Latest / The Jake Wimberly Podcast / Joe Lisi and I break down this weeks monster week two in college football

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Joe Lisi and I break down this weeks monster week two in college football · The Jake Wimberly Podcast

• 0:03
  Speaker 1: Oh, getting ready, Jake. This is it, the calm before
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: the storm midweek. We got week two on the horizon
• 0:09
  Speaker 1: and separation Saturday. Outside the Ohio State-Texas game, a lot
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: of good action at 12 o'clock. We have the Oklahoma-Michigan game.
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: We have Arizona State A & M. I'm curious to
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: see how those games play out on Saturday afternoon. Ha, ha, ha, ha.
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: I think it's a little bit of both. I think
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: offensively it's a significant upgrade where Lane Kiffin has this
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: offense with Sam Leavitt. And you look at last year,
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: I mean, Garrett Nussmeier, whether he was hurt, Jake, or not, again,
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: we have mixed reviews on what the real situation was
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: when he came out in fall camp and played that
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: week one game. against Clemson. But the rushing attack with
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: Caden Dorman, Harlan Brayery, and Caleb Jackson last year was inconsistent.
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: You look at Jones, you look at the offensive line,
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: you look at Levitt's ability to put pressure on opposing defenses.
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: And in that game, I mean, if they put up
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: 644 yards of total offense each and every week in
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: the SEC, they're going to be very difficult. I told
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: you this big picture. I'm worried about mobile quarterbacks. I've
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: seen Blake Baker's defense over-pursue. They get burned by Diego Pavia,
• 1:30
  Speaker 1: Marcel Reed, Jalen Milrow, Chambliss, I mean, Lenora Sellers in
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: one game. So I would say pump the brakes. Offensively, good. Much,
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: much improved. But defensively, we'll see how good they are
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: September 19th in Oxford when they face the best quarterback,
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: I believe, in the conference in Trinidad Chambliss. yeah. mm hmm.
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: I mean, I lean to Missouri. They've won four straight
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: in the series. They won last year, I believe, by 11.
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: What was it, 51 to 41 or 53-41? They put
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: up a 50 spot. It was probably one of the
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: better games of Bo Pribula in that offense last year.
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: rolling against Kansas. But Austin Simmons, I think, could be
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: the guy. Meaning, like, he's an under-the-radar guy. I keep
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: telling everybody, last year they thought with Lane Kiffin, he
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: was going to be Heisman Trophy winner. He gets banged
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: up against Arkansas. And there goes Trinidad Chambliss, you know,
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: right to basically the college football semifinal. But outside of
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: last year's game, they haven't played each and every year,
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: as you know. So it's a rivalry game that always
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: scares me. I would lean to the speed of Missouri
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: and I like Austin Simmons, but it's not one of
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: my better picks. I mean, I lean Missouri. I like Drinkowitz.
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: I like the team overall. I like the defense. And
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: if they get that rushing attack going, it's going to
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: be very difficult. But again, rivalry games with five and
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: a half, they always scare me with that number. Right. Yeah,
• 4:08
  Speaker 1: I mean, I lean Oklahoma. Again, I don't love it.
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: This line was two and a half all offseason in
• 4:14
  Speaker 1: favor of Michigan. Then he comes out and they basically
• 4:17
  Speaker 1: lose that game to Western Michigan. Terrible call. They get
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: the Hail Mary. That's all well and good. But they
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: only threw for 170 yards in that matchup. And if
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: you look at last year's performances... As a freshman, every
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: time they didn't run the football, Jake, they lost games.
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: Their four losses last year, Michigan rushed for 132.9 points
• 4:39
  Speaker 1: per game. They basically lost those games by double digits.
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: They got blown out by USC and other teams when
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: they couldn't pound the rock. And what's the strength of Oklahoma?
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: They're going to force Underwood to potentially throw over the top,
• 4:51
  Speaker 1: stack the box, guard the edges, and see if he
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: can go downfield. And I talked about it with Coach
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: Bowden today. I said, you know, could they– Really, like
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: in third down situations, is Michigan going to roll out
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: the pocket? What if it's third and eight? You can't
• 5:08
  Speaker 1: allow him to stand back there and be blitzed because
• 5:11
  Speaker 1: he's not polished with the reads and progressions. And Coach
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: said he'd be more aggressive on first and second down.
• 5:18
  Speaker 1: I think that's the case. But you know what the
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: problem is, is Whittingham in these situations with Cam Rising
• 5:24
  Speaker 1: and Devin Dampierre, he's a very conservative coach. He's not
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: aggressive as you would think. It's a tough matchup because, again,
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: you go to the stats. 8-0 Michigan was every time
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: they rushed for over 200 yards, right? And they were dominant.
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: They won by basically 15, 16 points per game. They
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: ain't getting 200 on Oklahoma. And so that leads to
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: the factor of what do they need to score? They
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: lost that game in Norman last year, 24-13. And so
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: we'll chalk it up, first road start, non-conference game at
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: But they're going to bring it. And if we're talking
• 6:02
  Speaker 1: Mateer and we're talking Underwood, which guy can handle the pressure?
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: It's Mateer to me. And Mateer went into Knoxville. Mateer
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: went into Tuscaloosa. And this team pulled out two late
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: victories at the end of the year. Again, I like Oklahoma.
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: I don't love it, though. The line does scare me.
• 6:21
  Speaker 1: We've had such an overreaction of seven points that, to me,
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: it's Oklahoma and I lean to the under. But, again,
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: not one of my better picks for the weekend. Yeah. Yeah.
• 6:41
  Speaker 1: They have. And again, I was shocked by how close
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: that game was and Madsen having success early. And from
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: a physicality perspective, we saw interior line play for Boise
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: go toe to toe, even though they were undermanned. Again,
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: I didn't expect that. I did expect Tulsa to knock
• 6:58
  Speaker 1: off Oak State. And I said all offseason that that
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: line would be, if Tulsa knocked off Oak State, Oregon
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: in the offseason was 17 and a half point favorites.
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: I thought Oregon would blow out Boise. Tulsa would knock
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: off Oak State and we would get to 22 and
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: a half. While Oregon got pushed to the limit, it
• 7:17
  Speaker 1: didn't matter because the overreaction on Oak State is that
• 7:21
  Speaker 1: they stink. And that might be the case. But I
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: still like Oak State with the points. I do like them. Again,
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: you look at Oregon's secondary, three sophomores back there. Mestemaker
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: looked terrible. That offense looked terrible. But now at home,
• 7:36
  Speaker 1: against a team that they got abused with last year
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: in Eugene, I think there's a bounce-back spot. They don't
• 7:42
  Speaker 1: have to win it. Just keep it within three touchdowns.
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: I think they can do that. Yeah. I think they
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: could win it. How about that? I really like Arizona
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: State this weekend, and maybe I'm crazy. I picked Arizona
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: State as a sleeper in the Big 12. I think,
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: you know, two things. Cutter Boley comes on. I mean,
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: they really played him late into that game, 387, six touchdowns.
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: I think they needed that to go on this road game.
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: You want a quarterback– That's confident, even though obviously it's
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: an FCS opponent. You wanted to build that confidence going
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: into Kyle Field up against one of the best third
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: down defenses, the best last year in Texas A & M.
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: Here's the thing. I think it's just a complete overreaction.
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: SEC Big 12. And so we see the 14 and
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: a half point number. Now, if you look at. The
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: dominance by A & M, last year they were 7-1.
• 8:46
  Speaker 1: They won the FBS games by like 14.5 points per game.
• 8:50
  Speaker 1: So we're right on the number of what they did
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: against FBS guys. I take the non-conference games out because
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: it skews the stats. We're right on the number. I
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: think Arizona State's a lot better than people think. And
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: from a physicality perspective, they are built more like an
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: SEC team than they are a Big 12 team. They're physical.
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: I think they can make it a four-quarter game. And
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: as long as Boley's clean with the football, it wouldn't
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: shock me if we go into this fourth quarter, eight
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: minutes left, we're tied or we're a field goal or
• 9:23
  Speaker 1: a touchdown away. Yeah. Right. I think they can't. Here's
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: the thing. So the stats are skewed. Totally. I mean,
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: since Saban was there, right, they had won eight straight
• 9:46
  Speaker 1: against Kentucky. They had won the last four up until
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: 2023 when the last time they played, Jake, by 39.2
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: points per game. I mean, it wasn't even close. And
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: that was with better teams. You know, they had some
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: good teams ahead. Kentucky. Remember when Terry Wilson and all
• 10:03
  Speaker 1: those Kentucky teams, I mean, you know, when they knocked
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: off Florida in the swamp, they had some good talent
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: and they still got blown out by Nick Saban in Alabama.
• 10:11
  Speaker 1: Here's the problem. I believe, look, they rushed for 201
• 10:15
  Speaker 1: last week. Kentucky did on Youngstown State. They're going to
• 10:20
  Speaker 1: need a similar type of effectiveness on the ground. But
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: Boley looked clean with the foot, not Boley, excuse me.
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: Mincy looked clean with the football. And here's the other thing.
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: When you look at Bama's road performances under Kalen DeBoer,
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: straight up, they're 7-7 in his two years there. And
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: if you look at, like, last year's games, lose to
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: Florida State on the road, right, 13.5 points. They lose.
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: They beat Georgia. That was their claim to fame because
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: they were dogs in that matchup and knocked off Georgia
• 10:50
  Speaker 1: with the 33-game home winning streak. Push against Missouri. They
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: win that game by three. They get pushed to the
• 10:57
  Speaker 1: limit by both Auburn and South Carolina. They covered against
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: Auburn by a point and a half. They didn't cover
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: against South Carolina with 15 and a half, 16-point favorites.
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: They won it by seven points. The body of work
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: is like their margin of victory on the road under
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: Kayla DeBoer in true road performances last year. They were 5-1.
• 11:17
  Speaker 1: They won by six points per game. It's a conference
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: game with Keelan Russell. Look, again, I don't love this game,
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: but if you're asking me, Joe, I would take the
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: points with Kentucky. Yeah. Yeah. Right. Yeah, it is. I
• 11:48
  Speaker 1: just think BYU is too physical for them at home.
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: I think they dominate this game. I really do. I
• 11:54
  Speaker 1: think the seven, seven and a half, you're going to
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: have a lot of people taking Noah Fafita in Arizona. And,
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: you know, last year, Brett Brennan did a fantastic job.
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: They were a nine and five football team. I think
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: they're outmanned in Pro Bowl. I really do. I think
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: LJ Morton, the rushing attack, get going. I think they dominate.
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: I think BYU wins this game by 14 or more,
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: and it's not even close. Yep. Yeah, again, which team
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: runs the football better? Is it Miss State or is
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: it Minnesota? I like Darius Taylor. I think Minnesota to me, Jake,
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: and we talked about this, is much more physical. They're
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: more blue-collar than Miss State, and that's not a knock
• 12:45
  Speaker 1: on the Bulldogs. It's just statistically they lost 8-9 down
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: the stretch, right? They lost those games by 14.2 points
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: per game. Now, last year they allowed 188 yards on
• 12:56
  Speaker 1: the ground. A lot of that was in conference play,
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: but Minnesota has a heavy offensive line. I think Drake
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: Lindsey is one of the up-and-comers in the Big Ten.
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: You'll hear about him more as the season progresses. And
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: Fleck versus Jeff Levy, I think Fleck's the more consistent
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: coach playing at home. Pick him, I think Minnesota wins
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: it by a field goal or more. Sure. Anytime. Yeah. Yeah.
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: One of my better picks, I like G-Tech. Now, here's
• 13:38
  Speaker 1: the thing. Faison, Brandon, on the road, and Bobby Dodd, okay,
• 13:42
  Speaker 1: maybe not the toughest environments, maybe not even comparable to
• 13:46
  Speaker 1: anything you've seen in the SEC or will see, but
• 13:49
  Speaker 1: it's still a tough place to play. I know that
• 13:52
  Speaker 1: they got abused by Colorado, a smaller, quicker type of team,
• 13:57
  Speaker 1: and typically that's what Heupel might run with this offensive attack.
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: Faison was 226-3 and nothing. you know, clean with the
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: football against Furman. But here's the thing. When you look
• 14:08
  Speaker 1: at Brent Key in his career, ATS, as an underdog,
• 14:12
  Speaker 1: he's 18-7, okay? So, again, as an underdog, he steps
• 14:16
  Speaker 1: up in his career at home in Bobby Dodd against
• 14:19
  Speaker 1: the number. As a dog, he's 6-1. I think this
• 14:23
  Speaker 1: is a huge bounce-back spot for G-Tech. They got abused
• 14:26
  Speaker 1: in a national primetime game. They wore down. The defense
• 14:30
  Speaker 1: wasn't physical. And I think Alberto Mendoza, to me, played fantastic.
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: I mean, you know, he's not the same runner, obviously,
• 14:38
  Speaker 1: as Haynes King, but he has zip on the football.
• 14:41
  Speaker 1: I think they're going to be in this game. Again, Jake,
• 14:44
  Speaker 1: don't be shocked if they win it outright. Yeah. Yeah.
• 15:07
  Speaker 1: I think we get over the total. I think this
• 15:09
  Speaker 1: could be where saying and, and, and arch eat a little,
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: but I don't, again, I don't see arching and Texas
• 15:16
  Speaker 1: coming out. Now, Cam Coleman and Ryan Wingo broke out.
• 15:19
  Speaker 1: I was on Texas. They late 29 and a half again,
• 15:23
  Speaker 1: very inexperienced in the secondary. The Texas state had two
• 15:27
  Speaker 1: players from Liberty that transferred in difficult matchup when you're
• 15:30
  Speaker 1: going up against those cats, right? That could just fly
• 15:33
  Speaker 1: in Wingo and Coleman, but again, You know, what do
• 15:36
  Speaker 1: you have to do on the road? You have to
• 15:37
  Speaker 1: run the football and win the turnover battle. And that's
• 15:40
  Speaker 1: where I give the edge to Ohio State. I like
• 15:42
  Speaker 1: Bo Jackson. I like the offensive line. And in these games,
• 15:46
  Speaker 1: and you and I have talked about them, with Texas
• 15:48
  Speaker 1: in a step-up spot, they get manhandled in the interior.
• 15:52
  Speaker 1: They can never run the football consistently. In three games
• 15:55
  Speaker 1: against the Bulldogs, right, SEC Championship, two years ago, Trevor
• 15:59
  Speaker 1: Etienne is still running. And then, obviously, last year in Athens,
• 16:04
  Speaker 1: I worry about that. And again, I'm not buying into
• 16:06
  Speaker 1: the hype. I'm looking at the X's and O's, which
• 16:09
  Speaker 1: is the more physical team in the interior. I still
• 16:11
  Speaker 1: think it's Ohio state. You still have the best player. Potentially.
• 16:14
  Speaker 1: You want to give the edge Coleman and Jeremiah Smith,
• 16:17
  Speaker 1: body of work, Jeremiah Smith over Coleman. And you know what?
• 16:21
  Speaker 1: Let everybody talk about arch because I think there's more
• 16:24
  Speaker 1: pressure on arch and say, and still completed 73% of
• 16:27
  Speaker 1: his passes. I will just say this. If Texas is
• 16:31
  Speaker 1: going to win imperative that they run the football. I mean,
• 16:34
  Speaker 1: Ohio State held Ball State under 100 yards. They held
• 16:38
  Speaker 1: 10 opponents last year under 100. Nine FBS wins by 28.4
• 16:42
  Speaker 1: points per game. The games that Ohio State struggled in
• 16:47
  Speaker 1: or where they lost, they got beat up by Miami,
• 16:49
  Speaker 1: they got beat up by Indiana, and there was success
• 16:52
  Speaker 1: on the ground. If you can't run it against Ohio State,
• 16:55
  Speaker 1: third and long, you're going to get killed by Patricia's defense.
• 16:59
  Speaker 1: I like Ohio State. Again, seven points. I think they
• 17:02
  Speaker 1: win it by a good game, but I like the Buckeyes.
• 17:05
  Speaker 1: I can't go against them in this spot. Yeah. A
• 17:15
  Speaker 1: big one. And, you know, you see Danny Connell and
• 17:18
  Speaker 1: tweet now, this is great. And I told Coach, you know,
• 17:20
  Speaker 1: what is Norvell doing? Look, I understand you want to
• 17:24
  Speaker 1: run the football. I get that. But, When you look
• 17:27
  Speaker 1: at the weakness of SMU last year, they allowed 283
• 17:31
  Speaker 1: passing yards per game. In their four losses, Jake, they
• 17:35
  Speaker 1: allowed 341 through the air and allowed 14 touchdowns, two interceptions.
• 17:40
  Speaker 1: You got a couple of good runs. The times that
• 17:43
  Speaker 1: you allowed Ashton Daniels to cook down the field, you
• 17:47
  Speaker 1: had success. Why he was playing it, it's the identity
• 17:53
  Speaker 1: of a coach that has got alligator arms He's afraid
• 17:56
  Speaker 1: to take risks. He wants to play it close to
• 17:59
  Speaker 1: the vest. And instead of winning that game, let's say
• 18:02
  Speaker 1: 40 to 20, he loses it 27-24 because he wanted
• 18:06
  Speaker 1: to run the football, play for field goals and not touchdowns.
• 18:09
  Speaker 1: And again... You can't win in today's college football without
• 18:13
  Speaker 1: an aggressive offense. The only way you could do that
• 18:16
  Speaker 1: is if you have a top five defense and number
• 18:19
  Speaker 1: one in turnover margin like Indiana was last year. And
• 18:22
  Speaker 1: they had the best third down conversion rate from an
• 18:25
  Speaker 1: offensive perspective. They didn't convert. What are they, three of
• 18:28
  Speaker 1: 13 on third down conversions? You're not going to win.
• 18:31
  Speaker 1: You're not going to win in today's game like that. Yeah, absolutely.
• 18:44
  Speaker 1: Love the show, Jake. Great luck. Wish you the best
• 18:46
  Speaker 1: and love talking ball with you.