Latest / John’s Newsletter / The Genius of the Greenland Deal

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The Genius of the Greenland Deal · John’s Newsletter

• 0:00
  [music]
• 0:16
  SPEAKER_00: Good morning,
• 0:16
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• 2:12
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• 2:12
  SPEAKER_00: Right.
• 2:13
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• 2:15
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• 2:17
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• 2:19
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• 2:23
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• 2:25
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• 2:29
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• 2:31
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• 2:33
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• 2:35
  SPEAKER_00: And all this, we're only asking for 30 cents a day.
• 2:39
  SPEAKER_00: If you really believe in what we're doing, Mandela, shouldn't they give us the full 210 whack?
• 2:44
  SPEAKER_00: So that's what we're hoping for as we go along.
• 2:50
  SPEAKER_00: Moving on, though,
• 2:50
  SPEAKER_00: I want to talk about something that is interesting,
• 2:53
  SPEAKER_00: the genius of the Greenland deal.
• 2:56
  SPEAKER_00: It's really easy to get down because the major historical foreign policy event of
• 3:00
  SPEAKER_00: the second Trump administration is going to be the self-inflicted wound in Iran.
• 3:05
  SPEAKER_00: I don't think there's any doubt about that now.
• 3:08
  SPEAKER_00: And what a tragedy, as all self-inflicted wounds are.
• 3:11
  SPEAKER_00: Isn't that right, Mandela?
• 3:13
  SPEAKER_00: Are tragedies.
• 3:14
  SPEAKER_00: But a lot of good things have gone on as well that probably go unnoticed because
• 3:19
  SPEAKER_00: the headline is going to be so bad.
• 3:22
  SPEAKER_00: And what the Trump administration has done to actually make the NSS,
• 3:26
  SPEAKER_00: the National Security Strategy,
• 3:28
  SPEAKER_00: work is as notable as ignoring it over a Over Iran,
• 3:32
  SPEAKER_00: the Trump people took a fourth order priority by their own estimation.
• 3:36
  SPEAKER_00: The Middle East fought a war of choice,
• 3:38
  SPEAKER_00: thereby ruining the very good work they did with the National Security Strategy and
• 3:43
  SPEAKER_00: the National Defense Strategy, the NDS.
• 3:46
  SPEAKER_00: Which is the Secretary of War's version written primarily by my friend Bridge Colby.
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  SPEAKER_00: Which actually in realist terms outlined American priorities.
• 3:56
  SPEAKER_00: First, of course, is our own hemisphere.
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  SPEAKER_00: The United States uniquely among the great powers has an advantage of
• 4:03
  SPEAKER_00: a completed sphere of influence.
• 4:05
  SPEAKER_00: That's not something the Chinese can claim as they can't get by the first island chain.
• 4:10
  SPEAKER_00: That's not something the Russians can surely mention as they can't even get to Kiev.
• 4:15
  SPEAKER_00: And so America uniquely controls its own sphere of influence,
• 4:20
  SPEAKER_00: and they have really secured that in a positive way in the last term.
• 4:26
  SPEAKER_00: It's a pity about all the rest,
• 4:28
  SPEAKER_00: but let's not lose faith with what And when there was a deal over Greenland
• 4:32
  SPEAKER_00: and Greenland didn't become an American colony,
• 4:35
  SPEAKER_00: cue the sneering and the always wrong Guardian.
• 4:39
  SPEAKER_00: Let's remember,
• 4:40
  SPEAKER_00: what are the Guardian,
• 4:41
  SPEAKER_00: Zannie Minton Beddoes's ruination of The Economist,
• 4:45
  SPEAKER_00: the always wrong FT, what do these guys have in common?
• 4:48
  SPEAKER_00: They thought Angela Merkel was the bee's knees, along with Mr. Ferguson and Mr. Brammer.
• 4:54
  SPEAKER_00: Let's not forget the calls that these folks have made.
• 4:58
  SPEAKER_00: If you thought Angela Merkel was the savior of Western civilization,
• 5:03
  SPEAKER_00: as Minton Beddoes's economist put it,
• 5:05
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, hysteria for the lady, and you don't see her...
• 5:09
  SPEAKER_00: As the root cause and poster person for the decline of a self-regarding,
• 5:14
  SPEAKER_00: inept elite that somehow thinks it should still run things,
• 5:18
  SPEAKER_00: you've been out to lunch for 10 years.
• 5:20
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, I wrote just on X today.
• 5:23
  SPEAKER_00: My firm is...
• 5:24
  SPEAKER_00: And the miracle is rightly named but among this legion of people
• 5:39
  SPEAKER_00: Let's not listen to them again because they are so laughably wrong about how the world works.
• 5:47
  SPEAKER_00: Merkel was a woman who destroyed Germany's energy policy,
• 5:51
  SPEAKER_00: getting rid of the nukes over the Fukushima.
• 5:55
  SPEAKER_00: She's
• 6:04
  SPEAKER_00: had stagnant growth by moving to the mushy corporatist center,
• 6:08
  SPEAKER_00: and she let in a million refugees.
• 6:09
  SPEAKER_00: And when asked why by her own party she did this unilaterally,
• 6:13
  SPEAKER_00: she responded with a bumper sticker, we can do it.
• 6:17
  SPEAKER_00: And they thought this woman was a genius.
• 6:19
  SPEAKER_00: Perhaps they oughtn't to be listened to.
• 6:21
  SPEAKER_00: So the very people who thought Merkel was a genius are now sneering at
• 6:25
  SPEAKER_00: the Greenland deal that Trump did saying,
• 6:28
  SPEAKER_00: well, the United States didn't End up colonizing the place after all.
• 6:33
  SPEAKER_00: Trump overshot, ha ha ha, another sign of his lunacy.
• 6:37
  SPEAKER_00: This deal is little better than the old deal that had been cut over NATO.
• 6:42
  SPEAKER_00: Between Denmark,
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  SPEAKER_00: which owns Greenland for some reason still,
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  SPEAKER_00: even though they haven't protected it for decades,
• 6:49
  SPEAKER_00: let's be clear,
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  SPEAKER_00: the United States protects de facto Greenland,
• 6:52
  SPEAKER_00: not the Dutch,
• 6:54
  SPEAKER_00: or sorry, not the Danes, who have an army about the size of my football team.
• 6:59
  SPEAKER_00: They don't do that.
• 7:01
  SPEAKER_00: And the people of Greenland themselves are self-autonomous in terms of domestic issues.
• 7:06
  SPEAKER_00: They were involved in this deal, as was the United States.
• 7:10
  SPEAKER_00: So ha ha ha.
• 7:11
  SPEAKER_00: He didn't get what he wanted yet again.
• 7:13
  SPEAKER_00: Ha ha ha.
• 7:16
  SPEAKER_00: The details of the deal were not out yet.
• 7:18
  SPEAKER_00: Well, as always, the devil is in the detail.
• 7:21
  SPEAKER_00: The detail tell you whether an agreement is good or bad.
• 7:25
  SPEAKER_00: And the details have now emerged about Greenland.
• 7:28
  SPEAKER_00: And frankly, I think it's a genius deal.
• 7:31
  SPEAKER_00: I think it's a great deal.
• 7:32
  SPEAKER_00: And I think it's very much in line with how we've pegged Trump generally before.
• 7:38
  SPEAKER_00: He's a New York property developer.
• 7:40
  SPEAKER_00: That explains him.
• 7:41
  SPEAKER_00: People are a product of their own history.
• 7:44
  SPEAKER_00: That's why we have a neorealist view.
• 7:47
  SPEAKER_00: We are not mechanistic,
• 7:50
  SPEAKER_00: Nashian game theorists who just think it's somehow poli-sci oriented and
• 7:55
  SPEAKER_00: the state is billiard balls and nothing happens within the ball.
• 7:59
  SPEAKER_00: Rather, we think,
• 8:00
  SPEAKER_00: as Morgenthau did and the original realists did,
• 8:03
  SPEAKER_00: there's a strong element of psychology,
• 8:05
  SPEAKER_00: of biography, of history, which is our secret sauce analytically.
• 8:10
  SPEAKER_00: And we've said this before about Donald Trump, and let me use the European.
• 8:14
  SPEAKER_00: Because I was just with a bunch of smart Europeans in REM at my dinner and had
• 8:19
  SPEAKER_00: a really good conversation with them about this very point.
• 8:22
  SPEAKER_00: That people get Trump all wrong in this way
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  SPEAKER_00: because we haven't had any New York property developers running American foreign
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  SPEAKER_00: policy before.
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  SPEAKER_00: And that is a different kind of world to live in.
• 8:34
  SPEAKER_00: And that's exactly what we see.
• 8:37
  SPEAKER_00: Think of it this way.
• 8:38
  SPEAKER_00: Let's do a thought experiment.
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  SPEAKER_00: If you had told me before Donald Trump's time,
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  SPEAKER_00: and let's compare him with the sainted Obama,
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  SPEAKER_00: whoever European loves with his beautiful crisp suits,
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  SPEAKER_00: speaking in front of a teleprompter,
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  SPEAKER_00: in front of people, in complete rounded paragraphs, and everybody enjoying this.
• 8:58
  SPEAKER_00: And what do you see for this?
• 9:01
  SPEAKER_00: He asked the Europeans to spend more money on defense and to have better terms
• 9:06
  SPEAKER_00: of trade for the United States,
• 9:07
  SPEAKER_00: which had much lower tariff rates than Europe,
• 9:10
  SPEAKER_00: while the United States paid for a bunch of free-riding Europeans.
• 9:13
  SPEAKER_00: And what did they say, much as they loved Obama?
• 9:16
  SPEAKER_00: No, we're not going to do that.
• 9:19
  SPEAKER_00: And he accomplished nothing.
• 9:22
  SPEAKER_00: Nothing.
• 9:23
  SPEAKER_00: He didn't get a single thing he wanted.
• 9:25
  SPEAKER_00: Ask Secretary of Defense,
• 9:27
  SPEAKER_00: then Robert Gates,
• 9:28
  SPEAKER_00: who when he was leaving wrote a bitter and correct missive about the fact
• 9:32
  SPEAKER_00: that someday someone in Europe wasn't going to put up with this nonsense anymore.
• 9:36
  SPEAKER_00: Okay, now let's compare them to Donald Trump.
• 9:39
  SPEAKER_00: Boorish, vulgar, don't like his tone, don't like his manner.
• 9:42
  SPEAKER_00: Let me let you in on a secret.
• 9:43
  SPEAKER_00: Neither do I.
• 9:44
  SPEAKER_00: But who is more successful?
• 9:58
  SPEAKER_00: Obama, who accomplished nothing,
• 10:01
  SPEAKER_00: or another miracle figure,
• 10:03
  SPEAKER_00: or Donald Trump, who everyone in Europe hates pretty openly.
• 10:08
  SPEAKER_00: And yet look at what happened.
• 10:10
  SPEAKER_00: The Europeans, after being threatened and controlled, are Let's use the lower number.
• 10:14
  SPEAKER_00: There's a lot of accounting tricks that go into the top number.
• 10:16
  SPEAKER_00: Let's go with 3.5 as the number way up from the
• 10:28
  SPEAKER_00: Trump gets the moon.
• 10:29
  SPEAKER_00: That's how New York propaganda.
• 10:45
  SPEAKER_00: The tariffs situation is even more dramatic for all the chaos of it.
• 10:50
  SPEAKER_00: The terms of trade between Europe and the United States now dramatically favor
• 10:55
  SPEAKER_00: the United States after the Turnberry Agreement.
• 11:01
  SPEAKER_00: So who accomplished more?
• 11:06
  SPEAKER_00: The boorish Trump who everyone likes to sneer at at cocktail parties?
• 11:11
  SPEAKER_00: Or the Senate Obama who did and got absolutely nothing?
• 11:16
  SPEAKER_00: So that's the basis to the New York property developer model.
• 11:19
  SPEAKER_00: And Greenland is just the most recent example.
• 11:22
  SPEAKER_00: By demanding Greenland,
• 11:24
  SPEAKER_00: by saying we might go in and take Greenland, by saying we could make it a colony.
• 11:29
  SPEAKER_00: After all, it's part of our whole strategy to strengthen the Western Hemisphere.
• 11:34
  SPEAKER_00: By breaking the China...
• 11:36
  SPEAKER_00: He forces,
• 11:38
  SPEAKER_00: through leverage,
• 11:39
  SPEAKER_00: the Danes particularly,
• 11:41
  SPEAKER_00: to outline what it is they want in terms of Greenland,
• 11:45
  SPEAKER_00: along with talking to the Greenlanders themselves,
• 11:48
  SPEAKER_00: and then on the basis of that,
• 11:50
  SPEAKER_00: reaching a deal that,
• 11:51
  SPEAKER_00: when you look at these terms, very much favor the United States.
• 11:55
  SPEAKER_00: So what am I talking about the deal?
• 11:58
  SPEAKER_00: The old deal...
• 11:59
  SPEAKER_00: We know this was dependent on the US staying in NATO and could be abrogated in theory.
• 12:07
  SPEAKER_00: The New Deal says the United States has the complete ability to do what is necessary
• 12:13
  SPEAKER_00: in Greenland in order to secure both Danish Greenlander and American security.
• 12:20
  SPEAKER_00: We have the deal to do what is necessary.
• 12:22
  SPEAKER_00: Doesn't matter if we're in NATO.
• 12:24
  SPEAKER_00: Doesn't matter if we're outside of NATO.
• 12:26
  SPEAKER_00: And it's in perpetuity.
• 12:28
  SPEAKER_00: There is no time limit to this.
• 12:31
  SPEAKER_00: So we are the arbiter of security in Greenland in perpetuity.
• 12:38
  SPEAKER_00: That's point one.
• 12:39
  SPEAKER_00: Point two, no U.S. adversary can ever have a base in Greenland without U.S. approval.
• 12:47
  SPEAKER_00: Let me repeat that.
• 12:48
  SPEAKER_00: No U.S. adversary can ever have a base in Greenland without U.S. approval.
• 12:53
  SPEAKER_00: Well, ever is a pretty long time.
• 12:56
  SPEAKER_00: Goodbye to the pipe dreams of the Russians and the Chinese on the second point.
• 13:01
  SPEAKER_00: Seems pretty good to me.
• 13:02
  SPEAKER_00: Point number three, no U.S. adversary can make...
• 13:10
  SPEAKER_00: Important investments in Greenland without U.S.
• 13:13
  SPEAKER_00: approval can make,
• 13:14
  SPEAKER_00: and the phrasing is actually, no U.S.
• 13:16
  SPEAKER_00: adversary can make sensitive investments in Greenland,
• 13:20
  SPEAKER_00: that's rare earths, without U.S. approval.
• 13:23
  SPEAKER_00: So no basing without U.S.
• 13:25
  SPEAKER_00: approval forever, no sensitive investments without U.S. approval forever.
• 13:32
  SPEAKER_00: That seems to me a pretty good deal, and that seems to me a better deal than the old deal.
• 13:37
  SPEAKER_00: So it's in perpetuity.
• 13:39
  SPEAKER_00: We can do what is necessary in Greenland in order to secure its security.
• 13:44
  SPEAKER_00: No U.S. adversary can ever have a base in Greenland without American approval,
• 13:49
  SPEAKER_00: and no U.S.
• 13:49
  SPEAKER_00: adversary can make sensitive investments in Greenland without U.S. approval.
• 13:55
  SPEAKER_00: That's not nothing.
• 13:57
  SPEAKER_00: Further, this needs to be seen as part of what really Marco Rubio has taken the lead on.
• 14:02
  SPEAKER_00: That's for you, Terry.
• 14:04
  SPEAKER_00: In securing Western Hemisphere primacy,
• 14:07
  SPEAKER_00: again, the NSS and the NDS are right in saying the key to all this is that we get...
• 14:15
  SPEAKER_00: Dominance again in our hemisphere that we have this sphere of influence
• 14:18
  SPEAKER_00: that nobody else has and that this is a great and good thing for us.
• 14:24
  SPEAKER_00: And what have they done Venezuela brilliantly getting China out of Panama.
• 14:30
  SPEAKER_00: Which was, I think, Marco's greatest hour.
• 14:33
  SPEAKER_00: Again, by cajoling, threatening, etc.
• 14:35
  SPEAKER_00: We actually, and Senator Eric Schmidt and his gang got this right, read the treaty.
• 14:40
  SPEAKER_00: We didn't just hand over the Panama Canal.
• 14:42
  SPEAKER_00: We did it under certain conditions.
• 14:45
  SPEAKER_00: The primary condition is that no adversary of the U.S.
• 14:47
  SPEAKER_00: can control either the entrance to or the exit from the canal,
• 14:52
  SPEAKER_00: and China at the time was controlling both.
• 14:54
  SPEAKER_00: We reminded, not so gently, the Panamanians of this, and sure enough, the Chinese aren't.
• 15:01
  SPEAKER_00: We're managing and dealing with Cuba.
• 15:08
  SPEAKER_00: Mexico wants to sign an agreement on trade with the United States,
• 15:12
  SPEAKER_00: allowing for no transshipments.
• 15:14
  SPEAKER_00: This is a huge deal.
• 15:15
  SPEAKER_00: And finally, we have Greenland in the north.
• 15:17
  SPEAKER_00: So you're securing the hemisphere and your primacy in the hemisphere, and you're doing primacy.
• 15:30
  SPEAKER_00: Because as we've said before,
• 15:32
  SPEAKER_00: Mark Carney is going to find out that middle powers are like plowing through
• 15:36
  SPEAKER_00: a divider on a highway.
• 15:37
  SPEAKER_00: It's a middle road to nothing.
• 15:40
  SPEAKER_00: You can't use the combined heft of middle powers.
• 15:42
  SPEAKER_00: They don't have common interests,
• 15:43
  SPEAKER_00: common geography,
• 15:45
  SPEAKER_00: common anything, and they don't have the wherewithal to make their weight felt.
• 15:49
  SPEAKER_00: So far better,
• 15:50
  SPEAKER_00: by the way,
• 15:50
  SPEAKER_00: if Canada wants to do this and drift from the United States,
• 15:53
  SPEAKER_00: far better to do it through the Anglosphere, to do it through something.
• 15:56
  SPEAKER_00: I don't know why I'm giving Mark Carney advice, but I guess I am this morning.
• 16:00
  SPEAKER_00: I'm in a good mood.
• 16:02
  SPEAKER_00: Far better to work with UK countries.
• 16:06
  SPEAKER_00: And Australia and New Zealand to do that.
• 16:09
  SPEAKER_00: But this middle power thing is just,
• 16:10
  SPEAKER_00: Kearney's been fetid too many times at Davos and has drunk the Kool-Aid,
• 16:14
  SPEAKER_00: and that's going to rebound against them.
• 16:17
  SPEAKER_00: So this is just part of this broader Monroe Doctrine,
• 16:21
  SPEAKER_00: the Trump corollary to the Monroe Doctrine,
• 16:23
  SPEAKER_00: and it seems to me a very good deal indeed.
• 16:26
  SPEAKER_00: It's good for all.
• 16:27
  SPEAKER_00: Number one, the Danes get to keep their sovereignty.
• 16:32
  SPEAKER_00: The Danes, that's bottom line what they want.
• 16:34
  SPEAKER_00: They want the facade of owning Greenland, even though they haven't managed its defense for eons.
• 16:39
  SPEAKER_00: But they want to keep that facade.
• 16:41
  SPEAKER_00: They've got it.
• 16:42
  SPEAKER_00: Greenland wants the right to solve autonomy and internal matters.
• 16:46
  SPEAKER_00: And even if later they don't.
• 16:48
  SPEAKER_00: The Greenlanders signed on to the treaty.
• 16:54
  SPEAKER_00: So the independence question no longer vexes Washington.
• 16:59
  SPEAKER_00: And then three, the U.S. gets everything.
• 17:04
  SPEAKER_00: We get Greenland added forever to the sphere of influence.
• 17:10
  SPEAKER_00: The Danes get autonomy,
• 17:12
  SPEAKER_00: and the Greenlanders get control of what they have now without losing that either.
• 17:17
  SPEAKER_00: That's a win-win-win.
• 17:19
  SPEAKER_00: And again,
• 17:19
  SPEAKER_00: I don't think we should laugh at the New York property developer model,
• 17:24
  SPEAKER_00: because in this case, it's come up aces yet again.
• 17:27
  SPEAKER_00: It's very easy to laugh at this approach.
• 17:30
  SPEAKER_00: Breaking the China is not something that defeat diplomats who are Wilsonians to
• 17:35
  SPEAKER_00: the tips of their fingers like,
• 17:37
  SPEAKER_00: but we judge policies in a risk statement by their results.
• 17:41
  SPEAKER_00: And by its result, frankly, I'm sorry to make you move, Mandela, the Greenland deal is genius.
• 17:49
  SPEAKER_00: Thank you very much.
• 17:50
  SPEAKER_00: Very happy to defend the Greenland deal and talk about something nice for a change.
• 17:54
  SPEAKER_00: As I promised you, we will do a version of the speech I gave at Credit Agricole at REM.
• 17:59
  SPEAKER_00: Thank you so many of you for liking my picture in front of the residence Eisenhower,
• 18:03
  SPEAKER_00: which was a thriller.
• 18:04
  SPEAKER_00: We will keep faith with you.
• 18:05
  SPEAKER_00: Won't we, Taddo and Mandela?
• 18:06
  SPEAKER_00: The cats are united behind me.
• 18:07
  SPEAKER_00: Everybody take care.