Latest / CRYPTO 101 / Crypto Rundown: A.i VS Crypto Liquidity & JP Morgan Builds on Ethereum

Transcript

Crypto Rundown: A.i VS Crypto Liquidity & JP Morgan Builds on Ethereum · CRYPTO 101

0:00
[SPEAKER_02]: Welcome to the Crypto101 podcast, presented by Gemini.
0:04
[SPEAKER_02]: Your bridge to the future of money.
0:13
[SPEAKER_01]: All right, everyone, welcome back to the crypto run down where we talk about everything that's going on in the great world of cryptocurrency from the fundamental in the news to the technicals on the charts.
0:25
[SPEAKER_01]: We spend the time doing hours of research so that you all don't have to and we package it and we bring it to you.
0:32
[SPEAKER_01]: all in under an hour, and man, it's going to be an electric episode.
0:36
[SPEAKER_01]: We're getting back into these, I mean, it's been a busy wrap and kind of end to this year, but we want to make sure that we do these before we go in the holiday season and take a little bit of a break.
0:45
[SPEAKER_01]: And I mean, today's episode is going to be one of the most packed ones that we've had in a while.
0:50
[SPEAKER_01]: We have all sorts of breaking news, we have unemployment data,
0:54
[SPEAKER_01]: We have JP Morgan back in here, some really significant headlines, and so just a lot of other things to talk about.
1:01
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, I'm not even going to spoil it before we get into it, but cryptosing a lot of institutional and large kind of scale whale like attention.
1:10
[SPEAKER_01]: and it's important for everyone to understand these things because in a volatile time like this one, there's a lot going on and it feels like people don't know which way to look.
1:19
[SPEAKER_01]: They see price action falling further, they see the fundamentals and adoption growing, they're seeing crypto kind of move in the right direction from a fundamental standpoint.
1:28
[SPEAKER_01]: But then they look at the charts and they're saying, I'm still a little bit scared and nervous about why there's a disconnect.
1:33
[SPEAKER_01]: And so we're going to be breaking all of that down in today's episode.
1:36
[SPEAKER_01]: And of course,
1:37
[SPEAKER_01]: I can't do this without the one and only super producer, T-Vell.
1:42
[SPEAKER_02]: Yes, I'm sorry Mr. Brennan, excited to be here, thinking about changing the name of the show from crypto 101 to fundamentals 101 because it is another episode where the fundamentals certainly are strong, the news is strong and we're still kind of getting questions around the price action.
1:58
[SPEAKER_02]: Um, which again, as we've kind of hammered home the last couple episodes isn't the funnest when the price action doesn't go the way you want it, but, um, that's kind of what makes an investor and what makes a trader is when, you know, things necessarily aren't going your way.
2:11
[SPEAKER_02]: You've got to investigate figure out why and and challenge your thesis and I think this show has done a great job of the last month plus of kind of giving the tools and the knowledge to, to help, you know, help you make those decisions and,
2:25
[SPEAKER_02]: It's certainly I know we've talked we talk about the team Brian me you and's like it's we love doing these because it's fun And we like doing the show with each other, but it actually really helps us develop our own thesis and challenge the way we think and and help us with our investing so excited to be here with you
2:40
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I mean, sometimes you just need to talk through things out loud and it helps you think through it in a different way and just talk through it with someone else.
2:48
[SPEAKER_01]: You get a different perspective.
2:49
[SPEAKER_01]: You hear someone say something in a different way than then you would have maybe said it or thought about it and
2:55
[SPEAKER_01]: It just gives you different perspectives, so I know it helps myself, I know it helps you, and hopefully told listeners out there helps you as well, and again, we love doing these things, so I mean, let's just kick this off normally.
3:06
[SPEAKER_01]: We start with the charts of the most important headline, but today I want to kick things off by just looking at some breaking news that we have, because you're tuning in here, you get it right away.
3:17
[SPEAKER_01]: So two forms of breaking news today to you, though, it's not every day we get to, but
3:20
[SPEAKER_01]: Let's talk about unemployment because those numbers just came out, you know, it's financial data that comes out from time to time here, and I think it's important to look at that.
3:29
[SPEAKER_01]: And so the number was expected to be for point, or excuse me, it was 4.4%, it was expected to be 4.5%, and it came in worse than expected at 4.6%.
3:41
[SPEAKER_01]: So what this means is that the unemployment numbers came in worse than expected, and this is the highest that we have seen it since September of 2021 pretty much making four year highs for the unemployment numbers.
3:54
[SPEAKER_01]: So this is a double-edged sword.
3:58
[SPEAKER_01]: And the reason why we even bring this up, you're going to say, Brendan, this is a crypto show.
4:02
[SPEAKER_01]: Why in the world are we talking about this kind of financial data?
4:05
[SPEAKER_01]: Well, that's because it affects all of the risk-on assets, and crypto, whether you like it or not, is still largely considered a risk-on asset.
4:15
[SPEAKER_01]: So if people are trying to become more risk-on or more risk-off, that's going to impact crypto prices in one way or another.
4:21
[SPEAKER_01]: So,
4:23
[SPEAKER_01]: At a very basic level, worse unemployment makes people not want to spend their money on more risky assets, which could hurt the price of Bitcoin.
4:32
[SPEAKER_01]: However, we are back in the cycle, T-Vo.
4:37
[SPEAKER_01]: We are back in the cycle of good news as bad news, bad news as good news, all because of interest rates, which also affect the risk on and risk off markets.
4:49
[SPEAKER_01]: So the fact that we have this worse than expected employment data means that there's a higher chance that we get a rate cut.
4:57
[SPEAKER_01]: I saw it go over 30 something percent after this news came out.
5:01
[SPEAKER_01]: So now that there's a higher percentage chance for a rate cut out out ways the bad on employment data and is actually now a good thing.
5:10
[SPEAKER_01]: and you're saying what in the world my brain just went into a blender I don't blame you it's doesn't always make the most logical sense but again the way that this works is because Bitcoin is considered on the higher end of the risk on spectrum you have
5:26
[SPEAKER_01]: the rate cuts essentially being of more importance in significance than what the unemployment data is at least for the time being right now because it's not anything too too crazy.
5:36
[SPEAKER_01]: And so people are saying, okay, well, the fact that we got bad news is actually good news because it raises the chance for more rate cuts next year, which the crypto market has historically responded pretty positively too.
5:48
[SPEAKER_01]: So,
5:49
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I mean, table, what do we say?
5:51
[SPEAKER_01]: Good news as bad news.
5:52
[SPEAKER_01]: Bad news is good news.
5:54
[SPEAKER_02]: It's a change of wins.
5:56
[SPEAKER_02]: I think in the macro risk markets, I think October 10th, as we've talked about on this show, that the biggest liquidation crypto history,
6:05
[SPEAKER_02]: Um, is still kind of playing outright flushing out.
6:08
[SPEAKER_02]: We haven't really we never saw that dead bot.
6:10
[SPEAKER_02]: Remember the bot the quote unquote dead body that would rise to the surface.
6:14
[SPEAKER_02]: We haven't seen that which I find is really interesting and you know, I guess it hasn't come out whereas like Tom Lee and Scaramucci said they know who it is, but they won't say it.
6:25
[SPEAKER_02]: Um, I don't know.
6:26
[SPEAKER_02]: I was really interested in trying to figure out more around that because I think that was such a, again, the biggest liquidation crypto history, but like we don't have a lot of
6:34
[SPEAKER_02]: information since then so I don't know that that kind of has been lingering and I think you have to look at overall with like this job's data plus the AI trade right so a lot of the AI trade especially the last six months to a year has been high risk on right the evaluate the valuation these companies are getting higher people are never
6:52
[SPEAKER_02]: up.
6:52
[SPEAKER_02]: So it's like, if you're a trader that wants high data, high risk, you know, that that AI trade slash crypto traded is kind of the same person.
7:00
[SPEAKER_02]: So I think some of that money kind of might have gone to two sides of the coin, if that makes sense, where, you know, back when FTX happened and at the bottom and, you know, planning to buy the dip on that and then ride this thing for
7:19
[SPEAKER_02]: I don't think at that time, I wasn't saying I didn't see anybody really pounding the fist for this crazy AI trade that developed over the last three years too.
7:27
[SPEAKER_02]: So I think that's something that I've really learned over this last year to digest is like, hey, the the risk on money has gone different ways.
7:36
[SPEAKER_02]: And so now that we're kind of digesting this job data, we're digesting the new Fed and then all the sudden again, this is what makes a market.
7:42
[SPEAKER_02]: But all of a sudden, these AI companies are getting questioned.
7:45
[SPEAKER_02]: And it's used to be six to eight months ago.
7:47
[SPEAKER_02]: It was, if you're spending more on CapEx, your stock's gonna go up because you're investing in the future.
7:53
[SPEAKER_02]: Now it's like, whoa, you're spending too much money.
7:55
[SPEAKER_02]: And because Google and Apple were left for dead.
7:59
[SPEAKER_02]: They're not spending any money apples that Google is going to get beat by open AI now it's reversed Apple and Google are leading the mag seven and so that money that risk money sloshing around and so I think That's taking away from some crypto where it's just kind of a pause plus October 10th you can't forget about that being a historic event and Really not getting the answers that I think the community would like
8:21
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, and you know, we're going to talk more about this because I think that there's three threats that are looming out there right now and we'll get into these and just a little bit.
8:30
[SPEAKER_01]: But before we do that, I mean, let's cover some more news.
8:32
[SPEAKER_01]: I want to make sure we get a like a lot of these big headlines out of the way we talk about some of the good stuff before we go into any of the bad things, but this one shocked me.
8:41
[SPEAKER_01]: I actually had the fact check this last night and make sure that this was real and it is.
8:48
[SPEAKER_01]: Just in, Nasdaq is moving forward with a 24-7 stock trading model that is expected to have 24-hour trading on wheat days by Q2.
9:01
[SPEAKER_01]: So I'm confused by this T-Vo.
9:04
[SPEAKER_01]: And again, this literally just released.
9:08
[SPEAKER_01]: There's not a ton of information about this.
9:11
[SPEAKER_01]: My initial thought is if they're going to make it 24-7, is it going to be using blockchain technology?
9:17
[SPEAKER_01]: Are things going to be tokenized?
9:19
[SPEAKER_01]: Or is this going to be them updating their internal systems to do this on their own?
9:24
[SPEAKER_01]: There's not really a clear answer yet.
9:26
[SPEAKER_01]: They are filing to do this because I believe they need approval.
9:30
[SPEAKER_01]: But there's not a ton of information.
9:32
[SPEAKER_01]: Now in this post and maybe we can find another post Tvo.
9:35
[SPEAKER_01]: This is the one that I gave so it's kind of on me.
9:38
[SPEAKER_01]: But the reason I was confused about this is because it says that they want to move forward with a 24-7, which means 24 hours a day, seven days a week.
9:46
[SPEAKER_01]: And then it says, expected to have 24 hour trading days only on weekdays.
9:53
[SPEAKER_01]: So then you see what I mean, the polymarket post was a little bit kind of like
10:00
[SPEAKER_01]: It didn't make as much sense because it was saying 24, seven and then it only said 24, five.
10:05
[SPEAKER_01]: Right.
10:06
[SPEAKER_01]: It said only on weekdays.
10:07
[SPEAKER_01]: So I'm confused.
10:08
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, what are they going to be doing here?
10:11
[SPEAKER_01]: Is it going to be 24, seven?
10:12
[SPEAKER_01]: Is it going to be 24, five?
10:14
[SPEAKER_01]: And again, this stuff just launched and it looks more like a- I already, yeah, maybe this one, again, we're just pulling from X here.
10:21
[SPEAKER_02]: So this news just dropped the 23, five during the week.
10:26
[SPEAKER_02]: uh, starting next year and then by the end by the end of next year by the end of twenty six twenty four seven so kind of a roll out.
10:34
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, and then the post below that says they're going to move forward with and then they have there it is again twenty four seven.
10:41
[SPEAKER_01]: by the end.
10:42
[SPEAKER_01]: So I mean, we'll have to come back and circle around on this.
10:46
[SPEAKER_01]: Maybe I think you're right in that the 23, five or the 24, five is what comes out first.
10:51
[SPEAKER_01]: They test it, right?
10:53
[SPEAKER_01]: They have kind of the test flight.
10:54
[SPEAKER_01]: And then they come out with 24, seven?
10:56
[SPEAKER_02]: Welcome.
10:56
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, welcome to the show.
10:58
[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, these traditional,
11:01
[SPEAKER_02]: Kicking and punching air right now because yeah, like that's that's I mean It's kind of already a global market but with the I don't know I think this is gonna this is gonna stir some feathers People raging online about they're not gonna have a life like you're not like imagine managing like a big fund Like it's gonna be very very very very hard, but hey, we're in the trenches.
11:23
[SPEAKER_01]: We live this life
11:25
[SPEAKER_01]: Here's the thing.
11:26
[SPEAKER_01]: And again, the reason why we say this is because what you now have are all of these crypto related plays and these spy ETFs that have been trading on the stock market, right?
11:36
[SPEAKER_01]: The equities market.
11:38
[SPEAKER_01]: So now those are all the sudden going to be 24 seven and that was the one of the appeals of crypto is like, hey, these can be 24 seven and they're battle tested.
11:47
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean Bitcoin being around now.
11:49
[SPEAKER_01]: for as long as it have, you know, we have something that has more of a decade experience of never going offline, never faulting, never having issues, and that's kind of the appeal, and you get 24-7 exposure, and you can access it whenever you want, and there's no control over it.
12:03
[SPEAKER_01]: And it looks as if crypto is putting pressure.
12:06
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, we've seen the crypto market grow to three trillion dollars in market cap.
12:10
[SPEAKER_01]: it looks like it is putting pressure on equities to do something similar and they're looking at the crypto market they're seeing it take some market share and they're saying hey you know we probably need to integrate features like this as well we've seen the crypto market do it for well over a decade and it's worked out great and they've grown we can probably integrate something like this as well again
12:30
[SPEAKER_01]: The big kind of question that it comes back to is is this going to be an integrated form of block chain to make sure that it stays up 24 seven or is this going to be their own servers and stuff because I would be somewhat skeptical of
12:49
[SPEAKER_01]: how a more centralized product would run 24.7.
12:53
[SPEAKER_01]: I think eventually you're going to have some downside issues.
12:58
[SPEAKER_01]: You're going to have some server issues.
13:01
[SPEAKER_01]: And you know what I mean?
13:02
[SPEAKER_01]: Because that's an issue that we see with a lot of centralized tech.
13:05
[SPEAKER_01]: It's like eventually something happens, a power outage, something.
13:10
[SPEAKER_01]: Granted, there are holidays and breaks and stuff, so maybe that's when maintenance can be done.
13:15
[SPEAKER_01]: But that's kind of the beauty of the decentralized model is that you can do work, or you can take one note offline or take note offline, because the other ones are going to pick up the weight.
13:25
[SPEAKER_01]: But in a centralized model, that's not the case.
13:27
[SPEAKER_01]: So the question is, how long can they run for before something needs to be upgraded or changed?
13:32
[SPEAKER_01]: And then moving forward, if we do this, are there going to have to be just down days for the stock market where it's like, hey, everyone, we need to work on the infrastructure and update things, no trading today.
13:41
[SPEAKER_01]: Like, that's a possibility.
13:42
[SPEAKER_01]: And I'm sure there's going to be a million work around for this in the future.
13:47
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I mean, interesting stuff, man.
13:49
[SPEAKER_01]: I have so many questions that I want to answer it.
13:51
[SPEAKER_01]: And I'm sure it's coming.
13:52
[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, it's inevitable as much as the definitely track, if I's not going to like it.
13:56
[SPEAKER_02]: It's like, you know, between crypto over the last decade plus.
14:00
[SPEAKER_02]: And then obviously, Robinhood rolled out 24, 7 trading for a lot of stocks, like the big ones like Nvidia, Google, a lot of things and hood their own stock.
14:10
[SPEAKER_02]: yeah, yeah.
14:11
[SPEAKER_02]: So yeah, it's coming.
14:13
[SPEAKER_02]: I think I think it's a double edged sword.
14:15
[SPEAKER_02]: I think it gives obviously gives a lot of opportunity.
14:19
[SPEAKER_02]: Like when we've just seen just volatility's been just insane recently.
14:23
[SPEAKER_02]: It's like I feel like it could be for your average retail trader if they don't have, you know, good tendencies, education and trading strategies.
14:31
[SPEAKER_02]: Like you're going to be getting shaken out at nine o'clock at night, you know, on a Sunday because you're scared type of
14:36
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, sometimes the ability to not it's sell when the volatility's high might help like your average trader.
14:43
[SPEAKER_02]: You know, they're trying to go out to dinner.
14:44
[SPEAKER_02]: It's Wednesday at seven and you know, there's the stocks fall off a cliff.
14:48
[SPEAKER_02]: They don't know what to do.
14:50
[SPEAKER_01]: So it's it's Friday at midnight.
14:52
[SPEAKER_01]: You've had one too many drinks and you're making horrible decisions.
14:56
[SPEAKER_01]: We don't do that.
14:57
[SPEAKER_01]: We don't do that.
14:57
[SPEAKER_01]: We don't do that here.
14:58
[SPEAKER_01]: No one would ever do that.
14:59
[SPEAKER_02]: No one would ever.
15:00
[SPEAKER_02]: It's great.
15:02
[SPEAKER_02]: All right, let's move on to the charts.
15:03
[SPEAKER_02]: I think I know this week is as we come to the end of the year, we're doing our last trading session with you on Thursday.
15:11
[SPEAKER_02]: So if people are interested, obviously the volatility has been high.
15:14
[SPEAKER_02]: It's a great time to learn technical analysis.
15:16
[SPEAKER_02]: You come to this show, to watch Brennan do it usually every week.
15:21
[SPEAKER_02]: I'm so he's going to do a session now.
15:23
[SPEAKER_02]: If you're interested, he has a one hour live trading session this Thursday.
15:26
[SPEAKER_02]: I put the link in YouTube, I'll put the link in the podcast as well.
15:29
[SPEAKER_02]: So go and check that link.
15:31
[SPEAKER_02]: If you're somebody that's interested in kind of learning more, he's going to do a one hour live trading session.
15:36
[SPEAKER_02]: This Thursday goes sign up for it in the link below.
15:39
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, completely for free.
15:40
[SPEAKER_01]: We'd love to see everyone there.
15:41
[SPEAKER_01]: We're going to talk about Bitcoin and some other cryptos as well.
15:44
[SPEAKER_01]: And we're going to go a bit deeper than we do right here.
15:47
[SPEAKER_01]: But this is what we see on Bitcoin right now.
15:49
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, Bitcoin.
15:51
[SPEAKER_01]: Continuing the downtrend from what we saw around October 6th, which is when we hit the all-time high, and then 10th, which was that large liquidation event.
16:00
[SPEAKER_01]: So as we've said for a while, kind of just lower lows, lower highs on a pretty routine basis.
16:05
[SPEAKER_01]: And most recently here, we're seeing what was really good structure last week, it's start to break here, T-Vell.
16:13
[SPEAKER_01]: Bitcoin breaking some of this bullish structure that we've had, especially short-term structure.
16:18
[SPEAKER_01]: And so for the bulk of this move, I mean, ever since the initial breakdown, the equipment had never really held above that 20 day moving average.
16:26
[SPEAKER_01]: You had kind of the one fake out here where it spent two days above, and this was immediately just followed up by a ton of selling pressure.
16:32
[SPEAKER_01]: This time around, it was a little bit different.
16:34
[SPEAKER_01]: You saw a consistent higher lows.
16:35
[SPEAKER_01]: You saw a relatively flat level of support, which turned into a climbing level support as after this most recent move.
16:43
[SPEAKER_01]: But you saw rising support, you know, we are trading and closing and using this 20-day moving average as support.
16:49
[SPEAKER_01]: Pressure looked like it was squeezing back to the upside.
16:51
[SPEAKER_01]: The 20s started to have a little bit curl back upwards.
16:54
[SPEAKER_01]: And then after the news came out last week, the FOMC and the Federal Reserve rate cutting news, after that, you know, price just started to tank.
17:04
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, it happened on Wednesday, Thursday, we got the news and then Thursday was like digestion day.
17:10
[SPEAKER_01]: And then, you know, moving from Friday, Saturday, Sunday, Monday, it was just all down, all red days from there on out.
17:16
[SPEAKER_01]: And what we started to do is we broke the 20 day moving average.
17:20
[SPEAKER_01]: We broke our higher lows and we broke our support line.
17:24
[SPEAKER_01]: And so what we have here is a pretty clear rejection off the highs and then now kind of rejections of the short-term moving averages, which we were using as a support area.
17:33
[SPEAKER_01]: So when we kind of look at this, it's looking a little bit more like an inverse break cooking gal, kind of the break to the downside, testing those former levels and rejecting them, which isn't usually a great thing to see here for a bit coin.
17:46
[SPEAKER_01]: So I think a little bit of pessimism is coming back in as we're looking at this.
17:52
[SPEAKER_01]: And again, it's just not a great thing to see any kind of the first real sense of like short-term bullish structure that we get, and then you just get it all kind of broken over the weekend.
18:01
[SPEAKER_01]: And again, not a great thing to see here for Bitcoin.
18:04
[SPEAKER_01]: The emphasis I want to play is on this is that this is short-term structure, right?
18:07
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm not saying mid-term, I'm not saying long-term, long-term structure.
18:11
[SPEAKER_01]: I think you can argue, it's still very much intact.
18:14
[SPEAKER_01]: You look at this and you're not like, oh my gosh, we're in some horrible downtrend.
18:17
[SPEAKER_01]: It's like, no, it was a past couple of years, very, very clear uptrend.
18:21
[SPEAKER_01]: It's the short-term structure of what we've seen really over the last two or so months, barely two months.
18:27
[SPEAKER_01]: And that's a really minute for Bitcoin.
18:28
[SPEAKER_01]: Now for all coins, I think you have some midterm very clear downtrend from the midterm timeframe, because for all coins, it's about six months of bear market.
18:37
[SPEAKER_01]: So for a few even want to call it that.
18:40
[SPEAKER_01]: But for Bitcoin, it's only been about two months.
18:42
[SPEAKER_01]: But when we're looking at this, I just want to kind of temper expectations.
18:45
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, we're still below all three of the major moving averages.
18:48
[SPEAKER_01]: We're breaking support.
18:49
[SPEAKER_01]: We're kind of rejecting some of those prior support areas.
18:51
[SPEAKER_01]: Just generally not a big, not a great thing to see.
18:54
[SPEAKER_01]: I think the number one thing I want to watch out for here is can we form a higher swing low off this relative strength index.
19:01
[SPEAKER_01]: And if we do like that, it'll be a huge opportunity in my opinion, but it's something that hasn't happened yet, and I'm going to still kind of keep an eye out on.
19:09
[SPEAKER_01]: Besides this, you know, you have ETH, which was actually outperforming Bitcoin on this move to the upside.
19:16
[SPEAKER_01]: Even this is starting to come back in.
19:18
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, Bitcoin's green one percent, ETH's red one percent today.
19:21
[SPEAKER_01]: In the whole crypto market, it's kind of just all over the place.
19:24
[SPEAKER_01]: You have some green and some red just depends on the project, but it's pretty mixed emotions.
19:29
[SPEAKER_01]: But again, as things are kind of consolidating, you're getting kind of rejections, and on a lot of altcoins, you continue to get lower lows.
19:39
[SPEAKER_01]: Allcoins are remaining more risky.
19:41
[SPEAKER_01]: They kind of continue to underperform.
19:43
[SPEAKER_01]: And it makes me want to be a little bit more risk off and just kind of sit on my hands for a bit, get a little bit more data, get some more information.
19:49
[SPEAKER_01]: And as more of that comes out, I'll probably be become more risk on.
19:55
[SPEAKER_01]: But...
19:56
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm still waiting for it.
19:57
[SPEAKER_01]: So I'm at listen.
19:58
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm going to do a little bit of DCAing.
19:59
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm going to add some things that I have really long term conviction on things that are probably a little bit lower in risk, not super risky.
20:06
[SPEAKER_01]: And I'm okay doing some dollar cost averaging there, but I'm not trying to do anything too too crazy until again we get a little bit of a clear picture.
20:15
[SPEAKER_01]: And that's just a way that I look at the markets right now.
20:18
[SPEAKER_01]: So that's what we're seeing on the charts.
20:21
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, just again, it's a digesting time kind of basically what we said, kind of when we're talking about the jobs data coming out and just the macro market overall seems to be kind of deciding Do we want, do we want risk on, do we want risk off what it's an interesting time and I think Whereas the Fed decision comes into play in 26
20:45
[SPEAKER_02]: we know the president wants a dove in the fed chair and for rates to be lower so again it's a don't fight the fed tape but how do we get there and there's still a couple decisions with that with excuse me with pal but then even when um i saw this stat even when the fed chair gets announced
21:03
[SPEAKER_02]: Um, I believe it takes on average like 70 to 90 days to get processed until so in in reality and this is I've been talking about the fed thing is like kind of one of my top story lines of 26 which I'm sure will be for a lot of people, but I was kind of in the just the thought of I guess I didn't understand.
21:23
[SPEAKER_02]: I got educated on a little more of the the process of getting, um, you know, put into the seat.
21:28
[SPEAKER_02]: It's going to take much longer than I thought I thought they would be there in the spring base.
21:31
[SPEAKER_02]: Okay, Fed share pal's done and then you just pop somebody else in there at this rate.
21:36
[SPEAKER_02]: It looks like it's going to be like a summer end of summer, but I mean definitely the second half of 26 so that that story line of getting that Fed sharing there and seeing how that new Fed reacts is a
21:47
[SPEAKER_02]: back end of 26 and then we have the midterms election back end of 26.
21:52
[SPEAKER_02]: So the storylines are lining up to be quite dramatic and and I think the volatility probably continues with crypto along with the I trade so it will be an exciting 26 but there's going to be a lot to parse through.
22:06
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah that there is man and I mean there's a lot of questions as well like we you're right there's midterms coming up and so
22:14
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm obviously like either the stock market and I would argue now the crypto market plays a little bit of a role in that and that you had like in the last election believe it or not I mean it was a serious voting point people had a lot of crypto they felt like they weren't treated right.
22:30
[SPEAKER_01]: And that kind of shifted their views about how crypto would be looked at.
22:34
[SPEAKER_01]: So if crypto prices are down a lot going into the midterm elections again, we never take a side left or right over here.
22:41
[SPEAKER_01]: But I think it's okay to recognize that if crypto is down a lot after people thought that they were voting for better stop and listen, it's not the job of the government to prop up the crypto market.
22:51
[SPEAKER_01]: as well.
22:52
[SPEAKER_01]: So I think there's that to understand.
22:54
[SPEAKER_01]: But, you know, that's just the way that human emotion works.
22:57
[SPEAKER_01]: Right?
22:57
[SPEAKER_01]: If the stock market was in the absolute gutter, guess what?
23:01
[SPEAKER_01]: More people are probably going to vote for the opposing party.
23:03
[SPEAKER_01]: That's just the way it works.
23:04
[SPEAKER_01]: I think you could probably say the same thing for crypto.
23:07
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, crypto a lot of altcoins have been in the gutter.
23:09
[SPEAKER_01]: for a bit now, and people are hurt by it, right?
23:13
[SPEAKER_01]: The average altcoin holder is not in a super happy place for the moment, but maybe that's a factor that comes in here.
23:21
[SPEAKER_01]: So is there some sort of bump?
23:23
[SPEAKER_01]: Are they going to try to do something?
23:24
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, we'll see, but you're right, in this sense, that midterms are going to offer a lot of pressure from the fed side and you have that, but then from the election side as well.
23:32
[SPEAKER_01]: I think people are going to look at equities and crypto as in terms of their performance.
23:37
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, let's see, let's see what happens.
23:39
[SPEAKER_01]: I think it's something to kind of keep in the back of your mind.
23:42
[SPEAKER_01]: Because there always is speculation and it's not something that you can prove, but it's speculation that
23:48
[SPEAKER_01]: politicians try to prop up industries going into any election season and it makes sense.
23:55
[SPEAKER_01]: But fingers crossed here, I guess, you know, for someone who is a crypto holder, again, no political side.
24:00
[SPEAKER_01]: For someone who's a crypto holder, I want the, I want the values to go up.
24:04
[SPEAKER_01]: So, hopefully we see some sort of a bump kind of going into that in the very least, it gives us some long opportunities or some take-profit opportunities or something.
24:14
[SPEAKER_01]: you know what else we have to you know we have the three big threats and we you reference this earlier and I want to come back to it because there is a little bit of fear just you know about the current state of Bitcoin I've spent some time I just you know we've talked to Matt Hogan and we've talked to some some different asset managers and some big people in the space you know even sharply we just talked to them about this and you know stay tuned for that
24:41
[SPEAKER_01]: I think there's three primary things that you need to look at on Bitcoin right now in terms of the threat.
24:46
[SPEAKER_01]: Number one is Bitcoin's underperformance, right?
24:48
[SPEAKER_01]: People have looked at gold, they have looked at silver, they have looked at stock market, things like NASDAQ and the S&P, and they have said, you know, why is Bitcoin?
24:56
[SPEAKER_01]: Why has crypto been underperforming so much compared to these other verticals?
25:00
[SPEAKER_01]: Um, you know, they all kind of continue to go to new highs, float around the all-time highs, you know, Bitcoin and crypto were just not there and they haven't been there for months.
25:08
[SPEAKER_01]: So I think that's the first threat and the first pain point is kind of the underperformance that we've seen.
25:13
[SPEAKER_01]: number two.
25:14
[SPEAKER_01]: And some of these are going to tie into each other.
25:16
[SPEAKER_01]: So just let me get through all of them before, you know, we get angry and we type it me.
25:22
[SPEAKER_01]: But number two is the AI trade, right?
25:25
[SPEAKER_01]: There's been a lot of attention around this AI trade.
25:28
[SPEAKER_01]: And I think number one, that has stolen some market share.
25:31
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, people who are investing in crypto, I think that that has stolen some of the capital that probably wouldn't go on towards crypto.
25:37
[SPEAKER_01]: People are all about this AI
25:43
[SPEAKER_01]: And now that, I mean, if you look at Nasdaq, it's up 60% since April.
25:49
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, that's almost unheard of.
25:51
[SPEAKER_01]: Nasdaq being up 60% since April, and there's been no double digit pullbacks so far.
25:56
[SPEAKER_01]: And so it kind of begs the question, like, hey, eventually it's natural to get a 10 to 20% pullback, especially running 60% in six months or something like that.
26:06
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, averaging your annual return every single month for six months straight,
26:10
[SPEAKER_01]: Uh, it's crazy.
26:11
[SPEAKER_01]: So at some point, you know, there's going to be a pullback from the say I trade and probably more continuation to the upside after that.
26:17
[SPEAKER_01]: But at some point, there's going to be probably a 10 to 20% pullback and I've even heard Tom Lee and other people talk about this idea.
26:23
[SPEAKER_01]: And the question is, okay, well, what kind of ripple effects does that have on crypto, you know, if if there have been a lot of favorable.
26:32
[SPEAKER_01]: more factors for the crypto market right very positive administration very positive regulation you have rates being cut consistently you have tech booming you have metals booming you have everything kind of working in crypto's favor and it's you know lagging a little bit you know what happens if
26:53
[SPEAKER_01]: the macro conditions worse and a little bit more.
26:56
[SPEAKER_01]: And Nasdaq isn't doing so well.
26:58
[SPEAKER_01]: And equities are, you know, code that have some downside exposure.
27:00
[SPEAKER_01]: And I think so, you know, I think that's what people are afraid.
27:02
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, if Nasdaq pulls 10, 15, 20% what's gonna happen to the price of Bitcoin and crypto.
27:07
[SPEAKER_01]: And I think there's a little bit of fear around that in that whole AI thing softening.
27:14
[SPEAKER_01]: The third one is just that large liquidation event, and that was the big thing that has impacted crypto.
27:20
[SPEAKER_01]: So when people look, why has, and ask, why has crypto been underperforming, it's largely due to that liquidation event, even the largest single day liquidation that we've ever seen, about $20 billion in liquidations, it is a,
27:34
[SPEAKER_01]: critical event.
27:36
[SPEAKER_01]: And the ripple effects have continued to be felt throughout all of the crypto market.
27:42
[SPEAKER_01]: And so I think that is playing a role in point number one, which was Bitcoins under performance.
27:47
[SPEAKER_01]: And I think that that is something that we're hopefully beginning to get over.
27:51
[SPEAKER_01]: Maybe we have another move down, you know, I can't tell the future.
27:54
[SPEAKER_01]: But I think those are the three things that are on the front of everyone's mind.
27:57
[SPEAKER_01]: And so they're saying, okay, so there's been under performance.
28:00
[SPEAKER_01]: There has been this AI trade that we're nervous about and then there is the large liquidation event as well.
28:07
[SPEAKER_01]: And I think that has been the number one contributor in the number one factor to why crypto has been underperforming and why we've been seeing the price action.
28:18
[SPEAKER_01]: So we're going to continue to kind of cover those.
28:20
[SPEAKER_01]: But again, we like to talk about all of the sides.
28:22
[SPEAKER_01]: I think it's important to look at the bullish, the bearish, the good, the bad, everything in between.
28:26
[SPEAKER_01]: And that's the point of this show is, you know, listen, we talk about a lot of the good stuff.
28:31
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, because we believe that most of the stuff happening in this space is good.
28:34
[SPEAKER_01]: But we also don't want to just sugarcoat it and say everything's sunshine and rainbows.
28:38
[SPEAKER_01]: Like we like to talk about everything that's going on so that you all that are listening in can get the full picture.
28:45
[SPEAKER_01]: And so there are some things to kind of just be weary about.
28:48
[SPEAKER_01]: And again, in the long term, I want to clarify, we think cryptos are going to do great things.
28:52
[SPEAKER_01]: We think it's going to go to, we think Bitcoin can hit new all-time highs.
28:55
[SPEAKER_01]: We think it can go a lot higher.
28:57
[SPEAKER_01]: We're not worried about the long term.
28:58
[SPEAKER_01]: But in the immediate timeframe, we want to talk about everything and that includes some of the bad things to you vote.
29:03
[SPEAKER_02]: Well, and I love your opinion on kind of like what I said where the money got distributed elsewhere in risk assets right like I think I said this on the show I had a quote and I didn't think about it as deep as I have like kind of Monday morning quarterbacking it but I was like everybody's asking where all point season is I go it's happening look at the stock market
29:23
[SPEAKER_02]: Look at the circle when circle IPO, it was boom, you know, 6,700% in a jam and I go boom, 100% and then all these quantum computing stocks went up 500% down 70% back up 600% and that's all happened in this year.
29:37
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah.
29:38
[SPEAKER_02]: That's that stuff that we saw in the altcoin market years ago and I was kind of saying it like tongue and cheek like, oh, where's the altcoin season?
29:44
[SPEAKER_02]: We thought it would maybe transition into crypto a little bit more especially the altcoins a little bit more this year.
29:51
[SPEAKER_02]: and it hasn't, but there was a lot of risk taking eye-flying leverage liquidity in the crypto market and in the traditional market as well with quantum stocks, AI stocks.
30:03
[SPEAKER_02]: And I feel like just kind of that liquidity and capital maybe got dispersed among different asset classes more than what anybody thought really.
30:14
[SPEAKER_01]: And I think you're right, and kind of feeding into the whole cycle.
30:17
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, people are looking at it now and saying, you know, will the four-year cycle hold?
30:21
[SPEAKER_01]: And is this going to be a thorn in our side over the next year?
30:24
[SPEAKER_01]: And it's interesting.
30:26
[SPEAKER_01]: And we've talked about this a couple of times, but almost everyone that we've had on the podcast is no longer believing in the four-year cycle.
30:34
[SPEAKER_01]: It doesn't matter who it is, if you're from a banker and asset manager, you're someone who's building in the space, you're from a treasury, you know, whatever.
30:42
[SPEAKER_01]: I would say 90 plus percent of the people are disagreeing with the idea of a four-year cycle, and it kind of continuing in the same way that we've seen it before.
30:50
[SPEAKER_01]: And this is another headline where, you know, bit-wise CEO Matt Hogan says Bitcoin will break the four-year cycle and set new all-time highs next year.
30:58
[SPEAKER_01]: Now, we bring this up because we did a podcast with Matt Hogan.
31:02
[SPEAKER_01]: When did that come out?
31:03
[SPEAKER_01]: Want a couple of weeks ago, to you guys?
31:04
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, like two weeks ago.
31:06
[SPEAKER_01]: two weeks ago he talked about this two weeks ago on the podcast so if you're not tuning into these podcasts we urge you to we I mean this article came out this morning at what is it 5 a.m. they came out five hours ago we put out the same information two weeks ago because we have access and we get to talk to all the leaders in the space and we love doing it and we bring it to you all
31:29
[SPEAKER_01]: before it's mainstream, before it's in the news, before it's publicly available to everyone else, we are talking to these people and publishing this stuff.
31:37
[SPEAKER_01]: So shout out to the podcast, shout out to Tevo for booking these things and getting these people and setting it all up and orchestrating it.
31:44
[SPEAKER_01]: But you get all the information here, first.
31:47
[SPEAKER_01]: You get it here, first, everyone.
31:49
[SPEAKER_01]: So, had the pattern ourselves on the back a little bit, Tevo, because I think we deserved it, kind of getting this info a couple of weeks in advance.
31:57
[SPEAKER_01]: Listen, I agree.
31:58
[SPEAKER_01]: I would agree with Matt Hogan here and with a lot of the other podcasts.
32:02
[SPEAKER_01]: I think that we are seeing the structure of the four-year cycle break and we've been seeing it for years.
32:09
[SPEAKER_01]: In fact, you know, let me share a one quick chart and then we will move on.
32:13
[SPEAKER_01]: But I just want everyone to kind of visualize what this looks like because you've seen the structure of the four-year cycle.
32:20
[SPEAKER_01]: Uh, slowly start to shift in break in recent years.
32:24
[SPEAKER_01]: So if we look at this real fast, I mean, we look at Bitcoin dominance, for example, here's what those cycles look like.
32:31
[SPEAKER_01]: You can see the 2017 cycle, where Bitcoin dominance runs up and then all coins using begins very quick, the entire cycle very quick.
32:39
[SPEAKER_01]: Next cycle, a bit longer and then it goes up.
32:42
[SPEAKER_01]: now what we're seeing right now, much more elongated, so you're seeing not only the volatility, but also the time that it takes to do these cycles.
32:52
[SPEAKER_01]: You're seeing them very, and not even very, you're seeing them extend and elongate and become less volatile over longer periods of time, and you're seeing them just kind of dissipate and go away.
33:02
[SPEAKER_01]: And so when you're looking at it, I think this is important to understand and looking at this chart.
33:06
[SPEAKER_01]: of how altquencies and and how the four-year cycle is changed, and it looks as if we're starting to break that cycle and move away from it, at least in the sense that we're used to it from some of the 2021, 2017 cycles.
33:20
[SPEAKER_01]: It kind of looks like we are shifting away from that, and I don't think that that's an necessarily a bad thing because they were volatile, and they were quick.
33:28
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, it was it was a crazy time for sure, but as the industry grows, I think that that's just
33:36
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, I think I think it's a great point.
33:38
[SPEAKER_02]: It's a great point.
33:39
[SPEAKER_02]: And that's what people've set up, especially for the bigger assets is maybe volatility dampers down a little bit, but maybe not also like, you know, bitcoins down what 30% and then the industry's dead.
33:49
[SPEAKER_02]: Actually, well, we'll pinpoint that for the end.
33:52
[SPEAKER_02]: Because that's how we're going to wrap up the show is talking about it how all the times the sky's been falling and crypto's been dead and big wins That will save that for the end of the show a fun little light hearted tidbit there But let's get back into the fundamentals as you said the the bit wise news got plucked from our podcast credits us You're in the right place for listening to all the news that you need to educate yourself
34:13
[SPEAKER_02]: But what's going on, Brendan?
34:14
[SPEAKER_02]: Is there anything bullish?
34:15
[SPEAKER_02]: Is there any good news going on?
34:17
[SPEAKER_02]: Of course, that's like literally all this shows about.
34:19
[SPEAKER_02]: Again, I said at the top of the program, we're going to change it to fundamentals 101.
34:23
[SPEAKER_02]: How about J.P. Morgan?
34:25
[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, I came up with the term McNut loves this one.
34:28
[SPEAKER_02]: Jamie Crypto, Dynon.
34:31
[SPEAKER_02]: J.P. Morgan's launching a tokenized money market fund on Ethereum.
34:35
[SPEAKER_02]: And so this is kind of the theory is,
34:37
[SPEAKER_02]: You know, long-term technological advancement is, is it going to be the fundamentals or going to be built before the price action follows?
34:44
[SPEAKER_02]: That's the thesis.
34:45
[SPEAKER_02]: Again, that's the thesis from, I think anybody who's studying, you know, one-on-one of investments, am I investing in this today or am I investing in this because it's going to grow in years?
34:54
[SPEAKER_02]: And that's what, you know, the average investor should be looking at for any company.
34:58
[SPEAKER_02]: That's the stuff that Tom Lee and Kathy Wood go on TV and talk about all the time.
35:07
[SPEAKER_02]: The fun name is going to be called money, M-O-N-Y, and just a normal money market fund, but the fact that it is going to be built on Ethereum, I think it's really interesting, again, JP Morgan seems to be siding with Ethereum from all the news that we've seen.
35:25
[SPEAKER_02]: They also will touch on Bitcoin next, but it's going to open up to, obviously, some larger
35:36
[SPEAKER_02]: there's going to be a million dollar minimum.
35:40
[SPEAKER_02]: But again, again, just very interesting that they're building this.
35:44
[SPEAKER_02]: I think I don't think this means that all their money market funds overnight are going to turn into this, but I think it's a test.
35:49
[SPEAKER_02]: Okay, how is this going to work?
35:51
[SPEAKER_02]: Is it going to be clean?
35:52
[SPEAKER_02]: Is it going to bring more yield?
35:53
[SPEAKER_02]: What options are you going to be able to do when you're in this money market fund?
35:56
[SPEAKER_02]: How can you lend out, you know, and maybe there's some staking options and getting more yield and there's more options of what you can do with your money in it?
36:03
[SPEAKER_02]: I think it's going to
36:04
[SPEAKER_02]: It's going to be interesting to see in the success of it will be whether it grows or not, but it's something to keep an eye on.
36:10
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, it is and like it's a lot of money.
36:13
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, it's not a million, it's not 10 million.
36:16
[SPEAKER_01]: It's a hundred million dollar fun.
36:18
[SPEAKER_01]: It's crazy.
36:19
[SPEAKER_01]: And they're not the first people to do this kind of thing.
36:22
[SPEAKER_01]: And we've seen different forms of like tokenized funds and blockchain funds and we've seen different ones from a lot of these big players, you know, most notably BlackRock and I believe Vanneck has one, although there's might be on Salana, but there's a bunch of groups that have these.
36:40
[SPEAKER_01]: We see the value here, we're going to expand into this, and it's just part of a larger trend.
36:46
[SPEAKER_01]: It's hard to believe that if JP Morgan, right, the world's largest bank, BlackRock, the world's largest asset manager.
36:54
[SPEAKER_01]: and a lot of these other ones as well, obviously.
36:57
[SPEAKER_01]: If they're betting on this, it's hard to believe that Ethereum is going to be going anywhere.
37:02
[SPEAKER_01]: If they are just starting their building now.
37:04
[SPEAKER_01]: If they are all betting on this number one, I don't think it's going anywhere.
37:06
[SPEAKER_01]: Number two, I think it plays a role in the future.
37:10
[SPEAKER_01]: And so how do we get exposure?
37:11
[SPEAKER_01]: Well, we look at Ethereum in terms of exposure.
37:14
[SPEAKER_01]: So when we see prices down, you know, 40% or whatever it is right now from the highs,
37:20
[SPEAKER_01]: I still view it as a discount, man.
37:22
[SPEAKER_01]: And again, maybe we have a little bit more downside.
37:24
[SPEAKER_01]: We talked about some of the catalysts, but one endowed zoom out, I think it's hard to have a pretty negative view of Ethereum way down the road.
37:34
[SPEAKER_01]: And we can't aim and predict the future, but when you see all this stuff happening, it's really hard to bet against Ethereum.
37:41
[SPEAKER_01]: Right?
37:42
[SPEAKER_01]: And so that's my big takeway.
37:44
[SPEAKER_01]: yeah feeding into that point you know what's another huge part of a theorem it's stable coins and even those continue to grow We have two articles for this that we can show everyone one more thing one more thing Yeah, JP Morgan just before we move on to stable coins is there and they're accepting
38:02
[SPEAKER_02]: collateral for loans and that you've kind of seen this a bunch of different banks institutions and trading vehicles are starting to accept you know Bitcoin as collateral which I think is you know it's not breaking news that it's being accepted as collateral they're not the first to do it but just more and more are starting to do it which I think again is is bullish for Bitcoin just the more and more acceptance but let's move on to I know Ethereum is more tied to stable
38:29
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I mean, red dot just raised $107 million on their series B.
38:34
[SPEAKER_01]: To expand their stablecoin payments platform.
38:38
[SPEAKER_01]: So, I mean, there's more happening here.
38:40
[SPEAKER_01]: Again, they're continuing to raise money.
38:41
[SPEAKER_01]: Not a small amount of money either.
38:43
[SPEAKER_01]: There's a lot of attention.
38:44
[SPEAKER_01]: There's a lot of demand for infrastructure to be built out for this stuff.
38:49
[SPEAKER_01]: And that's why it's happening in the first place.
38:51
[SPEAKER_01]: So, stablecoins infrastructure building demand is increasing.
38:54
[SPEAKER_01]: That's why you're seeing this, they're raising $107 million.
38:59
[SPEAKER_01]: kind of take it for what it is.
39:01
[SPEAKER_01]: And then the next one, VISA is going to be launching their stablecoin settlement in the U.S. via circles of U.S. D.C. And this one's a little bit different because believe there's going to be in there already some structure on Solana in regards to VISA, but they're going to be working with Solana here too.
39:21
[SPEAKER_01]: And this kind of paints into our narrative
39:26
[SPEAKER_01]: beats all, right?
39:27
[SPEAKER_01]: We're not maxies over here.
39:28
[SPEAKER_01]: We don't believe in just Bitcoin.
39:30
[SPEAKER_01]: We don't believe in just Ethereum.
39:32
[SPEAKER_01]: We don't believe in just Solana or just XRP or fill in the blank.
39:35
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, we believe that Bitcoin Ethereum Solana, like all these blockchains, can coexist alongside each other.
39:42
[SPEAKER_01]: And then they can be used for different groups, for different things.
39:45
[SPEAKER_01]: And right now, it does look like a lot of institutional demand is more so Ethereum and we'll retail demand
39:51
[SPEAKER_01]: But that's starting the shift and we're seeing both, both get a ton of activity and a ton of interest.
39:57
[SPEAKER_01]: So you're looking at VISA, you're looking at red.pay, a lot of stuff going on here.
40:02
[SPEAKER_01]: In fact, there's a picture right below those links to you, though, and let's throw that one on the screen, too, because
40:09
[SPEAKER_01]: It feeds into what we were just talking about.
40:14
[SPEAKER_01]: And, you know, yeah, I mean, look at this, banks are settling payments with a visa on Solana.
40:18
[SPEAKER_01]: And they're already at $3.5 billion run rate.
40:23
[SPEAKER_01]: And so what this means is that,
40:25
[SPEAKER_01]: you know, as it says in the picture, some of my pilot reaches 3.5 billion dollars in annualized run rate as of the end of November according to visa.
40:34
[SPEAKER_01]: So, I mean guys, this stuff is common.
40:37
[SPEAKER_01]: It really is and we're moving fast and we're setting it up, but it still looks like we're in the early innings of this where the infrastructure is still getting set.
40:46
[SPEAKER_01]: The kind of onboarding is just begun.
40:48
[SPEAKER_01]: Like, I don't think we're in the late stages of this and we're seeing like headlines
40:55
[SPEAKER_01]: I would say aim us more towards the star or maybe the second or third inning as opposed to the end.
41:00
[SPEAKER_01]: So keep that in the back of your mind, but just a lot going on.
41:05
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, and there's people that continue to buy.
41:08
[SPEAKER_02]: So I think we cover anybody that makes big buys on the show.
41:11
[SPEAKER_02]: Obviously, sailor this week, bought some more Bitcoin and Kathy Woods buying.
41:17
[SPEAKER_02]: She's literally selling stocks to go buy different crypto.
41:23
[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, I guess there's still stocks, but crypto, you know, favored stocks.
41:26
[SPEAKER_02]: She's pulling out a summer AI trade.
41:28
[SPEAKER_02]: I know she trimmed some of her Tesla and they're going in their buying a bit
41:35
[SPEAKER_02]: I saw she's buying some, she's buying some, I have a full list here.
41:40
[SPEAKER_02]: Circle, bullish, coin, B.M.N.R.
41:44
[SPEAKER_02]: So it's like, you know, this is where the, this is where some of the big money's flowing and these, these things aren't, you know, six months a year, even two years.
41:55
[SPEAKER_02]: These are longer term, you know, plays traditionally for these large, these large whales.
42:00
[SPEAKER_01]: They are, man.
42:01
[SPEAKER_01]: And, you know, people have maimed on Kathy in recent years, but let me say her performance here this year is mighty good.
42:08
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, you look at Ark off those lows.
42:11
[SPEAKER_01]: She's been crushing it.
42:12
[SPEAKER_01]: And now, you know, she's you're right.
42:16
[SPEAKER_01]: She's getting more crypto exposure selling off other stocks looking at crypto as an ultimate area of value down here and we love to see it.
42:24
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, one year for arc 30% can't you know can't complain about that all time all time for arc 290% that goes back to 2015 but I just yet she had a big run up in COVID and then obviously crashed down with everything else arc hasn't gotten back to its highs, but I think it transitioned from
42:44
[SPEAKER_02]: kind of, if you're talking about arc specifically, it was that the change of the internet COVID that internet play and buying the bottom of all those internet stocks like a zoom down and then transitioning out of that during the downturn of 22 and into this AI slash crypto trade is going to take arc to new all-time highs if it can get there.
43:06
[SPEAKER_01]: No, as you say, I mean, you look at it, you know, up 30% on the year, Nasdaq's up, I think, 19%, I think spies up 15% big wins red on the year.
43:15
[SPEAKER_01]: So, like, you know, she's been out performing almost all of the major assets here.
43:20
[SPEAKER_02]: Uh, and she takes, uh, some, he and rightfully so, I mean, everybody should, if, you know, we, we hold ourselves accountable too to stuff that we make calls, especially inside the community, but it's, you know, you're not always going to be right.
43:31
[SPEAKER_02]: Nobody has a crystal ball, but it's that long-term, long-term view and long-term play.
43:35
[SPEAKER_02]: But I think, uh, I went to end the show on a fun note here.
43:39
[SPEAKER_02]: It's just, there's just so much negativity.
43:41
[SPEAKER_02]: And I've talked about, I kind of that A-block B-block rule right on live TV.
43:45
[SPEAKER_02]: It's like, hey, whenever Bitcoin is going up and it's flying high, it's the A-block.
43:50
[SPEAKER_02]: It's the hottest thing in the world.
43:51
[SPEAKER_02]: Everybody loves it.
43:52
[SPEAKER_02]: They want to talk about it.
43:54
[SPEAKER_02]: And then when it goes down, like it has an violent way.
43:56
[SPEAKER_02]: Again, it's back in the A-block or the B-block.
43:59
[SPEAKER_02]: And everybody's crap at on it and the same people that we're saying, oh, yeah, it looks like the momentum.
44:03
[SPEAKER_02]: It's going to fly higher, saying, hey, what?
44:05
[SPEAKER_02]: What is this asset bring like just, you know, is it going to go lower?
44:08
[SPEAKER_02]: So I think we just got to remember when you're in the trenches like we are every week, really every day for us and then if you're listening with us and tune in every week, it's, you know, there's ups and downs and I think you got to remember.
44:22
[SPEAKER_02]: when, you know, you're really, really high.
44:24
[SPEAKER_02]: There's going to be some fun high stuff and fun clips, but let's go back to, let's go back to, you know, the lows of 2022.
44:32
[SPEAKER_02]: You know, and this is, again, this is how I'm seeing people talk, not as bad, I guess, but let's go back to Jim Cramer in 2022 talking about crypto and Bitcoin.
44:43
[SPEAKER_00]: I do know that, again, the faith of the American people shocked.
44:49
[SPEAKER_00]: Just shocked.
44:50
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, I still think that I think that crypto, I mean, I sold them a crypto.
44:55
[SPEAKER_00]: I announced everything on TV, what I did with crypto.
44:58
[SPEAKER_00]: But I would not touch crypto in a million years.
45:01
[SPEAKER_00]: Because I wouldn't trust the deposit bank.
45:04
[SPEAKER_00]: And you're making no distinction between centralized, decentralized, they fought regulation, they didn't mind regulation, and you don't have regulation.
45:13
[SPEAKER_00]: So if you have your money and either's, I'm not calling you an idiot.
45:17
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm just saying you're using a lot of blind faith.
45:19
[SPEAKER_00]: And I like to have my money to tape you Morgan.
45:22
[SPEAKER_00]: And I check on Monday to see whether my balance is there.
45:25
[SPEAKER_00]: Roop, it's there.
45:27
[SPEAKER_00]: It feels good.
45:28
[SPEAKER_00]: Look at those prices.
45:29
[SPEAKER_00]: Why didn't your money up?
45:30
[SPEAKER_00]: Well, I had my, I'm not going to mention the firm that I had my money in, but it was a fight to get the money out.
45:36
[SPEAKER_01]: Is that an $11.00.
45:37
[SPEAKER_01]: I want it.
45:38
[SPEAKER_02]: And I'm very, $11.00.
45:40
[SPEAKER_02]: $11.00.
45:41
[SPEAKER_02]: I want a $34 coin base, $1,600 Ethereum, $16,000 Bitcoin.
45:49
[SPEAKER_02]: well days and credits us we were making episodes we were making episodes and we're still here so again sell all your crypto wouldn't touch in a million years even Jim Kramer himself has bought crypto since then but since he said that you know big wins up 500 percent so uh
46:07
[SPEAKER_02]: Don't get wrapped up.
46:09
[SPEAKER_02]: You got to say level headed.
46:10
[SPEAKER_02]: You got to stay educated.
46:12
[SPEAKER_02]: You know, we're not financial advisors.
46:13
[SPEAKER_02]: We're just friends talking crypto.
46:15
[SPEAKER_02]: This isn't personal financial advice, but when when when all hope is lost and things are deadly, take a step back.
46:21
[SPEAKER_02]: Stay educated.
46:22
[SPEAKER_02]: If you're still listening this episode on the back end, you're obviously doing the right thing.
46:25
[SPEAKER_02]: But again, this is when when everything's dead and we're not touching it and it's going to zero.
46:31
[SPEAKER_02]: I don't know.
46:31
[SPEAKER_02]: Sometimes that's that's the best time.
46:34
[SPEAKER_02]: And it's it's an interesting spot to be having these conversations again with Bitcoin at 80 to 5,000.
46:40
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, I'm not 20,000, right?
46:42
[SPEAKER_02]: So like if it go, it kind of go lower.
46:45
[SPEAKER_02]: Absolutely.
46:46
[SPEAKER_02]: Absolutely.
46:48
[SPEAKER_02]: If it has a typical retracement,
46:50
[SPEAKER_02]: of what 70, 80% of past cycles, I mean, it could go down to 40, 50, 30, it could go to any price, right?
46:56
[SPEAKER_02]: That's what the market is.
46:58
[SPEAKER_02]: But it's interesting to see at the sky as falling at 80k.
47:03
[SPEAKER_02]: And we said this so many times before when we were in fear, and Bitcoin was 105k.
47:07
[SPEAKER_02]: And we were like, we were hitting the fear.
47:10
[SPEAKER_02]: And I was like, man, this is,
47:11
[SPEAKER_02]: This is awesome.
47:12
[SPEAKER_02]: We're hitting fear and big coins 100k now.
47:14
[SPEAKER_02]: We're an extreme fear.
47:15
[SPEAKER_02]: It's 85k.
47:16
[SPEAKER_02]: But I thought that was important to kind of go back and fun.
47:20
[SPEAKER_02]: But, you know, it's one of those times where, you know, don't lose unless your thesis has changed.
47:26
[SPEAKER_02]: If you've done your research and your thesis has changed, that's one thing.
47:29
[SPEAKER_02]: But don't lose your conviction over the sky as falling crowd.
47:32
[SPEAKER_02]: Because that's when you're on one side of the boat.
47:35
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, absolutely, man.
47:37
[SPEAKER_01]: Well, I think that's going to wrap us up to you, though.
47:39
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, we're almost 50 minutes in new it, but man, we appreciate everyone watching.
47:43
[SPEAKER_01]: I've seen some of you in the chat.
47:44
[SPEAKER_01]: I've looked over, giving your support tuning in, saying what's up.
47:48
[SPEAKER_01]: People tell us, hey, we're avid pod listeners and, you know, they're trying to tune into the lives now.
47:53
[SPEAKER_01]: Good to have everyone here.
47:55
[SPEAKER_01]: Love to see even A, even McNutson here.
47:58
[SPEAKER_01]: I see him in the job box.
48:00
[SPEAKER_01]: Man, everyone, thank you all for tuning in, and it has been another great episode of the Crypto 101 rundown.
48:06
[SPEAKER_01]: And we'll see all of you at the same time.
48:08
[SPEAKER_01]: Well, not the same time, same place next week.
48:11
[SPEAKER_01]: We're taking it the right way.
48:12
[SPEAKER_02]: We can spit for that.
48:14
[SPEAKER_02]: We will do one.
48:15
[SPEAKER_02]: I think I have one schedule, if anybody wants to join, they can hop on.
48:19
[SPEAKER_02]: I know I think Nick Nut and I are scheduled for next Tuesday.
48:22
[SPEAKER_02]: We're gonna probe that one.
48:24
[SPEAKER_02]: And then I will, I'll talk to you offline.
48:25
[SPEAKER_02]: We're gonna try and do some like,
48:27
[SPEAKER_02]: year interview or 26 out of just for fun we won't do that live and then we'll try to build a backlog of interviews and content so even though we will be taking a break over the holidays to be with our families um you know the podcast channel and the YouTube will be active there you go well it's again everybody thank you all for tuning in and we'll see all of you very very soon and if we don't see before the holidays we hope you have a great holiday