Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 171 - 11/26/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

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Episode 171 - 11/26/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

0:18
Hello, and welcome to episode 171 of the All Systems Go Sports
0:25
Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
0:27
I'm your host Josh Applebaum. What's going on everyone?
0:35
Happy Tuesday, the work week rolls on.
0:38
The holiday week continues now just a couple days away from
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Thanksgiving. So everyone is excited.
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You know what, it's kind of depends.
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Sometimes you love seeing your family, sometimes they annoy
0:48
you. But either way, hopefully it's a
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it's a holiday that we are all looking forward to.
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And even if you don't love hanging with the fam, you know,
0:55
hopefully be able to, I don't know, find your, your uncle Jack
0:58
who will have a couple drinks with you and watch some football
1:00
with you on on on Thursday. So holiday week continues guys.
1:04
We got a lot to get to on today's pod.
1:06
We have a lot of interesting games tonight.
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It's going to be all college. I got a 5 pack for you,
1:11
including two plays in action. I got to play on a dog.
1:15
I got to play on a favorite for a couple games here tonight in
1:18
college football and then a huge college basketball slate.
1:22
I got 3 bets overall. They are all money lines. 1 is a
1:26
low obscure bet Game, 1 is a bigger game, and the other one
1:30
is Duke and Kansas. And this is the biggest game of
1:34
the night and it's got a very interesting angle to take
1:37
advantage of. It might not be the angle that
1:39
you're initially thinking about. So I got to play on Duke,
1:41
Kansas, two other bets here, three overall in college
1:44
basketball and two in college football.
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So as always, guys, 5 pack. Let's see if we can scratch and
1:50
claw and get our way to three wins.
1:52
You got a winning night. Hopefully.
1:54
I am then going to update you on some upcoming games here in
1:57
college football. I was looking at the slate.
1:59
It's some interesting slate in terms of the timing.
2:02
Like there's a lot of games on Friday, the day after
2:04
Thanksgiving, then a big Saturday.
2:06
There are two games on Friday that caught my eye, really sharp
2:08
line moves that I want to get behind now and hopefully get a
2:11
good number on. And then also remember we
2:13
mentioned Green Bay Miami that under for Thanksgiving Day.
2:17
Well, hopefully you play the under 47 1/2.
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Some shops are down to 47 or 46 1/2.
2:22
I did see there's one book still hanging under 47 1/2 with that
2:26
Green Bay Miami game that is FanDuel under 47 1/2 at -115.
2:31
But if you like that under, remember it is a big weather
2:34
play. It's going to be windy, it's
2:35
going to be cold. There's a good bet split it open
2:37
as high as 48 1/2. It's falling.
2:40
And we do have that great trend on, I think what was it on
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Sunday night or on Thursday night?
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The night game for Thanksgiving? I believe the under is, I want
2:47
to say 11 and 6. I wrote it down on my notebook,
2:50
but it's been a really good angle historically.
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Yeah. Thanksgiving night unders 11:00
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and 6:00. So last call, 22 trains leaving
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the station under 47 1/2, Miami and Green Bay.
3:00
Now looking back to our last night, guys, bit of a
3:02
frustrating night. 2 and 3 - 1.5 units.
3:06
Had a good hit on Joshua Palmer with the receiving prop there.
3:10
I'm going to football over 35 1/2.
3:13
You had a couple of catches. You had I think 3 catches
3:15
overall. Got to 38.
3:17
Remember, rhythm predicted 47. So rhythm helped us cash the
3:20
Palmer over. We got Abilene Christian coming
3:23
through on the money line in college hoops, but that was all
3:25
we got. McNeese State came up short
3:28
unfortunately against Liberty. The Chargers plus 3 sharp his
3:31
attack, but the public got the last laugh on that one as
3:35
Chargers look good early 10 nothing and then just Lamar
3:38
Jackson was too much. Chargers couldn't stop a
3:40
Nosebleed so public got that one.
3:42
But the one that I am just so ashamed and embarrassed by was
3:46
that magic over. Man, I don't know what is about
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NBAI feel like I'm ice cold in the NBA.
3:51
I can't catch a break in the NBA, but that magic over 213,
3:56
you know, later in the day it fell to 212.
3:58
My buddy Derouche DM Ed me and he said, well, this is not good.
4:00
I'm like, Yep, you are right, Derouche.
4:03
But we actually saw that game go way under and they scored 179
4:09
points. They scored 32 points in the
4:10
third quarter. So that was just one of those
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games where whether you cry or laugh, just not even close
4:16
there. That was that was why I try to
4:19
limit my plays here in the NBA. But either way, guys, whether
4:21
we're two and three, three and two, five and OO and five, you
4:24
guys know the drill. We're going to grind, hopefully
4:27
grind our way back to profitability for today.
4:29
So I want to start off with some college football for tonight.
4:33
Two games here in Matchon, Kent State, Buffalo and Toledo and
4:36
Akron. This is my daily complaint or
4:39
weekly complaint that both games are at 7:00.
4:41
I still don't understand why you can't give me a 7:00 game and a
4:44
8:00 or seven and a 9:00. Or wouldn't it be great at 7:00
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and 10:00? But either way, put that to the
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side. One day when I maybe, maybe
4:52
become commissioner of college football, I'll look at games
4:55
through the lens of sports betters, which I think probably
4:58
will never happen, but maybe it will anyway.
5:01
Let's start off with a game here, Toledo and Akron, 7:00
5:06
Eastern Time. Toledo comes in this game 7:00
5:09
and 4:00. However, just saw their two
5:10
game-winning streak come to an end.
5:11
They fell to Ohio 24 to 7 lost out rate as a 1 1/2 point home
5:16
favorite. Remember we had Ohio in the
5:18
under there, so that was a good night for us.
5:20
On the other hand, Akron 3:00 and 8:00, but they did just snap
5:22
A2 game losing skid. They beat Kent State 38 to 17.
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They covered as a 10 1/2 point home Rd. favorite in that one.
5:30
So what do we see across the market here?
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Well, Toledo open this game as a nine point Rd. favorite and the
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public takes one look at the records.
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Toledo seven and four, Akron, 3:00 and 8:00.
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And they say I'm not scared off by the 9.
5:42
This is going to be Toledo by double digits.
5:44
So at DraftKings, Toledo is getting 79% of spread bets.
5:48
At Circa, they're getting 76% of spread bets.
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So both a public book like DraftKings, a sharp book like
5:54
Circa, all the public here or the majority of tickets are on
5:58
Toledo. So you guys might know where I'm
5:59
headed here. My first inclination is, hey, we
6:02
got great value on Akron. But one thing that's always
6:04
important is to have contrarian tendencies as your foundation.
6:09
But you don't just want to be contrarian for contrarian sake.
6:11
You want to ideally incorporate some sharp money in the form of
6:15
a low bets, higher dollars bet, split a reverse line, move
6:18
esteem, move 5050 dog to fave. Again, you got to have some
6:21
element or you hope to have some element of sharp action to
6:24
combine not just betting against the drunk guys at the bar, but
6:27
being with the Billy Walters and the Jimmy, the Greeks as as as
6:31
you might say. But anyway, we do have a little
6:34
bit of that because Toledo open -9 now you might see that
6:37
they're still -9 which would be a line freeze heavy betting
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Toledo. But the line hasn't moved.
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But if you look throughout the last couple days, this line got
6:44
all the way down to Toledo -8 I think it was -8 yesterday.
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It has come up back a little bit up to -9 There's some shops that
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are at 8 1/2. So the fact that it's never
6:53
really gone up to 9 1/2 or 10 despite 3 out of four bets in
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favor of Toledo, that tells me that there's a reluctance on the
7:00
side of the odds makers were, hey, they know they're taking in
7:02
all these tickets on Toledo, but they're more concerned, it looks
7:06
like with the contrarian betters going with Akron.
7:09
So line freeze some RLM, they're the number one contrarian play
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of the night here, getting around 25% of tickets and a big
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ESPN 2 game at Circa. Again, important to kind of
7:20
compare and contrast Circa to DraftKings because they're
7:22
different style of clientele and betters.
7:25
Again, public more with DraftKings, sharps more with
7:27
Circa, but I like this bet split at Circa.
7:30
Akron's only getting 21% of bets, but 44% of dollars.
7:34
So pretty good low bets, higher dollars bet split Akron, by the
7:37
way, one day rest advantage. Hey, I'll take it.
7:40
They last played on Wednesday of last week till you played on
7:43
Friday. So again, hopefully that's an
7:45
advantage here. Akron also is that conference
7:49
dog built in familiarity, leveling the playing field,
7:51
benefiting the team, getting points.
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So you add it all up here, guys, I think it's an opportunity to
7:56
take the dog. Now I know Toledo, seven and
7:58
four, they're already making a bowl game.
8:00
Akron again, three and eight, they can't make a bowl.
8:02
But I did notice that this is, I believe senior night for Akron.
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So maybe you get that, that motivational factor of maybe you
8:08
lose, but you keep it close. I did notice with the total, it
8:12
did take up a little bit. It was 48 1/2.
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It's up to 4949 1/2 at circa 44% bets, 55% money is on the over
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and we have seen matching overs do very well, 60% this year.
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And it's not a great, it's not a crazy weather play, it's not
8:27
great, but it's also not terrible.
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It's going to be like mid 30s, cloudy skies, 7 mile per hour
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winds. So it's not like a crazy windy
8:34
under. We had it all up here guys.
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I had my eye on Akron and now that we can again get the 9
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important to shop around and get that nine.
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That 9 is available. I want to say I got it either at
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FanDuel or Caesar's, but I'm going to go contrarian with this
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line. Freeze or RLM play, give me
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Akron plus the points. I got Akron +9 next game Kent
8:55
State and Buffalo. Could this be a blowout?
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You know what I hope it is? Kent State comes in.
9:00
Oh and 11 they're trying to not have a a winless season.
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Although on your dog by 23 1/2 at Buffalo, you're probably
9:08
going to have that winless season.
9:10
But anyway, haven't won a single game all year.
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They just lost to Akron. As we mentioned, 3817 didn't
9:15
cover as a 10 1/2 point home dog Buffalo, by the way, seven and
9:18
four. They've won four straight, just
9:20
beat Eastern Michigan 37 to 10. Remember that was the the game
9:24
where we we got Buffalo, but we lost that under when that big,
9:28
big linebacker Bill Romanowski junior had to pick 6.
9:32
But anyway, they they easily won that game was a one point Rd.
9:35
dog. What are we seeing across the
9:37
market here? Well, it's been nothing but
9:39
Buffalo movement. The Buffalo Bulls opened as
9:44
around a 21 point home favorite. They've now been bet up all the
9:47
way to -23 1/2, even some shops up to -24 Now, if you look at
9:53
the bet split, it actually looks both pro and Joe.
9:56
And I think it's important to note that, you know, often times
9:59
you'll hear this, a pro versus Joe game where all the pros are
10:01
on one side, the average Joes are on the other.
10:04
And again, that does happen. Sometimes they're on the same
10:06
side. And again, the public or is
10:09
going to bet based on, you know, Kent State being O and 11:00.
10:11
And they don't care what the line is.
10:12
It could be -23 1/2, it could be -50 they're just going to say
10:16
Kent State stinks. I want to fade.
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Kent State wise guys don't care what the public does.
10:20
They're betting based on their own internal power ratings and
10:23
numbers. And their numbers kind of say to
10:25
me that, hey, this should be around a 24 point spread because
10:29
when it opened -21 they hammered Buffalo.
10:31
And the other thing about Buffalo has been there's been no
10:33
buyback. Like I was thinking, hey, you
10:35
open -21 maybe by the time you get up to 2223, wise guys say,
10:41
hey, Kent State stinks, but there's no value on Kent State.
10:44
That has not happened. There's been no buyback on Kent
10:46
State. It's been nothing but Buffalo
10:48
money causing that line move in their favor.
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They're getting 73% of bets. I don't like being on the public
10:54
side, but they're getting 85% dollars at DraftKings, a good
10:57
low bets, higher dollars bet split.
11:00
Buffalo has the better offense, 28 points a game versus 15
11:03
points a game and the better defense.
11:05
Buffalo's giving up thirty points a game, not great, but
11:08
Kent State's giving up 44 points a game.
11:11
Also, Buffalo again is senior night here, which probably want
11:15
to play well in your last game, Kent State.
11:17
The other angle here is like, I know, you know, the thought
11:20
process would be, oh, you're O and 11:00.
11:22
You don't want to go O and 12:00.
11:23
You want to play really, really hard tonight.
11:25
What if it's the other way? What if Kent State says we can't
11:28
wait for the season to end? We're O and 11:00.
11:30
It's been a terrible year, you know, do they get just
11:33
absolutely rolled tonight? That's that's my hope.
11:36
I'm actually laying the points here, guys.
11:38
I got Buffalo at -23 1/2. Make sure you can get the 23 1/2
11:42
because again, 24 is a bit of a key number.
11:44
That's three touchdowns and a field goal.
11:46
So if you win by 24, you want to win your -23 1/2 bet, you don't
11:50
want to push a -, 24. So believe it or not, I'm laying
11:54
it. I'm laying it here with Buffalo.
11:56
And I was a little bit leaning to the under, you know, open
11:59
around some shops were around 50 down to 49 and a half 49.
12:04
This is a bit of a windy under 13 to 15 mile per hour winds.
12:08
And you do have Kent State a very slow team in terms of pace.
12:12
They rank 131 in pace out of 100 and 3014.
12:15
So if you tell me like the under, I'm not going to argue
12:17
with you. But again, I've seen this.
12:20
I've seen this movie before when you're a favorite and you just
12:22
get bet up, bet up, bet up, bet up and bet up.
12:26
Typically that means that, you know, the lines getting worse,
12:28
sharp still like it. So again, I don't know the last
12:31
time I've laid 23 1/2 points, but I'm going to do it tonight.
12:33
I'm going to hope that Buffalo absolutely destroys Kent State.
12:37
And again, that's the way the lines moving, that's the way the
12:39
percentages are leaning. So I'm going to go Buffalo -23
12:43
1/2. What if they win 37 to three?
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How about that? And let's go Akron +9.
12:49
You can tail fade, do whatever you like, but those are my two
12:51
bets here in college football. Now I want to mention one game
12:55
early because it's an early kick or an early tip off, 5:00
12:59
Eastern Time. And then I'm going to get to the
13:01
big one because I know you're interested in Duke, Kansas
13:03
tonight. Let's talk in college hoops, a
13:06
5:00 game, South Dakota State against Missouri State.
13:10
Now this is the Cayman Islands classic is the third place game.
13:13
So wouldn't it be nice to be in the Cayman Islands today?
13:16
But South Dakota State comes in five and two.
13:19
They just came up one point short against Boise State.
13:22
Missouri State, they're four and two.
13:24
They lost by two and overtime to BC.
13:27
Both teams played yesterday. Now, what are we looking at for
13:30
this one sharp line move on South Dakota State?
13:33
Give me the Jack Rabbits. I got the Jack Rabbits money
13:36
line at -120 that was a FanDuel. But I like this line movement.
13:39
This game opened South Dakota State as a very short, one point
13:43
neutral site favorite. And South Dakota State has now
13:46
been bet up to -2 even see one shop 2 1/2.
13:50
So there's been nothing but movement in favor of South
13:52
Dakota State. And again, 5:00 game.
13:56
There's a lot of games today. This is not a added game, extra
13:59
game, but it's a very low bet. Obscure line move like this is a
14:01
very low bet game. Yet wise guys have taken a clear
14:04
position on South Dakota State, causing that steam in favor of
14:07
the Jack rabbits. Now FanDuel or sorry, DraftKings
14:11
spread and money line percentages look really good on
14:14
South Dakota State. They're getting 73% of spread
14:16
bets, but 91% of money. And on the money line, which is
14:20
where I'm going, I got a -, 120 to win the game.
14:23
Again, I'm not laying A2. Having them win by one or two
14:25
and I push or lose and -120 is not a very bad price if you ask
14:29
me. But on the money line, Jack
14:31
Rabbits getting 66% bets, but 90% dollars.
14:36
So good low bets, higher dollars bets split.
14:38
Now, Ken Palm does have South Dakota State winning by one
14:40
point. He's got them ranked higher, 146
14:43
versus 152. But our friends at Rhythm,
14:46
they're even more bullish on the Jack rabbits. 2 models here with
14:50
Rhythm, one says Jack rabbit should be -2.4, but the other
14:55
one has Jack rabbits -3.4. So again, both of those, even if
14:59
you take the lower number, show value here or at least an edge
15:03
hopefully on South Dakota State. And I'm going to bank on the the
15:07
offensive efficiency. Hopefully South Dakota State's
15:09
offense comes to play again. They just scored 82 against
15:12
Boise, but they are 134 in the country and offense efficiency.
15:18
But if you look at Missouri State, they are ranked 240.
15:21
So much better offense and effective field goal percentage
15:24
54% versus 47%. So better offense, low bet,
15:29
obscure sharp line move. Ken Palms got him winning.
15:32
Rhythms got him winning. Good bet split.
15:33
I'm going to go South Dakota State Jack rabbits.
15:35
And remember this is a early game 5:00 Eastern Time.
15:39
I don't even know if it's on TVI don't even know if it's on ESPN
15:41
Plus, but might have to might have to old school stat track
15:44
that one in the ESPN game cast. Anyway, I'm going Jack rabbits.
15:48
Let's win the damn game. Let's go thumpers at -120 next
15:54
the big one, Duke against Kansas.
15:58
This is the biggest game of the night 9:00 So it's primetime
16:01
baby. This game is on ESPN so it's the
16:06
most heavily bet game of the night. 2 great teams.
16:08
Kansas is the number one team in the country 5 and O Duke is the
16:12
number 11 team in the country four and one.
16:16
Now, let me ask you this because this is the this is these names
16:18
are great, the Terry's chocolate Vegas showdown at T-Mobile
16:22
Arena. But anyway, first thing I'm
16:25
going to ask you is who's favorite in this game?
16:27
It's got to be, it's got to be Kansas, right?
16:29
They're the number one team in the country undefeated.
16:31
Surely they're the favorite over the 11th ranked team in the
16:34
country, right? On a neutral court.
16:37
No, The first thing to notice about this game is that Kansas
16:40
is not favored. Duke is favored.
16:44
Duke is currently a three-point favorite.
16:46
Now, why is that important? The public will is saying, hey,
16:50
the odds makers got this one wrong.
16:51
Kansas is the better team, Undefeated, ranked higher.
16:55
They're getting three points. Take those points all day long.
16:58
But what's the one thing that hopefully you've learned by now
17:01
through the all systems Go, Potter, You've learned it on
17:03
your own the hard way. It's that when things look too
17:05
good to be true, they usually are.
17:07
When things look fishy and don't make sense, you want to embrace
17:11
the fishy don't make sense. So the fact that Duke is favored
17:15
automatically despite being the 11th ranked team, I love that I
17:19
automatically look at Duke. Then I do a little bit more
17:21
digging. I like it even more for Duke.
17:24
Currently, the Dukies are only getting 39% of bets and a nine
17:28
o'clock ESPN game. So we're off the bat this they
17:30
fade the trendy dog, but they're getting 61% of dollars.
17:34
So again, only 39% bets, 61% dollars.
17:38
Now let's look at the line move. This game opened with Duke
17:41
around a 2 1/2 point favorite. Now they're up to -3 if the
17:45
public's all over Kansas, why is the line going further to Duke?
17:48
If the odds makers were given the public a + 2 1/2 with
17:51
Kansas, why are they now saying, hey, you like the 2 1/2 here,
17:54
I'll give you 3. I even see a couple shops going
17:57
to 3 1/2. So that tells me we have a great
17:59
fade. The trendy dog contrarian
18:01
favorite and a heavily bet game opportunity.
18:04
Ken Palm has Duke winning by 5. I also like the fact that again,
18:08
the, you know, the rankings are based on the voters, so they're
18:11
based on people. Ken Palm does his rankings and
18:14
ratings based on computers. And what I like about that is
18:17
computers don't have a bias. They go off the numbers.
18:20
Ken Palm actually has Duke ranked higher.
18:22
He has Duke ranked 4th in the country.
18:23
He has Kansas ranked 9th. Rhythm has Duke winning by 3.3.
18:29
So again, it's kind of right on the number here, but I love the
18:33
angle of why is the number one team in the country a dog
18:35
tonight? Public thinks the wrong team is
18:37
favored. They're taking Kansas plus 3.
18:39
But this tells me we got sharp money on the Dukies.
18:42
Duke and Kansas are both top 15 offenses.
18:45
Duke has the much better defense, number one team in the
18:47
country defensively, Kansas is number 14 and free throw
18:51
percentage, again, could be a tight game.
18:54
I hope the Dukies roll. But 73% versus 68% and better
18:58
three-point shooting 37% versus 34%.
19:02
So this is the game that, you know I love to play heavily bet
19:06
primetime, ESPN, everyone's on the trendy dog Kansas Jayhawks.
19:11
Yet the sharp money is going with the Dookies.
19:13
So again, you may hate Duke, you might want to always fade them,
19:17
but tonight's a night where they're sharp as a GD tech.
19:21
So I'm going to go with the Dookies here, guys.
19:22
I got Duke, Duke on the money line.
19:25
That's the money line play for me.
19:26
I'm not going to have Duke win by 1-2 or three and I push or
19:28
lose. I got Duke at -154 on the money
19:31
line at FanDuel. And by the way, if you've never
19:34
seen this kid Cooper flag play, he's pretty darn good.
19:37
So it might be your first chance to probably see the the number
19:39
one pick here in the upcoming draft.
19:41
But let's go dookies. Last one for you.
19:45
Let's stay up late. Rutgers and Notre Dame this
19:49
game. Rutgers and Notre Dame, this is
19:51
another tournament game. Not the NCAA tournament
19:54
obviously, but the players era festival impact tournament.
19:58
That's a mouthful. Also in Vegas they're playing
20:00
this one of the MGMMGM grand. So here I'm in, here I am in
20:04
Boston with some FOMO. You got all these great college
20:06
games in Vegas. I miss Vegas tonight.
20:08
But anyway, Rutgers comes in four and one just lost to
20:12
Kennesaw. They were favored by 11 1/2,
20:15
lost by two, and then Notre Dame just lost to Elon.
20:18
Notre Dame's also 4:00 and 1:00 and they were, I believe a 15
20:22
point favorite in that one. This game opened at roughly a
20:25
pick em, a pick em, or it was like Rutgers -1 very short
20:30
number, but all moving in liability has come in on
20:33
Rutgers. Rutgers is now up to -2 some
20:36
shops juiced up, even moving up toward 2 1/2.
20:40
So that's notable to me the fact that hey, we open very short
20:42
number in a neutral court. Where's the line moving?
20:46
It's going Rutgers here. So I'm going to Rutgers money
20:49
line. I got him at -125 at Caesars.
20:51
Good bet splits here at Draft Kings on the money line, 68%
20:55
bets, but 80% dollars. The spread at circa 50% bets 72%
21:01
dollars. So both are jiving the low bets
21:04
higher dollars spread in money line with the line move toward
21:07
Rutgers. By the way, this is 1030 on TBS.
21:10
If you want to watch it, our friends at Rhythm actually have
21:14
Rutgers 2 system matches favored by three and favored by 3 1/2.
21:19
So the Rhythm edge is even bigger here on Rutgers.
21:22
Going to lean on Rutgers defense.
21:24
They ranked 72nd in the country versus rank 100 for the Irish.
21:28
And I was also reading about this kid, Dylan Harper, who was
21:32
Ron Harper's kid. I found out.
21:33
But they have a really talented young backcourt.
21:36
And I was kind of reading about how these young freshmen, again,
21:40
sometimes you have growing pains, you lose to Kennesaw, but
21:43
a much more talented team, They're ranked way higher than
21:46
the Irish in the preseason or the the preseason rankings.
21:50
They have much bigger guard play, which could have a lot of
21:53
fits here for Notre Dame. But we open a very, you know,
21:56
short -1 pick em Rutgers. Now, Rutgers is up to two.
22:00
I haven't seen any buyback on Notre Dame.
22:02
I'm gonna go Rutgers here to hopefully win the damn game.
22:05
Late night -125 in the money line.
22:08
So Duke, South Dakota State and Rutgers, all three money lines.
22:11
Can we find a way to get two of those?
22:14
Now, I wanted to mention a couple games this weekend or
22:16
sorry, on Friday. Again, got to be conscious of
22:19
this college football schedule because it's a little weird over
22:22
the next few days. But there are two games on
22:25
Friday that caught my eye. So these are on the 29th.
22:27
Let me make sure. Yeah, that's Friday.
22:29
The 1st 1 was just pull it up here.
22:33
East Carolina and Navy. Now this one jumped out to me.
22:36
This is a noon Eastern Time, so I don't know if you'll still be
22:39
comatose from all your all your eating and and NFL sweats on
22:43
Thursday, but there's a noontime game and Navy comes in seven and
22:48
three, but they're struggling as of late.
22:50
Remember, they were undefeated and they are ranked pretty high
22:52
at one point, but they've lost three straight or sorry, they've
22:55
lost 3 or 4. E Carolina 7:00 and 4:00, but
22:58
they're going the other way. They're rounding into form.
23:00
They've won four straight and they've pretty much been rolling
23:02
against everybody recently. And the first thing I noticed is
23:06
that this was about a pick em game.
23:08
Pick em. I even saw one book that was, I
23:10
want to say Navy -1 this game's at East Carolina, but all
23:14
movement is on East Carolina. It looks like East Carolina is
23:16
really sharp for this one. Pick them or even a short dog.
23:20
Now they're up to -2 1/2, so they're taking in a lot of
23:23
steam. At DraftKings, they're getting
23:26
34% bets but 75% money. So this looks like a really good
23:30
fade. The trendy dog play at Circa,
23:33
75% bets, 94% money, and the DraftKings money line 36% bets,
23:38
76% dollars. So both DraftKings and Circa
23:41
have really good bet splits on both the side and the side and
23:44
the OR. Sorry the money line and the
23:46
spread here. EC was playing much better as of
23:49
late. Navy is tailing off.
23:52
When's that Army Navy game? That's their last game of the
23:54
year yes, maybe it's look at toward Army, Army Navy.
23:58
This is East Carolina's last home game.
24:00
So it's another senior night or senior day, guys.
24:03
I like East Carolina here again, it just to one team, you know,
24:07
struggling, one team peeking and the line going toward the home
24:10
team. By the way, rhythm has East
24:13
Carolina winning by about 1. So it's not a huge rhythm edge.
24:16
But this is a market based really sharp line move public is
24:19
on Navy lines going to ECU. So I'm thinking about putting an
24:23
ECU right now on the money line. Shop around.
24:26
I think it's around -130 around there -135 Then another game on
24:32
Friday, Stanford and San Jose State.
24:35
This one caught my eye, very similar.
24:37
If you like East Carolina, you're probably like San Jose
24:39
State. It's a 4:00 game.
24:42
We have Stanford coming in three and eight.
24:44
They've lost four of their last five.
24:46
San Jose State 6:00 and 5:00, but they've lost three of their
24:49
last four. So neither team is playing great
24:51
down the stretch. But this looks like a San Jose
24:53
State play to me. San Jose State open as a very
24:56
short one, 1 1/2 point home favorite.
24:59
San Jose State is now up to -3 so good Steam on San Jose State,
25:05
they're around -145 on the money line if you want to play it.
25:08
But a good bet split 57% bets 76% dollars on the spread, 60%
25:14
bets 85% dollars on the money line.
25:16
Those are both at circa at or sorry at DraftKings at Circa 67%
25:22
bets 98% money on the money line.
25:25
Now Rhythm has two models here, San Jose State by 6, San Jose
25:28
State by three. San Jose State does have a one
25:31
day rest advantage and home Rd. split.
25:33
San Jose State four and two at home and this is their third
25:36
straight home game. This is the second straight Rd.
25:39
game for Stanford. Stanford's only one and four on
25:41
the road. San Jose State four and two at
25:43
home. Better offense for San Jose
25:45
State, 27 a game versus 22 for Stanford and better defense
25:50
giving up 26 a game versus 34 for Stanford.
25:54
So again, San Jose State, they've got six wins.
25:56
They're going to make a bowl game.
25:57
You want to play well before your bowl game.
25:59
Stanford's three and eight, they got nothing to play for.
26:02
So I want to bet against them, but I'm going to put in ECU and
26:05
San Jose State, both money lines right after we finish up the
26:08
pod. So I wanted to give you at least
26:10
something to chew on, literally and figuratively, when you're
26:13
crushing the leftovers on Friday.
26:16
But that about does it, guys. Another pod here in the books.
26:19
This is the part of the pod where we wrap things up.
26:21
And I start by buttering you up so that I can then ask something
26:24
of you. So first, thank you so much for
26:27
tuning in each day to the ASG pod.
26:29
Win, lose or draw, the fact that you guys find value in the pod
26:33
and hopefully, you know, at this point, I try to shoot you
26:35
straight. There's no bias, there's no
26:36
opinion. We're data-driven betters.
26:38
We love where the sharp money's at.
26:40
We like to bet against the public or not.
26:42
We don't have favorite teams. And you know the old adage, you
26:44
know, wise guys bet numbers, not teams.
26:46
That's something that we pride ourselves on.
26:48
But if you enjoy the pod and you want to let me know you enjoy
26:51
the pod and you know I'm thankful for you as we approach
26:54
Thanksgiving Day, could you show that you're maybe thankful for
26:57
me by giving this podcast a five star review?
27:01
It's free. It cost you no money to do it.
27:02
It would make my day. It would help us to grow the
27:05
pod. I think we're up to 287 five
27:07
star reviews. So let's keep that thing going.
27:10
But it would mean a lot help us to grow as well as if you would
27:14
like to give it a follow that we get alerted, click the follow
27:16
button as soon as it drops each day.
27:18
And if you want to recommend it to a friend, that'll be
27:20
fantastic as well. Secondly, because it's the
27:24
holiday season and you're probably starting to think
27:27
about, or maybe you're stressing about shopping and getting gifts
27:30
for your family. And what are you going to get
27:32
your dad, your son, your cousin? What are you going to, you know,
27:35
give your your aunt, your uncle? Well, guess what?
27:37
I have a great idea for you to make your life very easy.
27:40
Bang it out today. Teach them to be a data-driven
27:43
sports better. If you want to learn more about
27:45
data-driven sports betting or gift the the value of knowledge
27:49
to someone else in your life who likes betting or is in a newly
27:51
legalized state or maybe just loves betting but struggles and
27:54
needs kind of a a blueprint to follow, Guess what?
27:57
I wrote a book and makes a great stocking stuffer.
27:59
It's less than 20 bucks. It's called the everything Guide
28:02
to Sports betting. Just go to Amazon.com, type in
28:05
the everything guide to sports betting, pick up a copy for you
28:08
or for a friend. It's got everything I've learned
28:10
in the industry. How lines are set, how and why
28:12
they move, how to read line movement, how to locate sharp
28:15
action, how to place a bet in person or online, how to shop
28:18
for the best line, how to set up a bankroll management plan, all
28:21
included in the Everything guide to sports betting.
28:23
So pick one up and when you bring it to the sports book,
28:26
I'll sign it for you and I'll buy you a beer or ginger ale and
28:29
we'll sweat some sharp plays together next.
28:31
Have you taken advantage of a 7 day free trial of Juice Reel or
28:35
Rhythm yet? Two of my favorite sports
28:37
betting apps on the market because they're all based on
28:40
data, just like I. I try to be based on data, not
28:43
opinion, not bias. But both apps are great.
28:45
They help us to power the pod. They're going to help you win
28:48
because I know they help me win. But Rhythm, of course, helping
28:50
us cash. Joshua Palmer over yesterday
28:53
with their AI backed models and predictions for game bets and
28:56
player props. Also, you know, with all these
28:58
obscure college games going on in college hoops, Rhythm's got
29:01
predictions for all of them. So go download that Rhythm app.
29:05
And then of course, I'd love for you to download Juice Reel as
29:07
well. Juice Reel is where all the all
29:09
systems go best bets are now posted.
29:12
I think we're up to 32 people who have subscribed to the all
29:15
systems go best bets on Juice Reel.
29:17
So I appreciate you guys. It's 499 a week again, I I I
29:22
hate the thought of being a tout, but think of it as
29:25
hopefully getting good numbers before they move.
29:27
Think of it as supporting the podcast.
29:29
This pods completely free. But if the pod helps you make
29:32
some money, if it if you value the the insights, let me know by
29:36
signing up for those those best bets on juice reel.
29:40
I tweeted out each day. But you can just search ASG
29:42
under score podcast on the social tab.
29:45
But download rhythm. You can also get the Robo
29:47
Jackson best bet picks, the arbitrage plays, the sharp mush
29:50
indicators, real dollar breakdowns, bets in dollars and
29:54
all the games from people who have synced up their sports
29:56
books to the app. And also an underrated feature
29:58
of juice Real is easily shopping for the best number.
30:02
It just spits out to the best price for futures.
30:05
So if you want to bet, you know, Lions to win the Super Bowl or
30:08
you want to bet maybe you think Bonex can overtake Jane Daniels
30:12
for Offensive Rookie of the year.
30:14
It'll quickly spit out to you all those categories and what
30:16
book is giving you the best price.
30:18
So it's all available at juice real and and and rhythm as well.
30:21
Go download those apps to help me when they're going to help
30:24
you win. So that about does it as I think
30:27
my wife is texting me about something as my phone continues
30:30
to blow up. So I wonder what she's asking
30:32
for. But anyway, hope you guys have a
30:34
great what is it Thanksgiving Eve eve tonight.
30:39
Let's see if we can cash some tickets.
30:40
But as always, I'll leave you with a couple things.
30:42
One, whether I see you at the Borgata in Atlantic City, Twin
30:46
River in Rhode Island, the Brooklyn, New Hampshire,
30:48
Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun, down in Connecticut at the Encore in
30:51
Boston, or Plain Ridge Park Casino or MGM Springfield in my
30:55
neck of the woods in Massachusetts.
30:56
Or out in the desert where the true grinders get down.
30:59
Or Billy Walter sends his number runners where the lowest juice
31:01
possible is found at the South Point or Sweat and Sharp
31:04
Contrary, and plays jumping in the stadium swimming pool when
31:07
he cash a big ticket at Circa. Wherever it may be.
31:09
You're going to walk up to me and you just show me a Josh
31:12
Palmer over an Abilene Christian play.
31:15
Whatever you do, Chargers McNeese and dear God, was that
31:18
embarrassing with the magic. That was just pathetic that that
31:21
was about as bad of a call or biggest whiff I've had in quite
31:25
a while. But hey, betting's hard
31:27
Sometimes that happens. But guess what?
31:29
We're going to sweat sharp and train plays together.
31:32
Hopefully have some some winning, some winning tickets to
31:34
to share. But anyway, guys, that about
31:36
does it. Another pod in the books.
31:39
As always, some words of wisdom that I've learned over time and
31:42
I want you to always remember, stay sharp, stay contrarian, bet
31:46
against the public, place yourself on the side of the
31:48
house. Always be with the smart money,
31:50
never against it. Will smart money when every
31:52
time, of course not. Sometimes smart money loses.
31:55
Smart money was on the chargers, yet they didn't didn't cover the
31:58
number. Sometimes that happens.
32:00
But again, I always, I kind of make the joke about the
32:03
weatherman, the meteorologist, the weather woman on, on TV, she
32:07
might say it's going to rain and it's a bright shiny day and you
32:10
say, wow, they got it wrong. Sometimes they get it wrong.
32:13
But again, long haul, majority of the time they get it right.
32:15
So if that weather person tells you it's going to rain, you
32:18
should still bring your, you know, your, your, your umbrella,
32:22
your raincoat, because they might get it wrong once in a
32:25
while, but typically they get it right long term.
32:27
That's kind of like the wise guys.
32:29
They're going to they're going to lose sometimes, but they're
32:31
going to win 55 to 60% of the time, which is why we want to be
32:34
on the sharp side and against the public.
32:37
And if we can do that, that games with our head and not our
32:39
heart. Against the public, with the
32:40
house, with the pros, flat bet, avoid parlays, get that CLV.
32:44
If we can do that, and I think we can, I'm confident of that.
32:48
I think we're going to be a good sports bettors long term.
32:50
So enjoy the sweats. Everyone have a great Tuesday.
32:53
We got a 5 pack. Let's try to go three and two
32:55
eke out a winning night. Wish you the best of luck.
32:57
Everyone will be back at it tomorrow for a real Thanksgiving
33:01
Eve pod. That'll be episode 172 of the
33:04
All Systems Go sports Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
33:08
Good luck everybody. Have a great Tuesday night.