Latest / The Paul Barron Crypto Show / Fed Chaos Countdown📉Crypto Market Update

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Fed Chaos Countdown📉Crypto Market Update · The Paul Barron Crypto Show

• 0:01
  Speaker 1: Fed chaos is brewing. Jackson Hole is where all eyes are. Today,
• 0:05
  Speaker 1: we're going to break it down for you. My name
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: is Paul Barrew, Welcome back into the show. I want
• 0:08
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• 0:10
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• 0:12
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• 0:31
  Speaker 2: Guys.
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: Because this is going to get to be a heated market,
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  Speaker 1: it's very possible we may see some pullbacks that could
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  Speaker 1: open up some opportunities for buying. Breaking right now is
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  Speaker 1: the majority of the FED members see inflation risk outweighing
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  Speaker 1: the employment risk. This is the single most important data
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  Speaker 1: point that came out of the Fed minutes today. And
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  Speaker 1: this is a big deal guys, because if we continue
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  Speaker 1: to see most the FED members holding the line, this
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  Speaker 1: could continue to push the market down. Right now, the
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  Speaker 1: FED is when you look at the divided FED, everybody
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  Speaker 1: is worried about tariffs and inflation, and the labor market
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  Speaker 1: is really the big question. I think that's the one
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  Speaker 1: that I'm more concerned about. I know that they're still
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  Speaker 1: looking at inflation, but I think when you deal with
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  Speaker 1: labor market pushes, it starts to affect retail. That starts
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  Speaker 1: to affect inflation because you're going to see companies losing revenue.
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  Speaker 1: And that is the big issue that we're dealing with
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  Speaker 1: right now. Here's a clip though, that we'll get into
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  Speaker 1: a little bit more detail about one of the candidates
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  Speaker 1: that might be heading into the FED and what he thinks.
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  Speaker 3: Take a look fedfunds minutes. The FED minutes from the
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  Speaker 3: most recent meeting, which was in July, did come out
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  Speaker 3: as you just referenced, here's what and remember this is
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  Speaker 3: the meeting that had two dissenters, first time in decades
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  Speaker 3: where we have seen that, where two of the voting
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  Speaker 3: members said we think we should be cutting rates. Almost
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  Speaker 3: all participants at that July twenty ninth to thirtieth meeting
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  Speaker 3: viewed it is appropriate to maintain the benchmark interest at
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  Speaker 3: four and a quarter to four and a half percent.
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  Speaker 3: They saw near term inflation rising, They said, that's likely.
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  Speaker 2: Do you so?
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  Speaker 4: I think it depends on your timeframe. So if you
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  Speaker 4: said over the next couple.
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  Speaker 3: Bones, what do you mean your time frame?
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  Speaker 2: I mean, so if you.
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  Speaker 4: Said, is inflation going to rise over the next couple
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  Speaker 4: of months, are you going to see a bit of
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  Speaker 4: transmission from tariffs? You're seeing They saw that in peril,
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  Speaker 4: You see it in electronics, you see it in household furnaces,
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  Speaker 4: you see in a little bit of elevation.
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  Speaker 3: Ast a little word today, one hundred million dollar tariff
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  Speaker 3: hit right.
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  Speaker 4: So you take that and you say, okay, so what
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  Speaker 4: are we running inflation rise? We're still under three percent.
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  Speaker 4: Think about where we were a couple of years ago,
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  Speaker 4: and you think about the impact post COVID Today you're
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  Speaker 4: running at levels that I would argue not are not
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  Speaker 4: that scary? Now where are we going over the intermediate term? Productivity? Technology,
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  Speaker 4: innovation is going to change the paradigm in such a
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  Speaker 4: significant way. The focus on the next couple of months
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  Speaker 4: that do we have a price level adjustment from tariff?
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  Speaker 4: And by the way, alongside of that, you talk about
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  Speaker 4: se later or some other companies, you have some growthy
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  Speaker 4: life lasticity to that, suggesting that gosh, you may have
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  Speaker 4: a little bit of price pressure. It will create some
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  Speaker 4: dulling of growth.
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  Speaker 3: But it'll be mitigated by technological advances. I'm reading AI
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  Speaker 3: here totally.
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  Speaker 1: So a couple of points that you could look to
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  Speaker 1: that are somewhat positive.
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  Speaker 2: Yes, that is very possible. It could happen.
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  Speaker 1: We could see productivity advancing in and reducing some of
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  Speaker 1: these costs.
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  Speaker 2: But at the end of the.
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  Speaker 1: Day, right now we're dealing with real world aspects of
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  Speaker 1: where the market is right now losing jobs, and now
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  Speaker 1: we're starting to see some of our biggest companies here
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  Speaker 1: in the United States not report good earnings. And of
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  Speaker 1: course this is Walmart hitting at four percent negative after
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  Speaker 1: a weaker than expected earning result. And the other thing
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  Speaker 1: that plays into this is really the next two quarters.
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  Speaker 1: That's the concern I have right now, falling jobs and
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  Speaker 1: falling revenue for businesses. This is not a good match
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  Speaker 1: because we will continue to see possibly a lagging inflation
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  Speaker 1: meaning inflation still holding on. But the worst thing that
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  Speaker 1: could happen is that job could play into this and
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  Speaker 1: create that double edged sword, which is stackflation. That's the
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  Speaker 1: thing you got to watch out for all right, So
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  Speaker 1: let's lead into this clip here. This is a Bloomberg
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  Speaker 1: analyst looking at spending in the back half.
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  Speaker 2: Again, this related into Walmart. Take a look, just to
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  Speaker 2: jump in.
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  Speaker 5: They also noted that prices only rose one percent in
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  Speaker 5: the second quarter. Does that change?
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  Speaker 6: That's right? So he it was fifty basis points in
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  Speaker 6: Q one. Q two is one point one percent. We
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  Speaker 6: should see this gradual phase in and Walmart CEO Doug
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  Speaker 6: McMillan was just talking about each and every week the
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  Speaker 6: price is going up as the tariff start to roll through.
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  Speaker 6: So that's very much expected and i'd say so far,
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  Speaker 6: we haven't seen any evidence of the consumer pushing back
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  Speaker 6: to a great degree. They've sort of eaten it and
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  Speaker 6: it was ordered pretty well. That's the question on to
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  Speaker 6: the back half. As prices get higher and higher, what
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  Speaker 6: happens to spending in general.
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  Speaker 5: It was weird though, because the CEO's comments were this
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  Speaker 5: is a resilient consumer, but also higher end consumers are
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  Speaker 5: now shopping at Walmart. Those there's two things would seem
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  Speaker 5: to be intention.
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  Speaker 1: Yeah, and I think that is something to take a
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  Speaker 1: look at because there are markets that are starting to
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  Speaker 1: shift from a demographic standpoint, what she just mentioned there
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  Speaker 1: is higher end consumers now starting a smart shop at Walmart.
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  Speaker 1: Because guess who has started to fall, and that is
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  Speaker 1: Target also taking a hit. And if you look at
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  Speaker 1: where Target has been, this is a bad chart for
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  Speaker 1: Target in general. I don't know that their new CEO,
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  Speaker 1: granted they have a new CEO, because of that decline
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  Speaker 1: that goes all the way back into really twenty twenty two.
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  Speaker 1: And I think the problem that Target has been well
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  Speaker 1: we'll get into the detail, but they made some bad
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  Speaker 1: moves politically. It started to sift them or shift them
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  Speaker 1: down to market. I think that maybe they just never
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  Speaker 1: come back from and there's brands out there that are
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  Speaker 1: just in that place right now, and I think Target
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: might be one of them. Well, one of the things
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: you should be doing is maybe going out there and
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: taking a loan on your bitcoin. So when bitcoin starts
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: to go down, maybe that is the time you can
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  Speaker 1: start to unlock some of your wealth.
• 6:00
  Speaker 2: And the way you do that is.
• 6:02
  Speaker 1: Take a loan on it and lock it up only
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: do a certain amount. Maybe most people look at loan
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: evaluation around fifty percent. That's a great way for you
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  Speaker 1: to releverage into the market and start to look at
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: things like eth acquisition, other projects that are out there
• 6:17
  Speaker 1: starting to move, so be on the lookout. That's how
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: wealthy people never take profits, guys, is they loan against
• 6:24
  Speaker 1: their assets. One of the ways you can do it,
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: of course, is salt lending dot Com leave a we'll
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: leave a link down below. Of course, you guys can
• 6:30
  Speaker 1: get started over there. They have salt shield, all those
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: kind of cool things that are lining up for the
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: best out there in terms of bitcoin lending now spending wise, though,
• 6:38
  Speaker 1: it really gets in kind of this next level because
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  Speaker 1: what we're dealing with still is whether or not we're
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  Speaker 1: going to get a FED rate cut, And now we've
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  Speaker 1: got another FED member. Hammock says she does not think
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  Speaker 1: that there is a case for a September ratecut. So
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  Speaker 1: again more data saying that there are more FED governors
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  Speaker 1: saying no rate cuts in September. This is a big
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  Speaker 1: deal because if you look at polymarket right now now,
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  Speaker 1: the percentage of no change has now spiked up to
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  Speaker 1: where are we thirty six percent likelihood to go to forty.
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  Speaker 1: That means it's a sixty to forty potential right now
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  Speaker 1: on a quarter basis points.
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  Speaker 2: I'll zoom in on that to give you as a
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  Speaker 2: really good look at this.
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  Speaker 1: But that's a big, big issue as we start to
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  Speaker 1: move forward, not only just for markets, but for our
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  Speaker 1: economy in general, because the further we drive real estate
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  Speaker 1: market and businesses into despair, that is a bad thing
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  Speaker 1: for jobs and it's also a bad thing for the
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  Speaker 1: US economy, which is what's going to be playing.
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  Speaker 2: Out right now. Now.
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  Speaker 1: The issue right now, of course, is the Trump administration
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  Speaker 1: continuing to put pressure on the FED. Now they're going
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  Speaker 1: after the individual governors. This one, of course, was one
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  Speaker 1: of the governors that had an issue with Morgans fraud
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  Speaker 1: and basically Sam they were living in a house that
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  Speaker 1: wasn't the case. The point being is that I don't
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  Speaker 1: think they should be doing this. I think we should
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  Speaker 1: be presenting economic data going into law fare. I get
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  Speaker 1: that that's happened before, but I don't think this is
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  Speaker 1: something that they should be doing. I think you just
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  Speaker 1: focus in on the simple things. Companies losing money. Now,
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  Speaker 1: some of the best companies in the US not performing
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  Speaker 1: well and people losing their jobs. That may not be
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  Speaker 1: a good sign for President Trump. All right, So I
• 8:17
  Speaker 1: want to go to a clip real quick, because many
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  Speaker 1: people are looking. Is this may be a chance for
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: you to sell some bitcoin, grab an ether opportunity?
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  Speaker 2: Is that a play Listen to this clip.
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: This is how Anthony Popleono responded, Take a look.
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  Speaker 7: The poles that are selling you think are selling for
• 8:31
  Speaker 7: what reason? And the reason I'm asking that is I've
• 8:33
  Speaker 7: heard from a bunch of people who have actually sold
• 8:35
  Speaker 7: some bitcoin moved it into ethereum. That actually has been
• 8:39
  Speaker 7: one trade for some folks. There's another trade among folks
• 8:43
  Speaker 7: who are interested in blockchain, but not necessarily bitcoin per se,
• 8:47
  Speaker 7: who've actually bought into Circle, for example, public traded company
• 8:50
  Speaker 7: that sells stable coin. You know that it's a stable
• 8:52
  Speaker 7: coin business. Do you see people moving from one place
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  Speaker 7: to the other, Well, some people.
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  Speaker 5: Are definitely doing it. I don't know if I would
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  Speaker 5: suggest people do that. You know, the whole blockchain, not
• 9:02
  Speaker 5: bitcoin is kind of like a twenty sixteen twenty seventeen viewpoint.
• 9:06
  Speaker 5: I think that that's been pretty much disproven that bitcoin
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  Speaker 5: is the king.
• 9:09
  Speaker 2: It's been the king, it's going to remain the king.
• 9:11
  Speaker 5: But on top of that, I do think that there's
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  Speaker 5: a lot more opportunities for people to play this, and
• 9:14
  Speaker 5: what you were getting is you're getting capital markets where
• 9:17
  Speaker 5: people are optimizing for different things. Some people want yield,
• 9:19
  Speaker 5: some people want infrastructure, some people want the actual underlying asset,
• 9:22
  Speaker 5: bitcoin itself. And so I think that you're going to
• 9:25
  Speaker 5: get fracturing of capital, which again leads to that muted volatility.
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  Speaker 1: Okay, well I agree with Anthony there, and that is, yeah,
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  Speaker 1: fracturing of capital. We could see the kind of flipping
• 9:37
  Speaker 1: of how this trade may play out. Other things that
• 9:40
  Speaker 1: are contributing to that, of course, has been the dats,
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: you know, the digital asset treasury companies out there, and
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: if you look at this, this charge starts to show
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  Speaker 1: some very interesting things, and that is we're starting to
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  Speaker 1: see the move where these eth dats are now outperforming
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  Speaker 1: the bitcoin digital asset treasuries, including micro Strategy.
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  Speaker 2: When you look at all of them compiled.
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  Speaker 1: That's a big transition in the market. Because we are
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: very early stage. Microstriptag has been in this forever. We
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: are now in a very early stage. And if you
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: just look at some of the companies that are in
• 10:12
  Speaker 1: here right now, I'm looking at the strategic reserve right now.
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  Speaker 1: Let me show you this, right here, I'll expand this
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  Speaker 1: growth historical data. Look at the amount of growth we're
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: seeing and these bubbles. Those are the size of the
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: deals that we're starting to see move within these. All
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: of this very positive for Ethereum, and it may be
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: in a position where we could see a lot more
• 10:33
  Speaker 1: companies starting to come in Right now, I think it's
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: mostly crypto friendly or people that have been in the space.
• 10:38
  Speaker 2: I think we're going to see.
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: A lot more possibly traditionally traded companies starting to hold
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: a lot more US treasury in the term or face
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: of eth One thing to consider is when you look
• 10:50
  Speaker 1: at this rush into these treasury companies now, it could
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: be one of two things. One, it could be just
• 10:57
  Speaker 1: a new asset class that's going to, you know, continue on.
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: We saw it could go the way of SPACs, but
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: it also could go the way of the dot com
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  Speaker 1: boom and bust, where we saw a massive amount of
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  Speaker 1: companies go in and not a massive amount of companies
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  Speaker 1: come out. However, the companies that did come out of
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: those eras were legendary, so it's very possible we could
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: have a legendary company coming out of this era right
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: now that we're dealing with around eth treasury, So keep
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: a close eye on this one. It will push things
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: into a very interesting trade. And if you're looking at
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  Speaker 1: the eighth bitcoin chart right now, it's looking pretty good.
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  Speaker 1: This is where it broke out of a four year
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: down trend, so it's flipped its resistance and this is
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: kind of what they're talking about. If you look at
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: the actual chart. I'll jump over to the eighth bitcoin
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  Speaker 1: chart right there. This is the point we're looking at,
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: which is where we started to see a lot more
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: movement in the all coin market.
• 11:48
  Speaker 2: But primarily what we're talking about.
• 11:50
  Speaker 1: Is the Eth market, and that in general is a
• 11:54
  Speaker 1: big deal right now when you consider where the potential
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: trade is as Eth starts to trade much more positively
• 12:01
  Speaker 1: against bitcoin. Other thing I want to hit on right
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: here is what JP Morgan is saying, and that is
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: that ethereum is now poised for a meteoric growth.
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  Speaker 2: And should you buy Eth now? Now? The question is
• 12:13
  Speaker 2: is this is trad fi?
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: Yes, I know, Paul, don't pay attention to what trafy guys.
• 12:17
  Speaker 2: They're late. I don't think so.
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: I think we're dealing with a shift in how tradfi
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: is realizing that the next evolution they are now part
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: of it, along with guests who us. And that's a
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: good thing I think in general, in the sense of
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: that more people will be opened up to crypto. And
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: what I mean by that is just understanding what decentralization is,
• 12:39
  Speaker 1: understanding what tokenization is, especially for world assets and things
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: of that nature. All of this very good news for
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: crypto in general. All right, if you guys are not
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: part of the Driving Circle, make sure and get in
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: on that. It's our own private group that we send
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: out updates to you guys on some of our research,
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: additional opinions of mine. I do all sorts of newsletter
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: updates over there on what I'm seeing market. You guys
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: can join down below for absolutely free hit me out
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: there on x at Paul Baron. We'll catch you next
• 13:06
  Speaker 1: time right here on the Paul Baron Show.
• 13:08
  Speaker 5: Thank you,