Latest / Cultural Wars | America Out Loud News / Oil shock, Iran war, and the 2026 election bombshell

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Oil shock, Iran war, and the 2026 election bombshell · Cultural Wars | America Out Loud News

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Broadcasting around the world.
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This is on the record with Christian Briggs.
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Serious talk about what's happening around the world and how it affects you.
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Unfiltered truth for a world on edge.
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Follow us on X at BMC underscore H AM live in three, two, one.
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Welcome back, everybody.
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This is Christian Briggs, the host of the On the Record with me.
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Today I'm in I invited my buddy Chris Jeffer, not walking walker.
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That's correct.
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He gets confused sometimes when he's walking down at the airports.
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He always gets his audiograph to ask for.
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All the time.
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All the time.
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Oh, there's just like him.
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The continental.
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Yeah, the continental.
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That's right.
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We're gonna go to the hotel.
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So what we're gonna do is we're gonna talk about Iran today.
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We're gonna talk about specifically what are the do's and the don'ts that we've seen so far.
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We're gonna talk about the consequences.
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Aramco, for anybody who hasn't heard of Aramco, that's the largest oil company in the world, publicly traded out of uh Saudi Arabia.
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Aramco CEO warns of catastrophic consequences for oil markets.
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CEO, Amin Nasser painted the Iran war as the biggest crisis the region's oil and gas industry has ever faced in history.
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I think it's pretty much global global history because the disruption is so bad it and it destroyed a couple economies there for about four days, apparently.
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They were uh they were on the verge of just being annihilated because of 120 dollar oil.
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So and we're we're finally uh ready to kind of dive into something that most people have been avoiding.
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You've seen a lot of headlines, but you've not seen guts, you've not seen the inner workings of what this Iran thing was all about.
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Was it really about oil?
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Was it about nuclear weapons, or was it just Trump pissed off at somebody he just didn't like?
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Or maybe it was all three.
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Maybe it was all the above, Chris.
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Yeah, I I think really when you look at President Trump's foreign policy, you always have to look to the prison of China.
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And he sees the threat of China, the the fact that he was handed a really bad hand from 25 years of bad policies that relates to China.
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And so I think when you look at his decision making, he's always looking at how to get America back on top in terms of technology, in terms of military capability, in terms of energy production.
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Um, you know, he was handed a bad hand, and uh he's trying to do what he can to fix it.
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And so I think what we've seen is the work in Venezuela, cutting off oil to to uh uh oil exports to China, we've seen now in Iran cutting off oil exports to China.
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They're working to uh systemically give us an advantage in terms of both resources and with precious metals and minerals to get us back on the equal footing with China right now.
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People don't want to really realize that we're kind of behind um on a lot of things that China's been doing over the last 20 years.
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And so President, I think rightfully is concerned about that and is taking um steps that he can to do it.
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Now, I don't think that's a public debate that he's having, and I think that's partly intentional, but also partly kind of looking at his long-term strategic value.
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This is a man who values the art of the deal and values um you know strategic thinking in business, and I think that's how he's approaching his his job as president in the White House, and we're seeing the effects of that sometimes um negatively in terms of the world economy, but also I think we know the a singular vision that he's trying to do is to try to put America on a better footing on the international stage.
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I think that's an underwritten story over the last 20 years.
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Yeah, and so that that is exactly right.
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When you get handed a bag of rocks, they really you're you're sitting there going, okay, I've got an administration in theory, he's put the people together to try to help fix these things, but the bag of rocks was I think bigger, deeper, heavier, worse than he thought.
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I think it was more about Pandora's box with the bag with the uh with the bag of rocks kind of on top of it.
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He got that layer, and then next thing you know, he's like, whoa, hey, what the what's beneath the rocks?
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What's beneath the rocks is not good.
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And that was China's China's pushed to to really make China great again uh from a standpoint of their own domestic policy and strategic initiatives, financially and military to make them great all over the world.
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I mean they they owned it, they've owned it all.
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Um let me let me go down this rabbit hole here really quick because it's a really good one.
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And so the question is is now that we've got a third bat uh third battles, I think a carrier group or something.
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Yeah.
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France, I think is bringing a an aircraft group as well.
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Yeah.
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So let me read this headline to you today, because this is fresh off the wire today.
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So the CEO of a Ramco, and for anybody who hasn't heard of a Ramco, that's a big, that's like a what seven trillion dollar company or something.
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It's a big oil company.
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It's uh quite impressive, actually.
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So the Saudi Aramco, so look at Aramco, A R A M C O.
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So CEO Umman Nasser warned that further disruptions to global energy supply could prove catastrophic as tensions in the Middle East continue to escalate.
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Underscoring the precarious nature of the situation, Nasser said in comments to analysts and investors on Tuesday morning that the Iran war is the biggest crisis the region's oil and gas industry has ever faced.
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Uh, I would say that's the uh minimum um because it's global now.
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So especially Japan and South Korea.
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I mean, their markets dropped like 20% or something crazy the other day.
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The disruption has caused a severe chain reaction and not only shipping and insurance, but there's also a drastic domino effect on aviation, agriculture, automotive, and other industries, Nasser said.
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Sounds like this would be catastrophic consequences for the world's oil markets the longer this disruption goes on.
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Okay, here's my question.
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If it is more drastic, the consequences for the global economy, that's gonna take us down.
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I mean, that's gotta lower our GDP.
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That's gotta lower the consumer-based overseas buying our stuff, the tourism.
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That's gonna hurt hospitality.
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It could hurt uh Airbnb.
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It could hurt everything that people do when they're getting here, especially the tourists, but not only that, if crew stays above that $80 mark, you know, that's still gonna be probably a shock of about a three and a half to four percent CPI, possibly PPI, even core inflation rates as we continue this mess.
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What's your thoughts?
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I mean, the this has the negative impact of COVID with the increase of stagflation and cost cost increases.
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During COVID, when we shut down the economy, which is one of the biggest blunders in, you know, kind of financial economic and in global policy history.
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Um, oil dropped to I think 40 dollars uh barrel at one point.
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And so at least from a standpoint of economic development, it was affordable.
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Now we have um, you know, disruption within the global economy, but we have oil hovering around 100 and you know, spike yesterday at 100 and what 15.
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And now we're looking at a at a higher rate of oil with you know not the level of of spend.
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So yeah, it impacts travel, it impacts um everything.
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I mean, you know, I I love this show Landman really talked well about the oil industry overall and how impactful it is on everything, whether it's plastics, whether it's you know, even wind turbines use oil to um you know, lubricate their their facilities.
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Everything was relying on oil on oil in this economy.
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And if you have a 60% um disruption in the market that comes out of straight horror moves to Asia, that impacts everything for trade to everything.
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We saw a huge, huge uh downward shift in the market after just some some tariff decisions from the president last year.
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We're looking at a tariff issue times 10 relative to um the global impact because this is talking about the actual supply chain globally, not just to the United States.
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So I think that's uh a real issue that's not really being affected in the market so far, but something that's something we need to really take keeping an eye on, because really, you know, this has a downward impact on everything relative to produce.
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You know, we we've seen over and over again from our own um farmers that the terrorists have done a pretty big number on on exports in terms of soybeans and other things.
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If there's no place to even take those on the global market because they're this is such a disruption in Asia um and the Middle East, that this could have massive impacts.
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Europe, um Europe isn't having the oil of their own anyway, do they?
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Other than that, or what it comes from Iran.
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So we have a lot of work here in terms of seeing the ripple effects of this decision to to do it.
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Now, I I trust the president's decision making on it, but I think there's a lot of unforeseen consequences of such a destabilizing um effort that we still have to deal with.
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Okay.
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Oh, Europe's a tough one.
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Yeah.
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Well, uh Europe's a tough one.
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I mean, these people they make Germany makes great cars, Italians make great things, you know, goods.
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Their clothing are phenomenal.
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I heard their jewelry is equally as good.
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I mean, too.
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And then Switzerland makes great watches.
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I mean, they all have their their talents.
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The leather, the leather that's I'm telling you those cars, Ferrari.
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But here's the problem.
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Those are great things to have, but we know what the primary needs are with the first need.
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You gotta have some oil and gas made right to make that stuff.
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Which they have none.
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There is no oil and gas exploration in Western Europe and limited Eastern until you go to Russia or some of the the Baltics, you know, Azerbaijan or Afghanistan and Pakistan have oil, but they're not part of Europe's little union.
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Well, we've seen, you know, uh a lack of really good leadership in Europe, besides Maloney and it and in Italy, with who's a true rock star.
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You know, we're seeing Starmer and and um in the UK, we're seeing Macron and France really making you know unwise decisions, both from an economic standpoint and from a cultural standpoint.
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So Europe's in a lot of trouble right now, and when you see us instability like this that we're seeing in the in the um international.
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Order, you know, goodness, uh, I'd be I'd be short in Europe if I a little bit right now, aside from Italy, because Maloney's a rock star.
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But she is.
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She's she's great.
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But we need about five more Maloneys over there to really kind of get Europe back on the place because they're just not thinking strategically.
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They don't even think about the next 20 years.
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They're thinking about the next 20 minutes.
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And it's uh it's unfortunate to see such bad leadership over there right now.
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It's pretty bad.
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It's pretty bad.
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So here's here's a question that I have that I'm not so sure is easily uh to be answered right this second, because we don't know that we don't we don't know the consequences yet.
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We've seen oil prices go up.
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In a week, we're gonna have or yes.
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Now, by any any stretch of the imagination, a dollar a dollar was like a 30% increase in some of these markets, you know, states and what have you.
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So that's going to become uh an issue.
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So the CPI, the PPI, uh, even the core is gonna go up, transportation.
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What's going to happen with all the things we import, all the goods and services that we we can do here domestically, but all the things we still import that are solely dependent upon uh to keep our economy going.
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So here's something that's interesting.
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When you start to look at the U.S.
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steps up Iran strikes, his oil industry faces more upheaval.
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Okay.
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Let's go back to this whole thing again with oil.
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We know that there's a couple of things here that come into play that aren't always on the headlines.
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What happened in Venezuela is tied to Iran.
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These are two interlocking situations, right?
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Two scenarios here and two events that took place in order to be able to slow down the progressive growth of China on a on a on international basis.
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The biggest thing I have, like, okay, I'll meet me let me take a quote because this will kind of lead me into where I'm I'm going with this thing.
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When defense secretary Pete Hagseth made the comments during a press conference Tuesday, they suggested that the U.S.
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Israeli campaign that began on February 28th, which has been some time now, will still have some time to run, creating further disruption in the oil industry and global markets.
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Now we've seen oil come down, hit 119 or something crazy the other night.
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Holy cow.
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Now, if I done I don't know what 87, 88, which we were saying, oh my god, it's way down.
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No, dude, it was I still buy dollars a barrel a month ago.
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That's right.
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Okay, so we're still 30% higher.
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Now equate that into the economy, both global and domestic.
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That means everybody else is paying higher prices.
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That's going to be translated in those products being sold to us as higher prices.
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We still have the tear-up issue.
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We still have domestic policy of oil is still way up.
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We haven't opened up the SPR.
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Why we can't, because dementia patient Biden, the walking brain donor, which by the way, Guinness book, you're not gonna leave the people.
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Guinness book of world records called.
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Joe Biden made the list.
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He is in the Guinness Book of World Records for the only human being that donated a brain and couldn't even remember where he donated or when.
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That's why he's got dementia.
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Duh.
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So the walking dementia brain donor patient.
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Right.
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I had to do it.
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I had to say it.
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No, it's a smart true.
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I had to do it.
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So let's go back here to the to the topic.
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So Haig said it's like, oh, we're gonna continue to have a conflict here.
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We're gonna have a third carrier group head on over.
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And I'm like, well, we're spending over a billion dollars a day on the war.
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What's another 500 billion dollars a day for another carrier group?
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But translate that into inflation, man.
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Think about that.
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It's made, it's transported, distributed.
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Everything comes from oil and gas industry.
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And if it's up 30% here, it's up 30% all the way around the world.
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Well, and think about it just from a U.S.
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standpoint.
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When gas is more expensive, that means the trucking that takes groceries to grocery stores gets more expensive.
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When families have a harder time filling the pump, it means they make decisions.
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They don't go up to eat as much.
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They um they they restrict their their individual spending because you have to be able to continue to commute to get your job and take the kids to school and just do your regular errands.
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And so when everything has a 30% increase, it also it has a ripple effect on all the prices within, and it starts to actually cut spending in terms of of priorities.
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So people go to the doctor less, people live on uh a fewer harder decisions in terms of how to make ends meet for people who can't afford it.
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And so you see not only the ripple flight from inflation, but you see it from um spending going way down on things that kind of help keep our economy going.
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Um again, you mentioned tourism, it was it's so much more than tourism.
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It's about the um the the consumer economy.
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Um when that when those uh budgets get restricted, that consumer economy gets really going where what waitresses and and and bartenders and uh folks who are in the hospital industry have fewer hours to work and less tips because ultimately all that's coming out from from that from going to gas and oil.
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So um every pain, every dollar at the pump has a tremendous impact on the actual kind of consumption level within the United States.
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And so it's all it's inflationary, but it's also um negatively impactful in terms of spending.
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So uh it it has just such a massive riffle effect.
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What you said first and foremost, gas and oil is really important, and it is because it impacts every other industry in the country, whether it's insurance, whether it's banking, whether it's um, you know, uh sporting events, all of it is impacted by gas.
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And so with it with a 30% increase over time, that's going to have a massive impact on people's pocketbooks and really the impact on people's uh outlook for the economy.
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When you're gonna look at a potential downturn, people get really angry, and all of a sudden that's gonna have a political impact in Washington as well.
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Oh, a hundred percent.
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In fact, in fact, let me let me kind of go down this road.
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Yeah, but I can't even try to get through all some of this because some of the the comments that are coming out of the White House in the last couple of days seemed to sound like they were they were more resonant, uh, or certainly gives you the feeling that things were calming down a little bit.
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But the comments coming out today are are just the opposite.
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We are concerned that the at the apparent lack of of joint plan on how this war came quickly to be brought to a convincing conclusion.
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That's what the German chancellor said.
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They're like, wait a second, you just blew up half the Middle East, you've destroyed about a third of the world's economy.
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And literally, I mean, did you see the headlines?
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Hedge funds in the U.S.
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lost billions of dollars and gave back two years worth of profits.
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So it did everybody else around the world.
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I mean, my God, the stock markets were crashing.
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And so that's why the German guy, a German chancellor, the Frederick Mertzka goes, wait a second, you're telling me you're coming in here and destroying all this, and now you're saying, wait a second, hold on.
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You didn't have any kind of joint plan with any of us.
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You just did it, didn't even notify us.
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You just did it.
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And I think that's what's pissing people off a lot too.
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Is the administration was took it taking the kind of the high road that this is our fight, our war, you're not involved, then this will go away, which really I think the coalition of NATO was all about, right?
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The universe getting together and some kind of a unity.
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Um let me let me kind of go to some of the ramifications that worsening disruption here in the states.
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Oil refiners are gonna have less oil because obviously we just still import oil.
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You can't just turn a domestic tap on.
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That's right.
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We can't do it.
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It'll take months, and if you're lucky, it might take a year, and that's fast to be able to ramp up now.
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California's in a quegmire because they were under this crazy cap and trade climate change law.
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They've lost like three of the largest uh refineries and who's in charge of California.
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Uh this is due to a slip back here.
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Give me a sec.
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If um I was just gonna say Democrats, but also, but yes.
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Yeah, I know.
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I know.
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Look, anybody who thinks that climate change, since the U.S.
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is 0.004% of the greenhouse gases, which we need those so trees can live, uh, that we're gonna sit there and destroy an entire country and uh we're trying to destroy our entire economy.
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Yep.
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You've destroyed California with this unbelievably stupid idea that somehow you're gonna be the pillars of social justice and destroy 47 million people's livelihood.
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Do you understand what they've done?
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Well, this could this could quite mark into a national uh issue if this thing continues to go on in Iran continues to fight back, and now they've got desalination uh facilities are being destroyed, so there's no water in like six different Gulf countries.
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There's no oil being pumped, there's no fuel being just uh refined, so now the cars can't work working in.
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I mean, it's it's this is bad.
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That's right.
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Like this is bad.
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And I love Trump, and I've always been supportive.
18:30
And I'm like, but maybe you kind of should have let those neighbors know that you were gonna destroy their economy with this because oil.
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So here it is, addressing concerns about storing energies.
18:42
Trump said that the U.S.
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Navy will escort tankers to maintain a steady oil supply through the Strait of Harmoz.
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And that's right.
18:48
That should have been talked about a week ago.
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Then a lot of this stuff would not have happened.
18:52
I mean, it's really about effective communication anyway.
18:55
I mean, uh, you're a PR guy.
18:57
Yeah.
18:57
Doesn't communicate come somewhere into the top five things we should do when we're trying to like let people know stuff.
19:02
I thought I, you know, I honestly think part of this is the president seeing the uh mistakes from Iraq in 2003 and trying to go the opposite direction.
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Um, you know, President Bush rightly or wrongly spent, you know, a year kind of making the case for Iraq.
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And so everyone wasn't surprised when it happened.
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So I think there's a lot of time for discussion, you know, aside from the military buildup in the Middle East, the pres President Trump was doing, it still seemed like a surprise that the attack actually happened.
19:31
And so, you know, some of those contingency plans probably weren't put into place because I think a lot of people just weren't necessarily prepared.
19:38
Um, we saw the the articles of uh folks being strained over in the Middle East because the State Department just wasn't ready for extraction.
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So even when our own government, who's working with the president on that, couldn't get couldn't keep up.
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I think it's the allies were certainly um, you know, playing catch up.
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Um President Trump's a game changer.
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He does not play by normal rules.
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So that get
20:00
That gets baked into the cake, and we all have to play catch up to that.
20:03
Um, but uh yeah, you know, having allies is important to this, and you know, uh, I think people still kind of keep up with the president because they know um America's still the best option in terms of freedom and opportunity in the world.
20:18
And so even when our allies may be getting, you know, second-handed information when it comes to global initiatives, you know, uh that they've got it, they've got to stay stay intact because ultimately that this is where where things are going.
20:31
So um, I think it's uh incumbent on all of our allies to to be helpful and figure out how we can kind of get through this because ultimately that's the best way our you know economy rebounds, but also um how trade and international relationships continue to flourish.
20:48
That's well said.
20:49
That's well said.
20:50
Oh, the problem is is what we could do it at 90 dollar barrel of oil.
20:53
Huh.
20:54
We got to get it down.
20:55
Wow.
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Production.
20:57
I mean, uh I I was encouraged, you know, it I wasn't asset production, like good domestic fruit.
21:03
Well yeah, Venezuela has more oil and um natural resources than the Middle East.
21:10
And you know, that's that's becoming a more stable ally for the U.S.
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after our work um getting Maduro out uh two months ago.
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So, you know, I like you said you're exactly right.
21:22
It takes months to turn these things on.
21:24
It takes a long time to kind of create crit production.
21:26
I have no idea what the infrastructure is like in Venezuela for um oil extraction, aside from the fact that I know that a lot of it is going to China.
21:32
A lot of people but if you trail the infrastructure to re um reorient that towards um, you know, the Americas, well, okay, that could that could actually lower prices quickly.
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But um, you know, it takes a lot of effort in and work with private sector.
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I'm sure our um, you know, the oil and gas industry would be would love to be helpful in terms of getting that production going.
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And so um, you know, relying on the private markets of America, which are the best in the world to get in there and do that, I think is something that can actually lead to that.
22:02
But it's gonna be a transition for a little bit because it just it has to be.
22:06
But yeah, uh I'd rather have 90 oil than 150 oil, but ultimately we gotta get it back down to the 70s and 80s to really kind of see the economy humming.
22:15
Yeah, and even at 70 bucks, we can make money on domestic oil reduction.
22:18
Right, everybody's making money.
22:19
Right.
22:19
So Bright Crew Clindo uh just a hair under 120 a barrel on early Monday, a couple days ago.
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And then now we're down to about what that 90 dollars level on that brand.
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And then I think uh U.S.
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is is around 87.
22:33
Here's what's interesting.
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Oil is still 50% higher than the start of the year.
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Three months ago.
22:40
Wow.
22:40
Did you know that?
22:41
No, 50%.
22:42
Yeah.
22:42
Over the year?
22:44
No, just in since of the yeah, so yeah.
22:46
Yeah, first of the year.
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Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and United uh Arid Emirates, UAE, and Kuwait have lowered their collective output by nearly seven million barrels a day.
22:57
Okay.
22:58
That's that is massive when you think about the global, especially in their world because they need that money.
23:04
You know, they're they're like any other government, they they spend, right?
23:07
They need that money.
23:08
There's little sign the Hormuz uh straight can be opened quickly without at least a complete pause in hostilities because there's no insurance and nobody's gonna risk that.
23:18
And so when the chief executive officer uh Saudi Arabco, if you again look up Aramco Big Company, called the disruption the biggest crisis in the reasons oil and gas history in history.
23:28
Uh I don't think he was joking.
23:30
Well, let's not forget um gas blends.
23:33
When summer blends come out, they're more expensive.
23:36
And so we're hitting uh we're March, April, so we're getting into warmer temperatures.
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So the so the um refineries are going to be making summer blends, which are actually about 30 to 40 cents more expensive on average than you know, winter blends.
23:49
So not only are we looking at an increase from the market, we're looking at an increase of actual gas blends.
23:54
So we need to take that into account too as we're looking into the travel summer months and how expensive that's going to be.
24:01
Yeah, that is that is it.
24:03
Um let's uh let's do this.
24:07
Let's let's talk a little bit about the economy in general, how this is gonna affect elections.
24:15
Let's do that for about two minutes, right?
24:17
I know you've got to go to another appointment, and even though our show is uh nearly an hour long.
24:21
Um we got yeah, you'll be back.
24:24
That's right, you'll be back.
24:25
So and we'll finish part two on this, but let's just dive into the elections now and then we'll finish it.
24:31
Um how bad is this gonna be?
24:34
Could or could it be affecting us with these higher prices?
24:37
I heard this word affordability once is becoming a little more clearvoyant in the uh young people's telepathic democratic, progressive socialist minds and their way of thinking.
24:49
I'm not sure it all resonates in reality, but it resonates with them.
24:53
Yep.
24:53
And especially at the voter box.
24:54
Yep.
24:55
So what's gonna happen?
24:56
I think Republicans are looking at a shellacking right now if uh if Sir 20 as change, yeah, potentially 28, but uh, you know, 26 first.
25:05
Um, you know, this is the the thinnest majority um in the house in history.
25:11
And so um Speaker Johnson really only has one vote to give on any massive party party line vote.
25:17
So it's already precarious for Republicans in the house.
25:20
I think Calci um has it at 80% chance of uh uh Democrats taking over the house.
25:25
I don't see a scenario, particularly if there's an economic downturn.
25:29
You know, people vote with their pocketbooks.
25:31
End of story.
25:31
Oh, that's a fact.
25:32
And so anybody that's upset about their lack of affordability or gas prices or anything else is going to absolutely take it out on the it's just you can't uh uh uh upend that trend, even as unpopular as Democrat policies are, and even as unpopular as Democrats are, when people feel paid at the pump and people could feel pain in their pocketbooks, they're going to make a change in the in their voting.
25:54
And so I think the House is very, very um unlikely to stay in Republican hands.
25:59
The Senate is a little more of a challenge because there's just so many seats.
26:03
But, you know, depending on what happens in this primary, the Texas race becomes a little more interesting.
26:08
I actually think even if Paxton wins this this nomination, I think Texas is still red.
26:11
I I think you know, a blue Texas has been a Democrat um, you know, fever dream for a long time.
26:17
And I just think Texas is still pretty red.
26:19
However, um, you know, corn is a surefire win for Republicans.
26:22
I think Paxton makes a we have to spend a little more money as Republicans, but we'll see how that works out.
26:28
Um but you know, Susan Collins in Maine is always a tough race.
26:32
But we're also seeing um, you know, uh new states are are coming in that that may not necessarily be on the radar for a lot of people.
26:38
Iowa, Alaska.
26:40
Um, there's several different paths for Republicans to um, you know, have to defend that aren't normal states.
26:46
And so if you start seeing a shift by a couple more points, um the whole the whole map changes.
26:52
And so that's gonna be a real challenge for them.
26:54
Okay.
26:55
Well, stay tuned.
26:56
We're gonna be right back, and we're gonna finish this dialogue on the election of 26 and 28.
27:02
There's a lot of things that are gonna affect it.
27:03
There always is, though, right?
27:04
Yeah kind of that.
27:06
But this is probably one of the most uh localized with a demographic to 18 to 36.
27:12
They they don't really trust Israel these days.
27:15
They're not crazy about wars, they don't have affordability, and quite honestly, they just don't like the Republican Party's agenda for all the reasons why that, plus more.
27:24
So we'll be right back.
27:25
And we're back on the record here in just a couple of minutes.
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33:05
Welcome back, everybody.
33:07
So we're in the second half of the show here.
33:09
And thank you so much for joining us.
33:11
This is on the record with Christian Briggs and my guest host, Christopher Walker, who used to be chief of staff of Senator Thompson back in the day.
33:18
So we're going to talk a little bit about, well, then we'll talk a lot of it, but we started a little bit on the Iranian conflict and how that might affect some of the general elections.
33:26
And you just made a comment uh in break here.
33:29
What did you say about the white house that quit talking about mass deportation?
33:33
Chase says the House Republicans.
33:35
I guess that was a report from Axios.
33:37
So we're seeing, you know, a continued um reality hitting on promise um policy promises.
33:47
And uh, you know, whether it's uh mass deportations, tariff revenue, or anything else, um, you know, uh we're seeing the sense of governing uh meaning the reality from from campaign promises.
34:01
And unfortunately, I think that's gonna have an impact on politics.
34:04
We've seen people on the right continue to complain about the Iranian invasion and um, you know, the the quote unquote broken promises.
34:12
I don't agree with that narrative necessarily because actually governing is very hard, and I think the president's intentions are good, but uh it's another kind of headline that allows people who want to see a negative side of of the Trump administration to add another layer to what they see as a broken promise.
34:29
I don't again, I don't agree with that, but I think that's gonna be a narrative that's gonna be floating out there.
34:34
Yeah.
34:36
That's a tough one because this oil thing and this uh Israel thing, and let's just go over the top five things right now that are could affect this election 26 and really carry over to 28.
34:49
First, we've got that big beautiful bill, which a lot of people still aren't fully behind yet.
34:55
They don't understand it.
34:56
There are some great carve outs in it, but there's some craziness in it, too, about deficit spending, increasing the debt overall, and it been help us on these big tax refunds if the oil is going to be at 90 bucks a barrel or 85 dollars a barrel.
35:08
Do you realize that oil's up 55% this year already?
35:11
Just being five percent this year.
35:13
So there's one cow uh caveat that's good or bad, how you want to play it.
35:17
Number two, which is interesting, is the alliance that we have with Israel.
35:21
I mean, it's kind of like Lindsay Graham said yesterday.
35:23
I'm not, I'm not pro-America, I'm pro-Israel.
35:26
That's or something that's some mirrored to that.
35:29
I was like, shosh, I saw that headlines stop me.
35:31
My loyalty is with Israel.
35:34
What happened to the United States?
35:35
Last night checked, we are we in the United States?
35:37
You know, George Dalt, when he was Secretary of State would uh, you know, Reagan's Secretary of State, when he would um bring in new ambassadors to his office before they would go to their mission, he would point to the map and say, Who do you represent?
35:52
And a lot of these ambassadors would point to the country they were going to, and he says, No, you represent the United States.
35:58
Uh Lindsay Graham could learn that lesson from George Saltz right now.
36:02
That's uh uh that's a stunning statement.
36:05
Um, you know, Israel's an ally, but so is the so is Great Britain, so is France, so is Japan.
36:11
Um, you know, you don't hear them say the same things to that degree to our other allies.
36:16
So it's just it's odd.
36:17
It seems um it's it's creating a narrative for people who are anti-Israel to kind of latch on to when it's unnecessary.
36:25
It just there's such an over um overzealousness on it that I just I think it's perpetuating um the narrative of people who are under 40 who just don't like Israel and anti-semitism on the rise.
36:37
And this is something we need to address because it's it's bad for our country, it's bad for our our thought processes as a nation, and we've got it, we're about to address it.
36:44
Got it.
36:44
Yeah, I got dressed it.
36:46
So Thomas Massey is super popular with that 18 to 36-year-old crowd.
36:52
They love him.
36:53
Authenticate, authentic is the way he comes across.
36:57
Right?
36:57
He doesn't pander to any administration, any party.
37:01
He is his own man, he's his own boss, he's his own mouthpiece.
37:05
Right.
37:05
And he's his own speech writer.
37:07
Yeah.
37:07
And it is being embraced by one of the largest voting demographics in history.
37:12
I would I would say this to any candidate.
37:14
I know a lot of people listen to my show.
37:16
So whether you're running or you're or you're about to run, maybe you're not quite in the cycle house number of Nora Senate.
37:21
Be weary of that, okay.
37:24
Go and look at what how how the young people are starting to address these topics.
37:28
Affordability.
37:29
Can you afford a house in any market?
37:31
I mean, I couldn't afford my house that I bought 20, you know, 10 years ago right now if I wanted to.
37:36
Um, you know, uh, Thomas Massey is tapping into something that I think um is actually something that Trump did was uh tapping into that authenticity, talking to voters and not pandering to them.
37:47
And it's something that uh Trump mastered really well and still does, and Thomas Massey's doing that.
37:53
So, you know, a lot of members of the house are concerned to go against the president on a lot of things because they're afraid to be Liz Cheney's.
38:00
Um the president's trying to do that against Thomas Massey, but Thomas has such a um connection with his voters because he's been talking to them for so long and built in building that network.
38:11
I I think they're I think he's gonna be he's gonna be more popular and win irrespective of a Trump endorsement against him, which is unusual in the GOP primary right now.
38:18
Trump endorsed against you, you're usually gonna lose.
38:21
But uh, I think Massey's gonna be fine because he's got that relationship with his voters.
38:25
And his voters are, you know, it's a small subset of the country.
38:27
It's one congressional district.
38:29
Yeah, that's kind of what I'm thinking too.
38:31
Um that Massey is gonna come out as being kind of the the uh the unicorn, and he's gonna draw a lot of voters his direction.
38:39
And when Massey says I like this guy or I like this woman for running in various positions, they're gonna take notice of that.
38:46
Yeah.
38:46
Okay.
38:47
Absolutely.
38:48
Well, what about the Kentucky race?
38:50
Well, there's a big center race there right now.
38:52
And and I think everything we can look about Kentucky, everything needs to be looked out of the prison too of Andy Bashir, the Kentucky's governor.
38:58
He's a Democrat.
38:58
He's very, but he's very popular at Kentucky.
39:01
And um, you know, there's there's rumors of presidential ambitions from him, and he could be kind of a moderate Democrat, uh, if that exists anymore.
39:09
Um, that would look like the dual Clinton.
39:12
Right, right.
39:12
Yeah, exactly.
39:12
Yeah, that looks to kind of be a moderating voice on you know the left that's gotten crazier and crazier.
39:19
Um, so everything in Kentucky is always being looked at through the Bashir lens.
39:24
Um, Massey is kind of uh counterbalance to that.
39:27
And what we're seeing this year is a Senate race right now.
39:30
You've got um Andy Barr, Kentucky from like uh member um uh from uh Lexington, um, Daniel Cameron who ran for government before was former state AG um rising up and commer there, and then Nate Morris, who um is kind of got the backing of some of the MAGA crew, but interestingly enough, both uh Morris and Andy um kind of went and get an endorse Massey's uh primary opponent, and their numbers have dropped since they did it.
39:56
So again, Tip O'Neill saying that all politics is local.
39:59
I think that's really.
40:00
Um showing through in Kentucky, where taking a national trend or a Twitter trend and applying it to your state politics may not necessarily be the best move.
40:09
So Cameron's been playing that pretty well to date.
40:12
And uh he better coming on top just because of that.
40:15
Okay, well, that makes sense.
40:16
So we'll see how that run goes.
40:18
What about uh Tillis' seat there in North Carolina?
40:21
That's tough.
40:22
Um, you know, we've got uh a very popular Democrat governor Roy Cooper running against Michael Watley, uh, Michael Wadley, former RNC chair and uh good guy, you and I both know him, and uh, you know, he did a great job at the RNC and uh is a consummate um you know all-star candidate.
40:40
Um, but I think North Carolina is turning a little purple, um, a little uh bluish purple right now.
40:47
And uh Cooper is incredibly popular.
40:49
He had two, you know, a two-term governor in the state coming off a relatively um, you know, uh uncontroversial tenure.
41:01
Obviously, the the Charlotte uh train murder is uh something that I think people are looking at and seeing his leniency on crime, I think should be something that Republicans run against him on.
41:09
We've seen the RNC and others kind of working on that already.
41:12
So there's a there's a shot there for Wadley.
41:14
The Pova environment to me is is tough there.
41:17
But uh, you know, if you're cheering for Republicans, you know, Watley's Watley's gotta be the Watley's the nominee, we gotta help him through.
41:24
But uh I think the wins in that state are tough.
41:26
But you know, the president's always been able to kind of circumvent some of that.
41:29
Maybe there's some K1 we can have there for Watley too.
41:32
Oh, let's hope so.
41:33
So if we go back and we start to look at how the House is going to get made up, and if the Iranian conflict continues, they could should the dynamics both in the House and the Senate, possibly in 26.
41:44
What's your thoughts?
41:45
Oh, goodness.
41:46
Um, economy, economy, economy.
41:48
So um it's always the economy.
41:50
If we see a downward trend um, you know, economically, I just I think uh, you know, we we talked about this earlier.
41:57
Um, you know, it it's going to negatively impact uh the party in charge, and that's Republicans.
42:02
Um Republicans have done a good job um show showing that you know the Democrats have tried very hard to say it's a Republican shutdown of DHS right now, it's not true people know that.
42:10
So social media and other outlets are kind of being able to kind of countermand the the um the uh national narrative from national media, but um in this case, I think uh uh affordability.
42:23
We talked about that as uh the number one issue out there.
42:26
If people feel pensions in their pocketbooks, people feel like they're not able to afford the things that they were able to, let alone a house.
42:31
Um they're gonna come down hard on the incoming party, and that's unfortunately the one with where the president um and that's Republicans.
42:37
So any kind of uh questionable race, add a couple points to the final uh number there.
42:44
That could be a pretty high number for the House seats, and it could be very dangerous for the Senate too.
42:50
Can you imagine losing the Senate and the House?
42:53
We shouldn't happen.
42:54
We shouldn't because the the numbers are so high, but you've got Susan Collins in Maine, that's always gonna be a tough race.
43:00
You've got Alaska, you've got Iowa, that are probably not necessarily um normal swing states, but in this year they're they're kind of being rumbled to be swing states.
43:09
Um you've got Texas, where again depends on that on that primary, how that shakes out.
43:13
If Cordon wins, we should be fine.
43:14
If Paxton wins it'll be more expensive again, we should be fine.
43:17
Um you've got North Toronto, you've got Georgia, yeah.
43:20
Um Michigan, which is you know, probably leaning more dim.
43:23
So Yeah, we're gonna the Virginia House uh w when they redistricted everything in the state when the state balls cut back into that.
43:30
You know, that crazy, what was her name?
43:32
The governor?
43:33
Abby uh Spamberger.
43:34
Yeah, she's crazy.
43:35
Yeah.
43:35
Well, she would she ran as a moderate, which is why I say Democrat moderates made and may not be real because obviously we've seen every Democrat who runs as a moderate, governs as a far left liberal.
43:46
I mean, she raised what, 20-something taxes on her first day?
43:49
First day.
43:49
Um redistrict everything.
43:51
We lost nine seats.
43:52
Yeah.
43:52
Nine seats in a house.
43:54
You know, this midterm redistricting was, you know, kind of a good idea on paper, but probably wasn't well thought out.
43:59
Uh, you know, yes, Texas might be a good, but now California and and uh, you know, Democrats are uh unfortunately, I think a lot better at gerrymandering the Republicans.
44:08
We try to still play fair and they don't.
44:10
So excuse me.
44:12
So I think in that regard, we've we've got a lot of work to do there.
44:15
Um, but uh it got it goes to the broader point that I think the house is in real jeopardy, and uh, you know, we've got to get those members.
44:22
But I think, you know, I feel like I'm being overly negative.
44:26
I would like to say there's always a fight of chance.
44:28
The RNC's got hundreds of millions of dollars in and in reserves ready for this campaign.
44:33
We've got a president who um can buck trends constantly.
44:37
I just never count him out on any type of narrative fight.
44:41
Um, and you know, hopefully people will see that Democrats aren't moderate.
44:45
I mean, Abigail Spamaker is a perfect example of someone saying something and doing another.
44:50
So hopefully voters are smarter than that.
44:52
But usually we're counting on people who don't really pay attention to politics who vote at the last minute that's gonna she would even get in.
44:58
She shouldn't have.
44:59
She shouldn't have.
45:00
It's crazy.
45:00
But you know, again, Republicans have an issue in terms of not voter registration, but voter education.
45:08
We're not good at telling people why they should be Republicans.
45:11
And it's not beyond it.
45:12
A lot of it's support for the president, and that's understandable and great, but it's it's bigger than that.
45:16
We've got to get into a place where we're telling people more about why they should be voting for it, not just for a person, but for policies and ideas, and it's not we're not doing that well right now.
45:25
Yeah.
45:26
Yeah, apparently not.
45:27
Okay, so that leads me back down to the to the road here 26.
45:31
And how many seats are we gonna lose?
45:34
Um minimum 10.
45:36
Oh, goodness, yeah.
45:37
My friends, my friends in the GOP will be probably mad at me, but I I could see it be, you know, 20, maybe 30.
45:43
Um, you know, it's gonna be it's gonna be a big number, I think.
45:46
Senate maybe if trends if trends continue.
45:48
If trends can Senate will keep.
45:50
I think there's a very decent possibility we could have 50-50, which still becomes a republic.
45:55
Yeah, as JD Vance is the tiebreaker, but I could see us going back to the 55th century.
45:59
Last time that happened was 2000.
46:01
So it'd be very interesting to see that shake out.
46:04
I think it's possible.
46:05
Okay, so we go back to that now.
46:07
28, who's our candidate?
46:09
We know AOC's gonna have a ring somewhere.
46:11
Uh she wants a ring on her finger.
46:13
She wants to get married to whoever that lead that lead is who's the Republican candidate or the Democrat candidate.
46:19
Adam, which one doors?
46:20
Well, it don't matter to me because I'm not so sure I'm excited about either one of these these days.
46:24
So well I mean what happened to our what happened to um let's vote for Pedro.
46:28
Remember that t-shirt in 20 years there?
46:29
Yeah, it's a great movie.
46:30
Yeah, it's a good movie.
46:31
So who?
46:32
Um, well, but besides Pedro, um, you know, Republicans have Who's a national who isn't illegal?
46:39
He's legal.
46:40
That's right.
46:40
I know he can't run for president, but maybe his kids will, you know, Napoleon Dynamite.
46:43
That's uh money.
46:46
Uh well, we'll figure it, well, you know, that that was a happy ending.
46:48
So maybe we'll get a happy ending here.
46:50
Okay.
46:50
Um, but uh, you know, I think um Republicans, you know, Sarah Huckabee Sanders said today, in fact, that uh the Republican nomination is wide open.
47:00
It's that there's so this talk of JD versus Marco, I think is is a little premature.
47:06
Um while it's certainly the conversation that of like the hyper online, I think it's not necessarily there yet, which one means it's indicative that Sarah's talked about running herself.
47:17
And two, I think there's others that are gonna be getting in the race.
47:20
We don't know yet where that's all gonna shake out.
47:21
I could see a primary of 10 to 15, you know, candidates that all might be interesting, and I think people will be open-minded about it.
47:28
Most especially, I think President Trump will be open-minded about it.
47:31
I don't think he's got a horse in mind, and I don't think he is um You don't think he's JD all the way.
47:37
No, um, because I don't one, you know, that doesn't make good TV.
47:42
And that sounds crazy to say, but honestly, a lot of this is about the process and picking the right candidate.
47:49
And I think the president really does care about um, you know, having the the a discussion with America about it.
47:56
I don't think and we saw it at the Democrats last year, right?
47:59
Um the idea that uh a coronation of somebody when Joe Biden dropped out was not a success for them.
48:04
So coordination for Republicans or JD Vance is probably not a success for us either.
48:08
We don't know who the best candidate will be yet.
48:10
Um I think a lot of that's gonna shake out, and I think there's gonna be a lot of people.
48:14
And I think the president will have a very um direct role in it.
48:18
I can I totally could see a scenario where we're gonna have a apprentice like your fiery um right process.
48:25
But I would also argue that if I'm a candidate, I might um, you know, uh choose not to participate in that or in my own campaign.
48:34
But uh, you know, if you want to be the next president, you have to kind of have some independence, and I think that's gonna be something somebody's gonna look for.
48:42
My thought is this.
48:46
Unless we start to work with in this context of affordability, unless we start to unlock the hidden discrepancies that are vastly under underestimated with the communication that we have.
49:02
We have deficiency in communication to all voters.
49:05
I might get a little bit of from each demographic, but we should be getting the message to everybody so they can clearly understand.
49:11
Okay, I either like it or I don't.
49:13
But when they don't even understand what we're trying to say, they're just gonna walk away anyway.
49:18
That's right.
49:18
So we have to get this communication of messaging to a point where, and we got a quick flipping our minds on a Monday, Tuesday when I mean look at look at the administration.
49:30
Terror's bad tariffs good, terrorists good, terrorists bad.
49:34
Yeah, Supreme Court say terrorists bath.
49:36
Okay.
49:37
Uh now this Iran thing.
49:40
We're sitting here destroying the entire European the Asian, yeah, the United States' economy.
49:47
Markets were crashing just last week, a few days ago, in fact.
49:51
And then we're like, oh, we won the war.
49:53
What war?
49:54
What war are we looking at?
49:55
We were where's the enemy?
49:56
Is it is it the entire Middle East because they're all getting bombarded.
50:00
So I'm just like trying to figure out what messaging does Republicans come out now that are running because you're talking about primaries in a matter of of just a few weeks for some of these guys.
50:11
Well, Texas already had theirs, you know, last week.
50:13
That's right.
50:14
So yeah.
50:14
Yeah, yeah.
50:15
So now we've got Kentucky in uh May, May uh 17th, something something I think that's what it is.
50:20
So that's coming around the corner.
50:22
And then you've got the big one, the big one in November.
50:24
Yeah.
50:24
For the how uh yeah.
50:26
Everybody being re-elected, hopefully, or not.
50:29
It's uh I just I don't envy Speaker Johnson and his role of trying to keep the house in Republican hands.
50:35
We've got a lot of uh a lot of work to do.
50:38
But you're right on the messaging.
50:40
I I think Republicans have fallen down the rabbit hole of believing um I hate to I I don't want to attack conservative media per se, but I I think we become very comfortable with the idea of only listening to an echo chamber.
50:54
Yeah.
50:55
And we think that somehow uh most of America is listening to what we, you know, have the constant um, you know, kind of uh bias, uh um confirmate but confirmation bias that's happening uh on on the media we consume when most people don't listen to conservative podcasts or don't, you know, um deal with kind of conservative media overall.
51:14
And I think we've kind of gotten ourselves into a little bit of an Osha situation where we're as in the sample, we don't realize how people are getting information.
51:20
People under 40 are digesting stuff very differently, and we have a big media issue to deal with.
51:26
And it's not just talking about Republican stuff, but again, I think taxes and affordability and it's issues.
51:32
But candidates come and go, but issues remain.
51:35
And so the more that we can kind of talk about those those kitchen table issues that people vote on, the better Republicans will go in and be.
51:43
So it's less about you know the big beautiful bill or anything than it is kind of what people are feeling.
51:50
You know, Arthur Brooks, who uh, you know, former president of AEI, really, really smart guy, way smarter than me.
51:55
Um no, you're pretty smart because only well, but he told me a story.
51:59
Well, not told me a story, but I was listening to him give a speech and um how we work for AI a little bit.
52:03
I've I always like listened in directly too.
52:05
But he always liked to say that in communications and in persuasion, one is one is bigger than one million.
52:11
And what that means is telling stories always beats talking about data.
52:16
So when you're talking when Republicans talk about the big, beautiful bill, it's almost too big of an idea for a voter to get because they don't have any idea what's in it.
52:23
So you could talk about 15 different things in one bill, but that just kind of left that person's mind because they don't know what that means.
52:30
But if you say, you know, let me tell you a story about Christian Briggs and how you know he helps solve our our you know grocery problem because he did XYZ as a member of Congress.
52:39
Well, that means something to them, and that's how we need to communicate.
52:42
Right now we're talking macro, but we need to be honing in directly to individual voters and telling stories.
52:47
Yeah, I like that.
52:48
Think my name again.
52:49
I love I love other people talk about me.
52:51
Christian Briggs, they get what's our fistle for president?
52:53
Maybe you'll be the 28 nominee.
52:55
Well, yeah, they because I think they said they needed somebody that was because Barron's gonna run for president.
53:01
And I maybe I'll I'll I'll help him because I'm 6'8, he's about 6'9 or 6'10.
53:05
Trump and I have had those discussions before.
53:07
Make America tall again.
53:08
Make America tall again.
53:10
I remember when when I told President and I were talking, he's like, You're top.
53:13
Then you start telling about Baron's, oh, I know your son.
53:15
I've stood next to him.
53:16
He's uh he's a good looking tall kid and and rightly so because he's uh Trump's got beautiful kids, though.
53:21
He does, he does.
53:22
Well, maybe I thought Barron was gonna go take over Iran.
53:24
Isn't that the wasn't that the plan?
53:27
He might.
53:28
I mean, I don't know, Jerry's taking over the Bentley's, so does the son in law.
53:31
They got family orbit there.
53:32
That's right.
53:32
But I would say this Trump's got some great kids, very smart.
53:35
They love this country.
53:37
I know that because they they work hard to help the president and they help the administration.
53:40
But my question is goes back to the same thing is how do we get this messaging from inside the administration, inside our known politicians that are good people that want to do great things for this country because it's we're disconnecting a little bit from uh having people understand us, and we've only got listen, we got we're gonna be down here, we're getting close here.
54:01
So we only got a few more minutes here, Christopher.
54:03
Tell us how do we do this messaging?
54:05
Can I go back to one thing you said though?
54:07
What an okay, hold on.
54:08
Did I make a good point?
54:09
You did.
54:09
Oh, I did.
54:10
And I just I think it's important to reiterate because I think a lot of people can get lost in the president um in the in current politics.
54:17
You said how great his kids are.
54:19
You can always tell about how good a parent is by their kids.
54:21
That's a f and Donald Trump's kids are amazing people.
54:25
They are absolutely and um every single one of them to a T could have, you know, and with that kind of uh um white hawk, a spotlight of a childhood in every single one of them are are great people.
54:36
I've worked with a couple of them, and every single one of them are just really good people.
54:40
But Dingabody, the the poor guy got handed just nothing.
54:43
He got handled a deficit spending, huge debt, high inflation, uh a dollar that was collapsing around everywhere.
54:51
China was making massive inroads in all these different areas, and then boom, he's got to go, okay, I gotta get it done.
54:58
I got no choice.
54:59
But he got the ace in the hole.
55:01
The American people.
55:03
So he's got he's got a lot of us all say that a lot of us out of kind of working hard, innovating, creating new jobs, creating ideas.
55:11
You know, I've not seen a president so aggressively um uh focused on working with the private sector on trying to solve problems.
55:19
And I think um, you know, now he gets some criticism for being of overly big business.
55:24
I think some of that might be fair, but uh, you know, I I think he's a big business guy.
55:28
He sees the value of um American ingenuity coming through the private sector first and getting government out of the way and or providing a streamline for companies to really solve these problems.
55:40
So I think he's his head is in the right place in a lot of that, and I think the execution of that takes time, but also is um incredibly beneficial over the long haul.
55:50
Yeah, let's play the long game.
55:51
He is lent in the long game.
55:52
You play in the training game.
55:53
Yeah.
55:53
I was right documents about this five years ago, four years ago, three years ago, that says that the the US's mentality on investing.
56:02
I mean, that's investing in our children, it's investing in our infrastructure, it's investing in world politics, has to be taking a different approach.
56:08
We cannot expect results within a short period of time because it sometimes takes months, if not years to change culture's behavior, cultures, understanding, as well as technology driven initiatives take years to have fruits of the labor.
56:24
It takes years.
56:25
So if we can just bring the expectations down to a more manageable and realistic expectations, people will see that trouble will be one of the best presidents in history.
56:34
That's right.
56:34
And then maybe his kids will run.
56:35
I would vote for him.
56:37
So we're just gonna wrap it up, okay?
56:39
Because that's what we do.
56:40
We route up, we wrap, and then we wrap it up, and we're gonna say thank you for joining us on this segment uh on the record.
56:45
If you need any things or if you want to reach out, until then, thank you so much.
56:49
Thanks, Christopher, for joining.
56:51
Thank you, Christian.
56:51
All right, we'll be back again next Wednesday.
56:54
So stay tuned.