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MLB ALCS/NLCS + NHL + NCAAF Friday 10/17/25 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:01
  Speaker 1: Yep. Inside, I want to kill myself. We're on OWN
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: seven run over the last two days after tonight.
• 0:09
  Speaker 2: It was just complete bullshit.
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: So that's that's what I'm gonna start off this show.
• 0:13
  Speaker 1: Horrible Sunday one and five. I don't even know what
• 0:16
  Speaker 1: to tell you about that.
• 0:18
  Speaker 2: I just don't want to do this anymore.
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: I have never seen anything like this. Man with the
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: slump continuing. Two straight losses, not a good day at all.
• 0:27
  Speaker 2: Own four that.
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: Have not had a good season. Man with wookends the
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: slump that I'm on, and the slump continues.
• 0:37
  Speaker 2: I've reached a new peak. Actually, I'm going to burn.
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: My Bruins hack Man, I don't know what is going
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: on with the Bruins.
• 0:45
  Speaker 2: March Hape, is that what it is? I don't even
• 0:47
  Speaker 2: know it's March ninth. I think who even knows? Man,
• 0:51
  Speaker 2: I don't know what data is anymore. But I don't
• 0:54
  Speaker 2: even know what data is anymore.
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: Man, back with you after the worst day that I
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: could possibly have, Back with you as I always am.
• 1:02
  Speaker 2: Until I die, at least oh and two.
• 1:05
  Speaker 1: Yesterday and yesterday it did not go well for me.
• 1:08
  Speaker 2: Own five.
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: The worst month that I've ever had in my eighteen
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: years doing this.
• 1:14
  Speaker 2: I don't know what to even tell you about this anymore.
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: To the slump, Yes, the slump discontinues, the slump continues.
• 1:21
  Speaker 2: Somebody fucking kill me, please.
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: I don't even know what I should do at this point,
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: other than potentially end it all. What's up, everybody, It's
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: towed back with you for better off dead. Friday, October seventeenth,
• 1:40
  Speaker 1: one to zero on the Show yesterday, Winnipeg Jets fairly
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: easy win. Maybe should have been a little bit less selective, man.
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: It seems like if I just like kind of splash
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: the board, I do better.
• 1:51
  Speaker 2: I don't know.
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: Winnipeg was solid. I mean, neither team actually had a
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: lot of shots in that game. Was kind of crazy
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: that Winnipeg got as many goals as they.
• 1:59
  Speaker 2: Did, but.
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: High percented shots, I guess. I mean, I don't know, man,
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: it seems like it was a game that should have
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: been lower scoring than that, but they got the win. Anyway.
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: I was correct about Edmonton or some of the or
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: not Edmonton, the Islanders against Edmonton. I forget what some
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: of the other leans were that I had. The college
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: football game wound up being correct, although it was close
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: Tulsa got in within that number.
• 2:24
  Speaker 2: They lost by fourteen, so they covered.
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: If anybody played that one based on my recommendation, I
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: actually wound up picking the Cincinnati Bengals and pick them,
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: which you know, I mean, I apologize for not having
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: that one nailed down. You That was a really difficult
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: read for me, so I just wait. I watched like
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: the late market read, and that was what pretty much
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: decided where I was going to go with the pick
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: on that one. That was not gonna be a game
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: that was gonna get my money though, which hopefully.
• 2:51
  Speaker 2: I made pretty clear on the show.
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: But also, I mean the stat that Jeffrey pointed out
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: with the Tomlin was just terrible. On Thursday night also
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: saw another stat where Joe Flacco was actually really good
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: against Mike Tomlin. So I don't know all those things
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: to be considered getting the underdog price at home, I
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: was like, yeah, I think we got to do it
• 3:11
  Speaker 1: that way. Jeffrey, speaking of which, what's up man, Stacks,
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: what's up man? Yeah, it looked like Pittsburgh was gonna
• 3:19
  Speaker 1: start running away with that game early. I think they
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: were up ten to nothing almost right out of the gate,
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: and then the game got way closer. Cincinnati actually flipped
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: it to a ten point lead of their own. I
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: think of the fourth quarter. That game was a crazy game, dude.
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: It came down to the end, and then Pittsburgh probably
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: should have won the game, Like they lost the turnover battle,
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: and that's pretty much why.
• 3:38
  Speaker 2: They lost the game.
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: Both aged quarterbacks actually did fairly well, except Aaron Rodgers
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: did have two interceptions, which was somewhat the difference in
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: the game. One of them was his fault, the other
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: wasn't really, so yeah, that was Those turnovers are kind
• 3:53
  Speaker 1: of the difference in the game, to be honest. Then
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: Rogers had that one ridiculous passing play late in the
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: fourth quarter, but the problem was they scored too quickly
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: like that was to take the lead back for Pittsburgh.
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: They left way too much time on the clock and
• 4:07
  Speaker 1: it looked like they were almost still gonna win the
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: game after they sacked Flacco on that like what might
• 4:14
  Speaker 1: have been the final or yeah, basically was the final
• 4:17
  Speaker 1: drive there for Cincinnati. But Cincinnati was able to still
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: get a pass off to Chase and he had like
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: a huge run after the catch to get like huge
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: yardage there and continue to drive they wound up getting
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: to field goal range to win the game on that
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: and t Higgins with a very smart play at the
• 4:35
  Speaker 1: end of that game to get down because it was
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: a play where it looked like he could have potentially
• 4:38
  Speaker 1: just run in for its touchdown, but he decided to
• 4:41
  Speaker 1: slide down so that his team could take almost all
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: the rest of the time off the clock and then
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: kick the field goal. Very heads up play by Higgs.
• 4:50
  Speaker 1: I think it was Higgins on that catch there.
• 4:53
  Speaker 2: That was.
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: Yeah, it was an interesting game. I was kind of
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: rooting for Aaron Rodgers, but you know, I don't know.
• 5:00
  Speaker 1: Some things don't quite look I mean, I don't mind
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: Joe Flacco either. It's some things don't look quite right
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: there with Pittsburgh, like team chemistry wise, I don't know.
• 5:08
  Speaker 2: Man like Rogers, Uh, I don't know. He was definitely
• 5:11
  Speaker 2: like I.
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: Mean, as a quarterback should do. He was getting mad
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: at like Jalen Warren at one point for running the
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: wrong route like I think Warren like ran like what
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: he thought was gonna be a flea flicker when it
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: wasn't a flea flicker.
• 5:22
  Speaker 2: I don't know what that was. And then.
• 5:25
  Speaker 1: Uh, there was the other play where after the huge
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: touchdown that Rogers threw, one of his huge offensive linemen
• 5:34
  Speaker 1: I think basically tackled him, which you don't want to
• 5:37
  Speaker 1: do that. It's like a forty something year old you
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: can injure the guy and the and Rogers like shoved
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: him off and like flipped out and like, I don't know,
• 5:45
  Speaker 1: I think Rogers was kind of in the right on
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: that one, Like you don't aggressively tackle your quarterback, Like
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: what the fuck? It's like, uh, you see people get
• 5:54
  Speaker 1: mad about that and like, uh, practice and stuff when
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: you're not supposed to You're not supposed to hit your
• 5:58
  Speaker 1: own quarterback like to that extent. So I don't know,
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: it's kind of ridiculous. The Icy Hot Bowl, Yeah, that's right.
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: The the ben Ga Bowl. It was an interesting game.
• 6:10
  Speaker 1: Both quarterbacks did put up pretty good numbers though, like
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: Flacco had a lot of pass attempts, he had a
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: lot of yards. Rogers didn't have as many pass attempts,
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: but put up some decent stats in the game. I
• 6:22
  Speaker 1: think Rogers had four touchdowns and Flacco had three. But
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: Flacco also I don't think I had an interception. Yeah,
• 6:30
  Speaker 1: let's get into today. I'm gonna have one play. It's
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: gonna be in hockey. We're gonna be very selective again.
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: I have one game that I almost was gonna play
• 6:40
  Speaker 1: in college football, Like I thought it was gonna be
• 6:42
  Speaker 1: a play, and then I looked into it and I'm like,
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: it's like.
• 6:44
  Speaker 2: Right on the border line. So we'll talk about all that. Yeah,
• 6:49
  Speaker 2: I don't know. I mean, we can get into it.
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: Man, we do a baseball which I don't really want
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: to have anything to do with these baseball games today. Crazy.
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: The road teams have been winning, like all these games, man.
• 6:59
  Speaker 1: The only game so far not won by the road
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: team was the Dodgers winning at home last night. Ben
• 7:08
  Speaker 1: Gay would be Roethlisberger against Borrow. But oh yeah, because
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: oh because it's Ben versus versus the guy who's gay.
• 7:15
  Speaker 2: I get it. That took me a second. I was like, wait, what, Yeah,
• 7:18
  Speaker 2: that does make sense. I like it.
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: All right. Yeah, Toronto and Seattle is gonna be the
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: first game up here though. Toronto even the series is
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: the road team has won every game in the series,
• 7:31
  Speaker 1: which not what you would expect really, because these teams
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: are both better at home than on the road. That
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: remains the case. But Seattle is in trouble now, Man,
• 7:41
  Speaker 1: After they won the first two games on the road,
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: I thought that the series was essentially over. All Seattle
• 7:46
  Speaker 1: really had to do was win one of the next
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: two games, and they couldn't do it. They couldn't beat
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: Max Schurzer last night. Even though he got into trouble
• 7:54
  Speaker 1: numerous times. He had four walks in like five innings,
• 7:57
  Speaker 1: five and a third innings or something. He still was
• 7:59
  Speaker 1: able to somehow get his way out of it though,
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: with his veteran nature, I guess, and making smart pictures
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: at the right times. Luis Castillo, I almost think they
• 8:10
  Speaker 1: pulled Castillo too early in the game, man, when he
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: walked the bases loaded and they pulled them, he might
• 8:15
  Speaker 1: have been able to get out of that with the
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: same amount of damage. They wound up along one run
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: in that inning, and because they pulled them then it
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: was just Seattle bullpen from then on, and that was
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: a huge problem because now their bullpen is used up
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: coming into this game.
• 8:28
  Speaker 2: It's not good, Man, even though Toronto.
• 8:30
  Speaker 1: Has the somewhat worse of these two bullpens, look at
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: the bullpen usage yesterday. Toronto's was lighter, although they did
• 8:37
  Speaker 1: use some of their better relief pitchers yesterday Seattle kind
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: of also did, so neither team is really in Seattle's
• 8:46
  Speaker 1: like really the only good relief picture they had they
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: didn't use, I would say his moonyos. So Seattle's bullpen
• 8:52
  Speaker 1: is in somewhat worse shape coming into this because they
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: used more of it yesterday.
• 8:57
  Speaker 2: Still don't think they should have taken.
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: Castillo out that early, man, I mean, kind of surprising
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: to see him not do that well, but they kind of.
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: If they had left him in, maybe he would have
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: settled down again and still done Okay, Maybe could have
• 9:07
  Speaker 1: worked out of that inning only allowing one rotten or something,
• 9:11
  Speaker 1: or maybe even two, and then maybe they still would
• 9:12
  Speaker 1: have been better off because the bullpen.
• 9:15
  Speaker 2: Allowed more runs.
• 9:16
  Speaker 1: I don't know, man, Dirty Sock, what's up? Thanks for
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: hanging out again, Dirty Sock. I believe one a gigantic parlay.
• 9:25
  Speaker 1: I think he was telling me. He was telling me
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: a huge parlay win for him with a couple of
• 9:30
  Speaker 1: my picks and some of his own, which I usually
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: recommend against parlays when you're doing it for like a
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: small amount, just you know, for some fun, maybe try
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: to hit it big. Yeah, I mean, why not have
• 9:40
  Speaker 1: some fun with it, but don't They don't give you
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: good enough odds on the parlays. But when it does hit,
• 9:47
  Speaker 1: obviously you do win a decent amount out of it.
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: But yeah, Toronto at Seattle today, Toronto does have the
• 9:54
  Speaker 1: better of the two offenses. As we've seen Toronto hitting
• 9:57
  Speaker 1: really well even though they're in this pitcher friendly park here.
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: They got Kevin Gossman back on the mound here. Who
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: was the guy. He's like their number one starter. He
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: started Game one in the series. Three point five nine
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: r RA, one point zero six whip on the season. Uh.
• 10:12
  Speaker 1: He was actually good on the road as well, three
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: point three to three yr in the road. He's made
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: two starts in the postseason, went five to two thirds
• 10:20
  Speaker 1: innings and each of them allowed three combined runs.
• 10:22
  Speaker 2: Against the Yankees and then against Seattle.
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: He picked up a win against the Yankees, took the
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: loss in the Seattle game in the same starting pitching
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: matchup that we have today was the matchup in Game one,
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: so Seattle did win that one of those. Gossman was
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: not bad in the game. He had five strikeouts, one walk,
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: all out, two hour in runs, three hits.
• 10:41
  Speaker 2: He was solid.
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: Uh.
• 10:42
  Speaker 2: He has solid numbers against Seattle as well.
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: One hundred and fifty five at bats UH forty two
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: to ten, strikeout walk ratio two thirty two. Batting average
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: allowed six sixty six ohps is a little bit evil,
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: but Gossmin's numbers are good against them. The only hit
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: a really on Seattle that really does a lot of
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: damage against him is cal Rawley, who has four home
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: runs off him. Other than that, not a ton of
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: hitting from this Seattle offense against him, So he might
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: actually do pretty well again here. He's going up against
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: Bryce Miller, who wound up getting the number one pitching
• 11:17
  Speaker 1: role in the in the series. Is just the way
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: that it worked out the because of Seattle having to
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: go five games in the last series, they had to
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: shift their rotation, which might come back to hurt them
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: because they don't have the better starter here. Although I
• 11:31
  Speaker 1: will say that Miller throughout his career he's been better
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: than he was this year. This year he was trying
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: to bounce back from Tommy John surgery. He did start
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: pitching better towards the end of the season, although his
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: numbers look really bad obviously, five point six to eighty RA,
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: one point four to one Whip. He was actually worse
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: at home five point eight ERA. Usually that's not the
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: case throughout his career, though, but he did start pitching
• 11:54
  Speaker 1: a bit better. He's been decent in the playoffs so far,
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: though not as good as Gossman really. He pitched four
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: to third against Detroit to try to kind of build
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: him up again to start pitching more in the playoffs.
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: Give Hip two earned runs in that one, and then
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: he went six innings in Game one at Toronto.
• 12:09
  Speaker 2: Give him one ear and run.
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: Although he did have a three to three strike out
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: walk ratio, which isn't exactly great, but he's been fine
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: so far in the playoffs. That was a good start
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: for him, and he was really efficient. He only threw
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: seventy six pitches, so he's not burned out. And now
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: he has a little bit of like playoff experience where
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: he's coming into this postseason. I don't think he really did,
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: but now that he has a couple of games under
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: his belt, maybe that's a little bit better for him.
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: Although as we saw last night, the experience wound up
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: being the determining factor last night. Sures Are being the
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: veteran over Castillo being a bit younger, sures are with
• 12:44
  Speaker 1: more more playoff experience, So I think Surezer has two
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: World Series wins as well, if I'm not mistaken. With
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: Washington and Texas within the last like five or six
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: years too, I think both of them happened. So yeah,
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: I mean, was the guy, you know, the veteran. Their
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: Gossman is obviously the more experienced of these two pitchers.
• 13:06
  Speaker 1: Although Miller has been pitching better recently. Like I said,
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: he's not worn out or anything because it have.
• 13:10
  Speaker 2: Been limiting well not really limiting.
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: His pitches necessarily, but he's just been pretty efficient. His
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: numbers against Toronto are fairly good and forty nine at
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: bats two to four batting average a lot is very low.
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: Six point fifty eight ops not bad either. The only
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: problem really is the walks seven strikeouts, six walks. It's
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: a low strikeout rate. The walk rate actually isn't really
• 13:31
  Speaker 1: that high. It's just the strikeout rate is pretty low
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: against him. This Toronto team, they draw a lot of
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: walks actually, just generally they're a patient hitting team. Toronto
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: is now without Santander, by the way, one of their
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: better hitters is now injured, and I think he probably
• 13:46
  Speaker 1: isn't coming back for the remainder of the postseason. So
• 13:51
  Speaker 1: that's a bit of a blow to Toronto's lineup, and
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: they're already without Bashett, although they do have a good
• 13:55
  Speaker 1: lineup any way even without those two guys. But just
• 13:59
  Speaker 1: a little bit of a concern there for them looking
• 14:01
  Speaker 1: at the market here, because I don't really have a
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: good read on this game, man. Toronto is a road favorite,
• 14:06
  Speaker 1: but they're pretty public as the public just kind of
• 14:09
  Speaker 1: sways with the wind. Seventy percent of tickets on them,
• 14:12
  Speaker 1: only sixty eight percent of the cash on Toronto down
• 14:16
  Speaker 1: for minus one fifteen to minus one ten here. So
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: the market read is basically saying to take the shot
• 14:23
  Speaker 1: with Seattle, fade the public, and take them as like
• 14:26
  Speaker 1: a very small home underdog here. I mean, I have
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: my concerns about it, obviously, but I mean that is
• 14:34
  Speaker 1: kind of the way the market is telling you to go.
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: So I mean that would kind of be the determining
• 14:39
  Speaker 1: factor for me there, but I kind of worry. I
• 14:42
  Speaker 1: worry about the experience factor. Man. If I was gonna
• 14:44
  Speaker 1: play this game at all, i'd be looking towards maybe
• 14:46
  Speaker 1: an under But I don't love the way the Bullpens
• 14:48
  Speaker 1: are set up here. I do think both pitchers could
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: do well because Toronto scored so many runs in the
• 14:53
  Speaker 1: first couple of games, which I think is kind of
• 14:55
  Speaker 1: an outlier in a stadium like this. The oddsmakers are
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: just saying, yeah, no, we're still gonna put this total
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: up at a low number, although it actually already dropped
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: from eight to seven seven juice to the over. Maybe
• 15:07
  Speaker 1: you can find a seven and a half out there
• 15:09
  Speaker 1: if you can. I mean, it's a key number. At
• 15:11
  Speaker 1: least you don't have to worry about the bullpen usage here.
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: But I do think that the that the under may
• 15:19
  Speaker 1: be worth taking a look at, maybe a first five
• 15:21
  Speaker 1: inning under. I know it seems dangerous after what we've
• 15:23
  Speaker 1: seen the last couple of days, and if one pitcher
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: kind of starts unraveling, you kind of lose that because
• 15:29
  Speaker 1: I think it's probably gonna be about a three and
• 15:31
  Speaker 1: a half number on the first five.
• 15:33
  Speaker 2: But I think that might actually be.
• 15:35
  Speaker 1: My preferred approach in this game, would be the under
• 15:37
  Speaker 1: in the first five innings.
• 15:39
  Speaker 2: But I don't want to touch the game.
• 15:40
  Speaker 1: Really two percentage difference, I think it says something when
• 15:46
  Speaker 1: it's it just kind of tells you that more of
• 15:49
  Speaker 1: the actual money is coming in against the against the
• 15:53
  Speaker 1: public ticket percentage. I mean, yeah, it's something that I
• 15:56
  Speaker 1: look for. I would like to see like a larger
• 15:59
  Speaker 1: discrepanty than that, But like I don't bet just based
• 16:01
  Speaker 1: on that, But I mean I use it to kind
• 16:04
  Speaker 1: of I use it.
• 16:05
  Speaker 2: As a guide.
• 16:06
  Speaker 1: But yeah, I would say, I mean, I think seeing
• 16:09
  Speaker 1: the cash percentage lower than the ticket percentage is definitely
• 16:12
  Speaker 1: an indicator rather than seeing it like higher than the
• 16:14
  Speaker 1: ticket percentage. Any anytime you start seeing it a little
• 16:18
  Speaker 1: bit lower than like that, I'm basically starting to think. Yeah,
• 16:20
  Speaker 1: I mean the I've been seeing the market move throughout
• 16:22
  Speaker 1: the morning too, So like prior to this, it was
• 16:25
  Speaker 1: like I saw sixty four percent for both of these
• 16:28
  Speaker 1: numbers a little while agoing now it looks like it's
• 16:30
  Speaker 1: kind of swinging swinging a little bit where it looks
• 16:33
  Speaker 1: like the ticket more tickets are coming in on Toronto,
• 16:36
  Speaker 1: but more of the actual money is coming in against
• 16:39
  Speaker 1: them on Seattle. So yeah, I think it's a decent indicator.
• 16:43
  Speaker 1: Even though it is only two percent. I think when
• 16:45
  Speaker 1: the game happens, maybe it'll be less than that. But
• 16:49
  Speaker 1: even if it's only two percent, I mean that is
• 16:52
  Speaker 1: better than seeing it like shift. Like that's different than
• 16:55
  Speaker 1: seeing it shifted in like the other, like seeing the
• 16:57
  Speaker 1: disparity in the other direction.
• 16:58
  Speaker 2: If that makes sense.
• 16:59
  Speaker 1: I don't know, but I kind of just use it
• 17:00
  Speaker 1: as a guide. I use it in football, like to
• 17:02
  Speaker 1: make my picks quite a bit. This is only one website, though,
• 17:05
  Speaker 1: pregame where there their numbers are coming from a combination
• 17:09
  Speaker 1: of I mean, we can actually see the books if
• 17:12
  Speaker 1: we really want, their numbers are coming from. Let me
• 17:16
  Speaker 1: see here.
• 17:17
  Speaker 2: Uh.
• 17:19
  Speaker 1: I can't believe they give you this these uh all
• 17:21
  Speaker 1: these numbers for free, by the way, but let me
• 17:24
  Speaker 1: see because you used to be able to see maybe
• 17:26
  Speaker 1: you can't see the specific book anymore, used to be
• 17:28
  Speaker 1: able to see it.
• 17:30
  Speaker 2: I don't know where it is.
• 17:31
  Speaker 1: Yeah, they used to show you every single book that
• 17:34
  Speaker 1: they tracked, and you could see like what the odds
• 17:36
  Speaker 1: were on the at the different books. But now I
• 17:38
  Speaker 1: don't see it. So maybe they got rid of that.
• 17:40
  Speaker 1: I don't know, because they used to give you like
• 17:42
  Speaker 1: a lot of information. Uh, Like there used to be
• 17:44
  Speaker 1: I think a drop down right here that was like, oh,
• 17:47
  Speaker 1: like I wanted to show the sides and then you
• 17:49
  Speaker 1: could see I think it was an extra drop down here.
• 17:51
  Speaker 1: I don't know, but like they track like I think
• 17:55
  Speaker 1: the Vegas casinos. Uh so it helps because they're doing that.
• 17:59
  Speaker 1: Where is like on Action Network, which I pay for,
• 18:02
  Speaker 1: they actually only track like the online books, so their
• 18:06
  Speaker 1: numbers you see like a totally different like skew on
• 18:09
  Speaker 1: Action Network. And I think this skew is actually better
• 18:12
  Speaker 1: to read because this includes like not only like the
• 18:17
  Speaker 1: main online books, but it also includes like the offshore
• 18:20
  Speaker 1: online books, which are more like profess that's those are
• 18:23
  Speaker 1: books where like professionals bet more so like a book
• 18:26
  Speaker 1: maker is a very like Pinnacle and stuff like that.
• 18:29
  Speaker 1: Those get included in these numbers, I think, And those
• 18:31
  Speaker 1: are books that are known for like catering to the professionals.
• 18:35
  Speaker 1: So like those numbers, like if you see like a
• 18:37
  Speaker 1: slightly different number on those books, that's kind of indicating that's.
• 18:40
  Speaker 2: Where like the professional lean is.
• 18:44
  Speaker 1: And then the Vegas casinos are always like almost more
• 18:47
  Speaker 1: of like a public skew there, but less of a
• 18:49
  Speaker 1: skew than than you would see with like DraftKings or something,
• 18:53
  Speaker 1: although I think this might track DraftKings too, but DraftKings,
• 18:56
  Speaker 1: you just it's just such a high number, like high
• 18:59
  Speaker 1: volume DraftKings. It just skews what the numbers are. Uh.
• 19:03
  Speaker 1: And I think when you're only tracking books like that,
• 19:05
  Speaker 1: excuse them too much as far as like what the
• 19:07
  Speaker 1: public is doing, and you can't really even see what
• 19:09
  Speaker 1: the professionals are actually doing, if that makes sense. Whereas
• 19:13
  Speaker 1: because here they track those professional books, they only tracked,
• 19:16
  Speaker 1: they're tracking the.
• 19:18
  Speaker 2: Mostly the Vegas casinos and stuff.
• 19:20
  Speaker 1: I think you can actually kind of see more of
• 19:21
  Speaker 1: the what the professionals are doing here because the Vegas
• 19:24
  Speaker 1: casinos get both and some of them cater more towards professionals,
• 19:27
  Speaker 1: some of them cater.
• 19:28
  Speaker 2: More towards public.
• 19:30
  Speaker 1: I don't know if any of that makes sense, but
• 19:32
  Speaker 1: now I'm rambling Ben, what's up? Man OTANIU? Over six
• 19:36
  Speaker 1: and a half strikeouts? I would I would say no
• 19:39
  Speaker 1: on that. I mean, we don't even know how long
• 19:41
  Speaker 1: he's gonna pitch into the game. He's been Yeah, he's swinging.
• 19:46
  Speaker 2: Yeah. Did he get a home run?
• 19:48
  Speaker 1: Finally?
• 19:48
  Speaker 2: I don't know.
• 19:51
  Speaker 1: Oh yeah, it was an eight leg parlay, that's right,
• 19:54
  Speaker 1: the Bruins with the Yeah, but the Bruins didn't win.
• 19:58
  Speaker 1: I mean I did mention I thought the Brews were
• 20:00
  Speaker 1: the right lean. I think I gave that out as
• 20:02
  Speaker 1: a lean right the Bruins on the pock line plus
• 20:05
  Speaker 1: the one and a half. It was a close game,
• 20:07
  Speaker 1: but yeah, they were losing by two. Later in the game,
• 20:09
  Speaker 1: I figure they might have even been losing by three actually,
• 20:12
  Speaker 1: and then they cut it back down. It was a
• 20:15
  Speaker 1: high scoring game, man, which usually high scoring means that
• 20:19
  Speaker 1: you're less like going to cover that underdog puck line.
• 20:23
  Speaker 1: But anyway, yeah, Brewers down oh three, man, they're done.
• 20:27
  Speaker 2: I mean, we know. The only team that ever came
• 20:29
  Speaker 2: back from.
• 20:29
  Speaker 1: The three to zero deficit was my Boston Red Sox
• 20:34
  Speaker 1: against the New York Yankees. And the Red Sox did
• 20:38
  Speaker 1: it as the as the road team in the series.
• 20:42
  Speaker 1: Milwaukee's gonna have to do it as the home team
• 20:44
  Speaker 1: in the series, which means they're on the road now
• 20:46
  Speaker 1: in the middle, so they're gonna have to win their
• 20:49
  Speaker 1: first two games on the road first, then win back
• 20:52
  Speaker 1: at home the Maybe maybe you could argue that that's
• 20:54
  Speaker 1: a better setup than what the Red Sox were in,
• 20:56
  Speaker 1: because the Red Sox had to win not only the
• 20:59
  Speaker 1: last two at home after they got down three, oh,
• 21:01
  Speaker 1: but then they had to win two games at New York,
• 21:04
  Speaker 1: which they did. Uh so maybe it's actually maybe that
• 21:07
  Speaker 1: was actually more difficult for the Red Sox to do that.
• 21:10
  Speaker 1: But the this game, it's gonna be hard to predict
• 21:13
  Speaker 1: because Milwaukee is again not telling us who their starter
• 21:16
  Speaker 1: is gonna be.
• 21:16
  Speaker 2: It's gonna be a bullpen game again.
• 21:18
  Speaker 1: Last night they had Ashby opened the game again and
• 21:22
  Speaker 1: their pitching wasn't bad.
• 21:23
  Speaker 2: It was a low scoring game.
• 21:24
  Speaker 1: It's just Glasnow. I mean, he's really good. There's only
• 21:27
  Speaker 1: so much you could do against that. I believe Milwaukee
• 21:31
  Speaker 1: is Missyerowski out of the bullpen there. I don't even
• 21:34
  Speaker 1: know if he's listed on here. He is.
• 21:35
  Speaker 2: Yeah, So, like I thought, Missierowski was kind.
• 21:38
  Speaker 1: Of the main piece.
• 21:40
  Speaker 2: He's a piece man.
• 21:41
  Speaker 1: He was, he was. He's a tall, handsome young man.
• 21:45
  Speaker 1: I guess Missierowski was the main guy yesterday for them.
• 21:49
  Speaker 1: After Ashby opened the game, I think Ashby went one,
• 21:52
  Speaker 1: maybe two winnings whatever, Then Mizierowski came in.
• 21:55
  Speaker 2: They wound up using four guys out of their bullpen.
• 21:58
  Speaker 1: But with all these bullpen games, their bullpen usage is
• 22:01
  Speaker 1: a lot more so you can see the Dodgers have
• 22:02
  Speaker 1: hard They used anybody the Dodgers have the most rested
• 22:05
  Speaker 1: bullpen out of any of these four teams right now.
• 22:07
  Speaker 1: So that's pretty good for the Dodgers coming into this.
• 22:10
  Speaker 1: I mean, they're starting pitching has just been insane, Like
• 22:13
  Speaker 1: they're starting pitching for the most part, has gone like
• 22:16
  Speaker 1: the full game up until last night of the glassnow
• 22:18
  Speaker 1: didn't go that deep into the game because they.
• 22:20
  Speaker 2: Used four relief pitchers yesterday. But Milwaukee's bullpen is.
• 22:25
  Speaker 1: Still a little bit more used than the Dodgers right now,
• 22:28
  Speaker 1: even though Milwaukee generally does have the better bullpen, but
• 22:31
  Speaker 1: they're going with another bullpen game here. The guy who
• 22:34
  Speaker 1: pitches the most for Milwaukee today's likely to be Quinn
• 22:37
  Speaker 1: Priest because that's the way the rotation is set up.
• 22:40
  Speaker 1: Milwaukee really really hurting right now. With Kintana hurt Wood
• 22:45
  Speaker 1: drop this hurt. Milwaukee might have been able to do
• 22:47
  Speaker 1: something in this series if they had those guys, they
• 22:50
  Speaker 1: would have actually at least had a decent rotation. But
• 22:53
  Speaker 1: the Dodgers, I mean, they're just going to old school, man.
• 22:56
  Speaker 2: They're going.
• 22:58
  Speaker 1: Like pure starting pick rotation, all these guys going deep
• 23:01
  Speaker 1: into games basically, which I like because it's old school baseball,
• 23:05
  Speaker 1: even though I don't really like the Dodgers. I can't
• 23:07
  Speaker 1: really argue with what they're doing here, and they're going
• 23:09
  Speaker 1: with Otani in this one. We don't know how deep
• 23:12
  Speaker 1: he's going to go into the game though, And we
• 23:14
  Speaker 1: could take a look at his splits. ESPN won't let
• 23:17
  Speaker 1: you see his batter versus pitcher stats. So he pitched
• 23:19
  Speaker 1: well at home this year one point seven to one
• 23:21
  Speaker 1: home IRA if you look at his pitching so far.
• 23:24
  Speaker 1: He only made one start in the playoffs so far,
• 23:27
  Speaker 1: so they're spreading his pitching out a little bit. He
• 23:29
  Speaker 1: threw eighty nine pitches and six innings back on October
• 23:33
  Speaker 1: fourth at Philadelphia, picked up the win in the game,
• 23:36
  Speaker 1: allow of three on runs, had nine strikeouts, one walk,
• 23:39
  Speaker 1: so he was solid in that outing. He's been solid
• 23:42
  Speaker 1: as a pitcher just generally, man, so I assume he's
• 23:45
  Speaker 1: going to continue to pitch pretty well here. I don't
• 23:47
  Speaker 1: know what his numbers really are against Milwaukee. We could
• 23:49
  Speaker 1: see he face them this year, but looks like he
• 23:51
  Speaker 1: did not because he only started pitching later in the year,
• 23:53
  Speaker 1: which it's gonna mean. These Milwaukee hitters are pretty unfamiliar
• 23:56
  Speaker 1: with Otani though, so I mean, you guys are talking
• 24:00
  Speaker 1: about the Otani you know, strikeout prop and that number
• 24:03
  Speaker 1: seems high to me, though, I think you're paying a
• 24:05
  Speaker 1: price because it's Otani the six and a half. I mean,
• 24:08
  Speaker 1: the worry is that you don't really know how deep
• 24:09
  Speaker 1: he's going to go into this game because it's you know,
• 24:12
  Speaker 1: I mean, this could be a game where maybe it's
• 24:14
  Speaker 1: a blowout and maybe they take him out or maybe
• 24:16
  Speaker 1: you know, there are multiple reasons weird things can happen
• 24:19
  Speaker 1: in the playoffs. There are multiple reasons why Otani might
• 24:22
  Speaker 1: not go that deep. Maybe they want to save him
• 24:24
  Speaker 1: for the World Series to some extent, they don't want
• 24:26
  Speaker 1: to overwork him, you know. I mean, he still hasn't
• 24:29
  Speaker 1: before this year, he hadn't pitched in the last couple
• 24:31
  Speaker 1: of years, so there are some reasons why he might
• 24:34
  Speaker 1: not go that deep into this game. Milwaukee does hit
• 24:37
  Speaker 1: fairly well on the road. Dodgers hit really well at
• 24:40
  Speaker 1: home as well. Total in this one is down from
• 24:43
  Speaker 1: eight to seven and a half. These games have actually
• 24:46
  Speaker 1: been lower scoring than the other series, which seems kind
• 24:49
  Speaker 1: of crazy given the Dodgers basically have the best offense
• 24:54
  Speaker 1: that's left out of these teams.
• 24:55
  Speaker 2: All the Toronto's is close.
• 24:57
  Speaker 1: Maybe he'll finally finally wind up seeing score in this game.
• 25:00
  Speaker 1: Although I wouldn't really want to fade Otani as far
• 25:03
  Speaker 1: as that's concerned. The Dodgers are also a very heavy favorite,
• 25:06
  Speaker 1: up from minus one seventy eight to minus one ninety two.
• 25:12
  Speaker 1: I mean, if you want to play the Dodgers, I
• 25:14
  Speaker 1: mean again, could be a run line type of situation.
• 25:17
  Speaker 1: On the yesterday you would have barely gotten away with
• 25:19
  Speaker 1: it as they only scored three runs. So the concern
• 25:21
  Speaker 1: is you might not get all nine innings out of
• 25:24
  Speaker 1: their offense, needing them to cover a minus one and
• 25:27
  Speaker 1: a half run line. A little bit of a concern there,
• 25:29
  Speaker 1: although you know, maybe you look that way, Maybe you
• 25:32
  Speaker 1: could look for the Dodgers to go over their team
• 25:34
  Speaker 1: total because I think maybe it'll be a bit of
• 25:36
  Speaker 1: a higher scoring game. I don't like the Milwaukee pitching
• 25:40
  Speaker 1: situation here at all, So maybe just go with the
• 25:42
  Speaker 1: Dodgers to score runs here might make sense. You get
• 25:45
  Speaker 1: probably a little bit of a lower price here because
• 25:47
  Speaker 1: the overall total is low. So maybe that's the way
• 25:49
  Speaker 1: to look in that one. A loser with the under
• 25:52
  Speaker 1: and the Oilers Islanders. That was close right, it was
• 25:55
  Speaker 1: a six. It landed six with it, dude, I think
• 25:59
  Speaker 1: it was an empty netter for the for the Islanders. Again,
• 26:02
  Speaker 1: the empty netters are under killers. Like I just there's
• 26:06
  Speaker 1: so many empty netters. I like, never want to play
• 26:08
  Speaker 1: an under in hockey.
• 26:11
  Speaker 2: But yeah, that game.
• 26:12
  Speaker 1: I mean, as you know that game, I would have
• 26:14
  Speaker 1: taken the side with the with the Islanders in that one.
• 26:19
  Speaker 1: All right, hockey today we have four hockey games here.
• 26:23
  Speaker 1: The late one is really the one, like really uninteresting one.
• 26:27
  Speaker 1: The first two games up at seven pm are actually
• 26:29
  Speaker 1: pretty good games.
• 26:30
  Speaker 2: Tampa Bay at Detroit.
• 26:32
  Speaker 1: This one, I mean you kind of look at it
• 26:33
  Speaker 1: and you see Tampa's one, two and one right now.
• 26:35
  Speaker 1: Detroit's three to one and oher. So it makes Detroit
• 26:38
  Speaker 1: look maybe a little bit better than they are, although
• 26:41
  Speaker 1: they've been tested a bit. I mean, they beat Toronto
• 26:43
  Speaker 1: twice and then they beat Florida. But you gotta think
• 26:46
  Speaker 1: there's gonna be a letdown in order here at some point,
• 26:49
  Speaker 1: And as Jeffrey does keep pointing out, Florida is dealing
• 26:52
  Speaker 1: with injuries right now, maybe this is a letdown spot.
• 26:56
  Speaker 2: I know it's a divisional game, it is Tampa Tampa's good,
• 26:59
  Speaker 2: so it's.
• 27:00
  Speaker 1: Not like you really expect Detroit to overlook Tampa Bay here,
• 27:03
  Speaker 1: But coming off a big game against the returning champs,
• 27:06
  Speaker 1: man the back to back returning champs could still be
• 27:09
  Speaker 1: a bit of a letdown, and I think what we're
• 27:11
  Speaker 1: looking at is kind of some misleading records here. And
• 27:15
  Speaker 1: then they do have Edmonton up next, although Edmonton's out
• 27:18
  Speaker 1: a conference game.
• 27:18
  Speaker 2: I know it is Edmonton. It's a big game, but
• 27:21
  Speaker 2: I don't.
• 27:21
  Speaker 1: Know that you could really say that that's a look
• 27:22
  Speaker 1: ahead as far as this is concerned, because Tampa is
• 27:26
  Speaker 1: a divisional game, so I think both teams are gonna
• 27:28
  Speaker 1: show up for it. By the way, as far as
• 27:31
  Speaker 1: a look ahead, I forgot to mention in that Steeler
• 27:33
  Speaker 1: game last night, even though last night was a big game,
• 27:35
  Speaker 1: So I don't think the look ahead was really much
• 27:37
  Speaker 1: of a concern. Maybe it was a bit bigger to
• 27:39
  Speaker 1: Cincinnati because if they lost that game, they would have
• 27:41
  Speaker 1: basically been dead. But Pittsburgh does have the Aaron Rodgers
• 27:45
  Speaker 1: ball up next. They have to play Green Bay next,
• 27:48
  Speaker 1: which is a high ticket price in that game, So
• 27:52
  Speaker 1: just pointing that out, I think it's Rogers return to
• 27:54
  Speaker 1: Green Bay in that game that is next, So yeah,
• 28:02
  Speaker 1: get the cement of the under by the end of
• 28:04
  Speaker 1: the second period. I mean, if you want to go
• 28:07
  Speaker 1: unders in hockey, you could, Yeah, you could do like
• 28:09
  Speaker 1: maybe you can even do like a an under that
• 28:12
  Speaker 1: doesn't include I don't even know if they allowed that.
• 28:14
  Speaker 1: Like I think you knew unders in like individual periods.
• 28:16
  Speaker 1: Maybe do under in the first period, under in the
• 28:19
  Speaker 1: second period and parlay those two together. I mean, I
• 28:22
  Speaker 1: don't know, man, because the third period just ruins those things.
• 28:26
  Speaker 1: I'm still not sure I agree with that Florida winning
• 28:29
  Speaker 1: in Buffalo.
• 28:30
  Speaker 2: I don't think it's a good spot.
• 28:32
  Speaker 1: It's I think it's a sandwich spot for Florida, which
• 28:34
  Speaker 1: I'll talk about on Saturday. But anyway, Yeah, this game
• 28:39
  Speaker 1: Detroit Tampa Bay. Tampa Bay is a road favorite here
• 28:42
  Speaker 1: in their road favorite for a reason. Down for min
• 28:45
  Speaker 1: just one fifty five to minus one fifty fifty two
• 28:47
  Speaker 1: percent to take it sixty one percent of the cash
• 28:49
  Speaker 1: on Tampa.
• 28:50
  Speaker 2: So the money is coming in on Tampa.
• 28:52
  Speaker 1: I mean, looking at these teams records, right, it almost
• 28:55
  Speaker 1: looks like you would want to take Detroit here because
• 28:58
  Speaker 1: they have the better record than the home underdog. I
• 29:00
  Speaker 1: wouldn't do it. I would go with it maybe being
• 29:03
  Speaker 1: a bit of a letdown. I would play Tampa if
• 29:05
  Speaker 1: I was gonna play this game. Tampa's coming off a
• 29:07
  Speaker 1: big game too. They lost an overtime to Washington, but
• 29:11
  Speaker 1: they've had an extra day off at least, so they've
• 29:13
  Speaker 1: had to travel from Washington to Detroit. But they've just
• 29:17
  Speaker 1: had a rough start to the season. They've had a
• 29:19
  Speaker 1: difficult so far Autawa, New Jersey. Their only win was
• 29:22
  Speaker 1: a tight win against Boston, who's playing a little bit
• 29:25
  Speaker 1: better than people thought they would, at least thankfully, I guess.
• 29:30
  Speaker 2: But yeah, Tampa hasn't ended.
• 29:31
  Speaker 1: Both of these teams have had fairly difficult schedules so far,
• 29:34
  Speaker 1: so it's a little bit of a wash, I guess.
• 29:36
  Speaker 2: Tampa.
• 29:36
  Speaker 1: By the way, did play Ottawa before Brady kuld Chuck
• 29:40
  Speaker 1: went down. I forgot to mention that yesterday. I leaned
• 29:42
  Speaker 1: to Autaway yesterday, which was correct. They won an overtime
• 29:45
  Speaker 1: there without their captain kuld Chuck for a long time now.
• 29:50
  Speaker 1: I think he's out for like six to eight weeks
• 29:52
  Speaker 1: with some injury now, So something to keep in mind
• 29:54
  Speaker 1: there as well. Although even with your captain going down.
• 29:58
  Speaker 1: I still think it's not a huge huge impact in hockey.
• 30:01
  Speaker 1: I think hockey becomes more of an impact when you
• 30:03
  Speaker 1: start getting like injuries piling up all on one side
• 30:06
  Speaker 1: of the ice or something like that, because hockey is,
• 30:09
  Speaker 1: you know, a game of lines, So even your best
• 30:12
  Speaker 1: player is really only going to be on the ice firm,
• 30:15
  Speaker 1: you know, like the majority of the ice time. It's
• 30:17
  Speaker 1: still not like they're not gonna be out there all
• 30:19
  Speaker 1: sixty minutes. Let's just put it that way. But yeah,
• 30:22
  Speaker 1: I would lean to Tampa in this game slightly. All
• 30:25
  Speaker 1: that being said, that is incorrect. Court side tickets to
• 30:32
  Speaker 1: Celtics I absolutely do not have that. Season tickets now,
• 30:35
  Speaker 1: very very expensive.
• 30:37
  Speaker 2: To do that.
• 30:38
  Speaker 1: I go to the Celtics playoff games and I get
• 30:41
  Speaker 1: good seats for those. So I've been not really court side,
• 30:45
  Speaker 1: but I've been like in the first row of like
• 30:47
  Speaker 1: the lows in a couple of different games. I was
• 30:50
  Speaker 1: behind the basket in the first row for the Knicks game.
• 30:54
  Speaker 1: The last Celtics game I went to, which we don't
• 30:56
  Speaker 1: want to remember, Celtics blowing a twenty points something lead
• 31:01
  Speaker 1: I think twice in a row. And then I was
• 31:04
  Speaker 1: at Game one of that one, and then Tatum wound
• 31:05
  Speaker 1: up getting hurt and basically season over and now this season.
• 31:09
  Speaker 2: Is over too, Absolutely ridiculous.
• 31:13
  Speaker 1: I was in row one for the I was across
• 31:16
  Speaker 1: the court, like looking directly across at the Jalen Brown
• 31:21
  Speaker 1: three pointer against Indiana the previous year that you know,
• 31:25
  Speaker 1: ridiculous game where the Celtics looked like they were gonna lose,
• 31:28
  Speaker 1: came back won the game. Brown hit that crucial three
• 31:31
  Speaker 1: pointer from the corner. I was at that game and
• 31:34
  Speaker 1: I was on the opposite side of the court from
• 31:36
  Speaker 1: where it happened, like watching it happen.
• 31:39
  Speaker 2: Minnesota at Washington.
• 31:41
  Speaker 1: Interesting game, although I think Minnesota's overrated, as I keep saying,
• 31:45
  Speaker 1: Washington was a little bit overrated last year too.
• 31:47
  Speaker 2: But they're on a nice run right now.
• 31:48
  Speaker 1: After they lost to Boston in their season opener, they
• 31:52
  Speaker 1: beat the Islanders, the Rangers Tampa in overtime last time up,
• 31:55
  Speaker 1: and now they've had a few days off staying at home.
• 31:58
  Speaker 1: Maybe a little bit of a bad ba for Washington.
• 32:00
  Speaker 1: It could be a little bit of a let down
• 32:02
  Speaker 1: off of that win over Tampa. Minnesota's and out of
• 32:05
  Speaker 1: conference team, and you don't really want to have that
• 32:06
  Speaker 1: much time off while just sitting at home kind of
• 32:10
  Speaker 1: basking in that win, so I could like kind of
• 32:13
  Speaker 1: stall out your momentum a little bit. I think the
• 32:15
  Speaker 1: spot's a little bit better from Minnesota. Minnesota's coming in
• 32:18
  Speaker 1: off kind of an ugly loss, although it was to Dallas,
• 32:21
  Speaker 1: who might be the best team in the NHL. Uh
• 32:24
  Speaker 1: They're having to travel up to Washington from Dallas, though.
• 32:27
  Speaker 1: Uh so we're over to Washington from Dallas with the
• 32:30
  Speaker 1: same amount of time off, but with that amount of
• 32:32
  Speaker 1: time off even though it is travel, that might help
• 32:36
  Speaker 1: them kind of just forget about that loss and just
• 32:38
  Speaker 1: kind of like gather themselves up after that and maybe
• 32:42
  Speaker 1: play a better game here. So I would have a
• 32:43
  Speaker 1: slight lean to Minnesota in this one. Washington does look
• 32:46
  Speaker 1: pretty public. Seventy seven percent of tickets and cash on them,
• 32:50
  Speaker 1: line on them is down for minus one twenty five.
• 32:52
  Speaker 2: We might just want twenty one. So maybe both teams
• 32:55
  Speaker 2: are a little.
• 32:55
  Speaker 1: Bit overrated because Washington's basically only getting whole ice for
• 32:59
  Speaker 1: the most part on this price, which I considered to
• 33:02
  Speaker 1: be about twenty twenty cents. The minus one twenty I
• 33:05
  Speaker 1: think is basically the whole ice advantage essentially for hockey.
• 33:10
  Speaker 1: So interesting there. Vancouver Chicago is gonna be my play,
• 33:14
  Speaker 1: and then San Jose and Utah is not necessarily an
• 33:18
  Speaker 1: interesting game. I mean San Jose is so bad that
• 33:20
  Speaker 1: Utah is a massive favorite here. Utah good, I mean,
• 33:25
  Speaker 1: decent records so far, but their two wins have been
• 33:27
  Speaker 1: against Nashville and Calgary, and those teams are not very good.
• 33:30
  Speaker 1: They actually lost to Chicago on the road, and they
• 33:33
  Speaker 1: did lose at Colorado.
• 33:35
  Speaker 2: There's no shame in that.
• 33:35
  Speaker 1: But Utah has had a pretty easy schedule so far,
• 33:39
  Speaker 1: although the easy schedule continues because San Jose is probably.
• 33:43
  Speaker 2: The worst team in the league.
• 33:45
  Speaker 1: Not really much to see here though, I'm just talking
• 33:47
  Speaker 1: about it because there aren't that many games here. Yeah,
• 33:51
  Speaker 1: I mean they're coming off that win over Calgary staying
• 33:53
  Speaker 1: at home. That was in a return home spot, but
• 33:55
  Speaker 1: it was Utah's home opener, and I did say I
• 33:57
  Speaker 1: lined I leaned to Utah in that game. San Jose,
• 34:01
  Speaker 1: they only have one regulation loss, but they don't have
• 34:03
  Speaker 1: a win yet. This is gonna be their first road
• 34:07
  Speaker 1: game too, this late into the season. Kind of a
• 34:09
  Speaker 1: strange situation, having to go into elevation and into kind
• 34:13
  Speaker 1: of unfamiliar territory, into Utah because Utah. You know, they
• 34:17
  Speaker 1: were new last year basically, even though they are the
• 34:20
  Speaker 1: remnants of Arizona. After Arizona kind of had to disband
• 34:24
  Speaker 1: their team, they basically just reformed, so they're technically an
• 34:28
  Speaker 1: expansion team. And now they have named themselves the Mammoth,
• 34:31
  Speaker 1: which people are making fun of. I don't think it's
• 34:33
  Speaker 1: that bad of a name, to be honest.
• 34:35
  Speaker 2: It sounds.
• 34:38
  Speaker 1: It sounds like pretty bad ass, to be honest. It
• 34:40
  Speaker 1: kind of sounds like massed On the band, which I
• 34:43
  Speaker 1: do like them, the Mammoth, which Mammoth is also a
• 34:46
  Speaker 1: band with Wolfgang van Halen in that band. They're actually
• 34:49
  Speaker 1: pretty solid. But yeah, San Jose, I mean, they're coming
• 34:53
  Speaker 1: off a blowout loss to Carolina. They're going out on
• 34:56
  Speaker 1: the road, which maybe will actually help them a little bit,
• 34:58
  Speaker 1: just get away from home, and you've been losing every game.
• 35:00
  Speaker 2: But I don't have much of a read on this
• 35:03
  Speaker 2: game at all. The Mammoth.
• 35:05
  Speaker 1: The Mammoth or up from minus two thirty six to
• 35:07
  Speaker 1: minus two fifty sixty seven percent of ticket seventy three
• 35:10
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash on San Jose, though, I mean.
• 35:14
  Speaker 2: This game is the hardest one to read.
• 35:16
  Speaker 1: Like your guess is as good as mine on this one, man,
• 35:20
  Speaker 1: I'm not gonna have anything to do with it. And then, uh,
• 35:22
  Speaker 1: I'll give up the best bet now, just because we're
• 35:24
  Speaker 1: still talking hockey. I don't know if it's gonna be
• 35:27
  Speaker 1: what you think it is or not. Because the market
• 35:30
  Speaker 1: read looks like it's maybe kind of against it. We're
• 35:32
  Speaker 1: gonna go with the Chicago Blackhawks plus one twenty five.
• 35:35
  Speaker 1: I should have given them out as a play in
• 35:37
  Speaker 1: their previous game, and I know they're coming off a
• 35:39
  Speaker 1: really good looking win against Saint Louis, which, by the way,
• 35:43
  Speaker 1: I forgot to mention the Utah game against Nashville the
• 35:46
  Speaker 1: Predators whatever. That was a couple of games ago. I
• 35:50
  Speaker 1: saw somebody say this is the NHL's first prehistoric matchup
• 35:53
  Speaker 1: because the Predator's logo is like a saber tooth tiger
• 35:56
  Speaker 1: and Utah's the wooly mammoth.
• 35:58
  Speaker 2: I was like, Yeah, that's pretty hilarious.
• 36:00
  Speaker 1: Anyway, Chicago, they are coming off a win at Saint Louis,
• 36:04
  Speaker 1: good win, big win.
• 36:05
  Speaker 2: But I don't know that they're gonna be in a
• 36:07
  Speaker 2: letdown spot here.
• 36:08
  Speaker 1: Man. They're coming back home. It was only a short
• 36:10
  Speaker 1: trip to Saint Louis, so it wasn't really a road
• 36:12
  Speaker 1: trip or anything like that along road trip. Since they
• 36:16
  Speaker 1: got their first win over Utah, they've been playing with
• 36:18
  Speaker 1: some momentum. I know they're not a good team, but
• 36:22
  Speaker 1: this is more about fading Vancouver. But I still think
• 36:25
  Speaker 1: Chicago they're at least in a momentum spot here though
• 36:28
  Speaker 1: I know usually you do not want to play on
• 36:30
  Speaker 1: a team that scored eight goals in their previous game
• 36:32
  Speaker 1: because they're gonna look too good.
• 36:34
  Speaker 2: But in this case, they're playing a team that just
• 36:36
  Speaker 2: has more name recognition.
• 36:38
  Speaker 1: Everybody considers that team to be better than they are,
• 36:40
  Speaker 1: so I'm gonna do it anyway.
• 36:42
  Speaker 2: Soder Bloom was in net.
• 36:44
  Speaker 1: Last time out for Chicago, so you're gonna get their
• 36:47
  Speaker 1: better goalie this time, which is Night, although I actually
• 36:49
  Speaker 1: think both of their goalies are actually fairly good. But
• 36:51
  Speaker 1: I think Night will be back in net for them,
• 36:54
  Speaker 1: which I think is a fine thing.
• 36:55
  Speaker 2: So I think you're gonna get their first string goalie
• 36:58
  Speaker 2: in this game.
• 37:01
  Speaker 1: As far as Vancouver is concerned, I do not like
• 37:03
  Speaker 1: the spot for Vancouver, and I do think they're kind
• 37:06
  Speaker 1: of a mediocre team right now, more so than being
• 37:09
  Speaker 1: like a really good team like they were in the past.
• 37:13
  Speaker 1: They did lose to Saint Louis, so that does worry
• 37:15
  Speaker 1: me about this handicap a little bit where people are
• 37:17
  Speaker 1: gonna do that kind of the recreational guys are gonna say, oh, well,
• 37:20
  Speaker 1: Chicago beat Saint Louis and Saint Louis beat Vancouver, so
• 37:24
  Speaker 1: that me Chicago should be able to beat Vancouver, right
• 37:27
  Speaker 1: So I hate that style of handicapping, but I mean,
• 37:30
  Speaker 1: usually I'll go against it when there's that like style
• 37:32
  Speaker 1: of handicapping coming into play, But in this case, I'm
• 37:35
  Speaker 1: going to do this anyway because I do think Vancouver.
• 37:39
  Speaker 2: I don't think the spot is good.
• 37:40
  Speaker 1: They're going to back to back, They're on the back
• 37:42
  Speaker 1: leg of a back to back, so they're pretty much
• 37:45
  Speaker 1: definitely gonna use lancoln in the net. So they're gonna
• 37:47
  Speaker 1: be on their second string goalie here because dem Go
• 37:50
  Speaker 1: played yesterday and they beat Dallas last night, so they're
• 37:54
  Speaker 1: traveling up from Dallas to Chicago after beating Dallas, who
• 37:57
  Speaker 1: I think might be the best team in hockey. Huge
• 38:00
  Speaker 1: win for Vancouver in that game. If you look at
• 38:03
  Speaker 1: what happened in that game. Dallas did outshoot them, the
• 38:06
  Speaker 1: hits were somewhat similar Dallas outface off them. So it's
• 38:10
  Speaker 1: not like Vancouver statistically really necessarily won the game, and
• 38:14
  Speaker 1: the game wasn't like that out of reach such that
• 38:17
  Speaker 1: like either team was going to be in like total
• 38:19
  Speaker 1: desperation mode. Both teams had a two goal lead at
• 38:22
  Speaker 1: various points in the game, or at one point in
• 38:24
  Speaker 1: the game. No team led by more than that, so
• 38:27
  Speaker 1: I don't think it was a situation where either team
• 38:29
  Speaker 1: was throwing up like desperation shots. But I think it's
• 38:31
  Speaker 1: now a letdown spot with travel on a back to back,
• 38:35
  Speaker 1: and they have Washington up next, which is also a
• 38:38
  Speaker 1: team that might draw their focus, or is the Chicago
• 38:40
  Speaker 1: team even though they've won two games. I still don't
• 38:43
  Speaker 1: think the Chicago team is a team that is drawing
• 38:45
  Speaker 1: a ton of focus from teams right now, even though yes,
• 38:48
  Speaker 1: they have one of the most talented young players in Badard,
• 38:51
  Speaker 1: but that was the case last year or two. Yeah,
• 38:54
  Speaker 1: I think it's a spot to fade Vancouver here.
• 38:57
  Speaker 2: Man.
• 38:57
  Speaker 1: They only have fifty three percent ticket, seventy percent the cash,
• 39:00
  Speaker 1: and they're up for minus one thirty eight to minus
• 39:02
  Speaker 1: one forty one. But I faded the market read yesterday.
• 39:05
  Speaker 1: I'm doing it again here. I'm going with my situational handicapping.
• 39:09
  Speaker 2: Rather than the market read. Here, We're gonna take the.
• 39:11
  Speaker 1: Blackhawks as the home underdog in this game, and that
• 39:15
  Speaker 1: is it. I think the goaltender matchup, like the way
• 39:18
  Speaker 1: the scheduling sets up, I think it's a letdown spot.
• 39:20
  Speaker 1: It's a back to back, so yeah, I mean it
• 39:22
  Speaker 1: caught my eye.
• 39:23
  Speaker 2: I like it.
• 39:24
  Speaker 1: We'll take the Blackhawks in that one high scoring team
• 39:29
  Speaker 1: in any sport, uh, you want the the underneath the under, Yeah,
• 39:34
  Speaker 1: I mean that is a way to handicap certain things, certainly.
• 39:38
  Speaker 1: I mean again in hockey, I don't even know if
• 39:40
  Speaker 1: I ever want to touch an under in hockey. Just
• 39:42
  Speaker 1: I mean, that's I know, that's not a way to
• 39:44
  Speaker 1: really do it. Like if you're if you want to
• 39:45
  Speaker 1: play totals, you can't just avoid unders. But hockey seems
• 39:49
  Speaker 1: to be the worst sport for unders, just because empty
• 39:51
  Speaker 1: net goals are so prevalent.
• 39:53
  Speaker 2: It's just ridiculous.
• 39:56
  Speaker 1: But like in football, I would definitely uh yeah, I
• 39:59
  Speaker 1: mean I'll actually maybe talk about one of those. There
• 40:01
  Speaker 1: is a situation where that is the case, Jeffrey. On Saturday,
• 40:05
  Speaker 1: there's a college football game. I'll just I can mention
• 40:08
  Speaker 1: it now if you want. Boise and UNLV. Those are
• 40:11
  Speaker 1: two teams that just put up a shit ton of
• 40:13
  Speaker 1: points in the last game, so I think an under
• 40:17
  Speaker 1: may be worth a look in their game this week,
• 40:20
  Speaker 1: which I can talk about more.
• 40:21
  Speaker 2: When I do, I'll talk about it.
• 40:23
  Speaker 1: That'll be tonight because I'm talking about the Saturday college
• 40:25
  Speaker 1: football tonight. Let's talk about college football for tonight. Here.
• 40:29
  Speaker 1: We actually have four games and they're all big conference
• 40:33
  Speaker 1: games I think except for well the Mountain West, I guess.
• 40:35
  Speaker 2: Doesn't really count. But yeah, let's dive into this.
• 40:39
  Speaker 1: Man. ESPN has a pretty nice game up to start,
• 40:43
  Speaker 1: even though I know it's not a really competitive line here,
• 40:45
  Speaker 1: But I think this game might be competitive. And this
• 40:47
  Speaker 1: would be my strongest opinion, but it's not going to
• 40:51
  Speaker 1: make a play for me. Very close to being so,
• 40:54
  Speaker 1: but I would lean to Louisville in this game between
• 40:56
  Speaker 1: Louisville and Miami. Miami up to number two in the country.
• 41:00
  Speaker 1: Still not totally sold that Miami is that good. I mean,
• 41:05
  Speaker 1: do I think they're a top ten team? Yes, I
• 41:07
  Speaker 1: would say so, I mean, I didn't think they were
• 41:10
  Speaker 1: to start the season.
• 41:11
  Speaker 2: I'll say that they.
• 41:12
  Speaker 1: Probably are now, but I don't think they're actually the
• 41:15
  Speaker 1: number two team in the country. I think you got
• 41:18
  Speaker 1: like Ohio State, Alabama. What are some of the other
• 41:22
  Speaker 1: teams there, Oregon, I think it's probably still up there.
• 41:25
  Speaker 1: I don't know why I'm drawing a blank here, but
• 41:27
  Speaker 1: there are a few teams that are like, absolutely like
• 41:29
  Speaker 1: up there. I think Miami, Notre Dame. I actually think
• 41:32
  Speaker 1: it is probably still one of those teams too. Miami,
• 41:35
  Speaker 1: I think is a little bit worse than some of
• 41:37
  Speaker 1: those teams. But yeah, they played really well so far.
• 41:40
  Speaker 1: They've had a couple of big wins against Notre Dame.
• 41:43
  Speaker 1: I don't put much stock into the USF win from Miami.
• 41:46
  Speaker 1: That was a game I was on on my show.
• 41:48
  Speaker 1: I laid the points with Miami. USF was in a
• 41:51
  Speaker 1: bad spot, and I think USF had no business being
• 41:53
  Speaker 1: a ranked team. They're not really a top twenty five team.
• 41:57
  Speaker 1: And then Miami did beat Florida, who I think is underrated.
• 42:00
  Speaker 2: At the very least. Florida.
• 42:01
  Speaker 1: I mean we saw them beat Texas, so Florida does
• 42:04
  Speaker 1: have the ability to play well against any good team really,
• 42:07
  Speaker 1: and they played well against LSU as well. Miami beat
• 42:10
  Speaker 1: Florida State last time out, which is another pretty solid win.
• 42:13
  Speaker 1: Although maybe Florida State is not as good as we
• 42:15
  Speaker 1: thought they were. Man because Florida State, what have they
• 42:19
  Speaker 1: done since they beat Alabama?
• 42:21
  Speaker 2: They haven't done anything.
• 42:22
  Speaker 1: Their other wins are against East Texas A and m
• 42:24
  Speaker 1: and Kent State, and I know they absolutely annihilated them,
• 42:27
  Speaker 1: but since then they've lost to Virginia. We know Virginia
• 42:30
  Speaker 1: is definitely good this year. They lost to this Miami team,
• 42:33
  Speaker 1: like I said, and then they lost in the hangover.
• 42:36
  Speaker 2: Spot against Pittsburgh last week.
• 42:38
  Speaker 1: So but maybe Florida State's maybe not quite as good
• 42:41
  Speaker 1: as maybe they looked with that win over Alabama.
• 42:44
  Speaker 2: But still a big win for Miami. And that's a big.
• 42:47
  Speaker 1: Interstate or intra state I guess rivalry game. It's an
• 42:51
  Speaker 1: in state rivalry between Miami and Florida State. Huge win
• 42:54
  Speaker 1: for Miami there. They actually had to go on the
• 42:56
  Speaker 1: road to do it to Tallahassee. I thought Florida State
• 42:59
  Speaker 1: was gonna cover that game, and they came close to
• 43:01
  Speaker 1: doing it. But now what I think that does is
• 43:04
  Speaker 1: it sets up a letdown spot here from Miami and
• 43:06
  Speaker 1: they went into a bye off of that, and you know,
• 43:08
  Speaker 1: I talk about that when a team goes into a bye,
• 43:11
  Speaker 1: their bye is this late into the season and they
• 43:13
  Speaker 1: still don't have a loss, which is the case with Miami.
• 43:15
  Speaker 1: They're five to zero. I think that's bad. I think
• 43:18
  Speaker 1: it's a momentum killer. And you went into it with
• 43:21
  Speaker 1: one of your best wins of the season, like you're
• 43:23
  Speaker 1: maybe they consider that to be their best all. I
• 43:25
  Speaker 1: don't know, because Notre Dame is still a rival too,
• 43:27
  Speaker 1: but it's one of their best two wins of the
• 43:29
  Speaker 1: season against Florida State, and that's how they go into
• 43:31
  Speaker 1: the bye. Again, what do you do during your bye?
• 43:34
  Speaker 1: You have nothing to fix. So that's a bit of
• 43:37
  Speaker 1: an issue there having a bye like that. So I
• 43:39
  Speaker 1: think that's a negative from Miami. I don't think that's good.
• 43:42
  Speaker 1: Louisville was kind of highly touted to start the season,
• 43:47
  Speaker 1: like people talking about them competing for the ACC and
• 43:50
  Speaker 1: they still can. I mean, they've done pretty well so far.
• 43:52
  Speaker 1: They just haven't really faced a difficult schedule so far,
• 43:55
  Speaker 1: so I think they are a little bit under the
• 43:56
  Speaker 1: radar now. The concern is their strength of schedule is
• 43:59
  Speaker 1: very low. They beat James Madison, who is, you know,
• 44:03
  Speaker 1: a lower conference team, though they are a good lower
• 44:05
  Speaker 1: conference team. They're definitely good. But their best win is
• 44:09
  Speaker 1: I guess against pitt on the road. That was their
• 44:11
  Speaker 1: only like big conference wins so far, and then they
• 44:14
  Speaker 1: did lose where I was on Louisville in this game
• 44:16
  Speaker 1: two weeks ago against Virginia and Louisville lost that game.
• 44:19
  Speaker 1: They probably shouldn't have lost the game. I mean, they
• 44:21
  Speaker 1: were a favorite in the game, they.
• 44:23
  Speaker 2: Lost in overtime.
• 44:25
  Speaker 1: Statistically in this game, I think Louisville outplayed them, which
• 44:28
  Speaker 1: I was complaining about. Louisville did kind of dominate Virginia.
• 44:31
  Speaker 1: They should have won this game and covered. Man, I'm
• 44:34
  Speaker 1: pissed that that was a loss for us on the
• 44:35
  Speaker 1: show because that was one of those, you know situations
• 44:38
  Speaker 1: where Virginia not used to being ranked and you had
• 44:42
  Speaker 1: the unranked Louisville team being a pretty substantial favorite. Louisville
• 44:45
  Speaker 1: outgained though by one hundred and fifty yards almost in
• 44:48
  Speaker 1: the game.
• 44:48
  Speaker 2: They were minus two.
• 44:49
  Speaker 1: In turnals, they had eleven more first downs, they had
• 44:52
  Speaker 1: the time of possession edge. No way Louisville should have
• 44:54
  Speaker 1: lost that game, although they did, but I think that
• 44:58
  Speaker 1: that was a bad performance and they lost as a favorite,
• 45:01
  Speaker 1: So I actually think that them also going into a
• 45:04
  Speaker 1: buye after that, I think that actually helps them because
• 45:07
  Speaker 1: that loss was already a momentum stopper. So now I
• 45:10
  Speaker 1: think the buy can kind of help you recover from that,
• 45:12
  Speaker 1: help you fix things, because that was actually kind of
• 45:14
  Speaker 1: a bad game.
• 45:15
  Speaker 2: They should have won as a favorite.
• 45:16
  Speaker 1: They're gonna be able to use that buy to prepare
• 45:18
  Speaker 1: something for Miami here, so I think it's a better
• 45:20
  Speaker 1: spot for Louisville here. I'm almost talking myself into a
• 45:24
  Speaker 1: play here. I don't know do we really want to
• 45:26
  Speaker 1: do it. My concerns would be that Louisville strength, the
• 45:30
  Speaker 1: schedule isn't good, although we said that about Missouri last
• 45:33
  Speaker 1: week and they still covered against Alabama and debatably should
• 45:36
  Speaker 1: have won that game, although some of you guys might
• 45:38
  Speaker 1: have had a push on Missouri in that game. And
• 45:42
  Speaker 1: then Louisville, what else was I gonna say about this?
• 45:46
  Speaker 1: And then the fact that they that that's their first loss.
• 45:48
  Speaker 1: Sometimes when a team takes their first loss, it can
• 45:51
  Speaker 1: hang them over into the next game. But I do
• 45:53
  Speaker 1: think that that break that they had with the buye
• 45:55
  Speaker 1: will be helpful in this case. Louis is still a
• 45:59
  Speaker 1: pretty good offense, man. I know the rushing attack has
• 46:02
  Speaker 1: kind of suffered a little bit since they started facing
• 46:04
  Speaker 1: somewhat better teams, but they did put up a lot
• 46:06
  Speaker 1: of yards on the ground against James Madison. Still a
• 46:09
  Speaker 1: pretty balanced attack, and they have Miller Moss, who transferred
• 46:12
  Speaker 1: over from USC as their quarterback. He's still doing pretty well.
• 46:16
  Speaker 1: So I mean, this Louisville team is decent and they're
• 46:19
  Speaker 1: under the radar. Man, it's tempting. It's definitely tempting to
• 46:24
  Speaker 1: do this.
• 46:24
  Speaker 2: Teams pull their goalie.
• 46:25
  Speaker 1: Yeah, they pull their goalies with like four minutes left
• 46:28
  Speaker 1: in the game. Man, h do we want to do it?
• 46:32
  Speaker 2: Should we do this?
• 46:33
  Speaker 1: I kind of like it, man, I think it is
• 46:35
  Speaker 1: kind of a letdown spot here. Miami doesn't have anything
• 46:38
  Speaker 1: big up next though. They have to play Stanford, which
• 46:40
  Speaker 1: is like a whatever type of game. But I mean,
• 46:44
  Speaker 1: I know it's a difficult, difficult environment to go from
• 46:47
  Speaker 1: Louisville into Miami here, but it's a big stadium and
• 46:51
  Speaker 1: I saw the ticket prices on this and it looked
• 46:53
  Speaker 1: like the ticket prices were really cheap.
• 46:55
  Speaker 2: In this game.
• 46:56
  Speaker 1: I don't know where can we see the ticket prices there?
• 46:58
  Speaker 1: They are seventeen. You can go to this game, You're
• 47:01
  Speaker 1: probably gonna be in the nosebleeds. But to me, that
• 47:03
  Speaker 1: kind of indicates that it's kind of like a even
• 47:05
  Speaker 1: though it's a big Friday night game, it's kind of like,
• 47:08
  Speaker 1: I don't know, it looks like it's not sold out
• 47:11
  Speaker 1: even though it is a big stadium or Miami plays,
• 47:14
  Speaker 1: but this is like right on the border line for me.
• 47:20
  Speaker 1: You have Miami with seventy eight percent of tickets only
• 47:22
  Speaker 1: sixty percent of the cash, so they're public with less
• 47:25
  Speaker 1: than the money on them. The totals dropping from fifty
• 47:27
  Speaker 1: three and a half all the way down to the
• 47:28
  Speaker 1: key fifty one. So if you want the under, I
• 47:31
  Speaker 1: would say you gotta get on that before it goes
• 47:33
  Speaker 1: below fifty one. Eighty percent of tickets on the over,
• 47:36
  Speaker 1: sixty eight percent of the cash on the under, so
• 47:39
  Speaker 1: the money is coming in on the under, and the
• 47:41
  Speaker 1: under should help the underdog because it means the points
• 47:44
  Speaker 1: are worth more. And I know Miami's kind of considered
• 47:47
  Speaker 1: to be this you know, high flying offense with Carson
• 47:50
  Speaker 1: Beck there and whatever, but they're not really. I mean,
• 47:53
  Speaker 1: whenever they've stepped up and they played a bigger conference team,
• 47:55
  Speaker 1: their offense didn't put up a ton of points. They
• 47:57
  Speaker 1: put up twenty seven against Notre Dame, and Notre Dame's
• 48:00
  Speaker 1: defense has been pretty ugly this year, so that's not
• 48:03
  Speaker 1: a lot of points. Twenty six against Florida. Florida's defense
• 48:06
  Speaker 1: is pretty good, and then Florida State. I don't know
• 48:09
  Speaker 1: if you even know how good Florida State's defense is.
• 48:12
  Speaker 1: Miami put up twenty eight against them. So Miami really
• 48:14
  Speaker 1: hasn't been lighting the world on fire with their offense,
• 48:20
  Speaker 1: which I think Louisville. I mean, they've been able to
• 48:23
  Speaker 1: score a little bit more than the Miami has actually,
• 48:26
  Speaker 1: So does that mean Louisville actually has the better offense?
• 48:29
  Speaker 2: Maybe? You know what?
• 48:31
  Speaker 1: Yeah, fuck it, let's do it. This is gonna be,
• 48:34
  Speaker 1: you know, one of my plays that I like the least.
• 48:38
  Speaker 1: I don't think you're gonna get fourteen on this, though,
• 48:41
  Speaker 1: we'll do it. We'll do Louisville plus thirteen here. Probably
• 48:45
  Speaker 1: won't get fourteen on this. Let's fucking do it. Close
• 48:49
  Speaker 1: to being a play for me. Anyway, so we'll do
• 48:50
  Speaker 1: it on that one. I will add it as a play.
• 48:53
  Speaker 1: Let's hope that we get this done here. That means
• 48:54
  Speaker 1: I'm going to add it to my college pick them
• 48:57
  Speaker 1: entries here, So hopefully that like the money one, So
• 49:01
  Speaker 1: hopefully it'll work out because I'm probably gonna have about
• 49:03
  Speaker 1: three or four plays on tomorrow's card. I think it's
• 49:08
  Speaker 1: it's just there, like just as strong enough. All right,
• 49:11
  Speaker 1: let's get this done. Hopefully this won't be too long
• 49:13
  Speaker 1: of a video here. We have a big ten matchup
• 49:16
  Speaker 1: at eight pm on Fox Nebraska.
• 49:19
  Speaker 2: Who's now in the top twenty five? Are Nebraska?
• 49:21
  Speaker 1: Man Nate not in the chat here this morning. He
• 49:24
  Speaker 1: usually comes into the the college football night game, so
• 49:27
  Speaker 1: he's gonna miss the Nebraska analysis. They're at Minnesota here.
• 49:31
  Speaker 1: Minnesota not a very good team. Nebraska is definitely worthy
• 49:36
  Speaker 1: of being ranked. They're a good team, pretty good on
• 49:38
  Speaker 1: both sides of the football. I know I make fun
• 49:40
  Speaker 1: of the Patrick Mahomes want to be Ryola.
• 49:43
  Speaker 2: He's been okay, but.
• 49:46
  Speaker 1: Nebraska's had a decent Like they've had a balanced offensive
• 49:49
  Speaker 1: attack is what I mean to say. Like they've been
• 49:51
  Speaker 1: putting up decent rushing stats, and their defense is good too,
• 49:54
  Speaker 1: so they're a.
• 49:54
  Speaker 2: Pretty balanced team.
• 49:56
  Speaker 1: They're good in kind of every phase of the game,
• 49:59
  Speaker 1: and they're coming off a that was not really a
• 50:02
  Speaker 1: great win at Maryland. I mean, this Maryland team is
• 50:04
  Speaker 1: good defensively though, so the fact that this was a
• 50:07
  Speaker 1: high scoring game was kind of weird between these two
• 50:09
  Speaker 1: good defenses. Total was in the forties and that game
• 50:12
  Speaker 1: and they scored over sixty combined.
• 50:15
  Speaker 2: Kind of weird.
• 50:15
  Speaker 1: But Nebraska is a road favored in that game and
• 50:17
  Speaker 1: they almost lost the game, but it was kind of
• 50:20
  Speaker 1: a weird travel spot for them. It was actually their
• 50:22
  Speaker 1: first road game in the season, so you can kind
• 50:25
  Speaker 1: of explain why they didn't do that well in that game.
• 50:27
  Speaker 1: Now it's a second straight road game, yeah, but it's
• 50:30
  Speaker 1: a more familiar environment to them, going to a team
• 50:34
  Speaker 1: that's been in the Big Ten for a long time
• 50:36
  Speaker 1: in Minnesota, so that aspect of it isn't terrible for them,
• 50:40
  Speaker 1: although it is still a second straight road game on
• 50:42
  Speaker 1: a bit of.
• 50:42
  Speaker 2: A short week.
• 50:43
  Speaker 1: Although both teams are having to play in a short
• 50:45
  Speaker 1: week here, Minnesota sitting at four and two probably not
• 50:48
  Speaker 1: as good as that record looks, as some of their
• 50:50
  Speaker 1: wins are you know.
• 50:52
  Speaker 2: I mean they beat Buffalo. I mean Buffalo is not
• 50:54
  Speaker 2: bad for MAC.
• 50:55
  Speaker 1: Team, I guess, Northwestern State and FCS team not a
• 50:58
  Speaker 1: good win there, lost on the road to Cal who
• 51:02
  Speaker 1: isn't great, although you can kind of write that off
• 51:05
  Speaker 1: because having to go to the Pacific Coast first road
• 51:08
  Speaker 1: game this season, not a really good spot from Minnesota there,
• 51:11
  Speaker 1: they'd beat Rutgers, who just really doesn't have a good
• 51:14
  Speaker 1: defense this year. Decent win, I guess, and then they
• 51:17
  Speaker 1: lost to Ohio State. I mean, obviously you can't blame
• 51:19
  Speaker 1: them for that, losing on the road to Ohio State,
• 51:21
  Speaker 1: and then they did bounce back with a win over Purdue.
• 51:24
  Speaker 2: Minnesota was a favorite, they were.
• 51:25
  Speaker 1: Actually they were one of my Survivor picks last week
• 51:28
  Speaker 1: we survived. I had Minnesota in Houston in Survival last week.
• 51:32
  Speaker 1: I thought it was a good spot to use them.
• 51:34
  Speaker 1: I got to figure out who I'm using this week.
• 51:37
  Speaker 1: I think I'm gonna use Notre Dame as one of
• 51:38
  Speaker 1: them this week, though even though it's in a like
• 51:42
  Speaker 1: a rivalry game, I'm still gonna do it because Notre
• 51:45
  Speaker 1: Dame isn't available.
• 51:46
  Speaker 2: I think in any of the remaining weeks in that game.
• 51:49
  Speaker 1: The way that that game, like the games that they
• 51:53
  Speaker 1: let you pick in that survivor pool on Splash Sports,
• 51:56
  Speaker 1: is very strange how they decide which games are availed
• 52:00
  Speaker 1: each week. So I think Notre Dame's not available for
• 52:02
  Speaker 1: the rest of the season, so it makes sense to
• 52:05
  Speaker 1: use them here. But anyway, Minnesota, we got it with
• 52:09
  Speaker 1: the survivor pick there. They barely won by seven. Purdue
• 52:13
  Speaker 1: was actually down close to the goal line at the
• 52:16
  Speaker 1: end of that game, knocking on the door.
• 52:17
  Speaker 2: I think they got stopped because they had.
• 52:18
  Speaker 1: Like a fourth and goal from the nine, which isn't
• 52:21
  Speaker 1: a great situation. I mean, once once you get into
• 52:24
  Speaker 1: a fourth down situation with that many yards to go,
• 52:27
  Speaker 1: not easy to get into the end zone.
• 52:30
  Speaker 2: Minnesota was able to.
• 52:31
  Speaker 1: Stop them win the game. They're staying at home. It
• 52:33
  Speaker 1: is a big game. Minnesota doesn't get to play too
• 52:36
  Speaker 1: many of these primetime games to play host to them.
• 52:39
  Speaker 1: They did play one of them, I think against California.
• 52:42
  Speaker 1: I think maybe that was a Saturday game against California,
• 52:44
  Speaker 1: and I don't even remember, but it should be a
• 52:46
  Speaker 1: big game for them at home against Nebraska, and you know,
• 52:50
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna slightly lean that way to taking the points
• 52:53
  Speaker 1: of Minnesota. I mean, I could see this being a
• 52:55
  Speaker 1: lower scoring game. You got a pretty ugly offense with Minnesota,
• 52:59
  Speaker 1: which is kind of the concern here, and Nebraska does
• 53:01
  Speaker 1: play good defense. Seventy four percent of tickets and cash
• 53:05
  Speaker 1: both on the over totals already dropped from forty nine
• 53:08
  Speaker 1: down to forty six and a half. If you do
• 53:09
  Speaker 1: want the under I would say you want to get
• 53:11
  Speaker 1: it at under forty seven, which is the key number there.
• 53:14
  Speaker 1: But because the total is so low, I think Minnesota
• 53:17
  Speaker 1: plus the points is actually kind of worth a look here.
• 53:19
  Speaker 1: Nebraska up from five and a half to seven, laying
• 53:22
  Speaker 1: a lot of points on the road here, a second
• 53:23
  Speaker 1: straight road game, Minnesota staying at home may be able
• 53:27
  Speaker 1: to slow Nebraska down a little bit. Fifty per take
• 53:30
  Speaker 1: a sixty three percent of the cash coming in on
• 53:33
  Speaker 1: Minnesota could be one of those games. It's just more
• 53:37
  Speaker 1: defense oriented in general, which does kind of lend itself
• 53:40
  Speaker 1: more towards the underdog covering. The money looks like it
• 53:43
  Speaker 1: is coming in on that underdog side, So SOB, what's
• 53:46
  Speaker 1: up man?
• 53:47
  Speaker 2: You like Louisville as well? Miami's coach is terrible, That's true.
• 53:51
  Speaker 2: Mario Christobal.
• 53:53
  Speaker 1: This might be the type of game where he fucks
• 53:55
  Speaker 1: something up, because it seems to me in those games
• 53:57
  Speaker 1: that seem like they're games that Miami should win easily
• 53:59
  Speaker 1: and they just fuck it up. You're right, Crystal Ball,
• 54:03
  Speaker 1: he's bad as a favorite. That's also true. You're fading
• 54:09
  Speaker 1: the Red Wings off three big wins.
• 54:10
  Speaker 2: You like Tampa.
• 54:11
  Speaker 1: I agree with that one as well. Not a play
• 54:13
  Speaker 1: for me, but I agree.
• 54:15
  Speaker 2: Let's get it.
• 54:15
  Speaker 1: Done, man, Hell yeah, let's do it. You think Miami
• 54:19
  Speaker 1: has caught some teams in favorable spots. Yeah, I mean
• 54:21
  Speaker 1: they caught South Florida in a favorable spot. I played
• 54:25
  Speaker 1: Miami twice, actually I played them, or I gave them
• 54:28
  Speaker 1: all his plays on the show, I should say, at
• 54:29
  Speaker 1: least against Notre Dame and against USF. But they did
• 54:34
  Speaker 1: win that Florida game done. That was a bad spot
• 54:36
  Speaker 1: I thought for Miami in that one. Florida did not
• 54:40
  Speaker 1: get the job done for US and then Miami. I
• 54:43
  Speaker 1: didn't think that they were gonna cover against Florida State
• 54:46
  Speaker 1: orthough they did. Really, I think the teams that they
• 54:49
  Speaker 1: caught in disadvantageous spots were really just Notre Dame in
• 54:54
  Speaker 1: South Florida, though, I think those were the two games
• 54:57
  Speaker 1: where Miami had the situational advantage, which is why I
• 55:00
  Speaker 1: was on Miami.
• 55:01
  Speaker 2: In those two games.
• 55:03
  Speaker 1: But yeah, I mean, you're right about Christo Ball not
• 55:07
  Speaker 1: a good coach. Maybe Louisville actually has the coaching edge.
• 55:10
  Speaker 1: For that reason, San Jose stayed at Utah State at
• 55:13
  Speaker 1: nine pm on CBS Sports may actually be kind of
• 55:17
  Speaker 1: a fun game.
• 55:18
  Speaker 2: I mean, it's a high total.
• 55:19
  Speaker 1: Both of these teams have pretty decent offenses really and
• 55:23
  Speaker 1: kind of lackluster defenses. Total has dropped from sixty four
• 55:27
  Speaker 1: and a half to sixty one and a half. Seems
• 55:28
  Speaker 1: weird to me because usually when you have a high
• 55:30
  Speaker 1: total like this, usually the oddsmakers are telling you something
• 55:34
  Speaker 1: and that you kind of want to look towards an over.
• 55:36
  Speaker 1: But the money's coming in on the under. Eighty one
• 55:38
  Speaker 1: percent of tickets on the over, fifty two percent of
• 55:40
  Speaker 1: the cash on the under. Utah State is a four
• 55:42
  Speaker 1: point home favorite eighty seven percent of tickets, only eighty two.
• 55:45
  Speaker 2: Percent in cash on them.
• 55:47
  Speaker 1: I do think San Jose State might be a little
• 55:49
  Speaker 1: bit undervalued at this point, because I think at the
• 55:51
  Speaker 1: beginning of the season pretty much everybody had San Jose
• 55:54
  Speaker 1: State as the better of these two teams. We didn't
• 55:57
  Speaker 1: know what Utah State was going to be because Bronco
• 55:59
  Speaker 1: Mendenhall was coming in implementing a new system. Utah States
• 56:03
  Speaker 1: looked fairly decent so far. They actually played pretty competitively
• 56:08
  Speaker 1: against Texas A and M and Vandy, putting up a
• 56:10
  Speaker 1: lot of points against those two teams, which is saying
• 56:13
  Speaker 1: something because those two teams have decent defenses. So this
• 56:17
  Speaker 1: offense has been pretty good for Utah State. Their defense
• 56:20
  Speaker 1: maybe not so much. They're coming off two straight road
• 56:23
  Speaker 1: losses here. They're having to travel back from Hawaii with
• 56:26
  Speaker 1: no time off, so that does make.
• 56:28
  Speaker 2: It pretty difficult for Utah States.
• 56:29
  Speaker 1: If you want to fade Utah State, that would be
• 56:32
  Speaker 1: part of the reason to do so. Is a travel
• 56:34
  Speaker 1: back on a short week from Hawaii seems kind of ridiculous.
• 56:39
  Speaker 1: Although these teams kind of do that sometimes. I mean,
• 56:42
  Speaker 1: they're somewhat used to it because that happens in the
• 56:45
  Speaker 1: Mountain West sometimes because Hawaii's in that conference. But yeah,
• 56:49
  Speaker 1: I mean it's still a fairly weird spot and I
• 56:52
  Speaker 1: think maybe Utah State has kind of reached like the
• 56:53
  Speaker 1: peak of their value here. They do have like a
• 56:56
  Speaker 1: balanced offensive attack. Though they can throw the ball, they
• 56:59
  Speaker 1: can run the ball. San Jose State more of a
• 57:02
  Speaker 1: one dimensional offense, I think, where they mostly just throw
• 57:05
  Speaker 1: the ball. They are coming off an ugly loss at Wyoming,
• 57:10
  Speaker 1: where San Jose State was definitely a favorite in that one.
• 57:12
  Speaker 1: But going to Wyoming, I know, we don't want to
• 57:15
  Speaker 1: talk about the UNLV game there that they definitely should
• 57:17
  Speaker 1: have lost, but Wyoming difficult place to play. I mean
• 57:20
  Speaker 1: it's high elevation. They got snow out there now, so
• 57:24
  Speaker 1: you know, it's not an easy environment to have to
• 57:26
  Speaker 1: go into. San Jose State lost that game ugly loss
• 57:29
  Speaker 1: because they were a favorite. Wyoming is not a good team.
• 57:34
  Speaker 1: San Jose State, Yeah, I mean it was just kind
• 57:37
  Speaker 1: of a weird game. I mean, they won the turnover battle,
• 57:39
  Speaker 1: lost to the yards battle slightly but and had the
• 57:42
  Speaker 1: possession edge, but still didn't win the game. They had
• 57:44
  Speaker 1: a lot of penalties, which I think was kind of
• 57:46
  Speaker 1: the reason. Part of the reason they lost this game
• 57:48
  Speaker 1: was just discipline issues for San Jose State. But I
• 57:51
  Speaker 1: think it's more of a bounce back spot for them here.
• 57:54
  Speaker 1: They're also on the short week, but they're only traveling
• 57:56
  Speaker 1: from Wyoming to Utah State, so not as much of
• 57:59
  Speaker 1: a travel spot for them there. It's a fairly short
• 58:02
  Speaker 1: trip really, so I think the spot sets up better
• 58:05
  Speaker 1: for San Jose State. I think there might be some
• 58:08
  Speaker 1: value there because to start the season, San Jose State
• 58:11
  Speaker 1: was supposed to be the better of these two teams,
• 58:13
  Speaker 1: and I'm not sure that that's not still the case.
• 58:16
  Speaker 1: I mean, the line is telling you that maybe Utah
• 58:18
  Speaker 1: State is a slightly better team. Now as far as
• 58:20
  Speaker 1: the oddsmakers are telling you, don't know if that's totally accurate.
• 58:23
  Speaker 1: So yeah, if I was gonna play it, I would
• 58:24
  Speaker 1: take the points with San Jose State in that one.
• 58:28
  Speaker 1: You like the Mariners' money line even though you have
• 58:29
  Speaker 1: the Jays to win. As you know, I have the
• 58:31
  Speaker 1: Mariners to win the World Series in my bracket, but
• 58:34
  Speaker 1: it was not a bet. But you could have gotten
• 58:36
  Speaker 1: them at an eight to one to start the playoffs.
• 58:38
  Speaker 1: Though for the Mariners. Public is definitely on Toronto today.
• 58:42
  Speaker 1: That is true. The market Reid is saying to take
• 58:45
  Speaker 1: Seattle here, but yeah, Seattle really going to lose three
• 58:49
  Speaker 1: home games. I mean, of course, it's a lot easier
• 58:51
  Speaker 1: for that to happen when they've already lost two and
• 58:54
  Speaker 1: then we have this final late game, which is pretty ugly. Man,
• 58:58
  Speaker 1: this might be uglier than that Santa was a state
• 59:00
  Speaker 1: Utah stak in because at least I think if you
• 59:02
  Speaker 1: like offense, you're gonna see some in that game, see
• 59:05
  Speaker 1: some fireworks. This North Carolina and Cal game, Oh my god,
• 59:10
  Speaker 1: ten thirty pm. North Carolina and East Coast team having
• 59:14
  Speaker 1: to play a late night game on the Pacific Coast.
• 59:16
  Speaker 1: You know what I say about that bad spot. It
• 59:19
  Speaker 1: fucks with your biological clock. You have to play this
• 59:21
  Speaker 1: really late game that's gonna end maybe you know one am,
• 59:26
  Speaker 1: one thirty am your time eastern. That's pretty bad for
• 59:29
  Speaker 1: your biological clock. This North Carolina team, they've been really
• 59:33
  Speaker 1: bad defensively over the last few years. With their offense
• 59:35
  Speaker 1: has been really good, and now it's like they're not
• 59:38
  Speaker 1: even good on either side of the ball right now.
• 59:40
  Speaker 1: Bill Belichick coming in hasn't been good. Their offense has
• 59:43
  Speaker 1: been awful. Their offense has been so bad that I
• 59:46
  Speaker 1: think they switched away from Geo Lopez, who transferred over
• 59:49
  Speaker 1: from South Alabama. He wasn't getting it done, and they
• 59:52
  Speaker 1: used Johnson last week I'm assuming it was an actual
• 59:55
  Speaker 1: quarterback change and not an injury, but neither of them
• 59:58
  Speaker 1: really getting the job donerth Carolina is coming out of
• 1:00:01
  Speaker 1: a bye, so that will help a little bit with
• 1:00:02
  Speaker 1: the fact they're having to travel to the Pacific Coast here,
• 1:00:05
  Speaker 1: but it's their first time traveling out of the Eastern
• 1:00:08
  Speaker 1: time zone this season, which is obviously not easy and
• 1:00:12
  Speaker 1: not a team that's used to playing at Cal because
• 1:00:15
  Speaker 1: they're pretty new to the ACC. I don't think they've
• 1:00:17
  Speaker 1: had to make that trip yet. North Carolina has not.
• 1:00:20
  Speaker 1: North Carolina did go into the buy on a bad note.
• 1:00:22
  Speaker 1: They got blown out in two straight games against Central
• 1:00:25
  Speaker 1: Florida and Clemson. Clemson still probably better than what people
• 1:00:29
  Speaker 1: think they are right now, though, I mean, maybe a
• 1:00:31
  Speaker 1: little bit over a hype to start the season, but
• 1:00:33
  Speaker 1: not as bad as what they look to start the season.
• 1:00:35
  Speaker 1: I don't think North Carolina got annihilated by them. But
• 1:00:38
  Speaker 1: when you have a bye like that, it does help
• 1:00:40
  Speaker 1: you fix shit. Like you want to have a bye
• 1:00:42
  Speaker 1: when you're on a bad note, when you're playing poorly,
• 1:00:45
  Speaker 1: because you can fix things in the bye.
• 1:00:47
  Speaker 2: But still, this travel spot looks pretty difficult.
• 1:00:49
  Speaker 1: They do have a ranked Virginia team up next to
• 1:00:52
  Speaker 1: love North Carolina because they've been playing so poorly. I
• 1:00:54
  Speaker 1: don't think they're really going to overlook anybody. CAL actually
• 1:00:57
  Speaker 1: off to a good start at four and two, although
• 1:01:00
  Speaker 1: they faced an easy schedule. Their best win is I
• 1:01:05
  Speaker 1: guess this road win against Boston College. BC has been
• 1:01:08
  Speaker 1: playing some pretty poor football, man. I thought that was
• 1:01:11
  Speaker 1: a good spot for BC. I thought BC should have
• 1:01:13
  Speaker 1: won that game. BC was the home favorite. Very strange
• 1:01:16
  Speaker 1: travel spot for CAL in that one. CAL still was
• 1:01:19
  Speaker 1: able to get the win there. Their other decent win,
• 1:01:23
  Speaker 1: I guess was this home win against Minnesota, So when
• 1:01:25
  Speaker 1: they had that unfamiliar team coming in, they did beat Minnesota,
• 1:01:28
  Speaker 1: but they lost to Duke before going into the by
• 1:01:32
  Speaker 1: Duke actually maybe not a bad team. I thought that
• 1:01:35
  Speaker 1: was kind of a bad spot for Duke. I hav
• 1:01:37
  Speaker 1: gonna go out to the Pacific Coast, but the like
• 1:01:40
  Speaker 1: discrepancy there was like Duke had the worst record versus CAL,
• 1:01:45
  Speaker 1: but Duke was like a road favorite despite being on
• 1:01:47
  Speaker 1: the Pacific Coast, so in the market that it was
• 1:01:49
  Speaker 1: a hard game to read because that kind of told
• 1:01:51
  Speaker 1: you that Duke was the right side. Looking at how
• 1:01:53
  Speaker 1: they were favored as the team with the worst record,
• 1:01:56
  Speaker 1: but it was like a bad situational spot for Duke.
• 1:01:59
  Speaker 1: So it was a hard read that one. Cal took
• 1:02:02
  Speaker 1: a loss in that one. So they actually went into
• 1:02:04
  Speaker 1: a buy and a bad note as well, losing to Duke.
• 1:02:07
  Speaker 1: And they're not traveling, they're staying at home, and they're
• 1:02:09
  Speaker 1: probably gonna be up for this, you know, because their
• 1:02:11
  Speaker 1: last game they played here was ugly losing to Duke.
• 1:02:14
  Speaker 1: Now they get to try to redeem themselves against Duke's
• 1:02:17
  Speaker 1: rival in North Carolina on ESPN. They get to host
• 1:02:21
  Speaker 1: this ESPN isolated primetime game. I do think it sets
• 1:02:24
  Speaker 1: up better for Cal in this one. Cal is laying
• 1:02:26
  Speaker 1: a ton of point. This is crazy to see Cal
• 1:02:29
  Speaker 1: being this much of a favorite. They're actually down from
• 1:02:31
  Speaker 1: ten and a half to eight. Here, fifty percent tickets,
• 1:02:34
  Speaker 1: only fifty six percent of the cash on North Carolina.
• 1:02:36
  Speaker 2: North Carolina.
• 1:02:38
  Speaker 1: Somehow, even though they've been absolute ass, North Carolina is
• 1:02:42
  Speaker 1: a public underdog in this game. Don't ask me how
• 1:02:46
  Speaker 1: that's the case. Maybe it's the Belichick effect.
• 1:02:48
  Speaker 2: I mean, I have no idea.
• 1:02:49
  Speaker 1: Belichick I don't even think is a good coach man.
• 1:02:51
  Speaker 1: Name one good thing he's done when he has not
• 1:02:54
  Speaker 1: had a man named Tom Brady on his team, you
• 1:02:56
  Speaker 1: can't because it doesn't exist.
• 1:03:00
  Speaker 2: The total in this game is.
• 1:03:01
  Speaker 1: Low, though, now from forty eight to forty seven, so
• 1:03:03
  Speaker 1: we're expecting more struggles from North Carolina's offense. I guess
• 1:03:07
  Speaker 1: that makes laying the points a little bit less tempting
• 1:03:10
  Speaker 1: because the total is low. But that's still the way
• 1:03:12
  Speaker 1: that I would lean though. If I was gonna play
• 1:03:14
  Speaker 1: this game, I would lay it with cal Anti public
• 1:03:17
  Speaker 1: home favorite, like that very bad travel spot, at least
• 1:03:20
  Speaker 1: for North Carolina. Both teams are in the by advantage spot,
• 1:03:24
  Speaker 1: so I think that kind of cancels itself out. So
• 1:03:26
  Speaker 1: that's the way that I would lean in that one.
• 1:03:30
  Speaker 1: You think the line's too big on Cal lean to
• 1:03:33
  Speaker 1: you lean to them anyway? You n c it's not
• 1:03:37
  Speaker 1: double digits though, it's eight, which is if you like
• 1:03:40
  Speaker 1: cal that's a better number. Obviously, you think Cal is
• 1:03:43
  Speaker 1: gonna win in a blowout. I mean I could see that.
• 1:03:46
  Speaker 1: I mean I don't disagree with the cal side, obviously,
• 1:03:48
  Speaker 1: I do agree with that. The Red Wings coach who
• 1:03:51
  Speaker 1: is their coach? Now, I don't even know that's good. Yeah,
• 1:03:55
  Speaker 1: I don't listen. Maybe I should. I should listen to
• 1:03:57
  Speaker 1: more of the the press con or just see what
• 1:04:00
  Speaker 1: the coach and the players are saying, because like basically,
• 1:04:03
  Speaker 1: you you want them to always be like slightly negative,
• 1:04:07
  Speaker 1: if that makes sense, Like you always want to hear
• 1:04:09
  Speaker 1: them saying something like we have some shit to work
• 1:04:12
  Speaker 1: on here, even if things are going well, you still
• 1:04:14
  Speaker 1: kind of want to hear that. You don't want to
• 1:04:15
  Speaker 1: hear them talking about how things are like so good
• 1:04:18
  Speaker 1: or they're too good or something like that, right, because
• 1:04:20
  Speaker 1: that is almost like a deem motivational thing, right, Like
• 1:04:24
  Speaker 1: as a coach, I think you always want to be like,
• 1:04:27
  Speaker 1: you know, striving to be a little bit better than
• 1:04:29
  Speaker 1: you currently are. So I think that's the better way
• 1:04:31
  Speaker 1: to do it. I think that's more of a motivator.
• 1:04:33
  Speaker 1: But not like beating your team down to the point
• 1:04:35
  Speaker 1: where they hate you, you know what I mean. It's
• 1:04:37
  Speaker 1: like you're towing a line there.
• 1:04:40
  Speaker 2: I don't know.
• 1:04:40
  Speaker 1: When you hear like certain clips, like you'll kind of know.
• 1:04:44
  Speaker 1: And then like if a team is playing like you know,
• 1:04:47
  Speaker 1: a bad team, like what you want to hear the
• 1:04:49
  Speaker 1: coach saying is like, you know, stuff like we can't
• 1:04:51
  Speaker 1: overlook this.
• 1:04:52
  Speaker 2: Team, you know what I mean, Like this team is.
• 1:04:54
  Speaker 1: Actually not that bad whatever, you know, something like that,
• 1:04:58
  Speaker 1: Like we need to, you know, try to get the
• 1:05:00
  Speaker 1: team focus son. You know, as we do with our
• 1:05:03
  Speaker 1: handicapping on the show. Teams are not always gonna give
• 1:05:05
  Speaker 1: one hundred percent effort in every game, so that's how
• 1:05:08
  Speaker 1: we handicap. Thanks guys for hanging out again. My play
• 1:05:11
  Speaker 1: is today are the Blackhawks and hockey as the home
• 1:05:14
  Speaker 1: underdog on the money line, and we're gonna go with
• 1:05:16
  Speaker 1: Louisville in college football plus thirteen. That was I was
• 1:05:20
  Speaker 1: back and forth of this to whether I wanted to
• 1:05:22
  Speaker 1: make that a play. When I first saw that spot,
• 1:05:24
  Speaker 1: I was like, I definitely gonna have Louisville on my card.
• 1:05:26
  Speaker 2: Then I was kind of.
• 1:05:27
  Speaker 1: Rethinking it, saying, eh, maybe it's not quite strong enough.
• 1:05:31
  Speaker 1: And now I'm like, eh, yeah, all right, fuck it
• 1:05:34
  Speaker 1: not my favorite of the week, but it's it's on
• 1:05:36
  Speaker 1: the card. Yanni from Wager Talk Vegas runner vr Ace. Yeah.
• 1:05:42
  Speaker 1: Some guys that I talked to don't like Yanni at all,
• 1:05:45
  Speaker 1: and I do. I think I like his his stuff, man,
• 1:05:49
  Speaker 1: the way that he reads the markets. I tend to
• 1:05:51
  Speaker 1: agree with him more often than I don't. Yeah, he
• 1:05:53
  Speaker 1: gives his sharp Action reports. If you join wager Talk
• 1:05:58
  Speaker 1: on you know, if you pay them a little bit
• 1:06:01
  Speaker 1: of money or whatever. On YouTube, you get his steam
• 1:06:03
  Speaker 1: report videos, which they used to be not behind the paywall,
• 1:06:07
  Speaker 1: and it's some really good stuff there. I think maybe
• 1:06:09
  Speaker 1: they released like maybe one of them not behind the
• 1:06:12
  Speaker 1: paywall this year just to kind of lure you in.
• 1:06:15
  Speaker 1: He said there was sharp Action on North Carolina. I
• 1:06:17
  Speaker 1: would disagree with that move, you know what, it could
• 1:06:20
  Speaker 1: have been a fake move, right, Like, so Yanni like
• 1:06:25
  Speaker 1: he'll report like because he's like the reason why he's
• 1:06:29
  Speaker 1: Vegas Runner. You know, I was gonna get out of here,
• 1:06:31
  Speaker 1: but I'll talk about it. The reason why he's Vegas
• 1:06:33
  Speaker 1: Runner is because back in the day he's originally from Philadelphia,
• 1:06:36
  Speaker 1: but back in the day he was a runner in
• 1:06:39
  Speaker 1: Vegas when you had to bet physically at casinos.
• 1:06:41
  Speaker 2: He was working for these like betting.
• 1:06:43
  Speaker 1: Syndicates, these groups, which he still does now, but back
• 1:06:47
  Speaker 1: then you actually literally had to run up and down
• 1:06:49
  Speaker 1: the strip to make the bets physically. Yet like you're
• 1:06:52
  Speaker 1: trying to find the best number, like whatever casino has
• 1:06:55
  Speaker 1: the best number. So he was doing that and like
• 1:07:00
  Speaker 1: that's why, that's how he got the name Vegas Runner.
• 1:07:03
  Speaker 1: And he still does that now, but it's all like
• 1:07:04
  Speaker 1: online now, so you don't have to physically run anymore.
• 1:07:07
  Speaker 1: Even though he's in better shape now, he used to
• 1:07:09
  Speaker 1: be like a chubby dude and he lost a lot
• 1:07:12
  Speaker 1: of weight, so good for him, and he's kept it off.
• 1:07:16
  Speaker 1: Maybe a little bit of a little bit of cosmetic
• 1:07:19
  Speaker 1: surgery going on with him and some fake tan action,
• 1:07:22
  Speaker 1: but yeah, he definitely looks looks better and he's kept
• 1:07:24
  Speaker 1: the weigh it off. So but anyway, Yeah, so he
• 1:07:28
  Speaker 1: used to run up and down the strip to find
• 1:07:30
  Speaker 1: the best number right at whatever book had the best
• 1:07:32
  Speaker 1: number to get that bet in.
• 1:07:34
  Speaker 2: I think the way that he works is like he
• 1:07:36
  Speaker 2: gets a percentage of what those.
• 1:07:37
  Speaker 1: Groups win, and he's really in tune with like what
• 1:07:41
  Speaker 1: is going on in the market because he has access
• 1:07:43
  Speaker 1: to what all those groups are betting, and they're all
• 1:07:45
  Speaker 1: groups of professionals, so he can tell you, yeah, like
• 1:07:48
  Speaker 1: this professional group is betting this side.
• 1:07:51
  Speaker 2: He has groups that he.
• 1:07:54
  Speaker 1: Like, he knows how these groups operate too, so maybe
• 1:07:56
  Speaker 1: this is a group that will like actually be more
• 1:07:58
  Speaker 1: prone to like setting up at like it's a fake
• 1:08:01
  Speaker 1: move when they do it at the beginning, maybe because
• 1:08:03
  Speaker 1: they're more used to doing that. Some groups won't even
• 1:08:05
  Speaker 1: do that, and some groups just will play like a
• 1:08:08
  Speaker 1: given side and you know that they actually like that side.
• 1:08:12
  Speaker 1: I'm pretty sure that that North Carolina with my guess
• 1:08:15
  Speaker 1: based on what we just saw with that market there.
• 1:08:18
  Speaker 1: I'm not a market reader like him, I'm not on
• 1:08:20
  Speaker 1: the inside like he is, but my guess would be
• 1:08:23
  Speaker 1: that because of the line was right on the key
• 1:08:25
  Speaker 1: number of ten, my guess would be that there are
• 1:08:28
  Speaker 1: some groups, maybe some actually like North Carolina. But I
• 1:08:31
  Speaker 1: think what happened really was that more of the professionals
• 1:08:35
  Speaker 1: that actually bet it, we're trying to hammer that line
• 1:08:38
  Speaker 1: down below ten to get it lower so they could
• 1:08:41
  Speaker 1: actually come back on the real side that they actually want,
• 1:08:43
  Speaker 1: which is cal and lay the points at a better
• 1:08:45
  Speaker 1: price at below ten. That would be my guess, because
• 1:08:48
  Speaker 1: I talk about that in the show. Professional betters will
• 1:08:50
  Speaker 1: do that because they know that they have respect with
• 1:08:53
  Speaker 1: the odds makers and that whenever they bet something, the
• 1:08:55
  Speaker 1: odds makers will move the line. And when they bet
• 1:08:58
  Speaker 1: earlier like that, the limits are lower because the odds
• 1:09:01
  Speaker 1: makers will not allow you to bet like huge amounts
• 1:09:04
  Speaker 1: yet when they first put their line out, because they
• 1:09:06
  Speaker 1: want to try to figure out where the line really
• 1:09:08
  Speaker 1: should be to split the action. So so like you
• 1:09:13
  Speaker 1: might see like a fake move for some smaller amount
• 1:09:15
  Speaker 1: right away, because the professionals know that that bet will
• 1:09:19
  Speaker 1: still cause the line to move, and then after the
• 1:09:21
  Speaker 1: line moves and the limits open up, then they'll actually
• 1:09:23
  Speaker 1: come back with their real bet on the side that
• 1:09:26
  Speaker 1: they actually want. And the odds makers can't really know
• 1:09:30
  Speaker 1: which they actually think because if they like a side,
• 1:09:34
  Speaker 1: they still might just throw like a small limit bed
• 1:09:36
  Speaker 1: out there and then come back with more on that
• 1:09:38
  Speaker 1: same side if they continue to like it, so the
• 1:09:40
  Speaker 1: oddsmakers can't really tell which one is going to.
• 1:09:42
  Speaker 2: Be the case.
• 1:09:43
  Speaker 1: So I think that that was a fake move in
• 1:09:45
  Speaker 1: that one would be my opinion.
• 1:09:46
  Speaker 2: But I don't know for sure.
• 1:09:50
  Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, I'm almost thinking of the O'Reilly auto parts.
• 1:09:55
  Speaker 2: I was like, oh, oh, oh, oh, zem big.
• 1:09:59
  Speaker 1: If you guys know the O'Reilly auto parts or is
• 1:10:01
  Speaker 1: that only a thing up in Boston? Oh oh oh O'Reilly.
• 1:10:06
  Speaker 1: I don't even know what the ozepic song is, but
• 1:10:10
  Speaker 1: all I can think of is the O'Reilly Auto Parts,
• 1:10:13
  Speaker 1: Auto Parts, the fake move on Duke with the low
• 1:10:17
  Speaker 1: limits to jump back on Georgia Tech with the higher limits.
• 1:10:20
  Speaker 1: That might be that might be the case interesting because
• 1:10:23
  Speaker 1: Georgia Tech is uh you know, I mean you think
• 1:10:26
  Speaker 1: that Georgia Tech would be a very heavily public side
• 1:10:29
  Speaker 1: this week, So I mean, the professionals are not always
• 1:10:32
  Speaker 1: gonna be opposite the public. I haven't really dug into
• 1:10:34
  Speaker 1: that game much yet, so I'm gonna talk about that
• 1:10:36
  Speaker 1: game tonight, most likely because it is a big enough
• 1:10:40
  Speaker 1: game that it will be one of the ones I
• 1:10:41
  Speaker 1: talk about tonight. So figure it out. Uh So some
• 1:10:44
  Speaker 1: extra info there, Thanks guys for hanging out. That's gonna
• 1:10:46
  Speaker 1: do it. Learn it Toad on Twitter, Learn it Tode
• 1:10:48
  Speaker 1: on Instagram. Better off Dead, like, subscribe to the channel here.
• 1:10:52
  Speaker 1: Let's get some more views on this thing, man, Let's
• 1:10:54
  Speaker 1: keep going. Man, I want to monetize this thing. Let's
• 1:10:56
  Speaker 1: get some super chats going on. Maybe have some paywalled streams.
• 1:11:01
  Speaker 1: That would be cool, because I do have a Patreon
• 1:11:03
  Speaker 1: Patreon dot com.
• 1:11:04
  Speaker 2: Learn to total.
• 1:11:04
  Speaker 1: Though it's all yuke content behind the paywall, you can
• 1:11:07
  Speaker 1: go to covered in yuke My yuke channel on YouTube
• 1:11:10
  Speaker 1: and see them my yuke stuff there. I'm one you
• 1:11:14
  Speaker 1: cover behind there right now, and I'm multiple behind on
• 1:11:16
  Speaker 1: the Patreon so and I have to fix that.
• 1:11:18
  Speaker 2: There's a Patreon.
• 1:11:20
  Speaker 1: Yuke feed there and prioritize requests and of course better
• 1:11:23
  Speaker 1: off dead run audio as well.
• 1:11:25
  Speaker 2: So like it subscribe there or not like it subscribe?
• 1:11:28
  Speaker 2: But what am my? What do I talking about?
• 1:11:30
  Speaker 1: We'll do whatever you can on the audio platforms. Give
• 1:11:33
  Speaker 1: me a review and listen. I mean that all that
• 1:11:35
  Speaker 1: helps me out on the audio I we've been getting
• 1:11:37
  Speaker 1: bigger audio numbers. I mean they're very small still, but
• 1:11:40
  Speaker 1: they're increasing. So let's keep it going. We've been on
• 1:11:43
  Speaker 1: a nice run. I want to keep this run going, man,
• 1:11:45
  Speaker 1: I don't want it to ever end. But you know,
• 1:11:47
  Speaker 1: inbedding you're gonna have major down swings too, so which
• 1:11:51
  Speaker 1: is never a fun time. But hopefully you can avoid
• 1:11:53
  Speaker 1: having like the really bad ones. It can continue to
• 1:11:56
  Speaker 1: just be consistent, grind. Let's get it done. Let's get
• 1:11:59
  Speaker 1: some wins these plays today. That's gonna do it, man.
• 1:12:02
  Speaker 1: I appreciate it. Thanks everybody for hanging out. Sob Dirty
• 1:12:05
  Speaker 1: Sock Ben Jeffrey Stacks did I get everybody. I want
• 1:12:10
  Speaker 1: to get enough listeners here they are viewers that I
• 1:12:13
  Speaker 1: can't even do that anymore.
• 1:12:14
  Speaker 2: But thanks guys, I appreciate it.
• 1:12:16
  Speaker 1: I'll be back tonight around midnight Eastern for the College
• 1:12:19
  Speaker 1: Football Show as usual. We're gonna definitely have at least
• 1:12:22
  Speaker 1: I would say three more plays. I mean, I have
• 1:12:25
  Speaker 1: to like start digging in handicapping it more seriously, but
• 1:12:29
  Speaker 1: I have a few plays that are almost definitive at
• 1:12:33
  Speaker 1: this point, so we'll look and we'll see what happens.
• 1:12:36
  Speaker 2: That'll be tonight. Peace out until then, man,