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The Impact Of A European Coronavirus Lockdown · Bloomberg Intelligence

0:00
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney alongside
0:04
Speaker 1: my co host Matt Miller. Every business day, we bring
0:06
Speaker 1: you interviews from CEOs, market crows, and Bloomberg experts, along
0:11
Speaker 1: with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets Podcast
0:15
Speaker 1: on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts, and
0:18
Speaker 1: at Bloomberg dot com slash podcast. Last night was that
0:22
Speaker 1: at a dinner with some friends Matt, including a young
0:24
Speaker 1: woman who just graduated from nursing school. She's gonna start
0:26
Speaker 1: her first full time job the Children's Hospital Philadelphia, which
0:30
Speaker 1: is a great, great hospital, and it just she was
0:32
Speaker 1: so enthusiastic and so passionate and committed. It just made
0:36
Speaker 1: me feel good because you think about the folks of
0:38
Speaker 1: it on our front lines of during this pandemic um
0:41
Speaker 1: and just the stress they've been put under, and you
0:44
Speaker 1: just wonder, you know, how they do it. UM. That's
0:46
Speaker 1: where we like to talk to folks that are really
0:48
Speaker 1: uh touched, you know, really tapped into that part of
0:51
Speaker 1: the healthcare system. Jennet Elkin, president and Chief executive Officer
0:55
Speaker 1: of Icon Medical Network, joins us Icon Medical found in
0:58
Speaker 1: places physicians and actitioners on assignment in hospitals and health
1:02
Speaker 1: care facilities in the US, so she really knows what's
1:05
Speaker 1: going on the front lines. Janet, thanks so much for
1:07
Speaker 1: joining us here. Again, it seems like in parts of
1:10
Speaker 1: this country and other parts around the world, we're getting
1:13
Speaker 1: another wave of COVID um cases. Here. What's it like
1:18
Speaker 1: on the front lines. It's still extraordinarily busy, as you
1:23
Speaker 1: can imagine. In addition to that, though, given that we're
1:27
Speaker 1: seeing requirements for the vaccine really go up, as you
1:30
Speaker 1: can imagine if they would do have to stop this
1:34
Speaker 1: at some point. But what's happening now is it's getting
1:37
Speaker 1: harder to place nurses who won't get the vaccine. So
1:40
Speaker 1: it's kind of closing an interesting time right now in
1:43
Speaker 1: terms of staffing these facilities. Well, I mean, do you
1:46
Speaker 1: want to place a nurse who won't get the vaccine?
1:50
Speaker 1: Do I really want a medical professional who, uh is
1:55
Speaker 1: that obtuse working on me? I don't think so. Oh,
2:00
Speaker 1: given that my dad died early from COVID even if
2:03
Speaker 1: you hadn't, yeah, you really don't. So what's happening now
2:06
Speaker 1: is that they're gravitating nurses towards those nurses towards facility
2:10
Speaker 1: and also there are a few physicians out there who
2:13
Speaker 1: won't get vaccinated, but it's becoming more difficult for them.
2:16
Speaker 1: And in a way, although that's hard for facilities, it
2:19
Speaker 1: also means that hopefully we will get more people vaccinated
2:24
Speaker 1: and be able to affect better patient care. Janet, you know,
2:27
Speaker 1: you know our views here in New York City obviously
2:29
Speaker 1: skewed for much parts of for many parts of the
2:32
Speaker 1: country talked to us about healthcare per you know, system
2:36
Speaker 1: and staffing in more rural parts of America. I know
2:40
Speaker 1: that was a challenge even before the pandemic. What's it
2:44
Speaker 1: like now it continues to be. I mean, you've got,
2:48
Speaker 1: if you think about it, not only COVID and what
2:52
Speaker 1: that's caused in terms of medium more practitioners, the fact
2:55
Speaker 1: that they didn't have enough to begin with in the
2:56
Speaker 1: rural areas, and then on top of that as fallout
2:59
Speaker 1: from OVID, and I think how it made people. We
3:01
Speaker 1: think things the great resignation. Yes, we see it in
3:05
Speaker 1: terms of nurses, physicians resigning, but some things you may
3:08
Speaker 1: not think about, or even the recruiters who work for
3:11
Speaker 1: health care facilities to place more permanent employees, they're also
3:15
Speaker 1: moving on. So Jennet. Where are we in terms of
3:19
Speaker 1: the pipeline? Again, last night I had dinner with a
3:21
Speaker 1: young woman who just graduated nursing school. Where are we
3:23
Speaker 1: in terms of putting out doctors, nurses, nurse practitioners, things
3:29
Speaker 1: like that? Is how's the pipeline? I mean, the pipeline
3:34
Speaker 1: is obviously not great. It takes quite a while to
3:37
Speaker 1: be able to get your degree. Of course, physicians the
3:40
Speaker 1: most right um CRNAs, which are advanced practice nurses who
3:45
Speaker 1: go on traditional training. But even for our ends, I
3:48
Speaker 1: mean it's they can't get them out fast enough. Now
3:51
Speaker 1: the person who had dinner with is going to chop
3:53
Speaker 1: which children's hospital and Filly is one of the most
3:56
Speaker 1: desirable ones. But think about the hospitals that don't have
4:00
Speaker 1: that kind of reputation. It's getting extraordinarily difficult to be
4:04
Speaker 1: able to place in a practitioners. I wonder what your
4:08
Speaker 1: take is on the Build Back Better bill, And not
4:11
Speaker 1: because I want you to take a political stance, In
4:14
Speaker 1: fact I don't, but it does seem that it's extraordinarily
4:19
Speaker 1: difficult in America, especially compared to other countries, for um,
4:24
Speaker 1: for mothers to go to work, for mothers to get
4:27
Speaker 1: an education and to go to work compared to you know, Germany,
4:31
Speaker 1: where I spend most of my time because childcare is
4:35
Speaker 1: expensive and it's an arduous process for a lot of
4:38
Speaker 1: people to to feed their kids. I mean, is this
4:41
Speaker 1: going to help? Hopefully it will, And you know, you
4:45
Speaker 1: bring up an excellent point. It is difficult. You can't
4:48
Speaker 1: do it all at the same time. This is why
4:49
Speaker 1: we're seeing for physicians such an uptick in them wanting
4:54
Speaker 1: to do telehealth because they don't have to these travelers,
4:58
Speaker 1: they don't have to travel to another occasion. They can
5:01
Speaker 1: do it from home and that's making a big difference.
5:04
Speaker 1: But of course those things in healthcare can't be done
5:08
Speaker 1: in terms of telehealth. But we if we don't do something,
5:10
Speaker 1: it's only going to get that much worse. All right, Joanna,
5:14
Speaker 1: thank you so much for joining us. We appreciate it.
5:15
Speaker 1: Janet Elkin, President and chief executive officer of Icon Medical Network.
5:24
Speaker 1: One of the analysts that we have on a lot
5:27
Speaker 1: Dan Ives. I think he's one of the most listened
5:29
Speaker 1: to analysts on Wall Street when it comes to the
5:31
Speaker 1: tech area, and he is, to be fair bullish. Every
5:35
Speaker 1: company that he covers. He has an outperform on like
5:37
Speaker 1: thirty different companies of Penn State, Nitney exactly, he said,
5:42
Speaker 1: tweeted today, we believe there's five trillion dollars of e
5:45
Speaker 1: V auto market up for grabs, with Tesla likely to
5:48
Speaker 1: own two and a half trillion dollars of this pie.
5:51
Speaker 1: We estimate China is worth four hund dollars per share
5:53
Speaker 1: of the Testla story for two, raising our price target
5:56
Speaker 1: from eleven to four hundred with our bul case of
5:58
Speaker 1: eighteen hundred. So he's a big believer here. He's been right. Um,
6:02
Speaker 1: we have another uh Tesla fan, at least in terms
6:05
Speaker 1: of the car. Uh. Matt Winkler, Bloomberg News editor in
6:10
Speaker 1: chief emeritus and also the author of a piece on Rivian.
6:14
Speaker 1: So I didn't realize you owned a Tesla car as well. Matt.
6:18
Speaker 1: We talked about this on TV a couple of days ago.
6:20
Speaker 1: Last I heard you were in a Toyota Avalon. What
6:22
Speaker 1: happened two thousand and fourteen, to be precise. We acquired
6:29
Speaker 1: a models and we're happily driving it to this day. Uh.
6:34
Speaker 1: So you loved I know you loved the Avalon. I'll
6:38
Speaker 1: never forget when you told me about that. You had
6:40
Speaker 1: a lot of enthusiasm for it in terms of what
6:42
Speaker 1: we see here at Rivan, it is if you didn't
6:46
Speaker 1: know the Tesla story, it would be mind blowing the
6:49
Speaker 1: fact that electric car maker truckmaker can come out and
6:53
Speaker 1: get a hundred and twenty billion dollar market cap um
6:58
Speaker 1: even though they've only sold probably this point three or
7:00
Speaker 1: four hundred vehicles on the road. They're bigger than GM
7:05
Speaker 1: by almost thirty five percent right now, How is it possible?
7:10
Speaker 1: So what gets every investor excited Matt and Paul, I
7:15
Speaker 1: think you agree is growth. That is always what brings
7:20
Speaker 1: the market to its highest levels. And Tesla, for example, uh,
7:26
Speaker 1: since it went public in two thousand and ten, has
7:29
Speaker 1: seen four hundred times the growth of the average for
7:34
Speaker 1: the automotive industry over a ten year period, which is unprecedented.
7:40
Speaker 1: And that growth has enabled Tesla, as you now know UM,
7:44
Speaker 1: to make a profit um and to get to a
7:49
Speaker 1: point where even the doubters are now acknowledging that electric
7:54
Speaker 1: vehicles are for real, they are the future. And Tesla
7:59
Speaker 1: did that. So oh, it's set the stage for Ribbyan,
8:03
Speaker 1: which is going in a somewhat different direction because its
8:06
Speaker 1: focuses on trucks and suv but more particularly vans commercial
8:12
Speaker 1: um traffic. Jeff Bezos, who needs no introduction, uh, and
8:18
Speaker 1: his company Amazon already ordered a hundred thousand of these
8:23
Speaker 1: Ribbyan bands, which haven't been produced yet. But that gives
8:26
Speaker 1: you some idea of the anticipation of where this market
8:30
Speaker 1: is going. And the stock market is always about the future,
8:33
Speaker 1: it's not about the past, it's not about the rear
8:35
Speaker 1: view mirror. So this explains why Ribbyan as of this
8:41
Speaker 1: moment is number five in terms of market valuation among
8:46
Speaker 1: the top ten automakers, having sold fewer than fifty vehicles.
8:50
Speaker 1: Crazy and Matt, you're out with a column on all
8:53
Speaker 1: of this talking about the v market and evaluations, and
8:56
Speaker 1: along with your colleague Shinpay and Jennifer leew are really
8:59
Speaker 1: some great data. As always, the number of the line
9:02
Speaker 1: that kind of stuck out to me, Matt is, you know,
9:03
Speaker 1: the market value of the top ten automakers is more
9:05
Speaker 1: than two thirds electric, a reality considered improbable, if not impossible,
9:10
Speaker 1: just a year ago. And I agree with that shocked me.
9:14
Speaker 1: I mean, does that suggest that the traditional automakers they've
9:20
Speaker 1: just missed it or can they catch up? Do you think, well,
9:23
Speaker 1: they will have to catch up because probably by the
9:28
Speaker 1: internal combustion engine will be a museum piece. And so, uh,
9:34
Speaker 1: that's not a secret at this point. And so anyway,
9:40
Speaker 1: the uh, the rest of the industry gets to that
9:44
Speaker 1: point is going to be the story. And so they're
9:47
Speaker 1: going to do it all kinds of ways. But for sure,
9:50
Speaker 1: the ev makers can do only one thing, which is
9:54
Speaker 1: make electric vehicles. The rest of the industry has a
9:58
Speaker 1: much messier, more difficult, challenging task ahead. I've erected a
10:03
Speaker 1: museum to the internal combustion engine at my house. Increasingly
10:07
Speaker 1: I feel guiltier and guiltier about driving these cars, I
10:10
Speaker 1: will admit, because there's such huge emitters globally right internal
10:16
Speaker 1: combustion engines really contributing to um greenhouse gas emissions build
10:22
Speaker 1: up and climate climate change. Do you think we're gonna
10:25
Speaker 1: need continue to need government incentives Matt, for electric cars
10:30
Speaker 1: and investment in infrastructure from the government in order to
10:34
Speaker 1: make a change, to make that switch bigger. Here's the
10:37
Speaker 1: best answer to that question, Matt. California is the best
10:43
Speaker 1: performing economy in the United States, subject of another column
10:47
Speaker 1: you had recently, and it's number five in the world.
10:50
Speaker 1: If it were a country, it's number five in the world.
10:53
Speaker 1: California is the place, more so than any other state,
10:57
Speaker 1: where people's preferences and government policy converge. They converge, they're
11:04
Speaker 1: not at odds with each other. And that's why they're
11:07
Speaker 1: more e vs in California than anywhere else. Uh in
11:12
Speaker 1: the US and where you could easily see I mean
11:19
Speaker 1: the growth of evs accelerating and the fact that Rivan
11:25
Speaker 1: is an Irvine, California based company. Tesla of course started
11:30
Speaker 1: in California and Palo Auto. Even though it's moving its
11:34
Speaker 1: headquarters to Texas, the place where Tesla makes its vehicles
11:39
Speaker 1: is still Fremont. So that's not going to change, if anything,
11:43
Speaker 1: that the production is going to go up. So the
11:45
Speaker 1: answer your question is yes, Um, this just only accelerates,
11:50
Speaker 1: all right, Matt, thank you so much for joining us.
11:51
Speaker 1: Really appreciated. Matt Winkler, Editor in chief emeritus founder of
11:55
Speaker 1: Bloomberg News. He's something, Have you driven electrical? I'm not?
11:59
Speaker 1: All My God, are serious? I'm not. You have to
12:02
Speaker 1: try it, all right. I think that makes a convert
12:04
Speaker 1: and a lot of people when you experienced the I
12:06
Speaker 1: think it might be in the market. We'll see red
12:11
Speaker 1: and green on the screen is a good friend. Tom
12:12
Speaker 1: Keene likes to say, let's see what the action is
12:14
Speaker 1: with the small cap stocks. We do that every day
12:17
Speaker 1: at this time with Bloomberg Market Reporter. Yes, across asset
12:25
Speaker 1: markets correspondent actually, but thanks the Russell two thousand down
12:29
Speaker 1: zero point four percent on the day. Riskoff moved across
12:32
Speaker 1: the market. The Rustle two thousands. No different you under
12:34
Speaker 1: the hood, though you have some deal news. Simmons First
12:36
Speaker 1: National has agreed to acquire Spirit of Texas Bank shars
12:40
Speaker 1: in a cash and stock deal valued at about five
12:42
Speaker 1: eighty one million dollars. Spirit of Texas Bank shares. The
12:46
Speaker 1: takers st x B shares are up eight percent um.
12:49
Speaker 1: You also have Simmons First National Tier s f n
12:52
Speaker 1: C shares are down six percent to the downside. I'm
12:55
Speaker 1: sad to say the other stories are all downside stories.
12:57
Speaker 1: And Nanta Pharmaceuticals down eleven percent of the tickers e
13:01
Speaker 1: n t A after discontinuing development of its oral hepatitis
13:04
Speaker 1: B drug based on emerging safety concerns. You also have
13:08
Speaker 1: Bell Ring ticker b r b R down eight percent,
13:11
Speaker 1: maker of nutrition supplements, posting fiscal fourth quarter revenue that
13:15
Speaker 1: fell short of consensus estimates, and lastly, Record Systems UH
13:19
Speaker 1: down six percent, ticker r e k R, and AI
13:22
Speaker 1: technology company that is also the worst performer in the
13:25
Speaker 1: Russell two thousand index, missing three third quarter excuse me
13:29
Speaker 1: consensus estimates on both the top and bottom lines, and
13:32
Speaker 1: saying revenue will fall in the coming quarters. Bloom Now,
13:36
Speaker 1: what's the exact title here? I want to get this right?
13:38
Speaker 1: Markets correspondent for Bloomberg TV and radio. Have you thought
13:42
Speaker 1: about a different title? As interesting as I think, I
13:47
Speaker 1: was already a markets reporter, reporter and a correspondent. I
13:50
Speaker 1: don't know it's a title upgrade. It's a markets reporter.
13:54
Speaker 1: First I did it on print. Now I'm doing it
13:56
Speaker 1: on TV and radio. So all right? Are we gonna
13:58
Speaker 1: go with that? Mant? I think editor at large sounds
14:01
Speaker 1: good and pretty is a triple threat because she writes
14:05
Speaker 1: for Ben, she's on TV, and she's on radio. Actually
14:09
Speaker 1: a quadruple threat because she does quick take as well,
14:12
Speaker 1: and she probably does some social media thing that I
14:14
Speaker 1: don't even know about. I know Matt doesn't follow me
14:16
Speaker 1: on Twitter, so you wouldn't know. This is a very
14:19
Speaker 1: public call out. I fall out. I follow mostly people
14:23
Speaker 1: who drive race cars or ride motorcycles. So basically to
14:27
Speaker 1: get Matt to follow me, I have to go get
14:29
Speaker 1: a car and drive it around. I think so. And
14:31
Speaker 1: when it went a Grand Prix, all right, great, Thanks
14:34
Speaker 1: so much for joining us. We always love getting your
14:37
Speaker 1: thoughts there on the market. Avery Sheffield joins us now
14:39
Speaker 1: every Managing Director and Senior Portfolio off Long Short Equity
14:43
Speaker 1: head Funds Strategy at Rockefeller Asset Management. Every We just
14:47
Speaker 1: got through great, great third quarter earnings. I thought i'd
14:51
Speaker 1: see more, hear more concern and guidance as it relates
14:55
Speaker 1: to supply chains, global supply chains. You know, they called
14:59
Speaker 1: it out it. We're still seeing some pretty good guidance there.
15:02
Speaker 1: What are your thoughts? Yes, I mean you know this
15:06
Speaker 1: as the supply chain concerns. Um, we're really in focus
15:09
Speaker 1: kind of late August, kind of beginning with one of
15:12
Speaker 1: the major global footwear's announcements and then through September. You know,
15:16
Speaker 1: my instinct was that this was kind of a buy
15:19
Speaker 1: the dip opportunity because for key reasons, like one is
15:24
Speaker 1: um that when you we've seen when you have supply
15:27
Speaker 1: chain dynamics issues, it leads to less inventory and less
15:31
Speaker 1: inventory needs you know, less supply and and and and
15:34
Speaker 1: that match with demand allows for pricing power. But from
15:36
Speaker 1: a fundamental perspective on supply chain, no, there there are
15:39
Speaker 1: a few companies that are heavily have been heavily reliant
15:43
Speaker 1: on UM and this is an apparel retail sector UM
15:46
Speaker 1: that have been heavily reliant on regions that have had
15:48
Speaker 1: significant shutdowns. And they are they're absolutely experiencing UM less supply.
15:53
Speaker 1: But many, many, you know, apparel and an accessories manufacturers
15:57
Speaker 1: have distributed supply chains around the world, and it looked
16:00
Speaker 1: like they were going to be able to manage through this.
16:02
Speaker 1: You know, it's some incremental freight and shipping costs UM
16:06
Speaker 1: shifting around, you know, which inventories they were gonna hold.
16:08
Speaker 1: But it started to become evidence I think by October
16:11
Speaker 1: that many of the companies we're going to get through
16:13
Speaker 1: this relatively unscathed. And that's certainly what we've seen in
16:16
Speaker 1: the results. I have got to ask, you have a
16:20
Speaker 1: degree in neuroscience UM from Pomona. First of all, what
16:25
Speaker 1: is that and is that like science of the brain?
16:28
Speaker 1: I think? And what and what does that? What? What
16:30
Speaker 1: kind of edge does that give you? Oh so yes,
16:35
Speaker 1: I am a neuroscience major, and that is a science
16:37
Speaker 1: of the brain, and it includes hard sciences as well
16:40
Speaker 1: as psychology. And look, I I studied it because I
16:43
Speaker 1: find I find how I find science and how the
16:47
Speaker 1: human brain works to be fascinating. From a training perspective,
16:50
Speaker 1: this WI be speaking to anyone else looking to figure
16:52
Speaker 1: out what to study in college, certainly to become an
16:54
Speaker 1: investor or anything else. Um, something like neuroscience gives you
16:57
Speaker 1: just a very strong foundation in science, in the analytics
17:00
Speaker 1: and the math, um, asking questions, posing hypotheses, really trying
17:05
Speaker 1: to figure out, um, the answers to to open ended questions.
17:08
Speaker 1: So that's I think good training for anyone. And then
17:10
Speaker 1: the psychology, of of course, is what what really plays
17:13
Speaker 1: in every day and behavioral finance is something and I
17:15
Speaker 1: find absolutely financing and assassinating and um and focus on
17:20
Speaker 1: kind of on a daily basis of how that's playing
17:22
Speaker 1: into my investment decisions and those of others. And you
17:24
Speaker 1: went from there to Wharton, so, uh, you clearly know
17:27
Speaker 1: what you're talking about when it comes to business as well.
17:30
Speaker 1: What do you think about this renewed COVID explosion in
17:34
Speaker 1: Austria and Germany, we're seeing lockdowns, We're seeing mandated vaccines.
17:40
Speaker 1: Just when we thought it was kind of all over,
17:44
Speaker 1: right well, I mean, you know the nature of viruses,
17:46
Speaker 1: they keep coming around, right so UM, but the question
17:50
Speaker 1: is how severe are they when when they when? When
17:52
Speaker 1: they come around, and we're still seeing hospitalization rates flow.
17:55
Speaker 1: I mean there are certain areas, right whereas a lot
17:57
Speaker 1: of unvaccinated people that you're seeing UM in Austria and
18:00
Speaker 1: a few other places that are UM that are causing
18:03
Speaker 1: you know, some concern and leading to these lockdowns. But
18:06
Speaker 1: I think we're really the tail end of it. I
18:07
Speaker 1: mean you, I mean, look, I think we're going to
18:09
Speaker 1: see small, a small breakouts of COVID for a long time.
18:13
Speaker 1: I mean, this virus is likely, you know, to mutate,
18:15
Speaker 1: but as long as we've seen in Israel UM, getting
18:18
Speaker 1: those booster shots really works. And I think these vaccine
18:21
Speaker 1: mandates are really the answer. I mean a lot of
18:23
Speaker 1: the lockdowns we've seen, or they're not really lockdowns, but
18:26
Speaker 1: kind of slowing activity UM has been targeted to the
18:31
Speaker 1: unvaccinated in many countries, and moving towards these mandatory vaccinations
18:36
Speaker 1: I think is really the answer. Yep, I am vaxed
18:39
Speaker 1: and boost. It's all set to go. Every Sheffield Managing
18:42
Speaker 1: director and senior portfolio managed for Long Short Equity head
18:45
Speaker 1: fun Strategy at Rockefeller Asset Management. I want to get
18:53
Speaker 1: over right now to Jonathan Wade, he joins a senior
18:55
Speaker 1: research channelist at Frost Investment Advisors. And before we get
19:01
Speaker 1: into the meat of this uh interview, I gotta ask
19:04
Speaker 1: you about a piece I saw in your bio. It says,
19:08
Speaker 1: um current CFA, which I respect greatly and former c
19:12
Speaker 1: p A for twenty plus years. I thought being a
19:14
Speaker 1: c p A was like being a marine. Aren't you
19:16
Speaker 1: like always a c p A once you were a
19:18
Speaker 1: c p A. No. I kind of kind of leave
19:21
Speaker 1: that in the background, you know, because everyone wants you
19:23
Speaker 1: to ask accounting your tax question to you, So I
19:28
Speaker 1: leave that in the background exactly. Yeah, all right, Jonathan. UM,
19:33
Speaker 1: we've just come through some really good third quarter earnings. UM.
19:38
Speaker 1: I think for a lot of people that gave them.
19:39
Speaker 1: If you just look at the market reaction, that's kind
19:42
Speaker 1: of what the market needed for this next leg. What's
19:44
Speaker 1: your earnings outlook? Do you feel like this market's expensive
19:48
Speaker 1: or did the earning story kind of come through on
19:50
Speaker 1: that old pe analysis. Well, I mean, yeah, that's a
19:54
Speaker 1: mixed question, right, I mean, because the valuation here is
19:57
Speaker 1: a little a little pricey. But on the backdrop of this,
20:01
Speaker 1: earnings look great, the economic outlook looks great. Um. The
20:06
Speaker 1: when you think about the consumer being two thirds of
20:09
Speaker 1: g d P in great shape, um under levered on
20:13
Speaker 1: their balance sheet, ability to spend more, the intentions to
20:16
Speaker 1: spend over the next twelve months or like an all
20:18
Speaker 1: time high, and then you look at a business spending
20:23
Speaker 1: the economy and capex intentions are high, cash on balance
20:27
Speaker 1: sheet is very high. So we're cautiously optimistic as we
20:30
Speaker 1: roll through the fourth quarter in two with the question being,
20:34
Speaker 1: you know what happens with COVID and we're getting a
20:37
Speaker 1: fresh out of that today. Yeah, exactly. I mean I
20:40
Speaker 1: woke up this morning, perused the markets around three, and
20:45
Speaker 1: then uh, I started listening to um Blues Traveler record,
20:49
Speaker 1: you know, the one with Dance with Me Felicia. I
20:51
Speaker 1: love that that record. And I looked back and all
20:54
Speaker 1: of a sudden, I saw the dollar index was shooting up,
20:57
Speaker 1: and the yen was gaining a lot of strength, and
20:59
Speaker 1: there was a bit in bonds, and I thought what
21:01
Speaker 1: the heck is going on? This has got to be
21:03
Speaker 1: the COVID numbers, and indeed it was. Uh if that
21:07
Speaker 1: turns into a real problem for the global economy, art stocks,
21:10
Speaker 1: price for for perfection, well, I think at a certain
21:14
Speaker 1: point you just we're gonna need to have to look
21:16
Speaker 1: through COVID, you know, because it's it's not going to
21:19
Speaker 1: be with us forever. We're eventually going to roll through this.
21:22
Speaker 1: We like you said, we have the fighter pill that's
21:25
Speaker 1: out there. Um, you know you think that that would
21:28
Speaker 1: give you some reassurance that we're going to have some
21:30
Speaker 1: return to normalcy soon. So alright, So Jonathan, what are
21:34
Speaker 1: the areas that you guys are doing working right now?
21:37
Speaker 1: I know there's a couple of camps out there. I'm
21:39
Speaker 1: sticking with the you know, the big growth stocks that
21:41
Speaker 1: have been so good to me for so long, and
21:43
Speaker 1: the other camps say, now I'm swinging for the cyclical
21:45
Speaker 1: trade here the reopening trade, and um, where do you
21:48
Speaker 1: guys think about opportunity? Um? Well, see, we're you know,
21:52
Speaker 1: broad investors. We value strategies and growth strategies. So uh,
21:57
Speaker 1: you know, on these when we look to two, I
21:59
Speaker 1: think there is the thought that we could see a
22:01
Speaker 1: little bit of a cyclical bump at least in the
22:03
Speaker 1: first half of the year on that reopening trade. So yeah,
22:06
Speaker 1: we think there is a little bit of legs left
22:08
Speaker 1: in that reopening trade, especially travel names that are getting
22:11
Speaker 1: cocked today, and we think that they should see some
22:13
Speaker 1: improvement rolls through. But also on the growth side, it's
22:17
Speaker 1: I mean it's again you still have valuation to deal with.
22:21
Speaker 1: You have the retail investor in there that's just crowding
22:24
Speaker 1: into these momentum names. But otherwise we think that the
22:28
Speaker 1: tech secular tail winds are here to stay and we'll
22:31
Speaker 1: see a continuation of that through the next few years. Yeah,
22:35
Speaker 1: the airline's got have gotten battered again today. I think
22:39
Speaker 1: Ryan Air is down ten sessions in a row, and
22:43
Speaker 1: I was looking at UM Ryan Air, I A G
22:46
Speaker 1: and Leftanza today. Ryan Air over the last five years
22:50
Speaker 1: is the only one that's given you any kind of games,
22:51
Speaker 1: and that's only ten Liftanza and UH and I A
22:57
Speaker 1: G are both down I think six and nine per
23:02
Speaker 1: year respectively over the last five years. You don't really
23:06
Speaker 1: want to invest in airline stock, do you, well, and
23:09
Speaker 1: they've got the double Emmy of of energy prices moving
23:12
Speaker 1: against them, and labor, labor, labor, Yeah, yeah, exactly, and
23:16
Speaker 1: that's going to just be a huge destruction this upcoming
23:19
Speaker 1: holiday season. So you know, I've got a daughter coming
23:21
Speaker 1: home from college. I hope she makes it for the holidays,
23:24
Speaker 1: So I hope she does too. Absolutely all right, Jonathan,
23:27
Speaker 1: thanks so much for joining us. Jonathan Waite, Senior Research
23:29
Speaker 1: Channel's Frost Investment Advisers. Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg
23:35
Speaker 1: Markets podcast. You can subscribe and listen to interviews with
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Speaker 1: Apple Podcasts or whatever podcast platform you prefer. I'm Matt Miller.
23:43
Speaker 1: I'm on Twitter at Matt Miller three. On Faull Sweeney,
23:48
Speaker 1: I'm on Twitter at pt Sweeney. Before the podcast. You
23:50
Speaker 1: can always catch us worldwide at Bloomberg Radio.