Latest / The Paul Barron Crypto Show / Massive Rate Hike?🚀Technical Analysis with Evan Aldo

Transcript

Massive Rate Hike?🚀Technical Analysis with Evan Aldo · The Paul Barron Crypto Show

0:00
Speaker 1: Great hikes incoming? Could it be huge? Today? We'll break
0:03
Speaker 1: it all down for you. We're going to have a
0:04
Speaker 1: trader on you don't want to miss it. I want
0:06
Speaker 1: to thank our sponsor today, and of course that is Uphold.
0:09
Speaker 1: If you are holding crypto right now and not earning rewards,
0:13
Speaker 1: you're essentially leaving money on the table. And the reality
0:16
Speaker 1: is in today's market, you need to be able to
0:19
Speaker 1: move instantly. That's why Upholds flexible staking is such a
0:23
Speaker 1: game changer. You can earn weekly rewards automatically on assets
0:27
Speaker 1: you already hold without a lockup. That's most important, You
0:31
Speaker 1: can sell any time. It's the perfect setup for anyone
0:34
Speaker 1: who wants to grow their holdings without losing their exit strategy.
0:39
Speaker 1: Download the Uphold app today and try it for yourself.
0:42
Speaker 1: Let's get started. I want to lead off here with
0:44
Speaker 1: a Tom Lee clip where he breaks down this three
0:48
Speaker 1: phase market because we are seeing the S and P skyrocket.
0:51
Speaker 2: Take a look your call for a three phase market still.
0:56
Speaker 3: Explain to our viewers again what that means.
0:59
Speaker 2: Is we'd each towards seventy three hundred initially. Now we're
1:02
Speaker 2: above that, but I think seventy six yeah, and I
1:05
Speaker 2: think we can get to maybe seventy seven, as high
1:08
Speaker 2: as seventy seven, but I think then we're going to
1:11
Speaker 2: digest a lot of things until October, and that's a
1:14
Speaker 2: new FED share. It's the energy shock. And the third
1:18
Speaker 2: is the IPOs of SpaceX opening anthropic that when the
1:23
Speaker 2: unlocks happen, that's a lot of extra supply. So I
1:26
Speaker 2: think that could pressure stocks in a way that feels
1:29
Speaker 2: like a bear market.
1:31
Speaker 1: Right, So, very interesting statements there. In terms of this
1:34
Speaker 1: three phase timing is going to be very similar. He
1:37
Speaker 1: also talked a little bit about that we are going
1:39
Speaker 1: to see essentially a face melter in twenty twenty seven.
1:43
Speaker 1: I'm going to break this down with Evan Aldo. We've
1:45
Speaker 1: got it. We're actually going to talk about all of those.
1:46
Speaker 1: So Evan, how are you man?
1:48
Speaker 3: I'm doing fantastic. Paul, who's a pleasure I saw to you?
1:52
Speaker 1: Yeah, nice to see you.
1:53
Speaker 3: Hey.
1:53
Speaker 1: We got a potential here, fed raghikes in twenty twenty six,
1:58
Speaker 1: it is rising. You're setting it right at thirty two
2:01
Speaker 1: percent right now before Kevin Warsh does his first FOMC meeting,
2:05
Speaker 1: If in fact we have FOMC meetings anymore, who knows
2:08
Speaker 1: what's going to happen there, fed, But what's your position
2:12
Speaker 1: right now? Do you feel like we're going to see
2:13
Speaker 1: the hike or do you feel we'll see a pause.
2:15
Speaker 4: You know, I have the more optimistic path. When I
2:18
Speaker 4: look at the charts, it looks like yields are going
2:20
Speaker 4: to head down. I think it's highly unlikely you're going
2:23
Speaker 4: to see a hike. I think the moment you get
2:24
Speaker 4: a five percent pullback from the S and P five hundred,
2:27
Speaker 4: that's going to kind of end any speculation of a hike.
2:30
Speaker 4: I also think I Ran is obviously coming to a close.
2:32
Speaker 4: I think that's going to end any speculation of a hike.
2:35
Speaker 4: It's probably going to be a long pause. Maybe just
2:37
Speaker 4: maybe you could get a cut before midterms.
2:40
Speaker 3: I wouldn't even roll that out.
2:42
Speaker 1: So interesting a cut before midterms, Evan all if.
2:45
Speaker 3: The S and P five hundred comes down a little bit,
2:47
Speaker 3: But maybe I'm.
2:49
Speaker 1: Justin Well, that's kind of like what Tom was talking about,
2:52
Speaker 1: is that we could see a bump up to July
2:55
Speaker 1: been a bit of a step back in the S
2:58
Speaker 1: and P, and after midterms a run on this three phase.
3:03
Speaker 1: Of course, one of the key things that would have
3:05
Speaker 1: to happen here is the Iranian deal. You've got now
3:08
Speaker 1: Trump announcing a proposed term on the US Iranian deal.
3:12
Speaker 1: A few key things in here. They're talking about the minds,
3:15
Speaker 1: they're talking about coordinating mind removal, enriched uranium. All of
3:20
Speaker 1: this has to be destroyed, and of course by the
3:23
Speaker 1: US and China now in on this, so that's new.
3:27
Speaker 1: Then of course you have Iran coming and firing back,
3:30
Speaker 1: according to bricks News saying no, it's just this is
3:33
Speaker 1: what he wants, but it's not reality, which is going
3:36
Speaker 1: to be interesting. I think at some point there's got
3:38
Speaker 1: to be an off ramp here. All of this is
3:40
Speaker 1: going to get a little bit crazy. And then, of
3:43
Speaker 1: course you've got situations right now with Trump made so
3:47
Speaker 1: much fun of Obama giving IRANIUS cash, and of course
3:49
Speaker 1: this was talking about the proposed piece deal right now
3:51
Speaker 1: with three hundred billion reconstruction fund going in. So I
3:56
Speaker 1: don't know, man, this is getting crazy in terms of
3:59
Speaker 1: how this plays out out. Do you think we get
4:01
Speaker 1: out of Iran before let's say July, that's in the
4:06
Speaker 1: next thirty days.
4:08
Speaker 3: You know, it's tough to say.
4:09
Speaker 4: I mean, I think that maybe a little bit too soon,
4:11
Speaker 4: but I'd say before the end of August could be
4:13
Speaker 4: a good goal. I think you know you're going to
4:15
Speaker 4: see more negotiations. You know, price gets factored in quickly,
4:18
Speaker 4: so I would say very likely within two months. I
4:20
Speaker 4: would say that question you asked is probably a fifty
4:22
Speaker 4: to fifty that's tough.
4:23
Speaker 3: Yeah, maybe, yeah, I think it's.
4:26
Speaker 1: Going to be a little bit longer unless something really
4:29
Speaker 1: changes in terms of the Iranian's mindset on how they
4:33
Speaker 1: want to exit this. And of course this is all
4:34
Speaker 1: about winning too for Trump. Speaking of that, we've started
4:38
Speaker 1: to see an issue around bitcoin, and Bitcoin of course
4:42
Speaker 1: did a little bit of a bump here. It erased
4:44
Speaker 1: some losses reclaim seventy four at the same time that
4:48
Speaker 1: this announcement was going on. We'll probably see this go
4:51
Speaker 1: another bounce down and bounce up again, as a lot
4:54
Speaker 1: of this seems to be correlated to both the energy
4:56
Speaker 1: and what's happening in Iran. When you chart this right
4:59
Speaker 1: now in the near term, if you gave me a
5:03
Speaker 1: price target for bitcoin into July, so here we are
5:07
Speaker 1: end of May, all of June. Where am I at
5:11
Speaker 1: in July?
5:12
Speaker 4: So I would stay a bit more on the bear
5:15
Speaker 4: side for now, as long as we stay kind of
5:17
Speaker 4: below seventy eight seventy nine K. I would lean more
5:20
Speaker 4: towards the bear side. If you look at where your
5:21
Speaker 4: money flow is going right here, generally downward on your
5:25
Speaker 4: two week and that's generally a bearish pattern. Everything's kind
5:28
Speaker 4: of coming down. You're losing momentum right here, same thing
5:31
Speaker 4: on the weekly. This looks pretty bad as well. You're
5:33
Speaker 4: coming down with money flow, and I think this is
5:35
Speaker 4: going to look like how a lot of bear markets
5:37
Speaker 4: have looked, where this is your weekly two hundred SMA.
5:40
Speaker 4: So and it's cool that you asked about July because
5:43
Speaker 4: you know it's looking like something like this, maybe mid
5:46
Speaker 4: sixties for some type of double bottom, and every single
5:49
Speaker 4: bear market we've bottomed around this kind of area. So yeah,
5:53
Speaker 4: I think that you may come up a little bit
5:55
Speaker 4: in the short term, but I think you're generally as
5:57
Speaker 4: of right now, as long as you stay below these
5:59
Speaker 4: levels seventy seven seventy eight, you're probably more in a
6:02
Speaker 4: bear trend in my opinion, for the next month, only
6:05
Speaker 4: next month, two months, you know, the summer of that area, all.
6:08
Speaker 1: Right, So bear trend on bitcoin. One thing that could
6:11
Speaker 1: really start to spiral this down is an actual rate hike.
6:16
Speaker 1: I want to go to a clip here, because there
6:18
Speaker 1: is some arguments out there and some analysis that maybe
6:22
Speaker 1: it's bigger than what people are expecting.
6:23
Speaker 5: Take a look why at least one hundred basis points?
6:27
Speaker 6: Because if you look at core inflation from where it
6:29
Speaker 6: was before we attacked Iran, it's going to be at
6:33
Speaker 6: least one hundred basis points. So in simple basic math,
6:37
Speaker 6: your real interest rate is collapse one hundred. You'd want
6:40
Speaker 6: to offset that by raising the funds rate at least
6:43
Speaker 6: by that amount.
6:44
Speaker 5: How urgent is your call for at least one hundred
6:47
Speaker 5: basis points? In other words, if the Fed stands pats,
6:50
Speaker 5: which it might very well do for the next couple
6:51
Speaker 5: of meetings, is that going to be a policy mistake?
6:54
Speaker 5: Looking in the rearview mirror.
6:56
Speaker 6: Maybe it's hard to say, because at some point you
6:59
Speaker 6: could make the argument that Kevin worsh is going to make,
7:01
Speaker 6: which I understand, which is an increase the supply side
7:04
Speaker 6: of the economy, shift that aggregate supply curved down into
7:08
Speaker 6: the right. That will increase growth and lower inflation. That's
7:12
Speaker 6: a legitimate forecast. They could wait in the short term
7:15
Speaker 6: because market based expectations inflation expectations are contained, and you
7:20
Speaker 6: haven't seen.
7:20
Speaker 3: An acceleration of wage growth.
7:22
Speaker 6: But Melissa, if either of those two developments change, there's
7:25
Speaker 6: going to be tremendous pressure on the fit to hike
7:27
Speaker 6: as soon as September. I think Kevin moresh would do
7:29
Speaker 6: a very good job, and we'll push back against it.
7:31
Speaker 6: But if the economy is growing reasonably well and inflation's
7:35
Speaker 6: moving further away from target.
7:37
Speaker 3: Why wouldn't you be hiking?
7:39
Speaker 1: Okay, so I'm going to go on record. I don't
7:41
Speaker 1: think he's going to do it. I don't think he's
7:43
Speaker 1: going to pull the trigger, even though US inflation is
7:47
Speaker 1: running hot. You look at all the numbers. I get it.
7:49
Speaker 1: Everybody says this all the time, But in reality, I
7:52
Speaker 1: think it's still a price to measure situation. And when
7:55
Speaker 1: you consider that, and potentially all of the macro environments
8:01
Speaker 1: loosening up is primarily going to be energy, this could
8:05
Speaker 1: change things a little bit. And of course, I guess
8:07
Speaker 1: the question right now, if we got one hundred basis
8:11
Speaker 1: point rate hike, where would you put bitcoin?
8:14
Speaker 3: Oh man?
8:15
Speaker 4: I mean that's first of all, I think it's so
8:18
Speaker 4: highly unlikely you would get one hundred piece, you know,
8:20
Speaker 4: rate hike. I think the price is already starting to
8:22
Speaker 4: factor in maybe one rate hike with all this fear,
8:25
Speaker 4: you know, I mean one hundred basis points. That would
8:27
Speaker 4: be a nightmare, probably somewhere in the fifties, I don't know,
8:29
Speaker 4: high forties.
8:30
Speaker 3: But that's not going to happen, highly.
8:32
Speaker 1: Enlike all right, there you go.
8:33
Speaker 3: I like it.
8:34
Speaker 1: I'm on your side. I don't think it's going to
8:36
Speaker 1: happen at all. Another person I'm on the side of
8:38
Speaker 1: is clarity. But at the same time we're looking at
8:42
Speaker 1: some you know, I would say a little bit more
8:44
Speaker 1: pressure of getting it through. Next wind for digital asset
8:47
Speaker 1: legislation after Congress is twenty thirty. Until then, developers remain
8:53
Speaker 1: exposed in illegal protection. I don't know this. Maybe this
8:56
Speaker 1: is just a little bit of you know, grand standing
9:01
Speaker 1: to a certain extent. But I think with what Lummis
9:04
Speaker 1: is trying to do, do you think what's your percentage
9:06
Speaker 1: on clarity right now?
9:08
Speaker 4: I think sixty forty, you know, sixty five thirty five. Yeah,
9:13
Speaker 4: I think it's a good bet. I think in all
9:16
Speaker 4: likelihood though, they should be able to do it. I
9:18
Speaker 4: don't see why they can't.
9:20
Speaker 3: I mean there's so.
9:22
Speaker 1: Many things that are sticking points. I think the concern
9:25
Speaker 1: right now, at least I have is going to be ethics.
9:28
Speaker 1: Whether they will get it, you know, get the demo
9:30
Speaker 1: or the Republicans in a position where they'll you know,
9:33
Speaker 1: at least reposition on ethics. The other thing that could
9:36
Speaker 1: actually be an interesting is a cbdc's of how that
9:40
Speaker 1: plays out, because of course Besson is all out there.
9:42
Speaker 1: We're not going to have it, you know, we're going
9:44
Speaker 1: to get this through. And you have Besson out there
9:47
Speaker 1: and Patrick went both really pushing hard to try to
9:50
Speaker 1: get this through, maybe get it across the line or
9:53
Speaker 1: something else is out there for sure. Let's jump over
9:56
Speaker 1: to Ethereum Joseph Shalom. We had him on the show
10:00
Speaker 1: not too long ago, and this gets into some of
10:03
Speaker 1: the dats and it's it's a clip on him talking
10:07
Speaker 1: about the burned thesis, and then I want to ask
10:09
Speaker 1: you where the eth chart flows if this happens. Take
10:13
Speaker 1: a look, what.
10:15
Speaker 7: Is the thesis for ethie asseid and why is you know,
10:18
Speaker 7: ethereum not eth Why is that the incorrect take here? Yeah,
10:21
Speaker 7: I think it's the former, but we genuinely believe we're
10:24
Speaker 7: going to see step function increases from stable coins, tokenization
10:29
Speaker 7: and agentic that will create that demand that will trigger
10:33
Speaker 7: the burn. And when that happens and you start seeing
10:36
Speaker 7: ten x, twenty x, fifty x or more transactions on
10:41
Speaker 7: ethereum and the L two's, you're going to end up
10:44
Speaker 7: needing ether as that trustwear to secure the transaction.
10:48
Speaker 1: All right, So he is very bullish for obvious reasons.
10:52
Speaker 1: One of the largest stats out there he's in charge of.
10:55
Speaker 1: He's in alignment with Tom Lee with what BM and
10:59
Speaker 1: R is doing. You look at that and where eth
11:01
Speaker 1: is right now, which is struggling. Would you consider this
11:06
Speaker 1: if the thesis plays out, do you think we would
11:09
Speaker 1: see that kind of all time high run up here
11:12
Speaker 1: on ethereum.
11:13
Speaker 4: You know, it's there's a case to be made for it.
11:17
Speaker 4: So there's definitely a case to be made for it.
11:20
Speaker 4: The thing is, though, right now, it does you know
11:22
Speaker 4: you're you're at such a big decision point right here,
11:25
Speaker 4: right around two thousand. You know, your two week looks
11:28
Speaker 4: really bad. However, sometimes you get lucky with this. If
11:30
Speaker 4: you look right here where we went into the red
11:32
Speaker 4: for the money flow lost momentum, it was actually a
11:34
Speaker 4: nice bottom in September of twenty three und twenty twenty three.
11:38
Speaker 4: So there's that. That's the kind of hail Mary right there.
11:42
Speaker 4: If I had a guess here, I mean, you're kind
11:43
Speaker 4: of losing this point, like it's not looking that great
11:46
Speaker 4: at the moment, potentially dropping down to sixteen hundred these
11:50
Speaker 4: kind of areas. Maybe there's some hope at nineteen hundred.
11:52
Speaker 4: There was a lot of capitulations. So you know, I
11:55
Speaker 4: think if you can hold these lows, you know, get
11:57
Speaker 4: some more momentum there on some of you know, these
11:59
Speaker 4: indicators and kind of hold these areas and break back
12:02
Speaker 4: above twenty one hundred, I would get much more optimistic
12:05
Speaker 4: and potentially get a position in ethereum. Right now, I'm
12:07
Speaker 4: just solely kind of mainly in bitcoin right now, but
12:11
Speaker 4: you know, when you look at eth versus bitcoin as well,
12:13
Speaker 4: we did with this. This was where the capitulation happened.
12:15
Speaker 4: I believe the other day a lot of people capitulated.
12:18
Speaker 4: You get a nice jump up on your two day,
12:20
Speaker 4: so I think it's early. But if you were to
12:22
Speaker 4: hold kind of this area and show some more momentum,
12:25
Speaker 4: and the thing I want to see on this is
12:27
Speaker 4: breaking back above the lows from February, because it's not
12:30
Speaker 4: good that we lost these loads from February. Right here,
12:33
Speaker 4: these areas we didn't want to lose this. We'd want
12:34
Speaker 4: to see us reclaim this and hold this, and then
12:37
Speaker 4: I'd be much more open to that, you know, that
12:40
Speaker 4: trajectory of getting to the new all time high and
12:42
Speaker 4: ethout performing bitwin. But until then, I think you want
12:44
Speaker 4: to be very cautious on etheroreum. Last thing I'll say
12:48
Speaker 4: quickly is this weekly. This is what I'm looking at
12:50
Speaker 4: this to go from red to green. This is a
12:52
Speaker 4: big momentum shift that could potentially happen sometime later summer,
12:55
Speaker 4: and I think that could be a potentially really goodbye
12:58
Speaker 4: for ETH and bitmine.
13:01
Speaker 1: All right, So, Evan, when did you become so bearish
13:04
Speaker 1: on Eth? Because you've been bullish on Eth almost the
13:08
Speaker 1: entire year. Did you just flip this? Did? Was it
13:11
Speaker 1: David Hoffman that did it for you?
13:13
Speaker 3: Was the main thing? Yeah?
13:15
Speaker 4: I mean it's a good, great question, Pall. The main
13:17
Speaker 4: thing is just losing a momentum here. So I mean,
13:20
Speaker 4: I just I'm a more of a moment just losing
13:22
Speaker 4: this low. I was bullish and I got into Eth
13:25
Speaker 4: over here, and we went up and then we went
13:27
Speaker 4: back down. I kind of round tripped and I got
13:28
Speaker 4: out at these areas kind of at the break even
13:30
Speaker 4: point against my Bitcoin holding. So I just don't want
13:33
Speaker 4: to hold you know what I mean, I don't want
13:34
Speaker 4: to hold it if it's just going to keep leading,
13:36
Speaker 4: you know, against bitcoin. But I'll gladly get back in
13:39
Speaker 4: if you re claim these areas and show more momentum.
13:43
Speaker 3: You know.
13:43
Speaker 4: That's kind of my main strategy is a macro allocation swing.
13:46
Speaker 1: Trader Well's jump over to a big IPO coming up,
13:50
Speaker 1: SpaceX now targeting evaluation of one point eight trillion in
13:53
Speaker 1: its IPO according to people out there talking about this,
13:56
Speaker 1: So I mean, maybe it hits it or not. What
13:59
Speaker 1: amazed me was the fact that they did this right here.
14:02
Speaker 1: They waived the profitability rule for SpaceX to basically go
14:07
Speaker 1: for indices now to be able to go into ETFs
14:11
Speaker 1: other funds out there. This is a big deal. This
14:13
Speaker 1: is a big deal. What happens when SpaceX launches and
14:18
Speaker 1: we do see a run up on that? Would you
14:20
Speaker 1: invest in SpaceX right now? The way it's soaking?
14:23
Speaker 3: You know.
14:24
Speaker 4: The thing with a lot of these IPOs is they're
14:26
Speaker 4: fun in the beginning because you always get a run
14:28
Speaker 4: up when it first kind of goes public. So yeah,
14:30
Speaker 4: usually you can get a little run up, and then
14:32
Speaker 4: a lot of the people that have been holding, you know,
14:34
Speaker 4: credit investors that have been holding for many years, they
14:36
Speaker 4: dump it. This is I'm not saying this is going
14:38
Speaker 4: to happen, but a lot of times you see this happen,
14:39
Speaker 4: then you see like a six to twelve month bear market,
14:42
Speaker 4: six to eight month bear market. So I think if
14:45
Speaker 4: I had a guess, again, this is just speculation. If
14:47
Speaker 4: I had a guessed, the real good time to buy
14:49
Speaker 4: SpaceX will probably be early next year or later this year.
14:52
Speaker 4: That's where I think it would be a GOALEWN.
14:54
Speaker 1: Past the IPO entry, Let's go to a clip real quick,
14:57
Speaker 1: because this is talking about how this pomp for SpaceX
15:02
Speaker 1: might be deliberate. Take a look.
15:03
Speaker 8: The interesting nuance with regards to SpaceX is not that
15:06
Speaker 8: it's going to sell off post IPO, if we are
15:08
Speaker 8: expecting that as our base case. It's the fact that
15:10
Speaker 8: Tesla SpaceX merger is starting to become priced in because
15:13
Speaker 8: of the ownership stake, and I know Elon's targets of
15:16
Speaker 8: wanting to have over twenty to twenty five percent ownership
15:18
Speaker 8: in Tesla to be able to influence the direction that
15:20
Speaker 8: company goes. I think he controls like eighty percent of
15:22
Speaker 8: the voting power in SpaceX. The pumping of SpaceX the
15:25
Speaker 8: two trillion dollar valuation, I think is deliberate so that
15:27
Speaker 8: they can have leverage to do the merger of equals.
15:29
Speaker 8: At this point, SpaceX is even bigger than Tesla, which
15:31
Speaker 8: would thereby give Elon even more control. Otherwise, Elon will
15:35
Speaker 8: try to rush through as quickly as possible after IPO
15:38
Speaker 8: so as to capitalize on that momentum. Because if you
15:41
Speaker 8: have a big fade out of the stock, he loses
15:44
Speaker 8: some of that leverage, and so it behooves him to
15:46
Speaker 8: be as quick as possible so that SpaceX maintains a
15:50
Speaker 8: higher market captain, Tesla maintains the negotiating leverage there, and
15:53
Speaker 8: ultimately Elon will have more control when they do merge.
15:56
Speaker 8: So I think it's going to be IPO immediately leading
15:59
Speaker 8: into merger COMversations or rumors. Portably, they're aft days, not months.
16:04
Speaker 1: I'm in agreement. I think they will merge. I don't
16:07
Speaker 1: know if it'll be that fast, but if it is.
16:09
Speaker 1: I mean that would be wow. Would you be owning
16:11
Speaker 1: Tesla right now in that kind of condition.
16:15
Speaker 4: Yeah, you know, Tesla's interesting, and I think it could
16:17
Speaker 4: be somewhat attractive. The first thing I'll say about this is,
16:20
Speaker 4: I mean, inevitably this is going to hit six hundred
16:22
Speaker 4: and then probably eventually nine hundred. You know, by the
16:25
Speaker 4: end of this decade. You know, if you can hold this,
16:26
Speaker 4: you'll get a good return. I think that's highly highly likely.
16:29
Speaker 4: You'll eventually break upward. I mean short term. Sure, you
16:32
Speaker 4: can dilly dally around, maybe come back to you know,
16:34
Speaker 4: three ninety or something. It's hard to say, but Tesla
16:37
Speaker 4: versus because you know, obviously if you're buying Tesla, you
16:39
Speaker 4: want to up from the Nasdaq. This has been lackluster
16:42
Speaker 4: against the Nasdaq for you know, a while now, really
16:45
Speaker 4: since you know, twenty twenty twenty twenty one. Here, I
16:48
Speaker 4: think you're hitting a pretty decent area at this point,
16:51
Speaker 4: and I think you might see a jump against your
16:54
Speaker 4: NASDAK right now. So I thinka's Tesla's an attractive buy
16:57
Speaker 4: as long as you kind of hold you know, these lows.
17:00
Speaker 4: It's the NASDAC from April this year or so, I
17:03
Speaker 4: like Tesla.
17:03
Speaker 1: Yeah, okay, there you go, liking Tasla. What would you
17:07
Speaker 1: say a probability of the merger would be are you
17:11
Speaker 1: are you as confident as I am? Or are you
17:13
Speaker 1: more on them?
17:14
Speaker 8: Yeah?
17:14
Speaker 4: I mean it probably Yeah, I mean seventy eighty. You know,
17:18
Speaker 4: it's hard to say, but yeah, I think what you
17:20
Speaker 4: said makes sense. It'll probably merge.
17:22
Speaker 3: Yeah.
17:22
Speaker 1: Yeah. Sailor tweets out CFTC guidance advances the bitcoin capital markets.
17:28
Speaker 1: This is talking about their twenty four to seven bitcoin
17:31
Speaker 1: collateral on PERP futures. This changes the game maybe for
17:35
Speaker 1: micro strategy strategy in general. Would you what about strategy
17:41
Speaker 1: right now? Evan, is this still an investment play that
17:43
Speaker 1: you would go with or are you looking for an
17:45
Speaker 1: entry on strategy?
17:47
Speaker 4: I think strategy is pretty attractive right now at these
17:51
Speaker 4: prices that are around one point fifty is pretty attractive.
17:53
Speaker 4: You definitely could come back down, Like if I had
17:56
Speaker 4: a guess here, I would probably tell you that we'd
17:58
Speaker 4: come back down to like one twenty something. But I
18:00
Speaker 4: still think it's a pretty attractive buy. You know, right
18:03
Speaker 4: around one fifty, your momentum is coming up, Your money
18:05
Speaker 4: flow momentums coming up, and you're two day right here.
18:07
Speaker 4: It could be a little premature. Maybe wait a month.
18:09
Speaker 4: That would probably be a really good entry if I
18:11
Speaker 4: had a guess here strategy, I mean, the number one
18:13
Speaker 4: thing we're trying to do with strategy is obviously up
18:15
Speaker 4: perform bitcoin.
18:16
Speaker 3: If you look at strategy versus.
18:18
Speaker 4: Bitcoin, I think if I had to, you know, make
18:20
Speaker 4: an estimate here, I think the bottom for strategy versus
18:23
Speaker 4: bitcoin it was February. Maybe in the next month you
18:26
Speaker 4: come back down to somewhere over here. But I think
18:28
Speaker 4: you're going to generally make higher lows on this chart
18:31
Speaker 4: as you did, you know, all the way from twenty
18:33
Speaker 4: twenty two to twenty twenty four. So I think you
18:36
Speaker 4: got at least a year to two years of you know,
18:38
Speaker 4: probably two years of strategy up performing bitcoin.
18:41
Speaker 3: So yeah, I think it's a good buy.
18:42
Speaker 1: All right, there you go, long term hold on strategy
18:45
Speaker 1: for that one. Hyper Liquid has been absolutely stellar on
18:49
Speaker 1: the charts. There's some reasons. Now we saw another pump
18:53
Speaker 1: on hyper liquid, and for this reason right here the
18:56
Speaker 1: CFTC's actions approval of the first US listed Purpse derivative contracts.
19:00
Speaker 1: So this of course was clarified, and now we have
19:04
Speaker 1: hyper liquid actually showing it on the chart itself. When
19:08
Speaker 1: you consider hyper liquid right now and where it is today,
19:12
Speaker 1: I want to go to the chart real quick because
19:14
Speaker 1: I'm going to show the Gaussian trail on this that's
19:17
Speaker 1: going to show you this is the only pretty much
19:19
Speaker 1: the only chart that has been in the green. If
19:21
Speaker 1: you look at let's just go down through. If you
19:24
Speaker 1: look at Bitcoin not performing obviously, eat same situation, Solana XRP,
19:33
Speaker 1: even avalanche going into what we're talking about here in
19:37
Speaker 1: terms of performance.
19:39
Speaker 3: Hype.
19:40
Speaker 1: How long before this thing turns around or do you
19:42
Speaker 1: think this continues to track up? I mean after you know,
19:47
Speaker 1: kind of really going into the stratosphere at around sixty
19:50
Speaker 1: six dollars right now.
19:52
Speaker 4: Yeah, there's you know, there's always the saying, I'm sure
19:55
Speaker 4: you've heard, Paul, there's always a bull market somewhere. This
19:57
Speaker 4: has been the bull market as bigcoin has gone down.
20:00
Speaker 4: I mean, it's breaking upward. Your your next major target
20:02
Speaker 4: is eighty dollars. I'm not seeing any major reason to
20:05
Speaker 4: believe it's going.
20:06
Speaker 3: To you know, dump down, you know, anytime soon.
20:09
Speaker 4: So if I had a you know, if I had
20:11
Speaker 4: to make an estimation here, probably eighty Bucks does look likely.
20:15
Speaker 4: You know, I do think if Bitcoin really tanks and
20:17
Speaker 4: loses seventy k soon, you know, this probably would go
20:19
Speaker 4: down too. But as of right now, it seems like
20:22
Speaker 4: you're probably going to hold fifty eight fifty seven and
20:25
Speaker 4: break upward to eighty. I would get more bearish if
20:27
Speaker 4: you I would say, lost fifty six. But you know,
20:30
Speaker 4: right now, your momentum is still there. I don't think
20:33
Speaker 4: there's a reason to believe this is going to correct
20:36
Speaker 4: just yet. You're probably going to You're probably going to eighty.
20:38
Speaker 3: So yeah, well.
20:39
Speaker 1: And you have to remember this has been really marketed
20:43
Speaker 1: heavily by bit wise. Bit Wise has talked about it,
20:46
Speaker 1: We've talked about it with Matt before. They're out there
20:49
Speaker 1: doing a full podcast blitz right now on it, so
20:51
Speaker 1: it's getting more exposure to institutional and then you have
20:55
Speaker 1: all these news drops and of course purpose is you know,
20:58
Speaker 1: absolutely exploding. The real question is does Solana get into
21:02
Speaker 1: a position where they can compete on perpetuals. That'll be
21:07
Speaker 1: the question right there. And if you just look at
21:08
Speaker 1: the hype dat right there, it's the only one that's
21:10
Speaker 1: starting to perform right there right now. That's crazy.
21:15
Speaker 3: Wow. Yeah, yeah, it's.
21:17
Speaker 1: Nuts right now when you look at Solana, though, I
21:20
Speaker 1: want to go in on Solana, and when you look
21:24
Speaker 1: at the Salona chart and you think about all of
21:27
Speaker 1: the things that are happening with Seul right now in
21:29
Speaker 1: terms of perpetuals, especially, where would you put Solana at
21:34
Speaker 1: the end of the year right now?
21:37
Speaker 4: Oh man, that's a great question. I mean, I think
21:39
Speaker 4: that Solana. Let's map this out. So I think there's
21:42
Speaker 4: you know, Solana is probably going to come back to
21:44
Speaker 4: seventy six, you know, in the next month two months.
21:46
Speaker 4: I would guess there's possibility could hold here sure, or
21:49
Speaker 4: maybe even scare a lot of people wagh seventy four.
21:51
Speaker 4: But end a year, I think there's a good shot.
21:53
Speaker 4: You know, you come down in June, July, correct a bit.
21:56
Speaker 4: End of year, I do think, you know, September, October, Bucks,
22:00
Speaker 4: I would hope for maybe.
22:01
Speaker 3: Even a hundre cup.
22:03
Speaker 4: Okay, yeah, I think you know, it could break upward.
22:06
Speaker 4: I mean it's hard to say that you could if
22:08
Speaker 4: big one goes up to like ninety k, which I
22:10
Speaker 4: think it might, I could see one ten, you know,
22:12
Speaker 4: some area like that, you know, end of year.
22:14
Speaker 1: So all right, even with this news. I mean you've
22:18
Speaker 1: got Calshi lonching, the PERP futures down the US. This
22:21
Speaker 1: is of course all going to be tied into Solana.
22:23
Speaker 1: This is big.
22:24
Speaker 3: Don't you think it could go higher? Yeah?
22:27
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean it could go well, you know, I
22:29
Speaker 4: mean your technical target. You know, from a technical perspective,
22:32
Speaker 4: you would have your technical target by end of a
22:33
Speaker 4: year would be okay, one twenty Yeah, I mean, you know,
22:36
Speaker 4: looking at this some more one twenty, I would say,
22:38
Speaker 4: I don't know about so much higher or how far.
22:40
Speaker 1: Back does that go in terms of that sell off
22:43
Speaker 1: that happened with Solana back.
22:45
Speaker 4: The sell off from from here from Yeah, that's sixty seven,
22:49
Speaker 4: so it'd be a double from there, you know, something
22:52
Speaker 4: like that. You do have a trend line, I mean, yeah,
22:55
Speaker 4: it could go higher, man, I mean it's tough to say.
22:57
Speaker 3: I mean one thirty.
22:59
Speaker 4: You know, if you're trading on fundamentals, it would give
23:01
Speaker 4: you higher numbers than technicals.
23:02
Speaker 1: I would say, yeah, is there a window? Are you
23:04
Speaker 1: invested in Solana right now? Are you buying it?
23:06
Speaker 4: Not at the moment, but I'm getting close because I
23:09
Speaker 4: want to you know, I have Bitcoin and I want
23:11
Speaker 4: to really have a good reason to convert my bitcoin
23:13
Speaker 4: over to Salona. And obviously, you know, I want to
23:16
Speaker 4: see a little bit more momentum here. Right now it
23:18
Speaker 4: still keeps bleeding against bitcoin. But if we can break
23:20
Speaker 4: above this area and show some more momentum against bitcoin,
23:24
Speaker 4: you know, have things look a lot better on the
23:26
Speaker 4: weekly here, then I would. I would could definitely get
23:29
Speaker 4: pick up some Slana. As of right now, I'm still waiting,
23:32
Speaker 4: but I'll get in.
23:33
Speaker 1: Don't worry, I'll get in. Don't worry. All right, man,
23:37
Speaker 1: We're going to cover this in a lot more next week.
23:39
Speaker 1: We've got a line of new guests for you guys,
23:42
Speaker 1: so be on the lookout a lot of new topics
23:45
Speaker 1: that I think you're going to be interested. If you
23:46
Speaker 1: guys want to check out evan Aldo's YouTube channel, you
23:49
Speaker 1: can do that just by searching evan Aldo over there
23:52
Speaker 1: doing are you still daily live or what's the flow
23:56
Speaker 1: now of time?
23:57
Speaker 3: Most days are live. Try to go live around noon midday.
24:01
Speaker 4: You get some viewers who lives, do pre recorded videos
24:04
Speaker 4: a couple of times a week as well, market updates,
24:06
Speaker 4: and then some blogs here and there.
24:07
Speaker 3: So it's a fun t like it.
24:09
Speaker 1: Evn thanks so much for coming in today.
24:11
Speaker 3: We appreciate it always.
24:12
Speaker 4: Another of Paul great talking to you.
24:20
Speaker 1: If you like this video, like and subscribe, drop a
24:23
Speaker 1: comment down below, and also join our free private member group.
24:27
Speaker 1: The link is in the description.