Latest / Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast / Felix Prehn - What if the Selling Isn’t Over + Stock Market News 19 March 2025

Transcript

Felix Prehn - What if the Selling Isn’t Over + Stock Market News 19 March 2025 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Felix here and welcome to this live pre-market stream.
• 0:03
  Speaker 1: Winston was sitting on the edge of a seat there, if you saw him, and we've got a big day ahead, not just Fed news, but Winston's news that he sniffed out today.
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: But in all seriousness, I want to walk you through the bad data and then the good data, and then the opportunities, the secret, hidden opportunities, because there are opportunities here.
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: So let me share my screen with you.
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: You and I'll show you our outline here for today.
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: So we've got a lot of stuff to cover here.
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: If you're afraid of understanding the market, you better run away right now, because this is going to get deep and bloody and charty and with lots of data.
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: The Mark 7 are down 20%.
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: What the heck does that mean?
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: Lots of data.
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: The max seven are down 20%.
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: What the heck does that mean?
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: We are seeing the biggest de-risking I have ever seen in my time as an investor and trader, and the question is are you making the biggest mistake ever?
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: Financially, hardly anybody is bullish.
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: Hedge funds have sold the most in five years and there is a reason.
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: This could get a lot worse.
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: But this isn't a doom and gloom stream.
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: This is not one of those channels.
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: Instead, I want to show you the massive beds that inside us, in dark pools, the private exchanges you don't normally get access to, what they're doing and why things could, as I say, get a lot worse or and maybe we should take a green pen here could they get a lot better.
• 1:30
  Speaker 1: I want to also give you the secret opportunities that I'm seeing in the market right now.
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: If you want to learn what they are, write secret in the chat and I see that you're alive and well and you want to know.
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: And I promised you yesterday I promised you I would teach you when to know.
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: And I promised you yesterday, I promised you I would teach you when to buy stocks.
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: I will fulfill that promise today, if you bear with me for a few minutes as we help you better understand the market and do this sort of thing.
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: Like I used to sit in a morning meeting at 7am in an investment bank.
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: I hated it because it made me have to get out at six in the morning and the older, wiser people would walk us through what was happening that day, what was important to understand, and that's basically my mission here to do that with you, pre-market.
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: And then, of course, I try to give you as much educational stuff in between so you actually learn and get better and you don't need me anymore.
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: That's really the ultimate goal here, and that way we'll all be happy.
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: Lots of secrets there, amazing and brilliant.
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: The second thing you can, of course, do is smash the like button, which so far only 73 of you have wanted to do, maybe because things are looking a bit glum.
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: I get that.
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: I understand that.
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: So let's get cracking, shall we?
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: Ok, I'm going to hit you here with quite a bit of data, and feel free to take screenshots, because that way you'll remember, because I'm going to hit you with more data than you can remember.
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: So also, one of the reasons I like putting this out in the morning is it makes my thinking more structured.
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: It helps me make better decisions.
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: It helps me make my analysis better, so you are actually doing me a bit of a favor.
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: I'm probably doing this a bit more in depth than I would if I was just doing it for myself.
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: So thanks very much there, ronnie.
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: So it's Victoria's Secret.
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: Is that what you're thinking about?
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: Are they still around?
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: Are they still open?
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: I thought they were closing.
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: I saw there was a shop here that closed, skimpy, cheap underwear.
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: That's what they make.
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: Okay, the Magnificent Seven, or the Lagnificent Seven, as they're now known, the Mag Seven so the biggest 7 stocks out there they have really, really tanked and we are now at levels that we haven't seen retailing capital here since 2022 and previously to that, 2018.
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: So they're starting to look cheap, right.
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: So is that a bad thing?
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: Or is it just like, oh my God, they're going to keep going lower and lower and lower?
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: People are worried about that because they're the biggest stocks out there.
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: Now.
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: The companies on Wall Street, the fund managers, have literally they were in December.
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: They were so bullish in December.
• 3:58
  Speaker 1: After the Trump election, everyone's like we're going to get lower to being out of stocks.
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: The biggest rotation I've ever really seen.
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: I mean, is it bigger than 2001?
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: I think it might be bigger than 2001.
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: I haven't got a proper measuring tool here, but you get the idea it's a big shift.
• 4:34
  Speaker 1: So we've gone from like hooray to whoops right, very, very, very quickly.
• 4:38
  Speaker 1: The sound's still crackling.
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: I actually bought a $35 cable today and I messed for about three hours with the audio settings.
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: All right, weird, but thank you for letting me know, simon.
• 4:50
  Speaker 1: Some of you guys who are sound engineers, gave me some tips as well, and I've been trying to fix this.
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: Hopefully it's a little bit better today, but if not, I shall keep persevering and making it a better and better every single day.
• 5:07
  Speaker 1: Now the weird thing is you, you and me we're called retail.
• 5:08
  Speaker 1: Right, that's what the wall street looks at us.
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: They look as if the people they can take advantage of us, and we've been buying the dip at extraordinary levels.
• 5:18
  Speaker 1: Extraordinary levels and especially in.
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: That's the NASDAQ here.
• 5:24
  Speaker 1: This is the NASDAQ, so especially NASDAQ stocks.
• 5:27
  Speaker 1: So are we just buying the falling knife?
• 5:30
  Speaker 1: Are we exit liquidity for all those fund managers up here who are selling?
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: Is that what's going on here?
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: I kind of fear it is.
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: So we need to understand this better so we make better decisions going forward rather than being exit liquidity and then the bearishness out there is extraordinary.
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: I haven't seen anything like this when we haven't really had horrible news.
• 5:54
  Speaker 1: Only 19% of the market the professional market is bullish.
• 6:02
  Speaker 1: 19%.
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: That means that 81% are not bullish.
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: Extraordinary, isn't it?
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: We haven't had any majorly bad news.
• 6:12
  Speaker 1: No one's collapsed, no one's died.
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: There's no catastrophe.
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: The housing market hasn't tanked.
• 6:16
  Speaker 1: There hasn't been massive fraud as far as we're aware.
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: So it's like a sound gate filter issue or something says western uh crackled sometimes.
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: Okay, appreciate that guys, let me keep letting me know.
• 6:30
  Speaker 1: And and um setting yeah, I read about something like that today as well.
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: So we're trying.
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: We're trying literally um 35 dollars, poor us, today, for a USB cable.
• 6:40
  Speaker 1: Can you believe that you can charge it when you sell an audio USB cable?
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: It was probably just a normal USB cable, but good for them.
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: So what about some more bad times here?
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: Long short funds Do you know what that means?
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: Long means buy and short means they sell right.
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: So funds that are selling the market.
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: Well, we're at the lowest ratio of buy to sell.
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: So we're basically everybody is just sell, sell, sell, sell, sell right Since pre-2020.
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: Like, that was COVID, right, that was COVID.
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: Isn't that crazy?
• 7:17
  Speaker 1: We're in a worse setup right now than than in COVID.
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: This is where we talk about billionaires and cat pregnancies.
• 7:27
  Speaker 1: We'll get back to that in a moment.
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: She's looking very sweet and a little bit chubbier by the day.
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: So again, do they know something that we don't?
• 7:36
  Speaker 1: Should we therefore be hiding in the basement?
• 7:38
  Speaker 1: Well, let me frighten you a little.
• 7:42
  Speaker 1: We are right now 10% down, basically minus 10%.
• 7:47
  Speaker 1: We are right now 10% down, basically minus 10%.
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: Look at all the drawdowns.
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: We have these blue things down.
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: There are market dips.
• 7:54
  Speaker 1: Right, covid was 35%.
• 7:57
  Speaker 1: 2008 was 58% down, 2002 was minus 51%, 87% was 36%, the 70s was minus 48%.
• 8:06
  Speaker 1: This could get a lot worse, a lot worse.
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: This is nothing what we're seeing right now.
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: This is just a normal little blip.
• 8:13
  Speaker 1: So I'm frightening you yet I don't mean to.
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: I want to show you the opportunity, but first you need to understand really what's going on out there.
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: I was looking at dark pool trades and you can look those up, by the way, in Trade Vision, if you have that kind of inclination.
• 8:30
  Speaker 1: Literally, in Trade Vision, we show you all the dark pools for everything that's going on out there and you can see it literally live, as it happens, for everything out there.
• 8:38
  Speaker 1: Now, what's a dark pool?
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: It's a private exchange.
• 8:41
  Speaker 1: So if you're a big client, you're going to say to your broker don't put this one in the stock market, and you're going to say to your broker don't put this one in the stock market, then everybody will see that I'm selling a million shares of Tesla.
• 8:50
  Speaker 1: No, no, no, no, no.
• 8:50
  Speaker 1: Let's do this in private, shall we?
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: That's what dark pools are for, basically to hide data from you and me.
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: But we have the data.
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: So what's going on there?
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: Well, there's some pretty bearish trades here, like literally at the end of yesterday here there was someone still $3.2 million worth of board, rather put options, which is bearish like Tesla On Kavana, $1.1 million, on MSTR $1.4 million and NVIDIA $1.1 million.
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: These are all bearish trades.
• 9:25
  Speaker 1: And then, of course, a lot on the big indices.
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: But on the big stocks they're really, really, really going for it and that's, again, pretty rare to see.
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: So people are really turning bearish.
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: Now there is a little index called Economic Policy Uncertainty Index.
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: I told you this would be sexy.
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: What if they lower interest rates today?
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: They won't, absolutely no way.
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: They're going to do that today.
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: No, no, they're going to mumble something about market uncertainty and that'll be as good as it gets today, but they're not going to cut interest rates.
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: It's not going to happen.
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: Now.
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: I put $5 on that.
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: That's as much of a gambler as I am If you look at how many news articles are talking about.
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: We don't know what the economy is going to do.
• 10:11
  Speaker 1: We're right now sort of two thirds to the top of COVID.
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: I mean millions of people like just dying out there.
• 10:20
  Speaker 1: You know we all locked down Like what the heck is going on here.
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: Is this the global financial crisis, one of the biggest mortgage frauds in the history we've ever seen?
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: Is this 9-11 where we think we're under attack?
• 10:32
  Speaker 1: This is none of that.
• 10:33
  Speaker 1: This is just like Trump being Trump right.
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: So is this an overreaction?
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: And if you think back, do you wish, in hindsight, I would have bought at the bottom of the COVID market?
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: Do you wish you would have bought the dip at the bottom of the COVID market?
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: Do you wish you would have bought the dip at the very bottom of the market?
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: Let me know, write dip in the chat if you wish you had done that in hindsight.
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: Should we not be seeing this as an opportunity rather than a horrible risk, at least if we have a little bit longer horizon beyond tomorrow and the day after?
• 11:08
  Speaker 1: George is the first one who wants to buy the dip Dip, dip, dip.
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: Well then, what are you going to buy?
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: What are you going to buy?
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: How do you know what you're going to buy?
• 11:21
  Speaker 1: Well, you have to.
• 11:21
  Speaker 1: We're going to look at that in a moment.
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: I'll show you some opportunities that I'm seeing and I'll also show you when I'm going to be buying and what I'll be buying.
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: But if you actually want to learn the rules, like all you guys who wanted to buy the dip, how do you know when to buy the dip?
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: If you really want to understand that, you need to understand the patterns that drive the market, which look broadly, something like this Once you understand, how do I know when this is about to happen, how do I know when the dip's going to happen, how do I know when it's going to go back up and how do I know when it's going to come back down?
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: If you understand that, you can see the pattern.
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: It's like seeing the matrix numbers fall into place and you're like wow, how is it that I didn't know this?
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: How is it that nobody explained this to me?
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: That's what I thought, and I was first explained this to me by some lovely bankers.
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: I was like, really, that's it.
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: And they were like, yeah, that's it.
• 12:16
  Speaker 1: Why doesn't everybody know this?
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: And they're like, well, we don't really want people to know.
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: Like, why not?
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: We make a lot of money out of people who don't know what that people just buy stuff at the wrong moments.
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: It's exit liquidity for us and when we want to buy the selling in the wrong time.
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: It's amazing, right, and I was like it's a bit unethical, isn't it?
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: And they were like you know, you're in the wrong business, which is why I really probably didn't make a very good banker.
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: So if you want to learn that, learn exactly when these pivot moments happen because this is what it's about in the pattern go to phoenixfuncetalkscom.
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: Get free, watch a 15-minute masterclass.
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: That's it Like.
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: Leave this video right now.
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: Leave this video Like.
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: Very few people on YouTube tell you to leave the video.
• 12:56
  Speaker 1: Go and learn.
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: It's far more important than understanding today's news and what Papa Powell is going to say and so on.
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: It's that you master your skills.