Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / SuperContest with BlackJack Fletcher: NFL Week 1

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SuperContest with BlackJack Fletcher: NFL Week 1 · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

0:01
Speaker 1: Welcome to The Favorites the Super Contest Edition. I am
0:06
Speaker 1: Chad Moment of the Action Network. I am joined by
0:09
Speaker 1: my Action Network brother in arms, black Jack Fletcher. Brother,
0:13
Speaker 1: you're looking so good. I can't wait for people to
0:16
Speaker 1: see the videos that we put out from this because
0:21
Speaker 1: you look ready to roll. I wake up in the morning,
0:24
Speaker 1: ready to roll, Chad, you look ready to roll for
0:27
Speaker 1: our first edition of the Super Contest podcast of the Favorites.
0:32
Speaker 1: If this is your first time ever listening to the podcast,
0:34
Speaker 1: it is certainly the first time listening to this edition
0:37
Speaker 1: to the podcast. Here's how it's gonna work. Every Friday morning,
0:40
Speaker 1: we are going to discuss the entire weekly slate of
0:43
Speaker 1: NFL games. We have to both agree on five picks
0:47
Speaker 1: against the spread. We're going to submit those five as
0:50
Speaker 1: our picks in the Las Vegas Westgate Super Contest. This
0:54
Speaker 1: is the biggest pick up contest in the world and
0:58
Speaker 1: at the end of it, at the end of this season,
1:01
Speaker 1: if we win, we will win one more than one
1:04
Speaker 1: million dollars. So every pick matters, which means that every
1:09
Speaker 1: time we disagree, there's going to be a few that's accurate,
1:14
Speaker 1: and every time we disagree, it means that you have
1:17
Speaker 1: just reduced our chances of winning over a million dollars.
1:19
Speaker 1: That may or may not be true. The good news
1:21
Speaker 1: is at the end of the season, we'll get to
1:22
Speaker 1: calculate how each one of us did and whether or
1:25
Speaker 1: not it was you that cost me a million dollars
1:27
Speaker 1: or only there was an app that did that somewhere. Yes,
1:31
Speaker 1: people should go download the Action Network Gap and they
1:33
Speaker 1: can follow everything we're talking about and everything we're going
1:35
Speaker 1: to be doing throughout the season. Great up, Great up.
1:38
Speaker 1: It shows that I am a markedly better gambler than you.
1:43
Speaker 1: We should just get on with it. Probably we don't
1:46
Speaker 1: have much time because people got to get these picks in.
1:48
Speaker 1: Uh listen, you can always put the Thursday night game
1:51
Speaker 1: in for the Westgates Super Contest. Obviously we're not doing
1:54
Speaker 1: that because this is airing on Friday morning. So let's
1:57
Speaker 1: go to our first game. Let's just get on with
1:59
Speaker 1: it and go to our first game. Pittsburgh Cleveland Steelers
2:03
Speaker 1: by three and a half. I love that. That is
2:07
Speaker 1: a special treat for you. That's fantastic. Just lovely, That's
2:13
Speaker 1: exactly what it is. It's just lovely. It brings some
2:16
Speaker 1: class to this otherwise crass podcast. I bring the class,
2:21
Speaker 1: maybe not so much. All right, here we go though.
2:24
Speaker 1: You know the Browns three and a half point favorites.
2:26
Speaker 1: Here's what's remarkable that's about this game. The Steelers were
2:29
Speaker 1: six and a half point favorites when it opened. It's
2:32
Speaker 1: now down to three and a half. Most of that
2:34
Speaker 1: movement in the past forty hours because of Lady on Bell.
2:39
Speaker 1: They're making it interesting for me. Brother. I don't care,
2:42
Speaker 1: Chad if you yourself for lining up in the backfield
2:45
Speaker 1: for the Pittsburgh Steelers in this game. It doesn't matter.
2:48
Speaker 1: What matters is what's on the other side of it.
2:50
Speaker 1: And the other side of is the Cleveland Browns. And
2:52
Speaker 1: I know people like you were sitting there and you're thinking,
2:55
Speaker 1: maybe this is the year the Browns can turn around
2:57
Speaker 1: and win three games. Who knows, It's not right, Hugh
3:00
Speaker 1: Jackson still the head coach. This team is gonna be
3:02
Speaker 1: a train wreck. It's always a train wreck. The Steelers
3:04
Speaker 1: are loaded with talent. Take the Steelers, lay the three
3:07
Speaker 1: and a half points, and sleep easy tonight. I don't
3:10
Speaker 1: I don't agree with you yet, you guys don't. I'm
3:14
Speaker 1: I'm putting Look when we went, we did a lot
3:17
Speaker 1: of tests of this podcast. We had a lot of
3:19
Speaker 1: practice rounds right and over the course of over the
3:22
Speaker 1: course of our practice rounds, and the Steelers that were like,
3:24
Speaker 1: it's six and a half and then four and a half,
3:26
Speaker 1: and I like them much better at three and a half.
3:30
Speaker 1: There's still a lot a team that I'm putting into
3:31
Speaker 1: my picks to win a million dollars. I'm just not
3:34
Speaker 1: putting a million dollars. I am not putting. Want you
3:39
Speaker 1: to tell me one spot where the Browns are better
3:41
Speaker 1: than the Steelers. One spot this game isn't maybe Jacksonville
3:47
Speaker 1: at New York Giants Jaguars by three. I was waiting
3:52
Speaker 1: for jack I would almost based on how our friend
3:58
Speaker 1: Georgina that's her name, the name of our voice, said Jaguars,
4:04
Speaker 1: I would want to choose the Jaguars. But but I'm
4:09
Speaker 1: telling you right now, I have been on the Giants
4:12
Speaker 1: since this game posted posted it at Giants plus four,
4:15
Speaker 1: it's now plus three. I think that this line is
4:19
Speaker 1: way out of whack. You're paying attacks on the Jaguars
4:23
Speaker 1: for what they did last year. You're not getting credit
4:26
Speaker 1: for what the Giants have done in the preseason to
4:28
Speaker 1: make their in the off season, to make their roster better. Yet,
4:32
Speaker 1: as much as it pains me to say this, chat,
4:33
Speaker 1: I couldn't agree with you more. I've been on the
4:35
Speaker 1: Giants for a while here, three point home favorite. They
4:38
Speaker 1: draft Sae Kwan, Barkley Beckham is back healthy. They add
4:41
Speaker 1: Ogle Tree from the Rams to a defense that was
4:43
Speaker 1: already pretty good. Um Sterley Shepherd is back. I don't
4:47
Speaker 1: see how the Giants don't take a massive step forward
4:49
Speaker 1: this year, and the Jaguars are primed for a step
4:52
Speaker 1: backwards with Blake Bortles and Doug Morons still driving that bus.
4:57
Speaker 1: So yeah, I'm with you here. Giants plus three we one.
5:00
Speaker 1: We got one of the board. Giants plus three against
5:04
Speaker 1: the Jaguars. That is going to be one of our
5:07
Speaker 1: five picks in the Westgate Super Contest. That is gonna
5:09
Speaker 1: make us millionaires. Let's move on San Francisco of Minnesota,
5:15
Speaker 1: Vikings by six and a half. I know where you
5:20
Speaker 1: stand in this game. You think you do, you think
5:24
Speaker 1: you do, but you don't. What is this the real world? Chad?
5:27
Speaker 1: I have been on the Vikings because I am so
5:30
Speaker 1: far against the forty niners. I was on the Vikings
5:33
Speaker 1: at five and a half. Now I'm looking at the
5:35
Speaker 1: six and a half, Chad, and it's concerning me. So
5:37
Speaker 1: I'm gonna I'm gonna ask you convince me, sell me
5:41
Speaker 1: on the Vikings here. Listen, I don't like the Vikings
5:44
Speaker 1: at six and a half. I loved him at five
5:46
Speaker 1: and a half. That's what it opened out. I thought
5:47
Speaker 1: it was a great pick at five and a half.
5:49
Speaker 1: At six and a half, I don't want to convince
5:51
Speaker 1: you because I don't want to put it in in
5:52
Speaker 1: our in our in our pick basket. Here. I can
5:56
Speaker 1: tell you're choosing your words more careful. I'm trying for
6:00
Speaker 1: something else. All right, Well, then I guess it's just
6:03
Speaker 1: not gonna happening. We should move on. Yeah, this is
6:06
Speaker 1: a no. This is an as it often is, this
6:09
Speaker 1: is an absolute Cincinnati at Indianapolis Colts by three. I
6:18
Speaker 1: have almost come completely around on this game in the past,
6:22
Speaker 1: And I don't know why you're you're you're looking at
6:26
Speaker 1: me like that, but I'm telling you right now, I
6:29
Speaker 1: look at this game and I see Cincinnati is the
6:33
Speaker 1: much better team getting points, a much better team getting points,
6:38
Speaker 1: much better. Andy Dalton still the quarterback, better defense, better
6:42
Speaker 1: offensive weapons. You've got an offensive line that I'm just
6:46
Speaker 1: gonna stop you. This isn't gonna be one of the
6:47
Speaker 1: five because I'm not watching this game. I don't want
6:49
Speaker 1: to talk about this game. I don't want to think
6:50
Speaker 1: about this game. Bengals Colts. Who cares? Nobody? Well, that's
6:53
Speaker 1: also the point. This is about game theory, right nobody,
6:57
Speaker 1: no chat. It's about winning. You can use your nerdy
6:59
Speaker 1: little phrases. It's about winning game theory, whatever other fancy
7:03
Speaker 1: words you want to throw out. All that matters is
7:04
Speaker 1: we pick five winners, and I'm going to stop you
7:06
Speaker 1: from getting in the way of that right here. Move along.
7:09
Speaker 1: There's nobody who's going to pick Cincinnati over Indeed, there's
7:13
Speaker 1: a reason for that. Yeah, you know why they're not
7:16
Speaker 1: gonna win the game. You don't know how to play
7:18
Speaker 1: this game. This game is about winning a million dollars.
7:22
Speaker 1: This game is about beating two thousand other people who
7:25
Speaker 1: have entered this contest. No, Chad, this game is about
7:28
Speaker 1: me keeping you in line. That's what it's about. Okay,
7:30
Speaker 1: I'm afraid not, Chad. Is it better to go five
7:33
Speaker 1: than our or four and one in this contest? Black Jack,
7:36
Speaker 1: which if you want to go five, and oh you
7:38
Speaker 1: want to go five and oh, and you want to
7:39
Speaker 1: pick the right games to do. You want to go
7:40
Speaker 1: five and put the Steelers in. Well, we're not doing
7:43
Speaker 1: the Steelers. I'm putting you are taking the Bengals. There's
7:47
Speaker 1: no chance, Chad I will stab you. Let's move on. Okay.
7:54
Speaker 1: Tampa Bay at New Orleans Saints by nine and how
8:00
Speaker 1: go ahead? Saints, Saints all day. Young defense getting better,
8:05
Speaker 1: Drew Brees, Sean Payton, Cameara going to be the feature
8:09
Speaker 1: back now with Ingram suspended for the first four games.
8:11
Speaker 1: Michael Thomas, in my view, the best wide receiver in
8:14
Speaker 1: the NFC against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers with uh Fitzpatrick
8:19
Speaker 1: at quarterback. You know he went to Harvard, right That's
8:21
Speaker 1: that's about all you can say for him. Uh yeah,
8:23
Speaker 1: I'd lay the nine and a half here at New Orleans,
8:26
Speaker 1: I'd lay the nine and a half. I don't think
8:30
Speaker 1: I can support that idea, and of course you can.
8:34
Speaker 1: I think there's gonna be better opportunities. I hope so,
8:37
Speaker 1: because I'm looking at this list and get a little worried.
8:40
Speaker 1: Where the maybe we've got a lot of maybes right now?
8:42
Speaker 1: The problem with me with this game. It's too many
8:45
Speaker 1: points this game. Don't shake your head, don't. I'm kind
8:50
Speaker 1: of agreeing with you a little. I don't know. It's
8:52
Speaker 1: this game opened at seven, it's now at nine and
8:54
Speaker 1: a half. I'm just not going to bet a game
8:56
Speaker 1: where it's almost a double digit spread in the first
8:59
Speaker 1: week of the sea. Yeah, I'm scared because it's a
9:02
Speaker 1: bad idea, because the percentages show you that this is
9:05
Speaker 1: a bad play. Why do I want to purposely put
9:08
Speaker 1: a bad play expected to when's that coming out? I
9:15
Speaker 1: don't need to say it, okay, because you already did. Yeah,
9:19
Speaker 1: I guess so. Right now, we have a yes on
9:24
Speaker 1: the Giants as three point dogs against the Jacksonville Jaguars.
9:29
Speaker 1: We have a no on Minnesota's six and a half
9:32
Speaker 1: against San Francisco, and then we're loaded with maybes. We
9:35
Speaker 1: have so many maybes and this schedules running out of room.
9:39
Speaker 1: Let's move on Buffalo at Baltimore Ravens by seven and
9:44
Speaker 1: a half. I don't like that hook. I don't either.
9:52
Speaker 1: I loved it at seven. I played it at seven,
9:54
Speaker 1: but I don't like seven and a half. I loved
9:55
Speaker 1: it at seven, I played it at seven. We're moving
9:57
Speaker 1: on Houston and ni England Patriots by six and a half.
10:04
Speaker 1: Don't screw this up, brother, don't screw it up. This
10:07
Speaker 1: is such a no brainer. It is like I would
10:11
Speaker 1: put the million dollars just on this game. I'm getting
10:15
Speaker 1: nervous if you don't take Houston in this game. It's
10:22
Speaker 1: almost like you're being as irresponsible as you can possibly
10:26
Speaker 1: be as a better chat. You need to come back
10:32
Speaker 1: to reality. You want to take the Houston Texans here
10:35
Speaker 1: getting six and a half points, that's what you want
10:36
Speaker 1: to do. Not only do I want to do it,
10:41
Speaker 1: I have gone into the Action Network app and made
10:44
Speaker 1: that pick. Well, it's going to be yet another loss
10:46
Speaker 1: on the Action Network app. Because let me tell you something, brother,
10:49
Speaker 1: the New England Patriots are the greatest dynasty in all
10:52
Speaker 1: of professional sports over the last five years. They're coming
10:56
Speaker 1: off of a Super Bowl loss to the Eagles. There
10:59
Speaker 1: even home, Chad, They're at home. They've got the Houston
11:03
Speaker 1: Texans with J. J. Watton is busted back coming in
11:06
Speaker 1: in a varsity jacket. They've got the Shawn Watston Watson
11:10
Speaker 1: and his gimp knee coming in for what his seventh
11:12
Speaker 1: career start, and you want to mess with the team
11:15
Speaker 1: coming in angry looking for blood. No chance, Chad lay
11:19
Speaker 1: the six and a half points with the greatest team
11:21
Speaker 1: to ever take a football field in the New England Patriots.
11:27
Speaker 1: So that feels like it's going to be a no
11:28
Speaker 1: to me. This guy is gonna cost me so much money.
11:33
Speaker 1: Moving on. Tennessee at Miami Titans by one and a half.
11:41
Speaker 1: Love Love, Love, Come on, love christ it's Tennessee Titans.
11:51
Speaker 1: Me too, me too? Tell me why? Because they are
11:54
Speaker 1: the better team at every single position on the field.
11:58
Speaker 1: Ryan Tannehill hasn't played a game in law longer than
12:00
Speaker 1: Andrew Luck. It's been a year and a half. And
12:03
Speaker 1: let us not forget, boys and girls, that when Ryan
12:05
Speaker 1: Tannehill was playing football, he wasn't particularly great at it. Okay,
12:10
Speaker 1: so now he's the savior, returning to the field for
12:12
Speaker 1: the first time in a year and a half against
12:14
Speaker 1: the Tennessee Titans, who are a playoff team last year.
12:17
Speaker 1: The fact that you only have to lay one and
12:18
Speaker 1: a half here is a gift. And I think if
12:21
Speaker 1: you want to talk about your game theory, I think
12:23
Speaker 1: very few people are gonna play this game like this
12:25
Speaker 1: game is not desirable to a lot of people, but
12:28
Speaker 1: I find it very desirable. I'm very excited right now
12:30
Speaker 1: this game of it. I am so excited. Not desirable
12:34
Speaker 1: to anybody. In the previous episode of The Favorites with
12:39
Speaker 1: Bob Scucci, book maker Bob Scucci, uh, we called it
12:42
Speaker 1: the corner TV game. That means that it's going on
12:44
Speaker 1: in the corner because nobody's gonna be watching it and
12:46
Speaker 1: very few people are betting it. If you go into
12:48
Speaker 1: the Action Network Gap, one of the features we have
12:50
Speaker 1: is you can see the bet volume on every single
12:53
Speaker 1: game being played this weekend. And uh, this one is
12:56
Speaker 1: one of the three least bet games on the board,
13:00
Speaker 1: the other one Cincinnati Indianapolis. We haven't gotten to the
13:03
Speaker 1: third one yet. But I love the Titans here. I
13:05
Speaker 1: agree with everything you just said. Better team. Just there's
13:09
Speaker 1: no reason not to plan none. I think we've got
13:13
Speaker 1: a second one. We've got number two. We got the Giants.
13:16
Speaker 1: It's a three point dog against the Jaguars, and we've
13:19
Speaker 1: got the Titans as one and a half point favorites
13:22
Speaker 1: against the Miami Dolphins. Let's move on Dallas A Carolina
13:27
Speaker 1: Panthers by three. Let's walk away. Yeah, my initial lean here,
13:34
Speaker 1: Chad is to the Panthers at home, but I have
13:37
Speaker 1: to tell you our own. Jeff Schwartz wrote an article
13:39
Speaker 1: talking about how these offensive lines are basically walking mash units,
13:42
Speaker 1: and I have very little interest in it now because
13:45
Speaker 1: I think cam Newton might just get destroyed behind the
13:49
Speaker 1: line of scrimmage. I don't know. I want to see
13:51
Speaker 1: how the panthers new offense with north Turner works before
13:54
Speaker 1: I bet on it. I'm with you. I don't have
13:56
Speaker 1: a lot of interest in this if anything is. Jeff
13:57
Speaker 1: Schwartz pointed out, I completely agreed black Jack. Thank you Georgina.
14:02
Speaker 1: That is bullshit. By the sweetheart, that is woman of
14:05
Speaker 1: good taste. There better be. I completely agreed Chad. In
14:11
Speaker 1: our little drops here, here's one for the Millie Monster.
14:17
Speaker 1: Oh my god, that is good. All right, here's the
14:20
Speaker 1: point in this game, Dallas of Carolina. Jeff Schwartz has
14:23
Speaker 1: also pointed out that the under is a good play here.
14:25
Speaker 1: It opened it forty four. It's not down to forty two. Um,
14:29
Speaker 1: I played it at forty four just so people can
14:32
Speaker 1: know that I'm giving people for you. It's a little
14:34
Speaker 1: bit of an extra extra benefit. Can we get a
14:37
Speaker 1: drop where Georgina is talking about the benefits that jack,
14:41
Speaker 1: that black Jack and I offer. You should really stop
14:44
Speaker 1: trying to get Georgina to say things. Let's move on.
14:49
Speaker 1: Kansas City at Los Angeles charges Los Angeles by three
14:53
Speaker 1: and a half. I think we got a winner here. Okay,
14:58
Speaker 1: tell me why I am all over the Kansas City Chiefs. No, no, no, no, no, no,
15:06
Speaker 1: tell me why? Tell you why? Because they're starting a
15:09
Speaker 1: rookie quarterback, Chad. He hasn't played a real game. He's
15:14
Speaker 1: from the Big twelve. You want to tell me the
15:16
Speaker 1: last Big twelve quarterback that was any good in the NFL.
15:19
Speaker 1: I'll wait, yeah, We'll be here all day because it
15:22
Speaker 1: doesn't it doesn't work out. Now, you want Pat Mahomes
15:25
Speaker 1: with the Kansas City Chiefs to come in there and
15:28
Speaker 1: beat the Chargers, who are, mind you, Everyone's darling team.
15:32
Speaker 1: Everyone is so high on the Chargers. I'm not high
15:35
Speaker 1: in them either. Okay, I don't like either one of
15:37
Speaker 1: these teams all that much. The Chargers can't get out
15:39
Speaker 1: of their own way. But you've got Pat Mahomes making
15:41
Speaker 1: his first real NFL start. No, thank you. You're ignoring
15:47
Speaker 1: everything that is good about this number. What's so good
15:52
Speaker 1: about it? You have the majority of the money coming
15:56
Speaker 1: in on the Chargers. You've got this number moving up
15:59
Speaker 1: in instead of down the Chargers. This these teams are
16:03
Speaker 1: even at best, and what you're you're seeing is getting
16:06
Speaker 1: You're getting the Chargers. You're getting the Chargers. One team
16:09
Speaker 1: has the far better quarterback at home with no home
16:14
Speaker 1: field advantage, still better than being an arrowhead. So on
16:17
Speaker 1: a neutral field, I would say these teams are even
16:21
Speaker 1: and you're basically you're basically playing on a neutral field.
16:25
Speaker 1: What was the biggest problem that Pat Mahomes had in
16:27
Speaker 1: the preseason and training camp? What was the biggest problem.
16:31
Speaker 1: I don't know, black Jack. Why don't you I know,
16:32
Speaker 1: because you don't pay enough attention to these things. Chad,
16:34
Speaker 1: you don't know. I'm running a business. Okay, I'm keeping
16:39
Speaker 1: you in business. I'm not walking away a cowboy hat
16:43
Speaker 1: and sunglasses and a fake championship belt, fake fake, this
16:48
Speaker 1: has your logo on it. Fake. And besides, I have
16:52
Speaker 1: to carry this around. Chad, looks like a champion, Feel
16:55
Speaker 1: like a champion, Play like a champion. Carrying you of
16:58
Speaker 1: course I'm carrying you. Say, is that what you're gonna
17:01
Speaker 1: say right, you're running a business. Rely in business because
17:03
Speaker 1: of me, baby, paplahomes biggest problem in the preseason and
17:07
Speaker 1: training camps throwing interceptions, And if he continues to do
17:11
Speaker 1: that in this game, the Chiefs are gonna get lit up.
17:14
Speaker 1: No way, if if, if this feels like a note
17:19
Speaker 1: to me, it's a it's a big note. We only
17:22
Speaker 1: have two games and we are running out of schedule.
17:25
Speaker 1: On to the problematic Seattle Broncos by three, don't funk
17:33
Speaker 1: this up. This game used to be Broncos minus two
17:44
Speaker 1: and a half. Don't do it. The line is moved.
17:48
Speaker 1: The Broncos are now favored by three. Don't care. It's
17:53
Speaker 1: not a great number. I would rather have played at
17:58
Speaker 1: a two and a half. But I still really like
18:02
Speaker 1: the Broncos in this scenario. God, you had me worried.
18:07
Speaker 1: Their defense is just so good. They got much better
18:11
Speaker 1: with the draft addition of Bradley Chubb fourth overall pick
18:15
Speaker 1: case keenum can only if he's mediocre, he's still going
18:19
Speaker 1: to be better than any exactly smartest thing you've said
18:22
Speaker 1: all day talk to me. Everything you said is is
18:26
Speaker 1: spot on. Here. Better offensive unit clearly in Denver at
18:30
Speaker 1: this point Seattle has lost so many playmakers over the
18:33
Speaker 1: last couple of years. Earl Thomas just shows up to
18:36
Speaker 1: camp today for the first time that defense has been
18:39
Speaker 1: decimated by departures. You're going into Denver, a tough place
18:43
Speaker 1: to play against the Broncos team with Royce Freeman, who
18:46
Speaker 1: I really like auditions have him, Courtland Sutton, Bradley Chubb
18:50
Speaker 1: on the defensive side. The Broncos have a lot of
18:53
Speaker 1: pieces here, Chad. There's no reason that this shouldn't be
18:56
Speaker 1: a comfortable win for the Denver Broncos. We have a yes.
19:00
Speaker 1: We have our third yes. Okay, we now have the
19:04
Speaker 1: Denver Broncos is three point favorites over the Seattle Seahawks.
19:08
Speaker 1: We are a yes on the Tennessee Titans as one
19:10
Speaker 1: and a half point favorites over the Miami Dolphins. We
19:13
Speaker 1: are yes on the New York Giants. Is three point
19:16
Speaker 1: dogs against the Jacksonville Jaguars. T U s up Chicago
19:22
Speaker 1: at Green Bay Packers by seven and a half. Why
19:28
Speaker 1: don't you go first, black Jack? This is easy. Packers
19:32
Speaker 1: lay the points. Moving on? What do you mean moving off?
19:37
Speaker 1: That is a definitive A bullshit homer pick from I
19:42
Speaker 1: Love You little, your little cubby Bears. They're so cute, terrible, terrible?
19:49
Speaker 1: Why are you off this? I know I'm pretty, but
19:53
Speaker 1: you gotta talk. You can't just stare into my eyes.
19:55
Speaker 1: The Bears defense is much better with a guy who
20:00
Speaker 1: got there five days ago. I think that they can
20:03
Speaker 1: run the ball, and I think they're going to control
20:07
Speaker 1: the clock. And I think if you want to have
20:11
Speaker 1: a seven and a half point spread, you're gonna need
20:14
Speaker 1: more changes of possessions. Too many points for me? What
20:21
Speaker 1: number would you be comfortable at here? Maybe it doesn't
20:26
Speaker 1: matter what number you'd be comfortable at, Chad, I'd be
20:29
Speaker 1: comfortable at ten and a half year. Okay, you're going
20:32
Speaker 1: into lambeau Field. The Green Bay Packers are coming off
20:36
Speaker 1: of a season where they didn't make the playoffs. Aaron
20:38
Speaker 1: Rodgers shattered his collar bone. Okay, and this guy is
20:41
Speaker 1: coming back. He's the best quarterback in the NFL. Chad,
20:44
Speaker 1: you realize that he's the best quarterback in the NFL.
20:48
Speaker 1: Lambeau Field is a house of horrors for the Chicago Bears.
20:51
Speaker 1: Aaron Rodgers is coming out, he's looking for blood, and
20:54
Speaker 1: he's got Jimmy Graham Now in the red zone, to
20:56
Speaker 1: throw touchdowns too. And that's what he's gonna do, Baby,
20:59
Speaker 1: He's gonna throw to touchdown after touchdown after touchdown. The
21:02
Speaker 1: Packers win this game. Huge, Aaron Rodgers a man on
21:06
Speaker 1: a mission. He is a locomotive rolling down the tracks
21:09
Speaker 1: at a thousand miles an hour, and your little bears
21:12
Speaker 1: are standard right in the middle. I completely agree, like Jack,
21:18
Speaker 1: Thank you, Georgina, Georgina, can you give us the next game? Place?
21:25
Speaker 1: Washington and Arizona Cardinals by one? I don't like it.
21:33
Speaker 1: I don't like it either. You might as well flip
21:35
Speaker 1: a coin on this. Seriously, Bradford and Alex Smith, can
21:38
Speaker 1: we just watch paint ry instead? Why are you still talking?
21:42
Speaker 1: Someone has to fill the air, Georgina, New York Jets
21:46
Speaker 1: at Detroit Lions by six and a half. I liked
21:53
Speaker 1: it better at seven. Loved it seven, loved it it seven.
21:58
Speaker 1: Here's the problem. I I love the Jets in this game,
22:02
Speaker 1: um when it was seven. I don't feel good about
22:05
Speaker 1: Sam Donald like I'm just not a believer yet. Frightens
22:09
Speaker 1: me how much we agree on this. Jeff Schwartz. The
22:11
Speaker 1: other day we were we were taping. I'll take that
22:14
Speaker 1: bed for ESPN Plus, and he pointed out that he
22:18
Speaker 1: still loves the Jets in this game because Sam Donald
22:21
Speaker 1: what he showed, his ability to be calm in the pocket,
22:24
Speaker 1: to be comfortable with the play calling, the way he
22:27
Speaker 1: had some checkdowns, it kind of didn't make sense to me.
22:32
Speaker 1: I'm going to believe him because he played in the
22:33
Speaker 1: NFL and he studied is more than I do. But
22:35
Speaker 1: it still feels like he played his college ball at Oregon.
22:37
Speaker 1: That's not big boy football. I'm not I'm not going
22:40
Speaker 1: with this one. So and neither are you. So we're
22:42
Speaker 1: a no. Yeah, I'm reluctantly. I'm with you. I still
22:45
Speaker 1: kind of like the Jets, but I don't love him.
22:47
Speaker 1: Here's the problem, black Jack. We've got one more game
22:52
Speaker 1: on the board. Let's hear it. Los Angeles Rams at
22:56
Speaker 1: Oakland Rams by four Rams Rams. This is easy. Don't
23:06
Speaker 1: overthink this. The Raiders are a mess chat their team disarray.
23:11
Speaker 1: They have no idea what they're doing. Man. They trade
23:14
Speaker 1: for a J mccaren. What what was that about? You
23:16
Speaker 1: give her a fifth round pick up for a guy
23:18
Speaker 1: you could have had in the off season. Doesn't make
23:20
Speaker 1: any sense. They trade Khalil mac clearly their best defender.
23:24
Speaker 1: He's gone. They trade a third round pick from Martavis
23:26
Speaker 1: Bryant and he doesn't play a game for him. They
23:28
Speaker 1: release him too. I don't know what the Raiders are doing.
23:31
Speaker 1: I don't think the Raiders know what they're doing. The
23:33
Speaker 1: rams high powered offense defense is still very good. I
23:37
Speaker 1: think the Rams go in there and roll them. I
23:39
Speaker 1: think it's ugly. I gotta tell you, I had no
23:41
Speaker 1: opinion in this game. I hadn't thought about it. I
23:45
Speaker 1: never liked it because of the number. It used to
23:46
Speaker 1: be four and a half. I thought that was too
23:48
Speaker 1: many points. I think it's more interesting and for um,
23:52
Speaker 1: looking at it only from sort of a market perspective,
23:55
Speaker 1: the Rams are getting significant about more action. Hold On,
23:58
Speaker 1: let me look at my Action Network gap here and
23:59
Speaker 1: make sure that I'm accurate with that. Um. But yeah,
24:04
Speaker 1: here's the problem. Oh boy, this is what I don't like.
24:08
Speaker 1: Hold On, don't start signing. The Rams right now are
24:12
Speaker 1: getting seventy six percent of the tickets. I'm looking at
24:16
Speaker 1: the Action Network app and generally historically road teams getting
24:25
Speaker 1: close to the money don't cover John. Are you telling
24:33
Speaker 1: me you like the Raiders here? I don't really like either.
24:35
Speaker 1: Of them. How do you what part of this game
24:38
Speaker 1: on the football field. I'm gonna remove you from your
24:42
Speaker 1: little world of spreadsheets. Now on the football field, how
24:45
Speaker 1: do the Oakland Raiders compete with the l A Rams
24:48
Speaker 1: in this game? Tell me how black Jack? You could
24:51
Speaker 1: use that logic every single week on the football field. Basically,
24:56
Speaker 1: you're saying on paper, You're I'm talking about paper. I'm saying,
25:01
Speaker 1: tell me a spot where the Raiders can compete with
25:04
Speaker 1: the ram Right now, you're saying, on paper, look at
25:06
Speaker 1: these rosters, tell me how they can compete. And then
25:08
Speaker 1: what happens. You get out on the field and things change.
25:12
Speaker 1: It's a different environment at home. Something happens to a quarterback.
25:16
Speaker 1: They don't even want the Raiders in Oakland. They're suing
25:18
Speaker 1: them to get out. Here's my point. Here's my point.
25:23
Speaker 1: Over the years, you want to play a road favorite,
25:27
Speaker 1: getting close to the tickets, you will lose. Okay, So
25:32
Speaker 1: make a definitive statement. Are you saying you like the Raiders?
25:38
Speaker 1: I think I am Jesus Christ's I think he likes
25:42
Speaker 1: the Bears because they trade for Khalil Mack. He likes
25:44
Speaker 1: the Raiders because they trade away Khalil Mack, I don't
25:47
Speaker 1: know what to do with you. Well, what you're gonna
25:50
Speaker 1: have to do with me is find two games that
25:52
Speaker 1: we still agree on. Steelers and Rams. Done. Show over
25:56
Speaker 1: right now, let's review. We have the Giants is three
26:02
Speaker 1: point underdogs against the jack Dogs. We have the Titans
26:05
Speaker 1: as one or a half point favorites against the Dolphins.
26:08
Speaker 1: And we have Seattle and Denver as a three point
26:14
Speaker 1: favorite against the Sea Harks. We have Maybes and Since
26:19
Speaker 1: as a three point dog against anywas. We have a
26:22
Speaker 1: maybe on Tampa Bay as a as in New Orleans
26:25
Speaker 1: as a nine and a half point favorite. We have
26:29
Speaker 1: a maybe on the Steelers is three and a half
26:32
Speaker 1: point favorites over the Browns. I could buy into the Steelers.
26:36
Speaker 1: Thank god, thank god, it's taken me three weeks to
26:39
Speaker 1: get him here. Let's add the Steelers. I would say,
26:42
Speaker 1: let's add the Steelers, and then you're gonna say, as
26:47
Speaker 1: we negotiate, we're gonna add the Bengals. No, we're not.
26:52
Speaker 1: This isn't a negotiation. Don't believe me. I'm about to
26:57
Speaker 1: stuff you in a goddamn locker if I can find
26:59
Speaker 1: one double down on the Cardinals. Black Jack Fletcher this
27:04
Speaker 1: is getting sexy in here. I like it. Georgina brings
27:09
Speaker 1: up the Cardinals. No, no, do we really not like
27:13
Speaker 1: the Jets? Do we really not like the Jets? Don't
27:15
Speaker 1: like the Jets? Panthers? God, no, what is the matter
27:21
Speaker 1: with you? Baltimore? We went Baltimore. No, we went through
27:25
Speaker 1: these things. Buffalo really stinks. It's the Bengals. Oh no,
27:31
Speaker 1: I am not going to give our fantastic proxy at
27:33
Speaker 1: Football contest dot Com the Bengals as one of these
27:37
Speaker 1: five picks. I can't give away a plug. Do you
27:40
Speaker 1: know how much those things are worth? You know what?
27:42
Speaker 1: He's a lovely man. I met him and his wife, Tony.
27:44
Speaker 1: They're spectacular people. Friends of yours actually, so you should
27:48
Speaker 1: be thankful, grateful for this instead of just trying to
27:51
Speaker 1: get every penny you can. I can't find my notes anymore. Patriots, Patriots, No, Patriots,
27:59
Speaker 1: the tech since they're's so the right sis, I'm going
28:06
Speaker 1: to make an executive decisions. You can make decision you want.
28:09
Speaker 1: I got the password to the proxy account. Oh that's
28:11
Speaker 1: an interesting power play, Blackjack the Mi monster. Tell me,
28:17
Speaker 1: tell me why why are you so high on the Bengals?
28:20
Speaker 1: Andy Dalton Marvin Lewis, Why look, I think you're they're
28:26
Speaker 1: a better team. They're just a better team. And because
28:31
Speaker 1: of public perception, because everyone thinks Andrew Luck is back
28:35
Speaker 1: the Colts, who have no offensive line, they have no
28:38
Speaker 1: running backs, they have no defense. They're getting three points
28:41
Speaker 1: at home because they're playing at home. That's it. The
28:45
Speaker 1: Bengals are just a better team. This is a team
28:48
Speaker 1: that had a crappy year last year because for a
28:50
Speaker 1: variety of reasons. But it's also a team that two
28:53
Speaker 1: years ago, with pretty much the same personnel, went to
28:56
Speaker 1: the playoffs. They're just a better team. Look at the roster.
29:02
Speaker 1: But chick toeo. They beat this team on the field.
29:07
Speaker 1: That's how you that's how you you analyze a football game,
29:10
Speaker 1: not with a pack in numbers. Well, I'm bringing your
29:14
Speaker 1: logic to this game. You really want that, and I'm
29:17
Speaker 1: gonna tell you brother, the Bagels. Come on, let's tell
29:21
Speaker 1: a better team. They have the better running back, he
29:26
Speaker 1: better defensive line. They are gonna crush now Colts offensive
29:32
Speaker 1: line that has so many holes you could run water
29:37
Speaker 1: through it. Andrew Luck, We'll be lucky to get out
29:40
Speaker 1: of this game alive. You need a lot of holes
29:42
Speaker 1: to run water through something that doesn't even make sense.
29:47
Speaker 1: The point is. The point is, can you name one
29:50
Speaker 1: of those players at the positions you just talked about?
29:52
Speaker 1: Geno Atkins nailed it all right, you want it, you
29:57
Speaker 1: got it. But if you screw this up, God help you. Boom.
30:04
Speaker 1: We have come to I gotta say that was hard.
30:08
Speaker 1: We have come to a consensus. Here are our games.
30:12
Speaker 1: We are going for one million dollars on these games.
30:17
Speaker 1: New York Giants plus three against the Jackson phil Jaguars,
30:20
Speaker 1: Cincinnati Bengals plus. I can't believe we're putting a million
30:24
Speaker 1: dollars on the Cincinnati Bengals. You can't believe plus you
30:27
Speaker 1: just sold me on it plus three. I guess they
30:30
Speaker 1: did that. What's going We are betting a million dollars
30:34
Speaker 1: on the Tennessee Titans minus one and a half over
30:36
Speaker 1: the Miami Dolphins. We are betting a million dollars on
30:39
Speaker 1: the Denver Broncoes minus three over the Seattle Seahawks. Who
30:44
Speaker 1: do I miss? We are betting a million dollars on
30:47
Speaker 1: the Pittsburgh Steelers minus three and a half against the
30:50
Speaker 1: Cleveland Browns. Do you have those to send to Maddie?
30:55
Speaker 1: I sure do, sure do, be ashamed if that Bengals
30:58
Speaker 1: one didn't make it. Wow, this is gonna be a
31:03
Speaker 1: long year, ladies and gentlemen. I don't know what to
31:07
Speaker 1: say about that. I'm glad you listened. Um, I hope
31:10
Speaker 1: you followed along. Obviously you'll know what happens because we
31:14
Speaker 1: will recap next Friday. On Monday, you can listen to me,
31:19
Speaker 1: Jeff Schwartz, Paula Duca, all from the Action Network. We're
31:23
Speaker 1: gonna recap what happened over the weekend, and we are
31:25
Speaker 1: going to get nine picks together looking to the week
31:28
Speaker 1: ahead for a nine team parlay. Download the Action Network app,
31:33
Speaker 1: Listen to the favorites, subscribe, rate, review, unsubscribe, resubscribe, all
31:40
Speaker 1: that good stuff. Thanks for listening. You know, I didn't
31:42
Speaker 1: know what any of this means.