Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / Chad talks NBA Playoffs with Matt Moore & NCAA Football Win Totals with Stuckey and Collin Wilson

Transcript

Chad talks NBA Playoffs with Matt Moore & NCAA Football Win Totals with Stuckey and Collin Wilson · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

0:08
Speaker 1: Welcome to The Favorites, the podcast from the Action Network.
0:15
Speaker 1: I am Chad Millman. We have a massive show today
0:18
Speaker 1: because there are massive things happening in the world of sports,
0:21
Speaker 1: and you'd think like it's May, we're out of football season,
0:28
Speaker 1: where out of March madness, and that maybe the gambling
0:33
Speaker 1: world would slow down, But that's not how it works anymore,
0:39
Speaker 1: because the first weekend in May has also become a massive,
0:42
Speaker 1: massive gambling weekend because there's always a massive fight, So
0:47
Speaker 1: there was Canelo and Daniel Jacob this weekend. There's always
0:50
Speaker 1: the Kentucky Derby, which made a little bit of news,
0:55
Speaker 1: and the NBA playoffs are so exciting an interest sting Um.
1:02
Speaker 1: It's brought a new level to me um in terms
1:06
Speaker 1: of how I think people are engaging with the sport
1:08
Speaker 1: because I think betting is having a big impact on it. Um.
1:12
Speaker 1: Later on in the show, we're gonna have uh, Colin
1:15
Speaker 1: Wilson and Stucky because also college football season win totals
1:20
Speaker 1: are popping up all over the place this past week,
1:22
Speaker 1: so we're gonna dig into that. But first we are
1:25
Speaker 1: going to talk about the NBA with Mr Matt Moore
1:29
Speaker 1: from the Action Network. Matt's how you doing, buddy, I'm
1:33
Speaker 1: doing great, man. Now I'm here in Portland for the
1:35
Speaker 1: first time, enjoying the city and a stellar series when
1:38
Speaker 1: the Nuggets and Blazer has been really fascinating. You've never
1:41
Speaker 1: been to Portland before. I hadn't been able to make
1:44
Speaker 1: it out, Like I've been to so many Western conferences
1:46
Speaker 1: in the cities and and I like both of them
1:48
Speaker 1: in the East as well. But whatever reason, like this
1:51
Speaker 1: one had just slipt through my fingers, so I checked
1:53
Speaker 1: off another one this weekend. That's awesome, Like, I'm surprised
1:56
Speaker 1: given that you're, you know, out there in the hinter
1:59
Speaker 1: lands of Kyle Rotto. Uh. Portland's amazing, and this is
2:03
Speaker 1: a great series. Here's my frustration with this series. And
2:06
Speaker 1: we're gonna talk about all the series. We're gonna talk
2:08
Speaker 1: about the Wars and the Rockets. We're gonna talk about
2:10
Speaker 1: obviously the Nuggets and the Blazers, the Raptors and the Sixers,
2:13
Speaker 1: which is becoming incredibly fascinating because of Kauai and obviously
2:19
Speaker 1: the Celtics in the Bucks. Let's start with the Nuggets
2:21
Speaker 1: and the Blazers, who played another epic game last night.
2:23
Speaker 1: One twelve. This is Monday morning. They played last night
2:27
Speaker 1: Sunday Um the Blazer. The The total on this game
2:32
Speaker 1: was to fifteen. It closed to two ten. Everyone was
2:35
Speaker 1: betting the under because of that massive quadruple overtime game
2:39
Speaker 1: the other night. The Nuggets are an incredibly frustrating team
2:43
Speaker 1: to watch. I feel like they are what the eighth
2:46
Speaker 1: youngest team in the playoffs in NBA history, and I
2:49
Speaker 1: feel like they play like their age. Tons of passes
2:53
Speaker 1: throwing cross court that make me nervous every time I
2:55
Speaker 1: see him go in the air. But I also feel
2:57
Speaker 1: like they just drive to the bass, get with no
3:00
Speaker 1: real plan, and half the time it feels like they
3:03
Speaker 1: missed a layup, or the ball gets stripped, or they
3:05
Speaker 1: lose control of the ball jumping into a forest of players.
3:10
Speaker 1: Am I wrong? Tell me what I'm missing here? I
3:13
Speaker 1: think you're right, except that you've confused the Denver Nuggets
3:16
Speaker 1: with just Jamal Murray. That's that's really. If there's one
3:19
Speaker 1: prop that I wish that we could get on UM
3:22
Speaker 1: for not probably Game five, but for Game six, it
3:24
Speaker 1: would be Jamal Murray turnovers and take the over on
3:27
Speaker 1: that UM. Murray dribbles in his into trouble more than
3:30
Speaker 1: almost any point guard because he doesn't have elite quickness.
3:35
Speaker 1: His first step is not like top level, and so
3:38
Speaker 1: he struggles getting around when you apply pressure on him.
3:41
Speaker 1: Even with the big ian, his canner comes up on
3:44
Speaker 1: him and he can't turn the corner on the baseline,
3:46
Speaker 1: and so a lot of what you're talking about is,
3:48
Speaker 1: you know, they'll come over the screen and try and
3:50
Speaker 1: hedge a little bit with another guy coming over to
3:52
Speaker 1: stop Yokich on the trigger, and the in most point
3:56
Speaker 1: guards are going to turn the corner on canner, get underneath,
3:59
Speaker 1: and then when learned their underneath and there's not a shot,
4:01
Speaker 1: they're gonna loop back around for what's commonly referred to
4:05
Speaker 1: as the Nash loop, which is you zip under the
4:07
Speaker 1: bat the faceline, come out the other side, turn around
4:10
Speaker 1: and take a jumper. But Murray doesn't have that in
4:12
Speaker 1: the skill set yet because he's twenty two, and so,
4:15
Speaker 1: you know, his conversion to point guard has always been
4:17
Speaker 1: a little difficult. He thinks that he's a point guard.
4:19
Speaker 1: Everyone else is kind of like, well, you're kind of
4:21
Speaker 1: a point guard. But a good thing that yokis, you know,
4:24
Speaker 1: is able to pass the way that he does. Their
4:26
Speaker 1: execution can look brilliant at times, their executions can look
4:29
Speaker 1: dangerous at times. Um they always it's this roller coaster
4:34
Speaker 1: with the Nuggets living on the edge of everything. You
4:37
Speaker 1: mentioned that total, which I thought was really fascinating, and
4:40
Speaker 1: actually like all of the media were like fascinated when
4:43
Speaker 1: I was telling them about how that had moved, because
4:45
Speaker 1: it moved back to two ten and sat there until
4:48
Speaker 1: late yesterday and then that it just got the The
4:51
Speaker 1: over got hammered, and that's when I got in on
4:53
Speaker 1: it because I was I was into the over as well,
4:56
Speaker 1: because I knew that this was if there was one
4:58
Speaker 1: thing that was gonna happen coming off before over times,
5:01
Speaker 1: if the legs were shot, nobody was gonna play defense,
5:03
Speaker 1: and there are some good defense played last night. But
5:06
Speaker 1: I just think both teams actually just really stepped it
5:09
Speaker 1: up offensively. Well, it's interesting you look at two ten,
5:12
Speaker 1: you think, is this really going to be a one
5:15
Speaker 1: oh six, one oh four game? Like with with the
5:22
Speaker 1: Denver Nuggets and Dame Lillard and Yokich and Jamal Jamal
5:27
Speaker 1: Murray hoisting every chance he gets, like, there's just no
5:31
Speaker 1: way possible. So to ten seemed like an automatic take
5:35
Speaker 1: in the over It's interesting you say that their legs
5:37
Speaker 1: would be tired, because a lot of people were making
5:41
Speaker 1: that about all right, the shooting is not going to
5:43
Speaker 1: be as good, the scoring will be lower. No one
5:45
Speaker 1: talked about the fact that no one was going to
5:48
Speaker 1: be playing defense in that game. Yeah, except Dots. We
5:52
Speaker 1: had we had over at Action Network and we talked
5:54
Speaker 1: about how that that's really the key there is when
5:58
Speaker 1: you when you're warned own, your lateral mobility is kind
6:02
Speaker 1: of the first thing to go. My veterans has told
6:04
Speaker 1: me this that when you're when you're running on short legs,
6:06
Speaker 1: it's really hard to get yourself up to hedge laterally
6:09
Speaker 1: the way that you have in order to contain guards.
6:12
Speaker 1: And so I give the penetration. And honestly, you thought
6:15
Speaker 1: with Portland last night, I thought Portland looked more tired
6:17
Speaker 1: than Denver because Denver was sliding past them and driving kicking.
6:20
Speaker 1: There were sequences where the Nuggets I think ran like
6:24
Speaker 1: six consecutive driving kicks h and that's just too much
6:28
Speaker 1: fermitter penetration to try and contain. Eventually, somebody who's going
6:31
Speaker 1: to get open and have a good look. And you know,
6:34
Speaker 1: Dever was able to hit enough of their shots and
6:36
Speaker 1: then crashed the glass last night. That's the other keys.
6:39
Speaker 1: You know, thought ENA's Canada looked really worn out because
6:41
Speaker 1: the Nuggets absolutely just crushed them on the offensive last
6:44
Speaker 1: and when you're getting the second chance points, you can't.
6:46
Speaker 1: You can't let Denver have any sort of edges offensively
6:49
Speaker 1: because they've got too many weapons and too much firepower.
6:52
Speaker 1: That's what's kind of crazy about the series is the
6:55
Speaker 1: Blazers have Damian Lillard and c J McCullum, who, by
6:58
Speaker 1: the way, mccullums having just an absolutely incredible series. I'm
7:01
Speaker 1: ready to just hammer the over on his point every
7:03
Speaker 1: single night. Um. But Denver has more firepower because they're
7:08
Speaker 1: more evenly distributed and because Yokich makes the most of
7:11
Speaker 1: it on every single possession. He is amazing. He is
7:15
Speaker 1: stunning to watch, and even when he is sort of
7:20
Speaker 1: just casually making a pass in their half court offense,
7:24
Speaker 1: the way he scans the floor and it's the fast
7:29
Speaker 1: twitch muscles in his arms and wrists, like the way
7:33
Speaker 1: the synapses fire from his brain to the rest of
7:36
Speaker 1: his body. He doesn't need to have a better body,
7:39
Speaker 1: he doesn't need to run faster because his mind is
7:42
Speaker 1: working so quickly and his body is able to translate
7:45
Speaker 1: that at a paste, like I wish we could measure that,
7:48
Speaker 1: because that might be better than anyone else in the
7:49
Speaker 1: NBA and the playoffs that they are all about that too,
7:53
Speaker 1: that it's the mental stuff is really what stands out.
7:56
Speaker 1: Like people will always wonder like, why isn't this guy playing?
7:58
Speaker 1: Why isn't this guy playing? He was so important at
8:00
Speaker 1: the regular season, And the answer is usually like, well,
8:03
Speaker 1: he's not basketball smart. Like you can be really a
8:06
Speaker 1: smart person off the floor and just be a complete
8:09
Speaker 1: dodo on and quite the opposite as well, But if
8:12
Speaker 1: you make mistakes like that's killer in the playoff game.
8:16
Speaker 1: You know, I'm actually writing about this for action. I
8:18
Speaker 1: got some quote last night talking about the folks about
8:20
Speaker 1: there's a play was about one four team left in
8:23
Speaker 1: the game where they ran clock. Murray got stymy because
8:28
Speaker 1: he couldn't get around anybody. He passed the Yoki Yokich
8:31
Speaker 1: fakes the dribble handoff and he turns around and he's
8:34
Speaker 1: got a shot, and like nine of the league is
8:38
Speaker 1: gonna take that mid range jump shot, I'm gonna can
8:40
Speaker 1: this jumper and we're gonna win, and he hesitates, he waits,
8:44
Speaker 1: he nods towards the rim. Harris sees it, immediately makes
8:48
Speaker 1: a cut. Yokas delivers a perfect path, floats it over,
8:52
Speaker 1: Harris finishes, and one like everyone talks about Murray's free
8:55
Speaker 1: throws and that kid did have ice in his veins,
8:57
Speaker 1: But that passed from Yoka is is so indicative of
9:00
Speaker 1: what he brings the game his patients to recognize down
9:04
Speaker 1: the clock. If I wait here, I'm going to have
9:06
Speaker 1: an a chance for a better play making this pass
9:10
Speaker 1: only I could make getting it to Harris for name one.
9:14
Speaker 1: So the theory in in betting on the n b
9:18
Speaker 1: A and betting on a series is often you bet
9:22
Speaker 1: on the player. You bet on the star player who
9:26
Speaker 1: is going to be the best player on the court, right,
9:28
Speaker 1: And that's sometimes how you judge whether or not you
9:31
Speaker 1: want to bet on a series. Is Yokich the best
9:35
Speaker 1: player on the court between these two teams? Is he
9:38
Speaker 1: better than Lillard? So the way I was kind of
9:42
Speaker 1: framing is there's better in terms of overall skill ability, um,
9:47
Speaker 1: and then there's better in terms of impact. And Kevin
9:51
Speaker 1: Durant is a better player than Steph Curry Steph Curry's
9:54
Speaker 1: has a lot more impact. Quick plug also right about
9:58
Speaker 1: that for Action Network Today. Um, what's crazy in this
10:01
Speaker 1: series though, is that when Yokich is on the floor,
10:04
Speaker 1: the Nuggets or something like plus nineteen in debt rating
10:07
Speaker 1: and they're like a minus nine when he's on the bench.
10:09
Speaker 1: Essentially like they killed Portland's in every minute that that
10:13
Speaker 1: Yoka is on court and they get smoked whenever he
10:15
Speaker 1: sits down and with Dame, you know, he's having a
10:18
Speaker 1: rough series. Um. They actually asked him about that last night. Um. Royce,
10:23
Speaker 1: young male colleague from TVs who works the ESPN, asked
10:25
Speaker 1: about how they're crowding kind of Lillard space and Malone
10:29
Speaker 1: because Michael Malone is thankfully we're really kind of transparent
10:33
Speaker 1: and open. Guy was like, you know, we watched the
10:35
Speaker 1: film and we still okay, see was giving Lillard too
10:39
Speaker 1: much space, which is like he's like, it's not a
10:41
Speaker 1: knock on okay, See, that's just what they chose to do.
10:43
Speaker 1: Although all of us were like, it's absolutely knocked on. Okay, see,
10:46
Speaker 1: why would they do this? It was so dumb. Um,
10:48
Speaker 1: they're crowding Lillard a lot more and he's still getting
10:51
Speaker 1: points but it always feels like a non impactful scoring
10:56
Speaker 1: they lose from from Dame. I think Dame is probably
10:58
Speaker 1: gonna have a say in this here season by time
11:00
Speaker 1: it's done. But the best player in the series has,
11:03
Speaker 1: unquestioningly then Yoki. Yoki has probably been honestly behind durant
11:08
Speaker 1: uh Kauai and and maybe Dame in that first round series,
11:12
Speaker 1: but I don't know anymore. Considering how it's gone second round,
11:15
Speaker 1: he's been three or four in the best players in
11:19
Speaker 1: the playoffs. And for a guy his age, with his
11:21
Speaker 1: skill set, with his body type, um, it's absolutely incredible.
11:26
Speaker 1: Do you think and you're in Denver, so you're in
11:29
Speaker 1: Colorado and you're like, you follow the Nuggets closely, do
11:32
Speaker 1: you think during the off season Yokich commits to getting
11:37
Speaker 1: in even better shape. And I'm not I'm not using
11:40
Speaker 1: this in a pejorative way. I have no idea what
11:42
Speaker 1: his regiment is, like, I have no idea like how
11:44
Speaker 1: good his stamina is. I'm basically entirely in the fact
11:47
Speaker 1: that you know, he's kind of a dougheye looking dude,
11:50
Speaker 1: and so do you think he needs to be a
11:53
Speaker 1: more muscular guy in order to be even better or
11:56
Speaker 1: would that not make a difference. Would that just be optics.
12:00
Speaker 1: I don't think so. Um so that he had a
12:03
Speaker 1: quote the other day talking about his weight and he
12:05
Speaker 1: was actually like, honestly, I'm a little light right now.
12:08
Speaker 1: He's like, I'd like to add a little bit away.
12:11
Speaker 1: Um for how he plays, he hasn't been in a
12:15
Speaker 1: series where anybody has been able to play him off before. Um,
12:18
Speaker 1: that's gonna change it he gets older. I think if
12:21
Speaker 1: he gets older, he's definitely gonna have to make adjustments.
12:23
Speaker 1: But for right now, like he's got the long capacity,
12:26
Speaker 1: he's got the energy. Part of what's what's been important
12:29
Speaker 1: in the series is you look at him and you're
12:31
Speaker 1: just like, like, I can't do anything like me. On defense,
12:34
Speaker 1: he's too he's too dowey and slow. But he's better
12:37
Speaker 1: in this series because versus San Antonio, they can play
12:41
Speaker 1: him at the level of the screen, which means like
12:44
Speaker 1: he's better attacking guards up front than he is like
12:48
Speaker 1: having to hang back and trying to contain when you
12:50
Speaker 1: get him downhill like Dame has several times in the series,
12:53
Speaker 1: he's toast, but when he's up and attacking you aggressively
12:56
Speaker 1: at the level trying to head you sideways. He's actually
13:00
Speaker 1: really really good and impactfully, he's gotten much better there
13:03
Speaker 1: on defense. Um, I think actually he's gonna be this
13:06
Speaker 1: same way. He was kind of like caught off Guarden,
13:08
Speaker 1: annoyed by all the talk about the endurance. He was like,
13:11
Speaker 1: it's fine. He's like, I'm in good shape. It's okay.
13:14
Speaker 1: And I think he may be one of those guys.
13:15
Speaker 1: But like he looks that way. But look, after sixty
13:17
Speaker 1: five minutes most most that we've seen in a long
13:21
Speaker 1: time on Friday night, he turns around and has another
13:24
Speaker 1: gem of the game last night and plays heavy minute
13:27
Speaker 1: And I think at this point he's earned the BedHead
13:29
Speaker 1: of doubt to be like, I don't think he needs
13:31
Speaker 1: to do anything else. Like I think he's good. I
13:33
Speaker 1: think I think yo kids can handle it no matter
13:36
Speaker 1: how he looks. Well. Look, he's twenty four years old, right,
13:39
Speaker 1: and so like he could play sixty five minutes one
13:42
Speaker 1: night and come back two nights later and play a
13:44
Speaker 1: boatload of minutes and be as dominant as he is.
13:48
Speaker 1: Right now, the series is tied to two. It's going
13:50
Speaker 1: back to Denver Um. The Nuggets in Game five are
13:55
Speaker 1: four and a half point favorites. This game open to
13:57
Speaker 1: to twelve. It's been bet up to to twelve and
13:59
Speaker 1: a half, bed up to two thirteen and a half.
14:03
Speaker 1: Are you buying Denver for the rest of the series.
14:07
Speaker 1: I like the series price You're getting them at my
14:10
Speaker 1: right now, and with two games at home out of
14:13
Speaker 1: Apostle Threne, I think that probably sets up best for Denver. Um.
14:17
Speaker 1: Portland's extended the series on the backs of guys like
14:20
Speaker 1: Enis Canter and Rocking Hood and Zach Collins, and you
14:23
Speaker 1: can get games out of those guys in limited spurts.
14:26
Speaker 1: The problem is as these series go on, those guys
14:29
Speaker 1: that gave you surprisingly good minute, that's when they start
14:32
Speaker 1: to fade, and you know the nuggets that they have
14:34
Speaker 1: more guys that you can kind of count on. The
14:35
Speaker 1: nuggets I think have gotten better as a series, has
14:37
Speaker 1: gotten gotten on even after starting out one oh UM
14:40
Speaker 1: and even after that that real heartbreaker four O T.
14:43
Speaker 1: Like they played really great in that four O T
14:45
Speaker 1: and just couldn't get the breaks to fall their way.
14:47
Speaker 1: So I like Denver for the series, and I gotta
14:50
Speaker 1: think on that four and a half line, you know,
14:52
Speaker 1: I think it's I wish it opened a little bit tighter. UM.
14:57
Speaker 1: And with game I'm all because he saw it last night,
15:01
Speaker 1: like the Blazers just made them, like just force them
15:04
Speaker 1: to stretch it out. I do think, um that more
15:08
Speaker 1: and more I'm liking the over. Um, there's been a
15:10
Speaker 1: couple of surprises there, but like part of it, you
15:13
Speaker 1: just have to kind of factor all right, let's let's
15:15
Speaker 1: let's bet on standardized offensive shooting performance. Right Like last
15:19
Speaker 1: nime was easy because it was a super low line.
15:22
Speaker 1: UM and like I said, like the legs were gonna
15:24
Speaker 1: be tired on defense. But I think that you know,
15:27
Speaker 1: this has been an offensively tilted series if you look
15:30
Speaker 1: at kind of the advanced metrics, and I think that
15:32
Speaker 1: Portland's wants to get out and kind of push and Denver, Denver,
15:36
Speaker 1: especially since Game three has been on a mission to
15:39
Speaker 1: get out. He that's why Yo get just throwing those
15:41
Speaker 1: baseball outlets on almost every rebound. They want to push
15:45
Speaker 1: pace and so if they keep attacking, I think that
15:47
Speaker 1: the totals are gonna get out there. Um, I'm gonna
15:50
Speaker 1: think long and hard, especially about the Nuggets team total
15:52
Speaker 1: over which I think is one oh seven and a half.
15:55
Speaker 1: The other one of seven or one on nine. I
15:57
Speaker 1: think I'm gonna be on that in particular. You love
16:00
Speaker 1: love love team total overs. I do. I do know
16:06
Speaker 1: being able to target it gives you a little bit
16:09
Speaker 1: of I think also if you're if you if you
16:11
Speaker 1: try and think, if they're like, I think the team
16:12
Speaker 1: is gonna win. But I'm not sure with the line,
16:15
Speaker 1: but either gonna If they're gonna win the game, they're
16:17
Speaker 1: gonna probably put up a higher number. Uh and it
16:21
Speaker 1: free throws at the end, we're gonna probably bump it
16:23
Speaker 1: up a little bit. Uh. And they're gonna be a
16:25
Speaker 1: team that fortunate stuff happens for you know, Like I'm
16:29
Speaker 1: I'm being real, I'm multiplying the opposite, like I'm on
16:32
Speaker 1: the bus on the under uh in one of these
16:34
Speaker 1: games coming out, because I think that Boston's gonna respond
16:37
Speaker 1: offensively with market smart and with that kind of a
16:40
Speaker 1: of a layout. Those the kind of things that I'm
16:42
Speaker 1: factoring in. I've just had more success by anyse team
16:45
Speaker 1: totals than getting stuck where you're like, I nailed it.
16:47
Speaker 1: This team killed it offensively. Oh No, They're up twenty
16:51
Speaker 1: in the fourth quarter and they're sitting everyone with five
16:53
Speaker 1: and their bench is terrible. I've gotten hung on the
16:55
Speaker 1: Raptors like four times in these playoffs, uh with the
16:58
Speaker 1: team totals where the mind totals, just because of those
17:01
Speaker 1: weird outlier performances. So I'm trying to control as many
17:04
Speaker 1: of the variables in the NBA, which everyone knows is
17:07
Speaker 1: such a hard sport to bet. That's what I'm trying
17:09
Speaker 1: to control as many variables as possible. Alright, So let's
17:14
Speaker 1: talk about Kauai. I want to focus actually before we
17:18
Speaker 1: do that, we're gonna focus mostly on Raptors Sixers and
17:23
Speaker 1: Nuggets Blazers because we're recording this on Monday morning. Buck
17:28
Speaker 1: Celtics and um Warriors Rockets played tonight. But I do
17:32
Speaker 1: want to say, let's say that we both believe the
17:36
Speaker 1: Nuggets are going to advance. Do they have any chance
17:40
Speaker 1: in your eyes against the Warriors or the Rockets? Both
17:43
Speaker 1: of those teams, to me, seems like they just played
17:46
Speaker 1: a more mature, different level than either of the teams
17:49
Speaker 1: that we're watching right now. The teams were watching right now,
17:51
Speaker 1: I feel like incredibly energetic young teams that have so
17:56
Speaker 1: much talent, but they don't know how to control it yet.
17:58
Speaker 1: Whereas the other teams, you like, they're playing a much
18:02
Speaker 1: different level of basketball. So I'm gonna find ways to
18:06
Speaker 1: doubt myself. And I'm trying really hard not to overthink
18:09
Speaker 1: the Western Conference Finals, like I'm prepared to get in
18:12
Speaker 1: if it's Warriors, I'm prepared to get in on not
18:15
Speaker 1: only the Warriors to win the series, but to look
18:18
Speaker 1: very seriously at Warriors and four. I'm probably gonna put
18:22
Speaker 1: a bigger chunk down on Warriors and five because they
18:25
Speaker 1: love to give you one. The Warriors love to give
18:28
Speaker 1: teams like, here you go, it's fine, We'll cause that oracle.
18:32
Speaker 1: It's cool. Um Like, that's that's already where I'm gonna be.
18:36
Speaker 1: Houston has just been the nightmare matchup for Denver. I
18:40
Speaker 1: don't honestly believe that Houston is that much better than Denver.
18:44
Speaker 1: I think they've they've built their team to match up
18:45
Speaker 1: well with the Warriors, so we're all like, well, they
18:47
Speaker 1: match up well with the best team, so they must
18:50
Speaker 1: be also as good a team. And I'm just not
18:52
Speaker 1: sure that that's the case. If it's Houston Denver, though,
18:56
Speaker 1: the matchups just go all the way everything that Denver
18:58
Speaker 1: has working for them versus Portland and the series is
19:01
Speaker 1: still going at least six, it's not seven games. Um
19:04
Speaker 1: is the opposite where Denver just has zero matchup advantages
19:09
Speaker 1: versus of the Rockets. So I'm gonna be looking very,
19:12
Speaker 1: very heavily at series prices for for you know, Rockets
19:15
Speaker 1: and four Rockets and five Warriors and four Warriors and
19:18
Speaker 1: five and I'm gonna just basically trust that the Nuggets,
19:21
Speaker 1: as much as they've surprised me this year, don't have
19:23
Speaker 1: that kind of surprise in them. All right, speaking of surprises,
19:29
Speaker 1: the Philadelphia seventy sixers are so up and down, right.
19:34
Speaker 1: Are they the team that can blow you out? Are
19:36
Speaker 1: they the team that's gonna lose by twenty? Are they
19:38
Speaker 1: the team that's gonna get dominated by Kauai? Like? Who
19:41
Speaker 1: is this team right now? I think a lot of
19:46
Speaker 1: it has to do with the fact that, you know,
19:48
Speaker 1: and beat was sick yesterday and that was kind of
19:51
Speaker 1: underreported when he played before that game, uh, And I
19:55
Speaker 1: think that that had a huge impact on how that
19:57
Speaker 1: one played out, where if he's not right, like they're
20:00
Speaker 1: really dependent on him to open everything up. Butler can
20:02
Speaker 1: force some issues. But with Butler, he's trying very it's
20:07
Speaker 1: a lot of hero ball stuff, and you can make
20:09
Speaker 1: it happen because it's really good, but I think your
20:11
Speaker 1: your chance is kind of diminished. Like we said going
20:13
Speaker 1: into the series that you know, the Raptors had all
20:16
Speaker 1: these tactical advantages, and that's still kind of true. When
20:18
Speaker 1: you watch them play out, you're like, Wow, the Raptors
20:20
Speaker 1: have a lot of edges here, but the Sixers have Basically,
20:24
Speaker 1: they run fast, they jump high, they make shots and
20:28
Speaker 1: like that, and they're and they're tall, and that's It's
20:32
Speaker 1: this weird kind of balance between the Raptors execution and
20:35
Speaker 1: the Sixers physical advantages. And I think that's one of
20:38
Speaker 1: the reasons that you see this up and down where
20:39
Speaker 1: when the Raptors settle in and they actually execute, they're
20:43
Speaker 1: able to control these games the way they did one
20:46
Speaker 1: than four and when the when the Raptors don't do that,
20:50
Speaker 1: it looks like the Sixers are just running all over them.
20:53
Speaker 1: I feel like in this series, the Raptors still have
20:56
Speaker 1: control in that if the Raptors do what they need
20:58
Speaker 1: to do, they can win these games. They can take
21:01
Speaker 1: care of business. The Sixers need the Raptors to underperform.
21:05
Speaker 1: I think to win this series and they underperform massively
21:08
Speaker 1: in two and three. Um, that's why I'm I'm real
21:11
Speaker 1: cautious with the series from a betting perspective because I
21:14
Speaker 1: don't feel like I can trust either team. I can't
21:17
Speaker 1: trust the Sixers to win a game in which the
21:18
Speaker 1: Raptors play well, and I can't trust the Raptors to
21:21
Speaker 1: play well. So I've been very hesitant about this one.
21:24
Speaker 1: I think because of all those variables, is it the
21:30
Speaker 1: same philosophy, then Kawhi Leonard is going to be the
21:33
Speaker 1: most dominant player on the court. Do you just bet
21:37
Speaker 1: on Kawhi Leonard If you're gonna bet on this series,
21:41
Speaker 1: I think you're gonna bet on Kawhi Leonard. I think
21:43
Speaker 1: you're gonna bet on home court. I think you're gonna
21:45
Speaker 1: bet on you know, a standardized uh Lowry performance. Like
21:50
Speaker 1: we have to believe that Game three was like the
21:53
Speaker 1: lowest point for Kyle Lowry in this series, and Lowry
21:56
Speaker 1: found a lot of ways that to sink below those
21:58
Speaker 1: notions in previous Playoffs series. Um, but if if he
22:01
Speaker 1: just has like a normal game, just like eyes, fine,
22:04
Speaker 1: then that's just that's huge for Toronto. When he's horrible.
22:08
Speaker 1: The bottom drops out. Marcus Sol has had a bad series.
22:12
Speaker 1: I think he's probably got a better game in him. Um.
22:16
Speaker 1: I do think that, you know, the bench remains a
22:19
Speaker 1: really big edge for the Sixers, Like I'm gonna continue
22:23
Speaker 1: to be at the second the second period on Philly
22:26
Speaker 1: consistently because of their bench edge, which everyone was kind
22:29
Speaker 1: of i think misinformed on that. Everyone was talking about, Oh,
22:31
Speaker 1: the Raptors are deeper, and I'm like, what have you
22:33
Speaker 1: been watching? Like the Raptors have they traded all of
22:36
Speaker 1: their great bench players from last year and it's been
22:38
Speaker 1: a train wreck, And the Sixers have kind of cobbled
22:41
Speaker 1: together enough bench sheet players and have the depth now
22:44
Speaker 1: that kind of stagger their starters, so that that's like
22:46
Speaker 1: the only real edge. I think that, you know, Kauai
22:49
Speaker 1: is a big edge in the series, and he was
22:51
Speaker 1: just he's just been incredible, Like every single possession you're sure,
22:55
Speaker 1: you're like, that's going in splash, that's going in splash.
22:58
Speaker 1: You watch him and you never expect him to miss um.
23:01
Speaker 1: If he has an off game, they're in real trouble.
23:05
Speaker 1: No team is maybe more dependent on him. But he's
23:07
Speaker 1: also been so consistent, so at some level, I think
23:09
Speaker 1: you have to bank on the guys like this kind
23:11
Speaker 1: of goes back to Portland, Denver as well. Yoga has
23:14
Speaker 1: been consistent. He's just every single night he's given you
23:18
Speaker 1: at least seventeen if not twenty five, and he's given you,
23:21
Speaker 1: you know, at least seven assists if not eleven, and
23:24
Speaker 1: he's given you at least ten remounts. Like that, You're
23:27
Speaker 1: getting these consistent performances from dudes. I think those are
23:30
Speaker 1: the guys maybe that you want to target to follow. Alright,
23:34
Speaker 1: so do we think that the Raptors are a better
23:41
Speaker 1: team than the Bucks. I'm handicapping the Bucks are going
23:44
Speaker 1: to beat the Celtics, we end up with a Raptors
23:47
Speaker 1: Raptors Bucks Eastern Conference Final. We end up with a
23:50
Speaker 1: Nuggets Warriors, let's say Western Conference Final. A. Are there
23:56
Speaker 1: any high profile enough teams? We know we got Kauhia,
23:59
Speaker 1: we know get Joannice that will make this interesting for
24:03
Speaker 1: a finals matchup that everyone's gonna want to watch because
24:07
Speaker 1: it might just be the Warriors, I think, especially for
24:11
Speaker 1: for our audience, Like I'm I'm hoping and praying for
24:14
Speaker 1: that Bucks Warriors finals um, because the Warriors will will
24:19
Speaker 1: we'll get a disproportionate line considering where the money's gonna
24:23
Speaker 1: come in, because the casual better is gonna hammer Golden
24:26
Speaker 1: State being like, oh no, no, there's no way Milwaukee's
24:29
Speaker 1: beating him. Um Marcus Thompson in The Athletic had a
24:32
Speaker 1: great piece when the Bucks beat him earlier in the
24:34
Speaker 1: in the year, and it was basically about, if you
24:36
Speaker 1: want to build a team to beat the Warriors, take
24:39
Speaker 1: a look at the Bucks, because the Warriors have a
24:43
Speaker 1: hard time ever being like, no one guy is ever
24:46
Speaker 1: gonna beat us. That's why they they're not really worried
24:48
Speaker 1: about Houston because they're like, Harden is good, but he's
24:50
Speaker 1: not gonna beat us. He just doesn't have it. But
24:52
Speaker 1: they look at Janice and they're like, we can't do
24:54
Speaker 1: anything with them. We can't physically handle him. And with
24:58
Speaker 1: most guys like that in the Lady, they're like, all right,
25:00
Speaker 1: we'll just crash in and we'll just make sure. You know,
25:02
Speaker 1: they don't have the shooting to keep up with us,
25:05
Speaker 1: but the Bucks do have the shooting. So like, I'm
25:08
Speaker 1: hoping for that Bucks Warriors finals because I think it'd
25:11
Speaker 1: be the best um. And also I think that the
25:14
Speaker 1: value would be really good on Milwaukee to upset Golden State. UM.
25:18
Speaker 1: I continue to believe. I'm watching a lot of this
25:21
Speaker 1: from from Game three, and you know, we'll say he's
25:24
Speaker 1: we're recording this on Monday. The Warriors may take care
25:27
Speaker 1: of business and and look great in Game four UM
25:30
Speaker 1: versus Houston, but there's still there's a lot of body language,
25:33
Speaker 1: and when you talk to people around the league, this
25:35
Speaker 1: stuff is consistent of I just think Golden State's ready
25:38
Speaker 1: to be done. I just think they're worn out. I
25:41
Speaker 1: think they're tired of dealing with one another, especially Kevin Durant.
25:45
Speaker 1: I think they're tired of the drama. I think they're
25:47
Speaker 1: exhausted from the run. I think they're ready for something new.
25:50
Speaker 1: I think the first team that really hits them in
25:52
Speaker 1: the mouth, they're gonna be like, you know, let's screw it,
25:54
Speaker 1: We're done. Uh. And I just don't know who's gonna
25:57
Speaker 1: be able to pull that off. But I do think
25:59
Speaker 1: that Milwaukee has a or a chance to do that.
26:02
Speaker 1: All right, here's my final question for you. You did
26:06
Speaker 1: this so well last time that I'm bringing it back.
26:11
Speaker 1: The Celtics versus the ninety six Bulls, we have we
26:18
Speaker 1: NBA two k that the other day. Give me the handicap,
26:24
Speaker 1: who's favored by how much? And break it down for me.
26:30
Speaker 1: All right, so boll they're gonna be favored, They're gonna
26:32
Speaker 1: have home court. Um, they're probably gonna be I would say,
26:39
Speaker 1: let's put him at Honestly, that one's probably gonna be
26:43
Speaker 1: a closer to UM minus. That's could be my four
26:49
Speaker 1: and a half. Oh my god, I was thinking, yeah,
26:54
Speaker 1: it's gonna be bull of minus four and a half
26:56
Speaker 1: because the home court gets them an extra you know,
26:59
Speaker 1: point point off there. And I think that, you know,
27:02
Speaker 1: Jordan himself is probably like this is one of the
27:04
Speaker 1: things that I really want to someday have the resources
27:07
Speaker 1: for us to find out. It's like, how much was
27:09
Speaker 1: Jordan's worth to the line? Like if if Lebron's we
27:12
Speaker 1: know that we know for a factor like Lebron's worth
27:14
Speaker 1: between three and five depending on the matchup. Um, so
27:17
Speaker 1: what was Jordan's like if Jordan was out? Is that
27:20
Speaker 1: like a six point swing on the line. Like these
27:22
Speaker 1: are the questions I think are really fascinating to go
27:24
Speaker 1: back and try and answer. Um. The the key here
27:28
Speaker 1: is that Boston is so that eight six team is
27:30
Speaker 1: so interior oriented where you've got Parish and you've got McHale. Um.
27:35
Speaker 1: But the Bulls have such great defenders inside, like they're
27:39
Speaker 1: gonna have so much you know, Rod then is able
27:41
Speaker 1: to guard any of those dudes even with the size disadvantage,
27:45
Speaker 1: Like they're just gonna be able to do it. Um,
27:48
Speaker 1: They've got so many guys that they can kind of
27:50
Speaker 1: throw at him. And I just think that the perimeter attacks, Like,
27:53
Speaker 1: I don't know, this is one of the keys. Is
27:56
Speaker 1: you know, Bird was good defensively, but was limited in
27:59
Speaker 1: terms of his mobile the what's he gonna do versus Pippen,
28:02
Speaker 1: Like who are they going to hide him on? I
28:04
Speaker 1: think that's a real issue. Um. But I will say
28:06
Speaker 1: that like when you look at um kind of the
28:09
Speaker 1: deeper guys for the Bulls like Steve Kerr and some
28:12
Speaker 1: of these other guys and Ron Harper, I think those
28:14
Speaker 1: are guys where the Celtics on the edge with Dennis
28:16
Speaker 1: Johnson are probably gonna have a little bit of an advantage. Um.
28:20
Speaker 1: I would probably take the Celtics to cover and the
28:23
Speaker 1: bull to win versus the four and a half line.
28:26
Speaker 1: I love that breakdown. I completely agree here's what else.
28:32
Speaker 1: Here's what. Here's what we're gonna do. We're going to
28:35
Speaker 1: create an all time NBA value against the point spread ranking. Yeah,
28:42
Speaker 1: we gotta do that. That's great. We gotta do that.
28:43
Speaker 1: We're gonna talk about that today. I'm gonna figure out
28:45
Speaker 1: how to do that today. Matt Moore, you're way too busy.
28:48
Speaker 1: You're in Portland. Uh, you gotta go to Voodoo Donuts
28:51
Speaker 1: if you haven't gone there already. And UM have a
28:55
Speaker 1: great time covering the playoffs for the Action Network. You're
28:58
Speaker 1: also recording five minute lines for the NBA Action for
29:02
Speaker 1: the Action NBA podcast every day. People need to listen
29:05
Speaker 1: to that because it is all of this incredible NBA analysis,
29:09
Speaker 1: UM summarize for your ears. Thanks for coming on the
29:13
Speaker 1: podcast today, Matt Moore, I appreciate getting up early. Thanks
29:17
Speaker 1: for having me man. Good luck the rest of the way.
29:20
Speaker 1: We are back on the favorite podcast with two of
29:23
Speaker 1: my favorites. They're the host of the Action Network Colleges podcast, which,
29:28
Speaker 1: honest to God, including the Favorites, maybe the best podcast
29:32
Speaker 1: we do, smartest conversation, most enraged fans, UM knee deep
29:39
Speaker 1: on on literally every small podunct team that you can
29:44
Speaker 1: make a bet on throughout college basketball and college football.
29:47
Speaker 1: Colin Wilson, Senior writer for the Action Network, Stucky whatever
29:54
Speaker 1: he wants to be for the Action Network. What's it's, you, guys.
30:01
Speaker 1: I appreciate the kind words and look, it's it's a
30:04
Speaker 1: lot of work that we put in the podcast, but
30:06
Speaker 1: things that turn out well, I think, and no matter
30:09
Speaker 1: what you're talking about, usually people love them. And like
30:12
Speaker 1: I honestly can speak for myself and say I love
30:14
Speaker 1: doing it. I know Colin does too, Like I legitimately
30:17
Speaker 1: miss doing that podcast twice a week and I can't
30:20
Speaker 1: wait until July August rolls around and we can start
30:23
Speaker 1: it back up again. And the hardest part for us
30:26
Speaker 1: is the hardest part is us cutting each other ourselves off,
30:29
Speaker 1: Like we're trying to make a compact podcast, but literally
30:32
Speaker 1: we could talk for three or four hours about every
30:34
Speaker 1: team and FBS. Yeah, that's what's stunning. Like and even
30:38
Speaker 1: you know, and for people who are new to the
30:40
Speaker 1: Action Network, order this podcast. Like when you guys, when
30:44
Speaker 1: we did these um the periscopes, the live periscopes on
30:48
Speaker 1: Saturday mornings, Like I remember Opening Weekend, you were talking
30:52
Speaker 1: about the line on a Stony Brook game and you
30:57
Speaker 1: had legit analysis or like I remember in the Colleges
31:01
Speaker 1: podcast for college basketball, you were sweating a Jackson State
31:07
Speaker 1: Tennessee Martin game when it started, and not only were
31:10
Speaker 1: you sweating it, everybody in the podcast had made the
31:13
Speaker 1: bet independent of each other. That's the level of analysis
31:17
Speaker 1: that you guys bring. I think it's interesting that most
31:20
Speaker 1: people think that the generate game of the week is
31:21
Speaker 1: the Hawaii game, but not for Stuck and Eye, it's Colgate.
31:24
Speaker 1: It's incarnate word like we're we're everywhere alright. So let's
31:29
Speaker 1: get to it though, because the reason I wanted you
31:31
Speaker 1: guys on is because, um, the last few weeks. I
31:35
Speaker 1: know that Colin, you were about this back in March
31:37
Speaker 1: on Action Network, But the last few weeks we've started
31:39
Speaker 1: to see more and more places rollout with college football
31:42
Speaker 1: season win totals. Colin, last year, at this time, you
31:46
Speaker 1: pegged Clemson as the team to beat for the college
31:50
Speaker 1: football National Championship. Um, so I want to get into
31:54
Speaker 1: it right away, Like, tell me, you're looking at the
31:58
Speaker 1: board right now, We're is your future value? Who are
32:01
Speaker 1: you thinking about? So Clemson? For me, it was it
32:03
Speaker 1: was easy to say listen, Trevor Lawrence is the explosive
32:06
Speaker 1: factor they need to beat Alabama. But you know what
32:09
Speaker 1: behind that was a defense that was just gonna be
32:11
Speaker 1: out of this world. That was gonna be drafted in
32:13
Speaker 1: the NFL Draft, everybody in the first round. Uh So
32:16
Speaker 1: it was easy to back that statement up about Clemson
32:18
Speaker 1: when you had a defense like that. We don't have
32:21
Speaker 1: a defense at least I have an identified one that's
32:23
Speaker 1: going to be able to dominate other teams. You think
32:26
Speaker 1: of Georgia two years ago with ro Kawan Smith. He
32:28
Speaker 1: was the nickelback that just roamed the field and was
32:30
Speaker 1: able to shut Oklahoma down. And I have not identified
32:33
Speaker 1: a defense like that. So everybody has an excellent offense.
32:36
Speaker 1: Oklahoma is going to have a worldly offense. Clemson is
32:39
Speaker 1: going to have an unbelievable offense. You know, I think
32:42
Speaker 1: people are not talking about Auburn. Uh they're quietly. I mean,
32:46
Speaker 1: Malone has got a chip on his shoulder. They have
32:49
Speaker 1: a red shirt freshman quarterback Joey Gatewood, and mark my words,
32:53
Speaker 1: that kid is the Cam Newton protege. He looks just
32:57
Speaker 1: like Cam Newton. Uh he runs an RPO power set.
33:01
Speaker 1: Uh So I think there's gonna be a lot of
33:03
Speaker 1: dynamic offenses, but we haven't yet identified the one defense
33:07
Speaker 1: in college football yet that's going to be able to
33:09
Speaker 1: stabilize their team and get them through the playoffs. So definitely,
33:13
Speaker 1: I think Oklahoma is a team that people are just discounting,
33:16
Speaker 1: but with Alex Durnch coming in a defensive coordinator, that's
33:19
Speaker 1: gonna be you know, they are true national championship contenders
33:23
Speaker 1: this year. Stuff. Do you have anything to add to that? Yeah,
33:29
Speaker 1: I mean, look, the team that we had targeted. I
33:31
Speaker 1: think Colin would would I would agree with this. Take
33:35
Speaker 1: the team that we both had target right when the
33:37
Speaker 1: odds came out Actually when we were sitting at Westgate
33:41
Speaker 1: was on Georgia. And you know, talk about a team
33:44
Speaker 1: that is going to be motivated more than any to
33:47
Speaker 1: beat Alabama this year. If those two teams meet up again, Um,
33:51
Speaker 1: you know, they lost some guys that I were hoping
33:53
Speaker 1: would come back, but I still love their ross there.
33:56
Speaker 1: I mean, look, the same the same players are going
33:59
Speaker 1: to end up being there. I mean, even if you
34:00
Speaker 1: look at Alabama this year, Colum talked about their offense,
34:03
Speaker 1: I mean, they're not conference schedule. They'll start with Duke
34:08
Speaker 1: and they play New Mexico State, they play Southern Myths,
34:12
Speaker 1: they play Western Caroline. I mean this is one of them.
34:14
Speaker 1: I mean, this schedule is it is very conducive for
34:17
Speaker 1: them being right back in the playoffs. You expect, you know,
34:20
Speaker 1: some of your major players again. But there's something about
34:22
Speaker 1: Georgia that, you know, when they lost that game with
34:26
Speaker 1: the fake punts Alabama, that you just have that they're
34:29
Speaker 1: gonna have a chip all season long with Kirby and
34:33
Speaker 1: you know, I think they're down to eight to one,
34:35
Speaker 1: which isn't the best value, but maybe if they you know,
34:39
Speaker 1: if you can find a ten to one out there.
34:41
Speaker 1: But there's something about Georgia you would agree with Colin right,
34:43
Speaker 1: I absolutely agree. We got the twelve to one when
34:46
Speaker 1: it came out. It's down to eight to one. The
34:48
Speaker 1: better value right now is plus two fifty on the
34:50
Speaker 1: SEC Championship. It's I wouldn't go for the eight to one.
34:53
Speaker 1: I take the plus two fifty on Georgia to win
34:55
Speaker 1: the SEC and stucks, right. Do you know why they
34:57
Speaker 1: went for a fake field goal against L s U
35:00
Speaker 1: And do you know why they had a fake punt
35:01
Speaker 1: in the SEC Championship game? Because Kirby didn't trust his defense.
35:05
Speaker 1: Now he's got a lot of players, some that were
35:07
Speaker 1: injured last year, some that red shirted last year, and
35:10
Speaker 1: they haven't identified their Rod Kuan Smith. They've set out
35:12
Speaker 1: in public we are looking for another road Kuan Smith
35:15
Speaker 1: to leave the defense. They will be playing with a
35:17
Speaker 1: chip on the shoulder, same as Gus Malazan world for Auburn,
35:20
Speaker 1: I don't like Alabama this year at all. Now I
35:23
Speaker 1: mathematically can't justify it, you know, because I've got the
35:26
Speaker 1: middle eleven point four and their win total is at
35:29
Speaker 1: eleven and Stuck is right. They play these teams that
35:32
Speaker 1: just sets them up nonconference wise. They they always have
35:35
Speaker 1: this cake schedule. I mean, Duke, I mean, I mean,
35:37
Speaker 1: that's that's ridiculous. But they do have to go to
35:39
Speaker 1: Texas and them, and they do have to go to
35:40
Speaker 1: Mississippi State and Auburn is the one hosting the Iron
35:43
Speaker 1: Bull this year. But there's just so much change with
35:46
Speaker 1: the coordinators. Uh. Steve Sarkisian is back as the offensive coordinator.
35:50
Speaker 1: I mean, if he's so great, why did he leave
35:52
Speaker 1: after the national title lost to Clemson? And then they
35:55
Speaker 1: did go get a rising star in Pete Golding Uh
35:58
Speaker 1: from U T s A shout out to meet me there.
36:00
Speaker 1: He's a new defensive coordinator, but he's a defensive backs guy.
36:04
Speaker 1: He coaches. He coaches corners and safeties, and that's not
36:07
Speaker 1: where Alabama's problem is. Alabama's problem is that they were
36:09
Speaker 1: getting gashed on the ground in the front seven. So
36:12
Speaker 1: they haven't resolved that issue whatsoever. I'm not taking any
36:15
Speaker 1: Alabama futures. I don't The number is overpriced. They shouldn't
36:20
Speaker 1: be at the same prices Clemson for the national title.
36:22
Speaker 1: I wouldn't take them over eleven. I wouldn't take them
36:24
Speaker 1: to win the SEC. At some point, the Saban regime
36:28
Speaker 1: is going to come to an end mathematically. Can I
36:30
Speaker 1: prove it right now? No, But I can tell you
36:32
Speaker 1: that that whole story about where the f is Dan,
36:36
Speaker 1: which is what Saban said when he came in looking
36:39
Speaker 1: for Danny Knows, his offensive coordinator and couldn't find him
36:42
Speaker 1: because he'd already cleaned out his office and went down
36:44
Speaker 1: to Miami. Uh. They're just things in the Saban regime.
36:47
Speaker 1: They're just not jelling. And now you've got all these
36:50
Speaker 1: players in there that weren't recruited by these coordinators. I'm
36:53
Speaker 1: not having any part of Alabama futures. Are they still talented, yes,
36:57
Speaker 1: but I don't I see it's coming to an end.
37:00
Speaker 1: You have a column, but how I would rebut that
37:02
Speaker 1: is I agree with you that there there's no value
37:04
Speaker 1: in taking them futures, and I do like that Georgia
37:06
Speaker 1: to win the SEC. My problem with you know, calling
37:11
Speaker 1: the album and not going to the playoffs this year
37:13
Speaker 1: is because of that schedule. Yes, they have all that turnover,
37:15
Speaker 1: but it's not like they're playing you know, another legit
37:19
Speaker 1: Power five team in their nonconference earlier where they can
37:22
Speaker 1: suffer a loss and then suffer a loss later in
37:25
Speaker 1: the season and then all of a sudden they're out,
37:27
Speaker 1: I mean with that non conference and then you know,
37:29
Speaker 1: I mean maybe they trip up at Texas A and
37:31
Speaker 1: M on October twelve, but other than that, you don't
37:34
Speaker 1: really find any losses, you know, until late in the
37:37
Speaker 1: season or maybe they are starting to jael and then
37:39
Speaker 1: two of their last three games are at Mississippi State
37:42
Speaker 1: and at Alvern and then you know, potentially they have
37:44
Speaker 1: c championship game. But maybe they solve a lot of
37:46
Speaker 1: those issues. And I think that then not having any
37:49
Speaker 1: real tough nonconference game. I think it's gonna You're gonna
37:52
Speaker 1: have album right back in the conversation. Alright, now, we're
37:55
Speaker 1: getting to hold on, hold on, hold on. This is
37:59
Speaker 1: the favorite podcast. It's not the Action Network Colleges podcast.
38:04
Speaker 1: It's been a while, Chad, we were we had lack
38:06
Speaker 1: it out. I'm glad I could bring you two together.
38:09
Speaker 1: And normally, you know, you know, you guys know my
38:11
Speaker 1: managing style. I really like to just put people in
38:13
Speaker 1: the room and then get out of the way and
38:15
Speaker 1: let them do their magic. Um. You know, I've got
38:18
Speaker 1: a hands off approach. But in this particular case, Um,
38:22
Speaker 1: I hear Matt Ford laughing in the background there, and
38:24
Speaker 1: I know that you're laughing in like a sinister way
38:28
Speaker 1: and not in our chat. He's funny kind of way.
38:30
Speaker 1: Um forward, are you there, I'm here, Okay. Um, Well,
38:37
Speaker 1: Chad does come into every meeting he's and he said
38:39
Speaker 1: he was invited in every meeting in the company. I
38:42
Speaker 1: feel like I come into every meeting and like I
38:45
Speaker 1: feel like I stirred the pot a little bit. I
38:47
Speaker 1: always feel like I end up leaving the meeting better
38:50
Speaker 1: than when it began. Oh no, I wanted to rearly
38:53
Speaker 1: agree with you, but I was saying that's not the
38:54
Speaker 1: most hands all approach going to every meeting. Chad is
38:58
Speaker 1: saying that he is a walking value add to every meeting.
39:01
Speaker 1: I would agree with that. I'm going to put that
39:04
Speaker 1: in my own self assessment. Hey, m Colin, like, how
39:08
Speaker 1: do you do this? Explain to people how you make
39:11
Speaker 1: these assessments um on these college teams so quickly? Because
39:16
Speaker 1: it's not it's May now, But you were thinking about
39:18
Speaker 1: this back in March, Like what from the time the
39:21
Speaker 1: season ends, what are you doing to get yourself ready?
39:24
Speaker 1: Because you see these as real opportunities and real value. Yeah,
39:28
Speaker 1: I mean to clarify, it was in March. It was stucky,
39:30
Speaker 1: and I said at the West Gate during the National Championship,
39:32
Speaker 1: and I was finishing up some numbers and I told him,
39:35
Speaker 1: I said, Georgia, that's a bad number. Let's go up
39:36
Speaker 1: and go get it. So this happens pretty fast. I
39:39
Speaker 1: try to be as transparent as possible because I think
39:41
Speaker 1: everybody should build their own power rating base. And here's
39:45
Speaker 1: how I do it. I look at second order wind
39:47
Speaker 1: totals because that tells you who was lucky the year before.
39:49
Speaker 1: There's always regression in that. I look at net turnovers.
39:53
Speaker 1: Uh those you know, those stats are widely available the
39:55
Speaker 1: second the season is over. Returning production is a big deal. Now,
39:59
Speaker 1: it's not the only thing thing I'm not I mean,
40:00
Speaker 1: I got kind of got. Someone says, oh, he's just
40:03
Speaker 1: looking at you know, the number of starters that returned.
40:05
Speaker 1: That's not the only thing. Returning production and your skill
40:07
Speaker 1: positions is important, but it's just a factor. It's not
40:10
Speaker 1: the only thing that determines these these uh power rating
40:13
Speaker 1: numbers and these win totals, and then you have to
40:16
Speaker 1: look at regression to the mean of your of your
40:19
Speaker 1: power rating number. I'll give you an example. A couple
40:21
Speaker 1: of years ago, Notre Dame finished four and eight. They
40:24
Speaker 1: dropped something like sixteen points in their power rating. Does
40:26
Speaker 1: that mean that they should start the next season sixteen
40:28
Speaker 1: points off their general power rating? The answers, no, that
40:31
Speaker 1: should be bumped back up a little bit. So really,
40:34
Speaker 1: I get into the havoc and I haven't said yet
40:37
Speaker 1: on this podcast, let's get it started. In twenty nineteen,
40:40
Speaker 1: I look at explosiveness, who is coming back that creates
40:43
Speaker 1: havoc on defense that it's explosive on offense and their
40:45
Speaker 1: returning production. And that's what builds a power rating. And
40:48
Speaker 1: once you have power ratings, you can build your entire
40:50
Speaker 1: twenty nineteen schedule. You get win probabilities for individual games.
40:54
Speaker 1: You have twelve games on the slate, You add those
40:56
Speaker 1: win probabilities together and there you go. That's how you
40:58
Speaker 1: come up with something like I think Miami is gonna
41:00
Speaker 1: win seven point nine nine games. You love explosiveness, Oh
41:06
Speaker 1: my god in the green zone. Uh to add to
41:09
Speaker 1: column too, that there's also a you know, because that's
41:13
Speaker 1: the modeling portion of it. And I always say this
41:15
Speaker 1: to people, like there's an art and a science to handycapping,
41:18
Speaker 1: so like there's always there's also a feel, and like
41:20
Speaker 1: there's a tangible benefit they'll be modeling people that would
41:24
Speaker 1: argue this to death, there's not. I would argue forever
41:26
Speaker 1: that there is value in watching these games, understanding these teams.
41:30
Speaker 1: And then that's when you make you know, just because
41:32
Speaker 1: your winds comm well test, that's just because you're wind total.
41:36
Speaker 1: Your mathematical wind total adds up to seven point nine nine,
41:39
Speaker 1: But and the over unders at seven, that doesn't necessarily
41:42
Speaker 1: mean you'll bet the over sound un or intuitive, but
41:46
Speaker 1: you know, there's you know, there's certain spots, there's certain
41:50
Speaker 1: situations that you might not like. There might be a
41:52
Speaker 1: culture thing or something you don't like about the You
41:54
Speaker 1: know that you're just adding up the probability. So there's
41:56
Speaker 1: also the feel going into the season, the off season,
42:00
Speaker 1: and during the season from watching and knowing these programs
42:02
Speaker 1: as well, which is why I think it's beneficial to
42:04
Speaker 1: just watch and this is what every sport. We may
42:06
Speaker 1: watch as much as I possibly can. But let me
42:10
Speaker 1: wrap that back into the feel of the market. But
42:12
Speaker 1: there's another art to this. It's not just a model.
42:15
Speaker 1: It's not just a number. Let's take Nebraska over eight.
42:17
Speaker 1: That's the number that's currently out there on their wind toll.
42:20
Speaker 1: Now I've got it at seven point two. So you
42:21
Speaker 1: would ask, why, Colin, why haven't you gone to the
42:23
Speaker 1: window and take an under eight on Nebraska's window. It's
42:26
Speaker 1: because I know, at this point, at this point in
42:28
Speaker 1: the calendar year, there's three months of people that are
42:30
Speaker 1: gonna line up to buy Nebraska over just because of
42:33
Speaker 1: the name Scott Frost. But I got news for you.
42:34
Speaker 1: They lost everybody on defense and everybody that's coming into play.
42:38
Speaker 1: The defense has to learn that brisky three four that
42:40
Speaker 1: Eric Shenandrew runs. Uh, you know, they're they've got a
42:44
Speaker 1: tough schedule. Again, I've got them, you know, under eight easy.
42:47
Speaker 1: But I think market wise, there's gonna be money flowing
42:50
Speaker 1: in on the over on Nebraska. So maybe an eight
42:52
Speaker 1: and a half pops out there and maybe I get
42:54
Speaker 1: a really great number on it. So you have to
42:56
Speaker 1: be able to read the market along with having a
42:58
Speaker 1: modeling number. And that's what we do. We to leap
43:00
Speaker 1: with point spread to like we see point spreads open
43:02
Speaker 1: up and I'll say I'll tweet out, I'll say, hey,
43:05
Speaker 1: that's four points off. But if it's not gonna go
43:07
Speaker 1: the way that I want, then I'm gonna wait and
43:08
Speaker 1: I'm gonna buy it on Friday. Yeah. Concrete example in
43:11
Speaker 1: Nebraska was last year. I think that exact same thing
43:14
Speaker 1: happened with Nebraska and they got up to what six
43:17
Speaker 1: their win total. Yeah, you have to know which way
43:21
Speaker 1: the market's gonna go. Like I mean, everybody is going
43:23
Speaker 1: to be betting certain teams over and not a lot
43:26
Speaker 1: of unders though there's a lot of wind totals to
43:28
Speaker 1: get bet over and if you like the under on
43:30
Speaker 1: a team, you want to wait for it to rise
43:32
Speaker 1: a little bit and then kind of swoop in August
43:34
Speaker 1: and take an under. You know, it's actually different for
43:36
Speaker 1: the group of five because nobody pays attention to the
43:38
Speaker 1: group of five teams. And that's where the value on
43:40
Speaker 1: the over is because it's teams like you a b
43:43
Speaker 1: I can tell you right now, Stuggy is probably gonna
43:45
Speaker 1: have an over on you tap this year, so uh,
43:48
Speaker 1: and I'll join them. But yeah, the group of five
43:52
Speaker 1: is where the overs are. All right, Well, let's talk
43:54
Speaker 1: about that for a second. Give me your while we
43:57
Speaker 1: take it out of here. Give me your teams that
44:00
Speaker 1: you are most bullish on their season win totals. There
44:05
Speaker 1: the over and the under. Okay, So the two overbets
44:10
Speaker 1: that I'm looking to place right now is going to
44:13
Speaker 1: be Oklahoma State. That's over six. That's a ridiculous number.
44:17
Speaker 1: I know it's juice right now, but that if it
44:19
Speaker 1: gets this, it's a play at six. It's a play
44:21
Speaker 1: at six and a half. Listen, Gundy hasn't finished with
44:24
Speaker 1: less than seven wins since his first year, and what
44:27
Speaker 1: I think two thousand five is last time he has
44:30
Speaker 1: admitted his mistakes of being lazy. He said that he
44:32
Speaker 1: got into, uh, he got kind of into trusting Roodolph
44:36
Speaker 1: and Washington that they were there for so long at
44:38
Speaker 1: Oklahoma State that he trusted them in the routine in
44:40
Speaker 1: practice and he kind of laid off on micromanaging last year. Uh.
44:44
Speaker 1: It's showed in the offensive line, it showed in their
44:46
Speaker 1: trench play. But this is still a team that the
44:50
Speaker 1: beat O you this is I'm sorry. This is a a
44:51
Speaker 1: team to beat West Virginia, a team to beat Texas
44:53
Speaker 1: and came within a two point conversion of beating OU. Uh,
44:57
Speaker 1: they went and got Princeton's offensive coordinator. Uh, they're going
45:00
Speaker 1: to be fantastic this year. I know they're still quarterback battle,
45:04
Speaker 1: but they're gonna they're gonna clip six wins the other one.
45:07
Speaker 1: And this is probably gonna be the boldest statement of
45:10
Speaker 1: the podcast. Not only do I like Utah over eight
45:12
Speaker 1: and a half, I like Utah to go to the NAP.
45:15
Speaker 1: I like you talk to go to the college football playoffs.
45:18
Speaker 1: And I know that the bold statement. That's a pretty
45:21
Speaker 1: bold statement, but just hear me out on this Utah
45:23
Speaker 1: going to the the playoff thing. First off, you know, a
45:25
Speaker 1: team from the Pac twelve going to the playoff. That's crazy.
45:28
Speaker 1: These guys are twenty first and returning production third on offense. Uh.
45:31
Speaker 1: And it gets their quarterback Tyler Huntley back. They get
45:34
Speaker 1: the running back Zack Moss back. They were injured at
45:36
Speaker 1: the end of the year. Uh. They didn't play in
45:38
Speaker 1: that three point loss to Washington and the Pac twelve
45:40
Speaker 1: championship game. They are extremely deep, extremely talented, they're multiple,
45:45
Speaker 1: they are very well coached. Uh. You know, and they're
45:48
Speaker 1: going into their big game against USC that's going to
45:51
Speaker 1: decide the South. They're coming off a game against Idaho State.
45:54
Speaker 1: As we're USC has just got this crazy schedule where
45:57
Speaker 1: just every week is going to be a pothole they
45:59
Speaker 1: can fall into. And not to mention these things are
46:01
Speaker 1: not going well with that program. Utah has a schedule
46:05
Speaker 1: conducive to getting to the PacTel Championship game with one
46:08
Speaker 1: loss and being able to play their way into the playoff.
46:12
Speaker 1: A ten to one bet on Utah to win the
46:14
Speaker 1: Pac twelve please yes, Uh. They have not released odds
46:18
Speaker 1: on Utah to make the College Football Playoff. I'll be
46:21
Speaker 1: investing in that and whether the Utah comes out around
46:23
Speaker 1: a pick when the PAC twelve South. I'll limit that
46:26
Speaker 1: that I love Utah this year. Whoa, whoa stuck. I
46:34
Speaker 1: will give you thirty seconds to try to top that.
46:37
Speaker 1: But you can't. Well now, well, I mean Colin is
46:40
Speaker 1: fully immersed in the pool. I start all of my
46:42
Speaker 1: team to work on June one. I mean I'm right
46:44
Speaker 1: now watching tennants hockey baseball. So I'm you know, once
46:50
Speaker 1: June one, girls around you pretty we can shut off
46:53
Speaker 1: another couple of sports. But I have you know, I dabble,
46:57
Speaker 1: uh and I was actually gonna mention Utah funny enough,
46:59
Speaker 1: but I'm it. And you tap the miners. What are
47:01
Speaker 1: they one in twenty seven over the last three seasons
47:05
Speaker 1: or something? Um, but and we are my favorite bat
47:08
Speaker 1: last year was you kept under one and two and
47:11
Speaker 1: a half or whatever at two or whatever whatever crazy
47:14
Speaker 1: number they put out there. But I think that they
47:16
Speaker 1: can win three or four games this year with their schedule.
47:18
Speaker 1: You know, they bring back a lot. They have their
47:20
Speaker 1: best recruiting class in the last ten years. The market
47:23
Speaker 1: is just so low. In the minutester what they've seen,
47:25
Speaker 1: you tap over. I'm going to get on the good
47:27
Speaker 1: graces of El Paso and Minor Nations this year. I
47:31
Speaker 1: got them at two point nine. I'll be right there
47:33
Speaker 1: with you. So three wins it is, Oh my god.
47:36
Speaker 1: This is why I love the Colleges podcast and when
47:39
Speaker 1: I love that you guys work at the Action Network
47:41
Speaker 1: because you have strong opinions about the U tap miners
47:46
Speaker 1: and their season win total down to the decimal point.
47:51
Speaker 1: I feel like it's a good spot to close, and
47:53
Speaker 1: I think it's will be back. So do you just
47:56
Speaker 1: want to take over the whole podcast? You just wanna
47:58
Speaker 1: you want to do the the ad read too stuck? Now,
48:02
Speaker 1: I'll let you do that. Listen, guys, great great work.
48:06
Speaker 1: Colin Wilson, Senior writer, Action Network UM official. Congratulations to
48:12
Speaker 1: Colin Wilson, who had been a contributor and is now
48:16
Speaker 1: joining Action Network full time. I couldn't be more great.
48:19
Speaker 1: I'm proud of it. I can't wait to just tear
48:21
Speaker 1: it up for the Action Network. You deserve this, man,
48:25
Speaker 1: You freaking killed this. You made it impossible not to
48:29
Speaker 1: bring you on a full time because your stuff is
48:31
Speaker 1: so good. People love you in the app uh and
48:34
Speaker 1: your passion is undeniable. You willed this to happen. You
48:37
Speaker 1: were like you know, Danny with a dragon. Well she's
48:42
Speaker 1: only got one left, so let's clarify her. The you know,
48:45
Speaker 1: the game of the runs to getting down to the end.
48:46
Speaker 1: But she's just careless, I mean she lost a dragon.
48:48
Speaker 1: But yes, yes, hopefully I can be as as tenacious
48:52
Speaker 1: as Drogne. So I think you will be all right, stuck,
48:57
Speaker 1: you think you know. Thanks to you for coming on
48:59
Speaker 1: too and trying to steal my job. All right. This
49:04
Speaker 1: has been the Favorites from the Action Network, downloaded at Apple,
49:09
Speaker 1: podcast at radio dot com, Slash the Action Network listen.
49:12
Speaker 1: Later this week, black Jack Fletcher will be back on
49:17
Speaker 1: the show. Until next time. I Love you,