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Best Bets NFL Conference Championships · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:08
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: six five.
• 0:13
  Speaker 2: We are part of the Action Network.
• 0:16
  Speaker 1: I am Chad Milman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network.
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: Today is our NFL Conference Championship Round.
• 0:24
  Speaker 2: Best Bets episode.
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: This is the episode where we will get feedback from
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: the wise guys who listen to the show. We will
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: build our money line Round Robin. We will narrow down
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: our favorite picks across the Championship weekend of games. Because,
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: as our old pal Colin Coward likes to say, there's
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: a sea of money out there. If you want to
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: follow along with our official bets, you can check them
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: out in the award winning Action app by following the
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: Favorites Podcast. Let's bring in my co host, my companion,
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: Mi Compadra, my BFF, Professional Better, Simon Hunter HEADO, Sonyman.
• 1:06
  Speaker 3: How's it going, Chad Brother.
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: We're gonna go through this podcast. We're going to talk
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: about these two games. I think our opinions are solidifying.
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: I'm curious to get sharp calls. We're gonna do it
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: a little differently this week. I want you to do
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: a sharp call when we do each game. But it
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: doesn't really matter because we all know that.
• 1:23
  Speaker 2: The NFL is scripted.
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: I think it's just it's a fact, right, we all
• 1:28
  Speaker 1: believe it at this point. So the matchup and the
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: winner has already been set. And let me explain. Just yesterday,
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: Avery Yang, one of our talented editors and writers on
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: the news desk here at Action Network, posted a story
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: about a tweet from the NFL memes account, the very
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: popular NFL memes account, and that account noticed how the
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: logos the colors for the logos of the past two
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: Super Bowls prior to this one match the teams that
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: played in those Super Bowls.
• 2:06
  Speaker 2: No joke.
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: The Rams Bengals super Bowl two years ago, it was
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: orange and yellow when they played. Last year, red and green,
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: Low and behold the Chiefs and Eagles make it. This
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: year it is purple and red. We can expect a
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: Niners Ravens Super Bowl. Also, the bottom collar in the
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: two toned logo has matched the winning team this year.
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: The bottom color is purple.
• 2:57
  Speaker 3: That's what you're working with.
• 2:59
  Speaker 2: Yeah, so we know the Ravens are going to win
• 3:01
  Speaker 2: the Super Bowl.
• 3:04
  Speaker 3: I hope you're right.
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: It's in the script, brother, It's all been written. As
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: a reminder. The Favorite podcast is presented by bet three
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  Speaker 1: be twenty one or older and present in Colorado, Iowa, Louisiana,
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  Speaker 1: Gambling problem call one eight hundred gambler or one eight
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  Speaker 1: If you're finding it hard to choose a sign in
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  Speaker 1: these games, you are not alone. Evan Abrams, the world
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: famous Evan Abrams. This is the tightest conference. Let us
• 4:07
  Speaker 1: know that this is the tightest conference championship market since
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: twenty ten, and the first time in the past twenty
• 4:14
  Speaker 1: years neither side in the game has received fifty five
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: percent or more of spread tickets. So it is a
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: hard one. We are seeing the line solidify. Like I said,
• 4:29
  Speaker 1: we're doing things a little differently today. We're gonna make
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: SUREARP calls part of the Championship Game's breakdowns. As a reminder,
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: catch every episode of the Favorites live on YouTube. So
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: for those enjoying on YouTube, don't forget to give us
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: a like and subscribe to the Action Network you tube page.
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: I don't think we made a clear last week Simon,
• 4:49
  Speaker 1: that your Simon says is the Ravens. My exact decision
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: was the Niners. So I don't know that we'll do
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: a foxhol this week. We will do a bit balls.
• 5:00
  Speaker 2: I'm fine if we're doubling up here. But let's start with.
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: Kansas City at Baltimore. Baltimore was a three point three
• 5:07
  Speaker 1: and a half point favorite, Simon.
• 5:09
  Speaker 2: Let's start with shout calls.
• 5:15
  Speaker 3: Hello, who's there?
• 5:16
  Speaker 4: I'm talking Rain, Rain, telephone rang, somebody's saying maybe one
• 5:22
  Speaker 4: should get the win.
• 5:24
  Speaker 3: Yeah, no surprise on anyone. I feel like people kind
• 5:26
  Speaker 3: of understood Sunday night. The Pros are gonna like the Ravens,
• 5:30
  Speaker 3: and that's how it's played out right. The money has
• 5:33
  Speaker 3: come in on the Ravens, and a couple of books
• 5:36
  Speaker 3: have moved a plus four now on this Kansas City
• 5:39
  Speaker 3: Chiefs team, and it just makes sense right the pros.
• 5:42
  Speaker 3: I talked to the ones that took the Chiefs. They
• 5:46
  Speaker 3: basically know they had a house some money right now
• 5:48
  Speaker 3: because they won last week, and their view of it was,
• 5:51
  Speaker 3: I'll just wait and let this number keep going up.
• 5:54
  Speaker 3: And I talked to plenty of guys who have grabbed
• 5:56
  Speaker 3: the four. Now. I saw the four come back down,
• 6:00
  Speaker 3: and now that it's gone back up again, it makes
• 6:02
  Speaker 3: me feel a little confident where it's like, Okay, more
• 6:04
  Speaker 3: professionals are on the three and a half with this
• 6:06
  Speaker 3: Ravens team than there are on the Chiefs, and that's
• 6:09
  Speaker 3: simply by just talking to book makers and watching the numbers.
• 6:12
  Speaker 3: Like the fact that you know when you go to
• 6:16
  Speaker 3: bed if there's a four and you wake up the
• 6:18
  Speaker 3: next morning there's still a four, you don't realize how
• 6:21
  Speaker 3: much action went on last night where that number is
• 6:23
  Speaker 3: probably bouncing around all night, just because people are really
• 6:27
  Speaker 3: split on these games, like you said, but it does
• 6:30
  Speaker 3: feel like it's not as split as you would believe,
• 6:35
  Speaker 3: where the professionals for the most part that I've talked
• 6:37
  Speaker 3: to they like the Ravens, And it feels like the
• 6:40
  Speaker 3: public for the most part likes the Chiefs, right, they're
• 6:43
  Speaker 3: of the same view of well, plenty of pro said
• 6:46
  Speaker 3: last week, which is you're getting mahomes as a dog,
• 6:49
  Speaker 3: you take them to the spot. I mean, I haven't
• 6:50
  Speaker 3: already read us all the trends like this is a
• 6:52
  Speaker 3: very profitable spot to take them. So it's interesting where
• 6:56
  Speaker 3: it's split in public perception. But I'd say professionally the
• 7:00
  Speaker 3: pros of the Ravens like, if if you got the three,
• 7:04
  Speaker 3: you're feeling pretty good right now, especially when you're seeing
• 7:06
  Speaker 3: a couple of foursts pop up. But me and you
• 7:09
  Speaker 3: joke all the time, Chad, closing line value is usually
• 7:12
  Speaker 3: loser talk. Me and you had great closing line value
• 7:15
  Speaker 3: last week on Tampa plus seven. A lot of good
• 7:18
  Speaker 3: that Dida. So that's just how it is. Where it's like,
• 7:22
  Speaker 3: if you got the three on the Ravens, you're feeling
• 7:24
  Speaker 3: pretty damn good. The three and a half doesn't scare
• 7:27
  Speaker 3: me as much I thought I would. It's really you know,
• 7:33
  Speaker 3: it really is. If you're a believing the believer in
• 7:36
  Speaker 3: the Chiefs, you might be able to get four and
• 7:38
  Speaker 3: a half by game time. Chad. Like the way this
• 7:41
  Speaker 3: number feels it gets trending. It I feel like it
• 7:42
  Speaker 3: will just keep going up just because you know, the
• 7:46
  Speaker 3: Ravens are getting guys back. Like I've been talking this week,
• 7:49
  Speaker 3: they are getting healthier technically at the right time. Where
• 7:54
  Speaker 3: Kansas City we still don't know. A couple of other
• 7:56
  Speaker 3: guys are banged up. We don't We're still not sure
• 7:58
  Speaker 3: how one hundred percent healthy they're going to be. So
• 8:01
  Speaker 3: the matchup we already know we talked about last show.
• 8:06
  Speaker 3: I really do favorite this Baltimore defense.
• 8:10
  Speaker 1: Now.
• 8:10
  Speaker 3: The question was talking a lot of other professionals, It's like,
• 8:13
  Speaker 3: do you really trust Lamar in this spot over my homes?
• 8:17
  Speaker 3: And it's like, I don't really know if I have
• 8:19
  Speaker 3: to really play it that way right, Like Lamar in
• 8:21
  Speaker 3: that second half I talked about, it feels like you
• 8:23
  Speaker 3: kind of found something there, right, this type of confidence
• 8:26
  Speaker 3: where it's like, oh, you can use your legs whenever
• 8:29
  Speaker 3: you want, Lamar, like you don't have to force the
• 8:31
  Speaker 3: throws in there, just play smart. And I mean again,
• 8:34
  Speaker 3: they scored three touchdowns last game. They were just on
• 8:37
  Speaker 3: a total role total control that second half, and the
• 8:40
  Speaker 3: more I go through the Chiefs defense on film, no
• 8:43
  Speaker 3: doubt was impressed with what they've done this season, how
• 8:45
  Speaker 3: good they played, But me and you can't get over
• 8:48
  Speaker 3: the fact they are so weak against the run. Even
• 8:51
  Speaker 3: when they make adjustments in second halfs against teams, teams
• 8:54
  Speaker 3: are still able to move the ball. It just seems
• 8:57
  Speaker 3: like most teams get away from it right like we
• 8:59
  Speaker 3: saw the Josh Allen eventually get forced out to pass
• 9:01
  Speaker 3: the ball because for some reason, once they get down
• 9:04
  Speaker 3: a couple of points to Mahomes, they really do panic.
• 9:06
  Speaker 3: And I don't really see the Ravens changing that. Like
• 9:08
  Speaker 3: They've been consistent all season. The only game when I
• 9:12
  Speaker 3: went through and look through the film that they really
• 9:14
  Speaker 3: panicked and got away from the run was against that
• 9:17
  Speaker 3: Colts team earlier in the year where I believe they
• 9:21
  Speaker 3: might have been a nine point favorite or something crazy
• 9:23
  Speaker 3: like that against Minshew, and Minshew pulled the upset off.
• 9:27
  Speaker 3: That was really early in the season. You watch as
• 9:30
  Speaker 3: the season went along, they never really hit that panic
• 9:32
  Speaker 3: mode again, where even in games that are really close
• 9:34
  Speaker 3: and tight, they stay true to themselves and they still
• 9:37
  Speaker 3: ran the ball. So I'm still trying to stay dug
• 9:41
  Speaker 3: in here. I'm fading Mahomes, but it's definitely I definitely
• 9:44
  Speaker 3: haven't bet as much I thought I was gonna have
• 9:46
  Speaker 3: a bet at this point where it's like I thought
• 9:48
  Speaker 3: I wasn't really gonna hammer this Ravens team. And it
• 9:50
  Speaker 3: is the one the Mahomes effect where it's like it's
• 9:54
  Speaker 3: an uneasy feeling Chad betting against betting against him, especially
• 9:57
  Speaker 3: where Evan gave us that stat he's been down seven
• 10:01
  Speaker 3: plus points in the playoffs nine times or yeah or no?
• 10:05
  Speaker 3: Is it ten times? Evan? And he's eight and two
• 10:08
  Speaker 3: straight up. The only two losses were against Tom Brady.
• 10:12
  Speaker 3: It's just like we never We've never seen anything like
• 10:15
  Speaker 3: it yet. So that's that's the scary part about get
• 10:17
  Speaker 3: betting against them.
• 10:19
  Speaker 2: So a couple things.
• 10:20
  Speaker 1: Number One, I'm calling it now even though it was
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: basically Simon says, it's also going to.
• 10:25
  Speaker 2: Be big balls better the week.
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: Baltimore Ravens and I've been thinking about this so much.
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: This is the ultimate head versus heart debate.
• 10:40
  Speaker 3: Like, yeah, it's that meme. You ever see that meme
• 10:43
  Speaker 3: with the wife or their girlfriends, like in the bed
• 10:45
  Speaker 3: next to the husband, He's like, wonder what he's thinking about.
• 10:47
  Speaker 3: It really is I just cannot stop thinking about this
• 10:49
  Speaker 3: Ravens Chiefs game, like it's just all week, It's all
• 10:52
  Speaker 3: I can think about.
• 10:53
  Speaker 1: I'm not gonna lie to you. I woke up this
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: morning and I'm like, I'm no, I'm going to spend
• 10:58
  Speaker 1: the next two hours doing even more research on this game.
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: And I was so excited about it. And the more
• 11:08
  Speaker 1: research I did, the more it points to the Ravens
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: as the right side here the most important matchup in
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: the game. It comes down to how Baltimore's defense handles
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: the middle of the field. That goes from pressure up
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: the middle against Mahomes, because we know that the scariest
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: thing embedding is Mahomes stepping up into the pocket and
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: you don't know where that ball is going to go.
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: Yet you're seeing Mahomes. You can't see the rest of
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: the field on the TV screen. You don't know what's
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: going to happen, and it is so frightening. So their
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: ability to rush from the middle of the line of
• 11:46
  Speaker 1: scrimmage and their ability to defend the middle of the
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: field because the Chiefs are just not an explosive team
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: right and what we saw them do the past two
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: weeks I think is screwing with people's heads because of
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: what they did against Miami and what they did against
• 12:01
  Speaker 1: the Bills when we knew the Bills weren't going to
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: be able to defend the middle of the field. And
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: this Ravens defense is honestly historically great. So is the Niners.
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: By the way, we're going to get to that, but
• 12:16
  Speaker 1: these are two of the best defenses historically in terms
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: of weighted DVOA. I know you don't love DVOA, but
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: a lot of people do so weighted DVOA measuring their
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: success and the schedules they've played, as they've played later
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: in the year, so you're measuring it against real teams
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: strengths and weaknesses as we get later into the year,
• 12:39
  Speaker 1: and who they really are. These are two top ten teams.
• 12:42
  Speaker 1: Ravens are number one and since nineteen eighty and Niners
• 12:45
  Speaker 1: are number eight. So these defenses are great and the
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: Chiefs are missing players right Joe Toney, he's their guard,
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: number one ranked passer past blocker according to Pro Football Focus.
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: He's likely not to play. Tray Smith, other guard, didn't
• 13:06
  Speaker 1: practice on Wednesday because of illness. Isaiah Pacheco didn't practice
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: because of his ankle and toe injuries. So like there's
• 13:17
  Speaker 1: issues in all the places where the Chiefs can't have issues.
• 13:23
  Speaker 3: Yeah, and again going back to how it's just a
• 13:26
  Speaker 3: lot of people arguing back and forth this week professionalized,
• 13:29
  Speaker 3: it's just the view is Mahomes in these big moments.
• 13:34
  Speaker 3: It's kind of like the Brady factor where you know,
• 13:38
  Speaker 3: I told you when it came to doing a model
• 13:40
  Speaker 3: and making a number for Brady games, I basically had
• 13:43
  Speaker 3: to throw it out because the model just could not
• 13:46
  Speaker 3: stop underrating Brady and the effect he has on games.
• 13:49
  Speaker 3: And you know, I've talked to plenty of people that speak,
• 13:51
  Speaker 3: but that's their argument for my homes or just like,
• 13:54
  Speaker 3: how can you model his game out when it's just
• 13:56
  Speaker 3: like he breaks all the models, like he wins in
• 13:58
  Speaker 3: games and positions he should not be winning in with
• 14:01
  Speaker 3: talentless teams, right Like you can say, well, their team
• 14:04
  Speaker 3: has talent this year Travis Kelsey's I can't. It's weird
• 14:08
  Speaker 3: because we're about the same age, but he's old in
• 14:10
  Speaker 3: football years, Like this man is clearly over the hill.
• 14:13
  Speaker 3: We've seen this season between the drops and it's not
• 14:17
  Speaker 3: like he breaks away right on these long catches, he
• 14:19
  Speaker 3: catches it and it just falls down for the most part.
• 14:21
  Speaker 3: Maybe we'll break a tackle or two, but they're clearly
• 14:23
  Speaker 3: a different offense. And what Mahomes has done is like
• 14:26
  Speaker 3: why he's in the conversation for the one of the
• 14:29
  Speaker 3: best quarterbacks we've ever seen. It's it's why people say
• 14:31
  Speaker 3: you and if you're retired tomorrow, would he be a
• 14:33
  Speaker 3: first Ball Hall of Famer. It's like, oh yeah, why
• 14:36
  Speaker 3: wouldn't he be. It's like what he's done. Sin's entered
• 14:39
  Speaker 3: the league, winning the division every year, making it to
• 14:42
  Speaker 3: multiple AFC Championship games, have two Super Bowls. It's like
• 14:45
  Speaker 3: he doesn't need to do anymore. We already know what
• 14:47
  Speaker 3: the deal is, Mahomes. But like you said, I just
• 14:51
  Speaker 3: believe in the Ravens defense. And it's like all I
• 14:54
  Speaker 3: can do this week, Like we said, we you know,
• 14:56
  Speaker 3: I'm taking phone calls and do all this other stuff. Well,
• 14:58
  Speaker 3: there's only two games. You really do die into the film,
• 15:00
  Speaker 3: you really want to dive into and break it down.
• 15:02
  Speaker 3: And I know a lot of people when they dive
• 15:04
  Speaker 3: into film, they're like, well, only like going a month
• 15:07
  Speaker 3: or a month and a half back when I'm finding
• 15:09
  Speaker 3: a team's offense just because they've changed so much from
• 15:12
  Speaker 3: just say, two months ago, And that is definitely true
• 15:15
  Speaker 3: watching this Chiefs team, like how much better they are
• 15:18
  Speaker 3: now than they were two months ago, where what you
• 15:22
  Speaker 3: just said though could hold true, which again I don't
• 15:23
  Speaker 3: want to backtrick too much, but it's like they just
• 15:25
  Speaker 3: played Miami and the Bills, two defenses that had major injuries.
• 15:29
  Speaker 3: They're not getting that with the Ravens. So it was
• 15:30
  Speaker 3: just interesting. I went through the Chiefs film. I do
• 15:33
  Speaker 3: see what they're doing and why it's working right now,
• 15:36
  Speaker 3: but I can see so many ways the Ravens can counter,
• 15:39
  Speaker 3: Like the Ravens really do have the pieces on defense
• 15:42
  Speaker 3: to counter what they want to do offensively, and we
• 15:45
  Speaker 3: use it as a as a you know, I talked
• 15:48
  Speaker 3: about last show where it's like a reasoning of people
• 15:51
  Speaker 3: to go back and watch that forty nine Ers game
• 15:53
  Speaker 3: against the Ravens. It's like they can do the exact
• 15:55
  Speaker 3: same thing against this forty nine ers, against this Kansas
• 15:58
  Speaker 3: City team they get they did against the forty nine Ers.
• 16:01
  Speaker 3: The Ravens can put a safety down onto their best player,
• 16:05
  Speaker 3: like I mean, Kettle's not the best player of the Fortyniners,
• 16:07
  Speaker 3: but kicking him away was a big deal, right. They
• 16:10
  Speaker 3: really the way the forty Niners did it, I mean
• 16:13
  Speaker 3: the Ravens did it was they kept showing pretty different
• 16:15
  Speaker 3: looks pre snap. Now against you know Mahomes, that's not
• 16:20
  Speaker 3: gonna work, right, cheat, I think we both can agree
• 16:23
  Speaker 3: trying to disguise coverage against Mahomes doesn't work. And the
• 16:25
  Speaker 3: worst thing you can do against Mahomes is blitz them.
• 16:27
  Speaker 3: If you blitz Mahomes, he'll burn you. And when I
• 16:31
  Speaker 3: went back and watched this Ravens footage, they're so smart
• 16:34
  Speaker 3: with their blitz packages. Look, they really don't force them.
• 16:37
  Speaker 3: You never know who's gonna actually be the blitzer. Right,
• 16:39
  Speaker 3: They'll have seven guys in the line and none of
• 16:43
  Speaker 3: them will even be the blitzer.
• 16:44
  Speaker 4: Right.
• 16:44
  Speaker 3: The linebackers actually drop back and they'll have a random
• 16:46
  Speaker 3: cornerbacker safety drop in and be the blitzer. So I'm
• 16:49
  Speaker 3: just the more I break down the film on the
• 16:51
  Speaker 3: Ravens defense, I'm not worried about it. And obviously we
• 16:55
  Speaker 3: talked offensively. I just I do think the advantage is
• 16:57
  Speaker 3: towards this Ravens team. So the only reason this number
• 17:01
  Speaker 3: isn't seven, which I would think most people thought it
• 17:04
  Speaker 3: could be. It's because of Mahomes, Like Mahome's usually worth
• 17:07
  Speaker 3: three or four points. Yeah, to whatever talent they're lacking
• 17:10
  Speaker 3: compared to the Ravens he makes up for. So yeah,
• 17:14
  Speaker 3: Like to me, I told you try, I made this
• 17:16
  Speaker 3: number four when it was three. It's gone to three
• 17:19
  Speaker 3: and a half. Now a couple of books are touching four.
• 17:21
  Speaker 3: People are like, well, would you take the Chiefs now
• 17:23
  Speaker 3: at four four and a half. I wouldn't fault you for,
• 17:26
  Speaker 3: but I wouldn't personally like, I still think the Ravens
• 17:29
  Speaker 3: are the player, so totally. Again, when people talk about
• 17:32
  Speaker 3: the model, and I already told you it's like, I'm
• 17:35
  Speaker 3: probably awful little bit on this Mahomes number, But am
• 17:38
  Speaker 3: I really off by that much? When I talked about
• 17:41
  Speaker 3: it being four, and it's moved all the way from
• 17:42
  Speaker 3: three up to four, it's like the books agree with it.
• 17:45
  Speaker 3: So as much as I like to shoot on my
• 17:47
  Speaker 3: own model here in the playoffs, it's like, at least
• 17:50
  Speaker 3: I got this number right where I took the three
• 17:52
  Speaker 3: in it open nervously, I mean, you talk Sunday night.
• 17:55
  Speaker 3: I wasn't too excited to take it, but it felt
• 17:57
  Speaker 3: like it was a bad number. The fact that it's
• 17:59
  Speaker 3: got up to four, we're now to a couple of books,
• 18:01
  Speaker 3: it makes you feel good, right. I talked a couple
• 18:03
  Speaker 3: pro especially a couple of pros on the desert in Vegas,
• 18:05
  Speaker 3: where it's like they were the first couple of books
• 18:07
  Speaker 3: to go to four, Like a lot of Jersey books
• 18:09
  Speaker 3: didn't have four right away, but they did out in Vegas,
• 18:12
  Speaker 3: which again, that's professional money coming in early on the
• 18:14
  Speaker 3: Shravens team. So not shocked to see the professionals on
• 18:18
  Speaker 3: this side. I am shocked to see how split it
• 18:21
  Speaker 3: is between public perception.
• 18:23
  Speaker 2: Raybon had a good idea.
• 18:25
  Speaker 1: I listened to him and Stucky on their podcast This
• 18:29
  Speaker 1: Morning Action Network piblic check it out. He took the
• 18:34
  Speaker 1: Ravens minus two and a half in the first half,
• 18:37
  Speaker 1: and I know you always call that the cowards play,
• 18:40
  Speaker 1: but we like to lean on that sometimes.
• 18:43
  Speaker 2: I actually love that play.
• 18:45
  Speaker 1: I bet it at two and a half because it
• 18:48
  Speaker 1: takes sort of the Mahomes end of game backdoor factor
• 18:53
  Speaker 1: out of the equation. And of course it's cowardly, but
• 18:58
  Speaker 1: sometimes I just want to win a bet and like
• 19:01
  Speaker 1: the Ravens have been dominant in the first half, dominant
• 19:04
  Speaker 1: in Lamar's career, dominant in Harbaugh's career, dominant this season.
• 19:09
  Speaker 1: Raybound had this stat thirteen and four this year in
• 19:12
  Speaker 1: first halves and they didn't lose two.
• 19:15
  Speaker 2: They didn't lose.
• 19:16
  Speaker 1: Against the spread two first halves in a row, so
• 19:19
  Speaker 1: they did last week. In last week they lost it
• 19:23
  Speaker 1: because they had a part return for a touchdown. So
• 19:26
  Speaker 1: I will be playing the first half. I still have
• 19:29
  Speaker 1: not bet on the Ravens side for this game.
• 19:34
  Speaker 3: Well interesting, I think I saw staff from Evan that
• 19:38
  Speaker 3: Lamore struggles in the first quarter, right of I don't
• 19:42
  Speaker 3: know why I bet Houston first quarter and almost positives
• 19:45
  Speaker 3: from reading an Evan article where it's like Lamar for
• 19:48
  Speaker 3: some reason, the first quarter is not cover and I'm
• 19:51
  Speaker 3: almost positive I covered. I think I think the number
• 19:53
  Speaker 3: was three or three and a half and it did cover.
• 19:57
  Speaker 3: But yeah, that's that's interesting. Lamar in the first half.
• 20:01
  Speaker 3: That could be a sneaky play if people want to
• 20:03
  Speaker 3: take it to and a half. We know the Chiefs
• 20:06
  Speaker 3: like the kick. They like to defer the second half,
• 20:09
  Speaker 3: so again that's another advantage if you want to bet
• 20:10
  Speaker 3: the first half where it's like and already obviously boost
• 20:13
  Speaker 3: up that Ravens team to take first half. But yeah,
• 20:18
  Speaker 3: I get why you're scary. Chat Like, it's scary taking
• 20:21
  Speaker 3: the three and a half minus three and a half
• 20:23
  Speaker 3: against mahomes. But that's why we got to play these spots.
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  Speaker 1: to get fifty percent off. All right, A Detroit at
• 21:45
  Speaker 1: San Francisco, San Francisco minus savn Look, I guess I'm
• 21:48
  Speaker 1: making this my exact decision. I wasn't clear about it
• 21:51
  Speaker 1: the other day. I hate that you and I are
• 21:54
  Speaker 1: not aligned on this. I hate that it hasn't gone
• 21:57
  Speaker 1: back to six and a half. Tickets are split money
• 22:02
  Speaker 1: on San Francisco. I think it's trending towards San Francisco
• 22:05
  Speaker 1: minus seven and a half. Debo is the X factor here,
• 22:09
  Speaker 1: and I think debo is why a lot of people
• 22:13
  Speaker 1: probably can't get on the Niners. I am betting, literally
• 22:18
  Speaker 1: that he's gonna play. He was fifty to fifty, still
• 22:21
  Speaker 1: fifty to fifty. Did not practice on Wednesday. Shanahan said
• 22:25
  Speaker 1: his shoulder still hurts. Simon with that setup, Let's do
• 22:32
  Speaker 1: some check calls.
• 22:34
  Speaker 3: Somebody said, maybe you do, man bros. Are Wendy Chad
• 22:38
  Speaker 3: the love the point Niners? Oh right, yeah?
• 22:42
  Speaker 1: Depressingly, Hey, oh my god, Thank god you and I
• 22:46
  Speaker 1: did not discuss that. I was so nervous about it,
• 22:49
  Speaker 1: and I keep like, I probably feel about this the
• 22:52
  Speaker 1: way you feel about the Ravens, Like I keep researching
• 22:55
  Speaker 1: this game and I know Debo is the X factor
• 22:58
  Speaker 1: for me.
• 22:58
  Speaker 2: But the are just a great team and like the
• 23:03
  Speaker 2: Lions are not. So I'm glad to hear this.
• 23:08
  Speaker 3: No, you and them, You guys, none of you guys
• 23:10
  Speaker 3: have hearts. That's the issue here. How do you not
• 23:12
  Speaker 3: want to take the Lions?
• 23:13
  Speaker 2: This is like what said, I'm a scientologist.
• 23:16
  Speaker 3: Yeah it's true. I'm probably I'm probably drinking too much
• 23:20
  Speaker 3: of the kool aid and loving the story too much.
• 23:22
  Speaker 3: Where I'm just I'm just so enamored with this Lions team.
• 23:25
  Speaker 3: And oh man, I've been getting abused over these last
• 23:29
  Speaker 3: twenty four hours. The biggest, the biggest abuse that I'm
• 23:31
  Speaker 3: taking chat is people are telling me this Island's made
• 23:34
  Speaker 3: me soft and soft to you, And I said, all right,
• 23:38
  Speaker 3: we'll have to test the theory out and I get
• 23:39
  Speaker 3: the fuck off this island and we'll see how next
• 23:41
  Speaker 3: year is. But I'm gonna, I'm gonna, I'm gonna stay
• 23:45
  Speaker 3: dugged in because I almost cracked. It came to your side,
• 23:47
  Speaker 3: just because not only is this number trending towards seven
• 23:52
  Speaker 3: and a half, just about every book maker I talked
• 23:57
  Speaker 3: to is like, if Debo is playing, I'm gonna get
• 23:59
  Speaker 3: this it and a half. Like everyone I've talked to
• 24:01
  Speaker 3: feels like this number is gonna keep going up. So
• 24:04
  Speaker 3: unless i'm heavy heavy professional money comes in here late,
• 24:09
  Speaker 3: I just I can see it keep going up where
• 24:11
  Speaker 3: it's like the liability is so heavy towards this forty
• 24:14
  Speaker 3: nine ers team and the forty nine ers future market.
• 24:16
  Speaker 3: You know, every bookmaker again I talked to loves the
• 24:19
  Speaker 3: fact that they're just getting tons of Detroit money line
• 24:22
  Speaker 3: money right now. It's one of the biggest liabilities to
• 24:25
  Speaker 3: the books, but it's so small compared to the future
• 24:29
  Speaker 3: market on this forty nine ers team, where it really
• 24:31
  Speaker 3: doesn't really do that much of a dent to them.
• 24:33
  Speaker 3: So I just I also can't wrap my head around
• 24:37
  Speaker 3: while back to back seasons of one seeds playing each other,
• 24:40
  Speaker 3: like it's just it's not football, Like, it's just not
• 24:43
  Speaker 3: like it's not supposed to be like this. It's a
• 24:45
  Speaker 3: weird shaped ball like Norm McDonald talks about. It's it's
• 24:48
  Speaker 3: not supposed to be go one seed, one seed. It's
• 24:51
  Speaker 3: supposed to be random shit happening here. So this sucks,
• 24:55
  Speaker 3: Like I am, I'm pissed off. I was hoping I
• 24:58
  Speaker 3: was gonna find more crazy guys on my side taking
• 25:00
  Speaker 3: the lines, and it's like they're just they're all terrified
• 25:03
  Speaker 3: of this forty nine ers team. Like when it's all there,
• 25:06
  Speaker 3: like we talked to Chad, talked about when Deebo's playing,
• 25:09
  Speaker 3: when McCaffrey's playing, when Kiddo's playing, you know, they're just
• 25:14
  Speaker 3: they're just unstoppable. And the same can be said about
• 25:18
  Speaker 3: their defense. When it's all clicking, they're really good. And
• 25:21
  Speaker 3: I'll just I keep pushing back that even watching that
• 25:23
  Speaker 3: film last week, it's like, if you throw the right
• 25:26
  Speaker 3: run blocking scheme at the forty nine ers, you can
• 25:29
  Speaker 3: run the ball on them, Like there are ways to
• 25:32
  Speaker 3: move the ball against his team. And then I go
• 25:34
  Speaker 3: back and I talked about that, you know Ravens game,
• 25:38
  Speaker 3: there were a guy who's opening the secondary, Like, if
• 25:40
  Speaker 3: you have the receivers with a type of speed, you
• 25:42
  Speaker 3: can give major issues to this fort nine Ers secondary.
• 25:45
  Speaker 3: The porter I'm on Saint Brown, It's like these are
• 25:48
  Speaker 3: the guys. These these are the way, these are the
• 25:50
  Speaker 3: weapons you can beat this team with. So maybe I'll
• 25:54
  Speaker 3: get burned on this one. I mean, Matt Mitchell scared
• 25:57
  Speaker 3: the shitt I mean when he gave us that stat
• 25:59
  Speaker 3: that nine at all ten conference championship favorites have won
• 26:04
  Speaker 3: and the one upset was the Bengals, or like once
• 26:07
  Speaker 3: the one seven point dog upset with the Bengals, a
• 26:10
  Speaker 3: game me and Chad were also split on, and I
• 26:13
  Speaker 3: was the fool taking Mahomes at home there and the Bengals,
• 26:16
  Speaker 3: you know, they were down what was it, Chad twenty
• 26:19
  Speaker 3: eight to ten and a half came back and won
• 26:21
  Speaker 3: that game. So obviously, I know, taking the Lions money
• 26:25
  Speaker 3: line here and playing them seven and a half, we're
• 26:27
  Speaker 3: gonna need a miracle to win this game out right,
• 26:30
  Speaker 3: But I have to believe that, you know, Goff and
• 26:33
  Speaker 3: the guys will keep this one close to the second half.
• 26:35
  Speaker 3: And it's like, I just I can't stop fighting what
• 26:38
  Speaker 3: sobody pros keep telling me, which is they have when
• 26:43
  Speaker 3: they have to play against these really good teams this season,
• 26:47
  Speaker 3: they've been hit or a miss, right, Like they've they've
• 26:49
  Speaker 3: had games where they've shown up and they've had other
• 26:51
  Speaker 3: games they completely disappeared in. And my pushback against that
• 26:54
  Speaker 3: is just it's a long season. Teams are gonna have
• 26:56
  Speaker 3: up and downs, and there's gonna be streaky teams. And
• 26:59
  Speaker 3: this Detroit team, for the most part, have been incredibly
• 27:02
  Speaker 3: consistent in offense. If you go through all their games
• 27:04
  Speaker 3: this season, they've been really consistent. The fear is what
• 27:08
  Speaker 3: I'm sure Chad's going to break down here. It's just
• 27:10
  Speaker 3: just Detroit defense. I don't know if they're able to
• 27:12
  Speaker 3: get stops. And that's that's definitely my fear. And that's
• 27:15
  Speaker 3: why this number has gotten so big, where so many
• 27:18
  Speaker 3: professionals love this number four niners. It's like the foy Niners. Well,
• 27:21
  Speaker 3: we'll be able to move the ball. We know that
• 27:23
  Speaker 3: is it is Detroit caing be able to move the
• 27:25
  Speaker 3: ball against forty nine ers. That's that's really the question.
• 27:27
  Speaker 3: We're breaking down this game.
• 27:29
  Speaker 2: That's the ball game. That's really it.
• 27:31
  Speaker 1: It's it's the Detroit secondary and you're banking on You're
• 27:37
  Speaker 1: banking on brock Purty having another bad game. Another thing
• 27:41
  Speaker 1: to think about. When brock Purty had that streak in
• 27:44
  Speaker 1: the middle of the year, he was without Trent Williams,
• 27:46
  Speaker 1: who was without Debo.
• 27:48
  Speaker 3: He was confused. Also, what's that he was injured? He
• 27:50
  Speaker 3: was concusied.
• 27:51
  Speaker 1: I was I was just going to say he was
• 27:53
  Speaker 1: also injured. And so like, I understand the impact of Debo.
• 27:59
  Speaker 1: But I do think we cannot discount that Brock Purty
• 28:03
  Speaker 1: is a really good quarterback. The guy is an elite quarterback.
• 28:07
  Speaker 1: You cannot say that someone who came off the bench.
• 28:12
  Speaker 3: But he's pretty good.
• 28:13
  Speaker 1: Yeah, Like led his team to the NFC Title Game
• 28:15
  Speaker 1: last year, played a full season. This year, they're the
• 28:18
  Speaker 1: number one seed. They're in the NFC Title Game again.
• 28:22
  Speaker 1: They're favored by a touchdown. It's not because brock Purty
• 28:26
  Speaker 1: is holding them back. Brock Perty Rock Perty could throw
• 28:30
  Speaker 1: for three hundred and fifty yards in this game with
• 28:33
  Speaker 1: or without Deebo Samuel And so this Lion's secondary really
• 28:39
  Speaker 1: is their achilles heel, and it is the reason why
• 28:43
  Speaker 1: a lot of people are liking the Niners the way
• 28:46
  Speaker 1: they do. I also think, look, there's a key injury.
• 28:51
  Speaker 1: We talk about injuries. We talk about Joe Tooney, the
• 28:53
  Speaker 1: guard for the Chiefs, and that's a key injury because
• 28:56
  Speaker 1: nobody likes pressure up the middle. How do you stop
• 28:59
  Speaker 1: Patrick Mahomes. You don't let him step up in the pocket.
• 29:02
  Speaker 1: Jared Goff was not very good bottom third in the
• 29:05
  Speaker 1: NFL against pressure according to Pro Football Focus throughout the
• 29:08
  Speaker 1: regular season. He was very good against the Bucks, who
• 29:11
  Speaker 1: blitzed a lot, but at the end of the game
• 29:13
  Speaker 1: he got worse. Why did he get worse? Jonah Jackson did?
• 29:16
  Speaker 1: The Lions guard went out with an injury. He allowed
• 29:19
  Speaker 1: zero pressures when he was in the game. He's out
• 29:22
  Speaker 1: of the game. His backup allows seven pressures on eighteen snaps.
• 29:26
  Speaker 1: So that's the guy who's playing this week. Jonah Jackson
• 29:28
  Speaker 1: at surgery. He's not playing this week. I think that
• 29:32
  Speaker 1: the Niners, who don't even like to blitz because they're
• 29:36
  Speaker 1: so good at getting pressure and they are so healthy,
• 29:39
  Speaker 1: Jared Goff isn't going to have a way to step
• 29:41
  Speaker 1: up when there's pressure, and so to me, that's another
• 29:46
  Speaker 1: huge factor in this game.
• 29:49
  Speaker 2: So I'm on the Niners. The exact decision.
• 29:53
  Speaker 1: Maybe the foxhole is me on my own against you,
• 30:00
  Speaker 1: which I don't like to do.
• 30:03
  Speaker 3: You can do that, brother, I mean, we'll only have
• 30:05
  Speaker 3: two games to pick from. You're trying to force four
• 30:07
  Speaker 3: bets in So yeah.
• 30:08
  Speaker 2: Well maybe we're just going three.
• 30:09
  Speaker 1: I think we're just going with big balls. Do By
• 30:11
  Speaker 1: the way, we didn't talk about this. Do you have
• 30:14
  Speaker 1: a thought on the total for the Ravens and the
• 30:17
  Speaker 1: Chiefs and a total and the total on this one?
• 30:22
  Speaker 3: Yeah, that Chiefs line is so fishy, that total where
• 30:26
  Speaker 3: it's like I wanted to take the over first glance,
• 30:29
  Speaker 3: but I've been talking to taking the under for what
• 30:31
  Speaker 3: my bet is where it's like, you know, a couple
• 30:34
  Speaker 3: of persons I talked to, like the way you want
• 30:36
  Speaker 3: this game script to play out, you want the under.
• 30:38
  Speaker 3: You're betting the Ravens right, that really means their defense
• 30:41
  Speaker 3: finally showed up and stop this Chiefs defense so offense.
• 30:45
  Speaker 3: So yeah, liked under there. And even though I have
• 30:49
  Speaker 3: the over under in this forty nine ers game set
• 30:50
  Speaker 3: at fifteen and a half, so teically my model likes
• 30:53
  Speaker 3: the under here. I've been waiting to hear from the
• 30:56
  Speaker 3: luck guys because I'm like, I'm hoping this to luck over.
• 30:58
  Speaker 3: It's like no luck, no luck with the luck Yeah,
• 31:02
  Speaker 3: so no, no, I know, I do kind of want
• 31:07
  Speaker 3: to take the over in this Detroit matchup, just because
• 31:12
  Speaker 3: once again selfishly I'm gonna need it. Most likely, I'm
• 31:16
  Speaker 3: gonna need it to be an over for me to
• 31:17
  Speaker 3: win this Detroit bet at seven and a half, Like,
• 31:20
  Speaker 3: I'm gonna need some type of backdo work unless what
• 31:22
  Speaker 3: Chad just talked about, unless party comes out and lays
• 31:24
  Speaker 3: a total leg. Again, Yeah, they could get rolled by
• 31:28
  Speaker 3: Detroit here, but we don't see that happen. I see
• 31:31
  Speaker 3: Perdy getting his I see Gothk in his. So if
• 31:35
  Speaker 3: if you had to force a bet here for me,
• 31:37
  Speaker 3: I would take the over. But man, it's been creeping up.
• 31:40
  Speaker 3: I'm seeing a couple of fifty one and a half,
• 31:41
  Speaker 3: so I'm seeing a couple of fifty two's out there.
• 31:43
  Speaker 3: So uh, definitely moving up direction because of what I
• 31:46
  Speaker 3: talked about where if you want to talk about whether
• 31:49
  Speaker 3: being a factor, everything like that. It is supposed to
• 31:51
  Speaker 3: be perfect sixty degrees and sunny for this game, no
• 31:56
  Speaker 3: wind at all either, So obviously we prefer golf and
• 32:01
  Speaker 3: indoors in a dome. But this is as good as
• 32:03
  Speaker 3: it's going to get for the guy. Like in January,
• 32:05
  Speaker 3: he's playing outdoors in sixty degree weather.
• 32:08
  Speaker 1: You can't ask for much more, no, but I can
• 32:11
  Speaker 1: still ask that he not play well into the Niners
• 32:13
  Speaker 1: cover as a touchdown favorite.
• 32:15
  Speaker 2: That's all I can do. All right, we're gonna we're
• 32:19
  Speaker 2: gonna bring Evan in a sack.
• 32:20
  Speaker 1: But I do want to quickly look at Super Bowl
• 32:23
  Speaker 1: MVP futures because I thought it was interesting at bet
• 32:26
  Speaker 1: three sixty five, the top twelve guys listed. One guy
• 32:32
  Speaker 1: on the Ravens at the top Lamar plus two forty
• 32:34
  Speaker 1: one guy on the Ravens at the bottom is a
• 32:36
  Speaker 1: Flowers seventy five to one. The rest five Niners, then
• 32:44
  Speaker 1: the Chiefs, and then the Lions. We got Lamar, Brock, McCaffrey,
• 32:50
  Speaker 1: Mahomes all at four to one or less, and then
• 32:56
  Speaker 1: you know, you can go down the list from there.
• 32:57
  Speaker 1: It's goth It's Ayuk Debo, be a mon Rod.
• 33:01
  Speaker 3: Yeah, if you're gonna have to take a long shot,
• 33:03
  Speaker 3: I don't want to give too much away before the
• 33:05
  Speaker 3: actual week, but yeah, if you want to. If you
• 33:08
  Speaker 3: want to go a long shot, like me and Chad
• 33:10
  Speaker 3: talk about, usually try to go to the wide receiver
• 33:12
  Speaker 3: position where it's like we want that boom er bus
• 33:15
  Speaker 3: kind of guy. So I don't want to steal Chad's pick,
• 33:17
  Speaker 3: But if you if you're looking at long shots. I
• 33:19
  Speaker 3: would look in the wide receiver position.
• 33:21
  Speaker 1: Oh well, you're you're you're hinting that I'm going with
• 33:24
  Speaker 1: Jay Flowers at seventy five or one of the fifty
• 33:27
  Speaker 1: eight total Super Bowl MVPs, thirty two qbs, eight wide receivers,
• 33:32
  Speaker 1: seven running backs, a wide receiver, one MVP two years
• 33:36
  Speaker 1: ago and in twos in twenty nineteen, Julian Edelman and
• 33:39
  Speaker 1: Cooper Cup two years ago.
• 33:41
  Speaker 2: A running back hasn't.
• 33:42
  Speaker 1: Won since nineteen ninety eight, So don't speculate about McCaffrey.
• 33:49
  Speaker 2: History not on his side, and.
• 33:51
  Speaker 3: They'll never give it to him. I think it was
• 33:54
  Speaker 3: four or five Super bowls ago. I know Evan probably
• 33:56
  Speaker 3: remembers name, but I forget the name of the running back.
• 33:58
  Speaker 3: But basically over for the Chiefs, I.
• 34:02
  Speaker 5: Had them Damien Williams, Jamian Williams, Jamian Williams, Yes, like
• 34:06
  Speaker 5: that guy at over one hundred yards, had their game
• 34:08
  Speaker 5: seeing touchdown, Like did everything you could possibly do, and
• 34:11
  Speaker 5: they still gave it to Mahome.
• 34:13
  Speaker 3: So it's like, just be weary if you're trying to
• 34:15
  Speaker 3: bet these running backs. It's just Chad just gave you
• 34:18
  Speaker 3: a stat It really doesn't work.
• 34:20
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• 35:01
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• 35:13
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• 35:20
  Speaker 1: friends and enjoy a few slices during the game. Also,
• 35:22
  Speaker 1: don't forget catch every episode of the Favorites live on
• 35:26
  Speaker 1: YouTube Tuesday, Thursday Sunday. If you're watching on YouTube, don't
• 35:29
  Speaker 1: forget to give us a like and subscribe to the
• 35:31
  Speaker 1: Action Network YouTube page. Also should remind everybody that we
• 35:36
  Speaker 1: will go live after the final conference championship.
• 35:40
  Speaker 2: Game as we did.
• 35:41
  Speaker 1: So we'll be going a little bit later on Sunday,
• 35:44
  Speaker 1: hoping this Sunday is not as tortuous as this past Sunday. Simon,
• 35:49
  Speaker 1: you mentioned that you pulled back a little bit on
• 35:51
  Speaker 1: your Ravens bet, like you haven't gone all in the
• 35:53
  Speaker 1: way you thought you would.
• 35:55
  Speaker 2: Do you have a biggest bet of the week so far.
• 35:59
  Speaker 3: Yeah, it's Ravens at what I give it out, minus
• 36:01
  Speaker 3: three and a half. Like I only was able to
• 36:04
  Speaker 3: get a little amount down a minus three. A lot
• 36:06
  Speaker 3: of books didn't want that action on the Monday where
• 36:09
  Speaker 3: it's like they'd let you get a little tasting down.
• 36:11
  Speaker 3: They're really waiting to see what the kind of money
• 36:13
  Speaker 3: they're gonna get on in the Chiefs. Once they moved
• 36:15
  Speaker 3: to minus three and a half, I could get as
• 36:16
  Speaker 3: much as I wanted down. They were happy to take
• 36:18
  Speaker 3: whatever I wanted to take on Ravens. But usually I
• 36:21
  Speaker 3: like playing these spots where it's like you're gonna usually
• 36:23
  Speaker 3: get good value on the dogs and these kind of games.
• 36:25
  Speaker 3: But it feels like both games are pretty priced right,
• 36:28
  Speaker 3: like the the lines number. I did have a model
• 36:32
  Speaker 3: at six. But it's like what you talked about is
• 36:35
  Speaker 3: such a true thing where it's like, I'm probably not
• 36:37
  Speaker 3: accounting for these injuries to the lines, and that also
• 36:40
  Speaker 3: is why the numbers moved a little bit because the
• 36:42
  Speaker 3: injuries to their offensive line. But yeah, honestly, the more
• 36:46
  Speaker 3: I've looked at these numbers, they just feel right. So
• 36:49
  Speaker 3: I tend to find great value in the playoffs. The
• 36:53
  Speaker 3: only game that was really like I had to take
• 36:56
  Speaker 3: was like beed my life on it was that Rams
• 36:58
  Speaker 3: plus three and a half. So far these playoffs where
• 37:00
  Speaker 3: I just haven't had the value I usually tend to
• 37:02
  Speaker 3: see in the playoffs, and that it really comes down
• 37:04
  Speaker 3: the books have just been sharper right. It's I mean
• 37:06
  Speaker 3: we talked about last week, fifty million people watch that
• 37:10
  Speaker 3: Chief Spills game, Like the books know how important these
• 37:12
  Speaker 3: games aren't how many people bet it, So yeah, had
• 37:15
  Speaker 3: tip to them. They've just been really sharp with a
• 37:17
  Speaker 3: lot of these lines. And if any team's gonna get
• 37:20
  Speaker 3: blown out this week, it would be Detroit. So it
• 37:22
  Speaker 3: totally makes sense why this number is getting up a
• 37:24
  Speaker 3: seven and a half. At this point. You were dead
• 37:27
  Speaker 3: orright taking them at six and a half. I did
• 37:29
  Speaker 3: not think it would get to this point. But yeah,
• 37:32
  Speaker 3: the more you dive into the numbers and break it down.
• 37:34
  Speaker 3: It's like there's a couple of big advantages of forty
• 37:37
  Speaker 3: nine ers have they could exploit in this matchup. So yeah,
• 37:40
  Speaker 3: I wanted to bet big on the lines. It's tough
• 37:43
  Speaker 3: for me to get there right now. Ravens no doubt
• 37:45
  Speaker 3: my biggest bed of the week, and like you said,
• 37:48
  Speaker 3: I'm probably gonna throw a little more on the Ravens
• 37:50
  Speaker 3: first half as well. After hearing the Lamar stat.
• 37:53
  Speaker 1: Yep, that stat you gave on Tuesday, has been sitting
• 37:56
  Speaker 1: with me that more people watch this one playoff game
• 38:00
  Speaker 1: than all of the World Series games combined.
• 38:04
  Speaker 3: Now, the script effect is one of the crazier things
• 38:09
  Speaker 3: that I've experienced a football fan, where like, even even
• 38:12
  Speaker 3: if you know all of her fans move on right
• 38:16
  Speaker 3: her and Kelsey break up in the offseason. The NFL
• 38:19
  Speaker 3: must be just so out of this world happy that,
• 38:22
  Speaker 3: like these hundred millions of people that would never watch
• 38:25
  Speaker 3: football at all. I've been checking into these games and
• 38:27
  Speaker 3: reading up on stuff happened the NFL. So again, conspiracy theory, simon.
• 38:32
  Speaker 3: They don't want this Taylor Swift party to end this weekend,
• 38:35
  Speaker 3: So definitely something I'm worried about Yad.
• 38:38
  Speaker 1: Romantic Taylor Swift loving Chad does not want it to
• 38:42
  Speaker 1: end either.
• 38:44
  Speaker 2: I love all of it.
• 38:45
  Speaker 1: I love her in the box, I love her hanging
• 38:47
  Speaker 1: with his family, I love her being part of these
• 38:50
  Speaker 1: crazy Kelsey brothers.
• 38:52
  Speaker 2: I just think it's awesome and it seems to really
• 38:54
  Speaker 2: make her happy.
• 38:55
  Speaker 3: So people are asking me, They're like, they're like, you
• 39:00
  Speaker 3: think you think people are gonna batually start hating Kelsey.
• 39:03
  Speaker 3: And it's like he's the only one of the only
• 39:05
  Speaker 3: people that could take their shirt off, be a little overweight,
• 39:08
  Speaker 3: jumping in and out of a box and pick up
• 39:10
  Speaker 3: little kids. Where everyone's like, no, that's all right, that's
• 39:13
  Speaker 3: just Jason Kelsey, where it's like any other guy would
• 39:15
  Speaker 3: have been in jail right away.
• 39:16
  Speaker 2: Well, yeah, I don't think anyone's gonna hate you either.
• 39:18
  Speaker 2: They're imminently likable.
• 39:20
  Speaker 1: Speaking of likable, the Favorites podcast is presented by bet
• 39:24
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  Speaker 1: Terms conditioned restrictions apply what.
• 40:00
  Speaker 3: At a time. First laws, it takes.
• 40:03
  Speaker 1: Let's go, let's get it all right, We'll we get
• 40:05
  Speaker 1: out of here. Let's bring in Action Network Director or
• 40:08
  Speaker 1: Research Evan Abrams. We mentioned him all the time. He's
• 40:11
  Speaker 1: world famous. We are going to talk a little bit
• 40:13
  Speaker 1: about some last words that Evan gets to share.
• 40:19
  Speaker 3: The last word with Evan Abrams.
• 40:23
  Speaker 2: We're finished talking.
• 40:24
  Speaker 4: What's up, Chad? Before I get into my nuggets, I
• 40:27
  Speaker 4: do have to say one thing. So money line percentage
• 40:29
  Speaker 4: Simon brought up earlier. So forty four percent of the
• 40:31
  Speaker 4: money line tickets are on the lions, which is actually insane.
• 40:35
  Speaker 4: It's a lot compared because the dog usually doesn't get
• 40:38
  Speaker 4: that MUCHIC tickets, but if you look at the money
• 40:40
  Speaker 4: line handle, seventy five percent of the money line handle
• 40:43
  Speaker 4: on the Lions money line, so there is a ton
• 40:47
  Speaker 4: of action coming in. And the fact that that's the
• 40:48
  Speaker 4: late game is also really interesting because if say the
• 40:52
  Speaker 4: Ravens win, you're gonna have a lot of money line
• 40:53
  Speaker 4: tickets lined up on that second game, and usually it'd
• 40:56
  Speaker 4: be on the Niners. But seeing all that action on
• 40:58
  Speaker 4: the Lions little fascinating. So I figured that was worth
• 41:01
  Speaker 4: mentioning off the top. All right, let's do some nuggets here.
• 41:04
  Speaker 4: So I got a bunch of stuff. So after two nuggets,
• 41:07
  Speaker 4: let's chop it up a little bit. But let's start
• 41:09
  Speaker 4: with that Detroit San Francisco game. So here's a live
• 41:11
  Speaker 4: betting angle. Last week, the Niners trailed twenty one to
• 41:15
  Speaker 4: fourteen with twenty minutes left and won the game. But
• 41:18
  Speaker 4: under Kyle Shanahan, that's a very rare circumstance. So under Shanahan,
• 41:21
  Speaker 4: the forty nine ers are thirty two percent straight up
• 41:24
  Speaker 4: and against the spread after trailing by a touchdown or more.
• 41:26
  Speaker 4: At any point when they're trailing by more than one possession,
• 41:30
  Speaker 4: it's really been lights out. They are six and forty
• 41:33
  Speaker 4: straight up, seven and thirty nine against the spread by
• 41:37
  Speaker 4: trailing by more than one possession, some more than eight points.
• 41:40
  Speaker 4: Of the thirteen coaches since twenty seventeen since Shanahan got hired,
• 41:43
  Speaker 4: with forty games or more, he is second worst, ahead
• 41:46
  Speaker 4: of only Adam Gase. You never want to be in
• 41:48
  Speaker 4: a stat with Adam Gase. So that is a pretty
• 41:51
  Speaker 4: difficult situation when it comes to Shanahan. He did win
• 41:54
  Speaker 4: last week, but usually not coming back.
• 41:56
  Speaker 3: I'll give you one more.
• 41:58
  Speaker 4: So. The Buffalo hangover has been something that's been talked about.
• 42:01
  Speaker 4: We've seen the stat all week where teams that have
• 42:03
  Speaker 4: beaten Buffalo in the playoffs are zero in four straight
• 42:06
  Speaker 4: up in their next game. I'll take it one step further,
• 42:08
  Speaker 4: like I tend to do, so it's not really your
• 42:11
  Speaker 4: quit instance. Over the last three seasons, teams are three
• 42:14
  Speaker 4: and fourteen against the spread the game after beating Buffalo,
• 42:18
  Speaker 4: failing to cover the spread by six points per game.
• 42:21
  Speaker 4: And that's like, that's like twenty four and forty one
• 42:24
  Speaker 4: after beating Buffalo under any circumstance. So usually we've talked
• 42:28
  Speaker 4: about this in the past with like the Ravens, the Steelers,
• 42:31
  Speaker 4: the forty nine ers. There's something about this Buffalo team
• 42:34
  Speaker 4: and maybe Josh on the offensive side that kind of
• 42:36
  Speaker 4: takes it out of teams.
• 42:38
  Speaker 1: Man, that's a good one. Yeah, I've got a theory
• 42:42
  Speaker 1: on the Shanahan.
• 42:45
  Speaker 2: Record.
• 42:46
  Speaker 1: He's never had a quarterback he could rely on. Ya
• 42:51
  Speaker 1: is a difference maker.
• 42:52
  Speaker 4: I think Chad's honestly, the quarterback in the past was terrible.
• 42:54
  Speaker 4: Now at least he's moderate and level, and so I
• 42:57
  Speaker 4: think that stat is pretty much like the rest of
• 43:00
  Speaker 4: every coach. That's my opinion on it.
• 43:02
  Speaker 3: Yeah, that right, there is a stat where it's like
• 43:05
  Speaker 3: that's what is so special about him, where it's like
• 43:08
  Speaker 3: his offense, if it's all working, he can make anyone
• 43:11
  Speaker 3: Jimmy Garoppolo into a super Bowl quarterback exactly. But if
• 43:15
  Speaker 3: that Jimmy Garoppolo, it's same Jimmy Garoppolo gets down seven,
• 43:18
  Speaker 3: it's like they're kind of they're screwed. And that's the
• 43:21
  Speaker 3: most been the interesting part about Cole's tenure, where it's
• 43:23
  Speaker 3: like he's never had the guy he traded up or
• 43:26
  Speaker 3: Trey Lance put really put his neck out there and say,
• 43:30
  Speaker 3: you know what, I screwed up the third pick overall,
• 43:34
  Speaker 3: how about we use this guy who's the last pick
• 43:36
  Speaker 3: in the draft is our starting quarterback. And it's like,
• 43:38
  Speaker 3: you know, that's what it takes to be a great quach.
• 43:41
  Speaker 3: It's like that party has to feel that pressure in
• 43:43
  Speaker 3: that confidence right where it's like the coach really stuck
• 43:47
  Speaker 3: his neck out for him and he delivered. This season,
• 43:48
  Speaker 3: they got the one seed. Chad just talked about, like
• 43:51
  Speaker 3: that comeback. That's not something Jimmy would have done, right,
• 43:55
  Speaker 3: Like we would have left him for dead. I'm not
• 43:57
  Speaker 3: going like again, I took an absolute beating last week.
• 44:00
  Speaker 3: That was a another incredibly dumb bet I made where
• 44:03
  Speaker 3: it's like, oh, Shanon's down right now in the fourth quarter,
• 44:06
  Speaker 3: let me wait for them to get closer, tie this up,
• 44:08
  Speaker 3: and I'll do another bet on Green Bay. Instantly regret
• 44:11
  Speaker 3: that bet, trying to fade Shane Hand in that spot,
• 44:13
  Speaker 3: but yeah, it's like that that was a turning point,
• 44:17
  Speaker 3: right like that pretty could have found something in that game.
• 44:20
  Speaker 3: Or Chad might be asking himself midway through the third
• 44:23
  Speaker 3: quarter of this Detroit game, why did I bet on
• 44:25
  Speaker 3: Purdy as a seven point favorite one? Once again? And
• 44:29
  Speaker 3: that's the hardest part of you're trying to bet these
• 44:30
  Speaker 3: guys where it's like it's hard enough to have a
• 44:33
  Speaker 3: little bit of doubt. If all the quarterbacks left right,
• 44:35
  Speaker 3: the only one that with a little bit of doubt
• 44:37
  Speaker 3: is Purty because the other guys, you know, Lamar, MVP, Mahomes,
• 44:41
  Speaker 3: Super Bowl, Golf, super Bowl, Like, there are a lot
• 44:44
  Speaker 3: of questions about Purdy, but man, is he disproving a
• 44:47
  Speaker 3: lot of that stuff like that comeback last week, like
• 44:49
  Speaker 3: Chad said, that's something Shane has ever had before. So
• 44:52
  Speaker 3: we could definitely be seeing the start of a new
• 44:54
  Speaker 3: dynasty here in this forty nine Ers team.
• 44:57
  Speaker 4: I also say this Lions this year ten and oh
• 44:59
  Speaker 4: straight up after leading after the first quarter, so if
• 45:01
  Speaker 4: they fall behind, that might come into play a little.
• 45:05
  Speaker 4: This is a good one on gov. So the Niners
• 45:06
  Speaker 4: sack the opposing quarterbacks at a rate of four point
• 45:09
  Speaker 4: two percent this season, So that's the percentage of defensive
• 45:11
  Speaker 4: plays at end in a sack, and for reference, that's
• 45:13
  Speaker 4: very good. But surprisingly, gopis face teams, and Goff has
• 45:17
  Speaker 4: faced teams at a rate of four percent or higher.
• 45:19
  Speaker 4: He is twenty eight sixteen and one against a spread
• 45:22
  Speaker 4: in his career, including fifteen and four as a Lion
• 45:25
  Speaker 4: and seven and one this season. So Gazakstaki tend to
• 45:29
  Speaker 4: say he turned into a pumpkin. We say it as well.
• 45:31
  Speaker 4: But that's actually that's actually a pretty good mark of
• 45:33
  Speaker 4: fifteen and four, especially when you can say he is
• 45:35
  Speaker 4: getting the seven points this week. So that's one.
• 45:38
  Speaker 2: I mean, we'll go this week. But that's amazing.
• 45:41
  Speaker 4: I'm on the Lions, so this is this is fantastic.
• 45:43
  Speaker 4: Let's go to Mahomes and Baltimore for a second. So
• 45:46
  Speaker 4: so much has been made of Mahomes, but Lamar versus
• 45:49
  Speaker 4: this Chiefs defense, to me is probably the biggest matchup
• 45:52
  Speaker 4: of the game, as I think has been discussed in
• 45:54
  Speaker 4: this pod. So Casey is allowing just seventeen points per
• 45:57
  Speaker 4: game this year, Lamar is already won an eleven straight
• 46:01
  Speaker 4: up at home in his career. Overall, it's seventy four
• 46:04
  Speaker 4: percent across forty two home games versus team's allowing twenty
• 46:07
  Speaker 4: points per game or more, he is twenty three and five,
• 46:10
  Speaker 4: eighty two percent versus team's allowed having less than twenty
• 46:13
  Speaker 4: points per game, he is just six and six. So
• 46:16
  Speaker 4: better defensive, better scenarios hasn't been the easiest for him.
• 46:20
  Speaker 4: It's been tighter games for what it's worth.
• 46:23
  Speaker 1: And I noticed you were on the Lions. You put
• 46:25
  Speaker 1: that pick into the app pretty early in the week,
• 46:27
  Speaker 1: and I'm not gonna lie. It was right after Simon
• 46:30
  Speaker 1: and I had had a conversation and my stomach dropped
• 46:33
  Speaker 1: a little bit, so until Simon had said.
• 46:36
  Speaker 2: The sharp's with me, I was a little bit antsy. Now,
• 46:38
  Speaker 2: I'll be honest, though, I literally on.
• 46:40
  Speaker 4: This podcast I bet it at seven and a half,
• 46:42
  Speaker 4: so I bet it again. Detroit's been absolutely torched on defense.
• 46:45
  Speaker 4: But I don't trust Party. I won't trust Purty, not
• 46:48
  Speaker 4: just I feel like he's a mediocre quarterback and amazing
• 46:51
  Speaker 4: system and the fact that Debo is banged up and
• 46:54
  Speaker 4: not himself. I just don't trust it. I'll take the points,
• 46:57
  Speaker 4: especially I think I think I'm with Simon as well,
• 47:00
  Speaker 4: going to get to eight, especially like that day, You're
• 47:02
  Speaker 4: gonna get a lot of nine interaction in my opinion.
• 47:05
  Speaker 4: All right, two more for you guys.
• 47:06
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 47:07
  Speaker 4: San Francisco treats. So the forty nine ers have actually
• 47:10
  Speaker 4: lost six straight home games against the spread. They haven't
• 47:13
  Speaker 4: covered at home since October eighth. They are three and
• 47:17
  Speaker 4: six ats this season at home. In the last twenty years,
• 47:20
  Speaker 4: only two teams have played a home game in their
• 47:23
  Speaker 4: conference championship with the home win percentage ATS thirty three
• 47:27
  Speaker 4: percent or less. Like the forty nine ers, they were
• 47:29
  Speaker 4: both Mahomes. They were both the Chiefs twenty twenty two
• 47:32
  Speaker 4: and twenty twenty Chiefs one. Chiefs covered, moved on, nothing mattered.
• 47:37
  Speaker 4: I find it interesting just because the six game home
• 47:40
  Speaker 4: losing streak mostly wins, mostly not covers, end up winning
• 47:44
  Speaker 4: and covering in that game with the with the shorter spread.
• 47:47
  Speaker 4: I'm a little scared because why is the number so
• 47:49
  Speaker 4: much higher this week when those Mahomes games short spreads
• 47:53
  Speaker 4: basically pick'ems. Kind of the reason I like the Lioness
• 47:57
  Speaker 4: a little bit. I think it's just inflated. So that's
• 47:58
  Speaker 4: number one, and then we're going to do the Mahomes
• 48:00
  Speaker 4: dog thing just because we kind of have to. So
• 48:03
  Speaker 4: he hasn't been an underdog and consecutive starts since his
• 48:07
  Speaker 4: rookie year in twenty eighteen. After the outright when last week,
• 48:10
  Speaker 4: he is eight and three straight up in his career
• 48:12
  Speaker 4: as an underdog. It's the best record for any quarterback
• 48:15
  Speaker 4: in the Super Bowl area where a minimum of ten starts.
• 48:17
  Speaker 4: Best ever. Now the Chiefs opened plus three and a half.
• 48:21
  Speaker 4: We're still seeing three and a half's. There's some fours,
• 48:24
  Speaker 4: but it's just the sixth time Mahomes has opened at
• 48:26
  Speaker 4: plus three or higher, first time since Baltimore in twenty twenty,
• 48:30
  Speaker 4: which is always a fun situation. He's actually five and
• 48:33
  Speaker 4: oh against the spread, never lost, never lost against the
• 48:36
  Speaker 4: spread in the spot, always finds a way, and here's
• 48:39
  Speaker 4: a fun one if you like it. With the later game.
• 48:41
  Speaker 4: So Mahomes eleven and oh as an underdog and a
• 48:45
  Speaker 4: six point teaser, so if he wanted to push that up,
• 48:47
  Speaker 4: that might be an angle.
• 48:48
  Speaker 3: To And Evan said, his first two games or an underdog,
• 48:51
  Speaker 3: This is how much of a degenerate I am. Check
• 48:53
  Speaker 3: I can remember those games. If there was yesterday, bet
• 48:56
  Speaker 3: on Mahomes. It was Week one. He was at I
• 48:58
  Speaker 3: believe the Chargers. He was probably a three and a
• 49:02
  Speaker 3: half four point dog. Bet him on the money line,
• 49:04
  Speaker 3: bet the number. I was like, wow, this is so
• 49:06
  Speaker 3: easy against old man Rivers. Easy bet. The next week
• 49:09
  Speaker 3: it was on the road at Pittsburgh and I was like, okay,
• 49:12
  Speaker 3: this is where you fade the first year starter against
• 49:14
  Speaker 3: Ben Roethlisberger. After a big win, he went to Pittsburgh
• 49:17
  Speaker 3: won again. Outright, So mahomes first two games as a dog,
• 49:21
  Speaker 3: you want him both on the road, both outright. Should
• 49:24
  Speaker 3: have known he was a unicorn right then and there.
• 49:27
  Speaker 4: He actually started his career eight to zero against the spread.
• 49:29
  Speaker 4: We all should have known.
• 49:30
  Speaker 3: Holy shit.
• 49:31
  Speaker 1: Yeah, and yet and yet, somehow our big balls bet
• 49:36
  Speaker 1: of the week betting against the guy who will go
• 49:40
  Speaker 1: down no joke. Is the greatest quarterback in NFL history,
• 49:45
  Speaker 1: who breaks every model, who one of the finest minds
• 49:50
  Speaker 1: I've ever spoken to in sports betting. Simon Hunter has
• 49:54
  Speaker 1: said there is no model for Patrick Mahomes. So, I mean,
• 50:00
  Speaker 1: I think you can see why I'm being a coward
• 50:01
  Speaker 1: in this game. Yeah, if the first half all right
• 50:06
  Speaker 1: to recap, Chad likes San Francisco minus seven, that's his
• 50:11
  Speaker 1: exact decision. Simon likes Baltimore minus three and a half,
• 50:15
  Speaker 1: and Baltimore minus three and a half is going to
• 50:17
  Speaker 1: be our big balls bet of the week. Uh, do
• 50:22
  Speaker 1: we want to do a money line round robin here?
• 50:24
  Speaker 1: I mean, I think the only thing to do is
• 50:25
  Speaker 1: bet San Francisco and Baltimore, And there was a moment
• 50:28
  Speaker 1: this week where that as a pairing was plus money.
• 50:33
  Speaker 3: Yeah. I think Evanson was like, what plus one FIFTEENV.
• 50:37
  Speaker 2: You could do it?
• 50:38
  Speaker 3: And I think you can do what Evan just talked
• 50:39
  Speaker 3: about if you want, you can make that play if
• 50:43
  Speaker 3: the Ravens win, you can take a position on the
• 50:45
  Speaker 3: lines and just try to try to, you know, hit
• 50:49
  Speaker 3: a plus number on a couple of money lines where
• 50:51
  Speaker 3: it's like, I think the lines are up to plus
• 50:53
  Speaker 3: two to fifty, so you can easily hedge that. Or
• 50:56
  Speaker 3: you know, if you really wanted to, you could take
• 50:58
  Speaker 3: a seven and a half and just try to hit
• 51:00
  Speaker 3: the middle. But yeah, a lot of options there.
• 51:05
  Speaker 4: For me.
• 51:05
  Speaker 3: Chat If I have to do a money liner on Robin,
• 51:07
  Speaker 3: I know ours is gonna be different. I'm all in
• 51:10
  Speaker 3: on this Lion's team. I'm drinking the kool aid. I
• 51:12
  Speaker 3: love the story, love everything about it. You know me,
• 51:15
  Speaker 3: I'm a romantic like this. This is literally my icy
• 51:18
  Speaker 3: heart becomes a little warmer with this Lions story. So
• 51:21
  Speaker 3: give me the lines money line with the Ravens money
• 51:23
  Speaker 3: line paired.
• 51:24
  Speaker 2: Up Island Soft.
• 51:29
  Speaker 1: Facts Facts my biggest remaining future of the season is
• 51:37
  Speaker 1: a Chiefs Niners matchup in the Super Bowl. Okay, it's
• 51:42
  Speaker 1: like I think I got it at like twenty five,
• 51:45
  Speaker 1: between twenty five and thirty to one.
• 51:46
  Speaker 2: I'd have to look at my records to see for sure.
• 51:49
  Speaker 2: But so I am.
• 51:51
  Speaker 1: I'm, you know, thinking about what my hedge will be
• 51:55
  Speaker 1: if in the first game. I think the first game
• 51:57
  Speaker 1: is the Ravens and the Chiefs. If the Chiefs win,
• 52:00
  Speaker 1: I'm thinking about what my potential hedge on the lines
• 52:04
  Speaker 1: will be, and I will certainly be phishing for advice
• 52:08
  Speaker 1: in that window between kickoffs.
• 52:10
  Speaker 3: So you're being a grades So I can put like
• 52:12
  Speaker 3: five or I don't know what you put on. If
• 52:14
  Speaker 3: you can put five or seven K on the Lions
• 52:15
  Speaker 3: money line, and it's like, no matter what, you'll get
• 52:18
  Speaker 3: a nice payday.
• 52:19
  Speaker 1: If, oh my, I'll put it least, dude, I'm gonna
• 52:22
  Speaker 1: have to call you off to put at least one
• 52:23
  Speaker 1: hundred K down just to match what the meetings will be.
• 52:27
  Speaker 2: Only you running all over the place for me.
• 52:29
  Speaker 1: There you go, Download us from Spotify, Apple podcast, wherever
• 52:33
  Speaker 1: you get your pods. Rate review, subscribe, weave as five stars,
• 52:37
  Speaker 1: say whatever you want, feedback as a gift until we
• 52:39
  Speaker 1: see you guys Sunday Night Live after the Lions forty
• 52:44
  Speaker 1: nine Ers game. I Love You.
• 52:51
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• 52:55
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