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What Risks Should CEOs Prioritize in 2026? · C-Suite Perspectives

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  Steve Odland: Welcome to C-Suite Perspectives, a signature
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  series by The Conference Board.
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  I'm Steve Odland from The Conference Board and the host of this podcast series.
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  And in today's conversation, we're going to talk about what
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  CEOs are worried about now?
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  What are the risks they're looking at?
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  What are their companies worried about as we approach the new year?
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  Joining me today is David Young.
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  He's the president of the Committee for Economic Development, which is the public
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  policy center of The Conference Board.
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  David, welcome.
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  David Young: Thank you, Steve.
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  Great to be here.
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  Steve Odland: So David, you interview and interact with CEOs every single day.
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  You hear about their concerns and what's going on.
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  I think if you look back over 2025, gosh, is there any subject that has
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  been more discussed than tariffs?
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  What are CEOs saying about tariffs today?
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  David Young: Yeah, Steve, I think you're exactly right.
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  If you look back over the last 12 months, it's really hard to find another topic
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  out there that has been discussed more or that has been more instrumental
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  than tariffs, but even more widely than tariffs, trade policy, in general.
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  I think, as you know, CEOs, they like predictability.
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  They like certainty.
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  That helps them make long-term, viable, sustainable strategic
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  investment decisions.
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  And the fluctuation and uncertainty that has been caused around the
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  whole conversation with regards to tariffs has certainly provided
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  a greater number of variables for these CEOs to make their decisions.
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  It is very interesting, as the year has gone by, there were some sweeping
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  tariffs made at the beginning, and now you're seeing a move towards
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  more and more trade agreements and bilateral trade negotiations taking
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  place on behalf of the US government.
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  I think that the general consensus, as well, especially when you speak to
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  economists, they view tariffs as a tax.
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  And a lot of the CEOs who are CED Trustees that we're talking to, are trying
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  to wrestle with, OK, what do we then do?
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  Do we absorb those increased costs within our existing operating
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  structures and business models, or are there opportunities to pass that
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  price increase along to the consumer?
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  And I think there's an interesting part there, is you better
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  know your consumer very well.
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  If you're going to pass on increased costs to them, you better understand the price
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  elasticity and also the future demand.
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  So we're definitely seeing the CEOs that we're speaking to wrestling
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  with a wide variety of drivers and restrainers with regards to tariffs.
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  The other thing I think that is important to take into account is how the tariffs
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  then impact very complex supply chains that are global and fast moving.
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  And how can CEOs then look at these supply chains and build in greater
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  operational agility, greater diversity, greater resilience to ensure that they
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  are shoring up the financial viability of their businesses, their returns
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  to shareholders, and also resilience within those global supply chains?
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  And we can get into a little bit more detail.
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  Steve Odland: Yeah, and I think one of the biggest concerns was that these
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  tariffs would flow through to the consumer primarily and drive a great level of
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  inflation, but in fact, they are being absorbed a bit along the supply chain.
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  So, the early suppliers or the ingredient suppliers.
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  Some of the foreign suppliers are absorbing 10 to 20% of it.
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  And you see the end consumer, depending on the product and the company,
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  absorbing 30 to 50%, but the rest are hitting the margins of the manufacturers
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  and the retailers in between.
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  So it's really spread out.
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  Nevertheless, that's a drag on margins and profitability, but
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  it is getting through to the consumer, and that raises concerns.
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  David Young: Yeah, and I think you bring up a great point here.
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  I think it is, it's on a case-by-case basis.
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  Industry by industry, company-by-company basis as to how each of those companies
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  are navigating these challenges and where the price increases, if they are
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  applicable, where they are being absorbed.
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  It's interesting that we have this conversation with a
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  busy retail season coming up.
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  And when we speak to the CEOs and I ask them, "Hey, how are you actually
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  navigating some of these challenges?" And the general thinking is some
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  organizations, some companies can lean in and have an ability to adjust and
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  pivot, and others are kind of taking more of a wait-and-see approach.
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  But if you're in the retail industry, and you are approaching this busy holiday
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  season, you may not have the ability to wait and see, cause you have to make
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  pricing decisions now based on what you're hoping to be a busy commercial season.
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  And that means you have to anticipate what future demand will be.
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  You have to understand your end user, your consumer, and you have to understand
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  how price is going to fluctuate as a result of potentially increasing prices.
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  And so that's why I say I think this is one of the best examples out there
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  in terms of, it really does show that there isn't a one-strategy-fits-all
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  with how people, CEOs, and organizations can approach navigating the
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  uncertain times caused by tariffs.
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  Steve Odland: Yeah, and you don't know if it's permanent.
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  I mean, when you look at the objectives of the administration, some of
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  the objective is to raise money.
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  And the projection is that it will raise about $400 billion,
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  which is a lot of money.
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  But another objective is to get to better trade deals, more fair trade deals.
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  So they're launching the tariffs in order to get the other countries
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  to lower the barriers, which means that they're temporary.
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  Others are being used for geopolitical purposes, to punish certain
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  countries for buying Russian oil.
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  So there's a lot of different objectives in this, but to the extent that the
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  objectives are short term and are cured, then the tariffs should come down.
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  The price, the cost should come down.
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  And so companies have to deal with that because a lot of companies can't
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  really get price reductions through retailers or through to the consumer.
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  And so they have to be careful about not raising the prices too
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  much, in case these things come down, because they can't adjust it.
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  So all of these things are part of the risk profile.
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  David Young: Yeah, and I think, so two quick points on this one.
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  One, if you're not sure of the long-term direction with regards
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  to specific tariffs, how do these CEOs then make long-term investment
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  policy strategic decisions?
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  And so when there is this incentive and push to onshore manufacturing, let's
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  say, back to the US, you are seeing more and more CEOs having to take a
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  slightly more wait-and-see approach because they need to understand what the
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  long-term perspectives and trajectory is.
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  The other part I want to mention here is so, beyond just the companies, when
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  we look at countries and how they are navigating this changing environment,
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  on a phone call last week with a notable CEO, he said, "David, it's really
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  interesting. When you start looking at bilateral negotiations with the US,
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  they don't take place in isolation." Countries are actually competing with
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  other countries when it comes to tariffs.
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  So it's not just a potential tariff increase from the US on another country.
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  It's what other countries are negotiating with the US, and how each
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  of these other countries are related to each other with regards to the US.
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  So is it more favorable to France versus Italy and the UK, or are
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  we all on an even playing field?
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  Steve Odland: It's interesting, you've got a lot of CEOs who are out there,
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  American CEOs who are out there lobbying for more tariffs on competitors,
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  essentially, at foreign competitors because they're trying to get a leg up on
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  the competition here, which, you scratch your head a little bit, and you go,
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  "Wow, do we really want that going on?"
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  But that's happening, as well.
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  Here now there is the Supreme Court case, which is out there, which likely
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  won't be, the decision likely won't be announced till next year sometime.
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  But talk just a minute about that, and how that could impact things.
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  Because that's another layer of uncertainty and risk.
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  David Young: Yep.
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  Absolutely.
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  So as you've alluded to, the US Supreme Court held oral arguments
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  challenging President Trump's use of the International Emergency
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  Economic Powers Act, that's IEEPA.
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  And this relates to his authority to impose global tariffs.
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  If IEEPA authority is lost.
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  I think it's important that everyone understand that the administration
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  still has fallback options.
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  The administration for quite some time has always been pretty clear
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  that tariffs were a central mechanism that they, to some extent, liked
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  when it came to trade policy.
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  So I think it's important that when, even if that authority is lost,
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  there are other mechanisms at the disposal of the administration to
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  continue additional tariffs, and four I just want to mention here.
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  There's Section 122.
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  This allows a 15% tariff for 150 days.
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  It's immediate but temporary.
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  Then we've got Section 301.
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  This targets countries for unfair trade practices.
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  For example, this has been used on China before.
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  We've got Section 232.
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  This is tariffs on industries for national security reasons, steel,
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  autos, two examples on that one.
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  And there's even Section 338.
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  This is from the 1930s, Steve.
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  And it's a law permitting up to 50% retaliatory tariffs.
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  It's never actually been used.
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  So I think it is important that, regardless of the Supreme Court's
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  decision, albeit very important, there has to be this understanding that most
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  likely, for the next three years of this administration, tariffs in some
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  way, shape, or form won't go away.
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  They are viewed as a valued and valuable mechanism by which to alter trade policy.
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  Steve Odland: OK.
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  So what you're saying is even if the Supreme Court holds for the plaintiffs
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  and overturns the president's use of tariffs under this IEEPA, this
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  emergency law, there are lots of other reasons that or laws that the president
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  could just reinstate the tariffs.
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  So your point is, it's a core fundamental strategy.
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  It's going to be out there in one shape or form, at one value, and
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  so, we've got to deal with it.
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  The other thing you said earlier, which is interesting, is there is a
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  national security element to this, the reshoring of manufacturing.
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  And they're not explaining it quite this strategically, but.
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  They're trying to get to basic materials, metals, rare earth
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  minerals, oil, manufacturing of pharmaceuticals, and chips and all the
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  things in order to supply the defense industry and ensure national security.
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  So that's another overlay to this whole use of tariffs to try to bring this back.
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  And your point is that CEOs are trying to react and adjust to all of that, too.
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  David Young: Yeah, so a couple things here to unpack.
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  In 12 months' time, Steve, when we do this podcast again, we're
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  going to be talking about tariffs.
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  I have no doubt about that.
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  And we'll be talking about trade, trade relations, and CEOs have to
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  take that on board and start really thoroughly, diligently looking at their
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  global supply chains, how that impacts their operations and their financial
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  viability, and also, as best they can, understanding their consumers.
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  The other thing, when you mentioned national security, the question
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  is out there, do you want to be reliant, does the United States want
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  to be reliant on other countries?
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  Some of those countries viewed in some way, shape, or form as adversaries,
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  do we want to be reliant on them for national inputs to our infrastructure,
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  to medical equipment, that are central to the future viability and safety
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  and security of the United States?
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  That's the question at the crux of this.
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  Steve Odland: Yeah.
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  Really important questions.
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  We're talking about tariffs and the risks of that CEOs are facing today.
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  We're going to take a short break and be right back.
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  Welcome back to C-Suite Perspectives.
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  I'm your host, Steve Odland, from The Conference Board, and I'm joined
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  today by David Young, who's the president of the Committee for Economic
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  Development, which is the public policy center of The Conference Board.
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  OK, so Davy, we talked a lot before the break about tariffs,
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  of course, but another piece of tariffs was to deal with the debt.
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  And one of the key concerns of CEOs today is the level of the debt, which
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  is right around 100% debt-to-GDP levels.
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  It's very high.
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  The interest on the debt exceeds the total of our national defense spending, which
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  itself exceeds the next nine countries.
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  This debt level is important, and the other piece of tariffs
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  is to try to provide revenue.
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  What are CEOs saying about the debt?
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  David Young: Yeah, so as we go back over the past couple years: fiscal
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  responsibility, debt levels, continuing deficits are a central and increasingly
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  important part of the conversation, and at the forefront of CEOs.
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  And I say increasingly because the debt is increasing.
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  If you look out, you said 100% of debt to GDP, it's not reducing, it's not
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  reducing to where CED would ideally like that goal to be, which is closer to 70%.
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  In fact, if you look out over the next decade, there are strong arguments
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  out there to say it's going to reach and or potentially exceed 200%.
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  When we look at the mechanisms here, there are five variables,
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  I think, important to consider when we look at debt and deficits.
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  We can tax more, we can curb spending, we can grow our way out of it.
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  And then we've got to consider inflation rates and interest rates.
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  Steve, you mentioned interest rates.
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  They're critical because if the debt level is increasing,
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  we've got to service that debt.
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  And the higher interest rates are, the higher that cost of borrowing will be.
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  So all these five factors cause this very intrinsic, complex web of causation here.
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  As you start looking at them, it's really hard to figure out
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  what is the golden ticket that's going to get out of this, right?
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  And I think one of the key things that has to be recognized is there has to be
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  greater, growing nonpartisan conversations between elected officials, recognizing
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  the need and severity to find a solution.
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  The problem here is sometimes what's in your personal, individual interest is not
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  in the interest of the whole, and that is something where there is a real wrestle
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  between how exactly do we get out of this.
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  And as you know, policy makers often don't agree, hold different opinions.
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  And when you look at, hey, should we tax more?
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  Can we curb spending?
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  How do we control interest rates?
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  It begins to get very complex.
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  But the thing is, the problem is not going away, and it's only getting worse.
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  And we need real leadership and decision makers to come together
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  as a group in a collaborative way to figure out what the answer is.
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  Because if the current trajectory continues, and CEOs recognize this,
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  it will not be in anyone's best interest, whether it's the current
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  generation or generations to come.
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  Steve Odland: But the current administration's strategy is
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  pretty well articulated.
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  First of all, they want 200 basis points worth of interest rates cuts so
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  that they can refinance the debt at a lower level and cut interest payments
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  by hundreds of billions of dollars.
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  They've got tariffs in there, which they're trying to raise a half a trillion
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  dollars a year, and then they're trying to cut a trillion dollars in spending.
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  That would essentially eliminate a $2 trillion annual deficit.
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  And then they're trying to ignite growth of the economy to grow into the current
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  debt level over the next 20 years.
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  So that's the strategy.
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  They're not getting it all done.
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  But this whole thing is a risk to CEOs, right?
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  Because you look at the US dollar, you look at the growth
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  trajectory of the economy.
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  All of that is linked right back to their forecast for their firms and all of their
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  financing costs, and everything else.
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  So these are all intertwined risks.
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  David Young: Yep, intertwined, and affect the attractiveness of the US as
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  an environment within which to invest.
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  And just on the point there that you mentioned, just growing your
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  way out of it, and attracting investment back into the US.
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  There are some really enlightening examples of organizations that in the last
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  year have really brought manufacturing and investment back to the US.
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  Walmart just made an announcement of a $350 billion commitment
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  back to American manufacturing.
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  What does that actually mean?
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  There's 750,000 American jobs coming back.
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  Apple, $600 billion.
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  Nvidia, $500 billion.
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  IBM, $150 billion.
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  And I've got plenty of examples here in terms of saying, "Hey, what is happening
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  in the US, and how do we actually attract investment and growth as one
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  of those five dynamics to start moving the needle in the right direction??
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  Steve Odland: Yeah.
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  Well, the other thing is, even though there've been layoffs, we're sitting
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  here at a record unemployment low.
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  So we don't have the employment available.
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  We don't have the skill sets available.
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  At the same time, we're trying to bring American jobs back.
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  So the people aren't there for it.
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  And that kind of feeds right into the whole H-1B issue, when
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  they're charging a hundred thousand dollars per H-1B visa, which is too
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  expensive for any of these positions.
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  And so this is another layer of risk, right?
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  Where is the labor going to come from when these jobs come back?
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  David Young: Yeah.
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  So two dimensions to this.
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  You can either import talent, or you can grow talent.
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  Part of CED's Trustee base is university presidents, and sitting
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  down with them over the last couple months, it is fascinating that
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  there is this deep realization and appreciation of the changing world
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  that we're living and operating in—fueled, again, by the impact of AI.
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  And how these organizations can and should change to really make
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  sure that we're growing the talent that is needed in the future.
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  So this is not just upskilling, it is also reskilling, and it's also
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  changing academic agendas and syllabus to make sure we are developing the
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  talent domestically as best we can.
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  And I think that goes hand in hand with making sure we can attract
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  foreign talent that helps us move up the value chain and grow economically.
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  Steve Odland: Another aspect is growth and productivity.
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  So through the '90s, we achieved about a hundred basis points with the GDP
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  growth from the productivity added through the digital revolution, the
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  introduction of PCs, and all the tools, programs, apps that went with that.
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  We're now on the precipice of yet another digital revolution
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  with AI and its introduction.
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  And the hope is that we can achieve that kind of productivity
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  once again for the next decade.
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  And if that happens, that contributes a lot.
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  But here again, CEOs are rapidly trying to figure out how to deploy AI.
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  And one of their biggest risks that they tell us about is that the
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  competitors are going to move faster and they're going to get left behind.
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  So lots of different layers of risk here.
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  David Young: Yep.
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  I mean, an unquestionable part is the risk.
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  And I think there has to be this appreciation that every company's
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  going to misstep in this realm.
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  I think, when we look at AI, where are we in the maturity of it?
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  We're in the infancy stage, everyone's trying to learn, right?
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  We've got multiple generations now in the workforce trying
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  to get their heads around it.
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  So I think there has to be this—we say this, you and I, Steve, have spoken
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  about this—this ability to lean into the unknown when it comes to AI and
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  test and test and test, and create these environments where we can do
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  that efficiently and effectively.
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  And the better we can do that, the better we can deploy it internally to drive
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  those operational efficiency gains.
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  With regards to the return on investment of those activities, it's hard to see,
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  but the CEOs and senior executives have to be diligent and thorough with regards
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  to how exactly they are deploying AI.
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  And I think you can also, in some respect, reverse engineer it.
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  Where is AI most applicable and practical to give us the best, most
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  efficient, most effective gains possible?
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  Steve Odland: Yeah.
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  But if you can deploy AI in all of these repetitive tasks and take out that
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  labor that is being used for these low intellectual kinds of jobs, it
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  does give you hopefully the ability to redeploy labor into higher-order work.
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  And that's essentially what happened through the '90s, and hopefully
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  can be then a source, but those are different skills than what
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  those people are doing today.
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  So you have to then deal with reskilling—another
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  whole set of challenges.
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  David Young: Yep.
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  And maybe with that realization, maybe the creation of new industries
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  and new businesses that are enabled to help upskill and reskill.
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  So I'm a big believer that its glass is half full and there should be optimism
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  behind it, as there has been in the past.
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  Steve Odland: Yeah, that's absolutely correct.
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  And so we'll see.
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  I mean, there's a lot of money being thrown at this, and they've got to
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  try a lot of different things, but it could be this great source.
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  Another thing that was impacting organizations is the government
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  shutdown that we went through.
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  But there's another possibility of going through this again at the end
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  of January, because the CR that went through is, again, only temporary.
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  It goes back to Washington not functioning properly in the Congress, not passing
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  budgets, and having regular order.
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  Is this ever going to end?
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  David Young: The government has passed the budget on time, since 1977, four times.
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  The last was in 1997.
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  So if we go on history, is it going to end?
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  No.
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  Very unlikely.
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  The hope is that the lessons can be learned and policymakers, hopefully,
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  can be more efficient and effective and talk collaboratively across the aisle
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  in recognition that this is having direct and indirect impact on citizens
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  and businesses and economic growth.
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  You're exactly right to say that, come early next year, we could be
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  in exactly the same situation that the US has been going through, the
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  longest shutdown in US history.
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  I'm hopeful we're not in that situation, and policymakers and decisionmakers
• 24:18
  have taken on board the political, economic, and social implications that
• 24:21
  have happened over the last few weeks.
• 24:22
  But businesses and CEOs, they should prepare for every scenario,
• 24:28
  as should individuals that could potentially go again without paycheck.
• 24:32
  So, there's scenario planning at every level, sadly, at the moment
• 24:37
  in life, whether it's at the government level, at the business
• 24:40
  level, and at the individual level.
• 24:42
  But yeah, the year will start off, 2026, in a precarious position
• 24:48
  knowing that they've got to finalize a budget for the year.
• 24:52
  Steve Odland: Yeah.
• 24:52
  And The Conference Board's tool, the Gray Swans tool, could be very
• 24:55
  useful to CEOs and business leaders.
• 24:58
  You can access that at our website, tcb.org, and just put
• 25:03
  gray swans into the search bar.
• 25:06
  But we have a tool that allows people to customize the kind of risks that
• 25:10
  would impact their company and industry and what they should do about it.
• 25:14
  So it could be useful.
• 25:15
  So David, to wrap up, what are the top two or three risks as the CEOs should
• 25:20
  be thinking about as they enter 2026?
• 25:23
  David Young: Yeah, so Steve, a couple of these, we've obviously
• 25:25
  talked about trade policy and tariffs to continue in the year ahead.
• 25:30
  And CEOs can't take that seriously enough.
• 25:33
  The second fiscal responsibility, debt, deficit, and the
• 25:37
  budget for the year ahead.
• 25:39
  And then the other challenge I think will be just the partisan divide.
• 25:43
  And this is not just in the US, this is around the world.
• 25:46
  This partisan divide, and how to bridge it, and what is the role of
• 25:50
  business in helping to facilitate that, to move the nation forward?
• 25:55
  It is, as we know, in everyone's best interest.
• 25:59
  And it does take nonpartisan, collaborative dialogues and discussions
• 26:04
  to come up with effective, long-term, sustainable policy decisions, and that is
• 26:08
  in the best interest of every individual, every company, and the nation as a whole.
• 26:14
  Steve Odland: Yeah, and business leaders should engage with The Conference Board.
• 26:17
  I mean, we're facing exogenous pressures like we've never seen before, in terms
• 26:22
  of impact on businesses, whether it's inflation, tariffs, trades, supply
• 26:27
  chains, geopolitical situations, on and on and on and on and on.
• 26:31
  And normally, you look at your company, your customers, your competitors.
• 26:36
  But more and more, it's the outside world, all of these other forces
• 26:39
  that are impacting the businesses more than ever before and hence, have
• 26:43
  created the greater risk profile.
• 26:46
  But we're here, and we exist to provide trusted insights for what's
• 26:50
  ahead for all of our members.
• 26:53
  David Young, thanks for being with us today.
• 26:55
  David Young: Thank you, Steve.
• 26:56
  And just to emphasize that last point, and we hear this across the CED Trustees,
• 27:00
  that they want that dialogue from a diverse range of backgrounds, whether it's
• 27:07
  academia and the university presidents, whether it's CEOs and also policymakers.
• 27:12
  And the more we can facilitate that at The Conference Board,
• 27:14
  the more we can move effective recommendations and solutions forward.
• 27:20
  Steve Odland: That's terrific.
• 27:21
  Well, thank you very much, and thanks to all of you for
• 27:24
  listening to C-Suite Perspectives.
• 27:26
  I'm Steve Odland, and this series has been brought to you by The Conference Board.