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The Muster- Phil Duncan: Weather Watch · The Muster on Hokonui

• 0:08
  Speaker 1: Welcome back to the muster.
• 0:10
  Speaker 2: It is time to catch up with Phil Duncan of Weatherwatch.
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: G'day, Phil.
• 0:35
  Speaker 3: G'day, g'day.
• 0:37
  Speaker 2: Are we seeing a breaking of the cycle for the
• 0:39
  Speaker 2: weather down here in the south?
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: I'll be honest, it's felt a little bit warmer recently.
• 0:45
  Speaker 3: I think we are starting to see some changes, like
• 0:48
  Speaker 3: not only because our days are getting longer, so we've
• 0:50
  Speaker 3: got more, you know, sunlight to warm up the day,
• 0:53
  Speaker 3: but we're also just seeing a slight shift in the
• 0:55
  Speaker 3: weather pattern. Not a major one at all, but just
• 0:58
  Speaker 3: enough to drag in some warmer winds out of Australia.
• 1:02
  Speaker 3: And I think We'll get a better chance of that
• 1:04
  Speaker 3: next week. Not this week, but next week, we definitely
• 1:08
  Speaker 3: get more of a westerly flow. And I think as
• 1:11
  Speaker 3: early as Tuesday, you'll start to see those temperatures climbing
• 1:14
  Speaker 3: back up again. And certainly by Wednesday and Thursday, it
• 1:17
  Speaker 3: looks like you'll have a warmer northwesterly that begins its
• 1:21
  Speaker 3: life way up in inland outback parts of New South
• 1:25
  Speaker 3: Wales and desert parts of Queensland. So that's the kind
• 1:29
  Speaker 3: of wind that you want to get after the weather
• 1:31
  Speaker 3: that you've been having.
• 1:32
  Speaker 2: Okay, so based on that, are we going to see
• 1:34
  Speaker 2: the ground to start to dry out soon?
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: Have we got those kind of winds in the forecast?
• 1:39
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I think so. The winds aren't overly strong. It's
• 1:43
  Speaker 3: just more of that airflow that just sort of gradually
• 1:47
  Speaker 3: starts to push temperatures up more and more. We do
• 1:50
  Speaker 3: see that as we go into next week. It's a
• 1:53
  Speaker 3: northwesterly wind next Thursday and Friday. So really, Wednesday, Thursday,
• 1:57
  Speaker 3: Friday next week, your maximum temperatures could be anywhere between
• 2:01
  Speaker 3: as low as 15 degrees and as high as maybe
• 2:04
  Speaker 3: 18 or 19. So we've got some warmer days coming through.
• 2:08
  Speaker 3: The downside is between now and then, we've got another
• 2:11
  Speaker 3: polar blast coming through, and that will be especially noticeable
• 2:15
  Speaker 3: on Saturday night and on Sunday morning. You've got wet
• 2:19
  Speaker 3: weather coming through on Saturday night with an overnight low
• 2:22
  Speaker 3: of four, which means there is a very good chance
• 2:25
  Speaker 3: there'll be snow on the hills around you. Whether it
• 2:27
  Speaker 3: settles or not is a different question. But snow is
• 2:30
  Speaker 3: expected on the hills around you. Can't even rule out
• 2:33
  Speaker 3: the chance of some snow flurries in Gore itself. Because,
• 2:37
  Speaker 3: as I say, if it's four degrees and raining, that's
• 2:40
  Speaker 3: getting down into that close to snow territory. Or it
• 2:43
  Speaker 3: may just be kind of a sleety rain. Sunday's cold
• 2:46
  Speaker 3: with a high of eight. Monday's cold with a high
• 2:48
  Speaker 3: of nine. But like I say, it warms up next week.
• 2:51
  Speaker 3: And so hopefully next week you'll be able to say
• 2:54
  Speaker 3: in Southland, gosh, it's feeling like spring rather than winter
• 2:58
  Speaker 3: ever end.
• 2:59
  Speaker 2: Okay, the cycle for October then, are we going to
• 3:02
  Speaker 2: see a continuation or gradually we will be able to
• 3:06
  Speaker 2: get these warmer temperatures, get that ground growing, get some
• 3:09
  Speaker 2: groundwork done, some tailing up and running?
• 3:11
  Speaker 3: Yeah, what we're looking for with the longer range modelling
• 3:14
  Speaker 3: is what happens with the placement of the big high
• 3:18
  Speaker 3: pressure zones that we've got around the country at the moment.
• 3:21
  Speaker 3: And as I look forward into October, the long range maps,
• 3:25
  Speaker 3: are still showing high pressure zones coming out of the
• 3:28
  Speaker 3: Tasman Sea. That's what we would expect, by the way,
• 3:31
  Speaker 3: during El Nino. That is a classic El Nino setup
• 3:35
  Speaker 3: to be getting high pressure west of us. And so
• 3:37
  Speaker 3: that is certainly in the forecast as we go through
• 3:39
  Speaker 3: the next couple of weeks going into October. Still getting
• 3:42
  Speaker 3: a westerly flow, which means a warm nor'westerly one day,
• 3:45
  Speaker 3: a colder southwesterly a couple of days later. But hopefully
• 3:49
  Speaker 3: some of those highs might start to track further into
• 3:52
  Speaker 3: New Zealand as we go through the middle part of October.
• 3:56
  Speaker 3: So that would bring us more settled days. But it's
• 3:58
  Speaker 3: still a little bit messy coming through. But what I'm
• 4:00
  Speaker 3: looking at here, just while I'm talking to you, seems
• 4:03
  Speaker 3: to be a drop in that polar boundary, the polar
• 4:06
  Speaker 3: boundary that has been frequently surging up and over New Zealand.
• 4:10
  Speaker 3: Not to say that it won't come back in again
• 4:12
  Speaker 3: in the middle of October. But what I am seeing
• 4:15
  Speaker 3: is a lack of that colder weather over us quite
• 4:18
  Speaker 3: as much over the next couple of weeks coming through.
• 4:20
  Speaker 3: So I'm really hopeful that this weekend may be kind
• 4:24
  Speaker 3: of a break after this cold front comes through, maybe
• 4:27
  Speaker 3: a bit of a break from getting quite so many
• 4:29
  Speaker 3: of these colder weather changes.
• 4:31
  Speaker 1: Where are we as far as El Nino, I suppose,
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: would be the best way to ask?
• 4:34
  Speaker 3: Well, it's still strengthening. It's still intensifying. So it's warming
• 4:40
  Speaker 3: up more at the equator north of Fiji, and that's
• 4:43
  Speaker 3: going to continue to do so for another couple more months.
• 4:46
  Speaker 3: There are signs, though, that it may not get much
• 4:49
  Speaker 3: stronger than it already is. That bodes well for us
• 4:52
  Speaker 3: at the moment. Our weather pattern, I mean, I know
• 4:54
  Speaker 3: it's not been overly pleasant for you, but for the
• 4:57
  Speaker 3: country as a whole, it's been actually fairly positive this year,
• 5:01
  Speaker 3: this spring. Now, if it can stay that way going
• 5:04
  Speaker 3: through spring, that's really good, and we won't get many complaints.
• 5:07
  Speaker 3: The problem that I'm, the thing that I'm most worried
• 5:10
  Speaker 3: about is that these highs that have been out over
• 5:12
  Speaker 3: the Tasman Sea bringing us these cold changes and these
• 5:15
  Speaker 3: showers may start to actually cross over New Zealand a
• 5:18
  Speaker 3: lot more. And if that happens, and as we get
• 5:21
  Speaker 3: into November and each high, one after the other, starts
• 5:24
  Speaker 3: to link up like a chain link fence, that's when
• 5:27
  Speaker 3: you start to run into really dry spells of weather.
• 5:30
  Speaker 3: and that could be mixed in with windy westerlies. That
• 5:33
  Speaker 3: would be the problem. So for the people that are
• 5:35
  Speaker 3: saying so much for El Nino or so much for
• 5:38
  Speaker 3: a super El Nino and all that jazz, I get
• 5:41
  Speaker 3: it because the weather in New Zealand hasn't been too
• 5:43
  Speaker 3: negative in the sense of it being dry and hot.
• 5:46
  Speaker 3: But that change can happen from October onwards. And so
• 5:50
  Speaker 3: that's why I'm saying just be cautious about what's going on,
• 5:53
  Speaker 3: but we should be happy that the Southern Ocean is
• 5:56
  Speaker 3: very active at the moment And while that has brought
• 5:58
  Speaker 3: you a bit of a miserable spring so far, it
• 6:00
  Speaker 3: may actually be a bit of a silver lining if
• 6:03
  Speaker 3: we go into a drier spell. So El Nino is
• 6:06
  Speaker 3: something to keep an eye on. For now, it's been
• 6:08
  Speaker 3: a fairly positive event for New Zealand, but that could
• 6:11
  Speaker 3: easily change over the next weeks ahead. And I'm not
• 6:13
  Speaker 3: trying to say that to be negative or drum up
• 6:15
  Speaker 3: ratings or anything like that, but just covering my bases,
• 6:18
  Speaker 3: just saying that, yeah, it's been actually pretty good so far,
• 6:21
  Speaker 3: but it may not hold on that way going through
• 6:23
  Speaker 3: the months ahead.
• 6:25
  Speaker 2: But at the moment, for the next seven days, a
• 6:26
  Speaker 2: couple of colder nights ahead, but definitely getting double-digit temperatures
• 6:30
  Speaker 2: into next week.
• 6:32
  Speaker 3: That is exactly it.
• 6:33
  Speaker 1: Well, take that, Phil Duncan. Always appreciate your time.
• 6:36
  Speaker 3: My pleasure. Thank you.
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: Phil Duncan of Weather Watch, every Friday here on the muster.
• 6:42
  Speaker 2: Go and give him a follow on his social channels,
• 6:46
  Speaker 2: YouTube and everything, doing a great job, and we always
• 6:48
  Speaker 2: appreciate his time.
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: Michelle, what's up next in the Country Crossover?