Latest / The SPY Trader / Standoff at the Strait: Markets Await the Deadline

Transcript

Standoff at the Strait: Markets Await the Deadline · The SPY Trader

• 0:00
  Good morning and welcome to another episode of Spy Trader !
• 0:03
  It is 6 am on Tuesday , April 7th , 2026 , out here on the Pacific Coast .
• 0:10
  I am your host , Penny Wise , and I am so glad you are joining me for your morning market checkin .
• 0:16
  Grab your coffee and get comfortable because we are facing a bit of a nailbiter today .
• 0:21
  The big story everyone is talking about is the 8 p.m.
• 0:24
  Eastern Time deadline set by President Trump for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz .
• 0:30
  With the threat of strikes on infrastructure looming if that waterway stays closed , the market is essentially holding its breath .
• 0:38
  Right now , the major indexes are hanging onto some modest gains from a relief rally that started yesterday .
• 0:44
  The S&P 500 , or SPY , is trading around 6,611 , which is up about point four percent .
• 0:53
  We finally snapped a fiveweek losing streak , but we are still well below that alltime high of 7,002 we saw back in January .
• 1:02
  Over on the tech side , the Nasdaq100 , ticker QQQ , gained half a percent yesterday to hit nearly 21,996 , but it is hitting some resistance , which tells us tech investors are definitely in waitandsee mode .
• 1:17
  Essentially , we are looking at a binary outcome tonight .
• 1:21
  If there is a diplomatic fix , we could see a massive rally .
• 1:25
  If things turn toward military action , we might see a quick flight to safety .
• 1:30
  Looking at the sectors , technology showed some real resilience last week .
• 1:35
  Intel , ticker INTC , gave the whole sector a boost after a huge 14.2 billion dollar deal to buy back a stake in its Irish facility .
• 1:45
  On the flip side , energy has been a bit of a headscratcher .
• 1:49
  The energy sector , or XLE , actually fell over five percent last week even though Brent Crude is sitting above 111 dollars a barrel .
• 1:59
  It seems investors were hoping for a deescalation , but as tonight's deadline gets closer , we are seeing renewed pressure on oil prices and stocks like ExxonMobil .
• 2:09
  In the financial world , JPMorgan Chase rose 1.3 percent yesterday after CEO Jamie Dimon’s annual letter .
• 2:18
  He praised the economy's resilience but gave us a little headsup that asset prices are historically high right now .
• 2:25
  We also have to keep our eyes on the macro picture .
• 2:29
  This Friday , April 10th , we are expecting the March CPI report .
• 2:34
  Forecasts are suggesting inflation might jump to a 3.4 percent annual rate because of the Iran war premium hitting fuel and transport costs .
• 2:43
  This makes the Federal Reserve's plan for a rate cut later this year look a lot more uncertain while they hold the funds rate at 3.5 to 3.75 percent .
• 2:53
  On the company front , keep an eye on Levi Strauss , ticker LEVI .
• 2:59
  They report earnings today , and things have been tough for them as people pull back on spending .
• 3:04
  Tomorrow , we get news from Delta Air Lines , where investors want to see how they are handling high jet fuel prices during a travel boom .
• 3:13
  And for the longterm watchers , UnitedHealth Group is looking at an April 21st earnings date as a big recovery test after a rough year .
• 3:22
  So , what do we do with all this ?
• 3:25
  My first recommendation for today is to look at hedging your risks with SPDR Gold Shares , ticker GLD .
• 3:32
  Gold has jumped seven percent in a week , and it acts as a great hard asset protection when geopolitical risks are this high .
• 3:40
  For tech , if you want to stay involved , Intel or the broad tech fund XLK are options , but I would keep those positions light since the QQQ is struggling with resistance .
• 3:52
  If you are looking for defensive quality , the financial sector fund XLF or JPMorgan Chase are solid because banks often benefit from these higher interest rates .
• 4:03
  Lastly , you might look at diversifying outside the U.S.
• 4:07
  conflict zone with the Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets ETF , ticker VEA .
• 4:13
  Some international markets are showing great resilience right now .
• 4:17
  Overall , today is about capital preservation .
• 4:21
  It is okay to hold your core positions like VOO or VTI , but it might be smart to lean into gold for protection against tonight’s deadline .
• 4:30
  Avoid the risky discretionary stocks like Levi until we see where inflation is headed .
• 4:37
  Stay safe out there , traders , and I will see you in a few hours for the next update !