Latest / Drawn of History / Philosopher Nick Bostrom on the Uncertainty of AI(M4A_128K)

Transcript

Philosopher Nick Bostrom on the Uncertainty of AI(M4A_128K) · Drawn of History

• 0:01
  Speaker 1: The Joe Rogan experience.
• 0:03
  Speaker 2: It's just so strange how quickly it snuck up on
• 0:06
  Speaker 2: us and that there's two narratives that we hear. The
• 0:10
  Speaker 2: one narrative is we're in real trouble and that this
• 0:12
  Speaker 2: thing is going to take over every aspect of society
• 0:15
  Speaker 2: and it's essentially going to be a superior life force,
• 0:18
  Speaker 2: a superior intellect that exists amongst us that we created.
• 0:22
  Speaker 2: And we don't think that's wise. And then there's the
• 0:25
  Speaker 2: other side that is saying things like what Elon says,
• 0:29
  Speaker 2: where he's saying we're going to have universal high income.
• 0:33
  Speaker 2: It's going to be so much prosperity that no one's
• 0:35
  Speaker 2: ever going to have to toil again. There'll be no
• 0:37
  Speaker 2: more third world countries. There'll be no more poverty. Like
• 0:40
  Speaker 2: we can eradicate poverty with the resources that we have
• 0:43
  Speaker 2: on earth. And we can change what it means to
• 0:46
  Speaker 2: have to work, like just to provide yourself with food
• 0:50
  Speaker 2: and housing. That's all going to be easy and free.
• 0:53
  Speaker 2: And then everything else is going to be you have
• 0:55
  Speaker 2: to find a purpose in your life. My problem is,
• 0:59
  Speaker 2: and I love Elon, but the people who have that
• 1:01
  Speaker 2: perspective are all making money off AI. They are all
• 1:06
  Speaker 2: invested like heavily. Mark Andreessen, all these people that have
• 1:10
  Speaker 2: this rosy view of it, they're all invested heavily into it.
• 1:15
  Speaker 2: So when someone like you, who's not necessarily in that camp,
• 1:19
  Speaker 2: that is more of a true objective analyst of what's
• 1:24
  Speaker 2: going on. When you have a positive aspect or a
• 1:27
  Speaker 2: positive viewpoint of it, I get a little more excited.
• 1:30
  Speaker 1: Yeah, well, I mean, the truth is we don't know
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: how it will pan out. So, I mean, I think
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: there are these scenarios where we unlock this enormous boost
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: both to economic productivity, but then, you know, across medicine, entertainment, environment, travel,
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: all kinds of things. And like a tsunami of wealth
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: just kind of flows through and lifts all boats. And
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: then the idea of human work becomes an anachronism and
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: where you have machines that can do everything that we
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: can do physically and mentally and do it much better
• 2:08
  Speaker 1: and cheaper. And so I think in those scenarios where
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: this really works, the transformation is a lot deeper. I mean,
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: so that kind of layers to the onion. So, like,
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: the most superficial level is, well, they automate your job,
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: so what are people going to.
• 2:24
  Speaker 2: What are they going to do for purpose?
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: Well, that comes a little bit deeper. First, like, the
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: most superficial level is people just wonder, where will I
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: get the job if the robot replaces me? And then
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: the superficial level of that conversation, I think, is, well,
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: you need to retrain workers so they can work in other... fields,
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: and maybe there needs to be, I don't know, employment
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: insurance whilst they are being retrained or something like that.
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: But once you think through where this ultimately leads, you
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: think it's not just a few jobs, I think, but
• 2:51
  Speaker 1: it's really everything that humans can do to a good approximation,
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: with maybe the exception being where the consumer has a
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: direct preference that the particular product or service be done
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: by human like priest prostitute and politician um those might survive.
• 3:13
  Speaker 2: Well politician hopefully not hopefully ai can handle that all
• 3:17
  Speaker 2: without any corruption.
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: Yeah but somebody's got to take credit for.
• 3:20
  Speaker 2: It this is true and code it yeah it's um.
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: Um And so then you get to these more profound questions,
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: I think, about meaning and purpose and what does a
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: human life look like at technological maturity. Right.
• 3:38
  Speaker 2: Also, what is experience? Does experience have to be measurable?
• 3:43
  Speaker 2: Do you have to touch it? Do you have to
• 3:46
  Speaker 2: measure it and weigh it? Or is virtual experience still experience?
• 3:52
  Speaker 2: Like if you have a very full and enjoyable and
• 3:55
  Speaker 2: fulfilling virtual life, Is that enough? You know what I mean?
• 3:59
  Speaker 2: Do you have to do everything in the material world
• 4:03
  Speaker 2: or can you find happiness in a virtual world that
• 4:10
  Speaker 2: doesn't currently exist but we could clearly see the technology
• 4:14
  Speaker 2: if it expands? There's going to be the possibility of
• 4:20
  Speaker 2: experiencing a matrix-type reality.
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I think I see where you're going. But, yeah,
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: I mean, I think, like, different strokes for different folks.
• 4:29
  Speaker 1: If you imagine a world where presumably these virtual worlds
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: will be very rich and deep and fascinating, but some
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: people might just like the idea of, you know, climbing
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: the real Mount Everest rather than, you know, being in it.
• 4:42
  Speaker 2: Most certainly. But, however, there could come a time where
• 4:48
  Speaker 2: people are locked out of regular reality. Like, this is
• 4:51
  Speaker 2: worst-case scenario with A.I., is that you have your needs
• 4:56
  Speaker 2: taken care of, but there is no purpose. There's nothing
• 5:00
  Speaker 2: to do. There's nothing to do because AI is taking
• 5:02
  Speaker 2: care of all aspects of society. Other than recreation, there's
• 5:06
  Speaker 2: nothing to do. And then this one recreation comes along
• 5:09
  Speaker 2: that's not reality, but it's way more fulfilling and exciting
• 5:12
  Speaker 2: than any other aspect of reality. And an example of
• 5:16
  Speaker 2: that would just be in a very minor way, your
• 5:21
  Speaker 2: phone provides you with that sort of an escape. And
• 5:23
  Speaker 2: it's not even that thrilling, and yet it's massively addictive.
• 5:28
  Speaker 2: People are on their phones six hours a day. If
• 5:31
  Speaker 2: we come up with a virtual reality that's way more
• 5:35
  Speaker 2: exciting than regular reality, everyone's going to hop on in. Yeah.
• 5:40
  Speaker 1: I mean, I think to some extent this will maybe
• 5:45
  Speaker 1: be the case whether you go the virtual path or
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: the physical path. I mean, you could imagine a future
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: where there are, like, resorts and people are sort of
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: lying in beach chairs. sipping drinks all day long and
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: like that's also a kind of checking out.
• 5:57
  Speaker 2: Right yeah well that yeah that's not fulfilling you know
• 6:01
  Speaker 2: what the thing about a virtual reality is you don't
• 6:05
  Speaker 2: have to even live within our physics I mean you
• 6:08
  Speaker 2: can fly you can do anything.
• 6:10
  Speaker 1: It's a larger space of possibilities but either way it
• 6:12
  Speaker 1: could be like a passive existence in physical reality where
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: you're like launching at the beach or it could be
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: like a video game or in video games like it
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: could have like really intense every straining every fiber to
• 6:22
  Speaker 1: try to succeed in this virtual environment or like one
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: where you're just kind of floating on some cloud in
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: a drug-like state.
• 6:29
  Speaker 2: But I don't think people are going to be interested
• 6:31
  Speaker 2: in that because just the way the human mind works,
• 6:34
  Speaker 2: like what kind of video games are people attracted to?
• 6:37
  Speaker 2: It's because a video game is essentially an approximation of that.
• 6:41
  Speaker 2: You're just watching it on a screen, but you're sort
• 6:44
  Speaker 2: of forgetting the fact that you're watching it on a screen.
• 6:45
  Speaker 2: You're just concentrating on this 3D reality that you're running
• 6:49
  Speaker 2: through with a machine gun or whatever you're doing, right?
• 6:51
  Speaker 2: That's what people are interested in. They're not interested in
• 6:54
  Speaker 2: these games where you just like float over the earth
• 6:56
  Speaker 2: and like fly and just eat bananas. No, they're interested
• 7:01
  Speaker 2: in thrilling things. And if that gets provided in a
• 7:05
  Speaker 2: virtual way, the amount of people that are going to
• 7:08
  Speaker 2: just say this is better than regular boring life or
• 7:12
  Speaker 2: we're a slave to a computer.
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, there are both kinds.
• 7:17
  Speaker 2: Okay, we're back.
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: Where were we? Oh, yeah, I was just saying that
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: there are also these computer games that, like, provide a
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: more passive experience.
• 7:26
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 7:27
  Speaker 1: You're, like, not really doing much, and it's more kind
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: of zoning out.
• 7:30
  Speaker 2: But most people aren't interested in those. Most people are
• 7:32
  Speaker 2: interested in Call of Duty. They're interested in these wild
• 7:36
  Speaker 2: first-person shooters where you're running down hallways and everything's exciting
• 7:40
  Speaker 2: and thrilling, or some sci-fi game or, you know, Half-Life,
• 7:44
  Speaker 2: something like that. That's what people are interested in.
• 7:46
  Speaker 1: Yeah, well, I mean, I think there are, like, some...
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: personality differences in what path you would take there. But
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: either way, I think a lot of the choices that
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: people would make currently depend on what they are sort
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: of designed to respond to by feeling good about it. So, like,
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: if you enjoy one thing, you choose that. If you
• 8:06
  Speaker 1: enjoy another, no. In this condition of technological maturity, if
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: we imagine sort of a future civilization that has developed
• 8:15
  Speaker 1: all possible technologies to their maximum.
• 8:17
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: Then amongst the affordances, amongst the things they could do,
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: they wouldn't just have control over the external environment, things
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: around them, but also their own biology and brains. So
• 8:32
  Speaker 1: if you were one of these people, and maybe right
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: now the only way you get enjoyment is by getting
• 8:38
  Speaker 1: crazy drunk or doing things you don't really approve of maybe,
• 8:41
  Speaker 1: but that's actually what sort of lights your fire. You could...
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: you might be redesigning yourself to take the same kind
• 8:50
  Speaker 1: of pleasure, but in some kind of contemplating the beauty
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: of the universe or appreciating the goodness in the heart
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: of others, or some more sort of noble aspiration, like
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: solving abstract mathematics rather than playing first-person shooters. You would
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: have a choice whether you would get your thrills from
• 9:11
  Speaker 1: one kind of activity or the other.
• 9:13
  Speaker 2: Yeah, which brings us to the question, like, what does
• 9:15
  Speaker 2: it mean to be human? Like for people finding beauty
• 9:19
  Speaker 2: and joy in, you know, interesting and fascinating things and,
• 9:25
  Speaker 2: you know, how to be a better person and all
• 9:28
  Speaker 2: the different aspects of human life that we think about
• 9:32
  Speaker 2: when we think about people, we think about noble aspects
• 9:35
  Speaker 2: of humanity. But doesn't that have to exist? in conjunction
• 9:40
  Speaker 2: with the worst aspects of society for us to appreciate it?
• 9:43
  Speaker 2: It seems like this is a part of the human condition,
• 9:46
  Speaker 2: is that we have to have crime so that we
• 9:49
  Speaker 2: can appreciate peace. We have to have war so we
• 9:51
  Speaker 2: can appreciate peace. We have to have hate so we
• 9:54
  Speaker 2: can appreciate love. And we're never without one or the other.
• 9:58
  Speaker 2: They're always both together in constant... conflict and we're always
• 10:01
  Speaker 2: nobly hoping that the good wins out over the bad.
• 10:06
  Speaker 2: And this is part of the struggle of being a
• 10:08
  Speaker 2: human being. And if we just completely eliminate that struggle,
• 10:12
  Speaker 2: we're going to have to find some– we're going to
• 10:15
  Speaker 2: have to be a different thing because what we are
• 10:18
  Speaker 2: is this very strange– territorial primate and who's endlessly curious.
• 10:24
  Speaker 2: And this territorial primate is moving in a certain direction.
• 10:29
  Speaker 2: And that direction seems to be a better society. It
• 10:33
  Speaker 2: seems to be over time. If you look at statistics
• 10:36
  Speaker 2: from thousands of years ago to today, there's less violence
• 10:40
  Speaker 2: is better medicine. There's better education. It's moving in a
• 10:43
  Speaker 2: better and better and better direction, but it's in a struggle.
• 10:46
  Speaker 2: That's part of why it moves. if all of a
• 10:49
  Speaker 2: sudden there's no struggle and everyone is this wonderful, enlightened being, like,
• 10:53
  Speaker 2: what are we? Because we're going to be a different
• 10:56
  Speaker 2: thing than what we are right now. And if you
• 10:58
  Speaker 2: love music and if you love art and if you love,
• 11:01
  Speaker 2: you know, novels and all these different things that come
• 11:05
  Speaker 2: out of the human condition, well, those things come out
• 11:08
  Speaker 2: of struggle. Those things come out of confusion and pain
• 11:12
  Speaker 2: and heartbreak and love and joy and all that stuff
• 11:15
  Speaker 2: all piled up together. Without that, what are we? And
• 11:20
  Speaker 2: so if we are moving in this direction technologically and
• 11:24
  Speaker 2: we're not moving as fast biologically, do we merge? Because
• 11:30
  Speaker 2: that seems to be what I think. I think that
• 11:33
  Speaker 2: if this thing goes the way it continues to go,
• 11:37
  Speaker 2: the bottleneck is going to be human biology.
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: Yeah, there is a kind of paradox embedded in our
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: efforts to make progress. So there are all these kind
• 11:48
  Speaker 1: of scientists and people working to develop better technologies. And
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: throughout the economy, in some company, maybe you try to
• 11:54
  Speaker 1: figure out how to make some process a little bit
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: more efficient so you can serve customers better. And all
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: of this is designed to solve problems. If you sort
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: of extrapolate that to its logical endpoint, you would imagine
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: we would have perfect technology that can do everything, solve
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: all the problems, presumably with AI and automation.
• 12:15
  Speaker 2: Right.
• 12:16
  Speaker 1: But then you end up in this condition where there
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: is kind of nothing left for us to do, you
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: might think. And so although it looks like we have
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: these strong reasons to push forward in this direction, if
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: you actually look at the end point, if we succeeded
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: to many people, it will look kind of unpalatable and
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: like this kind of future where all the problems are solved.
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: And nevertheless, that does seem to be you know, the
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: direction that we are headed in, probably the direction that
• 12:44
  Speaker 1: we should be headed in.
• 12:45
  Speaker 2: Yeah, wouldn't that be a better goal if there was
• 12:48
  Speaker 2: zero murder, zero violence, zero crime, zero lying, zero corruption,
• 12:56
  Speaker 2: and human beings all worked in coordination with each other,
• 13:00
  Speaker 2: just like in a sense of unique syncing and harmony?
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: Right.
• 13:04
  Speaker 2: That would be way better.
• 13:06
  Speaker 1: I think so, but it does... Like if you actually
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: stare at that situation, it does have these slightly unpalatable qualities.
• 13:15
  Speaker 1: Because you might think it looks kind of bland, right?
• 13:18
  Speaker 2: Not necessarily, though. It's just it looks bland if you
• 13:22
  Speaker 2: think about what we're experiencing now, like all the excitement
• 13:26
  Speaker 2: and the weirdness of uncertainty and of not knowing, you know,
• 13:30
  Speaker 2: and also the negative aspects of our life in conjunction
• 13:34
  Speaker 2: with the positive aspects of our lives. We contrast the
• 13:37
  Speaker 2: two of them and you really appreciate good people after
• 13:39
  Speaker 2: around a bunch of fucking assholes. That doesn't have to
• 13:43
  Speaker 2: be that way. This is just what we are dealing with.
• 13:46
  Speaker 2: This is my position on work too. Because everybody in
• 13:50
  Speaker 2: their head is like, what happens when AI takes all
• 13:53
  Speaker 2: the jobs? And I'm like, do you have to have
• 13:56
  Speaker 2: a fucking job? Isn't that a human invention? Like, why
• 14:00
  Speaker 2: do you have to have a job? It seems crazy
• 14:03
  Speaker 2: that our main focus is on housing and food And
• 14:08
  Speaker 2: like most people are basically just working for that. Most
• 14:11
  Speaker 2: people that are, most people that are struggling check to check,
• 14:15
  Speaker 2: basically housing and food is their daily labor. If that's removed,
• 14:20
  Speaker 2: wouldn't enough people figure out what to do with their time? Yeah. Yeah.
• 14:26
  Speaker 1: I think so. That like, yeah, there will be some
• 14:28
  Speaker 1: transition and discomfort in change.
• 14:31
  Speaker 2: But this is made up.
• 14:31
  Speaker 1: Ultimately that is like, yeah. I mean, I think it's like,
• 14:34
  Speaker 1: so slavery is really bad, right? Like, But wage labor
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: is a sort of slavery light in a sense. You
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: have to sell a third of your waking day just
• 14:44
  Speaker 1: to get money to pay for necessities.