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Feb 13 | Closing Market Report · Closing Market Report

• 0:00
  Todd Gleason: From the land to current university in Urbana Champaign, Illinois. This is the closing market report. It's the February 2026. I'm extension's Todd Gleeson. Coming up, we'll talk about the commodity markets with Mike Zuzlow, globalcomresearch.com.
• 0:14
  He'll show up in our second half hour on the home station too during our commodity week program along with Arlen Suderman and Ellen Dearden. Later in this first half hour, if you're with us the whole way through, you'll be able to hear from Eric Snongrass at Nutrien Ag Solutions about the weather forecast, and we'll discuss next week's IPT or Illinois performance tested bull sales. Well, that'll take place in Springfield. Travis Meteer from U of I Extension will join us on this Friday edition of the closing market report from Illinois Public Media. Todd Gleason services are made available to WILL by University of Illinois Extension.
• 0:53
  March corn for the day settled at $4.31 and 3 quarters of a cent. It was a half higher. May futures at $4.42, a quarter higher in December at $4.64 and a half, up a half. Soybeans in the nearby March down four and a quarter to $11.33. November 1113 and a half down two and three quarters, and soft red winter wheat, three and three quarters lower at $5.48 and 3 quarters.
• 1:15
  Mike Zuzula, globalcomresearch.com from Atchison, Kansas now joins us to take a look at the marketplace. Hi, Mike. Thanks for being with us again on a Friday.
• 1:23
  Mike Zuzolo: Great to be with you, Todd.
• 1:25
  Todd Gleason: Also looking forward to having you at the ALDAG Outlook. That's what, two weeks from next Tuesday. Not long now. It'd be pretty darn soon.
• 1:35
  Mike Zuzolo: Let's hope we keep these sixties and seventies going while we're all traveling back and forth over this time period. It'd be great to get everybody together again this year and hook up for a day and really talk some details about the markets and pretty interesting times we're in right now. It kind of reminds me of the year I graduated from high school, 1985, the year that, Back to the Future came out. Feels like a lot like the Reagan era policies are being still utilized. So maybe we can touch on that when we see each other in person next month, Todd.
• 2:07
  Todd Gleason: Oh, yeah. You bet. That is Tuesday, March 3 at the Beef House in Covington, Indiana. Mike will be there along with a whole bevy of analysts you hear on the air at WILL. You can find details in the agenda online at willag.org.
• 2:21
  Many of the PharmDoc team will be up front. And Eric Snodgrass, who you'll hear in a bit on this program will also be there to kick us off. Should be a great show. Just $40. Love to have you there, but you need to register.
• 2:33
  Do it right now. Willag.og. Now might be a $19.85 kind of thing. We could talk about that. Then maybe you could talk about it a little today.
• 2:44
  But, really, I wanna know what happened, with wheat today after yesterday's rally.
• 2:49
  Mike Zuzolo: Well, we found out how significant the weather is, I think, on Friday here in The United States, Todd. We really didn't do anything to change the weather issues, very big concerns when it comes to extreme cold weather coming back into key areas of Eastern Europe, which would include some Ukrainian territory and even some Russian territory, especially in the South. It sounds like the snowpack is not as great there. Also, quite a bit of rain coming for France and Germany, rains that are significant enough that there's concern about the potential for losing some wheat crop over there as well. But The United States, it really flipped in terms of the weather models on Friday versus Thursday.
• 3:33
  Much better coverage expected this coming weekend. Kinda takes the sting and the support that we had on Thursday from The US drought monitor, which jumped another 2% to 45%. That compares to 23% a year ago and we're starting to see Kansas, my state, start to eke up a little bit. 7% drought versus 3% a week ago. So it was a huge technical week though, Todd, and I think that's where the wheat really comes into play.
• 4:03
  Because if you think about the lead month corn beans and wheat, we've got some really stiff resistance levels at four thirty five to four forty five in corn, eleven thirty five to eleven forty five in soybeans, and 5.35 to $5.45 in soft red wheat. And including on Friday, we were able to get to $4.32 and threefour for a high on the March corn. So we are up against or just through some of these major resistance levels. How major? In the case of wheat, we have not seen a monthly close above $5.4 since January 2025, and so it's a pretty big deal if we would be able to bust through that, especially given next week's updates from the baseline and the agricultural outlook form.
• 4:52
  Todd Gleason: Yeah. So that ag outlook form, I think, is going to be really important. The baseline could change everything. Does that happen very often?
• 5:00
  Mike Zuzolo: It does in in the the specific categories like the corn acres versus bean acres. This year, because of the tariffs, I think there's extra potential to see the baseline adjusted, especially given we just got a US India deal. US Taiwan deal was announced on Thursday. These bilateral trading deals probably make this a little bit more important than normal in terms of the baseline projections. I say that especially because I don't think USDA, and I was in touch with them on report day, WASDE report day, when it came to the acreage and the yield numbers, that 98,800,000 planted corn from this year, I don't think it's going to go anywhere based upon what Lance Hoenig shared with me on report day.
• 5:46
  And so theoretically, you'd see a lot more acres rotate back into soybeans. And so really leaves me with the question. We talked about this a lot on commodity week. Was is the idea, are these acres, if they're out there and the USDA supports them, is it justified to be at these price levels in soybeans if USDA doesn't come in and really change the numbers and the structure of the renewable diesel. And I've been looking at the Department of Energy website and their data with their latest outlook, and it does look like they're trying to squeeze in some more 45 z consumption because of what we've seen so far.
• 6:24
  Todd Gleason: Yeah. Very good commodity with you and Ellen Deirdre and Arlen Suderman. Now I know Arlen wasn't there for part of the time, and you didn't hear all of what he had to say simply because he wasn't around, but he talked about politics and and the idea, and I think that this might play into, your Reagan era, although it would be the the Soviets at the time. The idea that president Xi and president Trump actually kind of need each other at this point. She in a bit of trouble.
• 6:55
  Trump still, fine with his base, but the rest of the country having some more issues with him. So it it's interesting to watch that and to listen to Arlen. It's a really good program coming up again. And I'm wondering, maybe you could give us a little preview of what you're thinking about as it's related to 1985?
• 7:14
  Mike Zuzolo: Yeah. You hit it on the nose. You know, Russia is there again in the form of Russia instead of the Soviet Union. But I would also say that China is playing both the role of Japan in terms of the currency market and and over supplying the world market with its goods through a cheap currency, which it is correcting. The Chinese offshore currency made a thirty three month high this week, and I think that's due to president Trump's policies in large part.
• 7:39
  But they they are working against us in terms of currencies like Japan did in the mid eighties, and they are also in that military side of the equation and strategic issues politically. And I've told clients, and I think I said this on Commodity Week, the way I'd frame it when it comes to soybeans, because I'm so concerned about the world's supplies, I trust President Trump when it comes to his policies. I'm not so sure I trust China so much when it comes to buying our soybeans, and that's kinda how I'm playing it this year.
• 8:07
  Todd Gleason: Alright. So the fundamentals, though, at of just supply put this marketplace where? Neutral to sideways? And then there's a lot of other things at play that we just don't quite understand yet?
• 8:21
  Mike Zuzolo: Yeah. I added about 4% in my crush number for 2627 and still came up with almost a 500,000,000 bushel carryover for soybeans because I'm at 87,500,000 acres because of this rotation and the bean corn ratio for lack of a better term. But if we don't see any bigger domestic soybean oil usage than what I've plugged in, I think we're at about 5,000,000,000 gallons. The trade's thinking 5.61. That's kind of what I was bouncing off of.
• 8:48
  But if I don't get anything more than that and we come off with a 180 Brazilian crop, it doesn't justify China buying US beans at a much higher cost, against what they could buy in Brazil, especially with that new Shanghai port in Peru and that intercontinental railroad that they're working on right now.
• 9:06
  Todd Gleason: All things you've been watching and telling us about. I appreciate that too. We'll hear more from you next week and then again at the All Dag Outlook on Tuesday, March 3. Thanks much.
• 9:15
  Mike Zuzolo: Looking forward to it, Todd. Thank you.
• 9:17
  Todd Gleason: Mhmm. Mike Souzlo is with globalcalmresearch.com. He is in Atchison, Kansas. Now on the February, that's next Thursday, the Illinois performance tested bull sale will take place in Springfield at the State Fairgrounds. The manager of that event is Travis Mateer.
• 9:38
  He's an extension beef cattle specialist right here at the University of Illinois. Thank you much, Travis, for taking some time with me. This event is important not only to the state of Illinois and beef cattle production here, but across the Midwest. Can you tell me about how it has improved herds, throughout The United States?
• 9:57
  Travis Meteer: So the Illinois performance tested bull sale has a fifty eight year history, and it's a long distinguished history. I've only been the manager of the sale for the last fifteen years. There were a lot of of really, good folks and and a lot of efforts before me to establish the Illinois performance tested bull sale. But it has a long history of being a source for performance genetics. And and, again, as you mentioned, these cattle that are raised by progressive Illinois seed stock operations, go back to Illinois, purebred and commercial breeders, but also throughout the Midwest and The United States of, supply and genetics that are, I think, really meet a strict standard.
• 10:39
  That's what the sales history has been bent has been benchmarked on setting a standard. You know, we catalog bulls every year. There's bulls that that don't make it to Springfield, and because they have to meet so so many criteria to be there, there's strict performance goals, strict herd health requirements. And then, obviously, we we've really gone I think made tremendous strides in EPDs and, expected progeny differences, and then those predictors of what profit and what performance is gonna look like in these bulls' offspring. These bulls, again, for this year will also sell with genomic enhanced DPDs.
• 11:18
  So just more proof is in the pudding, less risk. And then I think the value that producers find in the genetics at Illinois Performance Tested Bull Sale has been a a big part of its history because we have so many repeat buyers that come back year after year and and find the value in the bull. So, from my perspective, I'll I love working with a good group of progressive consignors that that raise genetics, that meet the standards. And then, you know, it's from a commercial standpoint of of outfitting operations with genetics that they know can go into their herd and and add profitability and add and generate revenue, is important for our state's beef industry. And so, it's just a privilege to work with the people on both sides, the bulls, And, really, I just enjoy continuing the tradition of Illinois Performance Tested Bull Sale.
• 12:13
  Todd Gleason: And that note, this is a data driven sale, and most of it, I think, is not collected on the date of the sale.
• 12:20
  Travis Meteer: Yeah. Absolutely. I mean, that's the that's the big part here is we give there is a lot of information. There is a lot of data, and we try to help producers navigate that. I think if we look at what these bulls are going to be asked to do, a bull purchase this year will result in calves in the next, you know, two to five years.
• 12:39
  Those heifers that are retained are gonna be in the herd for the next, three to seven to ten years. And then the daughters of those, the cow families that are established, that's generational. And so these purchases do matter. These this investment that you're making at this time does matter. So you need to have the data.
• 12:58
  You need to make those good decisions. And then the the breeders behind them like we have, the bulls the sell with a guarantee and the breeders that are willing to work with you in the future.
• 13:08
  Todd Gleason: Hey. Thank you, Travis. The Illinois performance tested bull sale will take place next Thursday. That's the February 19 at the Illinois State Fairgrounds. Check it out at iptbullsale.com.
• 13:19
  That stands for Illinois Performance Tested Bull Sale, iptbullsale.com. You can attend in person, of course, or you can watch and bid online. Let's check-in on the global growing regions. Eric Stongrass is here from Nutrien Ag Solutions. Hi, Eric.
• 13:47
  Thank you for being with us. I'm gonna get right into this. I know that farmers are worried, particularly here in East Central Illinois and across a large part of the Midwest. And they've been asking, when do we really start to worry about the dry drought conditions that we are in and the coming growing season? Now part of it is they kinda like that to persist for a little bit, I think, so that they could get, you know, a little higher price, but they really are worried.
• 14:14
  Do they need to be?
• 14:16
  Eric Snodgrass: Well, in Illinois, farmer, no. I mean, we we can we honestly don't even need to worry until, I'd say, the March. We we can sometimes make up all of a fall and winter drought with just a good pattern at the March, April, but that starts to encroach on our ability to get a new crop established and get our planting in with more wide open windows. But anyway, I'll tell you this, Todd. I I do know there are people that are more worried than the Illinois farmers right now, and I'll tell you where two of them live because I I got to see them both this week.
• 14:48
  Earlier in the week, I was with a group in Iowa, but a couple of folks were from Nebraska, and Nebraska is bone dry. And there are major concerns given that they hit they were in the upper seventies over the last week with temperatures, windy, dry, and it is just I mean, there's no snow. There's no snow across the state. The Platte River system is at record low in terms of its snowpack that'll feed the river, and the whole of the Missouri Basin has no snow on it. But it was interesting, Todd, I was in Vegas talking to our western sales region yesterday for Nutrien, And when I showed the forecast to them, I I mean, I almost lost it myself, but there was a almost standing ovation, loud cheering.
• 15:28
  They were all excited because it is finally breaking. Like, no one has ever it's never happened before where there's just been cheering in the middle of one of my talks, but I I felt like a million bucks. But, I mean, here's what I told them. I said, look. We had one time period at the December January where we had good flow into the West.
• 15:46
  Now it did not get all the way to the Midwest, but it was in the West. Since then, shut down, big high pressure cell moved in, and they've been bone dry and very warm. In fact, they were talking about how a lot of their tree fruits, tree nuts, and things, the trees are blooming right now in Central Valley Of California. And they're like, this is a little early. We've got to get more moisture in place.
• 16:07
  And I showed them the forecast, and Todd, there's a Western trough. So all that I just told you is to tell you that there is a trough of cold air coming into the West. It's gonna push mild air over us, and it's gonna take the jet stream from where it has been, which is attacking us from the Northwest, and get it coming out of the Southwest. And I'm pretty excited to see it, but I'll be honest with you. You wanna know one funny thing?
• 16:29
  I'm reading a book right now, Ty, and we always talk about books. Right. But I'm reading a book about the wreck of the Evan Fitzgerald back 11/10/1975. And I don't know if the author knew how important a statement was that that he made. And he goes, well, you can't forget that the, you know, the big, you know, winter storm that hit Lake Superior that wrecked the Edmund Fitzgerald started in New Mexico.
• 16:55
  And I'm like, no. That's super important, man. I I know I'm I'm talking to him even though it's a recording. Right? And I'm like, that's soup that that's it, Todd.
• 17:03
  It's it's flow from the Southwest. So we got a chance of rain this weekend. We got more mild conditions coming in, and slowly but surely, we're gonna start to work against this drought. So you can tell I'm a bit excited. You can tell this pattern change is needed, and, we'll see how it all does.
• 17:18
  Todd Gleason: Okay. So I have to go back to the Friday I missed with you because I was on the Hudson River
• 17:24
  Eric Snodgrass: Ah.
• 17:25
  Todd Gleason: With the ice floes on that day. And holy smokes, that was cold out there. We went out to the Statue Of Liberty, and I have picked up and am reading the Great Departure Ah. Because I went to Ellis Island. It's pretty data dense, but it is about the Eastern European immigration into The United States, and then about 30% of them float back Wow.
• 17:48
  As well. Yeah. I know. So just really interesting. Okay.
• 17:51
  Enough about books. Enough about books. Go on. So what do you see? What was that forecast that made everybody stand?
• 17:59
  Eric Snodgrass: Yeah. So, Todd, I mean, there's a chance that over the next two weeks, there could be a 100 more inches of snow put at the highest peaks of the Sierra Nevada. We could even hit the Central Rockies with snow, and right now the Colorado Basin, which I mean, that's what feeds the Colorado River, you know, it's the lowest it's been in ten years in terms of snowpack. Now the last holdout for moisture is going to be the Central And Northern Plains. So we're gonna have to monitor that because they're gonna get the moisture at the end of this time period.
• 18:31
  And if they do not get much, we're gonna watch overwinter drought continue there. But what what's breaking, Todd, is exactly what you described. We have been so cold East, and, yeah, the Northeast has been hammered with cold weather and big snows and so mild West. You have to flip that around, get the mild East and the cold West to get the jet to weigh things up and open up the Gulf. Now the question we all have is, do we have to go back to cold weather?
• 18:55
  Right? My kids that's the first thing I got asked when I got home, hey. Is it gonna be this warm for a while? And I'm like, no. Hi, dad.
• 19:02
  Glad you're home. You know? Did you bring me anything? It's like, no. It's a it's just gonna be warm.
• 19:06
  And I'll tell you, there are some signals that we may deal with at the end of this month, of March, another opportunity to access that Arctic air. But with the polar vortex relocating to I mean, from Scandinavia to Siberia, it's on the other side of the planet, it's gonna be hard to get sustained. You know, I'm talking a week and a half or two weeks of Arctic air in place. I think we have a couple more cold shots. It's just not, you know, the the risk of that sustained cold coming through.
• 19:39
  So I I I think we're gonna get through the rest of February on the more mild side of things. Question is, do the March and April rains revive or kill the overwinter drought?
• 19:50
  Todd Gleason: Yeah. Back up just a second. I wanna go to March 3. That's the day that you and I are supposed to be at the all day I got. Look.
• 19:55
  You're making a trip to the airport too Yeah. As soon as you're done. And, honestly, I'm a little excited on the idea that we might have some snow, some cold just because we've done actually, we've done the all day hag outlook in the middle of blizzards, and everybody comes. Yeah. So but it's it's it's fun.
• 20:15
  I like I like good weather too, so I prefer the good weather. But all day I got look. You're gonna kick that off. Willag.org. You can purchase your tickets right now.
• 20:24
  Now turn to that longer range. What does it tell you for the Midwest?
• 20:29
  Eric Snodgrass: You're right, man. Good weather can kill a good farmer meeting. I mean, I I had one in June a few years ago. It was the first nonwindy day in Indiana. There's supposed to be over 400 growers showing up.
• 20:41
  Only four showed up because they were all getting work done, you know? And so I get it. But no, so I'd say this. Right now, there seems to be increasing evidence that we might see what we typically see, which is a bit of a tightening up of our early spring windows. New models that are out from now through the March, even into early April, wanna keep the Ohio Valley, which we're a part of, you know, they wanna keep that on the wetter side of average.
• 21:07
  Now that's part of a longer term trend, so we should expect that. What I'll be most interested in, Todd, is in spring does the Delta end up getting plenty of rain and revive their soil moisture. That's a good indicator of our early season drought risk. Basically, we stay relatively wet to our south, in other words, if Matt Bennett, if you're talking to him and he's complaining about it being too wet, we're typically in pretty good shape for our, you know, early early summer weather patterns. Right now though, Todd, I have to tell you, if the markets are gonna use the forecast models to tell some sort of a weather story, they're gonna see one that honestly is risk off.
• 21:45
  I mean, the models are not aggressive on heat. They're not aggressive on dryness. And as a result, there's not gonna be any reason for them to look at those models and say, oh, we better get prepared. There's increased risk of a problem. So that's the downfall of having a good weather forecast going into summer.
• 22:04
  Todd Gleason: Risk on in South America, right?
• 22:06
  Eric Snodgrass: Yeah, a little bit, but I mean, it's trying to rain down there in Argentina, and Brazil's crop coming out fast, high NDVI, and no major, major weather forecast models suggesting that there's some big problem coming to South America. So we're all sitting here going, alright. When's the trouble gonna happen? And as we rapidly move toward an El Nino summer, is is it gonna show up in somewhere that matters? And that'll be what what we'll be talking about.
• 22:34
  Todd Gleason: Alright. We look forward to talking with you again next Friday, the following month, and then having you at the Beef House on the March. Thanks much.
• 22:41
  Eric Snodgrass: You bet, Todd.
• 22:42
  Todd Gleason: That's Eric Snodgrass. He is with Nutrien Ag Solutions joined us on this Friday edition of the closing market report. They came to you from Illinois Public Media. It's public radio for the farming world online on demand at willag.org. Freaking by today, your tickets for the all day ag outlook.
• 22:59
  Now stay with us if you can. Commodity week is up next on our home station and many of these radio stations over the weekend. Otherwise, you can listen to it online right now. Doctor.