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Political 'Mess' Is Clouding Strategy: Federated's Orlando · Bloomberg Intelligence

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  Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney, along
• 0:04
  Speaker 1: with my co host of Bonnie Quinn. Every business day
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  Speaker 1: we bring you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts,
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  Speaker 1: along with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets
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  Speaker 1: Podcast on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts,
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: and on Bloomberg dot com. Political risk that is something
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  Speaker 1: that all investors have to face, and it's coming front
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  Speaker 1: burner here as we get close to the election. What
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  Speaker 1: does it mean? What does the UH president's physical condition?
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  Speaker 1: How does this all factor into the calculus ford investor
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  Speaker 1: trying to gauge the future performance of the stock market.
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  Speaker 1: To get the latest, we welcome Fill Orlando, chief equity
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  Speaker 1: market strategists and ahead of the client portfolio management team
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  Speaker 1: at Federator Hermes. Sixty eight billion in equity under management,
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  Speaker 1: over six billion firm wide, so Federator Hermes is all
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  Speaker 1: over the markets. Phil, thanks so much for joining us here. Again,
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  Speaker 1: let's just try to digest what we've learned over the
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  Speaker 1: past seventy two hours about the president in his medical condition,
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  Speaker 1: what that might mean for I guess just kind of
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  Speaker 1: market view view for fiscal stimulus. How are you trying
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  Speaker 1: to discount all of this new information into your outlook? Well,
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  Speaker 1: in a word, it's a mess. Um. You try to
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  Speaker 1: process the news that we got a yes early Friday
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  Speaker 1: morning that the President and the First Lady and a
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  Speaker 1: number of staffers had tested positive. What does this mean? Um?
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  Speaker 1: Initially you say, well, is he going to be able
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  Speaker 1: to execute his duties? If not, then we've got to
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  Speaker 1: roll down to you know, the next in the chain
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  Speaker 1: and companion UH Pence after him, Speaker Pelosi after him, uh,
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  Speaker 1: et cetera. Then it's well, okay. If if he's doing okay, uh,
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  Speaker 1: what does that do to his ability to campaign? What
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  Speaker 1: does it do for these next two presidential debates coming
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  Speaker 1: up on October fifteen and October? Is he going to
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  Speaker 1: be clear to participate? Are they going to have to
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  Speaker 1: go remote? Are we gonna have to cancel them? So
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  Speaker 1: you've called in a question a number of issues in
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  Speaker 1: terms of governing. Are we going to be able to
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  Speaker 1: get this phase four fiscal UH stimulus package through the
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  Speaker 1: debate the election? Uh? Vice President Biden has tested negative,
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  Speaker 1: I believe twice, but you know he's a little out
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  Speaker 1: in years as well. I guess we've got to keep
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  Speaker 1: track to him to make sure he stays nice and healthy,
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  Speaker 1: so that there's a cloud of uncertainty over the entire
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  Speaker 1: process with a month ago ahead of the election, So
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  Speaker 1: it's it's, in a word, it's a mess. Well are
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  Speaker 1: you and your manager is then Phil spending more time
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  Speaker 1: is thinking about what a Biden victory and outright victory
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  Speaker 1: was sort of no you know, court action, what that
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  Speaker 1: might mean for markets. So we've been focused on that
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  Speaker 1: for for several months. Um and and the key issue
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  Speaker 1: is not so much the presidency, uh, but the Senate
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  Speaker 1: because the if you had a blue wave, as it were,
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  Speaker 1: if if the Democrats ran the table, a legislative mandate
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  Speaker 1: would would mean something materially different in terms of the
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  Speaker 1: change in fiscal policy and then impact on economic growth,
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  Speaker 1: corporate earnings growth, and stock prices as opposed to divided government.
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  Speaker 1: So we've developed a matrix to look at all of
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  Speaker 1: these different combinations and permutations and right now, uh, you know,
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  Speaker 1: it's a little too early to tell. To that point,
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  Speaker 1: there are two conflicting signals that of things that we
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  Speaker 1: watch pretty closely that are pointing in completely different directions.
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  Speaker 1: On the one hand, you've got the the betting markets,
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  Speaker 1: which in the immediate aftermath of President Trump's illness uh,
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  Speaker 1: surged in favor of Vice President Biden. I think there's
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  Speaker 1: like a sixty two percent chance that he's gonna win
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  Speaker 1: versus a thirty eight percent chance uh that the president
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  Speaker 1: is going to win. And and and that's the lowest
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  Speaker 1: number we've seen for the president a cycle yet. On
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  Speaker 1: the other signal is the performance of the SMP five
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  Speaker 1: hundred itself since the beginning of August, and that indicator
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  Speaker 1: right now is up about three and a half percent
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  Speaker 1: uh collectively, and historically when the SNP is positive during
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  Speaker 1: this period, that that typically signals that the incumbent party
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  Speaker 1: is going to win the election. So you've got two
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  Speaker 1: different signals pointing in completely different directions. Which one do
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  Speaker 1: we respect? How do we plan? So, Phil, do you
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  Speaker 1: expect given this messiness that you characterize as it relates
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  Speaker 1: to the president is health and the uh some members
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  Speaker 1: of Congress fiscal stimulus? Are you expecting any? Are you
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  Speaker 1: just saying this is so our expectations for fiscal stimulus?
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  Speaker 1: And you and I talked about this. We're high in July. Uh,
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  Speaker 1: They're they're very low. Right now that that while the
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  Speaker 1: numbers are narrowing, the Democrats and House have taken their
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  Speaker 1: offered their AFT down or about two point two trillion dollars,
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  Speaker 1: the Republicans in the Senator up to about one and
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  Speaker 1: a half trillion dollars. But while you can say, okay, well,
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  Speaker 1: let's split the difference, let's call it, you know, two
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  Speaker 1: trillion dollars and call it a day, that the two
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  Speaker 1: sides are very far apart on on three key issues.
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  Speaker 1: I think money uh for the cities and the states uh.
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  Speaker 1: The the idea of liability protection for businesses that have
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  Speaker 1: done the right thing to protect their their clients and
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  Speaker 1: their employees. And and the idea of this six dollar
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  Speaker 1: a week unemployment bonus extending that out through the end
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  Speaker 1: of January until we get some conceptual movement on some
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  Speaker 1: or all of those issues, I just don't see as
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  Speaker 1: being anywhere. Yeah, Phil, I suppose it's time to just
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  Speaker 1: to sit back and relax and wait, right, you can
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  Speaker 1: do that in the market. Does anybody relax in the
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  Speaker 1: market when the positions on All right, Phil, Orlando, thank
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  Speaker 1: you so much for joining Federated Herme's chief equity market
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  Speaker 1: strategistant head of client portfolio management, and I'm sure he's
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  Speaker 1: getting a lot of calls these days. Sixty eight point
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  Speaker 1: two billion dollars in equity and six hundred four billion
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  Speaker 1: firm wide pole. Yeah, it's just extraordinary. I mean it
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  Speaker 1: feels kind of laying out. You have market risk, which
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  Speaker 1: people are are paid to measure, You've got political risk,
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  Speaker 1: which is we're really peaking here, and then you've got
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  Speaker 1: the whole pandemic risk here. So there's a lot for investors,
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  Speaker 1: obviously to try to digest as they try to formulate
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  Speaker 1: a plan for the near, intermediate, and longer term. I
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  Speaker 1: love where I'm live team says about the treasury market,
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  Speaker 1: because of course we didn't see that move to something before.
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  Speaker 1: Basis points they talked about a crowded triasury market do
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  Speaker 1: for some social distancing early. There's a lot of short
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  Speaker 1: positions and long bond futures, which, just as many areas
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  Speaker 1: of New York City may end up getting shut down again.
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  Speaker 1: I thought that it was interesting to see some recent
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  Speaker 1: housing data and some recent studies that show that Manhattan
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  Speaker 1: at least shows prices going up even if inventory is
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  Speaker 1: coming on the market and there aren't as many sales.
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  Speaker 1: So let's bring in somebody who knows exactly what's going
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  Speaker 1: on in terms of Manhattan and the five rows. Best
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  Speaker 1: Freedman is CEO of Brown Harris Steven's Best thank you
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  Speaker 1: so much for joining, and doesn't explain maybe a little clearer.
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  Speaker 1: Apartments in the third quarter in Manhattan sold for higher
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  Speaker 1: prices than they did pre pandemic. Now not as many
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  Speaker 1: of them sold, but it's still surprising to me that
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  Speaker 1: that was the case, that they went for higher prices.
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  Speaker 1: Can you give us the explanation? Yes, I can. I
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  Speaker 1: think there's a little bit of confusion because in the
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  Speaker 1: third quarter we had some about sixteen closings of a
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  Speaker 1: very high end project, which adjusted the price up, so
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  Speaker 1: it's not really an accurate representation of the average sales price.
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  Speaker 1: And then comparing it to the third quarter of we
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  Speaker 1: had a really uh, not positive third quarter because so
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  Speaker 1: many people try to close in the second quarter because
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  Speaker 1: of the new mansion tax, so um that had an
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  Speaker 1: impact as well. And also some of the prices and
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  Speaker 1: closings that you're seeing are partially due to pre pandemic
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  Speaker 1: contracts that were signed. So it's a mixed bag. Although
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  Speaker 1: I will tell you that the New York City real
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  Speaker 1: estate market has picked up modestly and we're doing much better.
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  Speaker 1: I mean, the second quarter we were closed down pretty much.
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  Speaker 1: So we're having a huge increase and we're very happy
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  Speaker 1: about that. Best where are we in maybe just Manhattan,
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  Speaker 1: where you field the most compleable commenting in terms of
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  Speaker 1: vacancy rates now versus were pre pandemic, and how bad
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  Speaker 1: do you think it could get? You know, it's it's
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  Speaker 1: hard to tell. I mean, think about this. There's been
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  Speaker 1: a lot of media saying, let's just say that, you know,
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  Speaker 1: it's not a ghost town here. There are people that
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  Speaker 1: are buying renting here. We're seeing the numbers. UM. But
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  Speaker 1: we certainly have more supply than we did before. UM
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  Speaker 1: And it's too soon to say whether people are just
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  Speaker 1: temporarily leaving the city or there permanently, So that stuff
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  Speaker 1: is still it's uncertain. UM. But there are plenty of
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  Speaker 1: rentals UM and the rental market is a bit soft,
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  Speaker 1: UM and so that's opportunity for people. But um, and
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  Speaker 1: there are a lot of condos new developments that UM,
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  Speaker 1: there's a lot of vacancies there. But that was a
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  Speaker 1: problem before the pandemic, even hit, So we're still wrastling
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  Speaker 1: with all of those things. UM. But having said that,
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  Speaker 1: if you look at the third quarter numbers overall, UH,
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  Speaker 1: it's clear that New York City is awake and busy
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  Speaker 1: and the market is doing pretty well. Considering what price
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  Speaker 1: point are you seeing the most action best and what
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  Speaker 1: are the if the If it's a skewed picture that
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  Speaker 1: we've been looking at, then what is sort of your
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  Speaker 1: your sense of what the average pandemic discount is? I
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  Speaker 1: would guess if I had to say, it's hard put
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  Speaker 1: a blanket over it, because obviously the high end has
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  Speaker 1: been impacted much more than the lower end. But we're
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  Speaker 1: seeing most of the business under a million. About fifty
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  Speaker 1: percent of the deals of contracts signed have been about
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  Speaker 1: have been under a million. But and then you're seeing
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  Speaker 1: the next between one and two million, it's about UM
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  Speaker 1: and then the high end, if you are between two
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  Speaker 1: and three million, that's about twelve percent of the market.
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  Speaker 1: So if something is priced right, even if it's ten
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  Speaker 1: million dollars, it's selling. But we're very sensitive to over
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  Speaker 1: pricing and the sellers that are anchored to these pre
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  Speaker 1: pandemic prices and are not realistic their UH their apartment
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  Speaker 1: or their home is just sitting there. So we know
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  Speaker 1: that people have to be realistic if they do want
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  Speaker 1: to sell. Talk to us, if if you would best
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  Speaker 1: about the rental um market. What kind of price discounts
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  Speaker 1: are you seeing in the market today. Um, that kind
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  Speaker 1: of surprised you. Here. You know, you're seeing uh, you know,
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  Speaker 1: for the first time, you're seeing landlords being incredibly flexible,
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  Speaker 1: UM offering too and three months rent for free. Uh.
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  Speaker 1: And I'm seeing a lot of landlords let tenants renegotiate
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  Speaker 1: even though they have a fully executed lease. Um that
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  Speaker 1: you know, let's say it goes for another year or two.
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  Speaker 1: Tenants are calling landlords and saying, look, you know, it's
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  Speaker 1: a different environment. I signed this before the pandemic. I'd
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  Speaker 1: like a discount. And I'm seeing as much as ten
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  Speaker 1: to fifteen percent off of leases that were already fully executed.
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  Speaker 1: So landlords, UM, don't want to have somebody leave, They
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: don't want to have toy, so they're they're negotiating. They're
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  Speaker 1: being much more reasonable throughout best What do you say
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  Speaker 1: to somebody who can carry the cost of a place
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  Speaker 1: but definitely wants to sell at some point, are they
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  Speaker 1: better off to keep carrying that cost until the picture
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  Speaker 1: is more clear as to when, if ever Manhattan comes back.
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  Speaker 1: If they can or do do you, we advise them, look,
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  Speaker 1: just just lower the price, get rid of it. Let's
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  Speaker 1: dy else carry the cost of us. I mean, it
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  Speaker 1: really depends on their circumstances. If they if they need
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  Speaker 1: to sell um, they should price it right. And you
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  Speaker 1: know we've had we had a bidding war last week
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  Speaker 1: um and on something that was four million dollars um.
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  Speaker 1: So if it's priced right, it was just you know,
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  Speaker 1: what's important to a lot of people is they want
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  Speaker 1: to be close to where they have to go to
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  Speaker 1: temple or to school, and they want to be able
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  Speaker 1: to walk. You know, right now people are concerned about
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: public transportation because they're worried about their health and safety.
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: As you know New York City's transportation, subways, buses, all
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: of that is so important. But people are now opting
• 12:39
  Speaker 1: to want to be able to walk to where they
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: have to go just to be safe. So when if
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: an apartment is close to a school, for example, people
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  Speaker 1: are saying, yes, that's perfect because I can walk. So
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: that's been taken into account. But if you can hold
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: off and you have time, and you can wait. You
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: could potentially wait a little bit. Hey, best, thank you
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  Speaker 1: so much once again for joining us. We always appreciate
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: your site into the real estate world of New York City.
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: Best Freedman CEO Brown Harris Stevens giving us the update
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: on the Manhattan real estate market. Time to get back
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: to the President's health and of what we might find
• 13:15
  Speaker 1: out exactly, especially after this news that we just learned
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: that Kati Mcannerny has also tested positive for the coronavirus.
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: So let's bring in Jamie Matsil, Senior Fellow at the
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: Atlantic Council, former National Security Council official, and founder and
• 13:29
  Speaker 1: chair of the global movement One Shared World. So Jamie,
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  Speaker 1: talk to us about your reaction to all of this.
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  Speaker 1: It's spreading like wildfire in the White House. There don't
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: seem to have been any precautions to try to save
• 13:42
  Speaker 1: other people, and there still aren't. We just heard today
• 13:45
  Speaker 1: that just now that Katie Mcananny, who has apparently been
• 13:48
  Speaker 1: briefing reporters masklus over the last couple of days, also
• 13:51
  Speaker 1: has it. Yeah, we can't be surprised. It's it's total chaos,
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  Speaker 1: lack of awareness, lack of honesty, lack of transparency, everything
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  Speaker 1: that is characterized the Trump administration throughout the entirety of
• 14:06
  Speaker 1: it its administration, um is now defining how our country
• 14:12
  Speaker 1: and the White House responds to this, to this terrible crisis.
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  Speaker 1: And um, this is why we're in such danger, this
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: is why our our country is at such unnecessary risk.
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  Speaker 1: And it's just unimaginable that when they had enough information
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  Speaker 1: to start being careful, Um, the President puts his perceived
• 14:36
  Speaker 1: narrow interest above the interests of the White Houses, colleagues,
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: his family, and the country. And it's it's really concerning.
• 14:45
  Speaker 1: And this is the kind of of crisis that could
• 14:48
  Speaker 1: have huge, not just national, but global implications. On the
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  Speaker 1: callousness with which this administration is behaving is just breath taken, Jamie,
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  Speaker 1: given your experience on the No Security Council, What is
• 15:02
  Speaker 1: the national security implications of what we're experiencing right now
• 15:06
  Speaker 1: and over the past several days. So our allies count
• 15:11
  Speaker 1: on the United States to be a sound We play
• 15:16
  Speaker 1: a foundational role in the world. And there's a reason
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: why all of our allies don't need to build million
• 15:24
  Speaker 1: person armies or develop their own nuclear weapons. And that's
• 15:28
  Speaker 1: because they believe that the United States has their back,
• 15:31
  Speaker 1: and we have for for many, many decades. With the
• 15:34
  Speaker 1: US in chaos, UM, with so many questions being raised
• 15:39
  Speaker 1: about the validity of our elections by the President of
• 15:43
  Speaker 1: the United States, our allies need to be worried about
• 15:47
  Speaker 1: whether we have the ability to back them up, and
• 15:49
  Speaker 1: our adversaries will recognize that this is a moment of opportunity.
• 15:55
  Speaker 1: Who's been seeing that for a while with the behavior
• 15:57
  Speaker 1: certainly of China and Russia. I'm recognizing that that in
• 16:03
  Speaker 1: many ways the world is more of a free for
• 16:05
  Speaker 1: all now that that the United States, because of the unimaginable,
• 16:11
  Speaker 1: um poor behavior of the of the Trump administration, US
• 16:16
  Speaker 1: is in many ways out of the game in big
• 16:18
  Speaker 1: ways global. What about the Senates, Jamie, I mean, this
• 16:23
  Speaker 1: is not just the executive right, It's it's it's other
• 16:26
  Speaker 1: branches of government that's impacting too, and in fact all
• 16:28
  Speaker 1: branches of government at this point, because you know, even
• 16:30
  Speaker 1: as Mr McConnell says the timeline is going to be
• 16:33
  Speaker 1: the same for the school disappointment, it could very well
• 16:36
  Speaker 1: be that that doesn't actually transpire. So, you know, have
• 16:40
  Speaker 1: you ever seen anything like this that the government sort
• 16:45
  Speaker 1: of infects itself from within. You know, we've we've seen
• 16:51
  Speaker 1: it in the United States where we had our our
• 16:54
  Speaker 1: Civil war. Governments have broken down over history, and way
• 17:00
  Speaker 1: it happened to the Romans has happened to lots of
• 17:04
  Speaker 1: governments where there's precious from without and collapse and decay
• 17:07
  Speaker 1: from u from with him uncertainly a very patriotic American,
• 17:12
  Speaker 1: but it's heartbreaking to see the president of the United
• 17:16
  Speaker 1: States doing to our country what our adversaries have tried
• 17:20
  Speaker 1: and failed to do to us for many, many decades.
• 17:26
  Speaker 1: What do you think, Jamie, if we can just kind
• 17:29
  Speaker 1: of hypothize about a potential for a Biden win in
• 17:34
  Speaker 1: this election, how do you think he will approach national
• 17:37
  Speaker 1: security and our relationship with our allies and others around
• 17:40
  Speaker 1: the world. Can we can we go back to kind
• 17:43
  Speaker 1: of the way it was before? Yeah, and so and
• 17:45
  Speaker 1: and Joe Biden is my full disclosure, he's my former
• 17:48
  Speaker 1: boss many many years ago when he was on the
• 17:51
  Speaker 1: Senate Foreign Foreign Relations Committee. But a Biden foreign policy
• 17:55
  Speaker 1: is going to look in many ways more traditional. We
• 17:59
  Speaker 1: have of our close allies around the world, countries like Japan, Australia, Korea,
• 18:06
  Speaker 1: European Union, countries and others. And rather than than phraising
• 18:11
  Speaker 1: our adversaries like Putin and the Russians and attacking our friends,
• 18:16
  Speaker 1: we're going to try to build We the Biden administration,
• 18:20
  Speaker 1: a Biden administration would try to build a world based
• 18:24
  Speaker 1: on common goals, building alliances, bringing people and countries together
• 18:30
  Speaker 1: to do great things. And that's what America is about.
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  Speaker 1: That's what we've been about, not about hitting one group
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  Speaker 1: against each other, against each other, as the Trump administration
• 18:39
  Speaker 1: has done, not undermining science, not knowingly infects, infecting people,
• 18:45
  Speaker 1: or endangering people just for for political systems. So I
• 18:50
  Speaker 1: think that many of us have grown accustomed to the
• 18:52
  Speaker 1: United States playing a responsible role in the world. We
• 18:56
  Speaker 1: can still play that role, but we have to do
• 18:59
  Speaker 1: things very differently from what's happening now. What is the
• 19:03
  Speaker 1: best case scenario from here, Jamie and and I realized
• 19:07
  Speaker 1: that's a difficult question to answer. So in the short term,
• 19:12
  Speaker 1: I certainly hope that President Trump has a speed recovery,
• 19:16
  Speaker 1: and then I hope that that everybody who's been infected
• 19:20
  Speaker 1: by the callous behavior of the president in the administration
• 19:24
  Speaker 1: they have a speedy recovery. And then I hope that
• 19:28
  Speaker 1: they recognize that what they've been doing, undermining the scientists,
• 19:32
  Speaker 1: encouraging people to not wear wear masks, all of these
• 19:35
  Speaker 1: things is the long way to go. Yes, maybe there's
• 19:38
  Speaker 1: an opportunity to bring the country together around doing the
• 19:40
  Speaker 1: right thing. Jamie, thank you so much. That is Jamie Metzel,
• 19:44
  Speaker 1: Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council, former National security official,
• 19:48
  Speaker 1: founder and chair of the global movement One Shared World. Today,
• 19:55
  Speaker 1: you're drum by Max beson Biotech, farmer and healthcare, calmness, war,
• 19:59
  Speaker 1: Bloomberg Opinion and as we await comments from the doctors
• 20:02
  Speaker 1: at Walter Read Medical Center, perhaps about when President Trump
• 20:06
  Speaker 1: will be released, and we'll bring that to you. Max,
• 20:09
  Speaker 1: thanks so much for joining us here. Boy, there's so
• 20:11
  Speaker 1: much information and perhaps misinformation or just confusion about President
• 20:16
  Speaker 1: Trump at his time at Walter Read the treatments he
• 20:19
  Speaker 1: has received. Um, what do you know as the latest?
• 20:23
  Speaker 1: What do we know? So you know, all of this
• 20:26
  Speaker 1: is with the caveat that you know, I'm not a physician,
• 20:29
  Speaker 1: and as you said, I'm I'm working from information that
• 20:33
  Speaker 1: has been um at times quite contradictory and confusing. But
• 20:38
  Speaker 1: you know, the latest update we got was m was
• 20:41
  Speaker 1: yesterday the news that he potentially could be discharged as
• 20:46
  Speaker 1: soon as today. But that news, of course, was was
• 20:49
  Speaker 1: sort of countered by the fact that that we got
• 20:52
  Speaker 1: the news that he was on a third UM significant
• 20:55
  Speaker 1: medication Deckson episode, a powerful steroid generally given to people
• 21:00
  Speaker 1: that that have quite severe COVID as a way to
• 21:04
  Speaker 1: tamp down potentially dangerous inflammatory response. Um, you know, the
• 21:09
  Speaker 1: use of that medication would tend to in a vacuum
• 21:13
  Speaker 1: in other cases, point you towards the notion that you're
• 21:17
  Speaker 1: dealing with a more significant case or more severe disease.
• 21:21
  Speaker 1: But of course, the fact that they've been you know,
• 21:24
  Speaker 1: quite aggressive about drug treatment the whole time, giving him
• 21:28
  Speaker 1: or general experimental and abody, even though they just released
• 21:32
  Speaker 1: you know, early stage data last week, moving on to
• 21:36
  Speaker 1: m desivere and now this it all just makes for
• 21:38
  Speaker 1: um a really difficult to parse scenario, especially when you
• 21:43
  Speaker 1: have new information that that changes day to day about
• 21:47
  Speaker 1: what's happened on any given day of the president's treatment.
• 21:51
  Speaker 1: So um, it's tough to tell, really, And also the
• 21:55
  Speaker 1: possibility that that that all the doctors might have decided
• 21:57
  Speaker 1: to just frontload everything to throw everything at this at
• 22:00
  Speaker 1: the president at the very beginning to try to stop
• 22:03
  Speaker 1: it from becoming a bad case. Whether that's the right
• 22:06
  Speaker 1: approach or not, I certainly don't know, but that seems
• 22:09
  Speaker 1: to be what they're doing. The President has been tweeting
• 22:12
  Speaker 1: for the last four hours, you know, all caps tweets
• 22:14
  Speaker 1: about various different things. Is it possible that he feels
• 22:19
  Speaker 1: better because medicine is working right now, But you know,
• 22:22
  Speaker 1: discharging him would be potentially very dangerous. You know, it's
• 22:29
  Speaker 1: really again difficult to tell um just because you know,
• 22:33
  Speaker 1: we we know some about how all of these medicines
• 22:37
  Speaker 1: were individually, we know very very little about how they
• 22:43
  Speaker 1: might affect somebody used altogether or in concert. I'm not
• 22:47
  Speaker 1: aware of a significant amount of data for the use
• 22:51
  Speaker 1: of any two of the medicines together rather than all
• 22:55
  Speaker 1: three and and then both from you know, General's medicine
• 22:58
  Speaker 1: because it's new rim desivere because of potential liver and
• 23:02
  Speaker 1: kidney impacts and then decks in episode because it affects
• 23:05
  Speaker 1: a variety of different sense uh body systems, and and
• 23:09
  Speaker 1: damp into the immune system. All medicines that you would
• 23:11
  Speaker 1: expect to have um a significant amount of attention and
• 23:16
  Speaker 1: follow up paid on top of the fact that you know,
• 23:18
  Speaker 1: the president has a symptomatic case of COVID and is
• 23:22
  Speaker 1: seventy four and overweight. So again, you know it all
• 23:26
  Speaker 1: it's a it's a picture that, given the limited facts
• 23:29
  Speaker 1: that we know, is sort of difficult to piece together
• 23:34
  Speaker 1: with the notion of leaving the hospital today. But you know,
• 23:38
  Speaker 1: again you you can there are certain significant medical facilities
• 23:41
  Speaker 1: at the White House. Um, we don't really know that
• 23:45
  Speaker 1: much about his conditions. So this is all at the
• 23:47
  Speaker 1: end of the day, um, speculation and speculation made necessary
• 23:52
  Speaker 1: by you know, poor disclosure from his physicians. Max, give
• 23:57
  Speaker 1: us the latest from your reporting on kind of where
• 23:59
  Speaker 1: we are in terms of vaccines. Is there any change
• 24:02
  Speaker 1: in the timeline? It's I guess the consensus was you
• 24:05
  Speaker 1: might get something late this year, early next year, and
• 24:09
  Speaker 1: then maybe by mid next year have maybe broader disseminate
• 24:12
  Speaker 1: our distribution. Is that's still kind of what you're hearing
• 24:15
  Speaker 1: that sounds about, right, Um. And And the kind of
• 24:19
  Speaker 1: key mediating factor here is when you get data and
• 24:23
  Speaker 1: then when you might get an approval decision into how
• 24:27
  Speaker 1: broad that is two different things. We could conceivably, UM,
• 24:31
  Speaker 1: sometime within the next month if if Fiser's vaccine is
• 24:35
  Speaker 1: doing really well, get efficacy data, but it will take
• 24:38
  Speaker 1: time to evaluate that, and the FDA may want more
• 24:41
  Speaker 1: safety data. So that timeline you pointed out, um still
• 24:45
  Speaker 1: sounds about right to me. Any initial approval it's gonna en.
• 24:48
  Speaker 1: Availability is going to be quite narrow and um it's
• 24:52
  Speaker 1: it's gonna take some time to get the confidence in
• 24:55
  Speaker 1: the data and quite frankly, the number of doses needed
• 24:58
  Speaker 1: an infrastructure to have a broad vaccination for that you're
• 25:03
  Speaker 1: you're looking at next year. I just want to point out,
• 25:07
  Speaker 1: while we have Max on that we did get the
• 25:09
  Speaker 1: Nobel Prize in Medicine today and it went to the
• 25:12
  Speaker 1: discoverers of the hepatitis C virus and and and and
• 25:17
  Speaker 1: treatment for that. So that's something worth noting. We all
• 25:20
  Speaker 1: had a deal today, Max Bristol Myers is thirteen billion
• 25:23
  Speaker 1: dollar deal. Hearty. Indeed, as you say, why is it hearty?
• 25:28
  Speaker 1: So it's a deal for Myocardia, a manufacturer of an
• 25:33
  Speaker 1: investigational novel heart drug, and for person our squib. It's
• 25:37
  Speaker 1: it's a move away from cancer drugs towards towards something
• 25:41
  Speaker 1: with a little bit more of a less competitive, clear
• 25:45
  Speaker 1: path to Um, you know, potentially addressing a pretty sizable market.
• 25:50
  Speaker 1: So I'm interesting to see that in a deal in
• 25:52
  Speaker 1: a year where the biggest deals have been in stet
• 25:55
  Speaker 1: for cancer drugs. So so something that I think may
• 25:59
  Speaker 1: may well for off for them in in targeting the
• 26:03
  Speaker 1: hard market, which can be very lucrative. So Max does
• 26:06
  Speaker 1: this suggests? I mean, it just feels like in the
• 26:07
  Speaker 1: healthcare business, you know, it's ripe for deals. We get
• 26:12
  Speaker 1: the deal activity remains pretty consistent, pretty heavy. Is this
• 26:15
  Speaker 1: just an example of you know, Bristol Myer saying I
• 26:17
  Speaker 1: can either develop, uh, this drug or this therapeutic or
• 26:21
  Speaker 1: I can go buy it and I just have to
• 26:23
  Speaker 1: figure out what's the best economic model. Is that kind
• 26:25
  Speaker 1: of what we saw here today? Yeah? Absolutely. Um, you know,
• 26:28
  Speaker 1: there there has been some muting of deal activity, but
• 26:32
  Speaker 1: relative to most other sectors of the economy, the pharmaceutical
• 26:36
  Speaker 1: business has done you know, pretty well. During the pandemic.
• 26:40
  Speaker 1: People still need medicines, uh, and then they will into
• 26:44
  Speaker 1: the future. Add into that, you know, low borrowing costs, um,
• 26:48
  Speaker 1: the continual need to come up with with new therapies,
• 26:51
  Speaker 1: and you know, the high failure rate of research and development.
• 26:54
  Speaker 1: You're going to continue to see. Um, I think some
• 26:57
  Speaker 1: some pretty good deal flow going forward for distort type
• 27:01
  Speaker 1: of medicine and others. And Max, finally, you know, what
• 27:06
  Speaker 1: would be the one question you'd love to hear from
• 27:08
  Speaker 1: the team at the Walter Read Hospital today because we
• 27:11
  Speaker 1: will hear from them at some point soon. Briefly, Um,
• 27:15
  Speaker 1: you know they're they're quite a lot, but I think
• 27:18
  Speaker 1: more detail on on when and why he's needed oxygen supplementation,
• 27:23
  Speaker 1: what the plan is to take him off of decks
• 27:27
  Speaker 1: and episode, Um, what their rationale is for if they
• 27:32
  Speaker 1: do move him out of the hospital for doing so,
• 27:35
  Speaker 1: given that he's on all these therapies and the status
• 27:38
  Speaker 1: of his lung scans. Not much detail on what exactly
• 27:41
  Speaker 1: they saw there? All right? Four questions from Max and Nissan, biotech,
• 27:45
  Speaker 1: pharma and healthcare columnist for Bloomberg Opinion. We thank him
• 27:48
  Speaker 1: very much for his time. Thanks for listening to Bloomberg
• 27:52
  Speaker 1: Markets podcast. You can subscribe and listen to interviews at
• 27:56
  Speaker 1: Apple Podcasts or whatever podcast platform you prefer. I'm Monny Quinn.
• 28:00
  Speaker 1: I'm on Twitter at Monnie Quinn, and I'm Paul Sweeney.
• 28:03
  Speaker 1: I'm on Twitter at pt Sweeney. Before the podcast You
• 28:06
  Speaker 1: can always catch us worldwide at Bloomberg Radio.