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The Favorites - NFL Week 3 Betting Preview · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: It's the favorites podcast presented by Fanduel. Football season is
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  Speaker 1: One eight seven seven seven seven zero stop in Louise, Sianna.
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  Speaker 1: One eight seven seven eight hope, N Y, or text
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: hope and why in New York Tennessee redline is one
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  Speaker 1: eight hundred, eight, eight nine nine, one eight hundred, five
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: to hundred in Wyoming, or visit www one eight hundred
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: gambler dot net in West Virginia. Welcome to the favorites,
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: the podcast from the volume podcast network. I am Chad Mellman,
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: chief content officer of the Action Network. I am joined,
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: as I am every single episode, by my companion, my
• 1:40
  Speaker 1: co host, my bff, my compadre, professional better, Simon Hunter. Chat.
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: What a weekend. What at last, thirty six hours for
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: your friends, Simon here, I bet green bay right, we're
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: all we're all in on Green Bay half time. went
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: to bed at Sunday night, say ten o'clock. Wake up
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: three am, answer emails, text, get all the bets in,
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: make new bets. See what bets hit. Five Am. Quick shower,
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: head over to my MOM's. Go in. Guess what it is, chat,
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: it's the funeral for the Queen. Don't know a lot
• 2:15
  Speaker 1: of new listeners. You're from England, loosely. My Mom's from England.
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: I was born in America, but I am British like
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: I spent a lot of lived in England for a
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: long time, but I don't want the government to knock
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: on my door. I am an American citizen. Um, yeah,
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: so I went over with my mom, watched the funeral
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: and I said, were like it's like eight am at
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: this point. I go I gotta go work. She goes, Oh,
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: don't worry, it will be over soon. The Queen's very modest.
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: She says she don't want a long funeral. So I
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: go back my go home, I sleep, I wake up,
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: I call her, she says, yeah, it's still going on.
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: So I mean six hours passed. So this woman had
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: a funeral for about eleven hours. Uh, got bust. The
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: Queen head to the Eagles game. Obviously saw that game,
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: went to bed, woke up work this morning. Now I'm
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: doing a podcast with chat. So for me it's been
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: a world win three or six hours and I'm excited
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: to talk about week three. Slightly underprepared, but come on,
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: people get let me live a little. It's rare the
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: Eagles win a Monday night game. I think it's the
• 3:11
  Speaker 1: first time we've opened the season on a Monday night
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: in about fifteen years. So well, this podcast had a
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: really big night on Monday night. The Buffalo Bills, Matt
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: Mitchell's team. Uh. They dominated the Tennessee Titans as ten
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: point favorites in prime time and they are looking like
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: one of those teams that you get, those teams that
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: they just come out and they're so dominant from the beginning.
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: They exceed every expectation when they were already high. The Eagles,
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: a team we've been loving since before the season started,
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: are really performing at a level that proves the roster moves.
• 3:51
  Speaker 1: We're smart, but also the jitalen hurts, who the numbers
• 3:56
  Speaker 1: back up, has been one of the best performing quarterbacks
• 3:58
  Speaker 1: since he started, uh as a starter for the eagles.
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: He was amazing last night, Simon even more amazing. We
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: went three and two in our phase five. Uh. So
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: we are now eight and two on the year. Goal
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: of my friend, uh, you and you cash right and
• 4:17
  Speaker 1: you do very well. So we went three and two.
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: Is My favorite saying. If you're six, you can go
• 4:22
  Speaker 1: three and two every weekend. Are Good News for you
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: can literally quit your job and do this as a career.
• 4:27
  Speaker 1: That's right. If you want to again, follow the phase
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: five in the action network APP. That's where we put
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: all of our contest picks. We did really well with
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: all of our picks last week. Um, uh, I would
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: say the team that we totally love right now the
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: Jacksonville Jaguars. They were one of our phase five. They
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: were my exact decision. Uh. They opened it four and
• 4:50
  Speaker 1: a half. Last week they closed it three. They dominated.
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: They were great. Here's what's interesting to me, and I
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: want to get your take on this. We were on
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: the Jags at twelve to to win the A F
• 5:00
  Speaker 1: C south. We like the Jacks at seven and a half,
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: eight to want to win the A F C south.
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: I'm surprised that now the odds for the A F
• 5:08
  Speaker 1: C south, uh, the jags are still like three to one,
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: at least before the game last night. I should have
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: checked before I came on the podcast today. How about
• 5:18
  Speaker 1: the jags not the odds on favorite to win that
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: division right now? Yeah, I'd say that goes a lot
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: into the money that's driving that number around. Right the
• 5:26
  Speaker 1: position the book needs to take, and also they got
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: other factors into it. Of this Jaguar team really hasn't
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: proved them before. I know neither of the culture right
• 5:34
  Speaker 1: the colts have not won that division, but it just
• 5:37
  Speaker 1: seems like the book is just hesitant to it. So
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: it was the public where, like me and you talked
• 5:40
  Speaker 1: about it. We just looked at this whole division overall
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: and said, who the hell are the cults? Who is?
• 5:45
  Speaker 1: Who the hell is Tennessee to be favored by again?
• 5:48
  Speaker 1: Twelve to one is what we were giving out the
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: jags all summer. Um. It's it's just typical football, right.
• 5:54
  Speaker 1: People are based on everything off last year. Now looking
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: at this year and looking all the weaknesses of Tennessee,
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: you know, look at the same thing with the colts.
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: It's like, yeah, nothing against Matt Ryan, it's just we
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: really haven't seen it from him in a lot of
• 6:06
  Speaker 1: years and people expected him to come in and just
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: be this savior for them, which is not so. And
• 6:10
  Speaker 1: we backed a second year quarterback and that's always an
• 6:12
  Speaker 1: advantage for us back in the second year quarterback to
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: take a step and the team has the money to
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: spend on the rest of the team. Like again, there's
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: gonna be a bunch teams we'll talk about today. That's
• 6:22
  Speaker 1: the building blocks. Like if you can get that cheat
• 6:24
  Speaker 1: coat of a cheap quarterback, you can spend the money
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: elsewhere and the quarterback improves. That's how you make runs.
• 6:30
  Speaker 1: So yeah, feeling really good. Two weeks in. A bunch
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: of calls we made. Um, it's they're we're looking pretty smart.
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: Like again the lines, big win. That was another team
• 6:38
  Speaker 1: we really love coming into the year in Houston, and
• 6:42
  Speaker 1: the in Atlanta, both too, and Oh, against the spread,
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: two teams we talked about being undervalued coming into the season,
• 6:48
  Speaker 1: Atlanta shure. I still think Atlanta should be too, and
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: know they've left these games. They didn't get away from him.
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: But again it's just exciting seeing like the work we
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: put in. It's coming to fruition. Our only big miss,
• 6:59
  Speaker 1: only team we're really out on that came to the
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: year and did well. Giants too, and Oh, giants start
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: the year again. It's two weeks in, but man, that
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: that to me is one of more shocking records. You
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: look on paper, because again there's only like five or
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: six teams to and Oh, the giants really stand out
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: right now. We went three and two last week. We
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: won the Jags, we won the Patriots, we won the eagles,
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: we lost in the saints, we lost the Panthers. If
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: we had to frame it as which team has stabbed
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: us in the back, the panthers. Still, they lost the
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: giants this past weekend game they should have won, ugly
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: game they lost. They lost to the browns the weekend before,
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: another one that they should have won. Man, I was
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: really high on this Panther's team before the season started. UH,
• 7:47
  Speaker 1: they're not performing up to their I see what you're like.
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: I saw what you see, though, right like we still
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: think thefc south. A couple of games go a little
• 7:54
  Speaker 1: different again at Lanta, their two and O will be
• 7:56
  Speaker 1: tied with the bucks. Right now in that division. It's like,
• 7:59
  Speaker 1: you know, it's it's a closer then people are perceived.
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: But the baker factor, so that that's been the tough
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: pill to swallow. It's like we need Baker to have
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: these moments to stop up in two weeks in a
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: row he's kind of burned us. So, yeah, he just
• 8:10
  Speaker 1: hasn't been. He just hasn't that's exactly what it is.
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: I believed in Baker. Maybe I shouldn't have to close
• 8:15
  Speaker 1: it out. The housekeeping. Sonnon says last week it was
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: the niners minus nine and a half. Excellent work. The
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: exact decision was the Jags by me. Excellent work, Chad.
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: The big balls New York. Yet yea US Foxhole was
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: the saints. We lost that one. Chad had the JAGS
• 8:38
  Speaker 1: and Scooch Roulette. He's now two, and Oh Simon had
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: the saints and scootrow letting one and one reminder. Follow
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: the favorites podcast in the action network APP to get
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: those picks. We're separating out the phase five at its
• 8:55
  Speaker 1: own handle so we can just track the five that
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: we love for our contest every week. And someone, someone
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: DM me and said can you explain the contest? So
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: you and I are in a high stakes contest where
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: we have to choose five games every week. Those lines
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: lock in the middle of the week, but the selections
• 9:16
  Speaker 1: aren't doing until Sunday. So we are constantly in contact
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: thinking about the five that we love and then on
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: Sunday we nail, we lock in those, those five picks,
• 9:25
  Speaker 1: and we put that in the APP under the phase
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: five and I'll put in notes about whether or not
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: we still like the line, if the line has moved, etcetera, etcetera.
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: Simon steelers Brown's open two and a half. This Thursday
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: night football got bet up to five and a half.
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: Now it's four and a half. I will tell you.
• 9:50
  Speaker 1: I bet the steelers at five and a half. That
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: was just too big of an adjustment. Made no sense
• 9:55
  Speaker 1: for me for this number to be at five and
• 9:57
  Speaker 1: a half. The money on the steelers right now. That's interesting.
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: You like you came in on Pittsburgh. I would have
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: been all over the browns coming out just because of
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: that loss they just had, where the steelers just looked,
• 10:11
  Speaker 1: not that they gave up, but like, like we talked
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: about having a quarterback you can believe in. It just
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: doesn't feel like they believe in Mitch so. I just
• 10:18
  Speaker 1: don't really have a good vibe with them right now,
• 10:20
  Speaker 1: where it's like the Patriots were dying to give that
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: game away, like they had the ball three different times
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: when they were down three and they could not put
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: a drive together with Mitch Um. So, coming in this game,
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: I was looking actually back on the browns. Um I
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: thought you were getting a fair number and in fact
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: it was under six. But now we're a getting news
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: that you know, clowne's out, miles Garrett might be out
• 10:41
  Speaker 1: now you just popped up the injury report again. Short week,
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: quick turnaround. Tough for me to really make a play
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: on this. Like I might be inclined to take the
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: over because I have two quarterbacks that you know, they
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: could turn their ball over. They're kind of a risky
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: quarterback play, like both of them are. For set played
• 10:58
  Speaker 1: very well against the jets Um. That was just more
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: on the defense that broke down the end there. So
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: to me, yeah, I honestly leaned towards the Browns, but
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: because it's so early and I don't really know enough
• 11:08
  Speaker 1: injury news, I can't really tell anyone to bet this one.
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: Like me and Chad have zero chance to play this
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: in the contest because there's not much value in it.
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: Um To me, the only reason we're gonna talk about
• 11:17
  Speaker 1: and play this because it's a Thursday night game. This
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: is just a classic, Gross Thursday night divisional game. Well,
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: that's why that that's one of the reasons for me
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: and UH is. I think the number got too high.
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: These games tend to be very close. Four is now
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: a key number as well. I was getting well over
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: the four at five and a half. I felt like
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: I had a decent amount of cushion. In a short week.
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: Divisional rivals, these games tend to play to three. I
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: like the dogs here. Don't know it again, this is
• 11:50
  Speaker 1: gonna be an underplay too. So it's like historically short,
• 11:54
  Speaker 1: short total. You take this. You just blindly take the
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: dog here, especially divisionally. Um, I told you. I just Paul,
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: because the data backs up. The home favorites historically click covered,
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: almost clip on Thursday nights. So that's one of those
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: where it's like yeah, Sunday game I look at it
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: a little differently, but I always leaned towards the favorites
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: on Thursday nights. If I get back door again, like
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: last week, so be it. Uh, it just prevails out
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: the math that has taken favorites on Thursdays. Here's a
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: great note from Evan Abrahams are Director of research at
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: the Action Network. UH, since two thousand ten Thursday games
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: with a total of forty or below are eighteen and
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: five to the under, hitting the under by eight point
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: nine points per game. UH, so they're averaging about thirty
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: one points per game. Uh. This is the lowest Thursday
• 12:45
  Speaker 1: night football total since Chicago played Detroit in two thousand nineteen.
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: It was thirty seven and a half. The total in
• 12:56
  Speaker 1: this game, if I haven't said it, is a thirty
• 13:00
  Speaker 1: eight and a half is the best number that you
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: can get right now. Oh, I guess we know what
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: we're gonna bet, then, Chid I guess we do right.
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• 13:52
  Speaker 1: That's net suite dot com slash favorites. All Right, Ravens, patriots, boy,
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: this look aheadline on this was pick. It's now ravens
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: minus three. Ravens. Look, we got to talk about the
• 14:08
  Speaker 1: Ravens for a second. There was an interesting conversation on
• 14:11
  Speaker 1: the Action Network, a podcast that's stucky and Raybond had
• 14:14
  Speaker 1: again listen to the Action Network podcast. That Thursday version.
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: Chris Raybond and stuck. You will nail down six of
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: their favorite picks. There's Sunday six pack. Stucky was all
• 14:24
  Speaker 1: over the first half in this game. He's like, just
• 14:26
  Speaker 1: bet the Ravens in the first half. It turns out
• 14:28
  Speaker 1: he was right. We liked the ravens minus three and
• 14:31
  Speaker 1: a half. We knew weren't going to get the three,
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: so we bet it three and a half. Boy, we
• 14:34
  Speaker 1: looked good for about forty seven minutes. Yeah, what can
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: you do it? There's honest the only thing I would
• 14:42
  Speaker 1: take away from that. I'd be really happy is Miami Fan.
• 14:44
  Speaker 1: It's like your coach obviously can scheme it up two
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: obviously throw it and you have two incredible wide receivers.
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: But now there's nothing to take away. I mean, I
• 14:53
  Speaker 1: guess I'm a little worried. The Ravens can't eat a
• 14:55
  Speaker 1: clock away and there's supposed to be a great running team,
• 14:57
  Speaker 1: but they're up the defense. It was on a hot
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: field in the second half and just had a track
• 15:03
  Speaker 1: meet and they just got burnt like. Well, I don't
• 15:05
  Speaker 1: know what. They give up twenty eight points, I think
• 15:07
  Speaker 1: in the fourth quarter. It's yeah, yeah, we've we've never
• 15:11
  Speaker 1: seen it before. It's a historical things. So yeah, it sucks.
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: I lost a ton of money on it, but it's
• 15:15
  Speaker 1: just like all right, under the next one. It's just
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: something you've never seen before in dolphins history, dolphins long history.
• 15:22
  Speaker 1: They've never scored that many points in the fourth quarter.
• 15:24
  Speaker 1: Like even thinking all those Don Shula teams, the Marino teams,
• 15:27
  Speaker 1: never happened. So it's just I don't know what to
• 15:30
  Speaker 1: take from it. It's like, should I overrate Miami? Nour
• 15:33
  Speaker 1: do nothing with it? I'm probably gonna do nothing. My
• 15:35
  Speaker 1: only pause is, what the Hell is going on Baltimore?
• 15:37
  Speaker 1: They can't freaking run the ball and milk away a
• 15:40
  Speaker 1: thirty five or four team lead. It's it's a little
• 15:42
  Speaker 1: scary when they're supposed to be the best unning team
• 15:44
  Speaker 1: of football. So I guess that's the biggest pause. But
• 15:47
  Speaker 1: the only thing is I'm just I guess I'm just
• 15:49
  Speaker 1: excited about Miami. It's like that. That too is stuff.
• 15:52
  Speaker 1: That's a lot of noise. He dealt with the Tom
• 15:54
  Speaker 1: Brady stuff, everything that went on. He obviously's got the goods,
• 15:57
  Speaker 1: like he was making those throws. Um. It's just hard
• 16:00
  Speaker 1: to know if that was legit or if that was
• 16:02
  Speaker 1: just a fluke in that situation. Well, look, he might
• 16:05
  Speaker 1: have all the talents in the world and wasn't being
• 16:08
  Speaker 1: put in the right schemes. Um and there was a stat.
• 16:13
  Speaker 1: Next Gen stats had it. I think UH Brandon Anderson
• 16:19
  Speaker 1: mentioned this on the Monday Action Network podcast, the review podcast.
• 16:25
  Speaker 1: Ravens defensive backs ran sixty four hundred yards trying to
• 16:32
  Speaker 1: keep up with dolphins receivers on Sunday afternoon. Yeah, it's
• 16:38
  Speaker 1: that's an impossible situation you put in. Here's another interesting
• 16:42
  Speaker 1: one and John Harbaugh in his career is the best
• 16:46
  Speaker 1: first half R O I as a coach in his career.
• 16:50
  Speaker 1: Lamar Jackson the last five years, first half most profitable
• 16:54
  Speaker 1: qb Tibet in the first half. All that said, Ravens
• 16:57
  Speaker 1: are three point favorites on the road against the Patriots.
• 17:02
  Speaker 1: I feel like the Patriots are not a very good team.
• 17:05
  Speaker 1: You know what to do, though. We have there's no
• 17:07
  Speaker 1: there's only one play here, Chad. We make this bet
• 17:10
  Speaker 1: almost nine out of ten times. The numbers back it
• 17:13
  Speaker 1: up to but we play the Patriots here every time.
• 17:15
  Speaker 1: It's again belichick at home as a dog against a
• 17:18
  Speaker 1: team that something's not right there clearly, like the jets,
• 17:22
  Speaker 1: were actually moving the ball on this Baltimore team. So
• 17:25
  Speaker 1: if the Ravens are down four cornerbacks again, that's a
• 17:28
  Speaker 1: major issue. Like Mac Jones, look pedestrian. This could be
• 17:32
  Speaker 1: the cure he needs a team that's given up the
• 17:33
  Speaker 1: most receiving yards to anyone else in football. So, Um Yeah, too,
• 17:38
  Speaker 1: too much respect for a ravens team that doesn't deserve
• 17:40
  Speaker 1: the respect right now. I'm with you. Patriots Stink, but
• 17:44
  Speaker 1: I take this plus three every time. It's just a
• 17:46
  Speaker 1: situational play for the most part. Do we think this
• 17:49
  Speaker 1: is a this doesn't feel like a contest play to me.
• 17:54
  Speaker 1: We'll see. It could turn into one, maybe if they
• 17:56
  Speaker 1: give us a better number, because like three. Three is
• 17:58
  Speaker 1: a great number, but obviously went three and a half,
• 18:00
  Speaker 1: so I would say three. No, but three and a
• 18:02
  Speaker 1: half I definitely think about it. We might get there.
• 18:04
  Speaker 1: Right now, the split between on bets is nine Ravens.
• 18:09
  Speaker 1: So this number could get higher. It could, but again
• 18:12
  Speaker 1: we saw it last week of the pros. The pros
• 18:14
  Speaker 1: always keep these numbers in check. So, Dallas, we loved
• 18:16
  Speaker 1: it eight and a half. We still liked that at seven,
• 18:19
  Speaker 1: but we literally did the shows eight and a half.
• 18:20
  Speaker 1: The next show we did it was down to seven.
• 18:22
  Speaker 1: Like the pros, don't let the numbers sit at a
• 18:23
  Speaker 1: key number for that long. So if you see three
• 18:26
  Speaker 1: and a half, I would grab that right away. Again,
• 18:28
  Speaker 1: action APP turned the alert on, but we'll let you know.
• 18:30
  Speaker 1: And it's three and a half. Good promotion right there, buddy.
• 18:34
  Speaker 1: All right, this next game chief's colts. Colts are seven
• 18:39
  Speaker 1: point underdogs right now. That's the best number out there.
• 18:44
  Speaker 1: Full Confession. I bet the colts plus seven this morning.
• 18:50
  Speaker 1: I would have waited on the injury report Um see
• 18:53
  Speaker 1: if if their team's gonna be healthy, just because they
• 18:56
  Speaker 1: had two major injuries last week. But yeah, no brainer play.
• 19:00
  Speaker 1: Colts are are run dominant team going against the chiefs team.
• 19:03
  Speaker 1: That that's kind of their biggest weaknesses. They can give
• 19:05
  Speaker 1: up big runs, you can ball control against the chiefs.
• 19:09
  Speaker 1: It's a great spot to be in and we already
• 19:11
  Speaker 1: knew as soon as this number came out. I saw
• 19:13
  Speaker 1: the six and a half. Every teaser leg will have
• 19:15
  Speaker 1: the chiefs in it this week. It's like the bengals
• 19:17
  Speaker 1: from last week. It's just even Cleveland last week. There
• 19:20
  Speaker 1: are just no brain or teaser plays that's what the
• 19:22
  Speaker 1: chiefs will be this week. So I would say it
• 19:25
  Speaker 1: makes sense. You better early because again, I don't think
• 19:27
  Speaker 1: that seven is gonna be there that long. I think
• 19:29
  Speaker 1: the pros will hit it. Um. But yeah, again, I
• 19:33
  Speaker 1: wanted to make this my Simon says play, but I
• 19:36
  Speaker 1: just don't see enough sevens out there to give it out.
• 19:38
  Speaker 1: I think everyone's stuck at six and a half and
• 19:40
  Speaker 1: I don't wanna be that guy ticking the seven, giving
• 19:42
  Speaker 1: out the six and a half. Well, the one thing
• 19:43
  Speaker 1: I can say is the seven has been there for
• 19:45
  Speaker 1: a while. I thought it would disappear immediately. What's that?
• 19:51
  Speaker 1: And only that. All depends on the book. Like I'm
• 19:53
  Speaker 1: on the APP right now. There's plenty, plenty of six
• 19:55
  Speaker 1: and a half. Yeah, there's a lot of six and
• 19:56
  Speaker 1: a half. There's not. There's one seven and it's just
• 19:59
  Speaker 1: sitting there and I it's actually interesting to me that
• 20:01
  Speaker 1: it hasn't moved. Um, I would say that's probably the
• 20:05
  Speaker 1: most public book. Yeah, I guess that's true. Yeah, it's
• 20:08
  Speaker 1: totally true. Um, all right. Well, I thought this would
• 20:13
  Speaker 1: we we would make this some kind of Simon says
• 20:18
  Speaker 1: executive decision. It's got a foxhole feel to it, but
• 20:21
  Speaker 1: I can see why you'd want to hold off. I'm
• 20:23
  Speaker 1: putting this in any one of these things until we
• 20:26
  Speaker 1: get more status on the injury yeah, because that's again
• 20:30
  Speaker 1: they have two. Two of their best players were hurt
• 20:32
  Speaker 1: last week. So to me, if Leonard's out and Pittman's
• 20:37
  Speaker 1: out again, that's that's that's again the best defensive player
• 20:40
  Speaker 1: than the best receiver are out. That's that's a big deal.
• 20:43
  Speaker 1: All right. So right now, basically what you've said is
• 20:45
  Speaker 1: I bet the UH steelers five and a half. You
• 20:48
  Speaker 1: don't love it. I bet the colts plus seven. You
• 20:51
  Speaker 1: feel like I might have pulled the trigger too early. Oh,
• 20:54
  Speaker 1: I think you've got a good number. I'm saying anyone
• 20:56
  Speaker 1: else that's getting six and a half, I just wouldn't
• 20:57
  Speaker 1: do it. It's not worth it because you already missed
• 20:59
  Speaker 1: the seven. The lions. It's not going blows six right
• 21:03
  Speaker 1: like there's no chance. That's number six. So that's what
• 21:05
  Speaker 1: I'm saying. The lions are visiting the Vikings. I don't
• 21:11
  Speaker 1: know why this number is so big right now. The
• 21:13
  Speaker 1: lions are six point underdogs in this game. The money
• 21:19
  Speaker 1: and the tickets are moving in their direction. So the
• 21:21
  Speaker 1: line has moved down from six and a half. Uh.
• 21:24
  Speaker 1: Kirk cousins was terrible on money night football, which is
• 21:26
  Speaker 1: what we expect. Um, the lions either can't stop anybody
• 21:31
  Speaker 1: or are the greatest offensive team since the San Diego chargers.
• 21:38
  Speaker 1: Dan Campbell continues to be both lovable and sneaky, sneaky smart. Um,
• 21:46
  Speaker 1: lions plus six. What's say? You like new coming in?
• 21:50
  Speaker 1: I feel like the Vikens are probably gonna be an
• 21:51
  Speaker 1: auto played for me, just coming in off the fact
• 21:54
  Speaker 1: that everything you just said like we all love the lines.
• 21:57
  Speaker 1: They just had back to back home games. Now they're
• 21:59
  Speaker 1: going on the road to play divisional foe that just lost.
• 22:02
  Speaker 1: That we know. At one o'clock on a Sunday against
• 22:05
  Speaker 1: a divisional team, you just take Kirk here. So to me,
• 22:09
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna work this week trying to convince chat and
• 22:11
  Speaker 1: make this one o war five, but this is one
• 22:13
  Speaker 1: of my favorite favorites this week. Um, they had all
• 22:16
  Speaker 1: the opportunity of the world right against the eagles. They
• 22:18
  Speaker 1: had a blocked field goal, they had to turn over
• 22:21
  Speaker 1: in the red zone, like it just wasn't their night.
• 22:24
  Speaker 1: Every little thing they could go wrong went wrong, and
• 22:27
  Speaker 1: Kirk looked horrible. We've seen this now ten times out
• 22:30
  Speaker 1: of Kirk Right. He's he's doing ten on Monday night football. Um,
• 22:34
  Speaker 1: maybe I'll reach out to evan and try to get
• 22:36
  Speaker 1: the Info and what his record is after that Monday
• 22:38
  Speaker 1: night game. But it's gotta be good, like this is
• 22:40
  Speaker 1: the this is the buying low on Kirk and this
• 22:42
  Speaker 1: is where we want to be with Kirk right. This
• 22:44
  Speaker 1: always works out for me and Chad, buying low and
• 22:46
  Speaker 1: Kirk at home on a Sunday. I mean, I want
• 22:50
  Speaker 1: to be all in on the lines because this is
• 22:51
  Speaker 1: this is a big deal right. This would flip to
• 22:54
  Speaker 1: me their divisional odds. If the lines win this game,
• 22:57
  Speaker 1: I think they would be even odds right now to
• 22:59
  Speaker 1: win this divis and obviously Green Bay would still be
• 23:01
  Speaker 1: at the top. But yeah, a huge game for the lines.
• 23:05
  Speaker 1: I just can't get behind it. It's just like I
• 23:07
  Speaker 1: get it. They've they've they've played well. They had to
• 23:09
  Speaker 1: come back on the eagles, who looked like world beaters.
• 23:11
  Speaker 1: But I don't think the Vikings are as bad as
• 23:13
  Speaker 1: people perceived it. They just had a really bad night
• 23:15
  Speaker 1: on Monday night against the eagles. How do you have
• 23:19
  Speaker 1: what's your number on this game seven. So, like I
• 23:21
  Speaker 1: thought it was good at seven like that made sense
• 23:23
  Speaker 1: to me. The fact that dropped a point makes even
• 23:25
  Speaker 1: more sense. Right, like literally what we just saw last night.
• 23:28
  Speaker 1: WHO's gonna Back Kirk? There's just a few of us
• 23:30
  Speaker 1: out here that's gonna be like no, like this is
• 23:33
  Speaker 1: what Kirk does, this is when you went in back Kirk.
• 23:35
  Speaker 1: But I think the public just forgets that. They're just
• 23:37
  Speaker 1: so piste off at him because it's like, you suck, Kirk,
• 23:40
  Speaker 1: this is why we all hate you. or it's like
• 23:42
  Speaker 1: he's not terrible, he's just average. He's never gonna be
• 23:46
  Speaker 1: above average. He's just is what he is. I don't
• 23:49
  Speaker 1: know why you feel like you have to convince me
• 23:51
  Speaker 1: of that. Uh Well, I just figured you'd be on lines,
• 23:54
  Speaker 1: because we love the lines like we love the lines,
• 23:55
  Speaker 1: and this is a good number at six, six and
• 23:57
  Speaker 1: a half. Listen to me, I'm a profession you know, okay,
• 24:01
  Speaker 1: I don't bet the emotions, I bet what the right
• 24:05
  Speaker 1: side is, and right now I think you're getting a
• 24:08
  Speaker 1: bilow sell, high spot, boxel, Vikings and the lines, Foxhel on,
• 24:14
  Speaker 1: the Vikings, foxhole it. Let's clide down into the Foxhole,
• 24:23
  Speaker 1: Minnesota Vikings, because the money is are you saying? The
• 24:26
  Speaker 1: money and the tickets are on Detroit? Yeah, so, yeah, Foxhol, Foxhol,
• 24:31
  Speaker 1: Minnesota Vikings. I love it. I freaking love that bet. Man,
• 24:40
  Speaker 1: I still like I didn't know what I want to do,
• 24:42
  Speaker 1: and now then you're talking. I freaking love it. It
• 24:44
  Speaker 1: makes all the sense in the world. And this, by
• 24:46
  Speaker 1: the way, is the lesson we have to remember every
• 24:49
  Speaker 1: single week. Stick to our principles. This is and it
• 24:53
  Speaker 1: gets harder in week three because you don't have the
• 24:56
  Speaker 1: immediacy of the overreaction under reaction. You're sort of get
• 25:00
  Speaker 1: and clouded with biases from two weeks of games. But look,
• 25:05
  Speaker 1: you want to bet on the team that just floundered
• 25:08
  Speaker 1: in prime time. You want to bet against the team
• 25:11
  Speaker 1: that is the sentimental darling and they just look so good.
• 25:16
  Speaker 1: Like the last two weeks. The offense for Detroit has
• 25:18
  Speaker 1: just been absolutely humming. Yeah, alright, this next game, the
• 25:22
  Speaker 1: stats and the panthers, the stints or two and a
• 25:24
  Speaker 1: half point favorites on the road. Look, we just talked
• 25:26
  Speaker 1: about this. The panthers have been stabbing us in the
• 25:29
  Speaker 1: fucking back, in the fucking stomach, in the fucking groin.
• 25:33
  Speaker 1: They've been kicking our teeth in. They have disappointed US
• 25:37
  Speaker 1: both weeks. I think you might want to get yourself
• 25:39
  Speaker 1: a helmet and a bulletproof vest and an iron jockstrap,
• 25:41
  Speaker 1: because you're gonna get your head shot, your back stabbed
• 25:43
  Speaker 1: and you're nuts danced on. I feel like we did
• 25:46
  Speaker 1: this a couple of years ago. It might have been
• 25:48
  Speaker 1: the falcons, where we kept thinking that we saw something
• 25:51
  Speaker 1: that nobody else was seeing. It was totally fucking US up.
• 25:55
  Speaker 1: The Saints Look Against the Bucks. What was it? Five
• 25:59
  Speaker 1: turnovers multiple times they had a chance to like close
• 26:03
  Speaker 1: the gap and at least cover that game. CHRYSTAL law.
• 26:05
  Speaker 1: They fumbles the ball. When he falls to the ground
• 26:08
  Speaker 1: on a great play, like a great catch, Jamie went
• 26:12
  Speaker 1: back to being Jamis. The bucks were not very good.
• 26:15
  Speaker 1: So how do we not get the Panthers Plus Three here? Yeah,
• 26:20
  Speaker 1: and again I would say that game it was three, three,
• 26:23
  Speaker 1: and then that became a ref show, right like that
• 26:25
  Speaker 1: whole fight happen with Mike Evans, latymore and something clearly
• 26:29
  Speaker 1: happened when the referees took a side, like there was
• 26:31
  Speaker 1: back to back calls. They took Tampa down the field,
• 26:35
  Speaker 1: Tom threw a touchdown. That was the game, because then
• 26:36
  Speaker 1: Jamis had to start forcing it and we saw it happened.
• 26:39
  Speaker 1: Jamis forced it in there through a pick six. So
• 26:41
  Speaker 1: Saints Team. I definitely want to bet a lot of
• 26:44
  Speaker 1: money on them. Last week, if I've known that Winston
• 26:46
  Speaker 1: had what I was at four fractured ribs or something
• 26:48
  Speaker 1: like that, it's like it's brutal when you get that
• 26:51
  Speaker 1: alert at twelve thirty from Schefter of a major injury
• 26:55
  Speaker 1: and it's like well, I can't get out of any
• 26:57
  Speaker 1: of these bets, I just gotta ride this out. I've
• 26:59
  Speaker 1: given out a podcast. I give it on our show
• 27:01
  Speaker 1: on Sunday morning. So that was brutal. But just looking
• 27:04
  Speaker 1: at this matchup, I think Chad touched on it. You
• 27:07
  Speaker 1: have two teams ots. Neither of them have covered this season. Right,
• 27:11
  Speaker 1: Carolina's owned two. Just historically in this position you take
• 27:15
  Speaker 1: the underdog and it hits it like a fifty eight
• 27:17
  Speaker 1: six rate. In Week three the team that two owned
• 27:21
  Speaker 1: team to own. Two teams were facing off a t s.
• 27:24
  Speaker 1: You just take the dog in this position. There's another
• 27:26
  Speaker 1: game like that this week. Um who was at raiders
• 27:28
  Speaker 1: Tennessee so it's kind of one of those where it's
• 27:31
  Speaker 1: like I alredy knew it was gonna like Carolina. They're
• 27:33
  Speaker 1: gonna be a home divisional dog at plus three. The
• 27:36
  Speaker 1: fact that there's gonna be trends back in it and
• 27:39
  Speaker 1: Jameis has this major injury. It's a big deal, but
• 27:43
  Speaker 1: I cannot let us, and I will not let us
• 27:45
  Speaker 1: do it to the fans and putting this in our
• 27:46
  Speaker 1: contest again, because I just got so much hated that.
• 27:49
  Speaker 1: I'm with him. It's like I that was so unenjoyable
• 27:53
  Speaker 1: because I just had so I felt good. Didn't you
• 27:55
  Speaker 1: feel good that Carolina game? It's like yeah, yeah, it
• 27:58
  Speaker 1: was feeling. Even during the game I was like no,
• 27:59
  Speaker 1: like acres having these moments, Daniel Jones has falling apart
• 28:02
  Speaker 1: and it's like no, like as much as we want
• 28:04
  Speaker 1: to bag on the giants, Daniel Jones is making the
• 28:07
  Speaker 1: play and the head coach is making the right call.
• 28:09
  Speaker 1: So it's like yeah, Carolina Auto played for me and Chad,
• 28:13
  Speaker 1: but no chance, lets be on my five. There's other
• 28:15
  Speaker 1: games I like way more than this. We one felt great. Honestly,
• 28:22
  Speaker 1: we felt great, like about the saints, about the panthers,
• 28:28
  Speaker 1: all of those games. Like in the early Games, I
• 28:30
  Speaker 1: looked at the action APP and like I've got nothing
• 28:32
  Speaker 1: but green circles for win probability, and then, like as
• 28:36
  Speaker 1: the day went on, it all fell apart. Like I'll
• 28:39
  Speaker 1: tell you what's gonna kill us. I thought about this
• 28:41
  Speaker 1: last night. Illegal contact is going to be this year's
• 28:48
  Speaker 1: you know, holding the year before. You know it's going
• 28:54
  Speaker 1: to be the call that fucking kills us on so
• 28:58
  Speaker 1: many bets. A I mean no again. Refs rough stick
• 29:02
  Speaker 1: did a lot of these games. Even that raiders cardinals game.
• 29:05
  Speaker 1: They said there was holding in the end zone, even
• 29:06
  Speaker 1: though Kylin Murray was outside the tackle box, which means
• 29:09
  Speaker 1: you can put hands on defenders once the KBI bricks
• 29:11
  Speaker 1: tackle box again. It's just there's just so much that
• 29:14
  Speaker 1: goes on and that kind of stuff where it's like
• 29:16
  Speaker 1: trying to get bogged down on if I'm with you
• 29:17
  Speaker 1: about that, like that's something you gotta keep in mind
• 29:19
  Speaker 1: about betting. These totals unders have been great, though. Yeah,
• 29:23
  Speaker 1: Texans visiting the Chicago bears. They are right now two
• 29:29
  Speaker 1: and a half point underdogs. They have been overachieving as
• 29:33
  Speaker 1: a team against the spread. undervalued. Professional betters have loved them.
• 29:38
  Speaker 1: Look the bears. They were destined to get crushed by
• 29:42
  Speaker 1: the packers in prime time. We said it, we knew it. Uh,
• 29:46
  Speaker 1: we bet the under. We liked the packers at minus nine,
• 29:50
  Speaker 1: minus ten. The packers are. The bears are young team
• 29:53
  Speaker 1: that seemed hungover, like they were celebrating too much for
• 29:57
  Speaker 1: winning a game in the slop. Fundamentally disappointing as a
• 30:00
  Speaker 1: bears fan, but we've got to move on. Short home
• 30:04
  Speaker 1: favorites not getting any love. I don't think I want
• 30:08
  Speaker 1: to bet the Texas here, though. It feels like we've
• 30:10
  Speaker 1: lost the value. Yeah, I would say if you can
• 30:13
  Speaker 1: stick at the three, I would take it, just because
• 30:15
  Speaker 1: I honestly have a lot more confidence in Davis Mills
• 30:18
  Speaker 1: then right now than I'm doing justin fields. He he
• 30:20
  Speaker 1: had guys open and he was not making the reads
• 30:22
  Speaker 1: he needed to make. Against the packers, like he had
• 30:24
  Speaker 1: opportunities and he was missing them. Obviously, rest and help either. Right.
• 30:27
  Speaker 1: We've all seen the clip. He clearly crossed the goal
• 30:29
  Speaker 1: on that second touchdown. Terrible, terrible, terrible call by that refs.
• 30:33
  Speaker 1: Even replayed it and they still got it wrong. Um, bears,
• 30:37
  Speaker 1: it's just we came into there. I said the two
• 30:40
  Speaker 1: worst teams on my list for the Seahawks and the bears.
• 30:42
  Speaker 1: They both one week one. I took a ton of
• 30:45
  Speaker 1: ship and I just said that. People. Listen, this is
• 30:47
  Speaker 1: literally how it goes in football, like ugly teams are
• 30:49
  Speaker 1: gonna Win Games, like it's so hard to go. Oh
• 30:52
  Speaker 1: and sixteen, oh and seventeen. Now it just doesn't happen.
• 30:55
  Speaker 1: I felt like that bears was the ultimate trap. We
• 30:58
  Speaker 1: both kind of knew with Green Bay this week, I'm
• 31:00
  Speaker 1: kind of with you in the sense that the bears
• 31:01
  Speaker 1: you're expecting to bounce back. But man, the Texans just
• 31:04
  Speaker 1: played tough and like they hang in these games. And
• 31:07
  Speaker 1: say what you want about the colts, like the colts
• 31:08
  Speaker 1: have more talent on paper than they do. Denver hasn't
• 31:11
  Speaker 1: more talent than they do Texans, and both games they're
• 31:14
  Speaker 1: in it, like I couldn't believe me and Chad, we're
• 31:16
  Speaker 1: sweating again. Broncos, UH, knock it out, Asher and survivor
• 31:20
  Speaker 1: almost knocked this out while we picked them this year. Um.
• 31:22
  Speaker 1: So to me, Texans, I think the public will be
• 31:25
  Speaker 1: on them too, like what you're talking about. The public
• 31:27
  Speaker 1: is gonna like the Texans again too, and o a
• 31:29
  Speaker 1: t s. they're just in these games with love you Smith,
• 31:32
  Speaker 1: Revenge Game For love you Smith. Give me the plus three,
• 31:35
  Speaker 1: two and a half. Maybe I think about the bears,
• 31:38
  Speaker 1: but at plus three I'll take the Texans on that number. Well,
• 31:41
  Speaker 1: right now it's it's kind of all over the place.
• 31:43
  Speaker 1: So if you can find the plus three, you gotta
• 31:46
  Speaker 1: get it. Otherwise it's kind of you just gotta wait.
• 31:49
  Speaker 1: You gotta assume the number might go back up. UH,
• 31:52
  Speaker 1: it probably won't go back on. So if you haven't
• 31:54
  Speaker 1: gotten three, then as it goes down, because I think
• 31:58
  Speaker 1: more money come in on the Texans, you might want
• 32:01
  Speaker 1: to think about the bears. It could be one of
• 32:03
  Speaker 1: those panthers giant situation like we had where the panthers
• 32:05
  Speaker 1: were dogs and then went off his favorites. Yep, you're right.
• 32:09
  Speaker 1: Lines in Washington too. I think Washington closed minus one favorite. Yep,
• 32:14
  Speaker 1: and in both cases the home team one. All right,
• 32:17
  Speaker 1: Eagles on the road at the commander's plus six and
• 32:23
  Speaker 1: a half. Listen, I hate to say it, but if
• 32:27
  Speaker 1: there's a time to fade the fly and bet the
• 32:30
  Speaker 1: commanders not to win, but at six and a half
• 32:33
  Speaker 1: that's a big number for a home dog. It's all
• 32:35
  Speaker 1: about your comfort level. Like, how do you feel about
• 32:38
  Speaker 1: back in, Carson Wentz? It's really we talked about roulette
• 32:43
  Speaker 1: on this show. It's the definition of Roulette. You're literally
• 32:46
  Speaker 1: taking a gun, throwing a couple of bullets in IT
• 32:47
  Speaker 1: and spinning it. With Carson Wentz, you have no idea
• 32:50
  Speaker 1: the outcome. I could give you all the numbers I
• 32:52
  Speaker 1: got back, all the reasons why you gotta take Washington here.
• 32:55
  Speaker 1: I have the hardest time ever convincing anyone listening to
• 32:57
  Speaker 1: the show to do it. It's it's disc susting, but
• 33:00
  Speaker 1: I think Chad's exactly right. Like not that we're just
• 33:03
  Speaker 1: selling them blindly. The Eagles in this position. This is
• 33:06
  Speaker 1: lines inflated like it should be four and a half.
• 33:09
  Speaker 1: It's six and a half. You getting two free points.
• 33:11
  Speaker 1: You take this every time Wentz can throw the ball.
• 33:15
  Speaker 1: This is clearly a great matchup for their offense. I
• 33:18
  Speaker 1: know the Egos look like unbelievable against the Vikings. Yeah,
• 33:21
  Speaker 1: and we just talked about the Vikings at all opportunity
• 33:23
  Speaker 1: of the world. They just didn't connect in the red zone.
• 33:25
  Speaker 1: I guess WHO's one of the best teams in the
• 33:26
  Speaker 1: red zone this season. The Washington football teams. I think
• 33:29
  Speaker 1: they're hitting at a nine percent clip in the red
• 33:30
  Speaker 1: zone again, only two weeks in, but they're efficient once
• 33:34
  Speaker 1: again in the red zone. So to me Chad's right.
• 33:37
  Speaker 1: We'll take the six and a half. But it's like
• 33:39
  Speaker 1: Carson Wentz man. I just don't know I'm gonna get
• 33:41
  Speaker 1: from play to play. The Guy is truly a wild card.
• 33:45
  Speaker 1: It's it's so frustrating to be a carson wentz better
• 33:49
  Speaker 1: one way or the other, because we've seen him fuck
• 33:51
  Speaker 1: us in every way. Yes, many times. You know, week
• 33:55
  Speaker 1: one he fucked us against the jags by coming back.
• 33:58
  Speaker 1: In Week two he almost sucked us by our contest
• 34:02
  Speaker 1: coming back. Uh. Here's an interesting stat from Evan Abrams.
• 34:06
  Speaker 1: Jalen hurts was forty one to win the M v
• 34:09
  Speaker 1: P when the odds opened. That was a h then
• 34:14
  Speaker 1: he moved down too to one, which is about eleven.
• 34:18
  Speaker 1: He's now tend to one, tied for yeah. So again,
• 34:22
  Speaker 1: as people that love the egos coming to the season,
• 34:25
  Speaker 1: we loved all the town the biggest question was can
• 34:28
  Speaker 1: hurts read a defense and make his third the second read?
• 34:31
  Speaker 1: Like you can't just throw it to your number one receiver,
• 34:34
  Speaker 1: a J Brown, was double covered all last night. He
• 34:36
  Speaker 1: worked his tight end, he worked his third receiver, he
• 34:38
  Speaker 1: worked his second re Siver. It's like, as an Egos Ferian,
• 34:41
  Speaker 1: that could not be happier. Um, but I also know
• 34:44
  Speaker 1: it's like I don't know, not that I think it's
• 34:48
  Speaker 1: moving too quick but like Chad just talked about, like
• 34:50
  Speaker 1: Eagles winning a primetime game like that so dominantly, just
• 34:53
  Speaker 1: the hype is gonna be out of the world right now.
• 34:55
  Speaker 1: Like I can't even imagine Philadelphia Sports Talk Radio. It's
• 34:58
  Speaker 1: just all gonna be such good vibes. This is kind
• 35:00
  Speaker 1: of where you're gonna FADE THE EAGLES team. People in
• 35:03
  Speaker 1: Philly don't really know what to do with good vibes.
• 35:07
  Speaker 1: They do because the weather is nice right now. I
• 35:09
  Speaker 1: would say once it's like December, you know, when it
• 35:11
  Speaker 1: gets cold it's different. But like at the tailgates last night, man,
• 35:15
  Speaker 1: everyone's not that everyone's really cocky, but we feel like
• 35:18
  Speaker 1: we kind of owned the Vikings just because we beat
• 35:20
  Speaker 1: them on the way to our super bowl. Um, I
• 35:23
  Speaker 1: just I could not get over how happy the vibes were.
• 35:27
  Speaker 1: Chat it made me so worried about our bet I
• 35:29
  Speaker 1: was like, we are fucked, like these people are already
• 35:31
  Speaker 1: cashing these tickets. This is not the position we want
• 35:33
  Speaker 1: to be in. But the eagles are good. Six and
• 35:36
  Speaker 1: a half point favorite on the ruin against the divisional team. Good,
• 35:38
  Speaker 1: I don't think so. Would you go to the game
• 35:41
  Speaker 1: with client? Yeah, like last minute, reached it out to
• 35:44
  Speaker 1: me to go. Um, so, I tell you, with buddies
• 35:46
  Speaker 1: and I met up with him in the stadiums. I
• 35:48
  Speaker 1: don't even know if the guy listened to shot. I
• 35:49
  Speaker 1: don't care. Not The biggest fan of the guy. He's
• 35:50
  Speaker 1: a pompous Asshole, nice enough to invite me to a game. Um,
• 35:55
  Speaker 1: while tell me about how amazing his life is. The
• 35:57
  Speaker 1: whole time when we went to the phillies game together,
• 36:03
  Speaker 1: I didn't tell you how amazing in my life was.
• 36:05
  Speaker 1: The whole time. I felt like we had a really
• 36:06
  Speaker 1: nice conversation. Now it was great. Now you're a humble
• 36:09
  Speaker 1: you're a sweetheart and you like Philadelphia because you drew
• 36:11
  Speaker 1: around a convertible and felt the city looked really beautiful
• 36:14
  Speaker 1: without realizing the city was showing up that night. Yeah,
• 36:17
  Speaker 1: that's true. The bills look that Mitchell, you want to
• 36:22
  Speaker 1: jump in here? For a second. You get anything you
• 36:23
  Speaker 1: want to say about eating wings at halftime with purple
• 36:26
  Speaker 1: gloves on. Yeah, obviously I was able to enjoy my
• 36:31
  Speaker 1: wings at halftime after the children went to bed. Slipped
• 36:34
  Speaker 1: on the late text clubs. I cannot and will not
• 36:36
  Speaker 1: deal with saucy nails. I had a great time. I
• 36:40
  Speaker 1: hate the titans have for twenty three years since the
• 36:43
  Speaker 1: music city miracle. Seeing them unhappy was such a delight.
• 36:47
  Speaker 1: Steve Levy just absolutely grave dancing with some of his calls,
• 36:51
  Speaker 1: talking about how the children of Orchard Park got out
• 36:55
  Speaker 1: of school early, but they got to bed early too
• 36:57
  Speaker 1: as they signed off, was fantastic stick and I know
• 37:00
  Speaker 1: a lot of people are sick of hearing the built
• 37:03
  Speaker 1: shout song. They made that pretty clear. That's why I
• 37:06
  Speaker 1: made uh the new Josh Allen Alarm as a response
• 37:10
  Speaker 1: to some of Simon Hunters but I would consider unwarranted
• 37:13
  Speaker 1: criticism of western New York's greatest natural resource. So I
• 37:17
  Speaker 1: will play that alarm right now and I will play
• 37:21
  Speaker 1: it every time the bills win and cover, until we're
• 37:23
  Speaker 1: left with no listeners at all. Alert here for Josh Allen,
• 37:30
  Speaker 1: looking for he's he's alarms, he's a football player through
• 37:37
  Speaker 1: and through. Its R and there you go, John, excuse me, putsdown.
• 37:44
  Speaker 1: How many quarterbacks have you ever seen? ARDLE? Anyone good?
• 37:48
  Speaker 1: There's no feeling, no way demands to do something about this. All,
• 38:18
  Speaker 1: all right, we'll listen. The bills were unbelievable last night.
• 38:22
  Speaker 1: The Way Josh Allen can throw the ball. It's just
• 38:25
  Speaker 1: something to behold. There's there's a level of comfort and
• 38:28
  Speaker 1: confidence where every time he throws it you're just in
• 38:32
  Speaker 1: wonder where it's gonna end up and you can't stop
• 38:35
  Speaker 1: saying wow, I love it, except I don't know if
• 38:39
  Speaker 1: I love them going on the road and being six
• 38:40
  Speaker 1: and a half point favorites against the Miami Dolphins. Yeah,
• 38:45
  Speaker 1: and I think exactly what Matt's talking about is just
• 38:48
  Speaker 1: the bills fans think we don't love the bills. Me
• 38:50
  Speaker 1: and Chad both said WHO's who we greater? Is Our
• 38:53
  Speaker 1: best quarterback and football coming to this year? Josh Owen.
• 38:55
  Speaker 1: We're both Patrick homes. I might have said Patrick homes,
• 38:58
  Speaker 1: but I said Josh Allen. So again, I love the guy.
• 39:01
  Speaker 1: I said I thought he was bigger superstar in the
• 39:03
  Speaker 1: Buffalo American eyes and O J Simpson probably was a
• 39:07
  Speaker 1: little earlier on that, but I still think he's like
• 39:09
  Speaker 1: the next big man because it's just in the football aspect.
• 39:12
  Speaker 1: He's just really likable and an incredible player. I think
• 39:15
  Speaker 1: was the first time they punted last night was like
• 39:17
  Speaker 1: midway through the third quarter. Um, he might have been
• 39:20
  Speaker 1: out of the game by then. I don't even know
• 39:21
  Speaker 1: because he was so good. I just I feel like
• 39:25
  Speaker 1: not that I got hate for Josh Allen. My whole
• 39:27
  Speaker 1: knock on him. The reason I was so much highing
• 39:29
  Speaker 1: the chief is the chiefs. Josh is Oh and two
• 39:32
  Speaker 1: in the playoffs against the chiefs. He's three and three
• 39:34
  Speaker 1: in the playoffs for his career. Nothing against him, it's
• 39:36
  Speaker 1: just basic stats. It's like Peyton manning took a long
• 39:40
  Speaker 1: time to get over that Tom Brady Hill. It took
• 39:42
  Speaker 1: a long time. Little things kept happy and they kept
• 39:45
  Speaker 1: losing in those battles. So to me, yeah, I'm excited.
• 39:48
  Speaker 1: I love everything I've seen from the bills. I think
• 39:51
  Speaker 1: we talked about coming of the year. They have to
• 39:52
  Speaker 1: get that one seed. Like just watching them at home,
• 39:55
  Speaker 1: Josh Allen is just a different beast at home and
• 39:58
  Speaker 1: their defense is different at home. So that that is unbelievable.
• 40:02
  Speaker 1: Now we have to make a decision. Chat, where you
• 40:04
  Speaker 1: get Miami coming off one of the craziest wins of
• 40:07
  Speaker 1: their entire lives at home against the bills. Who you
• 40:11
  Speaker 1: could say that was a big win for the bills.
• 40:12
  Speaker 1: It was like to me, that's just another night. To
• 40:14
  Speaker 1: Josh Allen, like that's nothing to him. We're two on
• 40:17
  Speaker 1: this Miami team nuts and everything went to them right
• 40:19
  Speaker 1: this ravens, that's the tone center for the season historically.
• 40:23
  Speaker 1: I think he's owing three now to against the bills
• 40:27
  Speaker 1: every time Josh Allen plays the bills. I mean Matt
• 40:29
  Speaker 1: Mitchell can speak to it. Am I wrong here? Matt is,
• 40:31
  Speaker 1: he just dominated them his whole early career. That's correct.
• 40:35
  Speaker 1: Bills fans hate Miami and Josh is dominant of that franchise.
• 40:40
  Speaker 1: Is a key component to why we love him so
• 40:43
  Speaker 1: so faithfully. So what do you want to do here? Chat,
• 40:46
  Speaker 1: because this screams over sharp trap that we're walking into.
• 40:49
  Speaker 1: But nine at times times I'm betting this number. It's
• 40:52
  Speaker 1: a divisional dog at home. The bills are coming down
• 40:55
  Speaker 1: to that hot, humid weather. We know they're gonna be
• 40:58
  Speaker 1: in the sideline with all the sun on them. This
• 41:00
  Speaker 1: is when we go against the bills. But it's like
• 41:02
  Speaker 1: this is a firepower game. Literally, Lamar, he's great. Josh
• 41:06
  Speaker 1: Allen is the better version of Lamar. You can run
• 41:09
  Speaker 1: and throw it better than Lamar. We just saw Lamar
• 41:11
  Speaker 1: did this Miami defense. It feels like we don't have
• 41:14
  Speaker 1: a choice here, but it's like, can I just take
• 41:16
  Speaker 1: the over and just be happy there? Do I have
• 41:19
  Speaker 1: to take Miami because it just feels like we have to, like,
• 41:21
  Speaker 1: I don't know how we don't take Miami in this position,
• 41:24
  Speaker 1: we're violating all of our principles if we don't take
• 41:27
  Speaker 1: this bit of a home dog. Then the team that
• 41:30
  Speaker 1: they're playing against is the number one public team in
• 41:35
  Speaker 1: the NFL right now. Totally. You were automatically getting at
• 41:42
  Speaker 1: least two points of value betting against this team every time.
• 41:45
  Speaker 1: But it might not matter. Look, that's what I mean.
• 41:48
  Speaker 1: Like you have to say to yourself, historically, Josh Allen,
• 41:51
  Speaker 1: you can look at the record as a favorite, we're
• 41:54
  Speaker 1: better off just taking Miami's money line because if he doesn't,
• 41:56
  Speaker 1: he doesn't cover. He Kills Teams Josh Allen in these positions. So,
• 41:59
  Speaker 1: like that's the hardest part. It's like we're literally going
• 42:01
  Speaker 1: against the guy that kind of breaks the rules. He's
• 42:04
  Speaker 1: that dominant right now in football. Uh. Here's two great
• 42:08
  Speaker 1: stats from Evan Abrams that actually you might want to
• 42:11
  Speaker 1: cover your ears for one of them. Through two games,
• 42:14
  Speaker 1: the bills are beating their opponents by twenty seven and
• 42:16
  Speaker 1: a half points per game, covering by twenty two points
• 42:19
  Speaker 1: per game. In the last twenty years, only four other
• 42:25
  Speaker 1: teams have won and covered by twenty plus points per
• 42:29
  Speaker 1: game through two games. Two Thousand Nineteen Patriots, Detroit Lions,
• 42:35
  Speaker 1: two thousand six San Diego chargers, two thousand six Chicago bears,
• 42:39
  Speaker 1: who went to the Super Bowl. By the way, none
• 42:43
  Speaker 1: of those four teams covered in week three at least.
• 42:46
  Speaker 1: That like doesn't influence us at all for betting, other
• 42:49
  Speaker 1: than it tells you the line gets inflated by week
• 42:53
  Speaker 1: three when teams are this dominant. Here's another one. The
• 42:56
  Speaker 1: bills are the nineteen ninth team in the Super Bowl
• 42:59
  Speaker 1: era with a scoring margin of plus sixty or better
• 43:03
  Speaker 1: through two games. None of the previous eight reached the
• 43:09
  Speaker 1: Super Bowl, and that's what sucks. It's like the public
• 43:14
  Speaker 1: the books make a killing of public favorite darling teams
• 43:17
  Speaker 1: that haven't done it before. It's like, I love everything
• 43:21
  Speaker 1: I've seen from them. It's just historically it does not
• 43:24
  Speaker 1: work out for the bill is like in these positions.
• 43:26
  Speaker 1: So that that's crazy number. Again. Another thing I haven't
• 43:29
  Speaker 1: sent to me that I loved that we talked division
• 43:32
  Speaker 1: dogs all year. There are four and one to start
• 43:34
  Speaker 1: the year. Home divisional dogs are four and one. The
• 43:36
  Speaker 1: only lost me Chad's lonely saints. So it's obviously been
• 43:40
  Speaker 1: very profitable lost earlier in the season to blindly take
• 43:43
  Speaker 1: these home dogs. Oh Simon, you know what, we gotta
• 43:48
  Speaker 1: put a pin in this one. I think this is
• 43:49
  Speaker 1: on our list. It's gonna be in our big balls,
• 43:51
  Speaker 1: but I already know it. It's just I'm trying to
• 43:53
  Speaker 1: fight it here on a Tuesday because every ounce of
• 43:55
  Speaker 1: my body like I just watched the tape on the
• 43:56
  Speaker 1: bills before he came on. It's unreal. He is UN
• 44:00
  Speaker 1: it would be like third and nine and ten. You
• 44:02
  Speaker 1: knew he was gonna throw for a first down or
• 44:04
  Speaker 1: he's gonna run for a first down. Like that fourth
• 44:06
  Speaker 1: that fourth down touchdown the digs. It's ridiculous. It's ridiculous
• 44:10
  Speaker 1: like it is truly ridiculous. How good is? So that's
• 44:12
  Speaker 1: what I'm just thinking in my head right now. Well, look,
• 44:15
  Speaker 1: let's let's put a pin in this one. We'll talk
• 44:18
  Speaker 1: about it on Thursday. It could end up being our
• 44:21
  Speaker 1: big balls, it could end up being on the list.
• 44:23
  Speaker 1: We still got to give people an exact decision and
• 44:26
  Speaker 1: a Simon says. So we got some room to maneuver here.
• 44:30
  Speaker 1: Putting a pin in the bills Dolphin. UH, bengals minus
• 44:34
  Speaker 1: four and a half against the jets. Uh, this line
• 44:38
  Speaker 1: has moved down. I think the look aheadline on this
• 44:40
  Speaker 1: game was seven. So my theory on this again, I've
• 44:46
  Speaker 1: already bet the bengals at minus four and a half.
• 44:49
  Speaker 1: I know jets at home, home underdog, decent sized number,
• 44:54
  Speaker 1: but that's too much love for the jets, too much
• 44:57
  Speaker 1: hate for the bengals. This is a really by low,
• 45:01
  Speaker 1: sell high situation for me, in fact. In fact, exact decision.
• 45:07
  Speaker 1: Bengals minus four and a half, the choice between the
• 45:10
  Speaker 1: unthinkable and the impossible decision. Wow, I'm shocked you're taking
• 45:20
  Speaker 1: this stance just because historically you usually want to take
• 45:23
  Speaker 1: the jets in this position, because we've seen kind of
• 45:26
  Speaker 1: what the bengals are like. We talked about it all
• 45:28
  Speaker 1: last season, all the way through the postseason. They can
• 45:31
  Speaker 1: muddy the waters, they make games ugly and they would
• 45:34
  Speaker 1: win by a field goal. What has happened this season Chad?
• 45:38
  Speaker 1: Their last three games they've played right, including the Super Bowl.
• 45:41
  Speaker 1: In the first two this year they've lost by a
• 45:43
  Speaker 1: field goal. So a team that was due for regression
• 45:47
  Speaker 1: has now had the regression. So I'm a little worried
• 45:50
  Speaker 1: because we're just playing the numbers here. We're getting four
• 45:52
  Speaker 1: and a half of the dog against a team that
• 45:53
  Speaker 1: loves to win by three or lose by three. But
• 45:56
  Speaker 1: I feel like everything is said true. It's like, are
• 45:59
  Speaker 1: we gonna FADE JOE BUR own three against the spread
• 46:02
  Speaker 1: and start your own three, um, because again, this is
• 46:04
  Speaker 1: probably one of our survivor picks. This is a tough
• 46:06
  Speaker 1: week for survivor. then either them or Minnesota. In my opinion,
• 46:09
  Speaker 1: there were the two best spots. But man, that's that's crazy.
• 46:13
  Speaker 1: You just went right in on a road favorite. You've
• 46:16
  Speaker 1: been killing it with home dogs in your exact pick.
• 46:19
  Speaker 1: I'm shocked at this. This I don't even know how
• 46:21
  Speaker 1: to call it a true turn by Chad. It is
• 46:25
  Speaker 1: by and low, though, on the bengals or or, by
• 46:28
  Speaker 1: the way, I just made a sharp right turn into Squaresville.
• 46:35
  Speaker 1: That's what stuff picking this on a Tuesday, though. It's like,
• 46:38
  Speaker 1: I kind of get what you're coming from, but I
• 46:39
  Speaker 1: can see the public being with you. I kind of
• 46:41
  Speaker 1: get what you're saying here. It's just scared where. The
• 46:43
  Speaker 1: bengals have just keep showing US exactly what they are,
• 46:46
  Speaker 1: a team that just wins and grinds games by three.
• 46:49
  Speaker 1: I think this is their make or break game, I
• 46:51
  Speaker 1: really do. They're owing to Joe Burrow, has now had
• 46:55
  Speaker 1: two games. Remember, he's had to play himself into shape
• 46:57
  Speaker 1: a little bit because he didn't get a full training camp.
• 47:01
  Speaker 1: The jets don't have the same pass rush that the
• 47:05
  Speaker 1: bengals faced in the steelers and that they faced in
• 47:07
  Speaker 1: the cowboys. Um, this is a good, get healthy spot
• 47:11
  Speaker 1: for the bengals and, like, I know, it goes against
• 47:14
  Speaker 1: everything I believe in betting against the home dog, but
• 47:18
  Speaker 1: I am. I am putting more faith in the number
• 47:23
  Speaker 1: moving and the public perception than I am in the
• 47:27
  Speaker 1: home dog. That's fair. Again, I'm just a little word.
• 47:30
  Speaker 1: You're underrating the jets team. Okay, I don't want to
• 47:32
  Speaker 1: overrate them, because I know what we're talking about. They're
• 47:34
  Speaker 1: literally down by fourteen and they should have lost to
• 47:37
  Speaker 1: the browns of Nick Chubbs just filling the ball. But man,
• 47:41
  Speaker 1: it's it's crazy. This kid Wilson, the receiver for the
• 47:44
  Speaker 1: jets right now. He is he's something special. That Kudata,
• 47:47
  Speaker 1: Ohio State. What are you afraid of? Robert Salo, like
• 47:52
  Speaker 1: he's I'm not keeping not at all. I honestly just
• 47:55
  Speaker 1: scared to Zach Taylor. It's like I've seen so many
• 47:57
  Speaker 1: clips now, even that bikes game or the cow his game.
• 48:00
  Speaker 1: Joe Burrow is like give me help, like give me
• 48:03
  Speaker 1: some of the chip block. Michael Parsons and Zach Taylor
• 48:06
  Speaker 1: didn't do it again, Joe Burrow, I'd be so terrified
• 48:09
  Speaker 1: as a Branglos Fan, like this guy is about the
• 48:11
  Speaker 1: pull of David Carr on you like he's gonna be
• 48:13
  Speaker 1: out of the League in five years because his body
• 48:15
  Speaker 1: is gonna break down. No, no, players haven't sacked more
• 48:17
  Speaker 1: in the history of football to start their career than
• 48:21
  Speaker 1: Joe Burrow. And he's missed time. He's still outpacing every
• 48:24
  Speaker 1: other quarterback. It's it's truly terrified. As a fan of
• 48:27
  Speaker 1: Joe and a coworker of Joe Burrows, I think he
• 48:33
  Speaker 1: shows up this week for Colin show. He's a pro.
• 48:38
  Speaker 1: He's Joe the pro. Uh. The raiders. All right, well,
• 48:42
  Speaker 1: that's interesting. You still gotta give us a sign and
• 48:44
  Speaker 1: says the raiders h two point favorites on the road
• 48:48
  Speaker 1: of Tennessee. Come on, come on. The Autumn win is
• 48:55
  Speaker 1: a raider pillaging just for fun. I don't know what
• 48:59
  Speaker 1: to do. Every bounce of my biases take Tennessee, but
• 49:03
  Speaker 1: the raiders actually have a good talent on offense. Like
• 49:06
  Speaker 1: I don't know what Tennessee's identity is like. Even Derrick
• 49:10
  Speaker 1: Henry looks old and broken right, like, yeah, he looked,
• 49:13
  Speaker 1: didn't is it amazing how there were there were plays
• 49:16
  Speaker 1: last night where a year ago it would have been
• 49:19
  Speaker 1: Derrick Henry for fifty breaking four tackles and he was
• 49:22
  Speaker 1: getting there was nothing intimidating about tackling Derrick Henry. You
• 49:27
  Speaker 1: get any defensive back or linebacker WHO's coming up playing
• 49:30
  Speaker 1: the titans and you'll get some you know media person
• 49:35
  Speaker 1: who can't think of a better question than was Ada,
• 49:37
  Speaker 1: Dear Henry, and last night I doing a little very hard. Yeah,
• 49:43
  Speaker 1: I would say even if you checked out the fantasy
• 49:45
  Speaker 1: show this summer, they're kind of on it right that
• 49:47
  Speaker 1: the running back after Um, I know Sean Corner was
• 49:52
  Speaker 1: definitely on it. Talking about this, historical data backs up.
• 49:55
  Speaker 1: There's a cliff. These guys fall off after hitting that number.
• 49:58
  Speaker 1: Twenty seven. kind of see and out Derek like. I
• 50:00
  Speaker 1: don't want to doubt him because it's it's King Henry
• 50:03
  Speaker 1: and this guy always puts up the numbers, but something's
• 50:06
  Speaker 1: wrong clear with that Tennessee offense. Um, they look a
• 50:08
  Speaker 1: little broken right now. So I don't know what to do.
• 50:11
  Speaker 1: chaving this one. I'd probably passed on it right now,
• 50:13
  Speaker 1: but I, let's say, my instincts want me to take
• 50:15
  Speaker 1: the raiders, but I just feel so freaking piste off
• 50:19
  Speaker 1: about them and I just don't know if their head
• 50:22
  Speaker 1: coach is good. Like mcdanields might be a freaking idiot.
• 50:25
  Speaker 1: Like again, there's a reason he failed in Denver starting
• 50:29
  Speaker 1: his career. And two straight up and two against the
• 50:31
  Speaker 1: spread with the raiders. I don't know, it's not getting
• 50:33
  Speaker 1: too much to want to back here. gave the game away.
• 50:36
  Speaker 1: gave it w away at home had to be excruciating
• 50:40
  Speaker 1: to watch that from the sideline, because it was as
• 50:42
  Speaker 1: cruciating to watch it from my fucking couch. Yeah, Jaguars
• 50:47
  Speaker 1: on the road at the Los Angeles chargers. They are
• 50:51
  Speaker 1: seven point underdogs right now. This is our pro Joe
• 50:55
  Speaker 1: Game of the week. Of the bets on the chargers
• 50:59
  Speaker 1: at seven point. If it's eight, two percent of the
• 51:02
  Speaker 1: money coming in on the JAG wires. That might be me.
• 51:07
  Speaker 1: I might be walking ready to do it here, but
• 51:09
  Speaker 1: it's like you're giving me a banged up Herbert. He's
• 51:12
  Speaker 1: tough as ship. I know he's gonna play in this
• 51:14
  Speaker 1: game and if he's not, even better. I already locked
• 51:17
  Speaker 1: up a jags plus seven. Just grab it, just grab
• 51:21
  Speaker 1: this number. Ride with the ride with the other pros. Again,
• 51:24
  Speaker 1: nothing against the chargers. I think on paper they're much
• 51:27
  Speaker 1: more talented team. The Jaguars are sending at the perfect
• 51:31
  Speaker 1: time right now. To me, their offense just looked like
• 51:33
  Speaker 1: it was clicking it every way and their defense looks
• 51:35
  Speaker 1: really good, like they've made moves on defense that I've
• 51:39
  Speaker 1: really panned out. I mean they're again their first round
• 51:41
  Speaker 1: pick from this year looks great and Josh Allen still
• 51:43
  Speaker 1: the other on the other side at the end. It's
• 51:45
  Speaker 1: like people forget how dominant at the end and pass
• 51:47
  Speaker 1: rusher he is as well. So to me I love
• 51:50
  Speaker 1: this number. Plus seven. I already knew me and she
• 51:52
  Speaker 1: were probably gonna have this one because we both love
• 51:54
  Speaker 1: the jags. Um The fact that Herbert's banged up just
• 51:58
  Speaker 1: gives even more of a reason to take the Jaguars here, right.
• 52:01
  Speaker 1: We know he's gonna get roughed up a little bit.
• 52:03
  Speaker 1: He's gonna be feeling it. To me, you're taking a
• 52:06
  Speaker 1: bang up quarterback at minus seven that they have to have,
• 52:09
  Speaker 1: you know, much more going on than what the chargers do.
• 52:12
  Speaker 1: The chargers team. They haven't covered. They haven't earned that seven.
• 52:15
  Speaker 1: To me, like right, this is more the public being
• 52:17
  Speaker 1: like coming to the year the Jaguars will look down
• 52:20
  Speaker 1: on charger. Were supposed to be a super bowl favorite.
• 52:23
  Speaker 1: I don't really see it that way. I see these
• 52:24
  Speaker 1: two evenly match teams. So to me, as long as
• 52:27
  Speaker 1: it's about four and a half, which is why I
• 52:28
  Speaker 1: have this number at I would take it down to
• 52:30
  Speaker 1: that number. Alright. So is this a a Simon says moment? No,
• 52:36
  Speaker 1: I got that coming up, because this one feels like, honestly,
• 52:38
  Speaker 1: the public will be easy to bet on, like people
• 52:39
  Speaker 1: are gonna want to bet this Jack's team. So this
• 52:41
  Speaker 1: is not like again I, like Simon says, to be
• 52:43
  Speaker 1: a game that no one really wants to bet. All right. Well,
• 52:46
  Speaker 1: for the record, while you were talking, I went into
• 52:50
  Speaker 1: Fandel and I played the Jaguars at plus seven. I
• 52:54
  Speaker 1: gotta do it and I have now tracked that in
• 52:58
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  Speaker 1: net in West Virginia. All right, packers on the road
• 54:53
  Speaker 1: of the buccaneers. This is an interesting one. This is
• 54:57
  Speaker 1: an interesting game, my friend, packers plus two and a
• 55:01
  Speaker 1: half of the bucks. The bucks might be the worst
• 55:06
  Speaker 1: looking to an old team in the NFL right now.
• 55:09
  Speaker 1: How dare you? And Look. They've just been terrible in
• 55:13
  Speaker 1: both of their games. The packers did exactly what we
• 55:16
  Speaker 1: thought they would do in years past when the packers
• 55:20
  Speaker 1: have played the bucks. This is when Aaron Rodgers gets
• 55:23
  Speaker 1: most confused, most frustrated and most angry. Minus two Simon says,
• 55:30
  Speaker 1: bet the bucks do it first bet I made when
• 55:38
  Speaker 1: I woke up, before I go in and watch that
• 55:40
  Speaker 1: Queen get putting the ground sucking years. Minus two and
• 55:43
  Speaker 1: a half loved it. Jumped out on me right away
• 55:46
  Speaker 1: where it's like people don't really get what this bucks
• 55:49
  Speaker 1: team is. A great, great defense. This is gonna be
• 55:52
  Speaker 1: the best defense that our guy at rodgers ever played
• 55:56
  Speaker 1: against this bucks team, and we're already seen what he's
• 55:57
  Speaker 1: done against those other defenses. He floundered, especially against the
• 56:01
  Speaker 1: bucks in Florida. Love this position again. They've changed their
• 56:05
  Speaker 1: identity Tampa. To me he's just kind of survived these
• 56:09
  Speaker 1: injuries brady. They're bringing in guys off the street like
• 56:11
  Speaker 1: Cole Beasley, adding weapons. It kind of shows that Brady
• 56:14
  Speaker 1: he just wants guys in there and he kind of
• 56:16
  Speaker 1: just wants this guy drunk back and kind of saw
• 56:18
  Speaker 1: that in that game, like he doesn't have trust in
• 56:20
  Speaker 1: these other receivers. So I say that would maybe be
• 56:22
  Speaker 1: my pause. But I love this defensive matchup against a
• 56:24
  Speaker 1: Green Bay team that's still figure out their identity. It's like, okay,
• 56:27
  Speaker 1: all you have to do is take aways, two running
• 56:29
  Speaker 1: backs and what's Rogers Really gonna do? Again, there's a
• 56:32
  Speaker 1: couple of times against the bears where he's Wunning to
• 56:34
  Speaker 1: get a good defense. I don't think he'd be making
• 56:36
  Speaker 1: those plays Um, and this is to me, when the
• 56:38
  Speaker 1: best defense is the football a team that I was
• 56:42
  Speaker 1: in on and Chad was not in on coming into
• 56:44
  Speaker 1: the season. The fact that he thinks they're they're one
• 56:47
  Speaker 1: of the worst looking two and oh teams. When we
• 56:48
  Speaker 1: have the giants who're sitting there too and Oh, it's
• 56:51
  Speaker 1: just amazing. It's just classic chat. So I love the
• 56:55
  Speaker 1: books in this position. I think that again we're talking
• 56:58
  Speaker 1: about numbers, moving base stuff. What happened last week summer
• 57:02
  Speaker 1: was three and a half. It dropped down to two
• 57:03
  Speaker 1: and a half. Off the Mike, Emma's news and everything else.
• 57:06
  Speaker 1: That doesn't really matter. It doesn't really bother me. It's
• 57:08
  Speaker 1: like I'm back in this team here in Tampa that
• 57:11
  Speaker 1: can run the ball really well against screen bay team
• 57:13
  Speaker 1: that really can't stop the run and that it's kind
• 57:15
  Speaker 1: of become one dimensional offense. I just think you're getting
• 57:18
  Speaker 1: a great number here, especially the fact that Stampa's first
• 57:22
  Speaker 1: game at home. I love this position with Brady. The
• 57:26
  Speaker 1: reason I say they looked like one of the worst
• 57:28
  Speaker 1: two and oh teams is because there's been no joy
• 57:31
  Speaker 1: in this team. And and honestly, the giants, while they're
• 57:35
  Speaker 1: not very good, they're joyful. The bucks just look like
• 57:39
  Speaker 1: they're completely lacking any joy. Yeah, I mean Brady, you
• 57:43
  Speaker 1: can just tell he's going through some ship. Like anytime
• 57:45
  Speaker 1: you see a forty five year old man screaming at
• 57:48
  Speaker 1: some twenty year old, it just looks weird. It just
• 57:51
  Speaker 1: looks weird. So I'm with you. Like Brady, it felt
• 57:55
  Speaker 1: like he was having a mini temper temper tantrum on
• 57:57
  Speaker 1: the field, like every other play, because this as were
• 58:00
  Speaker 1: just beating the crap out of them, but I just
• 58:03
  Speaker 1: I love them in this position. So I understand where
• 58:06
  Speaker 1: you're coming from. Them looking not that fun, but it's
• 58:10
  Speaker 1: just it's just kind of the Brady level of like
• 58:12
  Speaker 1: Super Bowl or bust, and I do believe in them.
• 58:15
  Speaker 1: Falcons on the road, two point underdogs against the Seattle seahawks.
• 58:22
  Speaker 1: What the Hell am I gonna do here, Chad? You
• 58:24
  Speaker 1: already know we want to bet Atlanta like a great
• 58:26
  Speaker 1: running team against a bad run defense in Seattle with
• 58:29
  Speaker 1: Geno Smith the quarterback that could not do a single thing,
• 58:32
  Speaker 1: but we're buying high in Atlanta right now. Yeah, so
• 58:36
  Speaker 1: I don't know what to do with this one. Like
• 58:37
  Speaker 1: I really wanted to grab it. It was, I think,
• 58:39
  Speaker 1: three interesting is back up. That means some pro money
• 58:42
  Speaker 1: must came in on the Seahawks, because to me I
• 58:45
  Speaker 1: don't see any public betting seahawks. It's gonna be probably
• 58:49
  Speaker 1: a pros versus shows game. I see the pros probably
• 58:51
  Speaker 1: back in the sea seahawks at home and the public
• 58:54
  Speaker 1: taking uh, Atlanta. I'm I'm torn here because I like Atlanta.
• 58:59
  Speaker 1: I just love they're all offense. I love their run
• 59:01
  Speaker 1: scheme and I think they have more playmakers on defense
• 59:03
  Speaker 1: and the SEAHAWKS team does. So this is the rare
• 59:06
  Speaker 1: time I'll be with the public, but I can't be
• 59:08
  Speaker 1: talked out of I'll be on Atlanta in this game.
• 59:12
  Speaker 1: I have different feelings about Atlanta than you do. I
• 59:14
  Speaker 1: don't think Arthur Smith right now is a good enough
• 59:17
  Speaker 1: coach to win these Games, and we're essentially saying it
• 59:22
  Speaker 1: a number this short. I like that. I like the
• 59:24
  Speaker 1: Falcons is big dogs. A number this short, we're essentially saying, hey,
• 59:28
  Speaker 1: Marcus Mariotta, Arthur Smith, go on the road to Seattle
• 59:33
  Speaker 1: in a game at that where they're going to feel
• 59:37
  Speaker 1: desperate and try to beat the seahawks. Don't. Doesn't phaze me.
• 59:43
  Speaker 1: I just think it's see how sucks. I really do
• 59:45
  Speaker 1: like that's why I was so big on the point
• 59:47
  Speaker 1: Ander's last week. I wish I didn't buckle on that.
• 59:50
  Speaker 1: It was just like this team is not good. They
• 59:53
  Speaker 1: got so many good breaks and bounces for them against
• 59:55
  Speaker 1: that Denver team, where I'm with you in Atlanta, like
• 59:59
  Speaker 1: I don't really trust art or Smith either, and he
• 1:00:00
  Speaker 1: says some stupid ship as pressors where I'm like rolling
• 1:00:03
  Speaker 1: my eyes at the Guy, but I love the run scheme.
• 1:00:07
  Speaker 1: He's running with this team like he's literally using Mariana strengths.
• 1:00:10
  Speaker 1: And I know people are losing their minds about Kyle Pitts.
• 1:00:13
  Speaker 1: It's like, what do you want Mary to do? Kyle
• 1:00:15
  Speaker 1: Pitts is getting double teams, so he's going to drake London.
• 1:00:17
  Speaker 1: It's just he's a simple quarterback and that's a simple play.
• 1:00:20
  Speaker 1: So I exactly understand where Chad's coming from. So I
• 1:00:24
  Speaker 1: know this won't be one of our five, but I'm
• 1:00:27
  Speaker 1: just having a tough time talk to myself out of
• 1:00:29
  Speaker 1: the Atlanta team. I'm sucked in. I just love their
• 1:00:31
  Speaker 1: scheme and I love this matchup for them. All right,
• 1:00:35
  Speaker 1: I could be talked into it right now. By the way,
• 1:00:37
  Speaker 1: we've got probably four games that we definitely like, then
• 1:00:41
  Speaker 1: a whole list of game we're waiting to see some
• 1:00:43
  Speaker 1: action on. I mean it is Tuesday, like there's there's
• 1:00:46
  Speaker 1: a bunch of injuries right now. It is tough to
• 1:00:48
  Speaker 1: just dive in on some of these games. Let me
• 1:00:50
  Speaker 1: ask you a question. Have you bet the commanders at
• 1:00:52
  Speaker 1: plus six and a half yet? No, because I'm open
• 1:00:55
  Speaker 1: a seven. Like I I was hoping for a seven
• 1:00:57
  Speaker 1: just because of I woke up the this morning. That
• 1:01:00
  Speaker 1: was the first thing I checked after the eagles one
• 1:01:03
  Speaker 1: and it's just not there. So maybe the pros did
• 1:01:05
  Speaker 1: bet it when it got to seven. I just haven't
• 1:01:06
  Speaker 1: seen a seven yet. Um. But again, I don't hate
• 1:01:09
  Speaker 1: at six and a half either, like that's good value.
• 1:01:11
  Speaker 1: It's just if I'm gonna bet a decent on the money,
• 1:01:13
  Speaker 1: I want to get the best number. Yeah, UH, rams
• 1:01:16
  Speaker 1: on the road at the cardinals. Resurgent, cardinals, comeback, cardinals.
• 1:01:22
  Speaker 1: The rams look like crap. They could have lost that game.
• 1:01:26
  Speaker 1: Three and a half point road favorites. I don't know, man,
• 1:01:30
  Speaker 1: you feel like you bet the cardinals here. Yeah, we'll
• 1:01:32
  Speaker 1: hold our nose and we'll bet it. Like again, there's, there's.
• 1:01:35
  Speaker 1: We could break this down this game, but like, I
• 1:01:37
  Speaker 1: don't really know what the breakdown is. I don't really
• 1:01:39
  Speaker 1: know what I'm getting with Kingsberry, like the guy just
• 1:01:41
  Speaker 1: looks lost and then Kyler Murray just goes video game
• 1:01:44
  Speaker 1: mode and wins Games. It's like I saw some crazy
• 1:01:47
  Speaker 1: stad he ran over eighty yards um on that two
• 1:01:50
  Speaker 1: point convergon. I love that. So don't really have it's
• 1:01:55
  Speaker 1: probably more of I don't have faith in this rams
• 1:01:57
  Speaker 1: team that they don't have a running back to really
• 1:02:00
  Speaker 1: help them milk the clock away. So getting a three
• 1:02:02
  Speaker 1: and a half point team and the cardinals, that we've
• 1:02:04
  Speaker 1: already seen, can score fast when they need to and
• 1:02:07
  Speaker 1: they can put points up in a comeback position. I'll
• 1:02:10
  Speaker 1: take the three and a half. But yeah, don't this
• 1:02:12
  Speaker 1: won't be one of our five. I just don't have
• 1:02:14
  Speaker 1: confidence in either of these teams right now. NOPE, Nope,
• 1:02:17
  Speaker 1: not at all. Forty niners visiting the broncos. This is
• 1:02:21
  Speaker 1: the Sunday night game. Well, I'll get Jimmy g against
• 1:02:26
  Speaker 1: Russell Wilson. Part of me feels like had a better
• 1:02:30
  Speaker 1: chance with Jimmy g than they do with Trade Lance.
• 1:02:33
  Speaker 1: I know what I'm getting here. Yeah, but my my
• 1:02:35
  Speaker 1: only argument against is the upsides. Cats. You know exactly
• 1:02:38
  Speaker 1: what we're getting from Jimmy where you didn't know you're
• 1:02:40
  Speaker 1: gonna get from track. Yeah, you know the ceiling right now? Yes,
• 1:02:43
  Speaker 1: and we've seen Jimmy ceiling, and his ceiling is he's
• 1:02:46
  Speaker 1: up ten in an NFC championship game and he has
• 1:02:49
  Speaker 1: back to back turn either to turnover in a three
• 1:02:51
  Speaker 1: and out or a three out then a turnover against
• 1:02:53
  Speaker 1: that rams team and he couldn't get it back. He
• 1:02:56
  Speaker 1: saw him the Super Bowl against the chiefs. You had
• 1:02:57
  Speaker 1: a lead, he gave the lead away. It's just I'm
• 1:03:00
  Speaker 1: just bummed out because I did have high hopes for
• 1:03:02
  Speaker 1: the point n and Trey Lance. It's Prout for that
• 1:03:05
  Speaker 1: fan base now like again, it's fun Jimmy's backs. At
• 1:03:08
  Speaker 1: least you have a chance this year. But it's another
• 1:03:10
  Speaker 1: year wasted on a great young talent prospect. And there's
• 1:03:14
  Speaker 1: built in excuses. Right, he's only played one game, right,
• 1:03:18
  Speaker 1: and that covid season and North Dakota came the league,
• 1:03:20
  Speaker 1: played in two games and then this year played in
• 1:03:22
  Speaker 1: a game and a half. It's just it's a nightmare
• 1:03:25
  Speaker 1: start for your rookie, your second year quarterback with Trey Lance.
• 1:03:29
  Speaker 1: So I'm with you this season. I'd be happy again
• 1:03:32
  Speaker 1: because it's like Jimmy, you know exactly where you're getting
• 1:03:34
  Speaker 1: and this team is built to win right now, but
• 1:03:36
  Speaker 1: just thinks where. It's like exciting upside of the four team.
• 1:03:39
  Speaker 1: So I don't know. Looking at this matchup, I loved
• 1:03:44
  Speaker 1: like everyone else, I love the four and ninners. I
• 1:03:45
  Speaker 1: think Nathaniel Hackett, holy sh it, man, like this is
• 1:03:49
  Speaker 1: why I can never be a GM r owner. He
• 1:03:51
  Speaker 1: would have been fired as soon as that game was over.
• 1:03:54
  Speaker 1: I would not have let him back in the locker room.
• 1:03:55
  Speaker 1: I literally would have went on down the field and
• 1:03:57
  Speaker 1: fired him and just being like, I'm sure you're great offensively,
• 1:04:00
  Speaker 1: you don't know how to manage clock, you're not how
• 1:04:02
  Speaker 1: to manage your time outs and you're not now to
• 1:04:04
  Speaker 1: manage the red zone. They have not scored a red
• 1:04:06
  Speaker 1: Joe in touchdown yet the broncos and they played Seattle
• 1:04:10
  Speaker 1: and Houston. Holy Sh it. So yeah, this guy might
• 1:04:14
  Speaker 1: make leaps and bounds this week and I'll feel like
• 1:04:16
  Speaker 1: a genius back in this Denver team in this position.
• 1:04:18
  Speaker 1: But it's like no logical reason other than I think
• 1:04:22
  Speaker 1: I'm getting a good number on Denver as a home
• 1:04:24
  Speaker 1: dog in this position. But if you're betting the forty nine,
• 1:04:28
  Speaker 1: I think that's probably a good bet too. It's just
• 1:04:29
  Speaker 1: like there's no real field to this game because again,
• 1:04:32
  Speaker 1: I was already down on Russell Wilson coming into this year.
• 1:04:35
  Speaker 1: Now that I've watched his head coach in two games
• 1:04:38
  Speaker 1: just an absolute train wreck, like this Denver team might
• 1:04:40
  Speaker 1: be worse than I thought. So I don't know what
• 1:04:43
  Speaker 1: the hell to do with it. Like every ounce of
• 1:04:44
  Speaker 1: my body is like, just take the home team in
• 1:04:46
  Speaker 1: a primetime game here. But I get it. If you're
• 1:04:49
  Speaker 1: getting under three with a better team, the forty niners,
• 1:04:52
  Speaker 1: I really can't knock it. If that's what you want
• 1:04:53
  Speaker 1: to go chat. I don't want. I don't want to
• 1:04:55
  Speaker 1: touch this game. You know what I want to do
• 1:04:57
  Speaker 1: with this game? I want to go to sleep at
• 1:04:59
  Speaker 1: eight thirty. You can bet the under, then just bet
• 1:05:02
  Speaker 1: the under and go to sleep. Cowboys on the road
• 1:05:18
  Speaker 1: at the giants. Two and no. Giants looking like one
• 1:05:20
  Speaker 1: of the best two and no teams in the NFL.
• 1:05:22
  Speaker 1: Cowboys led by Cooper rush and a defense that is spirited.
• 1:05:26
  Speaker 1: Two and a half point dogs. Dallas cowboys. Number moved.
• 1:05:30
  Speaker 1: Was it four? Oh, real, and it's crazy to coming
• 1:05:34
  Speaker 1: into this week right now. The unders in prime time
• 1:05:36
  Speaker 1: or six and one, and I'm on three. Another three
• 1:05:39
  Speaker 1: unders in prime time. Like I liked under in this
• 1:05:41
  Speaker 1: game too. I like the under in Sunday night. I
• 1:05:43
  Speaker 1: like the under on Thursday's man. Hopefully I don't get
• 1:05:47
  Speaker 1: caught because the unders have been going to us, but
• 1:05:48
  Speaker 1: this just lines up as such bad offenses, all these
• 1:05:52
  Speaker 1: teams where the defenses are the strongest unit, like the
• 1:05:55
  Speaker 1: Giants Defensive Front. UH, looked really against Baker, like they
• 1:05:59
  Speaker 1: put him in a lot of pressure spots. Michael Parsons,
• 1:06:02
  Speaker 1: I mean I can say this now not feel like
• 1:06:04
  Speaker 1: a complete idiot. He's gotta be the Best Yend we've
• 1:06:06
  Speaker 1: seen since LD like Lawrence Taylor. We've never seen anyone
• 1:06:10
  Speaker 1: like Lawrence Taylor until, I think, Michael Parsons, like the
• 1:06:12
  Speaker 1: stuff he does weekly. Teams looked a game playing around
• 1:06:15
  Speaker 1: him now because they know this is his second year.
• 1:06:18
  Speaker 1: Guy Does Not stop man like just through two weeks.
• 1:06:21
  Speaker 1: It's unbelievable. So I kind of like New York here,
• 1:06:25
  Speaker 1: Fading Cooper rush off a win. Um. You can get
• 1:06:28
  Speaker 1: two and a half at certain books. It's a great number. Again.
• 1:06:31
  Speaker 1: Opened up four down to two and a half. Now
• 1:06:33
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna home team that everyone feels like me and
• 1:06:35
  Speaker 1: each other, just like you know. The giants are the
• 1:06:38
  Speaker 1: fraudist too. And Oh, Daniel Jones is making these plays
• 1:06:41
  Speaker 1: like that. Literally, a third down he made this crazy
• 1:06:44
  Speaker 1: run cut up the field to get them to ice
• 1:06:47
  Speaker 1: to clock. I'm looking for. That was kind of place
• 1:06:49
  Speaker 1: like that is A. All right, this Gud has some Moxie.
• 1:06:52
  Speaker 1: We're last year I don't think they scored even a
• 1:06:55
  Speaker 1: field goal in the final two minutes. Like it's just
• 1:06:57
  Speaker 1: a total flip this year where they're actually small and
• 1:07:00
  Speaker 1: maybe can manage at the end of the game, but
• 1:07:02
  Speaker 1: they didn't had that last year. So I guess this
• 1:07:05
  Speaker 1: is more of a fade on the cowboys, coming off
• 1:07:07
  Speaker 1: the big win with Cooper Russia quarterback, now going on
• 1:07:09
  Speaker 1: the road. Um, but it's honestly, I just have more
• 1:07:12
  Speaker 1: faith in this giants team right now. Um, where the
• 1:07:16
  Speaker 1: cowboys again? That was a great win against the bengals.
• 1:07:19
  Speaker 1: I think that was more about the bengals kind of
• 1:07:21
  Speaker 1: losing that game than the cowboys. Where in this position here.
• 1:07:24
  Speaker 1: I just think the cowboys defense is really gonna shut
• 1:07:26
  Speaker 1: down this, I mean I should say giants defense will
• 1:07:28
  Speaker 1: shut down this cowboys offense. Yeah, UH, right now we're
• 1:07:36
  Speaker 1: looking at the paths, plus three colts, plus seven bikes,
• 1:07:41
  Speaker 1: minus six bucks, minus two. I think those are the
• 1:07:45
  Speaker 1: four we felt most confident about. The only one that's
• 1:07:50
  Speaker 1: a question mark is pending an injury assessment for the colts,
• 1:07:55
  Speaker 1: but we will examine on Thursday. Basically, every their game.
• 1:08:00
  Speaker 1: Panthers plus three, commanders, plus six, uh and a half,
• 1:08:04
  Speaker 1: dolphins plus six and a half, Jacks plus seven. Uh.
• 1:08:07
  Speaker 1: Why wouldn't we put the jags on our list right now?
• 1:08:10
  Speaker 1: I don't hate it again because, like the Patriots one again,
• 1:08:13
  Speaker 1: it's not just a trend play. But belichick is a
• 1:08:16
  Speaker 1: home dog. I think he's like fifteen and four, fifteen
• 1:08:18
  Speaker 1: and five as a home dog in this position. So
• 1:08:20
  Speaker 1: it's like there's a bunch of little things we'll have
• 1:08:22
  Speaker 1: on Thursday. That's we'll just reaffirm our positions. But yeah,
• 1:08:26
  Speaker 1: right now I would not mind having the Jackson is
• 1:08:28
  Speaker 1: our fifth one. I just love that number at seven. Yeah,
• 1:08:30
  Speaker 1: Jack's plus seven, and then Falcons plus two, cards, plus four, giants,
• 1:08:34
  Speaker 1: minus two and a half. Look, none of them are ugly.
• 1:08:37
  Speaker 1: None of them speak to me the way that the
• 1:08:41
  Speaker 1: game's last week spoke to me. The foxhold is the
• 1:08:44
  Speaker 1: VIKES minus six. The exact decision is bengals minus four
• 1:08:49
  Speaker 1: and a half and the Simon says, is bucks minus two. Yeah,
• 1:08:53
  Speaker 1: I would say our grossest play, especially if you, if
• 1:08:56
  Speaker 1: you love betting these like again, if you bet the
• 1:08:58
  Speaker 1: jets with us last week, you took the alboys with us.
• 1:09:01
  Speaker 1: You have to take the colts. That's just it's one
• 1:09:04
  Speaker 1: of those auto plays. But again, I want you to
• 1:09:06
  Speaker 1: get that seven because to me that's a great number.
• 1:09:08
  Speaker 1: But I think we'll revisit it. Who who do you
• 1:09:11
  Speaker 1: think are you? I mean obviously like the bengals. Is that?
• 1:09:14
  Speaker 1: Is that the move? Like we burned, we burned our
• 1:09:16
  Speaker 1: Tuesday guys with the Bengals last week. But to me
• 1:09:20
  Speaker 1: it's either the bengals are the Vikings Um, but Detroit
• 1:09:23
  Speaker 1: scares me a little bit. Where right, like the bengals
• 1:09:26
  Speaker 1: are just so desperate. How do how do they lose
• 1:09:28
  Speaker 1: this one? I think it's the bengals. I'll put that in.
• 1:09:32
  Speaker 1: Then we're talking about survivor. It doesn't feel as easy
• 1:09:36
  Speaker 1: as week one or week two right now. Oh really,
• 1:09:39
  Speaker 1: this is this felt really easy. I just I always
• 1:09:41
  Speaker 1: think back, like when we're in here a week eight,
• 1:09:43
  Speaker 1: nine and ten, especially if you come off a two
• 1:09:45
  Speaker 1: and three, one and four a week. Those are the
• 1:09:48
  Speaker 1: tough ones because I'm just, Oh man, every line looks
• 1:09:51
  Speaker 1: gross where this week. Like even when I woke up
• 1:09:53
  Speaker 1: this morning, I like immediately saw what Chad I was
• 1:09:56
  Speaker 1: talking about. That cold s number. I was like, Oh man,
• 1:09:59
  Speaker 1: me and me and chat both gonna love that cold thumber.
• 1:10:01
  Speaker 1: Oh my God, loved it, loved it. So, wait, what
• 1:10:05
  Speaker 1: bets have you made right now that are just sides?
• 1:10:08
  Speaker 1: Because I've made so far? UH, Tampa minus two, Jack
• 1:10:15
  Speaker 1: minus plus seven, Indie plus seven, Cincinnati minus four and
• 1:10:19
  Speaker 1: a half, Pittsburgh plus five and a half, then new Pittsburgh,
• 1:10:22
  Speaker 1: then do bengals. Uh that that the Patriots right when
• 1:10:25
  Speaker 1: I saw the three, and I took that giants at
• 1:10:28
  Speaker 1: minus two and a half just in case it goes
• 1:10:30
  Speaker 1: up the three. So again, early weeks like this, people
• 1:10:33
  Speaker 1: I can barely get a grand down, like it's just books.
• 1:10:36
  Speaker 1: Are just sending out fuelers Um on certain games. But
• 1:10:40
  Speaker 1: that's why I like my thirds. That can really start
• 1:10:41
  Speaker 1: figuring out my my bigger bets. Alright, Sannah, I think
• 1:10:46
  Speaker 1: we've done at all. I think we've done all we
• 1:10:48
  Speaker 1: can do here. Simon Hunter, for Simon Hunter, for Matt Mitchell,
• 1:10:53
  Speaker 1: I am Chad millman. This has been the favorites podcast.
• 1:10:57
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• 1:11:00
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• 1:11:04
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• 1:11:08
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