Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / .1% Cow & Ghosted by a Witch | NFL Divisional Round

Transcript

.1% Cow & Ghosted by a Witch | NFL Divisional Round · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:09
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, presented by Draft Kings. The crown
• 0:13
  Speaker 1: is yours. The Divisional Round gets kicked off on Saturday.
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: We have all the info that you need to get
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: set for all of it. We'll get you some bets
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: in pocket by the end of the show as well.
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: I am Brandon Kravitz, joined by the Favorites Crew, the
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: Prime Minister of Degenerate Nation, Stucky, and the Queen of
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: the Pod, Miss Kendra Middleton. As I get so choked
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: up because the season is coming to an end. On
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: today's episode, We've got action or distraction Stucky's random question
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: of the week. Don't forget to pull one of those out.
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: Two Kings and a Queen parlay courtesy of Draft Kings
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: and a Sling TV look ahead to Texans Patriots. But first,
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: our stat of the day, straight from the primer. Since
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: two thousand and three, home to teams in the Divisional
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: Round coming off of a bye are thirty three, forty
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: four and one against the spread. That's forty three percent,
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: including three and seven ats. Since twenty twenty, that would
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: of course be Seattle and Denver if you were following
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: this trend, those were teams or those art teams that
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: you would want to fade as a favorite of seven
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: or more points off of a bye. Those teams are seventeen,
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: twenty six and one. That's forty percent ats. That's just
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: the Seattle Seahawks. If you wanted to lean into that trend,
• 1:30
  Speaker 1: clearly you'd be on the forty nine ers in the Bills.
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: But Kendra, why do you think the buye has been
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: so disruptive? I want to answers from both of you
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: on this, any theories as to why. And this works
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: by the way, in college football as well. These teams
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: outside of Indiana that have been getting the buy the
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: last two years have been disrupted by it.
• 1:50
  Speaker 2: Yeah, sitting on your couch I think does a lot
• 1:52
  Speaker 2: for people, But I think it's more so when you
• 1:54
  Speaker 2: think about something for so long, you almost overanalyze it
• 1:58
  Speaker 2: and you almost over game plan. So I think it's
• 2:01
  Speaker 2: the combination, which is the easy answer to say, of
• 2:03
  Speaker 2: just sitting on your couch, getting too comfy, not being
• 2:06
  Speaker 2: out there in your routine in the season grind, and
• 2:09
  Speaker 2: just starting to overplan instead of going out there and
• 2:12
  Speaker 2: playing the game that you've played all season. I think
• 2:14
  Speaker 2: people have way too much time to overthink it stuck you.
• 2:17
  Speaker 3: I mean, now we might be over like speaking overthink,
• 2:19
  Speaker 3: we might just be overthinking this. So might just be random.
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: I think that it's perhaps overpriced into.
• 2:26
  Speaker 3: That's the other thing is that people might you might
• 2:29
  Speaker 3: overvalue the bye byes aren't as valuable anyway. I mean
• 2:32
  Speaker 3: you google back home. Teams coming off of a bye
• 2:34
  Speaker 3: over the last like eight years in the regular season
• 2:39
  Speaker 3: have not performed well either. Buys aren't you don't you
• 2:42
  Speaker 3: don't have this, They don't. They aren't treated the same
• 2:45
  Speaker 3: as before. Also, teams are better at traveling, like they're
• 2:49
  Speaker 3: smarter about a lot of things. But like if I
• 2:56
  Speaker 3: if I had a game last week and writing a
• 2:58
  Speaker 3: short week this week, like twenty years ago, that would
• 3:01
  Speaker 3: have been like a much bigger deal than it is now.
• 3:05
  Speaker 3: So there's a lot of noise in a sample size
• 3:09
  Speaker 3: that small. But there also could be a little bit
• 3:12
  Speaker 3: of the buy is a bit overvalued in the market
• 3:18
  Speaker 3: for these one seeds because just logically you think about
• 3:25
  Speaker 3: it and you would say, Okay, I got extra time
• 3:27
  Speaker 3: to prepare a game plan. It shouldn't be a detriment.
• 3:32
  Speaker 3: But maybe there's more distractions. I happen to think it's
• 3:34
  Speaker 3: just a lot of noise and small sample size. But
• 3:39
  Speaker 3: I think that your explanation probably is the most sound,
• 3:44
  Speaker 3: is that at times it probably can be a bit overvalued.
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: Evan, you're the one that pieced this stat together. Do
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: you have any working theories on that? Is it just
• 3:53
  Speaker 1: price over correction? Is it travel accommodations. We've seen this also,
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: home team in all sports not as profitable as they
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: were in the past, and I think a lot of
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: that perhaps has to do with environment. So I don't
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: know if those are there's a correlation there. But you're
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: the one that slapped it together. Do you have any
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: working theories on this?
• 4:14
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I think it's all them. I think travel much
• 4:16
  Speaker 4: easier lately. I think sitting on your couch versus playing
• 4:21
  Speaker 4: is usually a disadvantage unless you're a team that absolutely
• 4:23
  Speaker 4: needs it, like when we had that Seattle San Francisco game.
• 4:26
  Speaker 4: I think San Francisco needed a bye. I think they
• 4:29
  Speaker 4: could have used a buy to get people healthier. Seattle
• 4:31
  Speaker 4: probably didn't need it as much, so I would look
• 4:33
  Speaker 4: at it as a bit of a disadvantage based on
• 4:34
  Speaker 4: the team. Sucky's also right, since twenty nineteen teams off
• 4:38
  Speaker 4: a buy versus teams on normal rests seventy one, ninety
• 4:41
  Speaker 4: two and two. So I mean that's like forty three
• 4:46
  Speaker 4: percent as well, but a little noisy. But also I
• 4:49
  Speaker 4: think the market's also just overvaluing the team by a
• 4:52
  Speaker 4: few points.
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: Probably point and a half, I would think is the
• 4:57
  Speaker 1: natural correction for a team that has rest. Stucky, do
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: you have a personal price that you bacon off of
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: that when you're putting your numbers together for one off
• 5:07
  Speaker 1: of a buy for a team that has a bye
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: week advantage?
• 5:11
  Speaker 3: It depends on the specific situation, but in general, about
• 5:14
  Speaker 3: a half.
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: Point Kendre, how much do you think, just off the
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: top of your head, what do you think that would
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: be worth if you had to add it to the
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: point spread? Does that sound right?
• 5:22
  Speaker 5: I don't see.
• 5:24
  Speaker 2: Part of me wants to agree that it's probably like a.
• 5:27
  Speaker 5: Point and a half.
• 5:28
  Speaker 2: But the thing is is that I if you know
• 5:30
  Speaker 2: this stat with history and everything like that, maybe it
• 5:32
  Speaker 2: is actually overvalued. In Stucky's right, it's at half a point.
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: And I think that that's the thing that for anybody
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: that's trying to piece this stuff together is pricing it properly.
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: I think coaching matters I would love to see that
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: broken down by which team got the teams that got
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: the buy, how good are their coaches and taking advantage
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: of those opportunities veteran teams versus young teams. I mean,
• 5:58
  Speaker 1: I think you'd have to get pretty granular in order
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: to answer that properly, But that is something that could
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: reappear on today's episodes. We'll get back to that in
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: the moment.
• 6:08
  Speaker 3: It's a good point because it is that is just
• 6:10
  Speaker 3: a general, my general, high level plug in. But like
• 6:14
  Speaker 3: there's depending on the team, the coach, the when, when
• 6:19
  Speaker 3: in the season, like what what is the other team's
• 6:24
  Speaker 3: situation as well, So there's a lot of other factors
• 6:26
  Speaker 3: that can alter that. Now, it's not gonna be a
• 6:28
  Speaker 3: huge difference, but there's definitely more nuance than just a
• 6:32
  Speaker 3: blanket adjustment. But if that's around where I'm at in
• 6:37
  Speaker 3: general for a.
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: Buye back to football in a moment. Time to delve
• 6:42
  Speaker 1: into the weird, the bizarre, the random. I kick it
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: over to you Stuckey for your random question of the week. Hey,
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: this is a dumb question. Let me ask you a
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: personal question kind of question. Is that is question?
• 6:57
  Speaker 3: All right? What is the most embarrassing thing that has
• 7:00
  Speaker 3: ever happened to your head. So it could be your face,
• 7:04
  Speaker 3: could be your hair. Like I'm mainly thinking like a haircut,
• 7:09
  Speaker 3: but Branon, I don't know if you've if you've had
• 7:11
  Speaker 3: haircuts before.
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: I used to hair. I used to have hair. This
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: is a drunken COVID decision to shave my head.
• 7:16
  Speaker 3: So yes, So I'll start with mine. I when I
• 7:23
  Speaker 3: was I was since sixth, sixth, fifth or sixth grade,
• 7:29
  Speaker 3: and I wanted to get my hair cut and for
• 7:40
  Speaker 3: something like at school the next day. But like we on,
• 7:43
  Speaker 3: my hairdresser couldn't get an appointment last second. My mom
• 7:47
  Speaker 3: must have called or something. So my dad, who had
• 7:51
  Speaker 3: too many cocktails, was like, I'll do it, and my
• 7:56
  Speaker 3: mom was like no, no, no, you're not doing this,
• 8:00
  Speaker 3: and my dad was like, I can do it. So
• 8:03
  Speaker 3: when to my laundry clippers and he tried to cut
• 8:06
  Speaker 3: my hair, but it was a disaster. There was like
• 8:11
  Speaker 3: enormous chunks that were taken out multiple times, and my
• 8:19
  Speaker 3: mom was like you came in and saw this and
• 8:22
  Speaker 3: like was like you have to stop this, and so
• 8:26
  Speaker 3: like we no one tried to fix it and we
• 8:29
  Speaker 3: had to go to I got to go to the
• 8:30
  Speaker 3: hairdresser the next day, but I had to go into
• 8:32
  Speaker 3: school and I wanted my hair to be nice for
• 8:34
  Speaker 3: this thing. I was like given a presentation or something.
• 8:38
  Speaker 3: So I went in and uh, I was wearing a
• 8:44
  Speaker 3: I just wore a hoodie up and then like tied it,
• 8:48
  Speaker 3: and then a teacher in a class like made me
• 8:52
  Speaker 3: take it down and everyone started laughing. It was kind
• 8:56
  Speaker 3: of like a sitcom. Uh, And I was like so
• 9:01
  Speaker 3: and but looking back, it was so funny. But my
• 9:03
  Speaker 3: dad trying to cut my hair and I had these
• 9:04
  Speaker 3: I mean I'm talking like he went like and then
• 9:07
  Speaker 3: like like three or four times big chunks, and I
• 9:10
  Speaker 3: just had these and then I had to shape my
• 9:12
  Speaker 3: head when I went to the hairdresser later that day,
• 9:15
  Speaker 3: but super embarrassing. Tried to hide it for the day,
• 9:19
  Speaker 3: couldn't get away with it.
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: There is no preparing for these questions, by the way, Yeah,
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: you just never know what direction the weirdest or the
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: most embarrassing thing to happen to your head. Not something
• 9:30
  Speaker 1: I've thought of in a very long time. Mine is
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: not haircut related. I was in high school. I was
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: either a freshman or sophomore, but we had lockers that
• 9:40
  Speaker 1: were you had one big locker and then another was
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: stacked on top of it, so you had two per
• 9:46
  Speaker 1: row and I was bending down. Mine was on the bottom.
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: I went to go stand up. The one above me
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: was open. And so we're talking about these a metal
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: high school locker that probably had rust and all sorts
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: of rabies in it and sliced my head. But it
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: hurt like I felt like I got my bell rung.
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: But I just thought that that was it. And I'm standing,
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: I'm talking to my friends and all of them look
• 10:12
  Speaker 1: at me like they have witnessed a murder. My face
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: just starts bleeding profusely and they go, dude, you're bleeding.
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: And I had to go to the uh medical office.
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: My face is covered in blood. I still have a
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: little scar on the top of my head, and I
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: see it now that I shaved my head. But that
• 10:32
  Speaker 1: was walking through high school with a bloody face because
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: I hit my head on a locker unprovoked. That probably
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: qualifies for me. Kendra, what about you, I'm I've ketched
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: up here.
• 10:43
  Speaker 3: You have something, girl, This is like an easier question
• 10:45
  Speaker 3: for for sure.
• 10:46
  Speaker 2: I'm about to take you both to the cleaners.
• 10:49
  Speaker 5: I love you both.
• 10:51
  Speaker 2: I was born without the upper left side of my jaw,
• 10:55
  Speaker 2: and so when I was ten, I didn't have I
• 10:58
  Speaker 2: still have baby teeth, and I don't have adult teeth
• 11:01
  Speaker 2: like up here at all. So they had to rip
• 11:04
  Speaker 2: my baby teeth out because we didn't know if they
• 11:05
  Speaker 2: would ever come out, and so until I was old
• 11:10
  Speaker 2: enough for them to do surgery on me, I had
• 11:13
  Speaker 2: to have just a huge gap of no teeth right here.
• 11:18
  Speaker 2: So I had braces with no teeth, just a metal
• 11:21
  Speaker 2: bar across the front half of my mouth. And then
• 11:24
  Speaker 2: I had a flipper that I could take in and
• 11:26
  Speaker 2: out when I was in high school, so I either
• 11:29
  Speaker 2: had no teeth at all or like an infection in
• 11:31
  Speaker 2: the roof of my mouth from wearing my flipper so much.
• 11:34
  Speaker 2: So all of my pictures growing up, all of my
• 11:37
  Speaker 2: middle school everything no.
• 11:39
  Speaker 5: Teeth hold on.
• 11:42
  Speaker 2: I have a picture I took a screenshot from my
• 11:46
  Speaker 2: surgery after I finally had the rods put in my
• 11:48
  Speaker 2: face with the cowbone.
• 11:50
  Speaker 5: This is how swollen I was.
• 11:52
  Speaker 3: Oh my god, So that's what you had to eventually do,
• 11:57
  Speaker 3: is get rods like.
• 11:59
  Speaker 2: I have cowbone holding my jaw together with like a
• 12:02
  Speaker 2: metal rod and then I have implants like put into
• 12:05
  Speaker 2: the cowbone because that's how they held my face together.
• 12:09
  Speaker 5: I have baby teeth that I still could lose one day.
• 12:13
  Speaker 3: Is there any Do you have any negative side effects
• 12:15
  Speaker 3: to that? Or everything's normal?
• 12:17
  Speaker 5: No, everything's super fine.
• 12:19
  Speaker 2: I just might have to have like obviously, my implants
• 12:21
  Speaker 2: were placed at some point because eventually you have to.
• 12:23
  Speaker 2: But other than that, everything's good to go.
• 12:27
  Speaker 5: Modern medicine's crazy.
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: Well that'll keep you.
• 12:29
  Speaker 5: I'm like point one percent cow.
• 12:34
  Speaker 3: That's pretty funny. Well, then moon that EVN does ev'n
• 12:39
  Speaker 3: have anything? I I had a bird fall on my head.
• 12:42
  Speaker 4: I was walking down New York City, so I mean,
• 12:44
  Speaker 4: I guess that kind of counts because like it's hair related,
• 12:48
  Speaker 4: head related, So I'm going to go with that because
• 12:49
  Speaker 4: that's the only thing I can come up with.
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: A bird.
• 12:54
  Speaker 4: No, like a bird flew down and kind of gave
• 12:57
  Speaker 4: me like the old one too.
• 13:00
  Speaker 2: And then yeah, nice, I'm going to send this picture
• 13:04
  Speaker 2: of me to Gifford because I'm going to tweet it
• 13:06
  Speaker 2: out when we put our link out later and tell
• 13:07
  Speaker 2: people to listen for this story.
• 13:10
  Speaker 5: So you're welcome, Gifford.
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: Anyways, and uh, and you avoided my bad cow jokes.
• 13:15
  Speaker 1: So let's move on to action or distraction.
• 13:18
  Speaker 2: This is distracted.
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: I'm not stay I want it on the action. One
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: quick non playoff related item. John Harball right now finalizing
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: a deal with the New York Giants to become their
• 13:32
  Speaker 1: new head coach, Stucky action or distraction on the g
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: Men being a team that you plan to take seriously
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: next season?
• 13:41
  Speaker 3: Uh, Like, what do you mean by seriously? That's I
• 13:46
  Speaker 3: think it was a good hire. I think it's it's
• 13:51
  Speaker 3: going to depend on the rest of his staff, some
• 13:54
  Speaker 3: of the moves that they make in the offseason to Giants,
• 13:59
  Speaker 3: and then it's it's basically, do they have the quarterback?
• 14:02
  Speaker 3: Is dark the guy? If you believe in that, then
• 14:04
  Speaker 3: you're going to potentially be interested in the Giants. I
• 14:07
  Speaker 3: think Harball is a good higher for a team like
• 14:13
  Speaker 3: the Giants in the state that they're in right now,
• 14:17
  Speaker 3: and I think that will probably hire smart coordinators. So yeah,
• 14:23
  Speaker 3: I could I could see myself potentially looking into like
• 14:27
  Speaker 3: they're over, but it's gonna depend on some of their
• 14:30
  Speaker 3: other moves, which it hasn't been the best organization in
• 14:35
  Speaker 3: terms of their offseason moves. Maybe Harball will help in
• 14:39
  Speaker 3: that aspect. But I do think it was the ideal
• 14:43
  Speaker 3: higher for the Giants. Like there's there's teams that are
• 14:46
  Speaker 3: in different phases of where they're at, Like I don't
• 14:51
  Speaker 3: think the Giants are in a space where they could
• 14:55
  Speaker 3: win the Super Bowl next year or the year after.
• 15:00
  Speaker 3: So I think Harball is a good hire to try
• 15:03
  Speaker 3: to stabilize that organization and get things headed in the
• 15:06
  Speaker 3: right direction, like I don't think they needed. But he
• 15:10
  Speaker 3: has to get coordinators matter so much, right, Like he's
• 15:14
  Speaker 3: not Liam Cohen, Right, you hire Liam Cohen and then
• 15:18
  Speaker 3: you're going to get this. I mean John Harball' is
• 15:21
  Speaker 3: his background is you know, special teams, right, That's that's
• 15:25
  Speaker 3: was his specialty before became a head coach. So I'll
• 15:29
  Speaker 3: say semi interested, but I need to see the rest
• 15:32
  Speaker 3: of his staff in the offseason moves.
• 15:33
  Speaker 1: But I do like the hire taking their season over
• 15:36
  Speaker 1: would be taking them seriously. So appreciate the way you
• 15:39
  Speaker 1: answered that, Kendrick. What about you on Harball to the Giants.
• 15:43
  Speaker 2: I said even before all this went down that the
• 15:46
  Speaker 2: minute probably their season totals come out, I'm going to
• 15:49
  Speaker 2: be on the over just because they're going to get
• 15:51
  Speaker 2: so much healthier, and we saw how good their defensive
• 15:53
  Speaker 2: line was this season.
• 15:54
  Speaker 5: I think they're young. I think they like each other.
• 15:56
  Speaker 2: I think that they have good chemistry and if they
• 16:00
  Speaker 2: can get you know, some of their draft picks coming
• 16:02
  Speaker 2: up to hit next year. That division is so wild,
• 16:07
  Speaker 2: and it seems like the everybody's regressing. I mean, who
• 16:11
  Speaker 2: knows what we're gonna get with the Cowboys being healthy
• 16:14
  Speaker 2: next season. I don't have a ton of faith in
• 16:16
  Speaker 2: the Commanders. The Eagles are regressing, so I think that
• 16:19
  Speaker 2: it was the right higher for him. I'm gonna be
• 16:21
  Speaker 2: all over them next year because you know, we can
• 16:23
  Speaker 2: make all the jokes we want, but I think it's
• 16:25
  Speaker 2: really true that Jackson, Dart and camp Scatibo are going
• 16:27
  Speaker 2: to have the most electric five year careers ever. And
• 16:29
  Speaker 2: I think that that defense is decent, So I'm gonna be.
• 16:32
  Speaker 5: All over it.
• 16:34
  Speaker 1: Nick Giffen's luck rankings point us in two directions this week.
• 16:37
  Speaker 1: No surprise, the Bears are considered a lucky team. They
• 16:41
  Speaker 1: take on the Rams the under and the Bills Broncos
• 16:44
  Speaker 1: also in the mix as far as a luck under
• 16:47
  Speaker 1: between those two squads. Kendra action or distraction on either
• 16:52
  Speaker 1: of those. I don't know if you want to blow
• 16:54
  Speaker 1: the wad what you have coming up. I try not
• 16:56
  Speaker 1: to look ahead because I like to be surprised when
• 16:58
  Speaker 1: it comes to the two Kings and a Queen Parlay nominations.
• 17:02
  Speaker 1: But do either of those strike your interests? Either fading
• 17:06
  Speaker 1: the Bears or taking the under in a Bills Broncos game.
• 17:10
  Speaker 2: I have gotten in on both of these games. I
• 17:14
  Speaker 2: think we're at a point where how do you really
• 17:16
  Speaker 2: measure luck in a postseason? Like I get that it's
• 17:19
  Speaker 2: something that we talk about every single week on this show,
• 17:22
  Speaker 2: but I don't know if I believe that luck is
• 17:24
  Speaker 2: really as much of a factor in the postseason. I
• 17:27
  Speaker 2: don't know if that's crazy to say.
• 17:29
  Speaker 1: I don't think it is. I think the Bears have
• 17:31
  Speaker 1: got The Bears are just that team that it feels
• 17:37
  Speaker 1: like the rules don't apply to them, and maybe at
• 17:39
  Speaker 1: some point it catches up with them. But they've got
• 17:41
  Speaker 1: a horseshoe stuck so far up their ass it's hard
• 17:44
  Speaker 1: to quantify it. So I'm with you. I think that
• 17:48
  Speaker 1: is easier to gauge in the regular season. Nick Kiffin
• 17:50
  Speaker 1: does an incredible job, and he certainly does a lot
• 17:52
  Speaker 1: more research on this than I do, so I don't
• 17:54
  Speaker 1: want to dismiss it completely, but it does feel like
• 17:56
  Speaker 1: there's always in any data set there's going to be outliers.
• 17:59
  Speaker 1: The Bears feel like the outlier where you land on
• 18:01
  Speaker 1: that stucky Yeah.
• 18:04
  Speaker 3: I mean, it's just that they're they're the way that
• 18:05
  Speaker 3: they're playing and winning is just unsustainable. And this team
• 18:08
  Speaker 3: easily could have, you know, had set only seven or
• 18:09
  Speaker 3: eight wins and missed the playoffs this year. Now we're
• 18:13
  Speaker 3: talking about every year, you're gonna have a couple of
• 18:16
  Speaker 3: lucky teams, a couple of lucky teams in every sport,
• 18:19
  Speaker 3: and it's just an unsustainable way to live. And that's
• 18:22
  Speaker 3: why we have power ratings, and that's why we you know,
• 18:25
  Speaker 3: look into these teams and in more in depth. And
• 18:28
  Speaker 3: if you look, for example, like most people would have
• 18:30
  Speaker 3: that the Bears are like an average team. So it's
• 18:34
  Speaker 3: just not going down multiple scores in the fourth quarter
• 18:37
  Speaker 3: and needing to come back with under two minutes to
• 18:39
  Speaker 3: go and needing onside kicks and fourth and eights and
• 18:41
  Speaker 3: two point converts and other teams the miss kicks. It's
• 18:44
  Speaker 3: just not a sustainable way to live. Now, does that
• 18:46
  Speaker 3: mean that they can't get it together and not need
• 18:50
  Speaker 3: luck for a couple for you know, it's football two
• 18:52
  Speaker 3: or three games. No, does that mean that they can't
• 18:55
  Speaker 3: get lucky for a couple, you know, three more games. No,
• 18:58
  Speaker 3: they could get even luckier the next three games, but
• 19:02
  Speaker 3: you know, chances are that it probably catches up to them.
• 19:06
  Speaker 3: So yeah, I kind of like the Rams, but I
• 19:10
  Speaker 3: approached it in a different way, which I'll get to
• 19:15
  Speaker 3: in our barlay. And I I do like the under
• 19:23
  Speaker 3: the Bills Broncos under I guess I'll talk about that now.
• 19:28
  Speaker 3: I mean, uh, you look at the Bills that you
• 19:31
  Speaker 3: have Josh Allen, who's not who got who's banged up?
• 19:33
  Speaker 1: Right?
• 19:33
  Speaker 3: He had like three or four things on the injury report.
• 19:36
  Speaker 3: We'll see how healthy he is or can stay during
• 19:38
  Speaker 3: the game against the team that's gonna get a lot
• 19:39
  Speaker 3: of pressure. Kincaid's not healthy, Your receiver room is decimated.
• 19:45
  Speaker 3: You have a bunch of guys who can't get open
• 19:47
  Speaker 3: against man. Broncos played as much man as anybody, and
• 19:51
  Speaker 3: this Bill's offense just did not function at the same
• 19:55
  Speaker 3: level of efficiency against man compared to zone this year.
• 19:58
  Speaker 3: That's not an Allen knock that's hey, our receivers can't
• 20:01
  Speaker 3: get separation. Broncos defense should be as healthy as it's
• 20:06
  Speaker 3: been all year outside of safety. I think that they
• 20:10
  Speaker 3: can give the Bills offense lots of issues. What are
• 20:13
  Speaker 3: the Bills are gonna do here? I think lean into
• 20:15
  Speaker 3: the run game, go with heavier formations. But the Broncos,
• 20:19
  Speaker 3: even against heavier formations have been good. They've been good
• 20:21
  Speaker 3: against quarterback scrambles, the quarterback run game. They match up
• 20:25
  Speaker 3: really well. And then on the other side, it's the
• 20:29
  Speaker 3: Bills who are gonna play. McDermott does a really good
• 20:32
  Speaker 3: job in the playoffs of coming up with game plans
• 20:36
  Speaker 3: that are defensive game plans that are tailored to specific quarterbacks,
• 20:39
  Speaker 3: disguising things very well. But in the end, he's gonna
• 20:43
  Speaker 3: run a lot of too high They're gonna take away
• 20:45
  Speaker 3: explosive plays. That's kind of Nix's game. It's like, inefficient
• 20:49
  Speaker 3: on a down to down basis, hit some explosives, well,
• 20:51
  Speaker 3: the Bills take those away. The Bills also, like I mentioned,
• 20:53
  Speaker 3: play a lot of too highlight of zone been one
• 20:55
  Speaker 3: of the better zone defenses in the league this year.
• 20:57
  Speaker 3: They can't really play man well bow knicks really struggles
• 21:00
  Speaker 3: against zone too high in particular, he's been abysmal and
• 21:06
  Speaker 3: he has the lowest yards per attempt in the league
• 21:08
  Speaker 3: against too high. He just takes those little dinks and dunks.
• 21:11
  Speaker 3: The Bills are going to make them try to work
• 21:13
  Speaker 3: down the field. I think the Broncos are also going
• 21:15
  Speaker 3: to rely on their run game. Clock's going to be
• 21:17
  Speaker 3: running throughout. But ken Bow Nicks, you know, drive the
• 21:21
  Speaker 3: entire field, sustain drives and get into the end zone.
• 21:26
  Speaker 3: Finished drives off with the end zone, with you know
• 21:29
  Speaker 3: having to you know, throw short passes and be accurate.
• 21:33
  Speaker 3: I think it might be tough. So I think both
• 21:35
  Speaker 3: teams are going to play a field position. This is
• 21:37
  Speaker 3: going to be a game where the clock is running
• 21:41
  Speaker 3: and you're gonna have like a lot of let's call it,
• 21:45
  Speaker 3: you know, thirty five forty yard five minute drives that
• 21:50
  Speaker 3: end in punts or long field goals. I just think
• 21:53
  Speaker 3: both defenses match up well. So yeah, I do like
• 21:57
  Speaker 3: the under there. I think it's a good shout out
• 21:59
  Speaker 3: by like the Bills. Only goal in this game should
• 22:03
  Speaker 3: be get to the fourth quarter tight or down three
• 22:09
  Speaker 3: with the ball in Josh Allen's hands, lead like that's it.
• 22:14
  Speaker 3: And that's that's where you have the edge, is that
• 22:16
  Speaker 3: you have Allen versus Nick's late.
• 22:18
  Speaker 2: I'm about to tail you literally live because I was
• 22:20
  Speaker 2: so close to getting in on this earlier and you
• 22:23
  Speaker 2: just convinced me.
• 22:24
  Speaker 5: So I'm literally doing this live.
• 22:27
  Speaker 3: Beautiful.
• 22:28
  Speaker 1: Also for historical context, these two teams have played each
• 22:32
  Speaker 1: other twice in the history of the postseason, and the
• 22:38
  Speaker 1: under has hit both times. Last year I know for
• 22:42
  Speaker 1: certain because the total was around forty eight forty nine.
• 22:45
  Speaker 1: It was a thirty eight point game blowout by Buffalo
• 22:47
  Speaker 1: thirty one to seven. The other one go back to
• 22:50
  Speaker 1: nineteen ninety two. This is an NFL film's dream matchup
• 22:54
  Speaker 1: Jim Kelly's Buffalo Bills against John Elway's Denver Broncos, two
• 22:58
  Speaker 1: of the greatest quarterbacks of all time, ten to seven
• 23:01
  Speaker 1: final score. Buffalo wins, by the way.
• 23:05
  Speaker 3: So you also could get green Law back. You don't
• 23:09
  Speaker 3: remember the Bills ran all over the Broncos last year,
• 23:11
  Speaker 3: but the Broncos linebacker room was in shambles. Could get
• 23:15
  Speaker 3: green Law back, which will help, and Oliver could be
• 23:17
  Speaker 3: back for the Bills. That could be a big boost
• 23:19
  Speaker 3: to the defensive line. So there there's a lot of
• 23:23
  Speaker 3: things worth watching that are that could potentially help us
• 23:27
  Speaker 3: under in both defenses. Also, Brandon cooks under two and
• 23:32
  Speaker 3: a half receptions. He cannot get open against man at
• 23:36
  Speaker 3: his advanced age anymore.
• 23:39
  Speaker 5: Last one age.
• 23:41
  Speaker 1: Actually, yeah, it's.
• 23:43
  Speaker 3: Funny what I call athletes old, like they're too old,
• 23:45
  Speaker 3: but they're still way younger than me.
• 23:48
  Speaker 1: It's a different timeline.
• 23:50
  Speaker 2: Yeah, we were bodies are older than ours.
• 23:53
  Speaker 1: Yes, well, last one. Before we move on, we'll get
• 23:58
  Speaker 1: to our two kings in a queen parlor action or
• 24:00
  Speaker 1: distraction Kendred's witch not being a ball noer kendrap.
• 24:04
  Speaker 2: Okay, So I do have tea about this. She never
• 24:07
  Speaker 2: responded to my DM. I paid her and she literally
• 24:11
  Speaker 2: did not reply to me. So I guess I got scammed,
• 24:17
  Speaker 2: and so did the Jags.
• 24:20
  Speaker 4: So you think do you think she'd watched the Jaguars game,
• 24:24
  Speaker 4: saw it and was like, oh, I'm just guying closing DMS.
• 24:28
  Speaker 5: I gonna go.
• 24:29
  Speaker 2: With no, because I think any girl who is building
• 24:32
  Speaker 2: altars for random strangers requests online is probably not into
• 24:37
  Speaker 2: our Lord and Savior the NFL.
• 24:40
  Speaker 3: I'm seeing this like this is getting popular, like I
• 24:43
  Speaker 3: saw multiple I don't know if this is all my algorithms.
• 24:47
  Speaker 3: We were talking about it, but I saw multiple like
• 24:51
  Speaker 3: tweets about people saying like I'm paying witches for this,
• 24:56
  Speaker 3: or that I might get I mean, this seems like
• 24:58
  Speaker 3: easy money, and you could just play both sides too.
• 25:03
  Speaker 3: This is like the new taut the new Taut game
• 25:06
  Speaker 3: back in the nineties, like the phone touts in the
• 25:09
  Speaker 3: two thousands, you would just give out both sides and
• 25:12
  Speaker 3: then you know, you have a thousand people call you.
• 25:15
  Speaker 3: You've out one side to five hundred, one side to
• 25:18
  Speaker 3: the other five hundred, and then wherever side wins, you
• 25:21
  Speaker 3: call back those five hundred that you gave winners to
• 25:23
  Speaker 3: and then two fifty.
• 25:23
  Speaker 4: Wait, so stucky you think this is the new age
• 25:25
  Speaker 4: boiler room.
• 25:26
  Speaker 3: It's a new age, right, I'm a witch. And then
• 25:29
  Speaker 3: you just you're gonna go fifty to fifty and then
• 25:35
  Speaker 3: you go back to that person says, see see what
• 25:37
  Speaker 3: I did?
• 25:37
  Speaker 5: Okay.
• 25:38
  Speaker 2: So the question is, though, do I caron out and
• 25:41
  Speaker 2: dispute the charge.
• 25:44
  Speaker 1: I don't think I feel like this. I feel like
• 25:46
  Speaker 1: this one's on you.
• 25:47
  Speaker 5: Yeah.
• 25:49
  Speaker 1: So she never responded to anything, or she just hasn't
• 25:52
  Speaker 1: responded since the Jags lost.
• 25:54
  Speaker 5: No, she didn't respond to anything.
• 25:56
  Speaker 2: So like the instructions were to message her, like in
• 26:00
  Speaker 2: the payment of like what you wanted your spell to be,
• 26:04
  Speaker 2: which is what I read on the on our show
• 26:06
  Speaker 2: last week, and she just didn't say anything to me.
• 26:08
  Speaker 2: She's supposed to send a picture of like the altar
• 26:11
  Speaker 2: she builds for you, and she didn't.
• 26:14
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 26:15
  Speaker 3: I mean maybe she was the one who worked with
• 26:17
  Speaker 3: God McDermott to not score, to score on first down
• 26:19
  Speaker 3: to get the Jags the best chance but through the interception.
• 26:25
  Speaker 5: But yeah, yeah, she didn't send me my altar.
• 26:30
  Speaker 2: So I'm gonna go Etsy. Witches aren't canceled, but this
• 26:33
  Speaker 2: particular edsy witch canceled.
• 26:36
  Speaker 3: Yeah wait, how did you find this one? Did you
• 26:38
  Speaker 3: just search?
• 26:38
  Speaker 2: Okay, so I found the most expensive option that was
• 26:43
  Speaker 2: not related to relationships. So pretty much all of them
• 26:46
  Speaker 2: were like how do I get my boyfriend to start
• 26:48
  Speaker 2: buying me flowers? And it was like pay me five
• 26:51
  Speaker 2: dollars and I'll put a spell on him. And then
• 26:53
  Speaker 2: I it was the only one that I could find
• 26:54
  Speaker 2: that was like not like a dollar and like seemed
• 26:57
  Speaker 2: legit and had a bunch of reviews, so I paid
• 26:59
  Speaker 2: extra read reviews, did research and didn't pick a love
• 27:04
  Speaker 2: spell lady, and I still got screwed over and.
• 27:07
  Speaker 1: It was twelve dollars, I believe. Yeah, so you're you're
• 27:11
  Speaker 1: just adding too much vig to the Jags at that
• 27:14
  Speaker 1: point when when you're spending more than ten.
• 27:16
  Speaker 2: Well you know what desper times call for desperate measure. Okay,
• 27:19
  Speaker 2: you wouldn't get it. You're not part of the Sad
• 27:21
  Speaker 2: Cat fan and you turned on them, so like you're
• 27:24
  Speaker 2: just a fair weather fan.
• 27:26
  Speaker 4: I mean, it didn't work for the Panthers or the Jaguars,
• 27:29
  Speaker 4: so it was like a tough WEEKND.
• 27:30
  Speaker 5: Maybe she cursed the sad Cats.
• 27:32
  Speaker 2: Maybe she like has dyslexia and when I said Buffalo Bills,
• 27:36
  Speaker 2: she read curse cats.
• 27:38
  Speaker 1: Well, listen, the Sad Cats. The Panthers were the only
• 27:41
  Speaker 1: cat that covered last week, so perhaps perhaps she did
• 27:45
  Speaker 1: her witchery on the wrong team. Still to come, two
• 27:49
  Speaker 1: Kings and a Queen get nominated in our weekly parlay.
• 27:51
  Speaker 1: But first a word from the first Lady, the master
• 27:55
  Speaker 1: of Witchery, Kendra Middleton.
• 27:57
  Speaker 2: The Favorites podcast is sponsored by Drafting Sports Book and
• 28:00
  Speaker 2: in partnership with DraftKings. Our listeners get a great offer
• 28:03
  Speaker 2: right now new customers can bet five dollars and get
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• 28:06
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• 28:25
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• 28:28
  Speaker 1: We're about to give out some picks Texans Pats, but
• 28:31
  Speaker 1: first big trend on Instagram right now is to put
• 28:34
  Speaker 1: up pictures of yourself. In twenty sixteen, and it had
• 28:37
  Speaker 1: me wondering what was the NFL betting year like? In
• 28:42
  Speaker 1: twenty sixteen. Spreads were on the mark, Favorites went one,
• 28:45
  Speaker 1: twenty six, one, twenty four and one, ats almost dead
• 28:48
  Speaker 1: even fifty to fifty. The Patriots were thirteen and three
• 28:52
  Speaker 1: against the spread, best mark in the NFL. They went
• 28:55
  Speaker 1: on to win the Super Bowl, the one where they
• 28:56
  Speaker 1: famously trailed twenty eight to three. The Browns, naturally, were
• 29:01
  Speaker 1: the NFL's worst at four and twelve. Ats Kendra Stucky,
• 29:06
  Speaker 1: what were your lives like? Have you looked back? I
• 29:09
  Speaker 1: think if I saw on Instagram it was a very
• 29:12
  Speaker 1: blonde Kendra Middleton back in twenty sixteen.
• 29:15
  Speaker 5: Yeah, I was in my gnarious era. I ended my
• 29:18
  Speaker 5: internship at.
• 29:20
  Speaker 2: The game in San Francisco and started my freshman year
• 29:24
  Speaker 2: at Auburn. So I was a freshman in college in
• 29:26
  Speaker 2: twenty sixteen.
• 29:27
  Speaker 5: I was a little baby gal.
• 29:29
  Speaker 1: Well you Stucky, what were you doing in twenty sixteen?
• 29:33
  Speaker 3: Uh? Thing, shit, I'm doing today? Well a little like different.
• 29:36
  Speaker 3: I mean I'm just betting every.
• 29:37
  Speaker 5: Day now you have a kid.
• 29:39
  Speaker 3: Yeah. True, I was living in This was a year before.
• 29:44
  Speaker 3: I mean, this is like the last year of my
• 29:46
  Speaker 3: old life. I was living in Philly. I was working
• 29:50
  Speaker 3: in finance, because twenty seventeen is when I was. I
• 29:58
  Speaker 3: gotta look back on the exact I can look now
• 30:03
  Speaker 3: the exact time I started having conversations about potentially leaving
• 30:10
  Speaker 3: my job to start to help start action and shout
• 30:16
  Speaker 3: out my guy Brian Mead. Let's see, his first DM
• 30:19
  Speaker 3: to me was in I think it was in twenty sixteen,
• 30:23
  Speaker 3: but I could be wrong. No, it was early, early
• 30:26
  Speaker 3: twenties twenty seventeen. So yeah, I mean this I was.
• 30:31
  Speaker 3: I didn't I'd really it was plateaued in my job.
• 30:35
  Speaker 3: I'd just spent all my time betting. I didn't have
• 30:38
  Speaker 3: to do any content. I didn't do any writing. I
• 30:39
  Speaker 3: mean I was posting. I would just tweet my picks,
• 30:42
  Speaker 3: just one tweet. I was betting more sports. I was
• 30:46
  Speaker 3: betting tennis. The market was easier to beat, and a
• 30:50
  Speaker 3: lot of other sports markets just are going to get
• 30:52
  Speaker 3: more efficient with each passing year. But yeah, I was
• 30:55
  Speaker 3: in Philly. I was dating my now wife long distance,
• 31:01
  Speaker 3: and little did I know the next year I would
• 31:06
  Speaker 3: be leaving my career helping start Action, would meet Evan
• 31:14
  Speaker 3: not too long after that, and then we'd move to Lexington, Kentucky,
• 31:21
  Speaker 3: and then now have a kid here in Lexning, Kentucky.
• 31:24
  Speaker 3: So yeah, that was like the last year of my
• 31:27
  Speaker 3: old old life. But still was just betting every day.
• 31:30
  Speaker 3: I'm obsessed with sports and betting.
• 31:32
  Speaker 1: I think the trend right now is that everything was
• 31:34
  Speaker 1: better in twenty sixteen, but the perfect.
• 31:37
  Speaker 5: Amount of technology.
• 31:38
  Speaker 2: That's why it was the perfect amount of technology.
• 31:41
  Speaker 1: I don't know, it sounds like we're all doing better,
• 31:43
  Speaker 1: right now than we were in twenty sixteen.
• 31:45
  Speaker 5: And I think so I peaked.
• 31:46
  Speaker 2: I peaked in twenty sixteen and the chain smokers popped off,
• 31:50
  Speaker 2: so I gotta say, take me back.
• 31:53
  Speaker 3: I was a chain smoker then too.
• 31:56
  Speaker 1: Woh, Evan, what about you? What were you doing in
• 32:07
  Speaker 1: twenty sixteen. I can't remember.
• 32:09
  Speaker 4: I was probably somewhere between the I worked for the NBA,
• 32:12
  Speaker 4: I worked for ESPN, so I can't remember.
• 32:14
  Speaker 3: I was somewhere.
• 32:15
  Speaker 4: I think in between those two gigs, and I was
• 32:17
  Speaker 4: like right before Action got formed. So shout out Chad Melman.
• 32:20
  Speaker 4: But that was part of those early conversations. But yeah,
• 32:23
  Speaker 4: I think that was about right. I think living in
• 32:26
  Speaker 4: New York or in New Jersey at the time and Hoboken,
• 32:28
  Speaker 4: depending on what the gig was.
• 32:30
  Speaker 1: Shout out the Chad original Daddy of the Favorites podcast.
• 32:35
  Speaker 1: I went back and looked on my Facebook memories to
• 32:37
  Speaker 1: see if I could come up with anything. I met
• 32:40
  Speaker 1: Eric Dickerson ten years ago today, famous NFL running back.
• 32:44
  Speaker 1: Of course, he was at a golf tournament that I
• 32:45
  Speaker 1: was at and I got engaged. So those were the
• 32:49
  Speaker 1: two only sixteen memories.
• 32:52
  Speaker 2: You guys are living very different lives to me.
• 32:57
  Speaker 1: But enough of the nostalgia, what about the pre what
• 33:00
  Speaker 1: about the future? And if you're into the present or
• 33:03
  Speaker 1: the future of accessing live sports, it's Sling TV. They
• 33:07
  Speaker 1: offer flexible package options one, three, and seven day passes
• 33:11
  Speaker 1: for access to thirty plus live channels, which includes ESPN
• 33:15
  Speaker 1: and TNT. So you're not only covered for Texans Patriots
• 33:18
  Speaker 1: on Sunday, but also the National Championship between Indiana and
• 33:23
  Speaker 1: Miami on Monday. So let's talk about Texans Patriots. Stuckey,
• 33:28
  Speaker 1: what are you looking at for this slober knocker?
• 33:32
  Speaker 3: Nothing? Really don't. I don't know what to make this.
• 33:36
  Speaker 3: This game's very difficult for me. I do like Schultz overs.
• 33:40
  Speaker 3: I think that that's where the Texans have to attack
• 33:43
  Speaker 3: the Patriots, and I think the Schultz could have a
• 33:47
  Speaker 3: big day for the Texans. I just don't know how
• 33:50
  Speaker 3: to I don't have a good feel for the Patriots
• 33:52
  Speaker 3: and how to properly rate them because their body of work,
• 33:55
  Speaker 3: like my eye test says all ye that may has
• 33:58
  Speaker 3: no weaknesses is a lead. I think that's the case.
• 34:02
  Speaker 3: But he didn't face any top tier defenses until last week,
• 34:06
  Speaker 3: and the whole operation didn't look great, and especially the
• 34:09
  Speaker 3: offensive line, so I worry about that against the Texans
• 34:12
  Speaker 3: defensive line and their ability to get pressure, and then
• 34:18
  Speaker 3: I do I still have questions about the Patriots defense.
• 34:20
  Speaker 3: I know that they I like what they do schematically,
• 34:24
  Speaker 3: but they did they didn't face the competent quarterback all
• 34:26
  Speaker 3: year outside of Josh Allen, who they split with the
• 34:30
  Speaker 3: one of the easiest schedules over the past thirty years.
• 34:32
  Speaker 3: But they finally get Herbert last week and they completely
• 34:36
  Speaker 3: shut him down. But Herbert looked like he also was
• 34:38
  Speaker 3: missing open throws and looked flustered, So I don't even
• 34:41
  Speaker 3: know how much to take from that, So I'm just
• 34:44
  Speaker 3: super confused. I it might be they also the Patriots
• 34:47
  Speaker 3: defense might be able to just employ the same game
• 34:49
  Speaker 3: plan that they did it last week, lots of blitz
• 34:51
  Speaker 3: packages against the bad offensive line and shrouded who really
• 34:54
  Speaker 3: does struggle under pressure and against the blitz. So yeah,
• 35:00
  Speaker 3: I won't have anything on the side or total on
• 35:02
  Speaker 3: this one. I just don't have a great feel for
• 35:05
  Speaker 3: the Patriots was dead or wrong on the Chargers last week,
• 35:09
  Speaker 3: and I'm gonna I'm passing state here side end total.
• 35:16
  Speaker 1: I am having a really hard time with the side
• 35:18
  Speaker 1: on this one. But I did make a bet on
• 35:20
  Speaker 1: this game. I like the Patriots team total under twenty
• 35:24
  Speaker 1: one and a half the Texans allowing seventeen per The
• 35:27
  Speaker 1: Patriots have hit their team total over in five of
• 35:30
  Speaker 1: the last six, so I think that's helping to keep
• 35:32
  Speaker 1: this number nice and plump. The Chargers defense was the
• 35:36
  Speaker 1: best defense they've faced since dating back to pre Halloween,
• 35:39
  Speaker 1: and what did they produce? Sixteen points, zero for three
• 35:44
  Speaker 1: in the red zone, four of eleven on third down
• 35:47
  Speaker 1: heading into last week Pittsburgh, where they allowed just six points.
• 35:52
  Speaker 1: The Texans allow four points per game fewer on the
• 35:56
  Speaker 1: road than they do at home, so that number has
• 35:58
  Speaker 1: only gotten better fifteen her on the road this season.
• 36:02
  Speaker 1: I think this is gonna be a low scoring game.
• 36:04
  Speaker 1: The thing I trust the most in this game is
• 36:07
  Speaker 1: the Texans defense, so I'm gonna bet on that. Kendra,
• 36:10
  Speaker 1: what about you?
• 36:11
  Speaker 2: You guys are crazy. I think Saddan is clairvoyant. I
• 36:15
  Speaker 2: think the Patriots are going to take belt to ass
• 36:19
  Speaker 2: I think Christian Gonzalez is gonna play. I think Tong
• 36:21
  Speaker 2: is gonna play. The fact that Nico Collins is out
• 36:24
  Speaker 2: for this game. The injury report for the Texans is
• 36:28
  Speaker 2: absolutely insane and the Texans offense is just absolutely anemic.
• 36:35
  Speaker 2: And if you take Nico Collins out of that and
• 36:36
  Speaker 2: you still keep Christian Gonzalez in this game, I just
• 36:40
  Speaker 2: I don't know where the Texans are going to score points.
• 36:43
  Speaker 2: And that's what that's what you have to do to
• 36:45
  Speaker 2: win a football game. Their injury report is disgusting. Saddan
• 36:49
  Speaker 2: is clairvoyant.
• 36:51
  Speaker 1: Yes, uber driver. Saddan is the only one so far
• 36:55
  Speaker 1: that has had a strong take on the side. Evan,
• 36:58
  Speaker 1: what about you? Where do you land?
• 37:00
  Speaker 4: Is Saddan mentioned because we haven't mentioned it at all,
• 37:02
  Speaker 4: the word Nico Collins, because I feel like if he's
• 37:05
  Speaker 4: not playing, which it looks like he's not, it's definitely
• 37:07
  Speaker 4: an impact on the offense. I mean, this isn't Pittsburgh's defense.
• 37:10
  Speaker 4: New England's defense much better. I think that's a large factor.
• 37:14
  Speaker 4: I just trying to figure out what they'll look like
• 37:16
  Speaker 4: because it hasn't been on a large sample size without
• 37:18
  Speaker 4: him out there and a lot more attention on the
• 37:20
  Speaker 4: other guys. It's definitely a factor in this one. Then
• 37:22
  Speaker 4: I'm currently trying to figure out a little bit more.
• 37:26
  Speaker 3: I will say the other thing, the two other things
• 37:28
  Speaker 3: worth noting. The Patriots defense was near worse than the
• 37:33
  Speaker 3: league in the red zone in allowing touchdowns and despite
• 37:39
  Speaker 3: playing a laughable schedule of opposing quarterbacks. But last week
• 37:43
  Speaker 3: they get the Chargers. Movable force meets an unstoppable object
• 37:47
  Speaker 3: thing because the Chargers I think are thirtieth in the end,
• 37:50
  Speaker 3: they have a really bad red zone offense. Well guess
• 37:52
  Speaker 3: what we the Patriots ended up winning now right, The
• 37:55
  Speaker 3: Chargers got inside of two twice only came out with
• 37:57
  Speaker 3: three points. The Chargers in Texas, I think the Chargers
• 38:01
  Speaker 3: are thirtieth and the Texans are like twenty ninth to
• 38:04
  Speaker 3: thirty first in red zone offense. If the Patriots get
• 38:06
  Speaker 3: another really poor red zone offense that struggles to finish
• 38:12
  Speaker 3: off dr eyes, which I think can help them. I
• 38:14
  Speaker 3: also think Vrabel is a much much better in game
• 38:24
  Speaker 3: coach and game day coach than Demico Ryans. So when
• 38:29
  Speaker 3: to be aggressive, you know, going forward on fourth downs,
• 38:34
  Speaker 3: making better in game like Vabel's done a lot of
• 38:38
  Speaker 3: very smart He really knows the rules. That's he has
• 38:43
  Speaker 3: Belichick in him, like the game rules and with the clock,
• 38:45
  Speaker 3: and then just some nuanced things that he does throughout
• 38:48
  Speaker 3: a game I think in like a high leverage plub
• 38:50
  Speaker 3: game that could be lower scoring. That could end up
• 38:54
  Speaker 3: being the difference with the Patriots as well.
• 38:56
  Speaker 5: Dome team in the snow as well. I would like
• 38:59
  Speaker 5: to point that out.
• 39:00
  Speaker 1: I feel like the Texans answered the bell on that though.
• 39:03
  Speaker 1: I mean, no, snow is a different animal, but still
• 39:06
  Speaker 1: just being It's not like Pittsburgh was warm last week
• 39:09
  Speaker 1: and their defense was fine and they've been great on
• 39:11
  Speaker 1: the road. I just don't worry.
• 39:13
  Speaker 3: I mean, they are kind of like an outdoor team,
• 39:15
  Speaker 3: like because especially in mcno, nicocollins like, they're gonna have
• 39:20
  Speaker 3: to win this game. If you'd like the Texans, if
• 39:25
  Speaker 3: I told you the Texans won this game, and you
• 39:29
  Speaker 3: you you you went out too hard and you fell
• 39:32
  Speaker 3: asleep for the entire weekend, and you woke up and
• 39:37
  Speaker 3: you called me and I said, the Texans won. The
• 39:39
  Speaker 3: Texans upset the Patriots. What is the first score that
• 39:44
  Speaker 3: pops into your head?
• 39:45
  Speaker 5: Thirteen to ten?
• 39:46
  Speaker 3: Off of it, thirteen ten is what my score would
• 39:50
  Speaker 3: have been.
• 39:50
  Speaker 1: Yeah, sounds about right. Thirteen ten to sixteen.
• 39:53
  Speaker 2: Somebody's scoring ten and Drake may just threw one of
• 39:56
  Speaker 2: those tight window passes on a Wan to B game
• 39:58
  Speaker 2: winning drive and all Shayer runs it back for a
• 40:02
  Speaker 2: pick six. That's exactly That's the way that you could
• 40:04
  Speaker 2: convince me that happened is like a fourth quarter final drive,
• 40:06
  Speaker 2: and he just that that would be my assumption.
• 40:11
  Speaker 1: So to recap, we've got sa'dan I mean Kendra on
• 40:16
  Speaker 1: the Patriots money line, Schultz overs for the tight end
• 40:21
  Speaker 1: of the Houston Texans, and I like the Patriots team
• 40:24
  Speaker 1: total under twenty one and a half points. Sling tv
• 40:28
  Speaker 1: is your solution to instant access to live TV starting
• 40:32
  Speaker 1: as low as four ninety nine. There is not a
• 40:34
  Speaker 1: better time to acquaint yourself with the one to three
• 40:37
  Speaker 1: and seven day passes from Sling TV. Offer applies to
• 40:40
  Speaker 1: Orange one day pass restrictions apply. It's time for the
• 40:45
  Speaker 1: reason you all came here today. Our two Kings and
• 40:48
  Speaker 1: a Queen Parlay get nominated. Right now. We are star
• 41:00
  Speaker 1: starting to run thin on options. We used to have
• 41:03
  Speaker 1: slates that were sixteen games deep. No more. We've got
• 41:07
  Speaker 1: four to choose from here, so curious to see what
• 41:10
  Speaker 1: direction we go in. We've been so sides heavy as
• 41:14
  Speaker 1: this podcast is throughout the course of the season, but
• 41:17
  Speaker 1: a feeling we're gonna need to get creative here. Kendro
• 41:20
  Speaker 1: will start with you what you got.
• 41:22
  Speaker 2: So I'm gonna offer you, guys the Broncos money line
• 41:26
  Speaker 2: or the Bears plus three.
• 41:30
  Speaker 5: I like the Bronco.
• 41:31
  Speaker 2: I know that this is going to be kind of
• 41:33
  Speaker 2: stepping on either someone's toes between the two of you.
• 41:37
  Speaker 5: But like we said, I get all.
• 41:39
  Speaker 2: The statistics of teams on a buy whatever, but like
• 41:42
  Speaker 2: I said, don't overthink it.
• 41:45
  Speaker 5: That's kind of what I'm where I'm at here.
• 41:47
  Speaker 2: The Bills are so injured and Sean Payton has had
• 41:50
  Speaker 2: the time to provide Bonix the A plus game plan,
• 41:53
  Speaker 2: and I think that that is going to be the
• 41:55
  Speaker 2: difference maker here is that Josh Allen and that entire
• 41:57
  Speaker 2: team is so injured. I don't know who he's going
• 42:00
  Speaker 2: to be throwing the ball to this week, and it's
• 42:02
  Speaker 2: basically just going to have to be fuck it. Josh
• 42:04
  Speaker 2: Allen is our running back now, and I just don't
• 42:07
  Speaker 2: know how you win a game in Denver in that situation.
• 42:11
  Speaker 5: And then the Bears.
• 42:12
  Speaker 2: I cannot believe how loud that stadium was, the fact
• 42:16
  Speaker 2: it's going to be so cold, the fact that the
• 42:18
  Speaker 2: Rams have been on the road constantly all the time.
• 42:21
  Speaker 2: I just don't think that I like both home teams.
• 42:24
  Speaker 2: I hate to say it. I know that we like
• 42:26
  Speaker 2: to look for dogs and value and all that stuff.
• 42:28
  Speaker 2: But the Bears, you're getting points with them, whatever, But
• 42:31
  Speaker 2: I don't know how you don't discredit the guys going
• 42:35
  Speaker 2: on the road this week. I just I get the
• 42:36
  Speaker 2: Bills kick the Jags ass last week.
• 42:38
  Speaker 5: But this is where I'm at.
• 42:40
  Speaker 1: I as an easy vote for me because I'm heavy
• 42:42
  Speaker 1: on the Buffalo Bills this week. They're going to be
• 42:44
  Speaker 1: one of my nominees here, so I'm going to discard
• 42:47
  Speaker 1: the Broncos the Bears Rams. I haven't gotten there on
• 42:51
  Speaker 1: a side. But there's the greatest vibe of all of
• 42:57
  Speaker 1: these games that we watched in the Wildcard round was
• 43:00
  Speaker 1: that Chicago home stadium at Soldier Field that might be
• 43:04
  Speaker 1: its own entity in all of this. And Matt Stafford
• 43:09
  Speaker 1: coldest weather game for him. I think the Rams are
• 43:12
  Speaker 1: probably the right side, but there's just something that makes
• 43:17
  Speaker 1: me want to bet Chicago.
• 43:19
  Speaker 2: So correction from production three and a half even better.
• 43:22
  Speaker 1: I will take plus three and a half on Chicago
• 43:25
  Speaker 1: as my vote.
• 43:26
  Speaker 3: I mean, you mentioned that home field and crazy vantage
• 43:28
  Speaker 3: they I mean they were. They put down three touchdowns
• 43:30
  Speaker 3: in the first half to the Packers. So no, I
• 43:37
  Speaker 3: can't bet the Bears here. I like the Rams. I'll
• 43:39
  Speaker 3: get to that in a sex So I technically like
• 43:44
  Speaker 3: the Broncos, but I won't bet them because it's Josh
• 43:49
  Speaker 3: Allen versus bow Knicks and it might just be that
• 43:52
  Speaker 3: simple this week. So I'm going to vote for By
• 43:59
  Speaker 3: the way, have you seen this? It's so funny when
• 44:02
  Speaker 3: you have these big NFL weeks and then you'll have
• 44:06
  Speaker 3: like one stat that goes viral and everyone like talks
• 44:10
  Speaker 3: about it, like the Stafford is one and nine in
• 44:13
  Speaker 3: freezing cold weather. I don't know who started that. First
• 44:15
  Speaker 3: of all, it's so it's the most incorrect stat. I
• 44:18
  Speaker 3: don't even know, Ivan, I don't even know if this
• 44:20
  Speaker 3: is in your primer. I haven't got a round of
• 44:21
  Speaker 3: reading it yet this week. But like Stafford, I think
• 44:24
  Speaker 3: is like four and four in freezing cold games, or
• 44:29
  Speaker 3: like four and five and he's starting for like three
• 44:31
  Speaker 3: hundred multiple times. But have you seen that that went
• 44:33
  Speaker 3: around that, like Stafford is one and nine in cold
• 44:35
  Speaker 3: weather games?
• 44:36
  Speaker 5: I did see this, right?
• 44:38
  Speaker 3: What's completely wrong? Right, Evan? Would you back me up
• 44:40
  Speaker 3: on that.
• 44:40
  Speaker 4: They're talking just rain and snow, which is I guess
• 44:43
  Speaker 4: very specific. I believe with that stat, but it doesn't
• 44:46
  Speaker 4: feel right to me. I mean, the things that I've
• 44:48
  Speaker 4: looked at, he started five games and under thirty degrees,
• 44:51
  Speaker 4: He's two and three. I mean, this would be his
• 44:55
  Speaker 4: coldest game he's ever started in his career. And assuming
• 44:58
  Speaker 4: he you know, Georgia and that whole deal, it's probably
• 45:00
  Speaker 4: college end the Pros. But I mean, I guess the
• 45:03
  Speaker 4: more interesting kleeb Too played at US.
• 45:07
  Speaker 1: Yeah, let's keep in mind to I would think a
• 45:10
  Speaker 1: lot of the cold games that Stafford played in were
• 45:12
  Speaker 1: when he was in the NFC North. The Vikings were great.
• 45:17
  Speaker 1: The Packers were great then, so the Vikings don't.
• 45:22
  Speaker 3: I think it's the biggest thing that I'm worried about
• 45:25
  Speaker 3: there is the how bad the wind is going to be.
• 45:29
  Speaker 3: But I I do think the Rams will be able
• 45:33
  Speaker 3: to do whatever they want on offense, and so I'm
• 45:38
  Speaker 3: gonna vote for whet of those two choices. I don't
• 45:40
  Speaker 3: like either, but you can with the Brandon picks this week.
• 45:45
  Speaker 3: But I'm gonna go with the Broncos. So I guess
• 45:47
  Speaker 3: I'm making Evan, uh lead us to water here.
• 45:53
  Speaker 1: Don't do it. Evan, don't do it. I can't. I
• 45:56
  Speaker 1: cannot log. I cannot log this. If he if he
• 45:59
  Speaker 1: votes for the Broncos, I can't do it.
• 46:02
  Speaker 4: It's a tough one because I kind of like, I
• 46:06
  Speaker 4: kind of like.
• 46:07
  Speaker 3: Both of them.
• 46:09
  Speaker 1: I would like Chicago a little bit higher.
• 46:11
  Speaker 3: I would like Chicago a little bit higher. I'm on
• 46:14
  Speaker 3: the fence.
• 46:15
  Speaker 4: This is a really tough one, especially this time of
• 46:17
  Speaker 4: year when you get to four games, only eight sides
• 46:19
  Speaker 4: and totals difficult to pick between them.
• 46:25
  Speaker 3: Probably I crap.
• 46:26
  Speaker 2: On a stick says this to every single he doesn't
• 46:31
  Speaker 2: do us every single week, you do it, No shame.
• 46:33
  Speaker 4: I say, let let's let's let's do this, let's go,
• 46:38
  Speaker 4: let's go Chicago. But I want to go. I want
• 46:41
  Speaker 4: to buy a higher like it was four four and
• 46:43
  Speaker 4: a half. I want those numbers. I feel like, even
• 46:48
  Speaker 4: if the Rams go up double digits, getting the four
• 46:51
  Speaker 4: to four and a half will be valuable in terms
• 46:53
  Speaker 4: of some sort of chaotic comeback. So that'll be the
• 46:57
  Speaker 4: only way I would advise on chickicgo.
• 47:02
  Speaker 1: We can, We'll buy yep, yep, all right.
• 47:06
  Speaker 5: I rabbits about that blow a gasket because.
• 47:10
  Speaker 3: I want to bet.
• 47:11
  Speaker 4: I want to I want to bet the Broncos. I
• 47:13
  Speaker 4: want to bet the Broncos. I want to bet against Josh.
• 47:15
  Speaker 4: I want to do the whole thing, because yeah, I
• 47:17
  Speaker 4: don't want to bet on Bonnicks like this is. You know,
• 47:19
  Speaker 4: he's not the guy I wanted in this spot when
• 47:22
  Speaker 4: I was going to bet against the walking dead Buffalo Bills.
• 47:24
  Speaker 4: But it's it's it's difficult to stay on Shakir.
• 47:28
  Speaker 5: Are we serious right now?
• 47:31
  Speaker 3: Yeah?
• 47:31
  Speaker 1: I mean, by the way, you can't get the you
• 47:34
  Speaker 1: can buy the plus four and a half to minus
• 47:36
  Speaker 1: one twenty four not a bad price. So yeah, we're
• 47:40
  Speaker 1: gonna do that. That is now. That's now in Stucky
• 47:44
  Speaker 1: your nominations.
• 47:47
  Speaker 3: We're gonna go rams over. Well, first, the first one
• 47:51
  Speaker 3: is Bill's just checking up data prices. Yeah, we can
• 47:54
  Speaker 3: still do forty five and a half. Bill's Broncos under
• 47:57
  Speaker 3: forty five and a half. Talked about the advantag just
• 48:00
  Speaker 3: for both defenses. Think that's going to be just a grinding,
• 48:04
  Speaker 3: low possession, bleeding clock type of game. Both defenses I
• 48:10
  Speaker 3: think have major schematic advantages. The too high for the
• 48:12
  Speaker 3: Bills against bow Knicks the man coverage against Josh Allen
• 48:17
  Speaker 3: and those receivers. Defenses getting healthier, So we'll go under there.
• 48:24
  Speaker 3: Then I'm gonna go Rams over twenty six and a half.
• 48:29
  Speaker 3: This total has come down because of the weather. I
• 48:31
  Speaker 3: don't think the wind is going to be completely devastating.
• 48:34
  Speaker 3: I can't see all where the Rams don't get the
• 48:37
  Speaker 3: twenty seven without flukes. I mean there could be turnovers
• 48:40
  Speaker 3: and things like that. But if you remove the top
• 48:43
  Speaker 3: five defenses. The Rams played on their schedule, so Seattle, Philly,
• 48:48
  Speaker 3: and Houston, and by the way, they should have put
• 48:50
  Speaker 3: up thirty plus against Philly. They did put up thirty
• 48:53
  Speaker 3: eight in one of the games against Seattle. Well let's
• 48:55
  Speaker 3: just remove those games. I mean, the Bears are like
• 48:57
  Speaker 3: a bottom eight or nine defense. They're thirtieth in EPA
• 49:01
  Speaker 3: without turnovers, they're twenty eighth in DVA, twenty six in
• 49:05
  Speaker 3: success rate. I mean, this is you could argue there's
• 49:07
  Speaker 3: a bottom five defense that's still left in the NFL playoffs.
• 49:10
  Speaker 3: But the Rams points versus non top five defenses thirty
• 49:14
  Speaker 3: four to thirty three, twenty seven, twenty three, thirty five,
• 49:17
  Speaker 3: thirty four, forty two, thirty four, twenty eight forty five,
• 49:20
  Speaker 3: forty one, twenty four to thirty seven seventeen. They went
• 49:25
  Speaker 3: theveraging close to thirty three points per game in fourteen
• 49:29
  Speaker 3: games twenty seven plus and eleven of those, and the
• 49:32
  Speaker 3: Bears defense is twenty fourth in points per game allowed,
• 49:36
  Speaker 3: to spite leading the league in takeaways and turnover margin,
• 49:40
  Speaker 3: which there's some looming regression there. I expect both coaches
• 49:44
  Speaker 3: to be aggressive. Rams offensive line trending up. No Edwards,
• 49:50
  Speaker 3: the Rams should be able to run all over the Bears,
• 49:53
  Speaker 3: all over them. I mean without Edwards, they're given up.
• 49:55
  Speaker 3: They're already given up five yards per carry, which is
• 49:57
  Speaker 3: twenty ninth in the league. Without Edwards, it's five point
• 49:59
  Speaker 3: seven would be the worst in the league among every
• 50:02
  Speaker 3: all teams. And we talked about Stafford and the cold.
• 50:07
  Speaker 3: First of all, it's a tiny sample size. Second off,
• 50:09
  Speaker 3: let's let's go back to the most recent they had
• 50:12
  Speaker 3: data point, which is in the playoffs in the snow
• 50:14
  Speaker 3: against the team that went on to win the Super Bowl.
• 50:16
  Speaker 3: And he was great in Philly last year. And the
• 50:19
  Speaker 3: other factor here is the Rams defense is cratering. They
• 50:25
  Speaker 3: over the first twelve week they were first in EPA
• 50:27
  Speaker 3: per play, but they got to face Cooper Rush and
• 50:30
  Speaker 3: the Ravens. They faced CJ. Stroud when he had the
• 50:34
  Speaker 3: offensive lineagers right before the game, and then the first
• 50:36
  Speaker 3: game of the year and they had to switch around
• 50:37
  Speaker 3: their whole offensive line. You know cam Ward in the
• 50:39
  Speaker 3: second start, Spencer Rattler, the Bucks Baker got hurt and
• 50:43
  Speaker 3: it was Teddy Bridgewater, I think for the entire game.
• 50:46
  Speaker 3: So they that the first half of the year they
• 50:50
  Speaker 3: were benefiting from a lot of offensive line quarterback situations. Over
• 50:53
  Speaker 3: the past seven games, they're twentieth in EPA per play.
• 50:55
  Speaker 3: They're giving up a ton of explosives. The Bears offense
• 50:58
  Speaker 3: can hit those explosives. I expect Bears to move the ball.
• 51:00
  Speaker 3: I expect the Bears to put up points that will
• 51:04
  Speaker 3: force the Ram. I don't think the Rams are gonna,
• 51:06
  Speaker 3: you know, go up twenty three to ten and then
• 51:08
  Speaker 3: that's it and then the Bear. We see these Disbars teams.
• 51:11
  Speaker 3: This Bears team can score twenty plus points in the
• 51:14
  Speaker 3: fourth quarter. Mcdaigh knows that, and there's gonna be game
• 51:18
  Speaker 3: pressure on the Rams to keep scoring. So I like
• 51:20
  Speaker 3: the Rams over twenty six and a half points. So
• 51:23
  Speaker 3: Rams over twenty six and a half and the under
• 51:26
  Speaker 3: and Bears Bills. I just too me Broncos.
• 51:29
  Speaker 2: I just bet the under literally on this show, So
• 51:32
  Speaker 2: I think that that is my option.
• 51:36
  Speaker 1: I can definitely get there on both of these. But
• 51:38
  Speaker 1: I'm about to lean into one of my picks is
• 51:42
  Speaker 1: Rams Bears over forty eight and a half. So to
• 51:46
  Speaker 1: diversify my portfolio here, I am going to take the
• 51:50
  Speaker 1: under in Bill's Broncos as well. That'll be my vote.
• 51:53
  Speaker 1: That one was a lot easier. Look at that full
• 51:56
  Speaker 1: agreement that it happens.
• 51:57
  Speaker 3: When you bring some some nice picks of tables.
• 52:00
  Speaker 2: Brant with pres Once again, I hate Kravitz's options.
• 52:02
  Speaker 3: I didn't even look at them yet.
• 52:03
  Speaker 2: I can't wait for these, Like I literally I swear
• 52:07
  Speaker 2: you ate last week. Don't get me wrong, you yupped
• 52:10
  Speaker 2: my but once again, I feel like you're making me
• 52:14
  Speaker 2: choose between Satan and the Devil for entertainment purposes.
• 52:18
  Speaker 1: Well, I mean, I could just copy and paste everything
• 52:20
  Speaker 1: that Stucky just said about the Rams. I'm just looking
• 52:23
  Speaker 1: at it.
• 52:24
  Speaker 5: I just don't get how you guys aren't great about
• 52:25
  Speaker 5: the weather.
• 52:27
  Speaker 3: I am, but the totals come down. So, like I
• 52:29
  Speaker 3: was looking at the under, I mentioned this on the
• 52:31
  Speaker 3: show early this week. I was looking at the under
• 52:33
  Speaker 3: fifty one and a half, but it's moved three points
• 52:37
  Speaker 3: through key numbers, so at forty eight and a half,
• 52:41
  Speaker 3: I could only look at the over.
• 52:42
  Speaker 1: So and that's the exact thought process here, is that
• 52:46
  Speaker 1: we've seen this. This opened at fifty one and a half.
• 52:48
  Speaker 1: I think we're at a bypoint now in the other direction.
• 52:51
  Speaker 1: And the Rams defense, as Stuck you mentioned, has been shaky.
• 52:54
  Speaker 1: They made Bryce Young look like an All Pro last week. Hey,
• 52:58
  Speaker 1: Carolina was perfect in the red zone. The last seven games,
• 53:02
  Speaker 1: teams have scored twenty seven or more five times against
• 53:07
  Speaker 1: the Rams. The Bears drop thirty one last week, and
• 53:11
  Speaker 1: those were less than ideal weather conditions. Their defense can't
• 53:15
  Speaker 1: get stops. Chicago's nearly dead last in every defensive category
• 53:19
  Speaker 1: other than takeaways there, and it's because their dbs are
• 53:22
  Speaker 1: so overly aggressive. That's not gonna work against Adams and
• 53:26
  Speaker 1: Pukinakua linebacker injuries. Kyan Williams, Blake Kram I agree, those
• 53:31
  Speaker 1: guys are gonna go off and both teams. I think
• 53:34
  Speaker 1: this is another factor here that makes me absolutely love
• 53:36
  Speaker 1: the over at this number is that both of these
• 53:39
  Speaker 1: coaches McVeigh and Ben Johnson are two of the most
• 53:42
  Speaker 1: aggressive coaches in the NFL on fourth down among the
• 53:45
  Speaker 1: teams that made it to the playoffs. So this is
• 53:47
  Speaker 1: even including teams that made it into the wildcard round
• 53:50
  Speaker 1: that have been eliminated. Only the Bills attempted more fourth
• 53:54
  Speaker 1: downs than the Rams and the Bears. I love love
• 53:57
  Speaker 1: the over at forty eight and a half. The other
• 54:00
  Speaker 1: one is the Bills now they're point and a half underdogs.
• 54:03
  Speaker 1: My plant the flag was them on the money line
• 54:06
  Speaker 1: on Tuesday, Rinse recycle repeat. I'm not going anywhere on
• 54:10
  Speaker 1: this number. The Broncos three and five against the spread
• 54:12
  Speaker 1: in their last eight games. Evan has Astuteley pointed out
• 54:17
  Speaker 1: on the primer what one Seeds have been doing off
• 54:20
  Speaker 1: of the bye forty three percent since two thousand and three,
• 54:24
  Speaker 1: three and seven against the spread since twenty twenty. The
• 54:27
  Speaker 1: Broncos are twenty fifth in success rate on offense. That
• 54:32
  Speaker 1: is not going to fly in the playoffs. So as
• 54:35
  Speaker 1: good as their defense is, I think this game is
• 54:37
  Speaker 1: going to be close. Who do you want your money
• 54:40
  Speaker 1: on in a close game in the fourth quarter, Josh
• 54:43
  Speaker 1: Allen or Bo Nicks. I will take team I will
• 54:47
  Speaker 1: take at that point, just give me, give me God himself.
• 54:52
  Speaker 1: Josh Allen So Bills plus one and a half Bears,
• 54:55
  Speaker 1: Rams over forty eight and a half. Those are my
• 54:57
  Speaker 1: two nominees. Stucky.
• 55:00
  Speaker 3: Well, we know that Kenja's not going to back the Bills.
• 55:06
  Speaker 3: I'm not either, and I like the over, so I
• 55:07
  Speaker 3: think this is an easy choice. So we go Rams,
• 55:10
  Speaker 3: Bears over forty eight and a half, Broncos Bills under
• 55:15
  Speaker 3: forty five and a half, and the Bears plus four
• 55:21
  Speaker 3: and a half, Alt plus five fifty on DraftKings.
• 55:26
  Speaker 1: Wonderful. Wow, the crown is yours a lot less fighting today.
• 55:31
  Speaker 1: I think that we've really come around as a podcast family.
• 55:34
  Speaker 1: I like when we fight. I do too. I kind
• 55:37
  Speaker 1: of miss it. Take me back to the wild card round.
• 55:39
  Speaker 1: That'll do it for today's episode special Thanks to the
• 55:42
  Speaker 1: producers Gifford Gold, David Payne, Stats Hound, Evan Abrams, the Favorites.
• 55:46
  Speaker 1: We'll be back on Sunday night, right after the Rams
• 55:51
  Speaker 1: and the Bears hopefully hit that over for us. You
• 55:54
  Speaker 1: can catch it right here on the Action Network YouTube page.
• 55:56
  Speaker 1: Thanks for hanging out. We'll see you next time here
• 55:58
  Speaker 1: on the Favorites podcast present.
• 56:00
  Speaker 6: If I draft, I love you guys.
• 56:12
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• 56:16
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• 56:22
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