Latest / Toadstool Sports / Saturday BEST BETS | Game 7 | NBA Conference Finals & MLB & WNBA | 5/30/26

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Saturday BEST BETS | Game 7 | NBA Conference Finals & MLB & WNBA | 5/30/26 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:17
  Speaker 1: You gotta slip in your palm. Man, a hole in
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: your chase, the black coffee on the felt.
• 0:23
  Speaker 2: Man, you look like a mess.
• 0:26
  Speaker 1: Three teen Parlette turned the dust in your head.
• 0:29
  Speaker 2: Now you stare at the chips like they made you
• 0:32
  Speaker 2: this man. But don't you go quiet. Don't you fade
• 0:36
  Speaker 2: from the floor.
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: Your name still mean something on somebody for show.
• 0:42
  Speaker 2: Put the glass.
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: Down, baby, look at me.
• 0:46
  Speaker 2: No, hold on, hold on, nothing.
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: Nice now, hold on, hold on and me, but it don't.
• 1:12
  Speaker 2: Get the crown.
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: Hold on, hold on.
• 1:18
  Speaker 2: Stay with me. Now, what's up, everybody? It's Toad back
• 1:29
  Speaker 2: with you with Toadstool Sports. It is Saturday, May thirtieth,
• 1:35
  Speaker 2: one on one on the show yesterday. Not happy about it.
• 1:39
  Speaker 2: Really the overhit in Atlanta and Cincinnati fairly easy with
• 1:45
  Speaker 2: that one. Atlanta did most of the damage, which is
• 1:47
  Speaker 2: kind of what I thought would be the case. They
• 1:49
  Speaker 2: did most of the work to get that over eight
• 1:52
  Speaker 2: to three win there. The first five under Minnesota. Pittsburgh
• 1:57
  Speaker 2: was completely dead. Both started pitchers did better than it
• 2:01
  Speaker 2: looks as far as the amount of runs that they allowed,
• 2:04
  Speaker 2: Like they both were getting strikeouts and whatever. It was
• 2:07
  Speaker 2: just it was very weird. I think they both got
• 2:09
  Speaker 2: a little bit unlucky. That was still it was bad.
• 2:13
  Speaker 2: It was the wrong play. I think the majority of
• 2:16
  Speaker 2: the remainder of the game was lower scoring than that too.
• 2:19
  Speaker 2: I don't know. I don't know what else to say
• 2:21
  Speaker 2: about that, and I had some of my other opinions
• 2:25
  Speaker 2: be correct, so that tends to always be the case.
• 2:28
  Speaker 2: I want to have these ones be my best, but
• 2:31
  Speaker 2: you know, you have to figure out how to select them,
• 2:35
  Speaker 2: and it's it's not that easy. We've hit a bit
• 2:38
  Speaker 2: of a lull, but a one in one day is
• 2:40
  Speaker 2: a very small loss. So whatever. Especially, I think both
• 2:44
  Speaker 2: of those plays I found them at reduced juice. We'll
• 2:47
  Speaker 2: move on to today. I'm gonna have two baseball plays.
• 2:50
  Speaker 2: One is a side, one is a total. They're both
• 2:53
  Speaker 2: first five, and I'm going to give out a play
• 2:55
  Speaker 2: in the NBA game. But I mean, you probably already
• 2:59
  Speaker 2: knew that, and you know what I do, so everybody
• 3:00
  Speaker 2: probably probably already knows what I'm doing in the NBA. Garrett,
• 3:05
  Speaker 2: what's up, Yeah, Cain's I mean, they're the home favorite
• 3:10
  Speaker 2: in the final. The one thing you have to be
• 3:12
  Speaker 2: worried about is they have not been here recently. So
• 3:18
  Speaker 2: Vegas has more recent experience. It seems to be seriously
• 3:22
  Speaker 2: overperformed and Vegas is overperforming. Carolina is the better team,
• 3:26
  Speaker 2: but you do have to worry about the experience coming
• 3:28
  Speaker 2: into play there, although Vegas has been a bad road
• 3:32
  Speaker 2: team though pretty much dirty sock. What's up the over
• 3:36
  Speaker 2: in that game? Uh? It landed what? Seven? I don't know?
• 3:41
  Speaker 2: I mean, how many empty net goals happened in that game?
• 3:44
  Speaker 2: I don't think I would have gone over that just because,
• 3:47
  Speaker 2: like I don't know, Montrealist has put up no offense
• 3:50
  Speaker 2: in that series and Carolina in tends to play low
• 3:52
  Speaker 2: scoring games. Yes, thank you, mister Pinzy. What's up? All right?
• 4:00
  Speaker 2: I'm gonna try to get through all this, man. I'm
• 4:04
  Speaker 2: using wager Talks Odds screen again. They updated their screen here.
• 4:07
  Speaker 2: It's pretty much the same as it was though, but
• 4:10
  Speaker 2: we don't have the total percentages right now, so I
• 4:12
  Speaker 2: hope they fixed that. But I just like this view better,
• 4:15
  Speaker 2: so that's what I'm using. The first baseball game is
• 4:19
  Speaker 2: Detroit and Chicago the White Sox. White Sox won the
• 4:23
  Speaker 2: game yesterday four to three. I thought Detroit had a
• 4:25
  Speaker 2: decent shot at that game, which turned out to be correct.
• 4:29
  Speaker 2: For the White Sox won. White Sox used four relief pictures.
• 4:33
  Speaker 2: It looks like here I wouldn't necessarily trust this page
• 4:37
  Speaker 2: right now, because this page is showing a lot of
• 4:38
  Speaker 2: teams is not having used any relief pictures, which is
• 4:42
  Speaker 2: not true. Detroit used three. According to this Detroit has
• 4:46
  Speaker 2: the slightly less bad bullpen, the ranked twenty second. The
• 4:50
  Speaker 2: White Sox are twenty fourth. Wouldn't really want to trust either,
• 4:53
  Speaker 2: though the White Sox are the better offense the rank six.
• 4:58
  Speaker 2: Detroit has really gone in the tank at twenty six.
• 5:02
  Speaker 2: Not not good things going on for Detroit, but they do
• 5:07
  Speaker 2: have from ber Valdez on the mound. Can he get
• 5:10
  Speaker 2: them a win? Maybe he's got a four point two
• 5:13
  Speaker 2: to eighty ra one point three to three whip. I
• 5:16
  Speaker 2: know it's not that good. I think he is a
• 5:18
  Speaker 2: little bit better than those numbers might suggest. He is
• 5:20
  Speaker 2: pretty good on the road three point eighty three roady Ra.
• 5:25
  Speaker 2: He had that suspension, came back, had a good start,
• 5:28
  Speaker 2: his next start wasn't really that good. Bounce back again
• 5:31
  Speaker 2: with a good start against Baltimore on the road in
• 5:34
  Speaker 2: his most recent start. Although Detroit has lost his last
• 5:37
  Speaker 2: four games, but they have put up three or fewer
• 5:40
  Speaker 2: runs in every one of those, so it's not entirely
• 5:43
  Speaker 2: His fault numbers against the White Sox are bad though,
• 5:46
  Speaker 2: in fifty three at bats three seventy seven average allowed
• 5:49
  Speaker 2: nine oh one ops eight three strikeout walk ratio. So
• 5:53
  Speaker 2: this does not look like the best matchup for him. Here.
• 5:57
  Speaker 2: He will be going up against Anthony Kay, who I
• 6:00
  Speaker 2: just I never trust guys like this man who are
• 6:03
  Speaker 2: in their thirties and then all of a sudden it
• 6:04
  Speaker 2: looks like they're pitching. Well, I'm like, I just don't
• 6:07
  Speaker 2: necessarily buy it. But he's been doing pretty well recently.
• 6:11
  Speaker 2: He's got a three point ninety six RAY in the season,
• 6:14
  Speaker 2: which obviously you can't really argue with that. Well you
• 6:17
  Speaker 2: can because his whip is one point three nine, but
• 6:20
  Speaker 2: I mean his ERA is still pretty good. His whip
• 6:22
  Speaker 2: one point three to nine not really that good. He's
• 6:25
  Speaker 2: good at home though, three point two to one ERA.
• 6:28
  Speaker 2: This month, he's been pretty good. He's got a sub
• 6:31
  Speaker 2: two ERA this month, twenty two hits, a lot in
• 6:34
  Speaker 2: twenty seven and a third innings. White Sox have won
• 6:37
  Speaker 2: four starts of his in a row. He's going five
• 6:40
  Speaker 2: plus innings in every one of them, twenty four strikeouts,
• 6:43
  Speaker 2: nine walks, two or fewer earned runs a lot in
• 6:46
  Speaker 2: every outing. This is pretty good, except the offenses that
• 6:51
  Speaker 2: he faced here were not that good Minnesota, Seattle, Kansas City, Seattle,
• 6:56
  Speaker 2: and San Diego. But then again, of course Detroit is
• 6:59
  Speaker 2: also not good, so he might do well here. His
• 7:02
  Speaker 2: season numbers, though his strikeout rate is definitely low. His
• 7:05
  Speaker 2: walk rate is too high, but it's been better this month,
• 7:09
  Speaker 2: so he is improving. And he's a lot fewer than
• 7:11
  Speaker 2: one hit per inning on the season, which is good.
• 7:14
  Speaker 2: Detroit has basically never seen him. Only Jamai Jones has
• 7:18
  Speaker 2: ever faced him, and he does have a three run
• 7:20
  Speaker 2: double off of him in that one at bat. But
• 7:24
  Speaker 2: that being said, yeah, I think based on the pitching matchup,
• 7:28
  Speaker 2: I probably lean White Sox here. I mean, you could
• 7:31
  Speaker 2: go first five innings. I guess if you really want
• 7:33
  Speaker 2: to take their bullpen out of it, because Detroit says
• 7:37
  Speaker 2: I guess a little bit better. I don't even know
• 7:38
  Speaker 2: if at this point you even need to do that.
• 7:40
  Speaker 2: But the money is disagreeing, and that's kind of the
• 7:43
  Speaker 2: issue I have here. Like I mentioned yesterday, the oddsmakers
• 7:47
  Speaker 2: are not throwing money away. So like, the White Socks
• 7:51
  Speaker 2: are an underdog here and they're getting all the public
• 7:53
  Speaker 2: action eighty one percent of the tickets. Oh, we see
• 7:55
  Speaker 2: the total percentage of starting to come in seventy percent
• 7:59
  Speaker 2: of the cash on the White Sox. Detroit's favored at
• 8:03
  Speaker 2: about minus one twenty. And why well, the oddsmakers are
• 8:06
  Speaker 2: telling you they think Detroit's not as bad as their
• 8:10
  Speaker 2: record looks. They think Valdez is the better of these
• 8:13
  Speaker 2: two pitchers, and like, career wise, yeah, I would agree
• 8:17
  Speaker 2: Valdez is the better picture, but you look at those
• 8:19
  Speaker 2: matchup numbers. I don't know, man, I think I would
• 8:22
  Speaker 2: probably lean White Sox here slightly, but I'm probably gonna
• 8:25
  Speaker 2: wind up being wrong about that, So that is not
• 8:28
  Speaker 2: going to be a play for me. And again, you
• 8:30
  Speaker 2: know I always warn about these very public underdogs. You
• 8:33
  Speaker 2: really do not want to be on a team like that.
• 8:35
  Speaker 2: So yeah, I'll just I'll pass that game. One empty
• 8:40
  Speaker 2: net goal last night, Kyle, what's up? Thanks for hanging
• 8:43
  Speaker 2: out all right Minnesota and Pittsburgh. I will not be
• 8:48
  Speaker 2: getting involved in this game either. Pittsburgh got the win
• 8:52
  Speaker 2: six to five yesterday and the game was five to
• 8:55
  Speaker 2: four after five innings, so yay for my play. I
• 8:59
  Speaker 2: guess I think this game went into extra innings as well.
• 9:02
  Speaker 2: There were a lot of extra inning games yesterday. No
• 9:06
  Speaker 2: it did not. I thought that was one of them,
• 9:08
  Speaker 2: but it was not. The bullpens did see some usage,
• 9:11
  Speaker 2: although this site says that that's not the case. But
• 9:14
  Speaker 2: I can tell you both bullpens did see action. They
• 9:17
  Speaker 2: both used I think a few relief pitchers, so I
• 9:20
  Speaker 2: think still Pittsburgh is the better bullpen. They probably do
• 9:23
  Speaker 2: have the bullpen edge here anyway. They're ranked seventeenth and
• 9:26
  Speaker 2: bullpen here this is arranged by Whip Minnesota not good
• 9:30
  Speaker 2: twenty seventh, so can never really trust their bullpen, even
• 9:34
  Speaker 2: though they actually weren't that bad yesterday and they've actually
• 9:37
  Speaker 2: been okay recently. Pittsburgh has the better offense as well.
• 9:42
  Speaker 2: They're ranked ninth, Minnesota is sixteenth. Pittsburgh is the better team,
• 9:47
  Speaker 2: which is why their favorite, and I could see arguments
• 9:50
  Speaker 2: they have the better starting pitcher here too. Both of
• 9:52
  Speaker 2: these starting pitchers are actually pitching pretty well this season.
• 9:55
  Speaker 2: Bailey Ober is pitching for the Twins three point twenty
• 9:59
  Speaker 2: ninety RA one point one. Whip pretty good. Ober, As
• 10:04
  Speaker 2: I always point out. Though he seems so streaky to
• 10:06
  Speaker 2: me where he'll have numbers like this and I'm like, yeah,
• 10:08
  Speaker 2: he's a good pitcher, and then he'll go on these
• 10:10
  Speaker 2: streaks where he's absolutely abysmo and I'm like, what is
• 10:13
  Speaker 2: going on here? But this season has been good. However,
• 10:16
  Speaker 2: he's not good on the road six point three Roady Ira.
• 10:21
  Speaker 2: That might be a problem because Pittsburgh is a good
• 10:24
  Speaker 2: offense at home. They're one of the best home offenses.
• 10:28
  Speaker 2: Ober and the Twins have won his last three starts.
• 10:32
  Speaker 2: He's pitching decently this month fourteen to four strikeout walk ratio,
• 10:36
  Speaker 2: but not a lot of strikeouts there. Twenty four innings,
• 10:39
  Speaker 2: twenty one hits a lout is not that bad either.
• 10:42
  Speaker 2: He's got a low strikeout rate, so he seems to
• 10:46
  Speaker 2: have changed what he's doing. But he has a low
• 10:48
  Speaker 2: hit rate on the season as well. His walk rate
• 10:51
  Speaker 2: is fine. It's just it doesn't look good because his
• 10:53
  Speaker 2: strikeout rate is low. But he's been pretty effective basically
• 10:58
  Speaker 2: all year. He hasn't a lot more than five in
• 11:00
  Speaker 2: any start, but that was one on the road at Washington.
• 11:04
  Speaker 2: Seemed a little bit unlucky really in that game, and
• 11:07
  Speaker 2: other than that he's allowed four or fewer in every
• 11:09
  Speaker 2: other game. Numbers against Pittsburgh, though, are not good, but
• 11:12
  Speaker 2: it is a small sample size of fifteen at bats.
• 11:16
  Speaker 2: But a four hundred average allowed nine to seventy one ops.
• 11:20
  Speaker 2: That's not good, so Ober might There aren't indications he
• 11:24
  Speaker 2: might struggle here. Bad matchup numbers, bad on the road.
• 11:27
  Speaker 2: Mitch Keller is pitching for at Pittsburgh, He's been pretty
• 11:31
  Speaker 2: good three point six four ERA, one point seven whip.
• 11:35
  Speaker 2: He's not as good at home, but his home road
• 11:37
  Speaker 2: splits are less significant than Ober, so he's got a
• 11:40
  Speaker 2: four point four home y ray. He's pitched decently this
• 11:45
  Speaker 2: month as well. Strikeout rate not really that high, twenty
• 11:48
  Speaker 2: one strikeouts, eight walks, a lot of that because he
• 11:50
  Speaker 2: had three in his last outing, but it was a
• 11:52
  Speaker 2: six inning, one run performance against Toronto, so it was
• 11:56
  Speaker 2: still a good outing, although Toronto's not a good offense.
• 11:59
  Speaker 2: One concern might be he threw over one hundred pitches,
• 12:02
  Speaker 2: but he's a veteran. He did do that against Cincinnati
• 12:04
  Speaker 2: earlier in the month, and he was fine in the
• 12:06
  Speaker 2: next game as well, in a tough pitching environment at Arizona,
• 12:10
  Speaker 2: so I'm not too concerned by that. He's allowed well
• 12:13
  Speaker 2: below one hit per inning this month as well, twenty
• 12:15
  Speaker 2: two hits and thirty to third innings. He's allowed fewer
• 12:18
  Speaker 2: than one hit per inning by a lot on the season.
• 12:20
  Speaker 2: His walk rate's not really that high. His strike cut
• 12:23
  Speaker 2: rate is low though He's not a strike cup pitcher,
• 12:26
  Speaker 2: so these pitchers are actually kind of similar in a way.
• 12:29
  Speaker 2: Keller does not have good numbers against Minnesota either, in
• 12:32
  Speaker 2: forty nine at bats three twenty seven average, eight p
• 12:35
  Speaker 2: fifty eight ohps, seven of five strikeout walker ratios. This
• 12:39
  Speaker 2: is one of those games where I'm usually not gonna
• 12:41
  Speaker 2: get involved because both pitchers have been pretty good. I
• 12:44
  Speaker 2: kind of like both of them to some extent, but
• 12:46
  Speaker 2: then you look at the matchup numbers and they both
• 12:50
  Speaker 2: have bad matchup numbers. So it's like, what do you
• 12:52
  Speaker 2: do with this game? Right? Speaking of which, where the
• 12:56
  Speaker 2: hell is this game? Where's the inn League? But dude,
• 13:00
  Speaker 2: I don't know why PREGAM needs to fix their shit?
• 13:03
  Speaker 2: What is all this shit they lumped in all this
• 13:05
  Speaker 2: other shit into the American League here? I don't know
• 13:08
  Speaker 2: what any of this fucking shit is. What is this?
• 13:10
  Speaker 2: Are these fights? Are these fights? I don't know who
• 13:13
  Speaker 2: these people are. I don't know what that shit is,
• 13:16
  Speaker 2: but yeah, the inner league is way down here anyway,
• 13:18
  Speaker 2: we don't see any percentages on this. Pittsburgh is a favorite, rightfully,
• 13:23
  Speaker 2: so they are the better team minus one forty or
• 13:26
  Speaker 2: so here totals at eight eight and a half. I mean,
• 13:31
  Speaker 2: if you go with the fact that these pictures don't
• 13:34
  Speaker 2: match up, well, you could I guess I could see
• 13:37
  Speaker 2: an argument for another over here in this game. And
• 13:41
  Speaker 2: you know, the bullpens are not trustworthy, so that does
• 13:43
  Speaker 2: help with the over I wouldn't really disagree with that.
• 13:46
  Speaker 2: I mean, there's a decent chance at least one of
• 13:48
  Speaker 2: those pitchers will struggle here. I think it's more likely
• 13:51
  Speaker 2: to be over though, because he's not good on the road,
• 13:54
  Speaker 2: So I would slightly lean towards Pittsburgh as well. As
• 13:57
  Speaker 2: they are the better team, I think they just they
• 14:00
  Speaker 2: win all three phases of phases of this matchup, in
• 14:03
  Speaker 2: my opinion, at least slightly. But I don't have a
• 14:06
  Speaker 2: strong opinion on that. Charles, what's up? Gerald, what's up?
• 14:10
  Speaker 2: Thanks for hanging out three and zero. I'm gonna try
• 14:14
  Speaker 2: this next game up. Almost made my card, so I
• 14:16
  Speaker 2: will point that out. San Diego at Washington, this was
• 14:20
  Speaker 2: very close to being a play for me. Washington returned
• 14:24
  Speaker 2: home yesterday from the road and they lost seven to five. So,
• 14:27
  Speaker 2: you know, I talk about when a team returns home
• 14:29
  Speaker 2: from the road, a lot of times they struggle, they
• 14:31
  Speaker 2: get distracted, and a lot of times that they have
• 14:33
  Speaker 2: a bad game. They'll play better in the next game.
• 14:35
  Speaker 2: But it was a close game, so it doesn't look
• 14:38
  Speaker 2: like they didn't have any effort, you know what I mean.
• 14:41
  Speaker 2: They didn't get embarrassed or anything. They lost seven to five,
• 14:44
  Speaker 2: so it was a close game. So even though generally yes,
• 14:48
  Speaker 2: that second game back home after a loss is a
• 14:50
  Speaker 2: good spot, but it looks like they did put in
• 14:52
  Speaker 2: a big effort yesterday. San Diego is the better pitching
• 14:56
  Speaker 2: team here in Washington is the better hitting team, so
• 14:58
  Speaker 2: you can kind of look at the game that way.
• 15:01
  Speaker 2: Washington used four guys out of the bullpen yesterday. San
• 15:05
  Speaker 2: Diego used five, including Mason Miller, but he'd been off
• 15:08
  Speaker 2: for so long. I guess it's maybe not out of
• 15:11
  Speaker 2: the question. They might use them again if they really
• 15:13
  Speaker 2: need to. Washington is a bad bullpen. Oh wait, I'm
• 15:18
  Speaker 2: looking at hitting here. I don't know. I'm not Washington's
• 15:21
  Speaker 2: twenty fifth in bullpen, that's obviously not good. San Diego's fourth,
• 15:25
  Speaker 2: and I believe they might have the best bullpen er
• 15:28
  Speaker 2: right now, where I've been saying all year, they're like
• 15:31
  Speaker 2: one of the top bullpens, if not the top, just
• 15:33
  Speaker 2: like last year. So there's a big bullpen edge, even
• 15:36
  Speaker 2: though it's a little bit less, I guess, just given
• 15:39
  Speaker 2: that San Diego use a lot of their relief pitchers yesterday,
• 15:42
  Speaker 2: but still bullpen edge goes to them, offense goes to Nationals.
• 15:47
  Speaker 2: The Nationals fourth in offense, san Diego twenty ninth. Huge
• 15:52
  Speaker 2: difference there. San Diego really struggling offensively, but Washington they
• 15:58
  Speaker 2: allow a lot of offense to appose offenses at home.
• 16:01
  Speaker 2: So I mean San Diego did put up seven runs
• 16:04
  Speaker 2: in yesterday's game. Every team could hit basically against Washington
• 16:08
  Speaker 2: at Washington. And that's kind of the problem I have
• 16:10
  Speaker 2: with my opinion in this game, which is I like
• 16:13
  Speaker 2: the first five under in this game. I like the
• 16:15
  Speaker 2: starting pitcher as Michael King is pitching for the Padres.
• 16:19
  Speaker 2: He's got a two point seven to six ERA, one
• 16:22
  Speaker 2: point one to five whip. He's been pretty much the
• 16:25
  Speaker 2: same home and away. He did struggle in his last outing, though,
• 16:28
  Speaker 2: so that worries me. It was against the A's, they're
• 16:30
  Speaker 2: a good offense. He didn't even make it four innings.
• 16:33
  Speaker 2: He allowed four runs, walked four guys. That's bad. The
• 16:37
  Speaker 2: walks continue to be a problem for King, but usually
• 16:40
  Speaker 2: he just overcomes it anyway. Because he doesn't allow a
• 16:42
  Speaker 2: lot of hits, usually strikes out a good amount of
• 16:45
  Speaker 2: guys as well, and that's been the case all season.
• 16:49
  Speaker 2: Very low hit rate. Walk rate is definitely too high, though,
• 16:52
  Speaker 2: but the strike out rate is also really good. He's
• 16:55
  Speaker 2: allowed no more than four runs in any outing, and
• 16:58
  Speaker 2: he's allowed two or fewer in all but three reoutings,
• 17:01
  Speaker 2: so he is good. Obviously, I will probably lean towards
• 17:05
  Speaker 2: that last start against the A's being an outlier, rather
• 17:08
  Speaker 2: than like, I think he's heading in the wrong direction,
• 17:11
  Speaker 2: you know what I mean. Like this month, he's still
• 17:12
  Speaker 2: pitched pretty well. He'd allowed one or fewer runs in
• 17:15
  Speaker 2: three starts leading up to that. You could argue that
• 17:18
  Speaker 2: was a letdown spot because he had picked up a
• 17:20
  Speaker 2: win in a seven inning shutout against the Dodgers the
• 17:24
  Speaker 2: game before that, so that could have been a letdown
• 17:26
  Speaker 2: coming into that game against the A's, so I'm gonna
• 17:28
  Speaker 2: give him a pass for that. I think he will
• 17:30
  Speaker 2: pitch well here. The Nationals somehow have basically not even
• 17:34
  Speaker 2: seen him before. They only have two winters have ever
• 17:36
  Speaker 2: faced him, and they're zero for four with a strikeout
• 17:39
  Speaker 2: and no walks against him. So even though King is
• 17:42
  Speaker 2: a veteran, he's in his thirties, somehow he has an
• 17:46
  Speaker 2: unfamiliarity edge year as well. Although there's a lot of
• 17:49
  Speaker 2: game film on I mean, you can just talk to
• 17:50
  Speaker 2: guys that have faced him, but still nothing quite compares
• 17:54
  Speaker 2: to having to face him in a real game. So
• 17:56
  Speaker 2: I think King will do well. I think Foster Griffin,
• 17:59
  Speaker 2: for washing, is the bigger question mark here, because again
• 18:02
  Speaker 2: he's a guy who's thirty, and all of a sudden,
• 18:04
  Speaker 2: you expect me to believe he's having some like career season.
• 18:07
  Speaker 2: I don't know, man. I got caught once with one
• 18:10
  Speaker 2: of those underplays recently, first five under in a game
• 18:14
  Speaker 2: involving him, and he was awful in that game. He
• 18:17
  Speaker 2: does have good numbers though, three point six three ERA,
• 18:20
  Speaker 2: one point one to three WHIP. He's been basically the
• 18:22
  Speaker 2: same home and home and away. He's coming off a
• 18:26
  Speaker 2: six inning shoutout of the Braves. Really good outing there,
• 18:31
  Speaker 2: picked up a win against a good Braves team. But
• 18:33
  Speaker 2: this is where I kind of started to get worried, like,
• 18:35
  Speaker 2: is he gonna be in a letdown spot off of that.
• 18:37
  Speaker 2: His two starts prior to that were both bad. One
• 18:41
  Speaker 2: he got rocked, and that was that one start where
• 18:43
  Speaker 2: I was mentioning. I gave out a first five under
• 18:45
  Speaker 2: in that game, and Griffin was the reason why we
• 18:48
  Speaker 2: didn't get that right. He got obliterated in that game.
• 18:52
  Speaker 2: That was horrible. So that was really bad. But the
• 18:55
  Speaker 2: start after that, he actually wasn't that bad. Even though
• 18:58
  Speaker 2: he gave up five runs against the Matts, which I
• 19:00
  Speaker 2: know is not good. It's the Mets, so that is
• 19:02
  Speaker 2: still a red flag. But he had a five to
• 19:04
  Speaker 2: zero strikeout walk ratio there, which isn't that bad. This month,
• 19:09
  Speaker 2: he's got more than one strikeout per inning thirty and
• 19:11
  Speaker 2: twenty eight and a third innings nine walks. That's pretty low.
• 19:15
  Speaker 2: Twenty five hits allowed also pretty low, So he is
• 19:17
  Speaker 2: still pitching well. But I do worry that he's starting
• 19:21
  Speaker 2: to kind of move in the wrong direction. This Braves
• 19:23
  Speaker 2: game could set him up for a little bit of
• 19:24
  Speaker 2: a let down here. San Diego basically has never seen
• 19:28
  Speaker 2: him before, though only Loreano has ever faced him, and
• 19:31
  Speaker 2: he has a walk in that one at bat. I
• 19:34
  Speaker 2: do lean to the under in the first five here.
• 19:36
  Speaker 2: I don't want to deal with the bullpens. Washington's bullpen
• 19:39
  Speaker 2: is like an immediate throw them the hell out of there.
• 19:42
  Speaker 2: San Diego used a lot of their better relief pitchers
• 19:44
  Speaker 2: yesterday as well. I like first five under here. The
• 19:48
  Speaker 2: money is seeming like it agrees fifty percent of tickets
• 19:52
  Speaker 2: fifty five percent of the cash on the under. But
• 19:55
  Speaker 2: still I just worry generally about Washington's pitching at home
• 19:59
  Speaker 2: just not being good, though Griffin generally has been pretty good.
• 20:02
  Speaker 2: The full game total is kind of telling you the
• 20:04
  Speaker 2: oddsmakers think it's gonna be a low scoring game seven
• 20:07
  Speaker 2: and a half first five. If you do want that,
• 20:10
  Speaker 2: you're looking at a three and a half in this game. Though.
• 20:13
  Speaker 2: The money is also coming in on Washington, which I
• 20:15
  Speaker 2: think that bolsters the case for the under, though, because
• 20:19
  Speaker 2: sixty four percent of tickets on San Diego fifty two
• 20:22
  Speaker 2: of the cash on Washington. If the money seems to
• 20:25
  Speaker 2: be coming in on the less trustworthy pitcher and Griffin.
• 20:29
  Speaker 2: I don't really think that's a fade of King. I
• 20:31
  Speaker 2: think I think that's more of a play on Griffin there.
• 20:35
  Speaker 2: So that does kind of indicate that the under does
• 20:38
  Speaker 2: kind of look correct there. But I would not do
• 20:40
  Speaker 2: full game. Like I said, first five under is what
• 20:43
  Speaker 2: I like there, and that one almost made the cut
• 20:46
  Speaker 2: for me. So you know that one's gonna win and
• 20:48
  Speaker 2: my players are gonna lose. You know, that's just the
• 20:50
  Speaker 2: way that it is. But I just have a few
• 20:53
  Speaker 2: concerns there with Griffin and with Washington's pitching there. So,
• 20:57
  Speaker 2: but yes, first five under I like a decent amount
• 21:00
  Speaker 2: in that game. This next game, I am gonna have
• 21:08
  Speaker 2: a play. It is going to be Toronto first five
• 21:11
  Speaker 2: innings against Baltimore here. I know Baltimore should have motivation
• 21:15
  Speaker 2: here because they're trying to avoid getting swept at this
• 21:18
  Speaker 2: point of These teams play tomorrow as well. It's a
• 21:21
  Speaker 2: four game series and both games have been close. Toronto
• 21:26
  Speaker 2: has a one run win in both games. There are
• 21:28
  Speaker 2: some arguments that Baltimore is the better team, but Toronto
• 21:32
  Speaker 2: has the better pitching man and that's the thing. And
• 21:34
  Speaker 2: obviously I think they have the better starting pitcher here
• 21:36
  Speaker 2: and that's why I'm doing this. But I think Toronto
• 21:39
  Speaker 2: does actually have the better bullpen as well. So if
• 21:42
  Speaker 2: you wanted to leave this, if you wanted to go
• 21:45
  Speaker 2: full game on Toronto, you could do that too. I
• 21:47
  Speaker 2: almost did that, But the one reason why I am
• 21:50
  Speaker 2: not doing that is because Toronto used a bullpen game yesterday.
• 21:54
  Speaker 2: So their bullpend is definitely more worked than Baltimore's. Is
• 21:58
  Speaker 2: this website won't show. I don't know why it's fucking up,
• 22:02
  Speaker 2: but I can tell you right now. But the teams
• 22:04
  Speaker 2: use a similar amount of relief pitchers in the game yesterday,
• 22:07
  Speaker 2: but Toronto used their bullpen for way more pitches. Because
• 22:11
  Speaker 2: the bullpen basically threw the entire game, you know what
• 22:14
  Speaker 2: I mean. They went with a bullpen game, so because
• 22:17
  Speaker 2: it was supposed to be Dollan cease his turn and
• 22:19
  Speaker 2: he's hurt. So I mentioned that yesterday when I handicap
• 22:22
  Speaker 2: that game, So I'll take Toronto's bullpen out of the
• 22:25
  Speaker 2: equation after they had to use them like that. Yes,
• 22:28
  Speaker 2: Baltimore should be motivated because they're trying to get a
• 22:32
  Speaker 2: win in this series. And yes, there was a reason
• 22:34
  Speaker 2: why they lost the first game of the series. I
• 22:36
  Speaker 2: thought they were gonna letdown Spot off of that sweep
• 22:38
  Speaker 2: of Tampa Bay. So I did worry about Baltimore a
• 22:41
  Speaker 2: little bit in that first game. But I just think
• 22:44
  Speaker 2: this starting pitching matchup is just too strong in favor
• 22:48
  Speaker 2: of Toronto here. Man as far as the rest of
• 22:51
  Speaker 2: this game, Toronto generally does have the better bullpen ranked ninth.
• 22:55
  Speaker 2: The Orioles are nineteenth. Toronto still their bullpen er, I
• 22:59
  Speaker 2: don't know, higher than all the other teams around them,
• 23:01
  Speaker 2: so I don't think they're actually a top ten bullpen,
• 23:04
  Speaker 2: but they're better than Baltimore and they've been pitching pretty
• 23:07
  Speaker 2: well recently. Baltimore has the better offense. They're twelveth. The
• 23:11
  Speaker 2: Blue Jays are twenty third, which isn't good, but I
• 23:14
  Speaker 2: don't think we need that much offense to get this
• 23:17
  Speaker 2: bet to come home, and I think Toronto can score
• 23:20
  Speaker 2: in this match up here. We're gonna be backing tray
• 23:23
  Speaker 2: Y Savage here for the Blue Jays. We're getting him
• 23:26
  Speaker 2: at a reasonable price too, which kind of surprised me
• 23:29
  Speaker 2: because the full game price on Toronto is basically the
• 23:32
  Speaker 2: same as this, So I was thinking first five is
• 23:34
  Speaker 2: probably gonna be like almost minus one forty because we
• 23:38
  Speaker 2: know we get the better starting pitcher here. But no,
• 23:41
  Speaker 2: the line was like the same as it was for
• 23:44
  Speaker 2: full games. So I'm like, I'm like, okay, so it
• 23:48
  Speaker 2: seems like a good price at the minus one twenty
• 23:50
  Speaker 2: five here we get to back you Savage. He's good
• 23:54
  Speaker 2: two point two five ERA this year so far, one
• 23:56
  Speaker 2: point zero six whip. I mean, he's we don't have
• 23:59
  Speaker 2: to worry about his youth at this point. I don't think.
• 24:01
  Speaker 2: I mean, he pitched in the playoffs last year. You know,
• 24:04
  Speaker 2: he got a lot of experience. I'm not too concerned
• 24:07
  Speaker 2: about that at all. He's been good on the road
• 24:09
  Speaker 2: this year to one point sixty nine. Rody Ram. He
• 24:13
  Speaker 2: didn't do well in his last outing against Miami, but
• 24:15
  Speaker 2: it was I would say that was misleading that he
• 24:18
  Speaker 2: gave up five runs in that out of him because
• 24:19
  Speaker 2: he only allowed five hits and he had two walks,
• 24:22
  Speaker 2: six strikeouts, and six and two thirds innings, So he
• 24:25
  Speaker 2: got unlucky that most of the guys that reach base
• 24:27
  Speaker 2: happened to score. If you take that out, all of
• 24:30
  Speaker 2: his other outings he's allowed two or fewer earned runs
• 24:32
  Speaker 2: and He's allowed one or fewer in all but one
• 24:35
  Speaker 2: of them, so he is pitching well. He's got over
• 24:38
  Speaker 2: one strike up per inning below one hit per inning,
• 24:40
  Speaker 2: and his walk rate is reasonable enough. And he has
• 24:45
  Speaker 2: the unfamiliarity edge as well. Baltimore has never faced him before,
• 24:50
  Speaker 2: even though he's in their division. You Savage came into
• 24:52
  Speaker 2: the majors late last year never faced Baltimore, so Baltimore
• 24:57
  Speaker 2: might struggle to figure him out early on. Man I
• 25:00
  Speaker 2: will back him here against Brandon Young, who is the
• 25:04
  Speaker 2: more familiar of the two pitchers. Young's got a good ERA,
• 25:08
  Speaker 2: so people might be misled by that three point four
• 25:10
  Speaker 2: to seven, but his whip is one point four. That's
• 25:13
  Speaker 2: not good, even though I think he's capable of pitching decently,
• 25:17
  Speaker 2: but it just hasn't really happened throughout his career. I
• 25:20
  Speaker 2: don't know if this is really the environment for it.
• 25:22
  Speaker 2: His whip is a concern for sure. He's been a
• 25:26
  Speaker 2: little bit worse at home three point seven four home era,
• 25:29
  Speaker 2: so the home road splits, while they're not huge, they
• 25:31
  Speaker 2: are in favor of Toronto here as well. Baltimore has
• 25:35
  Speaker 2: won four games in a row behind Young, and they've
• 25:37
  Speaker 2: won six of seven. I get that that is concerning
• 25:40
  Speaker 2: if you're gonna go against him. Here he's allowed three
• 25:43
  Speaker 2: or few our own runs and all but one outing
• 25:45
  Speaker 2: where he got rocked by Houston, but he really I
• 25:48
  Speaker 2: don't know, man, there are some concerns here. The main
• 25:51
  Speaker 2: concern is the walks. He's got eleven walks this month
• 25:54
  Speaker 2: and twenty one to two thirds innings, seventeen strikeouts, seventeen
• 25:57
  Speaker 2: hits allowed. The number of walks is not something you
• 26:01
  Speaker 2: can continue doing and continue allowing this few runs, which
• 26:06
  Speaker 2: basically you could see that in his whip, like he's
• 26:09
  Speaker 2: putting so many guys on base, some of them are
• 26:11
  Speaker 2: gonna score eventually. Like that just is trouble waiting to happen.
• 26:16
  Speaker 2: His strikeout rate is low on the season, so that's
• 26:18
  Speaker 2: not good, well below one per inning. He's allowed fewer
• 26:21
  Speaker 2: than one hit per inning, which is good, but his
• 26:23
  Speaker 2: walk rate is also still too high, and it got
• 26:26
  Speaker 2: higher this month. I don't like that. In Toronto, while
• 26:29
  Speaker 2: they haven't been hitting well this season, they have twenty
• 26:31
  Speaker 2: at bats against him, which isn't huge but it is something.
• 26:35
  Speaker 2: And they've hit four hundred off a young with an
• 26:37
  Speaker 2: eight seventy nine ops and that's including an over two
• 26:40
  Speaker 2: from Vlad Guerrero with a walk in there, but Toronto
• 26:44
  Speaker 2: has been able to hit him a little bit. So
• 26:46
  Speaker 2: we will go with Toronto first five in this one.
• 26:49
  Speaker 2: The money seems like it is backing this, even though
• 26:52
  Speaker 2: they are seemingly public as well, which I guess kind
• 26:56
  Speaker 2: of makes sense because they are the team with a
• 26:57
  Speaker 2: better record, but eighty one percent of tickets eighty nine
• 27:00
  Speaker 2: percent of the cash on Toronto, they're in the minus
• 27:03
  Speaker 2: one twenty something range for the full game. Like I said,
• 27:05
  Speaker 2: it's basically the same as it is. First five. This
• 27:08
  Speaker 2: is a first five inning play back. You savage over
• 27:12
  Speaker 2: young here, That's what we're gonna do Toronto verse five plus.
• 27:18
  Speaker 2: There's no way that Toronto's plus one oh eight. There's
• 27:21
  Speaker 2: absolutely no way that I think you bet the wrong thing.
• 27:25
  Speaker 2: There's absolutely no fucking way that that's unless you play
• 27:28
  Speaker 2: the run line. You must have you must have laid
• 27:31
  Speaker 2: the half run. That must have been what it was,
• 27:34
  Speaker 2: which I mean, I wouldn't really disagree with that, but
• 27:37
  Speaker 2: I I would prefer the money line because then if
• 27:40
  Speaker 2: the game is tied, you'll at least push the bet.
• 27:42
  Speaker 2: You're gonna need them to be to be winning by
• 27:45
  Speaker 2: a run at the end of the first five, which
• 27:48
  Speaker 2: is possible. But there's a low total in that game.
• 27:50
  Speaker 2: It's seven and a half, which that does worry me
• 27:53
  Speaker 2: a little bit that the oddsmakers kind of are respecting
• 27:55
  Speaker 2: young by putting the total that low. But I don't
• 27:58
  Speaker 2: know about that all right. Kansas City at Texas is
• 28:06
  Speaker 2: on Fox Sports one.
• 28:09
  Speaker 1: UH.
• 28:09
  Speaker 2: Texas won the game easily yesterday, nine to one. They
• 28:12
  Speaker 2: bounce back from a bad series against Houston. Texas is
• 28:16
  Speaker 2: definitely the better of these two teams here. Kansas City, sorry, Zach,
• 28:20
  Speaker 2: Kansas City not doing well. Kansas City hu's three relief
• 28:24
  Speaker 2: pitchers yesterday. According to this Texas did also, but Texas
• 28:28
  Speaker 2: has the better bullpend. Texas is ranked seventh than bullpen
• 28:32
  Speaker 2: right now. I think they might be better than that.
• 28:33
  Speaker 2: They're one of the best bullpens, which cannot be said
• 28:37
  Speaker 2: for Kansas City, who's ranked dead last, although I think
• 28:40
  Speaker 2: they're probably really the third worst bullpen behind Houston and Anaheim.
• 28:44
  Speaker 2: But this is a bad Kansas City bullpen. Hitting wise,
• 28:47
  Speaker 2: Kansas City hasn't been good either. They're at twenty seventh,
• 28:50
  Speaker 2: and Texas, not known for their offense, is at twenty first. Yeah,
• 28:57
  Speaker 2: so Texas has the edge I think in every phase
• 28:59
  Speaker 2: of this game, maybe debatably not the starting pitching, but
• 29:02
  Speaker 2: I think it's you can make our arguments for either
• 29:05
  Speaker 2: starting pitcher here in my opinion. So I was going
• 29:07
  Speaker 2: back and forth trying to figure out what I thought
• 29:10
  Speaker 2: about this game. Seth Lugo is pitching for Kansas City.
• 29:14
  Speaker 2: He's a guy that generally I do like, but the
• 29:17
  Speaker 2: advanced analytics guy's, you know, like I keep saying, I
• 29:20
  Speaker 2: think they have something right about Lugo because even though
• 29:23
  Speaker 2: he has a three point seven to four ERA, his
• 29:25
  Speaker 2: whip is definitely too high at this point one point
• 29:28
  Speaker 2: three to eight. He hasn't been as good recently. He's
• 29:31
  Speaker 2: good on the road though, he's got a three road
• 29:33
  Speaker 2: R and we know how pitcher friendly Texas is, So
• 29:36
  Speaker 2: I think Lugo has a good situation to pitch well here,
• 29:41
  Speaker 2: even though he hasn't pitched that well this month. He's
• 29:43
  Speaker 2: got way too many walks and way too many hits
• 29:45
  Speaker 2: allowed to in twenty seven and a third innings, He's
• 29:48
  Speaker 2: allowed thirty four hits on top of twelve walks. You
• 29:51
  Speaker 2: cannot do that, man, twenty three strikeouts, is fine. I mean,
• 29:54
  Speaker 2: he's not really a strikeout pitcher. He's somehow allowed three
• 29:58
  Speaker 2: or four runs and three of these five starts, and
• 30:00
  Speaker 2: two of those were the most recent ones against Boston
• 30:03
  Speaker 2: and Seattle, but it is still concerning. He's not pitching
• 30:07
  Speaker 2: as well right now. However, Texas is not an elite
• 30:10
  Speaker 2: offense by any means here. It's a pitcher friendly park.
• 30:14
  Speaker 2: Lugo has been better on the road, and his numbers
• 30:16
  Speaker 2: against Texas in his career are pretty good. In forty
• 30:19
  Speaker 2: seven at bats, fourteen strikeouts, three walks, one oh six
• 30:23
  Speaker 2: average allowed in three ninety four oh ps. So I
• 30:26
  Speaker 2: believe Lugo does set up to probably pitch well here.
• 30:30
  Speaker 2: I would lean more towards him having a good outing here.
• 30:33
  Speaker 2: He's going up against Kumar Rocker, who I think is
• 30:36
  Speaker 2: way more unpredictable. He's got a three point nine to
• 30:39
  Speaker 2: six CRA this year, which is fine. One point three
• 30:42
  Speaker 2: to six whip is not that good. So both these
• 30:45
  Speaker 2: pitchers have been too wild, even though I think Rocker
• 30:48
  Speaker 2: is kind of the harder thrower out of the two,
• 30:50
  Speaker 2: and whatever, he's obviously the younger pitcher. Rocker has been
• 30:54
  Speaker 2: better at home three point five to two HOMI race,
• 30:56
  Speaker 2: so the home road splits favor both pitchers here. Rocker
• 31:01
  Speaker 2: has definitely been better in this pitching environment, which makes sense.
• 31:05
  Speaker 2: He wasn't great last time out here Agains Houston, but
• 31:07
  Speaker 2: he got a little bit unlucky and that he allowed
• 31:09
  Speaker 2: four hits, two walks, and four of those runners came home.
• 31:13
  Speaker 2: He did allow a home run. Generally, though, it's his
• 31:16
  Speaker 2: walks that are the concern. He's got twelve walks in
• 31:18
  Speaker 2: twenty three hunt to third innings this month. Twenty one
• 31:21
  Speaker 2: hits allowed is fine, twenty strikeouts is okay, but that
• 31:23
  Speaker 2: walk number is ridiculous, and that's how he's been all season.
• 31:27
  Speaker 2: He's got a strike out rate that he kind of
• 31:29
  Speaker 2: wish would be a little bit higher from a guy
• 31:30
  Speaker 2: like him. The walk rate is way too high and
• 31:33
  Speaker 2: the hit rate is fine. It's good Rocker One advantage
• 31:38
  Speaker 2: he might have years that Kansas City has never faced
• 31:40
  Speaker 2: him before and they're a pretty weak offense, so I
• 31:43
  Speaker 2: think he might have an edge here because he's at home,
• 31:45
  Speaker 2: where he generally pitches better. He's unfamiliar to Kansas City
• 31:49
  Speaker 2: and they're not a very good offense, so I think
• 31:52
  Speaker 2: probably looking at a first five under is the better
• 31:54
  Speaker 2: way to look at this game. It's another low total,
• 31:57
  Speaker 2: so the oddsmakers are telling you that they think that
• 32:00
  Speaker 2: this is going to be a low scoring game. It's
• 32:02
  Speaker 2: at seven and a half year. Some of the books
• 32:05
  Speaker 2: haven't juiced to the under as well, so the oddsmakers
• 32:08
  Speaker 2: are telling you something with that. But of course, I
• 32:10
  Speaker 2: mean it's not a surprise like Texas. Their home games
• 32:13
  Speaker 2: are averaging like below seven runs a game. Texas is
• 32:18
  Speaker 2: the lowest scoring home team I think still maybe the
• 32:20
  Speaker 2: Red Sox are, but the Red Sox have scored home
• 32:23
  Speaker 2: runs recently, so Texas might be the lowest scoring home
• 32:26
  Speaker 2: team again, and they also allow the fewest runs as
• 32:30
  Speaker 2: a home team as well, so they play very low
• 32:32
  Speaker 2: scoring games at home. So yeah, first five under is
• 32:35
  Speaker 2: probably what I would be looking at. Excuse you're looking
• 32:39
  Speaker 2: at in this game. Eighty seven percent of tickets, ninety
• 32:42
  Speaker 2: four percent of the cash on Texas and minus one twenty.
• 32:46
  Speaker 2: I don't know if I agree with that. Lugo has
• 32:49
  Speaker 2: the established numbers against Texas that are good. Rocker is
• 32:53
  Speaker 2: just highly variant, Like, certainly there's a chance Rocker goes
• 32:57
  Speaker 2: out there and pitches really well and raw, but I
• 33:00
  Speaker 2: think there's more of a chance that he does horribly
• 33:03
  Speaker 2: than that Lugo does, So that's where the variance comes
• 33:07
  Speaker 2: in there. But I am leaning towards Rocker pitching better,
• 33:10
  Speaker 2: even though I kind of lean Kansas City first five
• 33:13
  Speaker 2: here as an underdog. I'm assuming they're gonna be an
• 33:16
  Speaker 2: underdog there, wouldn't want anything to do with their bullpen.
• 33:19
  Speaker 2: But yeah, I think first five under makes the most
• 33:23
  Speaker 2: sense to me in that game though, going with both
• 33:25
  Speaker 2: pitchers to actually do well here. John Rocker no relation.
• 33:32
  Speaker 2: John Rocker does rock Hopefully he still follows me on
• 33:35
  Speaker 2: Twitter despite all my you know, just despite me butting
• 33:42
  Speaker 2: heads with the idiot conservatives recently. I think he still
• 33:47
  Speaker 2: follows me. I don't know. Shout out to John Rocker. Yeah,
• 33:53
  Speaker 2: I mean he's one of my favorite pitchers as well,
• 33:56
  Speaker 2: all right, not my absolute favorite, but one of my favorites.
• 34:01
  Speaker 2: Amaheim and Tampa Bay. This is gonna be my other
• 34:03
  Speaker 2: baseball play. This is a game where I think we
• 34:10
  Speaker 2: can get this a little bit under the radar. We're
• 34:12
  Speaker 2: gonna go first five under three and a half. I
• 34:15
  Speaker 2: know it's I if you want four, you have to
• 34:18
  Speaker 2: pay like minus one thirty five for it, so I
• 34:20
  Speaker 2: opted to go three and a half at even money instead.
• 34:24
  Speaker 2: It's a close call if you want to go under four.
• 34:27
  Speaker 2: I mean, every half run in the first five innings
• 34:30
  Speaker 2: matters and is about the same. But I think we're
• 34:32
  Speaker 2: gonna get a low scoring early part of this game.
• 34:35
  Speaker 2: I like the starting pitching matchup in this game, obviously,
• 34:38
  Speaker 2: and I do not like the bullpens. And again, this
• 34:42
  Speaker 2: website is fucked up because these teams did use their
• 34:44
  Speaker 2: bullpens yesterday, so I don't know what this website is
• 34:48
  Speaker 2: talking about. There was some bullpen usage on both sides
• 34:51
  Speaker 2: here both It wasn't a lot though each team only
• 34:56
  Speaker 2: used a couple of relief pitchers. But still I don't
• 34:58
  Speaker 2: like these bullpens. Anaheim's bullpen is one of the worst
• 35:02
  Speaker 2: in baseball. They're ranked second worst, twenty ninth, really bad.
• 35:07
  Speaker 2: Tampa Bay hasn't been doing that well either, the sixteenth
• 35:10
  Speaker 2: mediocre bullpen, but era in the mid fours is not
• 35:14
  Speaker 2: very good. Offensively, these teams have been decent. Tampa Bay
• 35:19
  Speaker 2: has been the better one. They're actually seventh offensively, so
• 35:22
  Speaker 2: we do have to dodge that in this game. Anaheim
• 35:25
  Speaker 2: has been hitting a little bit better recently, but still
• 35:27
  Speaker 2: they were struggling for a while before that. They're at
• 35:30
  Speaker 2: nineteenth offensively, but I think the good pitching can stifle
• 35:34
  Speaker 2: good hitting, and that's what we're gonna go with here.
• 35:36
  Speaker 2: Reed Debt Meers is pitching for Anaheim. He's got a
• 35:39
  Speaker 2: four point five to seven e RRA and his record
• 35:42
  Speaker 2: is ugly one in five, so I think people are
• 35:44
  Speaker 2: gonna really overlook him. But if you look at the
• 35:46
  Speaker 2: rest of his numbers, this guy is actually good. He's
• 35:49
  Speaker 2: got a one point one four WHIP so that tells me, okay,
• 35:52
  Speaker 2: that ERA should be lower because he's not putting that
• 35:55
  Speaker 2: many guys on base. He's been good on the road
• 35:57
  Speaker 2: three point eight to one road ERA, so the road
• 36:00
  Speaker 2: home road splits favor this year because he's been better
• 36:03
  Speaker 2: away from Anaheim Stadium, which is a more hitter friendly stadium.
• 36:08
  Speaker 2: Dettnver's had an awesome outing last time out against Texas.
• 36:11
  Speaker 2: He won, hit them with fourteen strikeouts in eight innings
• 36:15
  Speaker 2: and did not allow a walk, although the one hit
• 36:17
  Speaker 2: was a home run and he wound up not getting
• 36:21
  Speaker 2: the win in that game, although Texas won, although Anaheim
• 36:24
  Speaker 2: won the game. Now, the one concern there is that, Yeah,
• 36:27
  Speaker 2: he might have a letdown after that, that's true, but
• 36:31
  Speaker 2: that was an excellent start, and to me, it looks
• 36:33
  Speaker 2: like he's in good form this month. He's got way
• 36:35
  Speaker 2: over one strike up or inning on the month. His
• 36:39
  Speaker 2: strikeout rates been high thirty nine strikeouts in twenty nine
• 36:42
  Speaker 2: and third innings, only twenty five hits allowed. The one
• 36:44
  Speaker 2: concern is ten walks when you kind of dive into
• 36:47
  Speaker 2: it a little bit. It was six in one game
• 36:50
  Speaker 2: against Toronto, and I know that was on the road
• 36:52
  Speaker 2: as well. Toronto's not a good offense. I know that,
• 36:55
  Speaker 2: so that is concerning. But to me that looks like
• 36:57
  Speaker 2: a blip because he did bounce back. And then his
• 37:00
  Speaker 2: other bad start was at home against the A's and
• 37:02
  Speaker 2: he give up eight runs. But he got unlucky in
• 37:04
  Speaker 2: that one. I mean, he gave up eight hits, which
• 37:07
  Speaker 2: isn't good, but every basically everybody that got on base
• 37:10
  Speaker 2: scored against him, which you don't really expect that to happen.
• 37:13
  Speaker 2: He's stid eight strikeouts in two walks, so I don't
• 37:16
  Speaker 2: think he was that bad in that start. If you
• 37:19
  Speaker 2: look over the course of the season, he's allowed more
• 37:21
  Speaker 2: than three or in runs, only three times twice in April.
• 37:26
  Speaker 2: He's got a high strikeout rate, dude, He's got more
• 37:29
  Speaker 2: than one strike up er ending by quite a bit,
• 37:31
  Speaker 2: fewer than one hit per ending a lot on. His
• 37:33
  Speaker 2: walk rate is reasonably low as well, so his overall
• 37:36
  Speaker 2: numbers are all good. He's just he is two fly
• 37:38
  Speaker 2: ball heavy, though, which does worry me a little bit,
• 37:41
  Speaker 2: so we have to avoid the home runs here. But
• 37:43
  Speaker 2: he also has good numbers against Tampa. They only have
• 37:46
  Speaker 2: five hitters who have seen him before, so some of
• 37:48
  Speaker 2: their hitters have never faced him. Only Yandi Diez has
• 37:52
  Speaker 2: been able to do any damage against him. He's got
• 37:55
  Speaker 2: the only extra mase hits against him, a double and
• 37:57
  Speaker 2: a home run, but overall they're four to thirty off
• 38:01
  Speaker 2: him overall with eight strikeouts two walks. That's a one
• 38:04
  Speaker 2: thirty three average of four point fifty four ohps. So
• 38:07
  Speaker 2: I like det Merz. I think he's better than his
• 38:09
  Speaker 2: era looks. He's got the home road splits in his favor.
• 38:12
  Speaker 2: He looks to me in good form right now. He
• 38:14
  Speaker 2: didn't throw up too many pitches at least in that
• 38:16
  Speaker 2: fourteen strikeout outing. He did it with an efficient pitch count,
• 38:20
  Speaker 2: so I think that's good. And he's not so young
• 38:23
  Speaker 2: that I'm like, oh, he's not used to pitching like this,
• 38:25
  Speaker 2: you know what I mean, He's been in the league
• 38:27
  Speaker 2: for a few years, so that worries me a little
• 38:29
  Speaker 2: bit less. And he'll be going up against Drew Rasmus then,
• 38:32
  Speaker 2: and you I mean, you watch my show, you know,
• 38:34
  Speaker 2: I wind up on a lot of unders with this guy.
• 38:37
  Speaker 2: He's been good. He's got a two point seven to
• 38:39
  Speaker 2: eighty ra point nine to eight whip. He's been better
• 38:42
  Speaker 2: at home, so both home roads splits are in favor
• 38:45
  Speaker 2: of this year two point three to one homey ram.
• 38:49
  Speaker 2: He's coming off a good outing where he seven in
• 38:51
  Speaker 2: he shut out the Yankees and had six strikeouts, one walk,
• 38:55
  Speaker 2: five hits allowed. So yeah, you could argue there's gonna
• 38:57
  Speaker 2: be a letdown component of this year too, because that
• 38:59
  Speaker 2: was a big out. But I'm not so sure about that.
• 39:02
  Speaker 2: I mean, he shut out the ye he did shut
• 39:04
  Speaker 2: out the Yankees previously, and he did have a bad
• 39:06
  Speaker 2: start after that, but it was on the road against Pittsburgh,
• 39:09
  Speaker 2: and you know, I've talked about that Pittsburgh. That is
• 39:11
  Speaker 2: a pretty good offense, and they're really good in their
• 39:14
  Speaker 2: home stadium. This is a different deal. He's gonna be
• 39:17
  Speaker 2: at home here against a weaker offense than that, so
• 39:20
  Speaker 2: I'm less concerned about that. Overall, he's been pitching pretty
• 39:23
  Speaker 2: well though he's not really a strikeout pitcher, but he's
• 39:25
  Speaker 2: not putting a lot of guys on base. He's been
• 39:28
  Speaker 2: very consistent. Like this month is pretty similar to his
• 39:30
  Speaker 2: other stats this season. He's allowed well below one hit
• 39:34
  Speaker 2: per inning. His walk rate is not high, and his
• 39:36
  Speaker 2: strikeout rate is reasonable. He's not really a strikeout pitcher.
• 39:40
  Speaker 2: His numbers against Anaheim or mediocre, but they're on the
• 39:45
  Speaker 2: better side of the Mendoza line for the Ops. At least.
• 39:49
  Speaker 2: He's got twenty three at bats against them, four strikeouts,
• 39:53
  Speaker 2: one walk, two sixty one average. Really, Adam Fraser does
• 39:56
  Speaker 2: all the damage against him, though they have a seven
• 39:59
  Speaker 2: to twenty six yes against them. But Fraser's five for
• 40:02
  Speaker 2: twelve with a double. And I know Solaira does have
• 40:04
  Speaker 2: a home run Offen, but really, I think if if
• 40:07
  Speaker 2: Ras was to can pitch around Fraser, just that one
• 40:10
  Speaker 2: guy that really gets you, you know, uh, he should
• 40:13
  Speaker 2: have a good outing here. And the odds makers are
• 40:15
  Speaker 2: telling you that this is gonna be a low scoring game.
• 40:17
  Speaker 2: And of course this website is all fucked up again.
• 40:20
  Speaker 2: Their odds logic integration is not working well here. It
• 40:23
  Speaker 2: looks like, of course that didn't work. Oh, there we go.
• 40:29
  Speaker 2: We don't see the percentages here on the This website's
• 40:33
  Speaker 2: got some problems, man, So we don't see the percentages
• 40:38
  Speaker 2: on the total here. But the odds makers put a
• 40:39
  Speaker 2: total up there. Seven. It was used to the over
• 40:43
  Speaker 2: on the open and outs and even seven. So the
• 40:46
  Speaker 2: odds makers and the professionals seem to be telling you
• 40:49
  Speaker 2: they think this is gonna be a low scoring game.
• 40:51
  Speaker 2: Here ninety tickets, eighty seven percent of the cash on tampus.
• 40:55
  Speaker 2: So the money seems to be backing the maybe less
• 41:01
  Speaker 2: what's the word I'm looking for here, the pitcher that
• 41:04
  Speaker 2: you might have more concerns about debt mers, the money
• 41:06
  Speaker 2: seems to be coming in more towards him, so that
• 41:09
  Speaker 2: is interesting. We're taking the bullpens out, Like I said,
• 41:12
  Speaker 2: I don't want either bullpen here. Really, I like it
• 41:15
  Speaker 2: to be a pitching duel. Early though, we'll go first
• 41:17
  Speaker 2: five under three and a half. If you can find
• 41:19
  Speaker 2: a four that's at like minus one twenty five or
• 41:22
  Speaker 2: better than that, then I would probably shift and go
• 41:24
  Speaker 2: to that under four at that price, but I didn't
• 41:28
  Speaker 2: see it, so three and a half plus one hundred.
• 41:32
  Speaker 2: If I do see it, like shortly after I get
• 41:35
  Speaker 2: this video up, then I will make the change in
• 41:37
  Speaker 2: the description. But I don't think it's gonna happen. All right,
• 41:41
  Speaker 2: my Red Sox at Cleveland, What are we supposed to
• 41:45
  Speaker 2: do with Brian Beao? Dude? The Red Sox lost four
• 41:48
  Speaker 2: to three yesterday, and if you saw how that game
• 41:50
  Speaker 2: played out, Brian Beao came in after an opener again
• 41:55
  Speaker 2: and guess what he did, Yeah, he pitched well. Again.
• 41:59
  Speaker 2: Every time the Red Sox put an opener in front
• 42:01
  Speaker 2: of Bayo, he pitches well. And every time he starts
• 42:04
  Speaker 2: the game he is absolute trash. So they have to
• 42:07
  Speaker 2: put an opener in front of him except Garrett. When
• 42:10
  Speaker 2: Garret Kroschet comes back, the Red Sox can take him
• 42:12
  Speaker 2: out of the rotation finally, But every time the Red
• 42:16
  Speaker 2: Sox will put an opener in front of him, the
• 42:18
  Speaker 2: opener is giving up multiple runs, I'm pretty sure. So
• 42:20
  Speaker 2: they were using Miran for that morn and he was
• 42:24
  Speaker 2: bad every time he opened, and then BeO came in
• 42:27
  Speaker 2: to pitch well, so what did they do? Okay, yesterday
• 42:30
  Speaker 2: they tagged Samaniego to do it, and what did he do?
• 42:33
  Speaker 2: He allowed four fucking runs in the first fucking inning.
• 42:38
  Speaker 2: So the Red Sox are already in a four nothing
• 42:40
  Speaker 2: a hole after one inning. BeO pitched the rest of
• 42:43
  Speaker 2: the game and allowed no runs, and the Red Sox
• 42:47
  Speaker 2: almost caught up and won. They lost four to three.
• 42:50
  Speaker 2: It is ridiculous that the Red Sox can't find a
• 42:52
  Speaker 2: guy to just go in there and throw a clean
• 42:55
  Speaker 2: first inning, Like, what are you doing, dude? And this
• 42:57
  Speaker 2: is a good Red Sox bullpend doing. Anybody they use
• 43:01
  Speaker 2: in that open role fucking sucks. It makes no sense.
• 43:04
  Speaker 2: It's like nobody in these Bayo games is capable of
• 43:09
  Speaker 2: pitching a good first inning. Nobody is, including Bayo. It's insane.
• 43:14
  Speaker 2: But then, of course, like I said, when Bayo comes
• 43:16
  Speaker 2: in after that opener, he's like a complete stud. He
• 43:19
  Speaker 2: looks awesome. It makes no sense to me. Bao did
• 43:23
  Speaker 2: have good the good matchup numbers, and I know I
• 43:25
  Speaker 2: liked Boston first five in that game, and that first
• 43:28
  Speaker 2: inning destroyed everything. You know, After the first inning, the
• 43:32
  Speaker 2: Red Sox allowed no more runs in the entire game.
• 43:35
  Speaker 2: I'm pissed, dude, I'm fucking pissed as a Red Sox fan.
• 43:40
  Speaker 2: Can the Red Sox win this game? I mean they can.
• 43:43
  Speaker 2: It's a really low otal, so it's expected to be
• 43:45
  Speaker 2: a low scoring game, like a lot of these Cleveland
• 43:48
  Speaker 2: games are. The Red Sox bullpen only used son Diego
• 43:52
  Speaker 2: as the opener and then Beao pitched eight innings or whatever,
• 43:55
  Speaker 2: seven innings I guess, because Cleveland didn't bat in the
• 43:58
  Speaker 2: ninth inning. So the Red Sox bullpen is rested here
• 44:02
  Speaker 2: ready to go. Cleveland is not as rested. They use
• 44:06
  Speaker 2: five relief pitchers yesterday and had to save the game.
• 44:10
  Speaker 2: So the Red Sox bullpen sets up better here, and
• 44:13
  Speaker 2: they're the better bullpen. They're rink sixth, which is pretty good.
• 44:16
  Speaker 2: Cleveland's not bad at eleventh, but the Red Sox have
• 44:19
  Speaker 2: the rested bullpen in addition to being the better bullpen,
• 44:22
  Speaker 2: so you gotta give the Red Sox a bullpen advantage here.
• 44:26
  Speaker 2: Cleveland's offense has not been great. They're at twenty although
• 44:29
  Speaker 2: the Red Sox haven't been really good yet all at
• 44:32
  Speaker 2: twenty third, but they've been a little bit better recently.
• 44:35
  Speaker 2: Sonny Gray is pitching for the Red Sox. He's been
• 44:38
  Speaker 2: solid three point two seventy Ray, one point two Whip Gray.
• 44:42
  Speaker 2: Not as good on the road though, four point twenty
• 44:44
  Speaker 2: six Roadie Ray, So that is a concern that he
• 44:47
  Speaker 2: hasn't been as good on the road. He's faced a
• 44:50
  Speaker 2: lot of weak offenses recently in Minnesota twice, Detroit twice,
• 44:55
  Speaker 2: Kansas City, San Diego a couple of starts before that,
• 44:58
  Speaker 2: most of the season really. But on the other hand,
• 45:02
  Speaker 2: I will say that because Sonny Gray was on Minnesota
• 45:05
  Speaker 2: for a while, Kansas City and Detroit were fairly familiar
• 45:08
  Speaker 2: with them, and he's still pitched all right. For the
• 45:11
  Speaker 2: majority of those starts. This month, he's pitching okay. He
• 45:15
  Speaker 2: failed to go five innings in his last outing against Minnesota.
• 45:17
  Speaker 2: I don't really know what happened in that outing. It
• 45:19
  Speaker 2: seems like they're limiting his pitch count because they only
• 45:22
  Speaker 2: let him go seventy five pitches there. He went four innings,
• 45:25
  Speaker 2: allowed three in runs. I mean they were in that game.
• 45:27
  Speaker 2: It wasn't that bad of a start. I don't know.
• 45:30
  Speaker 2: But the rest of his starts this month, he's gone
• 45:32
  Speaker 2: five plus innings overall. He's got twenty one strikeouts this
• 45:35
  Speaker 2: month and twenty one innings, seventeen hits allowed, six walks.
• 45:39
  Speaker 2: Those numbers are all good. He's just in his older
• 45:43
  Speaker 2: age here, he's been a bit too hittable, but this
• 45:45
  Speaker 2: season not really. He's allowed fewer than one hit per inning.
• 45:48
  Speaker 2: His strike cut rates not that high, which is not
• 45:50
  Speaker 2: really what he does at this point, and his walk
• 45:53
  Speaker 2: rates not that bad, So I don't know, he's been fine.
• 45:56
  Speaker 2: He's also going up against another AL Central opponent. It's
• 46:01
  Speaker 2: like every one of his opponents recently is the AL
• 46:03
  Speaker 2: Central and they're all familiar with him because except for Minnesota,
• 46:07
  Speaker 2: I guess, because he was on Minnesota. He's got a
• 46:10
  Speaker 2: lot of at bats against Cleveland in his career ninety three,
• 46:13
  Speaker 2: but he's been pretty good against them twenty five strikeouts,
• 46:15
  Speaker 2: four walks, one ninety four average allowed, five ninety two ops.
• 46:20
  Speaker 2: So Gray sets up like he should pitch okay here. Uh,
• 46:24
  Speaker 2: but he's going up against Parker Messick, who is the
• 46:26
  Speaker 2: much younger pitcher here and probably at this point the
• 46:30
  Speaker 2: better pitcher. Messick has been good two point two to
• 46:33
  Speaker 2: four e RA and one point oh four whip. He's
• 46:37
  Speaker 2: been a little bit worse at home, but two point
• 46:39
  Speaker 2: five yr not exactly bad. He's coming off a five
• 46:42
  Speaker 2: and two third inning shutout at Philadelphia, which is good.
• 46:45
  Speaker 2: Cleveland has won his last four outings, and in fact
• 46:48
  Speaker 2: they've won nine of his eleven starts this season. He's
• 46:52
  Speaker 2: got a thirty two to nine strike out walk raceio
• 46:54
  Speaker 2: this month, twenty six hits, a lot of twenty eight innings.
• 46:57
  Speaker 2: That's all good stuff over the court. The season more
• 47:00
  Speaker 2: of the same, well below one hit per inning, decently
• 47:04
  Speaker 2: low walk right in, a very high strikeout rate. So
• 47:07
  Speaker 2: he's been good. The Red Sox have not really seen
• 47:11
  Speaker 2: him either. Only Raphael and Wong have ever faced it before.
• 47:15
  Speaker 2: I don't know if he came in a relief role.
• 47:17
  Speaker 2: I don't know how that happened, because I think they've
• 47:19
  Speaker 2: both been on the Red Sox the entire time that
• 47:21
  Speaker 2: Messick has been in the Major so I don't know.
• 47:24
  Speaker 2: But they're combined one for three. Often they only hit
• 47:26
  Speaker 2: his Wong with a single. Wong also does have a walk.
• 47:31
  Speaker 2: Wong also not a very good hitter either. But it
• 47:35
  Speaker 2: looks like it's going to be a pitching matchup here.
• 47:37
  Speaker 2: Messick might have a little bit of a starting pitching
• 47:39
  Speaker 2: edge here, so you know, if you're gonna lean Cleveland,
• 47:43
  Speaker 2: I wouldn't necessarily disagree with it, but I would go
• 47:47
  Speaker 2: first five only with Cleveland because the Red Sox, as
• 47:49
  Speaker 2: I told you, do have a bullpen advantage here eighty
• 47:52
  Speaker 2: percent of ticket seventy nine percent of the cash on Cleveland,
• 47:55
  Speaker 2: so the money is fading them. But of course the
• 47:57
  Speaker 2: real story here is this is a low tote. The
• 48:00
  Speaker 2: odds makers opened it at seven, and then immediately it
• 48:03
  Speaker 2: looks like guys came in and took the under, and
• 48:05
  Speaker 2: now it's at six and a half. I agree with
• 48:08
  Speaker 2: the under in this game. I just I can't do
• 48:11
  Speaker 2: it at six and a half, dude. I mean, you
• 48:13
  Speaker 2: could go first five innings with it and find a
• 48:15
  Speaker 2: three and a half. You might be going under three
• 48:18
  Speaker 2: and a half at like minus money though, but that's
• 48:20
  Speaker 2: probably what I would do instead of going the full game,
• 48:23
  Speaker 2: because full game when you don't get that full seven
• 48:26
  Speaker 2: and Cleveland's bullpend is a little bit concerning here. I
• 48:30
  Speaker 2: just don't like doing it, even though again, when the
• 48:33
  Speaker 2: oddsmakers have a total that's this low, they're telling you
• 48:35
  Speaker 2: they think they think it's gonna be a low scoring game.
• 48:38
  Speaker 2: I also think that it will be. But I think
• 48:40
  Speaker 2: first five under makes the most sense to me in
• 48:42
  Speaker 2: that game, and I was consideringly putting that on my card.
• 48:45
  Speaker 2: But the number is just kind of keeping me away
• 48:47
  Speaker 2: from it a bit. You know. It's just it's not
• 48:50
  Speaker 2: a game where it's not really one of those under
• 48:53
  Speaker 2: the radar pitching matchups necessarily, you know, although it does
• 48:56
  Speaker 2: kind of look like a pitching matchup by might get
• 48:58
  Speaker 2: involved in, but really it's more about the number, all right,
• 49:01
  Speaker 2: Miami and the Mets, this is a surprisingly high scoring game. Yesterday.
• 49:05
  Speaker 2: The Mets won on a walk off home run, and
• 49:07
  Speaker 2: I believe there were a lot of walkoff home run
• 49:10
  Speaker 2: I think yesterday had a record number of walk off
• 49:13
  Speaker 2: home runs in Major League yesterday, something like that. I
• 49:16
  Speaker 2: don't know. I know the Mets were one of them.
• 49:20
  Speaker 2: That game went into extra innings. The starting pitching was
• 49:22
  Speaker 2: a little bit worse than I thought it would be,
• 49:24
  Speaker 2: so I was kind of surprised at how high scoring
• 49:26
  Speaker 2: that game was, especially since these offenses are not good.
• 49:30
  Speaker 2: But because it was an extra inning game, that means
• 49:32
  Speaker 2: the bullpen saw a lot of usage. Whepson looking at
• 49:35
  Speaker 2: Milwaukee hold on, Miami didn't use any of their relievers,
• 49:40
  Speaker 2: like they didn't use any one reliever for a lot
• 49:42
  Speaker 2: of pitches, so theoretically they could use any of these
• 49:46
  Speaker 2: guys again today. So they did use five relief pitchers,
• 49:49
  Speaker 2: but none of them saw a ton of action and
• 49:52
  Speaker 2: they were off the day before that, so Miami could
• 49:55
  Speaker 2: use these guys against. Their bullpend is in okay shape
• 49:58
  Speaker 2: coming into this game. The Mets bullpen used a little
• 50:02
  Speaker 2: bit more. They use six relief pitchers, used them for
• 50:05
  Speaker 2: more pitches. Both these bullpens are actually pretty good, but
• 50:08
  Speaker 2: Miami's is the better of the two, and they're a
• 50:10
  Speaker 2: little bit more rested after that game. Not neither arrested.
• 50:15
  Speaker 2: Though Miami is fifth in bullpen. The Mets are twelfth,
• 50:18
  Speaker 2: not bad either. Offensively, neither team is great. Miami is
• 50:22
  Speaker 2: in the middle of the pack those sixteen. The Mets
• 50:25
  Speaker 2: are still last thirtieth. Miami is going with a bullpen
• 50:30
  Speaker 2: game here though Tyler Phillips is listed as a starter,
• 50:33
  Speaker 2: and I can tell you the last time they did
• 50:34
  Speaker 2: that was on May twenty fourth, and that was a
• 50:38
  Speaker 2: low scoring game. It was a four to nothing game,
• 50:40
  Speaker 2: and in fact, Miami's bullpen game shut the Mets out
• 50:44
  Speaker 2: in that game in Miami. But Miami is a more
• 50:46
  Speaker 2: pitcher friendly ballpark than the Mets Stadium is, though not significantly,
• 50:51
  Speaker 2: so I don't really think but that was an interesting game.
• 50:54
  Speaker 2: Phillips was okay in the game, and really I think
• 50:57
  Speaker 2: that's what you're gonna get out of him. Again, He's
• 50:59
  Speaker 2: got decent night number here, one point seven ERA, one
• 51:02
  Speaker 2: point two to five whip isn't really that great, but
• 51:04
  Speaker 2: he's only gonna go out there for about three innings,
• 51:07
  Speaker 2: I would imagine, and then they're gonna turn it over
• 51:09
  Speaker 2: to the bullpen. And maybe that is concerning because they
• 51:12
  Speaker 2: did still use five guys out of the bullpen yesterday,
• 51:15
  Speaker 2: so they're planning on using the bullpen most of the
• 51:18
  Speaker 2: game here. Basically, that's kind of an issue. So I
• 51:21
  Speaker 2: don't know if I really love that. Phillips has been
• 51:23
  Speaker 2: good against the Mets, but I don't know if it's
• 51:25
  Speaker 2: worth really going into that much. But his numbers are
• 51:28
  Speaker 2: good against the Mets, but a bullpen game is a
• 51:30
  Speaker 2: bullpen game. Christian Scott is pitching for the Mets. He's
• 51:35
  Speaker 2: still a young guy. He's been alright. He's got a
• 51:37
  Speaker 2: three point two ERA, but his whip is a little
• 51:40
  Speaker 2: bit of a concern. One point three to eight. That's
• 51:43
  Speaker 2: not great. He's been worse at home four point five
• 51:46
  Speaker 2: home e RA. He pitched in that game that I
• 51:49
  Speaker 2: talked about against, that Phillips bullpen game, and Scott actually
• 51:53
  Speaker 2: shut out Miami for five to two thirds innings and
• 51:55
  Speaker 2: then the Mets bullpen blew the game, so it was
• 51:58
  Speaker 2: not really Scott's fault. He pitched pretty well in that game.
• 52:02
  Speaker 2: He's been pretty good actually this month. He's got not
• 52:04
  Speaker 2: twenty nine strikeouts in twenty four innings with only twenty
• 52:07
  Speaker 2: one hits allowed. Nine walks is not too bad. He's
• 52:11
  Speaker 2: got a high walk rate on the season, but a
• 52:13
  Speaker 2: lot of it is because his first outing he walked
• 52:16
  Speaker 2: five guys in one of the third innings. His walk
• 52:18
  Speaker 2: number has at least gone down from that since then.
• 52:21
  Speaker 2: He's a lot fewer than one hit per inning on
• 52:23
  Speaker 2: the season. He's got over one strike up per innings,
• 52:25
  Speaker 2: so I think Scott is a decent pitcher here. He
• 52:29
  Speaker 2: hasn't really gone that deep into most of his outings
• 52:31
  Speaker 2: yet though, He's only gone five innings twice, so we
• 52:35
  Speaker 2: don't know how deep he's really gonna go here. His
• 52:37
  Speaker 2: numbers against Miami are pretty good though, in twenty six
• 52:40
  Speaker 2: at bats. Although with these young guys, sometimes this is
• 52:43
  Speaker 2: kind of misleading because you'll see a pitcher, Oh, he's
• 52:45
  Speaker 2: good against this team, but if that team has finally
• 52:48
  Speaker 2: seen him, maybe they'll do better against him the next time,
• 52:51
  Speaker 2: you know what I mean. Like if a guy who's
• 52:54
  Speaker 2: faced the line up like once or twice, the unfamiliarity
• 52:58
  Speaker 2: edge was kind of there, and maybe you know, because
• 53:00
  Speaker 2: he's now seen him, it's not there anymore. But still
• 53:02
  Speaker 2: he does have good numbers against them, So I kind
• 53:04
  Speaker 2: of lean towards Scott pitching. Well, here, he's got a
• 53:08
  Speaker 2: six to two strike out walk ratio against them, only
• 53:10
  Speaker 2: one extra base hit aloud. Xavier Edwards has a double
• 53:13
  Speaker 2: and as half of the Miami hits off of him,
• 53:17
  Speaker 2: He's got a two thirty one average against him pitching
• 53:19
  Speaker 2: against Miami in a five point fifty five ops so
• 53:23
  Speaker 2: overall his numbers are good. Yeah, I mean, I think
• 53:27
  Speaker 2: I'm gonna lean Mets a little bit in this game,
• 53:29
  Speaker 2: even though I know they won in dramatic fashion yesterday.
• 53:32
  Speaker 2: The money seems to agree and there's a reason why
• 53:34
  Speaker 2: the Mets are favored even though the record sucks. They're
• 53:37
  Speaker 2: at minus like one thirty here, as makers are telling
• 53:40
  Speaker 2: you the Mets are either the better team or they
• 53:43
  Speaker 2: have the better starting pitch. Here, I might go, I
• 53:45
  Speaker 2: don't know, man, would you go first five or full
• 53:47
  Speaker 2: game with this? Maybe full game does make sense because
• 53:51
  Speaker 2: Miami did use their bullpen for the whole game yesterday.
• 53:55
  Speaker 2: They still they use them for fewer pitches, though, I
• 53:58
  Speaker 2: don't know. I could see the argument for both Mets
• 54:00
  Speaker 2: first five or Mets full game, but that's probably what
• 54:03
  Speaker 2: I would do in this game. One of those two.
• 54:05
  Speaker 2: I don't know which one is better. Really, sixty one
• 54:08
  Speaker 2: percent of tickets eighty five percent of the cash on
• 54:10
  Speaker 2: the Mets, so money seems to agree. There's a reason
• 54:13
  Speaker 2: why their favorite. But I just prefer to have a
• 54:15
  Speaker 2: young actual starting pitchers actually fairly good, although the worry
• 54:20
  Speaker 2: is he might not go that deep. So maybe a
• 54:22
  Speaker 2: first five inning play yeah, I'd probably Actually that's the
• 54:25
  Speaker 2: way I would lean. I guess first five innings on
• 54:27
  Speaker 2: the Mets makes the most sense, I think, but I'd
• 54:31
  Speaker 2: prefer to have what I'd prefer to have that over
• 54:33
  Speaker 2: the Miami bullpen game, I think so, even though their
• 54:36
  Speaker 2: bullpen arms are pretty good, all right, Milwaukee at Houston.
• 54:41
  Speaker 2: I lean to Milwaukee and Houston was in a very
• 54:43
  Speaker 2: bad spot yesterday. Houston was returning on from the road.
• 54:47
  Speaker 2: They were coming off a big series win over Texas.
• 54:50
  Speaker 2: Milwaukee got there, but it wasn't easy. I think they
• 54:52
  Speaker 2: had to win an extra innings. Yeah, they did, so
• 54:55
  Speaker 2: that was a sweat if you took Milwaukee in that
• 54:58
  Speaker 2: game yesterday. They did, but it was close. But part
• 55:03
  Speaker 2: of that handicap was Milwaukee has the better bullpen, and
• 55:06
  Speaker 2: that's what won out Houston's bullpen. They've been pitching better,
• 55:09
  Speaker 2: but they're still bad. They've used four relief pitches. They
• 55:12
  Speaker 2: use four relief pitcheres. Yesterday Milwaukee deduce five. So you
• 55:17
  Speaker 2: might want to avoid both bullpens here just because of
• 55:19
  Speaker 2: the usage yesterday. But Milwaukee has a bullpen edge anyway.
• 55:23
  Speaker 2: They're number ten in bullpen now. Their eray is really
• 55:25
  Speaker 2: good actually, so Milwaukee has really climbed the ranks in
• 55:29
  Speaker 2: the bullpen department. They're actually quite good. Houston's bullpen is
• 55:33
  Speaker 2: still really bad. They're ranked twenty six, but they're tied
• 55:36
  Speaker 2: for the worst ra with Anaheim. Even though they're pitching
• 55:39
  Speaker 2: a little bit better. There's still one of the worst bullpens.
• 55:42
  Speaker 2: Hitting wise, Houston's been solid other fifth, Milwaukee has been
• 55:46
  Speaker 2: moving up a little bit in that area as well.
• 55:48
  Speaker 2: They're eighteenth. They're not too bad on the offense though.
• 55:53
  Speaker 2: Brandon Sproute is pitching from Milwaukee though, and he is.
• 55:57
  Speaker 2: I can't figure him out, man, because I know he
• 55:58
  Speaker 2: has good stuff, but his numbers are still bad, and
• 56:02
  Speaker 2: it's mostly because he's just walking everybody. Now, he's got
• 56:05
  Speaker 2: a five point eight four ERA, one point five to
• 56:07
  Speaker 2: four whip. None of that is good. Obviously, He's been
• 56:10
  Speaker 2: better on the road five point h nine road, which
• 56:13
  Speaker 2: is still not good. He's failing to make it five
• 56:15
  Speaker 2: innings in the majority of his outings. The walk rate
• 56:18
  Speaker 2: is the concern here, man. His strike out rate looks good.
• 56:22
  Speaker 2: He's you're not even really allowing that many runs. He's
• 56:24
  Speaker 2: just not going deep into games. But his walk rate
• 56:27
  Speaker 2: is insane. On the course of the season, he's allowed
• 56:30
  Speaker 2: fewer than one hit per inning. He has more than
• 56:32
  Speaker 2: one strike up for inning, but he's walking more than
• 56:36
  Speaker 2: one guy every two innings. You can't do that, dude.
• 56:40
  Speaker 2: So that's the problem. But he does have good stuff.
• 56:43
  Speaker 2: He's got to figure out how to fix his command issues.
• 56:46
  Speaker 2: And Houston has never seen him before, so maybe he
• 56:48
  Speaker 2: does have some advantage in there because he's facing an
• 56:51
  Speaker 2: offense that hasn't seen him before. But I can't trust
• 56:53
  Speaker 2: him with how many walks he's issuing right now. I
• 56:56
  Speaker 2: can't do it. Houston is going with Peter Lambert, who
• 56:59
  Speaker 2: has actually been pretty good, you know, after a rocky
• 57:03
  Speaker 2: start to his career with Colorado. Lambert all of a
• 57:07
  Speaker 2: sudden is having a decent season right now with Houston,
• 57:10
  Speaker 2: and heughs his pitching has been really bad. He's his
• 57:13
  Speaker 2: pitching is so bad. Lambert is like one of their
• 57:15
  Speaker 2: better starting pitchers. He's got a three point seven to
• 57:18
  Speaker 2: ninety RA one point one seven woman. I mean, I'm
• 57:21
  Speaker 2: not gonna laugh at that. Those numbers are pretty good.
• 57:23
  Speaker 2: He's been bad at home though, or not as good
• 57:25
  Speaker 2: at home, I should say four point three to two
• 57:28
  Speaker 2: home y Ray. His recent pitching has been a little
• 57:31
  Speaker 2: bit more concerning. His walk rate hasn't been good. Eleven
• 57:34
  Speaker 2: walks in twenty one strikeouts in twenty five innings this month,
• 57:37
  Speaker 2: but only seventeen hits a lot, so that's good, but
• 57:40
  Speaker 2: he is walking too many guys recently over the course
• 57:43
  Speaker 2: of the season. Good strikeout rain almost one per inning.
• 57:45
  Speaker 2: That's fine. Fewer than one hit per inning by a lot,
• 57:48
  Speaker 2: that's good. Walk rate isn't that bad, but you want
• 57:52
  Speaker 2: to see it go down a little bit. But overall,
• 57:54
  Speaker 2: he's been decent against Milwaukee. His numbers areocre slash kind
• 58:01
  Speaker 2: of below average though in twenty three at bats two
• 58:04
  Speaker 2: sixty one average allowed eight h five ops. But remember,
• 58:07
  Speaker 2: I think all of that was when he was with
• 58:09
  Speaker 2: the Rockies and he wasn't pitching as well as he
• 58:11
  Speaker 2: currently is. Five strikeouts, four walks against them, So you
• 58:16
  Speaker 2: have to kind of weigh and yeah, he's not that
• 58:17
  Speaker 2: good against Milwaukee, but like all those numbers are in
• 58:20
  Speaker 2: the past, So what do you do about that? Right,
• 58:23
  Speaker 2: because he's pitching better now. I think, I lean, man,
• 58:27
  Speaker 2: this is a tough, tough game to figure out. I
• 58:30
  Speaker 2: think Houston first five makes some sense here where we're
• 58:35
  Speaker 2: looking here it's an interleague game. Oh yeah, I have
• 58:37
  Speaker 2: to scroll all the way down to find it. That's right. Oh,
• 58:40
  Speaker 2: actually they fixed it. This site is all over the place. Man,
• 58:43
  Speaker 2: The money is hitting Houston. But of course I would
• 58:45
  Speaker 2: do it first five. There's no way I'd want to
• 58:48
  Speaker 2: have Houston's bullpen involved in anything that I'm doing here.
• 58:51
  Speaker 2: But we have fifty nine percent of tickets on Milwaukee.
• 58:54
  Speaker 2: Public wants Milwaukee, even with Sproute having the worst numbers.
• 58:58
  Speaker 2: They want the team with the better record, I suppose,
• 59:02
  Speaker 2: But fifty of the cash on Houston, I don't really disagree.
• 59:06
  Speaker 2: You'll probably get Houston at a slight underdog price, maybe
• 59:09
  Speaker 2: right around a Pickham price if you go. I would
• 59:11
  Speaker 2: go first five on that though, but that would probably
• 59:14
  Speaker 2: be my lean Houston verse five. There are some arguments
• 59:19
  Speaker 2: to be had for an over in that game. Uh,
• 59:21
  Speaker 2: the totals at eight and a half, I mean both
• 59:23
  Speaker 2: bullpends are unrested here. I could potentially see both starters
• 59:29
  Speaker 2: being a little bit questionable here. So I wouldn't really
• 59:31
  Speaker 2: disagree with over eight and a half in that game either.
• 59:35
  Speaker 2: All right, Yes, correct, I use that rocky pun way
• 59:41
  Speaker 2: too often though. All right, next game is a Fox game,
• 59:45
  Speaker 2: which is the game that we got right yesterday or
• 59:47
  Speaker 2: the series that we got a winner in yesterday Atlanta Cincinnati.
• 59:52
  Speaker 2: We had Over on the show in that game yesterday,
• 59:54
  Speaker 2: and that one Atlanta with an eight to three win
• 59:57
  Speaker 2: in that game Chris pat Econotico bitch man. But at
• 1:00:01
  Speaker 2: least for Cincinnati, he's not pitching today, but it's it
• 1:00:04
  Speaker 2: might not be that much better for them today. To
• 1:00:06
  Speaker 2: be honest, Cincinnati's got a bad bullpen, even though this
• 1:00:12
  Speaker 2: website is not showing it. They did use some guys
• 1:00:14
  Speaker 2: out of the bullpen yesterday, both teams did. Atlanta used
• 1:00:18
  Speaker 2: a little bit more than Cincinnati did, actually, but Atlanta
• 1:00:21
  Speaker 2: is the way better bullpen. Atlanta's number one in bullpen
• 1:00:25
  Speaker 2: bullpen whip and they're right behind San Diego for the
• 1:00:28
  Speaker 2: best era as well. Very good Atlanta bullpen this season
• 1:00:32
  Speaker 2: so far, and not the case with Cincinnati. They're twenty eighth.
• 1:00:37
  Speaker 2: Cincinnati very bad bullpen, like probably a bottom three or
• 1:00:40
  Speaker 2: four bullpen. Really, Cincinnati's offense has been doing a bit better,
• 1:00:44
  Speaker 2: and of course a lot of these factored into that
• 1:00:46
  Speaker 2: ovary yesterday. Cincinnati has been hitting a bit better the
• 1:00:49
  Speaker 2: thirteenth offensively, the Braves are third, and the Braves have
• 1:00:53
  Speaker 2: good offense on the road. They hit well on the road.
• 1:00:57
  Speaker 2: Martin Perez is making the start for the Braves. You
• 1:01:00
  Speaker 2: got to hand it to him, man, you know, I mean,
• 1:01:03
  Speaker 2: he's a veteran journeyman pitcher. He's been on a bunch
• 1:01:06
  Speaker 2: of different teams. He's pretty old, doesn't throw hard, relies
• 1:01:09
  Speaker 2: on his pitch location and whatever. He's pitched pretty well though.
• 1:01:13
  Speaker 2: Two point seventy r one point zero three WHIP. I
• 1:01:16
  Speaker 2: don't think those numbers are gonna last, but he's pitched
• 1:01:19
  Speaker 2: pretty well. It hasn't been good on the road though,
• 1:01:21
  Speaker 2: four point three to eight Roady Ray, so this might
• 1:01:24
  Speaker 2: be not the greatest spot for him to pitch in here.
• 1:01:27
  Speaker 2: It's a hitter friendly ballpark as well, but he's pitched
• 1:01:31
  Speaker 2: well for the most part. Even the start where he
• 1:01:33
  Speaker 2: gave it four and runs against Miami, he had ten strikeouts,
• 1:01:37
  Speaker 2: which is unlike him. He's not a strikeout pitcher. This year.
• 1:01:41
  Speaker 2: He's got well below one hit a out for inning,
• 1:01:43
  Speaker 2: though his walk rate's not too bad and his strike
• 1:01:45
  Speaker 2: out rate is low ish. Of course, it would be
• 1:01:48
  Speaker 2: a lot lower without that one outlier with ten strikeouts, though,
• 1:01:52
  Speaker 2: but he's pitched alright. He's allowed yeah, two or four
• 1:01:56
  Speaker 2: runs and all but two starts, so he's well in
• 1:01:59
  Speaker 2: all but two. I should say. He's made a couple
• 1:02:01
  Speaker 2: of relief appearances as well, I think, but generally He's
• 1:02:05
  Speaker 2: pitched fairly well. I don't know if this is going
• 1:02:07
  Speaker 2: to be the right spot, though Cincinnati only has four
• 1:02:10
  Speaker 2: hitters have ever faced him, which is pretty surprising to
• 1:02:13
  Speaker 2: me because Perez has been around for so long in
• 1:02:16
  Speaker 2: both leagues, but more recently he was in the AL
• 1:02:19
  Speaker 2: more so so he was on Texas and I forget
• 1:02:21
  Speaker 2: where else. I think the Red Sox had him at
• 1:02:23
  Speaker 2: one point not that long ago. The Reds only have
• 1:02:26
  Speaker 2: twenty four at bats against him. They've hit well though,
• 1:02:29
  Speaker 2: three thirty three average nine nine ops nine to four
• 1:02:33
  Speaker 2: strike out walk ratio. But you have to dial it
• 1:02:36
  Speaker 2: back a little bit because Suarez, who was on Seattle
• 1:02:39
  Speaker 2: and was in his division, has has done a lot
• 1:02:42
  Speaker 2: of that damage. He's six for eleven with the home
• 1:02:45
  Speaker 2: run and four walks off him, so the majority of
• 1:02:48
  Speaker 2: that damage comes from one hitter. So I'm not quite
• 1:02:51
  Speaker 2: ready to say that Perez is a guy that you
• 1:02:54
  Speaker 2: should definitely fade here. Brady Singer is pitching for the Reds.
• 1:02:58
  Speaker 2: He's not having a good sea and six point two
• 1:03:01
  Speaker 2: six y R one point seven whip. He's actually considerably
• 1:03:05
  Speaker 2: better at home for whatever reason, which was the case
• 1:03:08
  Speaker 2: last year as well. Doesn't make much sense to me.
• 1:03:12
  Speaker 2: This is a hitter friendly park, but a lot of
• 1:03:14
  Speaker 2: times it is a mental thing. You're just more comfortable
• 1:03:16
  Speaker 2: at home. He's got a four point twenty six homey ra.
• 1:03:20
  Speaker 2: Hasn't been pitching well though, you know this month a
• 1:03:23
  Speaker 2: lot of hits. Twenty six hits in seventeen innings. That's
• 1:03:25
  Speaker 2: really bad. Nine home runs allowed is really bad. Fifteen
• 1:03:29
  Speaker 2: strikeouts is fine. Five walks not horrible, but he's been
• 1:03:33
  Speaker 2: ridiculously hit a bo He's allowed fourteen home runs on
• 1:03:37
  Speaker 2: the season. He's got one of the highest home run
• 1:03:39
  Speaker 2: rates in baseball. On top of lying a lot of
• 1:03:42
  Speaker 2: hits twenty more hits than innings pitch that is awful.
• 1:03:45
  Speaker 2: In that few innings pitched forty six with sixty six
• 1:03:49
  Speaker 2: hits allowed, that is bad. His strike out rate is
• 1:03:52
  Speaker 2: fairly lon his walk rate is just okay. Not a
• 1:03:56
  Speaker 2: lot to like about Singer, although he does pitch better
• 1:03:58
  Speaker 2: at home. His numbers A Gets It Atlanta are not
• 1:04:01
  Speaker 2: as bad as you might think, but they're a little
• 1:04:03
  Speaker 2: bit below average, and sixty seven at bats two fifty
• 1:04:05
  Speaker 2: four batting average, seven to seventy two ops, twenty five
• 1:04:09
  Speaker 2: strikeouts is good and seven walks, but generally I don't know. Man,
• 1:04:14
  Speaker 2: I would not want to back Singer here though I
• 1:04:16
  Speaker 2: know he pitches better at home, and I think the
• 1:04:18
  Speaker 2: money is actually back in Cincinnati here. Let me see. No,
• 1:04:24
  Speaker 2: Actually it's well, I don't know. Atlanta's very public, eighty
• 1:04:27
  Speaker 2: nine percent of tickets, ninety two percent of the cash
• 1:04:29
  Speaker 2: on them. It looks way too easy to play Atlanta
• 1:04:32
  Speaker 2: at about about minus one forty or so minus one thirties,
• 1:04:36
  Speaker 2: I'm not sure I would want to do it that way.
• 1:04:39
  Speaker 2: If you're gonna go Cincinnati here, you gotta make it
• 1:04:41
  Speaker 2: first five innings only, though, because you do not want
• 1:04:45
  Speaker 2: their bullpen here. But with both bullpens see some usage yesterday.
• 1:04:48
  Speaker 2: Both starting pitchers definitely have some question marks. I'd probably
• 1:04:52
  Speaker 2: look over more than anything else in this game. The
• 1:04:55
  Speaker 2: total is fairly high at nine and a half. I
• 1:04:57
  Speaker 2: think it's that high for a reason. So yeah, over
• 1:05:00
  Speaker 2: makes more sense to me in that game than anything else.
• 1:05:02
  Speaker 2: I know. Over yesterday was the play there. But yeah,
• 1:05:06
  Speaker 2: that's the way I see it. All right. I'm gonna
• 1:05:08
  Speaker 2: be right back talk about the rest of these games.
• 1:05:10
  Speaker 2: And I still have a play to give out in
• 1:05:12
  Speaker 2: the NBA game, even though you probably already know what
• 1:05:14
  Speaker 2: it's gonna be. But I will be right back, all right,
• 1:06:36
  Speaker 2: Who I'm bald? I took my hat off. I don't know.
• 1:06:39
  Speaker 2: I needed to cool my head. Man, all right, let
• 1:06:42
  Speaker 2: me see true. Next game up is the Cubs and
• 1:06:50
  Speaker 2: Saint Louis, which is also on Fox. Uh. Probably the
• 1:06:53
  Speaker 2: game it's gonna get more attention out of those two
• 1:06:56
  Speaker 2: Atlanta Cincinnati the other.
• 1:06:58
  Speaker 1: Uh.
• 1:06:58
  Speaker 2: This is a divisional series. Is of course, Saint Louis
• 1:07:01
  Speaker 2: won yesterday six to five, which kind of surprised me.
• 1:07:04
  Speaker 2: I still think the Cubs are the better team, and
• 1:07:06
  Speaker 2: the oddsmakers think that as well. The Cubs are going
• 1:07:09
  Speaker 2: to be a favorite here again, even though they're on
• 1:07:11
  Speaker 2: the road. This website not doing well. But these bullpens
• 1:07:16
  Speaker 2: did see some usage yesterday, but Saint Louis saw heavier
• 1:07:19
  Speaker 2: bullpen usage than the Cubs. I went and I looked
• 1:07:21
  Speaker 2: at him. Saint Louis used at least a couple more
• 1:07:25
  Speaker 2: pitchers than the Cubs did out of the bullpen, and
• 1:07:26
  Speaker 2: the Cubs have the better bullpens. The Cubs do have
• 1:07:29
  Speaker 2: a big bullpend advantage in this game. They're ranked eighth,
• 1:07:32
  Speaker 2: plus they're them were rested bullpen. Saint Louis is ranked
• 1:07:37
  Speaker 2: twentieth in bullpen. They're not like an atrocious bullpen, but
• 1:07:41
  Speaker 2: they're not that good. Offensively, the Cubs are still eighth
• 1:07:45
  Speaker 2: and Saint Louis is fifteenth, so the Cubs have had
• 1:07:47
  Speaker 2: the better hitting as well. I think the Cubs have
• 1:07:50
  Speaker 2: the starting pitching edge as well. With Ben Brown pitching,
• 1:07:53
  Speaker 2: he's been good, although remember a lot of these numbers
• 1:07:55
  Speaker 2: are pitching out of the bullpen. He's joined their starting
• 1:07:59
  Speaker 2: rotation because they have so many injuries. Very bad for
• 1:08:02
  Speaker 2: the Cubs. Dude, I'm still angry about Kate Horton getting
• 1:08:06
  Speaker 2: hurt because he was like I liked to like make
• 1:08:09
  Speaker 2: plays on Caate Horton's games and whatever. Yeah, that sucks.
• 1:08:13
  Speaker 2: Not Scott Horton. Uh. And they also lost Matthew Boyd.
• 1:08:17
  Speaker 2: But Brown is pitching pretty well. Even as a starter.
• 1:08:20
  Speaker 2: He's been good so far. But overall he's got a
• 1:08:22
  Speaker 2: two point h one e RA point nine to nine whip.
• 1:08:25
  Speaker 2: He's a guy who has not had good numbers in
• 1:08:27
  Speaker 2: the past, but I've pointed out, like I think his
• 1:08:29
  Speaker 2: stuff is actually good and he's capable of pitching well,
• 1:08:32
  Speaker 2: and we're kind of seeing that. Now he's been good
• 1:08:34
  Speaker 2: on the road as well. One point five to two,
• 1:08:37
  Speaker 2: Roady Ray. You can see that they're ramping up his
• 1:08:39
  Speaker 2: pitch count. Man, he's got a real full starter's workload
• 1:08:43
  Speaker 2: the last couple of outings, and he's been good. He's
• 1:08:45
  Speaker 2: gone five plus innings and each of them he allowed
• 1:08:47
  Speaker 2: four combined runs against Milwaukee and at Pittsburgh. That's a
• 1:08:51
  Speaker 2: good sign, dude. If he can go into Pittsburgh and
• 1:08:53
  Speaker 2: stifle that offense in their home stadium where they hit
• 1:08:57
  Speaker 2: well for six innings, that's a good sign. Even though
• 1:09:00
  Speaker 2: they lost the game, it wasn't his fault. So Brown
• 1:09:03
  Speaker 2: is pitching well right now. Over the course of the season,
• 1:09:06
  Speaker 2: he's got more than one strike up per inning, well
• 1:09:08
  Speaker 2: below one hit a lout per inning. His walk rate
• 1:09:10
  Speaker 2: is a little bit high though, so he's got to
• 1:09:12
  Speaker 2: get that under control a little bit. But since he's
• 1:09:14
  Speaker 2: been a starter, it hasn't really been that much of
• 1:09:16
  Speaker 2: an issue. He's going up against Saint Louis. They actually
• 1:09:19
  Speaker 2: have good numbers against him, but it's in a very
• 1:09:21
  Speaker 2: small sample. Eleven at bats, only five hitters to face
• 1:09:25
  Speaker 2: him before two seventy three average twelve oh three ops
• 1:09:30
  Speaker 2: so you know, I like the Cubs to get this game,
• 1:09:33
  Speaker 2: especially in a bounce back spot after yesterday's lost. But yeah,
• 1:09:37
  Speaker 2: I don't know. I'm a little bit concerned by these numbers.
• 1:09:40
  Speaker 2: Not a lot, though, I mean it's such a small
• 1:09:42
  Speaker 2: sample size. I would still prefer to back Brown here
• 1:09:46
  Speaker 2: overall Kyle lay He, but it is keeping it away
• 1:09:48
  Speaker 2: from being a play for me though. Kyle lay He
• 1:09:51
  Speaker 2: is pitching for the Cardinals. I think he was supposed
• 1:09:54
  Speaker 2: to start the other day and they pushed his start back.
• 1:09:57
  Speaker 2: He hasn't been good four point four to four eras
• 1:10:00
  Speaker 2: pretty mediocre, but his whip is really bad one point
• 1:10:03
  Speaker 2: five to eight, so his ERA should be higher than
• 1:10:05
  Speaker 2: it is based on that. But he's been decent at home.
• 1:10:08
  Speaker 2: He's got a three point five to four home e
• 1:10:10
  Speaker 2: RA more pitcher friendly stadium. He's actually pitched decent this month,
• 1:10:15
  Speaker 2: So that kind of concerns me about fading him as well.
• 1:10:17
  Speaker 2: I know we got an over correct in one of
• 1:10:19
  Speaker 2: his games recently that might have been his last? Was
• 1:10:22
  Speaker 2: that his most recent game? Do we get the over
• 1:10:24
  Speaker 2: right in that one? I think that was that game.
• 1:10:26
  Speaker 2: I don't know. Lay He's got twenty strike got twenty
• 1:10:29
  Speaker 2: one to the third innings this month, twenty hits allowed
• 1:10:32
  Speaker 2: eleven walks is the problem. Though he's allowed one or
• 1:10:36
  Speaker 2: fewer runs in all but the most recent start, the
• 1:10:39
  Speaker 2: Cincinnati one this month, so he is actually pitching fairly
• 1:10:43
  Speaker 2: effectively just recently. Just his walk rate is definitely too high.
• 1:10:47
  Speaker 2: That's a problem. Over the course of the season, he's
• 1:10:50
  Speaker 2: allowed more than one hit per inning. His walk rate
• 1:10:53
  Speaker 2: is high, his strike up rates is not that high,
• 1:10:55
  Speaker 2: so I still don't think that he's very good. But
• 1:10:58
  Speaker 2: he is pitching better right now for the most part,
• 1:11:01
  Speaker 2: and his numbers against the Cubs are not quite as
• 1:11:04
  Speaker 2: bad as you might want if you're actually gonna fade
• 1:11:06
  Speaker 2: him here. He's got thirty two at bats against him.
• 1:11:09
  Speaker 2: A two eighty one average is definitely high, but seven
• 1:11:12
  Speaker 2: thirty six ohps. They have not really hit him for
• 1:11:14
  Speaker 2: power here, for strikeouts, four walks. So I am gonna
• 1:11:18
  Speaker 2: leave it. I'm gonna leave it alone. But I would
• 1:11:20
  Speaker 2: lean to the Cubs in this game. I would go
• 1:11:22
  Speaker 2: full game on it. I think they have the better
• 1:11:24
  Speaker 2: bullpen and the more rested bullpen here, but the money
• 1:11:28
  Speaker 2: is indicating against it. The Cubs are very public eighty
• 1:11:31
  Speaker 2: one percent of tickets eighty percent of the cash. Kind
• 1:11:33
  Speaker 2: of surprises me though, because Saint Louis has had a
• 1:11:36
  Speaker 2: good record this season, so it surprises me the public
• 1:11:39
  Speaker 2: would be backing the Cubs with, you know, the record
• 1:11:43
  Speaker 2: disparity that they have here and a guy that they
• 1:11:45
  Speaker 2: don't you know, Brown is not like a name pitcher
• 1:11:48
  Speaker 2: or anything, So I don't know. Seems very strange to me.
• 1:11:52
  Speaker 2: But I hate it when this site refreshes and it jumps.
• 1:11:56
  Speaker 2: But yeah, the Cubs are around minus one thirty five here,
• 1:11:59
  Speaker 2: so but that's probably what I would do. Cubs money line.
• 1:12:03
  Speaker 2: San Francisco at Colorado. Colorado returned home and still got
• 1:12:07
  Speaker 2: the win yesterday, kind of surprising eight to six. A
• 1:12:11
  Speaker 2: high scoring game as well, which maybe that was less
• 1:12:14
  Speaker 2: surprising because it's course field. Even though San Francisco is
• 1:12:18
  Speaker 2: not a good offense. San Francisco used a lot of
• 1:12:22
  Speaker 2: bullpen arms yesterday. It might have been an extra inning game,
• 1:12:25
  Speaker 2: I'm not sure, but that was a lot of relief pitchers.
• 1:12:28
  Speaker 2: They used five. Colorado also used five. We could just
• 1:12:32
  Speaker 2: scroll up and see it was not an extra inning game.
• 1:12:36
  Speaker 2: Very very strange. A lot of bullpen usage there as
• 1:12:40
  Speaker 2: far as the bullpen. San Francisco has the better bullpen,
• 1:12:43
  Speaker 2: but they're not ranked that well. There where are they at? Yeah?
• 1:12:48
  Speaker 2: Where the hell are they? What? Oh? I just saw
• 1:12:51
  Speaker 2: Yeah the fifteenth though the ear ray is getting a
• 1:12:53
  Speaker 2: little bit worse. But I think they're a decent bullpen.
• 1:12:56
  Speaker 2: They're better than the Rockies still by like a run
• 1:12:59
  Speaker 2: on their era, and there a whip is better as well,
• 1:13:01
  Speaker 2: Rockies twenty first. So San Francisco has a better bullpen.
• 1:13:05
  Speaker 2: Neither offense has been very good. Colorado twenty first, San
• 1:13:09
  Speaker 2: Francisco twenty fifth. So do with that what you want.
• 1:13:13
  Speaker 2: Although you could see some hitting in this game, though
• 1:13:17
  Speaker 2: you know we're talking about course field here. I don't
• 1:13:19
  Speaker 2: think either starting pitcher is particularly good. Adrian Houser is
• 1:13:22
  Speaker 2: going for the Giants. He had a decent season last
• 1:13:25
  Speaker 2: year with I don't know. He was on a couple
• 1:13:28
  Speaker 2: of different teams last year, not the Giants though, I
• 1:13:30
  Speaker 2: don't think. But he's struggling with the Giants, which is
• 1:13:33
  Speaker 2: weird because usually their pitchers pitch a little bit better.
• 1:13:36
  Speaker 2: They got a pitcher friendly ballpark, not the case, and
• 1:13:39
  Speaker 2: obviously corse Field is not pitcher friendly. Howser's got a
• 1:13:42
  Speaker 2: five point three ERA one point five eight or one
• 1:13:45
  Speaker 2: point four to eight whip. That's not good. He is
• 1:13:48
  Speaker 2: better on the road four point two to two road,
• 1:13:50
  Speaker 2: which is insane. I don't know how he could possibly
• 1:13:53
  Speaker 2: be as bad as he is in a pitcher friendly
• 1:13:55
  Speaker 2: Giants ballpark, but he's better on the road, although you
• 1:13:59
  Speaker 2: know that might not be the case here, like this
• 1:14:02
  Speaker 2: is coursefield we're talking about here. He isn't really an
• 1:14:06
  Speaker 2: extreme fly ball pitcher, though, so you know, the way
• 1:14:10
  Speaker 2: that he pitches isn't that bad for course field. He's
• 1:14:14
  Speaker 2: a little bit tilted towards fly balls, but not a lot,
• 1:14:19
  Speaker 2: but over the course of the season, just not great
• 1:14:21
  Speaker 2: numbers overall, more than one hit per inning. His walk
• 1:14:24
  Speaker 2: rate is okay. Strikeout rate is really low this month
• 1:14:29
  Speaker 2: more of the same kind of His walk rate is
• 1:14:31
  Speaker 2: actually higher this month, which isn't good even though you
• 1:14:33
  Speaker 2: look at it and see, Oh, he's allowed three or
• 1:14:34
  Speaker 2: fewer earned runs in every outing this month, and he's
• 1:14:37
  Speaker 2: gone five to two thirds innings or more and all
• 1:14:40
  Speaker 2: of them except one and San Francisco has won his
• 1:14:42
  Speaker 2: last three outings, and he pitched decently against the Dodgers.
• 1:14:45
  Speaker 2: He also actually pitched decently at the A's Stadium. Yes,
• 1:14:49
  Speaker 2: I know, and that is a decent sign that he
• 1:14:52
  Speaker 2: pitched well against the Dodgers, pitched well in that as stadium,
• 1:14:55
  Speaker 2: that's a decent sign for pitching in course field. That's
• 1:14:58
  Speaker 2: all true. But the walk rate is just bad, dude,
• 1:15:01
  Speaker 2: Like again, you can't do this. You can't walk this
• 1:15:03
  Speaker 2: many guys. His walk rate recently is worse than it
• 1:15:06
  Speaker 2: has been on the season. His hit rate recently has
• 1:15:09
  Speaker 2: been way better. So it seems like he's changing the
• 1:15:12
  Speaker 2: way that he pitches and maybe overall it is better.
• 1:15:15
  Speaker 2: Maybe he is trending in a better direction here, but
• 1:15:18
  Speaker 2: I don't trust him. The Rockies have twenty seven at
• 1:15:21
  Speaker 2: bats against him. Only six hitters have fase him, but
• 1:15:24
  Speaker 2: they have hit three seventy often with a nine to
• 1:15:26
  Speaker 2: sixty nine ops, six strikeouts, two walks. I think generally
• 1:15:31
  Speaker 2: I'd probably lean towards fading Houser here. He will be
• 1:15:34
  Speaker 2: going up against Ryan Feltner, who is coming back from
• 1:15:37
  Speaker 2: the injury list for the Rockies here. He's been injured
• 1:15:40
  Speaker 2: for about a month. He wasn't doing well prior to
• 1:15:43
  Speaker 2: that six point three r one point five whip not
• 1:15:47
  Speaker 2: very good. He was better at home, which doesn't make
• 1:15:51
  Speaker 2: any sense, although it's a small sample size five point
• 1:15:54
  Speaker 2: five four era. I mean, he's just I don't know, man,
• 1:15:57
  Speaker 2: He's he's not a great pitcher. He was able to
• 1:16:00
  Speaker 2: go five innings a couple of times here, was decent
• 1:16:02
  Speaker 2: against the Dodgers before his start where he got injured
• 1:16:06
  Speaker 2: against San Diego. So there are some things that aren't
• 1:16:08
  Speaker 2: too bad here. He's allowed a little bit more than
• 1:16:10
  Speaker 2: one hit per inning. His walk rate is a little
• 1:16:13
  Speaker 2: bit too high, strike got rate a little bit low.
• 1:16:16
  Speaker 2: I don't know. I'm not a huge I'm not huge
• 1:16:19
  Speaker 2: on Feldner here Man Feldner against San Francisco, they only
• 1:16:25
  Speaker 2: have four hitters have ever faced in twenty eight at
• 1:16:27
  Speaker 2: bats two eighty six batting average allowed seven to seventy
• 1:16:30
  Speaker 2: five ohps eight one strike out walk ratio creal walk
• 1:16:35
  Speaker 2: ratio is good there, but the rest of those numbers
• 1:16:38
  Speaker 2: not great. But it is a small sample size, so
• 1:16:40
  Speaker 2: I don't know what do we do with this game?
• 1:16:42
  Speaker 1: Man?
• 1:16:44
  Speaker 2: I mean, I think an over is in consideration here.
• 1:16:46
  Speaker 2: Colorado is getting the money. It looks like the tickets
• 1:16:49
  Speaker 2: are I can't tell which percentage is whitch here, but
• 1:16:52
  Speaker 2: it looks like somewhere around fifty to fifty on the tickets,
• 1:16:55
  Speaker 2: but seventy six percent of the cash on Colorado. They
• 1:16:58
  Speaker 2: are an underdog here. I don't I don't know if
• 1:17:00
  Speaker 2: I would look that way. Man, I think it over
• 1:17:03
  Speaker 2: might make more sense here. You're gonna go over eleven
• 1:17:05
  Speaker 2: in this game, though it goes to eleven right on
• 1:17:09
  Speaker 2: a key number there because you have to break a
• 1:17:11
  Speaker 2: five to five tie. Oddsmakers are telling you they think
• 1:17:15
  Speaker 2: there's there're gonna be runs in this game. So do
• 1:17:18
  Speaker 2: what that would you want? But I don't know. I
• 1:17:19
  Speaker 2: might listen to them in that game and consider the over,
• 1:17:21
  Speaker 2: but I don't want to do anything with that game. Obviously,
• 1:17:25
  Speaker 2: Yankees at the A's. I had a correct lean in
• 1:17:27
  Speaker 2: that game, which was Yankees team total over was I
• 1:17:31
  Speaker 2: thought what made the most I think I mentioned that right,
• 1:17:33
  Speaker 2: That was what I thought made the most sense in
• 1:17:34
  Speaker 2: that game. Uh, that did happen. I thought the Yankees
• 1:17:38
  Speaker 2: would win, which they also did eight to two. Yankees
• 1:17:42
  Speaker 2: are the better team overall.
• 1:17:45
  Speaker 1: Uh.
• 1:17:45
  Speaker 2: The A's used basically every relief pitcher they have yesterday,
• 1:17:48
  Speaker 2: so that's also not a good sign. Since the Yankees
• 1:17:51
  Speaker 2: are the better bullpen of the two anyway, and now
• 1:17:54
  Speaker 2: the A's have used like all their relief arms. That's
• 1:17:57
  Speaker 2: not good. Yankees only used three uh and use cruise
• 1:18:01
  Speaker 2: for two bitches. So the Yankees have a big bullpen
• 1:18:03
  Speaker 2: advantage here in my opinion. Their bullpens decent at thirteenth.
• 1:18:07
  Speaker 2: Their eray is quite good. The A's are twenty third
• 1:18:12
  Speaker 2: nowhere near is good plus very unrested, So big bullpen
• 1:18:16
  Speaker 2: edge to the Yankees here. Yankees also have the number
• 1:18:19
  Speaker 2: two offense. The A's are number eleven right now. That
• 1:18:22
  Speaker 2: also goes to eleven. Both offenses are pretty good. The
• 1:18:27
  Speaker 2: pitching might be able to counter that somewhat. Ryan Weathers
• 1:18:31
  Speaker 2: is pitching for the Yankees, and he's been good. Three
• 1:18:33
  Speaker 2: point one four Ray, one point one two Whip. He's
• 1:18:37
  Speaker 2: been good on the road as well, two point eight
• 1:18:39
  Speaker 2: to one Roady Ray. He's coming off a seven inning
• 1:18:41
  Speaker 2: shutout of Tampa Bay. Had a little bit of a
• 1:18:44
  Speaker 2: blip in the game prior to that against Toronto, but
• 1:18:46
  Speaker 2: he still had seven strikeouts and no walks in that one,
• 1:18:49
  Speaker 2: so even that start wasn't that bad. It's like the
• 1:18:52
  Speaker 2: two starts where he gave up five e runs, his
• 1:18:54
  Speaker 2: strikeout rate was still really high. I think Weathers is
• 1:18:57
  Speaker 2: actually good, man. His numbers this season are good over
• 1:19:00
  Speaker 2: one strike up parinning overall, below one hit parinning overall.
• 1:19:04
  Speaker 2: Walk rate is fairly low as well. Those types of
• 1:19:06
  Speaker 2: numbers are continuing this month. The Yankees have won five
• 1:19:10
  Speaker 2: of his last six starts. There's not a lot to
• 1:19:13
  Speaker 2: dislike about Weathers. The question is how is he gonna
• 1:19:17
  Speaker 2: do in this A's stadium? Because we have to we
• 1:19:19
  Speaker 2: have Coursefield and we have the A's Stadium Sacramento, both
• 1:19:23
  Speaker 2: going on over the weekend here have to handicap both
• 1:19:26
  Speaker 2: of the most hit or friendly ballparks here. How is
• 1:19:29
  Speaker 2: Weathers going to do in this stadium? That is kind
• 1:19:31
  Speaker 2: of what you have to try to figure out here.
• 1:19:34
  Speaker 2: I don't know, man. I think he's never pitched in
• 1:19:35
  Speaker 2: the stadium before. He did pitch against the A's in
• 1:19:40
  Speaker 2: Yankee Stadium early this season. He was good. He went
• 1:19:43
  Speaker 2: eight innings, allowed one run on seven hits, seven strikeouts,
• 1:19:47
  Speaker 2: no walks. That was a good outing from him. You
• 1:19:50
  Speaker 2: gotta look at his fly ball rate, and yes, he
• 1:19:52
  Speaker 2: is more of a fly ball pitcher. You know, he
• 1:19:56
  Speaker 2: skews about two thirds fly ball, which is inrea or
• 1:19:59
  Speaker 2: maybe a little bit les than that, but that's not great.
• 1:20:03
  Speaker 2: So you know, I don't know. I mean I I
• 1:20:06
  Speaker 2: worry about him a little bit in this game. But
• 1:20:08
  Speaker 2: he has good numbers against the A's. He's got good
• 1:20:11
  Speaker 2: numbers overall. They have twenty four at bats against some
• 1:20:13
  Speaker 2: seven strikeouts, no walks, two fifty average six twenty five ops.
• 1:20:17
  Speaker 2: I think Weather's I lean more towards him pitching well
• 1:20:21
  Speaker 2: here though than not. Uh, the A's will be going
• 1:20:23
  Speaker 2: with J. T. Gin who is having a decent season,
• 1:20:27
  Speaker 2: but he doesn't pitch as well in this stadium at home,
• 1:20:29
  Speaker 2: which obviously makes sense because it ruins pitchers. Three point
• 1:20:34
  Speaker 2: one to nine ERA, one point one four whip Those
• 1:20:36
  Speaker 2: are good numbers, but five point two to one home
• 1:20:39
  Speaker 2: he ra compared to two point oh eight on the road,
• 1:20:42
  Speaker 2: So again he struggles in this stadium. Wasn't good in
• 1:20:45
  Speaker 2: his last outing either against San Diego, but that can
• 1:20:48
  Speaker 2: be explained because you remember what he did the prior
• 1:20:51
  Speaker 2: game at Anaheim. He took a no hitter into the
• 1:20:54
  Speaker 2: ninth inning and he lost it in the ninth inning.
• 1:20:56
  Speaker 2: So I told you I thought he was gonna be
• 1:20:58
  Speaker 2: in a letdown spot, a hango spot. Ever, of that
• 1:21:00
  Speaker 2: when you're that close to a no hitter, I think
• 1:21:03
  Speaker 2: you're just you're just not gonna be quite up for
• 1:21:06
  Speaker 2: the next game. Man. It's hard to get back up
• 1:21:08
  Speaker 2: off the mat. So I think that explains why he
• 1:21:10
  Speaker 2: was so bad in the next game against San Diego,
• 1:21:12
  Speaker 2: where he walked six guys in two and a third innings,
• 1:21:15
  Speaker 2: only allowed two runs and no hit them for two
• 1:21:18
  Speaker 2: and a third innings, but he was just all over
• 1:21:21
  Speaker 2: the place, man. So I actually think he will pitch
• 1:21:24
  Speaker 2: better than that here because you can kind of explain
• 1:21:27
  Speaker 2: why he didn't pitch well there. But I don't know.
• 1:21:29
  Speaker 2: I don't I don't like him at home though. Uh.
• 1:21:31
  Speaker 2: And overall his numbers, there are some concerns here. His
• 1:21:34
  Speaker 2: hit rate is really good. He's allowed very few hits.
• 1:21:37
  Speaker 2: Strike got rate, he's not really a strike up pitcher.
• 1:21:39
  Speaker 2: He's all right in that department. His walk rate is
• 1:21:42
  Speaker 2: the concern. He walks way too many guys, but again
• 1:21:45
  Speaker 2: some of it is because of that last outing. He's
• 1:21:47
  Speaker 2: had a couple of starts, so he's just walked a
• 1:21:49
  Speaker 2: ton and so really it's it's kind of weird, dude,
• 1:21:52
  Speaker 2: because he has three starts over the season where he
• 1:21:56
  Speaker 2: said four more walks in those three and that amounts
• 1:21:59
  Speaker 2: to fit fifteen of the twenty three walks that he's
• 1:22:01
  Speaker 2: had this season. So I don't know. It's like he's
• 1:22:04
  Speaker 2: either walking everybody or his command is fine. I don't
• 1:22:08
  Speaker 2: really get it. But also I don't really quite understand
• 1:22:10
  Speaker 2: why he's that bad in the stadium because he's not
• 1:22:12
  Speaker 2: an extreme fly ball pitcher. So I don't know. Man,
• 1:22:16
  Speaker 2: there's a lot to consider in this game. Gin has
• 1:22:18
  Speaker 2: been okay against the Yankees in the past. In twelve
• 1:22:20
  Speaker 2: at bats, not a huge sample, two fifty average, allowed
• 1:22:24
  Speaker 2: five hundred ops, no extra base hits, four strikeouts, no walks.
• 1:22:31
  Speaker 2: I'm almost tempted to say first five under in this game.
• 1:22:35
  Speaker 2: I mean, that might be the way I would kind
• 1:22:37
  Speaker 2: of lean here. It sounds insane in an A's game,
• 1:22:40
  Speaker 2: but the oddsmakers put the total up at nine and
• 1:22:42
  Speaker 2: a half, so it's not the highest total that you've
• 1:22:45
  Speaker 2: seen in the A stadium here, it's low for an
• 1:22:48
  Speaker 2: A's home game. Money is coming in towards the Yankees.
• 1:22:51
  Speaker 2: They're around minus one fifty here. They're public it looks
• 1:22:54
  Speaker 2: like initially they dropped on the money line, but now
• 1:22:56
  Speaker 2: they're getting the cash eighty two percent of tickets, ninety
• 1:22:59
  Speaker 2: percent of the cash on them. I could see the
• 1:23:02
  Speaker 2: argument for it. I think the Yankees probably will win
• 1:23:04
  Speaker 2: this game. I think if you go Yankees, you go
• 1:23:06
  Speaker 2: full game here and I maybe just lay the money line.
• 1:23:11
  Speaker 2: If you can find it at around minus one fifty
• 1:23:13
  Speaker 2: or less, you could make your own minus one run line.
• 1:23:16
  Speaker 2: I would probably do something like that with the Yankees
• 1:23:18
  Speaker 2: here if I was gonna do that. But I think
• 1:23:20
  Speaker 2: at first five Under actually makes some sense here. I
• 1:23:23
  Speaker 2: know you're going against gim not doing well at home,
• 1:23:25
  Speaker 2: but I just kind of pointed out that maybe he
• 1:23:27
  Speaker 2: should actually pitch a little bit better than that. Weathers
• 1:23:31
  Speaker 2: might actually be able to pitch. Okay here too, full
• 1:23:34
  Speaker 2: game total is not that high you're looking at. Probably
• 1:23:36
  Speaker 2: you might even get a five in the first five
• 1:23:38
  Speaker 2: innings here. I don't know what the number would be,
• 1:23:40
  Speaker 2: but Under that makes some sense to me in that game.
• 1:23:43
  Speaker 2: All right, Arizona at Seattle. I thought this game was
• 1:23:47
  Speaker 2: gonna be a lot lower scoring yesterday. It was not.
• 1:23:50
  Speaker 2: I think it went to extra innings. Seattle won seven
• 1:23:52
  Speaker 2: to six. This might have been one of those walkoff games. Yep,
• 1:23:55
  Speaker 2: Seattle won all the extra inning games ended in ten
• 1:23:58
  Speaker 2: innings yesterday. Get rid of the ghost Runners, man, let's
• 1:24:01
  Speaker 2: have some eighteen inning games come back. I'm sick of
• 1:24:04
  Speaker 2: the ghost Runners. But Seattle was able to win, even
• 1:24:07
  Speaker 2: though it was kind of a questionable spot, I thought,
• 1:24:09
  Speaker 2: because Seattle had just overtaken first place in the division
• 1:24:13
  Speaker 2: with a sweep over the A's on the road, and
• 1:24:15
  Speaker 2: we're returning home from that, so I thought they were
• 1:24:17
  Speaker 2: in a bad spot, but they still were able to
• 1:24:19
  Speaker 2: get out of there with a win. I think Seattle
• 1:24:22
  Speaker 2: has the better of the two bullpens here, but they
• 1:24:24
  Speaker 2: use all They basically use everybody out of the bullpen yesterday,
• 1:24:27
  Speaker 2: which isn't good. Obviously, Arizona used a little bit less
• 1:24:32
  Speaker 2: of their bullpen. These five guys out of the bullpen.
• 1:24:34
  Speaker 2: Arizona's way third and bullpen because I arrange it by
• 1:24:37
  Speaker 2: whip and Seattle is eighteenth. But Seattle's era is almost
• 1:24:41
  Speaker 2: a run better. Although Arizona's bullpen, I have to admit,
• 1:24:44
  Speaker 2: is better than I thought they were, so I don't
• 1:24:46
  Speaker 2: think I don't think they're the third best bullpend, but
• 1:24:48
  Speaker 2: I don't think they're bad either, and I think Seattle's
• 1:24:51
  Speaker 2: is slightly better, but because they're unrested, maybe Arizona does
• 1:24:55
  Speaker 2: have a slight bullpen edge in this game. I think
• 1:24:57
  Speaker 2: it's close. Hitting wise, Zona has been pretty good again
• 1:25:01
  Speaker 2: either tenth now they've been hitting well recently Seattle's fourteenth,
• 1:25:05
  Speaker 2: so both teams have actually started hitting better again. Then
• 1:25:09
  Speaker 2: we look at this pitching matchup here. The odds makers
• 1:25:11
  Speaker 2: are putting a low total on this, so the odds
• 1:25:14
  Speaker 2: makers think this is gonna be a pitching duel, even
• 1:25:16
  Speaker 2: though it's my favorite. Ryan Nelson pitching for the d Backs.
• 1:25:20
  Speaker 2: He's got a four point six five yrray, not great,
• 1:25:22
  Speaker 2: but you gotta admit his whip is pretty good at
• 1:25:26
  Speaker 2: one point one eight. He's he's better than I, you know,
• 1:25:30
  Speaker 2: think that he is. I guess even though he was
• 1:25:31
  Speaker 2: terrible for a few years. I don't know what happened.
• 1:25:34
  Speaker 2: I thought he was pine tiring or something last year
• 1:25:36
  Speaker 2: because I don't know how with like it was last year,
• 1:25:39
  Speaker 2: like all of Arizona's starting pitchers got worse, but then
• 1:25:43
  Speaker 2: Nelson got better, and it made no sense to me.
• 1:25:46
  Speaker 2: Nelson's been good on the road three point one eight
• 1:25:49
  Speaker 2: ROADI ray, So that actually looks good because you can
• 1:25:53
  Speaker 2: kind of explain it because Arizona is a hitter friendly ballpark.
• 1:25:57
  Speaker 2: Now he's gonna pitch in a pitcher friendly park in
• 1:25:59
  Speaker 2: sat So and his roadio raise much better, so he
• 1:26:03
  Speaker 2: might pitch well here. He was pretty good in his
• 1:26:06
  Speaker 2: last downing against the Rockies. I know they're not a
• 1:26:08
  Speaker 2: good offense. He only struck out three. His strikeout rates
• 1:26:11
  Speaker 2: not that great, but he went eight innings, allowed one
• 1:26:13
  Speaker 2: ear and run. He's pitched well this month. He's allowed
• 1:26:15
  Speaker 2: three or fewer earned runs in every outing. He's gone
• 1:26:18
  Speaker 2: at least five and two thirds in every outing. Twenty
• 1:26:21
  Speaker 2: five strikeouts, eight walks. That's a decent ratio. Not a
• 1:26:24
  Speaker 2: lot of walks. Not a lot of hits either, twenty
• 1:26:26
  Speaker 2: four hits in thirty four to third innings. Unfortunately. Yes,
• 1:26:30
  Speaker 2: I have to admit Nelson has pitched well this month,
• 1:26:33
  Speaker 2: but he's faced mostly bad offenses. Though the only offense
• 1:26:37
  Speaker 2: he's faced that's legit is the Cubs this month, and
• 1:26:40
  Speaker 2: that was his shortest started, though he did okay in
• 1:26:43
  Speaker 2: that start too on the road. But after that he
• 1:26:45
  Speaker 2: faced the Mets, Texas, San Francisco, and Colorado at home,
• 1:26:50
  Speaker 2: and Texas was in that Texas ball park two so
• 1:26:53
  Speaker 2: I'm not I don't want to be overly impressed by that,
• 1:26:56
  Speaker 2: because those are weak offenses. But he's been pretty good
• 1:26:58
  Speaker 2: against Seattle in a very small sample. Seattle really hasn't
• 1:27:02
  Speaker 2: even seen him much, uh, because he's mostly been in
• 1:27:04
  Speaker 2: the National League. They only have four hitters who have
• 1:27:07
  Speaker 2: faced him nine at best. They only have one hit,
• 1:27:09
  Speaker 2: which is a home run from former Boston Red Sox
• 1:27:12
  Speaker 2: Rob Refsnyder. They got five strikeouts, two walks against him,
• 1:27:17
  Speaker 2: one to eleven batting average seven seventeen OPS. I actually
• 1:27:21
  Speaker 2: lean towards Nelson pitching well here. I don't want to
• 1:27:25
  Speaker 2: do it, but that's just the way it looks. He's
• 1:27:26
  Speaker 2: been in better form recently. He's better on the road.
• 1:27:29
  Speaker 2: This is a pitcher could do some ballpark He's unfamiliar
• 1:27:33
  Speaker 2: to the Seattle which might help him a little bit.
• 1:27:36
  Speaker 2: He's going up against Brian wu who you know. I
• 1:27:39
  Speaker 2: also like he's been pretty good a three point eight
• 1:27:42
  Speaker 2: two ERA, one point zero four whip, although he had
• 1:27:44
  Speaker 2: some struggles recently and he just now seems to be
• 1:27:48
  Speaker 2: kind of coming back into form. He's been good at
• 1:27:50
  Speaker 2: home two point nine ERA at home, which makes sense.
• 1:27:54
  Speaker 2: Pitcher friendly ballparker though actually I forgot his last outing
• 1:27:56
  Speaker 2: wasn't that good on the road at Kansas City. Prior
• 1:28:00
  Speaker 2: to that, he had three good starts in a row,
• 1:28:02
  Speaker 2: which made it look, you know, it looked like he
• 1:28:04
  Speaker 2: was coming back in a form. I still think that
• 1:28:07
  Speaker 2: start last time out was maybe a bit of an outlier,
• 1:28:10
  Speaker 2: like I never really want to assume that Wu was
• 1:28:12
  Speaker 2: gonna do bad, right like I think generally it just
• 1:28:14
  Speaker 2: makes sense to predict that he's gonna pitch well because
• 1:28:17
  Speaker 2: he does that way more often than he doesn't. He's
• 1:28:20
  Speaker 2: allowed way fewer than one hit per inning. His walk
• 1:28:23
  Speaker 2: rate is a little bit higher than usual from him
• 1:28:26
  Speaker 2: usually he does not walk like anybody if I remember correctly,
• 1:28:31
  Speaker 2: and his strike out rate is right in line with
• 1:28:33
  Speaker 2: what you expect. He's not a huge strike up pitcher.
• 1:28:35
  Speaker 2: He's an extreme fly ball pitcher, though, which it's too
• 1:28:38
  Speaker 2: extreme for me at this point. That would worry me
• 1:28:40
  Speaker 2: a little bit, even though I know he's pitching in
• 1:28:42
  Speaker 2: a very pitcher friendly park here where not a lot
• 1:28:45
  Speaker 2: of home runs get hit. But still he's only allowed
• 1:28:47
  Speaker 2: six home runs this season, so his fly ball rate
• 1:28:50
  Speaker 2: is not really translating to allowing home runs. His numbers
• 1:28:53
  Speaker 2: against Arizona. They have not seen much of him. Four
• 1:28:56
  Speaker 2: of their hitters have seen him twenty at bats. They
• 1:28:58
  Speaker 2: have no extra base hits, no strikeouts, one walk, two
• 1:29:02
  Speaker 2: fifty batting urge five thirty six ops. So I think
• 1:29:05
  Speaker 2: the oddsmakers do have this right putting this total low.
• 1:29:09
  Speaker 2: But because of the bullpen usage yesterday, I would go
• 1:29:12
  Speaker 2: first five only on the under if I was gonna
• 1:29:15
  Speaker 2: play this. We see the percentages here, eighty five percent
• 1:29:18
  Speaker 2: of tickets, ninety two percent of the cash on the under.
• 1:29:20
  Speaker 2: I agree with the under, but it's teetering on six
• 1:29:23
  Speaker 2: and a half for the full game. Dude. You're seeing
• 1:29:25
  Speaker 2: seven six and a half out there. Definitely there is
• 1:29:27
  Speaker 2: a reason for that. But I would worry about these
• 1:29:29
  Speaker 2: bullpens with the usage they had yesterday, especially Seattle's usage.
• 1:29:34
  Speaker 2: It concerns me, dude. So I think under first five
• 1:29:38
  Speaker 2: is the way I would attack this game. I think
• 1:29:40
  Speaker 2: both starters might actually pitch well. I like how the
• 1:29:44
  Speaker 2: data here has this as k Nelson Kein Nelson, Yeah,
• 1:29:49
  Speaker 2: that's his name. The money is also indicating towards Seattle.
• 1:29:53
  Speaker 2: Seattle's about a minus one forty something favorite. Arizona's a
• 1:29:57
  Speaker 2: dreaded public underdog here sixty four percent tickets, fifty five
• 1:30:00
  Speaker 2: percent of the cash on them. I think the public
• 1:30:02
  Speaker 2: is just looking at the records and seeing Arizona's been
• 1:30:05
  Speaker 2: better recently. Whatever. That probably is why. But you know,
• 1:30:10
  Speaker 2: you usually do not want to be on a public underdog,
• 1:30:13
  Speaker 2: so Seattle might be aside to look at. But if
• 1:30:15
  Speaker 2: I was gonna do that, I would go first five.
• 1:30:18
  Speaker 2: I mean, I might not disagree with that because it's
• 1:30:21
  Speaker 2: Wu over Nelson, and you know, I like Wu a
• 1:30:23
  Speaker 2: lot better than Nelson, but I think it's close in
• 1:30:26
  Speaker 2: this matchup. But yeah, if you're gonna go Seattle, I
• 1:30:28
  Speaker 2: think first five innings makes more sense here. All right,
• 1:30:35
  Speaker 2: ghost runners inflating RBIs I mean.
• 1:30:41
  Speaker 1: Not.
• 1:30:41
  Speaker 2: I mean it not that many games going to extra innings.
• 1:30:44
  Speaker 2: It's the ghost runners. The problem with it is you
• 1:30:47
  Speaker 2: don't earn the runner. It's just not it's not even
• 1:30:50
  Speaker 2: baseball anymore. And it ruins unders. And you know me,
• 1:30:53
  Speaker 2: because you can call me the undertaker, I guess I
• 1:30:56
  Speaker 2: take more unders than overs because the public tends to
• 1:30:58
  Speaker 2: be on overs. So yeah, I mean I hate it
• 1:31:02
  Speaker 2: because it hurts the unders. All right, Then we have
• 1:31:04
  Speaker 2: Philly's Dodgers, and I did warn last night even though
• 1:31:08
  Speaker 2: Wheeler was pitching for Philly, his numbers were not good
• 1:31:11
  Speaker 2: against Philly. I also told you that Freddy Freeman rex
• 1:31:14
  Speaker 2: Zach Wheeler, and indeed, if you played that prop on
• 1:31:17
  Speaker 2: Freddy Freeman, you got it done with one swing of
• 1:31:20
  Speaker 2: the bat because he hit a home run, and his
• 1:31:22
  Speaker 2: home run in like that immediately got him over the
• 1:31:25
  Speaker 2: hits plus runs plus RBIs. So if you played that
• 1:31:28
  Speaker 2: at won now. As far as today's game, it's an
• 1:31:35
  Speaker 2: interesting pitching matchup today with the pitchers not really that good,
• 1:31:38
  Speaker 2: but it's interesting. So the Dodgers did win yesterday. So
• 1:31:42
  Speaker 2: the Dodgers were able to beat Zach Wheeler and are
• 1:31:46
  Speaker 2: on their way to winning this series potentially here obviously,
• 1:31:48
  Speaker 2: if you win the first game of a three game series,
• 1:31:51
  Speaker 2: it's pretty likely you're gonna win the series. The Dodgers
• 1:31:54
  Speaker 2: used three relief pitchers yesterday. Their boltman has been good,
• 1:31:57
  Speaker 2: but they did use their closer and whatever. Philadelphia's bullpen
• 1:32:00
  Speaker 2: is not bad and they're rested right now though, so
• 1:32:03
  Speaker 2: I like both bullpens. Though the Dodgers are ranked number two,
• 1:32:06
  Speaker 2: they're one of the top bullpen erays as well, good
• 1:32:10
  Speaker 2: stuff from their bullpend this year. Phillies are not bad either.
• 1:32:13
  Speaker 2: They're at fourteenth. They're a decent bullpen. Their ray is
• 1:32:16
  Speaker 2: a little bit higher than maybe it should be if
• 1:32:20
  Speaker 2: they're ranked fourteenth, but they're not bad. Andrew Painter is
• 1:32:24
  Speaker 2: pitching for Philly. The oh wait and the offenses. Yeah,
• 1:32:26
  Speaker 2: the Dodgers are number one in offense. Phillies have actually
• 1:32:29
  Speaker 2: been really struggling. They're twenty eighth, so they really have
• 1:32:32
  Speaker 2: not gotten it going offensively. So that's a problem for
• 1:32:35
  Speaker 2: the Phillies, huge, huge hitting disparity right now for the Dodgers.
• 1:32:40
  Speaker 2: Painter is pitching for the Phillies. He's still in his
• 1:32:43
  Speaker 2: rookie season. He's had some struggles Man five point four ERA,
• 1:32:47
  Speaker 2: one point four to six whip, that's not good. He's
• 1:32:50
  Speaker 2: been a bit worse on the road as well. Five
• 1:32:52
  Speaker 2: point nine to five. Roadyra pitched fairly well in his
• 1:32:56
  Speaker 2: last three starts, though he allowed two or fewer earned
• 1:32:59
  Speaker 2: runs in all three, but against the Red Sox Cincinnati Cleveland.
• 1:33:04
  Speaker 2: Really the only one of those offenses that does much
• 1:33:07
  Speaker 2: of anything is Cincinnati is right now. So I don't
• 1:33:09
  Speaker 2: know what's you know, how much weight to put into that. Also,
• 1:33:12
  Speaker 2: he's not striking a lot of guys out. His walk
• 1:33:14
  Speaker 2: rates not great this month nineteen, it's ends strike got
• 1:33:18
  Speaker 2: walk ratio on twenty six innings. That's definitely too many
• 1:33:20
  Speaker 2: walks twenty seven hits a lot isn't great either. Overall,
• 1:33:24
  Speaker 2: just not excellent numbers from him. He's allowed more than
• 1:33:27
  Speaker 2: one hit per inning by quite a bit, which is bad.
• 1:33:30
  Speaker 2: Strike got rate is fairly low, and his walk rate's
• 1:33:33
  Speaker 2: a bit too high as well. At some point, I
• 1:33:37
  Speaker 2: think he is going to start pitching a little bit better.
• 1:33:39
  Speaker 2: I think like based on his scouting reports, he should
• 1:33:41
  Speaker 2: be better than this, and he's just struggling early in
• 1:33:44
  Speaker 2: his career. I think the Dodgers have never seen him before,
• 1:33:48
  Speaker 2: so he does have that advantage, or that hasn't really
• 1:33:50
  Speaker 2: helped him much so far. Like he's going up against all,
• 1:33:53
  Speaker 2: like all these lineups he's facing. I've never seen him before,
• 1:33:56
  Speaker 2: and he's still struggling. So that's not great, even though
• 1:33:58
  Speaker 2: generally I would say that an advantage being unfamiliar to
• 1:34:02
  Speaker 2: the opposing hitters, but maybe not here. Roki Sasaki is
• 1:34:05
  Speaker 2: pitching for the Dodgers. His overall numbers are not great
• 1:34:08
  Speaker 2: here four point nine to three ERA one point four
• 1:34:11
  Speaker 2: to whip Home and away. His splits are not really
• 1:34:15
  Speaker 2: that significant. But what I will say about Sasaki, because
• 1:34:19
  Speaker 2: you know, he seems like he's kind of mentally untough whatever.
• 1:34:22
  Speaker 2: He's still a really young guy though, like he came
• 1:34:24
  Speaker 2: over from Japan really early in his career. What I
• 1:34:27
  Speaker 2: will say is he is starting to pitch better, like
• 1:34:30
  Speaker 2: he was having some major issues making the transition being
• 1:34:33
  Speaker 2: a relief pitcher to a starting pitcher. This month, he's
• 1:34:36
  Speaker 2: actually been pretty good. He'said made four starts, twenty three innings,
• 1:34:40
  Speaker 2: pitched nineteen hits, allowed twenty one strikeouts, five walks, and
• 1:34:43
  Speaker 2: he hasn't allowed more than three on runs in any outing.
• 1:34:46
  Speaker 2: And he's gone five or more innings in every outing.
• 1:34:48
  Speaker 2: That's not bad. Although really the only actual good offense
• 1:34:52
  Speaker 2: in there really was Milwaukee, but three of those starts
• 1:34:54
  Speaker 2: are on the road. Saint Louis is not that bad
• 1:34:57
  Speaker 2: of an offense, although they are a pitcher front the
• 1:35:00
  Speaker 2: ballpark and that's where that was. But Sasaki looks like
• 1:35:03
  Speaker 2: he is starting to figure it out, dude, So I
• 1:35:05
  Speaker 2: think I would prefer him like based on the fact
• 1:35:08
  Speaker 2: that his current form looks decent. He's moving in the
• 1:35:11
  Speaker 2: right direction against the Phillies. He actually has good numbers
• 1:35:14
  Speaker 2: in twenty four at bats seven strikeouts, two walks, one
• 1:35:17
  Speaker 2: twenty five average, three seventeen ops. That's good. He's been
• 1:35:21
  Speaker 2: good against the Phillies in the past. So I think
• 1:35:24
  Speaker 2: I'm gonna lean Dodgers in this game in some capacity. Sorry,
• 1:35:28
  Speaker 2: I just closed the tab. Where's this game here? It is?
• 1:35:33
  Speaker 2: Oh shit, it looks like they changed the picture to Lozardo.
• 1:35:36
  Speaker 2: I got to rehandicap this now. Now the money is
• 1:35:39
  Speaker 2: coming in on the Dodgers, fifty two percent of tickets,
• 1:35:41
  Speaker 2: fifty six percent of the cash on the Dodgers. Oither
• 1:35:44
  Speaker 2: it minus won twenty something here, I'd still consider full game,
• 1:35:49
  Speaker 2: probably because I do think the Dodgers there, even though
• 1:35:51
  Speaker 2: their bullpen's a little bit less rested, it's still a
• 1:35:54
  Speaker 2: good bullpen. So I probably would still lean Dodgers full
• 1:35:57
  Speaker 2: game money line here. But we gotta look at Lozardo's
• 1:36:01
  Speaker 2: numbers now, man, because that changes things. I like it less.
• 1:36:05
  Speaker 2: I would prefer it if and I guess Aaron Nola's
• 1:36:09
  Speaker 2: on paternity to leave, so maybe should we try to
• 1:36:11
  Speaker 2: fade the baby again when he comes back. I don't know.
• 1:36:14
  Speaker 2: And in his case, because he's from Louisiana and his
• 1:36:17
  Speaker 2: name is Nola is his is his baby coming out
• 1:36:21
  Speaker 2: of a king cake. That's that's they should. That's what
• 1:36:26
  Speaker 2: they should. His wife should give birth into into a
• 1:36:29
  Speaker 2: king cake. That's how they had the baby. The baby
• 1:36:33
  Speaker 2: can have a soft landing there. I don't know, man,
• 1:36:37
  Speaker 2: all right anyway, Uh, I don't know. Yeah, I don't
• 1:36:40
  Speaker 2: know what's happening here. But yeah, it looks like Painter
• 1:36:42
  Speaker 2: is probably is probably gonna pitch tomorrow, I would guess.
• 1:36:45
  Speaker 2: I don't know, but they're moving Lozardo up. I don't
• 1:36:48
  Speaker 2: even know what rest Lozardo is on. Uh. Lozardo pitched
• 1:36:52
  Speaker 2: on the twenty fifth, so he's on, you know, usually
• 1:36:55
  Speaker 2: pictures because there's usually a day off in there, because
• 1:36:58
  Speaker 2: teams usually have two days off every week. So usually
• 1:37:02
  Speaker 2: a guy who's gonna pitch six days after he last pitched.
• 1:37:05
  Speaker 2: In this case, it's gonna be five, which is interesting.
• 1:37:07
  Speaker 2: But Luzardo pitched well last time out in San Diego.
• 1:37:11
  Speaker 2: He's pitching well this month, with a two point nine
• 1:37:13
  Speaker 2: to six e RA, thirty one strikeouts, eight walks, twenty
• 1:37:17
  Speaker 2: seven hits a lot on twenty seven to third innings.
• 1:37:19
  Speaker 2: He's pitching well right now, dude, and that went back
• 1:37:21
  Speaker 2: into the end of last month two. His overall numbers
• 1:37:24
  Speaker 2: don't look great four point three eighty R and one
• 1:37:27
  Speaker 2: point two eight WHIP. But as I pointed out, he's
• 1:37:29
  Speaker 2: gotten unlucky this season, like a lot of the guys
• 1:37:34
  Speaker 2: that have reached base have scored against him. And he's
• 1:37:36
  Speaker 2: obviously starting to pitch a lot better here, and he's
• 1:37:39
  Speaker 2: also been way worse at home for whatever reason. He's
• 1:37:42
  Speaker 2: on the road here and he's got a one point
• 1:37:44
  Speaker 2: two to one roadyra compared to seven point three one
• 1:37:47
  Speaker 2: at home. I don't know what the deal is, but
• 1:37:51
  Speaker 2: he sets up much better in this game, at least
• 1:37:53
  Speaker 2: in the fact that he's pitching better right now. He's
• 1:37:56
  Speaker 2: going out on the road, so he is. You know,
• 1:37:59
  Speaker 2: I would much rather fade Painter here than Lozardo, So
• 1:38:02
  Speaker 2: you know, I would lean to the Dodgers if Painter
• 1:38:04
  Speaker 2: was pitching, maybe not with Lozardo pitching here. He's got
• 1:38:07
  Speaker 2: well over one strike upper inning, right around one hip
• 1:38:10
  Speaker 2: per inning, and his walk rate is actually pretty low
• 1:38:14
  Speaker 2: against the Dodgers is the big question though. He actually
• 1:38:17
  Speaker 2: has good numbers against them in one hundred and seven
• 1:38:19
  Speaker 2: at bats one sixty eight batting average allowed, five to
• 1:38:22
  Speaker 2: fifty eight ohps, twenty eight to six strikeout walk ratios.
• 1:38:25
  Speaker 2: So that changes things for sure. If it was Painter,
• 1:38:29
  Speaker 2: I would definitely lean Dodgers' money line. But now that
• 1:38:31
  Speaker 2: it's not, I think an under makes a lot more sense.
• 1:38:35
  Speaker 2: Given what we just saw there, I would lean under
• 1:38:38
  Speaker 2: in this game with Lozardo against Asaki, you know, I mean,
• 1:38:42
  Speaker 2: I guess you can. You can make an argument for
• 1:38:44
  Speaker 2: Philadelphia as well. Like Sasaki is probably still less trustworthy
• 1:38:49
  Speaker 2: than the Lozardo is, but I think he's more trustworthy
• 1:38:52
  Speaker 2: than Painter, you know. So this does change things that
• 1:38:56
  Speaker 2: might have me slightly leaning to Philly, but I think
• 1:38:58
  Speaker 2: it changes It would flip me to be on the under,
• 1:39:01
  Speaker 2: I think more than anything else here. It's at eight
• 1:39:03
  Speaker 2: and a half, so I think under makes sense, all right,
• 1:39:07
  Speaker 2: And both bullpens are pretty decent. Like I said, yes,
• 1:39:11
  Speaker 2: I gotta throw some jokes in here, man, I gotta
• 1:39:14
  Speaker 2: do something about that because this is too dry of
• 1:39:16
  Speaker 2: a show, all right. This show's taken way too long again,
• 1:39:21
  Speaker 2: more than an hour and a half just for baseball.
• 1:39:24
  Speaker 2: We gotta talk about WNBA. I'm not gonna have a
• 1:39:26
  Speaker 2: WNBA play here. I think if you're gonna make any
• 1:39:30
  Speaker 2: WNBA play, I prefer this afternoon game to the other two.
• 1:39:33
  Speaker 2: It's Seattle at Toronto. There's some angle here that I
• 1:39:36
  Speaker 2: think we can kind of look at Toronto's a six
• 1:39:39
  Speaker 2: and a half point favorite, which is ridiculous. I mean
• 1:39:41
  Speaker 2: they're an expansion team, or actually they're about six here.
• 1:39:45
  Speaker 2: We don't see the percentages on this, but right away
• 1:39:47
  Speaker 2: that looks crazy to me because I know Seattle's not
• 1:39:50
  Speaker 2: good this year, but Toronto's an expansion team. Dude, Like,
• 1:39:53
  Speaker 2: should they really be favored by that much? Six? And
• 1:39:56
  Speaker 2: these teams are already played in Toronto? And yes, Toronto won
• 1:39:59
  Speaker 2: by thirteen. This was early in the season. But what
• 1:40:02
  Speaker 2: was the line in this game? Yeah, Toronto was three
• 1:40:05
  Speaker 2: and a half. So have we seen enough throughout the
• 1:40:08
  Speaker 2: season that Toronto should a couple of weeks later be
• 1:40:10
  Speaker 2: a six point favorite now against the same team in
• 1:40:13
  Speaker 2: the same venue. I don't really think so. So I
• 1:40:16
  Speaker 2: think the line is probably offering some value on Seattle.
• 1:40:19
  Speaker 2: Now you gotta look at what happened in this game.
• 1:40:22
  Speaker 2: They're like Okay, yeah, Toronto won by thirteen. Was there
• 1:40:26
  Speaker 2: a reason for it? Well, I mean, Toronto hit four
• 1:40:29
  Speaker 2: more threes than Seattle did. They took way more threes.
• 1:40:32
  Speaker 2: Everything was actually kind of balanced in this game, but
• 1:40:35
  Speaker 2: Seattle lost the turnover battle. The rebounds were pretty close.
• 1:40:39
  Speaker 2: Toronto won by a little bit, but if you look
• 1:40:41
  Speaker 2: at the stats here, it looks like it should have
• 1:40:42
  Speaker 2: been a close game. Like all the stats were fairly close.
• 1:40:45
  Speaker 2: So though, Toronto did have eleven more field goal attempts
• 1:40:48
  Speaker 2: in the game, but again a lot of that was
• 1:40:50
  Speaker 2: from Seattle losing the turnover battle. But to me, it
• 1:40:54
  Speaker 2: looks like this game should have been a lot closer
• 1:40:56
  Speaker 2: than it was. Seattle had a bad second half, so
• 1:40:59
  Speaker 2: that all so kind of has me leaning towards Seattle.
• 1:41:02
  Speaker 2: Plus the points here because I think this was a
• 1:41:04
  Speaker 2: misleading thirteen point win. It looks like it should have been.
• 1:41:08
  Speaker 2: Toronto probably deserved to win the game, but it looks
• 1:41:10
  Speaker 2: like it should have been by a lot fewer than
• 1:41:12
  Speaker 2: what they won by. Now, if we look at the spot,
• 1:41:16
  Speaker 2: I think Toronto could be in a letdown maybe a
• 1:41:18
  Speaker 2: little bit. They just won at Chicago. It was only
• 1:41:20
  Speaker 2: a single game road trip, though, but they pulled off
• 1:41:22
  Speaker 2: an upset there, and if you dig into this game,
• 1:41:25
  Speaker 2: Toronto shot out of their minds in this game. Dude.
• 1:41:28
  Speaker 2: Chicago had nine more field goal at times than they
• 1:41:31
  Speaker 2: did in the game, but Toronto hit fifty six percent
• 1:41:33
  Speaker 2: from the field forty six percent from three. That's gonna regress,
• 1:41:38
  Speaker 2: I'm sorry. Even though Toronto did win the rebound battle
• 1:41:41
  Speaker 2: by ten, so they actually did out rebound Chicago. Maybe
• 1:41:44
  Speaker 2: Chicago needs Angel Reese back. No, probably not, but yeah,
• 1:41:49
  Speaker 2: to me, I mean there's gonna I think there's a
• 1:41:51
  Speaker 2: big regression point here though, with Toronto shooting, like I
• 1:41:54
  Speaker 2: don't think they're gonna shoot that well again here. So
• 1:41:57
  Speaker 2: that's another thing that kind of indicates towards Seattle here.
• 1:42:00
  Speaker 2: Seattle just lost at home to Washington, so maybe it's
• 1:42:03
  Speaker 2: a good thing to just go out on the road.
• 1:42:05
  Speaker 2: And the good thing is they're familiar with this venue already,
• 1:42:09
  Speaker 2: because like this expansion team might have an advantage like
• 1:42:12
  Speaker 2: I talked about with Portland the other night. Al though
• 1:42:14
  Speaker 2: that didn't work out fading Portland with Connecticut playing there
• 1:42:17
  Speaker 2: for the second time, but we should have had that
• 1:42:20
  Speaker 2: correct But same thing kind of applies here, right, Like
• 1:42:23
  Speaker 2: Seattle might have struggled a little bit more going to
• 1:42:26
  Speaker 2: Toronto because they were unfamiliar with that venue, right, unfamiliar
• 1:42:29
  Speaker 2: with Like again, Toronto's not only a new team, but
• 1:42:33
  Speaker 2: they're Canadian teams. So these teams are not used to
• 1:42:36
  Speaker 2: going through customs either, you know what I mean. So
• 1:42:39
  Speaker 2: I think that's giving Toronto a little bit of an
• 1:42:41
  Speaker 2: extra home advantage early on here because these teams are
• 1:42:44
  Speaker 2: not used to doing that travel and going through customs
• 1:42:47
  Speaker 2: and whatever. But now that Seattle's done that once, I
• 1:42:49
  Speaker 2: think they're gonna be better off coming into this game.
• 1:42:53
  Speaker 2: So I like Seattle plus the points in this one.
• 1:42:56
  Speaker 2: That's my favorite opinion of these WNBA games. I don't enough,
• 1:43:00
  Speaker 2: but that would be the way I would go if
• 1:43:03
  Speaker 2: I was gonna play any of these games today. Chicago
• 1:43:07
  Speaker 2: is definitely known for shooting. That's why they had to
• 1:43:09
  Speaker 2: get They had to get rid of Angel Reese. Well,
• 1:43:12
  Speaker 2: actually Angel Reese does a lot of shooting. She just
• 1:43:16
  Speaker 2: misses all the shots. That does seem kind of Chicago.
• 1:43:20
  Speaker 2: That seems like she fits in in Chicago. LA At Connecticut,
• 1:43:25
  Speaker 2: this is an ugly game. Connecticut is a bad team, dude,
• 1:43:28
  Speaker 2: and the returning home from the road. And you know,
• 1:43:29
  Speaker 2: I talk about this when a team has been on
• 1:43:31
  Speaker 2: an extended road trip, like Connecticut and they went out
• 1:43:34
  Speaker 2: to the Pacific Coast, They've been on the road for
• 1:43:36
  Speaker 2: like two weeks. That's bad. You return home. You gotta
• 1:43:39
  Speaker 2: get back to home life. It could be a bad
• 1:43:41
  Speaker 2: spot here. Are they gonna get up for LA? I
• 1:43:44
  Speaker 2: don't know, man, I mean, LA has a winning record.
• 1:43:46
  Speaker 2: I mean, if you're a one win Connecticut team, I
• 1:43:48
  Speaker 2: guess you probably don't really overlook anybody. Although they do
• 1:43:51
  Speaker 2: play Atlanta next, and Atlanta is one of the better
• 1:43:53
  Speaker 2: teams in the league, speaking of Angel Reese, Atlanta also
• 1:43:57
  Speaker 2: has a lot of shooting. Anyway, It's a bad spot
• 1:44:02
  Speaker 2: for Connecticut generally, though. I think the return home spot
• 1:44:05
  Speaker 2: is just very hard to overcome in a lot of
• 1:44:07
  Speaker 2: cases in Connecticut. They just played in that that Portland
• 1:44:10
  Speaker 2: game win was that like two days ago, whatever, it
• 1:44:13
  Speaker 2: was three days ago, So they don't have that much
• 1:44:16
  Speaker 2: time here either. LA is also having to travel though,
• 1:44:20
  Speaker 2: although actually no, sorry, they're already on the East Coast.
• 1:44:22
  Speaker 2: My mistake. LA has a better travel spot here because
• 1:44:25
  Speaker 2: they're already they played well they played yesterday, though they're
• 1:44:28
  Speaker 2: on a back to back, but they're already in the
• 1:44:30
  Speaker 2: Eastern time zone. They just won at Washington yesterday, which
• 1:44:35
  Speaker 2: you know, I wasn't so sure about that. I think
• 1:44:37
  Speaker 2: I did lean to Washington yesterday, but I thought both
• 1:44:39
  Speaker 2: teams are in bad spots. LA had just gotten the
• 1:44:42
  Speaker 2: revenge against Vegas, which was a pretty big win, but
• 1:44:45
  Speaker 2: they beat Washington. Now they're on a back to back,
• 1:44:48
  Speaker 2: but I don't think that's that bad because they had
• 1:44:50
  Speaker 2: five days off prior to yesterday's game, although they had
• 1:44:53
  Speaker 2: to travel, but back to backs in the WNBA, I
• 1:44:57
  Speaker 2: think they're pretty rare, but they're not really that bad
• 1:45:00
  Speaker 2: because again, usually the team's gonna have a lot of
• 1:45:02
  Speaker 2: rest before that first game, so it's not like the
• 1:45:04
  Speaker 2: NBA where oh my god, this team's playing five games
• 1:45:07
  Speaker 2: in seven days now or whatever. Nope, it doesn't really happen.
• 1:45:11
  Speaker 2: So I'm not as concerned by that here. So I
• 1:45:14
  Speaker 2: think I'm gonna lean LA here. I think it sets
• 1:45:17
  Speaker 2: up a little bit better from than the travels spot does.
• 1:45:19
  Speaker 2: But yeah, they did play yesterday. It's a little bit
• 1:45:21
  Speaker 2: of a concern. I'd probably lay it with LA. They
• 1:45:24
  Speaker 2: are a favorite here, but they've already dropped from six
• 1:45:27
  Speaker 2: to three and a half though, so the initial money
• 1:45:29
  Speaker 2: came in pounding Connecticut and driving that line way down.
• 1:45:33
  Speaker 2: It could be a false move though. It's kind of
• 1:45:35
  Speaker 2: hard to read some of these markets, especially WNBA, because
• 1:45:39
  Speaker 2: so few people are betting the end of the WNBA
• 1:45:41
  Speaker 2: that only professionals bet the WNBA. No recreational people bet
• 1:45:46
  Speaker 2: the WNBA basically, so it's all professional money. But then
• 1:45:49
  Speaker 2: what you have to figure out is the professionals can
• 1:45:52
  Speaker 2: move the line, and they can move the line a
• 1:45:54
  Speaker 2: lot in the WNBA because there's no public action to
• 1:45:57
  Speaker 2: balance it out. But was that a fake move? You
• 1:46:01
  Speaker 2: know what I mean? Like the the professionals know they
• 1:46:03
  Speaker 2: can move the line, so might they say, hey, fuck it,
• 1:46:05
  Speaker 2: I'm gonna come in and nail this line down, and
• 1:46:08
  Speaker 2: then I'm gonna actually come in with my actual play
• 1:46:10
  Speaker 2: on laying the points at a cheaper price. They do
• 1:46:13
  Speaker 2: that sometimes with the setups you have to kind of
• 1:46:15
  Speaker 2: figure out. You have to try to figure out was
• 1:46:17
  Speaker 2: that a real move or not. But I kind of
• 1:46:19
  Speaker 2: just go with my handicap as well, so I would
• 1:46:22
  Speaker 2: lean towards laying it with LA though especially at that
• 1:46:25
  Speaker 2: lower number there. Now that you get, you get better
• 1:46:28
  Speaker 2: value on it. Now, at least Angel Reese, Angel Reese,
• 1:46:35
  Speaker 2: that's worse of a name than Precious. You know, at
• 1:46:39
  Speaker 2: least Precious was kind of a childlike so it kind
• 1:46:42
  Speaker 2: of makes sense. Angel Reese is definitely not an angel.
• 1:46:47
  Speaker 2: She's not good looking, and I actually is she Christian?
• 1:46:52
  Speaker 2: I don't know. Maybe she claims to be, but other
• 1:46:55
  Speaker 2: than that, she probably isn't. Indiana at Portland is the
• 1:46:58
  Speaker 2: last game. Indian is a massive favorite in this game.
• 1:47:01
  Speaker 2: And you know, I said last night, because Portland played
• 1:47:04
  Speaker 2: last night. They have a good looking record, they're above
• 1:47:06
  Speaker 2: five hundred. So people might look at this and say,
• 1:47:09
  Speaker 2: how is this Portland team was above five hundred getting
• 1:47:12
  Speaker 2: double digit points from a team it doesn't even have
• 1:47:14
  Speaker 2: a very good record, right, Like the public, if they're
• 1:47:17
  Speaker 2: gonna play this is probably gonna look at this and
• 1:47:19
  Speaker 2: just take the points because they're not gonna want to
• 1:47:21
  Speaker 2: lay points like that. But I mentioned that last night.
• 1:47:24
  Speaker 2: Portland played last night and Atlanta was laying nine and
• 1:47:26
  Speaker 2: a half, and I said, I thought that Atlanta was
• 1:47:29
  Speaker 2: gonna cover that, and they did. They're won by twenty.
• 1:47:33
  Speaker 2: So this Portland team is not as good as their
• 1:47:35
  Speaker 2: record looks. I know they beat the Liberty a couple
• 1:47:38
  Speaker 2: of times, but other than that, there's not a whole
• 1:47:40
  Speaker 2: lot going on here. Now. They did play Indiana on
• 1:47:43
  Speaker 2: the road and they lost by seventeen in that game,
• 1:47:46
  Speaker 2: but I don't know if it's that much of a
• 1:47:47
  Speaker 2: takeaway here. Indiana is just the better team. Uh. The
• 1:47:50
  Speaker 2: one big outlier was that Portland shot horribly from threes,
• 1:47:54
  Speaker 2: so there is that they only hit three threes that
• 1:47:57
  Speaker 2: in Indiana got to the line way more. So maybe
• 1:48:01
  Speaker 2: there's some room for Portland to shoot better from three.
• 1:48:04
  Speaker 2: But Indiana was the better team in the game anyway.
• 1:48:07
  Speaker 2: They out rebounded, then they led the whole way. They
• 1:48:10
  Speaker 2: were a ten and a half point favorite and covered
• 1:48:13
  Speaker 2: that by a bed. But even if you take out
• 1:48:16
  Speaker 2: those disparities, they still want They still could have won
• 1:48:18
  Speaker 2: that game by right around what the spread was, so
• 1:48:21
  Speaker 2: I'm not gonna put much weight into that now. What
• 1:48:23
  Speaker 2: I will say though, is that if Indiana was a
• 1:48:25
  Speaker 2: ten and a half point favorite at home, being a
• 1:48:27
  Speaker 2: ten and a half point favorite on the road does
• 1:48:29
  Speaker 2: actually look too big, given that that was the same
• 1:48:33
  Speaker 2: line that they were favored by at home against Portland.
• 1:48:36
  Speaker 2: That you know, that line does seem high for that reason.
• 1:48:40
  Speaker 2: Portland did play last night, so they're on a back
• 1:48:43
  Speaker 2: to back. But you know what, I just said that
• 1:48:46
  Speaker 2: they did rest prior to that though, although actually not
• 1:48:49
  Speaker 2: as much though actually actually I take that back. Actually
• 1:48:52
  Speaker 2: they played on the twenty third, twenty fifth, and twenty seventh,
• 1:48:55
  Speaker 2: so they have actually played a decent amount of games recently,
• 1:48:58
  Speaker 2: so I take that back. So they're actually that rested.
• 1:49:02
  Speaker 2: But they got blown out at home yesterday. You know,
• 1:49:06
  Speaker 2: they might be in a bounced back spot. Here in Indiana,
• 1:49:10
  Speaker 2: I believe is coming in off a big Indiana just
• 1:49:12
  Speaker 2: played against Golden State the other day and they lost
• 1:49:15
  Speaker 2: a close game against a Golden State team that is
• 1:49:18
  Speaker 2: solid this year. Golden State was a two and a
• 1:49:20
  Speaker 2: half point favorite there, and you can see the odds
• 1:49:22
  Speaker 2: makers really respect Indiana and think they're better than Atlanta.
• 1:49:25
  Speaker 2: So the odds makers also are telling you Golden State's
• 1:49:29
  Speaker 2: a good team. And that was also a zigzag for
• 1:49:32
  Speaker 2: Golden State because Indiana had just beaten them in Indiana
• 1:49:34
  Speaker 2: the game before that. It was a big game though,
• 1:49:38
  Speaker 2: so Indiana. That was two days ago. In Indiana's coming
• 1:49:40
  Speaker 2: off that. But Indiana is the more rested team because
• 1:49:42
  Speaker 2: they hadn't played for six days prior to that, So
• 1:49:45
  Speaker 2: you have to kind of weigh all of that, and
• 1:49:47
  Speaker 2: you know, you have to take all that into consideration,
• 1:49:50
  Speaker 2: and I guess Indiana being more rested here and the
• 1:49:53
  Speaker 2: fact that Portland's on a back to back that is
• 1:49:56
  Speaker 2: part of the reason why Indiana's favored by the same
• 1:49:58
  Speaker 2: amount that they were in that other game. This game
• 1:50:02
  Speaker 2: has to be kind of all over the place. Like,
• 1:50:04
  Speaker 2: to me, it seems like the line's a little bit
• 1:50:05
  Speaker 2: too high. I would generally want to look for Portland
• 1:50:08
  Speaker 2: to bounce back after a bad home performance in Indiana
• 1:50:11
  Speaker 2: coming off a bigger game, but Portland is obviously the
• 1:50:14
  Speaker 2: way less rested team, so you have to kind of
• 1:50:16
  Speaker 2: figure all of that in. And yeah, the public is
• 1:50:19
  Speaker 2: most likely if they look at this game, they're gonna
• 1:50:20
  Speaker 2: think this line is way too high to lay. So, like,
• 1:50:23
  Speaker 2: what do we do with this game? I mean, obviously
• 1:50:25
  Speaker 2: I'm staying away from it, but yeah, I don't even know. Man,
• 1:50:28
  Speaker 2: My initial instinct was laying the points made more sense here.
• 1:50:32
  Speaker 2: Maybe that is still the way to go, given that
• 1:50:35
  Speaker 2: the market seems to kind of indicate on it. And
• 1:50:38
  Speaker 2: you know, indicate that way by just the fact that
• 1:50:40
  Speaker 2: they put the line out this high and the money
• 1:50:42
  Speaker 2: is seeming to come in that way a little bit,
• 1:50:45
  Speaker 2: and being on top of the rest advantage here, that
• 1:50:49
  Speaker 2: might be enough. I don't know, So I don't know.
• 1:50:52
  Speaker 2: I guess I would lean towards laying it, but I
• 1:50:54
  Speaker 2: don't like that game much at all. I could see
• 1:50:56
  Speaker 2: your arguments for both sides. We have no hockey today.
• 1:50:59
  Speaker 2: The Stanley Finals they think start on Tuesdays. That leads
• 1:51:02
  Speaker 2: us to the best bet in NBA here. I mean,
• 1:51:10
  Speaker 2: you know what we're doing with this one, man, We're
• 1:51:11
  Speaker 2: gonna zig zat. We're gonna lay the points with Oklahoma
• 1:51:14
  Speaker 2: City minus three and a half. This is the cheapest
• 1:51:17
  Speaker 2: price the avout on Oklahoma City at home in the
• 1:51:20
  Speaker 2: entire playoffs. They were about four and a half in
• 1:51:23
  Speaker 2: the last game at home, and they won that game
• 1:51:25
  Speaker 2: by twenty something. This is on NBC and Peacock. Oklahoma City. Yeah,
• 1:51:30
  Speaker 2: I know they lost the first game in the series
• 1:51:33
  Speaker 2: at home, but they were coming off a long layoff
• 1:51:35
  Speaker 2: after sweeping LA, so I think momentum was kind of
• 1:51:39
  Speaker 2: stalled for them. Since then, they've won all the other
• 1:51:42
  Speaker 2: home games in the series, they've won by nine, and
• 1:51:45
  Speaker 2: they almost won that first game it went into double
• 1:51:48
  Speaker 2: overtime even though they were in a bad spot. Game
• 1:51:50
  Speaker 2: two they won by nine, and Game five they won
• 1:51:52
  Speaker 2: by oh sorry it was by thirteen, not by twenty
• 1:51:55
  Speaker 2: something thirteen. But obviously they've won by more than this,
• 1:51:58
  Speaker 2: by quite a bit both those games. So Oklahoma City,
• 1:52:02
  Speaker 2: they've been way better at home. Of course they've won
• 1:52:04
  Speaker 2: all the other home games because they swept the other series.
• 1:52:07
  Speaker 2: Oklahoma City last couple of seasons, they've been very good
• 1:52:10
  Speaker 2: at home. They're very good off of a loss as well.
• 1:52:13
  Speaker 2: In the postseasons of our off of the loss were
• 1:52:16
  Speaker 2: those two games I just mentioned, both games at home.
• 1:52:20
  Speaker 2: Both those games they won by nine and by thirteen.
• 1:52:22
  Speaker 2: Like I just said, so they've been good off a
• 1:52:24
  Speaker 2: loss as well. Same thing was the case last season.
• 1:52:27
  Speaker 2: They played well off of a loss in the playoffs.
• 1:52:31
  Speaker 2: And I think that we do have some regression points
• 1:52:35
  Speaker 2: here to look at. I mean, they got embarrassed in
• 1:52:37
  Speaker 2: this game at San Antonio in Game six dudent. Oklahoma
• 1:52:41
  Speaker 2: City over the last couple of seasons has actually been
• 1:52:44
  Speaker 2: bad in game six road games, so that is something
• 1:52:47
  Speaker 2: to consider here. Back at home in Game seven, they've
• 1:52:50
  Speaker 2: been better, but look at what happened in this game.
• 1:52:52
  Speaker 2: OKC had six more field goal attempts in the game,
• 1:52:57
  Speaker 2: and they shot thirty seven percent compared to forty seven
• 1:53:00
  Speaker 2: percent for san Antonio. So I think there is gonna
• 1:53:02
  Speaker 2: be some regression here. Maybe san Antonio will shoot a
• 1:53:05
  Speaker 2: little bit more poorly here, but Oklahoma City should shoot
• 1:53:08
  Speaker 2: better than this. I know both defenses are good here.
• 1:53:11
  Speaker 2: San Antonio's is definitely good, but there are there is
• 1:53:15
  Speaker 2: definitely some room for Oklahoma City to shoot better here.
• 1:53:17
  Speaker 2: They also only shot twenty five percent from three point
• 1:53:20
  Speaker 2: range compared to thirty seven percent for san Antonio, so
• 1:53:23
  Speaker 2: I think there might be some regression back to some
• 1:53:25
  Speaker 2: sort of mean there as well. San Antonio made five
• 1:53:28
  Speaker 2: more threes, so that was plus fifteen right there, and
• 1:53:32
  Speaker 2: they won the game by well, they won by twenty seven,
• 1:53:35
  Speaker 2: which is pretty embarrassing, but fifteen the points are right there.
• 1:53:38
  Speaker 2: Oh yeah, and another ten came from the free throw line,
• 1:53:41
  Speaker 2: because san Antonio also went to the free throw line
• 1:53:44
  Speaker 2: thirteen times more and hit ten more free throws. So
• 1:53:47
  Speaker 2: that was basically the whole game, right there. Was san
• 1:53:50
  Speaker 2: Antonio getting more points from three point range and getting
• 1:53:52
  Speaker 2: more points from the free throw line. And I think
• 1:53:55
  Speaker 2: those things could regress here. Man, Usually these things tend
• 1:53:58
  Speaker 2: to even out in the playoffs. Oklahoma City only got
• 1:54:01
  Speaker 2: to the line twelve times in that game. That is
• 1:54:03
  Speaker 2: highly unlikely that happens again. And yes, I know san
• 1:54:06
  Speaker 2: Antonio did win the rebound battle by ten, but Oklahoma
• 1:54:10
  Speaker 2: City has outside of getting absolutely crushed on the boards
• 1:54:14
  Speaker 2: in Game one, which was a game by the way,
• 1:54:16
  Speaker 2: that even though san Antonio won the rebound battle in
• 1:54:19
  Speaker 2: game won by like thirty rebounds or something, okay See
• 1:54:22
  Speaker 2: still could have won that game. So you know that
• 1:54:26
  Speaker 2: tells you something at least. And yeah, I just think
• 1:54:29
  Speaker 2: that okay Se is gonna have the adjustments to make here,
• 1:54:31
  Speaker 2: which is usually the case when you have a team
• 1:54:33
  Speaker 2: that blows you out. Usually if you blew that team out,
• 1:54:36
  Speaker 2: you don't have anything to fix, you know what I mean,
• 1:54:38
  Speaker 2: Whereas the other team usually shows up and makes the adjustments.
• 1:54:43
  Speaker 2: We've seen Oklahoma City do that multiple times. This is
• 1:54:47
  Speaker 2: a game seven. It's like a super Bowl. Oklahoma City
• 1:54:50
  Speaker 2: has been here, They've done it before, they had to
• 1:54:52
  Speaker 2: do it in the finals last year. They have more
• 1:54:56
  Speaker 2: experience here you know, San Antonio is still a young team.
• 1:54:59
  Speaker 2: San Antonio is not played in a Game seven before
• 1:55:03
  Speaker 2: and certainly not in a conference finals either, so pressure
• 1:55:07
  Speaker 2: time on the road. I think the you know, the
• 1:55:10
  Speaker 2: experience edge has to go to Oklahoma City here. I
• 1:55:13
  Speaker 2: think that's big as well. The historical trends support the
• 1:55:17
  Speaker 2: home team in Game seven winning at least winning outright,
• 1:55:21
  Speaker 2: and I think covering the spread most of the time too.
• 1:55:24
  Speaker 2: So the home team in Game seven usually is a
• 1:55:26
  Speaker 2: good local, though more recently it's been less good, at
• 1:55:29
  Speaker 2: least against the spread. But this spread is not that high, dude.
• 1:55:33
  Speaker 2: Because I considered multiple things, I was like, well, am
• 1:55:35
  Speaker 2: I gonna go with Oklahoma City over a team total
• 1:55:37
  Speaker 2: again here? I decided not to do that because Game
• 1:55:40
  Speaker 2: sevens tend to be low scoring, you know what I mean.
• 1:55:43
  Speaker 2: Because it's Game seven usually you get a lot of
• 1:55:45
  Speaker 2: focus on deepfense, intense defense. These two teams are both
• 1:55:49
  Speaker 2: like in the top several defenses in all of the NBA,
• 1:55:53
  Speaker 2: although the Knicks are actually up there as well on
• 1:55:55
  Speaker 2: the other side there, so we're gonna have two good
• 1:55:59
  Speaker 2: defenses in the five finals. Two But yeah, so I
• 1:56:02
  Speaker 2: think it's gonna be a defensive game. Uh, so you
• 1:56:05
  Speaker 2: know that. Just to talk about the total real quick,
• 1:56:07
  Speaker 2: I guess if I go back to this play here,
• 1:56:10
  Speaker 2: I think you know it's like the other Game sevens. Though, yes,
• 1:56:15
  Speaker 2: there are a ton of trends towards Game seven's being
• 1:56:17
  Speaker 2: low scoring because teams don't want to screw up, they
• 1:56:19
  Speaker 2: play close to the vest, they play intense, deepense, even
• 1:56:22
  Speaker 2: if they're tired. But the odds makers know this, and
• 1:56:26
  Speaker 2: the lowest total I think in the series of var
• 1:56:29
  Speaker 2: in the games in Oklahoma City has been two nineteen
• 1:56:32
  Speaker 2: and a half and now we're looking at two twelve
• 1:56:34
  Speaker 2: and a half. So the odds makers know this. They've
• 1:56:37
  Speaker 2: over adjusted the total, in my opinion, too low. So
• 1:56:39
  Speaker 2: I think there's just no value left in playing the under,
• 1:56:43
  Speaker 2: although I did hear some professional betters pointing out that
• 1:56:45
  Speaker 2: they didn't really adjust the first half total that much lower.
• 1:56:49
  Speaker 2: So if you want to go under here, a first
• 1:56:51
  Speaker 2: half under makes some sense. And it makes even more
• 1:56:55
  Speaker 2: sense because I think if the if there's gonna be
• 1:56:57
  Speaker 2: scoring happening, it might have been late in the game.
• 1:56:59
  Speaker 2: If the game is close, you get fouling whatever, So
• 1:57:02
  Speaker 2: under in the first half does make some sense I
• 1:57:05
  Speaker 2: think I lean over full game though if eighty two
• 1:57:07
  Speaker 2: percent of tickets eighty four percent of the cash on
• 1:57:09
  Speaker 2: the over, over, by the way, is correlated to Oklahoma
• 1:57:12
  Speaker 2: City here in this series, I believe every Oklahoma City
• 1:57:16
  Speaker 2: win has gone over the total and every San Antonio
• 1:57:20
  Speaker 2: win has gone under the total except for Game one,
• 1:57:23
  Speaker 2: but that game was under in regulation and only got
• 1:57:26
  Speaker 2: over in second overtime in double overtime, So there have
• 1:57:30
  Speaker 2: been strong it's been a strong correlation here in this
• 1:57:33
  Speaker 2: series with San Antonio on the under, Oklahoma City and
• 1:57:36
  Speaker 2: the over. So if you like Oklahoma City, that's another
• 1:57:39
  Speaker 2: reason that you kinda would be leaning towards an over here.
• 1:57:43
  Speaker 2: That plus the overreaction is real, dude. We've seen four
• 1:57:47
  Speaker 2: game seven so far in the playoffs. Three of them
• 1:57:50
  Speaker 2: are in the first round, though one of them was
• 1:57:52
  Speaker 2: in the second round. All four of those games went
• 1:57:54
  Speaker 2: over the total, even though again there is a tendency
• 1:57:57
  Speaker 2: for those games to be lower scoring. It was because
• 1:57:59
  Speaker 2: the oddsmakers no this now and they've adjusted to such
• 1:58:02
  Speaker 2: a degree that they've over adjusted it. And every one
• 1:58:05
  Speaker 2: of those games went over. In the first round, it
• 1:58:08
  Speaker 2: was Orlando and Detroit went over Cleveland Toronto went over,
• 1:58:12
  Speaker 2: Celtics seventy six ers went over, and then in the
• 1:58:15
  Speaker 2: second round it was Cleveland Detroit right that went over
• 1:58:19
  Speaker 2: as well. So for those reasons, yes, I would lean
• 1:58:23
  Speaker 2: over full game here, even though under first half I
• 1:58:27
  Speaker 2: could see an argument for it. But we're concentrating on
• 1:58:30
  Speaker 2: the side here. The money is coming in on Oksee, dude,
• 1:58:33
  Speaker 2: we got fifty six percent of tickets on San Antonio.
• 1:58:36
  Speaker 2: The public loves Wemby, they love San Antonio. You know,
• 1:58:41
  Speaker 2: they're the new kind of flashier team. But Oklahoma City
• 1:58:43
  Speaker 2: they're the experienced team. They have more depth than they
• 1:58:46
  Speaker 2: get the job done. And I think late into the series,
• 1:58:49
  Speaker 2: like this game seven, especially the depth matters, dude. And
• 1:58:51
  Speaker 2: I know Oklahoma City is without Jalen Williams. That's a
• 1:58:55
  Speaker 2: big loss. I know he's not coming back here. And
• 1:58:58
  Speaker 2: aj Mitchell also got lost in the series, so that
• 1:59:01
  Speaker 2: means McCain is gonna have to step his ass up
• 1:59:03
  Speaker 2: again here. But even without those guys, Oklahoma City still
• 1:59:06
  Speaker 2: is running like a nine man rotation out there. Man.
• 1:59:09
  Speaker 2: They're a very very deep team. And again because of that,
• 1:59:12
  Speaker 2: because San Antonio heavily relies on their top like four
• 1:59:15
  Speaker 2: or five guys getting to a game seven like this,
• 1:59:18
  Speaker 2: that's going to tire san Antonio out more than it
• 1:59:20
  Speaker 2: tires Okasee out because san Antonio's best players have played
• 1:59:24
  Speaker 2: more minutes throughout this series, and that accumulates, you know
• 1:59:26
  Speaker 2: what I mean. So that's another reason to like. Okay,
• 1:59:29
  Speaker 2: see here, fifty six percent of tickets on san Antonio
• 1:59:32
  Speaker 2: sixty seven percent of the cash on the thunder, So
• 1:59:35
  Speaker 2: the money is hitting the thunder here it's a three
• 1:59:38
  Speaker 2: and a half. You can find it at reduced juice
• 1:59:40
  Speaker 2: if you want to go money line. I would not
• 1:59:42
  Speaker 2: disagree with that. Either you can get the price down
• 1:59:44
  Speaker 2: even fur like, you can get the price down or
• 1:59:47
  Speaker 2: not have to lay an amount of points I should
• 1:59:49
  Speaker 2: say on Okay, see, if you want to go money line,
• 1:59:53
  Speaker 2: I think you can find it at around minus one
• 1:59:55
  Speaker 2: fifty something out there, So that's not a horrible option
• 1:59:59
  Speaker 2: to go money line Oklahoma City as well, or instead
• 2:00:03
  Speaker 2: of laying the points, if you wanted to do it
• 2:00:05
  Speaker 2: that way. But I think laying the points makes sense
• 2:00:08
  Speaker 2: because you know, I mean, the you get you have
• 2:00:10
  Speaker 2: to pay less of a price to make the bet,
• 2:00:12
  Speaker 2: and every game that Oklahoma City is won they've covered it,
• 2:00:15
  Speaker 2: so you know what I mean. It's not a huge spread.
• 2:00:18
  Speaker 2: And like I said, Okahoma City was like six and
• 2:00:20
  Speaker 2: a half. In games one and two they were minus
• 2:00:23
  Speaker 2: six and a half. Then there were minus four and
• 2:00:25
  Speaker 2: a half I think when it went off in game five,
• 2:00:28
  Speaker 2: which they covered pretty easily. Now in game seven they're
• 2:00:31
  Speaker 2: down to three and a half. Well why like just
• 2:00:34
  Speaker 2: because the injuries. But those guys didn't play in game five,
• 2:00:37
  Speaker 2: either Williams and Mitchell, or I think one of them might. Actually,
• 2:00:40
  Speaker 2: I think I think Williams tried to come back in
• 2:00:44
  Speaker 2: game five, came off the bench or something and only
• 2:00:46
  Speaker 2: played like ten minutes something like that, so effectively they
• 2:00:50
  Speaker 2: both didn't play in that game. So I don't know.
• 2:00:52
  Speaker 2: It's it's strange to me, but yeah, I like Oklahoma
• 2:00:57
  Speaker 2: City here man for all those reasons. I think it
• 2:01:00
  Speaker 2: sets up well. It's the zig zag spot. The regression
• 2:01:03
  Speaker 2: seems to indicate you should get you know, less of
• 2:01:06
  Speaker 2: a free throw disparity, less of a shooting disparity, all
• 2:01:09
  Speaker 2: in the direction of San Antonio here. Uh, the historical
• 2:01:12
  Speaker 2: trends favor of the home team. I think there's value
• 2:01:15
  Speaker 2: on this number based on the other numbers during the series,
• 2:01:18
  Speaker 2: and yeah, I think that that's about it. And the
• 2:01:22
  Speaker 2: experience I think is a huge factor for OKC. So
• 2:01:25
  Speaker 2: we're gonna do it. Oklahoma Citty minus three and a
• 2:01:28
  Speaker 2: half is my play there? Where zig zagging? You don't
• 2:01:34
  Speaker 2: like Wemby. I'm just annoyed by all the hype. Basically,
• 2:01:38
  Speaker 2: all right, that's gonna do it two hours? Yeah, dude, Yeah,
• 2:01:43
  Speaker 2: it's it's tough to do two hours every day, man,
• 2:01:46
  Speaker 2: But let's get some wins. Hopefully we got Oh shit,
• 2:01:49
  Speaker 2: I forgot to put my banner up. How could I
• 2:01:51
  Speaker 2: forget all show? The banner's been off? But we only
• 2:01:53
  Speaker 2: went one on one yesterday, but still one O two
• 2:01:57
  Speaker 2: forty six and five run last fety six days is
• 2:02:00
  Speaker 2: still pretty strong, really strong. But I'm hoping we can
• 2:02:04
  Speaker 2: get back on a winning side here at least, let's
• 2:02:06
  Speaker 2: at least try to go two and one. Here. We
• 2:02:10
  Speaker 2: have Toronto first five innings money line in baseball, that's
• 2:02:13
  Speaker 2: the Blue Jays. We have first five under Anaheim Tampa
• 2:02:17
  Speaker 2: Bay in baseball, and then we're laying the points with
• 2:02:20
  Speaker 2: the thunder in Game seven. That's gonna do it. Learn
• 2:02:24
  Speaker 2: a tone on Twitter, Learn a tone on Instagram, like,
• 2:02:27
  Speaker 2: subscribe here to the YouTube channel. Man, let's boost this up.
• 2:02:31
  Speaker 2: We're getting a slow trickle more. Charles pointed it out,
• 2:02:35
  Speaker 2: we're getting close to let's get to five hundred, man,
• 2:02:37
  Speaker 2: start getting monetization. Let's hit some milestones. We're on audio Apple, Spotify.
• 2:02:42
  Speaker 2: The audio numbers have been doing all right. They're chugging
• 2:02:46
  Speaker 2: along on Spreaker as well. Covered in you because my
• 2:02:50
  Speaker 2: yuke channel on YouTube. You can check that out Patreon,
• 2:02:54
  Speaker 2: dot Conversation, learn a Toe if you want to support
• 2:02:55
  Speaker 2: me that way. I know I have to get some
• 2:02:57
  Speaker 2: of the yuke request on. My voice is definitely not
• 2:02:59
  Speaker 2: a to it right now, though, and some of it
• 2:03:01
  Speaker 2: is because of talking on this show. Dude. I don't
• 2:03:04
  Speaker 2: know how to like lower my voice more. I don't know.
• 2:03:06
  Speaker 2: I need like a better audio set up behind me,
• 2:03:09
  Speaker 2: a room that's less echo or something, and then I
• 2:03:11
  Speaker 2: should just like, I don't know how I can do it.
• 2:03:14
  Speaker 2: How can I just sit here and relax and just
• 2:03:16
  Speaker 2: kind of talk like this, you know what I mean?
• 2:03:18
  Speaker 2: I don't know how I can do it, but I
• 2:03:20
  Speaker 2: gotta try to do it. Loser casts every Tuesday night
• 2:03:24
  Speaker 2: and The Giants g Spot podcast we'll be back at
• 2:03:29
  Speaker 2: some point. I know I keep saying that, but yeah,
• 2:03:31
  Speaker 2: and then next week we'll I'll do something with the
• 2:03:33
  Speaker 2: Belmont steaks, even though my horse picks have been awful.
• 2:03:38
  Speaker 2: But the Belmont is gonna have a lot of horses
• 2:03:40
  Speaker 2: that ran in the Kentucky Derby that skip the Preakness
• 2:03:43
  Speaker 2: that are in the Belmont. So you can kind of
• 2:03:45
  Speaker 2: handicap you can kind of zigzag a little bit there
• 2:03:48
  Speaker 2: and go against like you know, or not jump on
• 2:03:51
  Speaker 2: horses that maybe look too good, better than they were
• 2:03:55
  Speaker 2: in the derby, and go with horses that were kind
• 2:03:57
  Speaker 2: of sneakily under the radar good in the Derby that
• 2:04:01
  Speaker 2: nobody really notices because they didn't finish that well, that's
• 2:04:04
  Speaker 2: kind of what you want to do, I think in
• 2:04:05
  Speaker 2: the Belmont. So that's what we're gonna look at. That's
• 2:04:09
  Speaker 2: gonna do it. I appreciate it, everybody. Thanks for hanging
• 2:04:13
  Speaker 2: out peace. But don't you go quiet.
• 2:04:18
  Speaker 1: Don't you fade from the floor, your name, steal me
• 2:04:21
  Speaker 1: something to somebody for show.
• 2:04:24
  Speaker 2: Put the glass down, baby, look at me.
• 2:04:28
  Speaker 1: No hold on, hold on nothing.
• 2:04:37
  Speaker 2: No.
• 2:04:40
  Speaker 1: Hold on, hold on. Let me pull that bites hot,
• 2:04:52
  Speaker 1: but it don't get the crown. Hold on hold on
• 2:05:00
  Speaker 1: an stay with me now