Latest / The Fourcast / Greenland: Is Trump now a bigger threat to Nato than Putin?

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Greenland: Is Trump now a bigger threat to Nato than Putin? · The Fourcast

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If President Trump succeeds in what he seems to be trying to
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do, goodness knows where we'll all be next year.
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And Greenland will only be one part of it.
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Is Donald Trump a bigger threat to NATO than President Putin?
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I would not say that because of course Putin is directly at
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making war in Europe. I potentially would say that he
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is a greater threat because what he is doing threatens to break
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up NATO. The Russian invasion of Ukraine
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united NATO. Hello and welcome to the
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forecast. Donald Trump is once again
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threatening to annex Greenland. But is it different this time?
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What once sounded like a joke now feels like a genuine test of
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how far Europe is willing to stand up to its most powerful
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ally. So is President Trump actually a
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bigger threat to NATO than President Putin?
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And if so, what should Europe do about it?
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To explore all this and more, I'm joined by our international
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editor, Lindsay Hilsum and former Danish diplomat Jonas
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Parello Plesner, who led the foreign policy department at
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Denmark's embassy in Washington from 2013 to 2017.
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Lindsay, I want to start with you. the US president says he
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wants Greenland. He needs it.
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He's going to buy it. Is that as mad as it sounds?
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I think he's absolutely serious about it.
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I mean, he mentioned it first of all in his first term.
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He mentioned it in his inaugural speech.
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So I think that he is absolutely serious.
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I think that the Greenlanders and the Danes are very right to
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be scared, because when I was in Greenland, which was last year
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when Vice President Vance was visiting the US base there at
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Pitaflip, the Greenland has said to me, nearly all of them, we
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don't want this. We absolutely don't want this.
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We may have a complicated relationship with Denmark, but
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we are heading for independence. We are absolutely not heading
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for becoming a vassal of the United States.
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Jonas Perello Plesner Are the Danes Scared?
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Are they right to be? I hear many of them granantic
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friends that have said, you know, they have hard time
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sleeping at night. They they honestly 100% feel
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quite scared. Many of them.
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Of course, we're also worried in the whole sort of in, in Denmark
2:22
proper. And yes, all of us of course
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feel on the siege sort of by this.
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We did have the meeting, which I'm sure we're going to discuss
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last yesterday between Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Vice
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President Vance and the Danish Foreign minister Lassen, and the
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Greenlandic minister in charge of of Foreign Relations, Vivian
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Mutt feels as well. So that did give maybe a little
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bit of breathing space after a very intense week.
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I mean, we'll, we'll, we will come to that meeting in a
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moment, but just very briefly as a sort of opener, if you would,
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is Donald Trump a bigger threat to NATO than President Putin?
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I would not say that because of course Putin is directly at
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making war in Europe against Ukraine and and sort of is a big
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territorial threat to the Baltic countries as well.
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I mean, this is still so far of course has been sort of Donald
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Trump speaking about this. And there's a huge difference
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from that to actually taking any kind of moves, military
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otherwise against another NATO ally, against what is part of
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NATO territory, which Greenland is, and therefore covered by
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Article 5. I potentially would say that he
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is a greater threat because what he is doing threatens to break
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up NATO, to lead to the collapse of NATO.
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Now the Russian invasion of Ukraine united NATO.
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NATO has remained together and has increased its defence
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spending. I know that Donald Trump always
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claims that it's his bullying which has led to NATO countries
4:00
increasing their defence spending.
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But it's actually since 2022 and the Russian invasion of Ukraine
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that the defence spending has gone up by 18%.
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And it's only America under Donald Trump which is refusing
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to support Ukraine, which is not sending weapons anymore, which
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at this time when there are drones and missiles coming into
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Ukrainian cities every night, Kiev is more or less without
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power and water. At the moment.
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He is refusing to help the Ukrainians.
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So he is the one who is dividing NATO in the face of the Russian
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aggression against Ukraine, an important state on NATO's
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borders. And Jonas yet the reason that he
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gives for wanting a need in Greenland is security.
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That is true. I mean, he well, he stated a
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couple of different reasons national security, he's talked
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about the the minerals, the importance they have.
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He talked about otherwise China and Russia are like ready
4:56
tomorrow to take it over. And he's lastly was still
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probably quite important to talk about psychological reasons in
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one of the late last interviews, which might be the really the
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sort of the the real core reason for this being that he would
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want to be the the the 1st president in Eisenhower to
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really kind of massively expand US territory.
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I don't kind of for for that that that could also be be the
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reason. So so definitely I mean from a
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danger point of view at least all the other apart from the
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psychological one which we have a hard time satisfying, we can
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sort of work on it. We agree that Arctic security
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has become much more important these years.
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Yes, the waterways will open up when the ice melts.
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That's why we're putting 5 billion into new sort of drone
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surveillance, into ships, into fighter jets as well.
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And we would love the US to take a bigger role.
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But in reality, what happened, which makes the situation even
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more odd for us, if that over the last 20 years or more, the
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US has continuously downscaled in Greenland and now only has
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the small base, Peter Fig, that I've also visited.
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And then now they're just a couple of 100 American soldiers
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there. And Lindsay, you know, in a very
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Trumpian statement, he says, you know, if we don't take
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Greenland, Russia or China will. And I'm not going to let that
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happen. Well, today the Russian Foreign
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Ministry spokesperson said that Russia had no intention of of
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taking Greenland now, Well, you don't necessarily take things at
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face value. They said they weren't going to
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invade Ukraine, but there is no indication that either Russia or
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China do have designs on Greenland at the moment.
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The broader Arctic area, yes, in terms of control of trade
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routes, in terms of investment, the whole polar area, yes,
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there's definitely, there's definitely strategic competition
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in that area. But for taking over Greenland,
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from a rational Chinese point of view, it's already in the NATO,
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in the Western camp, because it is Danish.
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I think that when you look at President Trump's motives, I
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think you have to look at this issue about wanting to control
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the Western Hemisphere. It's part of the spheres of
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interest, which he, you know, which is his philosophy, as it
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were, that China gets Asia, that the big man Putin, his good
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friend, gets Europe. I'm afraid that's us, you know,
7:20
and that he gets the Western Hemisphere as I've just come
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back from the Colombia, Venezuela border.
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That's clearly the, the, the seizing of Nicolas Maduro, the
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taking control of Venezuela. He did put out a meme the other
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day saying that he was the president of Venezuela, by the
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way, makes him rather busy because being president of
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America, you thought was a big enough job.
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But with that and Panama and Greenland fits into that.
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And I think that the the sort of logical arguments that you can,
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you know, that the these days have been completely clear as as
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Janice can tell us that the Americans can have more bases as
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they did during the Cold War. They can increase their number
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of troops as they had in the Cold War.
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But what is President Trump? He's a real estate magnate.
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He wants to own it. And and Jonas, the point is for
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all the reasons outlined by Lindsay there, you know, the
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rather the question is how do you stop it?
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What happens next Now on this? What came out of the the meeting
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between JD Vance, Marco Rubio and the Danish and Green Antic
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foreign ministers was, as I've understood it, an agreement to
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set up a working group that of course, in one way does pocket
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in some sort of diplomatic process, which would be, I think
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at least for sort of our night's sleep here in the Kingdom if
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they're not being nice. Because then you wouldn't have
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hopefully everyday new statements on different social
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media about Denmark and and Greenland.
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And again, hopefully, I mean, as as Lindsay was just underlining,
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very, very open to discussing all of it.
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I've been one of the voices when we had sort of in in papers here
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saying maybe we should be even more proactive.
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We could also offer the Americans as sort of minerals
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deal it. It's it's slightly complicated
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inside the Kingdom. They're not because Greenland
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now would sell rules sort of control G on the ground and
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Denmark when it's sort of strategic.
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So meaning uranium and, and some of the rare earths.
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But there we could also say for, for example, the F-30 fives,
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which has 450 minerals in it. Some of those could go a sort of
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free world supply line through through Greenland to the to the
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US. So there's lots of things we
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could do kind of practically together.
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I also think we could make a sort of no autocrats pledge of
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saying we will not have China and Russia basically with any
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influence in the Arctic and in in Greenland in particular.
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It's already more less the case that we do investment screenings
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off of incoming investments. And when a Chinese company
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wanted to build the Greenlandic airport back in 216, that was
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blocked. But we could make it more
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explicit into because that's what Trump has most likely kept
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saying. If we don't do anything, the
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Chinese, the Russians will take it over tomorrow.
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And we the danger we're not interested in that.
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The Greenlanders are not interested in the not that it
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looks remotely possible in becoming either Chinese or Green
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or Russian. They're not interested,
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according to Poland, and becoming as as as Lindsay says,
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vessels of the US either. That is true.
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That is true. Of course, I think the debate
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that's maybe changed a little bit here inside the Kingdom has
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been the question of independence, which we've seen
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the Greenlandic government for now kind of park a bit aside and
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say we are happy with the current construction.
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We're happy we being part of the Kingdom of Denmark.
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We we are part happy with being part of nature through the
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Kingdom of of Denmark. That came out a couple of days
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just before this meeting by the whole Greenlandic government,
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which is a unity government across most of the Greenland
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tech parties. I think that was a welcome sign
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because of course it does fire a little bit that the flames that
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Donald Trump lives on. On this agree.
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The Greenlanders say they're going to be independent.
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That begs the question, how can you actually as such a small
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society, kind of function completely on your own?
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And, and, and there, of course, the US would kind of see it kind
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of up for up for grabs. When I was in Greenland, one of
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the interesting things that people kept saying to me was
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that we are inward people and we know what happened to the Native
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Americans and we know what happened to Native Americans, to
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our inwit cousins in Alaska when America took over.
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And what they were saying was that they that those people lost
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their culture and they lost their language.
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And although people did have complaints against Denmark,
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particularly historically, they said there was an understanding
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now that they could, you know, that they would keep their
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language, that they would keep their culture.
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There's a great renaissance of inward culture in Greenland, you
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know, people wearing the, the facial tattoos and the different
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kind of clothes and so on. So they have carved out a space
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for their own culture. And one of the greatest fears
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was that they would be wiped out because they've looked at what
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happened in American history and they don't.
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Want that and that's a very good point, Lindsay.
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I've experienced it also myself first hand in to simulate where
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there was a meeting of Inuit people from from all of both
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from Canada, from the US and Greenland.
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And it's very true. The only ones that still speak
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the innit language are in Greenland.
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All the others have have have kind of lost their their
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culture. So they do see being a sort of
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US protectorate in one form or the other would probably lead to
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a much greater loss of culture than they have now, plus a loss
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of welfare state benefits that you have through Denmark, of
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course, free healthcare, free schooling.
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I mean, Jonas, I was going to say that, you know, the history
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between Denmark and and Greenland hasn't always been
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smooth. Do you think the likelihood of
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this move by the US is that it brings you closer together?
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Definitely that that, I would say that's already happened.
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That's what happened with that declaration by the Greenlandic
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government, that's that by really making kind of the
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independence movement very marginal at the moment.
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I also think that's both things and granders.
13:08
We, we 2008, we had a declaration about how the whole
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Arctic would be this kind of stone of low conflict and they
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wouldn't, you wouldn't need to in any way militarize it.
13:17
And I think that of course has changed completely for us as
13:19
well over the last period, not just because of a President
13:23
Trump, but a realization that that's not possible.
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Also what we see Russia with reopening its Arctic basis and
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and and so forth. So in that sense, there's been
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some big changes in the Danish and Greenlandic.
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It doesn't certainly people where everything they're
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Greenlanders that are quite with with some justice.
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I would say personally that are annoyed at Denmark about the
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colonial past that I feel that the the relationship is still
13:49
not fully equal. But I do also think the fact of
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having this kind of brutal offer from Donald Trump on the other
13:55
side also suddenly made crystal clear for all people.
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OK, what is it we actually have and to some degree we do cherish
14:01
it even with its it's shortcomings, but.
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But is is there still some risk that if President Trump actually
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did come up with the money, and it is a lot of money, that it
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would be tempting for the population of Greenland?
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I'll not rule it out in the sense that this could be as
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you're saying, a lot of money. We saw so that his some of his
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tech buddies like Elon Musk during the American U.S.
14:25
presidential campaign coming up with 1,000,000 for people that
14:28
voted for Donald Trump, sort of chosen in some sort of lottery
14:32
systems. Of course, if you would come up
14:34
with with that kind of money for free green Landers and try to
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sort of push for an illegal referendum.
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I'm, I'm not, I mean, this is a wild world these years.
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I'm not ruling it out that you could do something that that
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unfortunately wouldn't look that different from Russia and Crimea
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of trying to say, Oh, we, we, we asked the people with a little
14:55
bit of help and they they were suddenly in, in in favor.
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I do and generally don't think if you look at the opinion
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polls, if this was a completely free and fair poll right now,
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the Greenlanders in in large numbers with with a complete
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majority vote for the current construction.
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But of course there are a minority voices and, and we've
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also seen sort of examples of, of, of the US trying to sort of
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speak through some of these voices.
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Well, in very open daylight went on junior, Trump junior when he
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was in Greenland last year. That was like the people were
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that were in that room were paid to sort of wear MAGA caps.
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You could say that's just like in small scale, but you could do
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that in bigger scale and maybe a little bit more professionally.
15:39
And then it would be some sort of potential trying to undermine
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and and and cut Greenland and Denmark apart from each other.
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OK, Lindsay, just on the on the wider world stage, you know
15:50
what, if anything, is China saying about what president,
15:53
President Trump is up to, there must be a worry that it would
15:57
give cover to them to try to to grab Taiwan.
16:02
Yeah. Look, I mean, I think that cover
16:04
for trying to grab Taiwan is already there with the action in
16:07
in Venezuela. What the Chinese have said with
16:11
regard to Greenland is that they have maintained that they abide
16:16
by international law, which they say the Americans don't.
16:21
And certainly if there was any American grab of Greenland, it
16:25
would be against international law as well, as well as
16:28
splitting NATO. And they have said that that the
16:33
Americans should not use other countries as a pretext for
16:35
something like this. In other words, they shouldn't
16:38
claim that China or Russia is posing a threat in order to to
16:43
take an action against Greenland.
16:45
But in the broader Arctic, there is competition and we can't get
16:48
away from that. The Arctic Council, which is the
16:51
the Nordic countries and it also had Russia and China in it, you
16:57
know, that no longer functions because of the Russian invasion
17:01
of Ukraine. The Nordic countries pulled back
17:03
from that. So that idea of the Arctic as a
17:06
zone which would be peaceful development and everybody would
17:10
get along together, that has been threatened already by
17:13
Russia. And what we see with China is
17:15
that they're siding with Russia on that because Russia is more
17:18
advanced, obviously in terms of having Ice Breakers and in terms
17:21
of of having equipment where you can get through that, that
17:25
northern passage with your ships and so on.
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They're more advanced than the Chinese.
17:28
The Chinese are building more Ice Breakers and so on.
17:30
So in the broader area, there is competition.
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In fact, one of the other interesting things is that
17:36
you've got, right, you've had Russian and Chinese military,
17:39
umm, exercises together, which are much nearer Alaska than they
17:43
are Greenland. And there are some people who
17:45
are arguing, well, you actually, if the Americans are worried
17:48
about this, they should be beefing up their security in
17:50
Alaska. They shouldn't be looking at at
17:52
Greenland. So that competition is there in
17:55
the broader region, but it doesn't mean it's focused on
17:58
Greenland. If the US was so worried about
18:01
getting Russia as a neighbor, they should maybe look to Alaska
18:03
where they already have to hear the Russia as a neighbor.
18:06
As Linda was just saying, I, I, we, we found that couldn't help
18:09
smiling a little bit when we had that argument about we don't
18:12
want Russia as a neighbor like, but you already have.
18:15
I mean, critical here, presumably is Europe and the
18:19
role that Europe decides to take Jonas.
18:22
I mean, Stephen Miller, Trump's deputy chief of staff, has said
18:26
no one is going to fight the US over Greenland.
18:29
He's right, isn't he? I think I unfortunately, I think
18:34
to a certain degree he is. I mean, of course we don't like
18:37
his statement. We don't like sort of when he
18:39
refers to the iron loss of, of international politics and, and
18:43
make it sound eerily or something we heard in, in
18:46
decades passed by by by other people.
18:50
But I, I think it's right to say that there is no defense plan
18:53
kind of against another sort of NATO ally in that sense.
18:59
But that's of course why you see the opposition inside the US
19:03
really growing to this. So you won.
19:05
You of course have Congress with resolutions that might be coming
19:08
through. You have, for example, here in
19:10
Denmark, a big Congress delegation coming organized a
19:13
very short notice today and tomorrow.
19:16
And so I do think this is very different from Venezuela.
19:19
And there might have been a little bit of hybrid insight
19:22
sort of the White House and after the Venezuela operation
19:27
saying, wait, we could take out this dictator in in, in quicker
19:30
than you can go to the movies less than two hours.
19:33
I mean, we we can sort of do anything.
19:35
And I think we've also heard the joint chief of staff saying
19:38
there isn't any operative kind of plan for this and Congress
19:43
approval what would be needed, which makes it in that sense
19:46
quite different from Venezuela and a much higher bar.
19:50
Plus you also have US polls that actually this is unpopular.
19:53
It's it's not something that Americans generally think it's a
19:57
great idea that US should annex Greenland from another NATO
20:01
country. So it's not even sort of
20:04
remotely popular kind of a policy otherwise.
20:07
And then I would maybe just a point on on Trump and kind of
20:09
because right now we we see him. Rightly so maybe in also the
20:14
Kingdom is very sort of scarily also also we've seen the use of
20:17
military power in in Venezuela. But if you look back a year,
20:21
there are also other countries that he like into their
20:23
inaugural speed. You're also talking about Panama
20:25
that he was going to invade the Panama Canal and this would be
20:27
back on US. And what really happened
20:29
afterwards was that Secretary Rubio went down, negotiated, got
20:33
the Chinese company that was part of the investors in the
20:36
Panama Canal out American companies in.
20:39
And afterwards, Trump was completely happy with this.
20:41
So he's also still, I would say from having worked in, in
20:44
Washington, DC during his first period, Trump the deal maker.
20:48
So I in that sense, I do hope that that Greenland is more
20:52
towards the Panama side than it is towards the Venezuela side.
20:55
There is some room for doing something together.
20:58
And then afterwards, enough for that for Trump to say, oh, we
21:01
have a deal. And, and the US now they have a
21:03
much larger presence on, on Greenland.
21:06
And I kind of put my my mark and stamp on, on, on Greenland.
21:09
And that's, that's great. So, so Lindsay, is it fair to
21:13
say then that that that still everything rests on Donald Trump
21:16
and however his decision making flip flops rather than anything
21:21
that European leaders can or will do?
21:24
We see European nations being sent out, you know, sending out
21:27
troops to Greenland now on this sort of reconnaissance mission,
21:31
if you like, but they're looking we can't they on this.
21:35
Well, you know, 13 German officers, I'm sure they're
21:37
great. But, you know, that's not going
21:39
to hold back the US Navy, is it? And actually what is done is
21:42
really annoy the Russians because the Russians have said,
21:43
oh, NATO is sending all these troops to to Greenland as if we
21:47
are threatening Greenland and we're not, which is just, you
21:50
know, more mischief making by by Putin.
21:53
I think. I mean, Panama is an interesting
21:55
example because there it's really about the Chinese and
21:58
actually the Chinese, the one there is one company where they
22:02
where the Panamanian government is sort of disallowed.
22:05
They've re renationalized the the land on a particular island
22:09
where a Newport was going to be built.
22:10
But the two Chinese companies, the the company that owns 2
22:14
ports at either end of the canal, the Americans were trying
22:18
to take those over with BlackRock and the Chinese have
22:20
dug their heels in and said no. So the Panamanians are still
22:23
kind of struggling to try and work this out.
22:25
But I think that the key person here is Marco Rubio, because
22:28
Marco Rubio obviously really cares about Latin America more
22:32
than he does about Greenland. His main aim is to get a change
22:36
of regime in Cuba. And Venezuela was very much part
22:39
of his plan. And he's the person who is who
22:42
is negotiating with Panama. But I think that with Greenland,
22:45
the person is JD Vance. And we know that JD Vance, the
22:48
vice president, he seems to nurture an absolute hatred of
22:51
Europe. Every time he opens his mouth,
22:53
he says something to attempt to to belittle Europe.
22:56
And he muscled in on that meeting with the Danish foreign
23:00
minister and the Greenland foreign minister in order to
23:03
stop Marco Rubio from being the person who was in charge, who I
23:07
think we can say would have been much more emollient and would
23:10
have gone for this much more, you know, for a diplomatic
23:14
solution to the to the to a problem which is entirely of the
23:17
Americans creation. So I think as much does depend
23:21
on what happens within the US administration as what the
23:24
Europeans do. But I also think that the you,
23:29
you know, it's a big challenge for for the rest of NATO and for
23:33
the Europeans to, to back up Denmark and to provide strong
23:39
diplomatic support for Denmark. Because I think that Meza
23:43
Frederickson, the Danish leader, she is being pretty strong in
23:48
her reaction. She is not rolling over.
23:50
She is not doing what some European leaders have done, you
23:53
know, oh, the great Donald Trump, you know, trying to
23:56
flatter him and so on. She is standing firm and I
24:00
suspect that that is we will see, but I suspect that that is
24:04
a better diplomatic posture for such a threat.
24:07
Jonas, we're going to have to bring this to a close now.
24:09
But Jonas, where to your in your mind, does this end?
24:16
Hopefully with all of us improving Arctic security
24:21
together and that did not break NATO and we therefore have still
24:25
a strong reply and posture towards Putin in, in, in these.
24:28
That's of course, kind of what I, I hope for And that we
24:32
somehow find, you know, that model in this case that can also
24:37
blockade Donald Trump enough to say, OK, we're, we have a deal
24:41
in Greenland. And Lindsay, how likely is that?
24:45
I think it's perfectly possible, but at the same time, let's not
24:49
forget that there is a real threat, and that real threat is
24:53
Russia. And as we speak, friends of mine
24:56
are without light and without water in Kiev because every
25:01
night at the moment, President Putin is taking advantage of the
25:05
splits within NATO caused by President Trump and the American
25:09
administration. And he is firing into the
25:12
cities. And it's a much harsher winter
25:15
this year than it was last year or the year before.
25:17
And so if Ukraine can't keep up the defence, then Russia really
25:22
is, you know, the Baltic space, Poland, these countries are
25:26
really worried. And if President Trump succeeds
25:30
in what he seems to be trying to do, which is befriending
25:33
President Putin and causing cracks in NATO, goodness knows
25:37
where we'll all be next year. And Greenland will only be one
25:40
part of it. Lindsay Hilsum, Jonas Perello
25:44
Pleasner, thank you so much for talking to us today.
25:47
A. Pleasure.
25:48
Thank you. And that is it for the forecast
25:51
today. See you next time.