Latest / Bloomberg Intelligence / Markets, ETFs, Travel, And Top Gun (Podcast)

Transcript

Markets, ETFs, Travel, And Top Gun (Podcast) · Bloomberg Intelligence

0:00
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney alongside
0:04
Speaker 1: my co host Matt Miller. Every business day we bring
0:06
Speaker 1: you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, along
0:11
Speaker 1: with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets Podcast
0:15
Speaker 1: on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts, and
0:18
Speaker 1: at Bloomberg dot com slash podcast. Well, our next guest
0:22
Speaker 1: is all in the state of Kentucky. We've got an
0:25
Speaker 1: undergraduate degree from the University of Kentucky, Wildcats NBA, from
0:29
Speaker 1: the University of Louisville, the Cardinals. I don't know who
0:32
Speaker 1: he roots for during hoops season. Ross Mayfield Investment Strategy
0:35
Speaker 1: annals for Bared Wealth Management, Ross Louisville Place, Kentucky. Who
0:39
Speaker 1: do you root for? It's Kentucky, highest times out of Kentucky,
0:43
Speaker 1: high times out of that's strong. That's a strong. Yeah,
0:47
Speaker 1: they get some strong support there, dude. UK. I met
0:50
Speaker 1: Rick Pettino when I was a kid looking at UK.
0:54
Speaker 1: Really yeah, how'd that go? It was awesome? I Mean
0:57
Speaker 1: I wasn't Ohio State fan obviously, but love Kentucky. Love
1:02
Speaker 1: going down to Lexington and uh yeah, hey, Ross, what
1:04
Speaker 1: do you make of this thirty year bond, it's two
1:06
Speaker 1: point seven nine percent. I thought we were just at
1:09
Speaker 1: like three point three three point four. What's going on
1:11
Speaker 1: in the bottom market. What's that telling us? Uh? Growth
1:15
Speaker 1: scare right, It's telling us that the market is finally
1:18
Speaker 1: convinced that the set is I'm going to do whatever
1:21
Speaker 1: it takes. And increasingly that looks like, you know, some
1:25
Speaker 1: sort of recession, whether it's mild or not is up
1:28
Speaker 1: for debate, but I think there's you know that you
1:30
Speaker 1: talk talk about copper, talk about treasure, you olds, talk
1:33
Speaker 1: about other industrial medals, all of them are reflecting, um
1:36
Speaker 1: increased odds of a of a recession and of a
1:39
Speaker 1: big growth turned down. So I think that's that's what
1:41
Speaker 1: it is. And at the same time, you know, increasing
1:43
Speaker 1: odds that because of that, we can kind of you know,
1:46
Speaker 1: defeat this inflation. Uh, you know, within the next twelve
1:50
Speaker 1: months or so. I was looking. We've been talking about
1:53
Speaker 1: the Michael Burry tweet. I don't know if you saw
1:55
Speaker 1: it UM yesterday, but he said basically, the first half
1:59
Speaker 1: was awful. SMP down, NASAC down thirty five, bit coming
2:03
Speaker 1: down six says that was at least in terms of
2:06
Speaker 1: stocks multiple compression. Next up is earnings compression, so he says,
2:11
Speaker 1: maybe we're halfway there. Not to be fair, he calls
2:13
Speaker 1: himself Cassandra, he's a little bit dramatic about this kind
2:16
Speaker 1: of thing, But, um, how much do you think earnings
2:20
Speaker 1: will be hit? Well, you don't get movies made about
2:25
Speaker 1: you if you're not a little bit dramatic. I guess
2:27
Speaker 1: you know, I think earnings will take a hit, right,
2:30
Speaker 1: So currently I think I think the estimate for SMP
2:35
Speaker 1: earnings it's still something like two fifty, which is which
2:39
Speaker 1: is ish growth. Um at a minimum, if you're looking
2:43
Speaker 1: at even a minor re session economics light down, that
2:45
Speaker 1: probably has to be flat or slightly down. You know,
2:47
Speaker 1: the average recession earnings contractions is like plus on the
2:52
Speaker 1: on the downside usually or on average. So you know,
2:56
Speaker 1: even if you saw something like five, you know, kind
2:59
Speaker 1: of earnings contracts in the the next year, um, that
3:01
Speaker 1: would be meaningful. Versus where estimates are now, you're starting
3:04
Speaker 1: to see kind of one by one. Uh. You know,
3:08
Speaker 1: companies come out with guidance that's a little bit lower,
3:10
Speaker 1: a little bit more hesitant. But I think as we
3:12
Speaker 1: get into this this next earning season, you'll start to
3:14
Speaker 1: see it um kind of in mass, and the question
3:17
Speaker 1: would just be is it is downside or is downside?
3:22
Speaker 1: What are they seeing in real time as far as
3:24
Speaker 1: the consumer goes as far as investment goes um, because
3:29
Speaker 1: I think that's the big question. Right. Consumers held up
3:31
Speaker 1: pretty well, but there's there's a lot of pressure, right.
3:34
Speaker 1: I mean, Lisa Shaalott from Morgan Stanley was saying, you
3:39
Speaker 1: know what, this kind of inflation driven recession isn't going
3:43
Speaker 1: to be as bad as the kind of credit driven
3:46
Speaker 1: recession that we had in two thousand and eight, and
3:47
Speaker 1: that was a profit decline of fifty seven percent, So
3:51
Speaker 1: she says, we're not likely to see anything that bad.
3:54
Speaker 1: But I just wonder if stocks can get hit as
3:56
Speaker 1: hard we're down, can we really fall fifty percent by
4:00
Speaker 1: the end of this thing. I think a lot of
4:03
Speaker 1: the pain is priced in. I think there's I think
4:06
Speaker 1: earnings pain is already priced into stocks now. Estimates still
4:10
Speaker 1: have to come down, but you know, I think the
4:12
Speaker 1: market is sniffing that out ahead of time. Yeah, I
4:15
Speaker 1: think there could be a further leg down, but I
4:18
Speaker 1: would be surprised if they were that big of a
4:19
Speaker 1: sell off for the reason that you mentioned it's, you know,
4:22
Speaker 1: there's nothing seemingly systemic that's wrong. Um. You know, big
4:26
Speaker 1: valuation compression obviously, and inflation is hitting you know, the
4:30
Speaker 1: consumer and companies in all sorts of ways. But um,
4:33
Speaker 1: we're still in a pretty decent position as far as profitability,
4:37
Speaker 1: as far as earnings. You know, profit margins are rolling over,
4:40
Speaker 1: but they're still elevated. The consumer is strained, but you
4:43
Speaker 1: still have that a couple of trillion, and aggregate savings UM,
4:46
Speaker 1: wage growth is still there. The job market is still
4:48
Speaker 1: white hot. So one of the things we've been talking
4:51
Speaker 1: about is, you know, recessions don't always look like the
4:53
Speaker 1: last two. They don't always look like oh eight in
4:55
Speaker 1: the coronavirus crash where GDP falls off a cliff, things
4:59
Speaker 1: are catast d optick. There's a history of much more
5:01
Speaker 1: kind of mild recessions UM, and I think that's probably
5:05
Speaker 1: what we're headed for. Given worth the starting point, Ross,
5:08
Speaker 1: what's the question you're getting most often from your bared
5:11
Speaker 1: wealth management clients you know at this point, And I
5:16
Speaker 1: think it's reflective of the past few selloffs and bear
5:20
Speaker 1: markets have really been v shaped in nature, and this
5:23
Speaker 1: one is much more grinding. Already a couple of headsake
5:25
Speaker 1: bear market alleyes. So the biggest question is when does this,
5:28
Speaker 1: When does this end? Where's the bottom? And you know,
5:31
Speaker 1: obviously that's a borderline impossible question to answer. But given
5:35
Speaker 1: that there's still probably some some earnings pay to come,
5:38
Speaker 1: given that we haven't really seen the kind of capitulation
5:40
Speaker 1: that you'd want to see out of stocks, you know,
5:42
Speaker 1: at the top um mentioning that the VIX is still
5:45
Speaker 1: sub thirty. You know, when the markets in a bear
5:47
Speaker 1: market is pretty wild. Um, you just haven't seen that capitulations.
5:50
Speaker 1: They want to know where the bottom is. But the
5:52
Speaker 1: reality is that bear markets outside of the kind of
5:55
Speaker 1: q E era are are much longer. You know, it's
5:58
Speaker 1: twelve eighteen month processes. And so that's what we're getting
6:01
Speaker 1: folks accustomed with is kind of setting that expectation that
6:04
Speaker 1: this could be a longer slog um, you know, much
6:07
Speaker 1: like maybe dot Com but the the past. All right, Ross,
6:10
Speaker 1: good stuff, Appreciate you're taking the time here. On a
6:13
Speaker 1: Friday before July four, Ross Mayfield, investment strategy analyst for
6:17
Speaker 1: BARED Wealth Management, be A, University of Kentucky, NBA from Louisville.
6:22
Speaker 1: That's a good basketball rivalry down there. Have you ever
6:25
Speaker 1: been to Kentucky? I have great bowling Green. I'm a
6:27
Speaker 1: big fan of Bowling Green Kentucky. Now you bring in
6:34
Speaker 1: Katie and I have no idea what's going on with
6:36
Speaker 1: her story here? Well, here's the d I mean, she's
6:39
Speaker 1: in her student Katie Greifeld Cross reporters in our studio.
6:42
Speaker 1: By the way, story Cross asset reporter. Uh. I don't
6:46
Speaker 1: even think it does her justice. She is an absolute
6:50
Speaker 1: expert at the world of E t F s. She
6:52
Speaker 1: also knows what she's talking about when comes to crypto.
6:55
Speaker 1: She's got like seventy five thousand followers on Twitter, and
7:01
Speaker 1: she's just generally a markets news hound. Okay, Now, I
7:05
Speaker 1: told my boss is listening. Even dummies like me and
7:11
Speaker 1: Paul know that it has been a bad time for bonds.
7:16
Speaker 1: I mean, we've never seen anything like this. Investors that
7:19
Speaker 1: normally thought, oh, this is where I go for safety
7:22
Speaker 1: are now thinking where in the hell can I go? Right?
7:25
Speaker 1: And what you're saying is a lot of them have
7:27
Speaker 1: chosen E t F s. A lot of them have
7:29
Speaker 1: chosen E t F So this is something that always happens.
7:32
Speaker 1: You have sort of this moment in markets, and E
7:34
Speaker 1: t F issuers rushed to capture it. So the current
7:37
Speaker 1: shiny object among E t F issuers right now is
7:40
Speaker 1: income E t F. So the strategies vary a little bit,
7:43
Speaker 1: but in all of them, at least the most recent filings,
7:46
Speaker 1: it seems to be that either of these funds invest
7:49
Speaker 1: in equities that offer dividends, or they write some sort
7:54
Speaker 1: of call writing strategy on the s. Give us some tickers.
7:57
Speaker 1: We like tickers here, okay, so, and also we love this.
8:01
Speaker 1: To me, it's a great story because it brings together
8:04
Speaker 1: two of my favorite functions we love on this show.
8:06
Speaker 1: I n GO shows you all the indexes and it's
8:10
Speaker 1: a great search tool, and we love E t F GO.
8:12
Speaker 1: We do love I know, honestly, it's probably the best,
8:16
Speaker 1: my favorite function at Bloomberg. But in any case, in
8:18
Speaker 1: just the past few weeks, you've had three of these
8:20
Speaker 1: funds launched U d I T U g N N
8:24
Speaker 1: J p r E. But there's one that really taught
8:29
Speaker 1: U g N is a good one. Growth in income
8:32
Speaker 1: E t F tickers are fun. But the fund that
8:35
Speaker 1: caught my it actually launched in the last two years.
8:38
Speaker 1: It's the JP Morgan Equity Premium Income e t F.
8:41
Speaker 1: The reason that I came across this fund, Matt, was
8:44
Speaker 1: because we talked to Brian Lake of JP Morgan on
8:48
Speaker 1: the E t F Show this week and we were
8:50
Speaker 1: talking about income funds super hot. So I decided to
8:52
Speaker 1: try and put some numbers to that. This JP Morgan
8:54
Speaker 1: Equity Premium jp J e p I. It is one
8:58
Speaker 1: of the biggest income funds out there. It's seen inflows
9:01
Speaker 1: of over five billion dollars this year for relatively new
9:04
Speaker 1: fund that doesn't really happen all too often, and it's
9:08
Speaker 1: in the top ten of equity e t F and
9:10
Speaker 1: flows so far this year. Well, income funds seem like
9:14
Speaker 1: they should be sustainable. Like I think about the e
9:16
Speaker 1: t F world, your e t F world, Eric about
9:18
Speaker 1: tunis et F world. It's very niche. You know, whatever
9:21
Speaker 1: is the spright shiny object, Let's create an e t
9:24
Speaker 1: F for that. But income funds are universal, it seems
9:27
Speaker 1: to me. Yeah, And so a lot of this is
9:29
Speaker 1: sort of repackaging the idea, trying to make you know,
9:32
Speaker 1: just following dividends seem exciting. Well, it's but here's the
9:37
Speaker 1: key and Jack Bogel might himself love this. In order
9:41
Speaker 1: to stay on top of um an income stocks portfolio,
9:45
Speaker 1: you occasionally have to trade in and out right. That
9:48
Speaker 1: costs money. A mutual fund would maybe give you a
9:51
Speaker 1: little bit less of a cost, but you're still paying
9:54
Speaker 1: the manager. With an e t F, you get the
9:56
Speaker 1: cost down even further, so you're able to have this
10:00
Speaker 1: uh bonds like return without having to pay the equity
10:06
Speaker 1: trading fees is left the pitch. That's the pitch. So
10:10
Speaker 1: if you look at Jeff for example, it's an actively
10:12
Speaker 1: traded e t F charges just thirty five basis points.
10:16
Speaker 1: That's pretty cheap. But to your point that these are
10:19
Speaker 1: offering bond like returns, that's sort of the angle that
10:22
Speaker 1: I drilled into into this piece because it sounds really
10:25
Speaker 1: good that you get income without sort of the drama
10:28
Speaker 1: that's going on in the bond market right now. But
10:29
Speaker 1: I was talking to um ben Levine. He's over at
10:32
Speaker 1: three D Asset Management Group. He was actually also on
10:34
Speaker 1: the et F show, but I had COVID for that episode.
10:36
Speaker 1: But in any case, he made the point that these
10:41
Speaker 1: are sort of equity beta in income clothing. These are
10:45
Speaker 1: not the bonds sort of portfolio diversification, sort of layers
10:51
Speaker 1: of your portfolio. Basically, you shouldn't be using this as
10:54
Speaker 1: a substitute for fixed income. And the worry, at least
10:57
Speaker 1: for him and some of the other people I talked to,
10:58
Speaker 1: was that investors will basically, so this is the to
11:01
Speaker 1: be sure paragraph. This is the actually made the whole article,
11:05
Speaker 1: the to be sure because again this is the shiny
11:08
Speaker 1: object of the moment. You see a lot of issuers
11:10
Speaker 1: chasing this. This is a typical be in construction. They'll
11:13
Speaker 1: have the first, you know, four paragraphs of the story
11:16
Speaker 1: investors are switching into urn rather than bonds. And then
11:21
Speaker 1: in the second, after the after the page, it'll say
11:25
Speaker 1: to be sure, and then they give you the which
11:28
Speaker 1: is really like secrets, that is that is it's important
11:34
Speaker 1: though to introduce a little bit of skepticism. Of course,
11:37
Speaker 1: these are the high flyers right now, which really speaks
11:40
Speaker 1: to the mood of the market, that just dividend funds
11:42
Speaker 1: are the high flyers right now. But again, these aren't bonds,
11:46
Speaker 1: and if you're looking to diversify your portfolio, I mean,
11:49
Speaker 1: maybe you should still keep bonds in it. You want
11:51
Speaker 1: to be safe. And by the way, I know a
11:54
Speaker 1: crypto fund that will pay you like, oh, tell me
11:57
Speaker 1: about that? Kidding it crash okay, alright, so all right,
12:02
Speaker 1: so talk to us like e t F fund flows.
12:05
Speaker 1: Given this first half of the year, where you know,
12:07
Speaker 1: the s andps down twenty plus percent, bonds are down
12:10
Speaker 1: double digits, how have the e t F flow has been?
12:13
Speaker 1: What have you seen in terms of trends? So it's
12:15
Speaker 1: brutal out there. We're actually just talking about it on
12:17
Speaker 1: the ten am show on BTV. Basically, if you look
12:20
Speaker 1: at where the money went in the first half, Spy
12:24
Speaker 1: that is the state street spider sputf in the world.
12:28
Speaker 1: We all know it, the O G B O G.
12:31
Speaker 1: But it's relatively expensive. It costs ten basis points, whereas
12:34
Speaker 1: if you look at Vanguards answer to spy voo v
12:38
Speaker 1: o o uh, it costs three basis points. So Spy
12:41
Speaker 1: loss about twenty three basis points. It's a great question. Well,
12:47
Speaker 1: Vanguard is special. They have their mutual ownership model. They
12:50
Speaker 1: don't really need to make money. Okay, bo actually manages
12:54
Speaker 1: it from heaven. That's how that's how they do it. Yeah,
12:59
Speaker 1: but in any case, you saw maybe twenty six billion
13:02
Speaker 1: dollars come out of Spy um and about that much
13:06
Speaker 1: going into do right exactly, So perhaps people exiting the
13:09
Speaker 1: market and then trying to come back in, we're going
13:11
Speaker 1: into the cheaper products. So the Vanguard products did pretty
13:15
Speaker 1: well this first half again because they cost absolutely nothing.
13:19
Speaker 1: But I mean you saw outflows from broader SMP five
13:22
Speaker 1: hundred tracking funds that weren't Vanguard, from high yield funds,
13:25
Speaker 1: from financials, basically everything. This is actually I'm just using
13:30
Speaker 1: that e t F go function, Matt, and I just
13:33
Speaker 1: saw something that actually is pretty cool. You know, the
13:36
Speaker 1: year to date cash outflows of spy twenty five point
13:40
Speaker 1: five billion and then inflows into Voot four billions. That's there.
13:48
Speaker 1: You just, yeah, I could see it with you weren't
13:51
Speaker 1: lying there. What I what I wanted to actually ask
13:55
Speaker 1: Brian Lake last week and what I want to actually
13:58
Speaker 1: this week? Oh it was this week. That's it. It
14:00
Speaker 1: was just Monday. Uh. And this is something that maybe
14:02
Speaker 1: we can talk about on our E t F show
14:04
Speaker 1: Wednesday at one pm. Um. Is it a good thing
14:08
Speaker 1: to have these two, this duopoly in E t F
14:11
Speaker 1: because it's like black Rock and Vanguard are pretty much it. Yeah,
14:16
Speaker 1: State Street used to be the solid number three, but
14:18
Speaker 1: they've been sort of straggling in recent years. I can't
14:22
Speaker 1: answer that question. We should ask the next work on
14:24
Speaker 1: it with the big Wednesday. Yeah, next week, all right,
14:28
Speaker 1: Katie Grayfeld, crossset reporter Bloomberg. Well, I'm almos gonna say
14:32
Speaker 1: Bloomberg quick take. Maybe we have to rewrite that. Eric,
14:39
Speaker 1: let's switch gears. Talk about travel. It's gonna be a
14:41
Speaker 1: big travel weekend this weekend. I'm just driving down to
14:44
Speaker 1: the Jersey Shore. No other place I'd rather be, but
14:47
Speaker 1: a lot of people are hopping on planes and trains
14:49
Speaker 1: and automobiles and stuff like that. It's check in with
14:51
Speaker 1: Alicia Kapoor, senior industry manager at similar Web. Alicia, how
14:57
Speaker 1: busy is it gonna be out there? What's this summer
14:58
Speaker 1: going to be like? Given some of the travel challenges
15:01
Speaker 1: that are out there? You know, this weekend is really
15:04
Speaker 1: really busy, and I'm seeing that in person. I'm actually
15:07
Speaker 1: talking to you from Poland, Um, where I'm here for
15:09
Speaker 1: a wedding and a lot of Yeah, Poland UM, I'm
15:12
Speaker 1: in I'm not going to pronounce it right, but it's
15:14
Speaker 1: called um. So I'm here for a wedding and a
15:18
Speaker 1: lot of guests are delayed, and we are seeing just
15:21
Speaker 1: in terms of search volume, that consumers are seeing a
15:24
Speaker 1: lot of cancelations, especially for flights, and search volume for
15:28
Speaker 1: airline cancelations rose between thirty four and six over the
15:33
Speaker 1: past twenty eight days, with most searches going to American airlines.
15:38
Speaker 1: And we're actually seeing that American Airlines has the highest
15:40
Speaker 1: share of traffic to its cancelation pages online UM and
15:45
Speaker 1: they've really had a high share of traffic to those
15:48
Speaker 1: cancelation pages since about May, and most airlines are seeing
15:53
Speaker 1: increased traffic. I think it's really just staffing issues are
15:56
Speaker 1: getting in the way. People weren't expecting this resurgence and
15:59
Speaker 1: demand and a lot of people are trying to travel now,
16:03
Speaker 1: um maybe before we get into an environment where prices
16:07
Speaker 1: are even more UM volatile, right. I think there's a
16:10
Speaker 1: lot of price sensitivity that's coming into the picture right now.
16:13
Speaker 1: So they're worried about they're worried about coming inflation. Yeah,
16:18
Speaker 1: I think people are worried about coming inflation. I was
16:20
Speaker 1: actually talking to a client yesterday that said they're seeing
16:23
Speaker 1: really high bookings for next summer because people are trying
16:26
Speaker 1: to pay with payment plans or kind of put off
16:29
Speaker 1: the pricing because they can't afford this summer. So, you know,
16:33
Speaker 1: you're in EUROPEO. We've heard some stories that just some
16:35
Speaker 1: strikes and it's you know, as bad as this travel
16:38
Speaker 1: is here, it's even worse than Europe. What are you seeing? Yeah,
16:41
Speaker 1: it's a great question. I was actually in London before
16:44
Speaker 1: this there was a tube strike. It was a little
16:46
Speaker 1: bit stressful. But we are seeing that bookings in Europe
16:49
Speaker 1: for top brands are declining into June UM with only
16:54
Speaker 1: booking dot Com actually seeing an increase in daily lodging
16:57
Speaker 1: bookings month over months since May. And that picture is
17:00
Speaker 1: really different in the US. UM the U S we're
17:03
Speaker 1: seeing that all brands are seeing an increase in bookings.
17:06
Speaker 1: So I think you're right. Europe is seeing more struggles
17:08
Speaker 1: than the United States, and unfortunately it is impacting bookings
17:12
Speaker 1: across the board. All right, Alicia, thanks so much. We
17:16
Speaker 1: appreciate that, especially coming from Poland. Enjoy the wedding over
17:19
Speaker 1: the careful of the Russians. Yeah, be careful right there,
17:23
Speaker 1: they're right there, But NATO is right there. I gotta
17:26
Speaker 1: tell you something. I moved to London about twenty years ago,
17:29
Speaker 1: and I lived there for a few years, some of
17:31
Speaker 1: the greatest years of my life. Sure, because it's a
17:33
Speaker 1: great town and because I was young. But um, there's
17:38
Speaker 1: literally always a tube strike. Yes, it's a constant thing.
17:42
Speaker 1: It's not now or last year, is not COVID or
17:45
Speaker 1: pre pandemic. It's a constant, always a tube strike. And
17:48
Speaker 1: I feel the same thing with like air France or
17:50
Speaker 1: you know, are you know air it Tally or something
17:52
Speaker 1: like exactly all right, that's Alicia, senior industry manager for
17:58
Speaker 1: a similar web bringing. Uh. I think it's fair to
18:04
Speaker 1: say a friend of the show. You've interviewed Mark Douglas,
18:06
Speaker 1: president CEO of Mountain a number of times. Mountain is
18:09
Speaker 1: a company that builds advertising software for brands. They have
18:13
Speaker 1: something to do with the guy from Deadpool and UM, Mark,
18:17
Speaker 1: I was reading your on your blog. There is a
18:20
Speaker 1: story about UM. I think Melissa Yapp wrote a story
18:24
Speaker 1: about UM. The fact that you can recession proof your
18:28
Speaker 1: streaming business by offering ads. We know that, UM, We've
18:31
Speaker 1: already seen that from Hulu and now we're expecting to
18:34
Speaker 1: see it from Netflix. Uh does it not drive away?
18:37
Speaker 1: Do do consumers not care about ads. Um, I think
18:43
Speaker 1: consumers have demonstrated that they are willing to basically exchange
18:49
Speaker 1: viewing of ads for a lower price. And so if
18:52
Speaker 1: you look at Hulu, who you mentioned as an example,
18:55
Speaker 1: I mean it's only cluss I think two dollars to
18:59
Speaker 1: avoid advertising on Hulu and to take greater on that,
19:02
Speaker 1: meaning the number of people who elect that option is actually,
19:06
Speaker 1: you know, less than half of the consumers. I think
19:08
Speaker 1: it is as low as like about. So I think
19:10
Speaker 1: consumers have said, you know that that's a really good
19:13
Speaker 1: trade off. But then you know, you want to add
19:15
Speaker 1: to the entertaining, which is what you know Ryan is
19:18
Speaker 1: all about as part of mountains. So that's that's that's
19:21
Speaker 1: an important part of it too. So Mark, I mean
19:25
Speaker 1: I'm looking at some of these media names and where
19:27
Speaker 1: the stocks are just getting crushed along with everything else. Here.
19:30
Speaker 1: One of the challenges, I guess Mark, is kind of
19:32
Speaker 1: how is this whole streaming business gonna shake out? I
19:35
Speaker 1: mean even our friends and Netflix stocks down six on
19:38
Speaker 1: a trailing twelve month basis. What's the how how do
19:41
Speaker 1: you think investors are thinking about just the streaming business?
19:44
Speaker 1: Is it a good business? Um? I think it's an
19:48
Speaker 1: next on business, and you know, the thing that's interesting
19:51
Speaker 1: right now is it's really started to stabilize. Obviously, Netflix
19:55
Speaker 1: and Hulu kind of pioneered streaming itself, and then you
20:00
Speaker 1: saw this kind of steady set of companies enter the business,
20:04
Speaker 1: and that created uncertainty in terms of market share. Who's
20:07
Speaker 1: gonna you know, what services are different consumers gonna sign
20:11
Speaker 1: up for. At this point, especially in the US, every
20:15
Speaker 1: service that you're going to have available to you is
20:17
Speaker 1: essentially out there. Disney Plus, Decock, Netflix, They're all out there,
20:22
Speaker 1: and I think there's a bit of uncertainty to see
20:24
Speaker 1: where consumers wind up in terms of what are the
20:27
Speaker 1: services that they have in their core diet of viewing,
20:31
Speaker 1: and so that uncertainty is affecting stocks. Netflix has kind
20:36
Speaker 1: of in some ways a good problem to have, but
20:38
Speaker 1: obviously when it comes to stock prices, no problem is great,
20:41
Speaker 1: which is they have so many consumers I think over
20:44
Speaker 1: seventy market share that it's just hard for them to
20:48
Speaker 1: grow that business in the US, and I think the
20:50
Speaker 1: stock has been penalized probably more than it should be
20:54
Speaker 1: for that, you know, for that kind of a problem,
20:57
Speaker 1: which is like everyone's already using our survey The interesting
21:02
Speaker 1: thing to me, Mark is that you what your business.
21:06
Speaker 1: For example of you're you have a B two B piece, right,
21:10
Speaker 1: and and you're trying to help your companies generate more
21:13
Speaker 1: leads get more demand by placing their ads in the
21:15
Speaker 1: right places. So you are equally as interested in finding
21:20
Speaker 1: out which services are doing the best to connect with
21:23
Speaker 1: customers as an investor is um to find out which
21:27
Speaker 1: one is the best bet for the for the future,
21:29
Speaker 1: for sustainability. Right, So what are you seeing as the
21:31
Speaker 1: big standout winners here for for your customers? Well, the
21:36
Speaker 1: in terms of in terms well really, let's back up
21:39
Speaker 1: just like that. The way to look at this is
21:41
Speaker 1: that the television advertising market is on to monetize. It
21:45
Speaker 1: has more users than social more people watch television that
21:49
Speaker 1: even than use social um by by small amount. It
21:52
Speaker 1: has three times the engagement people spend three hours a
21:55
Speaker 1: day or more watching TV. But somehow it has less
21:59
Speaker 1: revenue than a social media market. Then social advertising does.
22:02
Speaker 1: So that's an opportunity, right, Well, this because television been
22:08
Speaker 1: dominated by you know, just like five thousand big advertisers,
22:12
Speaker 1: while someone like Meta has millions of advertisers. So what
22:17
Speaker 1: MOUND does is we're bringing television to every size company,
22:21
Speaker 1: and then by doing that, we're literally expanding the market
22:24
Speaker 1: for television advertising. And I think if you are an
22:26
Speaker 1: investor looking at streaming, looking at TV, that's what you
22:30
Speaker 1: should be focused on. This market can expand we can
22:34
Speaker 1: bring more advertising market with more hours of engagement and
22:37
Speaker 1: literally expanding market for television advertising. And so Mound is
22:41
Speaker 1: contributing to that. And I think the future for these
22:44
Speaker 1: media companies and these media stocks are bright as they
22:47
Speaker 1: embrace that that streaming we can now bring all all
22:52
Speaker 1: these new companies into that market. All right, Mark, good
22:55
Speaker 1: good stuff. As always appreciate you taking the time here
22:58
Speaker 1: on this Friday before your life fourth long weekend. Mark Douglas,
23:01
Speaker 1: President and CEO of Mountain, Thanks for listening to the
23:08
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Markets podcast. You can subscribe and listen to interviews
23:12
Speaker 1: with Apple Podcasts or whatever podcast platform you prefer. I'm
23:16
Speaker 1: Matt Miller. I'm on Twitter at Matt Miller, p on
23:20
Speaker 1: Fall Sweeney, I'm on Twitter at pt Sweeney. Before the podcast,
23:24
Speaker 1: you can always catch us worldwide at Bloomberg Radio