Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 238 - 3/17/25 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

Transcript

Episode 238 - 3/17/25 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

0:18
Hello, and welcome to episode 238 of the All Systems Go sports
0:25
Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
0:28
I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on everyone?
0:36
Happy Monday. A new week begins as we enter
0:39
the second-half of March, but I buried the lead.
0:42
This is one of the most important and greatest times of
0:45
the year this week right here upon us.
0:48
The calm before the storm, March Madness officially underway.
0:52
I don't know if you can call it underway, it's about to be
0:54
underway, but we had Selection Sunday yesterday.
0:57
We've announced all the teams that have won their conference
0:59
tournaments, the at large bids. We have that beautiful, amazing
1:03
bracket that we can print out and put in the palm of our
1:06
hands. And remember, we're going to
1:07
continue to talk about the importance of creating a
1:09
contrarian bracket, which I've hit on before.
1:12
But that just means when you get your bracket, you don't start
1:14
from them outside and work your way in.
1:16
You start in and work your way out.
1:19
The whole point being that you got to be different from
1:21
everyone else If you are going to win your bracket, you're
1:24
going to win your pool. If you're just like everybody
1:26
else, betting Duke or betting Auburn to win the whole thing,
1:30
maybe if they win the whole thing, you might not even win
1:32
your bracket. So the important thing is to
1:33
differentiate, differentiate yourself from everyone else.
1:37
And that means picking a champion that mostly everyone
1:40
else isn't picking or maybe a few people are, but not many.
1:43
So I mentioned Duke is the probably the most popular pick
1:47
to win it all. We saw obviously Cooper flag
1:49
sprain his ankle. He should be OK, but they're
1:51
plus 3:20 to win the title. Auburn's right behind him plus
1:55
350, Florida plus 380. So I would assume, you know,
1:58
vast majority. And if you were in a bracket
2:00
league like, you know, Yahoo or ESPN and they report the
2:04
champion, the percentage, you know, I'm going to, I'm going to
2:07
assume and guess and we'll probably be pretty accurate with
2:09
this, that the vast majority are going to pick either Duke or
2:12
Auburn to win the national title with a little bit of Florida
2:16
mixed in as well. That means you got to be
2:17
different from everyone else. So Florida would be your slight
2:20
contrarian play to win it all. Houston is really the the 4th
2:24
best odds of +600. That might be might be the best
2:27
contrarian pick because they're still right up there is one of
2:30
the favorites, but they're not quite as popular as Duke, Auburn
2:33
and and Florida. I was actually hoping that
2:35
Florida would kind of lose their conference tournament because
2:37
they're just playing so well now they're becoming a bit of a
2:39
trendy play. I was hoping to kind of play the
2:41
Gators under the radar, but hey, that's not that's no longer the
2:45
case. But anyway, guys, we'll talk
2:46
more about contrarian brackets. We have a few days to let the
2:49
dust settle, but I do have 3 early leans, including one bet
2:53
that I've already made on the first round of the NCA
2:56
tournament. So we'll talk a little March
2:57
Madness and then I noticed we have no college hoops tonight.
3:00
So we've been grinding our three pack of college plays for quite
3:03
a while at this point. But as sports bettors, that
3:06
means we got a pivot. We're going to look toward the
3:07
NBA and the NHL tonight. Getting back to our roots.
3:10
I got 3 plays overall. I got two NBA totals and one NHL
3:15
side. So if you were looking for
3:16
college hoops today, all we can do is do our homework and talk
3:19
about these games. Nothing to get down on tonight,
3:22
although starting tomorrow we'll have some other games we can bet
3:24
and then we'll have the 1st, 4:00.
3:26
The play in those will be available as well.
3:28
We're going to get back to NBA, NHL, which to me are two of the
3:32
tougher sports to handicap. We're going to test our luck
3:34
tonight, see if we can produce a winning night.
3:37
So that being said, let's start off with some early March
3:40
Madness thoughts and leans because the bracket, as I
3:42
mentioned, is out and there's their lines that are up, lines
3:46
are moving. So let's focus on a few games
3:48
very early that already caught my eye in terms of some good
3:51
line early line moves. And I think it's important to
3:53
remember too, like, you know, a lot of these games aren't being
3:56
bet right now by the betting public because the public is
3:59
more interested in filling out their bracket.
4:01
They're not really betting these games yet.
4:03
They're going to bet these games later in the week, the closer we
4:05
get to Thursday and Friday. So these early moves, I jumped
4:09
on stormy show at Visa and earlier today and I kind of was
4:11
mentioning the fact that hey, we want to respect these early
4:14
moves because numbers are moving because pro batters are hitting
4:17
these games early. But we also don't want to get
4:19
locked into something that might change between now and Thursday
4:22
or Friday because we're all excited.
4:24
It's almost like Super Bowl week where you know you get excited
4:27
the Super Bowl matchup is out, but you got a two week stretch
4:30
leading up to the game and you don't want to get caught with
4:32
maybe bet in a game too early, but you also want to respect the
4:34
early move. So it makes it a bit of a a
4:36
catch 22. But with that being said, there
4:38
are three games that caught my eye.
4:40
So let's talk about a few of them.
4:41
Let's go to the east region. This game is all actually these
4:45
three games are on Friday, so east region Friday, 12:15 PM
4:48
Eastern Time Baylor and Mississippi State.
4:51
So let's set the stage talk some early line movement and I'm
4:54
going to give you my play here for this one.
4:57
So going this matchup early game here on Friday.
5:00
Let me just pull up my my breakdown here for this matchup.
5:04
We have Baylor coming in with a record of 19 and 14.
5:08
They're the ninth seed. They just fell to Texas Tech.
5:11
However, 7674 in the Big 12 tournament quarterfinals did
5:15
cover though as a 6 1/2 point neutral sight dog.
5:18
You know, Mississippi State, on the other hand, 21 and 12 on the
5:20
year, the eighth seed they just lost to Mizzou, 85 to 73 in the
5:24
second round of the SEC tournament didn't cover as a 3
5:28
1/2 point neutral site dog. So what we've seen across the
5:30
market here, well, looks like some really sharp dog to fave
5:34
line movement. One of our favorite systems in
5:36
favor of Mississippi State. This came up with Baylor listed
5:39
as a very short one point neutral site favorite.
5:42
And the public doesn't really know, doesn't really know what
5:44
to do. They remember Baylor good
5:46
program. They won the title a few years
5:47
ago, but they don't have the best record in the world.
5:50
It's a short number. Do we take the point?
5:52
Do we lay the point? Even though the public is split
5:55
down the middle, this line has very consistently moved toward
5:59
Mississippi State. So we've gone from Mississippi
6:02
State getting a point to now -1 1/2.
6:05
So a dog to fave line move that really caught my eye for this
6:08
Friday. Early match up here.
6:10
And if you look at the bet splits, they look pretty good in
6:13
favor of Mississippi State's. On the one hand, 5050 line
6:16
shouldn't move at all. So we know that even though the
6:18
tickets are split, we can probably assume the bigger,
6:21
sharper, smarter big money wagers on Mississippi State.
6:24
And that is the case if you look right now at DraftKings, only
6:27
half the tickets but 61% of the money is on Mississippi State.
6:32
I also got a e-mail from my buddy John Ewing at Bet MGM.
6:35
He was showing similar split, 51% bet, 66% dollars on
6:40
Mississippi State, and then out at Circa I noticed 67% of spread
6:44
bets, over 90% of spread dollars on Mississippi State.
6:48
So basically we have the majority of the big national
6:52
books right down the middle, but Circa is heavy bets in dollars
6:55
and all the money is heavy on Mississippi State, which
6:58
coincides with that dog to fave line move.
7:00
Now I'm leaning toward a money line here again.
7:03
I want to wait this thing out because I'd hate to, you know,
7:05
money line Mississippi State -1 1/2 some books are -2 then give
7:08
it a couple days. It's back down to a pick em.
7:10
So this is going to be a play, I'll call it like a radar play.
7:12
You put it on your radar, you make you check it off as a game
7:15
you're monitoring. But if it's a money line play,
7:18
then you know, I'll I'll be willing to wait it out.
7:20
Maybe I'll miss a little bit of juice.
7:21
Maybe I'll save some juice, but I want to get more time for the
7:24
public to get down on this one. I'd love for them to load up on
7:26
Baylor and make Mississippi State more of a contrarian play.
7:30
But a DraftKings only 50% of money line tickets, 65% of money
7:34
line dollars. So good split there to win
7:37
straight up. Now Mississippi State, better
7:39
defensive efficiency, 47th in the country versus 58th for
7:43
Baylor. They take better care of the
7:44
ball turnover percentage, 39th versus one O 6th for Baylor.
7:49
And they forced more turnover turnovers, 74th in the country
7:52
versus 84th. And lastly, 1 little advantage
7:55
I'll give toward Mississippi State.
7:57
They come from the SEC, you know, Baylor, obviously, you
8:00
know, coming from the Big 12, no slouch, good conference, but the
8:03
SEC is a monster. They sent 14 teams to the
8:06
tournament this year, the most of any school.
8:09
So I'm going to give a little strength of schedule edge to
8:11
Mississippi State. They've been playing a lot of
8:13
really, really good teams. Maybe they'll be able to, you
8:16
know, take advantage of Baylor, who comes from the Big 12.
8:19
So it's early. I didn't officially play it yet,
8:22
but I got Mississippi State as a dog to fave move on my radar.
8:26
Next one for you on Friday, 2:00 matchup.
8:28
Let's look toward the this is the West region, 2:00 between
8:33
Colorado State and Memphis. Now set the stage.
8:36
Talk some line movement. Colorado State comes in 25 and
8:39
9. The 12 seed just beat Boise 6956
8:43
in the Mountain West tournament to win the their conference
8:46
tournament as a one point neutral site dog.
8:48
Meanwhile, Memphis 29 and five, the five seed just brushed aside
8:52
UAB 84 to 72 won the AAC tournament and they covered as a
8:57
3 1/2 point neutral site favorite.
8:58
So what are you seeing across the market here?
9:00
Well, this game open Colorado State as high as a three and a
9:03
half, three or three and a half point neutral site favorite.
9:07
And the interesting thing here is that Colorado State is your
9:10
12 seed, Memphis is your five seed.
9:13
So I made the joke with Stormy earlier like if Colorado wins
9:16
Colorado State, is that an upset because it's a 12 / 5?
9:19
Well, technically Colorado State is expected to win this game as
9:22
they are favored by a few points here.
9:24
What's interesting to me is that even though Colorado State is
9:28
the 12 over, the five odds makers, or I should say, wise
9:32
guys are still thinking there's value on Memphis in the points.
9:35
So Colorado State opened -3 1/2 -, 3.
9:38
Now they're down to 2 1/2. And I see some shops juiced up
9:41
like this may even fall down to two.
9:43
So we've seen pretty consistent movement on Memphis.
9:46
And if you look at Circa really good bet split, Memphis is only
9:49
getting 40% of spread bets, but 76% of spread dollars.
9:54
So really good low bets, higher dollar split.
9:57
I noticed that Ken Palm only has Colorado State winning by one
10:00
point. So if we're still getting a 2
10:02
1/2 with Memphis and it seems obvious, just play the, you
10:05
know, play, play the five seed with Memphis here.
10:07
But public is really high in Colorado State.
10:10
I get it. They've looked really, really
10:11
good, especially in their conference tournament.
10:13
They're they're really, you know, playing great at the right
10:15
time. But I'm feeling like this is
10:17
might maybe a buy low spot on Memphis in the points Ken Palms
10:21
got losing by one. We can get a 2 1/2.
10:23
Memphis does have some pretty clear edges here in terms of
10:26
better offensive rebound percentage.
10:28
Big 135% versus 26%, better defensive efficiency, 40th
10:33
versus 49th, they force more turnovers, 72nd versus 200 and
10:38
2nd. And the other angle here is, you
10:40
know, we always talk 12 versus 5 because you know there's going
10:43
to be a 12 that beats A5. But usually it's those teams
10:47
that you know kind of creep up on you.
10:49
You're not expecting fly under the radar.
10:51
It's a massive upset. You know, this is kind of a
10:54
trendy 12 / 5, which makes me kind of more excited to go the
10:57
other way and actually play the five getting the points because
11:00
it's very rare that you get a bit of a contrarian, you know,
11:04
dog here with a Ken Palm edge. And again, Memphis is no slouch.
11:07
So it's early. It seems like a great 12 five
11:11
upset. Colorado State is expected to
11:12
win, but the market in the move in the Ken Palm number is kind
11:16
of going toward Memphis here. So I'm looking early at Memphis
11:19
plus 2 1/2 and then for the final early game that I'm
11:23
monitoring here, that caught my eye.
11:25
Let's go to Grand Canyon and Maryland.
11:28
That's right, we're looking at the West region 13 seed, Grand
11:31
Canyon versus Maryland, the four seed.
11:33
Now let's set the stage talk some line movement and we've
11:36
already seen a line here and it's going toward the Canyon,
11:39
the Lopes. So going in it, we have Grand
11:41
Canyon 26 and seven on the year. The 13 seed, they just took down
11:45
Utah Valley 89 to 82 to win the WAC tournament.
11:49
They covered that game as a four and a half point neutral site
11:51
favorite. Meanwhile, the Terps 25 and 8,
11:53
the four seed, they just fell, however, to Wisconsin, 81 to 80
11:57
in the Big 10 tourney semifinals.
11:59
They lost that game as a four and a half point neutral site
12:01
favorite. They're leading and you had
12:04
Donaldson from Michigan go coast to coast to win it there at the
12:07
buzzer. What what have you seen across
12:09
the market here? Well, this game open with
12:11
Maryland listed as an 11 1/2 point favorite, neutral site
12:14
favorite. And the early move was not
12:17
toward Maryland to blow out the Lopes.
12:20
It's actually falling. The sign is falling toward Grand
12:22
Canyon. Grand Canyon went from plus 11
12:24
1/2 down to plus 10 1/2. And what's also notable to me is
12:28
that if you look at the juice, it's juiced up not to go back up
12:32
to 11, but to maybe even fall down to 10, because a lot of
12:35
these Grand Canyon plus 10 and a halfs are -115 telling us, hey,
12:40
it may fall even further. Now, the bet splits look pretty
12:43
good on Grand Canyon at DraftKings, 63% of spread bets,
12:47
90% of spread dollars on the Lopes.
12:51
And one big advantage or a couple advantages here.
12:54
Obviously, Maryland's a good team.
12:55
You know, a lot of their stats are going to be better than
12:57
Grand Canyon. But Grand Canyon has the better
12:59
offensive rebound percentage, 33% versus 31%.
13:04
They force more turnovers, 30th in the country versus 39th for
13:08
the Terps. They limit their opponent to a
13:10
better effective field goal percentage, 25th in the country
13:14
versus 53rd. And I did notice as well, our
13:17
friends at Rhythm are pretty bullish here on Grand Canyon.
13:20
Grand Canyon is a + 7.7 at Rhythm.
13:25
So if we have a early move toward Grand Canyon plus 11 1/2
13:28
down to 10 1/2 juiced up like it may fall even further.
13:31
We got Rhythm telling us this should be about A7 or an 8 point
13:34
game. And then here's one other
13:36
benefit that I think is notable in favor of Grand Canyon.
13:40
If you remember last year, Grand Canyon made some noise in the
13:43
NCAA tournament. They were a 12 seed and they
13:45
beat 5 seeded St. Mary's in the first round, 75 to
13:49
66. And they return four of their
13:52
five starters from that game. They have a ton of of seniors.
13:57
And you'll get Maryland. On the flip side, they missed
13:58
the tournament last year. So does Maryland win this game?
14:01
I mean, probably they're favored by 10 1/2, but can Grand Canyon
14:05
keep it 10 or less? That's a bet that I'm willing to
14:08
make here, guys. It's a pretty good split, good
14:10
line move, good rhythm system match.
14:12
I know a few sharp people who I respect that like Grand Canyon
14:15
as well. So I'm going with the Lopes now.
14:18
I'm monitoring Mississippi State, I'm monitoring Memphis.
14:21
I officially put in Grand Canyon plus 10 1/2 because I felt like
14:25
the hook could be critical because it might be getting down
14:27
to 10. But that isn't my one of my
14:29
official first bets. Were the first official bet the
14:31
Lopes Grand Canyon University plus 10 1/2 so 3 bets right
14:38
there. I'm sure we'll talk more.
14:40
We'll give the the lines time to move and obviously we'll be
14:43
doing pods the rest of the week. But those are just three early
14:45
plays to keep your eye on to consider tail fade.
14:48
Do what you want, but those are some early games that caught my
14:51
eye. Now let's look for some games
14:54
for tonight. See if we can turn a profit,
14:56
which is always the goal of three pack and we got to go to
14:59
NHL in the NBA because there ain't anywhere else to go here
15:02
tonight. So first one that caught my eye.
15:06
Let's look toward a match up here tonight in the NBA between
15:10
the Miami Heat and the New York Knicks. 7:30 PM Eastern Time
15:14
tonight, Nice little prime time game on ESPN.
15:17
There's injuries, No Jaylen Brunson for this one.
15:20
We do have Miami coming in struggling this year, 29 and 38
15:24
and the New York Knicks 42 and 24.
15:26
Now, couple things to talk about for this one.
15:28
First, we have seen a bit of a line move here toward the Miami
15:31
Heat. You open Knicks as high as
15:33
minus. I think they're -8 8 1/2, even
15:36
saw one book, a lot of seven and a half down to seven.
15:39
So line has moved a bit toward the New York Knicks.
15:41
But what jumped out to me is this total.
15:44
This total has absolutely plummeted.
15:47
We open this game with a total as high as 2/13 and 1/2.
15:50
This total is all the way down to two O 9, two O 8 1/2.
15:54
So we've seen a big, big dip here.
15:56
A lot of money here came in on the under and causes total to
16:00
drop. So you might be saying Josh,
16:01
play the under right? Well, this this maybe the move
16:04
is right and this game flies under.
16:06
Maybe it's a you know, a 99 to 91 game because the heat have
16:10
played some of those matchups. But I'm thinking this has fallen
16:13
so much it creates an opportunity to buy low buy low
16:16
on a low watermark number and play the over.
16:19
So I'm going over two O 8 1/2 here guys.
16:21
There are a lot of 2O nines I found over two O 8 1/2 at a
16:24
couple books, including ESPN bet get the best price because
16:27
obviously if it lands two O 9, you want to cash this bet.
16:29
But remember, sharps hit under 213 and half two 12210.
16:34
You know, even two O 9 and half. If this lands two O 9 or 210, a
16:38
lot of those early wise guy betters win because early bird
16:41
gets the worm. You go late under 2O9, it lands,
16:45
you know 210 you lose. So it's not that this is it's
16:49
like definitely a clear under play based on the market
16:52
movement, but has it fallen so much to where it creates a buy
16:54
low spot to go over? That's really my angle with this
16:57
one. Now I did notice we have some
16:59
really good over refs in this game, including the greatest
17:02
over ref of all time, Scott Foster.
17:04
The extender Foster to the over is about 56% and his career.
17:10
You also have Trey Maddox and Evan Scott, two other big over
17:13
referees. So if we get a lot of fouls and
17:16
we get some free throws and make our free throws.
17:19
But a couple other angles like with the over, aside from this
17:22
just being a Bilo Over play for me, this is the third match up
17:25
between these teams this year. 1st 2 had a combined total of
17:29
223 and 228. Obviously Jimmy Butler's gone,
17:33
Jalen Brunson's hurt, so you got a kind of a factor for that.
17:36
But when I popped open my rhythm app, I noticed this rhythm has a
17:39
predicted final total in this game of 211.8.
17:43
So even with the injuries, even with the line move rhythm saying
17:46
this should be about a two 11212 game and we can buy low and go
17:50
over two O 8 1/2 again, you got to find that number at ESPN bet.
17:55
I'm going to take a shot here on this over see if we can get some
17:57
points. We basically got to get 50
17:59
points 1/4 with a with a few with maybe a bucket more each
18:02
and hopefully we can play this one and get a win.
18:04
But I'm going to buy low. I just feel like it's falling so
18:07
much. Maybe we can swoop in, hit the
18:09
low watermark and and playing over.
18:11
So I'm on heat next over two O 8 1/2 next one for you.
18:16
Let's look at a late night match up here between the spurs.
18:19
My guy Stefan Castle plus 175 rookie of the year.
18:22
I think he's like -1000 now let's go.
18:25
But the Spurs visiting the Lakers.
18:27
So this is a game that was rescheduled from January 11th.
18:30
I think that was when the wildfires were taking place.
18:33
But the Spurs come in 28 and 38. So, you know, losing team out of
18:37
the playoff picture. LA 41 and 25 S in terms of the
18:42
side. And we have seen the sign move a
18:44
little bit or stay the same, remove a little bit toward the
18:46
Lakers -9 up to -9 1/2. This is the second leg of a
18:49
back-to-back, and the Spurs are rested.
18:52
But I'm going to focus once again on the total now.
18:55
Unlike that Heat Knicks game by low overplay, this looks like
18:58
just a clear over opportunity. I'm looking for points here,
19:01
guys. Spurs and Lakers.
19:03
This total open at 2:28. It's bet up to 229 1/2 or 230.
19:08
Once again, ESPN bet 229 1/2. So that's your best number.
19:12
But these splits look really good for the over at DraftKings.
19:16
67% of bets, 89% of money is on this over at Circa incredible
19:22
33% of bets, 92% of money on this over so great low bets
19:26
higher dollar split at both DraftKings and circa.
19:29
I got some system matches on this game as well.
19:32
When you look at a non division over in which the total stays
19:35
the same arises. It is 55% this year.
19:38
It's 2:45 and two O 2 with a 5% ROI.
19:42
So that would match with this Spurs Lakers over now offensive
19:46
efficiency. Spurs are 14th, Lakers are 10th.
19:49
So you're both top half in terms of scoring the ball.
19:52
And if you look at defensively, Spurs are pretty bad.
19:55
You have no one Benyama, obviously, which hurts your
19:57
offense but also really hurts your defense because he's kind
20:00
of the big man that, you know, puts the clamps on the opposing
20:02
team, especially in the paint. The Spurs ranked 26th.
20:06
And defensive efficiency. Spurs also are one of your
20:10
better over teams this season. They're 37 and 28 to the over
20:13
57%. They're 18 and 13 to the over on
20:16
the road. Let me give you just the last
20:18
five box scores for the Spurs. 1/19 to 1/15, 1:45 to 1:34 1/26
20:25
to 1/16, 1:33 to 1/29, 1:41 to 1:24.
20:31
So this is a team that scores a lot, gives up a lot.
20:34
It's a pretty clear bet split over play.
20:36
I got a system match. I'm going Spurs, Lakers and
20:39
again, shop around. ESPN bet over 229 1/2.
20:43
Last bit of the night. Let's do that hockey.
20:46
Haven't done that hockey in quite a while, so I'm excited to
20:49
to sweat this one with you guys tonight.
20:51
Let's look toward a match up tonight, 8:00 PM Eastern Time on
20:55
ESPN. Plus the Kings and the Wild.
20:58
Now the Kings come into this 136 and 20 on the year with 9 OTOT
21:03
losses or shootout losses. Minnesota Wild 3725 and five.
21:09
But these teams have trended in opposite directions.
21:11
We'll get to that here in a second.
21:12
But first thing to look at with hockey, again, throw away the
21:15
percentages because you don't see a ton of contrarian
21:18
opportunities. Hockey isn't heavily bad enough
21:20
to kind of to kind of fade. There's not enough public to go
21:23
against. But I look at line movement and
21:25
a pretty clear line move in favor of the Kings.
21:28
I like the Kings tonight, guys, they open as low as -125 they're
21:31
all the way up to -150 so big steam coming in here on the
21:35
Kings. I'll mention the splits.
21:37
It's not the only reason, but they're getting about 70% of
21:39
tickets, 80% of dollars at DraftKings.
21:43
I have a lot of system matches here on the Kings.
21:45
I probably should have been playing these more often during
21:47
the year. Rd. favorites with Steam versus
21:49
an opponent who missed the playoffs the previous year.
21:53
That system is 69 and 4262% with a 3% ROI this year.
21:59
Favorite off a win versus an opponent missed the postseason
22:02
61% this season. Rd. favorite off a win, 55%.
22:06
So not quite as good sweet spot. Rd. favorite -150 to -175 with
22:11
Steam 60% this season. So quite a few systems lighting
22:15
up on the LA Kings now mentioned kind of recent performance.
22:20
Kings 5 and O their last five playing great Minnesota one and
22:23
four their last five they've struggled.
22:25
The Kings have the better offense slightly 2.8 goals a
22:28
game versus 2.7. They were the better defense.
22:31
They allow 2.6 a game versus 2.9.
22:34
They have the better penalty kill 82% versus 78%.
22:39
And lastly, they hopefully have the edge and goal because Darcy
22:43
Kemper has been really good for them. 2.17 goals against this
22:46
year, 9/19 save percentage. His opponent Gustafson hasn't
22:51
been bad. 2.6 O goals against, 9/14 save percentage.
22:55
So they got Drew Dowdy back. He was injured for most of the
22:57
year. But this is a team that's
22:58
humming right now. There's a clear market move in
23:00
their favor. I'm going to take a shot on the
23:02
Kings guys. Shop around.
23:03
I found -150 at BET MGM. So heat Nicks over two O 8 1/2,
23:09
Spurs Lakers over 229 1/2 and the LA kings -150 can we go 2
23:15
and 1 eek out a winning day? That is the goal.
23:18
So that about does it for episode 238 of y'all systems go
23:22
sports betting podcast powered by rhythm.
23:24
This is the part of the pod, of course, where we wrap things up
23:27
and I start first by saying thank you.
23:29
Thank you for taking the time out of your day, out of your
23:31
busy lives to pull up a chair to the virtual bar and sweat some
23:34
sharp, data-driven breakdowns of me.
23:37
If you do enjoy the pod, which I hope you do, find the insights
23:40
valuable. Win, lose, or draw.
23:41
Hopefully you feel like you're getting good information,
23:43
honest, accurate, reliable data. If that's the case and you want
23:47
to do me a solid, please give this podcast a five star review
23:50
on Spotify or iTunes. It would go a long way to
23:53
helping us to continue to grow the podcast.
23:57
If you also want to click the follow button or recommend the
23:59
pod to a friend, that would also be great.
24:02
Secondly, if you enjoy this style of data-driven sports
24:06
betting breakdown, if that's the case and you want to learn more
24:09
about data-driven betting or just let me know that you
24:11
appreciate the pod and the hard work that I put in hosting it,
24:15
then guess what? There are two great books that
24:17
you should buy. You can go to Amazon.com to get
24:20
them both. Just type in the everything
24:22
guide to sports betting, which is my first book that I ever
24:25
wrote. Very proud of it.
24:26
It's great for brand new betters or betters who are, you know,
24:30
quasi new or intermediate betters, really teaching you the
24:33
rules of the road with how to how contrarian betting works.
24:35
And then also I'd love for you guys to pre-order my new book
24:38
and my new book is called the NFL sharp betting Playbook.
24:41
So comes out August 12th. Actually found out today that
24:44
there's going to be an audio book.
24:46
Very excited about that. I had some people ask, can you
24:48
can you do an audio book? And I didn't realize how popular
24:50
they are. I guess a lot of people like
24:52
them. So there will be an audio book
24:53
version as well. But if you want to pre-order the
24:56
NFL Sharp Betting playbook, it would really, really make my
24:58
day. And for those of you who already
25:00
have pre-order a copy or already bought the everything guide to
25:03
Sports betting, seriously, I so much very much appreciate you.
25:06
Thank you. Bring one or both to the book.
25:09
I'll sign them for you. I'll buy you a beer or ginger
25:12
ale or two. Next, if you haven't done it
25:14
yet, go download Juice Reel and Rhythm, my two favorite sports
25:17
betting apps. They're great for with Rhythm
25:20
first, of course, they're game backed AI models and predictions
25:24
for game bets and player props. They're going to help us quite a
25:26
bit in March Madness. If you didn't do it yet or you
25:29
already did, request your AI generated bracket, that should
25:32
be now available to you and the rhythm homepage in the app.
25:35
So make sure you get your bracket.
25:37
And then also Juice Reel, great for following the all systems go
25:40
best bet picks, which are available on Juice Reel for
25:43
$4.99 a week. You can also get the Robo
25:46
Jackson best bet picks, the sharp mush indicators, the
25:49
arbitrage plays shop for the best line futures all available
25:53
and syncing up your sports books to get a report card of your
25:56
action, which also gives you game details.
25:58
People who have synced up their books, actual dollar amounts on
26:02
bets bets in dollars for both or for spread money line in total
26:05
for all the major matchups. So always like kind of knowing
26:08
what people in the app are betting, especially the sharp
26:11
you know winning betters, but that's juice reel and rhythm go
26:14
download both give them a five star review.
26:16
You'll be off and running making sharp bets.
26:19
Lastly, if you need a live odds page, you know you need one.
26:22
You got to know what lines open at, how they move, got to
26:25
anticipate line movement. You got to see where the wind's
26:27
blowing with the juice. You got to pick off good numbers
26:29
and shop for the best line. Well, if you want to give Odds
26:32
Logic a shot, it's the best new live odds page around.
26:35
All you got to do is go to oddslogic.com/josh 123.
26:40
Make sure you add the slash Josh 123 at the end of Odds logic.com
26:44
and you can give it a shot with a 7 day free trial and then your
26:47
first full month it will be 50% off and I hope you're going to.
26:51
I hope you'll like it. I think you will.
26:52
It's just a great odds page. I've introduced quite a few
26:54
people to it over the last couple weeks and they've really
26:56
enjoyed it. It's just a crisp, clean
26:59
interface and I'll help you. It will help you when I'm pretty
27:02
confident that just getting the best numbers and being able to
27:05
monitor the market in real time, it's huge.
27:06
But if you have any questions about odds logic or anything
27:09
else, you can always DM me at Josh under score insights on
27:13
Twitter. So that about does it for
27:15
episode 238 of the ASG Pod on a big Monday, the calm before the
27:19
storm of March Madness. Have you filled out your bracket
27:22
yet? I'm working on mine.
27:24
I'll do. I'll do a few entries.
27:26
But with that being said, guys, wrapping it up here, leave with
27:29
a couple things as always, whether I see you at the Borgata
27:32
in Atlantic City, Twin River in Rhode Island, the Brooklyn, New
27:34
Hampshire, Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun down in Connecticut at the
27:38
Encore in Boston or Plain Ridge Park Casino or MGM Springfield
27:41
or the Nash up in Nashville, New Hampshire in my neck of the
27:44
woods. Or of course, out in the desert
27:45
where the true grinders get down or Billy Walters sends his
27:48
number runners with lowest juice possible, sound the South Point
27:51
or sweat and sharp contrarian plays jumping in the stadium
27:54
swimming pool. When you cash a big ticket at
27:56
Circa wherever, maybe you're going to walk up to me.
27:58
Hopefully you're going to show me a winning contrarian bracket.
28:02
We need anyone other than Duke or Auburn to win it all.
28:04
Florida, we might, might still win.
28:07
Man. If you pick Houston, Houston
28:08
wins. What about St.
28:09
John's? The Johnny boys are looking
28:11
good, but hopefully we'll have a great March Madness and first
28:14
one will be on me, next one on will be on you.
28:17
We'll post about the book. Sweat some sharp contrarian
28:19
plays together. So as always, win, lose or draw
28:23
up big struggling, treading water.
28:26
The blueprint, the model never changes.
28:27
We got to stick to the the process of betting games with
28:30
our head and not our heart. Against the public, with the
28:32
house, with the pros. Flat bet, avoid parlays, get
28:35
that CLV. If we can do that, I'm confident
28:38
that we can, then we're going to be successful sports bettors.
28:41
So have a great Monday night, everybody.
28:43
Be right back at it tomorrow for a big Tuesday.
28:46
That'll be episode 239 of the All Systems Go Sports Betting
28:50
podcast powered by Rhythm. Good luck, everybody.
28:53
Let's see if we can get some winners here in the NBA and the
28:55
NHL.