Latest / The Specific Jawns / Arraez Arrives

Transcript

Arraez Arrives · The Specific Jawns

• speaker-0: Hello and welcome everybody to the specific Johns Phillies Baseball Podcast, your elite source of all things Phillies Baseball. It is August 4th. This is our post trade deadline episode. ⁓ I think it's going to be a good one. Hope you have been enjoying our podcast. Our my man Pat Barker here ⁓ has ⁓ really moved us up in the world. We're not only on Spotify now, but also Apple Podcasts. Be sure to Like, subscribe, and share on any platform you choose. We are ⁓ we got a lot to talk about today, Pat. How are you? I haven't been here since ⁓ the All-Star Game. I was at the All-Star Game with our buddy Mike. ⁓ haven't been had a chance to be on the cast since. Hasn't been a great couple of weeks since the All Star Game. I think you'd certainly agree with that, but again, a lot to talk about since the trade deadline. What do got for me first? What what's the biggest splash that it that you're just harping on today? speaker-1: I don't even know anymore, man. I hate this I hate this team. I hate the fact that and I say that with all all love in my heart. I hate the fact that I I'm jealous of the guys who get the the radio guys who get to do this every day. 'Cause you get to lock in on the entire Phillies roller coaster ride and once a week is not enough because the way you and I and all the fans feel about this team fluctuates so wildly From moment to moment. And then God forbid you have a situation like last week where a a scheduling conflict prevented me from recording at the last second. I was ready to they were wrapping up a three and six homestand. We were ready to record, and at the last second I couldn't do it. And now I want to carry all that energy into this week, and then I watch Luisa Rise have two at bats and I'm just like I'm I'm looking for playoff tickets. I don't it's it's so difficult to prepare for a podcast when you don't know if you're gonna like or hate the thing when you hit record. speaker-0: Yeah, well ⁓ hopefully fans of the podcast can be as frustrated with us as we are with with the baseball team, because we are that inconsistent. But we've got a lot, ⁓ just let let's let's try to unpack the roller coaster just in in a in a tight say past ten days. Sure. So, like you said, three and six homestand, ⁓ against tough teams. And, you know, we we knew this was coming post All Star Break. They're gonna play, you know, the Mets division rivals, they suck, but Division Rivals, that's that never gonna be an easy series. And then we got the Dodgers and Yankees. And, you know, look every bit like the flawed team we've been talking about since the offseason, frankly. They they filled none of the holes that we wanted them to in the offseason. And, you know, I I a couple stats since just July first I was looking at. Bullpen, five point seven ERA. It's even worse in a tighter window. I think it was a seven ERA since the all-star break. ⁓ Kyle Schwarber hitting 214, three home runs, eighteen hits since July first. You know, we were riding high on him ⁓ going into the all-star break, home run leader. ⁓ he's got guys catching up to him, and he's just he's just having one of those funks that a true outcome type hitter, which he still is, ⁓ will have. ⁓ Bryce Harper hitting in the low two hundredth since July first. He's picked it up in the past week or so. ⁓ and you know, still getting no wins out of the fourth or s fifth spot in the rotation. ⁓ they did waste a good outing by Nola ⁓ two starts ago. But ⁓ yeah, you know, just every every gaping hole that we knew was there but was being, you know, covered up by, you know, some the Wheelers comeback and and Harper having a solid season, Schwarber on a tear, ⁓ and we haven't even talked yet about Trey Turner. ⁓ You know, just we knew going into the trade deadline certainly that there were there wasn't just that one piece to to to go after. Yeah. ⁓ I think I'd say that before the All Star break we talked about, you know, at least I prioritized a not not just a setup man, but a left handed setup man. I thought we could get that particular and and and be ready to go to the World Series. ⁓ you know, Brad Keller goes down, now I'll take either side. ⁓ speaker-1: Sure. speaker-0: But, you know, by the time we got to the deadline, it's like we need, yeah, we we probably need two good relievers. We need a right-handed bat, we need an outfielder, we need a starting pitcher, we need a starting pitcher who could maybe be a bullpen guy if we need him to. Should we be sellers? I mean, I think that's where we were two days ago. Should should we just, you know, pack it up on this thing, at least for this year, salvage the veterans that were locked in the big contracts with. speaker-1: Yeah. Yeah. speaker-0: ⁓ preserve some prospects and maybe shore up the farm system. speaker-1: That's the thing. The emotional roller coaster that I talked about is just that. It's emotional. And you ride high from game to game, from inning to inning, and you're on board one day and you're off board the next. But if you take time and actually look at the big picture view of what has happened here, the Phillies have very clearly defined who they are. Of course they went three and six against the good teams. They're not as good as those teams. Of course they're beating up on the nationals. They're better than them. The Phillies are exactly at the cream rises and it it ends up in the middle all the it's slightly above the middle. This team is exactly who I thought they were coming into the season. They're an eighty-eight win team. They're gonna make the playoffs probably, and they're not gonna be as good as the Dodgers, they're not gonna be as good as the Brewers, they're not gonna be as good as the Braves. Does that mean they can't beat those teams? No. Anything can happen in a short series, and that's kind of the beauty of baseball. But This team has gone up and down and up and down and up and down just to end up exactly where I thought they would be at this point in the season. They're not as good as those other teams. They are flawed, but other than maybe the Dodgers, so is every other team. And you just gotta hope that your guys kinda get hot at the right second. I that being said, ⁓ you know, coming off of the trade deadline, I don't know that they I I've never seen a team improve so much in one area while perhaps simultaneously sacrificing just as much on the other end of the ball. They decided to move four of their eight position players i like around in the middle of the season, which seemed completely unnecessary. The one they decided to leave there is the guy who is having like an epically all-time bad fielding season. And they did all of this not to accommodate prime Ozzie Smith on the field, but to accommodate a guy who shouldn't even be playing second base in the first place. speaker-0: I'm gonna stop I'm gonna stop you there. We we we have I I wanna trust me, I wanna rant about this ⁓ repositioning of players in the wake of this ⁓ rise trade. ⁓ but let let's let's let's go in sequence here. We we like you said, we we are we are ⁓ an above average team. Basically the same type of team we thought we'd be early in the season. Of course we were riled up thinking we could, you know, take the division, be ⁓ you know, get a first round by, etcetera. Anything can happen early in the season. And we thought the trade deadline might get us that one missing piece. ⁓ but they are ⁓ currently seven and a half games back from the Braves. ⁓ they're they they're in the eighth inning against the Nationals right now, winning four nothing ⁓ as of the time of recording. ⁓ Braves are playing the Marlins this week. You know, they're probably gonna be in that, you know, six to eight games back range by the end of of this week. A little too much if you look at the Phillies schedule, I think going out, they play a lot of good teams. ⁓ even the Inter League teams, they're gonna be playing the Rays at some point. ⁓ they got a Minnesota team that decided to be buyers rather than sellers coming up. ⁓ more division games, big series against the Braves in a week or two. so it it's gonna be, you know, I I think the division's probably out of reach. And I'm okay with that. They are currently tied for second in the wild card race with a lot of teams on their heels, and tied for second means basically tied for the last that you're squeaking in. To the playoffs right now. My question and what w you know, in in light of yesterday is did the Phillies get better all the flaws aside that we know are going to come with this trade and that predate this trade, these couple of trades? ⁓ and also take a little bit of a look around the league. What the rest of the N L did, we don't think get too in depth, but I think it's very fair to say the Cubs got much better. Yes. Added pitching that they desperately needed. just a c bunch of deals that just aren't big splashes, aren't going to make headlines, but make a lot of baseball sense and are going to make that team a true contender. ⁓ they might not overcome the Brewers, but they're definitely going to be in the playoffs. ⁓ the Braves got better in spots that they needed to. Added a little bit of back end pitching, ⁓ added ⁓ an outfielder, I believe it was Lane Thomas. ⁓ that that should, you know, add some some depth for them and they're they're cruising. I mean they they're they're they've been in good shape in in the driver's sheet seat from the beginning of the season. I think we got to within two and a half or three before the all star break, but that was it. ⁓ Brewers are very solid. Didn't make a lot of moves ⁓ but brewers can beat anybody because of the pitching they have and the style of baseball that they play. ⁓ you know I feel like we say that about them every year. ⁓ never quite broken into the world series, but there's no reason to think they wouldn't contend and have a better chance to contend than we would. So let's get to these couple of trades that Dave Dombrowski did pull the trigger on yesterday. Yeah. ⁓ first one, let's talk about the Brooks Rayleigh from from the Mets. Left handed reliever pretty good stats this year so far, even though he's in a disaster of a New York Mets baseball team. ⁓ one point nine six ERA. ⁓ forty strikeouts over forty one innings pitched ⁓ from the left side. I mean that that's that's the piece that we're gonna need to, you know, hopefully bridge from whatever to Duran. Yeah. ⁓ any comment on that? I mean that that just seemed like a no brainer. The Mets were selling everybody yesterday. you know, is there a reason not to think that he won't be, you know, the solid bullpen piece that we we lost in Brad Keller, at least thought that we were signing in Brad Keller. speaker-1: I mean, ⁓ other than the fact that any time you sign or trade for a reliever, you are there's a tacit unspoken acknowledgement that relievers go up and down, they fluctuate, they have great years, then they have bad years, and you know, he's one of the more consistent ones. ⁓ but there's always some inherent risk in signing a reliever just because they're so unpredictable. But no, I mean he's a on paper, a million times better than anything we had in kind of that middle relief role. And even if you include our air quotes high leverage guys right now, I think he slides right into being, maybe other endoran, the the best piece in the bullpen, depending on how you feel about Kirkring. So no, I think it's a I think it's a great move and we gave up ⁓ you know, relatively nothing to get him. Seems like a pretty standard two lottery tickets for a proven middle reliever deal. I like it. speaker-0: I agreed. Yeah, I I I think that's the one that no one can argue with whatsoever. speaking of just real quick, ⁓ the unpredictability of relievers, ⁓ Matt Strom just released by the Royals with a seven plus ERA. And you really don't know year to year with bullpen pieces. That's just the the the roll of the dice that you make. ⁓ next one up is gonna be the arise trade. And they got not just him but ⁓ another Reliever that has upside for this season. ⁓ he he he's projecting pretty well it ⁓ in spite of his four point two six ERA. We got Caleb Killian, ⁓ a ⁓ a right hander who might be the other guy ⁓ that that could be a potential setup man. I feel a hell of a lot better about these two names that I I just mentioned than I do about Orion Kirkring in any any situation. ⁓ and a lot of control over him. couple years, ⁓ believe five years of control over over that piece. You get Luisa Rice as a rental, a two-month rental. He is ⁓ we know that, or at least we we wanted ⁓ Dombo to be going after him in the offseason. Ended up with a one-year contract which which surprised a lot of people ⁓ but The the narrative that I'm hearing is that he really wanted to bet on himself as a second baseman. And he wanted to he was willing to take a prove it contract with a team that was going to put him in that position. ⁓ after playing first base for two years, ⁓ he was at second years before that with Florida. ⁓ but this is a guy that We could have had for nothing, essentially. We could have just signed them for the year. We could have made some defensive adjustments that we're about to talk about anyway now at the beginning of the season, when it would have made just as much sense, if not more, and would have given us a whole season to sort of cultivate guys in the positions that they're now going to be in. So Pat, I'll let you just I stopped you short on the the on the consequences of a rise, at least from the defensive side of the ball. ⁓ go off. speaker-1: Well I but I mean look, that's in order to be happy about this trade deadline, you have to ignore the elephant in the room, which is they filled holes that would have been much easier to fill with the s virtually the same players four months ago. That we spoke about ad nauseum. You were one of the main arise guys I knew. And I was not. Now I am firmly in a beggars can't be choosers scenario. ⁓ but he checks a lot of boxes that the rest of the team does not. Mainly the fact that he can make contact and ⁓ he's not a boring white guy. That's the part I was most fired up for at big hit tonight? Going yelling into the dugout and everything? Yeah, hook that up to my mails. And and by the way, the real deal, not that Bryce Harper manufactured running out to right field and taking a bow. I ⁓ bro, you were there three years ago. It's not what what are we doing here? ⁓ I I you know, ⁓ I I made a comment on the Phillies Instagram and right before I got on, ⁓ the you know, people started getting mad at me. ⁓ because I I just commented like ⁓ like this guy is so dramatic about everything. And some guys like, Yeah, we love it. He's better than you, you fucking dick. I'm like, Jesus Christ. Therapy. ⁓ But no, I I I ⁓ I'm happy with the Arise thing just because I I couldn't keep watching them lose in the same way. I feel like now they might lose in different ways. The defense absolutely got worse, but it wasn't that good to begin with, if we're being honest. I just the the part that's like so insane to me is that you know, you are moving your borderline gold glove second baseman, the best defensive player you have on the field. You're moving him to a corner infield position, which is far less valuable defensively for I mean, he'll be fine over there, but it's like that's a spot where you bury somebody who's not a good defender typically. Boom, third third to first is a lateral move. You're putting Harper back in the outfield, which I I don't feel great about that, but you could just put a rise at first and Harper and right but a rise is insistent and they said that they made it clear when they were trading him you know, shopping him around, he wants to play second base. So I g I get it just all seems so unnecessary. ⁓ but it's it's fresh blood. One thing I talked about on the last episode we did when you weren't here is like the season has peaks and valleys, and it felt like that Don Mattingley forty to fifty game thing had reached its apex, and it felt like the all-star game was the the high point and we were heading into a dip. And I ended up being right about that. Now I feel like you had to do something in order to start the upward mobility again, light a fire, and I you know, short of landing Tarek Scuble, I guess this is the best option out there on the market, even if it doesn't make the most sense on paper. I think on paper it would have made way more sense to get a Taylor Ward or somebody like that. But this one, ⁓ you know, has a higher upside, I guess. It just also has way more ways it could go wrong, I think. speaker-0: Yeah, ⁓ there's there's a couple things about this move that that you know, you gotta take everything with a grain of salt. We we're very unlikely to even if we get to them, we're we're not gonna beat the Dodgers. You know, certainly not in the state we were in two days ago. That that roster's just not gonna do it. ⁓ there's just something about the addition of a guy like a Raz, and this is why I've been clamoring for him for three years, frankly, ⁓ is how much of a difference differential he is within our lineup. We we are a lineup that you know, you face good pitching, all pr pretty much one to nine you become, you know, those true outcome hitters that that are, you know, just that's all you see now in baseball. ⁓ you're not gonna see guys just making contact, getting on base, fighting for that that extra bag. it it just doesn't happen with this lineup. They they look like they're ⁓ stuck in cement when they face good pitching. And there's no movement. It's either they're gonna catch one, catch a fastball in the zone and hit it out of the park, or they're gonna get shut out, you know, or they're gonna go seven innings without hitting anything and y you hope to find a a a you know, a setup man on an off day and maybe mash him for an inning and and maybe that's how you squeeze out a win. I we're all tired of that. ⁓ and and it's not gonna get any better. Like we're we're not gonna have that three week run where, you know, six of the nine guys are on a hot streak. Like it it just we haven't seen it yet since twenty twenty two. And we're not gonna see it now. Everybody is older. No one has gotten you know a new set of skills. What a rise does in that lineup is he creates movement. And it that's all I'm looking for. And I you know it's Baseball purism fine, but the difference that we already see in these first eight innings of the the game we just watched against the Nationals is already evident. He doesn't strike out, he works counts, he's not afraid of a two strike count, just his swing, he can hit lefties and righties, he doesn't ground into double plays. All of those things mean that when he comes up to bat, especially if you have any base runners, you're gonna have movement in the play. You're gonna have a chance to get one base, maybe an extra one. Something chaotic can happen. You can make them play defense against you. Just you force things that that the the the lineup as is just doesn't do. They're they're so easy and predictable. And just that little bit of chaos and skill that he brings, you know, advanced metrics might not show him to be such a valuable player as I see him, but I know what he can do in the context of this lineup. And it gives us a chance to do something crazy in October. It gives us a chance to have balls bounce our way and and series one by a hair that we didn't have two days ago. And I I would have had no interest in watching another playoff run with the Phillies in the state that they were prior to this this trade. speaker-1: Well, I mean look the the thing is like they yes, before the trade, they they're they're a tough team to watch. They're a tough team to watch. Even when they were on that incredible run, I ask myself frequently, is this team actually any good? Or is are we just dealing with smoke and mirrors here? And I still don't know the answer to that. The one thing I do know is that they have three really good starting pitchers. And if you look at their record in games that Sanchez, Wheeler, and Luzardo have started, it is elite. If you look at their record in games that anyone else has started, it is terrible. I'll circle back to that in a minute. But the point is, you know, those three pitchers would give them a chance, at least theoretically, to win any playoff series. Even against the Dodgers. I'm not saying it would be a great chance, but there would be a chance. But what a Rise does is he lengthens the lineup. Alec Bohm is gonna be. He's gonna drive me crazy no matter where you have him. But I'd rather have him hitting seventh than fifth. He's not down there yet, but he will be. He will be by the end of it. They have to move him down. I can't even fifth, I can't do this anymore. We gotta get him out of there. Put Real Muto there, anybody. Derek Hill, I don't care. Literally anybody get Alec Bohm out of the top five slots of the lineup. Brandon Marsh as a cleanup hitter is fine. Brandon Marsh as a six hitter is better. By adding another hitter in the top, it lengthens things, it it gives the lineup a new look. And it is bizarre that we have collectively decided because it's not just the Phillies, by the way. Luisa Rise was available to 30 teams, and he ended up getting one year and 12 million dollars despite having what three batting titles? He has he has an elite skill set. And it is very bizarre that baseball in its entirety just decided that this skill set is somehow useless now. I do not understand it. even if you wanna say we think we prefer to value on base percentage and, you know, slug and everything like that, the guy by virtue of a three thirty batting average is gonna have a pretty good on base percentage. Certainly better than you're getting out of a Justin Crawford, certainly better than you're getting out of a an Alec Bohm. Like the idea that nobody thought this guy could be an upgrade, is pretty bizarre to me and I'm I'm glad that he is on the team. ⁓ They still have massive holes. I think if we talk about the trade deadline, I think it's just as important to talk about the deals that they didn't make as it is to talk about the ones that they did. But my final to button this section up, my final thought, and then I want to hear what you have to say, the trades that they made, I I like them because Rayleigh is just an obvious yes for me. And then arise, why not? Gotta try something. That's my take on that. speaker-0: Yeah, I I definitely want to talk about the deals they didn't make too. ⁓ because my th there's basically two types of of ⁓ rosters you have to think about in baseball these days, especially if you're not, you know, a lock to win your division. You have to think about, you know, what does my full rotation look like to get me into the playoffs? And like you alluded to very ⁓ pointedly, you know, forty percent of our games are dog shit. Because we don't have a fourth or fifth starter. ⁓ games are lost within the first four innings and with with no chance of recovery. ⁓ but if I look at what we got yesterday and what could that translate to in a in a ⁓ a three, five, or seven game series, I see a lot more things to be confident about, or at least think that we have a a a fighting chance because of the three starters that we have, because I now am not looking at a abyss from the sixth inning to the ninth inning if if our starter gets knocked out at that point, ⁓ with just again, dog shit in the bullpen. I mean, Jonathan Boland has held it together, ⁓ but now I feel like we got two more guys and obviously I haven't seen them pitch in a Phillies uniform yet. But I now have hope that we can some somehow piece together those those couple of soft innings ⁓ to get to Duran and and win a game that we, you know, hopefully can build a lead in. ⁓ I think that the the the most telling thing was ⁓ what Dombo said, I believe I don't know if it was late last night or this morning. ⁓ he he literally said we we we just ran out of time to get a starting pitcher. ⁓ so you know it's it's at least validating to know that he was ⁓ seeing the same problem we were, that we probably should pick up a starter of some type. ⁓ whether it's with the intent of just not being Andrew Painter or Aaron Nola or someone who with upside, you know, could a allow us to have a long man come playoff time or or come September games when we need it. ⁓ there were guys out there that were gotten for very little. Once again, it always seems like it's it's the Giants and the Padres the past couple years that have just found things easy to to make in terms of transactions for players that we we just seem to just swing and miss on. I I don't understand it. I mean between the Arise contract, the Bader contract last year for the Giants, ⁓ multiple free agents that the Padres have been able to get for prospects, ⁓ that are all lottery tickets, you know, they picked up Casey Mys Robbie Ray for not much. You really look at these are prospect calls and who the hell knows if any of them will pan out. I think the Phillies farm system has a bad enough wrap as it should, ⁓ as being more likely, you know, a a a loser of a lottery ticket. But I you just wonder if Dombo has these conversations. Like the only thing we that was leaked out was what we offered for Scoobyl, ⁓ which I actually thought was maybe too much. Crawford, Gage Wood, and somebody else, ⁓ for a rental for a a starter when we already, you know, have the three that we have. ⁓ I don't know. It just it just feels like Dombo shows his ass sometimes with some of these quotes ⁓ after the fact. And I don't know I I he's lucky he even got what he did if if that's the kind of fumbling that he does. speaker-1: We ran out of time is like Dude miss me with that bullshit. I can't hear it, man. Yeah. Do you mean you ran out of time at the deadline or in the off season? Or because you realize there was so much time for you to get a guy. I mean we talked about it every week leading up to the season. They need another guy. And You know, everybody and look, I tend to get extra bitter because I live in LA and I gotta watch the Dodgers get every guy, and the Phillies are like, We couldn't get any of And the Dodgers are like, we got all of them. But like everybody's gonna point to Tarek Scupel going to the Dodgers, and I I I get it. I fully understand, right? The Dodgers needed another starter in early May. They went out and traded cash for Eric Lauer. He's made ten starts for them. He's undefeated. They have not lost in any of his starts. Wow. Now look, now I'm not saying it's that easy. You go out and get a guy and he turns into Sandy Kofa. I I I get it. But the point is they knew and this is a team with an abundance of resources that could have easily been justified in pulling up a C level prospect and being like, you fill the sixth spot in the rot because they have six people in the rotation. And we got Snell coming back, and we got Glasnow coming back, and we're gonna be fine, we're gonna win this division, running away no matter what, it doesn't matter. But they were like, no, let's go out and get a guy that can, you know, give us some innings and get us to where we need to be, and everything like that. And they went out and got a guy, and he did exactly that. And this entire time I have watched the Phillies go into this season. The plan this is the thing that drives me nuts, the plan. was to go into the season with Christopher Sanchez, Jesus Lazardo, Aaron Nola, whose ERA was six last year, Andrew Painter who has never thrown more than f forty-five innings in a season, Taiwan Walker, who has been washed since the moment you got him, and Zach Wheeler, who's coming off of a potentially catastrophic and unpredictable injury. That was the plan. And the plan was let's just hope it goes well. And you know what? The fact that Wheeler has come back and pitched as well as he has, it's gone better, frankly, than I think they could have expected. But they they did nothing to cover themselves in the event of this emergency. ⁓ not even an emergency, just a predictable situation where Walker still stinks, Nola still stinks, and Painter did not automatically blossom into the guy. So, ⁓ I hate to hear we ran out of time. You might have run out of time specifically on this, but if you hadn't painted yourself into this corner, it wouldn't be an issue. You had so much more time. speaker-0: Yeah. I I I just there's so many examples. We could probably list twenty five of them between the off season and this deadline that you could have picked up for peanuts. That would just shore up or give y they're lot those are lottery tickets too. If one out of four of them worked out, we we would, you know, have ⁓ you know five more wins than we do. ⁓ and have a a chance to, you know, keep that pace for the rest of the season. ⁓ you know The starting situation, so we have to look at what we have right now with the rotation. So Andrew Painter did have I'd say an impressive outing. Six innings the other night. ⁓ gave up two runs on the first two batters of the game. ⁓ had that the same mechanical look that he did when he was, you know, getting ⁓ sent down, ⁓ falling off the mound, coming across his body. ⁓ and he fixed it. ⁓ they they that one mound visit. Seemed to be a reminder. He he he made the tweak that they've talked about. It's actually quite easy to see visually once once you look for it. Yep. ⁓ and he he carried it through six innings. And I'll I'll I'll sit on that hope. ⁓ I think he starts again tomorrow. ⁓ but yeah, we're we're gonna that that's what we got. There there really is no other option for a fifth starter. And like I said, we're hanging on to the last playoff spot right now. I don't wanna make every fifth day a scheduled loss because I'm already dealing with every fourth day Aranola. Yeah. so, you know, do you think we can string enough wins to to keep this pace? I I mean, there are other teams out there that can get that can catch fire. There there's the Arizonas of the world. ⁓ I I am nervous about missing the playoffs. I if if that's the speaker-1: Right. speaker-0: starting rotation situation we're gonna be in for the rest of the season. speaker-1: Yeah, and that's that's assuming that those top three guys continue to pitch at that level. Yep. I mean you know, ⁓ that seems like a big ask of those guys. ⁓ but also I have to assume there is gonna be some positive regression, some You know, scenario where somebody has a good few weeks, maybe it's Andrew Payner. I have to assume that even if you just ride out Nola and Painter through the end of the year, their ERAs are not gonna be six and seven respectively. I maybe they will and I certainly would not have bet on that. I I if I was in Dombo shoes I would have gotten another starter by any means necessary. It seems like they were like we were in on Scoobyl and then I guess that's it. I think it's ridiculous that they are relying on Nola or Painter. That being said, if they're relying on Nola and Painter, they're not gonna continue to win games at a twenty-five percent clip or whatever they've been doing with those guys. It's just there's too much talent in the lineup. They're gonna accidentally win more than twenty-five percent. So But I am I am worried about the the playoffs. I don't love a lot of the teams in the wild card race outside of the Cubs. I think there's a lot of teams that are deeply flawed. But you know how this is, man. Every year one or two teams in that wild card race is gonna get hot at the end. And it's either gonna be the Phillies or it's gonna be somebody else. And you know, it's just it's a crapshoot. At this point There's really not a lot to kind of break down going forward. There's not much you could do. You can move the the puzzle pieces around a little bit, but it's still gonna f form the same picture. I mean, we just gotta hope against hope. Because Lord knows that's what Dave Dombrowski is doing. If his strategy is to close his eyes and pray, who am I to come up with a different one? speaker-0: It it couldn't be more clear that he is doing it, may maybe even more naively than we are. he did make a comment an another one just to to tie up the Dombo thing. ⁓ you know, ⁓ letting us know that, you know, Aaron Nola ⁓ specs out as the seventy fifth best pitcher in baseball. And what are we to complain about? Not not even gonna go any deeper into that, but speaker-1: Didn't I didn't hear that quote, seventy fifth by what what metric? speaker-0: It's by some metrics I think he said. I don't even think he pointed out anything in particular. Sure. ⁓ but yeah, seventy fifth best pitcher and let's let's ⁓ let let's just be proud of that. ⁓ what rank he is but in payroll, but speaker-1: With statistics and rhetoric like that, I I look forward to Dombrowski's presidential run in twenty thirty two. speaker-0: Couldn't agree more. Or let him go build a new franchise in Nashville, whatever his plan is. Yeah, so I I I tying up the starting pitching thing, ⁓ a couple little scares have happened in the past couple weeks. ⁓ I I worry about Sanchez and Wheeler having dead arm lulls that are long enough ⁓ at any point in the season to, you know, put us on the edge of missing the playoffs. I mean, that's a concern. Two starts ago. Wheeler's velocity was down about three miles an hour on his fastball. He was getting just shelled. ⁓ you know, he he obviously was cool and collected afterwards, didn't didn't sound any alarms. ⁓ but it it was stark enough to think i is is he cooked or is he in a dead arm spot where we gotta rest him for he's thirty-six years old, he's coming off an insane surgery. that that people don't usually come back and pitch to this level. Right. ⁓ so that was a scare. He came back for that goofy ⁓ rain delay game in Baltimore. ⁓ looked like he was true to form in the first two innings. ⁓ that I think we're all just gonna say, okay, that that's who he is and that's who he'll continue to be. But I I'm gonna be a little worried about that. I'm gonna be watching his first two innings moving forward, no doubt. ⁓ and same thing with Sanchez. I think we we both kinda hit the panic button on a couple starts in the past six weeks or so. his past two, I believe, he's looked quite good. But yeah, we just can't afford that. And that that sucks to be in that spot. I mean, you wanna whip your horses in October, but you don't wanna have to whip them in August and September too. ⁓ you'd like to have speaker-1: They they they put themselves there. And not just by the things that we talked about earlier. ⁓ it's kind of an embarrassment that nobody in Triple A is like really capable of coming up and ⁓ making a spot start and ⁓ you know, keeping the team in the game. Like this is a it it's an organizational failure from top to bottom. But yeah, I mean let's just be very, very clear here. If any of those three guys, Sanchez, Wheeler, or Luzardo, miss any time, we're fucked. Yeah. We're fucked. speaker-0: And we've been saying this since January when it was clear they weren't going to do much else in the offseason. I mean we it it's and it's incredible how healthy this overall team has been. We've talked about this before. ⁓ they they they don't deserve to be as successful as they've been the past couple of years with the level of health they've had. speaker-1: And and li listen, I I regret the fact that we were not able to record during the the time period where Harper was calling out Dombo and being like, We need help. and You know, that was in response to Dombo calling out Howard or ⁓ Harper with the not elite thing. I have to say that has been a twist on the season that I did not expect. At the beginning of the year, I was like, ⁓ I know this. This is twenty twelve. This is the twenty twelve Phillies. They're cooked. ⁓ it kind of snuck up on us a little bit, couple injuries, they got old, they're cooked, they're done. And then Mattingly came in and they started winning a lot. And I'm like, well, this isn't twenty twelve, but I can't figure out what it is. Like I know I've seen it before, but I can't put my finger on it. And then I realized exactly what this season is. ⁓ And you know my wife, lovely woman. She's great. ⁓ she is one of those ⁓ like ⁓ mentally ill people that ⁓ and I could say that because she doesn't listen to this podcast, so it's fine. ⁓ she watches Bravo all day. She is obsessed with it, and she ⁓ she goes to the conventions, she waits in lines to meet these lunatics, and then she sends me studies that show that people who watch Bravo actually have a higher intellect than people who d and I have to pretend like that's normal. I'm like, ⁓ yeah, of course, yeah, yeah, yeah. But in in my head I'm like, ⁓ she is she's completely insane, right? But I I've seen enough of these shows to know that that's what this year's Phillies have been. They are the real housewives of Philadelphia. I've never quite experienced this with a Philly team before. and it's different and I don't hate it. ⁓ but it's just weird. I mean, Harper is so dramatic about everything. You know, and and it's all manufactured too. That's the thing. These these reality shows, like, they're not real, you know, like that. Like the producers have to go to them and be like, hey, you know, ratings are down. It would really be nice if you threw a glass of wine in your friend's face tonight. Not telling you you have to, but like, just get loaded and see what happens. And you know, that is what this Phillies team feels like. Everything Harper does feels ⁓ pre-produced. You had the Castellanos thing, which by the way, he's he's the one that doesn't need the production note. He's just he's he's crazy. They they came to him and they were like, Yeah, if you ca he's like, I got it. I got just hit record, I'll be fucking insane. So between the Castellanos Rob Thompson thing at the beginning of the year. Then you have Dombrowski and Harper. It felt like Dombrowski was forcing it to like push Harper's buttons. Then you have the normal, docile the housewife, Zach Wheeler, who's like, Well, now I'm pissed about everything. And how dare Don Mattingly take me out at four and two thirds? And how dare you guys not put me on the all-star team? And he starts and I didn't get to say this at the time because by the time we recorded, I'm like, it doesn't matter. Why am I gonna say this? But he was acting like a psycho over that all-star thing. We all pretended like he was justified in all of his actions. He wasn't. He was he looked insane. I'm glad he didn't pitch in the all-star game. He forced Mattingley into a corner where Mattingley had to sit there and be like, No, I would love it if he pitched on Sunday and then in again in the All-Star game, coming off Thoracic Outlets syndrome. Nobody wanted that. But if Mattingly didn't do it, then Wheeler would be like, I've earned Mattingley's support. It's been so dramatic the entire time. All all the way down to today. Bryce Harper taking a bow and right field and it just feels like ⁓ my god, I can't wait for the reunion with Andy Cohen at the end of the year. it's it's kind of embarrassing to watch, but as long as they win, I'm fine with it. speaker-0: Y you're making me so happy with this rant. I ⁓ so surprised by it. I love it. Shout out to Tiff for for, you know, getting you attuned to reality TV the way that she did. ⁓ my ⁓ I I've I've talked about this a lot the past couple months ⁓ with my lady friend. ⁓ she's a a a Bravo aficionado as well. ⁓ and I've had the same realizations that you have, not necessarily the comparison to the Phillies of this season, but And we don't have to go too far into this and I I'll I'll I'll duck when I say this in some audiences. Sports for for guys like us and Bravo for our lady counterparts, it's the same fucking soap opera. It's the same thing. There's there's it's it's low stakes in in in real terms, but you can get it as invested and let it affect your day as much as you want. ⁓ and it does. And it's just as interesting if you do get into the characters and the plot lines. ⁓ it's incredible. That was that was awesome, Pat. I I I love that. And they are like that this year. I want to get into Bryce speaker-1: Let me let me let me let me just say real quick to to piggyback off that just real quick. For me to sit here on the podcast and be like, ⁓ my wife is mentally ill, tongue in cheek, and I'm not I'm not saying I don't mean it, but by the same token, she could easily say that about me. speaker-0: Yeah, absolutely. speaker-1: Do you remember the week where you were just a total dick to me the entire week? And I'm like, Ryan Howard tore his Achilles on the last play of the season. And in my That justifies it. So I'm just as insane as she is. It's just in a different lane. And, you know. speaker-0: Yeah. It's it's just a a beautiful way that we've we've resolved the battle of the sexes right here on this podcast. Bryce Harper, I'm glad you brought him up before that we got into reality TV. ⁓ a couple things about what how he fits into this post trade deadline configuration and the decisions that have been made or not made. I I I want to say, look, you know how we we all we both feel this way about. Harper, everything he does is calculated, performative in some measure. But it is tough to argue that on the field he he gives exactly what he's paid to give and and and then some, I'd say, over the course of his contract so far. I am impressed that he, you know, got right out in front. In addition to saying we need help, was like, I'll move to right field. I'll move back to right field, volunteered to do that. I don't think there's a lot of guys in his role on their team that would offer that. And when asked, would would say yes. ⁓ so he deserves credit for just always kind of being up for you know, putting him wherever in the field to help the team. I appreciate that. But I do wonder if it one was to take the heat off his boy Trey Turner. Or if it even if it wasn't with that motive, forced a couple of decisions here that are the wrong ones. ⁓ the biggest concern I have first and foremost, just in isolation, Harper moving to right field. He's thirty-three years old now. He's been playing first base. He moved to first base because he had Tommy John surgery, because he threw his arm out in right field. ⁓ he's always had a history of being too aggressive at the wrong times in right field. I remember way back in the day, Larry Boa was working for the Nationals when he was brought up as a rookie and screaming at him for ⁓ hit ramming into the wall in practice. Like just telling him, Yo, buddy, you gotta understand how to throttle this because we are invested in you and that's not what you gotta do. Yeah. I don't need him running into the wall, you know, unless it's a a a game winning thing in in in a pivotal game, it's just not worth it. This is our this is the cornerstone of our franchise, no matter what your opinion is of him. And we're putting him out with way more risk of injury, ⁓ at at a time when I'm not sure it's even the best move for this team this season. So there we are. I don't know what your thoughts are about, you know, his his motives there, ⁓ but I just think it's the wrong move. And then we can get to the rest of the moves that that kinda falls dominoes behind that. speaker-1: Yeah, I mean I I agree that it's the wrong move. As far as his motives go, I think it's twofold. I think ⁓ I think some of it is selfless, but I think he enjoys being selfless because of how it makes him look, which in turn is speaker-0: Yeah, it's there's no altruism here. speaker-1: Yeah. Yeah. ⁓ and and you know, I i I I get it. It's whatever. Like at the end of the day he was willing to move and he certainly didn't have to be. But it is a hundred percent the wrong move. Here is what I would hope. And maybe Bryce is one of these guys who's like, look, if you move me to right field, I want to play right field the rest of the season. I don't want you moving me back and forth. But I still think there is a world where Ryan De La Cruz or Derek Hill gives you just as much offensively as you're getting out of Alec Bohm and allows Bryce Harper to remain at first. So what I would love to see over these next few weeks, I give Harper a couple starts at first. And put one of those other guys in right field. If Harper is amenable to that, like I say, if he behind closed doors was like, look, I just want I don't want to go back and forth. I get it. I respect that. But like to me, that is I would much rather have Bryce at first and just try to ride a hot hand and write. And i i I I I'm s I'm so over Alec Boone. That's mostly what ⁓ speaker-0: Yeah, it it goes back to what you were saying about Bohm. It i it I can't have him in the fifth hole. ⁓ I I don't see any reason not to try to ride a Dela Cruz or a h I mean Hill's hitting more home runs than Bohm is too. I mean, but like you put those guys in the five spot, especially Dela Cruz, if he's, you know, doing well i in that given week, I mean he's got the pop that you want in the five hole. That that's that's the guy that you want there. In that situation. You don't want Alec Bohm who is still grounding in the double plays and can't hit the ball out of the ballpark. ⁓ speaker-1: I'm over it and and frankly, even if you get ⁓ the same pr exact production out of ⁓ you know, the the ⁓ merry-go round of right fielders that you're getting out of Bohm, you are you know, you're gaining a lot defensively by moving Harper back to first. So I look I I have a feeling it's not gonna happen. I think that they are they're all in on the Harper and right field thing. but in the event that let's say Arise, you know And I guess next year Bohm is gone regardless. And even if you re-sign re-sign a rise, you can move Harper back to the infield. I just ⁓ it seems like so many of these moves were made to appease Luisa Rise, Trey Turner, and Alec Bohm. And it was like we're we're bending over backwards for kinda the wrong guys. And I'm not sure that it makes our team better. Tonight the Phillies go into the ninth inning with a five nothing lead. And Harper comes out for defensive purposes. If nothing else, move him into first base and take out Alec Bohm for defensive purpose. I can't have Bryce Harper coming out of playoff games. speaker-0: That's crazy. Yeah. That shit crazy. speaker-1: ⁓ yeah, we gotta we gotta we gotta do something about that. Will they? No. I don't think they will, but they they should. speaker-0: And wha how do you feel about the treatment of Bryson Stott? I I I I I'm just like befuddled by how passed over he is for Trey Turner for ⁓ I've heard a million reasons they want to wait until this ⁓ off season. They they they don't like the way that the precedent that sets. I I don't even know what people are talking about anymore. Like w bending over backwards to keep Trey Turner at shortstop. When Bryson Stott is a better shortstop, and shortstop is the most important defensive position on the baseball field, why keep him at second? Why keep Trey Turner at short when there's just so many other options that would make us a better defensive team and not lose anything in the lineup? I I don't get it. speaker-1: I think it has to be that they have absolutely zero confidence that Trey Turner can switch to the outfield in the middle of the season. speaker-0: Did but did they also have the same the same lack of confidence that he could play second? I mean, I I've been saying this for three years also. Why aren't they smart? Understood. But I'm saying even before this, I mean we we didn't talk about it much during the season, but in the off season we certainly did. I just don't I really don't get it. I can't fathom why you wouldn't have those two flip if you're trying to win baseball games. It it makes no sense to me. speaker-1: Arise is playing second. For sure, I don't view it necessarily as disrespect to Bryson Stott. I think the reality of the situation is, and I hate to say this because Bryson Stott was one of my ⁓ you know, Toyota picks to click or whatever the fuck in the offseason. Like I I expected of the three daycare guys, I didn't expect it to be Marsh, I thought Stott was gonna be the one who took the step forward. But the fact of the matter is, he's been a big leaguer for five seasons now. He has not really taken any steps forward ⁓ on the offensive side of the ball. Obviously he's a good fielder, but when you're a good fielder who hits two fifty with a seven hundred OPS, you know what you are? You're a utility guy. Or or speaker-0: Or at least a middle infielder. You're not a corner infielder with those numbers. speaker-1: Listen, I yeah, I no, I I agree. ⁓ you're weakening i if you look at the production you're now getting out of different positions, it's like you have an underachieving third baseman, you have an underachieving first baseman, you just weaken yourself ⁓ you know, across the board in that way. Yeah. ⁓ but if you are going to be you know, I I thought Bryson Stott ceiling was an all star level everyday second baseman. It turns out His ceiling might be Tommy Ed. His ceiling might be a guy who is very useful and every winning team wants him, but he is not one of the main guys on any of the rosters. And if that's what he is, that's fine. But I can't sit here and be like, ⁓ it's disrespectful to him. He had a chance in my mind over the last five years to improve his game and make himself undeniable to the point where it's like, well, we got our second baseman for the next decade and nothing's gonna change that. He didn't do that. So he's kind of the odd man out. I don't think it makes the team better, but I don't view it as some like slight to Bryson Stott or think that he deserves better. speaker-0: Fair. Fair. On the other side of the ball, in the wake of the Arise trade, is probably the last thing we should talk about here. ⁓ the batting order. What what what would you want ideally? We've talked about this on numerous text threads. ⁓ we obviously have the first glimpse of some kind of plan on tonight's lineup, which by the way, let's just talk about the top four. They had Schwarber leading off, Trey Turner in the two hole. Bryce Harper in the three and Luisa Rice in cleanup. I have a lot of opinions about this, as I'm sure you do. ⁓ how would you be configuring those four guys? 'Cause it's pretty clear that those should be the top four in some order. speaker-1: Yeah. I'm so sick of talking about the batting order because I just they're not gonna do any of it anyway. So it's like I I can't think of any exercise that feels more futile. That being said, let's do it. ⁓ tonight was a weird one because they faced a left handed starter who and I missed the first couple innings. ⁓ I assume was an opener and Lattel Zach Lit Lattel was the bulk guy. speaker-0: Yeah, they gave him three batters, the the the opener. ⁓ they brought Lattel in and he Lattel ⁓ by the time I left the T V to record, he'd retired ten of our guys in a row. speaker-1: So typically you know that's gonna be the scenario. So it's tough for me to evaluate this lineup, specifically the fact that they had Brandon Marsh hitting seventh. In other words, if they had just been starting Zach Lattell in a more traditional sense, would Marsh have been higher up in the order? I sure hope so. ⁓ What I would say is Marsh has proven this year that he can hit lefties. He's certainly fallen off with that recently, but he has at least shown that he deserves to be, in my mind, an everyday player. Schwarber mashes lefties, so it's not an issue. A Rise hits lefties. I don't want to have ten lefties in a row, but like, you know, to me, I would go four out of the top five spots are lefties, and I would put Turner in the three hole to break him up. ⁓ that would be my move. Simply because that means ⁓ because i ⁓ a left handed reliever has to face three batters. So whether you bring him in for the top of the lineup, which to me would be a rise leading off, Schwarber hitting second, ⁓ Turner third, and then Harper fourth, Marsh fifth, if you bring in a lefty to face either of those left handed lanes, a rise and Schwarber, or Harper and Marsh, he is going to have to face Either Trey in the three hole or Ryomuto or Boehm or whoever you end up putting sixth. ⁓ you're kind of forcing their hand a little bit by doing that. I think it makes more sense to have a rise towards the top of the lineup. ⁓ but they hit him, you know, cleanup today, which is an indicator to me that that's probably where he's gonna end up. But that would be my ideal lineup. ⁓ a rise, Schwarber up top. ⁓ and you could flip flop ⁓ if you necessary. Put Schwarber in the three hole because other than speed, Schwarber ⁓ excuse me, Turner doesn't really possess anything that makes him more of a lead off hitter than a three hole hitter. ⁓ he kinda hits like a three hole hitter when he's going good, and when he's going bad he hits like a nine hole hitter, so what difference does it make? ⁓ so I'd put him third and then I would put ⁓ I would put You know, Harper and Marsh four and five and then kind of rod ride the hot hand at six and then pray for seven, eight, and nine. speaker-0: Okay. Sound sound logic. I ⁓ you know, I I I just can't fathom why Schwarber wouldn't be behind the guys getting on base in front of him. I d I I'm so sick of solo home runs on this team and it's been that way for years now. I just feel like more than any other squad, we we we just hit ⁓ out with no ducks on the pond. ⁓ and a guy like a rise and Turner when he's on and Harper, they get on base. ⁓ and I just it just the the basic logic of that ⁓ will never be overridden for me. ⁓ I would love my ideal ⁓ batting order is ⁓ is Trey followed by Harper in the two hole, Arise in the three hole, Schwarber cleaning up. I think that ⁓ limits the f the the the solo home run ⁓ you know, as being the best outcome ⁓ in a given inning. ⁓ I like the chaos that a rise can bring in the three hole with Turner and and or Harper in front of him on the base pass, ⁓ and leaving Schwarber who doesn't need protection. I I I just I trust Kyle Schwarber when he is swinging it right, lefty, righty, any situation will get a hold of one ⁓ no matter what. So that's what I want to see, but like you said, we're not speaker-1: Who it's who is fifth in your lineup? speaker-0: Fifth in my lineup is like a Della Cruz. ⁓ truly. I I you know, whoever that guy is in that given week, and I do hope it's Della Cruz. I was kinda high on him. I was glad they signed him in the offseason. ⁓ yeah, just that, you know, Masher who, you know, you just gotta be careful of you y you pitch around Schwaber, you might be punished. ⁓ I don't think there's any thought of that when you pitch around Schwaber to get to an Alec Bone. So that's that's a situation I want to avoid. ⁓ lefty righty is really out the door these days, ⁓ at least with this team. ⁓ and we do have a couple guys who are lefties who hit both sides. ⁓ and you know, we just gotta appreciate that and and utilize it as best we can. But that's where I am with the batting order. speaker-1: Yeah, and and to be to be clear, I'm operating from a place of like ⁓ I've given up on the idea that they ever want Kyle Schwarber to hit anything other than a solo homer. I don't get the rationale, but that seems to be what they want. ⁓ take my lineup if we're going with I could do whatever I want and flip flop Harper and Schwarber. I got Harper two, Turner three, Schwarber four. I do still think it's important to break up the lefties, not because I don't think that any of those guys can't handle lefties, but more because I want the lefty to have to you know, it happened out here a couple years ago when they were originally I forget the exact thing, but they they moved Freddie Freeman in the lineup. And they actually moved him back to like sandwich in between two righties, because I think he was hitting like right after Otani or something like that. And I remember Dave Roberts' quote is, If you bring in a righty, you have to pay the Freddie Freeman tax. Right. speaker-0: It's all about forcing that move. Exactly. speaker-1: So I I I think that ⁓ I think that that would be the if they had anybody that I felt like was a true platoon masher of lefties and Edmundo Sosa has been this at at times, he has not been this this year, so it's kinda useless. But yeah, then to me, sure, ⁓ the you know, throw Marsh kinda like in there and just be ready to pinch hit for him if if necessary. That's another thing that I wish they had gotten at the trade deadline. I look at the Cubs getting a guy like Tyrone Taylor for for nothing. And I'm just like ⁓ just like that seems like something every ⁓ every contender should have is a guy who it's like, your only job is to hit lefties. And maybe Derek Hill can be that guy. I don't I don't I don't know. ⁓ but I guess I guess we'll see. ⁓ I think the important thing is no matter what we want, they will not do it. And and and the other thing that I'll hope for, I'll just say this, regardless of what the batting order is, I thought Bryce Harper came out and had two really strong plate appearances tonight. Maybe the The fresh blood of having Luis Arise behind him gives him new life and makes him approach things differently. Trey Turner had three hits. I won't chalk that up to Arise because I think he is just one of the streakiest players, Turner, that we've ever seen. And he's on a hot one right now, so just ride that as long as you can. but it did seem to transform that middle of the lineup. So my hope is that regardless of the order, you know, a rise makes everybody around him a little bit better. speaker-0: Yeah, just by virtue of looking at pitches. ⁓ I just think it gets the guy on deck and a different mindset. I I really do think that that kind of stuff happens in the course of a game. ⁓ I I just I find such value in that, whether that's on paper or not. We are over the hour mark, Pat. It's been a fucking blast, as always, but this is th there's just you know, it what more can you ask for if you're not gonna have a a a a true, you know, World Series favorite, at least something that could happen. ⁓ some things to get excited about, some new characters to to ⁓ watch next episode, ⁓ to keep that metaphor going. At any rate, ⁓ we are the specific Johns podcast. I hope you do like, subscribe, and share ⁓ on whatever platform you see fit, whether it's Spotify, YouTube, Apple Podcasts, etc. ⁓ thanks so much for joining us. We will be back next week, my buddy Pat and I signing off. Go fills. speaker-1: Go fills.