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NFL Week 10 Best Bets · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

0:08
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast from the Volume Podcast Network.
0:13
Speaker 1: I I'm your host, Chad Millman, Chief Content Officer of
0:16
Speaker 1: the Action Network. Reminder, we are your place for news,
0:22
Speaker 1: data analysis, research information when it comes to betting on
0:26
Speaker 1: the NFL and everything else. Download our free Action Network app.
0:30
Speaker 1: It's award winning, It's got everything you need on this
0:33
Speaker 1: podcast today. I'm gonna be joined as I am every
0:37
Speaker 1: time we do this show by my bff, my companion,
0:40
Speaker 1: my compadre. He's in the foxhole with me. He walks
0:45
Speaker 1: into hornets nests in protective gear. He's triple vexed professional
0:51
Speaker 1: better Simon Hunter. Before we came on here, Cam Newton
0:55
Speaker 1: to the Carolina Panthers, what do you what do you
0:57
Speaker 1: think of that? Is that a real signing? Is this real? Dude?
1:00
Speaker 1: Is that serious? We we did not talk about this
1:02
Speaker 1: before we came on the air. No I saw right
1:05
Speaker 1: before we hopped on on social media. Cam Newton apparently
1:08
Speaker 1: got vaccinated. So now teams are interviewing the Carolina Panthers.
1:11
Speaker 1: Cam Newton. Time is a flat circle. That would be crazy.
1:14
Speaker 1: If you actually signed there, that would be nuts. I
1:16
Speaker 1: don't know that it would do anything Honestly, if I
1:20
Speaker 1: were the Panthers, I'd still probably start p J. Walker
1:25
Speaker 1: this weekend. But yeah, and now he's definitely starting this week.
1:28
Speaker 1: But I think next week they play Washington. So it's
1:30
Speaker 1: it's just interesting all day from matchups. Big show today.
1:34
Speaker 1: It's Thursday, so we're gonna narrow down the field, talk
1:37
Speaker 1: about the games that on Tuesday we loved, see anything
1:41
Speaker 1: that might have changed our minds. Um, based on the market, news,
1:44
Speaker 1: based on injuries, based on prices changing. We're gonna do
1:48
Speaker 1: our sharp calls. We're gonna see who the wise guys
1:51
Speaker 1: called you about that they thought we were right or
1:53
Speaker 1: wrong on since Tuesday. Um, we will do our big
1:57
Speaker 1: balls better the week. Reminder, on Tuesday we said Washington
2:01
Speaker 1: football team plus nine and a half against the Bucks
2:03
Speaker 1: was our sign and says our foxhold was the Saints
2:06
Speaker 1: plus three. It's already down to two and a half.
2:08
Speaker 1: So we're not the only ones with that idea. We
2:10
Speaker 1: will still do a money line partly, but we'll also
2:13
Speaker 1: still offer a survivor pick. I got a lot of
2:15
Speaker 1: feedback that, yeah, our survivor pick would say, people people
2:19
Speaker 1: really want to survivra pick chat about it. So we'll
2:24
Speaker 1: talk about who we would take if we were still
2:26
Speaker 1: in it, based on the teams that we would have remaining.
2:28
Speaker 1: I think we know who that's going to be. I'm
2:30
Speaker 1: gonna keep track of it. So right now, we're gonna
2:33
Speaker 1: count last week as if we took Miami instead of
2:35
Speaker 1: taking what we did take in Dallas, so be as
2:38
Speaker 1: if we did win. That's nice. We can live in
2:41
Speaker 1: that alternate universe. But first let's get to it. Sharp calls, baby, Hello,
2:50
Speaker 1: who's there. I'm talking the early it calls like god,
3:00
Speaker 1: Sunday night and Monday morning, where guys talking about forty niners.
3:04
Speaker 1: They love that number. They thought that you're gonna good
3:06
Speaker 1: number four Nineers versus Cardinals at plus four. It's down
3:09
Speaker 1: to plus three and a half in a lot of books.
3:11
Speaker 1: The newest calls I got, people are gonna like as
3:13
Speaker 1: much they love Miami tonight seven and a half. You
3:16
Speaker 1: can still get that hook. They're all over it. They
3:18
Speaker 1: think this is a really good position to be taking
3:20
Speaker 1: this Miami team. They're undervalue. You're playing against Ravens team
3:24
Speaker 1: that historically they beat up on really bad teams. But
3:27
Speaker 1: it's not great when you're getting a physical team like
3:29
Speaker 1: the Ravens on a short week in the game they
3:31
Speaker 1: just went to over time against against the team in
3:33
Speaker 1: Miami that they are terrible. I understand completely why people
3:37
Speaker 1: hate this Miami team, but you just have to play
3:40
Speaker 1: the numbers. Two. You're getting seven a half at home
3:42
Speaker 1: on a Thursday night. It's it's it's a hard not
3:45
Speaker 1: to agree with the professionals. This one and the other
3:48
Speaker 1: game they really kept reaching out to me about was, uh,
3:52
Speaker 1: they love our they love our Jets pick chat. That
3:57
Speaker 1: was thirteen and a half and we talked about it.
3:59
Speaker 1: It's down to twelve of it. A lot of books
4:00
Speaker 1: now that Mike Whites announces the quarterback, So now how
4:03
Speaker 1: much just changed there as well? Uh, I would say
4:07
Speaker 1: the one they want us to stay away from. I
4:08
Speaker 1: don't know if we would even do it anyway was
4:11
Speaker 1: the Eagles. A lot of pros I've talked to like
4:13
Speaker 1: Denver actually that matchup, so it doesn't matter anyway. We
4:16
Speaker 1: weren't gonna do the Eagles because I've banned them for us.
4:18
Speaker 1: But a couple of pros I've talked to they really
4:21
Speaker 1: like Denver in this matchup at home? Why do they
4:23
Speaker 1: like Denver? Did they say, uh, they just having the
4:27
Speaker 1: different projections where they thought last week that Eagles game
4:30
Speaker 1: was the perfect game for that Eagles team. They still lost.
4:33
Speaker 1: So the one probably talked to you we had at
4:35
Speaker 1: five and a half for Denver. Another one talked to
4:37
Speaker 1: about at four. I had the line of three. So
4:39
Speaker 1: I think it's a good number. That's why I kind
4:40
Speaker 1: of like the Eagles. But if you're just looking at
4:44
Speaker 1: pure matchup on paper, the only way to really stopped
4:47
Speaker 1: Teddy is getting to him. The Eagles are one of
4:49
Speaker 1: the lowest teams and pressures on quarterbacks this year. They
4:52
Speaker 1: were the lowest sack rates of all teams this year.
4:54
Speaker 1: I mean, our biggest, our best guy are are highest
4:57
Speaker 1: sac rate guy, Brandon Graham. He's been out and you
5:00
Speaker 1: really noticed that the last couple of weeks. Eagles are
5:02
Speaker 1: just not getting to the quarterback. So I think they
5:04
Speaker 1: looking at a position that Denver is getting healthier. They
5:06
Speaker 1: got Jerry Judy back on all offense, it looks like
5:08
Speaker 1: they got their running game going last week against an
5:11
Speaker 1: Eagles team that Slade could be on the secondary. Just
5:14
Speaker 1: a couple of different things with this defense that they
5:16
Speaker 1: just have not been good. And I think it's five
5:19
Speaker 1: different quarterbacks have complete over against the Eagles team. Teddy
5:22
Speaker 1: is a really high percentage completion quarterback. This is a
5:25
Speaker 1: really fable matchup firm. So it makes sense now when
5:28
Speaker 1: you really look back at it, why these professionals like
5:30
Speaker 1: Denver in this position, Well, not all of a sudden.
5:33
Speaker 1: I love I love Denver. I wasn't even talking about it. Now.
5:35
Speaker 1: I think it's like Denver's going to the super Bowl.
5:38
Speaker 1: And that's why I love having different guys reach out
5:40
Speaker 1: to me, because they kind of opened up exactly what
5:42
Speaker 1: you're you're saying there, like it kind of opened up
5:44
Speaker 1: an ave and I wasn't looking at it. And then
5:46
Speaker 1: when you go back and look at it, you know what,
5:48
Speaker 1: maybe I am too low. Maybe this line shouldn't be
5:50
Speaker 1: three and it should be four, And they're right, you're
5:51
Speaker 1: getting an extra point or point and a half of
5:53
Speaker 1: value on this Denver team. So I'm right there with you.
5:56
Speaker 1: I really didn't like Denver that much going into this week,
5:58
Speaker 1: and now the more I think about it's like, you
6:00
Speaker 1: know it, Actually that's a good pick. All right, Well
6:03
Speaker 1: maybe we'll add it to the list. Um, let's start
6:07
Speaker 1: with the game that we said with Simon says the
6:11
Speaker 1: Washington football team plus nine and a half against the Bucks.
6:14
Speaker 1: I'll stick with it, as Simon says, but I do
6:18
Speaker 1: have some trepidation as we get further from Tuesday and
6:22
Speaker 1: our instant reactions. Are you feeling the same trepidation betting
6:27
Speaker 1: against Tom Brady after a bye? Then I am no,
6:31
Speaker 1: and you can go. Look. I think teams after a
6:33
Speaker 1: bye this year three and nine against the spread. Tom
6:36
Speaker 1: Brady has not covered a game on the road yet,
6:38
Speaker 1: which is something we love. Another thing I love about
6:41
Speaker 1: this game is I think I talked to three or
6:43
Speaker 1: from bookmakers, and all of them are getting tons and
6:46
Speaker 1: tons of Tampa money, tons of Tampa teasers. What is
6:50
Speaker 1: this line done? Nothing? It's just sat there nine and
6:52
Speaker 1: a half. So if it was going up, if it
6:54
Speaker 1: was at eleven right now, maybe I'd be a little
6:56
Speaker 1: worried because that means professionals of coming in bet Tampa.
7:00
Speaker 1: It's not looking that way. It just looks like it's
7:01
Speaker 1: all public money hitting this. Uh. You know, I can't
7:05
Speaker 1: blame when Tom Brady, like you just said, after a boye,
7:07
Speaker 1: you you assume they're going to get it right. But
7:09
Speaker 1: to me, this is just a prime example why you
7:12
Speaker 1: take this Washington team at home and kind of a
7:14
Speaker 1: letdown spot for Tampa. But I I can't see them
7:17
Speaker 1: really getting up for this matchup. As much as I'd
7:19
Speaker 1: love to say Tom gets up for every game, this
7:22
Speaker 1: is such a classic let down game for this team.
7:25
Speaker 1: So now I'm not betting. I don't know if I'll
7:27
Speaker 1: have him in the round robin the money line with
7:29
Speaker 1: Washington because Tom he has the ball at anytime in
7:32
Speaker 1: the final couple of minutes against this defense of Washington.
7:36
Speaker 1: I just can't see Washington get stops. But at nine
7:39
Speaker 1: and a half, this line is overvalued by two points.
7:41
Speaker 1: I still think you're getting a great number here. I
7:44
Speaker 1: do want it on the record. Okay, so we'll stick
7:46
Speaker 1: with with Washington football team not and a half. We
7:49
Speaker 1: still like it. I do want it on the record.
7:52
Speaker 1: I still like the Lions. That numbers down to plus eight.
7:55
Speaker 1: I like it less. You still like the Steelers. You
7:59
Speaker 1: and I are on what they call opposite sides. Yeah
8:04
Speaker 1: I don't. I don't love Pittsburgh. What are you walking back?
8:08
Speaker 1: I'm a man of conviction. Definitely, I love the Lions.
8:12
Speaker 1: I'm with you. The more I look at this is
8:13
Speaker 1: the classic UM I'm gonna end up taking Pittsburgh and
8:16
Speaker 1: survivor pools. And this is the game they lose against
8:19
Speaker 1: the lines, the first one of the season for the lines.
8:21
Speaker 1: But no, it's nothing's really changed. Yeah, I still I'm
8:25
Speaker 1: still gonna know Ben in Pittsburgh. I still think Pittsburgh
8:28
Speaker 1: is gonna win this game and cover this number. I
8:29
Speaker 1: just I just have zero faith right now in the lines.
8:33
Speaker 1: But going off our joke that the lines don't cover
8:36
Speaker 1: one week, in the final week they cover, and they've
8:37
Speaker 1: done it all year, this technically is one of the
8:40
Speaker 1: weeks you take the lines to cover if you're going
8:42
Speaker 1: off that pattern. This season, also you got the opposite
8:46
Speaker 1: of rab Mike. I love the false enthusiasm. I'm gonna say,
8:52
Speaker 1: we can make what do you guys quit today? They
8:54
Speaker 1: are a home team, is a big favorite with a
8:58
Speaker 1: quarterback that isn't playing well uh and has to score
9:02
Speaker 1: a lot of points to cover a big number against
9:06
Speaker 1: a team that is not going to quit. They are
9:09
Speaker 1: gonna eat those knee caps. They are not gonna stop
9:12
Speaker 1: until they are full. They can be down fourteen and
9:19
Speaker 1: there's a minute left and they have just scored a
9:22
Speaker 1: touchdown and they are going to on site kick it.
9:25
Speaker 1: They will just keep going. So this team is Detroit.
9:29
Speaker 1: We're gonna kick you in the teeth, and when you
9:30
Speaker 1: punch this, we're gonna smile at you. And when you
9:32
Speaker 1: knock us down, we're gonna get up. And on the
9:34
Speaker 1: way up, we're gonna buy a knee cap off. All right,
9:37
Speaker 1: We're gonna take your other knee cap. Before long, we're
9:39
Speaker 1: there going to be the last one standing. If you
9:41
Speaker 1: have this passion Sunday morning, we'll probably have the lines in.
9:44
Speaker 1: Just all that. Like I was gonna bed labs before
9:46
Speaker 1: he came on. There's a bunch of trends that favor
9:48
Speaker 1: what you're saying right now. I think Roethlisberger has a
9:50
Speaker 1: seven a half point favorite at home. He's owing six
9:52
Speaker 1: in his last six covering. So a bunch of different
9:56
Speaker 1: little trends I really favorite towards what you're saying right now.
9:59
Speaker 1: So why are you fight me? Why even fight me?
10:01
Speaker 1: Why say that you're gonna take the Steelers just because
10:04
Speaker 1: I make a number in my system. So if my
10:07
Speaker 1: system saying this number three and a half and it
10:09
Speaker 1: was at nine now it's down to eight, I still
10:11
Speaker 1: have to go with Pittsburgh. So it's that's how it goes, buddy. Well, listen,
10:15
Speaker 1: sometimes you gotta break away from the system. Don't be
10:18
Speaker 1: beholden to the math all the time. Go with your feelings. Um.
10:25
Speaker 1: We also talked a lot about the Browns and the Patriots,
10:27
Speaker 1: and this is one where, um, the line was at one.
10:34
Speaker 1: Now the line is at two and a half. Uh,
10:37
Speaker 1: so we've seen money and tickets come out in the Patriots.
10:42
Speaker 1: I'm starting to feel like the Browns on the right
10:43
Speaker 1: side here. If it gets the three, I might have
10:46
Speaker 1: to be there with you. That's what I was talking about.
10:48
Speaker 1: This line kept going up, but eventually at three, the
10:51
Speaker 1: Browns become the value in this position. And I think
10:54
Speaker 1: the lines just moving because of the Nick Chubb like
10:56
Speaker 1: he he's out right, I'm pretty sure. So you know,
11:00
Speaker 1: pros are looking at that. They're saying, okay, the best
11:02
Speaker 1: weapon off this offense has gone now and Nick Chubb,
11:06
Speaker 1: but I don't know it's I'm right there with you.
11:09
Speaker 1: I don't have a great feel for it. But if
11:10
Speaker 1: it does get the three, and if it was three
11:12
Speaker 1: in our our contest, our imaginary contest, I guess I
11:15
Speaker 1: would take that's uh. With the Browns. But to me,
11:18
Speaker 1: there's other matchups that I like better and there's more
11:20
Speaker 1: value on the lines. Yeah, I agree, I totally agree.
11:24
Speaker 1: Um uh, let's talk about the Cowboys. Let's spend a
11:30
Speaker 1: decent amount of time talking about the Cowboys for a second,
11:34
Speaker 1: because well before that, I don't want to I don't
11:38
Speaker 1: want to short change the Colts. It was a big number.
11:41
Speaker 1: We like it as the Colts at minus ten? Do
11:44
Speaker 1: we contest like it? Do we like it top five
11:48
Speaker 1: like it? Or do we like it like you know,
11:50
Speaker 1: it's the right number and it's what we should do
11:53
Speaker 1: because this Jaguars team is coming off a big win,
11:55
Speaker 1: the Coults are coming off of bye. It's the right
11:58
Speaker 1: spot for them to blow a team out. Like, you
12:00
Speaker 1: know how I go though, if it's if it's either,
12:02
Speaker 1: I'm taking a double digit favorite, double digit dog, Like
12:05
Speaker 1: I'd rather take the Jets of the double digit dog
12:07
Speaker 1: than take the Colts of the double digit favorite, So
12:09
Speaker 1: I'm always gonna go towards that. But yeah, I still
12:12
Speaker 1: love the Colts in this matchup. This is a classic.
12:16
Speaker 1: You just want to fade the Jaguars af there such
12:18
Speaker 1: a huge win at home, young team, party been been
12:21
Speaker 1: partying all week. Um, it's it's not ideal, um because
12:27
Speaker 1: it's once again we'll be back in Carson Wentz and
12:30
Speaker 1: that's always just the roller coaster rider roller coaster rides.
12:32
Speaker 1: But that's a great number if it stays under twelve.
12:36
Speaker 1: To me, that's a that's a very very fair number
12:38
Speaker 1: for this Colts team. So I still like it. But
12:41
Speaker 1: like we can talk about this Dallas matchup that to
12:44
Speaker 1: me has been the most interesting movement of all the
12:46
Speaker 1: week is how the pros are really coming in on
12:47
Speaker 1: Atlanta and they bet this number down. Yeah, I don't
12:50
Speaker 1: get it, and I'm with you. I like it's it's
12:54
Speaker 1: a weird game. To me, it feels like the exact
12:58
Speaker 1: right spot to be betting the Cowboys. From a matchup
13:02
Speaker 1: point of view, it plays to the Cowboys strengths in
13:06
Speaker 1: which the Falcons are a team that is going to
13:09
Speaker 1: put the ball in the air. They are going to
13:11
Speaker 1: be in a position where they where the Cowboys can
13:14
Speaker 1: create turnovers. Um, the Falcons running the Russian game is
13:19
Speaker 1: really not very good. Uh. The Cowboys are coming off
13:23
Speaker 1: such a huge loss that you're getting a bit of
13:25
Speaker 1: a discount on the number. Everything to me smacks take
13:29
Speaker 1: the Cowboys here? How do you not? And that's why
13:32
Speaker 1: I don't really get what the proser scene. This is
13:34
Speaker 1: such a Atlanta just had a huge win against the
13:37
Speaker 1: divisional opponent that they notoriously hate, so they've had a good,
13:41
Speaker 1: a nice week here where the Cowboys have an embarrassing
13:43
Speaker 1: loss at home. You know they're on it this week
13:46
Speaker 1: with practice another trend I loved. I saw, Um what
13:50
Speaker 1: was that? There might have been thirty one to seventeen, Um,
13:54
Speaker 1: what was the trend? So basically, a team that covers
13:57
Speaker 1: the final weeks, they're playing against the team that did
13:59
Speaker 1: not cover, the team that did not cover the past
14:01
Speaker 1: week against the team that dive covered. Now this week
14:04
Speaker 1: it's seventeen the team covers that didn't cover the week before.
14:07
Speaker 1: So that's a classic match up right here of that
14:10
Speaker 1: exact scenario where Atlanta not only didn't cover as a
14:13
Speaker 1: road dog, they want out right now going on the
14:15
Speaker 1: road again to play Dallas at home. We didn't cover
14:18
Speaker 1: at home as a big favorite. How do you not
14:21
Speaker 1: just going off the bed Labs numbers? How do you
14:24
Speaker 1: not just favorite towards the Cowboys with these kind of trends?
14:26
Speaker 1: So it's I'm staying in my I'm staying in my
14:29
Speaker 1: position here. I feel actually way better about this one
14:31
Speaker 1: where Pittsburgh again, Sunday morning, you call me up chat,
14:33
Speaker 1: you're all about Detroit. I could easily talked in the Detroit.
14:36
Speaker 1: There's no scenario could talked to Atlanta this week. I
14:39
Speaker 1: loved Dallas in this position, I feel like Cowboys right
14:42
Speaker 1: now are the most solid of the games that we
14:47
Speaker 1: are talking about, like consterms of our agreement. Yeah, all right, absolutely,
14:53
Speaker 1: I'm still a little nervous about Washington football team, even
14:56
Speaker 1: though even though by the way I chow was it
15:00
Speaker 1: as my screwtrow lempic and you chose the Saints as
15:02
Speaker 1: your screwture Lempic and I had the first pick, and
15:05
Speaker 1: we're gonna talk about the Saints because now I'm like,
15:08
Speaker 1: Saints are gonna win this game, and so I'm starting
15:10
Speaker 1: to feel a little bit dreadful now when we talked
15:13
Speaker 1: about the Saints. This is either a no brainer We're
15:16
Speaker 1: gonna crush this one, or it's just a classic professional trap,
15:20
Speaker 1: like the only people bet in the Saints here are prosed.
15:23
Speaker 1: We might be walking right into it. I can not
15:26
Speaker 1: do it. This is uh another trend for you friends
15:29
Speaker 1: from our friends of bed Labs nine and O the
15:31
Speaker 1: Saints as a road dog their last nine. So come on,
15:36
Speaker 1: I mean, how how can we not take the Saints here?
15:39
Speaker 1: This is also it's the overreaction game of the week, right,
15:43
Speaker 1: and the Titans are so overvalued in the market based
15:48
Speaker 1: on the winds they've had the past couple of weeks.
15:51
Speaker 1: They beat the Colts in dramatic fashion with some flukiness.
15:55
Speaker 1: They beat the Rams in dramatic fashion, meaning Derrick Henry
15:58
Speaker 1: is out, their big dog dogs they're on the road. Yeah,
16:04
Speaker 1: there's some there's some high variants in that game. They
16:07
Speaker 1: didn't win because they were uh well rounded team. Um,
16:14
Speaker 1: and the Saints defense is just so good you could
16:17
Speaker 1: argue is probably one of the best defenses in the NFL.
16:21
Speaker 1: And so to me, you've got Sean Payton, who's amazing
16:28
Speaker 1: as an underdog. I listened to Stucky and Raybond on
16:31
Speaker 1: the Action Network podcast this morning. Sean Payton the second
16:36
Speaker 1: most profitable coach against the spread coming off of a
16:39
Speaker 1: loss since two thousand three. Like everything screams this, this
16:46
Speaker 1: numbers moved. It was at three. Now it's a two
16:48
Speaker 1: and a half in a lot of places. I still
16:51
Speaker 1: better at the two and a half. This could be
16:54
Speaker 1: that game, It could be that Colts game from a
16:56
Speaker 1: few weeks ago. But how do I love this? Yeah?
17:01
Speaker 1: And I honestly would have. This has been one of
17:03
Speaker 1: my bigger bets of the week if it was not
17:05
Speaker 1: for the late ad of Kamara to the injury report.
17:08
Speaker 1: He has not practiced this week. We need Kamara, I mean,
17:12
Speaker 1: Alvin has been unbelievable this year for this team, so
17:16
Speaker 1: we want to wait a little bit see what's going
17:17
Speaker 1: on with that. But the fact that numbers come down
17:20
Speaker 1: even though he might be out of this game actually
17:22
Speaker 1: makes me feel even better. It goes oh man, the
17:24
Speaker 1: bookmakers don't think doesn't even matter the thing of mark
17:26
Speaker 1: Ingram can step in and be that guy for the
17:28
Speaker 1: Saints team. So very interesting that the injury news came
17:31
Speaker 1: out and the line moved the other way. So it's
17:35
Speaker 1: I just want to keep my eye on it. But
17:36
Speaker 1: apparently the bookmakers think irrelevant if this guy plays or not. Well, Look,
17:40
Speaker 1: I think it's an indication of all the money that's
17:42
Speaker 1: coming in on the Saints. It's all the professional money,
17:44
Speaker 1: you know. This is that game that everybody is talking
17:47
Speaker 1: about this week. Every week there is one of those games.
17:49
Speaker 1: This is it. We're an agreement. Oh yeah, so right now. See,
18:00
Speaker 1: I looked at my notes this morning before we started
18:02
Speaker 1: the podcast, and I felt like we were going to
18:06
Speaker 1: come out of here. We've probably three games that we
18:10
Speaker 1: felt incredibly good about, like Lockstep, locked in come Sunday,
18:18
Speaker 1: we're not gonna waiver and the Saints and the Cowboys
18:21
Speaker 1: are two of those games. To me down with you there,
18:24
Speaker 1: I mean, they're to me o the games that we
18:26
Speaker 1: we kind of locked in on Tuesday, like we were
18:28
Speaker 1: going to take those um the again. We can talk
18:32
Speaker 1: about now this Denver matchup. I feel like that might
18:34
Speaker 1: be one of the late ads we might be thrown
18:36
Speaker 1: in there. We're not talking about it yet. It's not
18:38
Speaker 1: it's not time for the Broncos yet. Okay, don't try
18:41
Speaker 1: to overrun the rundown. I got my own notes. Okay,
18:44
Speaker 1: well you got notes and I got notes. But we
18:48
Speaker 1: got to talk about the Bills and the Jets. Because
18:50
Speaker 1: you mentioned Mike White, the numbers moved from thirteen and
18:52
Speaker 1: a half to twelve and a half. H The hype
18:55
Speaker 1: is real, people. Now you got and we talked about
18:58
Speaker 1: this a Jets team that beat the Bengals at home
19:04
Speaker 1: as huge dogs, beat the Titans at home as huge dogs.
19:09
Speaker 1: Their defense plays well. Mike White, maybe he's legit. Maybe
19:15
Speaker 1: he was just a guy who had to throw at
19:17
Speaker 1: eighty nine times and that's why he threw for five
19:20
Speaker 1: yards or four hundred yards in that first game. But
19:23
Speaker 1: the Bills are stumbling bumbling right now, and two touchdown
19:28
Speaker 1: underdog at home. You blindly bet that it's not like
19:33
Speaker 1: if we're getting back to our principles and we're not
19:34
Speaker 1: going to be knocked off because of bad luck the
19:37
Speaker 1: past few weeks. You take the Jets. Yeah, obviously we
19:41
Speaker 1: loved that thirteen and a half. It's kind of tough
19:44
Speaker 1: now that it's down to eleven twelve, but we still
19:46
Speaker 1: like the number. We still think the values there. Uh.
19:49
Speaker 1: The craziest thing to me is that the Tennessee Titans,
19:52
Speaker 1: who beat the Buffalo Bills at home, played this exact
19:55
Speaker 1: team like you just said in the in New Jersey.
19:58
Speaker 1: They played the Jets the wide open seven and a
20:00
Speaker 1: half by clothes. I think it was down to four
20:02
Speaker 1: just because the pros really came in heavy on the
20:05
Speaker 1: Jets and Tennessee had a bunch of injuries going into
20:07
Speaker 1: that game. Okay, so that number closed at four. If
20:10
Speaker 1: this game says closed at ten, are the Bills really
20:13
Speaker 1: six points better than Tennessee right now? I don't think so.
20:17
Speaker 1: Um so interesting what the bookmakers are doing here. They
20:20
Speaker 1: they hung this pretty high just to get some public money,
20:23
Speaker 1: you know, in a big number on a big favorite,
20:25
Speaker 1: and make them pay to tease it down. Now they're
20:28
Speaker 1: moving it down because that's how much professionals money coming
20:30
Speaker 1: on the Jets. They're they're right there with us. Yeah,
20:33
Speaker 1: they're they're saying theirselves, the NFL hasn't figured out Mike
20:36
Speaker 1: White yet. They don't know what defense to run against them.
20:39
Speaker 1: The Bills. It's not that we predicted this coming into
20:44
Speaker 1: the year with um them being this bad at five
20:46
Speaker 1: and three, again, that's not that bad, but they've had
20:48
Speaker 1: these games they've lost they really shouldn't have lost. Now
20:51
Speaker 1: we're kind of getting that idea that, you know, what's
20:54
Speaker 1: exactly what we talked about the last year, Josh Youn
20:57
Speaker 1: had the best career year of his life. We were
21:00
Speaker 1: saying to him, do it again, and then we'll believe
21:02
Speaker 1: in you do do it. Back to back seasons it's
21:05
Speaker 1: not looking like it did last year. A bunch of
21:07
Speaker 1: different things he's doing wrong. It's kind of if you're
21:11
Speaker 1: a Bills fan, it's gonna be a little worried that
21:13
Speaker 1: this is your franchise quarterback and he's reverting back to old,
21:16
Speaker 1: sloppy habits from his rookie years. So as much as
21:19
Speaker 1: we love the Jets here, this is a prime spot
21:21
Speaker 1: to get right for Josh Down. This is one of
21:23
Speaker 1: the worst past defenses in football, and then New York
21:25
Speaker 1: New York Jets. They have a good front line, their
21:28
Speaker 1: secondary is terrible. So if he's gonna figure it out,
21:32
Speaker 1: this this has to be the matchup for Josh Down
21:33
Speaker 1: to figure it out. But I got no issue taking
21:36
Speaker 1: Mike White here in a backdoor situation where if he
21:39
Speaker 1: has the ball. I'm excited to see what this kid
21:41
Speaker 1: can do because I've only seen him maybe ten fool
21:45
Speaker 1: drives by him in his career. He's put up points
21:47
Speaker 1: and by eight of them, Like he he is really
21:50
Speaker 1: good at driving the field and doing stuff with this offense.
21:53
Speaker 1: So if the Bills keep running the defense they've been
21:56
Speaker 1: running like they ran the last couple of weeks, they've
21:58
Speaker 1: been running kind of a weird zone scheme where it's
22:00
Speaker 1: kind of what these teams are doing against my homes
22:01
Speaker 1: are just giving up the short stuff. They're letting you
22:03
Speaker 1: run it against them, but they're gonna let you beat
22:05
Speaker 1: them beat That's that's where Mike White thrives. That's what
22:08
Speaker 1: the cult ran against him. He was hitting guys in
22:09
Speaker 1: between the numbers, all up and down the field. I
22:11
Speaker 1: mean he drove down the field is opening drive. It's
22:15
Speaker 1: it's a it's a big number, but I'm not scared
22:18
Speaker 1: of it. The fact that's come down is the only problem.
22:22
Speaker 1: That's like, I'm not gonna try to harp on that
22:23
Speaker 1: too much because episode burned us the last couple of weeks.
22:25
Speaker 1: Is me being too much of a oh, we're not
22:27
Speaker 1: getting the best of number. I don't want to take
22:29
Speaker 1: this number. I feel like we have to take the
22:31
Speaker 1: Jets as long as it's above ten and a half eleven.
22:36
Speaker 1: What's interesting about this Bill's team is fascinating, and the
22:41
Speaker 1: Titans team is fascinating. And what you just said about
22:45
Speaker 1: this number and the delta of about six points of
22:48
Speaker 1: value based on the Bookmaker's math between the Titans and
22:51
Speaker 1: the Bills, that that that speaks to why we are
22:55
Speaker 1: also confident about the Saints, and that the the betting
23:00
Speaker 1: markets that are the professional betting markets of bookmakers and
23:03
Speaker 1: wise guys, have zero respect for the Titans. They look
23:07
Speaker 1: at that, They look at that record as completely fraudulent.
23:11
Speaker 1: I feel better about betting the Saints now knowing a
23:15
Speaker 1: little bit more about the sort of transitive properties of
23:19
Speaker 1: that bill's jets number. Now I'm with you on that,
23:24
Speaker 1: all right, I'm not I'm not uncomfortable with this. You
23:26
Speaker 1: know what, I think? It was our friend Bruce Arians
23:29
Speaker 1: who once said, no risk it, no biscuit. Guess what,
23:33
Speaker 1: I fucking love biscuits. It's not really true. I'm not
23:37
Speaker 1: a carves guy, but if I did eat carbs, biscuits
23:41
Speaker 1: would be the carbs that I eat. Oh man, you
23:44
Speaker 1: gotta get some Hawaiian bread. That's the car you want
23:46
Speaker 1: to eat. We got like the Hawaiian bread in my
23:47
Speaker 1: kitchen right now. My kids love the Hawaiian bread. They do.
23:53
Speaker 1: By the way, thanks to UH, A lot of people
23:56
Speaker 1: tweeted at me and said they hope my kid was
23:59
Speaker 1: feeling better, which is really sweet of people to do. Yeah,
24:02
Speaker 1: I got dams too, I said, tell chat this that's funny. Yeah,
24:07
Speaker 1: he's doing well. He's sitting on the couch right now,
24:09
Speaker 1: zooming into his classes, being treated like a king. And
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26:28
Speaker 1: not going to talk about the Vikings and Chargers. This
26:29
Speaker 1: number has moved. Uh it's three and a half now,
26:32
Speaker 1: it was two and a half. I think the Vikings
26:34
Speaker 1: were the right side. Anyways, Um, we weren't talking about
26:37
Speaker 1: on our contest. Obviously there's some COVID potential COVID issues
26:40
Speaker 1: there and coming out. So it feels like a pass
26:45
Speaker 1: to me. Yeah, And like the drama Dalvin Cook, like
26:48
Speaker 1: this guy's either a victim or he's a horrible human being.
26:53
Speaker 1: He's trying to play a victim where he did something
26:55
Speaker 1: terrible in domestic violence case. So I'm right there with
26:58
Speaker 1: I don't want to get burned any more by this
27:00
Speaker 1: COVID news, by these backups. Let's just stay away from
27:03
Speaker 1: this one. Can we talk about the Panthers and the Cardinals? Though? Please?
27:09
Speaker 1: Are we missing an opportunity with the Panthers? One of
27:12
Speaker 1: the reasons what's up we're on the we talk we
27:16
Speaker 1: like the Panthers. Tuesday we did I don't have I
27:19
Speaker 1: don't have it in my notes, do you Well? Our
27:20
Speaker 1: big thing was we wanted to make sure Sam Arnold
27:22
Speaker 1: was out and he is we're in, baby, dude, then
27:27
Speaker 1: we are one hundred percent in on this game. Yeah. No,
27:32
Speaker 1: The joke was like the line the bookmakers hang this
27:35
Speaker 1: line saying, we don't care what the quarterback is. If
27:37
Speaker 1: it's cool, McCoy will let it be ten. The public
27:40
Speaker 1: is going right there with him. They're saying, you know what,
27:41
Speaker 1: we're with you, guys. This is uh, this is a
27:43
Speaker 1: good number. We'll take the ten. So I like this
27:47
Speaker 1: Carolina team, but we're gonna end up on one of
27:51
Speaker 1: these big dogs. We're definitely going the Jets over Carolina.
27:55
Speaker 1: Um P J. Walker, He I think I feel like
27:58
Speaker 1: his first passes a pixel X when he came in there,
28:01
Speaker 1: like a couple of weeks ago, or maybe it was
28:02
Speaker 1: a drop pick six, but it's it's scary um taking
28:06
Speaker 1: this kid. But Cole McCoy ten point favorite, come on,
28:09
Speaker 1: that's that's insane. Come on, man, against this deep offense
28:13
Speaker 1: of Carolina. I mean, you gotta take care of Have
28:17
Speaker 1: I told you my cult McCoy story, don't you dare?
28:22
Speaker 1: Our good buddy DAVEC Chicago Bears texting me the other day,
28:27
Speaker 1: He's like, we've heard the Dave X story. We've we've
28:31
Speaker 1: heard the day. We've heard the cult McCoy story. We've
28:33
Speaker 1: heard it like four times. It's more painful every time too.
28:35
Speaker 1: That's the best part. Can I say, I'm an old
28:40
Speaker 1: person who only has so many stories and I can't
28:43
Speaker 1: remember them all. But we love this Panthers game. Yeah,
28:48
Speaker 1: I do. I really love it again. I'm gonna paraphrase
28:52
Speaker 1: Stucky here from their podcast this morning because they loved
28:56
Speaker 1: it too, and one of the things that stood out
28:58
Speaker 1: to me he had some great insight talking about regression.
29:02
Speaker 1: And we've talked about this with the Cowboys a lot
29:04
Speaker 1: in relation to their turnovers. And that's why last week
29:09
Speaker 1: they're like, we had the Cowboys in the in the
29:11
Speaker 1: survivor pool, but I don't think we were convinced they
29:13
Speaker 1: were going to cover. And they are so reliant on
29:16
Speaker 1: turnovers to create offense and UH and and win their games.
29:23
Speaker 1: There had to be a regression. The Cardinals, according to
29:27
Speaker 1: Stucky Uh, they fumble most in the NFL, lose the
29:32
Speaker 1: second FEUs fumbles in the NFL. Opponents are fumbling the
29:36
Speaker 1: second most in the NFL against them, losing the most
29:39
Speaker 1: against them. So they're getting some really lucky bounces. And
29:43
Speaker 1: if you look at the Niners, early fumbles led to
29:45
Speaker 1: early points against the Browns big win, early fumbles led
29:48
Speaker 1: at early points, Like there is a regression coming for
29:51
Speaker 1: this team. And if it's gonna be Colt McCoy, if
29:53
Speaker 1: there's not gonna be uh DeAndre Hopkins, if there's not
29:56
Speaker 1: gonna be a J Green, a Panthers defense where we
30:00
Speaker 1: you know, they want to run the ball, and the
30:01
Speaker 1: Cardinals defense is thirty first in the NFL. And ardge
30:03
Speaker 1: p Rush that to me, says Panthers, And the stuff
30:08
Speaker 1: is interesting in the aggression stuff is sometimes when it
30:10
Speaker 1: happened as quickly as you'd like it to happen. So
30:12
Speaker 1: that is always a little bit of risk where I mean,
30:15
Speaker 1: even just saying off the top, I had the Eagles
30:17
Speaker 1: year we won the Super Bowl, we had the same
30:19
Speaker 1: exact thing. We have the highest fumbling rate without losing
30:21
Speaker 1: fumbles because our quarterback was Carson Wentz, who fumbled I
30:23
Speaker 1: felt like every game, but so I always got it back.
30:25
Speaker 1: So I'm with stuck you though, I I look at
30:29
Speaker 1: this Cardinals team that I do think they're good. They're
30:31
Speaker 1: a playoff team, no doubt. Are they the you know,
30:34
Speaker 1: no doubt? Number one see in the NFC. You know
30:36
Speaker 1: there's seven and one right now, everything is just going right.
30:39
Speaker 1: I don't know about that. And the Cole McCoy back
30:41
Speaker 1: to back starts. This is like, this is what we
30:44
Speaker 1: always say about Cole McCoy. He can give you one
30:46
Speaker 1: or two good starts, but eventually he's gonna fall off
30:47
Speaker 1: a cliff. And then this matchup. You have to take
30:50
Speaker 1: Carolina's defense. Uh, they played well against England. It was
30:54
Speaker 1: more about Sam Donald just given three picks short fields.
30:56
Speaker 1: That's how they lost. We got We talked about the
31:00
Speaker 1: Broncos an Eagles, so we'll leave them on the list.
31:01
Speaker 1: I don't think we need to say more about that.
31:03
Speaker 1: We have two other games that we want to talk about.
31:05
Speaker 1: The Raiders plus two and a half against the Chiefs.
31:09
Speaker 1: You've been on the Raiders all year, and you've been
31:11
Speaker 1: ahead of the market on them, and you've continue to
31:13
Speaker 1: stick with them, and I have been definant. I was
31:16
Speaker 1: right last weekend against the Giants. I feel like they're
31:20
Speaker 1: a live dog this weekend. Yeah. But that's the scariest
31:23
Speaker 1: part is everyone's caught up to it now with this
31:25
Speaker 1: Chief's nonsense. Chiefs are still favorites and the crazy Part
31:30
Speaker 1: two is the bookmakers are still respecting the Chiefs. Like
31:33
Speaker 1: that number they hung last week, they hung the seven
31:35
Speaker 1: and a half, or they maybe maybe one up to eight.
31:37
Speaker 1: At one point they moved all that number all up
31:39
Speaker 1: to eight. When Aaron Rodgers announced the out public came
31:42
Speaker 1: in heavy. They bet it down to seven and a half.
31:45
Speaker 1: They bet it down to seven. The bookmakers, let's stay
31:47
Speaker 1: at seven and a half. That was an easy cover
31:49
Speaker 1: for the public last week, fading the Chiefs. So they
31:52
Speaker 1: might have overadjusted now at this point, but you're giving me.
31:56
Speaker 1: I feel like the Raiders are a better team right now.
31:59
Speaker 1: With everything that's going on in Kansas City, all the
32:01
Speaker 1: dramas going on, my homes just hasn't looked right. That
32:03
Speaker 1: offense does not look right. That defense is still terrible.
32:06
Speaker 1: I mean just because that in Jordan's Loves first start
32:09
Speaker 1: that he couldn't do anything. You only put up whatever
32:10
Speaker 1: it was, seven points. That's that's more about the problems
32:14
Speaker 1: of Jordan Love. Their car is gonna have a day
32:16
Speaker 1: against his chief's defense. So I'm right there with you.
32:19
Speaker 1: I like Las Vegas, I like them on the money line,
32:22
Speaker 1: I'm not even taking the two and a half. This
32:24
Speaker 1: is truly a whoever's last possession is probably gonna win
32:28
Speaker 1: this matchup. So I like Las Vegas a lot in
32:31
Speaker 1: this position, but I don't know if it's been one
32:33
Speaker 1: of my best five. Um it's if it was three
32:37
Speaker 1: or three and a half, I'd feel way better about
32:38
Speaker 1: taking this number. I think we're narrowing down a pretty
32:42
Speaker 1: good list though, right now for Sunday that we feel
32:47
Speaker 1: decently strong about. Let's talk about the Niners before we
32:50
Speaker 1: get some money line parlay and survivor. This next game
32:53
Speaker 1: has to be our big balls Better the Week. It
32:55
Speaker 1: must be the big balls Better the Week, because we
32:58
Speaker 1: already did washing football team. As Simon says, you know
33:02
Speaker 1: what we're going to talk about, New York Jets, huge
33:06
Speaker 1: underdogs at home against the Buffalo Bills. Big balls Better
33:10
Speaker 1: the Week. Oh my god, we almost did that in tune.
33:17
Speaker 1: All right, let's talk about this Niners game. Really interesting
33:20
Speaker 1: to me, really interesting to me. We loved it. We
33:24
Speaker 1: thought it was too many points in a divisional matchup.
33:27
Speaker 1: We thought that the market was coming off the Niners
33:30
Speaker 1: in a way that felt like it was a little
33:32
Speaker 1: bit too much. The line has moved in the direction
33:36
Speaker 1: of the Niners, it. It It was at four and a half.
33:38
Speaker 1: In some places it's down to three and a half.
33:40
Speaker 1: You were getting calls immediately that they had this power
33:43
Speaker 1: Raider at San Francisco one. So there's still a decent
33:45
Speaker 1: amount of value there. Talk to me, what are we
33:47
Speaker 1: thinking right now? It's only making me feel better as
33:50
Speaker 1: the week is going along. Here, a couple more pros
33:53
Speaker 1: are on it. They loved the number as well. I
33:55
Speaker 1: talked a couple of different bookmakers in the Philadelphia area
33:57
Speaker 1: and a couple of down A c that they this
34:00
Speaker 1: is one of their smallest handles. Like more people have
34:02
Speaker 1: been on Washington. They're bet in the forty niners. We
34:05
Speaker 1: got a perfect storm here. Chat. This is what I
34:07
Speaker 1: always talk about. It's a rare opportunity where you have
34:09
Speaker 1: a standalone game, so it's a prime time game. You
34:12
Speaker 1: have a home team getting less than ten per cent
34:14
Speaker 1: of the money and tener cent of the bets. All love, love, love.
34:18
Speaker 1: If I haven't been licking my wound so hard the
34:21
Speaker 1: last couple of weeks, this will be one of my
34:22
Speaker 1: biggest bets of the season. Like, I'd be all in
34:24
Speaker 1: on this bet, but I'm trying to be the professional
34:27
Speaker 1: and say you've been cold, don't don't force the hand here,
34:30
Speaker 1: because this is like a poker hand, Like I have
34:32
Speaker 1: pocket aces right now, Like the only thing I can
34:34
Speaker 1: screw me over is the flop. I'm just trying to
34:37
Speaker 1: be smart here because this is too easy. The public
34:39
Speaker 1: is gonna get sucked in here. Even if they have
34:41
Speaker 1: a great Sunday, They're gonna lose it all in this
34:43
Speaker 1: game because everyone's gonna ben in the Rams. They love
34:46
Speaker 1: their Rams. When this moves down to three, which I
34:49
Speaker 1: think it will, the public is gonna come in so
34:51
Speaker 1: heavy on this number to take the four niners while
34:53
Speaker 1: you still get the three and a half. This is
34:55
Speaker 1: a prime, prime time to take this number. They suck.
34:59
Speaker 1: I know, Shane Hanson Bucks, They're terrible. Everything's going wrong
35:01
Speaker 1: for them. This is a gut right game for them.
35:04
Speaker 1: This is like the perfect time you want to take
35:06
Speaker 1: your You're literally buying at the lowest value of the
35:09
Speaker 1: whole season on his four Niners team. It ain't gonna
35:10
Speaker 1: get any lower than right now, So nothing's changed. I
35:13
Speaker 1: still love this number. I'm just not gonna be betting
35:15
Speaker 1: closest six figures on it, just because I've just been
35:17
Speaker 1: that cold. Why are you so fa scared I'm a coward?
35:20
Speaker 1: Play the drought man that I'm a sucking coward. I'm
35:23
Speaker 1: calling you out, Simon Hunter, professional coward. What am I
35:29
Speaker 1: looking at right now? You're a coward. You ain't nothing
35:33
Speaker 1: but a gun. Yell a turn you know you're just
35:36
Speaker 1: a goddamn color. It's wrong, dude, you yell you're a coward.
35:42
Speaker 1: Pull up pants and be a man. You're gonna get that.
35:47
Speaker 1: Don't let me down here, God damn coward, be a man,
35:54
Speaker 1: Simon take the forty niners, pathetic. You're a coward. When
36:00
Speaker 1: I knew you, when I knew you, you were not
36:03
Speaker 1: a coward. This job ruined me. Chat I used to
36:06
Speaker 1: be a man. I'd hair in my chest. Now I
36:08
Speaker 1: shaved my chest. I feel bad. I feel bad that
36:10
Speaker 1: I did this to you. I feel bad that I
36:12
Speaker 1: I tempted you with fame and no fortune and this
36:17
Speaker 1: callus on my hands. Look out, no callous easy life.
36:20
Speaker 1: You're fucking soft. I agree with you. It sounds like
36:25
Speaker 1: I'm forcing it in. Cowboys, Niners, Saints. I said we'd
36:29
Speaker 1: come out of this with three that we love. We
36:31
Speaker 1: love Cowboys, Niners and Saints. I think when we talk
36:34
Speaker 1: on Sunday, it's going to be a debate between for
36:37
Speaker 1: the final two Raiders, Panthers, Broncos, and we'll see what
36:42
Speaker 1: happens with the Browns and the Lions and whoever Chris
36:45
Speaker 1: Raybon takes on our show. We won't fade them. No
36:47
Speaker 1: matter what. Agbon is on fire. He swept everything last
36:53
Speaker 1: week on this podcast. Them swept. It's crazy. Whatever Raybon says,
36:59
Speaker 1: we're just gonna be alright, Chris, Yeah, pretty much. That's it.
37:04
Speaker 1: All right. Let's say the Survivor pool pick of the week.
37:16
Speaker 1: Let's say, Yeah, let's say we took Miami and Survivor
37:18
Speaker 1: last week. If we took Miami and Survivors last week,
37:20
Speaker 1: I feel like we're taking the Bills this week on
37:23
Speaker 1: the road. Well, then we're taking the Colts. So we
37:26
Speaker 1: already used Colts in ours. We took them against the Texans.
37:29
Speaker 1: So that's why we're either looking at Pittsburgh, we're the Cowboys. Well,
37:34
Speaker 1: we're taking the Cowboys. Then we think the Cowboys are
37:36
Speaker 1: going to cover. So love the Cowboys. We love the Cowboys.
37:40
Speaker 1: That'd be amazing. We got burned two weeks in a
37:43
Speaker 1: row by the Cowboys. But I have to take them
37:46
Speaker 1: and survivor here. We gotta take them here. What about
37:50
Speaker 1: the money line parlay. I'd be tempted on the Panthers here.
37:55
Speaker 1: I don't hate it. So I was gonna go with
37:57
Speaker 1: the Jets just because they're at home and I like that.
37:59
Speaker 1: It's a bigger no uber. I know the Bills, it's
38:01
Speaker 1: the divisional game. They need it, but that's even more reason.
38:04
Speaker 1: I just they're there, wheels are spinning right now. I
38:06
Speaker 1: just like the way the Jets have been playing, So
38:09
Speaker 1: I'll throw the Jets in there kind of We'll have
38:11
Speaker 1: Caroline and his so right now I have this is
38:14
Speaker 1: actually a good, big, big week for this one. If
38:16
Speaker 1: this hits, would be really nice play too. I got
38:18
Speaker 1: the Jets, got the Washington football team, I got the Saints,
38:22
Speaker 1: I got the Raiders, and I got the forty Niners.
38:25
Speaker 1: I don't hate. Like if you want to add the
38:28
Speaker 1: one in is the Seahawks. Just because Aaron Rodgers might
38:32
Speaker 1: have really bad lasting effects from COVID. As someone that
38:34
Speaker 1: had COVID, I still don't feel right mentally, like I
38:37
Speaker 1: still feel like there's a little things like that where
38:39
Speaker 1: it just it just sucks with your system. Um, so
38:42
Speaker 1: I don't know how he affected him, but we saw
38:44
Speaker 1: last year these other quarterbacks come back from it and
38:46
Speaker 1: they just weren't right. Like Lamar wasn't right for a
38:48
Speaker 1: couple of months. He he just was not in shape.
38:51
Speaker 1: Um because again it's a it's a virus that affect
38:53
Speaker 1: you your lungs. So we didn't really talk about the
38:56
Speaker 1: Seahawks because I kind of want to stay away from it.
38:58
Speaker 1: Just because Russell so got pins out of his hands
39:01
Speaker 1: not even seven days ago. It's weird. It's just a
39:05
Speaker 1: weird That's why that number is so weird to me,
39:06
Speaker 1: and the fact that it's come down the professionals obviously
39:08
Speaker 1: like the Seahawks this matchup. I just didn't really have
39:11
Speaker 1: a feel for it. I was on the Green Bay side.
39:13
Speaker 1: So if you throw the Seahawks money line in there,
39:16
Speaker 1: you want to take out on these big ones in
39:17
Speaker 1: Washington football team in the Jets, I get it. I
39:19
Speaker 1: just like playing these big numbers because of the value
39:21
Speaker 1: of the whole over the whole season. Yeah, guy, like
39:25
Speaker 1: I had pins in my thumb. Oh yeah, I had
39:28
Speaker 1: him taken out. I was I was balling the next day, really,
39:33
Speaker 1: I mean literally crying, not falling. What was that like though?
39:37
Speaker 1: Like did I feel normal? Like literally right afterwards? It's
39:41
Speaker 1: fucking weird. It's really weird. But look, they'll shoot him up,
39:46
Speaker 1: they'll wrap it, he'll play, He'll be fine. I'd rather
39:49
Speaker 1: been on Russell Wilson seven days removed from Pins, Aaron
39:53
Speaker 1: Rodgers off of COVID, having seen how challenging it can
39:57
Speaker 1: be for people to come back from that, having not
40:00
Speaker 1: act for two weeks. Yeah, that's I'm with you on that.
40:03
Speaker 1: But I've been burned by these situations all year, So
40:07
Speaker 1: I'll just I'll his pass. All right. We've done Survivor,
40:11
Speaker 1: We've done Money Line Parlay, We've narrowed down our picks.
40:14
Speaker 1: I will remind everybody watch Convinced Me Sunday mornings at
40:18
Speaker 1: Action Network HQ eleven a m. Eastern. We'll dig in
40:21
Speaker 1: a little deeper reminder for Scooch Roulette. I took Washington
40:24
Speaker 1: plus nine and a half. Simon took the Saints plus
40:27
Speaker 1: plus three. I'm kind of regretting my choice. Are big
40:32
Speaker 1: balls better? The week is the Jets plus thirteen? Our
40:34
Speaker 1: Simon says, it's Washington football team plus nine and a half.
40:37
Speaker 1: Our foxhold is Saints plus three. I am Shaddon Melman
40:40
Speaker 1: for Simon Hunter. This has been the favorites from the
40:43
Speaker 1: Volume Podcast Network. Download on Spotify, Apple podcast, wherever you
40:48
Speaker 1: get your podcast, rate, review, subscribe where We'll be back
40:50
Speaker 1: on Tuesday. I Love you