
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: News of basically a ceasefire between the United States and Iran,
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: and Israel is.
• 1:47
  Speaker 2: A part of the cease fire.
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: Now, there's still a lot of information that's not completely clear,
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: a lot of different floating stories about what exactly is
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: included in the ceasefire.
• 1:58
  Speaker 2: So uh, you know everything I.
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: Say being fog of war, uh, breaking news, how to
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: tell exactly what's going on? But uh, but you know,
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: we'll spend the next I don't know, thirty minutes, forty
• 2:11
  Speaker 1: minutes uh talking about this.
• 2:14
  Speaker 2: Uh. This is UH.
• 2:15
  Speaker 1: I don't expect a large live audience at this time
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: of day. I know some of you again in Europe,
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: so you're you're, you're coming on board.
• 2:25
  Speaker 2: Uh.
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: But uh, but I did wanna react, and I wanna
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: give you an update. I wanna give you my s
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: initial assessment. I emphasize the initial because we don't know, uh,
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: the full scope of this.
• 2:36
  Speaker 2: Let me just name I. I a principle that.
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: I think is is really crucial and and this is
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: a principle that's always be true and always is true
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: and and continues to be true.
• 2:46
  Speaker 2: And that is that negotiating with evil.
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: When good negotiates with evil, particularly in a case where
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: the good is powerful and evil is weak, which is
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: often the case, the good has nothing to gain from
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: the negotiations.
• 3:03
  Speaker 2: There's nothing the evil can give the good.
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: That the good cannot attain by itself in the case
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: of a war through military force. There are no values
• 3:19
  Speaker 1: that evil produces, creates, builds, makes that it can provide
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: the good. There never has been any reason for the
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: United States to negotiate with you on.
• 3:34
  Speaker 2: And there still is no reason to negotiate with you on.
• 3:39
  Speaker 2: But here's the thing.
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: When you don't plan, when you don't have a coherent,
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: long run plan for fighting a war, for achieving victory,
• 3:53
  Speaker 1: for dealing with the obvious challenges that can arise during
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: a war, you find yourself stuck. And in this case,
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: we all know what the lack of planning.
• 4:06
  Speaker 2: What it means.
• 4:07
  Speaker 1: In this context, the fundamental issue in this war has
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: been one a lack of strategic coherence.
• 4:16
  Speaker 2: The very fact that regime change was not at the top.
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: Of the list of goals has been a weakness from
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: the beginning of this campaign.
• 4:27
  Speaker 2: Regime change.
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: Regime change to some kind of regime that is friendly
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: to the United States and that is not religiously fanatic,
• 4:38
  Speaker 1: is the only way that you can secure long term piece.
• 4:43
  Speaker 2: It's the only way to achieve the kind.
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: Of geopolitical earthquake revolution that I argued would happen if
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: the Iranian regime would fall. It's the only way to
• 4:57
  Speaker 1: secure that the Iran won't use the revenues that will
• 5:00
  Speaker 1: still have at the end of all this to rebuild
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: the missile program, to rebuild a nuclear program, to rebuild whatever.
• 5:07
  Speaker 1: Everything that Iran has lost it can rebuild now. Granted,
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: even if it all ends today, Iran is, you know,
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: dramatically weaker than it used to be on most fronts,
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: with exception of one.
• 5:21
  Speaker 2: We'll get to what that one is.
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: It's dramatically weaker than it was before, and it will
• 5:27
  Speaker 1: take it a long time and a lot of money
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: to rebuild. And of course during that time, it's quite possible,
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: maybe even likely, that the Ranian people will rebeil and
• 5:40
  Speaker 1: there will be regime change. So it's very, very possible
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: the regime change will come about, in spite of the
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: fact that regime change was not a primary focus of
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: this administration in the war, at least didn't set it
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: up as a strategic goal of the war. So there's
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: a good chance the Iranian people will rebel against this,
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: admit against their rulers they were pressors after this war
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: is over. But there's no guarantee of that, and in particular,
• 6:12
  Speaker 1: if the regime can project itself as a victor, as
• 6:17
  Speaker 1: the victor of this it, it might be more difficult
• 6:21
  Speaker 1: to rebel against it. So one, there was no at
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: the beginning, there was no emphasis on regime change.
• 6:28
  Speaker 2: There was no focus on regime change. There was no UH.
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: That was not a strategic goal, and you know, the
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: consequences of that are that you don't get the kind
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: of resolution to the Iran problem that is lasting, permanent,
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: and that is.
• 6:49
  Speaker 2: Secure. The second UH strategic fault here, which is, you.
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: Know, a step below that that would be a the
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: big goal would be regime changed, but a step below
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: is an understanding that in any conflict with Iran, the
• 7:04
  Speaker 1: one weapon they have. They don't have nukes, they have
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: ballistic missiles, but those bilistic missiles can only do so
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: much damage given the the air defense systems that Israel
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: has and the Gulf State has and the United States has.
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: The only weapon that Iran has and this was true
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: from day one. The only weapon that Ion has that
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: can truly do damage to the United States, they can
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: really do damage to the world, is the ability to
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: block the states of homos and the reality the fact
• 7:42
  Speaker 1: that the administration is not planned for this from day one,
• 7:47
  Speaker 1: that there wasn't a execution on how to keep the
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: states open. What was the military solution to the problem
• 7:57
  Speaker 1: of Iran closing the straits? It boggers the mind that
• 8:07
  Speaker 1: such a plan did not exist, and all indications are that,
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: you know, maybe the Pentagon had plans.
• 8:15
  Speaker 2: The military has plans.
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: I mean that is for sure, the military has had
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: plans on how to open the streets for foremost for decades.
• 8:23
  Speaker 2: But that the political level that.
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: Trump and HEXA did not take that seriously and did
• 8:28
  Speaker 1: not make that a priority from day one.
• 8:31
  Speaker 2: Of the war.
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: Is the reason why America finds itself over a month
• 8:37
  Speaker 1: into the war, in a position where.
• 8:41
  Speaker 2: Its back is to the wall.
• 8:43
  Speaker 1: It all it can do is keep bombing it threatened,
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: But in the meantime, all prices have almost doubled.
• 8:51
  Speaker 2: Your supply is constrained.
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: L and G markets are really really tight. There is
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: global pressure in the United States to relieve the pressure
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: on oil. Stock market is down, although not a lot,
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: I should say it surprisingly is not declined much. But
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: the United States put itself in this position. It should
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: have done everything in spower and the United States has
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: the military capabilities to do this to make sure the
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: states of home wones are not closed, and it didn't.
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: And the consequence of that is that the Trump has
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: allowed himself to be cornered ever escalating threats on Iran.
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna blow you up, I'm.
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  Speaker 2: Gonna destroy your civilization.
• 9:47
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna destroy every power plans and every oil field
• 9:50
  Speaker 1: and every this and every that I mean threats, they
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: were always unlikely to actually be you know, lived up to,
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: you know, just just.
• 10:02
  Speaker 2: Continuously threat and it was obvious that since he wasn't
• 10:09
  Speaker 2: really going to do any of.
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  Speaker 1: That, that he would have to give in and he
• 10:15
  Speaker 1: would have to cut a deal. Now, it's also true
• 10:18
  Speaker 1: that the Iranians are desperate. Now let's be very clear here.
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: You know, the Iranians have been crushed the you know,
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: the the Ausraelians have been taking out their petro chemical plants. Basically,
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: they've taken out all of their petro chemical plants. They've
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: took up their steel plants, they were taking out their railroads,
• 10:41
  Speaker 1: they were taking out the US to cut some bridges.
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  Speaker 2: There is a.
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  Speaker 1: They of course, the capacity to build missiles, the capacity
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: to build drones, the capacity to.
• 10:55
  Speaker 2: Do all those things.
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  Speaker 1: The military capabilities have been crushed, thousands and thousands of
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: IRGC GC troops to be killed. Leadership of both the
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: political leadership and the military leadership has been eviscerated.
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  Speaker 2: They've taken huge hits.
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  Speaker 1: So you know they're interested in stopping this and slowing
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  Speaker 1: this down, in getting part of this over with.
• 11:22
  Speaker 2: Trump is interested in doing that. And of course.
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: Iran has nothing to lose from the ceasefire. Nothing buys
• 11:31
  Speaker 1: them two weeks of survival which they might not have
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  Speaker 1: had if there were two weeks of bombings. There's no loss.
• 11:38
  Speaker 2: Now.
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: The cease fire is basically the United States and is
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: always stop bombing you on. At least this is what
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: it seems like it is.
• 11:47
  Speaker 2: There's still some disagreeing about the details.
• 11:50
  Speaker 1: Israel in the United States will stop bombing you on,
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  Speaker 1: and Iran will open up the straits of Homos. Now
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: what is opening up the states of whom was mean? Unclear?
• 12:00
  Speaker 2: So they are conflicting reports.
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: Some reports coming out saying Iran will continue to charge
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: a two million dollar toll fee for any ship that
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: goes by and use that for reconstruction.
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  Speaker 2: The idea.
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: That the world economy should take pay a two million
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: dollar penalty for every ship that comes out, so that
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: Iran can rebuild, rebuild what it's military capabilities.
• 12:25
  Speaker 2: That's exactly what this war was supposed to eviscerate forever.
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: So Iran opens up the straits and foremoes Israel in
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  Speaker 1: the United States stop bombing, and.
• 12:39
  Speaker 2: That's it.
• 12:39
  Speaker 1: Other provisions are hard to really make clear, so it's
• 12:44
  Speaker 1: not clear. For example, if the ceasefire applies to Israel's
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: attack on Fasbell Line, Lebanon, the Pakistanis who were the
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: go betweens and negotiating this deal, say yes, it applies
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: to Lebanon, Entrisbella, the Israeli So no, it doesn't. You know,
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: we're gonna continue to go off to Grisbela. It doesn't
• 13:06
  Speaker 1: apply to that. We'll see.
• 13:08
  Speaker 2: We'll probably know a lot more tomorrow the day after.
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: This idea that the Ranians will continue to take a
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: toll as ships leave to allow ships that leave. We'll
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: see if that holds up. It is opening up the
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: Straits of Homemores. Does that mean going back to one
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: hundred and twenty hundred and thirty ships moving through the
• 13:31
  Speaker 1: straits a day. I've heard that the Ranians have only
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: agreed for twelve to fifteen, so only about ten percent
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: is that true? Not clear what exactly opening up the
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: straits of Hormoes means. In the meantime, the United States
• 13:51
  Speaker 1: has agreed to start negotiating with the Ranians. It's given
• 13:54
  Speaker 1: them two weeks to cut a deal. To finalize the deal,
• 13:57
  Speaker 1: they will be meeting in Islamabad on The scary part
• 14:01
  Speaker 1: of that is that it will be JD. Vance leading
• 14:05
  Speaker 1: the American delegation in Islamabad. Jdvans, who was never pro
• 14:09
  Speaker 1: this war, who never thought this was a good idea
• 14:13
  Speaker 1: and is pretty anti Israel, anti West, more broadly, pro Russia,
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: pro Iran, probably will be leading the American side of
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: the negotiations. Trump has said that the basis of the
• 14:30
  Speaker 1: negotiations will be Iran's ten point plan. Iran's ten point
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: plan is awful. I mean, it has nothing of what
• 14:41
  Speaker 1: the United States has demanded. He has the ten points
• 14:43
  Speaker 1: that Iran has proposed, right permanent war, end end to
• 14:48
  Speaker 1: regional conflicts, the ssation of hostility across the region, including
• 14:52
  Speaker 1: proxy conflicts. So that means Israel has to stop with
• 14:55
  Speaker 1: Rizbelah and stop with ramas I guess security guarantees binding
• 14:59
  Speaker 1: US and his race commitments against future strikes in Iran
• 15:02
  Speaker 1: or its territory. So notice all these are for Iran,
• 15:05
  Speaker 1: complete sanctions lifting, remove all the primary and secondary sanctions,
• 15:09
  Speaker 1: plus release of frozen assets. We're talking about billions of
• 15:12
  Speaker 1: dollars of frozen assets, reconstruction, aid and compensation. So the
• 15:18
  Speaker 1: US and Israel are going to fund for war damages.
• 15:21
  Speaker 2: To the infrastructure in Iran.
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: Straits of Homo's protocol, Iran will be able to regulate
• 15:30
  Speaker 1: safe passage under Iranian Military coordination and technical oversight. Seven
• 15:35
  Speaker 1: two million dollar fee per ship Iuran to impose and
• 15:38
  Speaker 1: collect fees from all passing vessels to fund reconstruction.
• 15:42
  Speaker 2: Eight Cessation of Israeli strikes and Krisbala that was really
• 15:46
  Speaker 2: under two already. Nine Protection of regional allies.
• 15:52
  Speaker 1: That is a guarantee that regional allies like the Houdis
• 15:56
  Speaker 1: and Krisbala and hamas I guess will now be attacked
• 15:59
  Speaker 1: by US in Israel. And ten sovereign rights recognition. Acceptance
• 16:03
  Speaker 1: of enriched enrichment under the uh You know, basically the
• 16:09
  Speaker 1: idea that Iran has a right to.
• 16:12
  Speaker 2: Enrich in v uranium.
• 16:14
  Speaker 1: Nothing here about missiles, nothing here about not using proxies
• 16:20
  Speaker 1: to to destabilize the region. Nothing here about shrinking the military,
• 16:26
  Speaker 1: and nothing here about handing over enriched uranium and stopping
• 16:30
  Speaker 1: an enrichment program.
• 16:31
  Speaker 2: Nothing about that, nothing about.
• 16:32
  Speaker 1: The nuclear program I other than a declaration that they
• 16:35
  Speaker 1: have a right to continue to enrich I mean this
• 16:39
  Speaker 1: ten point program. I mean, why have a war right
• 16:45
  Speaker 1: if you canna give them all this now? He's not
• 16:48
  Speaker 1: the Trump won't And this is the starting bow. I
• 16:50
  Speaker 1: even start there. There's nothing there. Again, what does Iran
• 16:54
  Speaker 1: have to offer the United States? The United States does
• 16:56
  Speaker 1: not have already a right to oh, open up the
• 16:59
  Speaker 1: states of Formo as well, the streates will open Before
• 17:01
  Speaker 1: the war, what have you gained exactly? You've gone back
• 17:04
  Speaker 1: to the same position you will before the war. Yes,
• 17:08
  Speaker 1: a lot of stuff has happened, but you haven't got
• 17:10
  Speaker 1: the uranium.
• 17:12
  Speaker 2: You haven't changed the regime. What is I mean? Stuff
• 17:19
  Speaker 2: is being achieved.
• 17:20
  Speaker 1: Granted, I keep saying Iran is in a weaker position,
• 17:24
  Speaker 1: but the aims of the war, which is PRIINALI to
• 17:26
  Speaker 1: stop them from getting nuclear weapons, that hasn't stopped. Again,
• 17:30
  Speaker 1: regime hasn't changed. And yeah, you get the straits of
• 17:32
  Speaker 1: Homon open Homos open. They will open before the war.
• 17:36
  Speaker 1: Think about the billions and billions and billions, tens hundreds
• 17:39
  Speaker 1: of billions of dollars, tens of billions of dollars that
• 17:41
  Speaker 1: the United States has spent on this war. And it's
• 17:43
  Speaker 1: going to get the Straits of Homos opened, which was
• 17:46
  Speaker 1: opened before.
• 17:48
  Speaker 2: And what is Iran yet?
• 17:49
  Speaker 1: Well, we'll see, we'll see what happens in these negotiations.
• 17:56
  Speaker 1: You know, truly stunning. This is Trump saying earlier tonight,
• 18:03
  Speaker 1: about an hour ago, a big day for world peace.
• 18:07
  Speaker 1: Peace of it right. Eon wants it to happen. They've
• 18:12
  Speaker 1: had enough, likewise, so as everyone else. In other words,
• 18:15
  Speaker 1: we've had enough to the United States of America will
• 18:18
  Speaker 1: be helping with traffic build up in the Straits of Homos.
• 18:21
  Speaker 1: I don't know what that means. So we'll be helping
• 18:24
  Speaker 1: get the boats out. There'll be lots of positive action,
• 18:27
  Speaker 1: like what, big money will be made, Oh, big money
• 18:30
  Speaker 1: will be made by whom Eon can start the reconstruction process.
• 18:35
  Speaker 1: We'll be loading up with supplies of all kinds and
• 18:38
  Speaker 1: just hanging around in order to make sure that everything
• 18:41
  Speaker 1: goes well. I feel confident that it will just like
• 18:45
  Speaker 1: we're experiencing in the United States. This could be the
• 18:47
  Speaker 1: golden age of the Middle East. Nothing about nuclear nothing
• 18:52
  Speaker 1: about missiles, nothing about proxies, nothing about the strategic goals
• 18:59
  Speaker 1: that he Trump identified as the reasons for war, and
• 19:04
  Speaker 1: of course.
• 19:06
  Speaker 2: Nothing about regime change.
• 19:07
  Speaker 1: Of course, Trump has been arguing for days now that
• 19:09
  Speaker 1: the regime has already changed. But the reality is the
• 19:13
  Speaker 1: only regime change that should be acceptable is no well
• 19:18
  Speaker 1: as no religion, no hostility to the United States at
• 19:24
  Speaker 1: the top, and that the regime has not changed. The
• 19:27
  Speaker 1: same regime as always, just different people, same regime now
• 19:34
  Speaker 1: is all in them was panicking throughout and no statement
• 19:38
  Speaker 1: for the Israeli government, nothing nothing to these really people. Indeed,
• 19:42
  Speaker 1: after the cease fire was announced, is All kept getting
• 19:45
  Speaker 1: barrages of missiles from Iran, so the dubai and Saudi Arabia.
• 19:50
  Speaker 2: That's part of the problem. It's to be expected, I guess, because.
• 19:55
  Speaker 1: Of the way the Iranian GC has functioned, the regional commanders.
• 20:02
  Speaker 1: You know, I'm disconnected from the center because the command
• 20:07
  Speaker 1: control has been destroyed, so they are fiving missiles independent
• 20:11
  Speaker 1: of the center. And if the Senate cuts a deal,
• 20:13
  Speaker 1: how are these people are.
• 20:15
  Speaker 2: Going to find out about it.
• 20:16
  Speaker 1: Their lines of communication are mostly being cut, so it
• 20:19
  Speaker 1: was expected they would take a few hours, maybe a
• 20:21
  Speaker 1: day before the regional officers would find out. Anyway, it's
• 20:26
  Speaker 1: always panicking. They continue to bomb you on while they
• 20:29
  Speaker 1: were being bombed. But they stopped at some point. But
• 20:34
  Speaker 1: after a while they came out and they said, oh, no, no, no, right,
• 20:37
  Speaker 1: And this is typical of politicians, right.
• 20:39
  Speaker 2: They don't want to you know.
• 20:41
  Speaker 1: Ntennio does not want to say Trump stabbed me in
• 20:45
  Speaker 1: the back, so he basically said. They basically came out
• 20:48
  Speaker 1: and said senior Israeli political official. No official statement the
• 20:52
  Speaker 1: US coordinated the temporaries fire with is early in advance.
• 20:56
  Speaker 2: Unlikely.
• 20:57
  Speaker 1: This is a move in which Iran is opening straits
• 20:59
  Speaker 1: of home without accepting any of its demands in advance,
• 21:03
  Speaker 1: such as a commitment to a final cessation of the war,
• 21:05
  Speaker 1: receiving compensation, lifting the heavy sanctions against.
• 21:08
  Speaker 2: It, and more.
• 21:10
  Speaker 1: Senior Trumpet administration officials have made it clear to Israel
• 21:14
  Speaker 1: during the negotiations that will take place in the next
• 21:16
  Speaker 1: two weeks, the US will firmly insist on removing the
• 21:20
  Speaker 1: nuclear material, stopping enrichment, eliminating the threat of ballistic missiles,
• 21:26
  Speaker 1: and more. One can hope these are shared goals of
• 21:32
  Speaker 1: Israel in the United States. Ran backed down from its
• 21:36
  Speaker 1: demands and gave into the demand to open the straits
• 21:39
  Speaker 1: under the massive crushing of the regime's infrastructure since the
• 21:42
  Speaker 1: outbreak of the war.
• 21:43
  Speaker 2: And even more so in recent days. So that's kind
• 21:46
  Speaker 2: of the official.
• 21:50
  Speaker 1: Is really a statement again mixed messages about whether whether
• 22:01
  Speaker 1: one second you know whether this this is UH includes
• 22:08
  Speaker 1: Israel's fight against Lisbella or not. We'll see again, probably tomorrow,
• 22:11
  Speaker 1: we'll get more insight into that.
• 22:16
  Speaker 2: Note that.
• 22:19
  Speaker 1: The United States has not proved, it has not shown
• 22:21
  Speaker 1: the Iranians or anybody else in the world that it
• 22:24
  Speaker 1: can indeed open the states of Homos, that it can
• 22:28
  Speaker 1: use military force to get it open.
• 22:32
  Speaker 2: What does that mean?
• 22:34
  Speaker 1: That means that anytime the Ranians want to, they can
• 22:37
  Speaker 1: shut the Homo straight, and with the full knowledge that
• 22:41
  Speaker 1: the United States cannot or at least has not shown
• 22:44
  Speaker 1: a willingness to open it militarily. Anytime they want to
• 22:48
  Speaker 1: squeeze the Americans for more, shut down the Homo straight.
• 22:52
  Speaker 2: And then what happens.
• 22:54
  Speaker 1: It takes months, I mean, imagine they do it's a
• 22:56
  Speaker 1: year for now. It takes months for the United States
• 22:58
  Speaker 1: to build up the military force in order to do this,
• 23:01
  Speaker 1: and they're more likely to negotiate because they don't want
• 23:03
  Speaker 1: They've just shown in a war forty days they have
• 23:07
  Speaker 1: shown that they're not willing to use force to open
• 23:10
  Speaker 1: the Homo Straits.
• 23:12
  Speaker 2: This has given the Iranians an incredibly powerful weapon.
• 23:17
  Speaker 1: I think ultimately they might even give up the uranium
• 23:20
  Speaker 1: because they realize that in a sense, they've got the
• 23:23
  Speaker 1: world economy by the balls, and if the United States
• 23:27
  Speaker 1: is not willing to go in there with force to
• 23:30
  Speaker 1: open up the straits, nobody will. And as a consequence,
• 23:34
  Speaker 1: they can do what they want. They can do what
• 23:36
  Speaker 1: they want, and that I think is the worst thing
• 23:38
  Speaker 1: about this. By giving in to them, by recognizing Iran's
• 23:45
  Speaker 1: ability to close the Homo Straits and not being willing
• 23:47
  Speaker 1: to confront that directly and militarily, Israel has given the
• 23:52
  Speaker 1: Iranians an incredibly powerful weapon that they can use for
• 23:56
  Speaker 1: years to come, years to come.
• 24:00
  Speaker 2: It's it's a tragedy, a real tragedy in that sense.
• 24:06
  Speaker 1: Now, I again there's there's conflict about whether the Iranians can.
• 24:13
  Speaker 2: Are gonna charge a toll or not charge a toll.
• 24:18
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean the Gulf States, Yue and in Saudi
• 24:21
  Speaker 1: Arabia were lobbying against this deal. Israel's lobbying against this deal,
• 24:27
  Speaker 1: and Trump decided to go ahead anyway because his credibility
• 24:30
  Speaker 1: was at stake. Right, he had promised to destroy Iranian
• 24:34
  Speaker 1: civilization forever.
• 24:36
  Speaker 2: It's a stupid it's a stupid.
• 24:40
  Speaker 1: You know, thing to claim that you will do. He
• 24:43
  Speaker 1: was never gonna be able to live up to that.
• 24:46
  Speaker 1: I might as well negotiate a deal rather than suffer
• 24:48
  Speaker 1: the consequences of of of you know, it's a way
• 24:51
  Speaker 1: to say face, Oh I got a deal. I made
• 24:53
  Speaker 1: this amazing deal. Now the Iranians, two different entities within
• 25:01
  Speaker 1: Iran published commentary on the deal. The National Security Council
• 25:08
  Speaker 1: of Iwan came out and said, yeah, we won, We've
• 25:11
  Speaker 1: won the war. Trump is capitulated on everything. Basically, he's
• 25:16
  Speaker 1: accepted our ten point plan as the basis for negotiations.
• 25:21
  Speaker 1: He could have insisted on his fifteen point plan as
• 25:24
  Speaker 1: the base of negotiation. No, he accepted a ten anyway.
• 25:28
  Speaker 1: They basically declared themselves winners and declared this a massive
• 25:36
  Speaker 1: failure of the Trump administration, and they put the statement
• 25:40
  Speaker 1: out and you can find it online anyway. CNN reported
• 25:44
  Speaker 1: this right, and Trump was furious.
• 25:49
  Speaker 2: So this is Donald Trump.
• 25:50
  Speaker 1: The alleged statement put out by CNN World News as
• 25:53
  Speaker 1: a fraud. As CNN well knows, the false statement was
• 25:57
  Speaker 1: linked to a fake news site from Nigeria and of
• 26:00
  Speaker 1: course immediately picked up by CNN and blared out as
• 26:03
  Speaker 1: a legitimate headline. Not sure, not from Nigeria, actually from Iran.
• 26:08
  Speaker 1: The official statement by Iran was just released and posted
• 26:12
  Speaker 1: on truth below. Authorities are looking to determine whether or
• 26:16
  Speaker 1: not a crime was committed on the issuance of the
• 26:19
  Speaker 1: fake CNN World statement. Notice how he's threatening persecution when
• 26:24
  Speaker 1: CNN reports something he doesn't like or was it a
• 26:27
  Speaker 1: sick rogue player, CNN is being ordered to immediately ordered.
• 26:32
  Speaker 2: CNN is immediately ordered.
• 26:34
  Speaker 1: To withdraw the statement with full apologies for the as
• 26:37
  Speaker 1: usual terrible reporting. Results of the investigation will be announced
• 26:41
  Speaker 1: in the near future. So there's your first amendment gone
• 26:45
  Speaker 1: out the window. As Donald Trump threatens CNN right a
• 26:51
  Speaker 1: few hours later, three hours later, he writes, no one
• 26:55
  Speaker 1: can believe that fake new CNN put out a knowingly
• 26:59
  Speaker 1: false and dangerous, pretending it came from the upper levels
• 27:01
  Speaker 1: of the Uranian government.
• 27:03
  Speaker 2: It actually did, It didn't.
• 27:06
  Speaker 1: It was totally made up and posted as a headline
• 27:08
  Speaker 1: for purpose of perhaps inflamed a very delicate situation. It
• 27:12
  Speaker 1: was a new trouble making sight from Nigeria and CNN
• 27:17
  Speaker 1: just caught got caught cheating a very dangerous thing to do.
• 27:23
  Speaker 2: That is that is CNN.
• 27:28
  Speaker 1: The title of the title of the thing was I
• 27:30
  Speaker 1: won claims victory, says it forced us to accept.
• 27:33
  Speaker 2: Ten point plan. You know that.
• 27:37
  Speaker 1: You can find the statement online, a statement of Supreme
• 27:40
  Speaker 1: National Security Council in the name of God, the most Passionate,
• 27:44
  Speaker 1: most merciful, and you can read the whole thing. But
• 27:48
  Speaker 1: but yeah, they're basically claiming success. They're attributing the decision
• 27:53
  Speaker 1: to Kamini the Sun and uh, you know, they go
• 27:59
  Speaker 1: after the malign to global Zionism and as convinced the
• 28:03
  Speaker 1: ignorant US president that this war would finish Iran and
• 28:06
  Speaker 1: by eliminating this last bastion of humanity, they would there
• 28:10
  Speaker 1: therefore commit any crime against anyone with ease. So I mean,
• 28:15
  Speaker 1: no changing rhetoric. This does not seem like any Iran
• 28:19
  Speaker 1: Is that is you know. And the other statement that
• 28:23
  Speaker 1: came from the Minister of Foreign Affairs is.
• 28:29
  Speaker 2: You know is more.
• 28:30
  Speaker 1: Moderate, but it says on behalf of the Islamic Republic
• 28:32
  Speaker 1: if Irana express gratitude and appreciation for idea. Brothers the
• 28:37
  Speaker 1: Prime Minister of Pakistan and so the Prime Minister Yeah,
• 28:42
  Speaker 1: in response to the brotherly request, the Pm Sharif Pakistan
• 28:46
  Speaker 1: in his tweet and considering the request by the US
• 28:50
  Speaker 1: for negotiations based on its fifteen point proposal as well
• 28:53
  Speaker 1: as announce my bipotus about acceptance acceptance of the general
• 29:00
  Speaker 1: framework of Iran's ten point proposal as a basis for negotiation.
• 29:05
  Speaker 1: Hereby declare on behalf of the Iranian Supreme National Security Council, Yeah,
• 29:12
  Speaker 1: if attacks against Iran halted, a powerful armed forces will
• 29:16
  Speaker 1: cease their defensive operations for a period of two weeks.
• 29:20
  Speaker 1: Safe passions through the States of Homoes will be possible
• 29:22
  Speaker 1: by coordination with Iran's armed forces and would due consideration
• 29:26
  Speaker 1: of technical limitations.
• 29:28
  Speaker 2: I mean, it's it's just disgusting.
• 29:36
  Speaker 1: It's just disgusting that the United States of America, the
• 29:40
  Speaker 1: mightiest military force and planet Earth.
• 29:43
  Speaker 2: Would in all of human history. Would you know, just accept.
• 29:51
  Speaker 1: I Uranian terms and it would use their ten points
• 29:55
  Speaker 1: as a as a general framework for negotiation.
• 29:58
  Speaker 2: When they're ten points a.
• 29:59
  Speaker 1: Comple completely completely divorced of any reality and basically undermine
• 30:05
  Speaker 1: the very strategic aims of this war. I mean, if
• 30:09
  Speaker 1: Iran does not accept that it lost, If Iran does
• 30:13
  Speaker 1: not accept, does not surrender, and does not accept loss,
• 30:19
  Speaker 1: then it's all gonna happen again. Nothing will have changed,
• 30:23
  Speaker 1: nothing will have been gained. Ultimately from the war. They'll
• 30:26
  Speaker 1: be weaker, it'll take them longer, but they're not gonna stop.
• 30:31
  Speaker 1: They're not gonna stop because they think they wont even
• 30:38
  Speaker 1: if it's a delusion. Now again, they still hope that
• 30:41
  Speaker 1: the Uranian people will rebel. But this is very demoralized,
• 30:46
  Speaker 1: demoralizing to the Uranian people.
• 30:48
  Speaker 2: To cease fire.
• 30:49
  Speaker 1: Uranian people were eager to see the United States continue
• 30:55
  Speaker 1: its attacks on Iran until this regime fell, and this
• 30:59
  Speaker 1: is incredibly demoralizing. And by the way, the Iranians today
• 31:10
  Speaker 1: also announced that they will be expediting executions of Iranian protesters.
• 31:20
  Speaker 2: I mean, Iranian people must.
• 31:22
  Speaker 1: Feel so betrayed. Israel I think feels so betrayed. But
• 31:28
  Speaker 1: certainly the Iranian people do it is it is really horrific.
• 31:35
  Speaker 2: And I mean, this is.
• 31:36
  Speaker 1: What you get when you have a president, President Trump
• 31:40
  Speaker 1: running a a complex you know, a complex war that
• 31:47
  Speaker 1: requires real strategic thinking, not a one off and you're done,
• 31:52
  Speaker 1: like Venezuela, but a real, prolonged strategic war, and you've
• 31:56
  Speaker 1: got somebody like Trump running it. You know, in the end,
• 32:04
  Speaker 1: bad stuff will happen, bad stuff will happen again. Better
• 32:10
  Speaker 1: to have done it than not to have done it,
• 32:12
  Speaker 1: because at the end of the day, I think that
• 32:17
  Speaker 1: Ian has been its capacity to inflict pain on the
• 32:21
  Speaker 1: rest of the world, and in Israel in particular, but
• 32:23
  Speaker 1: in the rest of the world generally has been dramatically diminished.
• 32:27
  Speaker 2: That's good, yeah, But.
• 32:32
  Speaker 1: The price of that is giving them control of the
• 32:35
  Speaker 1: straits of Homos in the sense that they can control it.
• 32:39
  Speaker 1: And the price of that is not achieving not achieving victory.
• 32:44
  Speaker 1: This close, this close, couldn't do it, wouldn't do it,
• 32:48
  Speaker 1: refuse to do it.
• 32:50
  Speaker 2: All I can say is pathetic, pathetic.
• 32:58
  Speaker 1: Anyway it is uh, it is sad. I mean, the
• 33:05
  Speaker 1: reality is that finally the troops in place to do
• 33:09
  Speaker 1: something about the homeland straits, the Uae has said that
• 41:00
  Speaker 2: Youssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssss