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College Football Playoff Semifinals Picks & Predictions | 2 games! · Winning Cures Everything | College Football

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: We got to go over the CFP Semi Finals and
• 0:04
  Speaker 1: it's the last multi game show of the season. Welcome
• 0:10
  Speaker 1: in Winning Cures Everything. It's a college football podcast. Of course,
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: I'm your host, Gary Seekers at Gary WCEE on all
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: the different socials, most active on x and if you
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: want to reach out to me, the old school way
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: that still works, Gary at Winning Cures Everything dot com.
• 0:26
  Speaker 1: If you want to subscribe during the offseason, we'll be
• 0:29
  Speaker 1: doing some bonus content, some bonus stats, some bonus things
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: to look at with the transfer portal, et cetera. You
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: can do that. Buy me a coffee dot com slash
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: at Winning Cures it's five bucks a month, fifty bucks
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: for the year. And let me go on and tell
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: you so far through the entire season, two hundred and
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: thirty nine wins, two hundred and thirty losses, four pushes,
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: and that's all the way up to the CFP Semi
• 0:54
  Speaker 1: Finals for the Winning Gears Everything platform. Not too shabby
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: through the bowl games and the CFP games included as well,
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: twenty four, seventeen and two in bowl season, so not
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: too shabby. Let's not waste a bunch of time. This
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: is gonna be a shorter one. We've only got two
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: games to discuss, so let's get to the games. Thursday night,
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: January eighth, six thirty pm Central Time, God's Time Zone
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: on ESPN, we got the Verbo Fiesta Bowl with Ole
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: Miss taking on Miami, and I don't know of a
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: lot of people that would have had that matchup for
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  Speaker 1: a CFP game at any point unless it was like
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: the six verses eleven, which if we didn't have two
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: G five's, that's really what this one could have been.
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  Speaker 1: I mean, it might have been Notre Dame, but they
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: might not have switched up Notre Dame. It might who knows.
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: Who knows? The spread is Miami minus three and a
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: half with a total of fifty one and a half
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  Speaker 1: to fifty two and a half depending on the book,
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: but it's pretty much three and a half across the
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: board as of right now on Sunday, which is the
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: only time that I've got to be able to record this.
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: My schedule is insane right now. Right now, the only
• 2:08
  Speaker 1: coach of the six assistants that are following Lane Kiffen
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: to LSU, the only one that is staying through the
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: CFP at least per reports, is Charlie Weiss Junior, the
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  Speaker 1: offensive coordinator. Who knows who's going to end up coming back.
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: I think maybe the running back coach might stay. Who knows.
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: What I do know is Trinidad Chambliss the quarterback and
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  Speaker 1: Kewan Lacy the running back, one of the two best
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: players on the field against Georgia. Absolutely ridiculous what those
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: two were able to do. And Lacey, even with that
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: shoulder injury from the two lane game, looked out standing.
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: Trinidad Champlin, I don't know how you can. There's no
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: structure there. It's like it's very reminiscent of Johnny football
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: stuff Miami. I'm curious because they have a pass rush.
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: Georgie had to simulate pass rush, right, they had to
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: manufacture it. They had to bring guys from different angles
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  Speaker 1: and whatnot. Chambliss is good enough to be able to
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: get out of situations like that against those guys. Is
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: he going to be good enough against Reuben Bain and company.
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: I don't know that. On the other side, Ole Miss,
• 3:19
  Speaker 1: let's go in and look at this. H My projected
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: stat spread has almost favored by two point four. Now,
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: obviously that is with the head coach, and this does
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  Speaker 1: include the Georgia game and the Miami in Ohio State game.
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: My power rating has Miami by one and a half.
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: My last four weeks, which is actually the last four
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  Speaker 1: weeks of the regular season. All the way through, it
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  Speaker 1: would have ole Miss by seventeen point five to nine.
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: I don't get it. It is what it is. With
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: Pete Golding in that bunch, they feel slighted. They feel
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: at some point though, is vengeance going to be able
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  Speaker 1: to get you through all of this? I don't know.
• 4:00
  Speaker 1: We're able to get through TWU lane, that is what
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: it is. You were able to get through Georgia. That's
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  Speaker 1: an opponent you had already seen and you had a
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  Speaker 1: lot of success against them the first go round. Miami
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  Speaker 1: is a different kind of beast right. A lot of
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  Speaker 1: talent on this team. They are number nine in overall
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  Speaker 1: talent per on three. Ole Miss is number twenty. The
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  Speaker 1: thing that keeps winning ole Miss football games is they
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: are number one in special teams efficiency. Now Miami is
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  Speaker 1: number twenty five, but number one special teams efficiency. That
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: means punting is great, kick returns are great, field goals
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  Speaker 1: are great. Like that kid that they've got from Western
• 4:39
  Speaker 1: Kentucky is an absolute banger of a place kicker, just awesome.
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  Speaker 1: So so the numbers kind of favorite ole Miss here,
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  Speaker 1: But how much do you put into it the fact
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  Speaker 1: that and Pete Goling is tired of this, the new
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: head coach of ole Miss, because he was asked about
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: it and he said, we don't know who's going to
• 5:00
  Speaker 1: be here. We've got guys will be fine, Like we
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: got guys that will coach and we will be fine.
• 5:07
  Speaker 1: We know that the offensive coordinator will be there. He
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: is the play caller. They should be eyed. And as
• 5:13
  Speaker 1: long as you've got trend Dad Chandler's back there running
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: around like I'm I'm tired of trying to pick games
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  Speaker 1: based on stats, based on They're not going to have
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: these coaches based on Da da da da. You got
• 5:26
  Speaker 1: an absolute stud at quarterback now, Carson Beck has been awesome,
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  Speaker 1: but he hasn't had to do much. Can Miami keep
• 5:34
  Speaker 1: up with ole Miss scoring the football? Miami on offense
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  Speaker 1: number twenty two in points per scoring opportunity, So they're
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  Speaker 1: pretty good at finishing drives. That's points that you score
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  Speaker 1: on drives where you get a first down inside the
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  Speaker 1: opponent forty. Ole Miss number twenty one defense at allowing
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  Speaker 1: points per scoring opportunity. On the other side, Ole Miss
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  Speaker 1: number thirteen in points per scoring opportunity on offense. Miami
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  Speaker 1: is number two on defense at allowing points for scoring opportunity.
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  Speaker 1: So this is a tight, tight ballgame. Who do you
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  Speaker 1: trust in crunch time. We saw a few mental mistakes
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: from Pete Golding in the game against Georgia, especially at
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  Speaker 1: the end of that first half where they didn't get
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: the field goal off. But Mario Cristobal for years has
• 6:24
  Speaker 1: done this. I mean, what do we expect, right, So
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: this is kind of what we're expecting here. Let's go
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: on and toss this thing on the screen, because I
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: haven't had it up the whole time. I I will
• 6:42
  Speaker 1: go on and tell you Miami's offense has been pretty good.
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  Speaker 1: Number seventeen in offensive success rate, number thirty passing, number
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  Speaker 1: forty rushing and if you look, they are number seven
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  Speaker 1: in PPA per pass, but they are number eighty six
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  Speaker 1: in PPA per rush. Now they're number forty in rushing
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  Speaker 1: success number thirty three offensive line yards. Ole Miss's defense,
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: I don't know if they're gonna be able to stop
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  Speaker 1: the rush. Their number ninety five and PPA allowed per
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  Speaker 1: rush that's predicted points added at their number sixty seven
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  Speaker 1: in yards per rush, but Miami is only number seventy two.
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  Speaker 1: But when it came down to it, Miami had the
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  Speaker 1: dogs on the line of scrimmage against Ohio State, against
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: Texas A and m I think they're gonna be able
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: to handle it against Ole Miss. The question is can
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  Speaker 1: your defense stop them from scoring enough? And I don't
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  Speaker 1: know if that's the case. They're number six in PPA
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  Speaker 1: per pass, they are number fourteen in QBR. Ole Miss
• 7:36
  Speaker 1: is number seven in passing success rate, number six in
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  Speaker 1: passing explosiveness. Now, Miami is really good in all those stats, right,
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  Speaker 1: number nineteen and PPA allowed per pass, number twenty in
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  Speaker 1: yards allowed per attempt, number seventeen and QBR allowed, number
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  Speaker 1: twenty one in passing success rate, number ten in passing
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  Speaker 1: explosiveness allowed, they're number seven and havoc like it's they're
• 7:56
  Speaker 1: really good. Like this is what Corey Heatherman has done
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: with this unit has been outstanding. They hit in the portal,
• 8:06
  Speaker 1: they did good things. But this ole Miss offense is
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  Speaker 1: I mean, they're awesome. They're really good at number ten
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  Speaker 1: in offensive success number seven, passing number thirty three, rushing,
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  Speaker 1: and it's not so much the running as just the
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: plays that break down. Can Miami has played very structured
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: teams and had a lot of success against them. Can
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: you have success against a quarterback that there's just a
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: lot of chemistry between him and his receivers and his blockers.
• 8:38
  Speaker 1: They know what they're doing. So I'm very curious. We
• 8:44
  Speaker 1: got a pace battle here. Ole Miss number eleven in
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  Speaker 1: plays per minute, Miami is number one twenty nine. So
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: Miami likes to shorten the game. If I were Miami,
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: I might would play with a little more pace here.
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: If you've got better athletes, if you've got a better
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: team overall, you should theoretically win more plays than you lose.
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: If you try and shorten the game against ole Miss,
• 9:11
  Speaker 1: there's no telling. So uh, looking at this, I mean
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  Speaker 1: Miami is number three in five factors rank and ole
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  Speaker 1: Misses number fourteen. First half point margin, second half point margin,
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  Speaker 1: it's pretty much a wash. Again, this is a coin flip,
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  Speaker 1: and I'm getting more than a field goal. I don't
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: know how they're gonna do it, but I'm gonna take
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: ole Miss plus the three and a half. Here, are
• 9:39
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• 9:56
  Speaker 1: January ninth in Atlanta, Jaujia the Chick fil A Peach Bowl.
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: That's another CFP semi final. We got Oregon taking on
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  Speaker 1: Indiana this one six thirty pm Central time, God's time
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  Speaker 1: zone on ESPN and Indiana right now favored by four
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  Speaker 1: to four and a half depending on the book, with
• 10:13
  Speaker 1: a total of forty six and a half on this one.
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: And let's take a look at the numbers. Uh, fantastic.
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  Speaker 1: Just this is such a good matchup, and it was
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: great in Eugene earlier. Now Oregon has a chance a
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: little bit of revenge. Their players have been talking about
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: this matchup, specifically since before the CFP began. My numbers
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: have got Indiana favored by three point twenty four, and
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: that's the projected stat spread. My power rating has Oregon
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: by half a point. My last four weeks has Oregon
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: by nine point eighty eight. However, I have no idea
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: what to expect here because a lot of my stuff
• 10:57
  Speaker 1: is based on overall talent, not all of it, because
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: obviously what you do matters, so that's the majority of it.
• 11:08
  Speaker 1: But I still have a lot tied in with my
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: numbers that have to do with talent. And typically over
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: the past fifteen years twenty years that I've been doing this,
• 11:17
  Speaker 1: talent has mattered. But with this Indiana team, they this
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: team averages. The average age of the offensive players for
• 11:31
  Speaker 1: Indiana is twenty two and a half. They have forty
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  Speaker 1: seven players on the roster that are either fourth, fifth
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: or sixth year players. Forty seven. That is outrageous. So
• 11:46
  Speaker 1: they are old, they are experienced, they have a chip
• 11:48
  Speaker 1: on their shoulder they always do. And this team is
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: just whipping Folk. Now, Alabama is not nearly as good
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: as organ, not even close, but Indiana looks like a
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: different kind of beast because they handled this Oregon team
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: in Eugene, and that was with Oregon having a pick
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: six in the game. I mean that would have been
• 12:16
  Speaker 1: thirty to thirteen if they didn't or maybe worse like
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: this Indiana team does not make mistakes. They are incredible
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  Speaker 1: number thirty three in special team's efficiency. Oregon is number
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  Speaker 1: twenty three the on three talent. Overall talent, Indiana's number
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: forty eight. Oregon is number seven. But again I don't
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: know what that means. It is what it is. I
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: guess five factors rank Indiana's number two, Oregon is number five.
• 12:42
  Speaker 1: If you do five factors plus talent, Indiana drops to
• 12:45
  Speaker 1: number twelve. Oregon is number one. My problem there is
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: again Indiana's number two, and just because they're star ratings
• 12:56
  Speaker 1: and whatever else don't match up, that doesn't seem to
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: make much of a difference because they are insanely experienced.
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: As far as PPA margin on the season, Indiana is
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: number one, Oregon is number three. Indiana number three. PPA
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: per drive on offense, Oregon number eight PPA allowed per
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  Speaker 1: drive on defense, Oregon number ten PPA per drive on offense,
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: Indiana number seven PPA allowed per drive on defense. Starting off,
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: when Indiana has the ball, they are number one in
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: points per scoring opportunity. They finish basically every drive. You
• 13:31
  Speaker 1: cannot stop them. It's outrageous. Oregon's defense is number sixty
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: one in points allowed per scoring opportunity. On the other
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: side of the ball, Oregon number thirty five in points
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: per scoring opportunity on offense. Indiana's defense is number one,
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: so who can finish drives? It is clearly the Hoosiers.
• 13:51
  Speaker 1: As far as red zone, Indiana number seventeen in offensive
• 13:56
  Speaker 1: red zone conversion percentage. They are number fourteen in offensive
• 13:58
  Speaker 1: red zone touchdown rate. But they're also incredibly explosive, so
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: even on times that they score, it's not always from
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: inside the red zone, because they are number thirty one
• 14:12
  Speaker 1: in rushing explosiveness, number nine in passing explosiveness. They've got
• 14:16
  Speaker 1: wide receivers for days. They're awesome. On the other side,
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: Oregon number sixty eight in offensive red zone conversion percentage,
• 14:24
  Speaker 1: number forty seven in offensive red zone touchdown rate. Indiana's defense,
• 14:28
  Speaker 1: by the way, number one in defensive red zone touchdown
• 14:31
  Speaker 1: rate allowed. Oregon's defense number one twelve in defensive red
• 14:36
  Speaker 1: zone touchdown rate allowed. I'm seeing a lot of things
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: that point to the Hoosiers here. There is a reason
• 14:42
  Speaker 1: why they are favored by four, even though my numbers
• 14:45
  Speaker 1: would have Oregon, would have me going with Oregon. I
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: don't know how you pick against this Indiana team. I
• 14:56
  Speaker 1: don't get it. I don't know how they do it.
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: It doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me.
• 15:00
  Speaker 1: But they have a mentality that I am insanely jealous of.
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: If my team could play like that, and they used
• 15:07
  Speaker 1: to like the joyless murder ball that everybody's talked about
• 15:11
  Speaker 1: for years. At this point, that's what Indiana has. It's
• 15:16
  Speaker 1: pretty wild. So Indiana number two in offensive success rate,
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: Oregon number fourteen in defensive success rate, Oregon's offense number
• 15:24
  Speaker 1: thirteen in success rate, and Indiana number six in defensive
• 15:29
  Speaker 1: success rate. It's I don't see how Oregon with this
• 15:36
  Speaker 1: travel with everything else, because they had to fly to
• 15:41
  Speaker 1: Miami and then back to Eugene, Oregon, and now they're
• 15:45
  Speaker 1: going all the way back across to another time zone
• 15:48
  Speaker 1: to Atlanta. Indiana is just hopping right down. That's a
• 15:53
  Speaker 1: quick flight, that's easy. I gotta go Hoosiers. Indiana minus four.
• 16:01
  Speaker 1: I'm going against the number. Uh. I don't know how
• 16:04
  Speaker 1: they're gonna do it, but I think there is a
• 16:09
  Speaker 1: world where we have Indiana and ole Miss playing for
• 16:11
  Speaker 1: national championship. How crazy is this? How crazy is this?
• 16:16
  Speaker 1: Indiana minus four is the play all right? To recap
• 16:21
  Speaker 1: what we have done for the CFP semi finals, ole
• 16:24
  Speaker 1: Miss plus three and a half Indiana minus four. Whoa,
• 16:31
  Speaker 1: this is wild. This is such a crazy playoff, Like
• 16:36
  Speaker 1: this is what everybody's been talking about forever. Oh, we
• 16:39
  Speaker 1: have to have twelve teams, we have to have more.
• 16:41
  Speaker 1: It's it's not so much the giving twelve teams a
• 16:45
  Speaker 1: chance thing. It is the portal which all of these
• 16:51
  Speaker 1: teams have a ton of portal starters, a lot of
• 16:54
  Speaker 1: transfer starters. The nil stuff comes into play. It's just
• 17:00
  Speaker 1: nuts not to mention the fact that all four of
• 17:03
  Speaker 1: the head coaches of the semi final teams used to
• 17:06
  Speaker 1: be Nick Saban assistants. And the one team that was
• 17:09
  Speaker 1: in the playoff that didn't have a Nick Saban assistant
• 17:12
  Speaker 1: as their head coach was Alabama, so that Crimson Tide
• 17:16
  Speaker 1: carcass had been picked clean. Good gracious. Well, we'll do
• 17:21
  Speaker 1: more on the audio podcast this week. But I certainly
• 17:24
  Speaker 1: appreciate you all for being here. Thank you for subscribing.
• 17:26
  Speaker 1: If you haven't already do that, go ahead and like
• 17:28
  Speaker 1: the video and jump in the comments. Let me know
• 17:31
  Speaker 1: your picks on these games, because anything could happen at
• 17:35
  Speaker 1: this point. Who freaking knows? Who knows? Buy mecoffee dot
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  Speaker 1: five star review, and of course right here subscribe to
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  Speaker 1: the channel. And we are gonna have a lot more
• 17:50
  Speaker 1: off season coverage once the season ends, but we still
• 17:54
  Speaker 1: have two of these games and then the National Championship
• 17:57
  Speaker 1: to gain or a game to go, so I am
• 17:59
  Speaker 1: excited about it. You guys, take care of yourself, take
• 18:02
  Speaker 1: care of each other. God bless college football, and hopefully
• 18:06
  Speaker 1: all of your tickets cash this week. Thanks for listening
• 18:09
  Speaker 1: to Winning Cures Everything. Subscribe, leave a review or comment,
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