Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 323 - 7/25/25 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

Transcript

Episode 323 - 7/25/25 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

• 0:18
  Hello, and welcome to episode 323 of the All Systems Go sports
• 0:24
  Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
• 0:27
  I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on, everyone?
• 0:35
  Happy Friday. Our work week has officially
• 0:38
  come to an end. That's right.
• 0:39
  Another big weekend ahead here, guys.
• 0:41
  Before you know it, I mentioned this yesterday, but we have an
• 0:44
  NFL game to bet on, believe it or not, probably creeping up on
• 0:47
  you a bit, crept up, crept up on me a bit, but it is the Chargers
• 0:51
  and the Lions in the annual Hall of Fame game.
• 0:54
  It's actually taking place a week from yesterday.
• 0:57
  I mentioned a little bit about the line movement and kind of
• 0:59
  what we're seeing so far. Again, it's kind of early.
• 1:02
  It's a very short number. It's basically Detroit favored
• 1:05
  by about a point. We have seen this total, very
• 1:08
  low total. You're going to see this anytime
• 1:10
  it comes to the Hall of Fame game because it's a very vanilla
• 1:12
  offense and you got a lot of backup.
• 1:14
  So it's always a low total, but this total is 33.
• 1:17
  But some books have gotten down to 32 1/2.
• 1:20
  So historically we have seen in this game a lot of Hall of Fame
• 1:23
  favorites straight up do very well.
• 1:26
  Last 18 Hall of Fame games, the favorite is 12 and six straight
• 1:30
  up totals. Usually you see unders do well,
• 1:33
  but they're basically even about 9:00 and 9:00 over the last 18
• 1:37
  seasons or so. And that's pretty much all the
• 1:39
  data that I have in my database. So we'll track this one.
• 1:43
  Maybe we'll have a play on it, maybe we won't.
• 1:44
  But I think the the greater point here is that NFL college
• 1:47
  football, it is very, very close.
• 1:50
  And actually, the Hall of Fame game is on the 31st, but we do
• 1:53
  have, not too far away, about a little less than a month on
• 1:58
  August 23rd, the opening of college football.
• 2:02
  So if you want to get a little bit of a head start or at least
• 2:04
  start looking at these lines, you know, I always mention it,
• 2:07
  but odds logic has all these games posted.
• 2:10
  We already have line movement on some of these games.
• 2:12
  I'm looking right now at Iowa State, K State, where K State is
• 2:15
  -3 1/2 down to three. And again, you can maybe find
• 2:19
  the hook there if if you like the dog.
• 2:20
  I'm not saying I like one side or the other.
• 2:23
  I would note, I would mention to Stanford and Hawaii those four
• 2:26
  early games. We have seen a dog to fave line
• 2:28
  move toward Hawaii going from plus 2 1/2 to -1 1/2.
• 2:32
  Again, none of these are official bets for me yet, but
• 2:33
  the whole point being is that if you want to start to get ready,
• 2:37
  get excited, get acclimated, start looking at some of these
• 2:39
  numbers and how they move and start tracking them much more
• 2:42
  closely. You can do it with the odds
• 2:44
  logic live odds page. So remember 7 day free trial,
• 2:48
  50% off your first month, It's 99 bucks a month if you want to
• 2:51
  keep it. But with that 50% off first
• 2:53
  month, it'll be about 49 bucks and again, 99 bucks.
• 2:56
  I know it's kind of a lot of money, but relative to the other
• 3:00
  odds logic or the competitors here, you have a lot of live
• 3:03
  odds pages that are 300 a month, 600 bucks a month.
• 3:06
  So I think it's the best round and the best value, but give it
• 3:08
  a shot by going to this specific link Odds logic.com/josh 123.
• 3:15
  So that being said, guys looking quickly back toward yesterday
• 3:19
  after a three and O Tuesday, 1:00 and 2:00 Wednesday, another
• 3:22
  one and two yesterday, Thursday did have a nice one there with
• 3:25
  the the Cardinals. They actually got down early in
• 3:28
  that game and their bats absolutely went crazy.
• 3:31
  Ended up holding on nine to seven.
• 3:33
  But the Houston Astros let us down good sharp steam in their
• 3:36
  favor. They lose to Severino, who's the
• 3:38
  worst since 2018, the worst dog pitcher in baseball.
• 3:42
  But when you know it, he pitches well last night.
• 3:44
  And then the one that was kind of frustrating was the angels
• 3:48
  because public got the last laugh there.
• 3:50
  I guess it was easy as hey take Seattle as a dog getting some
• 3:53
  plus money with a better record. But Angels had a one nothing
• 3:56
  lead. Give up a Homer to Rose Arena
• 3:58
  and then Julio Rodriguez went yard.
• 4:01
  Angels had a shot in the bottom of the ninth bases loaded and
• 4:04
  Sean UL hit a line drive right to left field the Rose Arena so
• 4:08
  came up short on that one. And Kikuchi, who's been great,
• 4:11
  especially at home, wasn't his best last night.
• 4:13
  So either way, 1 and 2 -, 1.3 units, you guys know the drill.
• 4:17
  Let's see if we can finish up the week strong and post a
• 4:20
  winning day for today. Now looking toward today's
• 4:23
  sweats. I think one thing that was kind
• 4:24
  of frustrating yesterday, my buddy Da Rush DM me on Twitter
• 4:28
  and you said, man, what's up with these these Thursdays where
• 4:31
  at least we get 7 or 8 games. Yesterday it was only 5, so
• 4:33
  didn't have much to choose from. Luckily, hopefully the odds are
• 4:36
  in our favor because there's 15 games overall tonight and I did
• 4:40
  find 3 that kind of fit our our model pretty well here.
• 4:44
  So couple of them are very, very short.
• 4:46
  Pick em short favorite plays. We got a couple really good
• 4:49
  sharp mush edge on one of them from our friends at Juice Reel.
• 4:52
  We do have a later game here with a massive steam move that
• 4:55
  I'm hoping will come through for the team.
• 4:56
  So 3 pack overall. Let's try to go 2 and one finish
• 4:59
  off our week on a hot note. So let's waste no more time.
• 5:03
  I have a couple early games for you.
• 5:04
  It's not too early, but 7:10 PM Eastern Time first pitch, let's
• 5:08
  go to Detroit Rock City where the Tigers are hosting the the
• 5:11
  red hot, I should say Toronto Blue Jays.
• 5:14
  So going in and out we got the Jays 61 and 42, nearly 20 games
• 5:18
  above 500. Crazy.
• 5:20
  Playing very well this year. They dominated the series opener
• 5:22
  last night 11 to 4 coming through as a + 120 Rd. dog.
• 5:27
  So it's only three match. The Jays are going with the
• 5:29
  ready Jose Barrios. He is 6 and four with a 3.87 ERA
• 5:33
  on the year. Tigers, meanwhile, who are 60
• 5:35
  and 44, again, they've been great, but they've kind of
• 5:38
  tailed off a bit. I think they're one in six, one
• 5:41
  and seven since the break, something like that.
• 5:44
  But they are going with the righty Kaider Montero.
• 5:49
  He's four and two with a 4.28 ERA.
• 5:52
  So what have you seen across the market?
• 5:53
  Will this game open? Very interesting open with
• 5:55
  Toronto listed as a short -115 Rd. favorite.
• 5:59
  Detroit a -, 1 O 5 home dog. And the public is saying don't
• 6:03
  even think about it. Just keep riding Toronto.
• 6:05
  They're six and one since the break again, they win tonight.
• 6:08
  They're legit 20 games over 500. They've been really hot last
• 6:12
  about month, month and a half. But even though you're getting
• 6:15
  67% big national public book DraftKings 67 percent 2/3 of
• 6:20
  bets on the Jays, we haven't seen the Jays go -115 up to -120
• 6:25
  -, 130, which is what you would expect would happen if you're
• 6:28
  getting such lopsided support. Odds makers, you know, increase,
• 6:31
  make the price more expensive on the popular side to hopefully
• 6:35
  limit their acts, limit their liability, and give out the dog
• 6:38
  at a better price. That hasn't happened.
• 6:41
  Even though 2/3 of bets are on Toronto, the sign is completely
• 6:44
  flipped toward Detroit. So Detroit only getting 33% of
• 6:48
  bets, money line tickets at DraftKings.
• 6:50
  But we've seen the Tigers go from a -1 O 5 home dog.
• 6:55
  It's now a -115 home favorite. So you guys know what that
• 6:59
  means. Dog to fave line move.
• 7:03
  Not only dog to fave line move, but a dog to fave reverse line
• 7:05
  move. Because again, if you're getting
• 7:07
  80% of bets, you go dog to fave. Yeah, that's notable.
• 7:10
  But I'd prefer if you were unpopular and getting that dog
• 7:13
  to fave line move, which is what's happened here on Detroit.
• 7:17
  Now if we dive a little bit deeper, go out to Vegas at
• 7:19
  Circa, the Tigers are only getting 26% of money line bets,
• 7:24
  but nearly 60% of the money line dollars.
• 7:27
  So we got the overall move toward Detroit, contrarian at
• 7:31
  DraftKings, but also low bets, higher dollars at Circa telling
• 7:34
  us the bigger, sharper wages there from the wise guys in the
• 7:36
  desert. Also going with the line move
• 7:39
  toward Detroit. Now we do have three system
• 7:41
  matches here lighting up on Detroit.
• 7:43
  We have home favorites who made the playoffs the previous year
• 7:46
  taking in line movement in their favor.
• 7:48
  Those teams are two O 6 and one 1165 percent, 3% ROI.
• 7:52
  And this one, it's kind of a mouthful, but home favorites who
• 7:56
  made the playoffs the previous year in the second game of the
• 7:58
  series after losing the opener and getting at least $0.05 of
• 8:02
  steam in their favor, those teams are 22 and 1069% with a
• 8:07
  10% ROI. Then if you dig a little bit
• 8:09
  deeper, Tigers are 27 and 15 as a home favorite.
• 8:12
  That's a 64% win rate, but in particular as a home favorite
• 8:17
  playing receiving at least $0.05 of steam in their favor.
• 8:20
  So they're they're at home, they're expected to win and the
• 8:22
  lines moving in their direction. They're 23 and eight this year,
• 8:26
  74% with a 16% ROI. Detroit would have just kind of
• 8:31
  some classic non division favorite value, lack of
• 8:33
  familiarity benefiting, quote UN quote.
• 8:35
  The better team was expected to win and Kyder Montero has
• 8:38
  actually been decent at home 3 and O 3.89 ERA and Burrios, even
• 8:43
  though his numbers on the year are pretty good, you know, 3.87
• 8:47
  ERA, he has struggled recently. In the month of July, he has
• 8:51
  made four starts, 7.11 ERA, allowing 15 earned runs in 19
• 8:56
  innings pitched. So I think the obvious thing is
• 8:58
  take Toronto. They're red hot.
• 9:00
  Detroit is really struggled since the break, but really the
• 9:04
  markets telling us the opposite. So it looks like maybe to to me
• 9:07
  a buy low sell high play on Detroit to hopefully get back on
• 9:10
  track. But I'm going to follow the
• 9:11
  sharp reverse line move. I'm going to fade the trendy dog
• 9:14
  Jays. I got Detroit here, guys.
• 9:16
  And by the way, I did open the juice reel app and noticed a 16%
• 9:22
  sharp mush edge on the Tigers. So it tells us that the wise
• 9:25
  guys like yourselves listening who have downloaded juice reel
• 9:28
  and synced up their books, they're going with Detroit here
• 9:31
  as well. So give me the Detroit Tigers.
• 9:33
  I got a -, 110 at FanDuel a little bit earlier today.
• 9:36
  Looks like they're -112 at FanDuel right now, the best
• 9:39
  price. But again, shop around because
• 9:41
  some books are up to -115 But we can get Detroit.
• 9:44
  That'd be nice because that is basically a pickup number.
• 9:48
  Next one for you, 7:10 PM Eastern Time, first pitch.
• 9:50
  Let's go out to Cincinnati where the Red Legs are hosting the
• 9:54
  Tampa Bay Rays now setting the stage for this one.
• 9:57
  We have the Rays 53 and 50 on the year.
• 10:00
  Did just lose two or three against the White Sox.
• 10:03
  That's that's tough losing the series finale 11 to 9 as a big
• 10:07
  -225 home favorite. Meanwhile, the Reds same record
• 10:11
  53 and 50 also just lost two or three to the Nationals, but did
• 10:15
  avoid the sweep. They won that series finale 5.
• 10:17
  Nothing as a -130 Rd. favorite. So pitching match up here for
• 10:21
  this interleague series opener, we have the Rays going with the
• 10:24
  ready Zach Litelle. He's 8 and seven with a 3.53
• 10:28
  ERA. Reds, meanwhile, going to fellow
• 10:30
  ready Nick Martinez. He's 8:00 and 9:00 with a 4.73
• 10:34
  ERA. So what have you seen across the
• 10:36
  market here? Well, I think if you like
• 10:38
  Detroit, you like Cincinnati because it's kind of a similar
• 10:42
  line move. We open this game.
• 10:43
  Tampa Bay favored around a -, 120 Rd. favorite.
• 10:46
  Cincinnati around a + 100 home dog and the public, they're not
• 10:51
  quite as bullish on Tampa as they are in Toronto.
• 10:53
  Remember, Toronto is getting 67% of bets, but you are getting 55%
• 10:58
  of bets on Tampa Bay. But Tampa Bay hasn't gone -120
• 11:02
  up to -130 no, no, no. This line has crashed down away
• 11:06
  from Tampa towards Cincy and we're basically now at a pick em
• 11:09
  game -110 both sides. So we've seen even though Tampa
• 11:13
  is getting 55% of tickets, they fall in -120 down to -110 and
• 11:18
  we've seen that line simultaneously move toward the
• 11:20
  Reds plus 100 to -110. So while Detroit was a dog to
• 11:24
  fave line move, this is looking like a dog to pick em reverse
• 11:28
  line move in favor of Cincinnati.
• 11:31
  Now if you look at DraftKings in particular, only 45% of money
• 11:34
  line tickets on the Reds, but they are taking into account
• 11:37
  nearly 60% of dollars. So it tells us we got a lot of
• 11:40
  national wise guy, respected money, low bets, higher dollars,
• 11:44
  leaning here on Cincinnati. I do have some system matches.
• 11:48
  You know, it's you can't really technically call Cincinnati a
• 11:50
  favorite because it's a -110 pick em.
• 11:53
  But there would be a, if they do flip to an official -115 or more
• 11:57
  favorite, you will have a lot of system matches here.
• 11:59
  But Even so, at a pick em, I got a couple lit up on the Reds,
• 12:03
  both teams coming off a day off, which is the case here.
• 12:06
  Take the team getting line movement in their direction that
• 12:09
  those teams are 84 and 5660%, 5% ROI.
• 12:15
  And if both teams are coming off a day off and the team is
• 12:17
  getting $0.05 or more of line movement.
• 12:19
  So the first system was just it's got to move at least one
• 12:21
  cent in your direction, make it a little bit bigger, 5 or more
• 12:24
  cents in your direction. Those teams improved to 77 and
• 12:28
  4364 percent, 10% ROI. Again, that would match with
• 12:33
  Cincinnati. You'll get over the last 10
• 12:35
  games, Reds have played better than the Rays.
• 12:37
  They've gone six and four. They're hitting two 66310 team
• 12:41
  ERA. On the other hand, Rays three
• 12:43
  and seven over the last 10, only hitting 231 with a 4.49 team
• 12:47
  ERA. Lastly, Martinez.
• 12:50
  The Reds are five and one in this last six starts.
• 12:53
  Hopefully pitches well here for tonight.
• 12:56
  But again, Publix leading Tampa, but the line hasn't moved toward
• 12:59
  Tampa. It's moved down to a pick em
• 13:02
  towards Cincinnati. This looks like a sharp reverse
• 13:04
  line move dog to pick em. Wise guy playing on the Reds.
• 13:09
  So I'll be rooting for the Red legs here tonight, guys.
• 13:11
  I got sensei -1 O 8 a little bit earlier today at FanDuel.
• 13:15
  Again, might still be available. A lot of books are now basically
• 13:19
  -110 both sides. But either way, let's go Reds.
• 13:23
  Last bit of the night game with the biggest steam move or one of
• 13:26
  the biggest steam moves of the day.
• 13:28
  Interleague matchup, 8:10 PM Eastern Time.
• 13:31
  Let's go out to the Midwest. Look at the Minnesota Twinkies
• 13:34
  hosting the Washington Nationals now coming into it, the Nats are
• 13:38
  41 and 6120 games below 500. But as we just mentioned a
• 13:42
  second ago, they did take two or three against the Reds.
• 13:45
  Couldn't get the sweep though. They lost that series finale 5.
• 13:47
  Nothing as a + 110 home dog. Meanwhile the Twinkies 49 and
• 13:52
  53, remember they had that. What was it?
• 13:53
  A 12 game win streak or I don't know, 15 game win streak?
• 13:56
  They had that crazy one earlier kind of come back down to earth.
• 13:59
  They've dropped two or three recently to the Dodgers.
• 14:02
  Lost the series finale 4 to 3 as a + 185 Rd. dog.
• 14:07
  So pitching match up here. We got the Nats going with the
• 14:10
  lefty Mackenzie Gore. He's 4:00 and 9:00 with a 3.59
• 14:14
  ERA. You know the Twins going with
• 14:15
  the righty Zebby Matthews one and two 6.26 ERA.
• 14:19
  What are we sitting across the market here?
• 14:22
  Well, this came open with Minnesota listed around a -, 135
• 14:25
  home favorite. Washington around a + 115 home
• 14:29
  Rd. dog. And sharps have absolutely
• 14:31
  pounded the Twinkies. Twinkies we've seen get steamed
• 14:35
  up -135 all the way up to around -155 -, 160.
• 14:41
  Some shops even as high as -165 -, 170.
• 14:44
  So it's really been nothing but big, big movement in favor of
• 14:47
  the Twins. Tells me a lot of money poured
• 14:49
  in on Minnesota here. Now if you look at Circa out in
• 14:53
  Vegas, 60% of money line bets, but 98% of money line dollars
• 14:59
  coming in on the Twins. So a really good low bets higher
• 15:02
  dollar sharp split telling us that Vegas wise guy money is
• 15:05
  going with Minnesota, which aligns with that steam in favor
• 15:08
  of the Twins. Then I have 4 system matches lit
• 15:11
  up here on on Minnesota when both teams are coming off a
• 15:15
  loss, which is the case here. Take the team getting $0.10 or
• 15:18
  more of line movement in their favor.
• 15:20
  That system is 42 and 2464 percent, 10% ROI.
• 15:25
  Both teams coming off a day off also matches here.
• 15:29
  Take the favorite 94 and 52, also 64 percent, 5% ROI.
• 15:34
  Both teams missed the playoffs the previous year.
• 15:36
  Take the interleague home favorite 69 and 3865% with a 6%
• 15:41
  ROI. Now Gore, I remember he was part
• 15:45
  of that big deal for Juan Soto. He did make the All Star game.
• 15:48
  I like Gore, but in the month of July he's regressed a little
• 15:52
  bit. 7.2 for ERA and three July starts, giving up eleven runs
• 15:56
  and 13 and .2 innings pitched. Minnesota does have the better
• 16:00
  bullpen. They're not amazing. 4.25 ERA.
• 16:03
  But if you look at Washington dead last 5.74 ERA.
• 16:07
  So hey, hope Twins get out to a lead and and carry that lead.
• 16:10
  But if we got to light up the bullpen, hey, the opportunity
• 16:13
  hopefully is there. Then you look at some home Rd.
• 16:15
  splits. The Twins are 28 and 20 at home.
• 16:18
  Eight games below above 500. Nats 20 and 30 on the road, 10
• 16:24
  games below 500. And oh, by the way, when the
• 16:26
  Twins are a big favorite -160 or more, there's seven and one this
• 16:31
  year at home. That's an 88% win rate, 31% ROI.
• 16:37
  So massive steam on the Twinkies.
• 16:39
  Good bet splits, tons of good system matches here.
• 16:42
  Didn't even mention the Inter League favorite system match.
• 16:44
  Again, lack of familiarity benefiting quote UN quote the
• 16:46
  better team. Now this looks like a spot here
• 16:49
  where wise guys have really taken a position.
• 16:51
  And I want to be with the sharps.
• 16:53
  So I'll be riding the the Twins here.
• 16:55
  I got Minnesota at kind of a bad -164 I did notice one book is
• 16:59
  -158 at FanDuel, but make myself feel a little bit better.
• 17:05
  Bet MGM is -170 for Minnesota. So again, shop around, try to
• 17:09
  find that best cheapest price. So Detroit, Cincinnati and
• 17:13
  Minnesota, we find a way to get two out of three each got a
• 17:16
  winning day. Of course you guys know by now
• 17:18
  that is the goal. So that about does it for
• 17:21
  episode 323 of the All Systems Go Sports Betting podcast,
• 17:25
  powered by Rhythm. This is the part of the pod
• 17:27
  where we wrap things up and I'll leave you with a few things.
• 17:30
  It's like, you know, the end of a a day at school, you know, you
• 17:33
  got to let you know what the homework is, what you got to do
• 17:36
  all that. But this is really easy
• 17:38
  homework, I promise you, and hopefully it'll be beneficial.
• 17:41
  But First off, I want to thank everyone for listening to the
• 17:43
  pod. I know it's the summer months.
• 17:45
  You got a lot going on. You're probably getting ready
• 17:47
  for football, but obviously this is, you know, considered the
• 17:51
  sports betters vacation or a lot of betters kind of, you know,
• 17:54
  maybe not grind baseball like we do every day, but I kind of just
• 17:57
  say wait, you know, wake me up when it gets the football
• 17:59
  season. So thank you all for listening
• 18:01
  and grinding baseball with me on the pod during the dog days of
• 18:05
  summer. If you do enjoy the pod, if you
• 18:07
  value the insights, hopefully you you know, when at least kind
• 18:11
  of hear the pod before you maybe make a bet or get some insights
• 18:15
  into a bet. Well, if you guys wanted to give
• 18:17
  this pod a five star review on Spotify or iTunes you would make
• 18:20
  me very happy If you want to leave a nice comment under the
• 18:23
  review section. Hey, I enjoy the the daily the
• 18:26
  daily numbers, insights, breakdowns.
• 18:28
  I can't really get them anywhere else.
• 18:29
  Just something easy like that would would go a long way if you
• 18:32
  want to click the follow button that way you get alerted to each
• 18:35
  pod as soon as it drops each day or if you want to recommend the
• 18:39
  pod to a friend. Word of mouth is always a great
• 18:42
  way for someone to get kind of more interested in something if
• 18:45
  it's coming from someone that they respect or they value their
• 18:49
  insight. Hey, you know, you're probably
• 18:50
  more in in more likely to give it a shot next.
• 18:54
  If you enjoy the style of betting breakdown, data-driven,
• 18:56
  sharp contrarian betting, betting based on Nope, not your
• 19:00
  heart, your gut instinct, your bias, because I don't need to
• 19:03
  tell you. If you bet with that, your heart
• 19:05
  and your bias, you're really not going to win very often.
• 19:08
  You may think you will, but what you expect to happen usually
• 19:11
  doesn't happen. So that's the whole point of
• 19:13
  leaving your bias at the door and trying to bet based on what
• 19:16
  the market is telling us, what people much sharper and smarter
• 19:19
  than us are doing and trying to go against the you know, the
• 19:22
  average Joe's drunk at the bar lay in the favorite and
• 19:25
  parlaying everything. But if this style of betting has
• 19:27
  appealed to you, you've seen a little bit of the benefits to
• 19:30
  it. You want to learn more about
• 19:31
  data-driven betting or maybe of someone in your life who wants
• 19:34
  to get into sports betting, doesn't know where to begin or
• 19:37
  bets and loses a lot and could use some data-driven tips.
• 19:40
  If any of that is the case, I'd love for you guys to go to
• 19:42
  Amazon.com and type in the Everything Guide to Sports
• 19:46
  Betting. It's the first book ever wrote.
• 19:48
  I'm very proud of it. It's great for new betters,
• 19:50
  intermediate betters. It's got a lot of great system
• 19:52
  matches as well, but it really lays out the sharp contrarian
• 19:55
  blueprint. It's got everything I've learned
• 19:56
  in the industry, how lines are set, how and why they move, how
• 19:59
  to read line movement, how to locate sharp action, how to
• 20:02
  place them in person or online, how to shop for the best line,
• 20:05
  how to set up a bankroll management plan, chapters on all
• 20:07
  the major sports. It's all included in the
• 20:09
  Everything Guide to Sports Betting.
• 20:11
  Now, while you're getting the everything got on Amazon, stay
• 20:13
  on Amazon and then you may not even have to click another tab.
• 20:16
  Just Scroll down. You might see another
• 20:18
  recommended book there and hopefully it is the NFL Sharp
• 20:21
  Betting Playbook because the NFL Sharp Betting Playbook is my
• 20:24
  second book. It comes out August 12th.
• 20:26
  We are very close to the date, debut date and I cannot wait to
• 20:30
  get in your hands. See see you guys, you know, kind
• 20:33
  of hold it and ingest it and get some of these insights because
• 20:36
  I've been working on this for over three years and I'm very
• 20:39
  proud of it and it's kind of surreal.
• 20:40
  It's the second time I've written a book and gone through
• 20:43
  the process of launching in a book and it's a it's it's I got
• 20:46
  to tell you it's a pretty cool process because you work a lot
• 20:49
  and like, man, will I ever finish this whatever get, you
• 20:52
  know, published and then you know before you know what it's
• 20:54
  here. So pretty cool.
• 20:56
  But if you want to support the pod, let me know you appreciate
• 20:59
  the pod. If you want to get a leg up on
• 21:00
  your NFL betting, it's literally everything I I've come to know
• 21:04
  about how to bet the NFL from a data-driven perspective.
• 21:06
  So grab the NFL sharp betting playbook, grab the everything
• 21:10
  guide to sports betting, bring them to the the sports book.
• 21:12
  I'll sign them for you. I'll buy you a beer or truly or
• 21:15
  ginger ale. We'll sweat some of these
• 21:17
  baseball games together tonight. Next, have you downloaded Rhythm
• 21:21
  and juice real yet? Well, if you haven't, what are
• 21:23
  you waiting for? There are two fantastic apps
• 21:25
  that help me when they're going to help you win.
• 21:28
  Obviously, Rhythm does a great job of powering this pod and I
• 21:31
  do have some announcements with Rhythm coming soon, so stay
• 21:33
  tuned. Hopefully next week I'll tell
• 21:34
  you about that. But Rhythm just debuted their
• 21:38
  new power trends. They had them for player props,
• 21:42
  baseball and WNBA, but now they are debuting for actual game.
• 21:46
  That's so power. Power trend plays for spread
• 21:49
  money line in total, which is great.
• 21:51
  And then of course, we have Juice Reel where Juice Reel you
• 21:54
  can get a lot of great data from the Juice Reel app.
• 21:57
  Again, I'm going to pass the hat.
• 21:58
  This pod is free. If you want to let me know you
• 21:59
  appreciate the pod, would you think about maybe signing up to
• 22:03
  get the $4.99 a week best bets, the official all systems go best
• 22:08
  bets on the Juice Reel app, You'll sign up to get those.
• 22:11
  We'll get them earlier when I as soon as I bet them synced up to
• 22:14
  my sports books, they go right to Juice Reel.
• 22:16
  You can tail fade, do whatever you like.
• 22:18
  You can also get these plays early in the day.
• 22:20
  Hope you guys listen to the breakdowns because it's not
• 22:22
  always about, you know, just give me the play.
• 22:24
  But some people just want the play.
• 22:26
  So you can get them from the the all systems go Juice Reel
• 22:31
  basically pics page. You also get the robo Jackson
• 22:34
  best bet picks, the sharp Bush indicators.
• 22:36
  The arbitrage plays the shop for the best line futures all
• 22:39
  available when you download juice reel.
• 22:41
  So download juice reel download rhythm, give him a five star
• 22:44
  review in the App Store next to last odds logic.
• 22:48
  You told me, you heard me talk about it a second ago, but we
• 22:51
  got football coming back and again, you need odds logic year
• 22:54
  round because you need a live odds page year round.
• 22:56
  If you're betting sports everyday like I am, and I know
• 22:58
  like you guys are, you got to know all the games available to
• 23:01
  you, the start times, the live scoring, the in game wagering
• 23:04
  odds. You got to know which direction
• 23:06
  the line is moved, which book is offering the best price,
• 23:09
  identifying steam as soon as it hits the market.
• 23:11
  That's all available to you with the odds logic live odds page.
• 23:15
  So I'd love for you guys to give it a shot.
• 23:17
  Again, get ready for football. It's not that far off.
• 23:19
  You get all the lines on all the games, all sports included.
• 23:22
  Just go to oddslogic.com/josh 123 and again, that's a 7 day
• 23:29
  free trial and 50% off your first month oddslogic.com/josh
• 23:33
  123. So that about does it for
• 23:36
  Episode 323 of the ASG Pod on a big Friday here as we steam into
• 23:41
  the weekend. And again, life is kind of slow
• 23:44
  right now in the sports betting world, but I'm telling you guys,
• 23:46
  each day we're going to heat up and once the Hall of Fame game
• 23:49
  hits, you know, next week, you're almost in full swing
• 23:52
  because then we'll have a preseason NFL to bet on as well,
• 23:54
  which I do have a chapter or a blurb breakdown of how to make
• 23:59
  information based bets in the NFL preseason.
• 24:02
  But either way, guys, leave you with two final thoughts.
• 24:03
  One, whether I see you at the Borgata in Atlantic City, Twin
• 24:07
  River in Rhode Island, the Brooklyn, New Hampshire,
• 24:08
  Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun, down in Connecticut, at the Encore in
• 24:12
  Boston, Plain Ridge Park, Casino, MGM Springfield, the
• 24:15
  Nash. Or of course, out in the desert
• 24:17
  where the true grinders get down, where Billy Walter sends
• 24:19
  his number runners, where lowest true as possible is found at the
• 24:22
  South Point or sweat and sharp contrarian plays jumping in the
• 24:25
  stadium swimming pool. When you catch a big ticket at
• 24:28
  Circa, whatever it may be, you're going to walk up to me.
• 24:30
  Show me a Cardinals ticket. That was back and forth, but
• 24:33
  they're able to come through for us.
• 24:35
  But the Astros and the Angels, come on, man, especially the
• 24:39
  Angels. That was one of those games
• 24:40
  where you knew it was gross, but you trusted the market and the
• 24:42
  Angels let us down. So anyway, what are you going to
• 24:45
  do? But guys, in the end we always
• 24:48
  got to remember making sharp bets with our head and not our
• 24:51
  heart. We might go 1 and 2, two and
• 24:54
  one, might go 3 and OO and three, but we got to keep
• 24:56
  grinding. When we're hot, we're never
• 24:58
  going to get cocky and arrogant and think this is easy.
• 25:02
  And then also when we're cold, we're never going to give up on
• 25:04
  ourselves or think it's unwinnable or start to chase or
• 25:07
  double down again. Whenever as hot as we remember,
• 25:10
  as good as we think when we're hot, we're never as bad as we
• 25:12
  think. When we're cold, we're always
• 25:13
  somewhere in the middle. We just got to stick to the
• 25:15
  model, stick to the blueprint because this is a long term
• 25:18
  forest amongst the trees model. There's going to be highs and
• 25:21
  lows along the way. We're going to try to chip away,
• 25:23
  be profitable long term. And I know that if we stick to
• 25:26
  this model, make bets on games that fit our model against the
• 25:30
  house with the against the public, with the house, with the
• 25:34
  sharps, get some COV again, making data-driven bets here.
• 25:38
  If we can do that, we're going to be successful sports betters.
• 25:41
  So have a great Friday night, have an even better weekend.
• 25:44
  Everyone stay cool. It's like another 95° day in
• 25:47
  Boston. I tell you what, I'm, I'm going
• 25:49
  to the Cape with my family late next month.
• 25:52
  It's kind of what we do right before, you know, the end of
• 25:55
  summer when the everyone's got to go back to school and
• 25:58
  football returns. I'll take the hot weather then,
• 26:01
  but I'm not loving the 95° now. But again, before you know it,
• 26:05
  it'll be fall and it'll be, you know, Halloween and cool down.
• 26:08
  But anyway, have a great Friday. Have an even better weekend,
• 26:12
  guys. I'll see you back on Monday for
• 26:14
  episode 324 of the All Systems Go Sports Betting podcast
• 26:18
  powered by Rhythm. Good luck everybody and
• 26:21
  hopefully we can cash some tickets.