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WEEK 9 College Football Picks: Are They Spot On? · Targeting Winners: A College Football Betting Podcast

0:00
Now. What's up guys, we are getting
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ready for Week 9 of the college football season.
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Welcome to targeting winners. I am Darren, joined by Tim and
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Pete. Guys, week 8, fun week, great
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week. We all got to get together and
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go see UCF Battle West Virginia, but we are back in our regular
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homes. Little sunburn, little fatter,
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but you know, that's what happens when, you know, you send
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old fat guys on vacation, we get sunburned, we get fatter.
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But anyway, all back ready for another week at college
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football. Tim, how we doing?
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Great so far so good. Off to week 9 I guess.
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Got off to a good start the other day.
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Delaware getting an early opportunity to win the Rusty
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Butt Cheeks award for that wonderful clock management and
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passing with your backup quarterback.
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But that's for another day. Pete, how we doing today?
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I'm doing great. There's a lot of food last week.
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So yeah, a little fatter little we're in the hat here from from
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our game last Saturday. But had a had a great time and
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it was a lot of fun to get out to a game this year.
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So good to be back as well. Sunburn is peeling off slowly.
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But it is, I noticed like my left ear, cause like where we
1:14
were sitting, the sun was just like beating down on our left
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sides the entire day. And yeah, but my, my wife can't
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pick out me about being pasty anymore 'cause, you know, the
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burns started to fade and appropriate time to get a tan
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the end of October when nobody cares.
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But anyway, so yes, Tim Menge, we had a couple of Conference
1:33
USA games to start the week. I kind of got a mini rant in
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about Delaware. We're not going to go there
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because, you know, we're all back from vacation.
1:41
We're probably all had busy weeks at work so far.
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No sense getting irritated right off the bat.
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We did have a comment on on one of the shorts from our guy Drew.
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Want to know if we had any thoughts about tonight's stand
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alone Sunbelt match up. And so Tim, we'll start with
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you. Your South Alabama Jaguars look
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like they're laying 6 1/2 at Georgia State with a total of 54
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1/2. He just wanted to know if we had
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any thoughts on this. I, I, I had maybe the slightest
2:11
of liens to the over Looks like we got a couple of dual threat
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quarterbacks and crappy defenses.
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No bet for me, but if you had to have action because you don't
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have Amazon Prime like I do, not to watch the NFL game.
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Slightest of leads to the over here, but I don't know if you
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guys had any. Thoughts.
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I was actually thinking the same things.
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I know the defense can't slap anybody, so at least one team's
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going to score a lot. Depends on how much out South
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Alabama scores. But yeah, I'm, I'm leaning
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pretty big towards the courtesy over myself as far as who wins
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both of these teams. Speaking of fast cheeks, double
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award for next week. But yeah, I would I would stay
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away from who wins and I would say, you know, concentrate on
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the scoring. I would lean over for the
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scoring if I was going to bet on this.
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Pete, what do you think? Yeah, same.
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I think I would lean over. I mean the recent performances
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in scoring wouldn't suggest an over, but this match up would.
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The weather would, you know, so that's why I didn't play it.
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I was torn on it. But yeah, if I had to go
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anywhere, I'd go the over. Yeah, I think if Cameron Brown
3:19
starts over TJ Finley for Georgia State, I think you have
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to go over there that that offense is just a lot better
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when he's the quarterback. But yeah, I mean, I'll probably
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watch, you know, there's not a good hockey game on or
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something, but yeah, a couple of one in six teams.
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Yeah. Yeah, I just.
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Yeah, but anyway, Drew, slightly into the over, you know, so I
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don't know how many other opinions you've got out there.
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There you go. You got three more slightly into
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the over. I don't believe any of us had
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anything for Friday, but we'll take a quick peek at that.
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North Texas laying 25 1/2 at Charlotte, Cal getting 5 1/2 at
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Virginia Tech, and Boise laying 21 1/2 at Nevada.
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Any thoughts on that? I don't like I'll get in five,
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but other than that, I, I would stay away from both of those if
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you're, if that was in the RPO segment, a big pass.
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No thanks. Eat anything.
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Strike your fancy on that trifecta of awesomeness.
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Yeah, that I mean the, I don't know.
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I mean, I, I was taking a look at the Cal Virginia Tech thing.
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I, I don't know, I was leaning under there, but I, I didn't
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really do anything. Boise State, Nevada, I mean, I
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was once again, I was leaning on the over, but it's just a slight
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lean. Neither of those really felt
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too, too clear to me. So no, I don't have much there.
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Yeah, I had a slight lean on Boise.
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I mean, I'd rather see 21 than 21 1/2, but Nevada's just that.
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That may be I, I believe I thought I read somewhere in
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Nevada might be headed into a bye week or something about the
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buyout drops a ton for that guy for was it Jeff Chode?
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I think his name is after January 1st.
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So maybe they wait, but seems like a lot of these coaches are
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getting canned right after, you know, the Sunday after game,
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knowing that the team's going into a bye week.
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So they have like 2 weeks to to kind of get some new people in
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place. But yeah, I, I didn't have any
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Boise State. If it was 21, maybe I would have
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fired, but nothing all right, so nothing for Thursday and Friday
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for us. So guys, any, any thoughts from
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the two games? I know, Tim, you were hope you
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bought like a scratch off or something because I mean, you
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had, you know, overtime where where unders go to die.
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You've got the multiple messed up field goal attempts.
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I mean you're you're, you were, you were living right man cuz.
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A. Lot went right there.
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Well Speaking of that game, if you're watching on YouTube, you
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can see I our first ass cheeks of the year an actual slide for
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it this time yeah this game was horrible congratulations to
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Western Kentucky. They sucked slightly less than
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Louisiana Tech. One highlight of the game so the
6:00
opening kickoff of the second-half.
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Thank God the diplomat season 3 started and my wife wanted to
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watch that. So we skipped out halfway
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through the 3rd and I just happened to see block field goal
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on the the game cast and then oh, another blah.
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I thought it was the same team in the game.
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The screen just didn't reload. No2 block field goals.
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Yeah boy, this you know, it's a few hours of your life.
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You're not going to get back and got happy to get the bet hit.
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It was on the short. We put out a short this week.
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So if you saw that on YouTube, you know, hopefully, hopefully
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you played along the over hit for me.
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And if you saw it on YouTube, something like 700 people saw
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it. Like if they could get those
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people to like and subscribe, that'd be great.
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While you're watching the video, while you're there, you know
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you. Got a free winner?
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Give it a like and a subscription.
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Was it 731 or something like that happened?
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Well, I think it was higher than that actually.
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Like YouTube was weird. Like I was looking at it and it
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was like it's 6 something, then it went down to like 5 something
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and then it went back up to like 8 something.
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So I'm not really sure how you can lose 100 views on a video.
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Plus people were watching like 205% of it.
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I, I, I don't know how that's possible.
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But then again, you know, we all went to Mohandasan and I, I, we
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all don't really understand YouTube so.
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It's my obvious next appeal is what it was.
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That could be I mean next sells bro.
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That's that's why we need you to just make shorts every week.
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Yeah, I got to use all this, you know.
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That's right. Yeah, I think we're, I think
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we're done for Conference USA now.
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Don't we start Mac? Goodness.
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I don't know if there's any other Conference USA Halloween,
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but yeah. Bring on the Mac.
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Come on. Yeah, I think we're about ready
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for some some some more awful weekday football.
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Yeah, well, I'm excited, not gonna lie.
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All right, so Tuesday, Wednesday's come and gone.
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Thursday and Friday we have nothing official that we've
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locked in. So let's get into Saturday.
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Well, all right, I've got my first game's up here.
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It's first one. It's Saturday at noon.
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We have Virginia at North Carolina.
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Virginia giving 10 points. I jumped on this rather quickly,
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even before I look at some of the stats, because that's when I
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looked at the game. I was like, well, Virginia ought
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to win by 17 at least, and that's how it was only 10.
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So I'm like, OK, let's jump on that pretty quickly.
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Weather is going to be 65°, which is perfect for getting
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your ass kicked in Chapel Hill. So North Carolina should have a
8:35
problem there. Virginia's five and two against
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the spread. UNC is is 3 and 3.
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You know, the quarterbacks are terrible.
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Sorry, Gio, my boy, but you know, he only throws short.
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The other guy only throws interceptions and it's just been
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a bad year for everyone up in Chapel Bill and I think I think
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they keep it close. Maybe in the first half or by
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the end of the halfway through the 3rd beginning of the 4th,
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everyone's going to be Googling, you know, best barbecue in
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Chapel Hill and don't have to leave early.
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And I see Virginia just you know, just easily there's the E
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word having no problem covering this 10 points.
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So I I like Virginia here that I like the way they run the ball.
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You know, they protect the quarterback spends a lot of time
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out of pocket. He has time to throw the team
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looks for real. I did not see this coming.
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Very much. So, yeah, I like Virginia.
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Give the points to North Carolina.
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Hey any thoughts boys? I mean at this point.
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My surprise team in this conference.
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I'm sorry. Go ahead, B.
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No, you can go keep going. No, go ahead.
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I was just trying to pull up stats because the one thing I
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was going to disagree with, I agree with everything other than
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Tim saying that both quarterbacks are bad.
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I think Chandler Morris is actually kind of good.
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He's the main reason that Virginia's having quite the
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season that they're having. So yeah, I mean, I think
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Virginia should cover here. They have the much better
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quarterback. North Carolina was somewhat
10:06
competitive at Cal, but you never know what kind of version
10:08
of Cal you're going to get anyway.
10:09
So, yeah, I agree with this. This will be the official end,
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Tim, of our futures bets involving North Carolina.
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I I'm, I have a feeling, but yeah, I mean, how do you, how do
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you go against Virginia at this point?
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I already chalked that one up as a loss.
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I didn't even. I didn't even wait.
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I have my own chart I'm keeping track of.
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I just blacked that one out so it is dead.
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I think I put an L on mine Sunday night after I got back
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from our trip. I was like, yeah, this is not.
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That's out. Yeah, agree with with which
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which you both said. I mean, North Carolina is as I
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predicted before the season started, is just a disaster.
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It's going to continue to be a disaster.
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I, I, I, I would lay those points all day long here.
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I think that's a, that's a great bet.
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I love it. All right, Well, since we're
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going chronologically, we got another one of mine here.
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So buckle up folks. We have Arkansas getting a point
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and a half hosting Auburn. This was this was weird.
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I mean, they got a point and a half and the money line was the
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same as if they were just to or the juice was the same if you're
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just bet them to win overall. So I just took them to win.
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Doesn't quite count as a money line sprinkle.
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So but it's it's probably going to rain.
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But judging on what I saw last week, we saw a lot of Arkansas
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last week. They can, they're pretty
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explosive. They got their own #10 that
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quarterback, I forget his name, but they put up 42, I believe,
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last week in Texas A&M. It's a very good team.
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The only thing as far as the things that I look at that
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favors Auburn is the turnover margin.
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And it's a big gap. I think it's a + 8 or 9 gap.
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But I think Arkansas should be able to sustain a lot of the
11:52
drives. I I just think they're going to
11:55
build on a loss last week because, you know, they, it's
12:00
technically a good loss. I hate saying that because
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there's no such thing as a good loss, but they lost to a very
12:04
good team. I think they're currently ranked
12:05
4th if you care about the rankings, which I don't, but a
12:08
lot of people think they're good.
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So yeah, I like Arkansas to win this game.
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Even though they're getting a point and a half, the juice is
12:16
the same, you know, just bet them to win outright and enjoy
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it. Yeah, I'll jump in.
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I looked at the over on this 55 1/2.
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I agree, Arkansas look good. I think there's going to be a
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lot of scoring in this game. I I was considering playing the
12:32
over here if there was a little bit lower, if I can get that
12:35
number on, I don't know, 54 or something, I would definitely
12:38
play the over. So kind of in that little weird
12:40
in between area with with that number.
12:43
But yeah, I think it's going to be a lot of scoring and I think
12:45
Arkansas is going to do a lot of scoring as well just by
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themselves. So love that bet all together.
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Yeah, This is just kind of, I mean, not to really simplify it,
12:55
but you got a team that's shown that it can score against a team
12:57
that's shown that it cannot score.
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I mean, why wouldn't you take Arkansas here?
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The only possible thing I would be concerned about is there some
13:06
talk that all three Auburn quarterbacks might play this
13:09
week. So, I mean, I don't know who
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you're going to see, whether you're going to see a different
13:13
guy where it's going to be a combination two of the three, or
13:16
whether you're going to see all three.
13:17
Who the hell knows? I mean, Hugh Freeze is probably
13:20
out of a job on Sunday morning if they lose this game.
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I mean, Arkansas can't stop anybody, but doesn't seem like
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they can score on anybody. So yeah, I mean, just a simple
13:30
handicap for me to, you know, and a spread less than a field
13:34
goal. You take the team that can
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score. Yeah.
13:38
That makes sense. I mean, it's, it's, you know,
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it's the, the best my three brain cells could come up with.
13:43
But I mean, how, how can you try?
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I mean, I bet on 2 Auburn games and I'm, I'm owing 2.
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So I'm the last one anybody should be listening to when it
13:50
comes to picking a game involving Auburn.
13:53
But I I haven't. I mean, we can talk about the
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SEC official getting permanently banned.
14:00
Thanks. That really helped.
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My Auburn plus 3 1/2 against Georgia when you made the wrong
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call and national television serves you right, You're
14:05
unemployed. Bastard.
14:06
But anyway, I digress. Yeah.
14:09
I mean, I if I had to bet this game, which I'm anti Auburn
14:14
games the rest of the year. Yeah, yeah, give me the team
14:16
that can score. Your version of me with the Lane
14:20
Kiffin effect. This is to her.
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That's why, that's why that's one of the that's why we track
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our bets. What have I learned this year?
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Don't bet on Auburn game. That's simple.
14:31
Going to move on to next one. We got Saturday at 3:30.
14:34
We've got BYU and Iowa State. Iowa State leads the series 5
14:39
and O, that's something to look at.
14:41
But BYU five and two against the spread.
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Iowa State 3, three and one. All right, Darren, is this one
14:47
of yours? Yeah.
14:48
And I didn't look at any of that, but I guess, but I guess
14:52
that's a little comforting. So Iowa State is laying 2 1/2
14:55
here. Everything that I looked at
15:00
tells me I should have probably bet BYU, but I just think you're
15:05
going to see people are going to see that a little 11 next to
15:09
their name when they open their apps and they're just going to
15:11
pile on BYU here. A couple reasons why I'm going
15:15
with the Cyclones here. I don't know.
15:17
A few weeks ago they lost two of their top corners again,
15:19
Cincinnati. Their defense was was pretty
15:21
bad. They are coming off that bye
15:24
week. Matt Campbell is usually pretty
15:27
good at overcoming things like this.
15:28
There's a team that was 5 and O they have lost two in a row
15:31
since those injuries. BYU, they had, you know what,
15:35
what they consider one of those big rivalry games with Utah.
15:38
Yeah, they won. But if you look at the box
15:40
score, they kind of got out played.
15:42
They they, they kind of got lucky to to get that one under
15:45
their belt. So I'm going with a little bit
15:47
of a of an emotional let down here for the Cougars.
15:50
And, you know, Iowa State's two lost in a row.
15:52
We're both in the conference. So we we do know that this is a
15:55
big 12A7 and two team will almost certainly be playing for
15:59
the conference title. So, you know, not saying, you
16:03
know, that doesn't guarantee that Ohio State's going to win
16:05
this by three or more, but I think this is the one game that
16:08
we're going to get their best effort.
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And with an extra week to prep, you know, I, I'm going to take
16:12
the chance that, that Rocco back to, I mean, come on, man, Who's
16:15
more big game than Rocco Beck? Is there anybody I don't even
16:18
know if there is, you know, it's 2 1/2.
16:21
It's a little highly juiced. I'm, I'm gonna, I'm gonna count
16:24
on Rocco Beck and Matt Campbell to figure some things out off
16:26
that bye week. And, and BYUI think a little bit
16:30
of a let down after that big win last week.
16:32
Hey, I want a big travel spot. And you got to go almost across
16:35
the country to, to play Iowa State.
16:36
So I got 1. You did on Iowa State laying 2
16:39
1/2. Well, it's a good bet, you know,
16:43
either way for for my futures, best for this conference.
16:46
I think I have both of them to win the Big 12.
16:48
Ones 9 to one and one's 8 to 1 I believe for 8 1/2.
16:53
You had like half the conference to win.
16:54
I don't remember if I it wasn't a BY in Colorado, in Utah, I
16:59
think in Colorado in. Utah, I believe.
17:02
And Colorado, right? I don't.
17:03
I didn't think you had Iowa State.
17:04
Maybe you did. You.
17:07
Had a lot of Big 12 stuff going on.
17:08
You know what, that's next week. We'll that'll be the week 10
17:11
update. We got a few more, yeah, we got
17:14
a few more wins and losses that are definite now, so.
17:19
Any thoughts Peter? Yeah, I know.
17:23
I like that bet. I was looking at the over under,
17:25
which was 48 1/2. You know, I was, I was leaning
17:28
on the under in this game just because I'm not exactly
17:30
comfortable with the scoring that's going to come out of
17:32
here. But I do like BYU playing that
17:34
that 1 1/2. So I would definitely go that
17:36
direction and really not touch the total here.
17:41
We're going to move on. We got a 330 game.
17:43
We have Missouri and Vanderbilt. Dan, is this one of yours again,
17:48
I think? We got those and this was real
17:50
simple that. Call me nuts man, but does this
17:53
just feel like that? This after all the crap football
17:57
at Vanderbilt has put out for decades, does it just not feel
18:00
like that this is their year? Am I crazy by thinking that?
18:03
I mean they just took down LSU their own what?
18:07
Their only loss was to Bama. No shame there.
18:11
I I trust Pavi a little bit more than I trust Privula in this
18:14
game. I know Ahmad Hardy is probably
18:16
going to have a a big part in this game for Missouri, but man,
18:22
I don't know, man. Call this a gut feeling.
18:24
I don't have too much statistical analysis here.
18:27
These teams are pretty equal depending on what you'd look at
18:31
like something. Yeah, I just look at this
18:33
Vanderbilt team and how many weeks we think, you know, OK,
18:37
about to turn this here. Yeah.
18:39
This is the week that it all goes crashing down.
18:41
You know, after Alabama. They've they've played great.
18:44
After that Alabama game, you know, Missouri hasn't been away
18:47
from home too much things only want their second Rd. game of
18:50
the year so far. They did play pretty solid
18:53
against against Bama, so give them credit for that.
18:56
But Oh no, man, it's, it's Vanderbilt's.
19:02
Yeah, I I just said it's Vanderbilt's year, man.
19:04
I I think this is a game they win.
19:05
I think I got 2/2 and 1/2. I laid here.
19:08
It's a little bit juiced. Can you imagine Vanderbilt SEC
19:13
champions? I If Vandy and Bama play again
19:17
in the SEC Championship, would it really surprise anybody?
19:20
I mean, I know they need a couple, couple teams to get some
19:23
losses in there, but. I would prefer they play Texas
19:27
A&M. Well.
19:29
That's fair. I would prefer that they play
19:31
that too for for your sake, but God, I don't know, man.
19:37
They, they haven't fallen. We've been waiting for them to
19:39
fall and they just have not. I, it's just Clark Lee's got it
19:43
going down there, man, I almost made this A2 unit play, but I
19:48
was like, no, I'm not hard. He'll rush for 300 yards or
19:51
something if I do that. So I, I did not.
19:54
But yeah, just, I, I mean, Vandy took down LSU and, and that
19:58
pretty good defense. I don't think Missouri's defense
20:01
is as solid as what LSU is putting out there, but.
20:05
And it's at home, so. Yeah, Gimme Vandy, Gimme Vandy.
20:09
Any other thoughts, Pete? No, we talked about it last week
20:12
with both Vandy and Indiana, right?
20:14
Are these teams real or not? And I think we came away at the
20:16
conclusion that they are real, right?
20:17
And so I agree with Aaron. I mean, it just feels like Vandy
20:20
is going to keep rolling here. And so I expect that will
20:23
happen. So I love that bet.
20:25
Yeah, I wouldn't mind seeing a Vandy, Indiana championship
20:28
game. That would be fun honestly.
20:30
I prefer Vandy or Indiana and Texas A&M again for my future
20:34
bet, but. Be fun to see 22 totally
20:37
different teams that you know weren't that highly thought of
20:40
play playing the game. That'd be great.
20:43
Oh yeah. I mean, the ratings would be
20:44
terrible, but it'd be great. Oh, well, that's what's that's
20:47
what's really important, you know, Yeah.
20:49
Is the ratings. So.
20:50
But if we got a double feature here on our next game at 4:15,
20:53
we have Texas visiting Mississippi State.
20:57
I believe Tigers leads historical series 3 to 2 and
21:01
they won last year 35 to 13. Not much of A weather factor.
21:07
It might rain in the second-half but other than that it seems
21:10
pretty good. Who wants to go first, boys?
21:13
I will take this one. So total number here, 53 1/2.
21:20
Yeah. I mean, I have largely no faith
21:22
whatsoever in Texas and their offense, their defence is good.
21:25
Their offense has been something to be be desired.
21:28
They've they've left a lot of the floor.
21:30
I don't know what's going on there.
21:31
I don't think they're going to magically heal themselves.
21:33
They look very inefficient. If it does rain in the
21:36
second-half, which absolutely could happen, I I think that
21:39
will be another issue for that offense actually getting
21:43
anything going, especially trying to score any number of
21:46
points. So yeah, I really, I really like
21:49
the under here, so I will take the under for this game.
21:54
And for a lot of the reasons that Pete mentioned, I took the
21:57
seven with Mississippi State. I mean, we all watched Texas and
22:02
Kentucky last Saturday night. Did anybody see anything from
22:06
Texas that led you to believe that this is the week they they
22:10
suddenly turn it on and become the team that everybody thought
22:13
in August that they were going to be this offensive lines got
22:17
problems. Their head coach, he's still the
22:20
play caller. And she asked Billy Napier how
22:22
that worked out for him while he continued to call the plays.
22:26
They're just I CJ Baxter's supposed to come back, but he I
22:30
believe was a hamstring injury. He's probably going to be on
22:32
limited carries. I would guess Mississippi
22:36
State's already exceeded their expectations.
22:38
Pete, I think that was your first win, total cash over 3 1/2
22:41
like 4 games into the season. Night time with those cowbells.
22:45
Well, it's not night time. I guess it's 4:00 game.
22:47
But still, that's can't be a good environment for for an
22:51
offensive line like Tex that isn't playing well.
22:53
I expect some false starts. I expect Manning to be under a
22:56
lot of pressure. Honestly, I think Blake Chapin
22:58
coming in is probably the better quarterback at this point in the
23:01
season. Yes, he had that ass
23:03
interception at the end. They should have beaten Florida.
23:06
But if they can put up that kind of effort against Florida on the
23:10
road, I mean, they should be able to stay within 7 at home.
23:13
So this is kind of more of a Texas fade than anything just
23:17
because we watch them. I mean, they should have lost to
23:19
Kentucky. And you know, Mark Stoops, can I
23:22
just tell you if we had an extra set of rusty ass cheeks to give
23:24
out? Dude, you're inside the 30 yard
23:27
line. You're, you're down by three.
23:30
You've got 14 seconds left. Take a shot at the end zone.
23:32
Seriously, what have you got to lose at this point?
23:35
You're literally doing a disservice to your kids.
23:37
I mean, come on, you're not going anywhere.
23:39
Try and beat Texas. Wow, that's twice I've ranted
23:42
and we're only 20. Three.
23:43
That's good. That's.
23:44
Good. Yeah.
23:45
Anyway, well, we're short now, so that's good.
23:47
Hey, 11, minor correction here by the way, for our listeners
23:49
that over underline is not correct.
23:51
I didn't think so. It should be 45 1/2 and I'm
23:53
still under that 45 1/2, but it's a pretty big difference.
23:56
So I think we missed updating that.
23:57
But still that still speaks to the fact that I don't access do
24:01
much of anything on offense as they have that.
24:03
So yeah. I just want to add, we do our
24:08
yearly football chip. Can we never go to Mississippi
24:11
State? Just I don't want to listen to
24:13
those damn cowbells for three hours.
24:14
I would. Rather, yeah, we're good
24:16
without. There's.
24:18
There's not I. Just tell you right this going
24:20
to going to the high school football games here.
24:23
One of the football moms brings like a 6 to 8 pack of cowbells
24:28
and has passed them out to myself and other football
24:32
parents on various occasions. So I can speak to the
24:35
annoyingness as I have been annoying people with one.
24:38
Yeah, on occasion. Damned no, we do not need more
24:41
cowbell. No, I mean, I'd go to a game
24:45
with Christopher Walken if. You wanted to show us, but you
24:48
know if you're going to run here, that.
24:51
'D be awesome. You're all morons.
24:54
Kick the field goal. Yeah, if if we go some, I mean,
24:58
I'd like we did what we did a Big 12 game.
25:00
We last year we did an ACC. I'd love to see if any of these
25:03
colleges prefer the ones that suck and the SEC or the Big 10
25:06
have inexpensive tickets. At least we can hit all the all
25:10
the power for conferences. Yeah, I agree with Tim I yeah,
25:14
we're old. Headaches come easy.
25:16
I don't need to. Be sitting with.
25:17
Like 40,000 cowbells going at the same time.
25:21
Thankfully we won't live long enough to make it there because
25:22
we have someone else that's also.
25:25
Right. All right, next 6:00 Saturday,
25:29
we've got TCU and West Virginia. TCU four and two against the
25:34
spread, West Virginia 3 and 4. We just saw West Virginia and
25:40
they are complete ass. I know Rich Rodger boy.
25:44
So with over under being 55 1/2, I took the over on this game.
25:49
TCU is explosive. I think they're a lot better.
25:53
If they seem better than UCFI think they'll take care of the
25:56
ball better, they'll prolong more drives.
25:59
They'll be on the field more even though it's on the road.
26:03
I almost like them. I think they were favored by 14
26:05
or 15 I believe. I even almost wanted them to
26:07
just cover the whole the whole spread here.
26:12
God, West Virginia just looks horrible.
26:15
I think they can probably score maybe 14, maybe 17.
26:19
TCU will take care of the rest. I'm expecting a big blowout win
26:22
here for TCU at West Virginia. They'll cover to 55 1/2.
26:27
Your thoughts? Yeah, I think we saw.
26:31
I mean, Rich Rod may be my boy, but he doesn't have his players
26:33
yet. I mean, clearly saw that last
26:35
week, right? He doesn't really have a
26:36
quarterback. He doesn't have any receivers.
26:38
Says nobody's open ever. There's nothing going on the
26:41
offensive side of the ball for them and defense was probably
26:44
worse. So.
26:45
All I do is run, yeah. I mean, there's just nothing.
26:48
There's nothing going on in the team right now.
26:50
It's going to take a couple years.
26:51
I. 1977 all over again. We're just going.
26:53
To run. You got it.
26:56
Yeah, if if you were at the UCF game and you played a drinking
27:00
game where you did a shot every time the PA announcer said the
27:03
word keeper. You would.
27:05
Have been dead. You wouldn't have made it to
27:06
halftime. You would have.
27:07
This show would have been cancelled.
27:09
We were telling you, you would have found.
27:10
I mean, West Virginia right now has got 3 plays in their
27:13
playbook. Keep her up the middle, keep her
27:15
left, keep her right and. That's it.
27:17
You know, but I did, I did mention to Pete, keep an eye on
27:20
the on, you know, we're down to 1 portal window now, like in mid
27:24
January. Keep an eye on what Rich Rod
27:26
brings in because I'm telling you right now, if he gets
27:29
himself a nice portal haul, whatever West Virginia's win
27:32
total is bet over because I'm, I'm not as big a Rich Rod fan as
27:37
Pete is, but I do know he will win wherever he goes.
27:40
So if he has a nice portal hall and that win totals like 4 1/2,
27:45
I'm telling you my first future bet for 2026, I'm going over.
27:50
He'll, he'll get. Yeah, he'll get some people in
27:52
there. He will.
27:53
But not. But not this year.
27:57
All right. Well.
28:00
Michigan. Michigan State first rivalry
28:03
game. That's going to be at 7:30.
28:06
Well, Michigan won the last, what, the last three games, 7435
28:11
and five overall. Not much of A rivalry doesn't
28:14
look like. But Michigan 3 and 4, they're
28:17
both three and four against the spread this year, for whatever
28:18
that's worth. And who has this one?
28:22
Oh, that's mine. Big surprise.
28:24
Yeah, big shocker there. So I mean, I'll, I'll be the
28:27
first to argue that the Big 10 is better when Michigan State is
28:29
good, because then it's rivalry means something.
28:32
It is a rivalry. But I mean, Michigan State has
28:35
not been good. It doesn't matter who they're
28:37
playing now. They're getting better.
28:38
They're improving as we predicted they would last year.
28:40
So they're starting to move the right direction.
28:42
Not enough to beat Michigan here.
28:44
I mean, not that Michigan looks that great, but Michigan State
28:46
still doesn't look that good. So yeah, of course, I'll.
28:49
I'll be watching it that the total is 46 and A and a half.
28:55
Yeah. I mean, Michigan is beating
28:56
people. They're not scoring a ton.
28:58
I don't love the Michigan offense.
28:59
I actually saw some articles this week that I've been saying
29:02
Sharon Mork should be on the hot seat.
29:03
And I think he very well might be in the hot seat soon, winning
29:07
or not. He should because the team
29:08
doesn't look good. That said, you know, it's a it's
29:11
a night game. It should be fun with these two
29:14
playing each other. So the rival, the rival, the
29:16
rivalry will be alive. You know, the fans are going to
29:18
go nuts. It's going to be interesting.
29:21
You know, unless Michigan stuff, I mean, if they stub their toe
29:24
and don't go in and win this game, just period.
29:26
Forget that, forget the points money line.
29:28
If they don't win this game, he should be fired on Monday.
29:30
That said, I don't expect, I don't expect that to happen, but
29:34
I do expect a low scoring game and especially 30 degrees, 35°,
29:39
it's not that great in Michigan at the moment.
29:40
It's going to be a little windy and it's just not going to be
29:42
great conditions. They're going to run the ball
29:44
the the numbers going to be suppressed.
29:46
So I really love the under here 46 1/2.
29:51
Did this line really open 8 1/2? Because it's 14 1/2 right now.
29:56
And if you're getting 14 1/2, I don't think I'm crazy to to lean
30:00
Michigan State here just because I mean, that hook in a game with
30:05
a somewhat low total is always enticing.
30:08
I mean, like Pete said, big rivalry game, night game.
30:11
But, you know, I mean, this, this is a game where I think
30:15
Underwood's got to like, you know, tell, tell the rest of the
30:19
Big 10 in the country that, all right, you know what, I've
30:21
arrived. And this is certainly the
30:22
defense to do it against because Michigan State is terrible on
30:26
the defensive side of the ball. But at the same time, taking
30:31
that 14 1/2, I'm scared to trust Dayton Childs to do anything
30:34
against his Michigan defense. I mean, it's not the Michigan
30:36
defensive hold, but it's still hell of a lot better than what
30:39
the Spartans are putting out there.
30:42
If I had a lean on the side just because of the hook, I would
30:45
probably go Michigan State, but I would not feel good about it.
30:50
Something tells me this is an Underwood special.
30:52
I I think he balls out here. Yeah, I don't see that.
30:55
I I mean, I like the points. I would definitely take the
30:57
points. Historically, this game has been
30:59
low scoring and close most of the time.
31:01
Occasionally something weird happens, but for the most part
31:03
it's low scoring and close. So I'm kind of leaning into
31:05
history here as well, just because Michigan State may not
31:07
be good, but they're going to come out fired up as this is
31:10
like their season, you know, just like when we play Ohio
31:13
State. So they're going to play well in
31:14
the first half. Now they get blown out of the
31:15
water in the second-half. I don't know, but it should be
31:17
close at least through the first half.
31:20
OK, well we're cruising along this week.
31:22
We're going to our last game here.
31:23
We've got Wisconsin at Oregon. Well, Oregon leads the series
31:29
four to three. They lost first three, won the
31:31
last four and big surprise. Hey guys, it's going to rain in
31:35
Oregon this weekend. No.
31:37
Go serious. Hey, get that Almanac out.
31:40
I guess so. So yeah, we got Wisconsin at
31:44
Oregon, Oregon five and two against the spread, Wisconsin
31:47
two and five. That's most people can probably
31:49
have guessed something that similar.
31:52
What you think of Pete? Totals 44 1/2.
31:55
I don't trust Oregon. I don't trust Washington to
31:57
travel out there and do much of anything at all.
31:59
I'll be shocked if they actually get off the plane, to be honest
32:03
with you. So I don't think Wisconsin's
32:04
going to score much of anything. Oregon hasn't been overly
32:08
impressive to me either. They've been good, but they
32:10
haven't. They've had a few kind of wet
32:12
downs at times here this year. So, yeah, I mean, 44 1/2, I
32:15
think it's a really strong under that here.
32:18
Heck, I mean, it's possible that Oregon come out and score 40
32:21
points at home. Wisconsin may score 3.
32:23
This will still go under, right? So I think that's fine.
32:26
That rain is going to suppress Oregon's ability to fling the
32:29
ball around a bit, and I think it will rain.
32:32
So, yeah, I mean, to me, this is, I don't care what Oregon
32:35
does. They're going to score some
32:35
points. Wisconsin's going to do
32:37
absolutely nothing and so unless Oregon goes ape shit, which in
32:41
the rain they probably can't go that ape shit.
32:44
I think this is a pretty strong under.
32:45
So that's that's my play here. Not bad.
32:50
I I would lean, I would just initially I would think Oregon
32:53
could score that by themselves. But yeah, I guess with the rain
32:56
and they haven't been too explosive.
32:58
It's not like it's Indiana or anything.
32:59
So we'll see what happens with that one.
33:02
What are you thinking, Darren? I honestly, guys, I had nothing
33:06
on this game. I mean, we, we also saw
33:07
Wisconsin Saturday night. We were out eating.
33:10
I mean, God, they haven't scored.
33:12
I mean, now, yeah, they've played Ohio State and Iowa their
33:14
last two games, two really, really good defenses.
33:17
But I mean, 0 points in two home games, come on, man.
33:21
And now you're flying 2/3 of the way across the country to take
33:25
on a team that's, you know, that's looks pretty legit, you
33:30
know, should certainly be a playoff team and maybe win a
33:32
playoff game or two. But my God, by the way,
33:35
coacheshotseat.com was chatting with Mark the other day.
33:38
He says Fickle's not getting fired till the end of the year
33:41
at the soonest, which I do not understand.
33:44
Maybe it's a buyout thing. I have no idea.
33:46
But if you can pay 50 million to get rid of James Franklin, I
33:48
don't even know why the buyouts matter anymore.
33:51
But yeah, when the spread's 34 and the total's 44, that it's a
33:57
lot. It's just I I just kind of stay
34:00
away from those myself. Probably won't even watch too
34:05
much of this one to be honest with you.
34:09
Well, should we move along to the RPO segment?
34:15
Here we go. Start us off, Darren.
34:19
Ole Miss getting 5 1/2 at Oklahoma.
34:27
I've got some thoughts. So one of you guys, one of you 2
34:29
want to go first. I just want to bring up a a
34:32
point, but I'll save. My again Lane Kiffin, I am not
34:36
involved out. Total total on this one is 54
34:41
1/2. I, I consider the under here
34:44
because, because I think they have two good fronts on both
34:46
sides. So it'll be interesting, but
34:47
honestly I I couldn't touch it. We talked last week about how
34:53
Matt Rule is being floated around for the Penn State job
34:55
and how they may be unprepared. You know, they were a 7 1/2
34:58
point favorite at Minnesota last week.
35:01
They didn't cover. They didn't win.
35:02
They didn't even get an offensive touchdown.
35:05
Now all of a sudden neighbor gets fired.
35:07
Who do the boosters want to run? Florida Lane Kiffin.
35:11
Good luck. Throw in how?
35:13
Throw in how they lost that Georgia game last week up by 9
35:16
and gave up 17 in the fourth quarter.
35:19
Mateers has got another week to heal up his hand.
35:22
I I would take the Sooners here. Nope, hard pass.
35:29
Easiest one for me to hold it all.
35:33
Right next South Florida laying 4 1/2 at Memphis, a very
35:37
important battle conference wise.
35:40
Any thoughts here? I would run and bet South
35:43
Florida. I think they they're, yeah, the
35:47
South Florida Memphis hasn't been overly impressive, to say
35:52
the least. I don't think so.
35:54
Agreed. Yeah, that makes sense.
35:56
I like that. The total on this, it was 63
35:58
1/2. It's pretty high.
36:00
Gut. Gut would say go under an X.
36:02
It's a big number, but who the heck knows with these two teams.
36:04
So I just stayed away from it. Bama laying 11 1/2 at South
36:08
Carolina. Pete.
36:12
Yeah, I, I think the number was with 47 1/2 on this thing.
36:16
And I, I thought the under just because South Carolina is hot
36:20
garbage and I don't, and I don't think Bama's going to come out
36:23
and score, you know, 45 points themselves probably.
36:26
But I wasn't very sure of that. So I just tried to stay away
36:30
from it. But yeah, I think, I think Bama
36:32
from the points perspective, I would lay those points with Bama
36:34
all day, Deb. I'm going to run to Bama.
36:40
I'm the other. I think Bama's just going to
36:41
roll him easy. Yeah, I mean, every week I just
36:46
question how the hell did this team lose to Florida State?
36:49
I mean, it's just, yeah, I know everybody's got one ass game.
36:54
Maybe Bama just got theirs out of the way early.
36:56
But yeah, I don't know, the way they're playing, how you know
36:59
this is this is almost like a bye week when you look at their
37:01
their last four games. I mean, I yeah, I don't know why
37:04
you wouldn't lay it here with the South Carolina, Illinois
37:08
travelling across the country, getting 4 points, going to Tim's
37:11
favorite Big 10 location, Washington, to play the Huskies.
37:13
Tim, what do you think? Well, I already know Tim.
37:15
What you think to tell us anyway?
37:17
Run Washington, bet him. Yep, easy analysis right there.
37:24
Pete Big 10 guy, what do you what say you?
37:26
Yeah, A. Total of 55 1/2.
37:28
I think this is going to be a sneaky good game.
37:30
I really think this is going to be a close game that will be
37:33
pretty high, high, high octane. I think it could be quite
37:37
interesting if the weather is OK, which I didn't look to see
37:39
what it was going to be there probably rain.
37:41
I don't know since it's going to be raining stayed over.
37:44
But yeah, could be I'm I want, this is a game I want to watch,
37:47
but I didn't like that number, so I didn't touch it.
37:50
What'd you say that total was? I had 55 1/2.
37:55
Yeah, I would lean over there. I would lean over.
37:58
There for sure. Yeah, I think it's going to be
37:59
fun. 4138 some along those lines.
38:03
Absolutely, if the weather's good, if it's not pouring or
38:05
something for. Sure.
38:07
Yeah. All right.
38:08
Another one of Tim's favorite teams, A&M laying 2 1/2 at LSU.
38:15
Oh, poor LSU. Pete, we'll let you go first
38:18
because I'm sure Tim has some nice things to say about A&M.
38:22
I'll probably say the same thing here.
38:23
He's going to say which I take an A&M and lay those points all
38:26
day. LS U's offense has not looked
38:28
like I expected LS U's offense to do what I still think has the
38:32
best quarterback, at least pro ready quarterback.
38:35
But the rest of their offense is it's not clicking, it's not
38:37
working. They're missing some tools
38:39
there. So I would lay that 2 1/2 all
38:41
day. I'm leaning that way, but I just
38:45
think the college football gods don't want me to have nice
38:47
things. So I would probably bet LSU here
38:50
just because of that. I I can just see them pulling
38:53
together for one night and totally ruining my A&M euphoria
38:57
here for their great season. So hearts, hearts is A&M, the
39:02
brain and the guts telling me LSU on this one, actually.
39:05
That's that's all that's fair. I mean, LSU at night, Brian
39:09
Kelly usually doesn't lose these type of games.
39:11
But I know man, I'm going to say that A&M's defensive effort last
39:18
week, if you want to call it that was, was maybe their their
39:22
ass game. Hopefully they get it back.
39:26
If they get out of this game with a win, look out here now.
39:29
Now they're in the driver's seat for for a championship game and
39:33
all that and that. That yeah, 'cause that, that
39:36
don't they end against Texas again?
39:37
I mean, jeez, if they play Texas at the end of the season again,
39:39
that shouldn't even be Tex A&M should be favored by 6 map
39:42
already. Ah, Speaking of the Penn State's
39:45
own mat rule. He is at home.
39:48
He is late. 7 1/2 to this smokin hot Northwestern Wildcats.
39:53
Just from a number play, I would take Northwestern.
39:55
I can't trust Nebraska, but Tim, what do you think?
39:59
I'm going to actually trust Nebraska.
40:01
If I was going to run to this one, I I would take Nebraska.
40:05
Give the points. Yeah, totals 43 1/2.
40:09
I'm just going to go back to the Terence that earlier.
40:11
I don't know where Nebraska's head is right now.
40:13
I mean, they're their coach is probably out the door here and I
40:16
I don't, I don't know if he's just there, they don't they're
40:18
not want to play anymore or whatever.
40:20
I I wouldn't touch this thing. So I have no idea what
40:22
Nebraska's going to do. If I was forced to do something
40:24
here, I would probably take Northwestern the points, but I'm
40:27
not doing anything. Another huge rivalry game,
40:30
Kansas hosting Kansas State. Kansas State getting 3 1/2.
40:35
Pete, what do you think about this one?
40:37
Should be fun. So totals 56 1/2.
40:41
I was leaning over. I obviously didn't play it, but
40:43
I thought about it because I think it could be a very fun
40:47
kind of shootout game. Perhaps we'll see how that plays
40:50
itself out. But yeah, that's where I would
40:52
be leaning. But yeah, I didn't play it here.
40:55
Tim, thoughts? Pass Hard pass on this one.
40:59
I haven't seen enough of either of these those two teams this
41:01
year to even play. Yeah, I mean, I was impressed
41:04
with Candace early on, but some of their defensive losses have
41:07
have started to show up here in the last few weeks.
41:10
Kansas State, Dylan Edwards, man, congratulations.
41:12
You're the you're the new Cam Rising of college football.
41:15
We never know from week to week what the hell you're doing.
41:16
So unless you know Dylan Edwards and you know whether he's
41:20
playing or not, I would just avoid this game altogether.
41:24
Tim, I didn't put this one in here as a dig or anything.
41:27
I just thought our thoughts on how Miami would respond was the
41:31
only reason I put this one in here.
41:34
They are at home. They are laying 30 1/2.
41:38
Run to the window. Lay that 30 1/2 all day long.
41:43
They are going to destroy. Stanford should stay home
41:48
because it is not going to be pretty.
41:50
From the second thing of the bus to the minute they leave that
41:53
field, they are going to get absolutely firebombed by a
41:56
pissed off Miami. Team, if it was any other team,
41:58
I would have bet that game, but I, you know, I hate Miami, so I
42:00
don't know, but they're going. To They could win by 60.
42:03
They might score 60I. Was going to say, I was thinking
42:05
like 56 to 14 or something. This just screams, yeah, Miami's
42:12
got to be mad. But yeah, anyway, all right.
42:17
And the last one, Arizona's top receiver are going to miss this
42:21
game. A little hammy injury, I
42:22
believe, but they are still currently laying 7 to Houston.
42:27
Nice Big 12 match up here. What do you guys think, Tim?
42:29
We'll start with you. My first thought was Arizona
42:31
State. I like them, but my initial
42:35
after. Afterthought is just passing us
42:38
all together. I'm not liking it.
42:42
Yeah, total is 46 1/2. I thought about going over on
42:46
this at a slight lean on it and I decided I just does not very
42:49
comfortable with with all of it, so I just stepped away.
42:52
So yeah, I did nothing here. Yeah, yeah.
42:56
Losing that receiver I think is going to hurt Arizona State and
43:00
Houston. I watched them September when I
43:03
was in Florida. You know, they took down
43:05
Colorado, but that's not really saying a whole heck of a lot.
43:07
But yeah, whenever a key injury happens, you don't know how
43:11
that's going to affect the team. So I just, I would pass on this
43:14
one as well. All right.
43:19
Well, let's recap what we got, Pete.
43:22
And look at that beautiful record, 15 and 17.
43:25
I'm, I'm cruising here -3 1/2 units.
43:27
That's great. All right, so Michigan, Michigan
43:30
State under 48 1/2. As I said, historically, even if
43:34
Michigan State's not any good, they come out like fire and play
43:36
well against the team. So I expect to be suppressed in
43:39
terms of scoring. Texas, Mississippi State under
43:41
44 1/2. I have absolutely 0 faith in
43:44
Texas and their offense right now and Wisconsin.
43:47
Oregon under 44 1/2 sandwich Wisconsin.
43:49
They said they didn't score twice at home.
43:52
I don't know how they're traveling to Oregon and scoring
43:55
anything so. So those are my 3 for this week.
43:58
All right, I got Western Kentucky Louisiana Tech over
44:00
that one already hit so gave me. I also I'm playing 2 units on
44:05
Arkansas money line over Auburn. I have Virginia -10 1/2 over
44:10
North Carolina and TCU versus West Virginia over 55 and a
44:16
half. Darren.
44:17
And I'm already on one this week.
44:19
Shout out to the Delaware head coach who got a win and Cashes
44:22
Middle Tennessee State plus 8 1/2 ticket, which he obviously
44:25
had. If you saw some of that play
44:26
calling. Also, Iowa State, little fade of
44:29
BYU here after their big game against Utah.
44:32
Lane 2 1/2, Bandy, the year of the Pabia Mafia, Baby Lay the 2
44:36
1/2 over Missouri, and again, no faith in Texas to score points
44:40
here. As long as that stays at 7,
44:42
which is what I got, I will take Mississippi State fighting
44:45
cowbells with seven points over Texas.
44:49
All right, all right, Well, I'll wrap it up for us.
44:51
Thank you all for listening. Don't forget to please like and
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44:56
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Please like, leave a review, leave a comment, let us know
45:02
what you're betting on. We'll be we'll be happy to hear
45:04
from you. This has been targeting winners
45:07
Week 9. Thank you all for listening.