Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast - NBA Playoffs Best Bets

Transcript

The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast - NBA Playoffs Best Bets · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: The Favorite podcast is presented by FanDuel Sports Book. There's
• 0:04
  Speaker 1: no better place to make every moment more than with FanDuel.
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: I bet with FanDuel because they're safe and secure, they
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: offer great odds and markets across the NBA, n HL
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: and more, and because it's fun to combine multiple bets
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: into same game parlays. So if you're new, just download
• 0:21
  Speaker 1: the FanDuel Sports Book app to get started now. Sign
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: up with promo code Favorites so they know I sent you.
• 0:29
  Speaker 1: You must be over in president in Arizona, Colorado, Connecticut, Indiana, Michigan,
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: New Jersey, New York, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia or Louisiana.
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: Gambling problem called one eight hundred next step or text
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: next step to five three three four two in Arizona
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: one eight hundred gambler or visit FanDuel dot com slash
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: r G in Colorado, Indiana, New Jersey. In Virginia one
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: eight seven eight nine seven seven seven seven or visit
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: CCPG dot org slash chat in Connecticut one eight seven
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: zero seven one one seven for confidential help in Michigan
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: one eight seventh s t o P in Louisiana called
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: the Tennessee Redline one eight nine or visit one eight
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: Gambler dot net in West Virginia. Welcome to The Favorites.
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: I am not Chad Melman. I work for a living.
• 1:22
  Speaker 1: My name is Matt Moore. I'm the senior NBA writer
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: for the Action Network for this NBA playoff edition of
• 1:29
  Speaker 1: The Favorites. Thanks for joining us from the Volume Podcast Network.
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: The Favorites is here talk NBA Playoffs with Jason Tamp
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: from the Volume Podcast Network. Jason, how you doing. I'm good.
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: What's up, guys? Thanks for having me on. I appreciate it. Yeah,
• 1:45
  Speaker 1: excited to have you. I'm sure that you things have
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: cleared up for you. Now that the Lakers of you know,
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: finish their season in a giant ball of flame, I
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: get to actually watch and enjoy and talk about good
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: basketball now. I'm very, very excited. Also joining me is
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: Simon Hunter, for who I will not lavish with praise
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: the way that Chad Melman field and need to every
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: single week. Simon, I just want to let you know
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: I appreciate your work and I'm glad you're here. I'm
• 2:08
  Speaker 1: glad to talk basketball with you. Thanks man. Yeah, honestly
• 2:11
  Speaker 1: I do need it though, That's why Chad does it.
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: I'm very mentally weak, so every week I need him
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: to reaffirm our friendship. So good, But I did my
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: life end up where I'm here working this show and
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: Chad's on vacation, and not even that, I'm got to
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: bring Matt Mitchell in here, who writes up our details
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: of our podcast. I looked last week someone sent to me.
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: They called me Chad sidekick. I'm not robbing. Stop calling
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: me robin to this man's batman? What is? What is happening?
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: So if I don't know if it's you met or
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: for Drury, but who call me a sidekick? One more time?
• 2:43
  Speaker 1: I dare you call me a sidekick one more time?
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: That obviously that was me? And it's funny you'll think
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: this is a lie, but I thought I'll say sidekick
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: because Simon will never read this and I didn't. Someone
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: sent it to you said your Chad sidekick. Oh my god,
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: that's very pleasing that you found its way back to you,
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: So thanks Simon. Alright, let's talk some NBA playoffs. We're
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: recording this on Tuesday around noon mountain time, Tuesday afternoon eastern.
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: Uh so we're not gonna talk about the playing games
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: because we have no idea who's gonna win and who's
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: gonna be in what spot. But we're gonna go over
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: the seas that we know and get you some ideas
• 3:19
  Speaker 1: and some best bets on those. Let's start with Simon's
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: hometown team, those Philadelphia seventies six ers. But they're oh
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: so delightful fans that have been my mentions for the
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: past four months about the m v P race taking
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: on the Toronto Raptors. This is, in my opinion, this
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: is the trendy upset pick. This is the one that
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: I think is going to be the public dog that
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: everyone's like, you know, I really like hot take here.
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: I like the Raptors, which is making me real nervous.
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: We'll get to my best bet on it. But look,
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: Joel Embiid probably gonna finish second or third in m
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: v P voting from nominal season. He's gonna draw off
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: fouls in this matchup. It should be the opportunity for
• 3:58
  Speaker 1: him to step into the spot light as a pre
• 4:00
  Speaker 1: eminent big man in the NBA versus a team that's
• 4:03
  Speaker 1: rolling out Kem Birch and Precious A Chua and Chris
• 4:07
  Speaker 1: Bouche at center, So this is a pretty good matchup
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: for them in terms of that, but the Raptors have
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: really given him trouble. My bigger question, though Jason is here. Look,
• 4:17
  Speaker 1: James Harden has a pretty spotty playoff history. It goes
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: back several years. He started off really great with the
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: Sixers and then there's kind of been a tailspin. Do
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: you think that Harden can finally have the postseason that
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: everyone's been waiting on and he can help and b
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: carry this team to a title or at least path
• 4:35
  Speaker 1: of Raptors in the four or five matchup. I think
• 4:38
  Speaker 1: that ship is sailed. Man Um, there's some really concerning
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: stuff with James Harden, even beyond the postseason now, stretching
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: into what we've seen of late. Like you referenced in
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: his two matchups with the Raptors this season, he's eight
• 4:51
  Speaker 1: for twenty four from the field, one for eight from three,
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: and he has twenty three assists to go with nine turnovers.
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: And the biggest issue is he doesn't have the burst
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: to beat people off the dribble as well as he
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: used to, and the people don't understand how important that
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: is to everything in his game because when he has
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: defenders on his heat on their heels, that opens up
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: his step back, which allows him to get separations. So
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: that's a quality shot. But when he's not beating people
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: off the dribble, defenders are up on their toes, they're
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: crowding him. Now he's not getting a ton of separation
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: on that step back. Now he's trying to draw fouls
• 5:25
  Speaker 1: instead of get quality shots. Not to mention the way
• 5:27
  Speaker 1: him getting into the paint opens up his playmaking games.
• 5:31
  Speaker 1: So like you're you know, and then we get into
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: the postseason, and now you're talking about the way that
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: limits his ability to foul grift and the amount of
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: physicality that is allowed in that setting, the way fatigue
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: plays a role. And then the other thing with James Harden,
• 5:44
  Speaker 1: he's a very repetitive basketball player. He doesn't have a
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: ton of variety to the way he attacks you, which
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: makes him directly susceptible to late series struggles because defensive
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: players start to pick up on his cues, the little
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: things that he does to hint at one move or
• 5:58
  Speaker 1: one read or things along those lines. In a postseason series,
• 6:02
  Speaker 1: variety is what wins. This is what has made guys
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: like Lebron so dominant over the years as the many
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: different ways that he can come at you. So I'm
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: worried about that. And then quite frankly, the Raptors are
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: a really really good help team. They overcrowd on ball handlers,
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: and they do a lot of stunting and doubling and
• 6:21
  Speaker 1: and uh and crowding one side of the floor. And
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: the Sixers do not generate a ton of three point shots,
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: which is something that seriously concerns me. And the last,
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: but not least, Joel Embiid three matchups with the Raptors
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: this year, only eight assists with eight turnovers in three games.
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: He's not grad at handling double teams. He's straight up
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: told that to JJ Reddick the other day on his
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: pot talking about how the Raptors were the best defense
• 6:42
  Speaker 1: to guard him this year with their ability to crowd
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: him and make things uncomfortable. I will be picking the
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: Raptors in this series in six games. I unfortunately it
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: is the trendy pick, but it is based on on
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: what I've seen in the basketball. I just think this
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: is a terrible matchup for Philly, in the worst possible
• 6:58
  Speaker 1: draw that could have got for that first yeah, you know,
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: the Raptors are gonna switch a lot. This is where
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: the part part of the problem. Harden likes to pick
• 7:04
  Speaker 1: on whoever the weak spot is. He wants to force
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: you has switched and then he wants to go one
• 7:08
  Speaker 1: on one and pick on you. This is a hard
• 7:10
  Speaker 1: one for him to do because the Raptors are just like,
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: we have like nine dudes that are all six eight
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: and they're all athletic, and then we have Fred van Bleet,
• 7:17
  Speaker 1: who's a pain. Who do you want like make your
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: poison deal with whatever you want? Uh, Simon before you
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: get the best bets. I kind of think Tyrese max
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: is actually gonna have a bigger impact in the series
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: than Harden. Uh if if they were to flame out,
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: what's the filly reaction gonna be for Harden? I mean,
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: we're all just hoping he doesn't get paid. Like to me,
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: I think most Philip fans like me are just looking
• 7:41
  Speaker 1: as a positive. It's like, yeah, Harden is not what
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: he was, but is he better than what Ben Simmons
• 7:46
  Speaker 1: was giving us? Yes, Ben Simon was a zero. So
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: I look at the stat that it's to me, it's
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: been Harden is more of taking a step back and
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: looked at Max. He's saying, I'm not the number two guy.
• 7:56
  Speaker 1: You are. You need to play like that. I'm the
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: old man over here. And I know that Philly fans
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: want to hear that, but that's just the way I've
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: looked at hard and taking a step back. And I
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: know we're not gonna talk about MVP race, but you
• 8:06
  Speaker 1: said they're in your damns about it. I think it's
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: just because as the Sixers fans were like, and Beads
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: being shipped on by everyone in the media because he
• 8:13
  Speaker 1: gets free throws. That's like shooting on Barry Bonds because
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: Barry Bonds would get walked a lot. Is it really
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: his fault that he's one of the most efficient players
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: in basketball that you're big man's failing out because he's
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: getting into the free throw line. So I know that's
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: a different discussion, but I I look at this Sixers
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: team that I most years would say they're gonna flame
• 8:31
  Speaker 1: in the first round. But because the embiid m VP stuff,
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: I think he's gonna be on the next level. I
• 8:37
  Speaker 1: think this Maxi has really been coming into form these
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: last couple of weeks, So I I see why people
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: picking Toronto as a sleeper dog, but I really do
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: think that's gonna benefit the Sixers and Sixers are just
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: gonna be slept on like they had been all year.
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: So I actually liked him this matchup, but I think
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: it's good value at what is it? Um? I don't
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: know what the line opened at, but I remember seeing
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: that it started to move a little bit. Like you
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: said the public money was coming on Toronto. Now that's
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: coming back. I guess professionals are on the six or so.
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: I'm just hearing what your best bet is here, Matt. Yeah. So,
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: by the way, on the drifting thing, you're absolutely right.
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: I did a big breakdown on Action Network. You can
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: find it that goes into the details. He absolutely gets fouled.
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: Like I went through and was like, he sells the
• 9:16
  Speaker 1: hell out of it, but he absolutely just gets fouled constantly.
• 9:19
  Speaker 1: If you do the deep dive, you'll be like, God,
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: he sells it so bad. But it was a foul. Yeah,
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: let's talk best bets. My best bet here, I love
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: wind spreads. This to me is the best market on
• 9:30
  Speaker 1: these series prices. Sixers minus one and half is plus one.
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: So I'm getting the team with home court, the team
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: of the best player in the matchup, and I'm getting
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: them a plus number to basically win four two or better.
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: Here's a big key. The Raptors have the best half
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: court offense. They don't have shooters, Like I'm not. That's
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: not me saying that William lou does a great job
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: covering the Raptors talks about this all the time. They
• 9:54
  Speaker 1: don't have shooters and the Sixers don't generate a lot
• 9:57
  Speaker 1: of threes is part of Jason's argument, and he's right there.
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: But part of these is they've gotten a lot better
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: over the last since All Stars, since they added hardened.
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: Maxie was shooting like plus from three and Tobias Harris,
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: who started this season absolutely sucking and all of the
• 10:12
  Speaker 1: Philly hated him seven percent from three. Since All Star,
• 10:15
  Speaker 1: he's turned it up a lot. I think Max is
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: gonna take advantage of the other side of this matchup
• 10:20
  Speaker 1: because he's got a little bit of size on those
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: other guards in terms of his quickness. For the Raptors,
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: I just think they're the Sixers have too much offense.
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: I'm actually taking six years minus one and half plus
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: one at van duel. Jason, you like the Raptors just
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: to win the series out right plus one fifty. Yeah,
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: and I don't I like your bet because I wouldn't
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: be shocked if Philly one, you know, like they certainly
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: are the more talented team. The one ring because I've
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: been worried about Toronto's offense as well. The one wrinkle
• 10:50
  Speaker 1: is so the lineup of uh Fred VanVleet with Gary
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: Trent Jr. O g n and Obi Pascal and Scottie
• 10:58
  Speaker 1: Barnes has played fewer than four minutes this year. That's
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: their best line up in my opinion, in terms of
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: a combination of offensive firepower and defensive versatility. And that
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: group just hasn't been on the floor a lot this year.
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: So I do think you'll face a better rap And
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: I think uh O g Na Nobe did come back
• 11:17
  Speaker 1: on Sunday, so they will both be available in this series.
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: Him and Fred vanvleeve has been dealing with some knee stuff,
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: so I'm a hundred percent with you. I do think
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: Toronto will have a better offensive punch than they've shown
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: through much of the season. The way I look at it,
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: this series is pretty much a coin flip on my end.
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: I'm just picking Toronto to win because I think that
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: I think that what's gonna end up happening is it's
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: gonna come down to James Harden's ability to create offense
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: from the perimeter, and I just don't think he's gonna
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: be able to create enough of it. Simon, what do
• 11:46
  Speaker 1: you like in this one? Yeah, Honestly, if I'm just
• 11:50
  Speaker 1: going off pure value, I think the best value is
• 11:52
  Speaker 1: honestly on Toronto minus one and a half, just because
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: six years always choked. As a fan, I know this,
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: and Doc Rivers historically has choked other than that one
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: year with Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce and Ray Out. So
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: Sixers don't have three all of famers on their team
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: right now, So I'm I'm leaning towards the Sixers losing.
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: But obviously is a homer here. I've already bet Stixers
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: minus one and a half. But best value Toronto minus
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: wanting to half. Letus want to have all right, Uh,
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: let's go to Bucks Bulls. So I mean, I want
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: to ask you about this one, and we're not gonna
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: spend a lot of time on this one because this
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: is gonna be like this one's the one that's priced
• 12:24
  Speaker 1: the shortest in terms of how long the series is
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: gonna go. Um, Bucks are minus eleven to win the series,
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: Bulls are plus seven hundred. When you got a huge
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: matchup in any sort of sports betting situation where it
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: just seems like everybody's like, oh they're gonna kill him.
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: Oh this is gonna be a complete wipe out, what's
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: your instinct? Is your instinct to like if it's not?
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: If the market reflects that, right, It's not just that
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: it's a trendy spot here, but the market actually shows
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: that there's this wave in one direction. What's your instinct?
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: There is a better I see? I love the NBA.
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: That NBA is just keep a simple stupid. We know
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: who the best players are, we know what the best systems, Alrea,
• 13:00
  Speaker 1: you know what the best teams are. So I've probably
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: talked to tender from pros that this is their biggest
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: bet Bucks minus one and a half, and we've seen
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: that line running for the series price. So to me,
• 13:10
  Speaker 1: I'm all over the Bucks. The Bulls. We've seen him
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: this year. Right, every time you see them play a
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: good team, they lose. And that's just that's just who
• 13:17
  Speaker 1: they are. They just don't have the superstars to keep
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: them in games. The Bucks are locked in. They've only
• 13:23
  Speaker 1: gotten better at this second half of the season. So
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: I don't know about you guys, but I love the
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: Bucks and you're right, keep it simple. I'm just gonna
• 13:29
  Speaker 1: take that minus one and a half. Yeah, I got
• 13:31
  Speaker 1: minus two and a half of minus one seventy. That
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: to me is like on the series on the wind spread.
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: That to me, I'm willing to pay the seventy cents
• 13:37
  Speaker 1: on the on the dollar. They're just I'm okay with
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: that because I want to be able to cover it.
• 13:42
  Speaker 1: If you go for the sweep, right, you can get
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: the sweep of FanDuel at plus two seventy. Don't mind that.
• 13:49
  Speaker 1: I get a little worried about what we call it
• 13:51
  Speaker 1: the gentleman's sweep, which is you get back to Chicago,
• 13:55
  Speaker 1: the Bucks let up, You'll let them have one to
• 13:57
  Speaker 1: be polite, and you finish up at home. Like that
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: seems possible. The Bucks play drop coverage de Rosen and
• 14:03
  Speaker 1: Lavino nuts from mid range in one of the games,
• 14:06
  Speaker 1: they win the other game in Chicago, and we're out
• 14:08
  Speaker 1: of here in five. That seems like the most likely
• 14:10
  Speaker 1: scenario to me. Minus one, minus two and a half
• 14:13
  Speaker 1: minus one seventy. I gotta pay the seventy cents on it,
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: but I'm alright with that because it covers me in
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: case the Bucks just don't have And the Bucks also
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: have this these shooting nights where it's just like they're
• 14:23
  Speaker 1: getting wide open looks. Client, client, client, client client. Jason,
• 14:27
  Speaker 1: what's your best bet for Bucks bulls? So, I think
• 14:31
  Speaker 1: I think a sweep is very much within the realm
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: of possibility. I'm with you, though, I would go for
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: one just because of the type the type of thing
• 14:38
  Speaker 1: that happens in a playoff series where a team just
• 14:41
  Speaker 1: brings lackadaisical effort. You talked a lot about the Bucks
• 14:43
  Speaker 1: running drop coverage. Another big issue there is Vussovitch is
• 14:46
  Speaker 1: a great pick and pop big and one of the
• 14:49
  Speaker 1: best counters fort a drop coverage when the big has
• 14:51
  Speaker 1: to drop and the guard has to chase over the
• 14:53
  Speaker 1: top is to have a big flares out the three
• 14:55
  Speaker 1: point line. He's almost always wide open. The last time
• 14:57
  Speaker 1: they played, Vukovich got a lot of really good look
• 15:00
  Speaker 1: out of that kind of stuff. The main reason why
• 15:02
  Speaker 1: I would not be surprised by a sweep and the
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: reason why I think this series is going to be
• 15:06
  Speaker 1: so dominant for the for the Bucks is that when
• 15:09
  Speaker 1: you have a disadvantage in the Stars, which obviously we
• 15:12
  Speaker 1: can all agree that the top level talent on the
• 15:14
  Speaker 1: Bucks is way better. But usually if you're gonna be
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: able to gain some ground, it's because you have a
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: team advantage, something that your team does really well that
• 15:23
  Speaker 1: the other team does really poorly. And the gaping hole
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: anybody who's watched the Bucks this year, the gaping hole
• 15:28
  Speaker 1: with the Bucks as they overhelp and they give up
• 15:30
  Speaker 1: too many threes. They give up over twenty wide open
• 15:34
  Speaker 1: threes per games, so at least six ft away the
• 15:37
  Speaker 1: defensive player. They give up more than twenty of those
• 15:39
  Speaker 1: per game, So they give up tons of open threes.
• 15:43
  Speaker 1: But the Bulls attempt the fewest threes out of any
• 15:46
  Speaker 1: team in the NBA, the attempt just under twenty nine.
• 15:49
  Speaker 1: So the Bulls offensive system is not set up to
• 15:52
  Speaker 1: capitalize against the bucks biggest defensive weakness. So when you
• 15:56
  Speaker 1: couple that with the Star power gap, I think that
• 15:59
  Speaker 1: this is just a signal pacutely better basketball team that's
• 16:01
  Speaker 1: also a bad matchup for the Bulls. But I'm with
• 16:04
  Speaker 1: you I'm with you, Matt, there's you just you just
• 16:06
  Speaker 1: never know. With these Game three in Chicago, buzz saw crowd,
• 16:10
  Speaker 1: they haven't had a playoff game in forever. I could
• 16:12
  Speaker 1: totally see it going. I could totally see the Bulls
• 16:15
  Speaker 1: getting one. But I think this is gonna be a
• 16:18
  Speaker 1: dominant performance from Milwaukee. I don't want to be annoyed
• 16:21
  Speaker 1: that the Bucks client one in Chicago. I just feel
• 16:24
  Speaker 1: like I'm if I take the sleeve and I'm so annoyed,
• 16:27
  Speaker 1: I'm just gonna I always get mad at the Bucks
• 16:28
  Speaker 1: would be in like, just hit the open shots, guys,
• 16:30
  Speaker 1: just your professional basketball players, please make the open shots.
• 16:34
  Speaker 1: Eastern Conference finals or finals. I'm sorry, eater conference title
• 16:37
  Speaker 1: features for just to win the conference, Bucks are plus
• 16:40
  Speaker 1: two thirty nets plus three thirty heat plus three nineties
• 16:43
  Speaker 1: Celtics plus five hundred sixers plus six hundred raptors. Those
• 16:48
  Speaker 1: are your real threats. My best bet for a futures
• 16:51
  Speaker 1: play if you're looking at the Eastern Conference is actually
• 16:53
  Speaker 1: six ers plus six hundred. I've been down on them
• 16:55
  Speaker 1: all year. I don't love this team. I don't love
• 16:58
  Speaker 1: a lot of their defense. I have questions they're coaching
• 17:00
  Speaker 1: Jewell Embiad has real trouble with the double team. Like
• 17:03
  Speaker 1: like Tim talks about, I always talk about how that's
• 17:04
  Speaker 1: an issue, but look, they're on the good side of
• 17:06
  Speaker 1: the bracket. We don't know how the play is gonna go.
• 17:09
  Speaker 1: If the Nets amount wind up an eight, then I'm
• 17:11
  Speaker 1: gonna be like, oh no. But but the Nets also
• 17:15
  Speaker 1: don't have anybody to guard and bad and if they
• 17:16
  Speaker 1: get past the Raptors, the heat or a tough matchup,
• 17:19
  Speaker 1: but it's the one that you want. At six to one,
• 17:21
  Speaker 1: I think the value, the best value in the East
• 17:23
  Speaker 1: is on the sixers. Jason, what do you like in
• 17:26
  Speaker 1: the Eastern Conference? I love that number for Boston. I
• 17:29
  Speaker 1: was thinking about that. I was doing my plane preview
• 17:31
  Speaker 1: for the show, and I was looking at that that
• 17:34
  Speaker 1: to seven matchup with Brooklyn, and I really like Brooklyn.
• 17:38
  Speaker 1: But every every time I've watched Boston and and Dove
• 17:42
  Speaker 1: taking that dive into what they do, they have a
• 17:45
  Speaker 1: system that I think is built to succeed in playoff basketball,
• 17:49
  Speaker 1: especially now that Jayson Tatum is so good at accepting
• 17:51
  Speaker 1: the double team and weaponizing it to get open shots
• 17:54
  Speaker 1: for his teammates. Obviously, the Robert Williams thing concerns me.
• 17:58
  Speaker 1: And then you run into that issue where if when
• 18:00
  Speaker 1: teams double Jayson Tatum, you get a lot of like
• 18:03
  Speaker 1: Marcus Smart taking the three, you know, or or like
• 18:05
  Speaker 1: Derek White taking it three, who has been a really
• 18:07
  Speaker 1: bad shooter this year. So you can see that there
• 18:09
  Speaker 1: is some weaknesses forming there. But at that number, I
• 18:13
  Speaker 1: think Boston is every bid is capable of winning the
• 18:16
  Speaker 1: East as any other team there. So I love that
• 18:18
  Speaker 1: that number. Simon, would you like, yeah, honestly, it's not
• 18:22
  Speaker 1: even a homer big I would just say six is
• 18:24
  Speaker 1: just because no team has something to counter on Beat.
• 18:27
  Speaker 1: So if he can get hot, if Harding can oxly
• 18:30
  Speaker 1: wake up and stop playing like you guys are talking,
• 18:32
  Speaker 1: you just can't hit shots right now. If h and
• 18:35
  Speaker 1: Maxie and Beat all play at their capability the sixers,
• 18:39
  Speaker 1: that's like, that's a really really tough big three. And
• 18:41
  Speaker 1: then Tobias is the fourth man. So at plus six
• 18:44
  Speaker 1: D with the six ers, that's just really good value
• 18:46
  Speaker 1: on a team that I feel like we're getting that
• 18:47
  Speaker 1: number just because every year they've let people down. I'm
• 18:50
  Speaker 1: still furious that we got the Gnats were in the
• 18:52
  Speaker 1: play in and they're still plus three thirty. The books
• 18:54
  Speaker 1: just all year like, Nope, liabilities too high and they
• 18:57
  Speaker 1: got Kevin Durant, yourselves don't care. I don't not moving
• 19:00
  Speaker 1: the line. Uh, let's go to the Western Conference. The
• 19:03
  Speaker 1: Nuggets taken on the Warriors with likely m v P
• 19:06
  Speaker 1: winner odz On favorite NICOLEA. Yokis, who was surprisingly at
• 19:09
  Speaker 1: this point you would have to say, is the best
• 19:11
  Speaker 1: player right now in the series, which is crazy because
• 19:13
  Speaker 1: Steph Curry, who's gonna be one of the ten best
• 19:15
  Speaker 1: players probably of all time based off a resume, is
• 19:18
  Speaker 1: gonna be in the series. Uh. Likely Steph Curry returns,
• 19:21
  Speaker 1: not for sure yet, but I think Curry is indicated
• 19:23
  Speaker 1: he feels pretty confident that that Curry's gonna be back. Uh.
• 19:27
  Speaker 1: Nuggets are plus two oh five to win the series
• 19:30
  Speaker 1: minus two fifty. The win line spreads Warriors minus one
• 19:34
  Speaker 1: and a half at minus one oh five. Um, I'll
• 19:38
  Speaker 1: just go ahead and say this. I like Warriors minus
• 19:40
  Speaker 1: one and a half here. I cover the Nuggets locally
• 19:43
  Speaker 1: here in Denver. But the team I see the most
• 19:44
  Speaker 1: of they're exhausted, they're tired. Jamald Murray is likely not
• 19:47
  Speaker 1: coming back. NPJ is not coming back. There's no reason
• 19:51
  Speaker 1: to think NBJ is coming back at all. There's very
• 19:52
  Speaker 1: little reason I think Jamal Murray comes back. Second best
• 19:55
  Speaker 1: players Aaron Gordon, the Warriors gonna dare him to shoot.
• 19:58
  Speaker 1: Their best players, Will Barton, They're gonna dare him just shoot.
• 20:01
  Speaker 1: The Nuggets have have done pretty impressive work making it
• 20:04
  Speaker 1: this far. I like this matchup honestly for Denver. That's
• 20:07
  Speaker 1: what sucks is if they are fully healthy, I would
• 20:10
  Speaker 1: Hammer and Nuggets plus two oh five here if they
• 20:12
  Speaker 1: just had Jamal Murray back. Forget MPJ, they just had
• 20:14
  Speaker 1: Jamal Murray. But this team ran as steam. They're exhausted.
• 20:18
  Speaker 1: They had to play their starters heavy, heavy minutes early
• 20:21
  Speaker 1: on the season because they had the worst bench in
• 20:23
  Speaker 1: the NBA. Dragged him down. So for me, I'm getting
• 20:26
  Speaker 1: minus one oh five on Warriors will win this in
• 20:29
  Speaker 1: six or less. That's easy for me. I'm gonna be
• 20:32
  Speaker 1: on Warriors minus one and a half minus one oh five. Simon,
• 20:35
  Speaker 1: what do you think? Yeah, I honestly wanted to really
• 20:39
  Speaker 1: bet the Warriors to win it all, But like you
• 20:41
  Speaker 1: just said, the stuff Curry injury, it's just really thrown
• 20:44
  Speaker 1: me off because we don't know what he's gonna be
• 20:45
  Speaker 1: coming back, but I can't. I can't get over the
• 20:48
  Speaker 1: MBP thing. The Nuggets are the sixth seed and the
• 20:50
  Speaker 1: Western Conference, the weaker Western Conference, and this man is
• 20:53
  Speaker 1: gonna gam VP. It is crazy. Joker's gonna win it.
• 20:56
  Speaker 1: But I don't know. I honestly, I just want to
• 20:59
  Speaker 1: take the Nuggets because I like I like them better.
• 21:02
  Speaker 1: But you just talked about all the matchups. They're out
• 21:04
  Speaker 1: of gas, They've kind of they've kind of run as
• 21:06
  Speaker 1: far as they can. So I guess I would take
• 21:08
  Speaker 1: the Warriors just because Clay has been there, Draymond has
• 21:11
  Speaker 1: been there, and Steph obviously has been there. So yeah,
• 21:13
  Speaker 1: I'm with you. Mightus one, mightus one and a half.
• 21:15
  Speaker 1: I like this line, especially because it's like, do I
• 21:17
  Speaker 1: think the Nuggets can take a game? Yeah? Do I
• 21:19
  Speaker 1: think the Nuggets can take two games? Pretty sure? Yeah?
• 21:23
  Speaker 1: Do I think they can take three? I do not.
• 21:25
  Speaker 1: I do not think they can take three off the Warriors.
• 21:27
  Speaker 1: Jason de Eveleen here, Yeah, I'm with you. I would
• 21:30
  Speaker 1: take the Warriors in five. The thing is is personnel
• 21:34
  Speaker 1: limitations in particular are easier to work around in a
• 21:38
  Speaker 1: regular season than they are in the postseason. In a
• 21:41
  Speaker 1: postseason setting, when you have the time to scout and
• 21:45
  Speaker 1: you get extra look at film, it's just easier to
• 21:49
  Speaker 1: to counter and make adjustments when you have personnel advantages.
• 21:53
  Speaker 1: And the Golden State Warriors are absolutely, unquestionably more talented.
• 21:56
  Speaker 1: I understand the did the question marks surrounding the Warriors.
• 22:00
  Speaker 1: There are a lot like the Lakers this year in
• 22:02
  Speaker 1: the sense that like every time one of their stars
• 22:04
  Speaker 1: was healthy, the other one was hurt, and then one
• 22:05
  Speaker 1: one of them would come back, then the other guy
• 22:07
  Speaker 1: would get hurt, and then it just they never really
• 22:09
  Speaker 1: had that continuity. But there's two reasons why that doesn't
• 22:13
  Speaker 1: scare me. One, the Golden State Warriors are a well
• 22:15
  Speaker 1: run team, and so when those personnel issues happened for
• 22:18
  Speaker 1: them this year with injuries, they continued to run functional
• 22:22
  Speaker 1: basketball with a good amount of talent with young players
• 22:25
  Speaker 1: and a ton of athleticism there. They have like one
• 22:28
  Speaker 1: of the deepest arsenals of wings, athletic wings that you
• 22:31
  Speaker 1: see in the league, which you know, I love that
• 22:32
  Speaker 1: kind of thing. And then what the other thing too,
• 22:35
  Speaker 1: is it was a continuity. If there's one trio in
• 22:39
  Speaker 1: basketball that you would be least concerned about picking up
• 22:43
  Speaker 1: how they play on the fly. I think it'd be
• 22:45
  Speaker 1: Steph Klan Draymond with all of the reps that they
• 22:47
  Speaker 1: have over the years. So I think personnel limitations are
• 22:50
  Speaker 1: gonna end up coming back to haunt Denver the at
• 22:53
  Speaker 1: the end of the day, they're gonna end up probably
• 22:55
  Speaker 1: doubling Yokis for the most part. But you've got one
• 22:57
  Speaker 1: of the best back line communicators in the league and
• 22:59
  Speaker 1: dream On Green sending people in the right direction, and
• 23:02
  Speaker 1: a ton of athletic wings to rotate around. I think
• 23:05
  Speaker 1: Golden State's gonna to pull it off relatively easily. I
• 23:07
  Speaker 1: would get Denver one game though. For sure. Game one
• 23:09
  Speaker 1: I'm absolutely gonna be on the under Warriors defense was
• 23:13
  Speaker 1: gonna switch everything and make it tough on Denver. Yoka
• 23:15
  Speaker 1: she is gonna have like thirty five, but nobody else
• 23:18
  Speaker 1: that that's gonna be their scheme. Is there gonna be like,
• 23:20
  Speaker 1: we'll have a joker she scoring forty five, and there're
• 23:23
  Speaker 1: nobody else is gonna be able to get enough. And
• 23:26
  Speaker 1: then the Warrior's offense appressingly very middle of the pack,
• 23:29
  Speaker 1: very even versus a bad Denver defense. Their point of the
• 23:32
  Speaker 1: the pack. Defense is horrible. The Warriors just haven't been
• 23:35
  Speaker 1: good enough offensively. The numbers um money is coming out
• 23:40
  Speaker 1: on the over. I'm probably gonna go the other way
• 23:42
  Speaker 1: and take the under in game one. At least in
• 23:46
  Speaker 1: the NBA playing tournament, there are no sure things except one,
• 23:51
  Speaker 1: but at least twenty dollars in the same game parlays
• 23:53
  Speaker 1: fandel Sports Book and you'll give an instant bonus win
• 23:57
  Speaker 1: or lose. That's right. Not only do you get to
• 24:00
  Speaker 1: enjoy the NBA's best duking it out for the right
• 24:03
  Speaker 1: to advance to the playoffs, but Fandels giving all customers
• 24:06
  Speaker 1: a bonus for getting in on the action. Oh and
• 24:09
  Speaker 1: the more you bet, the bigger your bonus. For example, tonight,
• 24:14
  Speaker 1: I'm considering a NETS money line Kevin Durant first basket
• 24:18
  Speaker 1: scorer and over same game parlay. FanDuel is an official
• 24:23
  Speaker 1: betting partner of the m b A. Their app is safe,
• 24:26
  Speaker 1: easy to use, and you'll get your winnings fast. New
• 24:29
  Speaker 1: to FanDuel Sports Book sign up today with promo code
• 24:32
  Speaker 1: Favorites to make every moment more so. Don't just watch
• 24:36
  Speaker 1: the NBA play and tournament, be a part of it.
• 24:39
  Speaker 1: Bet at least twenty dollars in same game parlays and
• 24:41
  Speaker 1: get an instant bonus. Winner lose must be twenty one
• 24:45
  Speaker 1: or over in present In select states only, bonus issued
• 24:49
  Speaker 1: as non withdrawable free bets that expire in seven days
• 24:52
  Speaker 1: max bonus one restrictions applied. See terms at sports book
• 24:56
  Speaker 1: dot FanDuel dot com. Gambling problem called gambler or visit
• 25:00
  Speaker 1: FanDuel dot com slash r G in Colorado, Iowa, Michigan,
• 25:04
  Speaker 1: New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Virginia, next step or tech next
• 25:08
  Speaker 1: step to five three three four two eight seven eight
• 25:12
  Speaker 1: nine seven seven seven seven, or visit CCPG dot org
• 25:16
  Speaker 1: slash chat in Connecticut one eight hundred nine with it
• 25:19
  Speaker 1: in Indiana one eight seven seven seven seven zero stop
• 25:23
  Speaker 1: in Louisiana one eight seven seven eight Hope and Why
• 25:26
  Speaker 1: or visit Hope and Why four six seven three six
• 25:29
  Speaker 1: nine in New York called the Tennessee Red Line at
• 25:32
  Speaker 1: one eight eight nine nine seven eight nine or one
• 25:35
  Speaker 1: hundred five to two four seven zero zero in Wyoming,
• 25:39
  Speaker 1: or visit one eight hundred gambler dot net in West Virginia,
• 25:45
  Speaker 1: Mavericks jazz so this one was the most up in
• 25:47
  Speaker 1: the air because we got Luka Dodge's calf injury. So
• 25:50
  Speaker 1: for those that like aren't, don't pull the NBA as
• 25:52
  Speaker 1: much in terms of the injury status. Here's the deal.
• 25:54
  Speaker 1: They don't have to submit an injury update on Luca
• 25:56
  Speaker 1: Dodge until Friday, So Friday or five thirty Eastern is
• 26:01
  Speaker 1: the first time that they were going to have to
• 26:02
  Speaker 1: actually give like a status for his game. They released
• 26:06
  Speaker 1: a statement today Tuesday that said that there's no timetable
• 26:11
  Speaker 1: for his return. This is gamesmanship. He could be back,
• 26:14
  Speaker 1: he could not be back. What they want to is
• 26:15
  Speaker 1: they want to make the Jazz have to prepare for
• 26:17
  Speaker 1: both outcomes. They want to make them have to do
• 26:20
  Speaker 1: more work the idea of what is the jet, What
• 26:21
  Speaker 1: does the Mavericks look like with Luca, and where the
• 26:24
  Speaker 1: Mavericks looked like without him. Calf, hamstring, those types of
• 26:28
  Speaker 1: half and hamstring, those type of injuries are are It
• 26:30
  Speaker 1: takes rest and they're slow to heal. I think there's
• 26:34
  Speaker 1: a good possibility he doesn't play Game one. I think
• 26:37
  Speaker 1: there's been a little bit of an overreaction in the
• 26:39
  Speaker 1: market on the series price, which is Jazz minus one
• 26:41
  Speaker 1: six six Mavericks plus one forty. Mavericks have got home
• 26:45
  Speaker 1: court here. I think Lucas probably back at some point
• 26:48
  Speaker 1: in the series. The matchups are off. Utah played Dallas
• 26:54
  Speaker 1: really well. Lucas got a bad habit of not bad habit,
• 26:58
  Speaker 1: He's got a fun habit of tying the toughest player.
• 27:01
  Speaker 1: Like he calls for the switch versus Janice, he calls
• 27:04
  Speaker 1: for the switch versus Lebron. He calls for like whoever
• 27:06
  Speaker 1: is like this marquee do, That's who he goes at.
• 27:08
  Speaker 1: So he goes at Rudy Gobert, and Gobert shut him down.
• 27:11
  Speaker 1: Easiest way to beat him. Beat the Jazz. Make Gobert
• 27:14
  Speaker 1: switch out onto somebody that is perimeter oriented, stick him
• 27:17
  Speaker 1: in the corner, the attack that way. But the Maps
• 27:19
  Speaker 1: have small ball, they can spread five and more than anything,
• 27:22
  Speaker 1: the Jazz has just been imploding. I don't know if
• 27:25
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna bet this. You got Lucas injury casting a
• 27:27
  Speaker 1: lot of doubt Mavericks for plus one and a half
• 27:30
  Speaker 1: minus one ten on the wind line. That was a
• 27:33
  Speaker 1: little attractive, but I want to plus number on it,
• 27:35
  Speaker 1: and I'm not getting that right now. So yes, Luca's
• 27:39
  Speaker 1: injury status is a concern. I don't think he misses
• 27:42
  Speaker 1: the entire playoffs or the entire series, so I lean
• 27:46
  Speaker 1: a little bit towards Dallas. But this is what I'm
• 27:48
  Speaker 1: gonna stay away from because I think it is that close. Jason,
• 27:52
  Speaker 1: what do you think you know? I'm so bummed about
• 27:54
  Speaker 1: this injury. Dallas was my favorite picks to potentially win
• 27:59
  Speaker 1: the West. I I think you you got into this match,
• 28:02
  Speaker 1: and I'm glad you brought it up because I think
• 28:03
  Speaker 1: it's so important that the the best way to attack
• 28:06
  Speaker 1: the Jazz, if you understand that they're a weak perimeter
• 28:09
  Speaker 1: defense team, is get Rudy go Gobert in a position
• 28:12
  Speaker 1: where he can't help. So whether that's like you said,
• 28:15
  Speaker 1: getting him switched onto a perimeter player then giving up
• 28:18
  Speaker 1: the ball so that he's guarding said perimeter player away
• 28:21
  Speaker 1: from the action, or if it's multiple rotations that's the
• 28:24
  Speaker 1: other thing, like driving kick basketball to where Rudy helps
• 28:26
  Speaker 1: at the rim once but then has to track somebody
• 28:28
  Speaker 1: out to the perimeter. Now a second rotation you have
• 28:31
  Speaker 1: Jordan Clarkson on the back line, or things like that.
• 28:34
  Speaker 1: Luca is one of the on the short list of
• 28:36
  Speaker 1: players that is best equipped to put the Jazz in
• 28:40
  Speaker 1: those predicaments so that they can score at will against
• 28:44
  Speaker 1: that team. So having him out just throws everything in
• 28:46
  Speaker 1: a loop. The one thing that's interesting is over the
• 28:48
  Speaker 1: course of the last couple of years Dallas has actually
• 28:51
  Speaker 1: been pretty good when Lucas off the floor, which is
• 28:54
  Speaker 1: not a Luca take. It's just a credit to that
• 28:56
  Speaker 1: organization and the fact that they have a system that
• 28:58
  Speaker 1: works well fast needs me. The most about Dallas is
• 29:01
  Speaker 1: their ability to defend without defensive personnel. If you look
• 29:04
  Speaker 1: at their lineups all the time, they have these guys
• 29:06
  Speaker 1: that are not great defensive players, Luca Doanche, Spencer, Dinwittie,
• 29:10
  Speaker 1: you know, Jalen Brunston, you know Maxine Cleber's okay, but
• 29:13
  Speaker 1: it's like they're they kind of manufacture a lot of
• 29:16
  Speaker 1: stops because they are utterly committed to the work. They
• 29:20
  Speaker 1: do a ton of doubling and trapping and and and
• 29:23
  Speaker 1: and blitzing, pick and rolls and stuff like that, and
• 29:25
  Speaker 1: they just run like crazy on the back end to recover.
• 29:29
  Speaker 1: I think the Jazz won't have an issue scoring necessarily
• 29:33
  Speaker 1: because of their dribble drive attack. I just I would
• 29:36
  Speaker 1: like I would pick Dallas to win this series. In
• 29:38
  Speaker 1: five or six games. If Luca is healthy, him being
• 29:41
  Speaker 1: out your right half injuries are a total crapshoot. You
• 29:44
  Speaker 1: have no idea how his body is gonna respond. It's
• 29:47
  Speaker 1: just it just is a huge cloud hanging over this
• 29:50
  Speaker 1: series that makes it really difficult to predict. Yeah, Simon,
• 29:53
  Speaker 1: I have looked at betting is both ways on going
• 29:56
  Speaker 1: seven games, because you can get plus five fifty Jazz
• 29:59
  Speaker 1: for three plus for twenty MAVs for three. It gets
• 30:03
  Speaker 1: me a little yellow nervous about if if a series
• 30:06
  Speaker 1: tilts in one direction, it goes rapidly in that direction.
• 30:09
  Speaker 1: It can be four one four two, especially with the
• 30:11
  Speaker 1: Luca factor. If this based off of Luca's situation, everything
• 30:16
  Speaker 1: else is this? Is this bettable? Is this like something
• 30:19
  Speaker 1: we can really try and get a cap on. But
• 30:22
  Speaker 1: being a pros all oft picking your spots, and this
• 30:24
  Speaker 1: is a spot you just can't pick. I mean, these
• 30:27
  Speaker 1: European guys are built different. I'll never forget. I saw
• 30:29
  Speaker 1: Janice Haters a c L last year, and then I
• 30:32
  Speaker 1: saw him go on to win the NBA Championship, So
• 30:35
  Speaker 1: I'm done playing the guests and game. These guys are freaks.
• 30:38
  Speaker 1: No one knows I can. Maybe you're right. Maybe I'll
• 30:40
  Speaker 1: take him a game or two to get it right,
• 30:42
  Speaker 1: but who really knows. Like you said, it's it's better
• 30:44
  Speaker 1: just to wait and don't try to think you're smart.
• 30:46
  Speaker 1: Everyone else taking Utah because you think he is gonna
• 30:49
  Speaker 1: be out because we just don't know. Like like you said,
• 30:51
  Speaker 1: no one's gonna know until Friday. So that's one of
• 30:54
  Speaker 1: those I would just waited out, to be honest, that
• 30:57
  Speaker 1: is waiting out. I think it's the best call here,
• 30:59
  Speaker 1: and I think, well, I'm gonna do. I'm gonna assume
• 31:02
  Speaker 1: that Luca doesn't play Game one, and if he doesn't
• 31:04
  Speaker 1: win Game one and the Jazz win Game one and
• 31:06
  Speaker 1: they take home court, that MAVs number is gonna spike
• 31:09
  Speaker 1: in terms of a plus number, that's the spot. So
• 31:13
  Speaker 1: I think that's what I'm gonna wait for. Finally, the
• 31:15
  Speaker 1: Western Conference, You've got the Suns plus one twenty to
• 31:17
  Speaker 1: win the Western Conference, Warriors plus four hundred, Grizz plus
• 31:21
  Speaker 1: six hundred, Jazz plus nine fifty, Nuggets plus twelve hundred,
• 31:24
  Speaker 1: and the Mavericks at plus hundred. My best bet for
• 31:28
  Speaker 1: the Western Conference in terms of the future, I like
• 31:30
  Speaker 1: the Warriors plus four hundred. Simon is probably gonna take
• 31:35
  Speaker 1: Sons because it's keep it simple, stupid. Best team by
• 31:38
  Speaker 1: a wide margin. I don't have to match up. I
• 31:40
  Speaker 1: watched all all those games this season. The Suns made
• 31:43
  Speaker 1: themselves a little less diverse in what they can run.
• 31:46
  Speaker 1: Jason talked about this earlier, about their diverse in terms
• 31:49
  Speaker 1: of what you want playlus. You wanna be able to
• 31:50
  Speaker 1: do a lot of different things. The sons of that.
• 31:52
  Speaker 1: Dario Starich went, you know what, We're not gonna get
• 31:54
  Speaker 1: like a small ball option. We're just gonna add j
• 31:55
  Speaker 1: Avail McGee and bis mack and we're gonna be like
• 31:58
  Speaker 1: super good at what we do. And it works for
• 32:01
  Speaker 1: a regular season. You run into these switching teams and
• 32:04
  Speaker 1: you don't have a small ball option, that gets difficult.
• 32:07
  Speaker 1: They don't feed eight and enough to punish the switches
• 32:10
  Speaker 1: that they're going to generate with the Warriors with the
• 32:13
  Speaker 1: death ball Draymond at five line up. So if it's Warriors,
• 32:18
  Speaker 1: especially since the Warriors got out of that side of
• 32:19
  Speaker 1: the bracket, made me feel a lot better about it.
• 32:22
  Speaker 1: Grizzer inexperienced. They don't have a good half court offense.
• 32:25
  Speaker 1: The Warriors path is really easy. It's a Nuggets team
• 32:27
  Speaker 1: without Jamal Murray, a Grizzlies team with a bang up
• 32:30
  Speaker 1: Job Morant that doesn't have any playoff experience, and then
• 32:33
  Speaker 1: you got the Suns. We'll see if Chris Paul stays healthy.
• 32:36
  Speaker 1: At four to one, to me, the best values on
• 32:39
  Speaker 1: the Warriors, Simon, there's an value on a Western Conference future.
• 32:43
  Speaker 1: I like we head to other Warriors. I can tell
• 32:44
  Speaker 1: you the professionals they've loved the Sons all year and
• 32:47
  Speaker 1: their biggest reason is this team in the fourth quarter
• 32:50
  Speaker 1: just comes back. Every time they're down in the game,
• 32:52
  Speaker 1: doesn't matter the score, They're gonna crawl back. And that's
• 32:55
  Speaker 1: that Chris Paul thing. It's like everywhere this guy goes,
• 32:57
  Speaker 1: he turns teams around, they kind of take on his idea.
• 33:00
  Speaker 1: Any So I'm right there. Wait, if Chris Paul stays healthy,
• 33:03
  Speaker 1: I just see this Sun's team. Anytime they're down the game,
• 33:06
  Speaker 1: when things start getting really tense, that's when they seem
• 33:09
  Speaker 1: like they're at their best, Like when everyone else is
• 33:11
  Speaker 1: kind of like freaking out, who's gonna who's gonna do what? No,
• 33:13
  Speaker 1: who's gonna take the ball here? Who's gonna take over
• 33:14
  Speaker 1: this game. The Suns all players all know their roles.
• 33:17
  Speaker 1: So yeah, if if I'm gonna bet value, you know
• 33:19
  Speaker 1: I'm not gonna take a plus one's twenty. That's no fun.
• 33:21
  Speaker 1: So I would join on that Warriors. But just because
• 33:24
  Speaker 1: they're the veteran team, we trust them the most of
• 33:26
  Speaker 1: all these teams. So if healthy, yeah, I love that
• 33:29
  Speaker 1: Warriors mber plus four hundred, No Lakers the bet in
• 33:31
  Speaker 1: the Western Conference? Jason, who do you like to win
• 33:34
  Speaker 1: the West this year? To be clear up front, I
• 33:37
  Speaker 1: think the Suns are gonna win. I think they're the
• 33:38
  Speaker 1: most talented team in the league. I think they're better
• 33:40
  Speaker 1: than they were last year. I agree with Matt. I
• 33:43
  Speaker 1: think they're beatable, and they're beatable in their lack of versatility.
• 33:45
  Speaker 1: That agree with um. What makes well makes the betting
• 33:50
  Speaker 1: interesting is I like both of those numbers, the Warriors
• 33:53
  Speaker 1: number and the Grizzlies number. Because if you told me, like,
• 33:56
  Speaker 1: all right, Jason, you can either take the Sons or
• 33:59
  Speaker 1: you can take the Warriors and the Grizzlies, which of
• 34:02
  Speaker 1: those two groups would win, I'd say it's about a
• 34:05
  Speaker 1: coin flipft So at a plus four hundred and a
• 34:08
  Speaker 1: plus six hundred. There's a very good chance that the
• 34:10
  Speaker 1: Warriors of the Grizzlies will end up coming out of
• 34:12
  Speaker 1: the conference. I really like how athletic and versatile defensively
• 34:17
  Speaker 1: Memphis is. I also think John Murray it brings an
• 34:19
  Speaker 1: interesting kind of like Dwyane Wade element where it's very,
• 34:22
  Speaker 1: very difficult to officiate him when he comes flying through
• 34:25
  Speaker 1: the lane. So you could see him in a pivotal
• 34:27
  Speaker 1: playoff series shooting fifteen free throws, if in a pivotal game,
• 34:31
  Speaker 1: because just the rest don't know how to officiate a
• 34:33
  Speaker 1: guy like that. And then Golden State, obviously with all
• 34:35
  Speaker 1: of their their you know, all of their experience there,
• 34:39
  Speaker 1: every bit is capable of of of coming out of
• 34:41
  Speaker 1: the conference. And then you know, this is the most
• 34:43
  Speaker 1: important detail. Just like last year, we don't know what
• 34:47
  Speaker 1: the big wrinkles are gonna be, but there are gonna
• 34:49
  Speaker 1: be three or four huge wrinkles in this playoff series
• 34:53
  Speaker 1: in the form of injuries or a big team getting
• 34:56
  Speaker 1: knocked out by a bad matchup. You just don't know.
• 34:59
  Speaker 1: And so there's obviously a good amount that's up in
• 35:01
  Speaker 1: the air. And if that happens to the Sun's one
• 35:04
  Speaker 1: of those teams the Grizzlies or the or the Warriors
• 35:07
  Speaker 1: are going to come out. I think those are the
• 35:08
  Speaker 1: only two teams in the West that are capable unless
• 35:11
  Speaker 1: Luca gets healthy. So I like those numbers for those
• 35:13
  Speaker 1: two teams. Yeah. Well, I will just say this, If
• 35:17
  Speaker 1: the Clippers win the play in in either spot and
• 35:20
  Speaker 1: we get to Friday and Kawhile Leonard pops up on
• 35:23
  Speaker 1: that injury report is questionable, I'm gonna be panic running
• 35:26
  Speaker 1: as if Chad Melman just found out that oat milk
• 35:28
  Speaker 1: is out of the store. Like I'm gonna be absolutely
• 35:32
  Speaker 1: panicked to get in Clippers bets. If Kawhi Leonard pops
• 35:36
  Speaker 1: up on the injury report, that team is scary. They're
• 35:38
  Speaker 1: just missing. As my colleague writing Palmer calls him Robo
• 35:42
  Speaker 1: Jordan's and in real quickly Matt, Dude, why in the
• 35:47
  Speaker 1: world would Paul George literally needing Tommy John surgery rather
• 35:53
  Speaker 1: than getting the surgery knowing that Kauai is coming back
• 35:56
  Speaker 1: next year, so that he gave a full offseason potentially
• 35:58
  Speaker 1: to work on his game. Why would he come back
• 36:01
  Speaker 1: to play in this play and run unless Kauai was
• 36:03
  Speaker 1: coming back. I just don't get it. I keep thinking about,
• 36:06
  Speaker 1: like if my elbow was missing a ligament, if I
• 36:09
  Speaker 1: didn't think for sure that I had a chance to win.
• 36:12
  Speaker 1: Right now, I'm getting the surgery because I have a
• 36:14
  Speaker 1: lot of basketball left to play, you know what I mean,
• 36:16
  Speaker 1: So that that whole thing is fishy to me, and
• 36:19
  Speaker 1: I'm to you like, I wouldn't be the least bit
• 36:21
  Speaker 1: surprised if Kauai came back plus Clippers to win the
• 36:24
  Speaker 1: Lesson Conference. That's insane. That's going to do it for
• 36:28
  Speaker 1: the Favorites. Thanks for joining us from the Volume podcast Network.
• 36:32
  Speaker 1: Make sure to download the Action Network app. You can
• 36:35
  Speaker 1: follow Jason and Simon on Twitter as well as me.
• 36:39
  Speaker 1: Thanks for joining us. Everybody, have yourselves a great week.
• 36:41
  Speaker 1: We'll see you next time. I like you, yea