Latest / Toadstool Sports / Best Bets Today | 7-1 Sixers vs 6-1 Pistons for 1st in East?! | NBA, NHL, CBB & CFB Picks Wednesday

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Best Bets Today | 7-1 Sixers vs 6-1 Pistons for 1st in East?! | NBA, NHL, CBB & CFB Picks Wednesday · Toadstool Sports

0:01
Speaker 1: Well we got our one play on the show right
0:04
Speaker 1: yesterday uh with the utah mammoth i couldn't find my
0:07
Speaker 1: my utah jersey i like that jersey it's somewhere in
0:11
Speaker 1: the pile of jerseys that i have too many of
0:14
Speaker 1: them to fit on the rings of the closet on
0:18
Speaker 1: hangers whatever whatever you want to call it you don't
0:20
Speaker 1: want to hear about my closet setup that doesn't even
0:23
Speaker 1: sound right i'm coming out of the closet on the
0:25
Speaker 1: show everybody no um And then I was right about
0:28
Speaker 1: the over lean that I had as well. That would
0:30
Speaker 1: have been an easy win. I should have added that
0:32
Speaker 1: the Colorado Avalanche game over, they got obliterated 7-2, but
0:37
Speaker 1: that game went way over the total. And then I
0:39
Speaker 1: was correct about Akron covering college football as well. Not
0:43
Speaker 1: correct about college basketball, the Arkansas game. Pine Bluff was
0:47
Speaker 1: kind of hanging in there. I mean, middle of the
0:50
Speaker 1: second half, it looked like they were going to cover that.
0:51
Speaker 1: And then Arkansas, I mean, that team could just score
0:54
Speaker 1: so fast. They can just go on ridiculous runs because
0:57
Speaker 1: they play really fast. Offense is good. They just ran
1:01
Speaker 1: away with it, but whatever, you know. The only play
1:03
Speaker 1: we gave up was a winner, so that was good
1:05
Speaker 1: with Utah. It was a close-ish game. I mean, they
1:08
Speaker 1: were the better team in the game statistically. They never
1:10
Speaker 1: trailed in the game. They were just winning it by
1:13
Speaker 1: one goal basically all throughout the game and wound up
1:17
Speaker 1: winning 3-2. So there you go. Randy, what's up, man?
1:19
Speaker 1: Thanks for hanging out again. Hell yeah. Uh, today I'm
1:24
Speaker 1: going to give out an NBA play, which is probably
1:27
Speaker 1: not surprising. It's just NBA has been good. Uh, there's
1:29
Speaker 1: a lot of NBA today. I've narrowed it down to
1:32
Speaker 1: one play that I think is the best. And it is,
1:35
Speaker 1: it is really ugly. Um, it's just, this is how
1:39
Speaker 1: we do it, man. You gotta have the stomach for this.
1:41
Speaker 1: And then, uh, I'm going to give out a college
1:44
Speaker 1: football play as well in the, uh, in the maxion
1:47
Speaker 1: because why not? I think it's good enough. Uh, Yeah,
1:52
Speaker 1: I think the spot sets up reasonably well for it.
1:54
Speaker 1: So that's going to come up after the intro. You
2:15
Speaker 1: got a.
2:16
Speaker 2: Slip in your palm and a hole in your chest.
2:19
Speaker 1: Black coffee on the felt, man, you look like a mess.
2:24
Speaker 2: Three-team parlay turned to dust in your hand. Now you
2:28
Speaker 2: stare at the chips like they made you this man.
2:32
Speaker 1: But don't you go quiet, don't you fade from the floor.
2:36
Speaker 2: Your name still means something to somebody for sure.
2:40
Speaker 1: Put the glass down, baby.
2:43
Speaker 2: Look at me now Hold on, hold on Not tonight,
2:54
Speaker 2: not now Hold on, hold on Let me pull you
3:04
Speaker 2: out That fell apart by its heart But it don't
3:10
Speaker 2: get the crown hold on hold.
3:16
Speaker 1: On stay with.
3:17
Speaker 2: Me now all.
3:25
Speaker 1: Right what's up everybody it's toad back with you with
3:28
Speaker 1: toadstool sports wednesday november 4th yeah man uh let's keep
3:35
Speaker 1: this hot run going it's been a pretty good uh
3:37
Speaker 1: month basically over the last 30 days uh It's going
3:40
Speaker 1: pretty well. Let's try to keep it going here, man.
3:44
Speaker 1: There is a little bit of hockey today. I'm skipping
3:46
Speaker 1: this small hockey board, but I'll talk about it on
3:48
Speaker 1: the show. Ottawa and Buffalo is the first game at 7.30 p.m.
3:53
Speaker 1: Eastern here. Buffalo's are turning over from a road trip,
3:56
Speaker 1: so right away I'm looking at this as probably you
3:59
Speaker 1: should fade Buffalo here. Pretty successful road trip. They started...
4:03
Speaker 1: in the Eastern time zone, losing overtime to Washington, which
4:06
Speaker 1: is not a bad loss. And then they went out
4:08
Speaker 1: and swept their California trip, beating all three California teams.
4:13
Speaker 1: And now they're coming home from that. They do have
4:15
Speaker 1: a few days off here, which sometimes can help, but
4:19
Speaker 1: sometimes it can get you too settled in at home
4:21
Speaker 1: and the distractions still happen. So that would be my worry, obviously.
4:26
Speaker 1: Every time a team is returning home from a road
4:27
Speaker 1: trip like this, I always talk about how things pile
4:31
Speaker 1: up that you have to get done at home. You
4:32
Speaker 1: get back home, and those become a distraction once you
4:35
Speaker 1: get back home. They may still be focused because Ottawa's
4:39
Speaker 1: not a bad team, and their next game isn't really
4:41
Speaker 1: that big against Columbus. But still, I mean, my default
4:45
Speaker 1: behavior basically is fade a team and start turning it
4:48
Speaker 1: on from a road trip. But the question is, do
4:51
Speaker 1: I really want to play Ottawa here? I don't, really.
4:55
Speaker 1: Ottawa is... in kind of a weird spot where they
4:58
Speaker 1: were also in the pacific time zone they've had one
5:01
Speaker 1: fewer day off but they're coming back from the pacific
5:03
Speaker 1: time zone as well so the travel is actually really
5:06
Speaker 1: similar for both these teams they're coming back from southern
5:08
Speaker 1: california i think both both teams did the same california
5:12
Speaker 1: trip but in reverse or i think one was at
5:15
Speaker 1: anaheim then san jose then la and the other one
5:18
Speaker 1: did the exact opposite and i keep talking about how
5:20
Speaker 1: i think it's weird that They don't just do LA
5:22
Speaker 1: and Anaheim while they're in Southern California and then play
5:25
Speaker 1: San Jose or play San Jose and then play the
5:28
Speaker 1: two Southern Cal teams. I don't know. I don't know
5:31
Speaker 1: why they do it this way, but whatever. Still kind
5:33
Speaker 1: of a weird spot for Ottawa to have to travel
5:36
Speaker 1: back from all that and still finish a road trip
5:39
Speaker 1: over here in Buffalo. Ottawa's still without Allmark as far
5:44
Speaker 1: as I know. He was supposed to miss about two weeks.
5:46
Speaker 1: We're coming up on that day, though, so I don't know.
5:49
Speaker 1: I'm going to have to look at the news. He's
5:51
Speaker 1: not going to be back yet, I wouldn't imagine, but
5:53
Speaker 1: we will see because he is their best goalie, so
5:55
Speaker 1: Ottawa is missing him right now. I'm still going to
5:58
Speaker 1: lean Ottawa in this game just because I would not
6:01
Speaker 1: want to play Buffalo in the return home spot. At
6:04
Speaker 1: least Ottawa, they're still away from the home distractions for
6:07
Speaker 1: another game. Buffalo, 67% of the tickets, 75% of the
6:10
Speaker 1: money on them. They dropped a little bit on the
6:14
Speaker 1: line from minus 136 down to minus 130 or something.
6:18
Speaker 1: The Vegas lean at this book here that starts with
6:23
Speaker 1: a C, the Sharp Vegas book right here. They do
6:25
Speaker 1: have a number lower than that, although you've got to
6:29
Speaker 1: kind of try to figure out how to read that
6:31
Speaker 1: because usually the favorite is just not going to be
6:34
Speaker 1: as heavily priced at those Sharp books because they don't
6:37
Speaker 1: cater to the public as much. And Favorites just generally
6:41
Speaker 1: have to get skewed higher because the public bets a
6:45
Speaker 1: lot of favorites. But I think that might be a
6:48
Speaker 1: legitimate lean there from that Vegas book, meaning that the
6:52
Speaker 1: sharp money may actually be on Ottawa in this one.
6:55
Speaker 1: That's the way I would look in that game, but
6:57
Speaker 1: it's not a strong opinion for me. Wager talk, red
7:03
Speaker 1: box or green box? Let me see. I don't even know.
7:09
Speaker 1: I don't think I've figured that out. I think it
7:11
Speaker 1: probably indicates the direction that that number just moved. I
7:14
Speaker 1: think it probably indicates that the data just updated and
7:17
Speaker 1: that number moved. I don't know in which direction that
7:22
Speaker 1: would mean, though. The ticket percentage on Buffalo, if it's green,
7:27
Speaker 1: I would imagine that probably means it went up. I
7:29
Speaker 1: don't know. Do they have a key on this? I
7:30
Speaker 1: never really actually– I never thought about that. I'm like,
7:33
Speaker 1: wait a minute. I'm going to have to look into it.
7:36
Speaker 1: I don't know. Technically, this is odds logic where this– uh,
7:42
Speaker 1: window comes from, uh, they have a, they do have
7:45
Speaker 1: a paid product, um, which is more fully functional than
7:49
Speaker 1: this is. Uh, so I'm gonna have to go look
7:51
Speaker 1: and see, and then maybe I can answer that. Actually,
7:53
Speaker 1: let me see if I can answer it right now.
7:55
Speaker 1: Hang on. Uh, color key. Let me see. Red indicates
8:03
Speaker 1: the line changed in the last two minutes. Yellow. Oh,
8:06
Speaker 1: it's just when, uh, when the line changed yellow means
8:09
Speaker 1: that change in the last three Green means it changed
8:12
Speaker 1: in the last five. This is just according to a
8:17
Speaker 1: Google AI telling me this, but it might be right
8:21
Speaker 1: because they're probably just getting that from OddsLogic's website. To me,
8:27
Speaker 1: that's not that helpful, especially because this screen doesn't update
8:30
Speaker 1: in real time. Their actual product updates in real time.
8:33
Speaker 1: This does not. This is a free tool. Still very useful, though.
8:38
Speaker 1: that is embedded on wager talks website which i do
8:42
Speaker 1: recommend wager talks content by the way i listen to
8:45
Speaker 1: a bunch of their guys including their uh co-founder marco
8:50
Speaker 1: d'angelo is the guy that i've learned the most from
8:52
Speaker 1: so i handicapped in a similar way to him it
8:54
Speaker 1: just it makes a lot of sense i think to
8:57
Speaker 1: me at least the way that he does the human
9:00
Speaker 1: behavior stuff the situational stuff not a lot of guys
9:02
Speaker 1: do it that way though um chicago and florida the
9:06
Speaker 1: next game which is part of a TNT True TV doubleheader.
9:09
Speaker 1: Chicago's lost three in a row here. They just lost
9:13
Speaker 1: by three to the Avalanche, but, you know, I mean,
9:15
Speaker 1: not really a surprise there. Florida just lost a three-game
9:18
Speaker 1: win streak. Still kind of an ugly loss for them
9:21
Speaker 1: against the Red Wings. They are staying at home. So
9:25
Speaker 1: a lot of times, if I think both teams are
9:27
Speaker 1: in bounce-back spots, I think, well, you know, the favorite,
9:30
Speaker 1: if they're going to be focused, the favorite should win.
9:32
Speaker 1: come in and win this game. But I don't know,
9:34
Speaker 1: because Florida does have Washington and Boston on deck, and
9:37
Speaker 1: those are going to be bigger games than this. And
9:39
Speaker 1: they did just go into Chicago on October 25th and
9:42
Speaker 1: beat them there. So this could be one of those
9:44
Speaker 1: quick road reversal spots where the team that lost at
9:48
Speaker 1: home gets a little bit more focus for this one
9:51
Speaker 1: and fixes more stuff. Granted, that was a close game, though.
9:54
Speaker 1: But we also know that Florida is going to be
9:56
Speaker 1: very heavily priced here. Chicago, odds make or have chicago
10:00
Speaker 1: is one of the lesser teams in the league and
10:02
Speaker 1: they have florida is one of the better teams in
10:04
Speaker 1: the league which i agree with uh florida minus 250
10:07
Speaker 1: on the money line here very very heavy price 90%
10:10
Speaker 1: of the tickets on Florida, 85% of the money. So
10:13
Speaker 1: Florida is a public side, less than the money on them.
10:16
Speaker 1: I would probably lean slightly in the direction of Chicago
10:20
Speaker 1: as a puck line, I guess, plus one and a half.
10:23
Speaker 1: Probably you can get a decent price on that if
10:25
Speaker 1: you really want to do it. I'm not recommending any
10:29
Speaker 1: of this as a play, but just my opinion on
10:31
Speaker 1: the game. TNT, True TV, the second game, the late
10:35
Speaker 1: game on the doubleheader is a California game, San Jose
10:38
Speaker 1: and LA. I believe both teams are staying in California
10:41
Speaker 1: for this. San Jose just lost at home to Calgary,
10:45
Speaker 1: which is not a great performance there. So it could
10:49
Speaker 1: be a potential bounce back spot, especially they get to
10:51
Speaker 1: leave home, you know, might help them focus on hockey more.
10:55
Speaker 1: The start of a road trip usually is a focus spot.
10:58
Speaker 1: And then for LA, they just lost at home, but
11:00
Speaker 1: it was kind of a, bigger game in a way
11:03
Speaker 1: against Buffalo who's a decent team and LA was coming
11:07
Speaker 1: off a pretty big performance against Ottawa the game before
11:09
Speaker 1: that where they beat them in a high scoring overtime
11:12
Speaker 1: game I think I'd rather have San Jose in this
11:16
Speaker 1: one although LA does have a few days off here
11:18
Speaker 1: but yeah you're gonna get San Jose as a fairly
11:21
Speaker 1: big underdog here and the money is agreeing with that
11:23
Speaker 1: with 60% of the tickets on LA 61% of the
11:24
Speaker 1: money on the Sharks and L.A. is about a minus
11:30
Speaker 1: 150 to minus 160 favorite here. Seems a little bit heavy.
11:34
Speaker 1: Like I expected the Sharks to take a little bit
11:37
Speaker 1: of another step forward this year with the young talent
11:40
Speaker 1: that they have there and even potentially sneak into the
11:43
Speaker 1: playoffs this year. I don't know if that's going to happen,
11:45
Speaker 1: but they're around 500 right now. But yeah, I think
11:48
Speaker 1: the Sharks might be a little bit undervalued. I would
11:50
Speaker 1: lean towards them in that one. Make a plus one
11:54
Speaker 1: puck line out of it maybe or I guess you
11:56
Speaker 1: could just fire on the money line. If you really
11:58
Speaker 1: want to do that one, the money seems to agree
12:00
Speaker 1: with that. Um, what do you mean? 92% of the
12:06
Speaker 1: money on the over in which game, Florida.
12:10
Speaker 3: Yeah.
12:10
Speaker 1: I mean, well, it says 89% of the tickets, 91%
12:13
Speaker 1: of the money. So that means the over is public
12:17
Speaker 1: and the, the number dropped a little bit. It opened
12:19
Speaker 1: at six, uh, juice to the under, and it looks
12:21
Speaker 1: like there's some five and a halves there. Um, juice
12:24
Speaker 1: to the over though which isn't a huge move but
12:27
Speaker 1: no i would not play the over in that game
12:29
Speaker 1: um i mean to me it just looks like the
12:33
Speaker 1: over is just public like um i mean i don't
12:36
Speaker 1: know you have to figure out like where is that
12:38
Speaker 1: money coming from though and hockey you know the money
12:41
Speaker 1: usually is not public money though so you know if
12:45
Speaker 1: there is a high cash percentage on a hockey game
12:48
Speaker 1: on one side Maybe that does indicate professional money. I
12:51
Speaker 1: guess you could maybe be seeing professional money and public
12:56
Speaker 1: money on and over here. I'm not sure the public
12:59
Speaker 1: is really getting much involved with these games, but the
13:03
Speaker 1: market read to me just makes that over look really public, though.
13:06
Speaker 1: I wouldn't do it based on the market read. If
13:10
Speaker 1: I had some situational angle that made it look good,
13:14
Speaker 1: then maybe. But I actually probably would lean under in
13:16
Speaker 1: that one because... Uh, both teams should show up focused there.
13:20
Speaker 1: They're both coming up bad losses. So, or kind of
13:24
Speaker 1: ugly loss. They both gave up five goals in their
13:26
Speaker 1: last game. So you got to think there's going to
13:28
Speaker 1: be more defensive focus out of both teams. So no,
13:31
Speaker 1: I mean, I would, I would prefer the under in
13:33
Speaker 1: that one, but I don't love hockey unders because, uh,
13:36
Speaker 1: empty net goals are so common now they just wreck
13:39
Speaker 1: those things. But, uh, yeah, that is not a game
13:41
Speaker 1: where I'd want to play an over though. Um, all right,
13:44
Speaker 1: let me see. Uh, um, Oh, we have one more
13:49
Speaker 1: hockey game. Calgary and Seattle. This is weird because even
13:52
Speaker 1: though it's early in the season, these teams are already
13:54
Speaker 1: playing for their fourth time against each other, and I
13:57
Speaker 1: believe this is the last time they play each other
14:00
Speaker 1: during the season. I don't think they're going to be
14:03
Speaker 1: playing each other in the playoffs. I think it's probably
14:06
Speaker 1: safe to assume at least one of these two teams
14:08
Speaker 1: is not going to make the playoffs. I'm kind of
14:10
Speaker 1: thinking neither will because I don't think they're good, but
14:13
Speaker 1: Seattle won the first two games of the series. One
14:16
Speaker 1: on the road, one at home by a 6-1 score,
14:19
Speaker 1: both of them. Now in their most recent game, they
14:22
Speaker 1: just lost in Calgary by almost the same score, 6-2.
14:25
Speaker 1: So Calgary flipped the script. That was way back on Friday.
14:30
Speaker 1: You could argue it's going to be a zigzag here
14:32
Speaker 1: now because a lot of times the team that does
14:34
Speaker 1: bad in that previous game, they figure out what went
14:37
Speaker 1: wrong and they fix it. Calgary did have more shots
14:40
Speaker 1: in the game. They were the way more physical team, hit-wise, defensively.
14:44
Speaker 1: Seattle did win the face-off battle, though, but yeah, I mean,
14:48
Speaker 1: it was a misleading result, even though Calgary probably played
14:51
Speaker 1: well enough to win the game. A 6-2 win is
14:53
Speaker 1: definitely a little bit misleading. No empty net goals or
14:56
Speaker 1: anything at the end, but maybe that means there is
14:59
Speaker 1: a little bit of... potential value looking at Seattle here
15:03
Speaker 1: just because it could maybe set up as the zigzag,
15:06
Speaker 1: but I think Calgary will want to still even the
15:09
Speaker 1: score here and finish the season series 2-2. Seattle's next
15:13
Speaker 1: game is against the New York Rangers, which I don't
15:16
Speaker 1: think is that big of a look ahead. Then they're
15:18
Speaker 1: going to have this weird crap coming up against Carolina.
15:21
Speaker 1: They have to play two games in Finland after that.
15:26
Speaker 1: Because all these leagues have to go international, man. That's
15:29
Speaker 1: a thing. NHL They have this Finland series now every
15:33
Speaker 1: year for the last couple of years. So that is
15:35
Speaker 1: going to be Carolina and Seattle, apparently. Saab, what's up, man?
15:40
Speaker 1: You have Bulls, Mavericks, Suns. Skipping NHL, I am skipping
15:46
Speaker 1: the NHL as well. I am on. One of those
15:49
Speaker 1: is my NBA play, one of the three. Maybe you
15:52
Speaker 1: can guess which one that it is. I'm not sure
15:54
Speaker 1: that I agree with all three of those. One of
15:56
Speaker 1: them I definitely do. You probably know which one, and
16:01
Speaker 1: it will be one of my plays. But, yes, what's up, man?
16:04
Speaker 1: All right. Yeah, this game, though, I don't know, man.
16:07
Speaker 1: I mean, the zigzag thing seems to tell me that
16:10
Speaker 1: I'd probably rather be on Seattle, but this money is
16:13
Speaker 1: coming in pretty heavy on Calgary. 76% of the tickets
16:16
Speaker 1: are on Seattle. Seattle will be a public side, and
16:19
Speaker 1: I don't think they're as good as their record. I
16:21
Speaker 1: would say that. I don't think either team is as
16:23
Speaker 1: good as their record looks, though. I still think Calgary's
16:25
Speaker 1: quite bad. And I think Seattle is just nowhere near
16:28
Speaker 1: as good as their record indicates. But we do have
16:31
Speaker 1: 55% of the cash on Calgary. Seattle did drop from
16:35
Speaker 1: minus 146 down to the minus 130 range or even
16:38
Speaker 1: below that. So, yeah, I mean, the market read is
16:44
Speaker 1: absolutely saying Calgary. But I slightly disagree with that. I'm
16:50
Speaker 1: leaning more towards the zigzag in that one and towards
16:53
Speaker 1: Seattle off of that misleading ugly loss to Calgary. I
16:58
Speaker 1: would lean towards them a little bit there. The Mavericks.
17:02
Speaker 1: You'll have to wait and see, man. 82% of the
17:09
Speaker 1: money on the under in the Calgary game. That is
17:12
Speaker 1: what it's saying, yes. To me, that does look like
17:14
Speaker 1: it's a strong indicator on the under. 53% of the tickets,
17:17
Speaker 1: 82% of the cash on the under. The public never
17:20
Speaker 1: plays unders at all, so I do consider that to
17:23
Speaker 1: be correct information. It looks like that is a professional
17:28
Speaker 1: opinion there, a professional side on the under in that game,
17:31
Speaker 1: which it makes sense. I mean, you could kind of
17:34
Speaker 1: argue for it because the last game saw eight goals scored,
17:37
Speaker 1: so a lot of times there will be a zigzag
17:40
Speaker 1: in the other direction, but Do I really want to
17:43
Speaker 1: play the under when these teams have scored seven goals
17:46
Speaker 1: or more against each other in every game that they've
17:48
Speaker 1: played against each other this year? I wouldn't want to,
17:51
Speaker 1: but these teams do have a lot of time off,
17:53
Speaker 1: so I think that could be part of the reason
17:55
Speaker 1: for that makes a decent argument for the under. The
17:59
Speaker 1: fact that these teams have a lot of time off,
18:00
Speaker 1: a lot of times that means the offenses might be
18:03
Speaker 1: a little bit out of rhythm and the defenses are
18:07
Speaker 1: going to come out rested and play better. typically so
18:10
Speaker 1: there is some argument to be had there for the
18:12
Speaker 1: under but yeah I mean the numbers they just are
18:17
Speaker 1: just straight up like these are just numbers that are
18:19
Speaker 1: coming from I'm assuming they're coming from like these books
18:23
Speaker 1: themselves and then they get sort of aggregated in some
18:26
Speaker 1: sort of way I don't really know what the I
18:28
Speaker 1: don't know exactly how these numbers are collected that would
18:33
Speaker 1: be something on you know odds logic's back end or
18:36
Speaker 1: whatever I don't know exactly how they're doing it but
18:39
Speaker 1: I use it as just kind of like a gauge
18:41
Speaker 1: pretty much. I'm not going to blindly make a play
18:43
Speaker 1: based on it. I've done it before, but usually I'm
18:46
Speaker 1: not going to. But I like it as a check,
18:48
Speaker 1: especially if I already have an opinion on a game,
18:52
Speaker 1: and then I look and I'm like, oh, sweet. It
18:53
Speaker 1: looks like the market numbers are agreeing with me. I
18:56
Speaker 1: consider that to be a good thing. Like, okay, that
18:59
Speaker 1: supports my play. That makes it stronger. Yeah, so that's
19:03
Speaker 1: kind of the way I look at it. You kind
19:05
Speaker 1: of have to, like, these numbers I would not, like, again,
19:09
Speaker 1: I just wouldn't look at them like blindly and you
19:10
Speaker 1: have to kind of interpret what they mean as well.
19:13
Speaker 1: Like it's going to depend on how high volume the
19:15
Speaker 1: game is. And like a lot of times, like, you know,
19:18
Speaker 1: in the football games and stuff, I'm looking at it.
19:20
Speaker 1: I'm like, there is absolutely no way that like this
19:23
Speaker 1: particular team is actually getting a high percentage of the tickets.
19:27
Speaker 1: You know what I mean? Cause I have usually have
19:28
Speaker 1: a pretty good gauge of the public's opinion. Uh, so
19:31
Speaker 1: I'll see like some games where the public is just Like,
19:34
Speaker 1: the ticket percentage on the screen says that it's way
19:37
Speaker 1: on one side, and I'm like, there's just no way, dude.
19:39
Speaker 1: I'm sorry. I've said it in the NBA, too. But also,
19:42
Speaker 1: this is the morning, remember? And uh I would keep
19:45
Speaker 1: I would keep looking at this screen throughout the day
19:48
Speaker 1: you know what I mean like and maybe not make
19:50
Speaker 1: these plays like immediately necessarily um If you're fading the public,
19:55
Speaker 1: it makes sense to wait, especially if it's in a
19:58
Speaker 1: public sport because you're probably not going to lose that
20:01
Speaker 1: number and you might get a better one. But in hockey,
20:04
Speaker 1: it might make sense to just make the play right
20:06
Speaker 1: away because there's no high volume in that. The public
20:10
Speaker 1: can't change the lines in hockey. The public really can
20:13
Speaker 1: only influence the lines in the NFL and big college
20:16
Speaker 1: football games, really, though. I don't know. I'm going off
20:20
Speaker 1: on a tangent here, but I don't know. Hopefully... Hopefully
20:22
Speaker 1: some of this is making sense, but yeah, I mean,
20:26
Speaker 1: I don't know where I was going with that, but yeah, like,
20:28
Speaker 1: you have to kind of just figure out, like, what
20:29
Speaker 1: these numbers actually mean, like, how much of the... like
20:34
Speaker 1: how much volume is on any of these particular games?
20:36
Speaker 1: You know what I mean? Like, is this really a
20:38
Speaker 1: public side, whatever? Like which bet is, is even getting
20:42
Speaker 1: this public action? You know what I mean? Like with Florida,
20:45
Speaker 1: like 90% of the tickets on Florida. Well, I don't
20:48
Speaker 1: think the public is actually laying a minus two 50
20:51
Speaker 1: money line. You know what I mean? So I don't
20:53
Speaker 1: know if that's like an aggregation of money line bets,
20:56
Speaker 1: spread bets, whatever. I'm not really sure exactly, but I
21:00
Speaker 1: just kind of, Still use that to kind of indicate, okay, yeah,
21:03
Speaker 1: that is a public side there. All right. NBA is
21:08
Speaker 1: where I'm going next, I think, yeah. Let me see here.
21:13
Speaker 1: First game up is Philadelphia-Detroit, which is the title of
21:17
Speaker 1: the show here, talking about that game. Huge game. It's
21:20
Speaker 1: on ESPN. ESPN is a doubleheader. Two pretty good games
21:23
Speaker 1: on ESPN. This one is obviously the game of the night, though.
21:27
Speaker 1: I mean, this is for first place in the Eastern Conference.
21:30
Speaker 1: Both teams have one loss. And by the way, Philadelphia's
21:33
Speaker 1: only loss on the season was to Detroit at home.
21:37
Speaker 1: So this is maybe a little bit more of a
21:39
Speaker 1: motivated spot for Philadelphia here because that was their one
21:42
Speaker 1: loss at home to Detroit.
21:44
Speaker 4: So.
21:45
Speaker 1: Both teams are absolutely going to get up for this,
21:47
Speaker 1: but Philly might read into, you know, they might like
21:50
Speaker 1: fix what went wrong in this game. Like they lost
21:52
Speaker 1: at home by 13 points. My lean was correct on
21:55
Speaker 1: this game, by the way. But you can see there
21:58
Speaker 1: is one pretty major outlier that happened in this game,
22:00
Speaker 1: which is Detroit hit 14 three-pointers in this game. And
22:05
Speaker 1: they're not even really a three-point shooting team. Philly only
22:08
Speaker 1: hit seven points. And Detroit hit 41% of their threes.
22:12
Speaker 1: Philly only hit 26%. So the three-pointers in this game
22:16
Speaker 1: were a major outlier. Detroit just got out to a
22:18
Speaker 1: big lead right at the beginning, and they just didn't
22:21
Speaker 1: surrender it because they're a good defense. But I would
22:23
Speaker 1: say that it is an outlier. Detroit had plus 21
22:27
Speaker 1: points from three-point range there. So you would expect there
22:30
Speaker 1: is going to be some regression from that. Detroit's not
22:33
Speaker 1: even a great– they don't even shoot that many threes typically. Like,
22:37
Speaker 1: I don't know, maybe it was just the way that
22:38
Speaker 1: Philly was defending. So I do see some points here
22:42
Speaker 1: where maybe this will be like a regression angle here
22:45
Speaker 1: and maybe the Sixers are going to be the right
22:47
Speaker 1: side here. But one counterpoint here is that Detroit dominated
22:51
Speaker 1: the rebound battle in this game and they did lose
22:54
Speaker 1: the turnover battle. So maybe at home, Detroit's going to
22:58
Speaker 1: clean that up. But if Detroit lost the turnover battle
23:01
Speaker 1: in this game and they still won the game, that's
23:03
Speaker 1: kind of an indictment of Philly in a way. Philly
23:06
Speaker 1: had more possessions and whatever, and they still couldn't get
23:09
Speaker 1: it done. But the rebounding does kind of indicate something.
23:13
Speaker 1: Detroit's dominating on the interior. That is kind of a
23:19
Speaker 1: strike against Philadelphia here. So what are we going to
23:22
Speaker 1: do with this game here? I mean, both teams are
23:25
Speaker 1: going to show up. Detroit's coming off a blowout win
23:27
Speaker 1: to the Hornets. They're technically returning home from the road.
23:30
Speaker 1: It was only a two-game road trip, though, so I'm
23:32
Speaker 1: not too concerned about that for Detroit. Obviously, they're going
23:35
Speaker 1: to get up for this game. I don't think focus
23:38
Speaker 1: is going to be a concern here. Only a two-game
23:40
Speaker 1: road trip where they didn't really go that far geographically,
23:43
Speaker 1: so that's fine. Hosting an ESPN game, whatever. They're not
23:48
Speaker 1: going to get distracted here. It was only a quick
23:50
Speaker 1: trip anyway. Philly's coming off a blowout win to the
23:52
Speaker 1: Bulls the other day. At home, now they're staying at home, right? No,
23:57
Speaker 1: they're going on the road. What am I saying? Yeah,
23:58
Speaker 1: this game's in Detroit, obviously, yeah. Philly is starting a
24:02
Speaker 1: road trip, though, which usually is a focus spot. Yeah,
24:06
Speaker 1: I mean, all that being said, I am going to
24:07
Speaker 1: lean towards Philly in this game, but the problem is
24:10
Speaker 1: they look like a public underdog here, and I do
24:13
Speaker 1: not want to be in a public underdog. Even though
24:16
Speaker 1: I do think that the game does, like, situationally, it
24:20
Speaker 1: kind of seems like Philly is the right side here.
24:23
Speaker 1: especially given that that first result they had against Detroit
24:26
Speaker 1: was a little bit of a misleading result. And that
24:29
Speaker 1: was Philly's only loss of the season so far. So
24:31
Speaker 1: they're definitely going to get up for this, but Philly
24:33
Speaker 1: does have 65% of the tickets, only 62% of the cash.
24:37
Speaker 1: And the odds makers are telling you these teams are
24:39
Speaker 1: pretty closely matched as Detroit is a two and a
24:41
Speaker 1: half point favorite here. The public's looking at this and
24:45
Speaker 1: they're on the Philadelphia hype train, man. The public likes
24:48
Speaker 1: Philly because they got the bigger names on their team. They're,
24:51
Speaker 1: Probably the better offense, even though Detroit is, I would say,
24:54
Speaker 1: the better defensive team here. I hate public underdogs. I
24:59
Speaker 1: really do. Like, it's a major red flag when you
25:01
Speaker 1: see the public on an underdog. Basically, they want the team.
25:06
Speaker 1: It's not even supposed to win the game. The other line,
25:09
Speaker 1: by the way, when they played in Philly, Philly was
25:12
Speaker 1: like a one-and-a-half point favorite, if I remember correctly, in
25:15
Speaker 1: that game, so... You don't get much for home court
25:18
Speaker 1: in the NBA. The home court advantage is very small
25:20
Speaker 1: in the NBA, so this line seems to be pretty
25:24
Speaker 1: much in line with that other one. I'm going to
25:27
Speaker 1: lean towards the Sixers slightly, though, although I kind of
25:30
Speaker 1: do also like the under in this game, though. The
25:33
Speaker 1: money seems to kind of agree with that. 76% of
25:36
Speaker 1: the tickets on the over, 57% of the cash on
25:38
Speaker 1: the over, so less actual money on the over kind
25:42
Speaker 1: of indicates that means the bigger bets are probably on
25:44
Speaker 1: the under here. going against where the ticket count is.
25:49
Speaker 1: The total's not high at all. It's like 219. So
25:53
Speaker 1: the odds maker's also telling you they think this will
25:55
Speaker 1: be a lower scoring game. Now, the lower scoring game
25:58
Speaker 1: probably does correlate towards the Pistons, though, because they want
26:01
Speaker 1: it to be an uglier low scoring game. They're the
26:03
Speaker 1: better defensive team. So I think the under is probably
26:06
Speaker 1: correlated to Detroit. But I like Philly, and I also
26:09
Speaker 1: like the under in this one. What can I do?
26:12
Speaker 1: The reason I like the under is because this is
26:13
Speaker 1: like a playoff atmosphere. type of game so I think
26:16
Speaker 1: both teams just tend to have more of a focus
26:18
Speaker 1: on defense in a game like this and the public
26:21
Speaker 1: has more of a tendency to want to play the
26:22
Speaker 1: over because oh it's two good teams they're going to
26:25
Speaker 1: score well no I mean the reason why these teams
26:28
Speaker 1: are good also has to do with the fact that
26:30
Speaker 1: they play defense too so you know and if it
26:33
Speaker 1: becomes like a hard fought game we could definitely see
26:36
Speaker 1: an under here and the other game went over of
26:38
Speaker 1: course I mean wait I think it did right was
26:40
Speaker 1: the final in the other one actually maybe it didn't
26:43
Speaker 1: hold on It was, what was it, 106.93 is what
26:48
Speaker 1: it was, actually, right? So that, yeah, so that landed, no,
26:53
Speaker 1: that did go under, yeah. So, yeah, that landed under
26:55
Speaker 1: the total, whatever it was, under this total. But, yeah,
26:58
Speaker 1: I think the under, again, makes sense in that one, though.
27:05
Speaker 1: I do stay away from props. I'm just not really
27:08
Speaker 1: a prop person. guy that's not i'm mostly a sides
27:11
Speaker 1: guy that's like obviously my specialty i focus on sides
27:15
Speaker 1: i do totals a lot in the uh in baseball
27:18
Speaker 1: uh i do pretty well with baseball totals totals in
27:20
Speaker 1: other sports i don't do a whole lot uh team
27:23
Speaker 1: totals you're talking about like goals for team yeah like
27:26
Speaker 1: team totals it's not really my thing but i will
27:30
Speaker 1: give out some opinions on team totals on this show
27:33
Speaker 1: uh they pretty they never make like my best bets
27:35
Speaker 1: card or anything though I don't know. It's just not
27:40
Speaker 1: totally my thing, but I do think I have somewhat
27:42
Speaker 1: of a grasp on it in some cases. Let's keep
27:46
Speaker 1: this going here. Too many NBA games. Atlanta and Washington.
27:51
Speaker 1: Washington just beat the Magic in their last game. Decent
27:54
Speaker 1: win for them on the road. I'm assuming that was
27:57
Speaker 1: an upset, even though the Magic have some injuries going
27:59
Speaker 1: on there. Atlanta just beat the Pacers on the road,
28:04
Speaker 1: which Atlanta, I assume, was probably favored. Yeah, Atlanta was
28:07
Speaker 1: a double digit favorite in that game and they almost
28:09
Speaker 1: lost the game. So that would actually have me leaning
28:13
Speaker 1: towards Atlanta because Atlanta actually had this game wrapped up
28:16
Speaker 1: pretty much. Atlanta had a big lead in this game
28:18
Speaker 1: and Indiana as a double digit underdog came all the
28:21
Speaker 1: way back. almost pulled off the double-digit upset, and Atlanta
28:25
Speaker 1: still escaped with the win. So I think after a
28:27
Speaker 1: game like that, you want to look towards the favorite
28:29
Speaker 1: that almost lost the game, right? And Atlanta had 23
28:33
Speaker 1: more field goal attempts in this game than the Pacers did,
28:35
Speaker 1: but they only shot... This was an insane game, dude.
28:38
Speaker 1: Look at all these outliers in this game. Atlanta only
28:41
Speaker 1: shot 39% from the field, which is.
28:44
Speaker 1: So they should shoot better this time. But then on
28:46
Speaker 1: the flip side of things, they hit 45% of their threes.
28:50
Speaker 1: More than half of their made field goals were from three.
28:52
Speaker 1: What are they, the Celtics? They hit 23 threes compared
28:57
Speaker 1: to Indiana's eight. And then to go back in the
29:01
Speaker 1: other direction, did I say Philly? I meant Indiana. Indiana
29:06
Speaker 1: had 23 free throw attempts in this game, and Atlanta
29:10
Speaker 1: only had eight. I've never seen so many outliers in
29:14
Speaker 1: a game, really. They're not all in one direction, either.
29:17
Speaker 1: But still, I'm going to simplify it. And just in general,
29:20
Speaker 1: when you have a big favorite almost lose the game,
29:22
Speaker 1: especially when they were actually playing better throughout the game
29:25
Speaker 1: and the final score looked... Atlanta pretty much dominated the
29:28
Speaker 1: majority of that game. They led 95% of it and
29:32
Speaker 1: had a double-digit lead throughout a lot of it. I
29:35
Speaker 1: think Atlanta is actually the right side here for those reasons.
29:38
Speaker 1: I think it's a... I think that put a scare
29:41
Speaker 1: into them. Washington is coming off what I believe is
29:43
Speaker 1: like a mild upset. I would rather have Atlanta in
29:46
Speaker 1: this one. The line did initially move from 1.5 to 2.5 here.
29:51
Speaker 1: It's bordering on 3, which is showing up at the
29:54
Speaker 1: Vegas Sharp outlets there.
29:55
Speaker 3: So....
29:57
Speaker 1: And when the sharp outlets are heavier on the favorite
30:00
Speaker 1: or the sharp lean is towards the favorite, I would
30:02
Speaker 1: kind of take note of that just because usually they're
30:06
Speaker 1: against that. Usually the underdog is getting the sharp lean there.
30:09
Speaker 1: That's not the case in this game, although we do
30:11
Speaker 1: see 58% of tickets and 69% of the cash on
30:14
Speaker 1: Washington here. So they look like they're getting the money
30:17
Speaker 1: as far as the percentage here. But I disagree with
30:21
Speaker 1: that slightly. I like Atlanta in that one. All right.
30:25
Speaker 1: Milwaukee and Boston. Don't really love the spot for the
30:29
Speaker 1: Celtics here. My Boston Celtics as they're coming off a
30:32
Speaker 1: tough game against Houston, although they didn't play particularly well,
30:35
Speaker 1: but that was a close game throughout a lot of it.
30:38
Speaker 1: And then Houston pulled away late, but that was only
30:41
Speaker 1: the Celtics second loss and it ended a five game
30:43
Speaker 1: win streak for the Celtics and they face a pretty
30:46
Speaker 1: easy schedule. So I don't like it, even though I
30:48
Speaker 1: do still think the Celtics are a good team. And
30:51
Speaker 1: one of the I think there's still like a top
30:54
Speaker 1: four team in the conference, but their schedule has been weak.
30:58
Speaker 1: They have one good win against the Knicks and their
31:00
Speaker 1: other games now don't these, you know, their schedule just
31:03
Speaker 1: doesn't look good at this point. There are other games
31:05
Speaker 1: that they played that were big games. They lost to
31:07
Speaker 1: Detroit and Houston, although granted they blew a 23 point
31:10
Speaker 1: lead in the Houston game and they probably, excuse me,
31:13
Speaker 1: the Detroit game, they probably should have won that one.
31:15
Speaker 1: But now the Celtics are returning home from the road and,
31:18
Speaker 1: They're playing a third game in four days, all in
31:20
Speaker 1: different cities. They're playing a fourth game in six days
31:22
Speaker 1: with travel between them all. And they're playing this horrendous
31:26
Speaker 1: Milwaukee team where I'm just not sure that the Celtics
31:30
Speaker 1: are really going to get up for this game. So
31:33
Speaker 1: I would be leaning towards Milwaukee, the really ugly 1-6
31:36
Speaker 1: Milwaukee Bucs. The Bucs are coming off an okay performance
31:40
Speaker 1: on the road at Minnesota. I know Anthony Edwards is out,
31:43
Speaker 1: but only losing by 12 at Minnesota is not really
31:46
Speaker 1: that bad of a result. Maybe Milwaukee... You know, we'll
31:49
Speaker 1: show something in this game. I would lean towards taking Milwaukee,
31:52
Speaker 1: plus 11.5 in this one. That's what the number is.
31:55
Speaker 1: The Celtics will be public. 74% of the tickets, 78%
31:59
Speaker 1: of the cash on them. I don't feel particularly strongly
32:02
Speaker 1: about that one, though. Not one of Saab's plays. Saab
32:06
Speaker 1: has a couple of games in that price range, but
32:09
Speaker 1: that's not one of them. Charlotte at Brooklyn. Charlotte just
32:14
Speaker 1: got annihilated by the Pistons in their last game, but
32:16
Speaker 1: that was a play I gave out. Wait, did I
32:18
Speaker 1: give that out? No, maybe I didn't. It's similar to
32:21
Speaker 1: another play that I gave out, which I think was
32:24
Speaker 1: against Indiana. I gave out a play against Indiana after
32:28
Speaker 1: Indiana almost beat the Sixers, but you can kind of
32:30
Speaker 1: explain why Charlotte got obliterated by the Pistons. I mean,
32:34
Speaker 1: the Pistons, first of all, they're good, but second of all,
32:37
Speaker 1: Charlotte had played a huge game the game before that
32:39
Speaker 1: against the Sixers and only lost by five. So it
32:42
Speaker 1: was just not a good spot for them against the
32:45
Speaker 1: Pistons there. So now going out on the road, maybe
32:47
Speaker 1: this will be a bounce back spot for them, even
32:49
Speaker 1: though Brooklyn usually a team you're not going to focus on.
32:52
Speaker 1: But with Charlotte coming off an ugly loss like that,
32:55
Speaker 1: I think maybe they will show up for a game here.
32:57
Speaker 1: Brooklyn is staying in New York, but they did have
33:00
Speaker 1: one of their bigger games against the Knicks, and they
33:02
Speaker 1: actually played that game fairly close. If you see, they
33:04
Speaker 1: lost by 13, but if you look at the way
33:06
Speaker 1: that game went, they were within like six points, probably
33:10
Speaker 1: with about, I would say maybe eight minutes to go
33:13
Speaker 1: or something like that. And then the Knicks made this
33:16
Speaker 1: fourth quarter run and pulled away. So it wasn't exactly
33:19
Speaker 1: a game that went to the wire, but Brooklyn was
33:21
Speaker 1: hanging around in that game for most of it. And
33:23
Speaker 1: it was a big game for Brooklyn. I mean, the
33:25
Speaker 1: Knicks are like their big brother in New York City.
33:28
Speaker 1: So they're kind of their biggest rival, I would say,
33:31
Speaker 1: if you want to call it that. Brooklyn coming off
33:33
Speaker 1: of that game, which is a bigger effort game. I
33:36
Speaker 1: would look towards the Hornets in this one. So there
33:38
Speaker 1: you go, Garrett. Garrett, I don't know if he's out
33:41
Speaker 1: there right now, but Charlotte has 61% of the tickets
33:44
Speaker 1: and 66% of the money on them. They've moved up
33:47
Speaker 1: from a three-point favorite to a three-and-a-half-point favorite for the
33:50
Speaker 1: most part here. So it looks like some money is
33:53
Speaker 1: agreeing with that and coming in on that side. So, yeah,
33:56
Speaker 1: that's the way I lean in that one as well.
33:58
Speaker 1: Charlotte minus the points in that one is the road
34:01
Speaker 1: favorite there. And the public might stay a little bit
34:05
Speaker 1: away from that, even though Brooklyn bad team, everybody knows
34:08
Speaker 1: that they're only a one win team. So the public
34:10
Speaker 1: will be fading Brooklyn, but they might still not really
34:14
Speaker 1: want to play on Charlotte as a favorite like that
34:16
Speaker 1: on the road because Charlotte's record is also bad, but
34:19
Speaker 1: they're definitely the better team in that one. Chicago and
34:22
Speaker 1: New York. This is for a, Sob here. I just
34:26
Speaker 1: mentioned the Knicks didn't play well against the Nets last
34:29
Speaker 1: time out. And you can explain why, because the Knicks
34:32
Speaker 1: were coming off a big game against the 76ers. The
34:37
Speaker 1: Knicks in their previous game, by the way, they almost
34:39
Speaker 1: lost to the Bulls. And if you remember, I gave
34:41
Speaker 1: out the Bulls as a play in Chicago on the
34:44
Speaker 1: show because the Knicks were coming off a monster win
34:46
Speaker 1: over the Pistons, kind of blew them out. And they
34:48
Speaker 1: had the Sixers coming up next. So I thought it
34:50
Speaker 1: was a sandwich spot. The Bulls led most of that
34:53
Speaker 1: game before the Knicks were finally able to escape that
34:56
Speaker 1: game with a win. And we still got the cover
34:58
Speaker 1: with the Bulls plus seven and a half on that one.
35:01
Speaker 1: So you can explain what happened there. I'm going to
35:04
Speaker 1: disagree with Saab in this game. I like the Knicks
35:06
Speaker 1: in this game. The Knicks are coming off a lackluster
35:09
Speaker 1: effort against the Nets where they're only winning by like
35:11
Speaker 1: five in the fourth quarter. It was a bad spot
35:14
Speaker 1: for them, so you can explain that. And the Knicks
35:16
Speaker 1: almost lost to the Bulls the last time they played them,
35:19
Speaker 1: which was not long ago. So the Knicks will take
35:21
Speaker 1: them more seriously after that. And the public is actually
35:24
Speaker 1: probably not going to be on the Knicks here. As
35:27
Speaker 1: bad as the Bulls are, do you think the public's
35:30
Speaker 1: going to like double digits with a three and four team?
35:32
Speaker 1: Probably they're not going to. The Bulls, Bulls are coming off.
35:37
Speaker 3: Yeah.
35:37
Speaker 1: I mean, they got pretty much blown out by these
35:39
Speaker 1: Sixers in their last game, but the Bulls are making
35:42
Speaker 1: this run of all these big road games here. Celtics, Sixers, Knicks.
35:46
Speaker 1: They have a day off between each one, but I
35:49
Speaker 1: would rather have the Knicks. You're going to get the
35:51
Speaker 1: better team in a focus spot here. Hold on. Let
35:53
Speaker 1: me see. Unless the Knicks have like some major game
35:56
Speaker 1: on deck. Even if they do, I still probably would
35:58
Speaker 1: agree with this. They do have Cleveland on deck. That
36:03
Speaker 1: is a bigger game than this, obviously, but I'm still
36:06
Speaker 1: going to lean towards laying it with the Knicks in
36:07
Speaker 1: this one. Knicks have 64% of the tickets, 69% of
36:11
Speaker 1: the cash on them. They are an 11.5-point favorite, 12-point
36:16
Speaker 1: favorite here. Not a whole lot to read into with
36:20
Speaker 1: these percentages here, but based on the situation, yeah, I
36:23
Speaker 1: would actually lay it with the Knicks in that one.
36:26
Speaker 1: so that would be my opinion on that game. I
36:28
Speaker 1: definitely do not want to take the Bulls in that one.
36:31
Speaker 1: Bulls is also a putrid defensive team, even though I
36:34
Speaker 1: know I took them in the other game against the
36:35
Speaker 1: Knicks because the spot was good, but the Bulls' defense
36:38
Speaker 1: is probably the worst in the entire league, so they're
36:42
Speaker 1: definitely a team that teams can blow out for sure,
36:45
Speaker 1: so that is the way I'm looking there in that one.
36:49
Speaker 1: Indiana and Memphis... A lot of people didn't like my
36:54
Speaker 1: opinion in the videos the other day when I said
36:57
Speaker 1: that I thought the Pelicans would cover against Memphis. Well, yeah,
37:01
Speaker 1: the Pelicans won the game outright. Memphis, you know, it
37:06
Speaker 1: just seemed like it was... I don't know. I forget
37:08
Speaker 1: exactly what my handicap was on that, but I think
37:10
Speaker 1: it was just that Memphis had faced a really easy schedule.
37:13
Speaker 1: I think that's really what it was. I'm like, this
37:16
Speaker 1: Memphis team, you know, they're fine, but they're not as
37:19
Speaker 1: good as their record indicates. But now they... took their
37:22
Speaker 1: first loss, you could make the argument they're going to
37:23
Speaker 1: be hung over here, right? Because I talk about when
37:26
Speaker 1: a team takes their first loss kind of late into
37:28
Speaker 1: the season, they're not really used to it yet, and
37:31
Speaker 1: they can kind of essentially lose that same game twice.
37:34
Speaker 1: It went into overtime on Monday. Now, the one thing
37:37
Speaker 1: that you could counter that with is, well, they just
37:39
Speaker 1: lost as a favorite, so they should bounce back. Yes,
37:42
Speaker 1: that is something that I do also say. When a
37:44
Speaker 1: team has a bad game and they lose as a favorite,
37:46
Speaker 1: a lot of times they bounce back. But in this case,
37:48
Speaker 1: I'm leaning against that because... They lost their undefeated status,
37:53
Speaker 1: which usually will actually hang a team over into the
37:55
Speaker 1: next game. The other problem is they got Oklahoma City
37:58
Speaker 1: on decks. That's a huge game, even though OKC is
38:01
Speaker 1: injured right now, whatever. That's still a big look-ahead spot there.
38:05
Speaker 1: So I'm going to be leaning towards the Pacers in
38:06
Speaker 1: this one. The Pacers are going to need to get
38:09
Speaker 1: some of their players back, though. Halliburton, I have no
38:12
Speaker 1: idea what his status is. He's not coming back yet.
38:14
Speaker 1: But the Pacers do have a bunch of guys that
38:16
Speaker 1: are game-time decisions here. So, you know, maybe... you could
38:21
Speaker 1: wait and see if those guys are going to play,
38:23
Speaker 1: but if you do, then you're not going to get
38:25
Speaker 1: as much line value on the Pacers. Probably if a
38:27
Speaker 1: bunch of their guys are coming back here, Pacers, the
38:30
Speaker 1: problem with the Pacers is they just played that insane
38:33
Speaker 1: game against the Hawks that I just went into. And
38:35
Speaker 1: that game just had so many weird outliers in it.
38:37
Speaker 1: And the Hawks should have won the game by more
38:40
Speaker 1: for the most part, really. So that has me hesitating
38:43
Speaker 1: to really want to play the Pacers here, but yeah, Yeah,
38:46
Speaker 1: I just think it's a pretty negative spot for the
38:49
Speaker 1: Grizzlies here, so I am going to lean towards the
38:51
Speaker 1: Pacers in this one. The Grizzlies look like they're getting
38:54
Speaker 1: the money, though. 62% of the tickets, 80% of the
38:57
Speaker 1: cash on them. Six and a half point favorite here
39:00
Speaker 1: now on them. I'm going to lean against it, but
39:03
Speaker 1: not really that strong of an opinion for me here
39:05
Speaker 1: on this one. That would be a slight opinion. Out
39:09
Speaker 1: of all the games I've talked about so far, I
39:11
Speaker 1: don't even know which one of these is my strongest opinion, really.
39:14
Speaker 1: I don't feel great about any of these games. I
39:18
Speaker 1: would say the Knicks, actually. Sorry, Saab. I think out
39:22
Speaker 1: of the games I've talked about so far, I think
39:24
Speaker 1: the Knicks are my strongest opinion. We're definitely in opposition
39:29
Speaker 1: on that one. one alright I'm going to talk about
39:33
Speaker 1: this next game then probably a hydration break hold on
39:35
Speaker 1: how many games do we have here I'm going to
39:38
Speaker 1: do it now because the next game is... Oh, no, wait.
39:40
Speaker 1: I'm going to talk about this next game, then I'll
39:42
Speaker 1: do it before the... The next game I'll talk about
39:44
Speaker 1: after that is big. The next two are actually kind
39:47
Speaker 1: of big, but I'll talk about this ugly Utah-New Orleans
39:50
Speaker 1: game here. New Orleans is coming off that upset of
39:52
Speaker 1: the Grizzlies, and maybe they'll be in a little bit
39:54
Speaker 1: of a letdown after that because that was a big
39:57
Speaker 1: win for them. They beat an undefeated team on the
39:59
Speaker 1: road in overtime. Nice upset. They have to return home
40:02
Speaker 1: from that. A quick trip, obviously, from Memphis to New Orleans,
40:05
Speaker 1: but still... New Orleans also has Minnesota on deck. Even
40:08
Speaker 1: though Minnesota is injured right now, they're still a good team.
40:12
Speaker 1: Even though the record doesn't really show it right now,
40:13
Speaker 1: that still could be a look ahead here. So this
40:16
Speaker 1: game does look a little bit sandwichy to me. Even
40:19
Speaker 1: though I don't know how much weight you really put
40:21
Speaker 1: into upsetting Memphis. It wasn't like a monumental upset or anything,
40:24
Speaker 1: but still an upset nonetheless. Possible overlook spot, but the
40:29
Speaker 1: only issue with that is that New Orleans did lose
40:32
Speaker 1: to Utah already, but it was in Utah, and I'm
40:35
Speaker 1: going to assume Utah was favored in this game. Utah
40:38
Speaker 1: was only a one-and-a-half-point favorite in this one, but it
40:40
Speaker 1: might have been because of some injuries because the line dropped.
40:43
Speaker 1: Utah would have been a bigger favorite, I think, if
40:44
Speaker 1: they were healthier in that game. So maybe it could
40:49
Speaker 1: swing the other way here. Utah might remember that as
40:52
Speaker 1: being a scare, like, oh, yeah, this New Orleans team
40:54
Speaker 1: scared us in Utah, so we have to take them seriously,
40:58
Speaker 1: you know, so I'm going to lean more towards the
41:00
Speaker 1: jazz in this one. I think the spots is not
41:02
Speaker 1: very good for new Orleans though. Again, upsetting an undefeated team.
41:05
Speaker 1: And then Minnesota on deck doesn't look that good to me.
41:09
Speaker 1: Utah's a one win team. Nobody's going to want to
41:11
Speaker 1: play on Utah here, but they face a pretty difficult schedule. Uh,
41:15
Speaker 1: they've lost to the Lakers. They lost to San Antonio twice,
41:18
Speaker 1: once in overtime. Um, The Portland Trailblazers, who have been
41:22
Speaker 1: good so far. Memphis twice, although I know Memphis, that
41:27
Speaker 1: was me saying Memphis had a weak schedule, yeah. But
41:31
Speaker 1: the Jazz, they're probably a little bit better than the
41:33
Speaker 1: record looks, and they've had some injuries going on here, too.
41:36
Speaker 1: Jazz just got blown out by San Antonio. I think
41:40
Speaker 1: I'd rather be on Utah in this one, yeah. Nobody's
41:43
Speaker 1: going to want them either as a one-win team. People
41:45
Speaker 1: will put some weight probably into New Orleans beating Memphis,
41:48
Speaker 1: although the money looks like it is coming into New Orleans,
41:51
Speaker 1: but I don't agree with it. 61% of the tickets,
41:54
Speaker 1: 78% of the cash on them. Five, five-and-a-half-point favorite there.
41:58
Speaker 1: I'm leaning towards taking the points with Utah there, though.
42:01
Speaker 1: But again, not a strong opinion, so we have not
42:03
Speaker 1: gotten to my play yet. And I disagree with Saab's
42:06
Speaker 1: Bulls play. I'm going to take a hydration break. I'll
42:09
Speaker 1: be back. I'm going to finish the rest of the
42:11
Speaker 1: NBA off, and then I'm going to try to sort
42:14
Speaker 1: of rapid-fire a couple of the college basketball games, and
42:17
Speaker 1: then I do have a college football play, so you
42:19
Speaker 1: can stay tuned for that in the Maction. We get
42:22
Speaker 1: Maction two days in a row for college football. I'll
42:25
Speaker 1: be back in a second.
42:27
Speaker 4: We'll be right back. Thank you. I'm going to show
43:48
Speaker 4: you how to do it. I'll show you how to
43:58
Speaker 4: do it.
44:31
Speaker 1: What's going on here? What? I don't know what that was. Alright,
44:34
Speaker 1: next game up is Cleveland-Oklahoma City. Yeah, this is a
44:41
Speaker 1: fairly big game. Oklahoma City, we know they're injured right now.
44:44
Speaker 1: Oklahoma City did just go into Cleveland and beat them. So,
44:48
Speaker 1: the question becomes, is this going to be a zigzag
44:51
Speaker 1: spot of some kind? Cleveland was actually, I think, like
44:53
Speaker 1: a four and a half point favorite in that game.
44:56
Speaker 1: When the game went off, yeah, so... Little bit of
44:58
Speaker 1: an upset there for Oklahoma City, which I did lean
45:02
Speaker 1: towards OKC in that game. I don't remember the reasoning
45:04
Speaker 1: behind it. The game was pretty close all around statistically.
45:10
Speaker 1: Oklahoma City did win the rebound battle. They led the
45:12
Speaker 1: majority of the game, so there was all that. The
45:14
Speaker 1: big outlier that I see here is Cleveland missed a
45:17
Speaker 1: ton of free throws. They missed almost half of their
45:20
Speaker 1: free throws. 58% from the free throw line. No NBA
45:24
Speaker 1: team shoots that badly at the free throw line consistently, so...
45:28
Speaker 1: That is an argument for Cleveland to maybe zigzag this
45:32
Speaker 1: thing and maybe come back and actually get this game here,
45:35
Speaker 1: even though they're having to go out on the road
45:38
Speaker 1: this time. We know Oklahoma City's not healthy right now.
45:40
Speaker 1: They've got some fairly serious injury concerns here with Holmgren
45:45
Speaker 1: being out for quite a while, Jalen Williams. That's like
45:48
Speaker 1: two of their starters are out, along with a couple
45:50
Speaker 1: of their role players being out. You know, both teams
45:55
Speaker 1: are probably going to get up for this game, so
45:56
Speaker 1: I don't know if I care about any sort of
45:58
Speaker 1: look ahead here or anything like that. I'm going to
46:00
Speaker 1: lean towards Cleveland, though, I would say. The line looks
46:03
Speaker 1: like it's shifted quite a bit as well, from Cleveland
46:07
Speaker 1: being a 4.5-point favorite to now OKC being 2.5 at home.
46:11
Speaker 1: And I know Oklahoma City at home, they're really good. Typically,
46:14
Speaker 1: they're really good at home, and they're like a covering
46:16
Speaker 1: machine at home, so I don't really want to be
46:18
Speaker 1: on them either, but usually they're a much bigger favorite
46:22
Speaker 1: than this. at home, right? And this is due to
46:25
Speaker 1: injuries and the fact that Cleveland does get respect in
46:28
Speaker 1: the market and they are a pretty good team.
46:30
Speaker 2: Uh, okay.
46:30
Speaker 1: See is definitely the better defensive team, but yeah, I'm
46:33
Speaker 1: going to lean towards Cleveland here. I think this is
46:36
Speaker 1: a potential zigzag here for them here where they fix
46:39
Speaker 1: some things that went wrong. I actually think that if
46:41
Speaker 1: you think the four and a half was accurate on Cleveland,
46:43
Speaker 1: which maybe it really wasn't even so though, this line
46:47
Speaker 1: seems to have moved a little bit too much in
46:49
Speaker 1: the OKC direction. Um, after that game, like, you know,
46:54
Speaker 1: you don't get that much for home court in the NBA.
46:57
Speaker 1: And I don't know if maybe there, if there's like,
46:59
Speaker 1: I don't know, is there any sort of personnel change here?
47:01
Speaker 1: Does Cleveland have an injury? Hold on. Let me see. No,
47:06
Speaker 1: not really. We already, we already know about OKC's like
47:10
Speaker 1: boatload of injuries. So that's not changing here. The other
47:14
Speaker 1: Jalen Williams is also injured right now. Game time decision.
47:18
Speaker 1: But yeah, I'll lean towards Cleveland here. The money does
47:21
Speaker 1: agree with this. 62% of the tickets are on OKC,
47:25
Speaker 1: 55% of the cash on Cleveland. You're getting them at
47:28
Speaker 1: plus 3.5 now after the line moved up from 2,
47:31
Speaker 1: so it's even crazier than 2.5. It's 3.5. Public not
47:36
Speaker 1: phased by that, though, and they're still on OKC, but
47:40
Speaker 1: this is not the absolutely dominant OKC team right now
47:45
Speaker 1: that we're used to. They're just too injured. And, yeah,
47:47
Speaker 1: the spot seems to favor Cleveland to me, so that's
47:49
Speaker 1: the way I'm going to lean there. Minnesota at Houston.
47:53
Speaker 1: The big thing here is Houston's coming off a huge
47:55
Speaker 1: win over the Celtics, and that was on the heels
47:57
Speaker 1: of a huge win over the Thunder. So can Houston
48:01
Speaker 1: really sustain all this? And now they're playing a Minnesota
48:03
Speaker 1: team that doesn't have their best player right now, A.E.
48:07
Speaker 1: I think this could be a letdown spot for Houston.
48:09
Speaker 1: Those are two huge wins for them. I don't know
48:12
Speaker 1: if they're going to have enough left in the tank, actually,
48:14
Speaker 1: to get this thing done, and you know they're going
48:15
Speaker 1: to be a favorite again here at home. They only
48:18
Speaker 1: have Phoenix on deck, which is not a big deal,
48:20
Speaker 1: but I think I'm going to lean towards Minnesota on
48:22
Speaker 1: this one. Minnesota, they're coming off a win against the Bucs.
48:27
Speaker 1: I mean, a fine win that you're not going to
48:30
Speaker 1: get overconfident about or whatever. Going back out on the
48:33
Speaker 1: road here, Minnesota, yeah, I mean, I think Minnesota still
48:37
Speaker 1: might be a little better than the record would indicate,
48:39
Speaker 1: even though I know their best player is out But, yeah,
48:43
Speaker 1: I would lean towards Minnesota here. Houston's a 7.5-point favorite.
48:48
Speaker 1: It's not a high total. Houston, more of a defensive
48:51
Speaker 1: team typically. So you're going to get points with a
48:54
Speaker 1: fairly low total here around 220. 51% of the tickets
48:57
Speaker 1: and 52% of the cash on Minnesota. There's not much
49:01
Speaker 1: to read into there. Those percentages don't really mean much
49:04
Speaker 1: of anything. But, yeah, based on the situation, I would
49:07
Speaker 1: prefer to take the points with the T-wolves in that one.
49:11
Speaker 1: Toronto at Denver Toronto just beat the Clippers now they're
49:15
Speaker 1: traveling into elevation here after playing two games in LA
49:18
Speaker 1: and they played pretty tough against the lakers and that
49:21
Speaker 1: they made a huge comeback against the lakers is what
49:24
Speaker 1: that was and then toronto didn't have any sort of
49:26
Speaker 1: hangover after that and they still beat the clippers uh
49:29
Speaker 1: and i think they probably still covered this they won
49:32
Speaker 1: by seven yeah they barely did but they did cover
49:35
Speaker 1: so They didn't really have a hangover there, but now
49:37
Speaker 1: they have to go into elevation, face the Nuggets, who
49:41
Speaker 1: I know the Nuggets are sitting at 500, but this
49:43
Speaker 1: Nuggets team, I still think they're a very dangerous team, man.
49:46
Speaker 1: And Toronto's playing a third game in four days. Not
49:49
Speaker 1: all in different cities because they stayed in L.A. for
49:51
Speaker 1: two games, but still three games in four days is
49:53
Speaker 1: not that easy to do. uh, Denver coming off a
49:57
Speaker 1: loss as a favorite to the trailblazers. And people were
50:00
Speaker 1: really giving me shit about that one after the fact,
50:02
Speaker 1: cause I liked Denver in that one, but look at
50:04
Speaker 1: how this game played out, man. Denver led for 73%
50:07
Speaker 1: of the game. Denver was winning.
50:09
Speaker 3: Yeah.
50:10
Speaker 1: The majority of the game, they had a huge lead
50:12
Speaker 1: throughout the entirety of the first half into the third quarter, uh,
50:16
Speaker 1: throughout the third quarter, they were still in the lead
50:18
Speaker 1: for most of it. And yeah, they fell flat and
50:20
Speaker 1: they had a bad fourth quarter. Um, There was a
50:24
Speaker 1: huge outlier in this game, too, which is that Portland
50:27
Speaker 1: had a ton of threes. They were plus 18 from
50:32
Speaker 1: three-point range there. So that was a little bit of
50:34
Speaker 1: an outlier. So there may be a three-point regression that
50:41
Speaker 1: goes on here this time. Although I think some of
50:43
Speaker 1: it is just that Portland takes more threes than Denver does, though.
50:46
Speaker 1: So that came into effect here. The one indictment, though,
50:50
Speaker 1: on Denver is that Portland completely out-rebounded them. It's like, well...
50:54
Speaker 1: Who does Portland have that's getting all these rebounds? I
50:57
Speaker 1: don't know. You're out-rebounding Jokic here and whatever? I don't know, man.
51:01
Speaker 1: But still, I do think that generally, though, Denver was
51:05
Speaker 1: better in this game than it appeared on the scoreboard.
51:08
Speaker 1: Denver staying at home, coming off what's kind of an
51:11
Speaker 1: ugly-ish loss, I would say, even though it was against
51:13
Speaker 1: a Blazers team that does have a good record. So
51:16
Speaker 1: I guess you could make the argument it could be
51:17
Speaker 1: a hangover and that that was a big game. The
51:20
Speaker 1: other thing you have to be aware of is Denver
51:22
Speaker 1: does have this international game up next because of course
51:25
Speaker 1: they do which i believe is the mexico city game
51:29
Speaker 1: that the nba has been doing uh it's going to
51:31
Speaker 1: be against indiana though like do you really look ahead
51:33
Speaker 1: to a game against indiana i mean it is a
51:36
Speaker 1: little bit bigger because it's um the mexico city game
51:39
Speaker 1: you got to travel but i think i'd still prefer
51:42
Speaker 1: the nuggets in this game um yeah like i think
51:46
Speaker 1: they they're in the better travel position here just staying
51:49
Speaker 1: at home here coming off a loss denver is getting
51:51
Speaker 1: the money here 66 of the tickets 75 of the
51:54
Speaker 1: cash they open five and a half and they're down
51:57
Speaker 1: to four and a half here but i don't know
51:59
Speaker 1: um it's hard to really gauge the market on this
52:02
Speaker 1: one as well but it does look like some of
52:03
Speaker 1: the real money may be coming in on the denver
52:05
Speaker 1: side but maybe that's biasing me a little bit because
52:08
Speaker 1: i already agree with that side and maybe i'm seeing
52:11
Speaker 1: what i want to see from those percentages there but
52:14
Speaker 1: yeah i mean i don't know i lean slightly towards
52:15
Speaker 1: denver in that one and now we get to it
52:18
Speaker 1: man um This is going to be my play. Saba
52:22
Speaker 1: did not call it correctly. We're going to take the
52:25
Speaker 1: Phoenix Suns plus 3.5. I told you this was really ugly,
52:29
Speaker 1: and yeah, it is really ugly. It's Portland at Phoenix here. Yeah,
52:33
Speaker 1: we're taking a 1-4 team against a 5-1 team that's
52:37
Speaker 1: also 4-0 on the road. Yep. We're going to do it.
52:41
Speaker 1: I think this is the right spot to do it.
52:43
Speaker 1: I think this is a very strong spot to do it.
52:45
Speaker 1: I think Phoenix is not as bad as their 1-4
52:47
Speaker 1: record makes them look. It looks way too easy to
52:50
Speaker 1: lay 3.5 with Portland, doesn't it? How could you look
52:54
Speaker 1: at this and think any other way? If you're a
52:55
Speaker 1: public better, oh my God, a 5-1 team that has
52:58
Speaker 1: no losses on the road is laying only 3.5 against
53:02
Speaker 1: a one-win team. It looks so easy to play Portland here.
53:07
Speaker 1: Way too easy. So, yeah, that is not what we're
53:09
Speaker 1: going to do. We're going to take the... Phoenix Suns here.
53:13
Speaker 1: Portland is coming off upsetting Denver, like I said, and
53:17
Speaker 1: there were some things that were misleading about it, you know,
53:19
Speaker 1: the three-pointers and whatever. They just won two straight games
53:22
Speaker 1: in elevation. Beating Denver is still a big deal because
53:25
Speaker 1: Denver is one of the better teams in this conference.
53:27
Speaker 1: That's been the case for a while. You just beat
53:29
Speaker 1: Jokic and whatever. Now you're coming off that game, and
53:32
Speaker 1: you've got this lowly Phoenix team, which, by the way,
53:35
Speaker 1: Portland is going to have even more of a tendency
53:37
Speaker 1: to overlook Phoenix because they opened their season against Phoenix
53:40
Speaker 1: last And they beat them by 41 points in Portland.
53:43
Speaker 1: So do you think Portland is going to take Phoenix
53:46
Speaker 1: seriously at all? No. They're going to look right past Phoenix.
53:50
Speaker 1: I mean, not only is Phoenix a one-win team right
53:53
Speaker 1: now and not playing well, but let me fix my
53:56
Speaker 1: camera here. Portland... Yeah, annihilated them to open the season.
54:00
Speaker 1: So this is ridiculous. They're not going to pay any
54:02
Speaker 1: attention to Phoenix here. And up next, they've got to
54:04
Speaker 1: play the L.A. Lakers. Then they play the Spurs. The
54:08
Speaker 1: Lakers is an Amazon Prime game, by the way. And
54:10
Speaker 1: then after those two games, they play OKC twice. So
54:13
Speaker 1: they have four huge games on deck after this. This
54:16
Speaker 1: is the definition of a sandwich spot to me here. So, yeah,
54:20
Speaker 1: horrible spot for Portland here. Really, really bad. For Phoenix...
54:26
Speaker 1: They just lost at Golden State. They played it close, but,
54:29
Speaker 1: you know, this Golden State team, they've started to win, but,
54:32
Speaker 1: you know, this wasn't exactly like a big game, I
54:35
Speaker 1: wouldn't say. You know, what was, hold on, how big
54:39
Speaker 1: of a favorite was Golden State here? Yeah, they're only
54:41
Speaker 1: two and a half point favorite. So it's not like Phoenix,
54:43
Speaker 1: you know, played tough against a huge favorite or anything
54:47
Speaker 1: like that. Like Phoenix was not that big of an
54:48
Speaker 1: underdog there. So Phoenix coming off another loss. getting to
54:52
Speaker 1: come back home from that. I think it's an easier
54:55
Speaker 1: spot for them to just return back home from San
54:57
Speaker 1: Francisco here. Bounce back spot possibly. They've lost three in
55:00
Speaker 1: a row, but the first two of those losses were
55:03
Speaker 1: by 11 at Oklahoma City and by seven against Denver.
55:07
Speaker 1: I mean, are those really bad losses? I would say no,
55:10
Speaker 1: they are not. So Phoenix, you know, they haven't really
55:13
Speaker 1: faced that easy of a schedule so far, really. So
55:16
Speaker 1: I think Phoenix is a little bit under the radar
55:18
Speaker 1: right now. The odds makers are telling you that Portland
55:20
Speaker 1: is a bit overrated right now. and Phoenix is a
55:22
Speaker 1: little bit underrated based on the line they put out there.
55:26
Speaker 1: You know, I mean, Phoenix still has good players on
55:28
Speaker 1: this roster, so I think they have the ability to
55:31
Speaker 1: do this, and it is revenge, again, for Phoenix, sort of. Again,
55:37
Speaker 1: revenge is overstated, but really what I think it is
55:40
Speaker 1: is after that blowout loss, it's going to be that
55:43
Speaker 1: to Portland in their opener, I mean, it's going to
55:44
Speaker 1: be that Phoenix... can make adjustments and fix what went
55:48
Speaker 1: wrong in that game, and Portland will just not take
55:50
Speaker 1: them seriously at all. That's what the handicap really is here.
55:56
Speaker 1: And there's another thing that you could look at here,
55:58
Speaker 1: the common opponent that these teams have, which is Denver.
56:01
Speaker 1: People are going to look at this and see, oh,
56:03
Speaker 1: Phoenix lost at home to Denver. Portland just went on
56:05
Speaker 1: the road and beat Denver. So obviously Portland's going to
56:08
Speaker 1: win this game. That's what the public is going to do.
56:11
Speaker 1: Look at the recent common opponents. You can't handicap that way.
56:14
Speaker 1: You've got to look at the individual spot, the individual situation,
56:18
Speaker 1: and this is a horrendous spot for Portland. Portland looks public.
56:22
Speaker 1: They have 71% of the tickets, 77% of the cash
56:25
Speaker 1: for now, but I am expecting that by the time
56:28
Speaker 1: this game comes around, the market read is going to
56:30
Speaker 1: come in line with what I'm thinking because I think
56:32
Speaker 1: this is a strong situation. It just looks way, way,
56:36
Speaker 1: way too easy to take Portland, so the line does
56:38
Speaker 1: look very sus here. We're going to take the Phoenix
56:42
Speaker 1: Suns plus the three and a half in that one.
56:45
Speaker 1: And you probably don't even have to take it now.
56:46
Speaker 1: I mean, if you wait, you might even get a
56:48
Speaker 1: little bit of a better number on that. Probably not
56:50
Speaker 1: by much, but I guess it depends if and when
56:53
Speaker 1: the professionals come in and if they are able to
56:55
Speaker 1: hammer that number down a bit. Yes, obviously I prefer
57:01
Speaker 1: three and a half instead of two and a half.
57:03
Speaker 1: It's a better number. What price do you have to
57:08
Speaker 1: pay on the two and a half? What are we... Like,
57:12
Speaker 1: your book is probably trying to screw you. Like, they're
57:14
Speaker 1: probably going to make you, like, pay. Well, yeah, what
57:16
Speaker 1: are they making you pay? Actually, no, they're probably going
57:18
Speaker 1: to make you pay, like, less for that, right? A
57:20
Speaker 1: two and a half? I still might do it. I mean,
57:25
Speaker 1: I like the Phoenix side. And three is not as
57:28
Speaker 1: key in basketball as it is in football because you
57:30
Speaker 1: don't have field goals here. But every point matters in that, like, two, three, four.
57:36
Speaker 1: You know, every point, half point matters a bit in basketball.
57:40
Speaker 1: I still like it, though. I mean, I think I
57:43
Speaker 1: would still do it, but maybe. Yeah, so basically they're
57:46
Speaker 1: trying to screw you. It's at plus money, so they
57:48
Speaker 1: don't want to offer you the better number, really. And,
57:51
Speaker 1: you know, of course, at the better number, you have
57:54
Speaker 1: to pay for it. Like, it's, you know, minus 110
57:57
Speaker 1: or whatever. Yeah, I mean, you're getting it at even money. Obviously,
58:03
Speaker 1: my recommendation would be to get more books. I don't
58:06
Speaker 1: know what state you're in or whatever. I would get
58:09
Speaker 1: accounts at as many books as possible because you've got
58:12
Speaker 1: a line shop, man. That's the thing. Having as many
58:15
Speaker 1: books as possible is the best thing to do because
58:18
Speaker 1: then you can find better lines more easily. You can
58:22
Speaker 1: shop around for which book has the best line. Then,
58:25
Speaker 1: of course, some books are going to limit you if
58:27
Speaker 1: you start winning. Books are going to crush you, and
58:29
Speaker 1: they're going to limit you because they're not really allowed
58:31
Speaker 1: to ban you, the legal books. They can limit you
58:35
Speaker 1: to like a dollar per bet, basically, and get away
58:37
Speaker 1: with it, which is bullshit. But then, you know, that's
58:40
Speaker 1: another reason that you need to have more outs. You
58:42
Speaker 1: can play at books that don't have you limited. Yeah,
58:45
Speaker 1: it's all fucking bullshit, but yeah. I mean, I like
58:48
Speaker 1: the Phoenix side quite a bit, so yeah, I mean,
58:50
Speaker 1: I would probably still do it. at 2.5, but 3.5
58:53
Speaker 1: is obviously better. Dallas at San Antonio is the later
58:58
Speaker 1: ESPN game here. San Antonio is on a, whatever this is,
59:03
Speaker 1: five-game win streak here. They've kind of faced a somewhat
59:07
Speaker 1: easy schedule since their first two games, which they lost by...
59:10
Speaker 1: of their first two games against a healthy OKC team,
59:13
Speaker 1: which was the first NBA winner I gave out on
59:15
Speaker 1: the show of the season. Then they lost a close
59:17
Speaker 1: game to Houston. They've won every game since then, but
59:19
Speaker 1: most of these games have been against pretty bad teams,
59:22
Speaker 1: except Dallas has been playing well, and that was one
59:25
Speaker 1: of their wins. But other than that, you know, Sacramento,
59:28
Speaker 1: Utah in overtime on the road, though. Utah again, and
59:31
Speaker 1: Minnesota without Anthony Edwards. I'm not going to say San
59:35
Speaker 1: Antonio is a bad team. Obviously, I think they're the
59:37
Speaker 1: best team in the league, so obviously I'm not going
59:39
Speaker 1: to say that, but they're not fully battle-tested right now.
59:44
Speaker 1: Dallas also has a little bit of revenge motive here
59:47
Speaker 1: maybe because this is Dallas' only unavenged loss at this point,
59:51
Speaker 1: and because San Antonio already went into Dallas and beat
59:54
Speaker 1: them by 16, maybe they won't take them as seriously,
59:57
Speaker 1: but this isn't really an unfocused spot for San Antonio otherwise, though.
1:00:03
Speaker 1: They just beat Utah, which is whatever. And then they
1:00:06
Speaker 1: have the Kings on deck. They're not going to be
1:00:07
Speaker 1: looking ahead to that. And this is a home ESPN
1:00:10
Speaker 1: game against a Texas rival. So I think the Spurs
1:00:14
Speaker 1: will still show up for this. I am still going
1:00:16
Speaker 1: to be leaning slightly towards Dallas here, though. So I
1:00:18
Speaker 1: do agree with Saab on this one. But not a
1:00:22
Speaker 1: strong opinion for me. Dallas... They are in a bounce
1:00:25
Speaker 1: back spot because they're coming off that ugly loss to
1:00:27
Speaker 1: the Kings the other day, which I gave out on
1:00:28
Speaker 1: the show as a winner. Kings with their first win
1:00:31
Speaker 1: of the season outright. We didn't even need that, but
1:00:34
Speaker 1: they got it done anyway. We only needed them to
1:00:36
Speaker 1: cover there. It was simple, man. Dallas had beaten Oklahoma
1:00:41
Speaker 1: City and Houston, and they had San Antonio on deck,
1:00:43
Speaker 1: so that was such an obvious, huge sandwich spot that, yeah,
1:00:47
Speaker 1: we had to fade Dallas in that one, and we
1:00:49
Speaker 1: got it right, but now Dallas should be in a
1:00:52
Speaker 1: refocused spot. They should be in a bounce-back spot off
1:00:54
Speaker 1: of that horrendous loss as a double-digit favorite there. They're
1:00:58
Speaker 1: playing the only team that's delivered them a loss that's
1:01:01
Speaker 1: unavenged right now, besides now Sacramento, of course. But, of course,
1:01:04
Speaker 1: the next time Dallas plays Sacramento, they'll beat them most likely,
1:01:07
Speaker 1: so whatever. But their other two losses were to Houston
1:01:10
Speaker 1: and San Antonio, and they already got revenge against Houston.
1:01:14
Speaker 1: They're going to be showing up for this game against
1:01:16
Speaker 1: San Antonio. I'm not going to say Dallas is going
1:01:18
Speaker 1: to win this game because that would be a pretty
1:01:20
Speaker 1: tall order for them, and I don't think Dallas is
1:01:23
Speaker 1: as good as their record might indicate that they are.
1:01:25
Speaker 1: They're playing some decent basketball, though, and this looks like
1:01:28
Speaker 1: a spot where they can cover this thing, at least,
1:01:30
Speaker 1: and hang around, even though the spot's not bad for
1:01:33
Speaker 1: San Antonio, though. 56% of the tickets, 62% of the
1:01:37
Speaker 1: cash on Dallas. The money may come in on Dallas.
1:01:41
Speaker 1: I do think mostly what it is is it's a
1:01:42
Speaker 1: bounce-back spot for Dallas. You're not going to get value
1:01:46
Speaker 1: on San Antonio because everybody knows how good they are.
1:01:48
Speaker 1: So they're laying 12 and a half. You know that
1:01:50
Speaker 1: line's going to be a little bit inflated on the
1:01:53
Speaker 1: Spurs side there, and it's not a high total. The
1:01:55
Speaker 1: total's in the 220s, so it's expected to be a
1:01:57
Speaker 1: somewhat lower scoring game. So taking double digits makes a
1:02:01
Speaker 1: little bit more sense in a game with a low
1:02:03
Speaker 1: total like that. So, yeah, I agree. I would lean
1:02:05
Speaker 1: towards Dallas plus the points there. You could pick a
1:02:10
Speaker 1: different– yeah, that's true. There are like alternate lines on
1:02:13
Speaker 1: some of these, yeah. You have, yeah, the HR and
1:02:16
Speaker 1: the F book. So wait, are you in Florida? Is
1:02:21
Speaker 1: that what you're saying, Florida? I know Florida pretty much
1:02:24
Speaker 1: only has HR available, but they might have that F
1:02:29
Speaker 1: book available too. The F book, this is what I
1:02:33
Speaker 1: think about them basically. They're merchandise at least, but I
1:02:37
Speaker 1: get you. Dude, that's not a good sign that based
1:02:40
Speaker 1: on the books you have available, I knew what state
1:02:42
Speaker 1: you were in. Oh, God. Yeah. Yeah, unfortunately, Florida does
1:02:48
Speaker 1: not have a very expansive market there. But yeah, I mean,
1:02:53
Speaker 1: at least you have a couple of books available to you.
1:02:55
Speaker 1: And yeah, if any of them offer alternate lines, you could,
1:02:58
Speaker 1: I guess, look at that. But I wouldn't pay, I
1:03:01
Speaker 1: would not pay more than minus 110 to get on
1:03:03
Speaker 1: the three and a half. Like, I wouldn't pay like
1:03:05
Speaker 1: minus 120 to get it. You know, it's just, It's
1:03:07
Speaker 1: not football, so it's not as important. Charles, what's up? Yeah,
1:03:12
Speaker 1: obviously the Republicans are major, major losers here. They completely
1:03:17
Speaker 1: fucked themselves. I was sounding the alarm long ago, man.
1:03:23
Speaker 1: I was saying that, yeah, if you're going to do
1:03:26
Speaker 1: everything at the behest of a foreign nation, we all
1:03:29
Speaker 1: know what nation that is. yeah instead of you know
1:03:32
Speaker 1: focusing on america and you make it that obvious that
1:03:36
Speaker 1: that's what you're doing nobody is going to vote for
1:03:39
Speaker 1: you that's yeah i mean it was so obvious that
1:03:41
Speaker 1: that was going to happen it's insane um you get
1:03:45
Speaker 1: pride or i don't know if i'm able to say
1:03:47
Speaker 1: the names of these or not but yeah pp pp
1:03:50
Speaker 1: uh you got oh you have fd now too all
1:03:53
Speaker 1: right florida getting it going good That's good to hear.
1:03:55
Speaker 1: I like it. They're getting more books there. So you
1:03:57
Speaker 1: still don't have DK then there, but yeah, that's good then. Yeah,
1:04:01
Speaker 1: I would get accounts on all those. PP though, they're
1:04:06
Speaker 1: mostly a props shop. They're a prop shop, I'm pretty sure.
1:04:09
Speaker 1: I don't even have, I think I probably do have
1:04:11
Speaker 1: an account there, but I like never use it because
1:04:13
Speaker 1: I'm not really a props guy. And I think that's
1:04:15
Speaker 1: what they do there. LA and Sacramento. The Lakers, I
1:04:20
Speaker 1: should say, at Sacramento. Sacramento, as we know, is coming
1:04:24
Speaker 1: off a huge upset win over the Mavericks. But I
1:04:27
Speaker 1: know I usually say that a team is usually in
1:04:29
Speaker 1: a letdown spot after they pull off an upset like that. Maybe.
1:04:34
Speaker 1: And there is another big negative here, which is that
1:04:36
Speaker 1: Sacramento's returning home from a road trip. So you've got
1:04:38
Speaker 1: to take that into account. When a team returns home
1:04:40
Speaker 1: from the road, and they've been away since last Tuesday,
1:04:43
Speaker 1: so it was a long road trip. Yeah, they have
1:04:45
Speaker 1: to get back to home life. They can get distracted.
1:04:47
Speaker 1: So it looks like a very... Very negative spot for
1:04:50
Speaker 1: the Kings because they're coming off a big upset. They're
1:04:53
Speaker 1: returning home, but I would counter that by saying they're
1:04:56
Speaker 1: not going to overlook the Lakers. I mean, it's the
1:04:58
Speaker 1: LA Lakers. They're also playing well. Even though they do
1:05:01
Speaker 1: have a revenge game, if you want to call it that,
1:05:03
Speaker 1: against the Spurs next, which is also a big game.
1:05:06
Speaker 1: My main concern here would still just be the return
1:05:09
Speaker 1: home spot is still a big concern, though, here. For Sacramento,
1:05:12
Speaker 1: but a lot of times when a team gets their
1:05:14
Speaker 1: first win, as I keep saying, if they're deep into
1:05:17
Speaker 1: the season, they don't have a win yet. It'll give
1:05:18
Speaker 1: them some like new confidence and new momentum moving forward.
1:05:22
Speaker 1: It'll get that like monkey off their back and they
1:05:24
Speaker 1: can kind of breathe a sigh of relief, but not
1:05:26
Speaker 1: become overconfident. You know what I mean?
1:05:28
Speaker 4: So.
1:05:29
Speaker 1: There are some positives here for Sacramento. For the Lakers,
1:05:34
Speaker 1: they just annihilated the Heat, which, you know, that looks
1:05:38
Speaker 1: pretty good. I mean, even though the Heat haven't been
1:05:40
Speaker 1: playing well, it's Giannis and whatever. And the Lakers do have,
1:05:42
Speaker 1: if you want to call it, a quick revenge game
1:05:44
Speaker 1: on deck against Portland because the Lakers did lose at
1:05:47
Speaker 1: home to Portland. Their only home loss this season, and
1:05:50
Speaker 1: they get to replay that game at home after this.
1:05:53
Speaker 1: So the Lakers are going up to Sacramento for one
1:05:55
Speaker 1: game here, and they have Detroit after that. So they
1:05:58
Speaker 1: do have two... Big games on deck after this. So
1:06:02
Speaker 1: if you take out how bad the spot is for Sacramento,
1:06:04
Speaker 1: this is a bad spot for the Lakers too. So
1:06:07
Speaker 1: what do we do with this game? I mean, I
1:06:11
Speaker 1: obviously have to stay away from this game, but I
1:06:14
Speaker 1: almost think I have to say you actually have to
1:06:16
Speaker 1: lean towards Sacramento here. There's no way I'm going to
1:06:19
Speaker 1: do it, but 56% of the tickets are on the Lakers,
1:06:22
Speaker 1: 60% of the cash on Sacramento Lakers. Lakers are up
1:06:25
Speaker 1: to a 12.5-point favorite here, so you pretty much know
1:06:27
Speaker 1: you're not going to get any value. Although occasionally I
1:06:30
Speaker 1: will say that you've got to lay double digits in
1:06:33
Speaker 1: the NBA. It's not completely off the table for me
1:06:36
Speaker 1: in a high-scoring sport like the NBA. This one I
1:06:39
Speaker 1: think I will agree with the market read and lean
1:06:42
Speaker 1: slightly towards Sacramento, but there are definitely some negatives here.
1:06:46
Speaker 1: But I do see maybe at least that one positive
1:06:49
Speaker 1: for Sacramento that Getting that first win gets that monkey
1:06:52
Speaker 1: off their back. Plus, you pretty much know LA is
1:06:55
Speaker 1: going to be the overvalued commodity in this game. So
1:06:59
Speaker 1: that's what we have going on in that game. But obviously,
1:07:01
Speaker 1: I really don't love that game. It's bad for both teams.
1:07:04
Speaker 1: You could maybe look at an over in this game.
1:07:06
Speaker 1: It's a high total. It's dropped from 238 down to 234.5, though.
1:07:10
Speaker 1: But money seems maybe slightly indicating on the over, although
1:07:14
Speaker 1: it's a little bit public, but not really that public.
1:07:17
Speaker 1: And the Lakers, I mean, they're kind of an over team.
1:07:19
Speaker 1: They have a really good offense, and their defense is
1:07:22
Speaker 1: very questionable. So the Lakers do get involved in high-scoring
1:07:25
Speaker 1: games for sure. So the over does make sense there.
1:07:30
Speaker 1: At PP, it's pretty much props there. Do you mean
1:07:34
Speaker 1: like you're just not good at props? I mean, I'm
1:07:38
Speaker 1: not really the guy for props. Fig nuts, what's up, man? Yeah,
1:07:42
Speaker 1: that's what I thought. Yeah, mainly props there at PP.
1:07:47
Speaker 2: Oh, man.
1:07:47
Speaker 1: Definitely going to make some penis jokes here. Finally getting
1:07:52
Speaker 1: done with the NBA board here with Miami and the Clippers.
1:07:57
Speaker 1: Good news for Miami is they're staying in L.A. Well,
1:08:00
Speaker 1: I guess there's two things that are good for them.
1:08:02
Speaker 1: One is they're coming off a blowout loss against the
1:08:04
Speaker 1: better L.A. team, so they might be in more of
1:08:06
Speaker 1: a bounce-back spot here after that embarrassment. This Heat team
1:08:10
Speaker 1: is still... They're not as bad as their record looks, man.
1:08:12
Speaker 1: I mean, any team with Giannis on it, I mean...
1:08:16
Speaker 1: they're going to at least be like basically a 500
1:08:19
Speaker 1: team at the very least. You know what I mean?
1:08:21
Speaker 1: Like that, a guy like him, that's how much impact
1:08:24
Speaker 1: he has in basketball, you know? Although he looks like
1:08:28
Speaker 1: he's trying to carry the team. And I think there
1:08:29
Speaker 1: might be some chemistry issue with that. Like you don't
1:08:32
Speaker 1: want to see, even though he's the Greek freak and whatever,
1:08:34
Speaker 1: you don't want to see him dominating the stat sheet
1:08:37
Speaker 1: to this degree, right? Like winning all three major categories
1:08:41
Speaker 1: in like half the games here. That's not what you want.
1:08:43
Speaker 1: So they need to start playing team basketball, man. That's
1:08:47
Speaker 1: what I'll say. But can they beat the Clippers here
1:08:51
Speaker 1: by margin, I guess is the question. Clippers, they're staying
1:08:55
Speaker 1: at home, I believe, so they're also staying in LA. Yeah,
1:08:57
Speaker 1: they just lost to Toronto the other day. Clippers. their
1:09:00
Speaker 1: resume not looking good they only have one win it's
1:09:02
Speaker 1: over the Kings but they face a difficult schedule too
1:09:05
Speaker 1: they face the Lakers twice Minnesota Oklahoma City their easiest
1:09:09
Speaker 1: opponent besides Sacramento was Golden State and then Toronto you
1:09:14
Speaker 1: know they're not that bad either So, you know, the
1:09:17
Speaker 1: Clippers are better than their record indicates, I would say.
1:09:21
Speaker 1: The money is still coming in on Miami, though. 72%
1:09:23
Speaker 1: of the tickets, 90% of the cash, and then their
1:09:26
Speaker 1: four-and-a-half-point favorite, basically, here. I would say the public's not
1:09:30
Speaker 1: going to, even though the Clippers are a one-win team,
1:09:32
Speaker 1: the public is, I mean, even though it looks like
1:09:33
Speaker 1: they're slightly on Miami here, or to some extent, but
1:09:37
Speaker 1: you think they would shy away a little bit from
1:09:38
Speaker 1: laying a point spread on the road like this with
1:09:42
Speaker 1: a team that's still way below. 500 like Miami, so...
1:09:45
Speaker 1: I think both teams are better than they look right now,
1:09:47
Speaker 1: but I'm probably going to lean to Miami because it's
1:09:50
Speaker 1: a spot where I think both teams are going to
1:09:52
Speaker 1: be focused. They're both staying in L.A., and I would
1:09:55
Speaker 1: rather have the better team in a spot like that,
1:09:57
Speaker 1: and that's Miami. So that's the way I would lean
1:09:59
Speaker 1: in that one. The props are not as fun. Yeah,
1:10:03
Speaker 1: I mean, it depends on what you like. I mean,
1:10:07
Speaker 1: there are some guys that do it, although I don't
1:10:09
Speaker 1: know if the guys who focus on props, if they
1:10:11
Speaker 1: actually love it or if they— they probably do— Or if
1:10:15
Speaker 1: they just, you know, it's their way that they profit,
1:10:18
Speaker 1: you know, like they're like, it definitely makes sense. Like
1:10:22
Speaker 1: if you're really good at props, the books pay less
1:10:25
Speaker 1: attention to the props. You know what I mean? Like
1:10:27
Speaker 1: the books, a lot of the lines of the books
1:10:29
Speaker 1: set on the props, they just look at like a
1:10:31
Speaker 1: player's like season long averages and they'll just throw up
1:10:34
Speaker 1: a number basically in line with those averages. But if
1:10:36
Speaker 1: you can identify that, oh, in this particular spot, this
1:10:39
Speaker 1: guy's going to get more usage or less usage or
1:10:42
Speaker 1: have some sort of, or something like that. You could
1:10:44
Speaker 1: definitely identify some spots there. I pay a little bit
1:10:48
Speaker 1: more attention to it in the playoffs because there's more...
1:10:51
Speaker 1: focus on you can put more focus on that one
1:10:53
Speaker 1: game and the zigzag works in the playoffs because you
1:10:56
Speaker 1: have the two teams playing each other again so if
1:10:58
Speaker 1: like one guy has this like major outlier performance in
1:11:02
Speaker 1: the playoffs you can fade his props in the next
1:11:04
Speaker 1: game and probably win long term by doing that or
1:11:07
Speaker 1: if a guy has a really bad game and he's
1:11:09
Speaker 1: usually good you're gonna get maybe a little bit of
1:11:11
Speaker 1: value on his props in the next game then he
1:11:13
Speaker 1: can go over his props in the next game if
1:11:15
Speaker 1: that makes sense regular season it probably does kind of
1:11:17
Speaker 1: work as well though um If you find a player
1:11:23
Speaker 1: that had a major outlier, fading their props in the
1:11:26
Speaker 1: next game against what just happened makes sense, I think. Yeah,
1:11:35
Speaker 1: sports betting, entertainment. Yeah, they set it up like it's
1:11:37
Speaker 1: a game, like a casino game almost. You know what
1:11:41
Speaker 1: I mean? Yeah, it's definitely not really my thing. Let's
1:11:46
Speaker 1: just put it that way. All right, we got college basketball.
1:11:48
Speaker 1: I want to hit some of these games kind of
1:11:49
Speaker 1: rapid fire here. I'm not going to have any plays.
1:11:51
Speaker 1: There are a lot of non-Division I teams in action
1:11:54
Speaker 1: today against Division I, so those are games that I
1:11:57
Speaker 1: just avoid, but I will say Maryland Eastern Shore playing
1:12:00
Speaker 1: high point, and this line, you got to look at
1:12:02
Speaker 1: this line and think this line is absolutely crazy. Even
1:12:05
Speaker 1: though Maryland Eastern Shore is really bad, like they're in
1:12:08
Speaker 1: the MEAC. They're in one of the worst conferences in
1:12:11
Speaker 1: Division I. They're one of the worst teams in Division I,
1:12:13
Speaker 1: but they're I get that, and I get that High
1:12:16
Speaker 1: Point is one of the best mid-major schools, but should
1:12:19
Speaker 1: High Point be laying 34.5 points to anybody? That number
1:12:24
Speaker 1: just seems outrageous to me, and I know High Point
1:12:27
Speaker 1: has a good offense or whatever, but 33.5 is usually
1:12:30
Speaker 1: a line that you only see with a power conference
1:12:32
Speaker 1: team against a non-power. This line just seems totally insane
1:12:36
Speaker 1: to me. Plus, everybody just saw High Point beat Liberty,
1:12:39
Speaker 1: and they didn't do well in the first half against Liberty,
1:12:41
Speaker 1: but they looked really good in the second half and
1:12:43
Speaker 1: pulled away. That was a game that pretty much everybody
1:12:46
Speaker 1: had their eye on because that was that midnight game
1:12:48
Speaker 1: on the opening marathon there. So that was a big game.
1:12:51
Speaker 1: High Point, big win over Liberty. Liberty's a decent team.
1:12:55
Speaker 1: High Point might be in for a little bit of
1:12:56
Speaker 1: a letdown here against Maryland East or Shore. Maryland East
1:12:59
Speaker 1: or Shore, they got blown out, I think, in whatever
1:13:01
Speaker 1: their first game was. So I would lean against High
1:13:04
Speaker 1: Point here. I would lean towards Maryland Eastern Shore plus
1:13:06
Speaker 1: the massive number there. High Point is 59% of the tickets,
1:13:11
Speaker 1: 62% of the cash on them. Maryland Eastern Shore, excuse me,
1:13:15
Speaker 1: the total is like 147.5, 148, so it's not a
1:13:18
Speaker 1: high total. Part of that is because Maryland Eastern Shore
1:13:21
Speaker 1: can't score, though, and that's kind of the problem here
1:13:24
Speaker 1: is High Point has a very good offense and Maryland
1:13:26
Speaker 1: Eastern Shore doesn't. But the good news for Eastern Shore
1:13:30
Speaker 1: here is that High Point doesn't have a good defense either, really,
1:13:33
Speaker 1: even though they didn't give up that many points against Liberty.
1:13:35
Speaker 1: They didn't really score much. Liberty actually kind of controlled
1:13:38
Speaker 1: the pace in that game. Liberty kind of uglied that
1:13:40
Speaker 1: game up, whereas High Point wants to play faster, really,
1:13:45
Speaker 1: as far as I know. At least that was what
1:13:47
Speaker 1: they were doing under Huss before he left. But I
1:13:52
Speaker 1: think they're two years removed from him now. But anyway, yeah,
1:13:55
Speaker 1: I mean... Yeah, that line is insane. Like, high point,
1:13:59
Speaker 1: I don't know if they're ready to take on the
1:14:01
Speaker 1: role of being, like, a completely dominant favorite like that
1:14:04
Speaker 1: and actually cover that number. I mean, they're not going
1:14:06
Speaker 1: to lose this game, but, you know, covering that number
1:14:09
Speaker 1: is kind of a ridiculous ask. And the total being
1:14:12
Speaker 1: really low, odds are just kind of indicating they don't
1:14:15
Speaker 1: think high point is going to really put up a
1:14:17
Speaker 1: massive point total in this one. So, although, again, some
1:14:20
Speaker 1: of it is because Maryland Eastern Shore is a horrible offense,
1:14:23
Speaker 1: and that is some of it, but, yeah. Their offense
1:14:26
Speaker 1: might be able to do some damage against High Point, though,
1:14:29
Speaker 1: because High Point doesn't defend that well. So I'm just
1:14:32
Speaker 1: going to go through a couple of these games also
1:14:34
Speaker 1: just because some of these have angles that I kind
1:14:36
Speaker 1: of look for. Longwood and St. Joe's is only interesting
1:14:39
Speaker 1: because Longwood has a game under their belt already, and
1:14:41
Speaker 1: they blew out some non-Division I team here. St. Joe's
1:14:46
Speaker 1: hasn't played yet. So in a case like that, I
1:14:48
Speaker 1: think the team that has a game under their belt
1:14:50
Speaker 1: is actually in a better spot. Although I don't really
1:14:53
Speaker 1: want to play on high point or excuse me, on
1:14:55
Speaker 1: a Longwood after a blowout win like that, like where
1:14:58
Speaker 1: they won by almost 60 points, but because it was
1:15:00
Speaker 1: against a non D one team, I don't think they're
1:15:02
Speaker 1: going to be overconfident. Plus St. Joe's is in like
1:15:05
Speaker 1: a better conference, the eight 10. So this is kind
1:15:08
Speaker 1: of a big game for Longwood, like kind of stepping
1:15:10
Speaker 1: up in class here, facing a team from a better
1:15:13
Speaker 1: conference and, Longwood in the big south I believe but
1:15:17
Speaker 1: Longwood having a game under their belt like that'll give
1:15:19
Speaker 1: them momentum right it'll get the nerves out of the
1:15:21
Speaker 1: way like okay we got a game out of the
1:15:23
Speaker 1: way their offense can get into some rhythm whereas the
1:15:26
Speaker 1: team that hasn't played yet St. Joe's they might start
1:15:29
Speaker 1: a little bit cold here you know what I mean
1:15:31
Speaker 1: they don't have a big game on deck though they
1:15:33
Speaker 1: only have Lafayette next who is a little brother to
1:15:36
Speaker 1: them in the state of Pennsylvania pretty much but Yeah,
1:15:40
Speaker 1: I would lean towards Longwood in this one, plus the points,
1:15:43
Speaker 1: just because I think the momentum from having a game
1:15:45
Speaker 1: under your belt is very helpful, actually. And St. Joe's,
1:15:50
Speaker 1: having not played yet, I think they're going to be
1:15:51
Speaker 1: maybe cold coming into this. So you could play Longwood
1:15:54
Speaker 1: in the first half as well. That would be an
1:15:56
Speaker 1: option here because St. Joe's lack of offensive rhythm is
1:16:01
Speaker 1: more likely to happen early in the game. And then
1:16:03
Speaker 1: once they get into rhythm, maybe they actually pull away late.
1:16:07
Speaker 1: Either way, the money is agreeing with me on this.
1:16:09
Speaker 1: 83% of the tickets, 71% of the cash on St.
1:16:12
Speaker 4: Joe's.
1:16:13
Speaker 1: They're up to a 10.5 point favorite here. Total's not
1:16:15
Speaker 1: really that high, around 150. So taking double digits makes
1:16:19
Speaker 1: some sense there. But yeah, the public is on St.
1:16:21
Speaker 1: Joe's and less of the money on them. And Longwood,
1:16:25
Speaker 1: I mean, they're usually an okay program in their conference.
1:16:29
Speaker 1: The last year they had a pretty bad year, I think.
1:16:31
Speaker 1: So I don't really know what the what state they're
1:16:34
Speaker 1: in this year, but they did just annihilate a Division
1:16:36
Speaker 1: II team. So I don't know how much we can
1:16:38
Speaker 1: read into that, but I think if they were really,
1:16:41
Speaker 1: really bad, they may have not had a result that
1:16:45
Speaker 1: was that good. But again, you don't want to put
1:16:47
Speaker 1: too much weight into a meaningless game like that. All right,
1:16:51
Speaker 1: I'm going to skip over some of these other games
1:16:53
Speaker 1: just because, I don't know, I just wanted to hit
1:16:55
Speaker 1: some of these games that had some situations that I
1:16:57
Speaker 1: was looking at. Northern Kentucky... They might be in a
1:17:02
Speaker 1: look-ahead spot. So Northern Kentucky just beat UTEP, and I
1:17:05
Speaker 1: believe that was actually an upset. Yeah, UTEP was actually
1:17:09
Speaker 1: a road favorite in this game, I believe. I think
1:17:11
Speaker 1: this was at Northern Kentucky. No, sorry, this was in
1:17:14
Speaker 1: Sioux Falls, South Dakota. I was going to say UTEP
1:17:17
Speaker 1: probably wouldn't be that big of a favorite on the road. Yeah,
1:17:18
Speaker 1: so this was in Sioux Falls, South Dakota. Northern Kentucky
1:17:22
Speaker 1: pulled off the upset. UTEP, I guess, considered to be okay.
1:17:25
Speaker 1: right now as a basketball program. I did see some,
1:17:28
Speaker 1: you know, the guys that do all the college basketball
1:17:31
Speaker 1: content and stuff, they seem to be pretty high on
1:17:34
Speaker 1: UTEP this year. So I don't know. I guess we'll see.
1:17:37
Speaker 1: But Northern Kentucky is supposed to be a little bit
1:17:40
Speaker 1: down this year, I think, but they got the win,
1:17:42
Speaker 1: nice upset win. But what I'm really looking at here
1:17:44
Speaker 1: is not only did they pull off an upset, although
1:17:46
Speaker 1: it was a mild upset, they got Texas A &
1:17:48
Speaker 1: M on deck in two days, and then they got St.
1:17:50
Speaker 1: Louis after that. both on the road, and St. Louis
1:17:53
Speaker 1: might have Avila back at that point, so I don't know,
1:17:56
Speaker 1: but Texas A & M is obviously a huge game
1:17:59
Speaker 1: for Northern Kentucky, right? They don't play many power conference teams,
1:18:03
Speaker 1: and that might be the only one they have on
1:18:04
Speaker 1: their schedule all year. Yeah, I think so, so they're
1:18:08
Speaker 1: probably going to treat that A & M game like
1:18:09
Speaker 1: their Super Bowl. That's going to be a massive game
1:18:12
Speaker 1: for Northern Kentucky, so I think they might overlook South
1:18:15
Speaker 1: Dakota here, who's a mediocre summit team here. South Dakota
1:18:20
Speaker 1: just won an easy game against a non-D1 school, so
1:18:23
Speaker 1: not much you can take away from that, but they're
1:18:25
Speaker 1: going to be at home in this one, and I
1:18:27
Speaker 1: guess the good news for Northern Kentucky is they're already
1:18:29
Speaker 1: in South Dakota from that last game, but still, I
1:18:33
Speaker 1: like South Dakota in this one. I think it's debatably
1:18:36
Speaker 1: kind of a sandwich spot there, although I'm not going
1:18:37
Speaker 1: to actually give out a play on this, but the
1:18:39
Speaker 1: money seems to agree with me on this. In Northern Kentucky,
1:18:43
Speaker 1: they dropped a little bit from about a three point
1:18:45
Speaker 1: favorite to a two and a half point favorite here
1:18:47
Speaker 1: 55 of the tickets are on them 57 of the
1:18:49
Speaker 1: cash on south dakota so the money is seemingly agreeing
1:18:53
Speaker 1: with me on this one and yeah i that one
1:18:56
Speaker 1: is that's the strongest opinion that i have out of
1:18:58
Speaker 1: the games i've talked about so far i like south
1:19:00
Speaker 1: dakota in that one um what else do we have
1:19:04
Speaker 1: here I think a couple of these other games, by
1:19:08
Speaker 1: the way, do involve a team that's played already against
1:19:10
Speaker 1: a team that hasn't, I think. There might be some
1:19:13
Speaker 1: games that are teams where they both haven't played as well,
1:19:16
Speaker 1: but I don't have a whole lot else on really
1:19:18
Speaker 1: any of the rest of these games, although I will
1:19:19
Speaker 1: say that once you get into these late games here...
1:19:22
Speaker 1: By the way, what the hell is this school? Salish
1:19:26
Speaker 1: Kootenai against Montana? What the fuck? I don't think I
1:19:30
Speaker 1: even want to know what that school... It sounds like a.
1:19:36
Speaker 1: I don't know. It sounds like either a Middle Eastern
1:19:38
Speaker 1: or an Indian dish or something. I don't know what
1:19:41
Speaker 1: we're even looking at here. But what I will say
1:19:43
Speaker 1: is in these late night games here, I don't like
1:19:47
Speaker 1: East Coast teams playing late night on the Pacific Coast.
1:19:50
Speaker 1: You know what I mean? Because I think the biological
1:19:51
Speaker 1: clock spot is bad. So like Radford is going to
1:19:54
Speaker 1: Cal here. Radford is having to travel all the way
1:19:57
Speaker 1: to the West Coast for this, for a 9 p.m. game.
1:20:00
Speaker 1: So they're going to be playing up to like 11 o'clock.
1:20:02
Speaker 1: although actually for Radford, nevermind. They're actually staying on the
1:20:05
Speaker 1: Pacific coast already. They already played out in San Francisco
1:20:08
Speaker 1: and they lost, but Radford does have Tennessee on deck. However,
1:20:12
Speaker 1: this is still a big game for Radford though, against Cal.
1:20:15
Speaker 1: Like that's what I was going to say. They're still
1:20:16
Speaker 1: not going to overlook Cal cause they're getting, they're getting
1:20:19
Speaker 1: to play a power conference team here. So they're going
1:20:21
Speaker 1: to get up for this game. Um, San Francisco was
1:20:24
Speaker 1: pretty good last year, so I don't know. Maybe San
1:20:26
Speaker 1: Francisco will continue to be good in the WCC, especially
1:20:30
Speaker 1: with Gonzaga no longer in that conference. We'll see what
1:20:33
Speaker 1: happens there. But yeah, Radford, they're already on the Pacific Coast,
1:20:37
Speaker 1: so maybe they will show up for this. And Cal,
1:20:40
Speaker 1: Cal is coming off a blowout win over a non-D1 team,
1:20:44
Speaker 1: but one thing that you could kind of point out
1:20:47
Speaker 1: here in this game is that Cal allowed 86 points
1:20:50
Speaker 1: to that team to Adams State so this Cal team
1:20:52
Speaker 1: looks like they don't play defense so that's not really
1:20:56
Speaker 1: great and the other bad thing for Cal is they
1:20:58
Speaker 1: have two huge games on deck against Houston and USC
1:21:01
Speaker 1: so they have two ranked matchups coming up next so
1:21:04
Speaker 1: I actually like Radford in this game to cover against Cal. Uh, Radford, um,
1:21:09
Speaker 1: won't have to, uh, adjust to the time zone here
1:21:12
Speaker 1: cause they're already out there. So that's good for them.
1:21:14
Speaker 1: They didn't embarrass themselves against what I think is a
1:21:16
Speaker 1: decent San Francisco team as well. Cal has 84% of
1:21:20
Speaker 1: the tickets and only 77% of the cash on them.
1:21:22
Speaker 1: So they're a public side with less of the money
1:21:25
Speaker 1: on them. And there were 16 and a half point favorite.
1:21:27
Speaker 1: I would take the points with Radford in that one,
1:21:29
Speaker 1: although they are in an unfamiliar venue there in that one. Um,
1:21:35
Speaker 1: The game that almost made the cut for me, though,
1:21:37
Speaker 1: was actually Queens and Loyola Marymount. I like Loyola Marymount
1:21:41
Speaker 1: in this game, and I hope I don't talk myself
1:21:44
Speaker 1: into it right now, but Queens had that game that
1:21:46
Speaker 1: everybody saw on the opening day because that was one
1:21:48
Speaker 1: of those, I think, early morning games where there weren't
1:21:51
Speaker 1: that many games on it. Queens had this high-scoring win
1:21:54
Speaker 1: over Winthrop, so that looks good. I mean, I don't
1:21:56
Speaker 1: know if people remember, Winthrop was pretty good in the
1:21:59
Speaker 1: Big South Conference last year and almost upset... They almost
1:22:04
Speaker 1: upset High Point in the conference tournament there, I think,
1:22:08
Speaker 1: if I remember correctly. So maybe people remember Winthrop for
1:22:11
Speaker 1: that reason. And then they're going to look at this
1:22:13
Speaker 1: game and think, oh, yeah, this is a really good
1:22:14
Speaker 1: win for Queens, putting up over 100 points. That looks
1:22:18
Speaker 1: really good to the public eye. But the way I
1:22:21
Speaker 1: look at it is they just give up 98 points, man.
1:22:23
Speaker 1: This Queens team, they don't play any defense. Yeah, they
1:22:26
Speaker 1: play really high-scoring games. There's no doubt about that. They score,
1:22:30
Speaker 1: and they don't play defense. And they're going all the
1:22:33
Speaker 1: way to the West Coast. So Queens, they're a team
1:22:35
Speaker 1: in North Carolina. They played the Winthrop game in South
1:22:38
Speaker 1: Carolina and beat Winthrop in their home state, technically. Now
1:22:43
Speaker 1: they've got to fly out West for a 10 p.m. game,
1:22:45
Speaker 1: which seems very, very difficult to me. Coming off a
1:22:48
Speaker 1: game where they scored over 100 points, now they've got
1:22:50
Speaker 1: to go out West. to the West coast. They got
1:22:52
Speaker 1: to adapt to this time. So I'm playing an unfamiliar
1:22:55
Speaker 1: venue and look at their next two games. They have
1:22:57
Speaker 1: to play Oklahoma state and BYU. Those are two huge
1:23:00
Speaker 1: games against both of them are big 12 teams, right? Uh,
1:23:04
Speaker 1: so those are huge games on deck. So this game, yeah,
1:23:08
Speaker 1: this does not look like a good spot at all
1:23:10
Speaker 1: to me for, uh, queens the only issue i have
1:23:13
Speaker 1: with this which is pretty much why i'm going to
1:23:14
Speaker 1: stay off of this is loyola marymount hasn't played yet
1:23:18
Speaker 1: so they're going to come into this game cold so
1:23:20
Speaker 1: they don't have a game under their belt yet but
1:23:22
Speaker 1: their next game is against a non-d1 team so they're
1:23:25
Speaker 1: gonna they'll show up for this i mean this is
1:23:26
Speaker 1: their first game of the season at home but the
1:23:29
Speaker 1: worry is they might start a little bit slow here
1:23:31
Speaker 1: um you know because they haven't played a game at
1:23:34
Speaker 1: all loyola marymount actually was reasonably competitive in the wcc
1:23:38
Speaker 1: last year they weren't that bad last year so we
1:23:40
Speaker 1: will see but yeah I would lay the points with
1:23:42
Speaker 1: Loyola Marymount in this one and hopefully you know once
1:23:46
Speaker 1: they get going they can run away enough with this
1:23:48
Speaker 1: game here you're laying I think about eight and a
1:23:49
Speaker 1: half in this one if you do it and laying
1:23:52
Speaker 1: points against Queens the good news is Queens their defense
1:23:55
Speaker 1: is awful so if you're on the winning side there's
1:23:58
Speaker 1: a pretty good chance they're going to cover because of
1:24:00
Speaker 1: how many points are probably going to get scored in
1:24:02
Speaker 1: this game the total is fairly high in the 160s
1:24:05
Speaker 1: Loyola Marymount is an eight and a half point favorite
1:24:08
Speaker 1: basically here 59% of the tickets and 73% of the
1:24:11
Speaker 1: cash on them. Yeah, that's the game that I like
1:24:14
Speaker 1: the most, actually, here on the college basketball board today.
1:24:18
Speaker 1: I like Loyola Marymount minus the points. And, you know,
1:24:22
Speaker 1: I think that was basically the last thing I was
1:24:24
Speaker 1: going to point out. I don't know. I mean, North
1:24:25
Speaker 1: Dakota State and St. Mary's is maybe the best game
1:24:29
Speaker 1: on the board here, if you want to call it that,
1:24:31
Speaker 1: although St. Mary's is a huge favorite, but they play
1:24:33
Speaker 1: such low-scoring games. slow games that them being a huge
1:24:37
Speaker 1: favorite doesn't always matter that much. North Dakota State just
1:24:40
Speaker 1: beat some non-D1 Minnesota team in an ugly low scoring game. St.
1:24:47
Speaker 1: Mary's got a win in their first game, but they
1:24:49
Speaker 1: barely got by Illinois State. But I did tell you,
1:24:52
Speaker 1: Illinois State actually might be a good team this year.
1:24:54
Speaker 1: And St. Mary's, they have a new coach this year
1:24:58
Speaker 1: because Randy Bennett left to go to Arizona State. So St.
1:25:01
Speaker 1: Mary's having to deal with a coaching change there. May
1:25:05
Speaker 1: have some growing pains. And that does not look like
1:25:07
Speaker 1: a St. Mary's type of game, 90 to 85. No, St.
1:25:11
Speaker 1: Mary's is usually playing games in the 60s and 70s.
1:25:14
Speaker 1: They usually play really, really slow. So I think Illinois
1:25:17
Speaker 1: State might have forced them into a different style of
1:25:20
Speaker 1: game there. So yeah, and St. Mary's still wound up
1:25:23
Speaker 1: getting away with the win there. I don't know how
1:25:27
Speaker 1: I feel about this game. To me, it looks like
1:25:29
Speaker 1: both teams are going to show up for this, so
1:25:30
Speaker 1: I don't know what to think about this game. The
1:25:32
Speaker 1: money is indicating on North Dakota State. St. Mary's, 74%
1:25:36
Speaker 1: of the tickets, only 61% of the cash on them.
1:25:38
Speaker 1: They're up to a 13-out point favorite, though, and it
1:25:41
Speaker 1: is a low total. I mean, I'm not surprised by that.
1:25:44
Speaker 1: Both of these teams, I think, kind of play. Well, actually,
1:25:46
Speaker 1: North Dakota State in the Summit. Summit is known for
1:25:48
Speaker 1: playing higher-scoring games, but I think North Dakota State is
1:25:51
Speaker 1: one of the only teams in that conference that actually
1:25:53
Speaker 1: plays some defense, and St. Mary's plays really slow, like
1:25:56
Speaker 1: I said. Probably still will continue to do so under
1:25:59
Speaker 1: their new coach. The total's pretty low, so taking points
1:26:03
Speaker 1: does kind of make sense with a low total like that. However,
1:26:06
Speaker 1: and you could argue, well, St. Mary's is coming off
1:26:10
Speaker 1: a bigger game, so maybe it's a little bit less
1:26:12
Speaker 1: good of a spot for them here, but North Dakota State,
1:26:16
Speaker 1: you know, they're, what, central time zone, and now they're
1:26:18
Speaker 1: going all the way out west, and they're having to
1:26:19
Speaker 1: play a 10 p.m. game on the Pacific Coast. You
1:26:22
Speaker 1: know I don't like that. I don't like playing late
1:26:25
Speaker 1: on your biological clocks that's a bit of a concern
1:26:27
Speaker 1: there St. Mary's has Nevada on deck I mean I
1:26:31
Speaker 1: don't know if you could argue that might be a
1:26:32
Speaker 1: look ahead there Nevada are they still in the Mountain
1:26:35
Speaker 1: West I think they probably are but they're a much
1:26:37
Speaker 1: better basketball team than football team recently though so I
1:26:41
Speaker 1: don't know yeah I mean that's all I got pretty
1:26:45
Speaker 1: much there but we will go to college football here
1:26:47
Speaker 1: now we have all Mac games again Maction continues here
1:26:51
Speaker 1: First game is just horrendous looking. Ball State at UMass
1:26:54
Speaker 1: on ESPNU. Both these teams are awful. However, this might
1:26:59
Speaker 1: be a spot where UMass does bounce back. I mean,
1:27:01
Speaker 1: UMass started out 4-0, and I pointed out how it
1:27:04
Speaker 1: was a misleading 4-0 because, yeah, they pulled off a
1:27:07
Speaker 1: massive upset over Rutgers, but they played nobody after that.
1:27:10
Speaker 1: They beat two FCS teams, then they beat Sacramento State, who...
1:27:14
Speaker 1: Pretty much might as well be an FCS team. Then
1:27:17
Speaker 1: UMass lost four games in a row. However, I will
1:27:19
Speaker 1: counter it by saying they did lose their quarterback, Watson III.
1:27:24
Speaker 1: He was out for like three and a half games, essentially, though.
1:27:28
Speaker 1: And all three games, well, he actually came back last game, so...
1:27:32
Speaker 1: The two games that he was out for fully, UMass
1:27:35
Speaker 1: lost both games, although they actually played really close in
1:27:38
Speaker 1: both games against Miami, Ohio, and Buffalo. But Watson is back.
1:27:42
Speaker 1: He came back last week against UConn, which was a
1:27:45
Speaker 1: midweek game last week, I think. William Watson III, yeah. Yeah,
1:27:50
Speaker 1: they haven't played since Friday last week. Well, Friday the 23rd, basically, yeah.
1:27:56
Speaker 1: So it was Friday, then they got a Saturday off
1:27:58
Speaker 1: after that, and now they're playing midweek on a Wednesday.
1:28:01
Speaker 1: So there's a long layoff here. I think the long
1:28:03
Speaker 1: layoff should help UMass because they lost four games in
1:28:06
Speaker 1: a row. They lost their most recent game in a
1:28:09
Speaker 1: game that people were watching on a Friday night. It
1:28:11
Speaker 1: was an isolated game. They got blown out at UConn.
1:28:14
Speaker 1: So I think having extra time off can break this
1:28:16
Speaker 1: four-game losing streak here. I kind of like UMass here,
1:28:20
Speaker 1: and with Watson having his second game back here, and
1:28:22
Speaker 1: he's a little bit of a dual-threat quarterback as well. Um,
1:28:25
Speaker 1: they've used three different quarterbacks, but with him back and
1:28:28
Speaker 1: having a game under his belt, you know, I taught, I,
1:28:30
Speaker 1: I didn't even realize he was coming back last year,
1:28:32
Speaker 1: but you know, I talk about the reverse injured player
1:28:34
Speaker 1: spot where when the star player comes back or your
1:28:37
Speaker 1: starting quarterback, a lot of times the team gets a
1:28:41
Speaker 1: little bit complacent if they're playing kind of well without him,
1:28:43
Speaker 1: which they kind of were. And then, you know, you
1:28:45
Speaker 1: have to adjust having him back and the line can
1:28:47
Speaker 1: over adjust and whatever. And they had a bad game
1:28:49
Speaker 1: against UConn, but UConn was a big favorite. UConn is
1:28:53
Speaker 1: better than these Mac teams. They're way better than Ball State. So,
1:28:57
Speaker 1: Now UMass a lot of time off to disrupt this
1:28:59
Speaker 1: losing momentum. Watson in his second game back should be better, right?
1:29:03
Speaker 1: Cause he now has a game under his belt. So
1:29:05
Speaker 1: he should be back in rhythm and whatever. Um, Ball
1:29:08
Speaker 1: State also isn't good, so there is that. Ball State,
1:29:12
Speaker 1: I think they're probably not even as good as their
1:29:13
Speaker 1: record looks, although I think UMass isn't as good as
1:29:15
Speaker 1: their record looks either. But Ball State, they're coming off
1:29:18
Speaker 1: two wins, but they're very unimpressive wins against Bowling Green
1:29:22
Speaker 1: in overtime and Sacramento State. Those are two also bad
1:29:26
Speaker 1: teams in the MAAC. And besides that, the only other
1:29:29
Speaker 1: win they have was against a non-division one, or against
1:29:32
Speaker 1: an FCS team, excuse me, for Ball State. So yeah,
1:29:36
Speaker 1: Ball State, I would fade them here. They're also coming
1:29:40
Speaker 1: off two straight wins, so they could have their momentum
1:29:42
Speaker 1: disrupted by having that extra time off because they last
1:29:45
Speaker 1: played last Saturday, well, the Saturday before last, if you
1:29:49
Speaker 1: want to call it that, and then they had over
1:29:51
Speaker 1: a week off, so both teams have a similar amount
1:29:53
Speaker 1: of rest here. The only issue maybe with UMass is
1:29:56
Speaker 1: they have Toledo on deck, so UMass with Toledo on deck,
1:29:59
Speaker 1: that might be a big game that they might be
1:30:01
Speaker 1: looking ahead to, but then again, This is a primetime
1:30:04
Speaker 1: home game, and UMass is not used to being able
1:30:06
Speaker 1: to play these because UMass, they haven't been in FBS
1:30:10
Speaker 1: for that long, and I don't know if they've gotten
1:30:13
Speaker 1: one of these primetime home games at all yet. So
1:30:15
Speaker 1: UMass might be pretty excited, actually, to get, even though
1:30:18
Speaker 1: it's against Ball State, they get a home primetime isolated
1:30:22
Speaker 1: game like this on one of the ESPN games. So
1:30:24
Speaker 1: as I always talk about when I talk about these games,
1:30:26
Speaker 1: the home team gets a little bit of a bump
1:30:28
Speaker 1: for that. Plus, UMass, it would be actually a huge
1:30:31
Speaker 1: deal for the program if they somehow became bowl eligible.
1:30:34
Speaker 1: That would be crazy. And they have the ability to
1:30:36
Speaker 1: do that. But if they're going to do it, they've
1:30:38
Speaker 1: really got to win this game to get their fifth win.
1:30:40
Speaker 1: And then they're going to have to win one of
1:30:41
Speaker 1: their remaining. They're not going to beat Toledo. But then
1:30:43
Speaker 1: they have to beat some lesser team that they have
1:30:47
Speaker 1: left on their schedule in the MAAC here. I know
1:30:50
Speaker 1: I'm not looking at UMass' schedule right now. This is
1:30:53
Speaker 1: Ball State. But, yeah, I like UMass in this game.
1:30:56
Speaker 1: And this is not my actual play, even though it
1:30:58
Speaker 1: might sound like I have a strong opinion on this.
1:31:00
Speaker 1: The money is kind of questionable here. 75% of the
1:31:04
Speaker 1: tickets on them, 76% of the money. UMass is about
1:31:07
Speaker 1: a three-point favorite here, three and a half. I would
1:31:09
Speaker 1: try to find the three, though. You have to lay
1:31:12
Speaker 1: a little bit of juice on it. Three is key
1:31:14
Speaker 1: in football, better than having to lay the hook. the
1:31:17
Speaker 1: three and a half, especially when it's an ugly looking game.
1:31:19
Speaker 1: It's a low total in the 40s. So you're not
1:31:22
Speaker 1: going to get that many points in this game, most likely.
1:31:25
Speaker 1: So every point matters a little bit. The other thing
1:31:28
Speaker 1: I will say about this game is I think UMass
1:31:31
Speaker 1: is actually the better team. all around out of the two.
1:31:34
Speaker 1: With Watson back, they might be the better offense over
1:31:36
Speaker 1: Ball State, but without a question, UMass is actually the
1:31:39
Speaker 1: better defense here. Even though I don't think UMass is
1:31:42
Speaker 1: very good at all, Ball State is also quite bad.
1:31:45
Speaker 1: The Mac is awful, dude. The Mac has so many
1:31:48
Speaker 1: teams that are near the bottom of Division I. UMass
1:31:51
Speaker 1: is still one of those worst teams. Sacramento State is...
1:31:53
Speaker 1: abysmal kent state is abysmal uh akron's not good akron
1:31:58
Speaker 1: covered last night which i was correct about they blew
1:32:00
Speaker 1: the game though i was correct about both underdogs covering
1:32:03
Speaker 1: last night yeah i mean those teams are all really
1:32:06
Speaker 1: bad and kent state is really bad too um which
1:32:09
Speaker 1: i think i might have said dirty sock what's up
1:32:11
Speaker 1: thanks for hanging out yeah i lean towards umass in
1:32:13
Speaker 1: that one though uh the next game speaking of sacramento
1:32:15
Speaker 1: state this game is Oh, my God. This game's on
1:32:19
Speaker 1: CBS Sports. It is Toledo at Sacramento State. So you
1:32:22
Speaker 1: basically have debatably the best team in the MAAC against
1:32:26
Speaker 1: the worst. Now, the one negative for Toledo is they're
1:32:29
Speaker 1: having to fly out to the Pacific Coast for a
1:32:31
Speaker 1: night game, but luckily for them, this game is at
1:32:33
Speaker 1: 7 Eastern, so it's not going to be a weird
1:32:36
Speaker 1: time for them. They don't have to play at 10 o'clock,
1:32:40
Speaker 1: so that should benefit them a little bit. It's really
1:32:41
Speaker 1: weird because this is actually senior night for Sacramento State,
1:32:45
Speaker 1: so that means it's their final home game of the season.
1:32:48
Speaker 1: I know, which is weird, because they have like four
1:32:49
Speaker 1: games to go on the season, but this is Sacramento
1:32:52
Speaker 1: State's last home game, so good luck to them, I guess. Which,
1:32:56
Speaker 1: you know, they scheduled it that way because it's a
1:32:58
Speaker 1: California team that's in the MAAC, which is absolutely ridiculous.
1:33:01
Speaker 1: I don't know, they did it all for money, moving
1:33:04
Speaker 1: up to FBS and joining the MAAC, totally ridiculous, but
1:33:07
Speaker 1: at least the schedule makers said, we're going to schedule
1:33:09
Speaker 1: all your California games pretty much all in a row,
1:33:12
Speaker 1: then all your road games will happen after that, so
1:33:15
Speaker 1: you can just stay on the road, but That road
1:33:17
Speaker 1: trip is probably going to take its toll on Sacramento State,
1:33:20
Speaker 1: I will say. But they're at home here. It is
1:33:22
Speaker 1: their last home game of the regular season, which usually
1:33:25
Speaker 1: teams get up for a game like that, and you
1:33:27
Speaker 1: celebrate your seniors that are going to graduate, whatever. But
1:33:31
Speaker 1: it's odd that it's at 4 p.m. local time. So,
1:33:35
Speaker 1: you know, kids are still in class at that point.
1:33:37
Speaker 1: You want to have the game at 7 so you
1:33:38
Speaker 1: can get your students– to the game, so that's weird.
1:33:41
Speaker 1: I don't know if there's going to be much of
1:33:42
Speaker 1: a crowd there for this. Maybe they'll show up, because
1:33:45
Speaker 1: it is still their last home game of the season,
1:33:47
Speaker 1: and it is Toledo, the best team in the conference,
1:33:49
Speaker 1: coming in here. I think Toledo might not take them seriously, though.
1:33:53
Speaker 1: Toledo's coming off a big win over Western Michigan, a
1:33:57
Speaker 1: crazy high-scoring game, although Toledo actually did play better in
1:33:59
Speaker 1: that game than it looked on the scoreboard. They actually
1:34:03
Speaker 1: dominated the game yardage-wise in the game, but Western Michigan's
1:34:06
Speaker 1: one of the better teams in the conference. That was
1:34:07
Speaker 1: still a big win for Toledo. And now they have
1:34:10
Speaker 1: extra time off because all these teams played, you know,
1:34:13
Speaker 1: way back on basically October 24th was the last Saturday
1:34:17
Speaker 1: when these teams would have played. And I think that
1:34:19
Speaker 1: might disrupt Toledo's momentum a little bit. The fact that
1:34:22
Speaker 1: they were on a two-game win streak and have all
1:34:25
Speaker 1: this time off, I think that actually might not help
1:34:27
Speaker 1: them here. Sacramento State played more recently, I think, because
1:34:32
Speaker 1: I think they played a midweek game last week. Yeah,
1:34:33
Speaker 1: so they're on more normal rest here for the most part.
1:34:36
Speaker 1: They played on Friday, and they finally got their first
1:34:38
Speaker 1: FBS win in program history, beating Kent State. So they
1:34:43
Speaker 1: had one win, which was an FCS win against a
1:34:47
Speaker 1: really bad team, even for FCS, really bad. Mississippi Valley State,
1:34:51
Speaker 1: they're just a joke in football and basketball, whatever. But
1:34:54
Speaker 1: the good thing for Sacramento State is you get a win,
1:34:59
Speaker 1: In the FBS, finally, that can get that monkey off
1:35:01
Speaker 1: your back, and it snaps a long losing streak. So
1:35:03
Speaker 1: that can give the momentum moving forward. The problem with
1:35:06
Speaker 1: it is they did pull off an upset, so it
1:35:08
Speaker 1: was kind of a big upset. However, I would counter
1:35:10
Speaker 1: that by saying, well, it was against Kent State. Kent
1:35:13
Speaker 1: State's not a good team. So that would kind of
1:35:16
Speaker 1: go against that. There are a lot of conflicting factors here, man,
1:35:20
Speaker 1: as you'll see as I'm talking about this here. The
1:35:24
Speaker 1: other thing that goes against Sacramento State here is not
1:35:26
Speaker 1: just was that an upset, so it could set up
1:35:28
Speaker 1: a little bit of a letdown, but Kent State had
1:35:30
Speaker 1: five turnovers in the game, so that obviously factored into
1:35:34
Speaker 1: the fact that Sacramento State won 31-10. They would not
1:35:37
Speaker 1: have won by a score like that if there weren't
1:35:39
Speaker 1: that many turnovers. Kent State got obliterated in the turnover department.
1:35:42
Speaker 1: They were minus four in turnovers. But what I will
1:35:45
Speaker 1: say is the yardage battle was actually kind of close.
1:35:47
Speaker 1: I think Kent State only won the yardage battle slightly
1:35:50
Speaker 1: in the game. So, yes, it was a misleading result,
1:35:53
Speaker 1: but Sacramento State still could have won that game or
1:35:57
Speaker 1: at least kept it close in that game. All that
1:36:00
Speaker 1: being said, I would still lean towards taking the points
1:36:04
Speaker 1: in this one. I know this is a complete mismatch,
1:36:06
Speaker 1: but Toledo's laying 25.5 on the road here in kind
1:36:10
Speaker 1: of an odd spot. So I would take the points
1:36:13
Speaker 1: again with Sacramento State here. 53% of the tickets and
1:36:17
Speaker 1: 59% of the cash on Toledo, though, so they don't
1:36:20
Speaker 1: look that public. with some money maybe coming in on Toledo.
1:36:24
Speaker 1: Still sitting at 25.5 here for the most part, or 24.5.
1:36:28
Speaker 1: Get at least 24.5 if you're actually going to do it,
1:36:30
Speaker 1: because 24 is the key number here. But yeah, I'm
1:36:33
Speaker 1: going to lean towards the home dog in this one.
1:36:34
Speaker 1: I mean, laying 25.5 on the road is just absurd.
1:36:38
Speaker 1: A number like that is usually reserved for a power
1:36:42
Speaker 1: conference team on the road against a lesser team. But
1:36:46
Speaker 1: this is Toledo, and... I mean, yeah, they're good for
1:36:49
Speaker 1: a MAAC team, and they could definitely score, but still,
1:36:52
Speaker 1: this is kind of ridiculous. So, yeah, I would lean
1:36:55
Speaker 1: towards taking the points. Hopefully, Sacramento State's going to have
1:36:58
Speaker 1: to put up some points, though, which maybe they can
1:37:00
Speaker 1: because Toledo's a better offense than defense at the very least.
1:37:05
Speaker 1: And that, of course, gives us the final game I'm
1:37:08
Speaker 1: going to talk about. I told you I have a play,
1:37:10
Speaker 1: so yeah, you know it's in this final game here,
1:37:12
Speaker 1: which is at 7.30 p.m. Eastern on ESPN2. The battle
1:37:16
Speaker 1: of two of the Michigan rivals here, Central Michigan and
1:37:19
Speaker 1: Eastern Michigan. Eastern Michigan, of course, having our dude Noah
1:37:23
Speaker 1: Kanega on their team. I don't know if he plays, though.
1:37:28
Speaker 1: I don't know if he starts. But let's not let
1:37:30
Speaker 1: that bias us here, man, because I'm going to go
1:37:33
Speaker 1: against that team, and I'm going to play against what
1:37:35
Speaker 1: I think is a little bit of an under-the-radar Central
1:37:38
Speaker 1: Michigan team here, plus two against, it might be one
1:37:42
Speaker 1: and a half right now, but whatever, against Eastern Michigan. Now,
1:37:45
Speaker 1: this game is in a neutral location. It's in Ford
1:37:48
Speaker 1: Field in Detroit where the Lions play, although Eastern Michigan,
1:37:52
Speaker 1: I believe, is closer to this location than Central Michigan,
1:37:55
Speaker 1: but even so, That wouldn't worry me too much. These
1:37:58
Speaker 1: teams are familiar with this venue. Central Michigan has played
1:38:01
Speaker 1: in this. I think the conference championship gets played in
1:38:04
Speaker 1: this venue sometimes. And sometimes these teams wind up in
1:38:06
Speaker 1: bowl games in this location too. So it's not going
1:38:09
Speaker 1: to throw Central Michigan off. But there are some reasons
1:38:13
Speaker 1: I like Central Michigan in this one. Central Michigan... They're
1:38:17
Speaker 1: coming off a couple of losses. Granted, they were pretty
1:38:20
Speaker 1: close against Western Michigan and Miami, Ohio, and those are
1:38:23
Speaker 1: not bad teams. So normally I'm not going to want
1:38:25
Speaker 1: to play on a team that just almost pulled off
1:38:27
Speaker 1: a nice win there. uh but uh central michigan wasn't
1:38:31
Speaker 1: like a big underdog here they're only three and a
1:38:33
Speaker 1: half point underdog against miami ohio so i don't think
1:38:36
Speaker 1: they're going to be hung over anything off of that
1:38:38
Speaker 1: loss i think they'll show up for this because this
1:38:40
Speaker 1: is a big espn game espn2 game against one of
1:38:43
Speaker 1: their other michigan rivals So to me, it doesn't look
1:38:46
Speaker 1: like a bad spot for them. Plus, they have extra
1:38:48
Speaker 1: time off, and they are on a three-game losing streak.
1:38:51
Speaker 1: And you know, I'm going to say it again, the
1:38:53
Speaker 1: extra time off can help a team that's on a
1:38:54
Speaker 1: losing streak bust that losing momentum and prepare and fix
1:38:58
Speaker 1: some things. They're not going to be looking ahead either
1:39:00
Speaker 1: because Sacramento State up next. Whatever. Central Michigan, I mean,
1:39:04
Speaker 1: still ideally they want to try to get into a
1:39:06
Speaker 1: bowl game, and they could theoretically do that. They have
1:39:09
Speaker 1: to win this game, and then they'll almost definitely beat
1:39:11
Speaker 1: Sacramento State. And if they win both these games, they
1:39:13
Speaker 1: only need one more win. And, you know, the last
1:39:17
Speaker 1: two games they played, Buffalo and Ball State, those are
1:39:19
Speaker 1: not unwinnable games, especially not Ball State. So that's still
1:39:23
Speaker 1: possible for Central Michigan. Now, Eastern Michigan, they want to
1:39:27
Speaker 1: get to a bowl as well. They've been in some
1:39:29
Speaker 1: bowls recently, I think. They're on a two-game losing streak
1:39:32
Speaker 1: as well, and they also had the same time off. So, again,
1:39:36
Speaker 1: maybe that time off will disrupt their losing momentum. The
1:39:39
Speaker 1: problem I have with that is look at the two
1:39:41
Speaker 1: games they played. I mean, they played Toledo, which is
1:39:44
Speaker 1: a big game, but... And they didn't come close in
1:39:48
Speaker 1: that game. But their last game, they were a double-digit
1:39:50
Speaker 1: underdog at Ohio, which I talked about last night. Even
1:39:54
Speaker 1: though at Ohio, I still went against the possible Ohio
1:39:58
Speaker 1: bounce back last night. I still liked fading them last night.
1:40:01
Speaker 1: But in this case, I'm going to fade Eastern Michigan
1:40:04
Speaker 1: after this because Eastern Michigan was an 11.5-point underdog in
1:40:08
Speaker 1: this game, and they almost pulled off the upset. Ohio
1:40:11
Speaker 1: did out-game them, but Ohio had a couple of turnovers
1:40:14
Speaker 1: here and whatever. That was a huge game for Eastern Michigan, man,
1:40:17
Speaker 1: playing against the only undefeated team in the conference, I think, Ohio.
1:40:21
Speaker 1: I think they still wound up pulling the game out
1:40:23
Speaker 1: last night, even though they were losing late in the game.
1:40:26
Speaker 1: That was a huge game for Eastern Michigan, yeah, against Ohio.
1:40:30
Speaker 1: I think they might be 5-0 in the MAAC now
1:40:32
Speaker 1: after last night. Yeah, so Eastern Michigan coming off a big,
1:40:36
Speaker 1: near-upset win. And by the way, look at how they
1:40:38
Speaker 1: lost this game, by the way. Eastern Michigan scored to
1:40:42
Speaker 1: take the lead with less than four minutes to go,
1:40:45
Speaker 1: and they immediately lost that game, giving up a kick-return
1:40:48
Speaker 1: touchdown right after they took the lead, thinking they were
1:40:51
Speaker 1: going to win the game. The kick got returned for
1:40:53
Speaker 1: a touchdown, and then Eastern Michigan couldn't get it done.
1:40:56
Speaker 1: That's brutal, dude. It would have been more brutal if
1:40:58
Speaker 1: that was literally the last play of the game and
1:41:00
Speaker 1: there was no time for the offense to do anything for...
1:41:03
Speaker 1: Ohio and you know the only way they could have
1:41:05
Speaker 1: won was to return the kick that would have been
1:41:07
Speaker 1: more insane but this is still really insane so yeah
1:41:11
Speaker 1: I think Eastern Michigan still might be in a hangover
1:41:13
Speaker 1: mode after that that was a big game for them
1:41:17
Speaker 1: even though they have extra time off but it gets
1:41:18
Speaker 1: more problematic for them because look who they have on
1:41:21
Speaker 1: deck they have Western Michigan on deck and Western Michigan
1:41:24
Speaker 1: is sitting at second in the conference right now so
1:41:27
Speaker 1: they have this game sandwiched in between basically the top
1:41:30
Speaker 1: two teams in the Like I said, I do think
1:41:33
Speaker 1: Toledo is actually probably better than both Ohio and Western Michigan.
1:41:39
Speaker 1: I think Buffalo's a fraud, and I think Miami, Ohio's
1:41:42
Speaker 1: just okay, even though I know Buffalo actually beat them
1:41:44
Speaker 1: last night. And Miami, Ohio doinked the tying field goal,
1:41:48
Speaker 1: trying to send it into another overtime, but whatever. Yeah,
1:41:52
Speaker 1: I think the top three teams in this conference are Ohio,
1:41:55
Speaker 1: Western Michigan, and Toledo, though. So yeah, this is a
1:41:58
Speaker 1: sandwich spot for Eastern Michigan. The other thing to know
1:42:01
Speaker 1: about Eastern Michigan is their quarterback situation. This guy Kim
1:42:05
Speaker 1: is typically their quarterback here. Noah Kim, he got hurt
1:42:09
Speaker 1: in the Toledo game. He didn't play in the Ohio game,
1:42:14
Speaker 1: although they actually played well without him in that game,
1:42:16
Speaker 1: and they used McCoy. Is that how you pronounce his name? McCoy.
1:42:20
Speaker 1: That's what I'm going to call him. McCoy. Dude, his
1:42:24
Speaker 1: name is so Irish and whatever. Yeah, I think that's Irish.
1:42:28
Speaker 1: Brogan McCoy is this guy's name for Eastern Michigan. I
1:42:32
Speaker 1: like his name, but he sounds like he's from Massachusetts, but...
1:42:37
Speaker 1: He's not their better quarterback. Kim is the better quarterback here.
1:42:39
Speaker 1: So this is going to be potentially a problem for
1:42:42
Speaker 1: Eastern Michigan because, you know, I talk about how first
1:42:45
Speaker 1: game your quarterback is out, your team is going to
1:42:48
Speaker 1: have a tendency to step up their level of play,
1:42:50
Speaker 1: and that's what they did against Ohio. So that was
1:42:51
Speaker 1: actually the injured player game for Eastern Michigan there. And
1:42:55
Speaker 1: usually the game after that, if you play well in
1:42:57
Speaker 1: that game, you take a little bit of a step
1:42:58
Speaker 1: back after that. So that's what happened. They did play well.
1:43:02
Speaker 1: They almost upset Ohio. Now off of that game, I
1:43:06
Speaker 1: think it's going to be difficult for Eastern Michigan here
1:43:08
Speaker 1: whether Kim comes back or not. And it looks like,
1:43:11
Speaker 1: I don't think he is, but if he does, then
1:43:14
Speaker 1: that means they have to work him back in. And
1:43:16
Speaker 1: that means, you know, you might get a little bit
1:43:17
Speaker 1: of extra value. So I still don't know if I,
1:43:20
Speaker 1: you know, I don't know if I would necessarily wait
1:43:22
Speaker 1: to play this game or not. I mean, you're not
1:43:23
Speaker 1: going to lose much if you do wait. on this
1:43:26
Speaker 1: uh maybe wait and see if kim is gonna play
1:43:28
Speaker 1: or not because if he's gonna play you might get
1:43:30
Speaker 1: a little bit of extra value on central michigan but
1:43:32
Speaker 1: i don't think this thing is gonna hit three or
1:43:34
Speaker 1: anything like that and i actually don't think kim is
1:43:36
Speaker 1: gonna play either but uh because they're not really even
1:43:39
Speaker 1: discussing his injury so i have no idea what the
1:43:42
Speaker 1: injury really is but yeah like that second game if
1:43:46
Speaker 1: you play well that first game without your quarterback that
1:43:48
Speaker 1: second game a lot of times you take a major
1:43:50
Speaker 1: step back and i think that might be the case
1:43:52
Speaker 1: here um Either they're going to be without him and
1:43:55
Speaker 1: they're going to take a big step back here, or
1:43:58
Speaker 1: he's going to come back and it'll be the reverse
1:44:01
Speaker 1: injured player spot. You know what I mean? And the
1:44:02
Speaker 1: team might get a little bit complacent off of that.
1:44:05
Speaker 1: And I think because Central Michigan kind of plays ugly
1:44:08
Speaker 1: and they kind of focus more on defense and running
1:44:10
Speaker 1: the football, they're the type of team the public doesn't
1:44:12
Speaker 1: really want to back. And they're probably not going to
1:44:14
Speaker 1: back them here either. having the lesser record here. Central Michigan,
1:44:18
Speaker 1: I think they have some quarterback issues as well, but
1:44:21
Speaker 1: they don't throw the ball as much as Eastern Michigan does,
1:44:23
Speaker 1: so I don't think it's going to matter as much
1:44:26
Speaker 1: to Central Michigan. Let me see. Yeah, they don't really
1:44:29
Speaker 1: do much in the passing attack here. So it looks
1:44:33
Speaker 1: like Flores, who was their main quarterback, he got hurt,
1:44:36
Speaker 1: and he's like a dual-threat quarterback. Which sometimes I do
1:44:40
Speaker 1: like the dual threat because you have to prepare for
1:44:42
Speaker 1: that as a defense. But it looks like the backup
1:44:44
Speaker 1: glasser is more of just a pure thrower. So that
1:44:48
Speaker 1: does change the complexion of this offense. But whatever. I
1:44:54
Speaker 1: don't know which one of them is playing in this game.
1:44:55
Speaker 1: I just don't really care. So we don't really know
1:44:58
Speaker 1: whose quarterback is playing in either situation. But I think
1:45:01
Speaker 1: Central Michigan is going to have an easier time overcoming
1:45:05
Speaker 1: that because they don't focus on the passing attack as much.
1:45:08
Speaker 4: So.
1:45:09
Speaker 1: Yeah, I like Central Michigan here. I think it's a
1:45:11
Speaker 1: bad spot for Eastern Michigan. Eastern Michigan has 66% of
1:45:14
Speaker 1: the tickets on them, 55% of the cash on Central Michigan.
1:45:17
Speaker 1: So the money agrees with me on this against the public.
1:45:20
Speaker 1: The line is mostly one and a halfs here. I
1:45:22
Speaker 1: found like a rogue two at the M Lion Book
1:45:26
Speaker 1: is where I found that number. It's mostly one and
1:45:28
Speaker 1: a half, but there's not really that much of a
1:45:30
Speaker 1: difference there. It's also a low total in the 40s. Um,
1:45:34
Speaker 1: which you know the over looks a little bit public
1:45:36
Speaker 1: but some money also kind of coming in on the
1:45:38
Speaker 1: over maybe that worries me a little bit because i
1:45:40
Speaker 1: think eastern michigan is probably a little bit more correlated
1:45:43
Speaker 1: to the over i think central michigan wants to ugly
1:45:46
Speaker 1: the game up a bit and play a lower scoring
1:45:48
Speaker 1: game but yeah i like central michigan in that one
1:45:54
Speaker 1: elio what's up um Yes, I have sons over trailblazers.
1:45:57
Speaker 1: What's up? My record is right here. At least I've
1:46:00
Speaker 1: been updating it every day on the show for the
1:46:02
Speaker 1: last 200 whatever days here. You can see my record
1:46:05
Speaker 1: scrolling past. It's all documented here on the show and
1:46:09
Speaker 1: on Action Network. And that involves no favorites that are
1:46:12
Speaker 1: more than typically I don't play a favorite more than
1:46:14
Speaker 1: minus 140 something favorites. um, in like the money line
1:46:17
Speaker 1: sports or whatever. One of them was, uh, like there
1:46:20
Speaker 1: was a world cup play I gave out that was
1:46:22
Speaker 1: minus one 70 or something on Switzerland, I think in
1:46:25
Speaker 1: one of their games. But other than that, yeah, like
1:46:27
Speaker 1: I'm not playing like massive money line favorites or any,
1:46:29
Speaker 1: these are basically, yeah, these are pretty much spread bets,
1:46:33
Speaker 1: total bets, and you know, very competitive money line prices. Yeah.
1:46:36
Speaker 1: So two 92, 21 and 19 last 213 days is
1:46:40
Speaker 1: what I got going on here. Uh, we've been good
1:46:43
Speaker 1: over the last month as well. Um, I've been doing
1:46:46
Speaker 1: this for, yeah, we're getting close to 20 years that
1:46:48
Speaker 1: I've been doing this now. I've been doing this show
1:46:50
Speaker 1: for three or four years. I mean, you can go back.
1:46:53
Speaker 1: I give out every one of my plays is documented
1:46:56
Speaker 1: here on the show. So, yeah, I like to be
1:46:58
Speaker 1: honest here, you know. Sometimes, yes, sometimes, you know. a
1:47:04
Speaker 1: play will fall right near the number. And I try
1:47:06
Speaker 1: to gauge like, you know, if I gave it out
1:47:08
Speaker 1: at a bad number, I'll, I'll, I'll count it as
1:47:10
Speaker 1: a loss. It depends on like what I said about it.
1:47:12
Speaker 1: Like if I recommended waiting to get a better number
1:47:14
Speaker 1: and that's exactly what I did, maybe I'll count it
1:47:17
Speaker 1: as a win, you know, depending on what it was.
1:47:19
Speaker 1: But yeah, I mean, we're profitable here with this, with
1:47:22
Speaker 1: this record, man. What, what is this? This is like
1:47:24
Speaker 1: probably 57%, I would say. So, um, I don't know
1:47:29
Speaker 1: if that answers your question. Hopefully it does. Um, We win.
1:47:33
Speaker 1: We win on the show here. That's going to do it.
1:47:36
Speaker 1: The two plays that I have today are the Phoenix
1:47:38
Speaker 1: Suns plus three and a half. Dude, you're going to
1:47:41
Speaker 1: disagree with me with most of my plays. This is
1:47:44
Speaker 1: what it's all about. You've got to be contrarian to
1:47:47
Speaker 1: actually profit here. You've got to have balls. You've got
1:47:50
Speaker 1: to fade the public, whatever. You're not going to win
1:47:52
Speaker 1: every single game, but yeah, you got to have the
1:47:55
Speaker 1: stones to make these ugly plays that nobody else is
1:47:58
Speaker 1: going to want, depending on the spot, whatever. But I
1:48:00
Speaker 1: see it and my eyes light up. I'm like, oh yeah,
1:48:02
Speaker 1: this spot is horrific for this other team. So we
1:48:05
Speaker 1: do have Phoenix in NBA plus three and a half.
1:48:08
Speaker 1: We have Central Michigan in the Battle of Michigan, if
1:48:11
Speaker 1: you want to call it that, tonight in the Maction.
1:48:14
Speaker 1: That's plus two or one and a half. Hopefully that
1:48:17
Speaker 1: won't matter that much. We're pretty much taking them to
1:48:19
Speaker 1: win the game, so hopefully that's what happens there. If
1:48:24
Speaker 1: they lose by one, either number will still hit two,
1:48:26
Speaker 1: so that's going to do it. Learn to Tote on Twitter, Instagram, TikTok,
1:48:30
Speaker 1: sort of trying to ramp that up a little bit,
1:48:32
Speaker 1: but they're limiting me. Uh, let's get, dude, we're getting
1:48:36
Speaker 1: an increase in viewership. I like that. We get some
1:48:38
Speaker 1: new faces here. Hopefully you like what I'm doing. I
1:48:40
Speaker 1: appreciate everybody watching, even the haters. Go ahead, man. I'm
1:48:44
Speaker 1: getting a lot of haters on some of my shorts
1:48:45
Speaker 1: and people don't like my, um, plays. I, I tell them, yeah, well,
1:48:50
Speaker 1: you know, eat my shorts. I'm not going to be
1:48:52
Speaker 1: right about everything. And then of course, everybody, you know,
1:48:55
Speaker 1: when people get one right that I don't, everybody comes
1:48:57
Speaker 1: in and they laugh at me on one of the shorts.
1:48:59
Speaker 1: I'm like, dude, that wasn't even one of my plays.
1:49:00
Speaker 1: It was one of my leans and it just made
1:49:03
Speaker 1: for a good clip. So I gave it out as
1:49:04
Speaker 1: a lean. I'm, I'm clear which one of these plays is,
1:49:07
Speaker 1: you know, which one of these things is play like
1:49:09
Speaker 1: an actual play versus which one of them is just
1:49:12
Speaker 1: a lean. You know what I mean? My leads tend
1:49:14
Speaker 1: to do all right too, depending on how strong they are. Um,
1:49:18
Speaker 1: You know, it's just hilarious. Like, nobody will ever come
1:49:21
Speaker 1: back and, you know, talk about my wins. That same
1:49:23
Speaker 1: night where everybody was like, oh, you got the Portland Trailblazers,
1:49:26
Speaker 1: you got the Denver Nuggets wrong against the Portland Trailblazers. Yeah,
1:49:30
Speaker 1: I did. But if you look at how that game
1:49:32
Speaker 1: played out, the Nuggets were winning almost 80% of that game.
1:49:35
Speaker 1: They probably should have won it. So, okay, yeah, I
1:49:38
Speaker 1: got that game wrong. It was just a lean for me.
1:49:41
Speaker 1: The Nuggets could have won that game. They were winning
1:49:43
Speaker 1: by a large margin for most of it, so it
1:49:45
Speaker 1: was a misleading result. And that same night, my actual
1:49:48
Speaker 1: NBA play I gave out was the Sacramento Kings, and
1:49:51
Speaker 1: they won the game outright as a double-digit underdog, and
1:49:54
Speaker 1: they were a winless team at that point. Nobody comes
1:49:57
Speaker 1: in to congratulate me on that one. What are we
1:49:59
Speaker 1: doing here, man? You know what I mean? This is
1:50:02
Speaker 1: just the way that it is. People want to hate,
1:50:04
Speaker 1: but fine. You're going to give me comments, give me views,
1:50:06
Speaker 1: boost the channel. Yeah, let's live in the hate, baby. Yeah,
1:50:11
Speaker 1: let's do it. So, yes, I appreciate it. Everybody watching,
1:50:14
Speaker 1: let's boost this thing up, Toadstool Sports. Yeah, like, review, comment, or, yeah, like, comment, reply,
1:50:21
Speaker 1: I should say, whatever. Can you review YouTube channels? Probably not,
1:50:25
Speaker 1: but whatever. Yeah, do all that. Watch, listen, et cetera.
1:50:28
Speaker 1: We're on audio as well, Apple, Spotify, Spreaker. You can
1:50:32
Speaker 1: review over on those places, so give me a good
1:50:34
Speaker 1: review over there. Get more eyes on this thing. The
1:50:38
Speaker 1: short form clips, like I said, go out on all
1:50:40
Speaker 1: the different platforms pretty much. You can get those there.
1:50:43
Speaker 1: If you want to just know what my best bets are,
1:50:45
Speaker 1: they're there, but they're clips. If you want the full analysis,
1:50:48
Speaker 1: the full explanation, even on those particular plays, you can
1:50:51
Speaker 1: watch the show. I have it separated into chapters so
1:50:53
Speaker 1: you can find the best bets that I put out
1:50:56
Speaker 1: during the show and go to those and watch the
1:50:57
Speaker 1: analysis for those if that's what you want to do
1:50:59
Speaker 1: as well. I reiterate them at the end of the show.
1:51:02
Speaker 1: I appreciate all of it, man, but if you want
1:51:04
Speaker 1: to get all the info I'm giving out. Hopefully it's, uh, informative. Um, yeah, I,
1:51:09
Speaker 1: I might be an idiot, although I don't know. I
1:51:11
Speaker 1: hopefully I'm not. I mean, I don't know. I was
1:51:13
Speaker 1: a math and science guy, computer science major. I was
1:51:16
Speaker 1: high school valedictorian and a fairly substantial class size. So,
1:51:21
Speaker 1: you know, people like to say I'm an idiot.
1:51:23
Speaker 4: Yeah.
1:51:23
Speaker 1: I had a stroke after that. That's probably affecting me
1:51:25
Speaker 1: a little bit, but you know, uh, I'm not actually
1:51:29
Speaker 1: an idiot as much, uh, as much as I might
1:51:31
Speaker 1: seem like one. Um, no, definitely not. Um, What else
1:51:36
Speaker 1: was I about to say? I was very, very good academically,
1:51:39
Speaker 1: at least, let's put it that way, at schools that
1:51:40
Speaker 1: were not really easy either. What else? What was I
1:51:45
Speaker 1: going to say? And, you know, I do software development, which,
1:51:48
Speaker 1: you know, that you can't necessarily, I mean, I guess
1:51:50
Speaker 1: you could be an idiot and kind of squeak your
1:51:52
Speaker 1: way by in that industry, but that's not what I
1:51:55
Speaker 1: was doing. what else was I about to say, oh yeah,
1:52:00
Speaker 1: I gotta plug all the rest of my stuff, I
1:52:01
Speaker 1: do ukulele covers, um, covered in uke on YouTube, that's
1:52:05
Speaker 1: out there too, uh, patreon.com slash learn to tote if
1:52:09
Speaker 1: you want to support me over there, I need to
1:52:10
Speaker 1: come up with better content over there, though I apologize, yeah,
1:52:13
Speaker 1: and you can join as a member here, I need
1:52:15
Speaker 1: to figure out some, like, stuff that I should put
1:52:17
Speaker 1: out for members only, man, um, Yeah, I don't know.
1:52:20
Speaker 1: Maybe some of the special episodes that I do should
1:52:22
Speaker 1: be behind the paywall or something. I've got to figure
1:52:25
Speaker 1: it out. I've got to boost this thing up. There
1:52:27
Speaker 1: may be some show-related merch coming at some point, so
1:52:30
Speaker 1: be on the lookout for that. And I do also
1:52:33
Speaker 1: do Losercast, the comedy podcast that I'm on, although RIP
1:52:38
Speaker 1: to Tower Gang if you want to check out my
1:52:40
Speaker 1: old podcast that I was on. Massively offensive comedy over there. Losercast,
1:52:45
Speaker 1: you know, maybe not so much. We had an episode
1:52:48
Speaker 1: last night.
1:52:48
Speaker 2: I don't know.
1:52:48
Speaker 1: It was fun. We were mostly talking about the midterms,
1:52:52
Speaker 1: and we know who the losers were there. But, yeah,
1:52:56
Speaker 1: that's going to do it. I appreciate it, everyone. What
1:53:02
Speaker 1: are we talking about here? You're going to fade that?
1:53:06
Speaker 1: You're fading Central Michigan? What, uh? well, the line is,
1:53:11
Speaker 1: I don't see a two and a half anywhere. The
1:53:13
Speaker 1: line is Eastern Michigan minus one and a half at
1:53:15
Speaker 1: most spots. If you're going to fade me, you want,
1:53:17
Speaker 1: you want to lay Eastern Michigan one and a half
1:53:20
Speaker 1: or the money line on Eastern, Eastern Michigan, I guess. Um,
1:53:24
Speaker 1: I mean, I wouldn't recommend fading me, uh, because you know, uh, yes, uh,
1:53:30
Speaker 1: I'm getting the five o'clock dude. I got to regrow
1:53:32
Speaker 1: the beard. I shaved it for Halloween and I look
1:53:34
Speaker 1: like a fat, disgusting baby. So You know, that's not good. Obviously,
1:53:39
Speaker 1: I'm not recommending fading me. You can if you want to,
1:53:42
Speaker 1: but you can see what my record is here. I'm
1:53:44
Speaker 1: not going to win every game, but, you know, I
1:53:47
Speaker 1: know what you meant, the 5 o'clock shadow. Yeah, I
1:53:50
Speaker 1: got to get the beard back. It'll happen eventually. Yes, correct. No, no,
1:53:56
Speaker 1: I decrypted it. Yeah, I got it. But, yes, yeah,
1:54:00
Speaker 1: you can fade me, but, you know, you might be right.
1:54:04
Speaker 1: You can come back and make fun of me, whatever, but,
1:54:06
Speaker 1: you know, I don't know. My, my record speaks for itself. Oh,
1:54:10
Speaker 1: you're going to ride with me. All right. Um, you,
1:54:13
Speaker 1: you'd want to take, uh, I'm taking central Michigan. Uh,
1:54:16
Speaker 1: plus two was the best I've found though. And it
1:54:18
Speaker 1: was only at the M lion book. If you know
1:54:21
Speaker 1: which book that is, which might not be available in
1:54:24
Speaker 1: every state. Um, but there's not that much of a
1:54:27
Speaker 1: difference between that and taking, you can take plus one
1:54:29
Speaker 1: and a half, basically like one and a half is
1:54:32
Speaker 1: the predominant number out there right now. It's not much
1:54:34
Speaker 1: of a difference. Um, Yeah, like plus one and a half,
1:54:37
Speaker 1: and then maybe put... I always put some on the
1:54:39
Speaker 1: money line, too, when I play an underdog. I'd put
1:54:41
Speaker 1: 10% of it on the money line, even though plus
1:54:44
Speaker 1: one and a half... Like, the money line's going to
1:54:45
Speaker 1: be small anyway. You could put the whole bet on
1:54:47
Speaker 1: the money line, really. You know, I just like having
1:54:50
Speaker 1: the points in my back pocket. If they're going to
1:54:53
Speaker 1: offer me any points, I'm like, okay, I'll take whatever
1:54:55
Speaker 1: points you're giving me, you know what I mean? And
1:54:58
Speaker 1: then 10% of my bet, when I have an underdog...
1:55:01
Speaker 1: When I have a single-digit underdog, I put 10% of
1:55:04
Speaker 1: the bet on the money line for full disclosure because
1:55:07
Speaker 1: if you're betting it, you're saying that you think that
1:55:09
Speaker 1: underdog has a better chance of winning the game than
1:55:11
Speaker 1: what you're being given. So you get a little bit
1:55:14
Speaker 1: extra in your pocket. That winds up being a little
1:55:16
Speaker 1: bit extra profit long-term with the amount of money line
1:55:19
Speaker 1: hits that you get by doing that. And if it's
1:55:20
Speaker 1: a double-digit underdog, I'll put like 1% to 3% of
1:55:24
Speaker 1: it on the money line. If it's a massive, massive
1:55:26
Speaker 1: underdog like the Gardner-Webb one, the other night, I mean...
1:55:30
Speaker 1: I might not put any on the money line. Usually
1:55:32
Speaker 1: I do just because it's habit and I have to,
1:55:35
Speaker 1: but on one like that, I'll only put like 1%
1:55:38
Speaker 1: of the entire bet on the money line. You know
1:55:40
Speaker 1: what I mean? Uh, cause there's such a little chance
1:55:43
Speaker 1: that they're going to hit on that. Um, yes, sir.
1:55:48
Speaker 1: You could do the money line if you want. Uh, yeah,
1:55:50
Speaker 1: I mean, it's, um, It looks better, yeah, because it's
1:55:52
Speaker 1: plus money. But, yeah, I mean, if I'm saying they're
1:55:54
Speaker 1: going to cover the short point spread here, I'm pretty
1:55:56
Speaker 1: much saying they're going to win, in my opinion. So, yeah, again,
1:56:00
Speaker 1: I think it's better to have the points in your
1:56:03
Speaker 1: back pocket. And then if they lose by one, you'll
1:56:06
Speaker 1: still actually win the game. That is possible, although it's unlikely.
1:56:09
Speaker 1: But it's the MAAC. It's a low-scoring game. It could
1:56:12
Speaker 1: definitely wind up that way. Hopefully it doesn't. Hopefully we
1:56:16
Speaker 1: just get an easier winner with that. But we will see.
1:56:19
Speaker 1: That's going to do it. I appreciate it again, everybody.
1:56:21
Speaker 1: I'll be back tomorrow morning. It'll be the next show,
1:56:24
Speaker 1: and we'll have to, yeah, take a look and figure.
1:56:27
Speaker 1: I don't even know what sports are being played tomorrow, but, yeah,
1:56:29
Speaker 1: we'll see. College basketball is not quite in full swing
1:56:33
Speaker 1: yet because I'd be breaking down a lot of college
1:56:35
Speaker 1: basketball on, like, Tuesdays and Wednesdays if it was really
1:56:37
Speaker 1: in full swing. It's not yet because we had the
1:56:40
Speaker 1: marathon on Monday, but soon that'll be the case. That's
1:56:43
Speaker 1: going to do it, and then, of course, we're going
1:56:45
Speaker 1: to be rolling into the weekend soon, and we're going
1:56:47
Speaker 1: to have a bunch of football content. I like the
1:56:49
Speaker 1: NFL board better than I did last week. I think
1:56:51
Speaker 1: I have at least two plays for the NFL that
1:56:53
Speaker 1: I'm going to give out. One of them I absolutely love,
1:56:56
Speaker 1: and I'm considering playing. It's not the Thursday night game,
1:56:59
Speaker 1: but I am considering playing the Thursday night game as
1:57:01
Speaker 1: well just because I think there's just such an overreaction
1:57:04
Speaker 1: in that game that it's getting a little bit too ridiculous,
1:57:08
Speaker 1: I think. So I don't know. We'll see. But that's
1:57:11
Speaker 1: going to do it for now. Again, I appreciate it, everybody. Peace.
1:57:18
Speaker 3: If the doc starts talking, hand me the phone.
1:57:22
Speaker 1: Let somebody answer.
1:57:25
Speaker 3: Let somebody know you do not have.
1:57:29
Speaker 2: To lose this round alone.
1:57:35
Speaker 4: Oh.
1:57:37
Speaker 2: Hold on, not tonight, not now.
1:57:44
Speaker 3: Hold on, hold on Let me pull you out That
1:57:53
Speaker 3: bad luck bites hard But it don't.
1:57:59
Speaker 2: Get the crown Hold on, hold on Stay with me now.
1:58:09
Speaker 4: Hold on.
1:58:11
Speaker 2: On, hold on, you're still here now