E104: Professor Robin Dillon-Merrill Part 1: Near Misses & Confusing Luck with Resilience
Do we routinely mistake good luck with systemic resilience – until something blows up?
Today I speak with Professor Robin Dillon-Merrill (Georgetown University, McDonough School of Business), who breaks down her 20+ years of research on decision-making under risk, outcome bias, and how organizations misinterpret near misses.
We discuss:
• The differences between resilient vs vulnerable near misses: How the perceived ‘margin of safety’ desensitizes organizations to risk when luck is the primary reason failure was averted.
• Managing outcome bias: Why leaders who experience lucky successes are…
The skinny
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