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Felix Prehn - AI Stock Rug Pull: Is The Market Crashing? + Stock Market News 01 August 2025 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:01
  Speaker 1: Today is one of the most important days in the history of the stock market, for the simple reasons that we had two giants reporting, we got tariffs out across everybody and the market is starting to worry seriously about the AI bubble boom or bust.
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: I'm going to answer all of that for you, so you have the facts and the hard data and the charts at your fingertips so you can make better decisions and build more financial security for yourself and your family, which is always my goal here.
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: So I'm going to share my screen with you and hit you with it.
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: Let's get straight into it.
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: President Trump has imposed a massive, massive amount of new tariffs.
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: The Canadians are now paying 35%, so we've gone from 25% to 35%.
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: The Swissies are paying 39% or you are paying that for their chocolates and the South Africans and the Taiwanese and the Vietnamese, and everybody's basically getting hit with tariffs.
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: There seems to be a sort of a baseline of 15% here, which, if you go back to tariff day in February, whenever it was and the market tanked, we were expecting much higher tariffs.
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: So, yeah, the Canada thing is definitely an issue, and China and everything else, but it's actually not as bad as we thought.
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: So there might be a little bit of a wobble and a hiccup here around this, but actually this is so much lower than I thought.
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: Honestly, I just don't think this is that bad.
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: Now, how do you then pick stocks?
• 1:28
  Speaker 1: That's the big question, isn't it?
• 1:30
  Speaker 1: There is a rally here.
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: It is probably going to be the biggest stock market rally the world has ever seen, and a lot of people are sitting on the sidelines and they're hoping and praying and they're buying one Figma share right?
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: Yeah, you made $80 yesterday.
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: Go nuts this weekend.
• 1:45
  Speaker 1: No, that's not the sort of thing we're going to do, although we're going to look at that briefly.
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: We just buy stocks where Wall Street money is buying it to.
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: And how do you spot that?
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: Well, the market just goes in these very predictable patterns, and once you understand how they work, then you understand where your buy points and where your sell points are.
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: And it allows you to do two things it allows you to potentially make a lot more money from the beautiful rally that we're in.
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: It's the biggest, most beautiful rally ever, donald told me himself, and honestly, I think it is.
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: I think it will be.
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: We'll look at why in a second, but it will crash, but not yet.
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: I'll tell you when and how to spot that too, but we still want to be protected against those because we're going to have pullbacks.
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: Pullback isn't a crash.
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: I will teach you all of that if you wish to join me on Saturday at 10 am, new York time, at phoenixfriendsorg slash training and come and join me.
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: This might be the last one I do for quite some time.
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: So first of all, all amazon, the big orange giant, has reported earnings and, on the face of this, 30 more revenue margins are up, net profit margins are up.
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: All looks pretty decent.
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: But then there is a little bit of a fly in the ointment.
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: This cookie looking chart here shows you amazon web services, which is their cloud business, the growth of their revenue, and the growth is anything but exciting.
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: It's kind of flat, right.
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: The market doesn't really like flat.
• 3:19
  Speaker 1: The market likes bigger, better, beautiful.
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: So that's a little bit that and that's why the stock pulled back.
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: And then the profit margins also dropped a little.
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: I mean, they're at pretty historically high levels, but still they dropped a little.
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: So we don't love that either.
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: And revenue growth overall is also down, just slowing down ever so slightly, and not in these sort of crazy areas where we would like it to be and that's basically hitting Amazon here and as I'm recording this pre-market Amazon dropped fairly significantly about 6%.
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: But it is still and this is important this is a very important line of lines that yellow line.
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: There is the 50-day moving average line.
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: You can toggle that on down here on the indicators in Trade Vision.
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: You can't see where I'm drawing Down there behind me.
• 4:14
  Speaker 1: We're still above that.
• 4:17
  Speaker 1: So, yeah, we've definitely come out of the upward trend here pretty harshly, but we're still above that line.
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: It would be an important thing to close above that line today.
• 4:27
  Speaker 1: And you can also see that we're in the support zone here all those lows there.
• 4:34
  Speaker 1: So these charts actually tell you a lot and if we drop really harshly, there will be support at 210 from the market makers likely.
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: So that's something to understand as well.
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: That's all in trade vision.
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: If you want to look at that data yourself firsthand, there's a free trial to that as well.
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: But here's a chap I don't know who Gene Munster is some sort of fund manager, but he put this on X and it seemed like a smart comment, so I screenshotted it and give credit where credit is due.
• 5:00
  Speaker 1: He said I'm surprised that Amazon stock did not move higher.
• 5:13
  Speaker 1: On the comment that AWS was capacity constrained, they said the backlog grew at 25%, suggesting that's the true growth rate.
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: And we saw the same thing with Microsoft.
• 5:18
  Speaker 1: I want to say three or so earnings back, where they basically said our growth is capacity constrained, and I think it might have been in January I'm not entirely sure Maybe even in October, and the stock tanked pretty harshly on that news, like 6%, declined much, much lower, to set up a really beautiful opportunity and rally for us.
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: Because if the only reason you're not bringing in the revenue right now is because you haven't got enough nvidia gpus, well it's.
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: It does two things one, it's bloody wonderful for nvidia and secondly, the revenue will come, but just a little later, in which case, when it does come, the market's gonna, you know, to dance kumbaya and all that sort of stuff.
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: So I think there is something to this.
• 6:12
  Speaker 1: So I'm liking Amazon here.
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: It hasn't dropped catastrophically, even though it never feels good when a big stock drops like that.
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: Still within the support, still above the 50-day moving average line, above its institutional support.
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: So to me this is not terrible.
• 6:22
  Speaker 1: To me this is actually potential opportunity and you've got to decide what you do with that one, but that's helpful.
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: Put an A for Amazon in the chat there and then for my Palantir.
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: Palantir just got the largest Department of Defense software contract in history not in Palantir's history in all history.
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: The US Army awarded Palantir a $10 billion 10-year enterprise agreement that creates a framework for the army's future software and data needs.
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: It's worth up to and that's important up to $10 billion.
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: They're not committed, but it's up to Now.
• 7:05
  Speaker 1: The market doesn't love up to, because it could be $1, it could be $10 billion, who knows?
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: But it consolidates 75 different contracts into one and, as Carp said on the last earnings call, they're going for the entire pie.
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: Was it the last call?
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: I thought it was the last call.
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: So what does the Palantir stock chart do on that?
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: Is it going absolutely to the moon?
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: The most exciting announcement in the world and no, nothing's happening.
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: And why not?
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: It's the uncertainty.
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: We don't know to what extent these are contracts that Palantir already had, to which extent they're new contracts, to what extent they're other people's contracts, to what extent they're actually going to pay out on the 10 billion right, we don't know.
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: But what it says to me is that Palantir is really at the core and center of US government and they're getting the framework right.
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: It's like the operating system and then it's going to get built upon and built upon and built upon.
• 8:06
  Speaker 1: So I wouldn't be surprised if it becomes more than $10 billion.
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: That would be my personal view on this.
• 8:10
  Speaker 1: But think about this this is a billion dollars a year in revenue.
• 8:13
  Speaker 1: Potentially that's pretty significant.
• 8:15
  Speaker 1: So I wouldn't estimate the importance of that Stock not doing anything.
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: But then the stock has done rather a lot than the stock has done rather a lot.
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: Just since our $99 entry point.
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: They were up 60% on that.
• 8:28
  Speaker 1: Last entry point, I think, was here at 144.
• 8:32
  Speaker 1: You know, we're also significantly up on that and obviously you can zoom out some more and find some earlier entry points.
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: But yeah, this continues to be a winner, I would argue.
• 8:41
  Speaker 1: Now, apple I would not have expected that Apple came to the rescue of the market today.
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: Apple is a company sort of free of innovation.
• 8:52
  Speaker 1: They'll put out a different phone every other year with a slightly better camera and a higher price tag.
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: They make 75% of their revenue.
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: Their manufacturing is in China, which you'd think would be fairly risky at present, but they put in some good numbers.
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: Even their China sales were pretty good and revenue grew 10%.
• 9:14
  Speaker 1: Now one thing to watch out for and this is me sort of saying they're actually doing something right, which is okay.
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: Products are growing at 8%, but services are growing at 13%.
• 9:26
  Speaker 1: Why does that matter?
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: Services, in my humble opinion, will have about a two times higher margin than products, because software is just more profitable than building stuff and shipping it and packaging and repairing all that kind of stuff.
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: So, even though it's only 27, only 27 billion in the quarter what a tiny business 27 billion that will probably have twice the effect, since the equivalent of just under 60 billion products.
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: You see what I'm saying there.
• 9:57
  Speaker 1: So services growth is very, very important for the overall amount of profits that we're getting here.
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: So they are doing something right, which is shifting towards services.
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: They're also saying they're going to spend more on AI and that they're open and looking for acquisition targets.
• 10:12
  Speaker 1: Do I like that?
• 10:13
  Speaker 1: No, management that runs out of ideas and is incompetent tends to acquire lots and lots of competitors and smaller companies that had ideas, and it's just a sign that Apple internally isn't able to innovate anymore, because the bigger you get, the harder it gets to innovate.
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: So yeah, I think it's still fundamentally a problem there, but at the moment the market's loving it and we should obviously take that.
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: It's popped up quite nicely here as I am recording this.
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: It popped up about 2.5% pre-market and this is a pretty sizable business, so 2.5% matters Overall as well.
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: Just take this earnings season that we're in the midst down, 84% of S&P companies beat expectations 84%.
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: That's pretty good, and in technology it's 96% and overall it's a very, very, very bullish market.
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: So we have the apparent proof that AI makes money and that is what's going to drive this rally much, much longer.
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: So make sure you participate in the best possible way.
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: And before we look at a couple more stocks here, I think it's worth exploring just whether we're going to get this bubble or boom.
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: So expect pullbacks, yes, but I don't believe this is the market top, not yet.
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: The AI revolution is actually driving this bull market and that could dwarf the dot-com bubble.
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: So when I started investing, I lost half my money in the dot-com bubble back then and big, big, expensive learning experience.
• 11:50
  Speaker 1: Seriously, it was tuition, not well spent.
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: It wasn't well spent.
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: I paid a lot more tuition afterwards.
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: But AI isn't hype.
• 12:01
  Speaker 1: It is actually delivering draw-dropping profits for the tech giants the Metas and the Microsofts.
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: So the numbers there that they don't lie.
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: And in 1999, we had companies that had literally zero revenue and then they added the words or the letters dot com to their name.
• 12:24
  Speaker 1: My people are drilling here.
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: They're putting in a cat net on a balcony so the kittens can get some air.
• 12:31
  Speaker 1: Um, and you added the dot com back then and then your stock price would go up 50 the same day.
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: That's simply what happened.
• 12:39
  Speaker 1: We're nowhere near that kind of mania.
• 12:42
  Speaker 1: Ai is different.
• 12:44
  Speaker 1: Today's tech leaders are cash machines.
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: They are real AI applications and they are fueling real, unprecedented growth, and this is important.
• 12:56
  Speaker 1: I'm going to take a note of the following names I'm going to give you.
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: The true stars of the AI rally are not listed yet, and they will be.
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: It is your open AI.
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: It is your Andrew Earl.
• 13:10
  Speaker 1: It is your Stripe.
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: It is your Tether.
• 13:15
  Speaker 1: I actually met the Tether co-founder in the south of france.
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: Very nice chap.
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: How did I recognize him?
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: He was the palest man in the room.
• 13:23
  Speaker 1: You can always tell these are.
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: There are crypto people.
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: Um, data bricks there are.
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: There will be others when those companies list, when we get all of those guys into an ipo that will ignite the next phase of this rally.
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: We're going to go much, much higher, in my humble opinion.
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: I don't think we're going to top out before these giants go public.
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: It just seems unlikely.
• 13:48
  Speaker 1: So what's my timeline?
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: Well, this bull market got kicked off.
• 13:54
  Speaker 1: The start here was, if you remember, october 2022.
• 13:59
  Speaker 1: I'm sorry it's a little noisy here.
• 14:05
  Speaker 1: Dotcom party.
• 14:06
  Speaker 1: So this is AI, right, the start of the dotcom party was January 95, believe it or not, this was dot-com, and it continued until march 2000.
• 14:27
  Speaker 1: That's about five years, right, january 95, I think.
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: I think I got my first computer around 94 95.
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: It's very exciting going online with aol.
• 14:38
  Speaker 1: But if AI follows suit here, the top could come in.
• 14:43
  Speaker 1: And again, you might want to write this down the top could come in around about late 2027.
• 14:54
  Speaker 1: The dot-com's final sprint was this the Nasdaq doubled in its last nine months.
• 14:59
  Speaker 1: So even if we are near the endgame and I don't think we are the Nasdaq could climb another 50% from the April lows and I don't want to miss out on this.
• 15:10
  Speaker 1: And yeah, there will be the bears and they're going to scream bubble and rigged as the stocks climb and they'll sit on the sideline and watch everybody get richer as they get poorer.
• 15:18
  Speaker 1: Ignore the noise.
• 15:19
  Speaker 1: Euphoria isn't here yet.
• 15:21
  Speaker 1: It is coming for sure.
• 15:23
  Speaker 1: There will be pullbacks.
• 15:24
  Speaker 1: There will be big.
• 15:25
  Speaker 1: There'll be opportunities in.
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: Those.
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: Corrections will shake out the weak, but it won't actually derail the trend.
• 15:31
  Speaker 1: So the market will get dumber and madder before it tops.
• 15:34
  Speaker 1: Dumber and madder before it tops.
• 15:36
  Speaker 1: The late stage dot com stupidity was really at a pretty high level.
• 15:42
  Speaker 1: So what's the strategy here?
• 15:44
  Speaker 1: Well, retail keeps buying the dip.
• 15:46
  Speaker 1: That's something that's working at present.
• 15:48
  Speaker 1: But you also want to make sure you protect your money right.
• 15:51
  Speaker 1: So I think this AI cycle has legs.
• 15:54
  Speaker 1: The top is, of course, going to come, but I don't think it's here.
• 15:58
  Speaker 1: I think we might have another two years or more to go.
• 16:02
  Speaker 1: So learn in the beautiful market, because when the market is no longer beautiful, all the geniuses are tools right.
• 16:11
  Speaker 1: So you want to make sure you follow the right people you follow yourself mostly and that you learn, learn, you get a little bit better every week.
• 16:19
  Speaker 1: Stay focused, stay learning, stay invested.
• 16:23
  Speaker 1: Protect your money, protect your gains.
• 16:26
  Speaker 1: That's ultimately what it's all about.
• 16:28
  Speaker 1: And if you want to learn more about that, come and join me tomorrow at felixrentsorg slash training and I'll teach you that, especially how to spot those big beautiful winners and secondly, how to make sure we keep the money when we have the big beautiful winners.
• 16:41
  Speaker 1: I wish you a beautiful rest of your day and a beautiful weekend.
• 16:44
  Speaker 1: As you probably noticed, this in life, I'm out and about enjoying myself, which I'm doing more and more of these days, which is a nice thing to do.
• 16:54
  Speaker 1: I mean, I enjoy myself a lot anyway, but for me it's always evenings to the live streams, which I absolutely love, but sometimes you also need a little bit of a break.
• 17:04
  Speaker 1: I hope you guys don't mind.
• 17:05
  Speaker 1: I hope you're still getting the info and the value that you expect here.
• 17:07
  Speaker 1: Hit me up in the comments down below.
• 17:09
  Speaker 1: I do read them all and I wish you a beautiful and successful Friday.
• 17:14
  Speaker 1: Take care.