Latest / Toadstool Sports / Monday BEST BETS | On the Road | MLB & WNBA & World Cup | 6/22/26

Transcript

Monday BEST BETS | On the Road | MLB & WNBA & World Cup | 6/22/26 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:16
  Speaker 1: You gotta slip in your palm.
• 0:19
  Speaker 2: Man, a hole in your chicks, black coffee on the
• 0:22
  Speaker 2: felt man, you look like a Mence three teen Parlette
• 0:27
  Speaker 2: turned the dust in your head. Now you stare at
• 0:30
  Speaker 2: the chips like they made you this man. But don't
• 0:34
  Speaker 2: you go quiet? Don't you fade from the floor. Your
• 0:37
  Speaker 2: name steal mean something on somebody for show?
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: Put the glass down, baby, look at me. Now, hold on,
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: hold on, nothing.
• 0:54
  Speaker 3: Nice not now, hold on, hold on and me for.
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: That hot but it all get the crown.
• 1:14
  Speaker 3: Hold on, hold on, stay with me.
• 1:19
  Speaker 4: Now, what's up, every buddy?
• 1:29
  Speaker 5: It's towed back with you with Toadstool Sports, Monday, June
• 1:34
  Speaker 5: twenty second. We went two and one on the show yesterday,
• 1:39
  Speaker 5: so the run, you know, continues one to twenty seven,
• 1:42
  Speaker 5: sixty four and seven last seventy nine days.
• 1:45
  Speaker 6: Pretty good run, so I'll take that.
• 1:48
  Speaker 5: We had to win early with the Spain team total
• 1:52
  Speaker 5: over three and a half. They won four to nothing,
• 1:55
  Speaker 5: but I think it was easier than that score made
• 1:57
  Speaker 5: it look.
• 1:57
  Speaker 6: Spain. Their offense was up huge numbers in the game.
• 2:01
  Speaker 5: They scored three goals in the first I don't know,
• 2:04
  Speaker 5: twenty twenty five minutes something like that. I'm like, all right,
• 2:07
  Speaker 5: we're gonna get this one, right, they only need one
• 2:09
  Speaker 5: more goal. They scored the fourth goal really like right
• 2:15
  Speaker 5: at the beginning of the second half, like right after halftime,
• 2:19
  Speaker 5: and then they never scored again because I mean, I
• 2:22
  Speaker 5: guess they sorted in need to but whatever, I mean,
• 2:25
  Speaker 5: they put up a ton of offense. If you'll get
• 2:27
  Speaker 5: the stats in that game, it was domination from Spain.
• 2:30
  Speaker 5: If you played the spread, you want it on Spain
• 2:32
  Speaker 5: as well, but I'll take it either way you played it, it
• 2:36
  Speaker 5: was a winner. San Francisco did not get the win
• 2:40
  Speaker 5: because their offense is absolutely putrid. Talking about baseball, the
• 2:44
  Speaker 5: Giants logan web was fine. Just San Francisco putting up
• 2:49
  Speaker 5: one run against Ryan Gusto in the first five innings
• 2:52
  Speaker 5: or whatever. You can't you cannot do that, man, even
• 2:56
  Speaker 5: if you're a bad offense, you got to put something
• 2:59
  Speaker 5: on the board against Gus.
• 3:00
  Speaker 6: I mean, this is ridiculous. So that was a loss.
• 3:03
  Speaker 5: The other baseball play didn't happen Toronto and Chicago Cubs
• 3:07
  Speaker 5: got rained out, so that was what that did not happen.
• 3:10
  Speaker 5: And then the WNBA play wasn't looking good. The Sparks
• 3:15
  Speaker 5: were down double digits in the third quarter, mostly because
• 3:19
  Speaker 5: who were they playing. I forget oh the Liberty. Yeah,
• 3:21
  Speaker 5: the Liberty were hitting a ton of threes. It was
• 3:24
  Speaker 5: thrown off the game completely. The Liberty hit like half
• 3:27
  Speaker 5: of their threes up to that point in the game.
• 3:30
  Speaker 5: You got to be kidding me that they had whatever
• 3:32
  Speaker 5: it was. They think the Liberty had at least seven
• 3:34
  Speaker 5: more threes or something at that point in the game.
• 3:38
  Speaker 5: I don't know what happened, but I stopped paying any attention.
• 3:41
  Speaker 5: I was just looking at the score. I'm not even
• 3:43
  Speaker 5: watching the game, but I was looking at the score.
• 3:45
  Speaker 5: I was like, yeah, whatever we lost. I tweeted out
• 3:48
  Speaker 5: how bad WNBA has been recently. Then I look a
• 3:51
  Speaker 5: little while later, and oh, the game is tied with
• 3:53
  Speaker 5: four minutes. If LA came all the way back, I'm like, okay, well,
• 3:57
  Speaker 5: don't tease me, don't don't tie it and then still
• 4:00
  Speaker 5: not cover. But that's not what they did. They actually
• 4:02
  Speaker 5: won the game outright. Biological clock theory. Man, going to
• 4:07
  Speaker 5: the west coast late in the game, you might fall
• 4:09
  Speaker 5: apart if you're going east to west. I think maybe
• 4:12
  Speaker 5: New York did get a little tired there, so we
• 4:14
  Speaker 5: got the outright win with LA. A lot of my
• 4:18
  Speaker 5: underdogs in the WNBA. The ones that win they I
• 4:22
  Speaker 5: mean the ones that hit, they win the game outright.
• 4:24
  Speaker 5: So that's what happened. I don't really love the board today.
• 4:27
  Speaker 5: It is a bigger baseball board than usual for a Monday.
• 4:31
  Speaker 5: Most teams are playing. I think only four baseball teams
• 4:34
  Speaker 5: are not playing today, And yeah, I don't have a
• 4:38
  Speaker 5: whole lot else to say about that. I'm gonna give
• 4:40
  Speaker 5: out two baseball players that are mostly situational, but I
• 4:44
  Speaker 5: also think we get the better pitcher as well. But
• 4:47
  Speaker 5: I'm kind of going against what I do most of
• 4:50
  Speaker 5: the time, and I'm actually gonna go somewhat against some
• 4:53
  Speaker 5: of the matchup numbers slightly. But I think the situations
• 4:57
  Speaker 5: line up, and I think we're taking the better pitcher.
• 5:00
  Speaker 5: So that's what we're gonna do here, Dirty Sock, what's up?
• 5:04
  Speaker 5: Thanks for hanging out. Don't tell me you were actually
• 5:06
  Speaker 5: watching that game. I didn't see what happened. I know
• 5:08
  Speaker 5: they won by one. I was not gonna be I'm
• 5:11
  Speaker 5: not watching the WNBA. I'm never gonna watch that. By
• 5:14
  Speaker 5: the way, we do have ESPN on over here, and
• 5:17
  Speaker 5: they're talking about how the Yannis trade situation. There's going
• 5:22
  Speaker 5: to be a trade announced by tonight or tomorrow, and
• 5:25
  Speaker 5: it's going to be either the Celtics or the Heat
• 5:28
  Speaker 5: getting y Honest, I'm gonna be honest, man, I hope
• 5:31
  Speaker 5: it's not the Celtics. As a Celtic fan. The only
• 5:36
  Speaker 5: way that I would do that, like if you could
• 5:38
  Speaker 5: somehow not give up too much to get him, Like
• 5:41
  Speaker 5: I think, the only way that I would do that
• 5:42
  Speaker 5: is if you're primarily trading draft picks, Like that's the
• 5:45
  Speaker 5: only way that I would do it. I think if
• 5:48
  Speaker 5: the Celtics find a way to do it without losing Brown,
• 5:51
  Speaker 5: then maybe it's okay. Because you want to form a
• 5:54
  Speaker 5: big three like That's how you do it in the NBA.
• 5:57
  Speaker 5: That's how the Celtics did it when they won with Pierce, Cage,
• 6:00
  Speaker 5: Ray Allen. You can't give up one of your big
• 6:03
  Speaker 5: three here.
• 6:04
  Speaker 6: You can't give up Brown or.
• 6:06
  Speaker 5: Tatum, like you if you're gonna get Giannis, you want
• 6:08
  Speaker 5: to have the big three. You want to have those
• 6:11
  Speaker 5: three guys, Tatum, Brown, Giannis. You know what I mean.
• 6:14
  Speaker 5: So that's what I have to say about that. Otherwise,
• 6:17
  Speaker 5: let the Heat have him. I'm not a heat hater
• 6:20
  Speaker 5: anymore because they don't have Lebron, so whatever, they're just
• 6:23
  Speaker 5: whatever to me. I'm not I don't like out of
• 6:25
  Speaker 5: Bio though, but you know the shit that he pulled
• 6:27
  Speaker 5: with that stupid scoring record Argentina in Austria under for
• 6:33
  Speaker 5: saab here you lost Ivory Coast the other day. I
• 6:38
  Speaker 5: didn't see how that happened. I wasn't watching it, I
• 6:40
  Speaker 5: didn't pay attention to it. I don't really have a
• 6:43
  Speaker 5: feel for the soccer games today, so I don't know.
• 6:48
  Speaker 5: I suppose under could be a way to look because
• 6:50
  Speaker 5: I think Argentina is just all hyped right now because
• 6:53
  Speaker 5: of the messy hat trick in their other game. But
• 6:56
  Speaker 5: I don't know both teams that they put up three
• 6:58
  Speaker 5: goals in their first match, so I don't think I
• 7:01
  Speaker 5: would necessarily disagree with an under. But I prefer unders
• 7:05
  Speaker 5: in the first game because there's a lot of rests,
• 7:08
  Speaker 5: so the defense is the rest of the offense is
• 7:10
  Speaker 5: gonna be out of rhythm, the quicker turnaround time. I
• 7:13
  Speaker 5: don't like the unders as much, which is what I
• 7:15
  Speaker 5: meant to say when I was talking about the team
• 7:17
  Speaker 5: total over with Spain yesterday and another reason I liked
• 7:20
  Speaker 5: that yesterday.
• 7:22
  Speaker 6: But yeah, one.
• 7:25
  Speaker 5: Oh Ivory Coast, I assume they're winning one oh at
• 7:28
  Speaker 5: the sixty seven minute mark and then lost two to one.
• 7:31
  Speaker 5: Germany put up a goal in extra time apparently, Yeah,
• 7:36
  Speaker 5: I think when I was looking at that it was
• 7:37
  Speaker 5: a one to one. It was looking like it was
• 7:39
  Speaker 5: gonna be a one one draw when I briefly looked
• 7:42
  Speaker 5: at the score. Yeah, I mean there might be some
• 7:45
  Speaker 5: rigging going on. Germany is the better team, but yeah,
• 7:49
  Speaker 5: I don't know. We'll talk about the World Cup and
• 7:53
  Speaker 5: we get to. But also the match that France had,
• 7:56
  Speaker 5: France and Senegal, they had a ton of late goals
• 8:00
  Speaker 5: come home in that game, like France was winning the
• 8:03
  Speaker 5: game two to nothing or one nothing I think, and
• 8:05
  Speaker 5: then a whole bunch of goals got scored. So there
• 8:08
  Speaker 5: could be under potential in their matches today too, But
• 8:11
  Speaker 5: I don't know. Watching the live feed all right, of
• 8:17
  Speaker 5: the WNBA game. All right, let's get into I don't
• 8:19
  Speaker 5: want this show to take that long. This is way
• 8:22
  Speaker 5: too much of an intro. We have all evening baseball here,
• 8:25
  Speaker 5: So maybe I should start with World Cup because there
• 8:27
  Speaker 5: is afternoon World Cup. But I'm gonna get to it anyway.
• 8:30
  Speaker 5: I don't have a play in the World Cup, especially
• 8:33
  Speaker 5: not an early one like I did yesterday. Yankees at
• 8:36
  Speaker 5: Detroit is the first game up. Detroit is staying at home,
• 8:40
  Speaker 5: so the travel spot helps Detroit slightly. But they did
• 8:45
  Speaker 5: just sweep the White Sox, so Detroit possible let down.
• 8:49
  Speaker 5: But do you really overlook the Yankees. Probably not, Like
• 8:52
  Speaker 5: no team really overlooks the Yankees. Yankees are probably gonna
• 8:55
  Speaker 5: be in a bounce back mode though, because they did
• 8:57
  Speaker 5: just lose to the Reds.
• 8:59
  Speaker 6: They had to go up again.
• 9:00
  Speaker 5: Chase Burns yesterday and Burns did well, so the Yankees
• 9:05
  Speaker 5: could be in a bounce back spot. Starting a road
• 9:08
  Speaker 5: trip here for the Yankees. But a lot of times
• 9:09
  Speaker 5: it's good to just get out of home start a
• 9:11
  Speaker 5: road trip focused on baseball. Yankees. As far as their bullpen,
• 9:16
  Speaker 5: they do have the better of these two bullpens. They
• 9:18
  Speaker 5: did use a lot of guys out of it yesterday.
• 9:21
  Speaker 5: They used five relief pitchers yesterday, which is not great.
• 9:24
  Speaker 6: Detroit used three. I think the bullpens are somewhat close.
• 9:28
  Speaker 5: The Yankees are ranked eighth in Whip Detroit is eighteenth,
• 9:32
  Speaker 5: but they both have the raised in the threes. Detroit's
• 9:35
  Speaker 5: a little bit more rested, so that makes that battle
• 9:38
  Speaker 5: a little bit close. Yankees are the way better offense.
• 9:41
  Speaker 5: They're number two, Detroit number twenty in ops. And the
• 9:45
  Speaker 5: Yankees will be going with Garrett Cole, who almost got
• 9:48
  Speaker 5: the start yesterday, but they decided to use whatever his
• 9:52
  Speaker 5: name is, Ramir Erosmo Ramirez. No, what's his name again, Elmer, Yeah,
• 9:58
  Speaker 5: that's right, the glue guy, Elm No, Elmer Rodriguez, not
• 10:03
  Speaker 5: Ramirez Rodriguez whatever. Garrett Cole is pitching today, two point
• 10:06
  Speaker 5: five to seven e RA one Whip. He's been really
• 10:10
  Speaker 5: good on the road so far. One point six' Nine Roady.
• 10:13
  Speaker 5: Ray cole has made five starts so far since missing
• 10:17
  Speaker 5: basically an entire season due to.
• 10:19
  Speaker 6: Injury he's been okay this.
• 10:21
  Speaker 5: YEAR i, mean he's been good this, year except he
• 10:23
  Speaker 5: had two kind of bad starts Against cleveland for some,
• 10:26
  Speaker 5: reason but every other start has been. Good he bounced
• 10:29
  Speaker 5: back with a good start against The White, sox who
• 10:31
  Speaker 5: are a good. Offense SO i generally Expect cole to
• 10:35
  Speaker 5: pitch well. Here he's got good numbers pretty much across the,
• 10:37
  Speaker 5: board low hit, rate low walk, rate his strikeout rate
• 10:40
  Speaker 5: is Decent cole Against. Detroit he's got good numbers here
• 10:47
  Speaker 5: forty five at bats. Domination as far as the command numbers,
• 10:51
  Speaker 5: here twenty one strikeouts in one, walk that's pretty, ridiculous
• 10:55
  Speaker 5: although they do have some extra base hits against him
• 10:57
  Speaker 5: two hundred, average five ninety five ops. Allowed so, YEAH
• 11:01
  Speaker 5: i Expect cole to pitch well. Here Fromer valdez is
• 11:04
  Speaker 5: pitching For. Detroit he's kind of a mixed bag four
• 11:08
  Speaker 5: point zero NINE, era one point three to five whip
• 11:10
  Speaker 5: is not very. Good he isn't as good at home
• 11:13
  Speaker 5: four point nine four HOME, era so you're getting the
• 11:17
  Speaker 5: advantage of the home road. Splits you're getting those With
• 11:20
  Speaker 5: Garrett cole. Here valdez was good in his last start Against.
• 11:23
  Speaker 5: HOUSTON i gave that out as an under first five,
• 11:26
  Speaker 5: play which was a. Win part of that handicap was
• 11:29
  Speaker 5: That valdez would be pumped up to play his former
• 11:32
  Speaker 5: team for the first, Time houston because they got rid of.
• 11:35
  Speaker 5: Him and, yes he pitched pretty well in that one
• 11:37
  Speaker 5: Of his walk number has been an issue all. Year
• 11:40
  Speaker 5: it was An it was an issue in that start.
• 11:42
  Speaker 5: Too his hit rate is, okay his walk rate is
• 11:45
  Speaker 5: definitely too. High his strikeout rate has gone down from
• 11:48
  Speaker 5: what it once, was SO i don't know what the
• 11:50
  Speaker 5: deal is with.
• 11:51
  Speaker 6: That but he is also a ground ball, pitcher so.
• 11:54
  Speaker 5: That kind of saves him in some. Ways BUT i
• 11:56
  Speaker 5: don't think he's a very good pitcher. Really right, now
• 11:59
  Speaker 5: he does not look like he's as good as he
• 12:01
  Speaker 5: was With. Houston numbers against The yankees are, okay, though
• 12:04
  Speaker 5: in seventy two at, bats two thirty six, average seven
• 12:07
  Speaker 5: oh one, ops twenty two to eight strikeout walk ratio
• 12:11
  Speaker 5: decent numbers, allo THOUGH i remember last year The yankees
• 12:15
  Speaker 5: totally got into his head and sent uh like just
• 12:17
  Speaker 5: put him on complete. Tilt if you remember. THAT i
• 12:20
  Speaker 5: think it was a game In houston Where valdez couldn't
• 12:23
  Speaker 5: get out of the inning that he was. In he
• 12:24
  Speaker 5: gave up a Grand slam and then he started throwing
• 12:27
  Speaker 5: at batters AND i think he got suspended for that.
• 12:30
  Speaker 5: Too SO i don't know How valdez is going to
• 12:33
  Speaker 5: react to facing The yankees. Again i'm not sure that
• 12:35
  Speaker 5: he's faced them since. THEN i don't, know but that
• 12:38
  Speaker 5: is just what sticks in my. MIND i, MEAN i
• 12:41
  Speaker 5: think The yankees probably are the right side. HERE i
• 12:43
  Speaker 5: think they have the advantage in the starting pitching and
• 12:46
  Speaker 5: in the, bullpen like probably a slight bullpen. Edge at
• 12:50
  Speaker 5: Least yankees are not getting the money though eighty two
• 12:53
  Speaker 5: percent of the tickets sixty three percent of the cash on,
• 12:55
  Speaker 5: them you know you're gonna pay a. PRICE i think
• 12:57
  Speaker 5: that's the reason why The yankees are not getting the.
• 13:00
  Speaker 5: Money you're having to pay like minus one thirty for
• 13:03
  Speaker 5: them on the road because you're paying for The yankees
• 13:05
  Speaker 5: plus the name Of Garrett. Cole So i'm not gonna
• 13:09
  Speaker 5: get involved in this, game BUT i think The yankees
• 13:11
  Speaker 5: are probably the side to look at in that. One
• 13:13
  Speaker 5: Though mac couldo what's? Up thanks for hanging out all?
• 13:18
  Speaker 5: Right next game up is AS i keep not clicking
• 13:22
  Speaker 5: on the right window, Here, Yes Kansas city And Tampa.
• 13:25
  Speaker 5: Bay Tampa bay is also staying at home. Here they
• 13:28
  Speaker 5: just Beat washington. Yesterday Kansas city is coming in off
• 13:31
  Speaker 5: of losing the last game of The Saint louis series
• 13:34
  Speaker 5: twelve to. Ten dustin may not good in that game
• 13:37
  Speaker 5: For Saint, louis But Saint louis still. Won Kansas city
• 13:41
  Speaker 5: lost a three game win streak with that. LOSS i
• 13:44
  Speaker 5: don't know if that's gonna hang them over or. NOT i,
• 13:46
  Speaker 5: mean you're probably not gonna Overlook Tampa. Bay if You're Kansas,
• 13:50
  Speaker 5: city you know you're probably gonna try to win these.
• 13:52
  Speaker 5: Games Tampa bay one of the better records in THE,
• 13:57
  Speaker 5: al so you're probably not gonna overlook. Them if You're Kansas,
• 14:00
  Speaker 5: City Kansas city is starting a road, trip probably will be.
• 14:03
  Speaker 5: Focused they do not have a good bullpen. Though in
• 14:05
  Speaker 5: these four relief pitchers, Yesterday Tampa bay whu's. THREE i
• 14:09
  Speaker 5: don't like either bullpen, here But Tampa bay is ranked,
• 14:12
  Speaker 5: seventeenth although their era is not very.
• 14:14
  Speaker 6: Good Kansas city is one of the worst.
• 14:17
  Speaker 5: Bullpens they're twenty, eighth so they are definitely a bullpen
• 14:21
  Speaker 5: that you want to avoid or. Fade, Offensively Tampa bay,
• 14:25
  Speaker 5: Seventeenth Kansas city is. Eighteen so these teams are in
• 14:27
  Speaker 5: the mid range of offenses right. Now they've both been
• 14:30
  Speaker 5: kind of up and down this season. Offensively Kansas city
• 14:34
  Speaker 5: is really bad offensively on the road, though and given
• 14:37
  Speaker 5: this pitching, MATCHUP i do not Expect Kansas city to
• 14:39
  Speaker 5: score much. Here Michael waka is pitching For Kansas, city,
• 14:43
  Speaker 5: though so he might be able to help them as,
• 14:45
  Speaker 5: well because he is pretty good three point six FOUR
• 14:48
  Speaker 5: era one point one seven. Whip he is not as
• 14:51
  Speaker 5: good on the road, though one or four point four
• 14:54
  Speaker 5: to four roadie, ray excuse, me so walk up pitch
• 14:57
  Speaker 5: is better at. Home he's been de he sent basically
• 15:00
  Speaker 5: the entire. Season he's had a couple of bad starts in,
• 15:03
  Speaker 5: there but you pretty much know what you're getting out
• 15:06
  Speaker 5: of him more often than. Not he's got a pretty
• 15:07
  Speaker 5: low hit, rate low walk rate. Too strike out rate also.
• 15:11
  Speaker 5: Low he doesn't really strike guys. Out that's just the
• 15:14
  Speaker 5: way that he. Pitches as numbers Against Tampa, bay, though
• 15:17
  Speaker 5: are not. Good in sixty at bats three seventeen average,
• 15:21
  Speaker 5: allowed nine to forty three oh, ps fourteen to four
• 15:24
  Speaker 5: strike out walk, ratio those numbers are, good but the
• 15:27
  Speaker 5: rest of these numbers are really. Bad so he does
• 15:29
  Speaker 5: not draw a good. Matchup as far as the fact
• 15:32
  Speaker 5: that these hitters have seen him a lot and they
• 15:35
  Speaker 5: have hit him. Well and that was in how many
• 15:36
  Speaker 5: at bats fifty? One so or, no excusely not fifty.
• 15:42
  Speaker 5: ONE i was looking at the wrong, team my, mistake hang,
• 15:44
  Speaker 5: on that Was Saint. Louis the rest of the NUMBERS
• 15:46
  Speaker 5: i gave out were right. Though that's sixty at bats
• 15:49
  Speaker 5: Against toronto Against Tampa. Bay excuse, me, yes but his
• 15:53
  Speaker 5: numbers are bad Against Tampa Bay Drew rasmus and his
• 15:56
  Speaker 5: picture For Tampa. BAY i mean people are starting to
• 15:58
  Speaker 5: put him in The Cy young. DISCUSSION i don't think
• 16:01
  Speaker 5: that's gonna. Happen but he's been really good. Recently two
• 16:05
  Speaker 5: point five to ninety ra point eighty eight. Whip he's
• 16:08
  Speaker 5: been only slightly worse at home two point eight to
• 16:11
  Speaker 5: eight home, era not bad at. All he's been excellent
• 16:14
  Speaker 5: in every start this. Month he's got twenty nine strikeouts
• 16:17
  Speaker 5: in one walk and one run allout in twenty one
• 16:20
  Speaker 5: innings this, month nine hits, allowed and he faced The
• 16:24
  Speaker 5: dodgers last time out and did really well against. Them
• 16:27
  Speaker 5: so he is definitely in a groove right. Now he's
• 16:32
  Speaker 5: definitely pitching, really really well right. NOW i think he's
• 16:35
  Speaker 5: definitely playabolt right now Against Kansas.
• 16:39
  Speaker 6: City he also has good.
• 16:40
  Speaker 5: Numbers in thirty seven at, bats twelve to one strike,
• 16:42
  Speaker 5: out walk ratio very. Good only two extra base hits,
• 16:46
  Speaker 5: allowed both doubles From witt And. Garcia one sixty two
• 16:50
  Speaker 5: batting average, allowed four hundred. Ops really really good numbers.
• 16:54
  Speaker 5: There so the matchup edge looks like it is With
• 16:57
  Speaker 5: Tampa bay, here and they are getting the, money AND
• 16:59
  Speaker 5: i was thinking about putting them on my card. HERE
• 17:01
  Speaker 5: i Like Tampa bay here based on the, matchup but
• 17:04
  Speaker 5: you're definitely paying for. It you're paying about minus one
• 17:07
  Speaker 5: ninety For Tampa bay. HERE i Guess rasmussen is no
• 17:11
  Speaker 5: longer under the, radar and that's what worries me BECAUSE
• 17:13
  Speaker 5: i love playing On, rasmussen you, know playing unders in
• 17:17
  Speaker 5: his games like he's been under the radar for most
• 17:21
  Speaker 5: of this.
• 17:21
  Speaker 6: Time but now it looks like he's no longer that.
• 17:23
  Speaker 6: Way SO i don't.
• 17:24
  Speaker 5: Know if you're gonna Play tampa, here you're gonna have
• 17:27
  Speaker 5: to play like a run line with, them and the
• 17:28
  Speaker 5: totals low at seven and a, HALF i don't, REALLY
• 17:31
  Speaker 5: i don't, know, MAN i don't know IF i love
• 17:33
  Speaker 5: that where runs might be at a premium, Here but
• 17:36
  Speaker 5: it does look like the matchup Favorite Tampa bay. Here
• 17:39
  Speaker 5: eighty five percent of the, tickets eighty eight percent of
• 17:41
  Speaker 5: the cash On Tampa.
• 17:42
  Speaker 6: Bay, yeah IF i was gonna do, IT i think
• 17:44
  Speaker 6: that's WHAT i would.
• 17:45
  Speaker 5: DO i would make a run line With Tampa, bay
• 17:47
  Speaker 5: like make your own minus one run line to knock
• 17:49
  Speaker 5: the price down or fine a minus one run, line
• 17:52
  Speaker 5: or you might actually it might be a minus one
• 17:54
  Speaker 5: and a half run. Line you might have to lay
• 17:57
  Speaker 5: there and in a low scoring game like, that needing
• 17:59
  Speaker 5: them to win two when they might not bat in
• 18:01
  Speaker 5: the ninth, inning it gets a little bit questionable. THERE
• 18:05
  Speaker 5: i wanted to find a way to maybe try to
• 18:07
  Speaker 5: do that and Play Tampa, bay BUT i Guess i'll
• 18:10
  Speaker 5: leave it off my. Card BUT i think IF i
• 18:11
  Speaker 5: was gonna add another, PLAY i would do something like
• 18:14
  Speaker 5: that and try to find a way to Play Tampa.
• 18:16
  Speaker 6: Bay, There hindi and what's? Up, yeah thanks for hanging.
• 18:19
  Speaker 5: Out The tadpoles is at my fan, Base The Tadpole
• 18:26
  Speaker 5: Army texas At. Miami, man we've only gone through two
• 18:29
  Speaker 5: games so. Far we're twenty minutes. In i'm. Fucked miami
• 18:35
  Speaker 5: is on a nice roll right. Now they've won four
• 18:37
  Speaker 5: games in a. Row they just swept The giants and
• 18:39
  Speaker 5: WHICH i don't want to remember because that was a
• 18:42
  Speaker 5: loss on the show. Yesterday the only. Loss miami is
• 18:45
  Speaker 5: staying at home to Play texas, here So miami does
• 18:49
  Speaker 5: have a travel edge. Here texas is coming in from, home,
• 18:52
  Speaker 5: though so teams starting a road trip usually are. FOCUSED
• 18:56
  Speaker 5: i just don't love playing The east coast To west coast,
• 18:58
  Speaker 5: Thing but other than, THAT i think these teams are
• 19:01
  Speaker 5: mostly fine to start the road. Trip texas is coming
• 19:06
  Speaker 5: off Beating San diego in their last, series So texas
• 19:08
  Speaker 5: maybe turning this thing around a little. Bit they're better
• 19:11
  Speaker 5: than their record looks at, least But texas you pretty
• 19:14
  Speaker 5: much know what you get out of, them like their
• 19:16
  Speaker 5: offense is not, good but their pitching is. Good texas
• 19:21
  Speaker 5: they used three relief pitchers. Yesterday their bullpen is, good
• 19:25
  Speaker 5: Though miami also does have a good, bullpen but.
• 19:28
  Speaker 6: They used four relief pitchers.
• 19:30
  Speaker 5: Yesterday they've had some heavy bullpen usage, recently SO i
• 19:33
  Speaker 5: probably Give texas a little bit of a bullpen edge.
• 19:36
  Speaker 5: Year even Though miami's ranked, Third texas is ranked. Seventh
• 19:39
  Speaker 5: these are close, bullpens BUT i THINK i would Prefer
• 19:42
  Speaker 5: texas's Slightly, offensively neither team has been that Good miami,
• 19:47
  Speaker 5: Nineteenth texas twenty. Second texas is a little bit better
• 19:50
  Speaker 5: on the, road but this does have kind of the
• 19:53
  Speaker 5: look of being a series where you might want to
• 19:56
  Speaker 5: be looking at unders because it is in a pitcher friendly.
• 19:59
  Speaker 5: Ballpark these teams are just teams that aren't that good,
• 20:02
  Speaker 5: offensively and they're better at pitching than they are on.
• 20:04
  Speaker 5: Offense Kumar rocker is pitching For texas. Year don't THINK
• 20:09
  Speaker 5: i would want to try to deal with an under
• 20:10
  Speaker 5: in this particular. Matchup rocker four point one seven E.
• 20:14
  Speaker 5: Rra his whip is pretty bad, though one point four to.
• 20:17
  Speaker 5: One that's not. Good HIS era on the road is
• 20:20
  Speaker 5: not very good four point. Five he's better at. Home
• 20:22
  Speaker 5: he's gotten worse in general though he's been bad like.
• 20:26
  Speaker 5: Recently his last two starts he did not make it
• 20:29
  Speaker 5: five innings in either of, them one on the, road
• 20:31
  Speaker 5: one at. Home this isn't very good stuff right. Now
• 20:34
  Speaker 5: he's been too hittable. Recently his walk number has been
• 20:37
  Speaker 5: a problem over the entire. Season his strikeout rates a
• 20:40
  Speaker 5: little bit low on the season two and his hit
• 20:42
  Speaker 5: rate on the season is actually. Fine BUT i don't
• 20:45
  Speaker 5: think he's trustworthy right. Now he's not really in good
• 20:48
  Speaker 5: form right, now tends to not be very good on the.
• 20:50
  Speaker 5: Road this matchup for him might be, okay, though Because
• 20:54
  Speaker 5: miami hasn't seen him, before only Him menez has ever faced,
• 20:57
  Speaker 5: him and he's zero for, one no, walks no, Strikeouts
• 21:01
  Speaker 5: So rocker might have a little bit of an edge,
• 21:02
  Speaker 5: there just that he's un just in that he's unfamiliar To.
• 21:07
  Speaker 5: Miami miami's going With Tyler, phillips which is kind of
• 21:11
  Speaker 5: a pseudo bullpen. Game phillips has a three point ONE,
• 21:15
  Speaker 5: era but a one point three to eight whip is
• 21:17
  Speaker 5: not very. Good he's been good at home, though point
• 21:20
  Speaker 5: eight three home E, ra but he's a converted. Reliever
• 21:23
  Speaker 5: he's mostly made relief appearances this. Year he's started a
• 21:26
  Speaker 5: few games since the end of last. Month last start
• 21:29
  Speaker 5: was really bad At. Philadelphia he just got completely jacked
• 21:33
  Speaker 5: up in that.
• 21:34
  Speaker 6: GAME i would not Trust phillips.
• 21:36
  Speaker 5: HERE i. DON'T i, MEAN i KNOW i Like miami's
• 21:39
  Speaker 5: bullpen well, enough BUT i just don't trust this pitching
• 21:42
  Speaker 5: set up. Here phillips has had twelve, strikeouts eight walks
• 21:46
  Speaker 5: this month and thirteen to two thirds innings on top
• 21:48
  Speaker 5: of allowing eleven runs and fifteen, hits all of those runs.
• 21:52
  Speaker 5: Earned that's not, great even though it was mostly that
• 21:55
  Speaker 5: one start Against philly that really blew him, up but
• 21:58
  Speaker 5: two starts prior to that was pretty. Bad Against Tampa
• 22:01
  Speaker 5: bay didn't make it five innings. There he's got an
• 22:04
  Speaker 5: okay hit rate and okay strikeout, rate and his walk
• 22:06
  Speaker 5: rate is very. High but you, KNOW i don't know
• 22:10
  Speaker 5: how deep he's gonna pitch into this, game SO i
• 22:12
  Speaker 5: have no idea he's gonna be going up. AGAINST i
• 22:16
  Speaker 5: always forget who we're even talking. About, Yeah, texas that's.
• 22:19
  Speaker 5: Right texas doesn't exactly have.
• 22:22
  Speaker 6: Great numbers against. Them they haven't really seen much of.
• 22:26
  Speaker 5: Him seven at bats literally the only hits that they
• 22:29
  Speaker 5: have against. Him the only guy that's reached base Is,
• 22:31
  Speaker 5: berger who is two for two often.
• 22:34
  Speaker 6: Two eighty six batting. Average you can figure that.
• 22:36
  Speaker 5: Out six sixty one ops, though so it's a low
• 22:39
  Speaker 5: ops against. Him one, strikeout no, walks but it's a
• 22:42
  Speaker 5: small sample. SIZE i don't know If phillips is gonna
• 22:44
  Speaker 5: be in the game that. Long this is not a
• 22:48
  Speaker 5: game where WHERE i would want to try to play an. Under.
• 22:50
  Speaker 5: Uh this game might be more of an over, game
• 22:53
  Speaker 5: to be. Honest even though the, series the, matchup you,
• 22:57
  Speaker 5: know just the these teams playing against each other has
• 23:00
  Speaker 5: the look of an under type of, Series but in this,
• 23:02
  Speaker 5: GAME i don't think. So fifty two, tickets seventy nine
• 23:06
  Speaker 5: percent of the cash on the over totals around eight
• 23:09
  Speaker 5: eight and a. HALF i think the over makes some sense,
• 23:12
  Speaker 5: here BUT i don't THINK i would want to risk that.
• 23:14
  Speaker 5: Either both pitchers could pitch okay here, again because it
• 23:18
  Speaker 5: does look like more of an underconducive matchup just in
• 23:21
  Speaker 5: which teams are involved here sixty percent of, tickets eighty
• 23:25
  Speaker 5: seven percent of the cash On miami at around minus
• 23:28
  Speaker 5: one thirty on the money. Line do with that info
• 23:30
  Speaker 5: what you. Want if you think Of miami bullpen game
• 23:33
  Speaker 5: is better Than rocker on The, road you might be.
• 23:36
  Speaker 5: RIGHT i, MEAN i think it's a difficult game to figure.
• 23:39
  Speaker 5: Out i'm not doing anything my, Children, yes the, Tadpoles,
• 23:46
  Speaker 5: yes thank, you, Sir.
• 23:48
  Speaker 6: Lady Red, sox what's?
• 23:49
  Speaker 5: Up thanks for hanging. Out i'm not thrilled about The
• 23:53
  Speaker 5: Red sox result. Yesterday, OBVIOUSLY i will talk about That
• 23:56
  Speaker 5: Red sox game whenever it comes up later in the.
• 24:00
  Speaker 5: Show where are? THEY i don't even know they're playing, today, Right,
• 24:02
  Speaker 5: yeah they're In. Colorado if they don't Beat, colorado, YEAH
• 24:07
  Speaker 5: i don't, know. MAN i, MEAN i think it's already
• 24:10
  Speaker 5: time to just to just put The Red sox out
• 24:13
  Speaker 5: to pasture if they don't Beat colorado in this, series,
• 24:16
  Speaker 5: THOUGH i don't know what to tell You philadelphia And.
• 24:19
  Speaker 5: Washington washington is returning, home but they were only on
• 24:23
  Speaker 5: the road for a single series In Tampa, bay SO
• 24:26
  Speaker 5: i don't really consider that to be a full road
• 24:29
  Speaker 5: trip return because you know, ME i like to fade
• 24:31
  Speaker 5: teams that are returning home from road. Trips, hint, hint
• 24:34
  Speaker 5: as far as what my plays are gonna be, TODAY
• 24:36
  Speaker 5: i don't really consider a single series to be a
• 24:39
  Speaker 5: full road trip return, though where you like get totally
• 24:42
  Speaker 5: distracted and have all this stuff built up that you
• 24:45
  Speaker 5: have to do when you get. Home, PLUS i don't
• 24:47
  Speaker 5: See washington Overlooking. Philadelphia, really this is a big divisional
• 24:50
  Speaker 5: series against one of the teams that you know is
• 24:53
  Speaker 5: one of the better teams in the. Division philadelphia has
• 24:55
  Speaker 5: been playing a lot better. Recently they just beat The.
• 24:58
  Speaker 6: Mets the last couple of.
• 24:59
  Speaker 5: Games decent situation For, philadelphia, though coming off a couple
• 25:04
  Speaker 5: of wins starting a road. Trip expect them to be
• 25:08
  Speaker 5: focused as well. Here but we have no idea who's
• 25:11
  Speaker 5: pitching For philadelphia. Here AND i dug into, it and
• 25:14
  Speaker 5: it looks like it should. Be lozardo's turning the, rotation
• 25:17
  Speaker 5: and he's good on the road, Too SO i have
• 25:19
  Speaker 5: no idea why it looks Like luzardo might not be pitching,
• 25:22
  Speaker 5: here or why they're taking a long time to.
• 25:24
  Speaker 6: DECIDE i have no clue if he's. SICK i have no.
• 25:27
  Speaker 5: Idea he's not listed as injured or, anything SO i
• 25:29
  Speaker 5: don't know what's going on with The. Phillies washington used
• 25:33
  Speaker 5: three relief pitchers, Yesterday philadelphia used. Four washington is the
• 25:38
  Speaker 5: worst bullpen though they're number twenty. Three philadelphia is number.
• 25:42
  Speaker 5: Eleven philadelphia does clearly have the better bullpen. Here neither excuse.
• 25:47
  Speaker 5: Me philadelphia's offense has not been good twenty, Fifth washington
• 25:50
  Speaker 5: has been good number. Five washington is a little bit
• 25:54
  Speaker 5: better on the road than they are at, home though on,
• 25:57
  Speaker 5: offense but they do have the better offense. Here washington
• 26:00
  Speaker 5: is going With Foster, griffin who continues to pitch well
• 26:03
  Speaker 5: this season surprisingly three point three TWO era one point
• 26:08
  Speaker 5: one point one. Whip he's only been slightly worse at,
• 26:11
  Speaker 5: home whereas a lot of Washington his pitchers have been
• 26:13
  Speaker 5: significantly worse at.
• 26:14
  Speaker 6: Home not really the case with.
• 26:15
  Speaker 5: Him three point five to five home he Ra he's
• 26:19
  Speaker 5: been really good this. Month he's allowed one, run and
• 26:21
  Speaker 5: each of his starts this month got at least five
• 26:24
  Speaker 5: innings in. All three faced some pretty weak offenses Though,
• 26:27
  Speaker 5: Arizona San, Francisco Kansas, city but fifteen to two strikeout walk,
• 26:32
  Speaker 5: ratio seventeen, innings fourteen hits. Allowed can't really complain about
• 26:36
  Speaker 5: any of those numbers. There his, numbers it Gets philadelphia
• 26:39
  Speaker 5: are actually, good but it's a small sample. Size eighteen at,
• 26:42
  Speaker 5: bats five, strikeouts no, walks one sixty seven average, allowed.
• 26:47
  Speaker 6: Five point fifty six.
• 26:48
  Speaker 5: Ops griffin might actually be okay, here, Man SO i
• 26:53
  Speaker 5: would NOT i actually THINK i would not want to
• 26:56
  Speaker 5: bank On philadelphia. HERE i, mean we can look At
• 26:58
  Speaker 5: luzardo briefly because it looks like it should be his
• 27:01
  Speaker 5: turn of the, rotation BUT i still don't know what's
• 27:03
  Speaker 5: going on. HERE A lozardo four point TWO, era one
• 27:07
  Speaker 5: point three to one whip this. Season his whip is
• 27:09
  Speaker 5: still kind of, high but he's been good on the
• 27:12
  Speaker 5: road one point five to.
• 27:13
  Speaker 6: Five Roady.
• 27:14
  Speaker 5: Ray he was getting unlucky early in the. Season, uh
• 27:18
  Speaker 5: just in that basically everybody he put on base was.
• 27:20
  Speaker 5: Scoring he's pitched better recently for the most, part although
• 27:24
  Speaker 5: his walk number is still a bit. High his hit
• 27:27
  Speaker 5: rate is slightly high as, well BUT i think that's
• 27:31
  Speaker 5: some of that IS i don't, know man like it
• 27:32
  Speaker 5: seems like he tips his pitches sometimes at, home which
• 27:36
  Speaker 5: is why he gets hit around at home a little.
• 27:37
  Speaker 5: Bit but his walk rate is actually not too bad right,
• 27:40
  Speaker 5: now and his strike out rate is, high SO i don't.
• 27:42
  Speaker 5: KNOW i just don't know If lozardo is actually, pitching
• 27:44
  Speaker 5: but just in case he, is he has decent numbers
• 27:48
  Speaker 5: Against washington two sixty two average, allowed seven eighteen, ops
• 27:52
  Speaker 5: sixty one at, bats sixteen to four strikeout walk. Ratio
• 27:56
  Speaker 5: But washington might be a way to look at this,
• 28:00
  Speaker 5: game especially If philadelphia is going with some sort of bullpen.
• 28:03
  Speaker 6: GAME i don't THINK i would want to just play it, blindly.
• 28:06
  Speaker 5: THOUGH i THINK i would wait to, see like If
• 28:08
  Speaker 5: philadelphia is gonna go with some sort of bullpen game
• 28:11
  Speaker 5: or a spot starter, here like if it's Not luzardo
• 28:14
  Speaker 5: or any of their other good.
• 28:15
  Speaker 6: Pitchers washington first FIVE i think is worth considering. Here
• 28:19
  Speaker 6: they are getting the money.
• 28:21
  Speaker 5: Sixty eight percent of the. Tickets I'm philly ninety one
• 28:23
  Speaker 5: percent of the cash On. Washington washington is actually favored
• 28:27
  Speaker 5: slightly at around minus one point, fifteen which kind of
• 28:30
  Speaker 5: tells you that it seems like Maybe lozardo was not
• 28:33
  Speaker 5: expected to start, here BECAUSE i would think that if he,
• 28:35
  Speaker 5: Was philadelphia probably should be. FAVORED i don't, know, man
• 28:39
  Speaker 5: Maybe griffin is getting that respect, Now washington maybe getting some.
• 28:42
  Speaker 5: RESPECT i still worry About washington at, home though they're
• 28:46
  Speaker 5: not a very good home team record, wise SO i don't.
• 28:49
  Speaker 5: Know but first, Five washington makes some. Sense if you
• 28:53
  Speaker 5: wait and you see That philadelphia is gonna be going
• 28:55
  Speaker 5: with some pitching disaster, here you know WHAT i, mean
• 28:59
  Speaker 5: Then washington first five makes, sense AND i would not
• 29:03
  Speaker 5: Include washington's bullpend speaking of pitching, disasters all, Right oh,
• 29:10
  Speaker 5: yes AND i forgot to Mention. Griffin, whoops AS i
• 29:15
  Speaker 5: close all these tabs THAT i don't mean to. Close griffin,
• 29:19
  Speaker 5: overall his, numbers by the, way low hit, rate a
• 29:23
  Speaker 5: pretty low walk rate, too and his strikeout rate is
• 29:25
  Speaker 5: higher than you would. Think So griffin has, actually like
• 29:28
  Speaker 5: his underlying metrics look pretty, good so HE'S i, think
• 29:32
  Speaker 5: kind of. Legitimate houston At, TORONTO i took one look
• 29:35
  Speaker 5: at this pitching, matchup and my mind was, like, yeah,
• 29:39
  Speaker 5: Under like this game looks like AN under to, me
• 29:42
  Speaker 5: but the numbers kind of worrying me a little. Bit.
• 29:44
  Speaker 5: Here toronto is returning home from the, road SO i
• 29:48
  Speaker 5: would not really want to jump On toronto, here even
• 29:51
  Speaker 5: though they have a rest advantage because they didn't play.
• 29:53
  Speaker 5: Yesterday that was the play THAT i gave out on
• 29:55
  Speaker 5: the first five. Under it got rained out yesterday and
• 29:59
  Speaker 5: that was going to be Don't, Cease SO i Thought
• 30:01
  Speaker 5: cease was gonna pitch, today but he's. Not As i'll
• 30:04
  Speaker 5: talk about in a. Minute But toronto is returning home
• 30:07
  Speaker 5: from the. Road they went To boston and The, Cobbs
• 30:10
  Speaker 5: SO i talk about that when a team has been
• 30:12
  Speaker 5: away for a week, plus they can get a little
• 30:15
  Speaker 5: bit distracted when they come back. Home they have to
• 30:17
  Speaker 5: get back to home. Life maybe a little bit of
• 30:20
  Speaker 5: a negative spot For toronto. There houston is starting a road,
• 30:23
  Speaker 5: Trip i'm pretty. Sure, yeah So houston in the better
• 30:26
  Speaker 5: situational spot, Here so that would have me leaning slightly
• 30:29
  Speaker 5: Towards houston for that.
• 30:30
  Speaker 6: Reason starting a road, trip.
• 30:32
  Speaker 5: Usually you're gonna be. Focused. Houston their bullpen has been pitching.
• 30:37
  Speaker 5: Better still a concern. Though to, Me houston did use
• 30:39
  Speaker 5: three relief pitchers. Yesterday toronto didn't use any because they were,
• 30:44
  Speaker 5: off of, course So toronto should have the bullpen advantage,
• 30:47
  Speaker 5: here at least in that they're. Rested they're fourteenth than bullpen.
• 30:51
  Speaker 5: Here houston is twenty. First But houston has been pitching
• 30:55
  Speaker 5: a lot better out of the bullpen, recently SO i
• 30:57
  Speaker 5: don't know how to gauge their bullpen right. NOW i
• 31:00
  Speaker 5: would say kind of consider them to be. Mediocre houston
• 31:03
  Speaker 5: is the better offense the ranked. Eleventh toronto is twenty.
• 31:07
  Speaker 5: Third houston's going With Hunter. Brown it's kind of an
• 31:11
  Speaker 5: interesting situation because you have a guy in his second
• 31:13
  Speaker 5: start back from injury going up against a guy who's
• 31:16
  Speaker 5: in his first start back from. Injury Hunter brown is
• 31:19
  Speaker 5: in his second start back from. Injury he's been good
• 31:22
  Speaker 5: when he's pitched this. Season he pitched early in the
• 31:24
  Speaker 5: season before he got. Hurt he's a good pitcher. Though
• 31:27
  Speaker 5: if you look at his numbers over the last couple of,
• 31:28
  Speaker 5: seasons he is. Legit he was An All star last
• 31:31
  Speaker 5: year one point one era one point zero four whip
• 31:35
  Speaker 5: really good stuff. There he has not pitched on the
• 31:38
  Speaker 5: road yet this season he's only made three STARTS i, think,
• 31:41
  Speaker 5: yeah and they've all been at. Home he looked good
• 31:44
  Speaker 5: though in his last, start that was that From bervaldez.
• 31:47
  Speaker 5: GAME i gave out the first five under in that
• 31:50
  Speaker 5: game and that was a. WINNER i think it was
• 31:51
  Speaker 5: one to one at the end of. Five brown held
• 31:54
  Speaker 5: up his end of the. Bargain he was fine in the.
• 31:56
  Speaker 5: Game he did walk too many guys. Though the walks
• 31:59
  Speaker 5: are a little bit of an issue with him right.
• 32:00
  Speaker 5: Now but his hit rate is. Low his strikeout rate
• 32:03
  Speaker 5: is really high and remain that way in that game,
• 32:06
  Speaker 5: Too so he's pitching basically how you would expect coming
• 32:09
  Speaker 5: back from. Injury so he looks like he's probably good
• 32:12
  Speaker 5: to go. Here his numbers Against toronto they're. Good one
• 32:17
  Speaker 5: eighty four batting average, allowed six eighty three, ops thirty
• 32:20
  Speaker 5: eight to, bats eleven, strikeouts four, walks so pretty much
• 32:24
  Speaker 5: across the.
• 32:24
  Speaker 6: Board pretty good numbers here For brown Against.
• 32:27
  Speaker 5: Toronto toronto will be bringing Back Shane bieber with the stash,
• 32:32
  Speaker 5: here hopefully he still has a. STASH i don't. Know
• 32:35
  Speaker 5: MAYBE i don't, know man am i, GAY i don't. Know,
• 32:38
  Speaker 5: uh three point five seven E ra for him one
• 32:40
  Speaker 5: point oh two whip last. Season he has not pitched
• 32:43
  Speaker 5: this season. Yet last season was his first season With
• 32:47
  Speaker 5: toronto after spending his entire career With.
• 32:50
  Speaker 6: Cleveland he's been really good throughout his.
• 32:53
  Speaker 5: CAREER i think he was An All star when he
• 32:54
  Speaker 5: was With cleveland once or. Twice but he's been, really
• 32:58
  Speaker 5: really injured. Recently he's only made nine starts since twenty twenty.
• 33:03
  Speaker 5: THREE i don't know what to make of that. Man
• 33:06
  Speaker 5: when he's, pitched he's been, good but he seems to
• 33:08
  Speaker 5: never stay. Healthy so that's kind of the issue with him.
• 33:11
  Speaker 5: Here but if they're saying he's good to, go then
• 33:13
  Speaker 5: he should be good to. GO i. DID i actually
• 33:15
  Speaker 5: didn't look at his minor league rehab, stuff just because
• 33:19
  Speaker 5: he is what he.
• 33:20
  Speaker 2: Is.
• 33:20
  Speaker 5: Man we've seen what he's done at the major league.
• 33:22
  Speaker 5: Level so if they're saying he's ready to, Go i'm
• 33:25
  Speaker 5: gonna trust them on. That bieber. Was let me, see
• 33:29
  Speaker 5: last year he was a little bit better at, Home
• 33:31
  Speaker 5: so do with that info what you. Want but if
• 33:34
  Speaker 5: you look at his matchup numbers against this specific offense
• 33:37
  Speaker 5: here AGAINST i always forget who we're talking. About, Yeah,
• 33:41
  Speaker 5: HOUSTON i don't know my mind just doesn't work correctly.
• 33:45
  Speaker 5: Anymore his numbers Against houston are. Terrible three eighty two
• 33:48
  Speaker 5: batting average, alove nine fifty nine ops fifty five career
• 33:52
  Speaker 5: at bats, here nine to three strike out walk, Ratio
• 33:55
  Speaker 5: So houston has done a lot of damage against. Him
• 33:58
  Speaker 5: SO i don't know IF i would Trust bieber, here
• 34:00
  Speaker 5: although you, KNOW i talk about like these veteran pictures
• 34:02
  Speaker 5: when they come back from, injury especially when they're used
• 34:05
  Speaker 5: to doing, it Because bieber's done it before in his.
• 34:08
  Speaker 5: Career USUALLY i like those pictures in their first game
• 34:11
  Speaker 5: back from injury because people tend to have like a
• 34:13
  Speaker 5: hesitation about, it, like, oh he's, hurt like we don't
• 34:17
  Speaker 5: know if he's gonna be, good but the guy's gone
• 34:19
  Speaker 5: through his. Rehab the team is saying he's ready to go,
• 34:22
  Speaker 5: Whatever SO i think that that's a, Positive LIKE i
• 34:26
  Speaker 5: like those, pictures but OBVIOUSLY i hate his matchup numbers.
• 34:29
  Speaker 5: HERE i Hate, toronto's uh, WELL i don't hate, it
• 34:32
  Speaker 5: BUT i don't like their Spot toronto returning home from the.
• 34:35
  Speaker 5: Road SO i think the way to play this game
• 34:37
  Speaker 5: is Probably houston first, five BECAUSE i Think toronto does
• 34:41
  Speaker 5: have a bullpen, advantage SO i wouldn't want to deal
• 34:43
  Speaker 5: with that.
• 34:43
  Speaker 6: Here houston is getting the.
• 34:45
  Speaker 5: Money he's. Six oh, no it's gonna Be Dylan. Cease,
• 34:47
  Speaker 5: now my, APOLOGIES i got to rehandicap. This Dylan cease
• 34:52
  Speaker 5: is going to. Start he was supposed to start. Yesterday
• 34:55
  Speaker 5: now the money is coming in On, houston, Though but
• 34:57
  Speaker 5: let's look At cease's matchup. Numbers first sixty six percent
• 35:00
  Speaker 5: of tickets On, toronto ninety percent of the cash On.
• 35:03
  Speaker 5: Houston So houston is getting the. MONEY i don't disagree
• 35:07
  Speaker 5: With houston. Here, really we'll look At cease's matchup numbers
• 35:10
  Speaker 5: is to, see But i'm still gonna slightly Lean houston,
• 35:13
  Speaker 5: here BUT i would do it first five, again just
• 35:16
  Speaker 5: because you. Don't you don't want to deal with their
• 35:19
  Speaker 5: bullpen against a arrested bullpen that is still better than.
• 35:21
  Speaker 5: Theirs SO i don't love that bullpen situation for. Them
• 35:26
  Speaker 5: i'm considering under in this, game, though. Man SO i
• 35:28
  Speaker 5: gotta look At cease's numbers, here fifty six percent of,
• 35:32
  Speaker 5: tickets ninety one percent of the cash on the. Over
• 35:34
  Speaker 5: but some of that mighty money might have come in
• 35:36
  Speaker 5: when it was supposed to Be bieber.
• 35:38
  Speaker 6: Starting i'm not.
• 35:38
  Speaker 5: Sure total is definitely low seven to seven and a half,
• 35:42
  Speaker 5: Here so the odds makers are telling you they're expecting
• 35:45
  Speaker 5: a pitching duel. Here and that's WHAT i thought WHEN
• 35:48
  Speaker 5: i saw the pitching matchup Between brown And. Bieber that's
• 35:51
  Speaker 5: WHAT i thought under UNTIL i looked At bieber's matchup. Numbers,
• 35:54
  Speaker 5: Uh bieber is probably gonna pitch, tomorrow by the, way
• 35:57
  Speaker 5: but let's look At, cease because he is going to.
• 35:59
  Speaker 5: Pitch it looks like NOW i would keep an eye
• 36:02
  Speaker 5: on this, though to see which pitcher is actually gonna
• 36:04
  Speaker 5: pitch two point seven to ONE era one point one
• 36:07
  Speaker 5: to nine whipth For. Cease he's not as good on
• 36:10
  Speaker 5: the road three point three four ROAD. Era that's still pretty, good,
• 36:13
  Speaker 5: though AND i considered that as part of my. Handicap,
• 36:15
  Speaker 5: Yesterday cease was injured for a couple of weeks and
• 36:18
  Speaker 5: came back pitched really well Against. Philadelphia was not quite
• 36:22
  Speaker 5: as good against The Red sox because he walked too many,
• 36:25
  Speaker 5: guys but he did hold them scoreless in five. Innings
• 36:28
  Speaker 5: cease really really high strikeout, rate low hit, rate and
• 36:32
  Speaker 5: his walk rate is too, high but he overcomes that
• 36:35
  Speaker 5: by pitching better in the other.
• 36:36
  Speaker 6: Departments let's look At. Cease, Oh cease is at.
• 36:40
  Speaker 5: Home now right, now my, Mistake cease is in the
• 36:42
  Speaker 5: better of his home road splits here two point two
• 36:45
  Speaker 5: to one home, Ye, Ray so a lot of things
• 36:48
  Speaker 5: kind of making this look like an under, Here, Man
• 36:50
  Speaker 5: cease good numbers against The astros two and ninety three
• 36:54
  Speaker 5: at bats two four average, allowed five ninety six. Obs
• 36:57
  Speaker 5: the only bad number here is the twelve walks twenty six.
• 37:01
  Speaker 5: STRIKEOUTS i THINK i want to do, it, man given
• 37:06
  Speaker 5: That cees has the better matchup numbers. Here let me
• 37:09
  Speaker 5: take a look at what's going on with The Action
• 37:12
  Speaker 5: network stats on. This BUT i think we don't really
• 37:14
  Speaker 5: know what to think yet they're they're indicating on the
• 37:17
  Speaker 5: under here. TOO i, MEAN i think we don't really
• 37:19
  Speaker 5: know what to make in the numbers because it looked
• 37:21
  Speaker 5: like it was gonna be bb bur but now it.
• 37:23
  Speaker 5: Isn't let's go under in this? Game should we go
• 37:28
  Speaker 5: full game on THIS mm first in first five innings
• 37:33
  Speaker 5: is three and a. HALF i don't love the three
• 37:34
  Speaker 5: and a. Half maybe the starting pitchers might be able
• 37:37
  Speaker 5: to get us deep enough into this game that that can.
• 37:39
  Speaker 5: Help with the full. Game we have one rested bullpen In.
• 37:42
  Speaker 5: Toronto houston's bullpen's been a little bit better. Recently you
• 37:47
  Speaker 5: can get under seven and a half right now at
• 37:49
  Speaker 5: minus won twenty at multiple different.
• 37:51
  Speaker 6: Outlets, yeah let's do.
• 37:53
  Speaker 5: It specify bull starters must, start, although of course WHEN
• 37:57
  Speaker 5: i don't specify otherwise that is you should do, anyway,
• 38:01
  Speaker 5: Though so we'll have three baseball, players say this is
• 38:08
  Speaker 5: gonna be the first. One this Is, Houston toronto under
• 38:12
  Speaker 5: seven and a half at minus one, twenty and again specify.
• 38:16
  Speaker 6: That Specify brown And cease must start.
• 38:19
  Speaker 5: Here that's WHAT i would, do because If toronto suddenly
• 38:22
  Speaker 5: makes that switch To, bieber THEN i would stay off the.
• 38:26
  Speaker 5: GAME i would still agree with the under if it Was,
• 38:28
  Speaker 5: bieber BUT i would stay. AWAY i would stay off
• 38:31
  Speaker 5: of the game because of his matchup. Numbers but if
• 38:33
  Speaker 5: it Is, yeah if you make the, bet just make
• 38:36
  Speaker 5: sure you. Specify make sure you do it With brown
• 38:39
  Speaker 5: Versus cease as the, starter and specify it that way
• 38:42
  Speaker 5: and keep an eye on it to see who's really
• 38:44
  Speaker 5: gonna start. Here but if you make that play and
• 38:46
  Speaker 5: then they switch, pitchers that it'll be a no.
• 38:48
  Speaker 6: Play so that's what we'll.
• 38:50
  Speaker 5: Do Houston toronto under all, right let's see we've got
• 38:55
  Speaker 5: more comments, Here.
• 38:57
  Speaker 6: Thomas what's?
• 38:58
  Speaker 5: Up? Man Are argentina and Austri what do you mean
• 39:01
  Speaker 5: box office? Contest you think a lot of people are
• 39:05
  Speaker 5: gonna watch that match because OF messi and. WHATEVER i
• 39:07
  Speaker 5: don't know much About austria's. Team argentina is obviously a
• 39:11
  Speaker 5: decent sized favorite in that, match, Though Zach, wsop thanks
• 39:14
  Speaker 5: for hanging. OUT i already talked about Your royals AND
• 39:17
  Speaker 5: i don't like their chances in that game Against Drew
• 39:21
  Speaker 5: RASMUSSEN waka also with not good matchup numbers in that.
• 39:24
  Speaker 5: One all, Right Cubs mets this is going to be
• 39:27
  Speaker 5: a play for. Me the book that starts with AN
• 39:32
  Speaker 5: ms still As bieber as the. Starter, YEAH i would shop.
• 39:36
  Speaker 5: Around this is why you need multiple. Outlets, man it's
• 39:38
  Speaker 5: possible they haven't updated, it but LIKE i trust this
• 39:42
  Speaker 5: board pretty, much but we'll. See LIKE i don't, know,
• 39:45
  Speaker 5: man if you wait a little bit until the books
• 39:49
  Speaker 5: update and, whatever or look at other books to see
• 39:51
  Speaker 5: what they, have eventually you'll see If cees is definitely.
• 39:55
  Speaker 5: Pitching eventually you'll see, it and you'll probably be able
• 39:58
  Speaker 5: to find a seven and a half on that. HOPE
• 40:00
  Speaker 5: i would pay up to about minus one twenty five
• 40:03
  Speaker 5: to get that hook. There all, right this next play
• 40:06
  Speaker 5: is the best, Bet and this is the one Where
• 40:08
  Speaker 5: i'm going against the matchup numbers a little bit, here
• 40:10
  Speaker 5: BUT i feel like this has to be a play
• 40:12
  Speaker 5: on The Chicago cubs against, WHO i forget. Who we're
• 40:16
  Speaker 5: fading The.
• 40:17
  Speaker 6: Mets, yeah The.
• 40:17
  Speaker 5: METS i, mean on the, surface this starting pitching matchup
• 40:20
  Speaker 5: looks like it clearly favors The cubs, here although when
• 40:23
  Speaker 5: you look at the matchup, NUMBERS i think it still.
• 40:27
  Speaker 5: Does but the matchup numbers make it look a little bit.
• 40:29
  Speaker 5: Worse But i'm still gonna do it here based on
• 40:32
  Speaker 5: the totality of the.
• 40:33
  Speaker 6: Circumstances The mets are returning home from the.
• 40:36
  Speaker 5: Road they went To cincinnati And, philadelphia AND i know
• 40:38
  Speaker 5: they're only traveling back From philly To New york. HERE
• 40:41
  Speaker 5: i know that's not a big travel leg, here but
• 40:44
  Speaker 5: they've still been away.
• 40:45
  Speaker 6: For a, week SO i don't like.
• 40:47
  Speaker 5: It the fact that The mets are a bad team
• 40:49
  Speaker 5: and the returning home from the, ROAD i don't like.
• 40:52
  Speaker 5: It SO i think that's a fade. Spot the return home,
• 40:54
  Speaker 5: SPOT i think you can get. Distracted ALTHOUGH i know
• 40:56
  Speaker 5: it's The. Cubs you don't usually overlook The. CUBS i get.
• 40:59
  Speaker 5: It and The cubs have been a little bit worse
• 41:03
  Speaker 5: on the. ROAD i understand that. Too but The cubs
• 41:05
  Speaker 5: have a rest advantage and a situational advantage because they're
• 41:08
  Speaker 5: starting a road, trip so usually you're gonna be focused
• 41:11
  Speaker 5: when you start a road. Trip but they also didn't
• 41:13
  Speaker 5: play yesterday because they got rained, Out SO i think
• 41:15
  Speaker 5: that's gonna help, them and it'll give them a little
• 41:18
  Speaker 5: bit of a bullpen edge. Here perhaps both bullpens are,
• 41:21
  Speaker 5: CLOSE i would, say, generally but The cubs rested, yesterday
• 41:24
  Speaker 5: so that should help them a little. Bit The mets
• 41:26
  Speaker 5: did use three relief pitchers. Yesterday mets are a good,
• 41:30
  Speaker 5: bullpen but The cubs are also pretty. Good mets number
• 41:33
  Speaker 5: four and Bullpen cubs number. Ten their era is a
• 41:36
  Speaker 5: little bit, IFFY i, know because they haven't been as good.
• 41:38
  Speaker 6: Recently but we're getting the rested bullpen.
• 41:41
  Speaker 5: Here that plus the, SITUATION i mean that basically just
• 41:44
  Speaker 5: has me going full game on.
• 41:45
  Speaker 6: This we're going full game with these.
• 41:47
  Speaker 5: Things.
• 41:47
  Speaker 6: Today cubs have the better offense by.
• 41:50
  Speaker 5: Far they're tied in six With Atlanta mets are number
• 41:54
  Speaker 5: twenty nine out of, thirty so The cubs give you
• 41:57
  Speaker 5: the much better offense. Here but we're also backing To
• 42:00
  Speaker 5: imanaga in this battle Of asian pitchers here Emon, naga
• 42:05
  Speaker 5: LIKE i said, YESTERDAY i know his e ray doesn't
• 42:07
  Speaker 5: look that good four point two SIX era and some
• 42:10
  Speaker 5: of the professional guys that are, like, Well emanaga's lost
• 42:13
  Speaker 5: it because guys have finally figured him out after he's
• 42:16
  Speaker 5: been in the majors for two. Seasons i'm not convinced
• 42:20
  Speaker 5: because he's got a good whip still one point oh six,
• 42:23
  Speaker 5: whips so his underlying metrics still tell you he's not that.
• 42:26
  Speaker 5: Bad AND i wanted to play the under in his
• 42:28
  Speaker 5: game yesterday under first. Five BUT i think this might
• 42:31
  Speaker 5: be a little bit better because he's better on the
• 42:33
  Speaker 5: road three point four to eight Roady, Ray so we
• 42:36
  Speaker 5: get him on the road. Here he's pitched well in
• 42:38
  Speaker 5: his last two, starts but they're both Against, colorado so
• 42:43
  Speaker 5: do with that info what you. Want Though colorado was
• 42:45
  Speaker 5: hot offensively recently and one of those was in course.
• 42:48
  Speaker 5: Field if you look at his bad uh starts that
• 42:52
  Speaker 5: he had prior to, that most of them were not that.
• 42:54
  Speaker 6: Bad except for the one Against.
• 42:55
  Speaker 5: Milwaukee the other ones he still had good strikeout walk
• 42:58
  Speaker 5: numbers for the most, part and basically everybody he put
• 43:01
  Speaker 5: on base scored in those games Against, Houston Saint, Louis,
• 43:04
  Speaker 5: atlanta or seriously Not, atlanta The, A's SO i think
• 43:08
  Speaker 5: he got. UNLUCKY i think he's still a pretty good.
• 43:10
  Speaker 5: Pitcher he's got a decent strikeout, rate low hit, rate
• 43:13
  Speaker 5: pretty low walk. Rate his home run rate is too,
• 43:16
  Speaker 5: high but that could be a little. Fluky even though
• 43:19
  Speaker 5: he is a fly ball, PITCHER i might be a
• 43:22
  Speaker 5: little bit less concern with that in a road game
• 43:25
  Speaker 5: at The. Mets two, plus The mets not a good,
• 43:27
  Speaker 5: offense So i'm a.
• 43:29
  Speaker 6: Little bit less concerned by.
• 43:30
  Speaker 5: That, however believe it or, not he doesn't have great
• 43:33
  Speaker 5: numbers against The, mets But i'm still going to back him,
• 43:35
  Speaker 5: here even though two thirty eight average against them is.
• 43:38
  Speaker 5: Good so he's held him to a pretty low. Average
• 43:41
  Speaker 5: eight to twenty eight ohps is a little bit. High
• 43:43
  Speaker 5: but that's kind of Why i'm still going to back him,
• 43:45
  Speaker 5: here because.
• 43:46
  Speaker 6: It seems a little fluky to. ME i, Know i'm
• 43:49
  Speaker 6: saying all these home runs are.
• 43:51
  Speaker 5: Fluky alvarez And baddie appropriate name for a.
• 43:56
  Speaker 6: Bat Or Brett.
• 43:56
  Speaker 5: Baddie they both have a home run off, him but
• 43:59
  Speaker 5: we're only looking at a twenty one at bat sample size.
• 44:02
  Speaker 5: Year some of the better hitters have not really done
• 44:04
  Speaker 5: well against. Him three two strike up walk ratio isn't exactly,
• 44:08
  Speaker 5: good but they really have not had that many hits off.
• 44:11
  Speaker 5: Him SO i still Think Ima naga should pitch well.
• 44:15
  Speaker 5: Here he looks like he's coming back into. Form he's
• 44:17
  Speaker 5: clearly the better pitcher Over Coodei senga as we have
• 44:21
  Speaker 5: The Japanese civil war going on.
• 44:23
  Speaker 6: Here LIKE i, Said senga is not.
• 44:26
  Speaker 2: Good.
• 44:26
  Speaker 5: Dude a ninety ray one point eight to eight. Whip
• 44:29
  Speaker 5: he has an eighteen e array at. HOME i mean
• 44:32
  Speaker 5: that is really. Bad needless to, say he's been injured,
• 44:36
  Speaker 5: THOUGH i mean he. Was he got injured in Late,
• 44:38
  Speaker 5: april but he was pitching terribly his last four starts
• 44:42
  Speaker 5: now he failed to make it five innings in any of,
• 44:44
  Speaker 5: them including his return from, injury where he was awful
• 44:47
  Speaker 5: again At. Cincinnati he only gave up two, hits but
• 44:51
  Speaker 5: he walked four. Guys this just isn't. Good he has
• 44:55
  Speaker 5: a really high walk rate on the season high hit rate.
• 44:58
  Speaker 5: Too his strike cut rates, good but all all of
• 45:00
  Speaker 5: his other numbers.
• 45:01
  Speaker 6: Suck and he's also a fly ball.
• 45:03
  Speaker 5: Pitcher SO i think it's pretty Clear imanaga is the
• 45:06
  Speaker 5: way steadier pitcher Here.
• 45:09
  Speaker 6: Senga against The, cubs.
• 45:12
  Speaker 5: His numbers are.
• 45:13
  Speaker 6: Okay he does have the better matchup.
• 45:15
  Speaker 5: NUMBERS i admit that in a bigger sample here forty
• 45:17
  Speaker 5: one at bats to forty four, average seven to forty four.
• 45:20
  Speaker 5: Ohps that's all just really. Average THOUGH i think that
• 45:24
  Speaker 5: means he has a slight advantage against their. Offense but
• 45:27
  Speaker 5: the way he's pitching right, NOW i don't really see, it,
• 45:29
  Speaker 5: Man and he doesn't have good walk numbers against the
• 45:32
  Speaker 5: fourteen strikeout seven, walks so the walks continue to be
• 45:36
  Speaker 5: a problem for. Him and you can't keep walking guys
• 45:38
  Speaker 5: like that and getting away with. It so everything about this, game,
• 45:42
  Speaker 5: man the, situation plus the starting pitching, MATCHUP i think
• 45:45
  Speaker 5: we have to do, it.
• 45:46
  Speaker 6: Even though the money looks like it's not agreeing with.
• 45:48
  Speaker 5: Me with sixty nine percent of the tickets on The
• 45:50
  Speaker 5: cubs eighty percent of the cash on The. Mets, nope
• 45:54
  Speaker 5: we're gonna fade The mets here minus one. TEN i
• 45:57
  Speaker 5: found out there at The Jim book with a be
• 46:00
  Speaker 5: although you're mostly looking at minus one fifteen up towards
• 46:03
  Speaker 5: minus one. Twenty but that price, RANGE i think is.
• 46:06
  Speaker 5: FINE i know you're paying a little bit for it
• 46:08
  Speaker 5: because it is The cubs against The, mets so, yeah
• 46:11
  Speaker 5: you gotta pay a little bit of a price for
• 46:13
  Speaker 5: it on the. Road BUT i think they should get
• 46:15
  Speaker 5: the job done here given all the things THAT i
• 46:18
  Speaker 5: just said WHEN i broke down that, Game cubs at
• 46:20
  Speaker 5: a small money line price is gonna be the way
• 46:23
  Speaker 5: to go. There all, Right, kyle what's? Up thanks for hanging.
• 46:26
  Speaker 5: Out all? Right next game Is milwaukee And. Cincinnati this is.
• 46:33
  Speaker 5: Interesting cincinnati just beat The yankees. Twice they're returning home
• 46:37
  Speaker 5: From New, york although it was only a single series road,
• 46:40
  Speaker 5: trip but it's still could be a letdown spot even
• 46:44
  Speaker 5: if they haven't been away for that. Long you just
• 46:46
  Speaker 5: want a series in The, bronx, man so you're probably
• 46:49
  Speaker 5: feeling pretty good about yourselves after. That, also The reds
• 46:52
  Speaker 5: are not gonna Have Chase burns pitching today because he pitched,
• 46:55
  Speaker 5: yesterday so this could be a letdown. Spot, Plus cincinnati
• 46:59
  Speaker 5: is not going to have a good pitcher on The
• 47:00
  Speaker 5: mountain this, time so not great For cincinnati. Here milwaukee
• 47:05
  Speaker 5: did just beat At, lanaus SO i guess that could
• 47:07
  Speaker 5: be a little bit of a let down off of that,
• 47:09
  Speaker 5: Win but they lost the, series and that win yesterday
• 47:12
  Speaker 5: ended a three game losing, streak so to, me that
• 47:15
  Speaker 5: looks more like they have momentum coming into this. One
• 47:17
  Speaker 5: they are traveling From atlanta To, cincinnati so travel spot
• 47:22
  Speaker 5: kind of similar for both, teams But cincinnati is technically
• 47:25
  Speaker 5: in a return home. Spot milwaukee also will be going
• 47:28
  Speaker 5: with another guy coming back from injury, here so we'll
• 47:31
  Speaker 5: see how that goes for. Them milwaukee only used one
• 47:35
  Speaker 5: relief pitcher. Yesterday their bullpen is way better Than. Cincinnati's
• 47:39
  Speaker 5: cincinnati who's. Three milwaukee has the twelfth rank bullpen right,
• 47:43
  Speaker 5: now BUT i think they're better than.
• 47:44
  Speaker 6: That cincinnati is twenty nine out of.
• 47:46
  Speaker 5: Thirty they are one of the worst handful of bullpens,
• 47:50
  Speaker 5: Offensively milwaukee number nine and The reds are where are?
• 47:55
  Speaker 5: They number twenty? One So milwaukee is the better offense.
• 47:58
  Speaker 5: Too milwaukee he kind of has an edge everywhere. Here.
• 48:02
  Speaker 5: MAN i think, situation, bullpen, hitting and starting pitching all
• 48:07
  Speaker 5: going To milwaukee. Here milwaukee's going With brandon Wood. Druff
• 48:10
  Speaker 5: he's coming back from the injured list again and. AGAIN
• 48:14
  Speaker 5: i like when these veteran pitchers like Wood. Druff he
• 48:16
  Speaker 5: is definitely a, Veteran he's had a really good. Career
• 48:19
  Speaker 5: when they come back from, injury a lot of times
• 48:22
  Speaker 5: they're pumped, up they're ready to, go they pitch, well
• 48:24
  Speaker 5: they've gone through the. Rehab you, KNOW i think that
• 48:27
  Speaker 5: might be the case with. Him he's come back from
• 48:29
  Speaker 5: injury once. Before but he might be getting a little
• 48:32
  Speaker 5: bit injury prone man because he's only made twenty three
• 48:34
  Speaker 5: starts since twenty twenty. Two he went down in twenty twenty,
• 48:39
  Speaker 5: three missed an entire, season came back last year and
• 48:42
  Speaker 5: got hurt. Again you, know he pitched the start of
• 48:46
  Speaker 5: this year, though and he was pitching well before he went.
• 48:48
  Speaker 5: Down three point SIX era one point zero three. Whip
• 48:51
  Speaker 5: but basically throughout his career when he has been able to,
• 48:54
  Speaker 5: pitch he's been. Good so that is kind of WHAT
• 48:56
  Speaker 5: i expect. Here he's not as good on the road,
• 48:59
  Speaker 5: though four point two Six ROADY, ira and he is
• 49:02
  Speaker 5: pitching At, cincinnati which is more of a hitter friendly.
• 49:04
  Speaker 5: Ballpark his numbers Against, cincinnati though they don't really have
• 49:08
  Speaker 5: much experience against. Him they have forty three at bats
• 49:11
  Speaker 5: only across five hitters Because suarez has actually faced him
• 49:16
  Speaker 5: a lot for some, reason even Though suarez was in
• 49:19
  Speaker 5: The American, league AND i Think woodroff has been On
• 49:21
  Speaker 5: milwaukee's whole. Career he's got fifteen strikeouts three walks against.
• 49:26
  Speaker 5: Them those are really strong. Numbers they're TWO pho nine
• 49:29
  Speaker 5: batting average, allowed six'. Ten OPS so i Do think
• 49:33
  Speaker 5: woodroff is going to do. Well here that would be
• 49:35
  Speaker 5: my gauge. On This brady singer is Pitching. For cincinnati
• 49:39
  Speaker 5: he is not good five point THREE, two era one
• 49:42
  Speaker 5: point six to, one whip really. Bad whip he is
• 49:45
  Speaker 5: better at, home though four point Zero three homie ra
• 49:48
  Speaker 5: so you want to fade him when he's on the road.
• 49:51
  Speaker 5: More so he pitched well in his last two starts
• 49:53
  Speaker 5: for the, most part but it Was Against san diego And.
• 49:55
  Speaker 5: The mets those are much worse offenses than Than a,
• 50:00
  Speaker 5: Milwaukee IS so i don't know how MUCH weight i
• 50:02
  Speaker 5: would put Into That, singer overall high, hit rate of
• 50:06
  Speaker 5: high walk, rate too and kind of a low, strikeout
• 50:08
  Speaker 5: rate so there's not a lot to Like about, singer
• 50:11
  Speaker 5: here even though he is better at Home. Against milwaukee mediocre,
• 50:15
  Speaker 5: numbers here one hundred and four, at bats so they've
• 50:17
  Speaker 5: seen a lot. Of them to sixty, nine average seven thirty.
• 50:21
  Speaker 5: One ohps not as bad as you. Would think it's
• 50:23
  Speaker 5: a little bit below that seven to fifty threshold twenty
• 50:26
  Speaker 5: six to nine strike up. WALK ratio i Think still
• 50:30
  Speaker 5: milwaukee is the right. Side here you're paying a little
• 50:33
  Speaker 5: bit of a price, for them though you're laying like
• 50:35
  Speaker 5: minus one fifty minus one sixty here on. The, road
• 50:39
  Speaker 5: yeah it's in the minus one fifty. RANGE here a
• 50:41
  Speaker 5: couple of the books a. Bit cheaper they're very Public.
• 50:44
  Speaker 5: THOUGH milwaukee i gotta hide the FAQs, here again this
• 50:48
  Speaker 5: website has issues when. It REFRESHES but i like their
• 50:51
  Speaker 5: percentages that they give you here.
• 50:53
  Speaker 6: Seventy eight percent of the tickets and Cash.
• 50:55
  Speaker 5: On. Milwaukee here the money is also backing the over
• 50:58
  Speaker 5: for whatever that's worth at nine and. A HALF but
• 51:00
  Speaker 5: I think i'm focusing on a lot of. SIDES today
• 51:02
  Speaker 5: I think milwaukee on the, you know like making a
• 51:06
  Speaker 5: minus one run Line with milwaukee makes some sense to.
• 51:09
  Speaker 5: Me here then you get all nine innings of at bats.
• 51:13
  Speaker 5: With them if you, do that if you go with
• 51:14
  Speaker 5: a run, LINE here i think that's the way to
• 51:16
  Speaker 5: get that. PRICE down i Duly, in milwaukee but they
• 51:19
  Speaker 5: are a, public SIDE so i have my concerns. With.
• 51:21
  Speaker 5: It still next game up is going to be my,
• 51:24
  Speaker 5: last play which is another. Situational PLAY plus i think
• 51:28
  Speaker 5: we get the better starter on the. Mound HERE did
• 51:31
  Speaker 5: i FEEL like i missed something in THAT last I
• 51:34
  Speaker 5: mean I think i Just missed woodroff just going over his,
• 51:37
  Speaker 5: OVERALL numbers i get too autistic, about It but woodroff
• 51:40
  Speaker 5: when he was pitching earlier. This year he hasn't Pitched,
• 51:43
  Speaker 5: since april by, the Way but woodroff did have a low,
• 51:46
  Speaker 5: hit rate low, walk rate and his strikeout rate, Was
• 51:48
  Speaker 5: okay so do with that what.
• 51:50
  Speaker 6: You WANT but i think that's Gonna boaster.
• 51:51
  Speaker 5: Milwaukee's, rotation man if you you got a Rotation, With
• 51:54
  Speaker 5: Mizzierowski harrison woodroff as your top, three pitchers and who
• 51:59
  Speaker 5: else did? THEY have, i mean this. IS yeah i
• 52:02
  Speaker 5: mean they Don't Need. FREDDY peralta i guess that was
• 52:04
  Speaker 5: why they. Traded him they Do With. Logan henderson he's
• 52:08
  Speaker 5: actually good when, he's healthy but he's not, right now,
• 52:10
  Speaker 5: but still this is a dangerous starting pitching Rotation that. Milwaukee,
• 52:14
  Speaker 5: has anyway our next game up will be a. Play
• 52:17
  Speaker 5: here we're gonna Go with cleveland on the money, line
• 52:26
  Speaker 5: HERE and I know cleveland doesn't, HIT well, i know
• 52:29
  Speaker 5: but we're gonna Fade The Chicago white. Sox Here white
• 52:32
  Speaker 5: sox have started to regress, a, bit MAN as i kind.
• 52:36
  Speaker 5: OF expected, I mean, i Know The white sox were
• 52:38
  Speaker 5: the talk of. The league, you know they're definitely better
• 52:41
  Speaker 5: than they were the last couple, of seasons obviously because
• 52:43
  Speaker 5: they were. Historically bad they're a mediocre, team, though man
• 52:47
  Speaker 5: and there's still not a good, pitching TEAM so i
• 52:49
  Speaker 5: think that can Help this cleveland team that is now
• 52:52
  Speaker 5: hanging on to. FIRST place, I mean i do think
• 52:55
  Speaker 5: both teams will show up for, this though because it
• 52:57
  Speaker 5: is a divisional matchup between the top two teams in
• 53:00
  Speaker 5: this division here right Now The. Al central But The
• 53:03
  Speaker 5: white sox are returning home from. The, road man they
• 53:05
  Speaker 5: went To the Yankees. IN detroit, i know the last
• 53:08
  Speaker 5: leg of that trip is familiar to them because they're
• 53:10
  Speaker 5: staying in, the division staying in. The area but whatever
• 53:15
  Speaker 5: return home spot is a return home, spot STILL so
• 53:18
  Speaker 5: i think it's a negative For The white sox that they're.
• 53:20
  Speaker 5: Returning home the home distractions are still, a factor And The,
• 53:25
  Speaker 5: WHITE sox i know a lot of people will expect
• 53:28
  Speaker 5: them to, bounce, back, like oh they had a bad,
• 53:30
  Speaker 5: road trip they got Swept. By DETROIT so i think
• 53:32
  Speaker 5: the general public consensus is this is a team that
• 53:35
  Speaker 5: is good. At hitting the public is Gonna like Chicago
• 53:38
  Speaker 5: over cleveland because their offense is. Way better they're Gonna
• 53:41
  Speaker 5: expect chicago to bounce back now that they're.
• 53:43
  Speaker 6: At home but that is NOT what i want to.
• 53:44
  Speaker 5: Do here i'm gonna fade that, sentiment here EVEN though
• 53:48
  Speaker 5: i Know The white sox are really good. At home
• 53:50
  Speaker 5: cleveland has actually been okay on. The road cleveland is
• 53:53
  Speaker 5: actually above five hundred on, the road which is not.
• 53:55
  Speaker 5: Too bad cleveland is coming In, from houston, and yeah
• 53:59
  Speaker 5: they're in the middle of a long road. Trip here
• 54:01
  Speaker 5: but obviously you're gonna get focus out of them here
• 54:04
  Speaker 5: Against The white SOX because I think cleveland, is, like
• 54:06
  Speaker 5: yeah well we just overtook them in. The division we
• 54:09
  Speaker 5: got to keep. Winning here And also i'm, Gonna like
• 54:11
  Speaker 5: i'm gonna talk about it in. A MINUTE but i
• 54:13
  Speaker 5: like the. STARTING pitching i like the pitching in general
• 54:16
  Speaker 5: To favor. Cleveland here cleveland only these two relief, pitchers
• 54:19
  Speaker 5: yesterday although they Did use GADDAS so i think they've
• 54:21
  Speaker 5: been using as.
• 54:22
  Speaker 6: Their closer but they have the better.
• 54:24
  Speaker 5: Bullpen Here The white sox use four or five guys
• 54:27
  Speaker 5: out of the. Bullpen yesterday oh My Pal, jordan hicks
• 54:31
  Speaker 5: who was the only bad part Of the, DEVERS trade
• 54:33
  Speaker 5: i didn't. EVEN realize I think i, did realize actually
• 54:36
  Speaker 5: he's On The, white sox, but whatever After The red
• 54:39
  Speaker 5: sox had traded. For, Him anyway, bullpen, wise Yeah The
• 54:44
  Speaker 5: white sox.
• 54:44
  Speaker 6: Not great.
• 54:45
  Speaker 5: They're nineteenth cleveland has the. Better bullpen they're, ranked thirteenth
• 54:49
  Speaker 5: but their era is like a half. Run BETTER so
• 54:52
  Speaker 5: i think you're getting the better Bullpen with. Cleveland here
• 54:55
  Speaker 5: you're not getting the, BETTER offense, i know But The
• 54:57
  Speaker 5: white sox have fallen off a little. Bit offensively they're. At.
• 54:59
  Speaker 5: THIRTEEN cleveland i know they're bad at. TWENTY eighth i
• 55:02
  Speaker 5: know they're dealing with injuries here in. THEIR offense i,
• 55:05
  Speaker 5: get THAT but i think they could do enough to
• 55:08
  Speaker 5: get us this. Win Here gavin williams is Pitching. For
• 55:11
  Speaker 5: cleveland he's one of their best starters three point EIGHT
• 55:14
  Speaker 5: three era one point one to three whip good. STUFF
• 55:17
  Speaker 5: here i know he's not as good on the road
• 55:19
  Speaker 5: four point nine TO. Four era that does concern me
• 55:21
  Speaker 5: a little bit that we're going against his home.
• 55:24
  Speaker 6: Road splits he was not good in his last road Start.
• 55:27
  Speaker 5: AGAINST milwaukee i, get THAT but i think he's actually
• 55:31
  Speaker 5: stepping down in class here from Facing the yankees Twice.
• 55:34
  Speaker 5: AND milwaukee i Think The white sox are more of a,
• 55:36
  Speaker 5: mediocre OFFENSE so i think he gets a little bit
• 55:39
  Speaker 5: of a better draw than he did in his last.
• 55:41
  Speaker 5: Couple outings his command numbers has still been fine, this
• 55:45
  Speaker 5: month so he's beginning a little. Bit unlucky he's a
• 55:48
  Speaker 5: bit he's been allowing, home runs so he's got to
• 55:50
  Speaker 5: try to get that under control a. Little bit he
• 55:52
  Speaker 5: has allowed too many home runs. This season but he's
• 55:56
  Speaker 5: not really a fly, ball PITCHER so i don't know
• 55:58
  Speaker 5: what the deal is.
• 55:59
  Speaker 6: With that he's got a low, hit rate his walk
• 56:01
  Speaker 6: rate is not.
• 56:03
  Speaker 5: Too bad like usually the walks are the problem, with
• 56:05
  Speaker 5: him but his walk rate's not that bad, this year
• 56:07
  Speaker 5: and his strikeout rate is. Quite high he's a, good.
• 56:10
  Speaker 5: PITCHER man i think he is going to be getting
• 56:13
  Speaker 5: back into, form here And The, white sox believe it,
• 56:15
  Speaker 5: or not only have three hitters who have ever. Faced
• 56:17
  Speaker 5: HIM so i think he matches up well here because
• 56:20
  Speaker 5: most Of The white sox hitters have never even, faced
• 56:22
  Speaker 5: him and the ones that have are only two. For
• 56:24
  Speaker 5: nine often the Only extra bates hit is a double from?
• 56:27
  Speaker 5: Who else Ben. And tendy he does have three walks
• 56:31
  Speaker 5: one strikeout, against them but two twenty two average. Seven
• 56:33
  Speaker 5: fifth the ops not horrible pitching, numbers here plus he's unfamiliar.
• 56:38
  Speaker 5: To THEM so I think williams should pitch, well HERE
• 56:41
  Speaker 5: and i much prefer Him Over, anthony KAY who i
• 56:44
  Speaker 5: do not think is a good pitcher For The white
• 56:47
  Speaker 5: sox four point six POINT one era one point four to.
• 56:50
  Speaker 5: Four whip he was pitching effectively enough for, a WHILE
• 56:54
  Speaker 5: but i think those times have come. And. GONE man
• 56:57
  Speaker 5: i know.
• 56:57
  Speaker 6: His record looks good at six.
• 56:58
  Speaker 5: And two he gets run, support here but he is
• 57:01
  Speaker 5: starting to pitch a lot worse than he. WAS before
• 57:03
  Speaker 5: i know we're fading the home road. Splits here he's
• 57:05
  Speaker 5: got a three point Oh eight homia RACE so i
• 57:08
  Speaker 5: know he's better, at home and he is stepping way
• 57:11
  Speaker 5: down in class after Facing the dodgers And. THE yankees i.
• 57:14
  Speaker 5: Get that but he's failed to go five innings and
• 57:16
  Speaker 5: two of his three starts, this MONTH so i don't.
• 57:19
  Speaker 5: Love that he is definitely pitching worse than he. WAS
• 57:22
  Speaker 5: before i just his overall numbers are just not something
• 57:26
  Speaker 5: to really inspire. Much confidence he's got a high, hit
• 57:29
  Speaker 5: rate his walk rate, is okay and his strikeout rate is.
• 57:32
  Speaker 5: Really low he's clearly the lesser Pitcher versus Williams here
• 57:36
  Speaker 5: Man and Kay. Against. Cleveland, Uh yeah cleveland hasn't faced.
• 57:42
  Speaker 5: SO much i know they're only zero for two. Off
• 57:44
  Speaker 5: him Just fair Child and hoskins have faced him one
• 57:47
  Speaker 5: walk and There from hoskins. No STRIKEOUTS but i Don't
• 57:50
  Speaker 5: think kay is gonna do. THAT well i think he
• 57:52
  Speaker 5: might surrender To The white sox bullpen earlier in the
• 57:57
  Speaker 5: Game than. WILLIAMS will i think we get the pitching
• 57:59
  Speaker 5: edge throughout this Game with CLEVELAND here i.
• 58:02
  Speaker 6: Believe the money agrees with me on.
• 58:03
  Speaker 5: This, one yeah sixty five percent of the tickets ninety
• 58:06
  Speaker 5: four percent of the Cash, on cleveland so the money
• 58:08
  Speaker 5: is agreeing with me and Back in cleveland in, this
• 58:10
  Speaker 5: one taking a TEAM that i think the public won't
• 58:14
  Speaker 5: be interested in because their. Offense sucks minus won sixteen
• 58:19
  Speaker 5: or zos the, price here it's all over. The place
• 58:21
  Speaker 5: minus one twelve is The best. I've found that is
• 58:23
  Speaker 5: my last play of. The day i'm gonna be. Right
• 58:27
  Speaker 5: back i'll go over the rest of. These games this
• 58:29
  Speaker 5: show has taken longer than it. Usually does but then
• 58:32
  Speaker 5: WE have Wnba And world CUP that i will talk
• 58:35
  Speaker 5: ABOUT before i end. The show i'll be, right back.
• 1:00:09
  Speaker 5: All right.
• 1:00:12
  Speaker 6: Next Game is Dodgers.
• 1:00:14
  Speaker 5: And twins minnesota is returning home from a, road trip so,
• 1:00:19
  Speaker 5: YOU know i like to fade teams returning home from. Road.
• 1:00:21
  Speaker 5: Trips typically they had a really successful. Road trip they
• 1:00:24
  Speaker 5: went five and one on the. Road trip they Went
• 1:00:26
  Speaker 5: to Texas. AND arizona i don't think they're gonna Overlook, the,
• 1:00:30
  Speaker 5: DODGERS though, i mean you're not gonna overlook the best team,
• 1:00:32
  Speaker 5: in baseball so you know that lessens the return home
• 1:00:37
  Speaker 5: spot a. Little bit minnesota has a, bad, bullpen though
• 1:00:40
  Speaker 5: the ranked, dead last the ranked dead last. And bullpen
• 1:00:44
  Speaker 5: they used four relief. Pitchers yesterday dodgers also Used four
• 1:00:48
  Speaker 5: dodgers' bullpen has been a bit. Worse recently they weren't good,
• 1:00:51
  Speaker 5: yesterday either but there's still ranked FIFTH, in whip ALTHOUGH
• 1:00:55
  Speaker 5: the era is a bit worse, than that so they're
• 1:00:57
  Speaker 5: kind of more of a. Mediocre bullpen twins Are a
• 1:01:00
  Speaker 5: they're dead LAST in era AND in whip. Terrible bullpen
• 1:01:05
  Speaker 5: dodgers are number one. In, Offense still twins have been hitting.
• 1:01:09
  Speaker 5: Well recently they're up to number eight right now, in
• 1:01:11
  Speaker 5: offense so this could be more of an offensive type of.
• 1:01:15
  Speaker 5: Series here this pitching matchup looks like that might help
• 1:01:18
  Speaker 5: the case for the over in a game.
• 1:01:20
  Speaker 6: Like This eric lower is pitching For.
• 1:01:23
  Speaker 5: The dodgers not good numbers on, the season most of
• 1:01:26
  Speaker 5: these Numbers with, toronto though five point THREE, seven era
• 1:01:29
  Speaker 5: one point three TO.
• 1:01:30
  Speaker 6: ONE whip I think toronto actually.
• 1:01:31
  Speaker 5: TRADED him i thought that they'd, cut HIM but i
• 1:01:33
  Speaker 5: think they actually, traded him so they got something out.
• 1:01:35
  Speaker 5: Of him his numbers overall, not good but he actually
• 1:01:38
  Speaker 5: has been a little bit better since joining the Joining,
• 1:01:41
  Speaker 5: the DODGERS his era on the road is a little.
• 1:01:44
  Speaker 5: Bit better five point Zero Six roady ram since Joining,
• 1:01:48
  Speaker 5: the dodgers though he's actually allowed three or fewer earned
• 1:01:50
  Speaker 5: runs in all four of, his starts so he's actually
• 1:01:53
  Speaker 5: been better since Joining. The dodgers so maybe a change
• 1:01:57
  Speaker 5: of scenery playing for a tending team maybe helped is
• 1:02:02
  Speaker 5: helping him out a. Little Bit, ALTHOUGH lower, I mean
• 1:02:04
  Speaker 5: i don't KNOW if i buy last, year's, numbers though like,
• 1:02:07
  Speaker 5: he pitched he overperformed, last YEAR so i still don't
• 1:02:10
  Speaker 5: think he's. That good his overall numbers here pretty low hit,
• 1:02:13
  Speaker 5: rate actually but his walk rates, too high strike out rate,
• 1:02:16
  Speaker 5: really low not really, Fooling Hitters so i'm still not
• 1:02:20
  Speaker 5: convinced that he's.
• 1:02:21
  Speaker 6: That good but he is pitching BETTER With.
• 1:02:23
  Speaker 5: La here his Numbers against minnesota not good three point
• 1:02:27
  Speaker 5: thirty nine batting average, one thy ninety four oh ps
• 1:02:30
  Speaker 5: in sixty two, at bats eleven to six strikeout, walk
• 1:02:33
  Speaker 5: ratio and he's alloted seven home runs to them from five.
• 1:02:36
  Speaker 5: Different patters that's, Not GREAT so i this does not
• 1:02:40
  Speaker 5: look like a good Matchup. For. Lower here he's going
• 1:02:43
  Speaker 5: Up Against, zebbie matthews who has A bad era four point,
• 1:02:48
  Speaker 5: seven eight but his whip is actually pretty good one
• 1:02:50
  Speaker 5: point one, To EIGHT so I think matthews is better
• 1:02:53
  Speaker 5: THAN his rra makes him look he's, Still young he's
• 1:02:56
  Speaker 5: got some, talent here and he's been good at home
• 1:02:58
  Speaker 5: one point eight home, the Ra so matthews might have
• 1:03:01
  Speaker 5: some matchup. Edges here matthews had a nice bounce back
• 1:03:04
  Speaker 5: after a bad Start against detroity bounce back with a
• 1:03:07
  Speaker 5: good Start. Against texas but he has been alternating good
• 1:03:10
  Speaker 5: and bad starts for a, while here and that would
• 1:03:13
  Speaker 5: mean that this would be a bad start if that was.
• 1:03:15
  Speaker 5: The case although his other bad STARTS were i think
• 1:03:19
  Speaker 5: both on, The road yes, they were so he hasn't
• 1:03:23
  Speaker 5: really had one of those bad starts.
• 1:03:25
  Speaker 6: At home he's got a pretty low, hit.
• 1:03:27
  Speaker 5: Rate really low, walk rate and his strikeout rate, is
• 1:03:29
  Speaker 5: okay but his command numbers here are. Pretty GOOD so
• 1:03:32
  Speaker 5: I think matthews is better than people think that. He
• 1:03:34
  Speaker 5: is And the dodgers have actually never faced, him BEFORE
• 1:03:38
  Speaker 5: so I THINK matthews i don't really want to play the.
• 1:03:40
  Speaker 5: OVER here I think matthews has a starting pitching. Advantage
• 1:03:44
  Speaker 5: here PROBLEM is i Don't like minnesota in a return home,
• 1:03:47
  Speaker 5: Spot EITHER but i think that if you're gonna play,
• 1:03:50
  Speaker 5: THIS game i think what makes the most sense is
• 1:03:54
  Speaker 5: To play minnesota in the. FIRST five i think that
• 1:03:58
  Speaker 5: might be what you want. TO do i think you
• 1:03:59
  Speaker 5: might have a start pitching Advantage with minnesota hear and
• 1:04:02
  Speaker 5: then you want to avoid their. Horrible bullpen that might
• 1:04:06
  Speaker 5: be the Approach The. Dodgers republic they got eighty nine
• 1:04:08
  Speaker 5: percent of, the tickets eighty two percent of the cash.
• 1:04:11
  Speaker 6: On them they're around minus one.
• 1:04:12
  Speaker 5: FIFTY something i don't know what the price is in the,
• 1:04:14
  Speaker 5: first five but you might even be able To grab
• 1:04:17
  Speaker 5: minnesota plus half a run in the first five at a. Decent,
• 1:04:21
  Speaker 5: Price here i'll go with them to stay within go
• 1:04:25
  Speaker 5: with them to either be leading or tied at the end.
• 1:04:27
  Speaker 5: OF five i think they're they're capable, of THAT but
• 1:04:30
  Speaker 5: i do worry about the return, home spot so that
• 1:04:32
  Speaker 5: game's not on my card. Or anything but that is
• 1:04:35
  Speaker 5: potentially an approach there for that.
• 1:04:39
  Speaker 6: Particular game Arizona At.
• 1:04:41
  Speaker 5: Saint Louis saint louis did get the win yesterday twelve
• 1:04:44
  Speaker 5: to ten over their Geographic Rival kansas city to avoid,
• 1:04:49
  Speaker 5: getting swept and now they're. Returning home but they're only
• 1:04:52
  Speaker 5: coming Back From kansas city.
• 1:04:54
  Speaker 6: Short trip plus it was it was a short road
• 1:04:57
  Speaker 6: Trip To.
• 1:04:57
  Speaker 5: Kansas city they only had one series on, the road
• 1:05:00
  Speaker 5: plus it's a short, trip BACK so i don't think
• 1:05:02
  Speaker 5: this is one of those typical return. HOME spots i
• 1:05:05
  Speaker 5: don't think it's that Negative For saint, louis here but
• 1:05:08
  Speaker 5: they did get a big. Win yesterday arizona is coming
• 1:05:12
  Speaker 5: off a couple of ugly Losses to minnesota and now
• 1:05:14
  Speaker 5: starting a, road trip so the spot is still more
• 1:05:18
  Speaker 5: Positive for. Arizona Here saint louis used a lot of
• 1:05:21
  Speaker 5: their bullpen yesterday in that very high. Scoring game may
• 1:05:25
  Speaker 5: was out of the, game Early And saint louis used seven. Relief,
• 1:05:29
  Speaker 5: pitchers yeah that's, not good so they might be at
• 1:05:32
  Speaker 5: a disadvantage in the. Bullpen here arizona. Used four arizona
• 1:05:38
  Speaker 5: does have the somewhat better bullpen the. RANK ninth i
• 1:05:40
  Speaker 5: still don't like their Bullpen, e Ray But saint louis's
• 1:05:43
  Speaker 5: Bullpen e ray is still worse and the, ranked twentieth
• 1:05:46
  Speaker 5: so EVEN though i think they're a little bit better,
• 1:05:48
  Speaker 5: than THAT but I think arizona has the bullpen edge
• 1:05:50
  Speaker 5: here due to to the rest and being. Slightly, Better
• 1:05:54
  Speaker 5: Anyway saint louis is the. Better offense they're Tied with houston.
• 1:05:57
  Speaker 5: AT eleventh i always forget who we're even Talking about arizona's.
• 1:06:04
  Speaker 5: Twenty six arizona's offense has really struggled. This year not
• 1:06:08
  Speaker 5: the most elite pitching matchup in. This One merril kelly
• 1:06:12
  Speaker 5: is Pitching. For arizona bad numbers here five point EIGHT
• 1:06:15
  Speaker 5: one era and one point five TO. One whip maybe
• 1:06:18
  Speaker 5: we do have to start questioning whether his career is ending,
• 1:06:21
  Speaker 5: here man because he's been pretty solid throughout, his career
• 1:06:25
  Speaker 5: but this year has not gone well. For him he
• 1:06:29
  Speaker 5: has been good on the, road though four point twenty
• 1:06:31
  Speaker 5: nine ROAD, e ra so you might be able to
• 1:06:33
  Speaker 5: back him in a spot like this on the road
• 1:06:36
  Speaker 5: against a on, the road in a pitcher front of.
• 1:06:39
  Speaker 5: The environment.
• 1:06:40
  Speaker 6: Excuse me he has not been good.
• 1:06:42
  Speaker 5: Recently though he's allowed almost one run per inning this
• 1:06:45
  Speaker 5: month and only had a nine to six strikeout walk
• 1:06:48
  Speaker 5: ratio very low strikeout rate in sixteen to third innings
• 1:06:52
  Speaker 5: plus twenty one. Hits allowed he's been. Really struggling but
• 1:06:55
  Speaker 5: his two really bad starts this month we're both, at
• 1:06:58
  Speaker 5: home and he was good on the road last time
• 1:07:00
  Speaker 5: he was on the Road, against miami so he might
• 1:07:03
  Speaker 5: still do. Well here but he's got a high, hit rate,
• 1:07:06
  Speaker 5: walk rate not great and strike out rate, really low
• 1:07:09
  Speaker 5: not that he's really a, strikeout guy but his numbers
• 1:07:11
  Speaker 5: have definitely gotten worse than what they. Have been they're
• 1:07:15
  Speaker 5: much worse than what they have been throughout. His career so, it's,
• 1:07:17
  Speaker 5: like well how do we, Gauge, this like is he
• 1:07:20
  Speaker 5: going to continue?
• 1:07:20
  Speaker 6: To suck is his?
• 1:07:22
  Speaker 5: Career over or is he gonna get back somewhere close
• 1:07:25
  Speaker 5: to what he was in, the past because he's never
• 1:07:26
  Speaker 5: really been like a. VELOCITY guy i don't. THINK so i.
• 1:07:29
  Speaker 6: DON'T know i don't know what the deal is.
• 1:07:31
  Speaker 5: With him this might be one of the more advantageous matchups,
• 1:07:34
  Speaker 5: for Him Though saint louis only is yeah five hitters
• 1:07:37
  Speaker 5: who have faced him thirty six at bats one ninety,
• 1:07:40
  Speaker 5: four average five ninety, eight ohps eight to five strike
• 1:07:43
  Speaker 5: out walk ratio is, not good but the rest of
• 1:07:45
  Speaker 5: these numbers are, Pretty good so this looks like a
• 1:07:48
  Speaker 5: better matchup for him on the road pitcher from, the
• 1:07:51
  Speaker 5: environment good, matchup numbers so he might pitch. Well here
• 1:07:55
  Speaker 5: he's going Up Against, andre payante who has been okay.
• 1:07:59
  Speaker 6: THIS year i don't think he's, that good but his
• 1:08:01
  Speaker 6: numbers do.
• 1:08:02
  Speaker 5: Look good he's been pitching better recently three point seven
• 1:08:05
  Speaker 5: to SIX, e rra one point two whip not. Too
• 1:08:07
  Speaker 5: bad not as good at, home though four point five
• 1:08:10
  Speaker 5: to THREE, homey Ra so kelly has the better home road.
• 1:08:13
  Speaker 5: Splits Here saint louis Has won payonte's last, five, starts
• 1:08:17
  Speaker 5: though and he's allowed more than touring runs, only once
• 1:08:20
  Speaker 5: which was a home start Against.
• 1:08:22
  Speaker 6: The cubs But the cubs are a better Offense.
• 1:08:24
  Speaker 5: Than arizona pionte is pitching way better recently and over
• 1:08:28
  Speaker 5: the course of. The season he actually has a low,
• 1:08:30
  Speaker 5: hit rate his walk rate, is needyocre his strikeout rate,
• 1:08:33
  Speaker 5: is low doesn't really strike. Guys out he is a ground,
• 1:08:36
  Speaker 5: ball pitcher but he's been really. Effective, recently however you
• 1:08:40
  Speaker 5: might have to dial it back a little bit because
• 1:08:42
  Speaker 5: his last three starts Are, against Texas the Mets In.
• 1:08:45
  Speaker 5: San diego those are all bottom, Tier offenses so maybe
• 1:08:49
  Speaker 5: you have to dial it back a little bit with him.
• 1:08:51
  Speaker 5: Right now his Numbers against arizona are not that good
• 1:08:57
  Speaker 5: in twenty eight to bats two eighty six average allowed
• 1:08:59
  Speaker 5: eight nineteen, oh ps five to three strike out.
• 1:09:02
  Speaker 6: Walk RATIO so i don't fully trust.
• 1:09:04
  Speaker 5: PAYONE here i. DON'T know I think arizona is the
• 1:09:09
  Speaker 5: side to look. At here it might sound a, little
• 1:09:10
  Speaker 5: CRAZY but i think they have a little bit of
• 1:09:12
  Speaker 5: a starting pitching edge year given what the matchup. LOOKS
• 1:09:15
  Speaker 5: like i know it. Sounds insane kelly's been in, worse
• 1:09:18
  Speaker 5: FORM so i don't really want to, do it but
• 1:09:21
  Speaker 5: the money Is backing arizona seventy two percent of the
• 1:09:24
  Speaker 5: Tickets On saint louis sixty six percent of. The Cash.
• 1:09:26
  Speaker 5: On arizona you'll get them at a pretty decent, underdog
• 1:09:29
  Speaker 5: price probably in the plus one twenties, or something if
• 1:09:32
  Speaker 5: you do want to. DO that i think they do
• 1:09:34
  Speaker 5: have the bullpen edge, As WELL so I think arizona
• 1:09:37
  Speaker 5: may be worth a look at least in That game Boston.
• 1:09:41
  Speaker 5: AT colorado, I mean i'm just giving UP what i
• 1:09:45
  Speaker 5: think are my, best recommendations, you know based ON how i.
• 1:09:48
  Speaker 5: Handicap this but, everybody else, you know every handicapper has
• 1:09:52
  Speaker 5: their own way of. Doing it it does their. Own
• 1:09:54
  Speaker 5: thing there are a lot of different ways to. Be
• 1:09:56
  Speaker 5: Successful so colorado is Facing My red. Sox here colorado
• 1:10:01
  Speaker 5: is staying. At home they just Lost to, pittsburgh yesterday
• 1:10:04
  Speaker 5: but they won. The Series red sox just Lost to
• 1:10:06
  Speaker 5: seattle yesterday but won, the series So The red sox
• 1:10:10
  Speaker 5: are traveling. Into elevation the question in this series is
• 1:10:13
  Speaker 5: really gonna be how To These red sox young pitchers
• 1:10:17
  Speaker 5: Or These red sox pitchers that aren't Familiar. With colorado.
• 1:10:21
  Speaker 6: How are they gonna Fare.
• 1:10:22
  Speaker 5: In colorado that's gonna be the question HERE because i
• 1:10:26
  Speaker 5: Think The red sox are we at least get one young,
• 1:10:28
  Speaker 5: pitcher today BUT actually i think it Might be Gray
• 1:10:33
  Speaker 5: and suarez that line up in this, series though so
• 1:10:35
  Speaker 5: we might get two. Experienced pitchers actually For The red,
• 1:10:38
  Speaker 5: Sox Here red sox only use two elite. Pitchers Yesterday
• 1:10:41
  Speaker 5: The red sox have a huge bullpen advantage Here. Against
• 1:10:44
  Speaker 5: colorado colorado used two. As well But The red sox
• 1:10:48
  Speaker 5: are a. Top bullpen they're ranked SECOND in whip and
• 1:10:51
  Speaker 5: they have the third best, bullpenny array Only behind Atlanta And.
• 1:10:55
  Speaker 6: San diego colorado has one of.
• 1:10:58
  Speaker 5: The worst they're the second worst bullpenny ranked twenty SEVENTH,
• 1:11:02
  Speaker 5: in whip so big bullpen edge To The. Red Sox
• 1:11:05
  Speaker 5: red sox offense has. Been terrible the ranked, Twenty seventh
• 1:11:08
  Speaker 5: colorado's up at tenth, right Now so colorado does have
• 1:11:11
  Speaker 5: the Better Offense red sox are gonna Be Going jake,
• 1:11:14
  Speaker 5: bennett here the big left hander Who Isn't peyton toley who,
• 1:11:19
  Speaker 5: pitched yesterday And The red sox again gave him no.
• 1:11:22
  Speaker 5: Run support bennett has been better than his, era suggests
• 1:11:26
  Speaker 5: at least four point seven to ninety array, not great
• 1:11:29
  Speaker 5: but at one point two to six whip is at.
• 1:11:30
  Speaker 5: Least tolerable bennett has been bad on, the, road though
• 1:11:34
  Speaker 5: seven Point Two, roady ray that's. Not great he hasn't
• 1:11:38
  Speaker 5: been that, bad though if you just look at his.
• 1:11:40
  Speaker 5: Numbers here he's made, four starts he's allowed four viewer,
• 1:11:43
  Speaker 5: and runs and all of them it's hard. To gauge
• 1:11:46
  Speaker 5: he's got a low, strikeout, rate though which isn't.
• 1:11:49
  Speaker 6: Really great that's a.
• 1:11:50
  Speaker 5: Little concerning he's hit rates a little, bit high as
• 1:11:52
  Speaker 5: walk rate, is fine so his command has. Been good
• 1:11:55
  Speaker 5: he induces a lot of, ground balls so that might
• 1:11:57
  Speaker 5: play okay in. Course field the fact that he's not
• 1:12:00
  Speaker 5: a fly ball pitcher and he has not a lot
• 1:12:02
  Speaker 5: of home runs since his first Outing, in may so
• 1:12:06
  Speaker 5: that at least looks okay for him pitching a. Course,
• 1:12:08
  Speaker 5: Field obviously colorado has never seen, him before so he
• 1:12:12
  Speaker 5: does have that advantage as these young pitchers can have
• 1:12:14
  Speaker 5: an edge against these hitters that haven't faced, them before
• 1:12:18
  Speaker 5: so he does have that going. For Him ryan feltner
• 1:12:21
  Speaker 5: is Pitching. For colorado he's not their. Worst pitcher he's
• 1:12:24
  Speaker 5: got a five point ZERO, five vrra but his whip
• 1:12:26
  Speaker 5: is actually not horrendous at one point.
• 1:12:29
  Speaker 6: Two nine so.
• 1:12:30
  Speaker 5: Unfortunately The red sox have to face one Of the
• 1:12:33
  Speaker 5: rockies pitchers who is not a. Total disaster feltner has
• 1:12:37
  Speaker 5: actually been better at home believe it, or not four
• 1:12:40
  Speaker 5: point SIX, homey ra so usually pretty much every pitcher
• 1:12:45
  Speaker 5: is gonna be worse in, this Stadium but feltner's been.
• 1:12:48
  Speaker 5: Fairly decent he is not an extreme flyball, pitcher himself
• 1:12:52
  Speaker 5: although he does allow more flyballs than ground balls by a,
• 1:12:55
  Speaker 5: decent amount but. Not extreme he's got a low hit
• 1:12:59
  Speaker 5: rate on, the season in his walk rate is okay
• 1:13:02
  Speaker 5: and his strikeout rates a little. BIT low, i mean
• 1:13:04
  Speaker 5: he's not a, great pitcher and he's failed to go
• 1:13:06
  Speaker 5: five innings in his last, two outings both Against. The
• 1:13:08
  Speaker 5: cobs But The red sox are a much, weaker offense
• 1:13:12
  Speaker 5: so he might be able to Handle The red sox
• 1:13:14
  Speaker 5: a little bit more. Easily here his numbers Against The
• 1:13:17
  Speaker 5: red sox in his career basically. Don't Exist only monasterio
• 1:13:22
  Speaker 5: has ever. Faced Him Afoordy's. Mono stereo that's that's his
• 1:13:26
  Speaker 5: last name is.
• 1:13:27
  Speaker 3: An.
• 1:13:27
  Speaker 5: Oxymoron monasterio He's at he's at the monastery with. The
• 1:13:33
  Speaker 5: monks he's over one with a strikeout in a Walk.
• 1:13:36
  Speaker 5: Against FELTNER so i don't know what to do with.
• 1:13:39
  Speaker 5: This game and this game is hard. TO predict, i
• 1:13:41
  Speaker 5: mean you don't know what you're gonna get out of these.
• 1:13:43
  Speaker 5: Starters here the money is slightly Backing The red sox,
• 1:13:46
  Speaker 5: right now seventy three percent of, the tickets seventy nine
• 1:13:49
  Speaker 5: percent of the cash. On them but they do look
• 1:13:50
  Speaker 5: like a public road. FAVORITE here i mean there is
• 1:13:54
  Speaker 5: a reason why. THEY'RE favorite, i Mean the rockies getting
• 1:13:56
  Speaker 5: no respect in, the market but they are one of
• 1:13:58
  Speaker 5: the worst teams. In baseball but this is an unfamiliar
• 1:14:02
  Speaker 5: venue For The red sox to be and so it's
• 1:14:03
  Speaker 5: not gonna be. That easy but Maybe The red sox
• 1:14:07
  Speaker 5: offense can break out Because The red sox offense has
• 1:14:09
  Speaker 5: been better on the road and this is a hitter,
• 1:14:12
  Speaker 5: friendly ballparks and Maybe The red sox will be able
• 1:14:14
  Speaker 5: to get some runs in. This series they're around minus one,
• 1:14:18
  Speaker 5: twenty here seventy three percent of, the tickets seventy nine
• 1:14:21
  Speaker 5: percent of the cash On The red sox here in
• 1:14:23
  Speaker 5: the minus one twenty five range really totals at eleven
• 1:14:27
  Speaker 5: and a half with money coming in on the, over
• 1:14:29
  Speaker 5: though so the money is playing the. Over here i'm not.
• 1:14:31
  Speaker 5: SO sure i DON'T think i would really want to
• 1:14:33
  Speaker 5: play an. OVER here i could see both starting pitchers
• 1:14:37
  Speaker 5: actually doing reasonably, OKAY here I guess i, Don't KNOW
• 1:14:41
  Speaker 5: like i think a first, five under, you know could
• 1:14:45
  Speaker 5: be in. Consideration here i'm still not gonna. Do it,
• 1:14:47
  Speaker 5: i'm like almost never gonna play A cords. Field Under
• 1:14:50
  Speaker 5: but i'm just saying that's the WAY that i look at.
• 1:14:52
  Speaker 5: This game, BUT yeah i don't really have a good
• 1:14:54
  Speaker 5: feel for the. Side though oh the, Other Hand, Andy,
• 1:15:00
  Speaker 5: CAPPERS yeah I mean i've been good and not a
• 1:15:02
  Speaker 5: lot of people can have a run like this over seventy,
• 1:15:04
  Speaker 5: nine Days so i'm happy. About that we're running it
• 1:15:08
  Speaker 5: basically sixty seven percent over.
• 1:15:10
  Speaker 6: That span so.
• 1:15:12
  Speaker 5: That's very difficult to do and it's Not gonna i'm,
• 1:15:15
  Speaker 5: telling you it's not. Gonna, Continue really like if we're
• 1:15:18
  Speaker 5: at like fifty, five percent like that's good enough. To
• 1:15:21
  Speaker 5: profit you want to be a little bit above, that
• 1:15:24
  Speaker 5: though especially with the way that, the tax the way
• 1:15:28
  Speaker 5: that tax is set up now in the big, beautiful
• 1:15:31
  Speaker 5: bill which. Is horrible is weather? A factor? NOT real
• 1:15:38
  Speaker 5: i mean if wind is, a factor but other, than that. Not,
• 1:15:41
  Speaker 5: really uh if there's gonna be hail, or tornadoes the
• 1:15:45
  Speaker 5: game just. WON'T happen, i mean if if the, GAME
• 1:15:48
  Speaker 5: happens i don't think weather is really gonna be. An
• 1:15:50
  Speaker 5: issue it's just the high elevation is why you get
• 1:15:53
  Speaker 5: high Totals, In colorado Baltimore. At anaheim anaheim.
• 1:15:57
  Speaker 6: Is returning home from a. Road trip they Went.
• 1:15:59
  Speaker 5: To arizona this is this is a really really long
• 1:16:02
  Speaker 5: show For, a monday fucking. Baseball man even though there
• 1:16:06
  Speaker 5: are two fewer games, to handicap this is still. Taking
• 1:16:09
  Speaker 5: forever anaheim's returning home from Going to arizona And. To
• 1:16:12
  Speaker 5: sacramento now they're returning home. From that they Beat the
• 1:16:15
  Speaker 5: a's the last. Two games return home spots still. Not great,
• 1:16:20
  Speaker 5: you know they could be a little. Bit distracted you
• 1:16:21
  Speaker 5: got to get back to. Home life anaheim is not a.
• 1:16:23
  Speaker 5: Good team baltimore could be in a. Letdown though Even
• 1:16:28
  Speaker 5: though baltimore has a really good travel, spot here they're
• 1:16:30
  Speaker 5: only TRAVELING from La, to anaheim so it's like a
• 1:16:33
  Speaker 5: thirty minute. Drive basically i've done, it before not at,
• 1:16:37
  Speaker 5: the Wheel but i've been in a vehicle that's made that.
• 1:16:40
  Speaker 6: Drive before.
• 1:16:42
  Speaker 5: Baltimore could be in a letdown, spot though after they
• 1:16:45
  Speaker 5: Beat the dodgers twelve to one yesterday and won. The
• 1:16:47
  Speaker 5: series could be a little bit of a let Down.
• 1:16:49
  Speaker 5: For baltimore so negative spot for, both teams but it
• 1:16:52
  Speaker 5: is more Negative for, anaheim HERE so i don't like
• 1:16:56
  Speaker 5: the return home Spot. For. ANAHEIM obviously i do Not like.
• 1:16:59
  Speaker 5: Anaheim's bowl they used three guys out of the. BULLPEN
• 1:17:02
  Speaker 5: yesterday i don't Really like baltimore's. Bullpen either they use
• 1:17:05
  Speaker 5: two relief. Pitchers there anaheim has one of the worst
• 1:17:09
  Speaker 5: bullpens the rank. Twenty sixth baltimore, is Sixteenth BUT baltimore's
• 1:17:14
  Speaker 5: era is four, point five so they're not really that.
• 1:17:17
  Speaker 5: Much better so TWO bullpens i kind of want to
• 1:17:19
  Speaker 5: avoid or. Fade here offenses have been kind of in the.
• 1:17:23
  Speaker 5: Mid range, Baltimore fifteen. Anaheim sixteen, Right now baltimore is
• 1:17:29
  Speaker 5: Going With, kyle bradish who is not. Very GOOD four era,
• 1:17:32
  Speaker 5: looks decent but one point five to one whip. Not
• 1:17:36
  Speaker 5: good that tells you that he's worse THAN his ra makes.
• 1:17:39
  Speaker 5: Him look he's not good on the, road either five
• 1:17:41
  Speaker 5: point zero NINE. Road era but he was really good
• 1:17:45
  Speaker 5: in his last Start, against seattle which was a second
• 1:17:47
  Speaker 5: straight Start. Against seattle and he was really bad the
• 1:17:50
  Speaker 5: first Time, against seattle but on the road the next.
• 1:17:53
  Speaker 5: TIME out i mean it was a pitcher from. The
• 1:17:55
  Speaker 5: park at Least, at seattle he was. Really good he
• 1:17:58
  Speaker 5: went seven to, two thirds give up one or, five hits,
• 1:18:00
  Speaker 5: twelve strikeouts. Two walks but if you look over the
• 1:18:03
  Speaker 5: course of what he's done, this season that was more
• 1:18:05
  Speaker 5: the exception than. The rule he was really bad in
• 1:18:10
  Speaker 5: the prior, to STARTS so i don't Really. Trust bradish
• 1:18:14
  Speaker 5: but he does have a pretty good strikeout ran on.
• 1:18:17
  Speaker 5: The season his hit rate is right at one, per
• 1:18:18
  Speaker 5: inning which. Isn't great it's right on that THRESHOLD that
• 1:18:22
  Speaker 5: i look For in his walk rate is definitely. Too
• 1:18:24
  Speaker 5: high he's walking more than one guy every. Two winnings
• 1:18:28
  Speaker 5: he can't. Do that so not all is Good with
• 1:18:30
  Speaker 5: bradish here Against, the dodgers though they only have four
• 1:18:34
  Speaker 5: hitters who have faced him eighteen. At bats they have
• 1:18:37
  Speaker 5: no extra base hits, against him, seven strikeouts one to
• 1:18:40
  Speaker 5: eleven average and two to twenty two.
• 1:18:41
  Speaker 6: Oh ps so, oh, no sorry we're Looking. At anaheim, My.
• 1:18:45
  Speaker 5: Mistake anaheim it's crazy that he has good numbers Against, the,
• 1:18:49
  Speaker 5: dodgers though but it's a. Small sample anaheim. Very, similar
• 1:18:52
  Speaker 5: actually twelve, at bats four hitters have. Faced him only
• 1:18:55
  Speaker 5: extra base hit is a Double From. Vaughan grissom, five strikeouts,
• 1:18:59
  Speaker 5: no walks sixty, seven average four to. Seventeen Ops so
• 1:19:03
  Speaker 5: bradish is pretty Unfamiliar, to anaheim and when they have,
• 1:19:06
  Speaker 5: faced him he's actually. Dominated THEM so i Actually think
• 1:19:09
  Speaker 5: bradish might have a decent match. Up here at the,
• 1:19:12
  Speaker 5: very least he'll be going up Against, sam ALDEGARY who
• 1:19:17
  Speaker 5: i don't really. Trust him he's got similar Numbers to,
• 1:19:19
  Speaker 5: bradish actually four POINT, five vra one point five to
• 1:19:23
  Speaker 5: five whip and way too. Many walks he's been good
• 1:19:26
  Speaker 5: at home one point seven To Six, homie RAY but
• 1:19:28
  Speaker 5: i think THAT'S in i know that's actually in, four
• 1:19:31
  Speaker 5: outings but he was pitching you out of a bullpen
• 1:19:33
  Speaker 5: though a, LITTLE bit i.
• 1:19:35
  Speaker 6: THINK so i.
• 1:19:36
  Speaker 5: DON'T know i don't know what to really do with
• 1:19:38
  Speaker 5: these numbers because he's only gone five innings twice. This
• 1:19:41
  Speaker 5: season he was really bad in his last Start. Against
• 1:19:44
  Speaker 5: arizona his walk number is still way. Too HIGH like,
• 1:19:47
  Speaker 5: i said he's got a thirteen eleven strike OUT walk
• 1:19:49
  Speaker 5: rationi on twenty innings on top of twenty. Hits allowed that's.
• 1:19:52
  Speaker 5: Not good the hit rate, is mediocre but that walk
• 1:19:56
  Speaker 5: rate clearly. Too high strike out rate. Is low he's
• 1:19:59
  Speaker 5: the so he might, become something but right now he's.
• 1:20:03
  Speaker 5: Not trustworthy his Numbers. Against baltimore they've never seen, him
• 1:20:06
  Speaker 5: before so he does have. THAT advantage i guess. The
• 1:20:10
  Speaker 5: UNFAMILIARITY but I think baltimore is probably the right. Side
• 1:20:14
  Speaker 5: here but you have to lay a ridiculous price. With
• 1:20:17
  Speaker 5: them they're like minus one sixty on the. ROAD here
• 1:20:21
  Speaker 5: i don't think you could, do, IT man, i mean
• 1:20:23
  Speaker 5: you'd have to turn it into a minus one run Line.
• 1:20:25
  Speaker 5: With baltimore it looks like the money is. FADING them
• 1:20:29
  Speaker 5: i can't tell because this hover over won't go the.
• 1:20:31
  Speaker 6: FUCK away i hate.
• 1:20:34
  Speaker 5: That. Thing uh, seventy tickets sixty two percent of the Cash,
• 1:20:38
  Speaker 5: on baltimore so the money is. Fading them they're around minus.
• 1:20:41
  Speaker 5: One sixty that does seem like a. Steep PRICE like,
• 1:20:44
  Speaker 5: I know anaheim is not. Very good it's a bad Spot.
• 1:20:47
  Speaker 5: For anaheim bradish is probably the more backable, pitcher here
• 1:20:50
  Speaker 5: especially given his. Matchup NUMBERS but i, don't, KNOW man,
• 1:20:55
  Speaker 5: i mean laying minus one sixty is just kind. OF
• 1:20:57
  Speaker 5: ridiculous i Don't think baltimore should really be laying a
• 1:21:00
  Speaker 5: price like that on the road against, really anybody Especially
• 1:21:03
  Speaker 5: with bradish on. The MOUND so i think you're paying
• 1:21:06
  Speaker 5: too much of a. Price there you could make it
• 1:21:08
  Speaker 5: into a minus one run line to have to pay less.
• 1:21:11
  Speaker 5: For it, BUT yeah, i mean this game is obviously
• 1:21:15
  Speaker 5: a pass. For me the money is coming in on
• 1:21:16
  Speaker 5: the over in the game. AS well i don't know
• 1:21:19
  Speaker 5: what to do with. That information the numbers, AT nine
• 1:21:22
  Speaker 5: I could, I mean i could see the argument for
• 1:21:23
  Speaker 5: you have two. Bad bullpens both starters are, fairly untrustworthy
• 1:21:27
  Speaker 5: so it over makes some. Sense there sixty percent of
• 1:21:31
  Speaker 5: tickets on the under makes no sense. To me ninety
• 1:21:34
  Speaker 5: one percent of the cash on. The over you would
• 1:21:37
  Speaker 5: think that the public would be on the over in
• 1:21:38
  Speaker 5: a game, like THAT but i, Don't know i'm. Skipping
• 1:21:41
  Speaker 5: in and then We have Atlanta And san DIEGO on
• 1:21:43
  Speaker 5: espn in the. Late Game san diego's returning home from
• 1:21:47
  Speaker 5: a long. Road trip they went all the Way, to
• 1:21:49
  Speaker 5: Baltimore Then, saint Louis, Then texas so this is the
• 1:21:53
  Speaker 5: longest road trip return spot that, we HAVE and i
• 1:21:55
  Speaker 5: think the longer the, road trip the worse. It is
• 1:21:58
  Speaker 5: so this could be a Distractions For san diego returning,
• 1:22:01
  Speaker 5: home here but they're probably not gonna Overlook the. Braves
• 1:22:05
  Speaker 5: though that's. The thing this is still a big match
• 1:22:07
  Speaker 5: up Against, the braves so they might still have. Focus Here.
• 1:22:11
  Speaker 5: The braves they're traveling across country, as well so it's
• 1:22:15
  Speaker 5: not a great spot For The the braves are actually
• 1:22:18
  Speaker 5: traveling across more time zones Here Because san diego is
• 1:22:21
  Speaker 5: just In the central. Time zone atlanta's traveling From the
• 1:22:24
  Speaker 5: eastern times. On here, YOU know i don't like That
• 1:22:27
  Speaker 5: An east coast team going west for a really late game,
• 1:22:30
  Speaker 5: Like this it can mess with their, biological CLOCKS so
• 1:22:33
  Speaker 5: i don't like That. For ATLANTA so i think it's
• 1:22:35
  Speaker 5: kind of a negative spot for both. Teams here so
• 1:22:38
  Speaker 5: that makes this handicap a little bit, more interesting a
• 1:22:41
  Speaker 5: little bit, MORE difficult i guess. Less straightforward both teams
• 1:22:46
  Speaker 5: have really. Good bullpens atlanta used one guy out of the,
• 1:22:48
  Speaker 5: bullpen Yesterday san diego, used FOUR but i still like.
• 1:22:52
  Speaker 5: Both bullpens atlanta is number one IN both ERA. And
• 1:22:56
  Speaker 5: Whip san diego is the number two BULLPEN, in era SIXTH.
• 1:23:00
  Speaker 5: In WHIP but i think we could be looking at
• 1:23:02
  Speaker 5: the top two bullpens in baseball here in. This series
• 1:23:06
  Speaker 5: atlanta is the way. Better offense they're, number six and
• 1:23:09
  Speaker 5: they're a little bit better on. The road they're tied
• 1:23:11
  Speaker 5: in Six With. Chicago Cubs san diego's dead, last thirtieth
• 1:23:17
  Speaker 5: so obviously. Not Good grant holmes is Pitching, for atlanta
• 1:23:20
  Speaker 5: so just looking at the pitching, matchup Here san diego
• 1:23:24
  Speaker 5: has the better starter on the, Mound Here grant holmes
• 1:23:27
  Speaker 5: is not. That good four point three TO three era
• 1:23:29
  Speaker 5: one POINT four whip is pretty bad four point FOUR.
• 1:23:33
  Speaker 6: Road era so he's slightly worse on.
• 1:23:35
  Speaker 5: The road he hasn't even made it four innings in
• 1:23:38
  Speaker 5: his last two starts in either, of them and he's
• 1:23:40
  Speaker 5: failed to make it five innings and three of his,
• 1:23:42
  Speaker 5: last four so he is not pitching well. Right now
• 1:23:45
  Speaker 5: eight to seven strike up walk ratio of this month
• 1:23:47
  Speaker 5: plus thirteen hits allowed and eleven and two thirds innings,
• 1:23:51
  Speaker 5: not good. Not good his hit rate is okay on.
• 1:23:54
  Speaker 5: The season his walk rate is definitely. Too high basically
• 1:23:58
  Speaker 5: won every two winnings then right got rates a little.
• 1:24:00
  Speaker 5: BIT low i Don't.
• 1:24:02
  Speaker 6: Trust holmes he walks too. Many guys he's.
• 1:24:04
  Speaker 5: Not great he does get a DECENT matchup i think
• 1:24:07
  Speaker 5: Here Against, san diego just because they're not a good
• 1:24:10
  Speaker 5: offense and it's in a pitcher friendly. Park Here But
• 1:24:13
  Speaker 5: san diego has actually hit him well three thirty, three
• 1:24:15
  Speaker 5: average eight to twenty oh ps and twenty one, at
• 1:24:18
  Speaker 5: bats four to two strike out, Walk Ratio so holmes
• 1:24:23
  Speaker 5: may not be really. Trustworthy Here Man michael king is
• 1:24:26
  Speaker 5: Pitching For. San diego he is the more trustworthy, pitcher
• 1:24:29
  Speaker 5: generally even though he's gotten very little, run support which
• 1:24:33
  Speaker 5: is why his record's. Not good the offense behind him
• 1:24:36
  Speaker 5: sucks three POINT, sixty ra one point one to.
• 1:24:39
  Speaker 6: Nine whip those are.
• 1:24:40
  Speaker 5: Good numbers he's good at home three point THREE homey
• 1:24:43
  Speaker 5: ra wasn't good in his. Last start he's actually been
• 1:24:47
  Speaker 5: a little bit worse his last two starts with a
• 1:24:49
  Speaker 5: four to six strikeout. Walk ratio that's a little bit
• 1:24:52
  Speaker 5: concerning at Home against cincinnati and on the Road Against.
• 1:24:55
  Speaker 5: Saint louis he should have done better in bolt. Those
• 1:24:57
  Speaker 5: starts but he's a, good PITCHER so i think he will.
• 1:25:00
  Speaker 5: Bounce back but he's not in good form. Right now
• 1:25:04
  Speaker 5: wasn't particularly good in his last two Starts in, may
• 1:25:07
  Speaker 5: either but his overall numbers are, pretty good really low,
• 1:25:10
  Speaker 5: hit rate strikeout rate is actually not as high as you.
• 1:25:13
  Speaker 5: Would think usually he's a better strike. Up pitcher and
• 1:25:15
  Speaker 5: his walk rate is, too high and it's been too,
• 1:25:18
  Speaker 5: high recently so there are some Issues with king. Right
• 1:25:21
  Speaker 5: now King against atlanta does have pretty good numbers, here
• 1:25:25
  Speaker 5: though in sixty six, at bats twenty to four strikeout
• 1:25:28
  Speaker 5: walk ratio is really. Good too forty two average six
• 1:25:31
  Speaker 5: h four ops not too. BAD here i don't know
• 1:25:35
  Speaker 5: what to do with, this game to, be. HONEST man,
• 1:25:37
  Speaker 5: i mean both teams seem like they're in some somewhat
• 1:25:41
  Speaker 5: of a negative. Spot here the money Is. Backing atlanta
• 1:25:44
  Speaker 5: it looks like the game is right around to pick
• 1:25:47
  Speaker 5: them pick the. Winner here sixty nine percent of the
• 1:25:50
  Speaker 5: tickets eighty nine percent of the Cash, on atlanta so
• 1:25:53
  Speaker 5: the money's. Backing them the money's backing the over at
• 1:25:56
  Speaker 5: seven and. A half i, don't, KNOW man, I mean
• 1:25:59
  Speaker 5: I Know san diego is in a really negative spot
• 1:26:01
  Speaker 5: with the return home, spot here but both teams are
• 1:26:03
  Speaker 5: having to travel cross country here. LIKE this i prefer
• 1:26:07
  Speaker 5: king over, homes, Though man and, you know both bullpens are.
• 1:26:12
  Speaker 6: PRETTY good i.
• 1:26:12
  Speaker 5: DON'T know i would Slightly Lean, san diego but it's
• 1:26:16
  Speaker 5: not STRONG and i don't like really the matchup numbers
• 1:26:19
  Speaker 5: don't look good for either, Pitcher HERE so i.
• 1:26:22
  Speaker 6: Don't know doesn't over make some sense?
• 1:26:24
  Speaker 5: Here MAYBE but i mean we're looking at two good
• 1:26:27
  Speaker 5: pitching teams, though HERE so i. Don't know lanta does
• 1:26:30
  Speaker 5: have the, better office so that's a. Difficult handicap so
• 1:26:33
  Speaker 5: do with that information what. You WANT but i don't
• 1:26:35
  Speaker 5: have a good read on that game. AT, all wnba
• 1:26:38
  Speaker 5: we unfortunately have four. GAMES here i have a couple
• 1:26:42
  Speaker 5: of Leans here Chicago. At connecticut connecticut is staying. At
• 1:26:45
  Speaker 5: home they've lost a ton of games in. A row
• 1:26:48
  Speaker 5: THEY'VE lost i think eight games in, a row seven whatever.
• 1:26:50
  Speaker 5: That is connecticut's not a. Good team they're the worst
• 1:26:53
  Speaker 5: team in, the league but they're Catching a.
• 1:26:55
  Speaker 6: Chicago team it's not.
• 1:26:57
  Speaker 5: That good chicago is the second worst team In The
• 1:27:00
  Speaker 5: eastern conference. Standings here they've been dealing with a lot.
• 1:27:03
  Speaker 5: Of injuries not a good Season for. Chicago here these
• 1:27:07
  Speaker 5: teams did, play Once and chicago won only by five
• 1:27:12
  Speaker 5: at Home. Against, connecticut now if we dig into this
• 1:27:15
  Speaker 5: matchup a, Little bit chicago didn't cover there were six
• 1:27:18
  Speaker 5: and a half when the game. Went off you look
• 1:27:21
  Speaker 5: at the, numbers, Here though connecticut had a really bad
• 1:27:23
  Speaker 5: three point, shooting game and that was kind of the biggest.
• 1:27:26
  Speaker 5: Outlier here connecticut Actually outrebounded chicago, By Twelve so chicago
• 1:27:32
  Speaker 5: didn't play well in. This game so that kind of
• 1:27:35
  Speaker 5: has to be Looking towards connecticut a little, bit here
• 1:27:37
  Speaker 5: because Even though connecticut lost, that game the matchup numbers,
• 1:27:40
  Speaker 5: suggests that like if you look at the, Box score
• 1:27:43
  Speaker 5: connecticut could bounce back a little.
• 1:27:45
  Speaker 6: Bit from having a horrific three point.
• 1:27:47
  Speaker 5: Shooting game although they're not a good, shooting team but
• 1:27:49
  Speaker 5: they had more field goal attempts in the game and
• 1:27:52
  Speaker 5: they dominated. The rebounds so that does kind of look
• 1:27:55
  Speaker 5: Good for connecticut coming into. This one chicago is coming
• 1:27:59
  Speaker 5: off a couple of really close games where they went
• 1:28:02
  Speaker 5: to Overtime, at indiana Played the liberty to within one
• 1:28:05
  Speaker 5: point and lost on a, buzzer beater and then they
• 1:28:08
  Speaker 5: lost on late free Throws against dallas on, the road
• 1:28:13
  Speaker 5: is another. Big Underdog so chicago's kind of in a
• 1:28:15
  Speaker 5: bad spot here because they're coming up three really big
• 1:28:19
  Speaker 5: efforts where they fell just short three straight games against.
• 1:28:23
  Speaker 5: Better teams that, is, Brutal dude and they're having to
• 1:28:26
  Speaker 5: travel Now from Dallas. To CONNECTICUT so I think connecticut
• 1:28:30
  Speaker 5: is the way to look in. THIS game i DON'T
• 1:28:32
  Speaker 5: think i want to. Do It but chicago's only had
• 1:28:35
  Speaker 5: one day off after. That Too if chicago had had
• 1:28:38
  Speaker 5: a big game, up next which they, don't really They're,
• 1:28:41
  Speaker 5: playing portland who they actually beat in the, season opener
• 1:28:44
  Speaker 5: so that's not a huge game for. Them there, but
• 1:28:47
  Speaker 5: yeah it would be a little bit Stronger if chicago
• 1:28:50
  Speaker 5: had a big game.
• 1:28:51
  Speaker 6: Up NEXT but I like.
• 1:28:52
  Speaker 5: Connecticut here chicago's only laying three and a half or
• 1:28:55
  Speaker 5: actually it looks like it's at three at most, places
• 1:28:57
  Speaker 5: now seventy nine percent of ticket seventy six of the Cash,
• 1:29:00
  Speaker 5: on chicago so they're a public side with less of
• 1:29:03
  Speaker 5: the money. ON them i Would play connecticut plus the
• 1:29:06
  Speaker 5: points in. THAT one i know it's, really ugly but
• 1:29:09
  Speaker 5: you KNOW how i handicap.
• 1:29:11
  Speaker 6: These games Toronto.
• 1:29:12
  Speaker 5: At atlanta atlanta's coming off back to back Wins, over
• 1:29:16
  Speaker 5: indiana and prior, to that They embarrassed Toronto in toronto
• 1:29:20
  Speaker 5: one oh two to, seventy Seven and atlanta has now
• 1:29:23
  Speaker 5: scored over one hundred points in three. Straight games so
• 1:29:26
  Speaker 5: you KNOW what i think about. THIS game i Would fade.
• 1:29:29
  Speaker 5: Atlanta here they're coming off two. Huge wins they've been
• 1:29:32
  Speaker 5: putting up a shitload, of points so nobody's gonna want
• 1:29:35
  Speaker 5: to fade. Them here They embarrassed Toronto in toronto the
• 1:29:39
  Speaker 5: other time they, played them and this game was a
• 1:29:40
  Speaker 5: Game where atlanta was a.
• 1:29:41
  Speaker 6: Big favorite they're the.
• 1:29:42
  Speaker 5: Better team they were a seven and a half point
• 1:29:45
  Speaker 5: favorite in, this game so you know they're gonna be
• 1:29:47
  Speaker 5: a big favorite at. Home here but, IN fact i
• 1:29:49
  Speaker 5: think they're actually favored by. Too much they're favored by
• 1:29:52
  Speaker 5: thirteen and, A half like if they were seven and
• 1:29:54
  Speaker 5: a half three games Ago. At toronto you don't get
• 1:29:57
  Speaker 5: that much for. Home court they should probably be about
• 1:30:00
  Speaker 5: ten or, eleven here but the thirteen and. A HALF
• 1:30:03
  Speaker 5: so i think there is some line value Looking towards
• 1:30:06
  Speaker 5: toronto in. This game now if we dig into this
• 1:30:08
  Speaker 5: box score though in the, previous game the problem is
• 1:30:11
  Speaker 5: both teams shot like the, same amount like the. SAME percentage,
• 1:30:15
  Speaker 5: I mean atlanta just dominated. The, Game like atlanta had
• 1:30:18
  Speaker 5: way more possessions in, the game they didn't win the
• 1:30:21
  Speaker 5: turnover battle by, that much and they absolutely dominated the.
• 1:30:24
  Speaker 5: Rebound battle It's The angel. Reese. Factor man atlanta had
• 1:30:29
  Speaker 5: almost double the Rebounds of. Toronto Here so atlanta was
• 1:30:33
  Speaker 5: just clearly the better team in. This game, even, if yeah,
• 1:30:36
  Speaker 5: you know like a win by forty points or what
• 1:30:39
  Speaker 5: obviously thirty points or whatever, Is misleading like a little
• 1:30:43
  Speaker 5: bit of twenty five, points whatever.
• 1:30:44
  Speaker 6: It was a win by that much is always a little.
• 1:30:47
  Speaker 5: Bit MISLEADING but i was looking for some sort of
• 1:30:50
  Speaker 5: regression point to, look, at, Like oh toronto shot horribly
• 1:30:53
  Speaker 5: in the game, or something but that wasn't. The case
• 1:30:56
  Speaker 5: both teams shot very similar Percentages in atlanta domin, The
• 1:31:00
  Speaker 5: REBOUNDS so I like toronto in. THIS game i think
• 1:31:04
  Speaker 5: there was some line. VALUE there i think the spot
• 1:31:06
  Speaker 5: isn't really Good, for ATLANTA but i am not gonna
• 1:31:09
  Speaker 5: come in and actually make the play because there's just
• 1:31:11
  Speaker 5: not enough of a regression. Point there atlanta does start
• 1:31:15
  Speaker 5: a road trip going out To The pacific Coast on
• 1:31:17
  Speaker 5: wednesday FOR a tv game against a Pretty Good golden,
• 1:31:20
  Speaker 5: state team so they may.
• 1:31:22
  Speaker 6: Look ahead to that a.
• 1:31:23
  Speaker 5: Little. Bit here they definitely Could overlook toronto after destroying
• 1:31:27
  Speaker 5: them in that previous game and after getting two big Wins.
• 1:31:30
  Speaker 5: Against atlanta, SO yeah, i MEAN like, I said i
• 1:31:32
  Speaker 5: think the way to look at this game is To
• 1:31:34
  Speaker 5: play toronto plus.
• 1:31:35
  Speaker 6: The points not gonna, do, it though and the Money's backing.
• 1:31:38
  Speaker 5: Atlanta for, some reason seventy four percent, of tickets eighty
• 1:31:41
  Speaker 5: nine percent of the cash.
• 1:31:42
  Speaker 6: On them that is NOT what i.
• 1:31:44
  Speaker 5: WOULD do i Would take toronto plus the thirteen and
• 1:31:46
  Speaker 5: a half in. That one it's a. High. Total though
• 1:31:50
  Speaker 5: atlanta's been playing these crazy high, score games which again
• 1:31:53
  Speaker 5: that doesn't make a lot, Of sense like the fact
• 1:31:56
  Speaker 5: that they low that they won two high scoring Games
• 1:31:58
  Speaker 5: against indiana seems odd to Me because atlanta is more
• 1:32:02
  Speaker 5: of a DEFENSIVE team i Think in indiana is more
• 1:32:05
  Speaker 5: of an, Offensive team so you'd think that the high
• 1:32:07
  Speaker 5: scoring games Would.
• 1:32:08
  Speaker 6: Help indiana that just wasn't, the CASE so i.
• 1:32:12
  Speaker 5: Don't know Speaking, of indiana they're Also playing They're, hosting
• 1:32:16
  Speaker 5: phoenix which is THE one tv game HERE On. Usa
• 1:32:19
  Speaker 5: network indiana's coming up those Games. Against atlanta that last game, was,
• 1:32:23
  Speaker 5: embarrassing dude giving up over one hundred points in two
• 1:32:26
  Speaker 5: straight games but also losing by.
• 1:32:29
  Speaker 6: Seventeen points that's.
• 1:32:30
  Speaker 5: Not good they are, returning home but only from a
• 1:32:34
  Speaker 5: single game road Trip, to ATLANTA so i don't worry
• 1:32:36
  Speaker 5: about that return home spot. That Much, angel reese by, the,
• 1:32:41
  Speaker 5: way right they're the fastest to get to one.
• 1:32:43
  Speaker 6: Thousand rebounds IN.
• 1:32:44
  Speaker 5: The wnba she is a. Good rebounder although she can't
• 1:32:47
  Speaker 5: score or she, can't shoot but her rebounding is quite. Good, Anyway,
• 1:32:53
  Speaker 5: INDIANA yeah i don't worry about the return home. SPOT
• 1:32:57
  Speaker 5: here i think both of these teams are actually better
• 1:32:59
  Speaker 5: than than. The, records Look both Phoenix and indiana have
• 1:33:03
  Speaker 5: had pretty. Difficult schedules they're both better teams than their records.
• 1:33:06
  Speaker 5: Would Suggest but indiana is the better, team here as
• 1:33:09
  Speaker 5: the oddsmakers are telling you they're six and a.
• 1:33:12
  Speaker 6: Half here both teams should be.
• 1:33:13
  Speaker 5: FOCUSED here I think phoenix is starting a road trip
• 1:33:17
  Speaker 5: here off Of. BEATING seattle, i mean Everybody, beats seattle
• 1:33:20
  Speaker 5: but it's Positive for phoenix because they broke a four
• 1:33:22
  Speaker 5: game losing streak with that Win, against seattle so they
• 1:33:25
  Speaker 5: should have a little bit of momentum here starting the.
• 1:33:28
  Speaker 5: ROAD trips i think both teams set up to be.
• 1:33:31
  Speaker 5: FOCUSED here i would Lean to indiana slightly because they
• 1:33:35
  Speaker 5: are the better team and people probably won't want to
• 1:33:37
  Speaker 5: lay six and, a half ALTHOUGH maybe i, don't know
• 1:33:39
  Speaker 5: maybe they will eighty two percent of the Tickets. On
• 1:33:41
  Speaker 5: indiana it Is Still caitlin Clark And sophie cunningham eighty
• 1:33:46
  Speaker 5: seven percent of the Cash.
• 1:33:47
  Speaker 6: ON indiana i.
• 1:33:48
  Speaker 5: Don't Know man indiana does play high, scoring games which
• 1:33:51
  Speaker 5: makes it easier for them to cover these large numbers as,
• 1:33:54
  Speaker 5: a FAVORITE so i don't have a good read on that.
• 1:33:57
  Speaker 6: ONE though i think the other two GAMES that i
• 1:33:58
  Speaker 6: talked about are.
• 1:33:59
  Speaker 5: STRONG opinions i think the best play on the board
• 1:34:02
  Speaker 5: is IN the wnba Is probably connecticut plus. The POINTS
• 1:34:06
  Speaker 5: then i Would say toronto plus, the points and Then
• 1:34:09
  Speaker 5: This dallas. Seattle game i'm not a fan of this,
• 1:34:11
  Speaker 5: game here this last game. Up here seattle is a pretty. Bad,
• 1:34:15
  Speaker 5: team though but that's why they're a.
• 1:34:17
  Speaker 1: Huge.
• 1:34:17
  Speaker 5: Underdog here dallas is playing. Pretty well they're going to
• 1:34:21
  Speaker 5: be a playoff team. This Year probably dallas just Snuck.
• 1:34:24
  Speaker 5: By chicago but, YOU know i like teams where they
• 1:34:27
  Speaker 5: just squeak by as a. Big FAVORITE so I think
• 1:34:30
  Speaker 5: dallas was like an eight to nine point favorite in
• 1:34:32
  Speaker 5: that game and they barely. GOT by i like when
• 1:34:35
  Speaker 5: a team does THAT because i think that sets them
• 1:34:36
  Speaker 5: up to be focused in the. Next game they are
• 1:34:39
  Speaker 5: having to go out west From the central. Time zone,
• 1:34:41
  Speaker 5: YOU know i don't, love that having to go two
• 1:34:43
  Speaker 5: time zones west and play a late. NIGHT game i
• 1:34:46
  Speaker 5: don't really love that for a team's. Biological CLOCKS so
• 1:34:49
  Speaker 5: i don't really think. That's Great although dallas should be
• 1:34:52
  Speaker 5: in a bounced back, Spot here seattle is returning home from,
• 1:34:55
  Speaker 5: the road so that is kind of. A negative seattle
• 1:34:58
  Speaker 5: Went to Portland. And Phoenix the portland not a, big Trip,
• 1:35:01
  Speaker 5: but phoenix, YOU know i mean it's a little bit
• 1:35:04
  Speaker 5: of a longer. Distance there seattle's lost a ton of
• 1:35:07
  Speaker 5: games in. A row seattle's lost ten. Straight games they're a, bad.
• 1:35:11
  Speaker 5: TEAM dude i think they're the second worst Team to
• 1:35:13
  Speaker 5: connecticut in the league return home spot doesn't look that great.
• 1:35:17
  Speaker 5: To me they're not really Gonna, overlook Dallas though dallas
• 1:35:20
  Speaker 5: in fact might overlook them because the one time they played,
• 1:35:23
  Speaker 5: This year dallas destroyed Them in dallas by twenty, three
• 1:35:26
  Speaker 5: Points so dallas might actually. Overlook THEM but i Don't
• 1:35:31
  Speaker 5: want seattle in a return. Home spot we'd have been
• 1:35:33
  Speaker 5: away for half a week.
• 1:35:35
  Speaker 6: OR whatever i.
• 1:35:36
  Speaker 5: DON'T know i don't love the. Spot here dallas could
• 1:35:38
  Speaker 5: be in a bounce back. Spot here i'm staying away from,
• 1:35:41
  Speaker 5: the game but you're probably paying too much of a
• 1:35:43
  Speaker 5: price having to lay nine and a half or Ten with.
• 1:35:46
  Speaker 5: Dallas here seventy nine percent of the tickets sixty three
• 1:35:50
  Speaker 5: percent of the Cash, on dallas so the money Is
• 1:35:52
  Speaker 5: fading dallas in. That game for what. THAT'S worth i
• 1:35:57
  Speaker 5: don't have a good read on. THE game i, don't.
• 1:35:58
  Speaker 5: KNOW man i COULD see i could see arguments for
• 1:36:02
  Speaker 5: both sides in. That one so, That game i'm, staying away.
• 1:36:08
  Speaker 6: All right We Have world cup.
• 1:36:09
  Speaker 5: Action here the first game up at one Pm Is,
• 1:36:11
  Speaker 5: argentina Austria the battle Of.
• 1:36:14
  Speaker 6: The a's this Is, In.
• 1:36:17
  Speaker 5: Arlington texas BOTH teams i think are traveling For this
• 1:36:21
  Speaker 5: austria Just beat jordan three to one in their. FIRST
• 1:36:24
  Speaker 5: match a little bit of a. WEIRD game. I Think
• 1:36:27
  Speaker 5: although austria was the better team in, the game they
• 1:36:29
  Speaker 5: were a. Big favorite they got the. Job done austria
• 1:36:32
  Speaker 5: played this Game in where was? This game this? Was
• 1:36:36
  Speaker 5: in WHY can't i? See it what?
• 1:36:38
  Speaker 3: The?
• 1:36:38
  Speaker 5: HELL dude i know it says. IT somewhere i, hate, THIS.
• 1:36:44
  Speaker 5: Dude espn they should make this easier to. Figure, OUT
• 1:36:49
  Speaker 5: yeah i. DON'T know i don't. KNOW why i don't see.
• 1:36:50
  Speaker 5: It here usually on the, recap page it's. Usually, HERE
• 1:36:54
  Speaker 5: yeah i don't. GET it i don't know why you
• 1:36:56
  Speaker 5: actually should be, over, Here, RIGHT yeah i don't know
• 1:36:59
  Speaker 5: what the hell is going on? With this. My, APOLOGIES
• 1:37:02
  Speaker 5: oh i was on the. Game Castreecap, Santa clara california
• 1:37:05
  Speaker 5: is where. This Was so austria is having to Travel
• 1:37:08
  Speaker 5: from California to texas, for this so a little bit
• 1:37:11
  Speaker 5: of a. TRAVEL spot i am pretty Sure that argentina
• 1:37:14
  Speaker 5: Was In, kansas city so they're coming in a little
• 1:37:17
  Speaker 5: bit of an easier travel spot. For them austria in
• 1:37:21
  Speaker 5: this Game, against jordan it was basically what you think.
• 1:37:24
  Speaker 5: It was they won three. To one austria was the
• 1:37:27
  Speaker 5: better team in. The game it was a little bit
• 1:37:29
  Speaker 5: higher scoring than the expected goals would, tell You but
• 1:37:32
  Speaker 5: austria won the game based on expected goals like somewhere
• 1:37:35
  Speaker 5: closer to a two to zero final or so if
• 1:37:39
  Speaker 5: you round it up and round. It down austria won the.
• 1:37:43
  Speaker 5: Possession battle both teams had the same amount of shots,
• 1:37:45
  Speaker 5: on goal so the game was a little bit maybe
• 1:37:48
  Speaker 5: closer than it looked Slightly and argentina won three to
• 1:37:51
  Speaker 5: not think of Course, against algeria which. Everybody knows messi
• 1:37:55
  Speaker 5: had a hat trick in, the game so that was.
• 1:37:57
  Speaker 5: The difference argentina was a decent sized favored in that
• 1:38:00
  Speaker 5: game got. The win algeria is a better Opponent, than,
• 1:38:05
  Speaker 5: jordan THOUGH so i think this win was a little
• 1:38:07
  Speaker 5: bit more Impressive. For argentina expected goals again expected this
• 1:38:11
  Speaker 5: game to be. Lower scoring it Basically expected argentina to win.
• 1:38:14
  Speaker 5: Like one, nothing here and it is a little bit
• 1:38:17
  Speaker 5: of a red Flag that Algeria. Outpossessed argentina that's. Not
• 1:38:22
  Speaker 5: good although if you Remember Previous, World cup argentina had
• 1:38:26
  Speaker 5: a bad game in their first game and Lost To,
• 1:38:28
  Speaker 5: saudi arabia and then they bounced back and won the.
• 1:38:30
  Speaker 5: Whole Thing so i'm not ready To write argentina. OFF obviously,
• 1:38:34
  Speaker 5: i mean they got, the win but this game was
• 1:38:36
  Speaker 5: not what it looked like on, the Scoreboard except argentina
• 1:38:39
  Speaker 5: did have better chances in. The game Even though algeria
• 1:38:43
  Speaker 5: won the, possession battle they didn't translate that into actual.
• 1:38:46
  Speaker 5: Scoring chances so do with that into what. You WANT
• 1:38:49
  Speaker 5: but i think this game was a little bit more
• 1:38:51
  Speaker 5: misleading Than the. Austria Game so argentina's minus two. Fifteen
• 1:38:56
  Speaker 5: here austria has a more difficult travel spot here a.
• 1:38:58
  Speaker 5: Little bit these games Are, On fox, Fox One fox, Sports, one.
• 1:39:02
  Speaker 6: Telemundo whatever you'll figure.
• 1:39:04
  Speaker 5: It out maybe Looking at austria and, you know on
• 1:39:09
  Speaker 5: the spread or something might be a way to look at,
• 1:39:11
  Speaker 5: this game like Go. WITH austria i don't know what
• 1:39:15
  Speaker 5: the spread is gonna, look, like though if you can
• 1:39:16
  Speaker 5: find them at like plus one and a, half goals
• 1:39:18
  Speaker 5: you'll probably be at minus money on, That though but
• 1:39:21
  Speaker 5: that might be an approach here in. THIS game I. Think,
• 1:39:24
  Speaker 5: argentina yeah it worries me a little Bit that messi
• 1:39:27
  Speaker 5: kind of carried. THE team i don't know if he
• 1:39:29
  Speaker 5: can do that continuously because. He's old, and yeah the
• 1:39:33
  Speaker 5: way that that possession battle looked in that game doesn't
• 1:39:37
  Speaker 5: make me that Confident. In argentina although they might, get
• 1:39:40
  Speaker 5: better they are still a pretty good, team obviously one
• 1:39:43
  Speaker 5: of the top several in this. Entire thing france is
• 1:39:47
  Speaker 5: a huge Favorite. Against iraq france is coming in from
• 1:39:50
  Speaker 5: Playing In, East Rutherford, NEW jersey, i believe so the
• 1:39:54
  Speaker 5: only Travel From new Jersey to philadelphia here really easy Travel.
• 1:39:58
  Speaker 5: For france iraq us coming In, from boston so it's
• 1:40:01
  Speaker 5: an easy travel spot for both. Teams here france is
• 1:40:04
  Speaker 5: a massive favorite there minus. ELEVEN hundred i don't have
• 1:40:08
  Speaker 5: a whole lot to say about, This MATCH like i
• 1:40:11
  Speaker 5: don't really see a great. Angle here France beat senegal three,
• 1:40:14
  Speaker 5: to one pretty Impressive because senegal is actually a. Good
• 1:40:17
  Speaker 5: team the way that this, game, Looked though france winning
• 1:40:21
  Speaker 5: three to one was kind of misleading because there was
• 1:40:25
  Speaker 5: only one goal up through the sixty six minute mark
• 1:40:29
  Speaker 5: was when the first goal, was scored Which was umbape
• 1:40:32
  Speaker 5: scored at the sixty six. Minute mark then we had
• 1:40:35
  Speaker 5: a goal at the eighty two minute mark That put
• 1:40:38
  Speaker 5: france up to zero. To, nil sorry and then the
• 1:40:42
  Speaker 5: other two goals came home past the ninety, minute mark
• 1:40:46
  Speaker 5: so this game was higher scoring than It actually it
• 1:40:49
  Speaker 5: looks higher scoring than it, actually was so maybe there's
• 1:40:53
  Speaker 5: some room to go under in a game. Like TODAY'S
• 1:40:55
  Speaker 5: but i don't know Me because france could just easily
• 1:40:57
  Speaker 5: put up goals in. This One and france still needs
• 1:41:00
  Speaker 5: to win because they're in the same Group as norway
• 1:41:03
  Speaker 5: and they both have three points, right Now so france
• 1:41:06
  Speaker 5: Does if France, beats norway though in the next match
• 1:41:09
  Speaker 5: they're playing each. Other Next if france does, beat Them
• 1:41:12
  Speaker 5: then france will win the group, anyway though so regardless of,
• 1:41:16
  Speaker 5: point differential so maybe they don't really need to focus
• 1:41:19
  Speaker 5: on point. Differential here still pretty impressive that They beat
• 1:41:23
  Speaker 5: senegal three, to One though senegal is a pretty. Good
• 1:41:27
  Speaker 5: team this is probably the most competitive Group, Between, france Senegal.
• 1:41:32
  Speaker 5: And norway they're all, Really. Competitive iraq not so much
• 1:41:38
  Speaker 5: as far as what this game was on. The SCOREBOARD like,
• 1:41:40
  Speaker 5: i said the score, was Misleading like france based on
• 1:41:43
  Speaker 5: the score basically should have won this game like two
• 1:41:46
  Speaker 5: to one or two. To nothing france didn't win the
• 1:41:49
  Speaker 5: possession by, that much only fifty, three percent but they
• 1:41:51
  Speaker 5: had way, more shots so they were creating more chances,
• 1:41:55
  Speaker 5: At least so do with that info what. You want
• 1:41:58
  Speaker 5: but the game was a little bit closer than it
• 1:42:00
  Speaker 5: looked on. The scoreboard it had a higher scoring than.
• 1:42:02
  Speaker 5: It looked iraq Lost to norway four, to ONE but
• 1:42:07
  Speaker 5: i don't know how misleading it. Really was norway kind of.
• 1:42:10
  Speaker 5: Dominated them halan is a very, good Scorer mister viking
• 1:42:14
  Speaker 5: here right here in this picture here one of my favorite. Soccer,
• 1:42:18
  Speaker 5: players actually after Watching that, norway documentary this GAME was
• 1:42:24
  Speaker 5: i guess a little bit misleadingly, high Scoring though norway
• 1:42:28
  Speaker 5: basically was expected to win this game more along the
• 1:42:30
  Speaker 5: lines of three to one or two. To one they
• 1:42:33
  Speaker 5: won the possession battle, fairly easily though had way. More
• 1:42:35
  Speaker 5: chances they were obviously the better. Team there, But, whatever france,
• 1:42:41
  Speaker 5: YOU know, I mean france should win this game Easily.
• 1:42:43
  Speaker 5: Against iraq the total is higher than all the other
• 1:42:46
  Speaker 5: totals at three and, a half which is usually the
• 1:42:49
  Speaker 5: case with mismatches. Like this they Just, expect france who
• 1:42:52
  Speaker 5: does have a good offense and is a really, deep
• 1:42:55
  Speaker 5: team to just expect them to keep. Scoring here so
• 1:42:58
  Speaker 5: even though it looks like maybe you could be looking
• 1:42:59
  Speaker 5: for an. Under Here maybe france eases up a little
• 1:43:03
  Speaker 5: bit later.
• 1:43:04
  Speaker 6: In, the GAME but i wouldn't want to.
• 1:43:05
  Speaker 5: Risk, it plus the osmakers are telling you this should
• 1:43:07
  Speaker 5: be higher scoring than the rest of. These matches the
• 1:43:11
  Speaker 5: most competitive Matchup is Norway and Senegal In, East Rutherford.
• 1:43:15
  Speaker 5: New jersey senegal is actually staying in the. SAME stadium
• 1:43:19
  Speaker 5: i believe they have a little bit of an advantage in.
• 1:43:21
  Speaker 5: That Respect but norway is only coming in From the
• 1:43:23
  Speaker 5: boston Area From gillette Stadiums, from foxboro so still not
• 1:43:28
  Speaker 5: a difficult travel Spot. For, Norway here norway is considered
• 1:43:32
  Speaker 5: to be the. Better team they're at plus one twenty
• 1:43:35
  Speaker 5: on the three, away line but this is considered to
• 1:43:36
  Speaker 5: be a. Close Matchup man senegal is probably at like
• 1:43:42
  Speaker 5: plus one seventy maybe on the three, way line something,
• 1:43:46
  Speaker 5: like that plus one eighty maybe something in.
• 1:43:48
  Speaker 6: That range i'm not entirely sure what it.
• 1:43:50
  Speaker 5: WOULD be i think if you're gonna look at, THIS
• 1:43:53
  Speaker 5: game I think senegal win or draw might be the
• 1:43:56
  Speaker 5: way to look, at this and you'll get it at
• 1:43:57
  Speaker 5: about minus one fifty probably or minus. One forty you'll
• 1:44:01
  Speaker 5: have to pay a little bit of juice. For It
• 1:44:03
  Speaker 5: but senegal to win or draw in THIS game i
• 1:44:07
  Speaker 5: think makes sense to me, BECAUSE people i think are
• 1:44:09
  Speaker 5: gonna Overreact.
• 1:44:10
  Speaker 6: To norway they're pretty hyped up.
• 1:44:11
  Speaker 5: Right now They got, holan whatever they put up a lot,
• 1:44:14
  Speaker 5: of goals but it Was, against.
• 1:44:15
  Speaker 6: Iraq dude iraq is the worst team in this.
• 1:44:17
  Speaker 5: Group easily senegal actually played pretty Competitively, against france, SO
• 1:44:24
  Speaker 5: yeah i think that bodes Well. For senegal they're more battle.
• 1:44:27
  Speaker 5: Tested here senegal also needs this More because norway already has,
• 1:44:32
  Speaker 5: Three points senegal doesn't, have Any so senegal is gonna
• 1:44:36
  Speaker 5: be way more. MOTIVATED here I think i was gonna
• 1:44:37
  Speaker 5: play any of these, GAMES today i Would go senegal
• 1:44:40
  Speaker 5: win or. DRAW here i don't want to actually, do
• 1:44:42
  Speaker 5: it but THAT'S what i. Would do And then jordan
• 1:44:45
  Speaker 5: Is playing algeria in the late game Here In, Santa.
• 1:44:48
  Speaker 5: Clara California, SO jordan, i believe is staying in the,
• 1:44:52
  Speaker 5: same venue so that's an Advantage. To jordan algeria is
• 1:44:57
  Speaker 5: traveling IN from i forget as. A city, i, think
• 1:45:01
  Speaker 5: Yeah so algeria has to travel. Out west that's a
• 1:45:04
  Speaker 5: Negative for algeria that they're having to travel across two
• 1:45:06
  Speaker 5: time zones and adjust to the late, time Zone whereas jordan's.
• 1:45:10
  Speaker 5: Already there algeria is the better team though they're minus
• 1:45:13
  Speaker 5: one ninety on the three, way line so they're expected
• 1:45:16
  Speaker 5: to win, this match but maybe they're favored by a
• 1:45:19
  Speaker 5: little bit too. Much here, you know they, should win
• 1:45:23
  Speaker 5: they are the, better team but the spot doesn't look
• 1:45:26
  Speaker 5: great for. Them necessarily. Travel wise both teams are without
• 1:45:30
  Speaker 5: ANY points i believe.
• 1:45:31
  Speaker 6: Right now so Yeah.
• 1:45:33
  Speaker 5: Because, Algeria yeah algeria Lost, to, argentina Yeah and jordan Lost.
• 1:45:39
  Speaker 5: To austria so both teams are fighting for. Points here
• 1:45:43
  Speaker 5: we'll see. What. Happens man they both kind of need
• 1:45:45
  Speaker 5: to get the three points here to try to do
• 1:45:47
  Speaker 5: something here and try to get one of those because
• 1:45:51
  Speaker 5: they know they're gonna they know they're fighting for third
• 1:45:53
  Speaker 5: place in this, Group basically so both teams will show
• 1:45:56
  Speaker 5: up motivated still and try to get the three. Points
• 1:45:59
  Speaker 5: here because they do that and wind up, in third
• 1:46:02
  Speaker 5: then there's a decent chance they advance to the. Knockout
• 1:46:04
  Speaker 5: round so. We'll see it's gonna get more Interesting on
• 1:46:10
  Speaker 5: wednesday when we have the last match of this round.
• 1:46:13
  Speaker 5: Coming up wednesday has six matches that we have to
• 1:46:16
  Speaker 5: analyze but it's gonna get more interesting at, that, point
• 1:46:19
  Speaker 5: man because we have we're gonna have teams that just
• 1:46:22
  Speaker 5: don't have, any, motivation uh, you know to do anything
• 1:46:25
  Speaker 5: because they've already won their groups and stuff. Like that
• 1:46:27
  Speaker 5: so we're gonna have some interesting motivational conflicts that we
• 1:46:30
  Speaker 5: might be able to take. Advantage of so we, will
• 1:46:32
  Speaker 5: See don't i'm not gonna have any plays, here TODAY
• 1:46:35
  Speaker 5: but i think the best Look is senegal. Winner draw
• 1:46:38
  Speaker 5: that's gonna, do. It man on my plays today are
• 1:46:41
  Speaker 5: all in. Baseball here we, got whoops We Got houston
• 1:46:46
  Speaker 5: toronto under seven and, a half but only If it's Brown,
• 1:46:50
  Speaker 5: Against cease so specify those pitchers and then uh and
• 1:46:55
  Speaker 5: get the under seven and. A half hopefully you could.
• 1:46:57
  Speaker 5: Do that and then if it's going To be bieber or,
• 1:46:59
  Speaker 5: whoever else we'll let it be a no play and leave.
• 1:47:02
  Speaker 5: It alone the other two will. BE plays, i mean
• 1:47:05
  Speaker 5: obviously specify that the starting pictures, must START but i
• 1:47:07
  Speaker 5: think that they all, will here just normal normal, baseball
• 1:47:12
  Speaker 5: stuff Normal day cubs money Line and indians money line
• 1:47:17
  Speaker 5: or the other two, plays HERE which i think we
• 1:47:19
  Speaker 5: get good situational spots plus the better starter in.
• 1:47:22
  Speaker 6: Those games that's gonna.
• 1:47:23
  Speaker 5: Do it Learn it Tone, On twitter Learn it Tone, on,
• 1:47:26
  Speaker 5: instagram like subscribe to the, channel here tell people. About it,
• 1:47:30
  Speaker 5: you know let's boost This, Thing, Apple. Spotify spreaker you
• 1:47:33
  Speaker 5: can check out. The audio we're all over that, place
• 1:47:36
  Speaker 5: too and we're actually doing improved numbers. On audio so
• 1:47:39
  Speaker 5: let's keep. That going let's get more subscribers here and
• 1:47:42
  Speaker 5: let's hit. Five hundred, come on let's get this. Thing
• 1:47:44
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• 1:48:05
  Speaker 5: will get back to it obviously because it's part OF what.
• 1:48:07
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• 1:48:10
  Speaker 5: YouTube if you want to check. That Out loser cast
• 1:48:13
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• 1:48:15
  Speaker 5: next i'm gonna be out, tomorrow night so we'll see. What,
• 1:48:18
  Speaker 5: Happens either i'm gonna be not on the show, tomorrow
• 1:48:21
  Speaker 5: night or we're gonna move it to. Another day i'm
• 1:48:23
  Speaker 5: not sure what we're. Gonna do we'll see what people think.
• 1:48:26
  Speaker 5: About it but subscribe and you'll get notified when we
• 1:48:29
  Speaker 5: go live And The Giants New york Giants g. SPOT
• 1:48:33
  Speaker 5: podcast i keep, plugging IT but i don't know when
• 1:48:35
  Speaker 5: we're gonna. Be back but that's gonna. Do it let's
• 1:48:38
  Speaker 5: have a winning day in. Baseball, today, Man peace but
• 1:48:43
  Speaker 5: don't you.
• 1:48:43
  Speaker 2: Go quiet don't you fade from. The flow your name
• 1:48:47
  Speaker 2: still means. Something new somebody for. A show put the, glass,
• 1:48:52
  Speaker 2: down baby.
• 1:48:54
  Speaker 1: Look. At, me no, hold on hold on nothing, nice.
• 1:49:05
  Speaker 3: Now, hold on, hold on let me pull you that
• 1:49:16
  Speaker 3: lock by HOT but i don't get. The crown, hold
• 1:49:24
  Speaker 3: on hold on and stay with me now