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Felix Prehn - 🚨FED's Surprise Move LIVE + Stock Market News 08 August 2024 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:02
  Speaker 1: Felix here and on a day where Japan wobbles, the Fed is doing its bit in secret and I think you need to understand why and how that works, because it's not this simple, straightforward sort of rate cut type thing.
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: We also just had jobs numbers out, massive Palantir deal and much, much more.
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: My ambition here is to make you into the best informed investor out there and therefore hopefully help you make better decisions.
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: Today, as I sip on some of my favorite latest electrolytes Salty watermelon flavor who knew that was a thing?
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: It's much better than it sounds, so let me share my screen with you and we'll go straight into it.
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: This is Japan today.
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: The Japanese tropics, which is their sort of S&P, tanked yet again to there.
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: It was much, much worse earlier in the day.
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: What's going on with my weirdly thin pen here?
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: We did actually drop all the way down there, but we recovered a bit.
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: But still another red day in Japan.
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: Why?
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: Because I'll try to move myself into the actual screen bit here.
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: Well, the big banks are arguing that JP Morgans and Morgan Stanley and so on.
• 1:19
  Speaker 1: How much of that Japan carry trade is unwound?
• 1:22
  Speaker 1: How much pain is left there?
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: How much gas is left in that tank that we can set on fire essentially, and they kind of think maybe somewhere between 25% and 50% is left, which is still a fair bit of money, and it binds the hand of the Fed, which is why they're up to some shenanigans.
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: I'm about to show you and explain to you, but before we do that, let's just look at some support lines here for the S&P.
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: So we had let me zoom in on this for you.
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: This is the S&P 500, right, we had some support at 5,200.
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: Now we were closing at 5,198 yesterday.
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: Definitely not good.
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: I think we're slightly above 5200 as I'm talking here and I'll show you the live market, obviously in a second pre-market, but the real support is at 5000.
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: And I'm not hoping that we go to that level.
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: But what I started to notice is that and this is all from tradevisionio it's a link down below if you want to get yourself a free month trial, and this is 5,000 here what I'm starting to see are positions opening up both on the bullish and bearish side.
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: And what does that mean?
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: It means part of the market is expecting us to actually move below 5,000 now, which is pretty serious, almost as serious as the complete lack of likes on this live stream so far, which might make a chap in a blazer jump out of a window.
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: So if you'd smash that button, I'd appreciate that.
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: Johan there, hello to the UK.
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: You're apparently not allowed to tweet about the riots you've got going on there, or by the far right apparently can't make that stuff up, can you?
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: Um, we're also still making money, though.
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: We've done only one trade this week, on monday, and I bought some shares on tuesday, uh, but so we're still up almost 25 000 I think so far, and that $30,000 portfolio, and if you want to learn how we do that so it's an 80% return so far this year on our teaching portfolio then I'm running, for the first time ever, a two-day challenge next week.
• 3:35
  Speaker 1: It's completely free of charge.
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: You can grab yourself a seat a few hundred of you already have and I will share with you our strategy.
• 3:43
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• 3:44
  Speaker 1: I'll give you some insightful homework and quizzes and all sorts of things to make this into two days.
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: About two hours each day.
• 3:51
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• 3:53
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• 3:56
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• 4:00
  Speaker 1: Link is down below.
• 4:03
  Speaker 1: Okay, so we'll get back to the topic at hand here and I'll try to make this as big as possible.
• 4:07
  Speaker 1: The top is qqq.
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: The bottom is global m2 global what sounds like a drink or something, doesn't it?
• 4:19
  Speaker 1: Or some sort of sports car money.
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: How much money is in circulation globally is what m2 is, so all the central banks in the world and, of course, the us is the most some sort of sports car Money.
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: How much money is in circulation globally is what M2 is.
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: So all the central banks in the world and, of course, the US is the most important and the largest in there.
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: And what do you see?
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: Well, right now, let me zoom in a little bit for you.
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: You see it's going up.
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: You see that they've added money.
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: How do they add money?
• 4:41
  Speaker 1: Lots of ways they can increase the amount of money they make available to banks.
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: They can buy government bonds, they can just simply print money that way All sorts of ways that they can increase liquidity.
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: And why do we care?
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: Because just look at the dips.
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: You remember this dip here in 2020?
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: The market dipped.
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: Well, draw a straight line down, well out and a little hard to see, but money supply dipped just four.
• 5:13
  Speaker 1: Can you see that there?
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: So when they shred some money, it tanks the market.
• 5:18
  Speaker 1: When they print money, guess what?
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: We go up and remember the sell-off we had here.
• 5:24
  Speaker 1: That whole sell-off it was at end of 2022, into 2023.
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: End of 2022, into 2023, guess what?
• 5:31
  Speaker 1: Amount of money in circulation peaked and then it dipped and then they realized, oh, we better start printing some money.
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: And guess what?
• 5:40
  Speaker 1: Market goes up.
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: Very, very, very simple.
• 5:44
  Speaker 1: You think you're a brilliant stock picker, you think you're the investor of the century and we all think, gosh, are we smart?
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: It's actually largely about how much money is around.
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: It's very simple.
• 5:54
  Speaker 1: And the money will seek a return and they will buy assets, it will buy stocks and the market will go up.
• 5:58
  Speaker 1: So what makes me optimistic is that, yes, the market is down, but the amount of money out there is going up fairly rapidly as central banks try to contain the crisis that we've got out there.
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: So they added I don't know what is that Billion trillion Hard to sell, isn't it?
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: It's a lot of zeros, for sure that they added there.
• 6:22
  Speaker 1: That's a lot of zeros.
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: So they added some money.
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: And why are they doing that?
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: Why isn't the Fed just cutting interest rates.
• 6:30
  Speaker 1: The Fed can't cut interest rates and the Fed won't cut interest rates and I think if they do it, in September it'll be a quarter point which will disappoint the market and most of you and might lead to the market dropping.
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: So I want you to understand this.
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: I'll explain it to you and then I'll ask you whether you've actually understood it.
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: By smashing the like button, for example, higher rates what do they do?
• 6:58
  Speaker 1: What's one of the side effects of that?
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: It leads to a higher US dollar, and what does that do?
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: Well, the whole Japan carry trade depends on a stronger yen.
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: So the more US interest rates go up, the more the dollar goes up, the more in trouble we are in terms of that yen carry trade, the more it gets unwound and therefore what it means.
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: So the real problem here is basically Japan.
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: I know I'm doing that in yellow, but you get the idea.
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: You know, if that was red land of the rising sun and all that, can we do that in red?
• 7:44
  Speaker 1: We could do that in red, couldn't we?
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: There we go, see, there we go.
• 7:47
  Speaker 1: Probably incredibly offensive to somebody.
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: He's drawing a flag and he's doing it in the wrong colors.
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: Burn him at the stake, exactly.
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: So what does that mean?
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: It means if the Fed were to cut right now, that actually make the situation worse and the market would crash more.
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: So the Fed isn't going to cut rates, they're just going to do the secretive little money printing experiment here somehow through bank deposits and that kind of thing, you know bank reserves.
• 8:15
  Speaker 1: That's what they're going to do.
• 8:17
  Speaker 1: So come September if this is still a thing, this Japan carry trade, which it might well be I would expect us to be going to get a quarter percent hike cut, rather, and everyone's going to be like why are they so bloody cautious?
• 8:30
  Speaker 1: We were expecting half a percent or more and you might see a little bit of a dip.
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: So be prepared for that and you can make money out of that if you're prepared.
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: Right, do you understand that?
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: If you understand that, would you put write one in the chat.
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: If you don't understand it, write three.
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: Okay, one for understand it, three for don't understand it.
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: Electrolytes are good.
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: Okay, I'm getting some ones here.
• 9:04
  Speaker 1: One one at least.
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: Um, yeah, my, um, I think some of you are still getting these bloody ads.
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: I'm sorry about that.
• 9:11
  Speaker 1: Nothing really I can do.
• 9:12
  Speaker 1: Um, okay, we're getting some ones there.
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: I hope you mean that you can be.
• 9:16
  Speaker 1: You can be honest with me.
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: I'm seeing a lot of ones.
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: Okay, um, remand us not quite sure about that one, but most of you saying one.
• 9:23
  Speaker 1: Okay, so we might have achieved one thing here this morning.
• 9:25
  Speaker 1: Appreciate that.
• 9:26
  Speaker 1: Thanks for letting me know.
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: Okay, so what does it all mean then?
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: What does it all mean and we're going to get to the jobs data in a second, because that's super important and to volunteer on some big individual stock moves here, and our intention always is to make you smart, very, very smart, as smart as the likes, so smart, as smart as the likes.
• 9:46
  Speaker 1: Uh, so what are we seeing?
• 9:47
  Speaker 1: Okay, this is the nasdaq.
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: And again, screenshot from trade vision, which is our trading tool, and you know we're below that long-term uptrend.
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: Right, this is our long-term uptrend.
• 9:55
  Speaker 1: We're below it.
• 9:55
  Speaker 1: Support is presently at 420, and that comes from the little red bar, except I zoomed in too much so you can't see it, but that's support at 420.
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: And that comes from the little red bar, except I zoomed in too much so you can't see it, but that's support.
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: So 420 is our support.
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: Right now.
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: We are a little bit above that, which is good, and I think we're trending up slightly here because of the jobs data.
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: So bear that in mind below 420, put on the parachute and this here is seen as some good news.
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: So the initial jobless claims came in a little bit softer.
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: So we were expecting and that's basically people saying I'm unemployed for the first time ever, yay, give me some money.
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: And maybe they don't say, yay, obviously it's not fun for people to be unemployed.
• 10:41
  Speaker 1: I get that right.
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: We're expecting about 240,000 people to go I'm unemployed, please give me some money.
• 10:46
  Speaker 1: We've got 233,000.
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: And the market is saying that is good news, because the whole fear of the last 10 days or so has been about it's going to be a recession, it's the end of the world.
• 11:00
  Speaker 1: Oh, no, panic, the jobs market's collapsing and all of that.
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: Now, in reality, jobs data is completely made up in tile fabrication.
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: It's basically poetry.
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: Somebody just wrote it on the back of a napkin or toilet paper.
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: But in continuous, jobless claims have actually crept up, which is not quite so good.
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: And if you look at that on a chart, you have in green the initial jobless claims, so jobless.
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: I could spell jobless claims here for the can't see the jobless claims there.
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: You go in green, but the continuing jobless claims, which is basically unemployment, right, unemployment.
• 11:52
  Speaker 1: It's in red and it's creeping up and it's the highest it's been, well, certainly since 2021, right.
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: So it's a pretty.
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: We're making a new high there.
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: So that is implying that the economy is slowing and the real data is way worse.
• 12:01
  Speaker 1: In my opinion, it's just pretty making a new high there.
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: So that is implying that the economy is slowing and the real data is way worse.
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: In my opinion, it's just the government doesn't want you to know because they're trying to get elected I was going to say re-elected, but not quite sure if going from vp to p is um, is re-election or just election.
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: So what does that mean?
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: Well, it gives us a little bit of a break because the market's going all right.
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: It isn't that bad because this is, this is the pre-market life, moderate green.
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: Nvidia was red pre that data.
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: Tesla was red before that drops data.
• 12:42
  Speaker 1: They've now both turned green.
• 12:44
  Speaker 1: So we're thinking, okay, maybe we won't get a recession after all, maybe this will be good news.
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: But note that all of these moves are pretty small, right, they're in sort of 1% range, no massive rebound moves.
• 12:56
  Speaker 1: So the market is still a little bit worried, a little teeny, tiny, teeny bit worried about what might happen in Japanapan.
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: Okay, so let me, before we get to palantir, and I'll take all your questions.
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: I'll give you a couple of big moves overnight in terms of news.
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: Um lily lly, which is the uh nobunor disc sort of american competitor for fat drugs, they?
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: Um lifted their sales outlook for their blockbuster fat loss drug, zepbound.
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: It outsold expectations and that's therefore up.
• 13:29
  Speaker 1: That should also be good for NVO.
• 13:31
  Speaker 1: You would have thought.
• 13:32
  Speaker 1: Monster Beverage falls 8%.
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: Under Armour raised their guidance 7%.
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: That's kind of interesting because that sort of feeds also into Nike and into Lulu.
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: So if you watch that space, that's kind of an interesting one that they're actually doing quite well.
• 13:48
  Speaker 1: But, yeah, a fair few big moves.
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: And then of course, we have oh yeah, I wanted to talk about Palantir, but we also have fear and greed.
• 13:55
  Speaker 1: And look where we are we're in extreme fear.
• 13:57
  Speaker 1: Generally a fairly good point to buy stocks, but we haven't dropped that much right.
• 14:03
  Speaker 1: Really a fairly good point to buy stocks, but we haven't dropped that much, right.
• 14:07
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• 14:13
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• 14:26
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• 14:27
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