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Corn to China? · Professional Ag Marketing Podcast

• 0:02
  SPEAKER_00: You're locked in to the Grain Market Talk Podcast.
• 0:06
  SPEAKER_00: Fast updates, market movers, and the grain news you need right now.
• 0:11
  SPEAKER_00: Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors.
• 0:21
  SPEAKER_01: All right, today is September 25th.
• 0:24
  SPEAKER_01: I've got Jaden here with us.
• 0:25
  SPEAKER_01: We're gonna do a green podcast.
• 0:27
  SPEAKER_01: How's it going, Jaden?
• 0:28
  SPEAKER_01: It's going good, Mike.
• 0:29
  SPEAKER_01: All by yourself.
• 0:30
  SPEAKER_01: Not too bad.
• 0:30
  SPEAKER_01: We're gonna talk about three main topics today.
• 0:32
  SPEAKER_01: We're gonna have weather, we're gonna have soybean basis in the Western Corn Belt, and we're gonna have China.
• 0:38
  SPEAKER_01: How's that sound?
• 0:39
  SPEAKER_02: Sounds good to me.
• 0:40
  SPEAKER_01: It's still raining.
• 0:41
  SPEAKER_02: Still raining, it won't stop.
• 0:44
  SPEAKER_01: We can't get in the field.
• 0:46
  SPEAKER_01: Only some little acres here and there seem to have been taken out locally.
• 0:51
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, but man, I'll tell you what, it doesn't look any better in the forecast here, really, does it?
• 0:56
  SPEAKER_02: No, Mike.
• 0:56
  SPEAKER_02: If Kate pulls up the forecast there, you look over the next seven days.
• 1:00
  SPEAKER_02: Uh specifically Iowa, eastern Nebraska, and those places are already getting hit pretty hard.
• 1:05
  SPEAKER_02: Uh some farmers in the area are are getting pretty pretty worried.
• 1:10
  SPEAKER_02: I'm hearing reports of soybeans germinating in the pods.
• 1:13
  SPEAKER_02: Uh, don't like to hear that.
• 1:15
  SPEAKER_02: But yeah, over the next week, looks like some of those areas will see three to four inches of rain.
• 1:19
  SPEAKER_02: And over the last week they've probably had about that too as well.
• 1:22
  SPEAKER_01: That's about more than we had all year, right?
• 1:24
  SPEAKER_01: In some of these spots.
• 1:26
  SPEAKER_01: So it's gonna be a long harvest here to kick off, it looks like, as the end of September is approaching quick.
• 1:32
  SPEAKER_01: This coming after, it looked like we're gonna have a quick harvest.
• 1:35
  SPEAKER_01: So a little depressing from that front.
• 1:38
  SPEAKER_01: Any early yield harvest uh data you've been hearing, Jaden?
• 1:41
  SPEAKER_01: I know the the corn that's been getting taken out, if you go around like Brookings, for example, has been better than what we expected it to be.
• 1:49
  SPEAKER_01: Same with soybeans.
• 1:50
  SPEAKER_01: So some better reports, maybe than I thought.
• 1:53
  SPEAKER_01: In the Western Corn Belt, I would just say from what I've heard so far is that the really bad area that I thought we had is shrinking.
• 2:01
  SPEAKER_01: It's not as bad around those fringes as what we expected.
• 2:05
  SPEAKER_01: Where it's really bad, it's still bad.
• 2:07
  SPEAKER_01: We knew that coming forward.
• 2:08
  SPEAKER_01: Just that fringe of that bad area isn't quite as big as what we expected it to be.
• 2:14
  SPEAKER_02: Right, Mike.
• 2:14
  SPEAKER_02: And hearing reports, the guys are combining fields here.
• 2:18
  SPEAKER_02: It's just very highly variable throughout the field.
• 2:20
  SPEAKER_02: You know, you're combining zero bushel, then you'll be combining 250 bushel of corn.
• 2:24
  SPEAKER_02: So very highly variable.
• 2:26
  SPEAKER_02: It's really hard to put a real good yield estimate out there with what we've seen so far.
• 2:31
  SPEAKER_01: Now, on the soybean side, uh, interesting thing there has been there hasn't been a ton of progress, just some early stuff here and there.
• 2:38
  SPEAKER_01: But what has been harvested is almost all being delivered to town because of the fantastic opportunity.
• 2:45
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, you've seen what Sioux City has posted a dollar over, Brewster went to 70 over today.
• 2:51
  SPEAKER_01: If Cade pulls that up, um Volga hasn't moved much, they're still 1500 and they won't really budge, so they must not need the soybeans.
• 2:58
  SPEAKER_01: Maybe they're gonna shut down, slow down idle for a little bit.
• 3:01
  SPEAKER_01: Same with Sheldon.
• 3:02
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, I heard they're gonna do the same.
• 3:04
  SPEAKER_01: But this basis opportunity in the West Western corn belt's been fantastic on soybeans to start off this crop.
• 3:10
  SPEAKER_01: We didn't carry many soybean bushels into this marketing year from last year.
• 3:15
  SPEAKER_01: There was a little carryover, and now with that delayed harvest start, it's been a little unexpected, hasn't it?
• 3:22
  SPEAKER_02: Right, Mike.
• 3:22
  SPEAKER_02: And I I think this tells a story of raising acres year over year, about about four million acres on soybeans, and yet ending stocks, you know, are still around that 300 million bushel mark.
• 3:32
  SPEAKER_02: So maybe going forward, that is friendly, you know, the other commodities well as corn and wheat, because we might just have to plant more soybean acres to, you know, fit our needs here.
• 3:42
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, so fantastic basis opportunity on the soybeans start off with huge premiums if you can get them there.
• 3:48
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, definitely look around in the Western Corn Belt for that.
• 3:51
  SPEAKER_01: Corn, not so much, really no early harvest basis premium here.
• 3:55
  SPEAKER_01: It seems like uh we keep finding enough old crop bushels to get us by for the time being, and it's not quite as uh getting as late, I should say, on corn.
• 4:04
  SPEAKER_01: If you look, it's funny because like harvest progress for the US, we're actually ahead of pace still as of Monday for corn and soybeans both, but uh after this week we'll be behind.
• 4:13
  SPEAKER_01: So that'll be something to keep an eye on Monday.
• 4:15
  SPEAKER_01: But that forecast is pretty wet.
• 4:17
  SPEAKER_01: What can you tell me about you know it's Friday today?
• 4:20
  SPEAKER_01: Huge market movements uh going into the weekend here.
• 4:24
  SPEAKER_01: Tell me about some of the erratic trade that we've had in the past uh you know half a day.
• 4:29
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, Mike.
• 4:30
  SPEAKER_02: So looking at that minute corn chart Cade pulled up there of March corn.
• 4:33
  SPEAKER_02: So I was kind of on my computer last night watching the open, you know, just open lower out of the gate, just kind of kept, you know, selling off there as you know, Trump and G did meet, and we didn't see any specific headlines of any agricultural purchases.
• 4:46
  SPEAKER_02: So, and that's what the trade is looking for.
• 4:47
  SPEAKER_02: Pretty bold up on the idea of China purchase purchasing U.S.
• 4:51
  SPEAKER_02: corn.
• 4:52
  SPEAKER_02: But as you can see there, kind of just sold off until about the open there around 8:30.
• 4:57
  SPEAKER_02: And then we had a little headline come out that said, Details on the U.S.
• 5:00
  SPEAKER_02: and China trade negotiations are coming out Monday, according to Greer, there.
• 5:05
  SPEAKER_02: So now the trade uh that's gonna offer them a little more hope.
• 5:08
  SPEAKER_02: And they did kind of buy that headline, uh, maybe thinking maybe we'll see some sort of headline here on Monday.
• 5:15
  SPEAKER_02: And the last time these two kind of met was back in May.
• 5:18
  SPEAKER_02: We kind of had similar fashion.
• 5:20
  SPEAKER_02: They met end of the week, didn't see any details, and then Sunday night, the White House did come out with a fact sheet um stating what China supposedly committed to, and then we saw the market move higher on that on Monday.
• 5:31
  SPEAKER_02: Not saying we're gonna see the same thing, but watch for something uh was similar fashion happening there.
• 5:36
  SPEAKER_01: Well, what do we do know so far is that the trade rep Greer said that the US and China have reached an agreement covering a subset of non-sensitive goods that could be traded on favorable terms.
• 5:48
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, they will release more details Monday, but won't specify what products are being covered, how tariffs could change, or when the terms will take effect.
• 5:58
  SPEAKER_01: So any market moving news, we're pretty much in the dark until Monday.
• 6:02
  SPEAKER_01: But when that headline came out, that did give the market a little bit of a hope and especially made it an easier buy here this morning after that headline came out.
• 6:11
  SPEAKER_01: So uh the agreements are being negotiated between the uh US-China Board Trade uh mechanism and are meant to keep certain commercial flows separate from future tariff uh disputes here.
• 6:24
  SPEAKER_01: So we'll see as those talks continue to develop here today.
• 6:28
  SPEAKER_01: Gil head home and uh we'll get more news about this thing on Monday, it would appear.
• 6:32
  SPEAKER_01: It's gonna be pretty hard, I would assume, for Trump to stay off truth social about any of this in the meantime over the weekend.
• 6:40
  SPEAKER_01: Always scary thought as you have markets closed, uh, while some of that sensitive material could be potentially coming out.
• 6:47
  SPEAKER_01: So uh a crazy day on the markets, specifically corn, soybeans.
• 6:53
  SPEAKER_01: Wheat did have an interesting trading session as well, with progress made between one opening the Strait of Hormuz between Iran and the US and some de uh de-escalation and uh and uh trade um you know opening up there a little bit between many countries.
• 7:08
  SPEAKER_01: It also looks like the uh Rush Ukraine situation's de-escalated a little bit there.
• 7:12
  SPEAKER_01: So wheat market now buck off in some contract months from where we were.
• 7:17
  SPEAKER_01: Uh that one's had a lot of pressure on it as well lately.
• 7:20
  SPEAKER_01: So they've been selling off the grains pretty tough, not just corn and wheat, but uh soybeans as well as the oil seed has been getting pulled down by those two.
• 7:28
  SPEAKER_02: Any other final thoughts for our listeners this week?
• 7:31
  SPEAKER_02: Well, Mike, I would just say to anyone out there there's a lot of different headlines being thrown at these grain markets, whether you talk about the US, Iran, uh, Ukraine, Russia, or the China and US negotiations, creating some volatility, but also some opportunities.
• 7:45
  SPEAKER_02: Did test near contract ties on both corn and soybeans earlier in the week.
• 7:49
  SPEAKER_02: So, you know, look for some volatility, but some opportunity should come along with it.
• 7:53
  SPEAKER_01: All right, and to the rest of you, please hit the subscribe button.
• 7:56
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• 8:01
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• 8:02
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• 8:04
  SPEAKER_01: Thank you.
• 8:04
  SPEAKER_01: Please click the link on the description description below to access things like our daily market commentary and other cool market research.
• 8:11
  SPEAKER_01: Thanks, Jaden.
• 8:12
  SPEAKER_01: Thanks, Kate.