Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / Lifting The Curse on NFL Week 11
Transcript
- 0:09Speaker 1: Welcome to The Favorites, the podcast from the Action Network.
- 0:13Speaker 1: I am Chad Melman and I am going to be
- 0:15Speaker 1: joined by my best friend and professional better Simon Hunter.
- 0:20Speaker 1: In a moment Simon and I haven't spoken since Sunday afternoon,
- 0:27Speaker 1: when Simon heard me maybe in one of my most
- 0:31Speaker 1: vulnerable moments ever. Simon, you know exactly what I'm talking about. Uh,
- 0:35Speaker 1: it's a moment in which he heard me go from
- 0:39Speaker 1: euphoric to flum mixed to purely despondent and then basically
- 0:46Speaker 1: unable to speak. Um. It was just it was totally devastating.
- 0:52Speaker 1: And I'm talking, of course about us having Arizona minus
- 0:56Speaker 1: two and a half in the Draft Kings pick up contest,
- 0:58Speaker 1: watching Kyler Murray's mirror touchdown pass to DeAndre Hopkins to
- 1:02Speaker 1: give them a two point lead with two seconds left,
- 1:06Speaker 1: only to realize when I was on the phone with
- 1:09Speaker 1: Simon Hunter that they were not going to kick the
- 1:11Speaker 1: extra point. Simon, I think it was when I called
- 1:14Speaker 1: you and you said, A, I can't believe we're calling
- 1:17Speaker 1: me and be they still got to kick the extra point.
- 1:20Speaker 1: When I realized they weren't going to kick the extra point. Yeah,
- 1:24Speaker 1: that was They'll go down as a minute of hell
- 1:26Speaker 1: in my life. They mixed the extra point and then
- 1:29Speaker 1: Nick Mullen's driving the field through a pick all in
- 1:31Speaker 1: that one minute span up two of the games. So
- 1:33Speaker 1: we're looking at four and one to two and three
- 1:35Speaker 1: in a matter of one minute. That was brual Man.
- 1:38Speaker 1: So yesterday I got a text from my buddy uh Sylvie.
- 1:42Speaker 1: He is the host of co host of The Waddle
- 1:45Speaker 1: and Sylvie Show UH in Chicago on ESPN Radio in Chicago,
- 1:50Speaker 1: and he asked me, he goes, does the Cardinals game
- 1:55Speaker 1: count as a bad beat because in reality, like they
- 1:59Speaker 1: never should have been in it? And my answer was yes,
- 2:02Speaker 1: because what happened before the extra point was miraculous and
- 2:07Speaker 1: it's not a bad beat like because of But that's
- 2:11Speaker 1: not what makes it the bad beat. The bad beat
- 2:14Speaker 1: is that something pro forma, something that is just completely
- 2:18Speaker 1: standard that should happen didn't happen. And that's what makes
- 2:23Speaker 1: it the bad beat, because the expectation at that point
- 2:26Speaker 1: you're gonna cover and then you didn't. Missing the not
- 2:30Speaker 1: having the extra point kicked is what makes it a
- 2:32Speaker 1: bad beat. You don't get to not feel like you
- 2:34Speaker 1: never were gonna win the game to begin with, because
- 2:37Speaker 1: the touchdown was miraculous, right. That's like my buddy text
- 2:40Speaker 1: me the same thing goes, how is that a bad being?
- 2:42Speaker 1: I'm like, can you name me the other time team
- 2:45Speaker 1: kneeled down an extra point instead of kicking the extra
- 2:48Speaker 1: point because I can't so to me, if I can't
- 2:50Speaker 1: think of it, that's a bad beat. Like the same
- 2:53Speaker 1: thing where people are complaining so hard about the Cleveland line.
- 2:57Speaker 1: Of course bad beat man. The guy stepped out the one,
- 3:00Speaker 1: but at the same time he was calling the backfield.
- 3:03Speaker 1: He broke a couple of tackles, and he broke it
- 3:04Speaker 1: down the sideline and he stepped out. It's like, that's
- 3:07Speaker 1: what I get when people say there's some little guy
- 3:09Speaker 1: in some basement in Switzerland that makes up these lines,
- 3:13Speaker 1: who has the ultimate computer system. That's like the theory
- 3:15Speaker 1: in Vegas. There's some guy in the middle of the
- 3:17Speaker 1: mounds of Switzerland who puts these lines up, and that's
- 3:19Speaker 1: who they steal these lines for it these sports books
- 3:21Speaker 1: and off shore. I believe it. Man, this dude whoever
- 3:25Speaker 1: makes these lines, he's the goat. We had so many
- 3:27Speaker 1: good middle middle opportunities this week where like that Arizona game.
- 3:31Speaker 1: We're talking about you got the best of the number
- 3:32Speaker 1: at one and a half. A lot of the people
- 3:34Speaker 1: listen to this podcast and their competitions too. They had
- 3:36Speaker 1: one and a half with the Cardinals. That's a winner.
- 3:39Speaker 1: You took two and a half of the Bills, that's
- 3:40Speaker 1: a winner. Like the fact that they're off on these
- 3:43Speaker 1: lines by half a point, it just shows we're like
- 3:45Speaker 1: we're in the dog days of football or the Vegas
- 3:47Speaker 1: is really sharp with these lines, and if you're not
- 3:50Speaker 1: getting the best of the number, it has a scary
- 3:52Speaker 1: off where Cleveland you're the wrong side the three and
- 3:55Speaker 1: a half. We talked about it that they don't cover hooks.
- 3:58Speaker 1: You're on the wrong side. Houston was the right side,
- 4:00Speaker 1: so it was bad luck. But Scooch says, the right
- 4:04Speaker 1: side the winning side, my friend. As Scoot Chez. By
- 4:07Speaker 1: the way, you mentioned, when's the last time someone didn't
- 4:09Speaker 1: kick an extra point? As Matt Mitchell, our producer, knows
- 4:13Speaker 1: this past week. But last week we had a video
- 4:16Speaker 1: go up. We do these videos called Great Moments in
- 4:18Speaker 1: Gambling History. You put them on at Action Network HQ
- 4:22Speaker 1: and UH. They're they're presented by DraftKings and um. We
- 4:27Speaker 1: did one last week, which was the most viewed one
- 4:29Speaker 1: we've done so far this year. We've done four of them,
- 4:32Speaker 1: which was the Bills were three and a half point
- 4:36Speaker 1: dogs against the Patriots. The Bills were up twenty one
- 4:42Speaker 1: seventeen with six seconds left, Drew Bledsoe through a hail
- 4:47Speaker 1: mary into the end zone. The refs called past interference,
- 4:51Speaker 1: so there was no time left on timed down from
- 4:54Speaker 1: the one yard line. The Patriots scored a touchdown. There
- 4:58Speaker 1: are u those betters are still like, well, it doesn't matter,
- 5:02Speaker 1: we got three and a half. They're going to kick
- 5:04Speaker 1: the extra point. It's over. In protest, the Bills walk
- 5:07Speaker 1: off the field. Adam Vintary, the kicker for the Patriots
- 5:11Speaker 1: at the time, gets a direct snap, walks into the
- 5:13Speaker 1: end zone. Patriots win by four, and that forever We'll
- 5:18Speaker 1: leave Pete Carroll to be the gambling gods. People love
- 5:20Speaker 1: Pete Carroll just because of that moment. If you're exactly
- 5:23Speaker 1: you remember it. Yeah, it's legendary. Hey, quick note from
- 5:28Speaker 1: the producer here. That is the only time in NFL
- 5:31Speaker 1: history a pastor appearance call has been called im a
- 5:34Speaker 1: hail mary. And as a builds fan, funk that game,
- 5:38Speaker 1: funk the Patriots, and fuck Pete Carroll al right before
- 5:42Speaker 1: we get to the recap. Before we get to the recap,
- 5:44Speaker 1: I just want to remind everybody, as you've heard professional Better,
- 5:47Speaker 1: Simon Hunter is joining the pod every week and together
- 5:50Speaker 1: we have entered the Draft Kings Pro Football pick Up
- 5:52Speaker 1: National Championship. We will decide what picks we should put
- 5:56Speaker 1: in five picks every week before we get to that
- 5:59Speaker 1: re cap. Though of this past week. One more thing,
- 6:02Speaker 1: another reminder. We are bringing back the cash fee will
- 6:05Speaker 1: phrase that pays contest. We got a lot so many
- 6:08Speaker 1: good reviews to talk about at the other show. From
- 6:11Speaker 1: now through the end of the season, we are giving
- 6:13Speaker 1: a lucky listener one dollars for every game we win
- 6:16Speaker 1: each week, which means everybody should root for us every
- 6:18Speaker 1: week and review the podcast because they can win up
- 6:21Speaker 1: to five and we're giving an equal amount to the
- 6:24Speaker 1: charity of the winner's choice. We have been giving away
- 6:27Speaker 1: money to charity to be eligible. Go review the podcast
- 6:32Speaker 1: using the phrase Simon says, every point matters, and if
- 6:38Speaker 1: we like it, Matt Mitchell will randomly choose it. You
- 6:41Speaker 1: will win the money and your charity will win some money.
- 6:46Speaker 1: Every pick we make, every data point we discuss. It's
- 6:50Speaker 1: all available in the Action network Gap. It's free, it's
- 6:52Speaker 1: award winning. Go downloaded. Follow at Simon Hunter. Get all
- 6:55Speaker 1: of our picks every single Sunday. By noon, you will
- 6:59Speaker 1: know what we're going to be betting on in the
- 7:01Speaker 1: draft Kings Pro Football, pick him National Championship. I went
- 7:06Speaker 1: over our notes, Simon, because we ended up going too
- 7:08Speaker 1: and three this week. Okay, I went over our notes because,
- 7:11Speaker 1: like I was so broken up on Sunday. You mentioned
- 7:13Speaker 1: that Niners game as well, like they were on the
- 7:16Speaker 1: verge of covering the back door and then they throw
- 7:18Speaker 1: that interception in the end zone. The games we loved,
- 7:21Speaker 1: we loved the Bucks left out the Fins. I can't
- 7:24Speaker 1: remember why. Oh, we left out the Fins because we
- 7:29Speaker 1: liked him. At two and a half, the line got
- 7:30Speaker 1: to three, so it was a coin flip. Then in
- 7:32Speaker 1: the end between Washington and Denver for our last game,
- 7:36Speaker 1: what happened here? This is your job. You gotta be
- 7:39Speaker 1: my savior. You said there was no way we'd put
- 7:42Speaker 1: Denver in. You somehow let me course into put in
- 7:44Speaker 1: Denver in. We lost because I am an idiot man
- 7:48Speaker 1: I just Denver just always has so much value. But
- 7:51Speaker 1: Drew lock is just crap man throwing four interceptions in
- 7:55Speaker 1: that game after the game he had against Atlanta. Kid
- 7:58Speaker 1: is not a pro quarterback. You will not be in
- 8:00Speaker 1: this league. The Broncos are hoping they can go maybe
- 8:03Speaker 1: three and thirteen now and get a top pick because
- 8:06Speaker 1: he's not the answer. So it definitely hurt. And the
- 8:10Speaker 1: funniest part was you texting me about the Washington That's
- 8:12Speaker 1: what I'm saying, Chat, you're cursing my friend. I'm telling
- 8:14Speaker 1: you you have the power. You text me about Washington.
- 8:17Speaker 1: They're down twenty four to three. Guess what Washington does.
- 8:21Speaker 1: I scored twenty one straight points and cover that number
- 8:24Speaker 1: that we would have got four and a half. So yeah, man,
- 8:27Speaker 1: it was brue especially when we talked to the fund.
- 8:28Speaker 1: I said, we literally went five and on the one pms.
- 8:31Speaker 1: It's gonna be tough run here the four pms to
- 8:33Speaker 1: get wins, and yeah, it didn't break our way. But
- 8:37Speaker 1: at the same time, man, we went two and three.
- 8:39Speaker 1: The best bets in the competition went one and four,
- 8:42Speaker 1: So overall we lost a little bit. We're still in
- 8:45Speaker 1: the top fifties. We didn't lose that much ground luckily.
- 8:48Speaker 1: All Right, So right now, at what place are we in?
- 8:51Speaker 1: I'll have to look. We're fifty four last night, and
- 8:53Speaker 1: I know a decent amount of people have the Bears.
- 8:55Speaker 1: Because the Bears, I think we're three and a half
- 8:56Speaker 1: in the pickpool. So I'll have to look again. Jesus Christ,
- 9:00Speaker 1: we dropped from too. Yeah, but that's what I'm saying.
- 9:04Speaker 1: We're only four behind the lead. That's what it's just,
- 9:06Speaker 1: so everything so close every week it counts, man, that's
- 9:09Speaker 1: why we're like, yeah, that that hurts these we keep
- 9:12Speaker 1: losing these games by half a point. Like if you
- 9:14Speaker 1: just add those three games this year we've lost by
- 9:17Speaker 1: half a point, we'd be literally back one game of
- 9:19Speaker 1: the lead. So we just gotta keep dodging these really
- 9:23Speaker 1: bad weeks. As long as we'renna have own five, one
- 9:25Speaker 1: and four, we're gonna be in the money come the end.
- 9:27Speaker 1: So I still got high hopes. I just had a
- 9:31Speaker 1: sip of water and it was delicious. Uh. Last night
- 9:35Speaker 1: last night I went downstairs and my wife said to me,
- 9:39Speaker 1: can you make it's a dickie sauce, you know, like
- 9:43Speaker 1: the Greek yogurt sauce, and I'm like, I can do that.
- 9:47Speaker 1: So I I got out the Greek yogurt, and I
- 9:52Speaker 1: got out of cucumber, and I got out the lemon
- 9:54Speaker 1: and the garlic, and I like graded the cucumber and like,
- 9:58Speaker 1: you gotta squeeze out the wa or the cucumber, and
- 10:00Speaker 1: I did in a bowl, and afterwards I put that
- 10:04Speaker 1: water in a picture and then put water and lemon
- 10:06Speaker 1: in there. So today I'm having cucumber, lemon, lemon water,
- 10:09Speaker 1: and it's like it's it's healing. It's almost taking away
- 10:14Speaker 1: the sting from the cardinals not covering that bet. What
- 10:17Speaker 1: a breakdown that was, Oh my god, and I don't
- 10:23Speaker 1: know how to handle it. It's like I want to
- 10:25Speaker 1: come at you for being such a nerd, but it
- 10:27Speaker 1: sounds amazing and delicious and I might have to make
- 10:30Speaker 1: some after we get done here. It's so refreshing and
- 10:32Speaker 1: it was so easy. All right, all right, listen, we
- 10:37Speaker 1: are in fifty four place. We got a lot to
- 10:39Speaker 1: look forward to, we got a lot of ground to
- 10:40Speaker 1: make up. We're only four games out of first. We're
- 10:42Speaker 1: still gonna make some money. And this thing, we got
- 10:44Speaker 1: our big balls better the week we got our Hornets
- 10:46Speaker 1: nest better the week, we got a Survivor Pick of
- 10:48Speaker 1: the week. We had the Packers last week. I was
- 10:51Speaker 1: never worried about it. It looked fantastic. I was mostly
- 10:54Speaker 1: worried that game was gonna go over. It did not, Simon,
- 10:59Speaker 1: Bears did not come through for you last night. We're
- 11:01Speaker 1: going to move on from that. The Cardinals are visiting
- 11:05Speaker 1: the Seahawks, and right now on DraftKings, the Cardinals are
- 11:08Speaker 1: three and a half point road dogs. What do we
- 11:14Speaker 1: think of that? Right now? You don't think about it.
- 11:17Speaker 1: You just take the Seahawks. It's annoying that it's three
- 11:20Speaker 1: and a half, um, but I'll take it. I got
- 11:24Speaker 1: this at five and a half, so in my mind,
- 11:25Speaker 1: I think I'm getting good value. I like the opening
- 11:27Speaker 1: number of four and a half. I took that. Now
- 11:29Speaker 1: it's down to three and a half, I'll take Seahawks again.
- 11:32Speaker 1: It's just a situational play where the Seahawks. About two weeks,
- 11:35Speaker 1: they've they've looked terrible. They've had two close games with
- 11:40Speaker 1: the Cardinals. The Cardinals lost the game by three points,
- 11:43Speaker 1: and then they just won a game in dramatic fashion,
- 11:45Speaker 1: and a lot of people think This is gonna be
- 11:48Speaker 1: like a spark to me. It's one of these the
- 11:50Speaker 1: Cardinals players today on Tuesday, you think they're really thinking
- 11:53Speaker 1: about the Seahawks. You still think they're thinking about Sunday,
- 11:55Speaker 1: and they already beat the Seahawks. The Seahawks need this
- 11:59Speaker 1: game desperately, especially on a two game slide. I'm happy
- 12:03Speaker 1: to take the Seahawks here and back Russell Wilson. I
- 12:05Speaker 1: know that the defense is played terrible for the Seahawks,
- 12:08Speaker 1: but this just seems like a situational play where you
- 12:11Speaker 1: have to take the Seahawks at home here, and I'm
- 12:13Speaker 1: gonna take them. You bet the Seahawks at five and
- 12:16Speaker 1: a half. You bet him again at four and a half. No,
- 12:18Speaker 1: I bet him at four and a half. I said,
- 12:20Speaker 1: I had him at five and a half. Of my Yeah, okay,
- 12:23Speaker 1: you've got empower later to five and a half five
- 12:26Speaker 1: and a half as well. Uh, you're listen, you're against
- 12:29Speaker 1: the wise guys in this. The money has been coming
- 12:31Speaker 1: in obviously. You can see that the money came in
- 12:33Speaker 1: on this on the Cardinals at five and a half
- 12:35Speaker 1: and four and a half. So you bet the Seahawks
- 12:37Speaker 1: at the middle of the number. Yeah, I'm just I
- 12:41Speaker 1: just wanted to get it early because I was worried
- 12:43Speaker 1: the public is gonna come in on it. But that's fine, man,
- 12:46Speaker 1: It's not even the sharp money. If you just look
- 12:48Speaker 1: at the numbers. It's every week these Thursday road teams
- 12:51Speaker 1: have been covering, and I think people are just riding
- 12:53Speaker 1: the trend and they're thinking themselves, I'm getting three and
- 12:55Speaker 1: a half, four and a half, five and a half
- 12:57Speaker 1: with a road team here, why wouldn't I take it?
- 12:58Speaker 1: So that's why to me, it feels like this is
- 13:01Speaker 1: the sharp side taking the Seahawks. It is not everyone's
- 13:03Speaker 1: gonna take this side just because they've been so bad.
- 13:06Speaker 1: I think I'm with you. I'm with the Seahawks in mind,
- 13:08Speaker 1: if I can get the Seahawks, like if this continues
- 13:10Speaker 1: to move down, and it could with the money and
- 13:12Speaker 1: the and the best coming in on the Cardinals, I'm
- 13:14Speaker 1: gonna wait and see if I can get the Seahawks
- 13:16Speaker 1: at minus three. And I mean you could buy right now.
- 13:19Speaker 1: Wouldn't be terrible value, Probably be minus one at minus three,
- 13:22Speaker 1: which isn't terrible. Um. In my mind, if this goes
- 13:25Speaker 1: to my student competition, this might be our first Thursday
- 13:28Speaker 1: Play of the Year. We might have to take this one.
- 13:31Speaker 1: I'm with you, man, you know what, We're in fifty
- 13:34Speaker 1: four place, there's six weeks left in the competition. It's
- 13:39Speaker 1: trying to make some It's time for the game theory
- 13:43Speaker 1: to reveal itself. I'm with you. Were are We're playing
- 13:51Speaker 1: a little bit of The Queen's Gambit. Oh, Chad, my man.
- 13:54Speaker 1: I finally watched it. So good, right, so good. I mean,
- 13:59Speaker 1: I don't want to ruin the ending for people, but
- 14:01Speaker 1: that whole thing was kind of corny where it was like, oh,
- 14:04Speaker 1: the Americans are helping each other. This is so wonderful.
- 14:07Speaker 1: It was like this, chicks, hey, don't ruin it. Don't
- 14:12Speaker 1: ruin it. But I gotta tell you, that's exactly what
- 14:16Speaker 1: I said to my wife. We were sipping our cucumber
- 14:19Speaker 1: and lemon water. We're watching The Queen's Gambit on Netflix,
- 14:22Speaker 1: and I said to her, this, this ending is so
- 14:27Speaker 1: not in line with the spirit of the show. Like
- 14:30Speaker 1: the show like had an edge and it was dark
- 14:34Speaker 1: and like like it wasn't a show in which it
- 14:37Speaker 1: had naturally happy endings, and like for this to be
- 14:41Speaker 1: the ending of the show, it almost like she went soft.
- 14:44Speaker 1: Everybody in the show went soft, Like it just sort
- 14:48Speaker 1: of it disappointed me. It totally disappointed me. But I
- 14:51Speaker 1: love this show regardless. She's amazing. You know, the actress game,
- 14:55Speaker 1: but she was amazing. Stories were amazing. The obsessiveness, I
- 14:58Speaker 1: gotta tell you, the obsessiveness with chess reminded me a
- 15:02Speaker 1: lot about like people's obsessiveness with gambling and like gambling
- 15:05Speaker 1: culture and sort of how you think about the moves
- 15:07Speaker 1: and the maneuvers and all that kind of stuff. It
- 15:09Speaker 1: was fascinating. Yeah, and it's one of those where we
- 15:12Speaker 1: all went through a chess phase. I don't know if
- 15:13Speaker 1: you either went to summer camp or you and your
- 15:16Speaker 1: friends used to just when you're in like six seventh
- 15:17Speaker 1: grade just played chess for like two months straight. We
- 15:20Speaker 1: all went through that phase. When you're watching, it just
- 15:22Speaker 1: brings it back where it was like, man, this is
- 15:25Speaker 1: just it is such a beautiful, simple game. And the
- 15:27Speaker 1: fact that they nerd out on the show where they're
- 15:30Speaker 1: breaking it down, which is like hilarious. Listen to their like,
- 15:33Speaker 1: oh and in nineteen thirty three he moved to queen
- 15:35Speaker 1: square four and it's like what is happening? But like
- 15:39Speaker 1: the problem with gambling. It's been underground for so long,
- 15:42Speaker 1: we don't really we have a couple of legends, like guys,
- 15:44Speaker 1: we've written books Legends of the sports betting world. Well
- 15:48Speaker 1: we don't have it because it's been underground for so
- 15:50Speaker 1: long that like we don't have these guys. So now
- 15:52Speaker 1: that's what's cool about nowadays it's becoming legalize. You're starting
- 15:55Speaker 1: to hear more names, and it is cool here in
- 15:58Speaker 1: all these like old legendary stories and you're definitely right
- 16:01Speaker 1: where the following the exact same people obsess about people
- 16:05Speaker 1: really good at sports betting, So it's it's pretty pretty
- 16:08Speaker 1: cool mixing the two and talking about that. I mean,
- 16:10Speaker 1: some people would say, you're talking to one of the
- 16:12Speaker 1: legends who's sort of defined sports betting from mainstream culture,
- 16:17Speaker 1: apprecially saying that about me chat, you're a minch. You're
- 16:20Speaker 1: a real minch. Like looking in the mirror, the Titans
- 16:26Speaker 1: on the road at the Ravens six and a half
- 16:29Speaker 1: point dogs, the bets of the money coming in on
- 16:35Speaker 1: the Tennessee Titans smash the Ravens, smash the Ravens under
- 16:41Speaker 1: a touchdown in this game, Go talk me off it.
- 16:45Speaker 1: I hate it because he has looked bad Lamar and
- 16:48Speaker 1: their offense looks so staggnant right now. But this is
- 16:51Speaker 1: this we have to play the situation. Will buy low
- 16:56Speaker 1: team and the Ravens that they've played two road games
- 16:59Speaker 1: that won one, they look terrible the other one just
- 17:01Speaker 1: because of the mon soon, and we've seen it. I
- 17:05Speaker 1: feel like Tannehill and not that he's turned back into
- 17:07Speaker 1: a pumpkin, but like I don't have faith in him
- 17:11Speaker 1: putting putting money behind him anymore. Where Lamar, I still
- 17:14Speaker 1: have the idea that back my mind this this guy,
- 17:16Speaker 1: if he has a lead, he's gonna win. But the
- 17:19Speaker 1: statistic I saw he's oh and six now when he's
- 17:22Speaker 1: down ten in any game. So that's one of those
- 17:24Speaker 1: where I'm happy to take the Ravens. And if you're
- 17:26Speaker 1: if you're a lot better, as soon as the Ravens
- 17:29Speaker 1: get down ten, you have to ride the train. You
- 17:31Speaker 1: have to take the Titans live. Because this is this
- 17:35Speaker 1: is getting to a point now with Lamar that we
- 17:36Speaker 1: he's had real stinker games and he loses the good
- 17:40Speaker 1: teams that that one we have to kind of throughout
- 17:43Speaker 1: the Patriots because of the weather. This is not a
- 17:46Speaker 1: good team in my mind the Titans, and I'm happy
- 17:49Speaker 1: riding with you and taking the mind the six and
- 17:50Speaker 1: a half. Alright, I have no concern like that to
- 17:55Speaker 1: me is a locket in pick right now. All right,
- 17:58Speaker 1: I'll put it in. Well, let's talk about on Sunday.
- 18:03Speaker 1: Panthers minus one, minus one and a half right now
- 18:07Speaker 1: at DraftKings at home against the Lions. Christian McCaffrey doubtful.
- 18:12Speaker 1: Teddy Bridgewater uh left the game with a right knee injury.
- 18:17Speaker 1: I don't know his status right now. Um, there's no
- 18:21Speaker 1: fucking way I'm taking the Lions on the road like
- 18:23Speaker 1: in a gaming which is essentially winner wins. Yeah, I'm
- 18:28Speaker 1: cool with pass and I'm definitely going to line side
- 18:30Speaker 1: in this where you're you're exactly right that the they're
- 18:34Speaker 1: finally banged up. The Panthers, they have too many injuries
- 18:37Speaker 1: for me to back. I would love to take them
- 18:38Speaker 1: here as a home team, but I can't do it.
- 18:42Speaker 1: And if they're gonna have Golladay back on Detroit, I'm
- 18:45Speaker 1: happy to take Detroit. So I'm with you. Let's just
- 18:47Speaker 1: put let's put on the side. I want to put
- 18:49Speaker 1: this one in. Well, it's interesting to me that you
- 18:53Speaker 1: like the Lions though, Yeah, it's just situational, where like
- 18:58Speaker 1: if I want to back and banged up Anthers team,
- 19:01Speaker 1: It's just it doesn't feel like it's smart form. Where
- 19:04Speaker 1: I had this line of minus two and a half
- 19:05Speaker 1: for the Detroit I thought this was gonna hang when
- 19:08Speaker 1: they put it up just because of the injury. It's
- 19:10Speaker 1: interesting where I feel like they're saying here that Bridgewater
- 19:13Speaker 1: is probably gonna play, or maybe there's not that much
- 19:15Speaker 1: difference between Bridgewater and the backup QB. But I can't
- 19:19Speaker 1: do I would have to take the lines here, especially
- 19:21Speaker 1: if Teddy's not gonna practice in all week. Oh my god,
- 19:26Speaker 1: you know what's going to happen. I know we're putting
- 19:28Speaker 1: them there. I hate it. Fucking Sunday is gonna come
- 19:31Speaker 1: around and you're gonna text me and lie by the way,
- 19:34Speaker 1: here's what happens on Sunday. On Sunday morning, when you
- 19:37Speaker 1: usually texted me, I met my kitchen counter and I'm
- 19:39Speaker 1: getting ready for the eleven am show that we do
- 19:42Speaker 1: on at Action Network HQ called The Innvinced Me, Convince Me,
- 19:46Speaker 1: where like Chris Raybon and from the Action Network podcast
- 19:50Speaker 1: and Action Network Senior writer and Matthew Friedman from the
- 19:53Speaker 1: Action Network and Sean Corner from the Action Network. They
- 19:55Speaker 1: all try to convince me of the side the total
- 19:57Speaker 1: in the player prop I should make. It's a great show, right,
- 20:00Speaker 1: So I'm usually prepping when you're doing that, And the
- 20:02Speaker 1: mistake I make is I don't bring my notes from
- 20:04Speaker 1: my office down to the third down to the first floor,
- 20:07Speaker 1: and so when you're texting me these things, I don't
- 20:09Speaker 1: remember everything we talked about my notes in front of me,
- 20:12Speaker 1: so I know, like the lions are gonna be there.
- 20:13Speaker 1: I'm gonna like, yeah, that sounds good, let's do it.
- 20:16Speaker 1: And I'm gonna forget how much I hate the lines
- 20:18Speaker 1: in this game. Yeah, you should just change my name
- 20:21Speaker 1: in your context to have a chance to win a
- 20:23Speaker 1: million dollars. So every time I call you a text
- 20:26Speaker 1: you you'll be like, Okay, let me go get everything
- 20:28Speaker 1: in place here so I can give my best chance
- 20:30Speaker 1: to win a million dollars. Yeah, like that time we
- 20:32Speaker 1: went one and fourth. Hey, now the Steelers are on
- 20:36Speaker 1: the road at the Jaguars nine and a half point favorites.
- 20:41Speaker 1: This is an ugly number for me. Um, I'd like
- 20:44Speaker 1: to hear what you have this power rated at bets
- 20:46Speaker 1: and money all coming in on the Steelers, but like,
- 20:51Speaker 1: this team hasn't looked good. I had this at ten,
- 20:53Speaker 1: it's ten and a half, so I'm getting value on
- 20:56Speaker 1: the Jags. The thing that worries me is I've had
- 20:58Speaker 1: two straight weeks now. I took the jag Is against Houston,
- 21:01Speaker 1: they covered that on a little back door. Took them
- 21:04Speaker 1: against green Bay because we talked about on the show
- 21:06Speaker 1: the fourteen that's a lot of points and it ended
- 21:08Speaker 1: up coming down to the wire. I think that what
- 21:10Speaker 1: they lose by four and again, like I don't want
- 21:15Speaker 1: to do it, but we gotta take the Jacks here
- 21:17Speaker 1: time and a half against the Pittsburgh team that if
- 21:20Speaker 1: we just go through the history of them and the Jacks,
- 21:22Speaker 1: why does it feel like every time something happens with
- 21:25Speaker 1: the Jags either beat him or keep the games close.
- 21:27Speaker 1: I mean, we all remember that Bordles year, that Bortles
- 21:30Speaker 1: is not a good quarterback. He went to Pittsburgh against
- 21:34Speaker 1: Levian Bell and Antonio Brown and he outscored him. I
- 21:37Speaker 1: think they beat the Pittsburgh that you're like forty four
- 21:40Speaker 1: to like thirty three or something crazy like that. So
- 21:43Speaker 1: on my mind, it just seems like it's one of
- 21:45Speaker 1: those teams that they just the Patriots of the Pittsburgh
- 21:48Speaker 1: always has problems with the Patriots and the Jaguars, And
- 21:51Speaker 1: in my mind, I'll take the ten and a half
- 21:53Speaker 1: of the Jacks. But I don't feel great about it.
- 21:55Speaker 1: But it's just a situational play. But it's also like
- 21:58Speaker 1: Mike Tomlin as a coach, his team's underperformed when they
- 22:03Speaker 1: are going against really bad teams. We saw it against
- 22:06Speaker 1: the Cowboys. Yeah, it's you're so right where maybe we
- 22:11Speaker 1: should just put it in because we've been missing out
- 22:13Speaker 1: in the Jackson. We've been getting good numbers and we've
- 22:14Speaker 1: just been too scared to put him in. So maybe
- 22:16Speaker 1: we put down the side as and maybe play with
- 22:18Speaker 1: the Sunda. Patriots UH on the road two point favorites
- 22:24Speaker 1: all of a sudden, Not of a sudden, the Patriots
- 22:26Speaker 1: are a juggernaut. UH. Two point favorites at the Texans.
- 22:31Speaker 1: The only reason against me, pause is the Patriots have
- 22:34Speaker 1: had the Texas number number for I can't remember how
- 22:36Speaker 1: many years. But how do we not take the Texas
- 22:40Speaker 1: as a home dog here against the Patriots team coming
- 22:42Speaker 1: off a huge prime time win in a game that
- 22:46Speaker 1: who knows, maybe the weather wasn't the big factor in it,
- 22:48Speaker 1: but I can't see New England stringing together a lot
- 22:52Speaker 1: of wins here that like this would be their third
- 22:54Speaker 1: win in a row. I know that Technas are horrible
- 22:58Speaker 1: and they've played horrible against Cleveland, but it's hard for
- 23:01Speaker 1: me not to take the Texans here. And I'm hoping
- 23:04Speaker 1: this number gets the three because then it's an automatic
- 23:06Speaker 1: play in with Texans. If this is plus three, you
- 23:08Speaker 1: have to take the Texans. I think my challenge with
- 23:11Speaker 1: the Texans this year is they're awful. Well, yeah, they're
- 23:15Speaker 1: just a bad football team. They're bad, Yeah, They're just
- 23:17Speaker 1: all around bad. And it's like I've always been a
- 23:20Speaker 1: huge Texans backer and and like aired on the side
- 23:25Speaker 1: of misery when it comes to betting on the Texans,
- 23:28Speaker 1: But this year I've been avoiding it and my Sundays
- 23:30Speaker 1: have been a lot more pleasant. I'm with you on that.
- 23:33Speaker 1: That's the hardest part about that division is they have
- 23:35Speaker 1: the Jags in the Houston and it they're both like
- 23:38Speaker 1: one and seven, Like, how do we know the Culture
- 23:41Speaker 1: Titans are even good teams? It's like in that division,
- 23:43Speaker 1: it's it's brutal, right now, you know what, Well, obviously
- 23:48Speaker 1: set me up for the transition. Here the Philadelphia Eagles
- 23:52Speaker 1: on the road at the Browns. The Browns are three
- 23:54Speaker 1: point favorites. Numbers gone down from three and a half
- 23:58Speaker 1: to three. The Eagles are dreadful. The Browns could barely
- 24:03Speaker 1: beat the Texans, like we got bad and worse. Here
- 24:08Speaker 1: Eagles are awful. And this is the classic situational play
- 24:12Speaker 1: where you take the Eagles there. Whenever they play good
- 24:15Speaker 1: teams on the road where everyone leaves it for dead,
- 24:17Speaker 1: they somehow when these games outright. So in my mind,
- 24:22Speaker 1: taking the Eagles here, I loved it. At three and
- 24:23Speaker 1: a half the sharpest. Obviously come in because I'm the
- 24:26Speaker 1: public is going to be all over the Browns this week,
- 24:29Speaker 1: and I have to take the Eagle. Especially if it's
- 24:31Speaker 1: three and a half. You're setting us up for the
- 24:34Speaker 1: most miserable Sunday before Thanksgiving. Ever, like this day is
- 24:39Speaker 1: gonna fucking suck. We're gonna bet the Jags, the Texans
- 24:44Speaker 1: the Eagles. Are you kidding me? This is how we're
- 24:47Speaker 1: gonna win a million dollars. This is how we're going
- 24:49Speaker 1: into It's it's game theory season. Man, we gotta be
- 24:52Speaker 1: playing some fucking chess while everyone else is playing checkers.
- 24:56Speaker 1: And if chess means like the Jags, the Texans, and
- 24:59Speaker 1: the Eagles are gonna be our pawn, our rook, and
- 25:03Speaker 1: our night, I don't know if I can live with that.
- 25:07Speaker 1: That's why this game is a fucking hornet and us.
- 25:08Speaker 1: My friend, you gotta walk in there with me. WHOA, whoa?
- 25:12Speaker 1: Did we walk into the hornets nest? I'm walking to
- 25:15Speaker 1: a fucking hornets nest? All right? Now, be my companion.
- 25:18Speaker 1: No one's walking in with us. No one wants to
- 25:20Speaker 1: bet on the Eagles here, and we're due for a
- 25:22Speaker 1: week of these ugly dogs like winning and covering out right.
- 25:26Speaker 1: There's it's been too steady of these favorites just winning
- 25:29Speaker 1: out right, like the Joe Schmo betters, the guy that
- 25:31Speaker 1: do these ten team parlays, of all the money lines
- 25:34Speaker 1: they've been cashing, because these favorites have just been winning
- 25:37Speaker 1: out right. So I'm ready for an ugly week. This
- 25:40Speaker 1: is gonna be a good dog week. I got a
- 25:41Speaker 1: good feeling. I feel like this is the week where
- 25:43Speaker 1: we're putting our chips on the table. We're just going
- 25:46Speaker 1: all in and we're saying we are going for the
- 25:48Speaker 1: win this week, and we're gonna choose all the teams
- 25:51Speaker 1: that we know everyone ahead of us is not gonna pick,
- 25:53Speaker 1: and we're trying to make up. It's like we're going
- 25:55Speaker 1: for the home run. We are trying to make it
- 25:57Speaker 1: all up in one week. Not at all. These are
- 25:59Speaker 1: just you're in good value here. This is this is
- 26:01Speaker 1: how it gets late in the season where you gotta
- 26:04Speaker 1: fade public perception. You can't really play what happened last week.
- 26:07Speaker 1: You got to think about the whole piece and the
- 26:09Speaker 1: team we're looking at. And in my mind, everyone this
- 26:12Speaker 1: week in our competition, they're all going to be on
- 26:14Speaker 1: the Browns, They're all gonna be on the Patriots. So
- 26:17Speaker 1: it is game three where if we hit these ones,
- 26:19Speaker 1: these are double ups where we can get good gaining
- 26:21Speaker 1: on these guys ahead of us. So I'm with you.
- 26:23Speaker 1: It's it's ugly. I don't feel great about it, but
- 26:26Speaker 1: I have to play these numbers because they're good lines.
- 26:28Speaker 1: What you're saying is we got to see the whole board.
- 26:32Speaker 1: Gotta little West wing reference for the fans out there.
- 26:36Speaker 1: Next up Atlanta at New Orleans. I mean who knows
- 26:40Speaker 1: what's happening with Drew Brees. So let's assume that he's
- 26:43Speaker 1: not gonna be playing for the next two weeks. That's
- 26:45Speaker 1: actually information that we know. The question is Sean Payton
- 26:49Speaker 1: has said he won't say who's starting, Jamis or Taysom Hill.
- 26:52Speaker 1: How do you rate this game? Let's assume it's gonna
- 26:56Speaker 1: be Jamis who gets the majority of the snaps? What
- 26:58Speaker 1: do you have this number at? How can I power
- 27:01Speaker 1: rate this? It's impossible to know without the quarterback, the
- 27:03Speaker 1: most important position on the field. When I had to
- 27:05Speaker 1: sign with Drew Brees, I had at minus seven. This
- 27:08Speaker 1: is always a battle. I would have been really happy
- 27:10Speaker 1: to take the Falcons because I probably would have been
- 27:12Speaker 1: up there. But with Winston, if he's really gonna be
- 27:15Speaker 1: the starter, we know what Jamis is. Jamis is terrible.
- 27:18Speaker 1: He might have these moments of brilliance where he throws
- 27:20Speaker 1: a deep ball that's really good, and hey, maybe he'll
- 27:23Speaker 1: show up in this game his first game as a starter,
- 27:25Speaker 1: and play well. But in my mind, I had to
- 27:28Speaker 1: take the Falcons here. It's a divisional game. Winston is
- 27:32Speaker 1: the quarterback that should be minus three. I'm happy to
- 27:34Speaker 1: take the plus five right now. Well, now you just
- 27:37Speaker 1: kind of convinced me and maybe think maybe we gotta
- 27:39Speaker 1: put the Falcons in here too. We might have to.
- 27:42Speaker 1: We'll keep it on the list here, but I'm excited
- 27:45Speaker 1: to have a Sunday where we get to add the Falcons,
- 27:47Speaker 1: my least favorite team in NFL history, uh to our
- 27:51Speaker 1: quest to win one million dollars. Nothing would make me
- 27:55Speaker 1: happier than a sunday on the couch sitting with my
- 27:58Speaker 1: fourteen year old son, with him watching me breakdown in
- 28:03Speaker 1: ways that you cannot possibly conceive and would never want
- 28:07Speaker 1: one of your children to see. Bye bye. I was
- 28:10Speaker 1: betting on the Falcons. I'll give you one good team
- 28:12Speaker 1: this week. I can promise you that you can, yeah,
- 28:16Speaker 1: one good team that you're just like, Okay, at least
- 28:17Speaker 1: I have this one good team this week. A big
- 28:20Speaker 1: balls better the week now because it's gonna it's not
- 28:23Speaker 1: gonna take that much ball is the better? That's how
- 28:25Speaker 1: good this team is. How are the Jags not our
- 28:27Speaker 1: big balls better the week? Did we skip over that?
- 28:30Speaker 1: Should we be making because I want to give a winner.
- 28:32Speaker 1: I feel bad for the people like that. I don't
- 28:35Speaker 1: want to say how much money I lost in that
- 28:36Speaker 1: forty nine years game, buddy, But like truth, that was
- 28:40Speaker 1: a big bet for your your guy here, and situationally
- 28:44Speaker 1: it was smart. But the referees, the special teams. I mean,
- 28:49Speaker 1: I can't believe how many games got dictated by special
- 28:51Speaker 1: teams last week. And it feels like three different games
- 28:54Speaker 1: dictated by special teams. And we're like, we haven't really
- 28:56Speaker 1: had any of that this whole year. So yeah, you
- 29:00Speaker 1: can read it all right, man, you can read it
- 29:01Speaker 1: all right. It doesn't matter. It's gambling. Well listen, if
- 29:04Speaker 1: you don't want to make the Jags the big balls
- 29:05Speaker 1: better the week, we gotta we gotta come up with one. Soon.
- 29:08Speaker 1: We got the Bengals on the road, one and a
- 29:12Speaker 1: half point dog to the Washington football team. I spoke
- 29:15Speaker 1: too soon, Alex Smith came back to bite me. What
- 29:19Speaker 1: did you take the ugly game? This is like, might
- 29:22Speaker 1: be on a few games I don't bet this year, Like,
- 29:24Speaker 1: if I'm gonna end up betting it, I'll probably end
- 29:26Speaker 1: up on the Bengals. But man, I hate both both
- 29:31Speaker 1: these teams. I just like there's just so many holes
- 29:34Speaker 1: in different spots. And we talked about last week. I
- 29:38Speaker 1: talked about Burrow hitting a rookie wall and it looked
- 29:40Speaker 1: like him and Herbert both hit one last week, And
- 29:44Speaker 1: in my mind, you really shouldn't take a rookie on
- 29:46Speaker 1: the road. But I don't know. I would stay away,
- 29:50Speaker 1: like I can't. I can't give an US an opinion
- 29:52Speaker 1: on it because I honestly had it that minus two
- 29:54Speaker 1: for Washington, they're the better team. They're probably the right side.
- 29:58Speaker 1: But after after last week with Alex Smith, and I
- 30:02Speaker 1: don't like ben on Alex Smith. That's why I don't
- 30:03Speaker 1: want to do it again because it was just so
- 30:05Speaker 1: unenjoyable last week betting on him. Alex Smith, I think
- 30:08Speaker 1: is a professional quarterback and he has succeeded in every
- 30:12Speaker 1: single spot he's been in. He just came out of
- 30:15Speaker 1: a game where he threw passes and brought his team
- 30:19Speaker 1: back from down. The Washington football team has an incredibly
- 30:26Speaker 1: good defensive line. They have a good enough running game
- 30:29Speaker 1: to control the line of scrimmage. Joe Burrow looked like
- 30:33Speaker 1: a wreck against the Steelers, and he was a little
- 30:36Speaker 1: big kimpy exactly, So why wouldn't you take Everyone's gonna
- 30:39Speaker 1: take washing that? So to make me nervous, it's like
- 30:41Speaker 1: do I want it back? Yeah, but right they're not
- 30:43Speaker 1: going to take washing it right now and telling you
- 30:45Speaker 1: the money and the bets are coming in on the Bengals.
- 30:47Speaker 1: Gonna why because everyone is still thinking about Washington as Washington.
- 30:50Speaker 1: They're not thinking about then it's the team that could
- 30:52Speaker 1: be sort of playing its way into the playoffs in
- 30:56Speaker 1: the second half of the year. Whereas everybody else is thinking, Oh,
- 31:00Speaker 1: it's Joe Burrow and like he might be Rookie of
- 31:02Speaker 1: the year. They're not. They didn't watch that game against
- 31:04Speaker 1: the Steelers. That game didn't get any time, So like
- 31:06Speaker 1: they're just thinking Joe Burrow came back and it is
- 31:09Speaker 1: like the best quarter best young quarterback in the game.
- 31:12Speaker 1: I like. I like Washington here, all right, that's chats,
- 31:15Speaker 1: that's chat. You want to make that the big balls
- 31:16Speaker 1: better the week because that takes some balls to bet
- 31:18Speaker 1: on the pirate the one legged man. Alex Smith, Oh,
- 31:21Speaker 1: that is not right. This man, this man is courage
- 31:27Speaker 1: big balls better the week. We're going with Washington. I
- 31:30Speaker 1: can't believe I just talked to myself into Washington. I
- 31:32Speaker 1: hate this team. Something's in that water man. We're doing it.
- 31:38Speaker 1: We're doing it, Washington, don't take it out. Oh my god,
- 31:41Speaker 1: that was a mistake and we're gonna have like the
- 31:43Speaker 1: worst Sunday. Ever. Let's get to the late games. We
- 31:48Speaker 1: got a slate of late games, and we got my
- 31:50Speaker 1: favorite quarterback on my favorite team to bet in the
- 31:53Speaker 1: NFL too, and the Dolphins three and a half point
- 31:56Speaker 1: favorite on the road against the Broncos. We gotta pass
- 32:00Speaker 1: on this game. This is a because A. It's a
- 32:04Speaker 1: Bilow Cell high, which means we have to take the
- 32:06Speaker 1: Broncos and we're not allowed to take the Broncos. So
- 32:11Speaker 1: this is a no brainer. Everything says take to take
- 32:13Speaker 1: the Dolphins in this game. I mean take the Broncos
- 32:16Speaker 1: in this game, and we're not allowed to. Yeah, in
- 32:19Speaker 1: my own pos, my own pickpoles, all this to the Dolphins.
- 32:22Speaker 1: I don't care that it's a trap and that all
- 32:25Speaker 1: the money will be coming on the Dolphins and this
- 32:27Speaker 1: is the worst time to battle the Dolphins. Uh, as
- 32:30Speaker 1: long as Drew lock is the quarterback, I'm with you.
- 32:32Speaker 1: I will not be putting money on Denver, but this
- 32:35Speaker 1: you're on with that. This is you gotta play the
- 32:38Speaker 1: Broncos here, but we're not touching it. Because we're both
- 32:40Speaker 1: on Miami. We're we're done, We're done. What do you
- 32:46Speaker 1: think of the Jets visiting the Chargers and the fact
- 32:49Speaker 1: that the Jets we're ten point dogs when the line opened,
- 32:53Speaker 1: and the money has come in on the Jets and
- 32:56Speaker 1: it's been moved to eight and a half. Those idiots, now,
- 33:02Speaker 1: I'm kidious. I don't know they're they're probably just thinking themselves.
- 33:06Speaker 1: It's Joe Flacco verse, a rookie QB who who looked
- 33:10Speaker 1: like he said that wall. But in my mind, if
- 33:13Speaker 1: boasts back him and Ingram on those two d n s,
- 33:17Speaker 1: Flacco is going to be a statue back there. Um,
- 33:20Speaker 1: I'm happy to take the Chargers, but I would not
- 33:22Speaker 1: put this in the competition. It's just a lot of
- 33:25Speaker 1: points to be laying with them. But this year we've
- 33:30Speaker 1: we've talked about with Joe Flacco. We just don't think
- 33:33Speaker 1: he's a good quarterback. I think he had his game
- 33:36Speaker 1: of the year last week and he still couldn't win
- 33:38Speaker 1: that game. So I'm happy to take the Chargers this week.
- 33:41Speaker 1: Oh no, no, we're not doing We're not putting this
- 33:44Speaker 1: game in the contest. No, I'm just saying Betton Wise
- 33:47Speaker 1: all right, you can take the Chargers. We listen if
- 33:51Speaker 1: you have. By the way, if you have a better
- 33:53Speaker 1: big balls better the week than Washington, feel free to
- 33:56Speaker 1: overrule me. That's I'm a benevolent leader that way. That's fair. Yeah,
- 34:03Speaker 1: But I don't know, Like, if you're telling me that
- 34:06Speaker 1: it's going to be the Cowboys at plus seven and
- 34:09Speaker 1: a half against the Vikings, then I might have to reconsider.
- 34:12Speaker 1: The Packers are plus two and a half on the
- 34:16Speaker 1: road at Indie. M m uh ah. How do we
- 34:23Speaker 1: not take the Packers? Oh? I was just gonna say,
- 34:26Speaker 1: you gotta take the Colts. I can't. I can't do it, man.
- 34:29Speaker 1: After that, because they had such a big win and
- 34:31Speaker 1: the Packers played so bad that situational it just feels
- 34:36Speaker 1: like this is gonna be a really easy bounce back
- 34:38Speaker 1: game for Green Bay where they line up right against
- 34:41Speaker 1: the Colts. Coults are good against the run. I think
- 34:44Speaker 1: the Green Bay scheme is gonna do well against this
- 34:47Speaker 1: cold front scheme, and I think they'll be able to
- 34:49Speaker 1: run it on and I think Roger's able to pass
- 34:51Speaker 1: it on. So in my mind, I think I'm buying
- 34:53Speaker 1: low here on the Packers. I think I'm getting a
- 34:55Speaker 1: good number of plus two and a half. I hate
- 34:58Speaker 1: betting against the home team at less than three. It's
- 35:01Speaker 1: been good to you this year though, like this year
- 35:03Speaker 1: has been weird with the COVID where there hasn't been
- 35:05Speaker 1: a home field. So these road teams under two and
- 35:07Speaker 1: a half, they've been winning and covering. So it's one
- 35:11Speaker 1: of those where I'm with you. Normally i'd probably play
- 35:13Speaker 1: the Colts here, but I have to play the Packers
- 35:15Speaker 1: after last week. I also you mentioned the matchup. The
- 35:20Speaker 1: Colts defense can fly around, the Colts defense can get
- 35:23Speaker 1: to the quarterback, and they created a lot of turnovers. Yeah,
- 35:29Speaker 1: I can't doubt that. But at the same time, it's
- 35:32Speaker 1: Rivers man like. He played really well last week, so
- 35:35Speaker 1: I'm expecting this week he'll play the crap because he's
- 35:37Speaker 1: been doing it all year. He'll have a good week
- 35:39Speaker 1: that a bad week. What do you have a power
- 35:41Speaker 1: rated at? Had a power rate of minus one Packers,
- 35:44Speaker 1: So that's what I mean. I think that. Yeah, I
- 35:47Speaker 1: had them at a road favorite, so I think I'm
- 35:49Speaker 1: getting good value on the Packers, all right. Would this
- 35:53Speaker 1: be the Cowboys at the Vikings seven and a half
- 35:56Speaker 1: point underdogs? Would this be balls better the week if
- 36:01Speaker 1: I hadn't preempted you with the Washington football team. No, honestly,
- 36:08Speaker 1: I was gonna make it. At the end of the show.
- 36:09Speaker 1: It was probably gonna do it. Make it Houston because
- 36:11Speaker 1: it's it's so ugly, everyone's gonna hate it. That's why
- 36:14Speaker 1: I was gonna take such big balls and make that
- 36:16Speaker 1: bet with Houston. But I'm cool with it being Washington
- 36:20Speaker 1: because like in my in my mind, you're you're exactly right,
- 36:22Speaker 1: like my numbers are saying that's the right side, and
- 36:24Speaker 1: I'm I'm overthinking where I don't want to take them
- 36:26Speaker 1: because I just say back in Alex Smith. So I'm
- 36:29Speaker 1: good with that. But this game here, I can't do it.
- 36:31Speaker 1: I cannot take the Cowboys. They they had their everything
- 36:34Speaker 1: game against Pittsburgh. They've had a bye week now most
- 36:39Speaker 1: people are gonna think they're gonna they'll be they'll help
- 36:41Speaker 1: the young QB having more time getting right, getting us
- 36:44Speaker 1: to the offense. I can't do it. I just I
- 36:47Speaker 1: could see Dalvin Cook just destroying one of the worst
- 36:50Speaker 1: run defenses in football in the Cowboys. So I'll take
- 36:54Speaker 1: the high number of the Vikings and I know they're
- 36:55Speaker 1: trying to scare me off with it, but I'm gonna
- 36:58Speaker 1: take this one with the Vikings. At home, we look there,
- 37:01Speaker 1: cowboys are saying that Andy Dalton might play. That's even
- 37:05Speaker 1: worse for them. He's horrible. So you you like it
- 37:12Speaker 1: even more Dalton plays, You like the Vikings even more.
- 37:15Speaker 1: I would that guy as soon as a little thing
- 37:17Speaker 1: goes wrong. We've all seen her for all these years.
- 37:19Speaker 1: He just falls apart and they're old lines, still has
- 37:23Speaker 1: ton of issues, and I just I can't back the Cowboys.
- 37:27Speaker 1: I know it's it's a smart side to take it
- 37:30Speaker 1: because it's such a big number, and Kirk Cousins really
- 37:32Speaker 1: can't cover big numbers like this, But this is more
- 37:35Speaker 1: of a bet on Minnesota control in the game of
- 37:37Speaker 1: the run game. So I like Dalvin Cook to get
- 37:39Speaker 1: right in this game. I like the Vikings here. We
- 37:42Speaker 1: have a text chain a bunch of us at the
- 37:45Speaker 1: Action Network. Matt Mitchell's on it, and last night we
- 37:49Speaker 1: were texting about the Bears game. The Bears were up
- 37:52Speaker 1: thirteen ten, and someone said to me, what the fund
- 37:56Speaker 1: is wrong with this team? And I said, bet the
- 37:59Speaker 1: Viking is live right now, because they're gonna win this
- 38:03Speaker 1: game by ten, and they came close to ten. They
- 38:06Speaker 1: certainly want enough to cover up by I think in
- 38:08Speaker 1: that moment they were they were half a point underdog,
- 38:15Speaker 1: so you clearly would have won. Um. I like this
- 38:18Speaker 1: Vikings team. This Viking seems to me, and we've talked
- 38:21Speaker 1: a lot about this. Actually, Stucky and Raybond on the
- 38:23Speaker 1: Action Network NFL podcast have talked a lot about this,
- 38:26Speaker 1: Like the Vikings were gonna be one of those teams
- 38:29Speaker 1: that early in the year, it was gonna be sort
- 38:32Speaker 1: of training camp because Mike Zimmer didn't know what he
- 38:34Speaker 1: had on defense. He needed time to figure it out.
- 38:37Speaker 1: Now we's had that four weeks they went into the bye.
- 38:39Speaker 1: Since the bye, they've won three straight games there, four
- 38:42Speaker 1: and five. You and I talked about betting them for
- 38:46Speaker 1: the super Bowl, and I believe we both got a
- 38:48Speaker 1: future on them. I don't know if they're gonna win
- 38:50Speaker 1: the super Bowl, but I certainly liked their chances to
- 38:52Speaker 1: make the playoffs right now. Yeah, And that was actually funny.
- 38:56Speaker 1: Someone sent me a photo from I guess we'd like
- 38:59Speaker 1: posted up and maybe it was like May and we
- 39:02Speaker 1: gave out a bunch of bets and the comments are
- 39:06Speaker 1: hilarious because people are just so stupid on Twitter. They're
- 39:09Speaker 1: like yelling at us about how don't we worry about
- 39:11Speaker 1: talking about the Ravens like under win total and the
- 39:14Speaker 1: Pittsburgh to win that division because I think we gave
- 39:16Speaker 1: out a plus like four plus four fifty maybe Pittsburgh
- 39:19Speaker 1: to win that division. And it's just like funny where
- 39:24Speaker 1: now we're at this point the season. I think we
- 39:26Speaker 1: both got Cardinals a like fifty to one or forty
- 39:28Speaker 1: five to want to win the Super Bowl. We've never
- 39:30Speaker 1: felt better. It's like that's a live that's a live
- 39:33Speaker 1: team in the NFC where all these teams, they all
- 39:35Speaker 1: have so many glaring weaknesses. It's such a toss up
- 39:38Speaker 1: year that I'm really hoping they don't do these playoff
- 39:42Speaker 1: formats because there's some of these tickets you have to
- 39:45Speaker 1: read or find print. Say they do move it to
- 39:47Speaker 1: eight teams make the playoffs or whatever weird thing they
- 39:49Speaker 1: might do, they might cancel some of your future bets.
- 39:52Speaker 1: And this is something people need to be aware of
- 39:55Speaker 1: that it depends on the casino and where you bet it.
- 39:59Speaker 1: Some of them might cancer your future. But if they
- 40:01Speaker 1: change the playoffs, because that technically changes what they gave
- 40:04Speaker 1: out and changes the odds. So it'll be something to
- 40:07Speaker 1: keep your eye on. But I'm feeling good right now.
- 40:09Speaker 1: There are futures, but are Bears. I bet they're over
- 40:12Speaker 1: of wins. What the hell? Man, they're five and two, now,
- 40:15Speaker 1: they're five and five. Now I gotta sweat the seven
- 40:18Speaker 1: and seven and a half. This is this is brutal
- 40:20Speaker 1: with these Bears. Man, I don't I said to my
- 40:22Speaker 1: in a different text change last night when minting the Bears,
- 40:26Speaker 1: I was texting with my buddy Matt, and uh, I said,
- 40:30Speaker 1: this is a five and eleven team that's gonna go
- 40:33Speaker 1: higher air at the enemy. I actually want to hate
- 40:36Speaker 1: that move. I just I just love imagining you like
- 40:39Speaker 1: stopping up your stairs, going into your little office here
- 40:41Speaker 1: and ripping down your Bears flag and being like, that'll
- 40:44Speaker 1: show them. I believe the text The text last night was, uh,
- 40:50Speaker 1: you know, we're like, is this is this the worst
- 40:53Speaker 1: offense that we've ever seen in our history of Bears fandom?
- 40:59Speaker 1: And I wrote that one first down since the second
- 41:01Speaker 1: quarter and fourteen total yards, it could be. And then
- 41:04Speaker 1: the next text is after Nick Foles went down, he
- 41:07Speaker 1: just wrote back, I think he's dead, and I wrote back,
- 41:12Speaker 1: I wrote back, seriously, look, his foot is twitching like
- 41:15Speaker 1: he's dead. And and then we were like, this is
- 41:20Speaker 1: the most Bears thing ever to actually kill their quarterback
- 41:25Speaker 1: at the end of the game, in which they're like
- 41:27Speaker 1: flailing away. Um. Yeah, And then we were glad he
- 41:32Speaker 1: was alive. I watched the second like I passed out
- 41:33Speaker 1: early because I had to get up to do stuff
- 41:35Speaker 1: this morning for obviously the podcast, And like, I watched
- 41:39Speaker 1: the second half this morning. How do you not get
- 41:41Speaker 1: an offensive touchdown at home against the Vikings defense that
- 41:46Speaker 1: has no names on the d line, They got no
- 41:48Speaker 1: names in the secondary, and they might have like one
- 41:49Speaker 1: good safety who's been in the league forever. It's oh
- 41:53Speaker 1: Man Bears, Bears, Bears, because that defense is such a waste,
- 41:57Speaker 1: like one of the best defenses in league and it's
- 42:00Speaker 1: just wasted away. But we can we can move on, buddy,
- 42:04Speaker 1: I want to keep reliving the pain with you. That
- 42:06Speaker 1: is a generational comment right there, all right, Chiefs at Raiders.
- 42:13Speaker 1: Chiefs are six and a half point favorites on the
- 42:16Speaker 1: road in Las Vegas. Speaking of Eric b Enemy, future
- 42:19Speaker 1: coach of the Chicago Bears, I don't care that it's
- 42:23Speaker 1: the public play of the week. I want to thank
- 42:26Speaker 1: Vegas ahead of time for moving this down from seven.
- 42:29Speaker 1: Give me the Chiefs. Give it to me, Give it
- 42:31Speaker 1: to me, Give it to me. I love it. After
- 42:33Speaker 1: a bye week we talk all the time, Andy Reid.
- 42:35Speaker 1: After a bye week, he just cover his baby. Don't
- 42:38Speaker 1: think about it. Six and a half Chiefs already lost
- 42:41Speaker 1: the Raiders. The Raiders that supposedly that a victory lapse
- 42:44Speaker 1: around their stadium and busses. Give it to me, the Chiefs, man,
- 42:47Speaker 1: I'm taking the adjusted line to I'll take down mind's
- 42:50Speaker 1: tend and a half them. I love this with the Chiefs,
- 42:54Speaker 1: they're gonna it feels like they're gonna beat the crap
- 42:56Speaker 1: out of this Raiders team. That's an interesting play. Would
- 43:01Speaker 1: you want this to be in the contest over the
- 43:04Speaker 1: crap tactics selection we have so far? I promise you won't.
- 43:09Speaker 1: Good team. This is it, baby, this is the best
- 43:11Speaker 1: team in football. We're gonna have to decide, like who
- 43:14Speaker 1: who's potentially in our top five? Then? Uh Rams visiting
- 43:18Speaker 1: the Buccaneers. The Rams are three three and a half
- 43:22Speaker 1: point underdogs in Tampa. Monday Night Football gotta play the
- 43:29Speaker 1: Bucks here. Looking at this game, these teams match up well,
- 43:34Speaker 1: but the Rams just lost their all pro left tackle
- 43:37Speaker 1: and what do we know about golf. Golf cannot handle pressure,
- 43:42Speaker 1: and in that game, after that tackle went down, they
- 43:44Speaker 1: really didn't do much on offense. So in my mind,
- 43:47Speaker 1: I know the Buccaneers just played the perfect game and
- 43:50Speaker 1: all offense, but I think this is gonna be more
- 43:52Speaker 1: of a defensive game for the Buccaneers. So promptime game,
- 43:55Speaker 1: Tom Brady against Golf. We all know the history here.
- 43:59Speaker 1: We all we're all gonna be taking the Tampa Bay.
- 44:01Speaker 1: So I'm sure to be a public play by the
- 44:03Speaker 1: end of the week. But as long as it stays
- 44:05Speaker 1: under five, I'm happy to take the Buccaneers. Are we
- 44:09Speaker 1: Are we ready to commit to a Monday night game?
- 44:12Speaker 1: If we're ready to commit to a Thursday night game, Yeah,
- 44:15Speaker 1: that's Is that too much for us in one week? Yeah?
- 44:17Speaker 1: It's uh, that's a lot. I mean that basically means
- 44:20Speaker 1: we're in agony from Thursday until Monday. Yeah, so we'll
- 44:26Speaker 1: text about it. But I can't see us fund the
- 44:28Speaker 1: Monday because I like that we're done on Sundays. I
- 44:30Speaker 1: prefer it honestly. All right, so right now the games
- 44:33Speaker 1: that we love and and and again all subject to change. Seahawks,
- 44:39Speaker 1: if we can get it minus three, we are willing
- 44:41Speaker 1: to bet a Thursday night game Ravens minus six and
- 44:45Speaker 1: a half Jags plus ten Texans plus three, which would
- 44:50Speaker 1: be our alternative big Balls Better the Week if if
- 44:57Speaker 1: I'll get to it. We also like the Eagles plus
- 45:00Speaker 1: three against the Browns. That is our hornets nest. We
- 45:04Speaker 1: are walking right into it. The Big Balls Better the
- 45:07Speaker 1: Week courtesy of Chad Millman, Washington minus one and a half.
- 45:14Speaker 1: We also like the Chiefs minus six and a half.
- 45:16Speaker 1: So and then we got the box. But you know what,
- 45:19Speaker 1: I'm taking the bucks out because we don't want to
- 45:20Speaker 1: bet Monday Night. And we finally come to everyone's favorite segment,
- 45:25Speaker 1: Our Survivor, Pick Survivor Pick. Oh god, this is a
- 45:30Speaker 1: tough week man, where they're begging us to take the
- 45:34Speaker 1: Vikings and they're begging us to take the Chargers, and
- 45:38Speaker 1: there's zero chance to use either of them. Yet what
- 45:42Speaker 1: do you want to do? Many? We want to keep
- 45:44Speaker 1: our trend going where we just fade like the Jets.
- 45:46Speaker 1: We know for a fact they're trying to tank. They're
- 45:48Speaker 1: trying to get this normal and pick. There's no doubt
- 45:50Speaker 1: in my mind, especially after watching that Patriots game. They
- 45:54Speaker 1: had that game every which way and they completely gave
- 45:57Speaker 1: it to him at the m there. So I don't
- 46:00Speaker 1: hate taking the Chargers. This is a week we have
- 46:02Speaker 1: to get ready using them. It's a little scary, but
- 46:07Speaker 1: in my mind it's one of those we have to
- 46:09Speaker 1: go against Flaccus though, right, you like the Vikings better.
- 46:17Speaker 1: I have so much more faith in the Vikings. All right,
- 46:21Speaker 1: that should be all right. Everyone going bet Cowboys moneyline
- 46:23Speaker 1: and we'll take the Chargers in our pitful. I'm just kidding.
- 46:29Speaker 1: You are cursed. That you are cursed. I'm not cursed.
- 46:33Speaker 1: I live a fantastic life. You know what it is.
- 46:37Speaker 1: It's not cursed. It's it's like I've been so lucky
- 46:43Speaker 1: in every other way that the betting gods. This is
- 46:47Speaker 1: how they choose that, This is how they choose to
- 46:49Speaker 1: inflict pain on me. No, No, that's the bearst QB. Yeah,
- 46:53Speaker 1: that's how they gets you. That's that's right. Well, that's
- 46:57Speaker 1: been a lifetime of pain and agony, and now I
- 46:59Speaker 1: feel badly I've passed it onto my My fourteen year
- 47:01Speaker 1: old was watching the game and like than just being
- 47:04Speaker 1: on third and long, He's like, what the fuck are
- 47:08Speaker 1: you doing? So yeah, all right, we can just send
- 47:12Speaker 1: it out to the Twitter folks and we'll put the
- 47:14Speaker 1: vikings of their chargers because everyone's gonna be in between
- 47:16Speaker 1: these two and that we're so do for people to
- 47:20Speaker 1: get knocked out these survivor pools. Man, this is like
- 47:22Speaker 1: getting crazy at this point. So we're gonna coin flip.
- 47:26Speaker 1: One of these teams is losing. I feel like we
- 47:28Speaker 1: know that for a fact. We gotta go with the vikings.
- 47:31Speaker 1: All right. We'll making an executive decision right now, putting
- 47:36Speaker 1: all the blame one chat. I like this feeling. I
- 47:38Speaker 1: feel I feel right now I'm taking full responsibility perfect
- 47:43Speaker 1: I can own it, all right. So I gave everybody
- 47:47Speaker 1: our picks once again, running them down. These are the games.
- 47:49Speaker 1: We're gonna choose our five from seas that we can
- 47:52Speaker 1: get at minus three Ravens minus six and a half
- 47:54Speaker 1: Jacks plus ten Texans plus three Equals plus three Washington
- 47:58Speaker 1: minus one and a half Chiefs in the six and
- 48:00Speaker 1: a half, that's what we will choose our five front Simon,
- 48:04Speaker 1: we got to get to our reviews because this one
- 48:07Speaker 1: is so nice and I'm so excited for this person,
- 48:10Speaker 1: and people are asking you can if we don't pick,
- 48:12Speaker 1: you can write another review. It doesn't you can keep
- 48:15Speaker 1: right now. You can write a new one every week
- 48:17Speaker 1: of whatever suits you, man, But eventually you'll get picked.
- 48:19Speaker 1: The numbers work out. Well. Why do people I feel
- 48:22Speaker 1: like nobody asked me these questions on Twitter? I feel
- 48:24Speaker 1: like everyone d ms you on Twitter. I don't get anything.
- 48:26Speaker 1: I'm I'm pretty cool, man. I don't know if you've
- 48:28Speaker 1: noticed by doing this, but I'm pretty pretty cool. So yeah, man,
- 48:32Speaker 1: people are just always d m in the Simon, you know,
- 48:35Speaker 1: O Jesus the Simon now now is the Simon al
- 48:40Speaker 1: right here? We got fans. We have fans to rate
- 48:44Speaker 1: and review the podcast. Those who did and use the
- 48:47Speaker 1: winning phrase in the review were eligible to win up
- 48:50Speaker 1: to five dollars. We have loads and loads of reviews.
- 48:53Speaker 1: In a second, we will reveal this week's winner, but
- 48:57Speaker 1: first we are doing another phrase to pay his contest
- 48:59Speaker 1: From now through the of the year. The winner earns
- 49:02Speaker 1: one for every win Simon and I have in that
- 49:06Speaker 1: week's contest. We will match that number with the donation.
- 49:09Speaker 1: The Action Network will match that number with the donation
- 49:12Speaker 1: to the winner's favorite charity. Go rate and review the
- 49:15Speaker 1: pod using the phrase this week's phrase the pace, Simon says,
- 49:19Speaker 1: every point matters, and we will randomly choose the winner
- 49:23Speaker 1: to get that cash. And by the way, Matt Mitchell
- 49:26Speaker 1: informed me this this morning. A lot of times people
- 49:29Speaker 1: are putting in their reviews, but they have to go
- 49:32Speaker 1: through a approval, an approval process through Apple. So you
- 49:36Speaker 1: might put it in a review this week using Simon
- 49:38Speaker 1: says every point matters, it might not show up until
- 49:40Speaker 1: the week after. So like we have some reviews for
- 49:43Speaker 1: previous phrases that pay and UM that are showing up
- 49:48Speaker 1: like a week later, so we are giving people credit
- 49:52Speaker 1: for that UM. But go rate, go review, you know,
- 49:56Speaker 1: hope that it hope that it wins. Like this week's winner,
- 50:00Speaker 1: kolbe Jasper Hall starts celebrating brother, you just heard your
- 50:04Speaker 1: name on a national podcast diaper money. Let's see uh. Simon,
- 50:13Speaker 1: with the whole hearted support of Chad, says you win.
- 50:16Speaker 1: We give and thank goodness for that, because if I
- 50:18Speaker 1: had to pay fair market for their collective wisdom, I
- 50:21Speaker 1: probably wouldn't have anything left to bet Karma pays it forward.
- 50:25Speaker 1: Isn't that exactly? That is exactly what this podcast does
- 50:28Speaker 1: each and every week. Just like super producer Matt Mitchell
- 50:32Speaker 1: gave up his previous life for an audio storytelling degree,
- 50:36Speaker 1: Chad and Simon give up their privacy to UH invite
- 50:40Speaker 1: listeners in as they navigate the NFL slate, whether you
- 50:45Speaker 1: are faced with the uncertainty of fitting the chiefs or
- 50:48Speaker 1: betting actual money and the falcons, They talked through the
- 50:51Speaker 1: chaos in a way that is intelligent, practical, and relatable.
- 50:57Speaker 1: With ten week twin old girl, ten week old twin
- 50:59Speaker 1: girl is in our household, This possible podcast blah blah
- 51:02Speaker 1: blah has basically become a weekly gift card for diapers.
- 51:06Speaker 1: Guess what, buddy, guess what, Colby You're getting two because
- 51:11Speaker 1: that's the number of games we won last week, and
- 51:14Speaker 1: we're given two hundred dollars to your favorite charity. You're
- 51:16Speaker 1: gonna buy a whole lot of diapers with that money.
- 51:20Speaker 1: Kolbe Jasper Hall, you are the phrase the pays winner.
- 51:24Speaker 1: He said some nice things. Yeah, it sounds like a
- 51:26Speaker 1: nice guy, and I'm happy we can buy more diapers
- 51:28Speaker 1: for him. We're buying us some diapers. And by the way,
- 51:30Speaker 1: thank you, thank you for mentioning Matt Mitchell. He loves that.
- 51:35Speaker 1: It's true. I do totally alright, folks, this has been
- 51:40Speaker 1: the podcast. Make sure you download the app, follow out
- 51:42Speaker 1: Simon Hunter. That's where we will put our final picks
- 51:45Speaker 1: of the week, So go check it out. This has
- 51:48Speaker 1: been the favorite podcast from the Action Network. Download from Apple,
- 51:52Speaker 1: podcast from Spotify, wherever you get your podcast. Until next time,
- 51:58Speaker 1: I love you.